Florida:the more north you go, the more south it gets.
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We looked inside some of the posts by somethingusefulfromflorida and here's what we found interesting.
Inside last 20 posts
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1952: no incumbent, challenging party wins
1956: incumbent wins
1960: no incumbent, challenging party wins
1964: incumbent wins
1968: no incumbent, challenging party wins
1972: incumbent wins
1976: incumbent loses
1980: incumbent loses
1984: incumbent wins
1988: no incumbent, incumbent party wins
1992: incumbent loses
1996: incumbent wins
2000: no incumbent, challenging party "wins"
2004: incumbent wins
2008: no incumbent, challenging party wins
2012: incumbent wins
2016: no incumbent, challenging party "wins"
2020: incumbent loses
2024: TBD
Broken down
7/18 incumbent wins (38.89%)
4/18 incumbent loses (22.22%)
4/18 incumbent party loses (22.22%)
2/18 incumbent party wins the popular vote, loses the electoral college (11.11%)
1/18 incumbent party wins (5.56%)
Which means
10/18 the challenging party takes power (55.56%)
8/18 the incumbent party stays in power (44.44%)
Contrary to popular belief, since the passage of the 22nd Amendment it is more likely for an incumbent party to lose than to win. America is constantly in flux.
If an incumbent runs, they have a 7/11 (63.63%) chance of winning, but if they don't run then their party has a 6/7 (85.71%) chance of losing.
If Joe Biden runs in 2024, he'll probably win. If he doesn't, then Kamala Harris will probably lose.
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can I just say that I absolutely love Carmelita Spats…
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For Gods sake, stop reading it!
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Forbidden texts, Pablo Martinez
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-Captain Lou “Mario” Albano
this might be an “unpopular opinion” but the purpose of an on ramp is to have time to safely accelerate to match the speed of traffic and if you refuse to do so you are a ‘safety hazard’ and you’re ‘going to hell before you die’
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Hkxhkhwassont
Beautiful
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Green solution, no pesticides
Yummy sky raisins 
(via)
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It has zero nutrients, but the thought of getting to meet Zack and Cody gives you the will to live
the human body can survive on strawberry danimals alone for up to eight weeks
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He wears the frog clip like an earring
what if wheatley got a hard light body like in blue sky but it accounted for his height and lack of features as a core and just generated this
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Binglet?
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he is just standing there
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it cracks me up how fandom still sometimes mistakes han solo for like…. a cool bad boy, but literally everyone in the actual star wars universe knows the truth. even fucking snoke…. snoke…..who didn’t have the perception to realize when he was Totally about to Get Murdered….. even he can look at han solo’s only son and be like “you’re fucked, kid. your dad was the nicest man in space. a slightly prickly teddy bear with a marshmallow center. a pushover. his vest pockets? full of ice cream money. if you’ve got a mean bone in your body, you got it from your terrifying mother”
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Werner herzog
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Hamilton: he aimed his pistol at the sky!
tupac and biggie shot each other at the same time
Tupac died 6 months before Biggie did but I’m gonna let you have your theory
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It should have been me... IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN ME!
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Keep us posted on the results
I’m gonna chug a whole carton of soy milk and consume an entire bottle of alex jones big boy supplements just to see what happens.
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If you catch him in a bear trap, do you give him a saw you cut his leg off, or do you end it then and there?
Literally nothing makes me happier than the idea of hunting Elon Musk for sport. I am completely serious. The thought actively brings joy to my day.
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Using ambien and not falling asleep is....worrying to say the least
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I don’t think I’ve ever seen a movie that captures the claustrophobia of a hole-in-the-wall apartment. Like, even when a character is supposed to be living in a squalid broom closet, the set always has to be big enough for cameras and crew to move around in, making. It decently sized
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TIL the Pledge of Allegiance was drafted as a way to sell more flags by putting one in every classroom
via reddit.com
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♪♫Some people wait a lifetime for a moment like this♫♪
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Incumbency
1788: office established
1792: incumbent re-elected
1796: incumbent didn't run
1800: incumbent defeated
1804: incumbent re-elected
1808: incumbent didn't run
1812: incumbent re-elected
1816: incumbent didn't run
1820: incumbent re-elected
1824: incumbent didn't run
1828: incumbent defeated
1832: incumbent re-elected
1836: incumbent didn't run
1840: incumbent defeated
1844: incumbent didn't run (he ran, but dropped out)
1848: incumbent didn't run
1852: incumbent primaried
1856: incumbent primaried
1860: incumbent didn't run
1864: incumbent re-elected
1868: incumbent primaried
1872: incumbent re-elected
1876: incumbent didn't run
1880: incumbent didn't run
1884: incumbent primaried
1888: incumbent won popular vote, lost electoral college
1892: incumbent defeated
1896: incumbent didn't run
1900: incumbent re-elected
1904: incumbent re-elected
1908: incumbent didn't run
1912: incumbent defeated
1916: incumbent re-elected
1920: incumbent didn't run
1924: incumbent re-elected
1928: incumbent didn't run
1932: incumbent defeated
1936: incumbent re-elected
1940: incumbent re-elected
1944: incumbent re-elected
1948: incumbent re-elected
1952: incumbent didn't run [22nd amendment in effect; all future incumbents limited to two terms only]
1956: incumbent re-elected
1960: no incumbent
1964: incumbent re-elected
1968: incumbent didn't run
1972: incumbent re-elected
1976: incumbent defeated
1980: incumbent defeated
1984: incumbent re-elected
1988: no incumbent
1992: incumbent defeated
1996: incumbent re-elected
2000: no incumbent
2004: incumbent re-elected
2008: no incumbent
2012: incumbent re-elected
2016: no incumbent
2020: incumbent defeated
2024: TBD
Since the 22nd Amendment came into force in 1951, there have been 18 presidential elections.
The incumbent won 7/18
The incumbent lost 4/18
The incumbent chose not to run 2/18
There was no incumbent 5/18
Joe Biden is very likely to run for re-election in 2024; no president has died of natural causes in office since FDR in 1945, no president has been killed since JFK in 1963, no president has chosen not to run since LBJ in 1968, and no president has resigned since Nixon in 1974. Statistically, Biden will be the Democratic nominee, giving him 7/11 odds of defeating whichever candidate the Republicans put up.
In both instances the incumbent chose not to win, the opposition party retook the White House (Eisenhower in 1952 and Nixon in 1968)
The opposition party also won 4* out of 5 elections where there was no eligible incumbent (Kennedy in 1960, Bush Jr in 2000*, Obama in 2008, and Trump in 2016)
*by all rights Bush Jr lost the 2000 election, but his brother was governor of Florida and stopped the federally mandated recount, and the 5-4 conservative Supreme Court gave it to him even though he lost the poplar vote
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