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ukrainenews · 11 months

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(This situation is very much a developing thing and there's a lot of conflicting and wrong information out there right now. I know I've been absent lately, but I'm keeping an eye on things.)

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday his Wagner fighters had crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine and were prepared to go "all the way" against Moscow's military, hours after the Kremlin accused him of armed mutiny.

As a long-running standoff between Prigozhin and the military top brass appeared to come to a head, Russia's FSB security service opened a criminal case against him, TASS news agency said. It called on the Wagner private military company forces to ignore his orders and arrest him.

Wagner fighters had entered the southern Russian city of Rostov, Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Telegram. He said he and his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way.

Prigozhin earlier said, without providing evidence, that Russia's military leadership had killed a huge number of his troops in an air strike and vowed to punish them.

He said his actions were not a military coup. But in a frenzied series of audio messages, in which the sound of his voice sometimes varied and could not be independently verified, he appeared to suggest that his 25,000-strong militia was en route to oust the leadership of the defence ministry in Moscow.

Security was stepped up on Friday night at government buildings, transport facilities and other key locations in Moscow, TASS reported, citing a source at a security service.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was getting around-the-clock updates, TASS said, while the White House said it was monitoring the situation and would consult with allies.

Kyiv, meanwhile, said the major thrust in its counteroffensive against Moscow's invasion had yet to be launched. "The main blow is still to come," Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar told Ukrainian television.

A top Ukrainian general reported "tangible successes" in advances in the south - one of two main theatres of operations, along with eastern Ukraine.

'OBEY PRESIDENT,' GENERAL SAYS

The deputy commander of Russia's Ukraine campaign, General Sergei Surovikin, told Wagner fighters to obey Putin, accept Moscow's commanders and return to their bases. He said political deterioration would play into the hands of Russia's enemies.

"I urge you to stop," Surovikin said in a video posted on Telegram, his right hand resting on a rifle.

The standoff, many of the details of which remained unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he sent thousands of troops into Ukraine in February last year.

Prigozhin, a one-time Putin ally, in recent months has carried out an increasingly bitter feud with Moscow. Earlier on Friday, he appeared to cross a new line, saying the Kremlin's rationale for invading Ukraine, which it calls a "special military operation," was based on lies by the army's top brass.

Wagner led Russia's capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month, Russia's biggest victory in 10 months, and Prigozhin has used its battlefield success to criticise the leadership of the defense ministry with seeming impunity - until now.

For months, he has openly accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of incompetence.

Army Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alekseyev issued a video appeal in which he asked Prigozhin to reconsider his actions. "Only the president has the right to appoint the top leadership of the armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his authority," he said.

UKRAINE SAYS MAJOR THRUST AHEAD

On the ground in Ukraine, at least three people were killed in Russian attacks on Friday, including two who died after a trolleybus company came under fire in the city of Kherson, regional officials said.

Addressing the pace of the Ukrainian advances, several senior officials on Friday sent the clearest signal so far that the main part of the counteroffensive has not yet begun.

"I want to say that our main force has not been engaged in fighting yet, and we are now searching, probing for weak places in the enemy defences. Everything is still ahead," the Guardian quoted Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, as saying in an interview with the British newspaper.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's "Tavria," or southern front, wrote on Telegram: "There have been tangible successes of the Defence Forces and in advances in the Tavria sector."

Tarnavskyi said Russian forces had lost hundreds of men and 51 military vehicles in the past 24 hours, including three tanks and 14 armoured personnel carriers.

Although the advances Ukraine has reported this month are its first substantial gains on the battlefield for seven months, Ukrainian forces have yet to push to the main defensive lines that Russia has had months to prepare.

#russia #wagner group #ukraine

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sakebytheriver · 8 months

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Was thinking about how I wanted someone who wasn't a Russia defender who believes we should let the entire country of Ukraine become fodder to Putin's dictatorial whims to talk about just how horrific it was that some random in Canada's government just decided to without consulting anyone else or warning anyone in advance to bring a literal Nazi out to the parliament and make all of his colleagues and the Jewish president of Ukraine look like a bunch of idiots who support the fucking Nazis and then I realized you know what I'm not a Russia defender who thinks Ukraine should be devoured by Putin so here I am

That moment was really bad. Hope we can all agree on that

It absolutely should not have happened

As many have already stated most Ukrainians at the time fought for the Red Army against the Nazis and this random speaker in Canada's parliament probably had to work real hard to find this one Nazi and then parade him in front of cameras and ultimately just add more fodder to the literal Russian propaganda that Putin invaded the country to save it from Nazism as if Russia itself (and basically every other country on this earth, hello America, hello Canada, hello Argentina, hello the fucking world) isn't brimming with Nazis

This move was absolutely disgraceful and beyond shameful, honestly the speaker that did it should probably be asked to resign and step down, if he wasn't able to do the basic research needed to know that the person he was parading in front of his entire government and the entire world was a literal Nazi who fought with the SS and to do this move with no prior warning to literally anyone else shows a level of incompetency once only delivered by American politicians, this should be something speaker Anthony Rota never escapes from, this should be brought up at every reelection campaign event and every singular debate he has from now on

But if you are looking at this insanely disgusting moment where an idiot who doesn't deserve his job made an entire room full of people including possibly the most prominent Jewish man at the moment clap and celebrate a Nazi and thinking this justifies Putin's invasion of an independent and democratic nation for no other reason than he's getting older and he wants to make his legacy that he was the dictator who reconquered all the states that broke apart foromt he former Soviet Union, then you honestly might be an even bigger idiot than Anthony Rota

Like I'm sorry, but you have fully bought into the propaganda if you think that Putin is gonna deNazify Ukraine, especially when we have more than an abundant amount of proof that Putin's government has propped up tons of far-right and Nazi groups in other countries to encourage instability

Anthony Rota brought out a disgusting monster of a human being who volunteered to fight for the Nazis in WWII in a completely not thought out PR ploy that has only aided in providing more propaganda for the Russian military/government to utilize against Ukraine, this does not then equal that we stop supporting Ukraine and let Russia completely level their country

Thank you for reading and goodnight

#ignore me #so far ive only been seeing the tankies talk about this and i realized you know what im a leftist who isnt a tankie

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warsofasoiaf · 7 months

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Russia will not fall apart. The United States and the European Union will collapse like the Roman Empire, which is mired in debauchery. When the peoples of any country turn into a consumer society without feelings of shame and conscience, they self-destruct.

Where to even begin with this? Should I start with that the Russian state collapsed three times in the 20th century, the Russian Tsardom, the short-lived Russian Provisional Republic, and the Soviet Union? Should I start with the fact that the European Union is not a country and cannot experience national collapse? Should I start with the rates of violence and child exploitation in Russia that tell me that Russia has no business telling other countries that they don't have shame or conscience?

The West *is* decadent though. Even our rural folk have indoor toilets, which isn't something you can say about Russia. It's been a hoot watching the Russian Federation pretend it's a world power while showing off its incompetent army and send its people to slaughter because no one fears it anymore.

-SLAL

#russia

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centrally-unplanned · 2 years

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A fun Russian strategy thought - I have described Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea as a masterstroke before, and I fully stand by that with an emphasis on the past tense. From the vantage point of 2014, maybe you think it wasn’t worth the sanctions, etc, I even agree, but you can’t deny it worked; Russia was able to make the first large territorial gains through conquest in the modern era at minimal direct cost and in a way that gave them just enough plausible deniability to escape the worst of the international response. Ukraine couldn’t justify war, China could easily go “well hey the Crimean people want it” etc. Given Putin’s values it was a win.

In 2014. What the response to the annexation of Crimea was, internationally, was to shovel money into Ukraine, and the response of Ukraine was to get its act together militarily, finally overcome its domestic political divisions in some ways, and modernize its army. This is *completely fine* from Russia’s standpoint if you are content with your gains. You got your Black Sea port back, Ukraine being strong isn’t actually a threat to you, them joining NATO isn't actually a threat to you and all your claims otherwise are obvious propaganda bullshit, etc. Its a totally valid trade, weak Ukraine wasn’t helping you anyway unless you take things, so you took things while you could.

But if your plan is to attempt to conquer the entire country in an Operation Barbarossa LARP 8 years later, now the annexation of Crimea is the worst move you could possibly make. Nothing in Crimea was mission critical for Ukraine’s military capabilities, the 8 year civil war in the Donbass is just an XP grinder for the Ukrainian officer corp, and you telegraphed your intentions well in advance. And if you know, as you should unless you are completely incompetent, that your actually existing stock of fires & tech is nowhere near western parity, that western aid is a massive force leveler. If this was your plan, the correct preparatory move for that plan was to do absolutely nothing to evoke Ukrainian & international ire until you are ready to go all in. As such, Crimea has gone from one of the most strategically insightful maneuvers to an S-tier unforced error.

#Russia-Ukraine war

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beardedmrbean · 7 months

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The Russian defence ministry has been recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine, apparently taking over from the Wagner mercenary group which was the first to adopt the practice last year.

Such army units are commonly known as Storm-Z, the letter Z being one of the symbols of Vladimir Putin's so-called "special military operation" against Ukraine. It is also the first letter of the Russian word "zek", or "inmate".

The name Storm-Z is unofficial and can be applied to a range of Russian army units active in different parts of Ukraine.

Similarly to Wagner's prisoner units, Storm-Z detachments are reportedly often treated as an expendable force thrown into battle - with little consideration for the lives of their servicemen.

There are also indications that members of other army units can be sent to Storm-Z detachments as punishment for violations such as insubordination or drunkenness.

Wagner's role

Last year, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin - known as "Putin's chef" - was allowed to recruit in prisons after tens of thousands of Russian troops were killed in Ukraine.

He personally visited numerous jails to promise convicted criminals that they would be able to go home free, and with their convictions removed, after six months of fighting for Wagner in Ukraine - if they survived.

The group, which employed experienced mercenaries as well as convicts, proved itself as a capable fighting force in locations such as the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut.

But then Prigozhin very publicly escalated his criticism of Russia's top brass, accusing them of incompetence and of deliberately starving Wagner of ammunition. Two months after staging a short-lived mutiny, Prigozhin died in a plane crash in August 2023 together with Wagner's other top commanders.

The group has now all but disappeared from the battlefield in Ukraine.

Military takes over

Reports from Russia suggest that the defence ministry has taken over from Wagner as a recruiter of inmates for the war against Ukraine.

"It is the same scheme as with the [Wagner] private military company," said RTVI, a Russian news website. "Prisoners sign contracts with the defence ministry, and after completing them they can go home or continue serving."

One member of Storm-Z, a former prisoner interviewed by US-funded website Sever Realii, said defence ministry recruiters promised inmates lavish payments: a salary of 205,000 roubles (about $2,000 or £1,700) a month, a payment of 3m roubles ($31,000 or £26,000) per injury and 5m roubles ($52,000 or £43,000) to be paid to the recruit's relatives if he gets killed.

"It all sounded hunky-dory!" he said. But soon after being deployed to Ukraine the former prisoners realised they were being sent into a "total meat-grinder" without proper armaments or without even being told of the real situation on the front line, he said.

The man - whose real name Sever Realii did not give - lost a leg in battle, but he survived, unlike some of his fellow fighters from Storm-Z.

Even though the Russian military has not confirmed or denied recruiting convicts, there are numerous indications of them being sent to units known as Storm-Z.

For example, Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russia-installed governor of the occupied city of Sevastopol in Crimea, on 17 October confirmed that one of the two Storm-Z members recently killed in fighting was an ex-prisoner who had "decided to atone for his guilt and signed a contract with the defence ministry in spring 2023".

Also in October, popular Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets interviewed another member of Storm-Z, a convicted murderer who uses the call sign Bandit. He had served six years of his 19-year prison sentence before joining the Russian military.

"It doesn't matter if you're a contract soldier, if you've been mobilised or if you are even a convict. No, we're like family," Bandit told the paper. "I just hope the defence ministry does what it promised and secures a pardon for me."

'They're just meat'

The defence ministry in Moscow first referred to "storm units" on 25 January this year, publishing a video of them training, but without going into the detail of who their members were. It is possible that the unit mentioned by the defence ministry is different from Storm-Z units which comprise convicts.

It said that the "storm units' job is to break through the most complicated layered parts of Ukrainian defences".

In practice, this appears to mean that they are often readily deployed without much consideration for their chances of survival.

"Storm fighters, they're just meat," one regular soldier who has fought alongside members of Storm-Z, told Reuters. In its investigation, the news agency also said that, in an echo of Stalin's penal military units, servicemen from other army detachments can get sent to Storm-Z as punishment for disobeying orders or drinking alcohol.

Independent Russian website Agentstvo quoted a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine's Kherson region (whose identity the website says it has confirmed) as saying that regular servicemen were sent to Storm-Z as a form of punishment. The man shared with Agentstvo a video of three masked men who he said were members of his brigade, one of whom says:

"This means they're running out of people, and our commanders plug these holes by sending people to Storm-Z. We think this is unlawful and illegitimate. This has to stop."

One Russian Telegram account believed to be run by a military instructor involved in training Storm-Z units claimed that some of their members had been driven to desperation and attempted desertion after being mistreated by their commanders.

"People can simply go berserk because they're being treated like dispensable meat which deserves no sympathy. And this attitude is in reality not uncommon," the account calling itself the Grey Zone Philologist said.

But then, it claimed, Storm-Z servicemen are not the only members of the Russian army subjected to mistreatment by "unhinged man-eating commanders".

The UK ministry of defence says it is possible that Storm-Z units were originally envisioned as "relatively elite organisations".

In an intelligence update published on 24 October, it says they have now effectively become "penal battalions, manned with convicts and regular troops on disciplinary charges".

#nunyas news #long running russian tradition

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mariacallous · 3 months

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Northern Russia must have felt bitterly cold to U.S. soldiers, even though nearly all were from Michigan. On Sept. 4, 1918, 4,800 U.S. troops landed in Arkhangelsk, Russia, only 140 miles from the Arctic Circle. Three weeks later, they were plunged into battle against the Red Army among towering pine forests and subarctic swamps, alongside the British and French. Ultimately, 244 U.S. soldiers died from the fighting over two years. Diaries of U.S. troops paint a harrowing picture of first contact:

We run into a nest of machine-guns, we retire. [Bolsheviks] still shelling heavily. Perry and Adamson of my squad wounded, bullet clips my shoulder on both sides. … Am terribly tired, hungry and all in, so are the rest of the boys. Casualties in this attack 4 killed and 10 wounded.

These unlucky souls represented just one prong of the sprawling and ill-fated Allied intervention in the Russian civil war. From 1918 to 1920, the United States, Britain, France, and Japan sent thousands of troops from the Baltics to northern Russia to Siberia to Crimea—and millions of dollars in aid and military supplies to the anti-communist White Russians—in an abortive attempt to strangle Bolshevism in its crib. It’s one of the most complicated and oft-forgot foreign-policy failures of the 20th century, captivatingly retold in technicolor detail by Anna Reid in her new book, A Nasty Little War: The Western Intervention Into the Russian Civil War.

The specifics of the conflict, which Reid brilliantly weaves alongside personal diaries from the participants, often feel otherworldly. Japanese troops occupied Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. The mercurial French—at first the most hawkishly pro-intervention out of all the Allies—led the occupation of southern Ukraine, tussling with the Reds over cities now familiar to readers: Mykolaiv, Kherson, Sevastopol, Odessa. The British—who invested the most in the intervention, including 60,000 troops—were crawling all over Russia’s fringes: defending Baku from the oncoming Turks, conducting naval sabotage against the Bolsheviks in the Baltics, and ultimately evacuating the Whites from Black Sea ports as they crumbled in the face of a Red Army onslaught.

The disturbing question hanging over Reid’s excellent book is whether the West is doomed to repeat history. The intervention failed, and if you squint hard enough, today’s intervention in Ukraine may appear similarly futile in the face of a vast and determined Russia with a seemingly endless well of materiel, manpower, and political will. It’s what the far-right flank of Republicans in Congress, Viktor Orban in Hungary, and former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead you to believe. A sense of hopelessness articulated by Edmund Ironside, the British commander of Allied forces in northern Russia during the intervention: “Russia is so enormous that it gives one a feeling of smothering.”

But despite the strong historical echoes, the differences between the two interventions are more instructive than their similarities. A close study poses perhaps an even bigger question: What conditions make for a successful foreign intervention? Yes, the Allies bungled things, but in fairness, they mostly failed because of what was out of their control, rather than what was in it. The most limiting factor was their feckless (and noxious) White Russian allies, a disparate group of anti-Bolshevik socialists and incompetent former Tsarist officers who were Great Russian autocrats at heart. They had the buy-in of neither the Russian population nor, critically, Tsarist Russia’s tapestry of ethnic minorities—from Ukrainians to Balts—whom they sought to restore under Russia’s heel.

The circumstances today are much more favorable. The United States and Europe have a unified and determined partner in Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine, in a struggle with blinding moral clarity. Russia’s economy may be on wartime footing, but collectively the West has significantly more resources at hand. And the task—defending a motivated Ukraine against a hostile invasion—is much less ambitious than trying to topple the government of the largest country in the world. A sober comparison of the two interventions should, in fact, fortify Western resolve that it can see Ukraine through—as long as its own political will, waning now as it did in Western capitals then, doesn’t get in the way.

The critical ingredients of any foreign intervention are clear and achievable objectives, reliable allies on the ground, an assailable adversary, material means, and the political will to finish the job. On nearly every measure, the Allied intervention in Russia was fatally lacking.

Perhaps most striking about Reid’s narrative is that it’s often unclear what exactly the Allied troops were meant to do in Russia. Yes, all Western governments loathed Bolshevism and feared its expansionist and infectious potential. But beyond that, there was little in the way of shared strategy or purpose. In fact, Western troops were initially sent to guard railways and Allied military stores in northern and eastern Russia that they feared would reach German hands. But this was slightly complicated after Germany surrendered in November 1918. As George F. Kennan put it in his masterful volume The Decision to Intervene, the “American forces had scarcely arrived in Russia when history invalidated at a single stroke almost every reason Washington had conceived for their being there.”

Zealous British officers on the ground—egged on by hawkish ministers at home such as War Secretary Winston Churchill, who nearly depleted his own political capital advocating for the quixotic Russian adventure—soon took the initiative to actively intervene and fight the Reds. In other arenas, including southern Ukraine, the mission was clearer in support of the local White forces—though France quickly lost heart and sailed home in April 1919 after it suffered a series of setbacks and mutinies.

Encapsulating this ambiguity were instructions for the U.S. military intervention written personally in a July 1918 memo by President Woodrow Wilson, who was characteristically tortured by the decision and “sweating blood over what is right and feasible to do in Russia.” He opened the memo by warning that military intervention would “add to the present sad confusion in Russia rather than cure it”—yet then committed U.S. troops to aid the Czech Legion operating in Siberia and to northern Russia to “make it safe for Russian bodies to come together in organized bodies in the north.” Hardly clarifying stuff.

U.S. officers took these instructions quizzically. Gen. William Graves, in charge of the 8,000 doughboys in Siberia, was decidedly skeptical about the United States playing a role in the conflict and interpreted Wilson’s instructions as permitting him only to guard railways, not fight the Reds. He later wrote in his memoirs that he had no idea what Washington was trying to achieve. This was all to the chagrin of his more pro-interventionist British colleagues in Siberia, who instead proactively aided the Whites’ monstrously incompetent “supreme ruler,” Adm. Alexander Kolchak, a former head of the Russian Black Sea Fleet who incongruously found himself fighting deep in landlocked Siberia. (He was also, incidentally, a dead ringer for current Russian President Vladimir Putin.)

Which brings us to the White Russians. Perhaps the sine qua non of any foreign intervention, especially one as ambitious as the Western intervention in both Ukraine and in the Russian civil war, are allies on the ground. It’s the difference between the chaos that followed Western intervention in Libya and the successful intervention in the Balkans. On this score, the Whites failed miserably.

It’s hard to know where to begin. Beyond Kolchak, there was the overmatched Gen. Anton Denikin leading White forces in southern Russia, who dissembled to Allied governments about the horrific pogroms against the Jewish population of Ukraine perpetrated by Whites under his watch. And beyond operating across an impossibly large and disconnected front covering the entire periphery of Russia—a country of 11 time zones—the different White factions acted essentially as warlords, with little loyalty or coordination among them.

Just as fatal to the Whites was a conspicuous vacancy: any coherent or compelling ideology. Antony Beevor, in his fabulous new history of the Russian civil war, pins the White loss on both their lack of political program and fractious nature: “In Russia, an utterly incompatible alliance of Socialist Revolutionaries and reactionary monarchists stood little chance against a single-minded Communist dictatorship.”

Contrast all this with the Reds. They controlled the industrial heartland of Moscow and St. Petersburg, operating from the inward out with stronger interior lines of communication. It allowed Commissar Leon Trotsky—who, Reid notes, “blossom[ed] into a war leader of near-genius: shrewd, decisive and boundlessly energetic”—to hop on his armored train to shore up flagging fronts as the Whites advanced from the east and south. The Bolsheviks—though enacting ruinous economic policies and initiating the first waves of terror at home—were motivated and possessed a clear ideology that held, at least at that juncture, some appeal to the local population.

And, fundamentally, their will was much stronger than the Whites’ or the West’s. After the devastation of World War I, Allied governments feared the spread of Bolshevism but couldn’t bring their exhausted publics along with them. Here, the historical echoes are most troubling. Public support understandably flagged, and budgetary pressures mounted. As Britain’s Daily Express put it in 1919, in echoes of today’s Republican rhetoric in the United States: “Great Britain is already the policeman of half the world. It will not and cannot be the policeman of all Europe. … The frozen plains of Eastern Europe are not worth the bones of a single British grenadier.” Rolling White setbacks in Siberia and southern Russia were the nail in the coffin. Then, as now in Ukraine, foreign political support for intervention depended most on the sense of momentum on the battlefield.

The job of foreign-policy makers is to distinguish between what is in versus out of their control. To the degree that they intuit favorable conditions—allies, geography, the enemy’s vulnerability—then the task is to focus on and optimize the things they can manage: strategy and objectives, mobilizing political will, providing the materiel to support the effort, and coordinating with allies.

Despite the current pall of pessimism pervading Western capitals, today’s war in Ukraine presents some of the more propitious circumstances a policymaker could hope for—unlike those faced by the Allies during the Russian civil war. Ukraine is a worthy and competent ally, fighting to defend its territory with a highly motivated population behind it. The Ukrainian cause is a righteous one, with a Manichean quality to it easily explained to Western publics. While Putin’s personal will to win is strong, it’s clear by his actions and hesitancy to fully mobilize Russian society that he senses a ceiling on what he can ask from his population. Though Russia’s manpower and materiel are larger than Ukraine’s, the amount needed to keep Ukraine armed and in the fight is completely manageable. A $60 billion aid supplement from the United States—currently held up by far-right Republicans in the House of Representatives—is a pittance compared with the returns: holding the line on international norms; standing up for the Ukrainians and, in doing so, Western values; bogging down Russia in a strategic sinkhole and reducing its capacity to threaten the rest of NATO’s eastern flank; and fortifying the trans-Atlantic alliance. Today, Western capitals are much more united than they were in 1918, and defense coordination among them is strong. Though they can sharpen the shared sense of an endgame in Ukraine, everybody knows that the conflict will end in some sort of negotiated settlement—the questions will be on whose terms.

If the United States and its allies can avoid the pitfalls of the Western intervention in the Russian civil war—developing a clear long-term strategy, continuing to coordinate closely, and reinforcing domestic support by making the case to their own populations—then they have a real shot of prevailing over Putin. Given the auspicious conditions, the main, perhaps only obstacle to long-term success is the political will to see the job through.

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sevaghves · 8 months

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I see some misunderstanding among Armenians about the capabilities our state, the Republic of Armenia, has had in the last two decades.

The corruption of the previous governments left the army in a really bad shape. Their incompetence and subjugation to Russia lowered our position in the Karabakh negotiations to 0. Same about relationship with the West. US and EU were very favorable to Armenia in late 1990s but grew to mistrust us due to Sargsyan and Kocharyan's loyalty to Putin.

Russia has been arming Azeris more heavily than us for over a decade. It is no secret that Putin's plan is to recreate the Russian empire and the only reason Putin isn't touching Azerbaijan is that it already belongs to Turkey.

In these circumstances, we entered the 2020 war without the things we needed the most: a well-armed and trained army, and good relations with world powers.

Nikol Pashinyan's government was well aware of Russia's intentions and pledged to maintain the same foreign policy as the previous governments to prevent bloodshed in Artsakh. It didn't work because Putin already knew how weak our country was. Why negotiate with someone you can easily outpower? The West didn't react to Pashinyan's signals, because they had a bad experience in Georgia and didn't want to interfere if things went south again in the South Caucasus.

After the 2020 disaster, Pashinyan's government faced the same external threats, but with even less resources. In the negotiations, every independent move that protected Armenia's sovereignty was punished by Russia through Azeri attacks on our borders.

The war in Ukraine changed a lot. The West grew very concerned with territorial integrity of states. Azerbaijan couldn't make more land grabs without consequences. Artsakh thus remained the only leverage Russia had on Armenia, which gave Armenians hope that the ethnic cleansing of 2020 would not resume as it would mean the end of legal Russian presence in this region.

For the West, it is far more convenient to work with Armenia without Artsakh. Russia's apparent betrayal is also in the West's favor.

Could Pashinyan's government have done more?

The problem isn't that they aren't making reforms and correcting the foreign policy. The problem is that they are too slow and they lack political foresight to be proactive. Unable to fight for Artsakh now, they seem to have chosen to let the ethnic cleansing happen to justify severing ties with Russia and turning towards the West.

This government chose to fight in 2020 when they had no chance of winning. They chose not to repeat that in 2023. Only the lack of a coherent and competent political force that could compete with this government in the elections has kept Pashinyan in power. Everyone else is just worse than his team.

But we as citizens must admit our own share of blame. We underestimated the danger. We didn't prepare for war. We put all responsibility on the government we knew wasn't effective enough.

This is our chance to unite and reunite as a nation. Train and prepare for conflicts. Be better educated about foreign affairs. Demand higher standard from politicians. Stop criticizing each other for having a different opinion. Work together to become stronger and produce a better political elite.

#armenia #artsakh #putin #pashinyan #war #karabakh #observations

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council-of-beetroot · 1 year

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Hello. I'm pretty new to this fandom, joined because of the great fanworks that I have stumbled across and i've been enjoying the fanon interpretations of Poland's character you guys had.

Recently, i've decided to check out the canon stuff about him and it turned out to be... rather disappointing. There's still some stuff that I liked, like some of the silliness. sassy attitude and his little capes. But overall, at least for me, he comes across as an unlikable character with very few positive qualities or moments. He seems incredibly self centered, childish, incompetent and lacks common sense to a ridiculous degree. While i'm all in for making fun of ourselves, I'm even a polandball enjoyer, at least in polandball, every character is shallow and ridiculed. In hetalia, most of the characters are more well-rounded, and Poland does not come across as one of them. There's just not much positive qualities to balance it out.

The lack of polish stereotypes is also glaring. The only ones that i've noticed are selfishness (not very specific, every country did what it needed to thrive but spot on i'd say) and being incredibly dumb, which I believe comes from 'polish jokes', based on hima's comments and the two comics about them that he had made. And well, I'm personally not really fond of this stereotype, especially if it's supposed to be the main basis of his character. (I've even seen some people saying this is spot on and citing an example used by nazi propaganda to prove this claim. As a polish person, this rubs me the wrong way and I find these claims kinda hurtful). By this, I'm not saying he should be an edgy ""true pole"", but some more relevant stereotypes would've been nice.

(And, for the record, I don't really mind the femboy thing. Actually, I find it hilarious how it aligned with the semi-recent meme of "Average polish male is an anime femboy", unrelated. Although, I don't like it when people portray it as his only character trait)

Another thing is, his relationship with Lithuania. Aside from maybe 4 scenes (one of which is a dream) where he does show concern/care for him, he's just... an asshole. He constantly pushes him around, ignores him, dumps his work onto him and is overall a bad friend (historically, fair. But it still leaves him unlikeable). When Lithuania is about to be taken away by Russia, he just treats it like a joke, does nothing and comments on his face. Considering the situation, that's REALLY terrible and Lithuania resents him for this, rightfully so. There are claims that he's improved in that regard nowadays, but there's hardly any canon stuff about him in present day, so it's hard to judge the character based on that.

There have been numerous theories i've stumbled upon that say that his behavior actually a ruse. I think that would make his character better if it was true, however there's little canon evidence for this. In one scene, we're told by bystanders that he usually doesn't act this silly, but we're never really shown this. In pretty much every comic he's consistently shown as clueless. If it was true, surely there would be a scene that hints at that? Or at least I didn't notice anything of that sort.

I've seen a lot of comments made about how he's actually strong and could fight but it's not really backed by what is shown in canon. On the contrary, he's consistently had been made out as incompetent, weak and needing to be saved by Lithuania.

In the battle of Grunwald comic Poland and his army are potrayed as well, shit, and Lithuania's army is badass, saves the day and is the only reason they won even though i'm pretty sure that's not even accurate. Of course, that is not to discredit Lithuania, they definitely had their part in this but so did Poland.

I understand that it was just for a silly webcomic, creative liberties can be taken and a japanese man is not going to be an expert on eastern european history but on top of everything else this feels like adding salt to the wound, especially since it's our most well known victory. (Other things i'm a bit salty about include complete lack of interactions with Hungary and the birthday date. And all the missed potential.)

To clarify, I don't hate hetalia, I like the characters and concept quite a bit, but i'm a bit disappointed about the potrayal of my country after seeing the cool fanon takes. I guess since I know it well I'd be critical of it the most.

I've really tried to find some positive things about him but I just wasn't able to. Am I missing something? Could you shed some light on the aspects of his canon character that you and other people like? I thought you would be the right person to ask this since you seem to love the guy. Sorry for the lengthy ramble. Thank you ^-^

Yeah I can't blame hima Because i had to make a series about nations of the world there are definitely some i have no clue about but I wish he would do more with Poland's character. I find this series to be pretty much tell don't show when it comes to characters like there will be things listed in bios but we never actually see them.

I know there was a long period where Poland was absent from the manga and the in the older manga editions (the last time before the one with Gamer Poland was was in 2013 or 2014) the characterisations aren't polished yet compared to now so we get a lot of weird aspects of personalities that Hima just kind of ignores now

If you watch the dub rather than the sub there is even more of a contrast where i was watching it and thinking about the dialogue changes that made it so Poland and Lithuania did nothing but insult each other which makes it hard to even think they would be friends.

The last strip Poland was in i feel was quite nice because he was actually a decent person for once. And we got this too where Himaruya actually talks about something Polish.

I have heard time to time that his character was based on some inside jokes so that might be why his character is so peculiar.

Another panel i think adds at least a teeny bit of depth is this one where Poland and Lithuania are actually enjoying each other's company. And it kind of suggests Poland has a bit more going on than at face level. However, like I said Hetalia is very tell don't show so we don't ever see those moments that would show him more subdued.

Here's one of my favourite panels

But yeah in general this fandom makes the source material way cooler than it actually is. I mean the fanart and fanfics are extremely high quality. Plus, i feel like with Poland in particular, he draws in a lot of people through the historical cultural aspects from people who are quite dedicated to creating a compelling story of Feliks Łukasiewicz and developing his character where Hima hasn't bothered to.

So i think it's a case where Hima just doesn't really know what to do with Poland and his characterization.

But yeah, that one panel with the light bulb jokes? Really Hima? 🙄 Or that scene with France and England that pisses me off because of how inaccurate it is and I'm tired of hearing the German tanks and Polish horses myth. Ngl, when i first heard of the show i thought Poland was going to be more offensive because a lot of the stereotypes given to Poles from outside Poland aren't very flattering.

Although now you got me thinking would i like Poland as a character as much if i wasn't Polish and didn't have that historical and cultural background to add. Is that why other characters to me feel flat? Because i don't know the history of those countries and Hima doesn't either.

Some positive aspects i try to find in his character are

He's very out of the box in his thinking. Which to me fits the polish spirit i mean the nation always seems to do things their own way

He seems to get along with people well. I mean he is always shown with completely random characters half the time.

I do like to delve deeper into his social anxiety because i can totally relate as someone who is extraverted but has severe social anxiety

The fact that he is someone who remains cheerful after everything he's been through

Least Hima gave him an actual Polish name

I do like that he is more than just someone who has been through a rough history. You see so often in other works where characters are pretty much their trauma and not much more.

And his gender nonconformity is honestly so iconic. Despite how things are now, if you look back at polish history, you can see that Poland was surprisingly progressive at times (It was fair for it's day). So i feel like it fits a country that always kind of paved it's own path and did it's own thing to have the personification do their own thing as well. Plus, it is just so fun of Feliks too.

This is very rambly so i apologize if it's difficult to read and figure out what I'm trying to say here because i don't really know 🤣

#hetalia #hws poland #aph poland #anon

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tomorrowusa · 2 years

Link

In Ukraine, Russian soldiers who have been refusing to fight in Putin’s incompetent and illegal war are being thrown in jail.

A group of Russian soldiers have accused their commanders of jailing them in eastern Ukraine for refusing to take part in the war, in a rare public exposure of tensions inside the ranks of Russia’s army over the invasion.

Maxim Grebenyuk, a lawyer who runs the Moscow-based advocacy organisation Military Ombudsman, said at least four Russian soldiers had filed written complaints with the investigative committee, demanding punishment for the superiors who oversaw their detainment.

“We already have a list of 70 Russian soldiers who were held as prisoners. In total, about 140 soldiers were held,” added Grebenyuk, who represented the soldiers.

In one written testimony sent to Russian prosecutors on 1 August and reviewed by the Guardian, a soldier described how, after refusing to return to the battlefield, he was jailed for more than a week in different cells in the Russian-controlled territory of Luhansk.

“As a result of what I believe were tactical and strategic mistakes made by my commanders … and their total disregard for human life … I made the decision not to continue in the military operation,” said Vladimir, a soldier whose name has been changed at his request.

This is not the first time such incidents have taken place.

A number of Russian court documents previously revealed that hundreds of soldiers have been fired for refusing to take part in the invasion.

But the written complaints are the first official testaments that shed light on the more severe punishments faced by those who refuse to fight in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has not formally declared war, meaning contract soldiers who opt against fighting can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted or jailed, said Mikhail Benyash, a lawyer who has in the past represented soldiers who refused orders to go to Ukraine.

Putin has been pretending that his genocidal assault on Ukraine isn’t an actual war. Because of Putin’s chosen wording, soldiers who won’t fight can’t be charged with mutiny or desertion under the circumstances.

If soldiers don’t wish to fight for Russia, it’s easy to understand why. Putin’s invasion has featured one bungling incident after another. Such gross ineptitude does not inspire confidence among troops.

The opposition Belarusian news service NEXTA reported yet another such incident via Twitter.

Nice of Russia to blow up its own ammunition supplies. That’s less work for Ukrainian forces.

#russia #invasion of ukraine #russian troops refusing to fight #jailing of troops #ammunition explosion #russian army incompetence #vladimir putin #россия #владимир путин #нет войне #путин хуйло #это ВОЙНА а не 'спецоперация'#руки прочь от украины!#слава україні!

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blueiskewl · 1 year

Video

A Devastating Defeat for Russia at Vuhledar

Russia has lost at least 31 military vehicles in their failed attack on Vuhledar.

13 tanks, 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or abandoned.

Ukraine just scored a major win in Vuhledar.

Russia’s widely-anticipated winter offensive has begun. Aiming to extend its control over eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, Russian troops are attacking north and south of Donetsk city.

In the northern sector, around the city of Bakhmut, the Russians slowly are advancing—albeit at staggering cost.

In the south, around Vuhledar, the Russians’ losses are just as steep—but they’ve made no clear gains that could justify the casualties. Vuhledar is turning into a meatgrinder for the Russian army, with enormous implications for the wider offensive.

The latest Russian attack on Vuhledar—a town with a pre-war population of just 14,000 that lies a mile north of Russian-held Pavlivka, 25 miles southwest of Donetsk—kicked off on Monday.

Seemingly a couple of battalions of Russian mechanized troops, together riding in a few dozen T-80 tanks and BMP-1 and BMP-2 fighting vehicles, advanced north.

The Ukrainian army’s elite 72nd Mechanized Brigade is entrenched around Vuhledar. It has laid minefields along the main approaches from Pavlivka. Its drones surveil the front. Its artillery is dialed in.

The Russians know this. And the assault force took rudimentary precautions. Tank crews injected fuel into their exhausts to produce smokescreens. At least one T-80 carried a mine-plow

But leadership and intelligence failures—and Ukraine’s superior artillery fire-control—neutralized these measures. The Russian formation rolled into dense minefields. Destroyed tanks and BMPs blocked the advance. Vehicles attempting to skirt the ruined hulks themselves ran into mines.

Panicky vehicle commanders crowded so tightly behind the smoke-generating tanks that Ukrainian artillery, cued by drones, could score hits by firing at the head of the smoke. The Russians’ daylong attack ended in heavy losses and retreat. The survivors left behind around 30 wrecked tanks and BMPs.

Vuhledar is further evidence of the downward spiral in Russian military effectiveness. Armies that lack robust recruitment, training and industrial bases tend to become steadily less effective as losses deepen.

Desperate to maintain the pace of operations, the army replaces any well-trained, well-equipped troops who’ve been hurt or killed with an equal number of new recruits—but without taking the time, or expending the resources, to train and equip those new troops to the previous standard.

So the army gets less and less competent even as it inducts more and more new personnel. Incompetence leads to even greater losses, which prompts the army to double down: draft more green troops, train them even less and hurry them to the front even faster than it did the previous recruits.

Apply this tragic model to Vuhledar and the Russian army’s failures make more sense. For months, the Russian marine corps’s 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades were responsible for the sector around Pavlivka. But the marines suffered devastating losses in repeated failed assaults starting last fall.

It’s possible both marine brigades now are combat-ineffective. Their replacement appears to be the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade, a new and inexperienced formation that belongs to the ill-fated 3rd Army Corps. The 72nd MRB formed in Russian Tatarstan and, as such, includes a high proportion of ethnic minorities. Cannon fodder to the Kremlin.

Outside Vuhledar, the Russian 72nd Brigade met the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade—and got beaten at least as badly as the marine brigades did. If this is the best Russia can do after a year of wider fighting in Ukraine, its ballyhooed winter offensive could be costly ... and brief.

By David Axe.

#ukraine #vuhledar #A Devastating Defeat for Russia at Vuhledar #russia #russian war on ukraine #tanks #russian armor #russian armor destroyed #the front line #war #world at war #weapons #battle #combat #fighting #failed assault #long reads

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ukrainenews · 11 months

Text

Mutinous Russian mercenaries who surged most of the way to Moscow have agreed to turn back to avoid bloodshed, their leader said on Saturday, in a de-escalation of what had become a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin's grip on power.

The fighters of the Wagner private army were just 200 km (125 miles) from the capital, said the leader, former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. The rebels had captured the city of Rostov hundreds of miles to the south before racing across the country.

"They wanted to disband the Wagner military company. We embarked on a march of justice on June 23. In 24 hours we got to within 200 km of Moscow. In this time we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood," Prigozhin said in an audio message.

"Now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Understanding … that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned."

The decision to halt further movement across Russia by the Wagner group was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in return for guarantees for their safety, his office said. There was no immediate word on the deal from Putin.

Earlier, Prigozhin said that his "march for justice" was intended to remove corrupt and incompetent Russian commanders he blames for botching the war in Ukraine.

In a televised address from the Kremlin, Putin said Russia's very existence was under threat.

"We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history," he said, vowing punishment for those who "who prepared an armed insurrection".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Wagner revolt exposed complete chaos in Russia.

"Today the world can see that the masters of Russia control nothing. And that means nothing. Simply complete chaos. An absence of any predictability," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

Video obtained by Reuters showed troop carriers and two flatbed trucks each carrying a tank driving 30 miles (50 km) beyond Voronezh, more than half way to Moscow. A helicopter fired on them near Voronezh.

More than 100 firefighters were in action at a fuel depot ablaze in Voronezh. Video footage obtained by Reuters showed it exploding in a fireball shortly after a helicopter flew by.

Further along the road, video showed, vehicles apparently placed as barricades to slow Wagner's advance had been tossed to one side.

Prigozhin, whose private army fought the bloodiest battles in Ukraine even as he feuded for months with the military top brass, said he had captured the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District in the city of Rostov without firing a shot.

'WILL THERE BE CIVIL WAR?'

In Rostov, which serves as the main rear logistical hub for Russia's entire invasion force in Ukraine, residents milled about calmly, filming on mobile phones as Wagner fighters in armoured vehicles and battle tanks took up positions.

One tank was wedged between stucco buildings with posters advertising the circus. Another had "Siberia" daubed in red paint across the front, an apparent statement of intent to sweep across the breadth of Russia.

"Will there be civil war?" a woman in Rostov asked the mercenaries who took over the city. "No, everything will be fine," a fighter answered.

The region surrounding Rostov is an important oil, gas and grains hub.

In a series of hectic messages overnight, Prigozhin had demanded that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov should come to see him in Rostov.

'SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE'

Western capitals said they were closely following the situation in nuclear-armed Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany and Britain, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to counterparts from G7 nations.

The top U.S. military officer, Army General Mark Milley, cancelled a scheduled trip to the Middle East because of the situation in Russia.

The insurrection risked leaving Russia's invasion force in Ukraine in disarray, just as Kyiv is launching its strongest counteroffensive since the war began in February last year.

"This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times," Britain's defence ministry said.

#russia #wagner group #rostov

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nation-of-bros · 11 months

Text

No government in this world is worth your sacrifice

Honestly, as a German, I would even support any power to eliminate this treacherous remote-controlled government full of idiots in Berlin, which is reverting the entire country back to a pre-industrial forest landscape from which an incredible number of companies are currently migrating abroad. There is absolutely no reason for me to take up arms to defend this green climate hysterical society led by the most criminal and incompetent politicians.

And the biggest joke right now is that we're supposedly being "threatened," threatened by a nation at war with another crappy nation that, against all reason, we're supporting with money and weapons instead of just stay neutral. So Russia now has every reason to attack EU countries, especially Poland and Germany! We absolutely created this "threat" ourselves! Why should I sacrifice myself economically or even physically for something that is in every respect self-inflicted?! My willingness to make any personal sacrifices even slipped down in the minus range, which means that I only seek maximum personal gain. Any other behavior just seems stupid to me after the last few years.

I feel absolutely no longer part of this society and do not regret its demise. Moreover, I don't define myself by my country, but mainly by my ethnicity, my descent, and therefore jokingly describe myself as the last of my people. I think subconsciously I've always thought that way, as the thought of dying heroically for this country has seemed pretty pointless to me all along, especially now facing these bad developments! Not even all Western ideals together would it be worth sacrificing my own life just so that others can continue to watch Netflix, to eat McDonald's shit or to feel morally better because they demonstrate for more "climate protection" with an autistic girl on Fridays! Should I really die for it, fighting the evil Russian beast so they can still live like this?! Nope, I'm not that stupid!

If all EU countries behaved neutrally and not like hysterical bitches of the USA, there would be no danger of war with Russia. Western interference right on Russia's doorstep was a red line crossing for the Russian bear. And instead of letting common sense prevail, we even delivered tanks and rockets to some white pride dudes who would be considered neo-Nazis here in every respect, but are suddenly fighters for Western values in their own country. Now tanks with the Iron Cross are rolling against Russia again. Whatever, the western mainstream convinces us that this time it would end well and, even more grotesquely, that we Germans are standing "on the right side" today, despite the constellation being suspiciously similar to 1943! So it doesn't really feel right, it feels like some pretty sick shit.

In the end, it makes no difference under which flag a soldier or mercenary pulls the trigger. The fact that they pull the trigger for their leaders nonetheless makes them all murderers as part of the ongoing spiral of geopolitical violence. Of course, their motivation is mostly money or compulsion. On the other hand, Napoleon once said that soldiers do not risk their lives for ridiculous pay, but out of conviction in the common cause, even to the point of sheer fanaticism. The willingness to die for the common cause is ultimately imperative for successful soldiers, which is particularly evident in the demotivated Russian army. However, as I have already explained, there is no reason for me to die for my country and this sick society, let alone money or obligations would make me kill for these scum.

There are also a lot of Nazis in the West

In fact, with its pathological hatred of everything Russian, the entire West has made Putin even stronger, because nothing unites people more than a common enemy. Russians who had previously been critical of Putin rallied behind him for Western revulsion and sanctions attacked all head-on, also those people who have absolutely nothing to do with the Kremlin's decisions but are being treated like war criminals, not least since Zelenskyy was allowed to spread his hate messages in all western parliaments through his fucking pathetic video calls. Zelenskyy's ridiculous speeches quickly met with euphoric approval from the millions of trained sheep, so it was not long before the first cars of Russians were damaged or windows of Russian shops were smashed. Yes, the West is incredibly better! Do they seriously expect me to fight and sacrifice my salvation for them?

Should Putin now go berserk and press the red button to drop a few nuclear bombs on Berlin and other major European cities, it's their own fault. Then, as a refugee, I would bolt right away and leave them all to their own shit. I don't think it will ever come to that. Yet the entire continent is harming itself with this intolerable interference in this Slavic civil war somewhere in Eastern Europe, which simply shouldn't concern us. But just like influenza viruses or any CO2 in the atmosphere, this thing has become another dominating factor for this hysterical society. I just don't feel like it; I've never had that! So I have to draw my own conclusions and come to terms with the circumstances IN MY WAY.

#politics #essay

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