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verobatto · 3 years

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Destiel Chronicles

Vol. XCI

It was a love story from the very beginning.

Breaking Walls (Part. II)

(12x22)

Hello my friends! We are about to finish the metas from season 12.

This time we will talk about Leader!Sam and the Foreshadow of Healing!Dean from season 14.

Trapped

The episode opens with Sam, Dean and Toni locked inside the bunker, trying desperately to find a way out.

The curious point of it, is that they will try a spell to break free...

SAM: Seems like pretty basic ingredients. Nothing we don't already have. Oh. (...) The mechanisms “must be anointed with the blood of virgins.” (...) I mean, I've read half a dozen purification rituals in the last hour. If we used one of those on – on our blood...

DEAN: Then what? Revirginize it?

SAM: Maybe.

TONI: So we purify the blood, then do the spell.

Focusing on the symbolism here, first of all, the bunker becoming a trap, and the boys trying to scape from it, is a foreshadow of Dean trapped in his own body, possesed by AU!Michael. But then the spell they choose, need purity, virginity, clean blood.

Purity will be a relevant point in season 14 as the goal searched for AU!Michael and as a recalling to Purgatory, foreshadowing Purgatory 2.0 in season 15.

So when Toni says WE PURIFY THE BLOOD AND THEN DO THE SPELL, she's giving us the prelude for Healing!Dean in season 14. The path Dean will take to purify his soul, to really grow after being possesed, and facing himself. He will have to find his own in once to break free from Michael, and his emotional prison.

While talking about the way Dean had pictured his death, this is the face he made when they mentioned "blaze of glory"

Gif credit @jaredandjensen

Which is not the face you would do if you really wanted to die of that. Dean is, at this point, as he was in season 10, considering his options, he is growing up and the blasting idea of die as "blaze of glory" is not what he really wants for himself.

When we heard his confession in season 10 and then we saw him meeting Jesse and Cesar in Season 11, we can infer what's in his heart. What he really wants. Curiously, the topic of season 14.

The explosion Dean made on the wall to break free, is a symbolic representation of the big turning point in his life when he lost Castiel.

Breaking down the walls

The mention of Jericho at the beginning of the episode refers to "break down the walls".

Jericho's battle, described by the bible, was the first battle israelites to conquer Canaan. Jericho was powerfully guarded by wall, they were able to break down in the seventh day of the battle.

What this has to do with this episode? Well. Is an episode that shows us a lot of wall that fall and break down. First of all, the bunker becoming a prison, Dean broke the wall. Now is time to break emotional/psychological wall: when he gets inside Mary's mind, trying to reach her through a very emotional speech, he will be breaking those walls, and at the same time, he will be foreshadowing Cas and Sam getting inside his head to reach him, in his emotional prison in 14x09.

Dean reached Mary through family love, but it was necessary two kind of loves to break Dean's walls: Sam (family love) and Cas (romantic love) in season 14.

The speech Dean gave to his mom to reach her is the self knowledge about his traumas.

And because is a Berens episode, we have the parallels between scenes, to show us a message.

In one scene we have Sam trying to break down the walls of British Man of Letters to defeat them, guiding a team of hunters, foreshadowing his leadership in season 14.

And in the other scene, we have Dean trying to break down his mom's walls from her emotional prison.

Bot scenes interrelated with the profound meaning that will have Dean's possesion by AU!Michael.

The way Dean's speech to reach his mother is a reflection of his own self, is the perfect philosophical path he will take in season 14: Self discovering, self acceptance.

So, we can infer that the parallel between Sam's battle against BMoL is a reflection of Dean's battle to reach his mother, but at the same time, Dean's future inner battle to break free from his emotional prison.

Sam defeats and kills the head of BMoL, releasing the american hunter's from her. Just like Dean will release his mother from the mental control. And just like Dean will break free from his emotional prison in season 14.

Dean's self aknowledgment of his traumas

When Dean arrives to his mother's mind, he finds her younger, taking care of him and Sam before she died. Is a perfect (fake) world her own mind had created to keep her away from the reality, because the reality hurts. This is the perfect parallel to 14x09, when Sam and CAS find Dean in the Rocky's bar.

DEAN: Look, I know that they messed with your head, okay? I know it feels better in here. It feels safer. (...) Mom, look at me. (...) You're choosing this.

Dean is aware his mother is trapped in her own mind, her own emotional prison. That's not real. This way he is mourning his childhood's mother too. Because he faces her, and he tries to drag her back to what she is now.

DEAN: You promised you'd keep me safe. And then you make a deal with Azazel. Yeah, it saved Dad's life, but I'll tell you something else that happened. Because on November 2, 1983, old Yellow Eyes came waltzing in to Sammy's room, because of your deal. (Mary turns abruptly and walks past Dean to Sam’s crib in the living room) You left us. Alone. 'Cause Dad was just a shell. His perfect wife? Gone. Our perfect Mom, the perfect family... was gone.

Okay, i will make a cut here. When Dean starts the speech that will make Mary to break free, he starts saying YOU PROMISE ME YOU'D KEEP ME SAFE. He's talking about him, here, that's why I said that in this same speech Dean Winchester finds himself, his traumas, as the begining of his healing journey. Then, he narrates the big scene that changed his life forever. That day he went from a normal kid to have a hard life. YOU LEFT US is pointing at the demand to his mother, the empty space that must be filled (by Dean). Something he had in his heart, burried. Is te request of that little 4 years old kid. DAD WAS JUST A SHELL is also demanding to John Winchester for not be for them as he should. He was a shell, empty spot it must be filled. (By Dean). The perfect wife and mom doesn't exist, it was a fantasy Dean kept in his mind, it was the image he had of Mary Winchester. The image of the little boy. The perfect family, gone. Remarks the mourn Dean is doing, as an exercise while talking to his mother.

Gif set credit @littlehobbit13

Dean's aknowledgment of his role in Sam's life brings him sorrow and pain, because as he will continue saying, he feels he failed.

DEAN: And that wasn't fair. And I couldn't do it. And you wanna know what that was like?

They killed the girl that he loved. He got possessed by Lucifer. They tortured him in Hell. And he lost his soul. His soul. All because of you. All of it was because of you.

Even when Dean is taking all of the bad things that happened to Sam on his back, he shows his mother she started it all. But look how Dean carries with all these curses.

DEAN: I hate you. I hate you. And I love you. 'Cause I can't – I can't help it. You're my Mom. And I understand...'cause I have made deals to save the ones I love more than once. I forgive you. I forgive you. For all of it. Everything.

Okay, this is very deep. First of all, we have Dean starting his ILY journey right here. The firsts words are said by his innocent heart, the 4 years old kid is talking here: I HATE YOU AND I LOVE YOU, is the duality of his feelings, his deep fears, and his repressed emotions. He hates his mother Because he had to go through all of that, and because Sammy had to go through all of that because of her mistakes. So, as the child he was once, he says I HATE YOU AND I LOVE YOU, BECAUSE YOU ARE MY MOM. Then, it comes the grown up man talking, as an adult, Dean is able to understand and forgive Mary's mistakes. Now that he is a man, he can connect with his mother's errors. And he is able to forgive her, reaching that peace he needed in his heart with her and with himself.

DEAN: On the other side of this, we can start over, okay? You, me, Sam. We can get it right this time. But I need you to fight. Right now, I need you to fight. I need you – I need you to look at me, Mom. I need you to really look at me and see me. Mom, I need you to see me. Please.

This, this is huge. Why? Because is a parallel to the mixtape scene. Look how Dean mentions 'YOU, ME, SAM', there's not doubt, not head tilting, no regrets as it was in the mixtape scene, why? Because there's no doubts Dean is talking about FAMILY, and not RANTIC LOVE HERE. In the mixtape scene he puts Sam as a shield, because he needed to protect himself from his own feelings YOU, ME (CAS/DEAN) it wouldeant JUST CAS AND HIM, THE TWP OF THEM, ROMANCE. GAY. But putting Sam there, he turns that into FAMILY. Now, there's not doubts in this scene, because Dean is talking about family. There's not shield needed. Family: YOU, ME, SAM. In both scenes he is asking for a new beginning, work toge as a family. But in the mixtape scene there was this romantic tension giving it an all different meaning.

When Dean asks his mom to really look at him, is the way he will bring her back to reality. Because the grown up man in front of h is the real one, his real son. The same will happen with Dean being possesed by AU!Michael, in which Dean will be able to see himself as he really is.

To Conclude:

This episode was full of symbolism, but the main topic was how to break walls, emotional walls, as a prelude to season 14, in which we will have Healing!Dean and Leader!Sam.

Hope you like this meta, see you in the next one, will be the last from season 12!

Tagging @magnificent-winged-beast @emblue-sparks @weird-dorky-little-d @michyribeiro @whyjm @legendary-destiel @a-bit-of-influence @thatwitchydestielfan @misha-moose-dean-burger-lover @lykanyouko @evvvissticante @savannadarkbaby @dea-stiel @poorreputation @bre95611 @thewolfathedoor @charlottemanchmal @neii3n @deathswaywardson @followyourenergy @dean-is-bi-till-i-die @hekatelilith-blog @avidbkwrm @anarchiana @dickpuncher365 @vampyrosa @authorsararayne @mybonsai1976 @love-neve-dies @dustythewind @wayward-winchester67 @angelwithashotgunandtrenchcoat @trashblackrainbow @deeutdutdutdoh @destiel-shipper-11 @larrem88 @charmedbycastiel @ran-savant @little-crazy-misha-minion @samoosetheshipper

@shadows-and-padlocked-hearts @mishtho @dancingtuesdaymorning @nerditoutwithbooks @mikennacac73 @justmeand-myinsight @idontwantpeopletoknowmyname @teddybeardoctor @pepevons @helevetica @isthisdestiel @dizzypinwheel @jawnlockwinchester @horsez2 @qanelyytha

@destielle @spnsmile @shippsblog @robot-feels @superlock-in-the-tardis @superduckbatrebel @2musiclover2 @madronasky @anon-non2 @cea1996 @lisafu02 @asphodelesauvage @destiels-canonahhhhhhhhhh

If you want to be added or removed from this list, just let me know.

If you wanna read the previous metas from this season, here you have the links:

Vol. LXXV, LXXVI, LXXVII, LXXVIII, LXXIX, LXXX, LXXXI, LXXXII, LXXXIII, LXXXIV, LXXXV, LXXXVI, LXXXVII, LXXXVIII, LXXXIX, XC.

Buenos Aires, December 6th 2020, 6:59 PM

#destiel #destiel chronicles #destiel meta #supernatural meta #season 12 meta #vol. XCI

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terrancedkennedy · 7 years

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The Trump Trade is Dead...all hail the Xi Trade

With all of the fuss around yesterday’s Comey testimony, I thought it would be a good time to have a look at the “Trump trades” from the beginning of the year. The charts will show that, as in the pic above, despite continued bluster and gesticulating, the “Trump Trade” has given way to the “Xi Trade”.

After the election, the big one was “Trumpflation.” The idea was that Trump is going to spend a ton of money on infrastructure and defense, leading to more bond supply, higher deficits, higher term premiums and higher inflation. This lead to an acceleration in global growth expectations, pushing inflation expectations higher around the world.

Since November, 5y5y US breakevens have been trending lower consistently. EUR 5y5y breaks took longer to reach recent highs and have been more reluctant to retrace given a better run of economic data. US breaks have retraced the whole move higher since the election, while EUR breaks are still about 10bps off those levels.

Real yields have a case of the “suppo-sta’s”. They were suppos-sta go higher.

Nominal yields have bull flattened, indicating a quick end to the Fed’s tightening cycle--not exactly a vote of confidence in Trump’s ability to increase growth rates in the US.

Not much to pick from between 10y UST (blue) and the 10y UST/Bund spread (orange).

We were also told USD would stay strong since Trump had finally solved the growth riddle, simply by promising to spend a ton of money to spur domestic demand and business investment. EUR and JPY depreciated hand-in-hand, but JPY has gone sideways while EUR has been ripping. Jens Nordvig, head of Exante Data and former Nomura FX guru, believes there has been a fundamental turn in capital flows back towards Europe. This ties out to my intuition--in 2016 capital fled Europe due to QE and low growth expectations. Now growth has picked up (a little bit, anyway), and the Trump demand resurgence has been exposed as a lot of hot air. The German export powerhouse flexes its muscle again.

The most famous blast zone of Trump risk was usd/mxn and Mex rates. The peso fell 6% on the day after the election, and after coming back modestly into year end, melted down completely shortly after New Year’s when Trump unleashed a Twitter bomb suggesting he would implement a “border tax” on Mexican auto imports and withdraw from NAFTA. MXN moved opposite of EMFX at large, which was recovering nicely.

MXN (red) vs. EMFX (purple, inverted so it moves the same direction as MXN)

This is a chart of the residuals of usd/mxn vs. the EMFX Index--higher figures indicate MXN is cheap relative to the regression. This shows how MXN has not only closed the gap from November outright but also unwound all of the underperformance relative to the rest of EM complex.

Similarly, TIIE got demolished by Banxico aggressively hiking rates to defend the peso or financial stability, the locals' paranoia about Trump, and corporates with USD liabilities crushing offers in the cross-currency market, leaving banks as huge payers into a market with no bid.

In late February, Banxico implemented measures to backstop the peso and stabilize rates. Those measures combined with very attractive real and nominal forward rates convinced foreigners to buy duration, and local pension funds chased yields lower after moving aggressively into short duration and linkers in a futile attempt to shield themselves from the selloff in rates. These accounts extended duration as Banxico continued to hike and global curves flattened. 2x10 TIIE officially at zero….Bottom line: the herd turned.

Next was stocks. “Risk on!” Came the cry from equity desks around the world. More spending! Lower corporate taxes! Offshore corporate profits repatriation! Business confidence! Deregulation! Financials and oil/gas stocks led the way, thankful that one of their own was finally back in the White House.

Since the beginning of the year financials (XLF) have chopped around while oil/gas stocks (XOI) have gotten hammered by the combo of a slothful, inept Trump administration and lower oil prices.

Similarly, small cap stocks stood strong after the election--Trump was going to cut taxes, regulate, cancel Obamacare, etc. etc. Sorry, Charlie.

Alright, but the S&P had a great run after the election--why hasn’t it given back any of its gains? The sectors that underperformed in November and December have reversed course--Health Care (XLV), and here’s the big one--technology (XCI). The 20% gain in tech has plugged the hole in the index left by the sectors that led the big move higher late last year. Thank you, Mr. Beta.

And lastly from the equity world, there was Trump’s mantra borrowed from populist windbags the world around, “Putting America First.” A funny thing happened on the way to autarky--an avalanche of money flowed into emerging market equities.

Why the reversal? Copper prices rocketed higher after the election because Trump was going to build more stuff. Here’s one that has held up, but credit goes not to Trump but to the resurgence in EM growth and Chinese demand--the Xi Trade.

Copper (HG1)

Lastly, there is credit. IG spreads were already recovering after the brutal start to 2016 and the shock from Brexit. They never really took much of a breather, just continued to grind tighter and tighter.

Vol played a significant role in this as well--was the utter destruction of vol one of his campaign promises? IG implied vol has clattered through the lows. Like tech stocks leading the S&P higher, this is credit traders juicing coupons and eating their seed corn.

By contrast S&P vol is certainly historically low but hasn’t seen the steep decline of bond and credit vol.

Where does that leave us? I try to avoid crystal ball stuff but here’s how I see it:

Trump and the US political scene at large: I think he’s done politically--and taken together, the market agrees. Trump is going to be fighting with Congress, Comey and Muller until the GOP majorities get liquidated in the mid-terms. After that his agenda is over, and Democrats will be circling like sharks around a wounded tuna.

Nominal rates and breaks have priced fiscal stimulus at zero, which close to the right price given the way Trump has frittered away his modest political capital. But the flattening of the curve and unwinding of hikes by the FOMC beyond this year shows markets are somewhat complacent about inflation picking up on its own accord. That being said, don’t hold your breath.

EUR can continue to benefit from a sea change in capital flows after several years of outflows.

Mexico: We come here today to bury the “NAFTA withdrawal” trade. Again, if Trump could have put together a coalition of domestic manufactuers, unions, and xenophobes to rip up the treaty, he missed his chance. The TIIE curve will invert as growth stagnates and the inflation spike fades, but Banxico will be loathe to cut rates too quickly ahead of the 2018 election. Election risk will become salient around the end of the year when polls should start to become more reliable as it becomes clear who PRI and PAN will run against AMLO, but Trump’s ham-handed political circus will take some of the air out of AMLO’s campaign.

Stocks--Can’t stop the Feeling! Just dance, dance, dance…. Seriously, corporate profits will have to “show me the money” to keep this train rolling, but that hasn’t stopped the market before. This probably would have gotten me fired as an equity manager but I believe value is indicative of future returns--and I can’t see how this chart and current demographic and geopolitical trends end in a reasonable return on risk capital, unless 1929, 1966, and 2000 were really good times to buy stocks.

IG, HG, vol--see above. Taken together, real money is getting squeezed and is increasing risk by buying tech, high yield, selling vol etc. to keep the ball rolling. The longer it goes on, the smaller the exit door gets.

EUR, DXY, EM--the prior two bullets notwithstanding, I think the flows can keep going--I prefer EM rates over EMFX--but I’ll want the hedges I discussed in Wednesday’s post in my back pocket. The resilient copper chart illustrates global demand is still stronger than it was last year. This is the new paradigm for 2017….the Xi Trade.

0 notes

peterlharden · 7 years

Text

The Trump Trade is Dead...all hail the Xi Trade

Real yields have a case of the “suppo-sta’s”. They were suppos-sta go higher.

Nominal yields have bull flattened, indicating a quick end to the Fed’s tightening cycle--not exactly a vote of confidence in Trump’s ability to increase growth rates in the US.

Not much to pick from between 10y UST (blue) and the 10y UST/Bund spread (orange).

MXN (red) vs. EMFX (purple, inverted so it moves the same direction as MXN)

Since the beginning of the year financials (XLF) have chopped around while oil/gas stocks (XOI) have gotten hammered by the combo of a slothful, inept Trump administration and lower oil prices.

Similarly, small cap stocks stood strong after the election--Trump was going to cut taxes, regulate, cancel Obamacare, etc. etc. Sorry, Charlie.

Copper (HG1)

By contrast S&P vol is certainly historically low but hasn’t seen the steep decline of bond and credit vol.

Where does that leave us? I try to avoid crystal ball stuff but here’s how I see it:

EUR can continue to benefit from a sea change in capital flows after several years of outflows.

0 notes