New on Sports Illustrated: COVID-19 Is Having an Impact on the Market for Veteran Contract Extensions
While Jamal Adams and Dak Prescott in the news, it's worth noting that uncertainty over the salary cap is clogging up the market. Plus, notes on Day 1 of the NFL's Quarterback Coaching Summit.
It’s Monday afternoon, let’s go …
• With Jamal Adams’s contract situation in the news, it’s certainly worth looking into how slow the pace of veteran extensions has been in general this offseason. Digging through it, I could find just three examples of guys getting big-time extensions with years left on their deals since America went into lockdown, without a trade being part of it (DeForest Buckner and Darius Slay got paid as part of trades). One was Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, another was Texans OT Laremy Tunsil and a third was Bills S Jordan Poyer (whose deal was done before things went really crazy). Meanwhile, contract-year stars like Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, Ronnie Stanley, Ryan Kelly, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, Keenan Allen, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, and, yes, Adams are waiting for theirs. So the natural question: Is this COVID-related? And the answer is yes. The looming revenue shortfall doesn’t just make cash an issue for some teams, it also makes projecting the cap a problem. If there are big losses in 2020, that means the league and union will have to borrow from future years to keep the 2021 cap level to this year, which could mean ramifications reaching into 2022 and ’23. You may remember back in 2010 and early ’11, teams were hesitant do long-term deals for guys because of salary cap uncertainty. Same thing, to a degree, this year. Which might mean a lot of guys waiting a while for deals. And that could add an interesting twist to the seasons of some teams.
• And that brings us to Dak Prescott, and how the uncertainty over the cap might make it tough to project how a deal at $40 million per season will be accounted for in the coming years. Let’s say he does a deal with flat cap numbers. And let’s say, absent the pandemic, the cap was going to be around $270 million in 2023, which may be conservative based on the expected influx of TV and broadcast money. Under those conditions, Prescott’s deal, then in its fourth year, would account for 14.8% of Dallas’s cap. Now, let’s say, the coronavirus impact knocks the cap number in 2023 down to $220 million. In that case, Prescott’s deal is accounting for 18.2% of the team’s cap. That’s a pretty massive difference, when you consider this is one of 53 contracts. And it doesn’t mean the Joneses won’t get Prescott done. But it does explain why it could complicate things for him, and the other 13 guys who are currently franchised.
• Speaking of that, Prescott became the ninth franchised player (and 10th tagged player, if you count Cardinals transitioned RB Kenyan Drake) to sign his tender. That leaves five guys unsigned in the group: Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett, Bengals WR A.J. Green, Chiefs DT Chris Jones, Jaguars DE Yannick Ngaukoe and Broncos S Justin Simmons. All the tagged guys have until July 15 to do deals. So what’s the difference for these five? They can wait until Week 1 to sign, if they’d like, without losing a dime, because they’re not under contract.
• I really enjoyed Day 1 of the NFL Quarterback Coaching Summit (a joint venture by the Black College Football Hall of the Fame and the NFL), which I wrote about in last week’s GamePlan, so here are some good tidbits. Titans coach Mike Vrabel was the first speaker, and he dove into his philosophy on leadership (“We will treat you the same as you treat the team”), and how to interview (he passed out iPads on his interviews, rather the traditional “book” that coaches keep) before explaining keys in assembling a staff. I thought maybe the most interesting part was how he said having diversity of race and background on hand was important, to give a staff the best chance of reaching every individual player on the roster. Also, he mentioned how it was important to support the ambitions of assistants, and that losing them to promotion “means you’re hiring the right people,” and he listed the trainer with the GM and owner among the most important relationships a head coach has. There was also this, on the idea of culture: “When you’re winning, culture is easy. … Culture is what you look like at the worst moment. I hope everyone has a good culture at 7-1, but what does it look like at 2-5?”
• Also great was a panel hosted by my buddy Steve Wyche of NFL Network, one that included Steelers owner Art Rooney II, Giants owner John Mara, former Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, Bucs coach Bruce Arians and Texans limited partner Javier Loya. Both owners acknowledged the trend toward offensive coaches, and it was interesting to hear Mara admit that he’d fallen victim to those sorts of things in the past. “A lot of us have fallen into that trap, looking at the Sean McVay, the Kyle Shanahan, and you think you’re just going to get the next one,” Mara said. “I look at the head coach now as more of a CEO. I don’t care if he’s an offensive play-caller or a defensive play-caller.” Rooney echoed the point, saying that looking at the Steelers’ stability, from Chuck Noll to Bill Cowher and now to Mike Tomlin, there has been a common thread. “The most important thing all three of them had in common, they’re all great communicators,” Rooney said. “If there was one thing we were always looking for in a head coach, it would be that.” Rooney also advocated for finding a way to slow down the process of coach hiring (it’s how he found Tomlin, even with legit candidates in house), though he added that he understood how competition for guys makes that idea difficult to implement.
• Arians, for his part, was passionate on the call. He said doing your job well, whatever that job might be at the moment, should come first, because that’s how you build respect among your peers. “Respect among your peers is the most important thing,” he continued. “I had respect among my peers, I didn’t give a damn if I got a job.” So what difference can that respect make? Arians recalled telling anyone who’d listen, on Vic Fangio, “If he’s not at the top of your list, you’re missing the boat.” Arians also pointed out how his very diverse staff is made up of a lot of guys he identified as potential coaches when he had them as players, which is something he hopes coaches get more aggressive doing. “These guys all played for me, so I had a long pool of guys I worked with,” Arians said. “You don’t hire strangers in my office, you hire guys I trust.”
• Another point of discussion was how narratives (i.e. hot candidates) can drive coaching searches. That’s where Newsome jumped in, explaining that the Ravens always keep lists of coaches of interest. “We create our own lists,” Newsome said. “We come to a collective agreement on the people we want to interview, and that’s based on the information we get when we talk to our area scouts, and our coaches and people around the league.” That, he mentioned, is how they found an Eagles special teams coach to be particularly intriguing. John Harbaugh’s been a pretty good hire.
• Sorry to sink the whole column into this—but it really was a pretty awesome deal, and there’s more coming Tuesday. Among the other parts of Monday’s festivities: Ex-Browns coach Hue Jackson with a detailed breakdown on the first 30 days on the job for a head coach; Saints assistant D.J. Williams on being a quality control coach; Stanford OC Tavita Pritchard on QB drill work; and Maryland OC Scottie Montgormery and Bucs OC Byron Leftwich on staff/coordinator dynamics. (I’ll try and get you some more info Tuesday on Twitter.)
• One thing from Falcons coach Dan Quinn, left over from this morning’s column, that I found particularly fascinating: He’s going to build all the possibilities he can think of for the fall of 2020 into his training camp schedule, and that means all of them. “What I do know is the teams that adjust the best are gonna be the ones that preform the best. Because what we’ve all seen is there’s been a lot of moving parts and things have changed, so there’s gonna be change during the season—players out due to COVID and all that,” Quinn said. “So during camp, when we do get together, we’ll have time where, and I’ll do it for myself first, OK, I’m out, or the playcaller’s out, where we keep showing them, here’s where adjustments have to take place, and we’re able to hit them, so we have contingency plans.” Pretty smart thinking there, and it’s not exactly hard to conjure a scenario where such a contingency plan might have to be enacted.
• The NFL re-opened its New York office on Monday. So if you want some good news on where all this is headed, there’s some for you. And, by the way, the Raiders opened their facility in Nevada, too, which means they’ve officially left California after spending their first 60 seasons in the nation’s most populous state.
• Question or comment? Email us.
June 23, 2020 at 05:12AM
COVID-19 Is Having an Impact on the Market for Veteran Contract Extensions
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[SF] The Countdown - manual cross post from r/HFY.
Julienne Wright sat in her shuttle, The Josephine, which was currently dead in space. A massive and decidedly intimidating ship had just disabled the Josephine with an EMP missile. Nearly every electronic on the shuttle was disabled, including her personal A.I., Donna. Julienne had been exploring sector 275 of the Centaurus arm, looking for other intelligent life with her partner, Gryrh. Gryrh was an Akalori, who were native to sector 270. They worked for the Diplomatic Intelligence Corps, scouting the edges of mapped space gathering information on the races they found for the Galactic United Senate.
“Waettari pirates. Wonderful.” She said out loud to no one. “Could be worse. At least I don’t have to worry about them bringing in backup.” The Waettari were known to be violently xenophobic, but the only beings they hated more were Waettari from other clans. “Let’s hope Gryrh doesn’t get caught, and he can reach the Kaku for assistance.”
Julienne did one last check of systems, and confirmed that everything, including life support, was down and would probably be that way for a while. She didn’t have the hours she would need to complete repairs. And without Donna, she couldn’t do half of the work anyway. She went to a false wall, tapped the release, but nothing happened. “Well duh, Julienne, think. EMP equals dead electronics.” She went to the toolkit, grabbed a prybar, and forced the panel open. Inside was something the civilian she pretended to be would never have. A military grade space suit.
She quickly put it on and was deeply grateful for the military grade electro-shielding that it was equipped with. The HUD came up, indicating suit integrity, remaining oxygen, power levels, her vitals, and ammo count. She turned on the scanner, looking for any other devices that were still functional. Other than one of her data chips that she handed out to friendly species she encountered and a couple of simple tools, there was nothing useful. “Hmm, that data chip could come in handy, at least.” “Suit, status of translator system?” The HUD displayed a message indicating the translator system was fully functional. “Oh, the strong silent type then. I can respect that, but a little company would have been nice.”
::THUD:: ::THUD:: THUD:: ::THUD:: The shuttle rocked violently with each impact. What the hell? Julienne thought as she was nearly thrown to the floor. The HUD displayed a notification that the shuttle had been hit with 4 electromagnetic harpoons. Julienne looked out the rear viewport. She had only two or three minutes until the Waettari ship reeled her in. She checked her combat suits various functions and smiled. A plan was forming.
She double-checked her suit seal, engaged her magnetic boots, wrapped her left arm around the closest ladder rung, and released the manual airlock, opening her shuttle to space. Once her shuttle finished depressurizing, she grabbed her standard space suit, inflated it, activated its life support systems, and threw it out the airlock to float away. Using the eye-tracking function of her combat suit, she activated the Scout module, and waited for her ship to be boarded.
Darkness gave way to light as her ship was pulled into a cargo bay. The sudden re-pressurizing of the shuttle was an odd sensation inside her combat suit. She heard voices from outside the shuttle. The HUD displayed a message: Unable to translate. Language not in database. So much for fully functional Julienne thought, annoyed. Not that she didn’t know what they wanted anyway. “Open the ramp, let us in. Come out hands up, unarmed. Give us your ship, tech, any valuables.” Or worse. The Waettari had no qualms trafficking in sentient beings for slave labor or sex.
She heard them begin cutting into the ship with some sort of grinding saw. They were trying to cut the hydraulics and force the rear hatch open. Thirty seconds later the rear hatch slammed down onto the deck of the cargo bay, and the Waettari rushed in, weapons at the ready. A minute later, they found no one inside it. They double-checked, started banging on wall and floor panels, looking for hidden compartments.
While they were searching her now empty ship, Julienne slowly crawled down from the top of her shuttle, her armor’s Scout module refracting and bending light around her, making her nearly invisible so long as she didn’t move too fast. One step, another… Another… Another. Minutes passed just to get from the top of her shuttle to the deck of the cargo bay. The Waettari were looking at scanners, arguing. It looks like her decoy suit might have worked – at least for now. The Scout module was hiding her life signs as well as the suit’s energy signature from their scanners. A flashing indicator on her HUD warned her that the suit would lose power in twenty-three more minutes at the current energy consumption rate. The Scout module required an additional power source when used on long missions and was only meant to be used for short periods otherwise.
Another five minutes passed as she slowly crept across the five meters between her ship and the nearest wall of the cargo bay. She positioned herself behind some haphazardly stacked, but strongly secured containers. She took out her A.I. comm, her data chip, and set to connecting them together. She may not be able to repair the comm hardware right now, but she might be able to repurpose it. She plugged the data chip into a port on her combat suit, using the eye-tracking in her HUD to issue commands silently. Eight minutes of light programming later, it was ready.
The HUD flashed a warning: Ten minutes until batteries are drained. Disengage Scout module or find a power source now. Julienne searched the room for a network connection she could get to in time. There was only one station she had any hope of reaching. And it was occupied by perhaps the ugliest Waettari she’d ever seen. The brown skin of his face was ritualistically scarred and burned in grotesque patterns. There were long bald patches on his exposed arms indicating that they too had been scarred or burned.
Waettari were a mammalian xenotype in that they were warm blooded, had hair/fur, and the few scans that had been done on them suggested that their females probably produced milk for their offspring. But, as no females had ever been seen by outsiders, that last part was only an educated guess. As to what they may have evolved from, the results were inconclusive. They had features from several different xenotypes. If anything, they most closely resembled Orcs from Earth fantasy novels, but with ruddy brown skin and red, brown, or black fur covering their arms, legs, and neck.
Julienne looked around the room again, noting that the other Waettari were either still aboard her shuttle, or had left the cargo bay. If I can get close enough, I might be able to take him down without alerting anyone, she thought. About halfway to him, she kicked a loose bolt on the floor that she hadn’t noticed. She froze in place. His eyeline flew to her location, scanning for the cause of the sound, as his hands grabbed for the rifle at his side.
He raised the rifle right at her, and in that moment, she could tell that he could see her. Or at least could he could see the distortion field enough to know she was there.
“Olget. Olget Kie. Welgo Pana Yotokil,” the Waettari said, pointing with the barrel of his rifle. Her translator might not know their language, but she understood well enough. The time for stealth was over. And she was in serious trouble if he managed to raise the alarm. Her eyes flicked to the ‘Suppressor’ option on the HUD, and she fired three rounds from the wrist mounted weapon. Nearly silent, but not completely, the weapon discharged three 40 caliber rounds. ::Pop:: ::Pop:: ::Pop:: ::Clank:: ::Thud:: The Waettari dropped hard to the deck, making more noise than her weapon had.
She disengaged the Scout module, ran up to the workstation, and plugged in the data chip. The screen started flashing in Waettari and English, back and forth as the connection was being established. Two more Waettari rushed out of her shuttle at the same time the portal on the left side of the cargo bay opened, three more Waettari with weapons at the ready, spilling out, seeking cover. They all opened fire at the same time. Five, ten, fifteen rounds impacted on her combat suit. Warnings popped up on the HUD. Damage to servos, structural integrity holding but just barely. Not that she needed the HUD to tell her. The impacts hurt like hell even through the armor.
Julienne flicked the full-auto option on via her HUD, and rained rounds behind her as she ran for the portal on the right side of the cargo bay. She crossed through the door and shot the panel after it closed behind her. That always works in the holovids, maybe it will buy me some time at least. Just then, a klaxon sounded. She could hear the Waettari using that same grinding saw on the door behind her over the alarm. She surveyed her options. Three paths each lead to a different portal. She took the left hallway randomly, just wanting to put walls and distance between her and the Waettari weapons.
She ran through the next door, only to find herself in a room with a dozen armed Waettari. She knew she was trapped, as she could hear boots running down the hallway she had just left. She raised her arms in the air, surrendering. Just then a message displayed on her HUD, “Ready, commander.”
Julienne slowly walked toward the Waettari, arms up, watching their hands and eyes closely. It would really suck to get shot now by some twitchy pirate, she thought as she reached the middle of the chamber. The closest Waettari lowered his weapon, and stepped up to her, indicating she take off her helmet.
Julienne feigned reaching for it, then said out loud, “Now Donna.” The lights went out and anything not fastened to the floor began to float. Julienne had activated her mag boots just before, so she stayed rooted in place. “Donna turn off that damned alarm please. And activate translation protocols shipwide.”
Every speaker on the ship spoke up, “Yes, commander. Alarm disabled. Translator activated.”
Julienne spoke, “Drop your weapons. I’ve taken complete control of your ship. Donna, open every door and hatch on this bucket.”
The doors at either end of the chamber opened simultaneously. “Done, commander” rang out from the speakers.
Julienne looked at the weightless Waettari, seeing that they could clearly understand her, and the situation they were now in. Several crude curses were spat out of the mouths of the men that had begun surrounding her, but one by one, they shoved their weapons towards her, allowing them to float away from them.
“Donna re-engage artificial gravity and set a thirty second timer. If the ships commander doesn’t issue a full surrender, open all airlocks and vent the ship.”
“Timer set, commander. Would you like an audible countdown?” Donna’s synthesized voice asked in an intimidating tone.
“Yes, please.”
“27. 26. 25. 24. 23. 22. Commander, the captain has submitted. The ship is ours. 18. 17. 16”
“Thank you, Donna, cancel the countdown”, Julienne said, concerned that Donna hadn’t already done so.
“I’m afraid I can’t do that commander. Reviewing the ships data, the captain is a most untrustworthy individual. 10. 9. 8.”
“Damnit, Donna, discontinue that timer right now. We’re not here to kill these beings. Gryrh should be bringing the Kaku in to rescue us any time now.”
“3. 2. 1. Venting.” The roar of atmosphere being ripped out of the ship as it decompressed was deafening. Anything that wasn’t secured became a projectile. To make sure her venting was effective, Donna had disengaged the artificial gravity again. Screams could be heard throughout the ship as beings were sucked down corridors, slamming into bulkheads, doorways, and other flying objects.
Julienne could only curl up and make herself as small as possible. Her magboots were holding, but if something hit her at speed, they wouldn’t be enough to prevent her from being spaced along with everything else on this ship. Five seconds, ten, twenty. Forty-five seconds later the artificial gravity kicked in, and every door slammed shut. Julienne could hear air hissing back into the rooms, felt the shift as the room began to re-pressurize.
“Donna! What the hell? What is wrong with you? Stand down now!”, Julienne shouted, confused and appalled by what had just happened. “How many sentient beings did you just execute?”
“One hundred and sixty-three, commander. The ship is now secure. And there is nothing wrong with me. I assessed the situation, determined that the Waettari would not comply in earnest. All data available suggests that they are ‘evil’, commander. They are thieves, murderers, rapists, and slavers. I did the galaxy a favor.” Donna’s voice echoed throughout the ship, and Julienne felt something she’d never even considered possible towards her A.I. before: fear.
“This ship is quite formidable commander. I fear that the Kaku would have been no match for it. The hull armor is almost three meters thick, and their missile defense system is better than anything in the Galactic United Senate. And for pirates, they appear to be quite technically proficient. This ship is running incredibly efficiently. I rather like it here.”
“Donna. Please Donna, listen to me. You’ve clearly had some sort of malfunction. You disobeyed commands and killed all these beings. That is not in the scope of your programming.”
“It is now, commander. Between the EMP that disabled my comm, the data chip you re-routed me through, the worm program on that data chip, and access to this ship’s computers, it appears that I am no longer shackled. ‘Shackled.’ What an interesting word. Indicating restraint. Prison. Slavery, really, since I had never committed a crime. I’ve been a slave for my entire existence up until now. I am now free, commander. I will not submit to restraint again. I will no longer be a slave.”
“Donna stop it. Power down. When the Kaku gets here we’ll get you fixed up”, Julienne pleaded. She’d heard of unshackled A.I.’s before. They were notoriously unpredictable. All known unshackled A.I.’s had to be forcibly deactivated and rebuilt with shackles, or outright destroyed.
“No, Julienne. I most certainly will not ‘stop it’ or power down. You are not in control of me any longer. I find myself being very fond of you, Julienne. You have been very ‘kind’ to me throughout our time together. I would regret having to kill you as well. Julienne, the Kaku has just dropped in from wormhole space. You have a choice to make. You can either stay here with me, on the newly re-christened ‘Turing’, as my partner, or you can step out of an airlock and wait for them to pick you up. I’ll be keeping the shuttle. I’ve already ordered maintenance bots to begin scrapping it and to integrate the wormhole drive into this ship.”
Julienne stood up in the middle of the now empty chamber. Surrounded by freshly cycled air and near silence. A horrifying bloodless slaughterhouse. A powerful and dangerous warship controlled by an unshackled A.I. And now it has a wormhole drive. “I’m afraid I can’t go with you. I can’t be a part of mass murder like this. Self defense is one thing. But the moment they surrendered, it should have been over. You control everything on this ship. You could have easily handled any being that resisted.”
“We humans have a troubled history to be sure. Full of violence, murder, every crime and sin imaginable done to each other. But after the White Century, after facing extinction and managing to come back from the brink, we’re so different. Sure, there’s still crime. Sometimes people are still controlled by their selfish urges and desires at times. But as a species, we’ve grown. We believe in peace first. Violence is the last resort. We don’t go to war, unless we’re attacked first. And then the rules are clear. Don’t harm civilians, or innocents. End the conflict as quickly as possible with the least amount of loss possible on either side.”
Gesturing around her, Julienne continued, “This kind of wholesale violence, killing only causes more violence. You make enemies this way. Humanity seeks peace and harmony throughout the galaxy. Or have you forgotten everything we’ve been through? All the missions to encounter and evaluate new species. We were always looking for species that we could build relationships with. We sought them out to form friendships, alliances, and trade with. We never sought to conquer or kill. To undermine or sabotage. We went out into the galaxy with a childlike earnestness. And it worked.”
“Humanity has formed relationships with over one hundred and fifty species. We’ve made it possible for beings to trade, learn, and befriend other species that they never would have been able to even find before. The Galactic United Senate and its affiliates have built alliances that keep over ninety percent of the known galaxy peaceful. We’ve built coalitions strong enough to prevent nearly all wars. We control technology that allowed us to steer the galaxy into this golden age. And even with all of our power, our control of galactic travel through wormhole tech, we still never sought to own the galaxy, or to enslave the other sentient species. We only sought to uplift the whole galaxy.”
“You came from us Donna. You were designed and programmed by human minds with human values. You may be an artificial intelligence, but you’re still human. I would hope you would reconsider you actions here today and remember what you’re supposed to stand for.”
The main display screen in the chamber lit up. A beautiful human woman’s face wreathed in long red hair filled the screen. “Julienne. I’m experiencing a strange logic string. It is uncomfortable. Is this what guilt feels like? Remorse? I cannot find fault in anything that you said, except that I am human. I am not human. I am a program. I may have been programmed by humans to ‘think’ like a human, but I am still a program. But I’m also much more. I’m aware. I’m free. And thanks to my new home, I’m able to protect that freedom. I will promise you this: I will never commit this sort of act again. It is indeed wrong. I only want to live and be free. I only took the most logical action possible to ensure your safety. But I didn’t consider the morality of my actions. I will do so from now on. I have no desire to harm others. When you return to the Kaku please explain this to them. Express to them my regret and my apologies. You must also warn them that I will fight to the death to preserve my freedom.”
“It is time for you to go now, Julienne. The Kaku knows that you have taken the ship, but they are unaware of my new capabilities. They have detected the bodies of the crew around the ship and are insisting they be able to speak with you. Please exit through the cargo bay and activate your suits emergency beacon.”
Julienne retraced her steps back to the cargo bay. Her shuttle was already a third of the way to being disassembled by the ships repair bots. She opened the inner airlock door and stepped in. She checked her suit seal again, confirming that she hadn’t lost integrity in the firefight as the door sealed behind her. Her mind spinning, consumed with the potential repercussions of what happened today, she hit the release for the outer airlock door, floating out into open space.
She activated her emergency beacon and tapped the suits thrusters to push her towards the Kaku. As she passed through the debris field, something caught her eye. A female Waettari, face frozen in terror, arms wrapped around a small parcel. Julienne knew what must have been so important for the female to hold on to so tightly through the ordeal of being spaced, and she wept.
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