#Kyrsten Sinema: Voters fuck off

[dhaaruni]

Here's a normal complaint about Kyrsten Sinema: She's a terrible politician who is terrible at making allies and is making her constituents very, very angry. They thought they were electing a brave woman who was willing to speak truth to power and stand up for the weak, but found out she's just an obstructionist and a contrarian.

Yeah that's valid.

That being said, she was very moderate in the House too so I'm not sure why people are super surprised by her being moderate now, her seat was previously held by Jeff Flake (whose son I went on a date with, fun fact!), and she had to win a LOT more crossover Ducey voters than Kelly had to win Trump voters, about 60,000 people voted for Ducey-Sinema, so I sort of get why she's *like this*. And, I think it's insane that Kelly skates by with zero criticism when he never takes a stance one way or another but like, that's the benefit of shutting up I guess lol.

I agree that her pissing off her Democratic colleagues and constituents is a bad move though. But, she's not up until 2024, so we'll see who even remembers what's happening now in 2021 by then, and until that point, resisters should calm the fuck down about primarying Sinema and get on electing Dems in WI/PA/NC and also OH/FL so we have a sizable majority and don't have to rely on Manchin and Sinema.

#answered #anonymous #politics

[arlingtonpark]

2018 Midterm Election Primer

Ladies and gentlemen, Armageddon is upon us.

I am of course referring to the 2018 Midterms, the 116th such elections to be held under the current Constitution.

It’s been a long way since this election cycle started. Democrats were so assured of victory in 2016. Indeed, most Americans probably thought Clinton would win.  

Donald Trump’s rather flukey victory was attributable to a lot of factors. Hillary Clinton’s general unpopularity, which to some extent had a basis in sexism; the racialization of American politics, which Trump, to his credit, adeptly took advantage of; the refusal of Republican politicians to abandon Trump in the face of his many outrages; and the infamous Comey Letter.

And Clinton’s forsaking of Waukesha County.

Trump’s victory was a catalyzing moment for the American left, with women, and especially white, suburban women, traditionally a GOP leaning group, mobilizing in opposition to Trump’s presidency. The Women’s March, later joined by the #metoo movement, have marked an inflection point in female activism. There has been an unprecedented number of women running for public office this election cycle. Many of these women were compelled to run by the trauma of 2016 (never forget) and naturally, because the Democratic Party is the party in opposition to Trump, they overwhelmingly chose to run as Democrats.

Not counting incumbents, so in other words only looking at races where no candidate was favored to win the nomination, the Democratic Party has nominated women to be their standard bearer in half of all elections for the House of Representatives. In this small sliver of the political universe we have gender parity.

That has never happened before.

The 116th Congress, to be elected this November, will be the first one with a fourth of its membership being women. This will represent a huge increase from the current proportion, which is about one fifth.

However, this surge in female activism has been mostly limited to the Democratic Party. The Republicans have seen a much more limited increase in female candidacies.

It’s no secret to anyone paying attention that the Democrats are the party of women and minorities and the Republicans are the party of white men. In 2018 we saw an acceleration of this trend. As of this writing, 33% of Democratic members of the House are women. Only 9% of Republican House members are women. 37% of Democratic House members are nonwhite. 5% of Republican House members are nonwhite. These differences will only grow after 2018.

Joe Crowley and Mike Capuano, both white, male Democrats, were not renominated by the party and were replaced by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley, both women of color, respectively. Kristi Noem and Marsha Blackburn, both female Republicans, opted to leave the House to run for higher office and Dusty Johnson and Mark Green, both men, were respectively nominated to replace them.

As Dave Wasserman put it, House Democrats are 41% white men and falling. House Republicans are 85% white men and rising.

The parties will only continue to grow further and further apart.

The House of Representatives.

The marquee race on Election night will be the drive to 218. Whichever party gets over that number will (at least nominally) control the House of Representatives.

As of now, the Democrats are favored five times out of six to win the majority of seats. That’s very good, but there is still a one in six chance Republicans remain in power. The forecast models being used to predict the outcome of the election are based, in part, on polling. Polls are not perfect; it is not uncommon for them to be off by 2-3 percentage points.

If the polls are underestimating Republicans by 2-3 percentage points, then the GOP has a solid chance of retaining the majority. This would happen on the backs of numerous races being won by less than a two percentage margin or so.

Conversely, if it turns out the polls are overestimating Republicans (and yes, a 15% chance of victory could actually be an overestimation) by 2-3 percentage points, then the GOP will get fucking slaughtered on 11/6. In this scenario the Democrats could win over 50 seats. They only need 23 to win.  

There’s an equal chance that either scenario happens.

Most gains by the Democrats will be concentrated among suburban areas, a sign of the GOP’s collapse among suburban voters.

The number of competitive seats has greatly expanded over time. Democrats are competitive in districts such as Virginia’s 5th, North Carolina’s 9th, and Michigan’s 8th. This was unthinkable a year ago.

If the Democrats retake the House it is unlikely they will move to impeach Trump immediately. When Republicans tried to impeach Bill Clinton there was a backlash amongst the people against them. People thought they were being too hasty. Democrats will try to avoid that.

But don’t worry. Democrats fully intend on riding Trump’s ass and in more ways than you can imagine. The duty of the House is to oversee the executive branch, a duty Republicans have shirked. If the Democrats take control you can bet there will be innumerable investigations into reports of impropriety in the Trump administration.

And Nancy Pelosi?

If Republicans keep control she’s dead. She’s deader than Tony Bennett. She’ll be ousted from power and replaced by someone else. Who that’ll be, I don’t know. Joe Crowley was the obvious replacement but he’s dead too, now. There’s really no clear replacement.

Even if the Democrats take control, Pelosi isn’t a lock for the Speakership. Many Democratic candidates are running on a promise of not supporting her. If there’s only a slim Democratic majority, there may not be enough Pelosi Democrats to get her the Speakership. Things could get messy next January.

 The Senate.

The Senate is a mirror image of the House. Republicans are favored five out of six times to have the majority after the election.

But the fact that it’s even this close is a miracle.

There are 24 Democrats running for reelection in 2018. Ten of them are trying to win in states that voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Five of them are running in states Trump won by over 15 percentage points.

If Clinton were President, Republicans could conceivably have picked up over 10 seats, a massive landslide victory for them. But now? They may not win any seats. That’s incredible.

Right now, Democrats may lose only one of their own: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who’s been polling behind her Republican opponent.

This loss will likely be offset, though, in Arizona, where Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is favored to replace Republican Jeff Flake, who is retiring.

To win the majority, Heitkamp will need to hang on in North Dakota and Sinema will need to win alongside Jacky Rosen, the Democrat running against Republican Senator Dean Heller in Nevada. That would give then the 51 seats they need for a majority. Unfortunately, Rosen has also fallen behind in the polls.

If Heitkamp or Rosen or both can’t pull through, they’ll need to get to 51 seats some other way, most likely by winning Texas and Tennessee…and it’s at this point I hope it becomes clear just how measly their chances are of winning.

In Indiana, Democrat Joe Donnelley is running for reelection and his strategy is to basically try and trick voters into thinking he’s the Republican. Donnelley is an accidental Senator; he only won because his Republican opponent was a moron who threw away the election.

The same holds true for Claire McCaskill, Missouri’s Democratic senator. She should have lost reelection in 2012, but was saved when her Republican opponent epically screwed himself. If you were around back then you probably remember it, actually.

The final race of note is Florida. The Democrat is Bill Nelson, who is a former astronaut. The Republican is Governor Rick Scott, who was fined over $1 billion for defrauding the federal government.

Even if the Democrats don’t win the majority now, keeping the Republicans at 51 seats will set them up to take the Senate later on down the line. 2020 and 2022 will feature election maps far more favorable to the Democrats than 2018.

But looking out even further into the future the Democratic Party’s Senate prospects are not looking good. It is only through sheer luck that they aren’t going to get slaughtered here. The 2018 map will be up for election again in 2024 and it is then that they’ll get slaughtered.

 Governors

The gaggle of 36 governor’s races are a mirror image of the Senate map, which is a mirror image of the House. It’s mirrors all the way down in this cycle! Most of the seats are held by Republicans and a lot of them are in states where Democrats have a chance to win. But unlike the Senate, they don’t have a favorable map to buoy themselves, which means they’re on a sinking ship without a lifeboat.

Democrats are favored to take governorships from the Republicans in Michigan, Illinois, Maine, Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida.

Florida!

That’s just bewildering. Florida is a swing state, all elections there are close. Yet Democrat Andrew Gillum, a black guy running on universal healthcare, is practically running away with the governorship!

And you want even more proof things are going well for Democrats?

Georgia is a toss-up. Yeah, that’s right, Democrat Stacey Abrams, another black candidate, is competitive against Republican Brian Kemp.

Republican governor Scott Walker is slightly favored to get his ass kicked in Wisconsin, which is karmic justice as far as union leaders are concerned since he’s been a thorn in their side for a while now.

Another competitive Republican state that shouldn’t be: Kansas. The old Republican governor, Sam Brownback, is like the captain of the Titanic, except imagine if Captain Smith drove the ship into the iceberg on purpose. Brownback’s policies have ruined the state and now his disciple, Kris Kobach, is trying to succeed him. Kobach is such a clown that several prominent Kansas Republicans have endorsed the Democrat, Laura Kelly.

Things are a bit complicated in Alaska. Bill Walker, the current governor, is not affiliated with any party, except he used to be a Democrat, and the Democrats chose to endorse him instead of nominating someone in the last election. Things didn’t go so smoothly this time, though. Democrats nominated Mark Begich to be governor and Walker chose to run for reelection anyway. This split the anti-Republican vote and cleared the way for Republican Dunleavey to hike his way to victory.

Most politicians would be too egomaniacal to see they can’t win and drop out, but not Bill Walker. He dropped out of the race and endorsed Begich, ironically proving he was the one who deserved to win the most. Now Dunleavy…is still favored to win. But it’s closer now. Yeah.

The truth is that Walker is just very unpopular. However much Alaskans are stereotyped as rugged mountainpeople, never forget their state is the only one in the country that gives every man, women, and child. literally. free. money. That’s why Walker wasn’t so popular. Because he cut back on the amount of free money he was giving away.

Alaska is only one of two bright spots for Republicans here. The other is New England. They have three governorships there and all three are favored to be reelected. These governors are more moderate (pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage, etc.) and they all work with Democrats to govern effectively. It is precisely because of this they will never be big with the national Republican Party.

I haven’t followed the Nevada race, but Nevada politico Jon Ralston describes Republican Adam Laxalt like he’s a douche who’s dating someone for their looks, so I hope he loses. He’s (barely) favored to win.

Ohio’s race is a toss-up between Mike DeWine and Richard Corduroy.

Winning all these governorships is important for Democrats because these governors will be around in 2021 when congressional districts are redrawn. Because those district maps have to be passed into law to take effect, the governors of most states have a veto over it. Republicans had a free hand in 2011 during the last redraw and they drew the maps to favor themselves. Having Democratic governors will be important to keeping the party from being drawn out.

 The Big Picture

The most important aspect of any given election is how it sets up the next election two years later. (The one constant in American politics is a torturously arduous struggle that never ends.) Which candidates win and which lose will be used to argue for one vision of the Democratic and Republican parties over the others. For example, if Andrew Gillum, a black man running on Bernie Sander’s platform, wins in Florida, then that will strengthen the case Sanders and his ilk are making for the path the Party needs to go down.

It’s possible a future President could be elected in 2018. Gillum and Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, have both been talked about as presidential candidates. Gavin Newsom, the Democratic candidate for Governor of California, has also had his name thrown around.

The best election night commentary is from the smart politicos on twitter. Seriously, these people know what they’re talking about and because it’s Twitter, there’ll be much snark. I’ll have a Twitter list ready by election night for anyone willing to follow it on Twitter.

Hope you all vote! :)

#politics #2018 elections #things you don't expect on tumblr