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pudgy-puk · 6 years

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so um. random question, but do you have a hot take on what is even up at the garlean leadership considering the 4. 0 stinger and that the 4. 2 trailer has asahi trying to offer an alliance with the empire? if you don't mind sharing, that is?

i DO have a hot take! i don’t feel i can go into as much detail as i’d like because my Hot Take re: the emperors of garlemald relies on other things i had been meaning to make a post about but haven’t yet because i am the world’s greatest procrastinator. but anyhow, the short version is: shit’s fucked. not irrecoverably so, and frankly not as much as eorzeans would LIKE, but shit is fucked.

now part of my belief re: this is that if there’s one thing i know, it’s that dynastic empires are REALLY FUCKING HARD. i have frankly lost count of the number of times i’ve read the “highly capable and effective man builds/conquers/acquires a huge swathe of territory, rules over and administers it well, dies, leaves it to his useless children/grandchildren, said useless offspring cock it all up, possibly losing most of the territory in the process, and inside of 30ish years after the original founder died, his descendants are being exiled or jailed or killed while another ambitious, capable person takes over” story. honestly it’s the most common way this shit goes. now, it’s certainly not the ONLY way this shit goes--sometimes this or variations thereof work--but it sometimes makes it hard for me to make the analytical leap over from realworld to fictionland, where those thousand-year empires on which the sun never sets are the rule, not the exception.

now, that being said, solus was the founder of his dynasty and the architect of garlemald as an empire, not just a regional power--and after he died, there was an (offscreen, but) apparently very vicious succession war, which the ultimate victor, solus’s grandson varis, won via killing most of his family. and now varis is embattled, with two large occupied territories (ala mhigo, doma) lost and more vassalage-esque relationships (e.g. red kojin, hingashi) broken or weakened, the biggest obstacle to the empire (eorzean city-states) are stronger than they’ve ever been, esp with the addition of ishgard*, he’s discovered that a region/people he had dismissed as beneath his attention does actually pose a threat (the xaela of the steppe)**, AND he’s minus one crown prince (zenos)*** to boot. this is a bad situation. but it is not unsalvageable for him.

(* i honestly think ishgard entering the field of conflict is something garlemald absolutely wanted to avoid. the ishgardian state was intensely militaristic, had a large army, was regularly improving their martial capacity, and was accustomed to fending off threats airborne and armored on the land and all capable of shooting fire and lighting. as long as they were tied up with dravania, with fighting the broods of midgardsormr’s brood, that was GOOD for garlemald. and now that the war is not only over but they’re agreeing to ally with the other city-states and also pals with hraesvelgr’s brood--hraesvelgr being the child of midgardsormr--as far as garlemald is concerned, that should be considered a worst-case scenario).

(** i never had the occasion to talk about this on the blog, but i am very pleased that stormblood seemed to validate the answer i considered most likely to the question circulating among me and friends/acquaintances after the xaela were revealed in the leadup to HW: the question being “if they’re all from the steppe in othard, which is all up in garlean shit, then... why isn’t there any mention of the empire fucking with them in their lore bits?” and my considered guess being “because the empire’s probable reaction to fifty-plus weirdo tribes constantly warring with each other over a grassland is likely along the lines of ‘these stupid, base savages are uncivilizable, and their territory is a scanty grassland only useful for feeding their nags. punish their incursions and lightly reward their favors, otherwise they don’t deserve our attention’.”)

(*** i’d just like to uh. to observe the fact that a violent monster like zenos was never removed via institutional means from the line of succession does not exactly fill me with confidence regarding the power, wisdom, and discernment of the governing laws and institutions of the administration of garlemald. not at all).

now, the reasons why this is not unsalvageable for varis! first off, while losing a prince is still generally Bad, tbh there’s a good chance that this means the remaining princes are The Sane One(s) and thus zenos’s death is a net positive in terms of preserving the dynasty. second, while i did list off a lot of bad things that happened for garlemald, there were good things too, particularly concerning R&D and tech advancement. thirdly, garlemald has put down rebellions and insurrections before, and winning back lost territory, re-intimidating marginal powers, and weakening their enemies is still perfectly doable, which is what i think the “we want to negotiate an alliance!” bit is about, especially using eikons/primals as the wedge.

i am absolutely certain that this is not an honest effort by the emperor to learn to live with the people of eorzea and doma. this is an attempt to get some time and space to rebuild, recuperate, and re-evaluate the strategies. eikons/primals are the wedge, because this is the one issue where there is overlap between the goals of the protagonists (primals hanging out in our mortal plane of existence is Very Bad for said plane of existence) and the goals of the empire (godless subjugation of the globe to technocratic order and perfection). if the tip of the wedge can find a good landing spot, it can be used to divide the diverse peoples of the far east and gyr abania alike: a reasonable concern regarding sri lakshmi can be turned into suspicion and resentment of ananta in general, despite all the help the vira gave to the resistance, and a perfectly rational fear of susano can be used to manipulate opinion against the kojin in general, even though they were instrumental to the salvation of doma. indeed, as i understand it this was part of garlean campaigning against eorzea in 1.0, fomenting suspicion of people like the amaljaa that then turned into strife. so i see the “negotiating an alliance” as “buying time to regroup by getting our enemies to be quiet for a while, and if we’re lucky divide and destabilize them.”

remember: as i hinted at in the bit on ishgard, in the situation i’m describing varis’s win condition is not limited, in the short term, to “total and utter subjugation and turning enemies to his unwavering allies.” he just needs their passivity. to use the steppe xaela as an example: varis doesn’t need to conquer the whole steppe and break the spirit of every tribe there, nor does he need to turn magnai and sadu and cirina and all the rest into his fearless soldiers. all he needs to do to win in the short term is to prevent them from honoring their pledge to hien for long enough for the empire to deal with hien. and there are many ways he could accomplish that. the emperor of garlemald cannot stand against the world united against him. if he’s smart, he won’t try to. instead, he’ll try to stop the union, via prevention or breaking it up as it forms. and the attempt at offering alliance suggests that he may, in fact, be smart.

but, of course, if he’s too transparent about his attempts to divide and conquer when he’s currently dealing with opponents who--absolutely crucially--have first-hand experience in how rebellions fail as well as how they succeed. he’s making plans, but against veteran opponents who know what they’re doing.

and that, roughly speaking, is why i think “shit is fucked” re: garlean leadership. the position is bad, but can be recovered from, but also they’re starting to run low on things that can be sacrificed or losses endured in the process of recovery.

i said this was going to be short, and i lied

#ffxiv #Anonymous

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riddlefromthemiddle · 7 years

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My kids lead a sheltered life. Shoot, who am I kidding – I’ve led a sheltered life. There are hardships and then there are hardships, and I’ve got a good handle on where I fall on the spectrum. BrightSide and I don’t want to raise precious snowflakes. We want to expose our kids to the world and keep them grounded, but I don’t quite think it’s gone according to plan.

BrightSide’s company provides incredible travel opportunities. We’re blessed to go across the country or around the globe, to experience different cultures, to sample new cuisine, and to explore a planet where there are a thousand ways to live a beautiful life. I’d never give it up, but we know this travel doesn’t immerse T-man and Bear in a daily reality for these cultures.

Which is what made San Francisco so bracing for Bear.

The city was a healthy mix of people, though probably a bit heavy on the tourist side considering the areas we explored with the kids. But there’s a common denominator that brings mass humanity into close contact in any big city, and that’s a little something called mass transit.

In July we explored San Francisco using transit passes, and it was a significant part of the adventure. The cable cars were interesting (and super crowded) plus, you know, historical and such. But it was city buses that caused a collision between jaunty tourist and real world San Francisco.

My aha moment was stepping off the bus into Chinatown. I’d never experienced such juxtaposed environments – one moment we’re in the back of a bus, talking to each other about what we wanted to see that afternoon; the next I’m stepping onto the curb with wall to wall people, a foreign language raining around me, and foods I’ve never seen being sold in the windows. It was a bit overwhelming, to be honest.

But I digress. This post is about Bear’s aha moment.

It was the first city bus we’d be boarding that week. We were hustling to catch it so we’d make the next connection, and as we rushed up the sidewalk the kids heard a disheveled man hurtle a furious “Bitch!” at the woman nearby. They both shot to my side like magnets, anxious about the angry man who shouted at anyone and everyone passing by.

Things got more complicated when the man boarded our bus. Bear turned to me with distressed eyes. She did not want to get on that bus, no way no how, but you know how those schedules work. So I hustled her on board with reassurances that I would shield her from view and her dad would never let anything bad happen. Yes, a small white lie considering I know how unpredictable people can be, but what else can you do when your eleven year old is terrified of a bus?

Unfortunately, not everyone was aware of our situation. Things worked out so that the agitated man sat across the aisle and one row back from us. I put Bear in the window seat with me in the aisle; Turner was directly behind her, and BrightSide was across the way, sitting directly in front of the man. Bear worried for Turner but was most concerned about BrightSide – she absolutely did not like that he was sitting near a man who kept raging at the world. She has the protective instincts of a mini-mama. She never stopped watching that man’s every move.

It was a relief when we finally got off the bus, but that didn’t mean Bear was past it. Not by a long shot. She was agitated, anxious, sick to her stomach. The encounter deeply affected her, and it was a while before we could even calmly discuss it.

We eventually talked about the hard fact that not everyone has a family to help them take care of themselves. That they might not have a safe place to stay during the day or sleep at night. That often people with mental illnesses find themselves on the street, and spending time on the bus routes is one way to pass the time.

It was a sharp run in with big city life for our country mouse girl, and Bear handled it with as much grace as anyone could expect.

Real world, San Francisco style. #travel #kids #parenting #realworld #RFTM My kids lead a sheltered life. Shoot, who am I kidding - I've led a sheltered life.

#kids #parenting #travel

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