#grandduggar 30
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GrandDuggar Round Up
Anna-7
Abbie-2
Jill-3
Jessa-4
Jinger-2
Kendra-4
Lauren-2
Joy-3
Katey-2
Hannah-1
Grand Total= 30
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There is an Unaccounted–For GrandDuggar!
Forsyth #3 is #30, But We Only Know About 29.
So, so many of you sent this in. Thank you! I am so happy to finally have an updated GrandDuggar count. Thank you, Jim Bob! Thank you, loyal readers!
[ Link to the Video at the Relevant Part (~5:30) ]
Up until Joy's video, we know about 27 GrandDuggars—25 Already Born (Mackynzie to Charlie), and 2 In Utero (Duggar–Wissmann #1 and Forsyth #3). It was also widely–speculated that Siah + Lauren and Joe + Kendra quietly added to their broods this year. Knowing that there's 30 GrandDuggars, and three unaccounted–for, Duggar Data now considers Duggar–Swanson #2 and Duggar–Caldwell #4 to be "confirmed" births. (See This Post for more information.)
Alright, so that brings us to 29 Known GrandDuggars. Here's a full list, in birth order—
(1) Mackynzie Renee Duggar–Keller 2009
(2) Michael James Duggar–Keller 2011
(3) Marcus Anthony Duggar–Keller 2013
(4) Israel David Dillard March 2015
(5) Meredith Grace Duggar–Keller July 2015
(6) Spurgeon Elliot Seewald November 2015
(7) Henry Wilberforce Seewald February 2017
(8) Samuel Scott Dillard July 2017
(9) Mason Garrett Duggar–Keller September 2017
(10) Gideon Martyn Forsyth February 2018
(11) Garrett David Duggar–Caldwell June 2018
(12) Felicity Nicole Vuolo July 2018
(13) Ivy Jane Seewald May 2019
(14) Addison Renee Duggar–Caldwell November 2, 2019
(15) Bella Milagro Duggar–Swanson November 8, 2019
(16) Maryella Hope Duggar–Keller November 27, 2019
(17) Grace Annette Duggar–Burnett January 2020
(18) Evelyn Mae Forsyth August 2020
(19) Evangeline Jo Vuolo November 2020
(20) Brooklyn Praise Duggar–Caldwell February 2021
(21) Fern Elliana Seewald July 2021
(22) Madyson Lily Duggar–Keller October 2021
(23) Duggar–Swanson #2 c. March 2022
(24) Truett Oliver Duggar–Nakatsu May 2, 2022
(25) Duggar–Caldwell #4 c. May 26, 2022
(26) Frederick Michael Dillard July 2022
(27) Charlie Duggar–Burnett September 2022
(28) Duggar–Wissmann #1 Due Before Forsyth #3 (See Note)
(29) Forsyth #3 Due May 23, 2023
Note—We don't know when Hannah is due; however, we can be all–but certain that her Due Date is before Joy's. Joy is due on May 23, 2023, and she announced on October 5, 2022. Hannah announced before Joy, on August 30th. Theoretically, the very earliest one can announce a pregnancy is Day 29. (That's the day the woman would be expecting her period, but it didn't start.) It's highly unlikely Jer + Hannah announced that early... But, even if they did, Hannah's Due Date would be May 8, 2023, which is earlier than Joy's.
If Forsyth #3 is #30, there's 1 Unaccounted–For GrandDuggar—so, let's go over the possibilities for whose child it is or how this can be explained.
This Post is really long, so... After the jump!
Could Joy Be Expecting Twins?
No. Per Joy's YouTube video, her OB confirmed via ultrasound that her current pregnancy isn't twins. Also, if she was expecting twins, Jim Bob wouldn't have described her baby as #30. He would have said #29 and 30, if he knew it was twins, or just #29, if he didn't.
Could Hannah Be Expecting Twins?
No. Jer + Hannah haven't shared much about their pregnancy, but they've shared enough to know it's not multiples. In the Pregnancy Announcement, Jer referenced a "precious little baby"—not babies. And in the Sex Reveal, Hannah wrote: "We cannot wait to meet our sweet baby girl"—not girls, or a boy and a girl, or whatever.
Could Lauren or Kendra Have Had Twins?
Probably Not, though we can't definitively rule it out. The Car Seat Photo featured one car seat, not two; and the Baby On Lap, Stroller, and Nursing Photos featured one baby, not two. That said, we don't have any evidence that proves they didn't have twins.
Could Some Else Be Pregnant?
Yes. And, if they are, they must be due before Joy—otherwise, her baby wouldn't be #30, theirs would. Joy is due May 23, 2023. So, the Unaccounted–For GrandDuggar is due on or before May 22.
Who is the other pregnant Duggar? Well, let's start by determining who is isn't...
Joy and Hannah's Pregnancies are known, so it's not them.
It's not Anna. Josh is in prison, and has been since December 9, 2021. She had Madyson on October 23. Even if she'd somehow managed to get pregnant between October 23 and December 9, she would've delivered by now.
It's not Abbie. She'll be <40 Weeks Post–Partum in May 2023.
It's almost certainly not Jill, since she would've had to conceive again within 8 Weeks of Freddy's Birth.
Irish Twins are rare, even for Predictor Families, so it's unlikely to be Katey or Kendra, who both gave birth in May 2022.
That just leaves Jessa, Jinger, Lauren, and Claire. Out of that group, Lauren is probably the least likely to be pregnant now, since she just had Baby C in or around March 2022. If she gave birth again in May 2023, that would be a very, very short—unusually short, even among Predictor Families—child spacing, which seems unlikely. (Especially in light of the longer gap between Bella and Baby C.)
Jessa, Jinger, and Claire remain. Of those three, Claire is definitely the likeliest candidate, as she's very overdue (~4 SDs) for Pregnancy #1. Jinger is also currently overdue, but less overdue than Claire (~1 SD)—plus, she seems to have jumped off the quiverfull bandwagon. That just leaves Jessa. If it's her, she's early—but, only by 3 Months. (Seewald #5 is currently forecast for August 2023.)
Whoever it is, they probably aren't that far ahead of Joy. Currently, it's Duggar–typical to announce a pregnancy at ~94 Days Along. If there was an announcement today, that would correspond to a May 6, 2023 Due Date. And if they were due on the latest possible date, May 22nd, they won't be "late" to announce until November 18th.
Could Someone Else Have Secretly Given Birth?
(Note—I'm talking about another "secret birth" on top of the now–known secret births of Baby C and Duggar–Caldwell #4.)
Probably Not. This would imply that the Unaccounted–For Grand has been born as of today, November 1, 2022. Right away, we can rule out a number of Duggars—
It's not Hannah. She hasn't been married long enough to be on Baby #2. (She and Jer tied the knot on March 26, 2022.)
It's not Joy. She said that this is Baby #3. If she'd had a secret birth, she'd be on Baby #4, not #3.
It's not Abbie, Jill, or Katey, since they are all <40 Weeks Post–Partum, and we're sure that their latest baby was their 2nd, 3rd, and 1st, respectively. (No chance they snuck in a secret one.)
It's not Kendra. She had Brooklyn in February of 2021 and she's believed to have given birth again in Late May 2022. There's no way that she's given birth again since May, 5 Months Ago. And, likewise, there's no way that she squeezed another pregnancy in between Brooklyn and the May 2022 Baby. There simply aren't enough days. It's not possible.
It's probably not Anna. While it's not impossible, it's a really tight timeline... Like, really tight. She would have had to get pregnant within <7 Weeks of Madyson's Birth, which is completely at odds with her typical spacing. If it did happen, M8 probably arrived in August, maybe Early September.
It's probably not Jessa. She is still active on social media, so it's pretty unlikely that she wouldn't have announced a pregnancy.
That leaves Lauren, Jinger, and Claire. Out of the group, Jinger is probably the least likely suspect. While she doesn't share her girls' faces on social media anymore, she just shared a Halloween photo that shows two toddlers with no infant in sight. As for Lauren, it is possible she's had 2 Children since Bella; however, it would require two really close spacings, since that's 2 Children in 28 Months. As for Claire, it's definitely possible she's had a baby by now. (She got married in February of 2021.) But, is she the type to not announce anything? I'm not so sure about that.
Could Jim Bob's Count Include Annabell?
Probably Not. Jim Bob + Michelle lost their 20th Child, Jubilee, at ~20 Weeks, but don't include her in counting their own 19 Children. Annabell was also an ~20 Week Loss. It doesn't make much sense that they'd count Annabell and not Jubilee, but we also can't rule it out. It's possible, but unlikely, that that's what's going on.
TL;DR—
Ultimately, the most likely answer is that there's another Duggar on the way, due shortly before Forsyth #3, and it’s Claire’s, Jinger’s, or Jessa’s. However, we can't rule out the possibility of Lauren or Kendra having twins, or of Anna, Jessa, Lauren, Jinger, or Claire having a "secret birth," or of J.B. including Annabell in the list of GrandDuggars. Also, maybe Jim Bob just can’t count… But, probably not. He seemed sure.
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Josiah&Lauren
We recently discovered something big! We know that the missing grandDuggar, #29, is now solved. Josiah&Lauren had a 3th baby, a boy.
There was a babyregistry with a due date of may 3th 2023
JimBob mentioned in Joy's pregnancy announcement video that she was expecting grandDuggar #30
JimBob mentioned in Joy's birth video that she had #30 and that they are now in a tie, making #29 a boy
There surfaced a photo of Hannah Duggar with her daughter Brynley and Lauren pregnant, so the photo has to be of this year
With this info I decided to put Josiah&Lauren down with a 3th baby, a boy and I put the due date of the registry as date of birth. We don't know if that's correct but it's something to go from.
With the birth of this 3rd baby both Josiah as Lauren move up in the list. Lauren goes from place #39 to #34. She is now 27 places ahead. That put's her almost most ahead. Only Kendra is more ahead for her age. Josiah stood on place #38 and is now on place #33. He is now 14 places ahead, the same as his brother Joseph.
For the future Josiah&Lauren really changed my mind about how fast they are going. I'm predicting we will find out again about them having another baby in october 2024. What do you think?
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Name Predictions for Caldwell-Duggar #4 - Girl
This is part two of name predictions for Joe and Kendra’s rumored fourth baby, girl edition! As mentioned in the first post, I strongly suspect this baby is a boy, but I might as well cover my bases. Plus girls’ names are a little more fun in this case since they already have two daughters to go off of vs. only one son.
Previous Naming Information
This was discussed at length in the previous post, but Joe and Kendra have three previous children: Garrett David (b. 2018), Addison Renee (b. 2019), and Brooklyn Praise (b. 2021). Their only son, Garrett, was given a family name as his first name. Garrett is both the middle name of his father Joe and the first name of Joe’s mother Michelle’s father Garrett Ruark. David does not have any family ties that I know of (other than Joe’s brother John David - probably a coincidence), but is a classic, Biblical name.
The girls’ names are a different story. Both of their first names are a style I like to call “trendy in 2013.” Additionally, all children have names with double-letters thus far, which could be unintentional, but also might suggest a pattern. For the middle names, Renee is Kendra’s middle name, like Garrett is Joe’s. Brooklyn’s middle name of Praise completely throws me for a loop though. I guess we could take this to mean we can expect virtue names moving forward, but I don’t know since I would have excepted Grace, Faith, or Hope long before Praise.
Preliminary Predictions
I like to make a list of all the double-letter names from the Social Security Administration’s list of top 500 baby names, so I will do that here. I will exclude any first names belonging to other GrandDuggars, as well as any that don’t make sense for Joe and Kendra due to language, religious affiliation other than Christian, etc. Names that aren’t exactly the same as another GrandDuggar but are really close, or names that have been used as middle names for other GrandDuggars are included but struck out.
Emma (#2)
Charlotte (#3) / Charlee (#272)
Isabella (#7) / Isabelle (#117) / Izabella (#370)
Gianna (#13)
Ella (#16) / Ellie (#30) / Elle (#357)
Scarlett (#20)
Willow (#39) / Willa (#353)
Stella (#41)
Hannah (#44)
Lillian (#51) / Lilly (#218) / Lilliana (#371)
Aaliyah (#61)
Savannah (#68)
Kennedy (#70)
Quinn (#80)
Allison (#82) / Allie (#411)
Gabriella (#83) / Gabrielle (#448)
Anna (#84) / Annie (#230)
Rylee (#97)
Brielle (#118) / Briella (#328)
Adalynn (#119) / Adelynn (#347) / Addilyn (#417)
Elliana (#131) / Elianna (#360)
Kaylee (#139)
Summer (#141)
Arianna (#145)
Reese (#147)
Sienna (#149)
Ariella (#171) / Arielle (#359)
Millie (#174)
Callie (#177)
Juliette (#178)
Brianna (#184)
Molly (#186)
Brynlee (#187) / Brynn (#362)
Aubree (#190)
Gemma (#191)
Arabella (#195)
Journee (#197)
Noelle (#202)
Oaklynn (#204) / Oaklee (#486)
Alyssa (#233) / Alessia (#436)
Lennon (#236)
Sutton (#244)
Vanessa (#253)
Lucille (#276)
Camille (#281) / Camilla (#311)
Maggie (#285)
Tessa (#287)
Joanna (#291)
Julianna (#301)
Rebecca (#304)
Kendall (#305)
Vivienne (#316)
Hallie (#317)
Mckenna (#319) / Makenna (#367)
Collins (#326)
Gracelynn (#335)
Avianna (#354)
Giselle (#361)
Danna (#369)
Melissa (#372)
Everlee (#376)
Annalise (#385)
Michelle (#394)
Alessandra (#400)
Poppy (#401)
Paislee (#420)
Daniella (#430) / Danielle (#443)
Colette (#454)
Marlee (#457)
Hattie (#459)
Holly (#465)
Braelynn (#472)
Cassidy (#476)
Jessica (#481)
Madelynn (#490)
Jennifer (#493)
Of these, the names that stand out to me as potential choices are Charlotte, Savannah, Lillian, Hannah, Everlee, Brianna, Paislee, Lucille, Summer, and Alyssa.
And some non-double-letter names that might be a fit? Perhaps Olivia, Sophie, Kinsley, Madeline/Madelyn, Natalie, Haven, Reagan, Emerson, Presley, and Kimberly.
For the middle name, I'm thinking virtue names, but not just the more typical virtue names like Grace, Faith, Hope, and Joy. Going off of Praise, maybe more unusual ones like Mercy, Shalom, Glory, Charity, Constance, Agape, and Patience. Maybe Kendra will pick Christina after her mother, but I kind of doubt it.
My Final Predictions
Even if Joe and Kendra do publicly announce this baby (which is seeming more unlikely every day), I really really think it is a boy. I guess this list could be applied to any future girls they have though! I mentioned in the boys’ post that I prioritized names ending in “-t” because I thought that would pair well with Garrett. I like the similar idea of names ending in “-n” for girls in theory, but that isn’t necessarily reflected in my top choices. If they do have a double letter theme, I think it will be Charlotte for a girl. I think this would go well with all three of her older siblings’ names, is a similar length to the siblings’ names, and would even establish an “A, B, C” pattern for girls’ names. If the name doesn’t have double letters, I'm feeling Natalie. Natalie reached its peak in popularity in 2008 and has decreased consistently since then.
I think Faith has a really good chance of being chosen as a middle name, especially sharing the “long -a” sound with Renee and Praise. Part of me really really wants her to pick Glory though as it’s a guilty pleasure name of mine.
And we’ll end with the top ten list!
Charlotte Faith
Natalie Faith
Savannah Joy
Lillian Glory
Everly/Everlee Grace
Emerson Mercy
Lucille/Lucy Shalom
Kinsley Agape
Olivia Charity
Summer Constance
#fundie#fundie pregnancy#name predictions#baby names#fundie predictions#pregnancy speculation#joe and kendra#caldwell duggar 4#duggar family#caldwell family#baby girl#may 2022?#june 2022?
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I can’t believe a third of the Duggar grands are Anna’s kids. That poor woman!
I didn’t think of it like that but you’re (almost) right. Now Evelyn is here, Anna is now mom to just over 31% of the GrandDuggars (Lowering to 30% in November when Vuolo #2 arrives). At the time of MaryElla’s birth this figure was 37%. Poor Anna!
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Katey Might Be Pregnant. Again.
Thank you to the many, many people who sent in Asks about this!
Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar has a public Pinterest profile. It’s definitely hers; her half–sister and Hannah (Wissmann) Duggar follow it. One of her "boards" is also entitled "Esther's shower!," and we know that Katey planned / hosted Esther (Keyes) Bates's baby shower back in September.
Direct your attention to the latest "board" on Katey's account, which is entitled "Christmas photo." Per Pinterest, Katey's latest pin to the "Christmas photo" board was 1 Month Ago. When you click into the board, you see that the most recent pin is... An idea for a Christmas–themed pregnancy announcement.
Now, Duggar Data isn't a Pinterest whiz, by any means. I'm not sure if "1 Month Ago" actually means 30 Days Ago, or possibly if Pinterest treats everything that happens in October as "1 Month Ago" as soon as November rolled around. Regardless, snarkers—Reddit, I believe, was first to find it—discovered the "Christmas photo" Pinterest page yesterday (November 2, 2022). So it's safe to say that Katey pinned the holiday–themed pregnancy announcement in October 2022.
I'm sure you're all eager for the data, so let's get on with it.
When is Duggar–Nakatsu #2 Forecast to Arrive?
As of November 3, 2022, Katey was expected to announce her 2nd Pregnancy on December 27, 2023, and give birth August 22, 2024. That's based on Jed + Katey's Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (394 Days), the Duggar 2nd Child Multiplier (1.7949), and a Maternal Age Multiplier for Age 25–29.99 (1.1928). All that works out to an Age–Adjusted Procreative Pace (AAPP) of 843 Days (27.7 Months). The Projected DOB (August 22, 2024) is 843 Days after Truett's DOB of May 2, 2022—so, there you go. Their ESOQ is 8 Children.
(Note—Savvy followers might be objecting at this point, like: "Katey isn't 25! She doesn't turn 25 until July 2023!" That is true; however the Maternal Age Factor kicks in because she will be Age 25–29.99 for her next birth.)
TL;DR—If Katey is pregnant, Jed + Katey are early for Baby 2. How early, you ask. Well, that depends...
If They Found Out In October...
Apparently, she was pinning announcement ideas—so, it seems like maybe she's pregnant. We have no way of knowing when she found out, but let's just assume it was close in time to the pins and go with mid–October (October 16, 2022). In the Pregnancy Announcement for Truett, Katey was shown using an "early detection" test, which is capable of detecting a pregnancy on Day 23 of a 28–Day Cycle. We can estimate that, if Katey used that test and found out on October 16, 2022, her Approximate Due Date (ADD) is June 30, 2023. The Duggar–Nakatsus announced at a mere 41 Days Along last time, so they'd be expected to announce on November 3, 2022. (Hey, that's today! Nifty.)
If Katey is due on June 30th, 2023, her child can't be GrandDuggar #29, since her Due Date is after Joy's and Joy is having #30.
If Katey is due on June 30th, she's 419 Days and 2.34 SDs Early for Baby #2. Her and Jed's Baseline Procreative Pace (PP)—without a Maternal Age Adjustment—would be 424 Days (~14 Months), which is faster than Kelly Jo Bates (456 Days), Kendra Duggar (483 Days), Michelle Duggar (491 Days), and Tori Smith (454 Days). The couples who are faster are Grace + Kord (366 Days) and Nurie + Nathan (414 Days). Factoring Maternal Age in, Jed + Katey's ESOQ would be 13 Children (+5 vs. Current ESOQ).
If They Announce On Christmas...
Okay. Maybe Katey isn't pregnant, yet. She's just planning ahead... Last time, Jed + Katey announced at 41 Days Along. Assuming they announce on Christmas of 2022, again at 41 Days Along, that yields an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of August 21, 2023.
Again, Duggar–Nakatsu #2 can't be GrandDuggar #29, since Joy is due in May and hers is #30.
If Katey is due August 21, 2023, she's 367 Days and 2.05 SDs Early for Baby #2. Her and Jed's Baseline Procreative Pace (PP), prior to Maternal Age Adjustment, would be 476 Days. That's a little slower than Grace Etbauer, Nurie Keller, Tori Smith, and Kelly Jo Bates, but still faster than Kendra or Michelle Duggar. Factoring Maternal Age in, their ESOQ would be 12 Children (+4 vs. Current ESOQ).
Conclusion
If Katey is pregnant again already, Kendra better watch out.
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[More–or–Less] Confirmed: Lauren and Kendra Both Gave Birth in 2022
On October 30, 2022, Joy (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth posted a video on their YouTube, which documented them telling their families that they were expecting Baby #3. About 5½ Minutes in, Joy Facetimes Jim Bob and tells him the news. She asks what 'number' grandchild this one is, and Jim Bob says: "Number 30."
Up until Joy's video, Duggar Data had 27 GrandDuggars on the list— 25 Already Born, and 2 In Utero (Duggar–Wissmann #1, Forsyth #3). For months, it has also been widely speculated—but annoyingly, not confirmed—that Lauren and Kendra had had their 2nd and 4th Child, respectively, earlier this year.
Now that we know Forsyth #3 is GrandDuggar #30—and thus, that our list is missing not one, not two, but 3 Grands—it is clear that we were on to something with our speculation... From now on, Duggar Data considers Duggar–Swanson 2 (Baby C) and Duggar–Caldwell #4 to be "confirmed" births.
When did they give birth, exactly? Good question! We don't know, and the data is very limited, but here's my best attempt to estimate with what we've got...
Baby C Was Probably Born In March.
Let's start with Josiah + Lauren. Here are the three major facts we have to work with...
Josiah + Lauren didn't attend Jer + Hannah's Wedding on March 26, 2022. They weren't in any of the photos or video, plus Josiah was conspicuously absent from the wedding party. (The Duggar Boys closest to Jed's age, from Joe to James, were groomsmen, but Si was inexplicably skipped.)
While at church on April 3, 2022, Josiah + Lauren were seen with an infant car seat at their feet. We'll call this the Car Seat Photo.
During church on September 26, 2022, Lauren was seen with an unknown baby on her lap. The baby wasn't wearing a bow. We'll call it the Baby On Lap Photo.
Additionally, many of y'all suspected that Lauren was expecting at Truett's Sex Reveal (October 4, 2021).
With the lack of a bow, the Baby On Lap Photo suggests Baby C is a boy. (This isn't confirmed.) Regardless, we know from the Car Seat Photo that he had arrived by April 3, 2022. Duggar Data thinks that he was born fairly close to then, and that that explains Si + Lauren's absence from Jer + Hannah's Wedding. (If Lauren was full–term, or had very recently given birth, they might've been reasonably unable or unwilling to travel so far, even for a wedding.) Given this, Duggar Data estimates that Lauren gave birth in March of 2022. The Sex Reveal photo also fits w/ a March arrival. Lauren would've been 4.5 Months Along—and very possibly "showing"—at the time.
So, we'll estimate that Lauren gave birth in March. Given my usual rule for estimating vague data like this, Duggar Data will use March 16, 2022—i.e., the midpoint of the month—as an Approximate DOB for Baby C, until and unless we get better data.
Duggar–Caldwell #4 Was Probably Born In May.
Moving on to Joe + Kendra... Here's the evidence that Baby #4 has arrived—
On or around June 16, 2022, Reddit discovered a photo of Joe + Kendra at a restaurant with their 3 Children, plus an unidentified infant (~3 Weeks Old) in a stroller. We'll call it the Stroller Photo.
On or around October 15, 2022, Christina Caldwell posted to FB and referenced having "grandbabies"—not just one grandbaby—born since February 2021.
Christina's October 15th Post also included photos, including one where you can see a woman in the background nursing. While her face isn't visible, her feet are and Reddit believes they're Kendra's feet. We'll call this the Nursing Photo.
Additionally, many of y'all thought Kendra looked pregnant at Jer + Hannah's Wedding on March 26, 2022.
Christina's October 15th Facebook Post references "grandbabies"—plural, rather than "grandbaby," singular—that have been born since February 2021. Honestly, this makes no sense unless Kendra + Joe have had a 4th Child. Brooklyn was born in February 2021, so she's the first "grandbaby" born in or after February 2021. And, we know she is not the only one, because Christina said "grandbabies." And, there's no one else who could've produced the other grandchild, as Kendra is the only Caldwell Sibling who is married. Barring an out–of–wedlock birth, which is so unlikely, it must be Kendra + Joe's.
As for when Baby #4 arrived... Assuming s/he is the baby from the Stroller Photo, it must've been some time before June 16, 2022. In the photo, the baby was said to be 3ish Weeks Old. Since we don't have anything else to go on, let's just assume the baby was 21 Days Old on June 16, 2022... That gives us an Approximate DOB of May 26, 2022.
None of the other evidence is overly helpful as far at the DOB goes; however, all of the evidence could be consistent with a birth in May. At Jer + Hannah's Wedding in Late March, Kendra looked pregnant. If she had the baby in Late May, she would've been 7 Months Along and obviously showing. The Nursing Photo could also be consistent with a May birth. We don't know when that photo is from, but there is a good chance Kendra is still nursing if she gave birth in May—so, there's no reason to think it can't be her in that photo.
TL;DR We don't know exactly when Lauren and Kendra gave birth, but Duggar Data is using the following Approximate DOBs—
Duggar–Swanson #2 March 16, 2022
Duggar–Caldwell #4 May 26, 2022
Both of these are rough estimates; however, I'm fairly sure the birth order was Lauren, then Kendra.
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I could look it up, but how old will he kids be at the end of the sentence? Baby will 12...right?
How Old Will Josh's Kids Be When He Gets Out?
Judge Brooks sentenced Josh to 151 Months (or 12 Years, 7 Months). Doing the math... 12 Years, 7 Months from today is actually Christmas 2034. But—let’s not forget—Josh already has some credit for time spend in custody pre–trial and post–verdict. Duggar Data calculated his ‘credits’ earlier today to be ~175 Days (~5 Months, 21 Days). Doing the math, Josh still has ~12 Years, 1 Month, and 9 Days left to serve, which is the 4th of July 2034. (What’s up w/ the holidays! Bizarre!)
But, wait! There’s more! Josh could also earn “good behavior” credits, up to 54 Days for every 365 Days actually served.
So, now comes the part where we do math... How many days between now (May 25, 2022) and July 4, 2034? Well, it’s 12ish Years (9 Regular, 3 “Leap”), which comes out to 4,383 Days, plus 1 Month (June / 30 Days), plus 9 Days. So, 4,422 Days. And if Josh earns 54 Days ‘Good Time’ for every 365 Days, that'd be 648 Days of ‘Good Time.’ Subtracting that from 4,422 Days, that’s 3,774 Days Left to Serve. Which gives us a roughly–calculated Out Date of September 23, 2032.
On September 23, 2032, Anna will be Age 44.25. Her Fertility Cut–Off is on October 12, 2031 (Age 43.30), so no more GrandDuggars from Josh + Anna. And here’s how old their 7 Children will be—
Mackynzie Renee Age 22.96 (and Probably Married)
Michael James Age 21.28
Marcus Anthony Age 19.31
Meredith Grace Age 17.19
Mason Garrett Age 15.03
Maryella Hope Age 12.82
Madyson Lily Age 10.92
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It Katey IS pregnant, and her due date is BEFORE Joy’s, what would that mean for her PP? Their ESOQ?
[ Follow–Up to This Post ]
If Katey is Pregnant w/ #29…
If Jed + Katey are, in fact, expecting the elusive 29th GrandDuggar, they’re way early, and they'll be setting a truly incredible pace. Also, their Pregnancy Announcement is really late, based on the timing of their 1st Pregnancy Reveal—but not yet late, based on family data.
Joy (Duggar) Forsyth is currently pregnant with GrandDuggar #30. She’s due on May 23, 2023. If Jed + Katey are expecting #29, then Katey's Due Date must be before Joy's. (We can be fairly certain of this. Katey had True on his Due Date, while Gideon and Evy arrived just 1 Day Late and 2 Days Late, respectively. So, there's no reason for us to think Jim Bob might be thinking, like: "Yes, Katey is due a day or two after Joy, but Joy is always really late, so Katey probably will deliver first.") She'd be due on May 22, 2023, at the latest.
Using May 22, 2023 as Katey’s Due Date, the Predictor thinks she'll once again give birth on that Due Date. Currently, Duggar–Nakatsu #2 isn't expected until August 22, 2024. Doing the math... Katey + Jed would be 458 Days (15 Months) and 2.56 SDs Early, if Katey is due on May 22nd. That's in the 92nd Percentile. And that's if she's due on May 22nd; if she's due earlier, it'd be even faster!
Just to hammer this home... That'd be a short spacing. Like, short. Really short. Counting from May 2, 2022 (Truett's DOB) to May 22, 2023, it's just 385 Days (1 Year, 3 Weeks). Even among the top, top producing Predictor Couples, that is extremely fast. Going off Non–Firstborn, Non–Post–Loss Child Spacings, with adjustment for any unexpected, unlikely to recur prematurity (e.g., Josie D.), Truett–to–Baby #2 would be beaten only by 11 Child Spacings. And, that's out of 500(!) Spacings, across my entire spreadsheet. Here's the list—
331 Days Timothy David Rodrigues [Jill's 2nd]
342 Days Audrey Kress Morton [Alyssa (Campana)'s 3rd]
345 Days Grace Ann ("Gracie") Wikstrom [Kristi's 3rd]
348 Days Renee Crystine Rodrigues [Jill's 4th]
359 Days Ronald Michael Smith [Katie (Morton)'s 2nd]
361 Days Coralee Jean Rogers [Courtney's 10th]
364 Days Toby Malachi Mueller [Mary Jane (Stoll)'s 6th]
366 Days Etbauer–Wikstrom #2 (Approx.) [Gracie's 2nd]
367 Days Callie Ann Rogers [Courtney's 4th]
375 Days Colt and Case Rogers [Courtney's Twins]
382 Days Michael Dean Tull [Kaleigh (Holt)'s 2nd]
Clearly, it's not unprecedented—but, it would be impressive!
If Katey was due on May 22, 2023, her prior data indicates that she and Jed would've announced on September 25, 2022. As of today, November 4, 2022, their Baby News would be 40 Days Late. (And, they announced True at Day 41—so, they're already 98% Later than last time.) If we were to use the Overall Duggar data, however, they wouldn't actually be late to announce, at all. They'd be expected to announce at 94 Days Among, on November 17, 2022.
If Duggar–Nakatsu arrives on May 22, 2023, 385 Days after Truett, Jed + Katey's Baseline Procreative Pace (PP) would be 385 Days, which trails just 1 Couple—Gracie (Wikstrom) + Kord Etbauer (366 Days). Their Age–Adjusted Procreative Pace (AAPP), from <25 to >40, would be just 385–508 Days (12.6–16.7 Months). And finally, their ESOQ would be 14 Children, which is 6 Children / 75% More than the Predictor currently thinks they'll have. That's a lot!
Duggar Data thinks Duggar–Nakatsu #2 is probably GrandDuggar #31 or #32, or something. Not #29. But, we'll see! If it is #29, it's unexpected, although not unprecedented, and Jed + Katey will be the Duggar Couple to watch re: Procreative Pace.
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So Joy vlog confrimed 30 grandduggar between born and in utero, and also sayd that Jed and Kate will be the tiebreaker...so who is the misterious #29 ? We now know is a boy but I don't think this help at all
Really? I haven't watched the vlog and can't right now. But I'll watch for sure.
About mystery grandDuggar #29, it might be Josiah&Lauren who had a 3th baby. There was a babyregistry with a due date early may this year. It's soon after they had Daisy but considering they might had another miscarriage between Bella and Daisy it's not that weird they had another baby soon after Daisy.
And nice to know the gender. I think that we can conclude also that Joe&Kendra's 4th baby is a boy.
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Welcome to The World, Jed Jr.!
Oh, Wait... My Bad. Welcome, True!
Defying all expectation, Jed Duggar procreated without naming his child after himself. His and Wife Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar’s Firstborn, Jedidiah Jr. Truett Oliver Duggar, was born on Monday, May 2, 2022, 6:34 PM, at Willow Creek Women’s Hospital in Johnson, AR. He weighed 8 Pounds, 5 Ounces (3.8 kg), and was 20.5 Inches (52.1 cm) long.
Jed + Katey announced the birth on their YouTube, via a 2–Part “Birth Story,” and on Jed’s Instagram. [ Permalink ]
Read on for Baby True’s impact on Jed + Katey’s and the Duggar Data!
When Was Katey’s Due Date?
Katey’s Due Date was, apparently, May 2, 2022. Though Jed initially indicated she was due in April 2022, it seems her Due Date changed to May 2nd. Jed + Katey’s Baby Registry on Amazon listed a Due Date of May 2, 2022, and their Birth Video confirmed that date: Early in Part 1, Jed + Katey are seen in a car, having “just finished church,” and Katey says that her Due Date is “tomorrow.” Later in the video, it becomes clear that that exchange happened the morning of the day Katey went to the hospital to be induced. Given that they had “just finished up church,” it seems that that must’ve been on Sunday, May 1, 2022, which means Katey’s Due Date was May 2nd, just as the registry indicated.
(Also, later in Part 1, Jed confirms that they went in to be induced the evening of May 1, 2022. After they’d been at hospital for a few hours, Jed said for the camera: “It’s 1:30 [AM] right now, on May 2nd.”)
Duggar Data considers May 2, 2022 to be “confirmed” as the Due Date.
Pregnancy Announcement Timing
The Duggar–Nakatsus announced this pregnancy via Instagram and YouTube on September 5, 2021. Due May 2, 2022, Katey was only 41 Days Along—5 Weeks, 6 Days—at the time. (Wow, that’s an early announcement!)
Actually... Jed + Katey set a record, here. No Duggar Couple had gone public with a pregnancy so early in the pregnancy. They beat the next–earliest reveal (Jim Bob + Michelle w/ Jordyn–Grace) by 2 Days. And, looking just at the 2nd Generation Couples, they beat that record by 19 Days. (Josh + Anna revealed two of her pregnancies—Michael and Meredith—at 60 Days Along.)
Prior to Jed + Katey’s 1st Pregnancy Announcement, it was Duggar–typical to announce a pregnancy at 95 Days Along (13 Weeks, 4 Days). Couples tended to announce 1st Pregnancies slightly earlier than that, at 92 Days Along. With Jed + Katey’s data, this shifted to 93 Days Along (–2 Days), in general, and to 86 Days (–6 Days) for 1st Pregnancies. Since then, there have been two more [Non–1st] Pregnancy Announcements, which further shifted things—
Jed + Katey Announced #1 95 Days to 93 Days (–2)
Jill + Derick Announced #4* 93 Days to 95 Days (+2)
John + Abbie Announced #2 95 Days to 98 Days (+3)
Sex / Name Reveal Timing
Jed + Katey posted Truett’s Sex Reveal on YouTube on January 7, 2022. (It’s not relevant to the data, but it appears that they recorded the video weeks or maybe months prior to that. They just didn’t release it until January 7.) When the video went live, Katey was 165 Days Along (23 Weeks, 4 Days).
Prior to Jed + Katey’s Sex Reveal, it was Duggar–typical to do a Sex Reveal at 149 Days Along (21 Weeks, 2 Days). Jed + Katey’s data shifted it to 150 Days Along (+1 Day). Since then, Jill + Derick and John + Abbie have shifted things again, as follows—
Jed + Katey Sex Reveal #1 149 Days to 150 Days (+1)
Jill + Derick Sex Reveal #4* 150 Days to 151 Days (+1)
John + Abbie Sex Reveal #2 151 Days to 151 Days (No Change)
As for Truett’s name, Jed + Katey waited until birth to reveal it, which is typical for the Duggars. To date, only 2 GrandDuggars have had their name revealed prior to birth—Mackynzie Renee Duggar–Keller, and Samuel Scott Dillard.
[ Click Here for a Full, if Slightly Outdated, Post Re: Duggar Name Reveals ]
Delivery vs. Due Date
As established above, Katey’s Due Date w/ True was May 2, 2022. He arrived Exactly On–Time, on May 2, 2022.
Again, this is a Duggar first! Until now, no GrandDuggar (or Duggar) had ever arrived on his or her Due Date, though some came close... Felicity Vuolo and Maryella Duggar–Keller were both 1 Day Early, while Gideon Fosryth and Fern Seewald were both 1 Day Late.
Prior to True’s arrival, the typical Duggar arrived 2 Days Early [1.82]. Factoring in True, it remains 2 Days Early [1.74] (No Significant Change).
Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing
True was born on May 2, 2022. Jed + Katey got married on April 3, 2021—so, that’s a Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing of 394 Days (~13 Months). Here’s how that Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing stacks up w/ the rest of the Duggars—
621 Days Jinger + Jeremy
430 Days John + Abbie
394 Days Jed + Katey
377 Days Josh + Anna
369 Days Jessa + Ben
331 Days Josiah + Lauren (Note—This is theoretical, based on Due Date of Lauren’s 1st Pregnancy, which ended in miscarriage.)
289 Days Jill + Derick
273 Days Joy + Austin, Joe + Kendra
As you can see, Jed + Katey are actually the 3rd Slowest—even though their Firstborn arrived <13 Months after their marriage. That’s wild...
Prior to Jed + Katey, it was typical for a newly–married Duggar to welcome a child after 370 Days. Factoring in Jed + Katey’s data, that shifts to 373 Days (+3 Days). It’s not much, but that’s a slight slow–down!
Procreative Pace / Estimated Size of Quiver (ESOQ)
The Predictor uses a variable called Procreative Pace (PP) to determine future Child Spacing. When possible, PP is based on a couple’s own Child Spacing data, excluding Firstborn Spacing and Post–Loss Spacings, since those Child Spacing types tend to be poor indicators of a couple’s ‘typical’ pace.
Here, as with all 1 Child Couples, there are no Non–Firstborn, Non–Post–Loss Child Spacing data points. Thus, we have to use another method to estimate PP. The method Duggar Data uses is the 2nd Child Multiplier... The 2nd Child Multiplier is essentially the average difference between couples’ Marriage–to–Firstborn and 1st–to–2nd Child Spacings. (Basically, it represents how much longer your ‘typical’ Duggar, Bates, etc., Couple takes to go from Baby #1 to Baby #2, as compared to how long it took to go from Marriage to #1.)
On May 2, 2022 (True’s DOB), the Duggars’ 2nd Child Multiplier was 1.5688x. As such, Jed + Katey’s Procreative Pace (PP) would’ve been 618 Days, since that’s the result of multiplying their Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (394 Days) by 1.5688. But, between True’s DOB and now, there has been new data that shifted the 2nd Child Multiplier: John + Abbie announced her 2nd Pregnancy on May 8, 2022, giving rise to new data that shifted the Multiplier from 1.5688 to 1.7131. Applying the new Multiplier to Jed + Katey’s Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing, their Procreative Pace (PP) is now 675 Days (~22 Months).
At that Procreative Pace, Katey’s Fertility Cut–Off (Age 40.0) leaves sufficient time for her and Jed to have an ESOQ of 10 Children. This is down from 11 Children, immediately after they married. Not a big different, but something.
When To Expect Duggar–Nakatsu #2
As of May 10, 2022, here’s what the Predictor forecasts—
Baby News September 8, 2023 (True will be ~16 Months Old.)
Sex Reveal November 13, 2023
Due Date March 7, 2024
Projected DOB March 7, 2024
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Sorry before i sand a question regarding misterious grandduggar #29 and i mistaken saying that itnwas 30 between born and in utero, i mean to say that #31 Nora Grace (?) From jed and Katey will be the tiebreaker
Yeah, I got what you meant. Joy and Austin just had Gunner who is #30, Brynley (from Jer&Hannah) was #28 and Jed&Katey's daughter Nora Kate is #31. So we are missing one, #29.
And including Daisy and Brynley there are 15 girls so #29 and Joseph&Kendra's #4th have to be boys.
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Is it possible the missing GrandDuggar could be #28 (and Hannah's would be #29, Joy's #30)?
Yes, that’s definitely possible!
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Grandduggar #30
With Jimbob saying baby Forsyth #3 is grandduggar #30 There was a big hole in my spreadsheet. I decided that without any proving otherwise, from now on grandduggar #23 will be noted as Josiah&Lauren's second baby, and grandduggar #25 as Joseph&Kendra's fourth baby. Since first evidence of Josiah&Laurens baby was discovered in april, before Truett's birth and first evidence of Joseph&Kendra's baby was discovered in june, before Freddy's birth.
That just leaves one gap, grandduggar #29. I'm guessing Jessa is pregnant.
But the list of non-pregnant Duggars:
Jinger (youngest 11-22-2020)
Claire (married 2-26-2021)
Jessa (youngest 7-18-2021)
Anna (youngest 10-23-2021)
Lauren (youngest before april 2022)
Katey (youngest 5-2-2022)
Kendra (youngest before june 2022)
Jill (youngest 7-7-2022)
Abbie (youngest september 2022)
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What happend and didn't
What happend and didn't happen (what I predicted would happen) in october:
John&Abbie Duggar announced the birth of Charlie Duggar on october 1th (birthdate unkown)
Trace&Lydia Bates got married on october 1st
Ruth&Ryan Bourlier (Wissmann) announced that they are expecting baby #5 in december '22 on october 5th.
Joy&Austin Forsyth announced that they are expecting baby #3 in may '23 on october 5th.
Jeremiah&Hannah Duggar announced that their baby is a girl on october 10th.
John&Esther Shrader (Keller) announced the birth of their 13th child, Daniel, on october 12th.
Nathanael&Katrina Wissmann got married on october 15th.
Kenna Joy Bates made her entrance in the world on october 17th. She is the daughter of Nathan&Esther Bates.
Alyssa&John Webster announced that after 4 girls they are finaly getting a boy.
We learned from a video from Joy (this time not Jessa) that her baby is grandDuggar #30 confirming (kind off) Josiah&Lauren's #2 and Joseph&Kendra's #4. Plus another mystery baby to keep us on our toes.
Andrew&Kori Wissmann didn't announce pregnancy #3
Elizabeth Wissmann didn't announce a relationship
#fundie#month recap#duggar#burnett#john&abbie#charlieduggar#trace&lydia#bates#romeike#wissmann#ruth&ryan#bourlier#forsyth#joy&austin#jer&hannah#keller#shrader#john&esther#danielshrader#nathanael&katrina#sahlstrom#nathan&esther#keyes#alyssa&john#webster#elizabethwissmann#andrew&kori
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Welcome to The World, Brooklyn Praise!
GrandDuggar #20 is Here... Here’s The Data.
On February 19, 2021, 7:48 PM, Kendra (Caldwell) Duggar gave birth to a baby girl, Brooklyn Praise Duggar. She’s Joe + Kendra Duggar’s Thirdborn, joining Garrett David (b. 2018) and Addison Renee (b. 2019).
Read on to see the impact on Joe + Kendra’s and the Duggars’ Data!
Pregnancy Announcement
Joe + Kendra announced Pregnancy #3 via People on August 19, 2020. With her Approximate Due Date of February 27, 2021, Kendra was ~88 Days Along (12 Weeks, 4 Days), at the time.
Here’s how long Joe + Kendra waited for each Pregnancy Announcement—
#1 / Garrett 99 Days Along
#2 / Addison 71 Days Along
#3 / Brooklyn ~88 Days Along
(Note—We know exact Due Dates for Pregnancies #1 and #2. Garrett was due on Father’s Day 2018, June 17. Addison was due on November 6, 2019.)
Until Brooklyn, it was ‘typical’ for Kendra to announce her pregnancy when she was 85 Days—or, just over 12 Weeks—Along. Factoring in Pregnancy #3, there isn’t much change... It shifts from 85 to 86 Days Along (+1 Day).
As for the Duggar Data... Pre–Brooklyn, it was Duggar–‘typical’ to announce a pregnancy at 94 (94.2) Days Along. With Brooklyn’s data added in, there is No Significant Change. It’s still 94 Days Along (93.9).
Sex Reveal / Name Reveal
The Duggar–Caldwells did the Sex Reveal for their “tie–breaker” on November 30, 2021 via E! Online. (It’s a girl!) Kendra was ~191 Days Along (27 Weeks, 2 Days), at the time.
Here’s Joe + Kendra’s full Sex Reveal Timing data, for each pregnancy—
#1 / Garrett 146 Days Along
#2 / Addison 146 Days Along (Same as Garrett!)
#3 / Brooklyn ~191 Days Along
As you can see, Brooklyn’s was Joe + Kendra’s latest Sex Reveal, so far. With Garrett and Addison, they did the Sex Reveal at 146 Days Along (or 20 Weeks, 6 Days). With Brooklyn, they did the Sex Reveal ~45 Days (or ~6 Weeks) Later, at ~191 Days Along. Doing the math, it is now ‘typical’ for them to do the Sex Reveal at 161 Days Along (+15 Days).
Joe + Kendra waited until birth to announce Baby #3′s name, just like they did with Garrett and Addison.
Turning to the Overall Duggar Data.. Prior to Brooklyn’s, it was Duggar–typical that, if a Sex Reveal was done, it was done at 146 Days Along. Adding in data from Brooklyn, that shifts to 149 Days Along (+3 Days).
Delivery vs. Due Date
Kendra’s Approximate Due Date was February 27, 2021, but Brooklyn arrived on February 19, 2021—i.e., ~8 Days Early. Note that this is only 1 Day Off of the Predictor’s guess... Which was February 20th.
Here’s all of Kendra’s Delivery vs. Due Date Data, so far—
#1 / Garrett 9 Days Early
#2 / Addison 4 Days Early
#3 / Brooklyn ~8 Days Early
Prior to Brooklyn, it was ‘typical’ for Kendra to deliver 1 Week (6.5 Days) Early. Factoring in Brooklyn, there’s No Significant Change. It’s still 7 Days Early.
Pre–Brooklyn, it was a ‘typical’ GrandDuggar arrived 2 Days (1.55 Days) Early. Brooklyn shifted that to 2 Days Early (1.85 Days). No Significant Change.
Birthweight & Length
According to E! Online and Joe + Kendra, Brooklyn was 7 Pounds, 3 Ounces, and 20.25 Inches Long, at birth.
Here’s the Birthweight / Length for each of the Duggar–Caldwells—
#1 / Garrett 7 Pounds, 8 Ounces / 20.5 Inches
#2 / Addison 7 Pounds, 12.5 Ounces / 20.5 Inches
#3 / Brooklyn 7 Pounds, 3 Ounces / 20.25 Inches
Doing the math... Pre–Brooklyn, your ‘typical’ Duggar–Caldwell’s Birthweight / Length was 7 Pounds, 10 Ounces and 20.5 Inches. Factoring in Brooklyn, the ‘typical’ Duggar–Caldwell is now 7 Pounds, 8 Ounces (–2 Ounces) and ~20.4 Inches Long (–0.1 Inch), at birth.
Impact on Child Spacing
Joe + Kendra are keeping up an incredibly fast pace. Here’s all of their Child Spacing data, so far—
Wedding to Garrett 273 Days
Garrett to Addison 512 Days
Addison to Brooklyn 475 Days
Until the 3rd Pregnancy Announcement, Joe + Kendra’s Procreative Pace was based entirely on their Garrett to Addison Child Spacing. (Firstborn Spacings don’t count towards Procreative Pace.) After they announced, Baby #3 had a Projected DOB of February 20th—and thus, the Projected Addison to Baby #3 Spacing was 476 Days. This was averaged in with the Garrett to Addison gap (512 Days), and their working Procreative Pace was 494 Days. Now that Baby #3 is here, and arrived a day earlier than expected, that shifts ever–so–slightly to 493.5 Days... But, that rounds to 494 Days, so No Significant Change since announcing the pregnancy—but, Pregnancy #3 occurred faster than expected, so the overall shift was from 512 to 494 Days (18 Days Faster).
As for the Overall, Duggar Data... The Addison to Brooklyn Spacing is quick—even for the Duggars. As a result, it shifts the Duggar ‘Typical’ Pace from 548 Days to 545 Days (–3 Days). (It’s a small change because, at this point, it’s a lot of data points!)
Impact on ESOQ / Total Grands
Immediately after Addison’s Birth, Joe + Kendra’s ESOQ was 16 Children. (It was actually 16.75ish—but you can’t have part of a child, so it rounds down.) Now, after Brooklyn’s Birth, their ESOQ is 17 Children (+1 Child).
As of February 25, 2021, the Predicted Total # of GrandDuggars is 240.
When To Expect Baby #4
Here’s what the Predictor is forecasting for Duggar–Caldwell #4, based on Joe + Kendra’s Data—
Baby News December 23, 2021
Sex Reveal March 8, 2022
Due Date July 5, 2022
Birthdate June 28, 2022
Name Reveal At Birth
We’ll see, I guess. Congrats to the new parents. Hope Kendra is doing well.
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