#hilary vs trump | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

qqueenofhades · 3 months

Note

I just read an article on The Conversation that states: "Today, most data has Trump narrowly beating Biden in the national popular vote, albeit within the statistical margin of error." (Source for that data: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)

In your opinion, is that true? How can that be possible after everything Trump has done? After the Insurrection? I'm terrified 😕

(For reference, the original article can be found at https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-why-trumps-republican-opponents-were-never-going-to-beat-him-223288?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202888329325&utm_content=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202888329325+CID_fceedfd21410eb8a7b6fd6e1124d9d54&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=five%20reasons)

Short answer: no, I don't think it's true.

Long answer: no, I really don't think it's true. Here's why.

Broader context. A Republican has won the popular presidential vote only twice in the 21st century, and in the first of those occasions -- 2000 -- I use "won" very advisedly. We all know, or at least we should, about all the fuckery that went down in Florida with Bush vs. Gore and SCOTUS stepping in to stop the recount (which almost surely would have gone to Gore) and handing Florida, and thus the presidency, to George Dubya Bush by a mere 537 votes. Dubya then did win re-election and the popular vote/EC in 2004, in the throes of patriotic war fervor and the GOP's Swiftboating of John Kerry (who was a pretty terrible candidate to start with). Other than that? None. Zip. Nada. None. Even in 2016 when Trump squeaked out a win (and thus the presidency) in the Electoral College, he lost nationwide to HRC by over 3 million votes. He lost to Biden by 7 million votes nationwide last time. Also, the reason the GOP loves the antidemocratic Electoral College is that it always works in their favor, and because red states with relatively scant population are given the same power in the Senate. That's why California, with 40+ million people, gets two (Democratic) senators, and Wyoming, with 400,000 people, gets two (Republican) senators. There is just no way that red states can get the actual raw numbers to win the popular vote against heavily blue urban population centers. The only one that comes close is Texas, and while it's something of a white whale for Democrats who think fondly that it'll surely turn blue this election cycle (and then it doesn't), it's not giving all its votes popular-vote-wise to Republicans. So yeah. The numbers aren't there. Biden is about 99% certain to win the popular vote, but because this is America, the question is whether the EC will follow.

(Although, I gotta say. In the deeply unlikely event that Biden loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College -- i.e. the exact same thing Trump did in 2016 -- the right wing would lose their fucking minds and it would be incredibly hilarious. Also, we might finally get some red states willing to sign up to the National Popular Vote Compact, which is just a few ratifications away from going into effect. As noted, the Republicans will cling onto the Electoral College with their last dying breath because it's the only thing that makes them competitive in nationwide elections. If it fucked Trump, they might finally listen to ideas about changing it.)

The media are incredibly biased, and so is Nate Silver. Silver first rose to prominence as an independent geeky Data Guy elections whiz-kid, and was relatively good at being unbiased. That is not the case anymore. He's now affiliated with the New York Times and has started echoing the smugly anti-Biden framework of both that paper and the mainstream media in general. I'm not necessarily saying his data is total bunk, but he's extremely eager to frame, narrate, and explain it in ways that artificially disadvantage Biden (in the same way the NYT itself is all in on "BUT HIS AGEEEEE," just as they were with "BUT HER EEEEEEMAILS" in 2016) And that's a problem, because:

The polls are shit. Like, really, really shit. Didn't we just go through this in 2022, where everyone howled about how All The Data pointed to a Red Wave and then were /shocked pikachu face when this was nothing more than a Red Dribble of Piss (and frankly, the best midterm election result for the ruling party since like, the 1930s?) We've also had major, real-time proof that the polls are showing a consistent pro-Trump bias of 10 or more points, which is a huge error and keeps getting corrected whenever people actually vote, but the media will never admit that, because TRUMP IS WINNING WE ARE ALL DOOMZED!! We heard about how Biden might lose New Hampshire because he wasn't even on the ballot and that would be a critical embarrassment for him. He cruised easily with 68% (all write-in votes and FAR more than any other Democratic "candidate.") Meanwhile, Trump won New Hampshire by about 15% under what the polls had predicted for him (after doing the same and barely squeaking over 50% in Iowa, one of the whitest, most rural, most Trump-loving states in the nation). The number ballparked for Biden in the NV Democratic primary was something like 75%; he got over 90% (and twice as many votes as any candidate in the Republican Primary/Caucus/Whatever That Mess Was). The number for what he was supposed to get in the SC primary was in the high 60% (driven by the media's other favorite "Black voters are abandoning Biden" canard); he absolutely crushed it at 97% statewide. When Biden is winning by whopping margins and Trump is underperforming badly, in both cases by gaps of ten percent or more, it means the polls are simply not showing us an accurate state of the race. This could be because of media bias, bad data, selective polling, inability to actually connect with voters (especially young voters, who are about as likely to eat a live scorpion as to pick up an unsolicited phone call from an unknown number). This also shows up in:

Special elections. We've heard tons of Very Smart Punditry (derogatory) about how Democrats kicking ass in pretty much every competitive election since Roe was overturned in 2022 totally means nothing for the general election. (Of course, if the situation was reversed and Republicans were cleaning up at the same rate, we would be hearing nothing except how we're all destined for Eternal Trumpocracy... wait. no... we're still only hearing this. Weird.) In the last special election in early February, Democrat Tom Suozzi won back his old U.S House seat (NY-03) by over eight points, after polls had given him at most a two- or three-point edge. (Funnily, once again a Democrat did far better than the media is determined to insist, so Politico hilariously called a thumping eight-point win "edging it out.") This represents almost a 16-point blue swing from even just 2022, when The Congressman Possibly Known as George Santos won it by 7 points. On that same night, a Democratic candidate in a Trump +26 district in deep, deep red Oklahoma only lost by 5 points, marking another massive pro-blue swing. This has been the case in every special election since Roe went down. Apparently blah blah This Won't Translate to the General Election, because the media is very smart. Even when Democrats (historically hard to motivate and muster in off-year election cycles, or you know in general) are turning up in elections that don't involve Trump to punish terrible Trumpist policies, we're supposed to think they won't be motivated to actually vote against the guy himself? And not just them, because:

Trump is a terrible candidate. Which we know, and have always known, but now it's really true. We've had up to half of Haley voters stating they will vote for Biden over Trump if that is the November matchup (which it will be). Haley, amusingly, actually outraised Trump in January, because it turns out that the Trump Crime Family's open promise to send every single donor or RNC dollar to pay El Trumpo's legal fees hasn't been a terribly effective message. We had Republicans in NY-03 telling CNN that they voted for the Democrat Suozzi because they're so fed up with the GOP clown show in the House and don't think Republicans can govern (which uh. Yeah. Welcome to reality, we all knew that ages ago too). We have had up to a third of Republican voters saying they won't vote for Trump if he's convicted of a felony before the election (and technically he already has been, but we're still hoping for the January 6 trial to go ahead). Now, yes, Republicans are a notoriously cliquey bunch and might change their minds, but for all the endless bullshit BIDEN SHOULD STEP DOWN BECAUSE DEMOCRATS ARE DISUNITED narrative the media has been pushing like their kidnapped grandmothers' lives depend on it, Democrats aren't actually disunited at all. Instead, Trump is in chaos, the GOP is in chaos, sizeable chunks of Republican voters are ready to vote for someone else and in some cases have already done so, and yet, do we hear a peep about how Trump should step down? Nah. In related news, did you hear that Biden is old?!?! Why isn't anyone writing about this?!?!

Now, I want to make it clear: Trump's chances of winning are not zero, and they are not inconsiderable. We need to face that fact and deal with it accordingly. Large chunks of the country are still willing to vote for white Christian nationalist fascism. Trump still has plenty of diehard cultists and the entire establishment Republican party in his pocket, and it's been made very clear that Putin is bringing the full force of his malevolent Russian fascist machine to bear on this election as well. Case in point: we spent four years hearing about HUNTER BIDEN HUNTER BIDEN SECRET CORRUPTION GIANT SECRET BUSINESS SCANDAL, and it turns out that the GOP's "star informant" has been actively working with Russian spies the whole time and fed them complete bullshit disinformation, which they were eager to repeat so long as it might hurt Joe Biden. (And it would hurt Ukraine, so, twofer! I cannot emphasize enough how much it was all a deliberate collaboration by some of the worst people on earth.)

In 2016, people naively assumed that Trump could never win, and so they were especially willing to throw away, spoil, or otherwise not exercise their vote, or throw purity hissy fits over HRC (likewise fed at the toxic teat of Russian disinformation). That was exactly what allowed Trump to squeak out a win in the EC and put us in the mess we are currently in. If people act in the same way in 2024 that they did in 2016, Trump's chances of winning are drastically increased. So once again, as I keep saying, it's up to us. If we all vote blue, and we get our networks to vote blue, Biden is very likely to win. If we don't, he won't, and Trump will win. It's that simple. We had better decide what we're doing. The end.

#jayciethings #ask #politics for ts #long post

168 notes · View notes

raven-at-the-writing-desk · 7 months

Note

Its been a while since I read the eng translation on Masquerade JP, but didn’t Malleus confess about being afraid of rollo? I would find it hilarious if he did. Especially since I feel like it would be a jab at Leona’s pride, he thot he was his arch nemesis💀 the one to bring fear into the powerful dragon, the one who can stand toe to toe with, the one that malleus can look him in the eye and say he’s a worthy opponent…Nope, it’s Rollo.

the twink that eats a few grapes and a croissant was able to scare Malleus Draconia himself, one of the top 5 mages in the world. And he did it less than a few days 🙃

You’re remembering correctly! In 5-5 (and then again in 5-18) of Glorious Masquerade, Malleus himself states that Rollo has actually made him feel fear. (Malleus also says in 3-7 that he may fear the flowers.) I think it was only 1-2 days max for the event though?

The first angry cat got trumped and outdone by a second, far angrier cat 💀 Leona thought he could bring Malleus to his knees with an easily avoidable (with magic) stampede… He thought on a scale that was too small 🙄 Obviously, you should threaten not only Malleus’s safety but also that of his people, his beloved gargoyles, and Twisted Wonderland as we known it. That’s what’s going to nab you that coveted “Malleus’s Archnemesis” status/j

It’s even stupider when you realize that, of the two, Rollo acts much more goofy (even if his intentions aren’t goofy). Like… not only are Rollo’s monologues and brooding about how he’ll finally triumph over Malleus and all mages far longer than Leona fixating on Malleus, but bro literally pulled a lever that acrivates TRAP DOORS for the NRC students to fall through 🤡 THAT SHIT AIN’T NORMAL… SEEK HELP AT ONCE, FLAMME

I think there’s something to be said about just how tenacious Rollo is as well. That is the trait of his which ultimately earns him Malleus’s fear: because, despite being a mere human and all the blows he has been dealt up until that point (including a particularly devastating blast of double the damage he inflicted onto the SSR trio), Rollo still manages to stand back up. (Reminder that he’s been excessively spellcasting up until this point, trying to roast the NRC boys into a fine crisp.) Not only that, but he unleashes his UM right after and keeps trying to take them on, 3 vs 1. Most impressive of all????? Even though Rollo is using up so much magic, even though he’s feeling so many overwhelming and negative emotions, he NEVER Overblots. That is some extreme mental fortitude right there 😭 I have to applaud it…

And then you think about how neurotic Rollo is (the 2 croissants, 16 grapes, 1 cafe au lait lunch everyday SENDS me every time) and how easily set off he is by little inconveniences (like a goat eating his stationary) and it becomes even funnier because of how “lame” Rollo is in his daily life 😩 The power of sheer spite powered him through it all, and Malleus has no choice but to respect and to fear him for it/j

#twisted wonderland #twst #Leona Kingscholar #Malleus Draconia #Rollo Flamme #disney twisted wonderland #spoilers #notes from the writing raven

172 notes · View notes

mochinomnoms · 4 months

Note

I was thinking about differences between the land cultures of TWST vs and the aquatic because if environmental differences. Anyway some fun things I thought about you may get a kick out of:

-keeping animals like isopods and shrimps as pets (maybe a reason why Yuu is called Shrimpy). I really just want to visit the mer mafia's homes, find a chunky isopod, and just hold it and give it kisses

-the mer trio didn't know what onions were until going on land. I can see Jade or Floyd learning to cook with different ingredients and just them cutting an onion for the first time. Their faces would be hilarious. Or when they use peppers for the first time and make the mistake of rubbing their eyes. The tweels then trick Azul to have both things happen to him as well

-you know how dolphins will fuck with pufferfish to get high? I can see Floyd doing that and maybe even Jade too. They get to land and Floyd is all sad he can't get high and Jade is like "well I have mushrooms for that but you hate them so I wont-" Floyd grabbing him by the collar "GIVE ME THE DRUGS".

I feel that Floyd's hatred for mushrooms trumps any need to get high. That's alright, I’m sure Ruggie can point him to the direction of edible weeds lmaooo

Food-wise, I think I read somewhere the twins and/or Azul discussing learning how to cook with new foods on land. But I think Azul had more exposure due to his mother. For sure about the peppers tho, those seeds are the real culprits.

But yes, isopod pets!! They get so chonky and are babies, Mrs. Leech has one that she's fond of. Jade and Floyd grew up alongside the chubby shrimp which would play with them, like those cat/baby videos. Though Floyd calling you Shrimpy would then have the same implications of a person calling their crush Puppy or Kitten, so make of that what you will.

#mochi asks #twst #twisted wonderland

69 notes · View notes

dicapiito · 6 months

Text

House is controlled by GOP white evangelical Mike Johnson and for things to pass, 218 votes are needed and the GOP has the most House seats

Senate is only marginally Democratically controlled but for things to pass; Senate needs to have 60 votes and with Manchin retiring; it’s imperative to vote or Mitch McConnell gets to be the Senate majority leader again

Supreme Court is GOP controlled since Trump elected THREE Supreme Court Justices and got to overturn Roe Vs Wade and have even more overturning up their sleeves. Something Hilary Clinton warned people about should he have been elected

So for those who want to not vote; here’s the GOP plan for everyone who’s not white

So DO NOT listen to those idiotic leftists who don’t know basic shit about US politics but once again a reminder that white people vote in every single election. EVERY SINGLE ELECTION.

They’re counting on leftists and third party candidates to help the GOP get back into power in all three branches and if they succeed; then we will never see Democracy again but live in a fascist country where only yt people get to live even more comfortable lives while the rest suffer.

#us elections #presidential elections #state elections #us politics

62 notes · View notes

gendercensus · 1 year

Text

Twitter vs. Mastodon

Just in case anyone was curious about how well Twitter is doing these days:

Even though Mastodon has about a fifth fewer boosts than Twitter has RTs, Mastodon is bringing about as many participants as Twitter. For context, I have been posting a little bit on each since the survey opened, but more on Mastodon than Twitter. Also, in the survey itself participants are invited to help promote the survey, and links are provided for both the promotional tweet on Twitter and the promotional post on Mastodon.

Usually the number of RTs the promotional tweet gets follows a pattern much like the survey participation itself. The first two days or so are the most intense, and then it gradually declines over the rest of the month. I'd expect to get about half (or maybe over half) the total RTs within 48 hours, I think?

So, for context, last year's promotional tweet currently has 2,983 RTs and 122 QTs, and by now I'd expect this year's tweet to have at least a third of the RTs and QTs it'll have by the end. It's 27 hours since the survey opened, and the Twitter promotional tweet has 600 RTs and 29 QTs, which would theoretically end up being something like 1,800 RTs and 87 WTs. That's a drop in engagement of about a third, in less than a year.

I'm curious because all of this rubbish with Elon Musk has been continuously kicking off since November 2022, and it was already starting to get tumbleweedy on Twitter before I stopped using it in a personal capacity (around when Andrew Tate's and Donald Trump's accounts were reinstated). It's truly impressive seeing how quickly and how dramatically Twitter is becoming politically and ambiently even more awful than it was, not to mention the increase in bugs and loss of functionality. Despite its many flaws I did actually genuinely like Twitter pre-Musk, and its degradation puts me in a state of near-wordless awe. It's sort of morbidly hilarious.

The Gender Census Twitter account currently has 3,269 followers. I seriously considered announcing that I would no longer be using the account, but if there are people who only know about the Gender Census via the Twitter account that'd be pretty unfair on them.

So, I will continue to use both accounts, but when Mastodon is ahead by a significant amount I will close the Twitter account.

PS: Take the gender census survey if your gender is a bit interesting! It closes no sooner than 9th May 2023. :)

Edit 2023-04-15: This year, the TERF influx is coming from Twitter rather than the usual Facebook, which I think is also quite telling.

#twitter #mastodon #fediverse #meta

84 notes · View notes

1eos · 10 hours

Text

crazy that my first presidential election was trump vs hilary and it's even crazier that things have gotten exponentially worse each time

#and im supposed to believe the evil living corpse that has done 0 net good #will do something this time around for sure #ive had enough quite honestly

8 notes · View notes

luckyladylily · 5 months

Note

What do you think about Arab Americans refusing to vote Democrat unless they condemn the genocide in Gaza? I kinda feel like every post I've seen arguing against refusing to vote sidesteps that whole issue, including your own. Asking you specifically because you at least acknowledge the genocide in the post.

Alright, so the problem in Gaza is not a democrat problem, its an America problem. This is not about who is currently in power, but about 70 years of foreign policy and over seas American interests. The democrats will never abandon that because a relatively small amount of us on the left threaten to withhold our vote. Once again, it comes down to simple election math. I've explained this before on this blog again and again.

Depending on your area, progressives are up to around 10% of the population, and losing a progressive vote costs the democrat one vote. Centrists make up a minimum of 15%, with even greater numbers in the swing states that actually matter. And a centrist flipping from democrat to republican effectively costs 2 votes for the democrats - a flipped vote for republicans hurts twice as much as losing a leftist. This means that for any action they make to appease the left they have to gain twice as many votes as they lose centrists.

If the left wants to play this kind of election game we need to establish ourselves as a powerful voting block. But for the past 30 years people on the left have been hemming and hawing about voting in elections like Hilary vs Trump and Gore vs Bush and not showing up when it is clearly in our best interest. We have not done what is necessary to establish ourselves as a powerful voting block. If we had, if we hadn't been such lazy cowards about voting strategically, if we had established ourselves as an important, core voting block for the democrats then maybe we could attempt a move like this now. But we didn't. We were a bunch of useless cowards wringing our hands about how Hillary Clinton just didn't excite us, so why the fuck would the establishment democrats give a shit? We are a fickle, useless voting base that couldn't even take California for Bernie.

Meanwhile centrists are extremely reliable. That is a voting block with an extremely strong record. They will vote in high numbers every election in every state, especially swing states. And if they do not vote democrat, they will vote republican.

So on the one hand, we have the left, a small, unreliable, and fickle voting block, and on the other hand we have centrists, a sizable, reliable, consistent voting block that effectively counts double. Who do you think they are going to cater to?

If we want to use electoral politics like this to force change then we are going to need to put a lot of work over a long period of time. Work we on the left have not taken seriously for decades. It is absurd to think that we can suddenly enter the game at this late date and be taken seriously as a voting block. It's asinine.

For that matter, if we really wanted to avert this genocide happening now we should have been working at it seriously for decades. We've all seen the posts by now and read the history, this has been coming for decades. It was just a matter of when it was convenient for Israel to pull the trigger. But we, as the left, have not been making the concerted effort to influence moderate politics that would be required to shift American foreign policy like this. No, far too many of us have been so very concerned about keeping our personal hands clean or just being fucking lazy and not wanting to talk to moderates because it's not as fun as calling for le epic revolution. If every progressive for the past 30 years had made a strong effort to teach the basics of anti colonial politics to the general moderate left, centrist, and moderate right populations, using well considered arguments that appeal to their sensibilities, then this genocide might have been stopped in its infancy. Instead, we didn't. We sat around and complained about racist uncles and dropped friends at the first sign of them being less than perfect and created insular, echo chamber communities where we yell about settlers and a bunch of other bullshit and did nothing. We didn't do the work required. Trying to patch that over in a panic with electoral politics, which we also didn't do the work for, is terrible strategy. No one will be impressed.

And its not like the left's heart has really be in it for fighting this genocide, not completely. Oh, we made a reasonable effort at protest, but since we didn't do the work in either electoral politics or grassroots politics our entire strategy has had to rely on mass protest, which frankly we have not done to nearly the degree required to make up for our other shortcomings. Do you remember the 2020 BLM protests? We have never come close to that kind of disruption in our anti genocide protests. Which is understandable, protesting is dangerous and costly and difficult, but because we were too lazy or high minded to engage in either electoral strategies or mass grassroots conversion strategies up to this point mass protest is all we've got. We bet everything on protests and outrage. But it's not enough. The great flaw of betting everything on protest and outrage is that we can't keep it up forever because it is so costly. We are burnt out from years of protesting and dealing with Covid. It wasn't a month after this whole mess started that people were talking about fatigue and burnout. We don't have near the means or will to deliver the kind of mass riots that would be required to force an abrupt and massive change to American foreign policy. We might be able to cut the genocide short if we keep it up, and therefore we should absolutely keep it up, but frankly stopping it in its tracks was never in the cards for a political group as weak as the US left.

I understand the frustration or even hatred people feel towards democrats right now, I really fucking get it, but doubling down on proven failed strategies in a panic is not the answer. If we start establishing ourselves as an effective voting block now and we start a concerted effort to reach out to moderates and centrists now maybe in 20 years, if we are lucky, we will be powerful enough to throw around our weight with electoral politics. Maybe we will make it in time to avert the next genocide, or maybe us holding that kind of power will mean it never comes to genocide in the first place. But until that time we have no choice but to work within the constraints the failures of the US left of the past decades have left us with.

So I understand the idea, but I am sorry to say it simply will not work. As I said in my other post, the *only* thing you should be thinking of at an election is how it will effect your political goals. For the near future at the very least, vote withholding strategies will not advance any of our political goals and will almost certainly hinder many of them. It is a bad strategy and should not be employed.

#us centric

7 notes · View notes

thisurlwasnttakenbutnowitis · 7 months

Text

Every Epic Rap Battle of History Ranked, Part 2

Part 1

57. Genghis Khan vs Easter Bunny

Winner: Easter Bunny

Best line: "The Great Wall couldn't keep you out of China. Watch me rub my foot for luck and stick it right up your vagina!"

Okay, okay, this is probably higher than it has any right to be, but damn it, I just love this pairing. You have a historical warlord famous for his brutality battling with a peaceful holiday icon for kids and I think the contrast is hilarious. It's nothing spectacular, but this has to be my favorite of season 1's "two completely random characters with no relation" battles.

56. Wonder Woman vs Stevie Wonder

Winner: Wonder Woman

Best line: "My rhymes are signed, sealed, and delivered on time. You're a bald has-been, I'm in my Amazon Prime!"

While I was always aware of Stevie Wonder's music, this battle actually made me look into it and appreciate it more. I love the touch of how Stevie's music style in this is a mix of his own as well as that of his actor, T-Pain. Also the quote above might just be one of my favorite lines in ERB history - I LOVE when a line can manage to mix in wordplay that relates to both rappers. Mwah, chef's kiss.

55. Master Chief vs Leonidas

Winner: Master Chief

Best line: "300 asses need a kickin'. Give more teebags than Lipton."

We're in the section of the list of good battles with nothing to really complain about, but also with nothing spectacular so there's not really much to say. I'm not a Halo guy so some of the references went over my head - I didn't get "You're the solider they need you to be" until looking it up just now, and yeah, that's a pretty funny line that I didn't appreciate when I was younger. It was also a good call to have Lloyd still be the voice of Leonidas but cast an actual muscular man to be the body actor; we definitely didn't need another Hulk Hogan muscle suit situation.

54. Goku vs Superman

Winner: Goku

Best line: "There's only one way that this battle's gonna end: One more Superman who's never gonna walk again."

Ray William Johnson was a great casting choice for Goku; he brings a lively and memorable performance to the show. Although I didn't think Goku was quite so angry? Idk, I'm also not a Dragon Ball guy (forgive me for being such an uncultured swine and not knowing a lot of these series). Lloyd's Superman is pretty basic by comparison; it gets the job done, but it's like Sinatra vs Mercury where it gets overshadowed hard by the other performer.

53. Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney

Winner: Mitt Romney

Best line: "Republicans need a puppet and you fit. Got their hand so far up your rear, call you Mitt."

Man, remember when we thought Mitt Romney was the worst the Republican party could throw at us? Simpler times, man. Simpler times. This battle is the most-viewed in ERB history, which I think is kinda weird since I feel like people were way more into the 2016 and 2020 elections overall. But this was also the first election battle, and when ERB was still a relatively new series, so maybe it was the novelty of it at the time. Or maybe because Obama and Romney were both more well-liked than Trump, Clinton, and Biden. I dunno, I'm getting off-track here.

I thought for years that this battle was pretty well-balanced in terms of not showing favoritism to one side, though I thought Romney's line "I'm not gonna let this battle be dictated by facts" was a pretty biased writing choice. But it turns out that that's almost a direct quote from Romney himself, so uhh. I also love how both opponents break down into slinging childish insults at each other by the end, it really goes to show that it's not glorifying either candidate. And that's proven true by the iconic scene of Abe Lincoln coming down and bitchslapping them both. Classic.

The real Obama is known to have seen this battle too and apparently liked it given that he invited Peter and the actor who played Obama here to the White House, so that's neat.

52. John Wick vs John Rambo vs John McClane

Winner: John McClane

Best line: "And lighten up, Wick, with your brooding saga. How 'bout a little hakuna matata, Baba Yaga?"

This is the first and so far only battle that's a three-way fight from the start, so that really ensures that all three characters are given ample time to all diss each other. I like it! The highlight here is definitely Lloyd's McClane, he's a delight to watch, and he perfectly captures how McClane is the lighthearted everyman of the group. Zach's John Wick is no slouch either, capturing the cool seriousness of the character. Where this battle falls flat though, and the only reason it's not in A, is Peter's Rambo. It's trying to be funny and it's just… not really funny. It's the kind of Sylvester Stallone impression that would get a chuckle out of you if your high school friend did it in the halls, but it just feels out of place in a professional production like this.

I love the subtle ways the backing track changes between characters too, with McClane getting some sleigh bells added in for his part, Wick getting a deep synth noise, and Rambo getting some somber strings. Really nice stuff.

51. Artists vs TMNT

Winner: TMNT

Best line: "Uh, Dona-tell me who you are again, dude, 'Cause I don't Gattamelata clue what you do."

My only complaint about this battle is that it's just too damn short. This would be a pretty short battle even by 1-on-1 standards, but when you have 8 separate characters, each one barely gets anything to say. But what's here is great. Rhett and Link and Smosh is a good pairing that gives a lot of energy to the artists, and the turtle suit that the team managed to make for the TMNT is great. When the only negative I can think of for a battle is that I wish there was more of it, you know it's a good battle.

A TIER

50. George Carlin vs Richard Pryor

Winner: Joan Rivers

Best line: "Now there's seven words you can't say on a TV set. But this is the pissin' fuckin' cuntin' internet!"

I'm realizing now how much work this entire thing is given how much I've written so far and we're only just now cracking the top 50. Still not even halfway there, damn. But anyway, this is a great tribute to a whole bunch of legendary comedians. It's a whole lot of fun to watch, and every performer captures the larger-than-life personalities on display. Lloyd's Robin Williams is a particular highlight. The only downside is Bill Cosby's part, it's not really funny and kinda just kills the pace. But it's thankfully short so it's not enough to ruin it.

49. Mario Bros vs Wright Bros

Winner: Wright Bros

Best line: "You might fly like a hawk, but you fight like a kitty!"

This was the first guest appearance of Rhett and Link and also the first 2-on-2 battle, and I think it does a really good job. Mario and Luigi are played absolutely nothing like their actual characters, but it's so far off that it's honestly hilarious.

48. David Copperfield vs Harry Houdini

Winner: David Copperfield

Best line: "My grand illusions make your parlor tricks irrelevant. The foot of Lady Liberty is stomping on your elephant."

Now THIS is a magician vs magician battle that actually lives up to the idea visually, eat your heart out, Gandalf vs Dumbledore. While Houdini is definitely the more interesting person to watch in this battle with all of the stunts he performs while rapping, I can't help but like Peter's silky smooth Copperfield voice, it's gotta be one of my favorite voices he's done.

47. Eastern Philosophers vs Western Philosophers

Winner: Eastern Philosophers

Best line: "You tried to plant a new German psyche, but you just grew hate, me no Third Reichy!"

This is a very smartly-written battle, as it should be given the subject matter. Every philosopher gets a chance to sum up what they're all about, and the contrasts work perfectly - Lao Tzu's philosophy of letting life take you through its natural course vs Nietzsche saying you need to take control and fight for the life you want, and Confucius's teaching of respecting authority vs Voltaire's challenging of authority. …Socrates vs Sun Tzu doesn't really have a direct contrast like that, but hey, that's okay. You can tell a lot of research went into this one, and it's really worth looking into the meanings of the lyrics because some of it will definitely go over your head if you're not super into philosophy.

46. Blackbeard vs Al Capone

Winner: Al Capone

Best line: "You spent time in Alcatraz, I'm sure you were fine, if you dropped the soap as little as you drop dope rhymes."

Both Peter and Lloyd were clearly having fun with this one, they're both in their element when they're playing characters with big personalities and fun voices to imitate. The lyrics are great and dense too; this was the first battle of season 3 besides Vader vs Hitler 3, and I think season 3 is really when the series started hitting its stride with rappers' verses becoming longer and more packed with deeper meanings.

I only have two minor criticisms with this battle - first, Blackbeard's beard looks way too nice and clean, and it's especially apparent when Capone has a line about how dirty it is. Second, this video was sponsored by Assassin's Creed IV, which is all well and good, but forcing in a line about Edward Kenway and having him physically appear in the background really destroys my suspension of disbelief and dates the video hardcore. But neither of these things are enough to ruin an otherwise very good battle.

45. Rick Grimes vs Walter White

Winner: Walter White

Best line: "Ask Gus, you don't wanna face off against me."

Okay, so, confession time: I have not watched either of the shows that are represented in this battle (Breaking Bad is on my to-watch list though). And oops, this vid's got a lot of spoilers for both series. Ah well. Despite not knowing a whole lot about either universe, I still think this battle is a lot of fun to watch. I particularly love the detail of a zombie crossing into Walt's side and getting distracted by meth - touches like that to tie the worlds of the two rappers together are always a treat.

44. Darth Vader vs Hitler

Winner: Hitler

Best line: "You stink, Vader. Your style smells something sour. You need to wash up, dog. Here, step in my shower."

Here we go. While Lennon vs O'Reilly might have come first, I think we can all agree that this is the real start of ERB. This is what made the series into a viral sensation and it's not hard to see why. The novelty of seeing a historical figure battle his fictional equivalent in a rap battle of all things was something unseen up until that point, and it helps that the lyrics were incredibly clever to boot - in addition to the iconic quote above, who could forget "So many dudes been with your mom, who even knows if I'm your father". I'm sure Disney would like everyone to forget that the Stormtroopers were named after Hitler's troops, but this battle stands as an eternal reminder of that fact.

43. Mr. T vs Mr. Rogers

Winner: Mr. Rogers

Best line: "I'll say this once, Laurence. I hope it's understood: Get right back in your van and get the fuck out of my neighborhood."

Peter's acting here is pretty similar to how he portrayed Bob Ross, but his portrayal of Mr. Rogers easily wins in my mind for how much more savage the insults are. Even though Rogers definitely steals the show here, Mr. T also manages to be very entertaining. It's hilarious how he's screaming at Rogers the whole time while Rogers consistently keeps his cool while hurling passive-aggressive lines.

Also, whew! We're officially halfway done with this list!

42. Jacques Cousteau vs Steve Irwin

Winner: Steve Irwin

Best line: "I'm a wild man, you're a subdued sub dude. The only crocs you could handle are some slip-on shoes!"

This battle's an interesting role reversal - usually it's Lloyd portraying the grumpy character and Peter portraying the lively one. But it goes to show that the two of them have the acting chops to go either way. Especially Lloyd, he's really entertaining when he can let his silliness out. I love how in the part where Steve is pointing to Jacques and talking about him like he's a wild animal, you can tell Peter is holding in laughter.

41. Tony Hawk vs Wayne Gretzky

Winner: Wayne Gretzky

Best line: "You and I have so many world records between us. 184, that's plenty of 'em… and I set 183 of 'em!"

This is a very slept-on battle, being the lowest-viewed of any of the pre-hiatus battles (though 18 million views still certainly ain't bad). I still remember my first time watching this battle as someone who didn't really know anything about Wayne Gretzky aside from "he was a hockey player", my jaw fucking dropped at that world records line. Absolutely killer setup and execution.

40. Jack the Ripper vs Hannibal Lecter

Winner: Hannibal Lecter

Best line: "I don't mind that you're naughty, Jack. I hate that you're sloppy."

I can't imagine that this one was particularly easy to write for given the very little we know about Jack the Ripper. I was gonna say, "Oh this battle was made before we knew his true identity", but apparently it's still not really agreed upon who he really was and the mystery gets "solved" again and again every few years. Anyway, Lloyd is great as Hannibal, his faces and mannerisms are perfect, and Dan Bull provides an interesting interpretation of the type of person Jack may have been. I love that Jack spends his entire first verse purely hyping himself up and Hannibal calls him out on being a narcissist, it's something that kinda shocks you as a viewer cause it's something you probably don't even notice on the first viewing, and you're also not expecting the video itself to point it out. It really sells the "Hannibal is one step ahead" kind of vibe.

39. Vlad the Impaler vs Count Dracula

Winner: Vlad the Impaler

Best line: "Imagine forests of corpses dripping on a buffet. You call that a nightmare? I call that a Tuesday."

Vlad the Impaler is probably the single most cold, brutal character ERB has ever had, and Lloyd gets some truly bone-chilling line deliveries in as him. Peter's Dracula is great too, the whole thing of a killer with class being disgusted by a killer who's just trying to be vicious actually makes it quite similar to Jack the Ripper vs Hannibal now that I think about it.

38. Babe Ruth vs Lance Armstrong

Winner: Babe Ruth

Best line: "So c'mon, little buddy, don't look so pissed. With all that blood and attitude, you're like a menstrual cyclist."

Like Hawk vs Gretzky, this is another athlete vs athlete video, and you'd expect the odds to immediately be stacked against Armstrong by virtue of the fact that you have a known cheater going up against an athlete with integrity. But Armstrong actually manages to put up a damn good rebuttal, taking shots at Ruth's personal life instead. I still think Ruth won, but both rappers actually manage to knock it out of the park, pun entirely intended.

Also unrelated to the battle itself but I've always thought the face Lloyd makes in the thumbnail of this one makes him look like James Rolfe.

37. James Bond vs Austin Powers

Winner: James Bond (modern)

Best line: "After 24 films, I'm still reaching new heights. Your third movie died, guess you only live twice."

I've always kinda wondered why Peter was cast as Austin Powers in this, I think Lloyd looks a lot more like Mike Myers. I guess they didn't want to have a battle where Peter is completely excluded while Lloyd gets to play two characters. That being said, Peter does nail the Austin Powers impression, so it's all good. This battle's a really cool concept, a character rapping against their own parody version, and then an earlier version of the character comes in and disses on their modern version. The battle does basically cease to be about Austin Powers at that point, but I think it works because neither version of Bond considers him a serious opponent.

This battle is loaded with great lines too - in addition to the quote above, we also have "I'm licensed to kill, you couldn't get a learner's permit", "Spell my name, all the ladies wanna B on D, any sex appeal you might have is beyond me", "I only need one round, golden gun", and "I don't need a Q to break your balls". Brilliantly clever writing.

I will say that the background effects for modern Bond, while they definitely do look cool, are a bit too much to the point of being distracting. Maybe it was a deliberate choice to contrast with classic Bond though, as a way to convey that the modern Bond films are a lot more about flashy spectacle than the more grounded stories the early films had, I dunno.

36. Mozart vs Skrillex

Winner: Skrillex

Best line: "I attack, you decay, can't sustain my releases! Sidechain, Wolfgang! Bangarang you to pieces!"

This battle is everything that Bieber vs Beethoven should have been - a battle between a modern musician and a classical one that actually gives the modern one a fighting chance. Plus it actually changes the background music to match the style of whoever's rapping! This battle is great, no real notes here. Mozart's line about "in two more months the world will forget about your Skrill-excrement" has aged pretty well too given how Skrillex's star has definitely faded since this video's release.

This battle is also notable for being the only one where a real person that was portrayed in an ERB has actually performed it themselves! Skrillex, obviously, not Mozart. The real Skrillex actually came out as a surprise guest appearance in a live performance of the song and helped Lloyd finish it out. I admit, I didn't really know what Skrillex actually looked like, but seeing him side-by-side with Lloyd in costume, yeah, the team nailed his look.

35. Ragnar Lodbrok vs Richard the Lionheart

Winner: Ragnar Lodbrok

Best line: "Your son killed your ex, your ex killed your wife. I'm the Lion King, man, but that's a messed-up circle of life."

This is what I love about ERB, man. I had never even heard of either of these historical figures before this battle, but I watched it, loved the song, got curious what all the lyrics meant, did research on both men, and then went back and rewatched the video with the new knowledge to catch all the references. ERB is truly at its best when it's making learning fun.

Interestingly, the reason this battle was even made in the first place was because the mobile game that sponsored it reached out to Peter and Lloyd and asked if they would make a battle between two of the historical figures in their game in exchange for the sponsorship. Given that the battle was effectively made as an ad for a mobile game, it's shocking how good it turned out. You'd really never know that's how it came to be just looking at the end product.

34. Darth Vader vs Hitler 2

Winner: Darth Vader

Best line: "Roar like Chewbacca, the voice of Mufasa, I'm on the leader of your limp-dicked Luftwaffe!"

And here we go, the second of the Vader vs Hitler trilogy is easily the best one. I feel like it struck the perfect balance - it was bigger and more epic than the first while not feeling fatigued on the idea like the third. Season 2 kicked off with this and you could immediately tell the jump in production quality from season 1. This video had an intro and everything, continuing off from Hitler being frozen in carbonite from the first battle. It's great, what else can I say?

33. Cleopatra vs Marilyn Monroe

Winner: Marilyn Monroe

Best line: "You still got no children after your third marriage. You lost so many babies, we should call you Miss Carriage!"

This was the first battle where neither Peter nor Lloyd play one of the rappers, even though it is not the first female-on-female battle (but we don't talk about Gaga vs Palin). But both performers do a stellar job; I love how Marilyn's demeanor goes from the giggling flirtiness we know her for to becoming increasingly pissed off and hysterical as Cleopatra hurls more and more insults at her (Marilyn's "Translate this into hieroglyphs: Your sandy vagina has a seven-year itch" would have won best line were it not for the sheer brutality of the Miss Carriage line). And getting a professional dancer to portray Cleopatra was a great choice; she's still one of the most visually interesting rappers to have ever been on the series. And no, I don't just mean that in an ogling way.

Also, I think this is the only battle where the same person starts it and closes it out? Which does lead to Cleopatra feeling like she doesn't get as much screen time, but it's certainly not a dealbreaker.

32. Moses vs Santa Claus

Winner: Moses

Best line: "It takes nine reindeers to haul your fat ass. You took the Christ out of Christmas and just added more mass."

This battle was definitely meant to be a stand-in for Jesus vs Santa; that was the matchup we all really wanted to see. But someone somewhere must have gotten cold feet about dissing a figure that millions worship, so Jesus got swapped out for someone Jesus-adjacent. Hey, I'm a Christian, and I know I still would have found a Jesus rap battle hilarious.

But whatever, even though it's not exactly what we wanted, what we did get was still great. The fact that they actually managed to get motherfucking Snoop Dogg as a guest star because he happened to be using the same studio as ERB at the time still blows my mind; I don't think any guest star is ever gonna top that. And they certainly had some fun with having him on board - I love that they managed to make jokes referencing him while still being appropriate for Moses, like "smoking all that burning bush", or "so much drama in the IsraeL B.C.". This is a battle that just always puts a smile on my face.

31. Nikola Tesla vs Thomas Edison

Winner: Nikola Tesla

Best line: "I don't alternate my flow, I diss you directly!"

I love how this battle really leans into how we now perceive Tesla and Edison, with Tesla being a hero for the people and Edison as the greedy villain who kept him down. Good stuff. Don't really have a whole lot to say about this one, it's just a good battle with two very memorable personalities, and Peter's Tesla voice is very pleasant to listen to. And of course, the electric synth in the background track was a must.

30. JRR Tolkien vs George RR Martin

Winner: George RR Martin

Best line: "All your bad guys die and your good guys survive. We can tell what's gonna happen by page and age five!"

All right, so, I ain't the most well-versed in the fantasy genre, but I still really like this one. The underlying argument between the two men here is something I've seen time and time again on the internet - "happy endings are boring and predictable" versus "eschewing happy endings just for the sake of it isn't automatically good". It makes for good battle fodder. Also I just love Lloyd's performance here - it's so loud and boisterous, and his "No he didn't!" is A+.

Okay folks, click here for the third and final part as we rank the best of the best!

#epic rap battles of history #erb

9 notes · View notes

fairydares · 7 months

Text

Wish this was done better but Jellal vs. God Serena is actually such a funny & awesome match-up. They're very different personalities. It's like if the Phantom of the Opera squared off against Evil Cats.

Which only makes it more hilarious that the fight ended with Jellal being like, "Guilting me? THAT was your big trump card? Oh, dead boy 🤦‍♂️😔 do you even research anything at all? I'm basically like the hulk of guilt. I'm always guilty. Die again now, dead boy - no, quietly. You've embarrassed yourself enough. Shoo."

#fairy tail #jellal fernandez #jerza #100yq spoilers #100yq #god serena #hundred years quest #100 years quest

19 notes · View notes

actualbird · 2 years

Text

hypothetical fights i want to see between the tot cast cuz it’d be fun to see how they’d fair in a fight to the death (just kidding. i mean a friendly fight as an appreciation of combat skills)

inspired by a convo i had with @samsspambox . i’d like to make it clear that when i say 'fight' here i mean a physical fight, a scuffle, some good ol fashioned "nothing personal just wanna see who would win" FISTICUFFS!!!!

with no weapons allowed, heres who i'd pay good money to see go at each other with only their unarmed martial expertise

The Battling Butler VS Agent Raven (aka ogier vs luke)

ogier is so badass. i love a fighty dude and hes dressed to the nines and he hilariously drags vyn every once in a while, whats not to love?

but yeah, clear in my memory is his combat prowess in vyn’s personal story 4. i dont know anything about ogier past that, but given that he was sent as a guard from svart by vyn’s father, i can only assume his training is of the royal guard quality type of level. thats intense!

though we also know luke is ALSO INSANELY INTENSE....

i think a spar between them would be really fucking close, irt who bests who. luke is NSB’s top agent, but i assume ogier is incredibly well trained also, youve gotta be Damn Good to be a guard of anyone remotely of royal importance

so like, what luke has got going in his favor is his NSB training obviously but also

luke has youth on his side

HSKJHFDKVJHGVSD HEAR ME OUT! aside from his illness, hes at the top of his game in terms of prime age range for physical peak, did u kno that the average age for olympic competitors is early 20s? well now u know. body can be in good shape at this point, thats a plus for him and a not-plus for ogier. idk how old ogier is (and i cant find out cuz he doesnt even have a Big Data Lab entry omfg the man the mystery the LEGEND) but he looks Older, a little past his prime. even skill cant negate the woes of aging.

buuuuuut ogier has a trump card: his training was probably completely different to anything luke is used to.

now we dont know very much about luke’s days in the NSB, but i get the impression that his work was Generally Within The Country Of Stellis OR Generally Handling People Who Are Stellans.

ogier is not a stellan. hes svartan. or svartish. or however the hell we decide to conjugate the nationality of svart. additionally, i can see it being a huge advantage for svartan guards to be keeping their training/fighting style under wraps. if opponents dont know how you’ll fight, u can catch em unaware

ogier’s fight style and tactics could be completely novel to luke, which would knock luke down a peg (both figuratively and metaphorically).

still, luke is adaptable and hes got a quick and intuitive mind. while he cant fight exactly like ogier, he’d be able to recover and figure out his own way of countering ogier’s attacks

with all that said, my personal verdict of who would win is.....//drumroll!!

nobody!

it’s a tie!

and luke enthusiastically brings ogier out for drinks later, he hasnt been tied in a match for years and hes kinda giddy about it!

(luke: you have to teach me some of your moves sometime, yeah?

ogier: of course. and perhaps you could encourage vyn to join this class as well? haha.

luke: haha.

ogier: haha.

luke: hahaha.....no. im pretty sure vyn is capable of destroying me psychologically, im not making him do anything he doesnt wanna do, thanks.

ogier: fair enough)

The Battling Butler VS The Perplexingly Over-Capable Assistant (aka ogier vs vincent)

remember when luke in main story 7.2 said this in the case files?

yeah. YEAH IVE GOT MY EYE ON YOU, VINCENT KIM!!!

vincent’s investigative prowess aside, i just think it makes sense for vincent to have some kind of combat knowledge for the following reasons:

1) currently, marius has nearly gotten stabbed a total of three (3) times. while marius has his own self defense knowledge, i wouldnt put it past vincent to get some training in as well juuuuusssstt in case knife-magnet von hagen gets into hot water again.

2) it’s unexpected. vincent does not look the type to punch anybody in the face, and thus i want him to be capable of a mean right hook

3) if nobody expects u to throw a punch, that punch can land way easier.

that being said, i dont think he’ll beat ogier at all. my view is that vincent took some classes and that his self defense training is a little bit above marius’ skill level, but it’s nothing that can go against a trained royal bodyguard

still, ogier can be caught unaware. vincent maybe gets like a few hits in before ogier takes him down

so my verdict is: ogier would win but would be very impressed by vincent for managing to fool him

(vincent: oh, i wasnt...aiming to fool you?

ogier: hm. i think that adds points for you, actually)

Baldr Civil War (aka howard syter vs william lewis)

ive got no rationale for this

i just think theyre hilariously pathetic and i wanna see them fight in a hilariously pathetic way, like the one scene in Bridget Jones’ Diary

absolute cringefail combat, this is what i WANT

maybe whoever loses has to be the one to face mc in court next, and neither of them wanna be the poor shmuck to have to get annihilated by her again

my verdict: ingrid has to break the fight up (which is happening in the baldr legal office lobby) and everybody involved loses. everybody loses their dignity

#tears of themis #tears of themis headcanons #luke pearce #idk if the others have common tags so i'll just tag luke some more LMAO #tot luke

145 notes · View notes

gusty-wind · 4 months

Text

TO SEE IS TO BELIEVE WHO IS REALLY " THE PRESIDENT OF THE PEOPLE ".

#the great awakening #war is real #ncswic

3 notes · View notes

arcticdementor · 5 months

Text

For The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 issue, 24 contributors consider what Donald Trump could do if he were to return to the White House.

Just the summary page is a hilarious parade of catastrophizing. First, the editor's note:

• A WARNING, By Jeffrey Goldberg

America survived the first Trump term, though not without sustaining serious damage. A second term, if there is one, will be much worse.

Then the rest:

• THE DANGER AHEAD, By David Frum

If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he’d bring a better understanding of the system’s vulnerabilities, more willing enablers, and a more focused agenda of retaliation against his adversaries.

• TRUMP WILL ABANDON NATO, By Anne Applebaum

If reelected, he would end our commitment to the European alliance, reshaping the international order and hobbling American influence in the world.

• LOYALISTS, LAPDOGS, AND CRONIES, By McKay Coppins

In a second Trump term, there would be no adults in the room.

• THE SPECTER OF FAMILY SEPARATION, By Caitlin Dickerson

Donald Trump and his allies have promised to restore their draconian zero-tolerance immigration policy.

• HOW TRUMP GETS AWAY WITH IT, By Barton Gellman

If reelected, he could use the powers of the presidency to evade justice and punish his enemies.

• FOUR MORE YEARS OF UNCHECKED MISOGYNY, By Sophie Gilbert

In a second Trump term, women would once again be targets.

• THE CLIMATE CAN’T AFFORD ANOTHER TRUMP PRESIDENCY, By Zoë Schlanger

His approach to the environment: ignore it.

• IS JOURNALISM READY?, By George Packer

[Which rule is it that says that if a headline is a question, the answer is probably "no"?]

The press has repeatedly fallen into Donald Trump’s traps. A second term could render it irrelevant.

• TRUMP’S POLARIZATION OF SCIENCE IS BAD FOR EVERYONE, By Sarah Zhang

A reelected Donald Trump would continue to attack studies that stand in the way of his agenda—and to make support for scientific inquiry a tribal belief.

• CORRUPTION UNBOUND, By Franklin Foer

Donald Trump and his cronies left his first administration with a playbook for self-enrichment in a second term.

• WHY XI WANTS TRUMP TO WIN, By Michael Schuman

A second Trump term would allow China to cement its grip on the developing world.

• A MAGA JUDICIARY, By Adam Serwer

In a second term, Donald Trump would appoint more judges who don’t care about the law.

• THE PROUD BOYS LOVE A WINNER, By Juliette Kayyem

A second Trump term would validate the violent ideologies of far-right extremists—and allow them to escape legal jeopardy.

• A PLAN TO OUTLAW ABORTION EVERYWHERE, By Elaine Godfrey

Activists hope a Trump Justice Department would criminalize the procedure, with or without a federal ban.

• THE TRUTH WON’T MATTER, By Megan Garber

If reelected, Donald Trump will once again churn out absurdity and outrage with factory efficiency.

• DONALD TRUMP VS. AMERICAN HISTORY, By Clint Smith

He has promised to impose his harmful, erroneous claims on school curricula in a second term.

• A WAR ON BLUE AMERICA, By Ronald Brownstein

In a second term, Trump would punish the cities and states that don’t support him.

• TRUMP ISN’T BLUFFING, By David A. Graham

We’ve become inured to his rhetoric, but his message has grown darker.

• CIVIL RIGHTS UNDONE, By Vann R. Newkirk II

How Trump could unwind generations of progress

• TRUMP’S PLAN TO POLICE GENDER, By Spencer Kornhaber

His campaign is promising a more repressive and dangerous America.

• A MILITARY LOYAL TO TRUMP, By Tom Nichols

In 2020, the armed forces were a bulwark against Donald Trump’s antidemocratic designs. Changing that would be a high priority in a second term.

• THE LEFT CAN’T AFFORD TO GO MAD, By Helen Lewis

[This one looks like the closest to an even-handed approach, and stands out in comparison to the rest]

A second Trump term would require an opposition that focuses on his abuses of power—and seeks converts rather than hunting heretics.

• WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE AMERICAN PSYCHE IF TRUMP IS REELECTED?, By Jennifer Senior

Our bodies are not designed to handle chronic stress.

• TRUMP VOTERS ARE AMERICA TOO, By Mark Leibovich

(Note: even this one is totally negative)

If he wins a second term, perhaps we’ll finally dispense with the myth that “this is not who we are.”

#the atlantic #trump derangement syndrome #lol #lmao even #parade of horribles #stop making republicans sound based

4 notes · View notes

misfitwashere · 5 months

Text

Courting Ridicule - When constitutionalism becomes comedy

Dr. Timothy Snyder January 8, 2024

I am concerned that the Supreme Court, in ruling on Trump's eligibility for office, will make itself ridiculous.

We stand on the threshold of comedy already.

A Supreme Court justice takes big gifts from people who have an interest in Court rulings. Morally shocking, but also ludicrous.

The Court responds by ignoring a fundamental principle of justice: that one cannot judge oneself. This is tragic, but also funny.

The wife of that justice supported the overthrow of Constitutional rule during an attempted coup. It’s hard to miss the humorous side of that.

She urged the president (through baffling texts to his chief of staff) to (among many other things) "release the Kraken." This is horrible in its totality, but hilarious in the detail.

She attended and helped organize the rally that became the assault on the Capitol on January 6th, 2020. And she helps run a for-profit consulting firmthat takes money from people who have cases before the Supreme Court.

In a Court wishing to maintain a veneer of seriousness, Clarence Thomas would recuse himself from cases where Ginni Thomas is making money and from cases concerning Trump's insurrection.

Thomas did recuse himself from a single case that touched on January 6th, when doing so did not matter. That’s distressing; but it’s also amusing to consider that he thought he was fooling anyone.

What is left for Supreme Court justices at this point is an overt commitment to legal theory. Most justices, Thomas included, are "originalists," and indicate that they are bound, in their rulings, by doctrines known as intentionalism or textualism.

In intentionalism, the Constitution is held to mean what its framers intended it to mean. In textualism, the Constitutionalism is held to mean what its plain language indicates. These views are what most justices want us to take seriously. It would help if the justices who propound these views would act consistently with them.

Court rulings favor big business and make it harder for people to vote. We are assured that this a side effect of intentionalist and textualist readings of the Constitution. It is mere coincidence, we are told, that these rulings align with the interests of the political forces who organized the justices' education, ascent, and appointment. Perhaps this is true. Perhaps it is coincidence. Perhaps textualism and intentionalism mean something.

Or perhaps it is all a sham. We are about to find out.

The Supreme Court is about to consider Anderson vs. Griswold, the Colorado Supreme Court ruling that Trump may not appear on a primary ballot.

This is a case made for a textualist or an intentionalist.

For a textualist, intentionalist, or originalist of any sort, Anderson vs. Griswoldis utterly simple. The text of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution forbids insurrectionists such as Trump from holding office. The intentions of those who discussed and formulated Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment are similarly clear.

This is where the comic potential emerges. This Court is unlikely ever to hear again a case of such simplicity, in which the text and context of the Constitution so obviously demand an unambiguous verdict: to confirm the Colorado ruling.

If the Court does otherwise, it will look silly.

But three of our textualists and the intentionalists were appointed by Trump, and silliness seems to be the general expectation. The theory of Trump's lawyers, as one of them has actually said out loud, is that Supreme Court justices appointed by Trump belong to Trump.

The tittering has begun. Like an audience that sees the banana peel on the stage, commentators goad the justices towards the pratfall. It is widely proclaimed that the Court's decision rule should not be the Constitution, but instead the psychological state of Trump supporters.

“Maybe folks’ll be upset” would indeed be a funny way to decide a case.

Such a pitchfork ruling, a judgement based not on law but on guesses about the moods of strangers, would be as far from intentionalism and textualism as the justices could get. It is just the sort of thing that intentionalists and textualists say that they never do. Their heroic pose is that they must do just what the Constitution says, regardless of the consequences.

After a pitchfork ruling, the entire originalist pretence — that justices stand bravely apart from the moment and evaluate the text or context of the Constitution as they must — would dissolve.

The consequences of courting ridicule are, of course, very serious. Our form of government depends on a balance between the executive, the legislative, and the judicial branches. When such a government is toppled, it is usually by an executive who is able to dominate the other two branches. One way that an executive does so is by mocking the other two branches, portraying them as unnecessary and led by buffoons.

And so actual buffoonery helps no one. If Trump is left on the ballot in defiance of the Constitution by people who claim to be its protectors, he will not respect it or them. But the danger of constitutional comedy is general. It leaves the rule of law more vulnerable, and makes regime change more likely.

PS You might be wondering why you have not heard more about Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment. This is because it is not generally taught in law schools. But what is taught or not taught in law schools, what is in fashion or not in fashion in a given moment, should be absolutely irrelevant to the textualists and the intentionalists. The wording of the Constitution itself is as clear as day.

#timothy snyder

2 notes · View notes