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paw-patrol-kiddo · 6 years
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2017 for my regressive side
Well guys, this is it; we’re really already at the end of 2017! Hard to believe, ain’t it? Well, I normally don’t do year review thingies, bu’ I figured I should probably do one this year, mostly cause this year’s been the best out of all the years of my life- and that’s saying a lot. I mostly wanna cover what this year has held for my regressive side, also with bits of stuff that happened in my big girl life!
If ya want, I’d love if ya made one of these posts about what this year held for your regressive side and you tagged me in it! Chances are, I’ll be reading it and replying very quickly! 
Anyways, time for the year review! It begins below the cut!
This year’s held a lot of things for my regressive side; a lot more than the previous years. I’m going to try and cover everything, for every month of the year!
January held my fifteenth birthday and also marked four years since I started liking diapers nonstop again, which ultimately led to me beginning to age regress. I discovered that it seems my regressive side is most active this month, something that’s really helpful to know for obvious reasons. I attempted to indulge in my regressive side discreetly to cope with stress, as I was still hiding this whole thing at the time and seldom spoke about it to Kaiya, my younger sister. I also remember that the month before, I stopped identifying as a chireb, and was trying to find a new label for myself, but was failing. This was frustrating to me.
I don’t really remember a whole lot about February! Not much that I can note, that is. Thinking about it, this month is kinda a blurry, confusing mess if that says anything; I just can’t remember a whole lot from it! I think either this month or the month after was when I gave up on finding a label and just settled on the generic age regressor term.
March held quite a bit of things for my big girl side; I began playing baseball, got my own room at last, and mourned the loss of a big part of my preteen and early teenagehood when Club Penguin shut down. Even with more privacy for my regressive side and my life in general, I mostly forgot about my regressive side around this time and moved on with my life.
April doesn’t hold a lot of notable things for agere, either. I do know that starting four months before, I started feeling other ages in my identity (I feel all the ages I regress to in my identity. Like, I feel like them and at times, that for example, I’m a 7-year-old trapped in a teenager’s body. It’s not a fun feeling) and I accepted two without a problem (10 and 11), but I continued to deny and push aside another age I felt, thinking it seemed too young. After all, I was content with my youngest being two-years-old; or so I thought.
I wanna say May started getting a bit tough. As the spring season of baseball drew closer to the end, of course, my regressive side began trying to rise from the depths. The little girl inside me wanted attention and more space. She couldn’t keep sitting back and hiding forever.
The most I could do for my little self was watch toddler and little kid shows in private, play with my toys, play children’s games online, and color. Not a whole lot, clearly, and I was still self-conscious of a lot of this. I am sure this is the time where I began feeling trapped regarding all of this. 
June began to show signs of easier times. Baseball finally ended for the summer, which of course, led to the “Well dang; what am I gonna do with my life til the fall season?” moment. My regressive side, of course, took the wheel for most of the summer at this point. Hiding this was becoming very hard; I had to find some way to cope, some way to be open, anything. My little side could hardly take it anymore; this month or the next month marked four years since she first stepped into my life and you can only hide yourself for so long before it becomes too much (I had been making an effort to hide for a year or two before then).
Towards the end of the month, I finally reluctantly accepted the fact I seemed to regress to age 1 and 4 days later, I finally gathered the courage to make this blog, something I had thought about for a year, but could never do it. I told myself if I regretted it, I could just delete it, no problem; that was what I was expecting I’d end up doing. 
But instead, with a place I could be little, the trapped feeling began to ease. I was scared, of course, but also relieved and very happy. In fact, I was so happy that when I went to the bathroom shortly after a brief flood-reblog, I had to happy stim for a minute or two before I could actually do what I came in there for. I gave Mom and Kaiya the link to this blog. I’m sure making this blog is one of the best decisions I’ve made this year- and I’ve made a lot.
Making the blog reminded of my love for diapers, which brought back a memory of when Mom sneakily bought some for me the summer before. Talking about it here was really hard at first and took a lot of courage, but if you can’t tell, I can do it without flinching or hesitating now. After a quick chat with Mom, I decided at last, I’d finally try them whenever Dad left the house for a few hours (shout-out to the anon who sent that ask after I posted about it, you’re amazing and I hope you had a wonderful year. We need more people like you. Also, I started happy stimming when I reread the ask before linking it here).
Also, I rediscovered Small Elephant (I received the lil guy as a gift a year before and played with him once, but never got too attached to him) around this time and idk what exactly happened or how it did, but apparently, I ended up attached to him and I still am. He’s my lil vacation/severe weather evacuation buddy now.
July was a blast! I finally tried out my diapers shortly after Dad left to help out at a vape and tattoo shop he volunteers at and by the time I finally changed out of my first diaper, I had officially decided I was wearing them for the rest of my life (not as in 24/7, but... I’m sure ya know what I mean). The only problem is that because I was used to seeing what all the a/b/d/l community advertised, I ended up developing a rash the second time I wore and had to learn how to take care of myself properly mostly by myself with the occasional help from Mom and the internet (and literally now is when I see everyone from that community talking about the proper way to do things...).
The day I tried diapers out, I tried out regressing to age 1 to see how I’d like it and well, the rest is history. ;) 
Kai relearned of the diapers this month (read it once somewhere on my blog according to Mom, then I had to tell her about a sample pack on the way, and then Mom had to have a conversation with her about it in the car when they were the only ones in there) and said she was cool with it and briefly even began joking about the whole age regression thing (in a friendly way, mind you).
I told Kim, my older sister, about my regression, and she took it wonderfully, of course. I also told a friend of mine about my regression and liking of diapers, who also took it just fine and showed a lot of support for it. 
I began to indulge more and more into this and I even had a friend who also age regressed by the end of this month (Rayyyyyyy~). 
I went to Florida with Mama, Kai, and a former (? I don’t even know anymore, honestly) friend of Mama’s and it held some interesting adventures there, too! I took Small Elephant places, regressed at the beach twice (@ Kai, psst. Remember when I trapped you in that hug and almost sunk us into the ocean? Well, there’s your reason why), got a Winnie the Pooh book from Goodwill, and indulged in some tasty smiley fries one afternoon! Clearly, this month is one of the best for my age regression. The little girl inside was happy; I was no longer feeling trapped.
August was pretty wild. Small Elephant came with me to Georgia; I don’t think he got to come along on any adventures outdoors, however. I got a jack-in-the-box style toy with a mama kangaroo and her baby joey inside. I also regressed at some point at our cabin and enjoyed running around outside just before a storm blew through. Mom chose to tell someone about my age regression without my permission (talk about a thought to occupy yourself down the lengthy lazy river) and thankfully, that person was fine with it. I was thinking about telling her not too long before, funny enough. I’d prefer permission and a warning before telling someone, though, aha.
I got two “0+ months” pacifiers that month from Mom and literally spent 2 hours sucking on them, save for when I briefly stopped to switch; needless to say, my TMJ relapsed very quickly after around six months of absence of symptoms, aha.
My ex broke up with me (I got with him back in May), despite promising that no breakup would happen 3 days before. This was mostly a good thing, though; no more worrying about how and when to tell him about the diapers and age regression! I’ve been single since and content with it. The thought of telling my future boyfriend(s) this is terrifying, but maybe he’ll be fine with it. Maybe I’ll even meet someone who also likes diapers (nonsexually, mind you) and age regresses as well! I imagine that’s a once in a blue moon thing, though.
We also told Dad about my regression and he took it fine, something that surprised me, as I was genuinely not expecting it. Mom didn’t tell him a lot and eventually, decided to back off for a bit temporarily after mentioning that I “liked to act like a 7/5-year-old sometimes” and that I liked pacifiers and wanted one (this was after I got mine). According to Mom, he didn’t respond to the pacifiers thing and honestly, it’s still kinda scary (if it’s the no reply I think it is, I got him to do it back in October and it’s really unsettling). I don’t know what it means and I don’t think I want to know. He still doesn’t know about the pacifiers to this day. It’s wild.
September held its own adventures. I finally rediscovered an old bag of Mom’s (I mostly remember it because she had it when I was an ‘’actual’’ toddler) and what’s inside? A baby bottle I held on to for three years from when my parents had me treat Puzzle Piece as if he were a baby, thinking it’d rid of my age regression tendencies (if anything, I think this just fed it tbh). I planned to wash it and perhaps try it out or look into a new one.
This also held a notable visit from my older sister. She was told about my liking of diapers and you probably guessed it, her response was coming to my room (I panicked and ran away while she was on the way to the living room after Mom called her in there), giving me a hug, and saying, “I love and support you no matter what you do”. My sisters are great if you can’t tell, and I also mean that outside of agere.
The night before the diaper reveal, Mom noticed me lying on Kim while she rocked the recliner one evening and Mom offered to rock me someday while Dad was gone, something I accepted pretty quickly. I got Mom to rock me for the first time ever two days later. Mom also told me that Dad was fine with the rocking, hence why I was rocked literally right next to him at some point, and he even said he could rock me someday. I don’t think I could do that, though; age regression related stuff is really hard to do around him, and I’d be too worried about his back (he has a bad back).
That month, the day before the rocking part took place, I finally gathered the courage to actually refer to her as “Mommy” on here, along with “Daddy” for Dad. It honestly feels so good to do. I just find it sad I was so scared to use those words at first thanks to the kink/sters. I refer to those two regularly by those titles, mostly to try and reclaim those words as innocent, pure words I call my parents occasionally, rather than terms that are tainted with reminders of ki/nk. Mommy’s easier to use, because I’m closer to Mom than Dad (as of late, that is), and also because “Mommy” isn’t as corrupted as “Daddy”.
I got a Pooh Bear sleeper the day of my second baseball game of the fall season. It’s soft and it makes me feel like a toddler; the only problem is that it’s so easy to overheat in it (which really sucks because I’m hypersensitive to heat and can’t handle getting really hot) and sleepers take up a lot of room in a dresser.
Oh, and this month, Mom called me a nick name she uses for me quite a bit now; “My baby”. Out of all the nicknames I know, I never thought of that. I still melt when she calls me it tbh.
October was a mix, really. I don’t remember a whole lot involving this, really. Rocked by Mom again, got another sleeper, and witnessed Kaiya prove that she was okay with the whole diaper thing by insisting she was fine with it, actually going to the adult diaper aisle with us at Wal-Mart (she stayed a bit away from us, though), and when the cashier bagged the diapers up, she moved so dang fast and had them hidden in no time. I know this because I watched her load other stuff into the cart and she was much more relaxed. I did see her look into the cart at some point before we went to check-out, so perhaps she memorized what the package looked like so she could hide them? Idk if she remembers it or if she’d even want to talk about it, so... Who knows
Towards the end of the month, something began happening. I don’t know what, but it eventually led to me becoming depressed again for a little while, but we’ll discuss that in a few minutes. I discovered I was so indulged in my regression I actually forgot aspects of myself and chose to take a break for a week the next month. I came back feeling better about agere and somewhat better about myself in general. I still don’t understand what happened, but it hasn’t happened again since. Hopefully, it’ll never happen again.
November was a pretty miserable month for me tbh. Has a few good or at least neutral parts, mostly in the beginning, of course. One of these is that I discovered that I can go so deep into my baby mindset (I refer to my 1-year-old self as a baby for brevity) that I’ll chew on things without a thought and well, perhaps that other part’s a bit tmi. I also finally tried out my bottle one evening; very comforting and relaxing.
In the middle of the month, I struggled with accepting that perhaps I did need meds after all (spoiler: I definitely need them) and stress from this, a fixation on childhood trauma, and chores, which were gradually becoming stressful instead of enjoyable, began building up. I began to fall back into a depression, something I was in denial about the entire time.
It was this time that I noticed I was having a harder time regressing, something that was terrifying to me. I was scared that perhaps my regressive side was going dormant; one of my biggest fears is that I stop regressing for good and I was scared that was what was about to happen. That was, until one night, I had an involuntary episode briefly. I didn’t think much of it and went on with my night as normal once it concluded. I don’t know why I didn’t become concerned; involuntary episodes are rare for me, after all. But then, I thought I was about to have a block, so I guess that’s why I thought nothing of it.
I tried my best to cope with everything, but it was futile. One night, just witnessing the dog we were dog-sitting have an accident and having to take all three by myself while they all cried and tried to get out just made me snap, I guess. I fell deeper into my depression, began craving to be an actual baby/young toddler again for the first time in a couple of years, and briefly began having involuntary regression episodes every night. Wearing a diaper to bed and having Small Elephant with me every night for a couple of nights, drinking from my bottle one night, spending more time with my pacifiers, and easing up on everything I could helped pull me out of it.
I still don’t understand what exactly happened, but I hope it never happens again. Also, I guess this confirms that I have involuntary regression episodes when I’m overly stressed. Hopefully the next time this happens, my regressive side will keep me afloat, like it always has.
December was pretty good! I got rocked again by Mom while I was being bottlefed by her, got a new bottle and a toddler snack, and got more toddler snacks later on that day (again, Kaiya moved them to another bag quickly before Mom gave me the bag with them inside). Dad learned about the bottles and snacks and thankfully, is alright with it. I wish it was the same way with diapers. He still doesn’t know about me wearing diapers behind his back, as you probably guessed, and it will stay that way for a while. 
I think I kinda cheated another depressive episode, but? It never came. I was just really grumpy and easily upset for a while, to the point of punching my bed and stomping, which I hardly do (heck, I still am as of right now, but it’s calmed down some). I wish whatever my brain’s doing would stop, because it’s getting rather annoying and I’d rather not spend any longer whining frequently and worrying about getting upset to the point of punching or kicking my closet door off its hinges or something. :’)
Christmas was great; I mostly got big girl gifts (see: My new camera) or at least neutral gifts (see: My stim toys and maybe my Pikachu necklace), but I did get a few things that appealed to my regressive side, like a set of five different Paw Patrol puzzles, a penguin plushie with my name written on its tummy (glitter and everything!), and an Animal Jam playset thing!
To end this year off, I got a sippy cup, one of my most-wanted regression items around that time. Now, if only I could actually bring myself to wash my bottle and sippy cup in the dishwasher (they’re top rack safe)... I guess I can start off the new year washing them after I listen to Bring Me to Life or maybe while I’m listening to it, hee hee hee.
As you can see, I had a pretty wild year full of adventures and experiences! You know what? Why don’t I mention some folks who played a role in making this year the best?
Mom - Mom, I think you know how you’ve helped. You’re literally a big aspect in this post. When I was 12, I thought I’d never have your support about all of this, but now, here we are. You’re my mommy and I’m your baby and I always will be. I love you.
Kai - Sis, I think you see your role here, too. I thought you’d never support me, either, but here we are. Thank you for being cool with the diapers and everything else and always being respectful about it. I love you. Also, sorry for almost drowning us that time
Kim - You don’t get on Tumblr anymore, but I figured you deserved your own spot here, anyways. You haven’t gotten to see a lot, but you’ve still been very supportive of all this. Thank you for being fine with it and loving me for who I am, no matter what I choose to do. I love you. Also, I still can’t get over the fact that you seemed to do so good with little me that one time and you didn’t even know I was regressed at the time and you literally treat me how you treated regressed me all the time, but I still can’t get over it
Ray - You were my first friend who also age regressed. Tbh, I’ve admired ya from afar for like, a year before we started talking, but I was always scared to talk to ya. Thank you for being so supportive, helping me out and offering help for things occasionally. Also, thank you again for the regression moodboard ya made in the past for me! I still think about it a lot, and have looked at it so much that I’m pretty sure I have it ingrained into my brain.
Bug - We haven’t known each other for long, but I wanted to say thank you for taking an interest in me and being my friend. You’re adorable and so sweet (and so is your fursona. I love seeing other people’s fursonas, ahhh). My bumblebee plushie told me to tell you he said hi~
Leah - We haven’t known each other for long, either, but you’ve been so sweet to me the entire time we have. Thank you for the times you’ve checked on me when I didn’t seem to be doing so well. We need more people like you. Honestly, your kindness is goals for me; I’m always wanting to be kind at all times and you’ve got that perfect amount, it seems.
All my other followers - I can’t list all of y’all, so I figured y’all should get your own honorable mention in one go~ Some of you I’ve known almost as long as this blog has been around (6 months!), some of you I’ve only recently gotten to know. I don’t know why y’all followed me, but I appreciate it. Thank y’all for following me, sticking around, and just being all-around cool. Y’all are adorable and lovely and I love y’all (and so is everyone else who got a specific mention. Yes, I love you guys, too).
I think 2017 is the best year for my age regression by far and the best year of my life in general. I’ve learned things, laughed, cried, shook from excitement and fear, grinned, and stimmed in many different ways for many different emotions. I can finally be myself without feeling as much shame. An autistic, ADHD teenage girl who is occasionally in diapers and often feels more like a little girl than a teenager sure is an interesting thing to be, but I wouldn’t change it for the world.
I don’t know what 2018 could bring, but I am ready for whatever it throws at me, whether it be pie (fun fact: I have never eaten pie before), problems with other people about this, or a pack of diapers.
To all my fellow age regressors, I hope 2018 brings you lots of happiness, acceptance for who you are by others and yourself, and anything you may want for your regressive side, whether it be more toys, a sippy cup, or a lot of marathons for your favorite cartoon/anime/TV show. Even if it’s hard for you right now, it will get easier; I promise.
Happy new year!! Stay little/tiny/smol.
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thecreativeseries · 5 years
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Amber Jones New Zealand Photographer and Filmmaker
INTERVIEW WITH OCEAN PHOTOGRAPHER AND FILMMAKER @amberandfriendsphotography
Amber Jones is Photographer and Videographer from the Hawkes Bay of New Zealand. A surfer, morning lover, self-confessed introvert and adventurer.  
Ambers work is captivating and her love for the ocean and what lies beneath is evident in her imagery. The passion amber has for storytelling and it’s ability to create real and lasting change is what makes her such an inspirational creative. She works closely with her forever fiancé Riley Elliot a Shark Scientist and waterman.
Firstly, can you start with a little bit about yourself? 
As potentially the biggest introvert in the world, my imagery is my own dialogue of communicating these epic things to the world instead of using words, which I’d fumble the shit out of in front of a crowd ha ha.
What would you say inspires your current vision? 
The ocean is the lifeblood of Earth and many incredible shows happen within it on a daily basis. It is the perfect training ground because it’s never the same conditions - Especially here in NZ.
It’s super volatile and easily affected by winds, tide & swell so it’s a constant photographic university!
How would you describe your photography style? 
Evoking emotion out of the viewer is usually at the forefront of my work, no matter what the subject. I want them to feel the same way I felt as I clicked the shutter and so far, the feedback has been spot on so I’m on track with my mission.
What drew you to capture the ocean the way you do? 
As an underwater photographer/videographer. I am treated to these spectacular shows put on by the water and it’s inhabitants on a daily basis. I wondered if I were to share this imagery around people would resonate with it and end up respecting it the same way I do, and ultimately wanting to protect it.
It’s really easy to look at a beach in New Zealand and think how ‘clean’ and ‘pretty’ it is compared to say, our neighbours over in Indonesia and the Pacific but if you look really closely at the sand you’ll see thousands of micro plastics which is really only the beginning of our problem here. If people learn to value something they’ll want to protect it so it’s there tomorrow and that’s the mission with my ocean based photography.
Can you give a breakdown of the equipment you use to create your work? 
I keep things really simple with a Canon 1Dxii and a two lenses - a 50mm and a 16-35m, and of course the Aquatica housing which lets me take my kit in the water at depths of up to 100m!
What would be your favourite lens and why? 
Hands-down the 50mm. I’m obsessed. It can shoot down to 1.4 so the depth is insane. It means I can really put my own unique take on the surf & wildlife stuff which are a fairly saturated market these days.
What are your go to settings when you shoot in the ocean? 
Never, ever the same! The ocean is completely different one day from the next - even hourly - so my settings are always completely different, which makes it all the more exciting!
Do you have a favourite location you prefer to shoot? 
It may be biased but home in the Coromandel for sure. Against the stunning white sand beach and mountainous backdrop we have an abundance of sharks and waves. It’s not called ‘Paradise Coast’ for nothing!
Is there somewhere you are dying to shoot but you haven’t had the chance yet? 
Tahiti! I can imagine it has natural elements similar to NZ but a thousand times warmer!
You can spend hours in the water what keeps you motivated? 
The personal evolution. I always leave the water having learned something or have a newfound respect for someone/thing.
Have you ever had an experience in the ocean that really scared you? 
I have had much more scary moments in big waves than with the sharks I like to photograph that’s for sure! It’s all about feeling comfortable in your environment and you achieve that by spending the time to learn about the specific activity.
For me, I feel completely helpless in big swells because I haven’t spent much time doing it, but thanks to my partner Riley & the knowledge he’s shared I feel completely at ease swimming with a 12ft pregnant Mako shark.
Can you tell me about any unpleasant encounters with marine life? 
To this day I can honestly say that the most unpleasant encounter I’ve had is with seasickness. I just can’t shake it no matter what I eat/drink/think!
What do you enjoy most about your career as a photographer? 
Telling stories and giving people a window into a world they wouldn’t usually get access to and convincing them to cherish the ocean as much as we (partner/shark scientist Riley and I) do.
Most humans aren’t ignorant or malicious people - they just haven’t had access to the information about the conditions of our oceans and wildlife, so if I can aid in that process using a natural gift then that’s what I’ll do, because the biggest mistake we can make is to think ‘someone else will do it’!
When you are not in the water what are your other passions?
My dog, Kona - The other love of my life ha ha.
How do you continue to evolve as a photographer? 
The internet is both a blessing and a burden with the plethora of information out there. I watch a few tutorials and vlogs by people who I think are pushing the envelope of content and then inject my own spin and style on them. I also try and shoot a lot of passion projects to keep the fire ignited.
Among all your work what is your most memorable capture? 
So hard!! I have two events which really stick out; One was purely because it was my first ‘hands on’ shark dive with my camera. Riley had made me sit on the boat for the first few sessions so that I could watch the behaviours of the Blue Shark from the safety of the boat, then after hours of studying his Go Pro footage we went out one morning, chummed up, and found the ‘dream’ shark to work with.
He gave me the all-clear to jump in with this relatively large, but chilled out Blue shark and I will never, ever forget that moment. The water was uncharacteristically clear and calm and as soon as I entered the water it was like the entire universe stood still. I was full of adrenaline yet blanketed in this unexplainable calm, watching this peaceful creature weave itself through Riley and I.
the second was producing my first documentary “Hinemoana” this year which is a celebration of female surfing in New Zealand. It was a passion project with a script that had been sitting on my hard drive for almost three years when the opportunity came up to work with an American production company (Triglass Productions) to bring it to life.
After a few Skype calls I completely trusted their vision for the film and they flew over in March and we smashed it out in a week! Mother Nature delivered the goods to both coasts over the course of the week so we have one incredible film currently being cut in the USA for release hopefully by September! Watch this space!!
What is something you wish you had known when you first started your journey in photography?
To stop worrying about what everyone else is doing and stick to my own mission.
How do to keep yourself physically fit to be able to do what you do? 
My dog Kona will NEVER let me sleep in past 7am so we’re up and at ‘em every morning for a walk or run. In Summer, my life consists of running, surfing & diving so I don’t have to consciously try and keep fit but in Winter I unfortunately have to rely on our little gym here and make sure I commit to at least two days a week among the dog running.
What methods do you use for editing? Can you explain your workflow? 
I use the Adobe creative suite simply because all the controls translate within each other and its easy to navigate once you get the hang of only a few things. There are so many tutorials out there which keep me on my toes and learning new tricks!
Who would you say are your greatest influencers and inspirations? 
Cristina Mittermeier (photographer/speaker/Sea Legacy) - is an incredible advocate for the environment using her storytelling skills to make a difference, I love everything she stands for. Danielle Clayton (owner/founder Salt Gypsy) - Danny introduced me to the world of sustainable fashion and really opened my eyes to being a conscious consumer. She really empowered me to use my storytelling capabilities for brands doing good shit in the world & I’ll be forever grateful for our paths crossing. Riley -  He’s always pushing me to be a better person, in and out of the water and is my constant source of underwater inspiration.
Brands like Toms, Salt Gypsy & Patagonia for lifting the lid on traditional surf wear and challenging the market to be better, both environmentally and socially.
vimeo
Lastly do you have any advice you would give someone starting out in photography? 
Stick to your own aesthetic and shoot things you’re most passionate about and it’ll shine through in your imagery.
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ozsaill · 7 years
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Weather resources for hurricane season
“It’s like you have a bullseye on Totem!” More than one friend has commented along those lines to us recently. It does seem like severe weather systems have pointed directly at Totem a little too frequently. So far, the systems moved or we moved and all’s well. There are probably more weather forecast posts to our Facebook page in the last two months than in the sum total of prior years! That tells you something. The possibility of riding out a storm is one of the big fears and first questions people ask about cruising.
We actually have yet to experience a named storm aboard Totem. That could change soon.
How do you avoid hurricanes?
Our primary tactic has been “don’t be there” in a very big picture way, by avoiding the zone of risk for hurricanes during the active season. In the South Pacific, that meant getting to a higher (more southerly) latitude as the season began: we sailed to Australia. In Southeast Asia, like most cruisers we remained equatorial, plus/minus a few degrees; this region is not subject to any cyclones. Crossing the Indian Ocean, we choose a route and timing that worked with the seasons, starting in the northern hemisphere in February (the risk diminishes in December) and arriving in the southern hemisphere by October (cyclones start in December there).
But here in the Caribbean, which doesn’t seem as scary as, say, launching out into the Pacific or Indian Oceans, we have actually placed ourselves at greater risk of severe weather than any time in the last nine years of cruising.
Latest in the series of “here we are near the hurricane” images – this morning’s NOAA update
Tortola, BVIs: car tires, aka hurricane fenders, grace the cockpit of a few boats in Nanny Cay
Only been upon return to North America, where we’ve now been for over a year, has experiencing a hurricane presented a meaningful (probable) risk. For all the well-meaning folks who worry about our exposure to storms at sea, I wonder if knowing that the bigger danger for us is closer to “home” in North America.
NOAA data for monthly incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes. It’s peak season NOW.
Staying on top of changes in the weather is always a priority: weather rules our lives. It could be perceived as hubris to be out playing chicken with hurricanes. Against nature, we are the chicken! But WE have resources, truly amazing resources, to help make better decisions. A system forms in the Atlantic, as it did when we were in the BVIs. Our first instinct was to dash south. Taking measure of timing and options lead to a different decision. We stayed put, suffered through 20 knots gusts and almost enough rain rinse the decks.
Here’s a rundown of our go-to resources, and a number of others to check out.
Primary resources
National Hurricane Center / NOAA. NHC is the place to start. They have the resources, the staff, the historical data. They offer depth of tools, from visual snapshots of hurricane advisories to regionalized text forecasts. While we tend to start the day with a look at the Atlantic page, it’s useful for text forecasts.
NOAA outlook for this morning – Saturday 2 Sept
PredictWind. Our go-to choice for weather information around the world, not just in the Caribbean. It’s PredictWind’s Offshore app on a laptop that’s currently helping us compare models for the as-yet-unnamed system following Irma; one which sometimes looks to be a bigger risk, depending on the model. It’s very helpful to readily compare four different models (including GFS and ECMWF, and two additional with PredictWind algorithms layered on top) to see how a path is being projected.
It can be significant: below are snapshots of the same time, with Irma’s projected position. Totem’s current location, in Martinique, is the green pin; the red pin is Grenada.We can sail there overnight if necessary. The GFS model (top image) shows nothing following, but European model (bottom) shows a worrisome tag-along-maybe-named-Jose forming.
Meteorologists / hobbyists
When bigger picture shows a system is brewing, we start looking for details; deeper analysis and information. These sites organize information from a variety of sources and present them in a digestible matter.
Mike’s Weather Page. Mike aggregates a lot of information into a single view. The graphical nature of the page makes it easy to scan to see the latest in model formation and direction. His website name, spaghettimodels.com, reflects the “spaghetti” look from multiple tracks modeled for the path of a weather system – humor always appreciated! OF course, the graphical nature means the website can a little tough to load if you have a sub-par internet connection. Thankfully, we usually have “good enough” internet in the Caribbean… or if we don’t, it’s within close range. His Facebook page often has a good snapshot combining multiple models into one more downloadable graphic, like today’s:
Mike’s Weather Page aggregate image sample from 1 September.
Tropical Tidbits. Levi is a graduate meteorology student at Florida State, and shares Atlantic tropical forecast tracks and discussion on his site. If you use Twitter, he offers more prolific and sometimes entertaining commentary—like this two-part tweet yesterday morning:
This made me giggle-snort.
Professional weather services
It’s nuts how cruisers will spiral into weather analysis. Paying for professional weather information is affordable, smart, and the safest choice you can make when you’re not expert. Relying on the interpretation of the boat next to you isn’t! These two get a nod.
Chris Parker. Justifiably famous in the cruising community, Chris Parker truly understands both the weather AND cruisers. He’s focused on North America/ Atlantic, delivering analysis and guidance over the SSB (free) via newsletter updates (paid). Beyond just weather, he provides weather-based routing services via 1:1 email or text to InReach.
Crown Weather. Rob Lightroom’s service aggregates multi-source information for free on his site, like others listed here; he also offers comprehensive analysis for paying subscribers by email. The summaries of conditions and forecast are impressive, and interesting to read as he shares details that help make your own capabilities better by discussing known behaviors or biases in different models.
We’re not regular subscribers of these—the prior sources are our go-to. But these are the pros we’d recommend, and have had enough exposure to their paid services to appreciate the quality of what they provide, and this summary would feel remiss without a mention.
Meanwhile, here in Martinique, we are busy having a reunion with our good friends: Utopia II last seen in Cape Town, South Africa.
Sweet reunion with Utopia II
Other resources
I took a quick poll from other cruising friends in the Caribbean to see what’s useful for them, since everyone gravitates differently.
My friend Carolyn from The Boat Galley has spent many seasons cruising Florida and the Bahamas “in the zone” during hurricane season. Her post on favorite weather apps is a good reference for mobile options and more. Favorites include two I didn’t know, Storm (free), and Hurricane Tracker (paid) – her discussion on those, two others, and why she likes them is an interesting and worthwhile read.
Windy comes up a lot: it’s very pretty, but usually seems to use juuuuust a little bit better bandwidth than beach-bar-quality-wifi provides. Better from the armchair or marina! Several people mentioned Marv’s Weather Service, and the Louisiana Hurricane Center, via Facebook page and http://ift.tt/2wwuMX9. Friends brought up a couple of sites based on French Antilles islands: I wouldn’t have naturally gravitated to non-English resources but updates on Facebook are conveniently translated automatically! Guadeloupe-based Meteo des Cyclones is quick to post system updates; from Martinique, Météo Tropicale has analysis. Good text forecasts are gold (you’re getting the meteorologist’s interpretation!), and my friend Sue—who is aboard her boat in Puerto Rico—reminded me that the National Weather Service staff in San Juan offer good analysis for PR and the region. (Thank you to Sophie, Wendy, Kimberliegh, Sue and Katia!)
We’re generally spoiled with ‘good enough’ internet service in the Caribbean, but occasionally are limited to our IridiumGO (with SSB/Pactor as backup). Bonniw from Planes, boats and bicycles (SV & RV Odin) has a good post called Tracking Hurricanes that’s all about, well, tracking hurricanes – with a focus on low-bandwidth means. Her Tracking Hurricanes post is both a primer to the approach and a reference to weather products for Caribbean storms to request through Sailmail and Saildocs.
Kids busy playing How Many Teens Can Fit on a SUP? behind Totem
Watching and waiting
Remember the tweet from Levi near the top of the post? It cracked me up, because of course on Sept. 1 who knows which football team will make the playoffs! And of course a hurricane track which looks awfully convincing when splashed out in deep angry colors on a forecast is tempting to internalize as gospel. But there is one sure thing about the weather: it will change. Even now, what’s looming with Irma varies depending on still-disagreeing models. Expressions of concern are appreciated, truly. So is faith that just because we don’t immediately run from our current position means that we’re stuck in the known path of a major storm: we’re not.
Weather decisions are made cautiously and conservatively, and staying stationary doesn’t mean we’re gambling. It would be safer for us to be in Panama, or back in Saint Helena. Be assured though, this chicken likes to cross the road without risk of getting flattened. Imperfect, and amazingly insightful weather forecasts provided by meteorologist geeks get taken for granted. To the meteorologists and weather geeks of the world, we thank you for showing us when to cross the road.
Sunset from St Anne, Martinique
from Sailing Totem http://ift.tt/2ww6QmQ via IFTTT
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