#how millenials in 2006 would react

[ladymajavader]

Just wanted to add to your excellent discourse (please ignore if your sick of it) that while clearly the show (really C*rina) wanted to give us the it's All Alex's Fault narrative in S1, 1x06 screwed that up for them. I think it was just a way to justify Alex getting involved in Jesse's alien agenda, but because the showrunner wasn't big on backstory, she didn't anticipate that all Alex's actions take on a very different flavor when he's viewed, like Michael, as a traumatized, abused adult.

it sometimes takes longer to regenerate the spoons to express myself, but the topic of Alex and *waves a hand* everything really is one I still have a lot to express about, so here goes.

I think you're right on the money that CAM didn't anticipate fandom's reaction to Alex. It's clear she didn't realize what Malex would mean to queer audiences, or she wouldn't have done what she's done with s2. Full disclosure, I realize there are queer fans who fully enjoyed it. I mean that for a lot of us, Malex was a first story of it's kind - a same sex Epic Destined Soulmates Shit. And it's partly why we've glomped so hard on it and consequently were horrified at how s2 tore that aspect of the story down (especially in the stark contrast to Echo's treatment). But just as importantly, I suspect she was quite (negatively) surprised at the reception of Alex himself.

She molded a lot of the RNM characters with a definite agenda (which I approve of, whatever her motivation), racebending and queering them etc. left, right and center. The issue is, she tacked on the various characteristics and backstories (insofar as she made them) without thinking through and realizing what consequences they would actually have for the characters, as in how they would inform their actions and our perceptions of them. The particular intersection of gay, disabled vet and CA survivor with PTSD, absent Indigenous mother and shitbag homophobic abuser father didn’t have any significant meaning to her, so why should it have to the audiences? It’s pretty clear from her interviews, that the teacher’s pet was Michael (and spoiler alert, not Trevino), the sexy bad boy whom she tried to mold into Dean Winchester formula, but made him explicitly bi and for more whump gave him more storied history of child abuse and queer trauma. Alex was supposed to be a backdrop for him, a make-out partner - it’s clear she never intended to explore his story or his point of view, didn’t even have the backstory on his time in the AF (cue his totally different rank in pilot vs rest of the series) or how he lost his leg (the story we heard in 308 is so criminally under-researched there’s no way they sat on it for 3 years; never mind that CAM openly admitted to not having backstories for characters at all just because). But if she wanted the audiences not to care (that much / more than about her darlings) for Alex, you are right, she screwed up.

106 did a lot of the heavy lifting here by exposing and accidentally hinting at the horrific abuse Alex went through. As you noticed, it made audiences view Alex’s actions through a different lens. We’ve realized for example what must’ve been his thoughts and feelings in 103, when he was confronted by his abuser, the same man who permanently disfigured Michael with impunity, now giving subtle hints how Alex just being seen with him is inappropriate... you get my drift. But! what’s fascinating, is that CAM didn’t. In one of the camsplaining tweets she mentioned that Alex was simply ashamed of Michael in this scene. And honey, you may have intended it this way, but just by giving a hint of this character’s backstory you’ve given us a completely different perspective, not our fault you can’t see it yourself.

106 backstory gave us the core of Alex’s motivations, making him a fascinating character we could start to understand instead of just a tortured gay lover #2 (the one who’s sole fault it is Malex doesn’t work out). Other episodes of s1 also showed us facets of Alex that complemented and filled out that silhouette, like showing us how the grown up abuse survivor confronts his abusers (forgive but not forget for Kyle, karmic retribution and stopping the harm with Jesse), how despite/due to his shitty family situation he’s the one taking care of the emotional needs of his childhood found family of Liz, Maria and Mimi (!), etc. etc. Notice that after s1, this branching out - Alex having storylines separate from Michael that show off his character - is severely curtailed if not stopped completely: all his interactions with Maria are about Michael, the entirety of Forlex is just a foil for Malex and so on. So I have a sneaking suspicion she (really, they) did realize they made Alex too relatable, too interesting, too bloody important to people, and needed to dial it back so this character could fall back into his predestined groove of the scapegoat for everything bad in Malex and in general. Because as we know, if in doubt, it’s All Alex’s Fault, but that’s a rant for a different occasion :)

#thanks for the ask! #rnm my behated #anti rnm writer's room #anti carina #Alex Manes #also I keep thinking about my baby #Ianto Jones #and how he became the audience's favorite/viewpoint eve tho Gwen was meant for this role #and how even the queer show creators didn't anticipate #how millenials in 2006 would react #would they see themselves reflected in the professionally accomplished woman in great stable relationship with cheating on side #or the underappreciated secretary with bloody love life just figuring out he's queer? #the point is #it happens #creators not realizing how the audiences would view the characters they created #even tho it logically follows from what's on screen #but CAM and the writers room she created #lacked the ability and willingess #to adapt and change their own perception of characters #since it's so much easier to view them as two-dimensional cut outs #that can be bent into any shape the Plot requires

[chrisknolanfl]

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 was presented at the November 2018 SWFL REIA general meeting.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 disclosure:

In 2009, I presented a Whitepaper on Lee County Florida from 2009 I have been revisiting this paper recently.

This presentation is my research done for me and shared with you.

This is meant to be a 10,000 sq ft view of the market.

Data came from everywhere… but mainly

Census Bureau.

Federal Reserve.

MLS export.

3 ways to react to change.

Watch it happen.

Complain about it.

Capitalize on it.

Everyone and each generation share common lifecycle characteristics.

Eat Meals.

Make babies.

Live in Real Estate.

Each generation has its own traits and modalities but in the end, we all do the same things.

Where are we now?

Currently, we (SWFL) are a balanced and growing market.

Everyone wants to compare this market to 2005/2006 but currently, we do not share the same metric traits of that market.

Traditionally we have been a retiree based market. Timing the birth rate of people turning 62 timed the last cycle almost perfectly.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: How did we get here?

2001 thru 2003 we experienced a growth cycle in SWFL. In 2004 thru 2005 this transformed into a speculative mania.

An economic bubble or asset bubble is trading in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value.

For example, a 330k North Cape Coral home that rented for $1,600 a month.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Difference in demand.

          Check out the growth 2005 thru 2005, by percentages it is astounding.

          The sharp jump from 2014 forward shows growth but the percentages are not in line with a mania.

The market bottomed in August of 2008. Prices have risen since then.

Of recent the average price is flat and the median price is still rising.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Potential negative disruptive factors.

Change in Demographic Demand.

Easy leverage causes a speculative mania to form.

Random external events (black swans).

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Are foreclosures an issue?

          What does this spike 2016 mean?

Lending was loosened.

The amount of the defaults is at a pace that the market can absorb.

There have just not been enough mortgages since 2008 to drive another wave as we seen before. Below is the last cycle.

          The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Demographic Trends

Every generation is traveling across a level of time.

Millennials are on the cusp of surpassing Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation. Millennial’s, whom we define as ages 20 to 35 in 2016.

Millennials are expected to overtake the Boomers in population in 2019 as their numbers swell to 73 million and Boomer’s decline to 72 million.

Generation X (ages 36 to 51 in 2016) is projected to pass the Boomers in population by 2028.

The Millennial generation continues to grow as young immigrants expand its ranks.

Note the Millennial and Gen Z generation are always grouped together but they are very different. Think 18 years old versus 30 years old.

From 1965 to 1999 there were 140 million babies born.

You also cannot ignore the impact of immigration and foreign investment.

One percent of the U.S. baby boomer population controls about one-third of that generation’s assets and the richest 10 percent of the population own more than two-thirds

While the Millennial have had a later start in the life cycle, the boomers are also retiring much later. They are balancing each other out.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Some perspective on 55 and up assets.

While they will not buying into the market in growing numbers, they will be still participating in our local economy.

There will be the internal retiree migration.

Many start in a house or condo that is not age restricted.

They then transition to an age-restricted community.

                      The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: The local economy.

It is basically two things happening at once:

The Boomers will spend less money.

The millennials will spend more money.

  The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: The millennials are making more money.

That generation has experienced the most wage growth of recent. They all do not live in the basement as social media would have you believe. They are also heading up more households.

They are also migrating in large numbers. SWFL is one of the destinations.

        The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: The Macro Picture

A rising tide lifts all boats The aphorism “a rising tide lifts all boats” is associated with the idea that improvements in the general economy will benefit all participants in that economy, and that economic policy, particularly government economic policy, should, therefore, focus on the general macroeconomic environment first and foremost.

First, let us start with the money supply.

M0 = Real Currency. In private and Bank Hands

M1 Real Currency Plus Demand Deposits ( real money) and Travelers Checks

In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the money supply was expanded to stabilize the economy. Here is the long view.

        Here is the 10-year view.

        Here is the 5-year view.

        Here is the one year view.

        Notice how the expansion be ratios is slowing down. Traditional this causes a pullback in the economy. There is not much traditional about the economy anymore.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Macro debt levels.

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks

        Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding

        Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks. How are the consumers performing with this debt?

        How about Student loan debt? This will impact the ability of the Millenials to buy and how much they can buy.

        How about 1 to 4 family residential debt levels? This shows how under or over-leveraged this is in relation to the economy.

        The only debt level that has not blown thru the peaks of the last cycle is this asset class. This could change as the cycle goes further. Dodd-Frank is impeding this.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Changes in the Real Estate Industry.

There are no information gatekeepers anymore.

The transition from a low to moderate interest rate environment will have challenges.

Technology disruption…

AI (artificial intelligence) being able to determine the difference between intent and interest is going to be the key to profitability.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Some thoughts on Commercial Real Estate.

Retail will need to change. Call it the Amazon effect.

Also, the sharing economy (Uber) will change this space.

The following slides were from an SME from the Federal Reserve at the CIP Group that meets in the morning. If you are into commercial, it is a great group. Click here for more information.

              Office Space will be impacted by the changing economy.

                            As interest rates rise many of the low cap rate investments will feel some pain.

              Notes: Commercial is in a period of change. Industrial seems to be the most stable.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Other trends of note.

80 percent of the worlds internet traffic will be video by 2019.

With a $205 billion Internet, ad spend compared to a TV ad spend of $192 billion, global Internet advertising spends exceeded TV advertising spend for the very first time in 2017.

Over 52 percent of the traffic in 2019 is expected to Social Media.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: things to watch.

Can and how do we transition from a retiree driven community to one more balanced?

Will we overbuild?

Will we over lever?

How will the 55 plus communities fare with lesser demand?

  The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.

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from SWFL Real Estate Investing https://swflreia.com/2018/11/27/the-future-of-the-swfl-housing-market-2019/ from SWFL REIA https://swflreia.tumblr.com/post/180567046754