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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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THE TRUTH ABOUT CJ SPILLER

Fantasy football is knocking on the doorstep and CJ Spiller is one of more intriguing players in this year's draft. Spiller was a consensus first round pick last year due to his incredible 2012 showing (see above video) combined with the workload that Buffalo's coaching staff had planned for him. There is no denying that Spiller disappointed fantasy owners, rushing for 933 yards (4.6 YPC) on 202 carries with a meager 185 yards receiving on 33 receptions. On top of that, Spiller only reached the end zone twice all season, pathetic for a 1st round pick. Now, heading into the 2014 season, Spiller is currently being drafted in the mid-third round, a full two rounds later than last season. There are two primary reasons why owners are backing off this season, the first being that Spiller is "injury prone" and "can't stay healthy" and the second being that Buffalo's backfield is "too crowded" and it's a "RBBC" situation. I happen to disagree with both of these reasons because they just aren't true. You may think that I am biased as a Bills fan, but I assure you that I watch every NFL game in great detail so that I can approach fantasy with a fair and honest perspective. I don't just watch games, I watch plays, often over and over again, slowed down here, paused there and of course with the ALL22 film as well which often tells a completely different story.

When we take a closer look at Spiller's numbers and the injuries that plagued him for the majority of 2013 and briefly in 2012, we're left with these facts. Spiller sustained a separated shoulder on 9/23/12 versus the Browns where he was tackled and landed on by the defender squarely on his shoulder, right on the button with no give in either direction. I have watched this play over and over in slow motion and firmly believe this was a "freak play". Had the defender been a split second sooner or later in making the tackle, Spiller would have most likely avoided injury all together. Even so, Spiller gutted it out and played all 16 games in 2012, although clearly limited in the two games that followed. He finished the season strong with touch totals of 25, 15, 15, 20, 26 and 26 in six out of the last seven games, not exactly a light workload. His second minor injury came in the preseason of 2013 where he took a spike to the knee and sustained a cut, however the injury was just a scare and Spiller missed no time because of it, again somewhat of a "freak injury" and barely worth mentioning. Apparently, these two minor injuries weren't enough to keep Spiller out of the first round last year, which brings us to his third and most notable injury, the dreaded high ankle sprain suffered in Week 4 against the Ravens. Before the injury, Spiller was off to a slow start and was shut down in Week 1 versus the Patriots and Week 3 against the Jets. In Week 2 versus the Panthers, Spiller did rush for over 100 yards on just 16 attempts against what turned out to be one of the better run defenses in the league. After the high ankle sprain, Spiller was just not the same guy. After starting the season with touch totals of 22, 19, 11 and 23 his playing time was cut drastically and he was seen constantly hobbling off the field on just about every play. Spiller was unable to establish any rhythm and noticeably lost his burst and cutting ability. Spiller sat out Week 8 at New Orleans, but Week 5 through Week 17, bum ankle and all, Spiller amassed 703 rushing yards on 136 carries for a 5.16 average, slightly higher than the season averages for LeSean McCoy at 5.12 and significantly higher than Adrian Peterson at 4.54 yards per carry. Spiller finally started looking healthy again around the middle of December and finished the season with touch totals of 14, 24 and 24. I don't think I can stress how limiting a high ankle sprain is for a player, especially a finesse back who relies heavily on burst and agility. Averaging 5.16 yards per carry with a high ankle sprain is flat out ridiculous. Look at Roddy White's 2013 season which was a major disappointment as he sustained the same injury. Up until that point, White had played in every single game of his career, all 16 for eight straight seasons. "Injury prone" and "can't stay healthy" are too often thrown around and I think it's important to really look at the type of injury and how that injury occurred. In Spiller's case and in Roddy's, a high ankle sprain is not something I would be worried about moving forward. Roddy White is certainly not injury prone and I don't believe Spiller is either. On top of that, Spiller appears to have a high tolerance for pain and is willing to gut it out and take that pain rather than watch from the sidelines. That brings us to Buffalo's backfield in 2014. As I've already stated, Spiller was receiving a good amount of touches when healthy, often in the 20-25 range. Buffalo ran the ball more than any team in the NFL last year, a whopping 546 times. Given the high paced offense combined with the depth at running back and a young EJ Manuel, I don't expect this number to fluctuate much. There is plenty of ball to go around and the Bills have openly stated that Spiller is the feature back this season. An important thing to remember is that Spiller is in a contract year. There are rumors that it may be his last season in Buffalo, meaning either way, the Bills need to find out what Spiller is truly capable of. They aren't going to let him walk without giving him the opportunity to showcase his talent and likewise, they aren't going to re-sign him without seeing what he can do with a heavier workload. Fred Jackson might still have some gas left in the tank and although his mileage is relatively low, 33 years old is still pushing it. I believe that the real question isn't how many touches will Spiller get, but how many of Fred's 200+ touches will the young and talented Bryce Brown see? I also believe that Brown was brought in to be Jackson's future replacement. Given the number of plays that the Bills run, two skilled running backs are necessary in this uptempo offense. It's easy to call Spiller injury prone or to believe that Buffalo is going to use a committee approach, but when you dig below the surface, Spiller's usage last season was a direct result of his ankle injury. It's too early to call him "injury prone" given the fact he hasn't torn, broke or pulled anything and hasn't sustained any concussions, college or NFL. It's notable that Spiller played in 52 straight college games and 47 out of his last 48 games from 2011-2013, although he exited early and was limited in many of those games. Despite his limitations last season, Spiller had 235 total touches and I would not be surprised if he finished 2014 with over 300 touches. He would need 19 touches per game to reach this mark, certainly possible given his previous workload when healthy.

Nobody questions Spiller's talent, only his durability and the crowded Buffalo backfield. Neither of these is any concern to me, but what is a concern is his TD totals and touches near the goal line. I expect Fred Jackson, Frank Summers and Anthony Dixon to get the bulk of goal line carries. Still, Spiller's overall talent combined with his receiving ability still gives him high first round upside. Due to the lack of goal line opportunities, Spiller is just not worthy of a 1st round pick this fantasy season but the 3rd round is a bit too far in the opposite direction. I personally hope that Spiller's ADP stands pat, because I have no problem drafting him as early as the second round. Buffalo's coaching staff recently stated the depth at running back will allow them to use Spiller more as a receiver, which would obviously get him more touches, often in space. Additionally, Mike Williams and Sammy Watkins can stretch the field much more that last season. Watkins will most likely require safety help. Don't be afraid to take a shot on Spiller this season. He's 100% healthy and reports are that he's back to "cutting on a dime." Spiller recently told reporters that he "hasn't felt this good since 2012". We all know what happened in 2012.

#CJ Spiller #Fantasy #Fantasy Football #Bills #Buffalo Bills #Football #FFP #Spiller

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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POST INJURY RB PRODUCTION

I've made it very clear that I am all in on Arian Foster this season. Many are worried about his health, but I'm not all that concerned. Foster openly stated that his surgery was much more minor than most believed and that he was able to bounce back quickly because of this. We live in an age where players are back on the field in no time after suffering injuries that used to be career threatening. Foster is currently 100% and participated in OTAs and minicamp fully. I believe Foster still has enough fuel in the tank for a few more productive seasons. He was really finding his groove before his season was cut short last year. The point of this post isn't to look at types of injuries but more so the durability and workload coming back from an injury. Most fantasy owners shy away from players who were injured the previous season but in most cases, these players bounced back quite well and set career highs in major statistical categories. A few exceptions would be Darren McFadden, MJD and Fred Jackson. DMC is perhaps the most injury prone running back in the league and has never played in more than 13 games in his six year career. MJD may be a case of high mileage combined with his size and conditions that were not optimal. Jackson played in just 10 games in back to back seasons before rebounding last season, but when you take a look at the larger picture, there is really no evidence that one should be hesitant to draft a back returning from a major injury. In fact, the evidence suggests that they are poised to succeed. I believe that there are several factors that contribute to this, the first being a lightened workload the previous season. These guys aren't machines, what we may think of as "rusty" might actually be "refreshed". A second factor is the amount of work put in during the offseason during rehab. We always hear that players come back "stronger" after an injury, and I believe there is some truth to that. Third, a player making a return is going to be more motivated than ever to come back strong and make up for the previous season. No player wants to be labeled as injury prone or past his prime.

The above chart takes a look at several running backs and how they fared in their post injury seasons. The green highlights denote career highs for that player or at least a tie for their career high. Again, I'm focusing more on games played and workload, but the production is also very telling. Foster has consistently produced as a top back and the opportunity he'll have this season combined with my theory could mean a career year. Wouldn't that be something?

#Arian Foster #Texans #Injury #Fantasy Football #Football #NFL #FFP

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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THE 2014 ULTIMATE SLEEPER LIST (IN PROGRESS)

There a multiple types of sleepers but in all instances, the player in question is undervalued due to the fact that their ADP does not reflect their probable or potential output. Obviously, more potential is better but potential does not always equate to probable. Players who possess adequate potential but who are less probable to do so qualify as "deep sleepers". These players may need an injury or poor play ahead of them on the depth chart to get the opportunity to produce, but the potential is there. Deep sleepers often go undrafted. A sleeper could be a rookie, a breakout candidate, a bounce back candidate or a player aided by a change in teams or coaches. A value player to me is still a sleeper, as long as the value is great enough. As long as the majority of owners are "sleeping" on a player, I will refer to that player as a sleeper.

In addition to my list of sleepers for the 2014 NFL season will be an additional list of players who are worth keeping an eye on but are most likely not worth drafting. If your rosters are deep, some are worth a stash. This list will not be completed until after preseason is complete.

This post will be updated until the season starts. All scoring references are based on ESPN standard scoring. Some videos do not include the final few games from the 2013 season.

1. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals. Ellington is one of the most electric backs in the NFL. Elite type talent with polished receiving skills. Ellington added 10+ lbs with off season workouts and isn't as small as most believe, currently standing at about 5' 10", 210 lbs. He is in line to be the focal point of offense and possesses the versatility to run wide receiver routes. I expect 20+ touches per game or 25-30 if you believe Bruce Arians. One of the top breakout candidates for 2014. Ellington will be used creatively to minimize wear and tear. Has been compared to Jamaal Charles in addition to Spiller. If Ellington can avoid injury, we're talking some serious potential and a PPR monster. Ellington has his share of believers and he may shoot up drafts boards but the reward is well worth the risk in my opinion. He legitimately has the potential to be a top three running back, meaning even if taken in the 3rd round, the value differential would give you a serious edge. Led the league in rushing average last season. Will split out wide regularly. Ability to break ankles and leave defenders in the dust. Dangerous in open space, usually makes the first man miss. Potential to produce as a high end RB1. Top 5 RB finish quite possible if healthy. Given his ADP, there is no reason not to draft him.

#LanceDunbar and #AndreEllington are fun to watch. #NFL #cowboys #cardinals

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 21, 2013

If you need RB help and have some patience, add Andre Ellington while you can. #Cardinals #NFL

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

October 8, 2013

ANDRE ELLINGTON HIGHLIGHTS 2013 ARIZONA CARDINALS (SD) from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

AE from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

2. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants. Jennings is exactly what Tom Coughlin wants in a running back as he possesses true three down talent and literally does everything well. He can block, catch, run defenders over, make guys miss and most importantly, he had 199 touches last season and did not fumble once. Coughlin hates fumbles, period. Jennings is a fitness guru, is built to handle a heavy workload as the clear #1 back for the Giants. He isn't a burner but he has good speed for his size, making him deceptively fast. His initial burst is more impressive than his long speed. Jennings is one of the hardest running tailbacks in the NFL and his power and strength should get him some goal line carries too. He has performed well during his career minus one season where he was coming off an injury and where the situation around him was dismal. Sadly, David Wilson who was on track as the RB2 had his career cut short as he encountered problems following his return from his neck injury. There is little competition from the other backs on the roster aside from rookie Andre Williams but Coughlin's track record with rookies has not been good. Williams is slated to get bulk of GL carries but offers nothing in the passing game which is a key part of the new offense. Williams does look quicker with more burst than he did in college, but is still not a threat to take Jennings job. I've been keeping an eye on Jennings since his early days in Jacksonville and believe he is much more talented that given credit for. Jennings is PPR friendly and is the best all around back on the roster. Potential to produce as a high end RB1, Top 10 RB finish possible.

@YahooNoise Or you could just add Rashad Jennings who will produce similarly in a bounce back season behind the injury prone McDFadden.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 30, 2013

NumberFire.com - Why Rashad Jennings make sense for the Giants.

Rashad Jennings 2013 Highlights from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

3. Nick Foles, QB, Eagles. Many people aren't buying into Foles this season as a legit reliable QB1. Most serious fantasy owners are aware of his value, but the casual fan in your home league might not be. Foles isn't the ideal sleeper because of all the press he got last season but I am confident he will be a top fantasy QB. I was early on the Foles bandwagon back in September of 2012 and at the time, everybody thought I was crazy. I openly stated that Foles was a better option than Vick and that he would be the Eagles starter by 2013, finishing in the top 15 QBs with a realistic shot to crack the top 10 by seasons end. Foles finished 2013 as the #11 QB in standard ESPN leagues (did crack the top10 in my main league). He also rushed for 225 yards and 3 TDs on top of his 27:2 TD to INT ratio. Yeah, we all know Foles isn't very fast, but he has great footwork from his basketball background and that combined with pocket awareness is crucial to success in the NFL. Foles generally picks the ideal time to tuck it and run and is also called on for the QB sneak to punch it into the endzone. As I said, what makes Foles great is his footwork in the pocket, side stepping and escaping pressure and climbing the ladder while keeping his eyes down field. He delivers a clean ball, on time and he has above average arm strength. His height helps him to see the entire field and he is ahead of the game mentally too. Even with Desean Jackson's departure, Foles has enough weapons around him and is in an environment that will promote success. Foles finished 1st overall in yards per pass attempt, TD to INT ratio and QB rating. He was 8th overall in completion percentage. Durability is a plus. Above average intangibles. Foles has high end QB1 potential and has a very high ceiling in my opinion. Should challenge P. Manning, Brees and Rodgers.Top 5 QB finish is quite possible.

@NFoles8 diehard bills fan but i follow your game closely, every NFL snap pre/reg season to date. i 100% believe you will be an elite QB.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 19, 2013

@DeseanJackson10 with Foles, I've never seen a rookie QB with so much poise, touch, accuracy, arm strength and ability to spread the ball.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

September 8, 2012

NICK FOLES HIGHLIGHTS 2013 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (SD) from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

SEE FOLES/COOPER STAT ANALYSIS/PROJECTIONS

4. RILEY COOPER, WR, Eagles. Cooper is not getting the recognition he should for what he accomplished last season. I believe this is partially his doing and partially due to the fact that he doesn’t physically look like a “playmaking” wide receiver, but that is precisely what he is. Cooper has so many things going for him, I CANNOT believe he is being drafted as late as he is. Physically, he is over 6’ 3” and weighs in at a healthy 222 lbs. Combine that with solid athletic ability (drafted by Phillies out of high school), good hands, good deceptive speed, good route running and great ball tracking skills, and you’ve got a potential WR1 in a Chip Kelly offense with Foles letting it rip. Not convinced yet?

Cooper averaged 18.8 yards on 51 catches as a senior at Florida, second-best in the SEC behind Joe Adams of Arkansas, and he led the Eagles with 19.7 yards per catch in 2011. Among all Eagles with 75 or more catches, Cooper’s seventh all-time with 16.8 yards per catch, and he’s also eighth-highest among active NFL players. (as of 12/11/13) “I see the ball in the air, I just think it’s mine, it’s mine, and I’m going to do everything I can to go get it. I think my baseball background helps me make adjustments on the ball more than a guy maybe with straight go-get-it type speed, but for whatever reason, luckily, I can adjust to balls in the air. -Riley Cooper I believe Cooper is locked in as the Eagles deep threat on the Eagles. Maclin is a talented receiver but possesses different skills and does not have size or physicality that Cooper does. Maclin has a career receiving average of 13.4 over four seasons (259 receptions) and has never eclipsed the 13.8 mark in a given season. Cooper has a career average of 16.3 (93 receptions) including 16.6 in 2010, 19.7 in 2011 and 17.8 last season. Rookie WR Jordan Matthews is running with first team, but as the slot receiver, competing with Brad Smith. I am very high on Matthews as he was one of the few rookie wide receivers that really stood out to me on film but I believe his big season is a year away still. When the Eagles let Jackson go, that was the confirmation of how much faith the Eagles have in Cooper and the rest of the receivers and tight ends. Legit WR1 talent. Top 15 WR finish possible. “

RILEY COOPER HIGHLIGHTS 2013 from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

For the record, this is what I stated regarding Alshon Jeffery before last season and I would apply the same statement to Cooper this season. I should clarify that I do not believe Cooper is on Alshon's level but I do believe that he will be "this year's Alshon" as far as WR1 production coming from a mid/late pick. "Two words… BIG THINGS - you will be kicking yourself for NOT drafting this guy - looks like a stud in the making to me."

@nickmflee22 find someone else to drop. jeffery = stud in the making and is really going to put up some nice numbers, but i do like dunbar.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 28, 2013

5. CJ Spiller, RB Bills. Just about everyone in the fantasy football community will say that CJ Spiller was a "bust last season". Many will say that he "wasn't worth the first round pick" and tell you they told you so. The main reason why CJ Spiller was a bust was because he played nearly the entire season with a high ankle sprain. The high ankle sprain is a nagging injury that severely limits a running backs burst and agility, specifically when making a cut. This was evident all season long as Spiller was regularly hobbled and limped his way to the sideline. His output may have been a bust for first round fantasy pick but his actual numbers are considered good by normal standards. With a high ankle sprain, Spiller carried the ball 202 times for 933 yards, good for a 4.6 average and added in 33 receptions for 185 yards. In his 314 carries in 2011 & 2012, Spiller averaged 5.75 yards per and amassed over 1,800 yards rushing.

CJ SPILLER 2012 Buffalo Bills Highlights from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

There is no question that Spiller possesses the skill, but some question is durability and touches in a crowded backfield. I do not believe Spiller has shown that he is injury prone, no more than the next guy. Although banged up, he has played in 52 out of his last 53 games. As far a touches go, I fully expect him to be the "showcase back". Fred Jackson will still play a major role and Bryce Brown will contribute, but Spiller should see 275+ touches, considering he had 235 last season with a bum ankle. The Bills will have one of the fasted paced offenses in the league and there is enough ball to go around. Spiller and Jackson both eclipsed 200+ carries last season. If healthy, I fully expect Spiller to eclipse 1,250 yards rushing with a healthy dose of receptions as well. High RB1 upside, top 5 RB finish possible. The Truth About CJ Spiller

6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR Panthers. There are several rookie wide receivers who I expect to produce this season and Benjamin is right up at the top of my list. His re-draft value is certainly higher than his dynasty value due to the perfect storm that has formed down in Carolina. His situation rivals that of Bishop Sankey, meaning he's going to see the field and be a major part of the offense. The Panthers parted ways with Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell and replaced them with two aging veterans, the 32 year old Jerricho Cotchery and the 31 year old Jason Avant. Benjamin possesses elite size, standing 6' 5" and weighing in at over 240 pounds. He doesn't have the best hands but he is capable of going up and getting the ball and will likely be Cam's top red zone target. Benjamin is not the fastest guy around, not even close, but he possesses more speed and athleticism than people give him credit for. He is a bit raw but I truly believe he will improve as the season wears on. I expect him to see plenty of snaps as he is a solid blocker in the run game and and obvious red zone target. Double digit TDs would not surprise me at all. I can't pass up Benjamin given his high upside and low risk based on ADP. 7. Lamar Miller, RB Dolphins. Miller was a semi-sleeper last season as many had high hopes for Miami product but the Dolphins running game was just plain awful and Miller did not get the amount of touches we all wanted to see. He performed "okay" when he was given touches, up and down at times. Overall though, I still saw glimpses of greatness. Miller's burst, vision and agility are all impressive. He is NOT a sexy pick this season, which is shocking to me given the fact that Knowshon Moreno and Daniel Thomas are his competition. The Dolphins offensive line was a mess last year and everything is in line for Miller to breakout. When I went back and watched all his touches from 2013, the one thing that stood out to me was that he needs to improve his lower leg drive and overall strength. There were several plays where he was an arm tackle away from breaking a big one. I'll have to see how Miller actually looks in the preseason but if he put in the time this off season, he could offer immense value based on his ADP. Knowshon came in out of shape and now he's battling a knee injury that i suspected to be "bad". I'm not a fan of a healthy Moreno and I can't see Thomas being a threat at all. If you need depth at RB or missed out and are scrambling, Miller has as much upside as you could hope for given his ADP. Two words, "Bill Lazor".

Lamar Miller 2013 Dolphins from Dan Jay on Vimeo.

8. Khiry Robinson, RB Saints. Robinson has the potential to be an elite running back. He first caught my eye last preseason an an unknown tryout guy but his skill and potential was clear from day one. I don't watch a lot of college football but I do watch film on draft prospects and anybody who catches my eye. With the departure of Sproles and an unexciting Thomas/Ingram, the door is open for Robinson to step up and make a name for himself. I would describe his game as well rounded, solid vision with very good power, some speed and some shake and bake as well. His 40 time on record does not match his film. Robinson is still developing and admitted that he was confused at times last season, but all things are looking up. Robinson is worth a late pick in every format as his ADP makes his risk/reward obscene. He really stands out on film and he gets downhill in a hurry. I believe he is the future feature back in New Orleans and he'll take a major step forward this season.

I like Khiry Robinson a lot, think he should be worked into the gameplan more as season progresses.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

October 13, 2013

9. Marqise Lee, WR Jaguars. Lee is another rookie wide receiver who I believe can produce right out of the gate. On film, I felt like he was the most dynamic rookie WR not named Sammy Watkins. Justin Blackmon may never play for the Jaguars again and shifty WR Ace Sanders will also be suspended to start the season. Cecil Shorts and fellow rookie Allen Robinson are both currently injured and out an extended period of time. Lee has impressed his teammates and coaches and has a golden opportunity. I was a bit worried about his hands but that can be worked on. Lee has the ability to take it to the house on any play. With all rookie WRs, it's a gamble, but the payoff here could be HUGE.

10. Brandin Cooks 11. Golden Tate

12. Zach Ertz

13. Michael Floyd

14. Cordarrelle Patterson

15. Terrance Williams

16. Travis Kelce

17. Ladarius Green

18. Sammy Watkins

19. Lance Dunbar

20. Justin Hunter

21. DeAndre Hopkins

22. Tim Wright

23. Carlos Hyde

24. Kenny Stills

25. Marvin Jones

26. Jordan Matthews

27. Chris Owusu

28. Marlon Brown

29. Allen Hurns

30. Mike Williams

31. Ryan Tannehill

32. John Brown

33. CJ Anderson

34. Cecil Shorts

35. Charles Johnson

36. Latavius Murray

37. Mike Glennon

#Fantasy Football #fantasy #football #sleepers #sleeper #draft #2014 #nfl #ffp #@danjay84

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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THE DIRTY THIRTY

Here's my life of 30 players I won't be drafting this season. Who you don't draft is just as important as who you do. Many of these players will have productive seasons, possibly great seasons but overall, I'm trying to minimize risk, especially when there is limited upside. When in doubt, just say no.

Trent Richardson, RB Colts - Has never impressed me at NFL level. Inconsistent to hit hole, burst unimpressive, risk/reward not worth it for me. Does not look any better this season.

Le'Veon Bell, RB Steelers - Bell had a productive fantasy season but overall, his yards per carry of 3.5 is a bit worrysome. Will not see TD totals from last season due to Blount. Lost significant weight in offseason, looks a bit quicker but not as powerful. Runs upright. No evidence but my gut says he's a risk to get injured this season. Heavy workload past two seasons, one being in college.

Doug Martin, RB Bucs - Martin should have a nice season but I am not sold on him yet so I cannot draft him late 2nd, where he is currently going. I would rather take Ellington or Spiller if available or wait on Rashad Jennings.

Zac Stacy, RB Rams - Volume back, limited ceiling, job security a possible issue. Tre Mason a threat to touches, especially if he learns how to block adequately. ADP presents too much risk and not enough upside for my liking.

Frank Gore, RB 49ers - Wrong side of 30. High mileage. Hunter out helps his cause but will ultimately affect other backs. Carlos Hyde looks solid and is the biggest threat to his touches.

Marshawn Lynch, RB Seahawks - Lynch could very well have a nice fantasy season but I do believe he's past his prime and although he's built for it, his workload is starting to add up. I do think he will see less work than last season and his ADP is too steep for my liking.

Rob Gronkowski, TE Patriots - Health is a major concern. Lots of talented TEs. Targeting Julius Thomas this season combined with a Zach Ertz, Ladarius Green or Travis Kelce.

Chris Johnson, RB Jets - A shell of his former self. Hasn't looked the same the past few seasons, hesitant to hit the hole, doesn't make guys miss or finish off runs. Will be utilized in passing game more but Jets have stated he isn't going to be a bell cow type. I'll pass unless he falls enough.

Ray Rice, RB Ravens - Suspended first two games. Although he looks better than last season, so does Pierce who lost weight. I felt he was sluggish last season and he appears to have returned to his 2012 form where is hit the hole and got downhill faster.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Raiders - High number of career carries looks like they're catching up. Crowded backfield. No faith in him or McFadden. Latavius Murray is the only Raiders back I am keeping tabs on, could steal the show if opportunity arises.

Cam Newton, QB Panthers - Potential is always there but too inconsistency due to new receiving core and poor o-line likely. Lack of weapons around him a worry. KB only threat. Health is now an issue. Better QB options are available.

Reggie Wayne, WR Colts - Age and health a concern. Upside and ceiling just aren't there. Plenty of other rising WRs to take a shot at. Best days are long behind him.

Pierre Thomas, RB Saints - Will still be valuable in PPR formats but is limited as a rusher, door is open for Khiry Robinson to make a name for himself. Robinson is the only Saints back I am targeting.

Andrew Luck, QB Colts - Never been as high on Luck as the next guy. Has had his moments and does have the potential to breakout, but I did not see enough out of his last season to warrant drafting him at his current ADP, not even close. Running game and o-line a concern.

Stevan Ridley, RB Patriots - Not drafting any Patriots RBs if I can help it. Every season turns into a headache and there's plenty of better options to choose from. Ridley seems to have some fumbling issues and BB hates that.

Tom Brady, QB Patriots - Brady is still a viable quarterback but I am starting to see a decline in his abilities. Lots of young/new pieces. Not confident in the weapons staying healthy. There are just too many safer options.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR Broncos - Loss of Welker helps Sanders in that it frees up targets, which should also boost Demaryius and Julius. I'm not entirely on the Sanders train. Don't think Peyton is going to come close to last seasons numbers and DT and JT are going to get theirs.

Eric Decker, WR Jets - Believe that most stock he has is a product of Peyton Manning. Decker doesn't stand out to me on tape and I believe his ceiling is limited, especially in NY. Little faith in Geno Smith as a consistent passer. Will pass on Decker and aim for one of the many young WRs primed to breakout.

Shane Vereen, RB Patriots - Another Patriots back that I choose to stay away from. Not a fan of wondering what Belichick will do every week. Vereen will have some nice weeks, but I'll look elsewhere at the RB position unless he fall enough in a PPR.

Anquan Boldin, WR 49ers - Turns 34 in October. Crowded WR group in SF. too much risk with Boldin this season. Time to part ways with one of my favorite WRs over the last decade.

DeAngelo Williams, RB Panthers - Wrong side of 30. Relatively no upside. Won't help in PPR. Loses goal line touches to Tolbert. Weak passing game could be disastrous for running game.

Marques Colston, WR Saints - Getting up there in age, has definitely lost a step. Normally reliable, but emergence of young Saints receivers is a worry. Time to sell, not buy.

Knowshon Moreno, RB Dolphins -Moreno has looked good since coming back but I believe he is a very average back. His film is unimpressive to me and I am trusting my gut and staying away. Numbers were inflated in Peyton led offense last season.

Darren McFadden, RB Raiders - No explanation needed.

Dwayne Bowe, WR Chiefs - Too inconsistent, little upside. No faith in Alex Smith as a downfield passer. Bowe has some injury concerns with finger.

Shonn Green, RB Titans - Green is seeing bulk of 1st team carries in pre-season but he has looked unimpressive. Has been running hard but right into guys. Little upside. Sankey appears further behind schedule than anticipated but has looked good running the ball lately. He may be eased in until he is ready to handle more snaps.

Donald Brown, RB Chargers - Had a nice 2013 season but has never wowed me. Second fiddle to Matthews. Expected 5-10 touches per game. Too many other backs I'd rather own.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB Bengals - Not guaranteed a roster spot. No upside. Minimal role if on team.

Steve Smith, WR Ravens - How much gas is left in the tank? I'm not willing to find out. Too many other receiving options on the rise.

Eli Manning - Will surely rebound in 2014 but consistency is an issue. Has looked pretty bad in new offense so far. Limited ceiling, better options available at QB position.

#dirty30 #dirththirty #fantasy #fantasyfootball #@danjay84 #draft #football #nfl #ffp

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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What if I told you that Arian Foster is a safer 1st RD pick than Jamaal Charles or that Riley Cooper is a safer pick than Marques Colston?

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 25, 2014

(RELATED ARTICLE - POST INJURY PRODUCTION) If your draft was today, the top three players off the board would most likely be Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson. Charles is hovering right around the 1-2 spot, but ranking these backs is like splitting hairs, so let's not do that. Instead, let me discuss why I feel that Charles is the least safest pick of all three and on top of that, Arian Foster is actually a safer pick than Charles. If all that mattered for drafting was looking at numbers from the prior season, then yes, Charles might be my number one pick, but there is so much more than needs to be factored in. First, let's talk injuries here. Running backs get injured, period. The position itself is "injury prone" more so than the players. Charles has missed significant time in 2011 and Foster missed significant time last season, but as of right now, both backs are healthy and looking good. For comparison, I will not reference either of these injury plagued seasons, but rather their production over the past three healthy seasons for each. Based on their track record, neither are "injury prone" in my book. Running backs get dinged up, it happens and it's unavoidable. If you want to talk injury prone, look no further than Darren McFadden who hasn't come close to playing 16 games during his six seasons in the NFL. With that being said, who is more likely to suffer an injury this season, the 5' 11, 199 lb Charles or the 6' 1, 227 lb Foster? Perhaps the answer is neither, but I couldn't say either way with any confidence since both have played in the roughly the same amount of games over the last four seasons. If you want to argue that Foster's back is a worry, then I'll argue that Charles' size is a worry. Second, let's talk production and track record. I am not going to spend a great deal of time talking down Charles, he's a very versatile player who is capable of putting up monster games and his explosiveness is undeniable but he did have a "career year" last season posting extreme highs in rushing TDs, receiving TDs and receptions. He caught 70 passes last season, double his 2012 output of 35 and 25 more than his 2010 total of 45 receptions. In addition, Charles scored 12 rushing TDs after scoring just 5 in 2012 and 5 in 2010. Last, he finished 2013 with 7 receiving TDs, matching his total career receiving TDs from 2008-2012. Clearly, the new offense made him the centerpiece of their offense, but duplicating those numbers is going to be tough. Word is that Knile Davis is going to see more touches this season. As far as Foster, he's produced consistently for several years and is in an optimal spot in Houston. His receiving numbers should see a nice spike and Ryan Fitzpatrick has a history of throwing to his backs often.

Let's take a look at the statistics for Charles and Foster and compare their totals since 2010 (see spreadsheet). Whether we're comparing rushing or receiving, Charles and Foster are neck and neck as far as overall yards and touches. Charles has the edge in yards per rush average, but frankly, I don't care about this average, I care about overall yards output. Foster is capable of more touches, therefore it evens out, hence the total yards being almost identical. If you do care about yards per rush average, then you probably should shade away from drafting Le'Veon Bell, Steven Jackson, Doug Martin, Pierre Thomas, Chris Johnson, Zac Stacy and Joique Bell, because they all average 3.9 yards or less last season per rushing attempt. Shockingly, Charles does not have a clear edge in any category, real statistics or fantasy. The TD differential alone is enough to make me worry about Charles, considering he just had a career year with 19 and he is still averaging over 4.5 less TDs than Foster over their last three healthy seasons. Foster has been the more proven, consistent back, period. Before his injury last season, Foster looked fresh, dominating some of the games top defenses. The TDs weren't there in those three games, but with numbers like that, the TDs will come and they will comes in bunches. When we take a look at the overall team situations, I believe Foster also has the edge. Yes, he's got a new head coach in Bill O'Brien and most likely, mediocrity at the QB position, but I have faith that O'Brien has the experience to properly utilize his players. As a Bills fan, I watched Fitzpatrick up close for many years although he is lacking in som areas, he is excellent at getting rid of the ball quickly and completing short-mid range passes. His arm strength is questionable and his accuracy is inconsistent, but man can he pass it to his running backs. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson combined for 676 yards on 77 receptions in 2012 and 711 yards on 78 reception in 2011 with Fitzpatrick. Although I feel that Andre Brown is a decent back, he's less of a threat than Ben Tate was and as far as Charles goes, I have a strong premonition that they will be giving second year back Knile Davis a larger role this season so they don't "overwork" the centerpiece of their offense. Davis is more compact and has nearly 30 pounds on Charles and I fully expect him to vulture some goal line carries. I just can't see Charles coming close to his 19 total touchdowns last season and I suspect a drop off in receptions and total yardage as well, especially if Davis has a larger role.

You may not agree with me, but I do believe I have an argument here. At the very least, maybe you'll consider taking McCoy or Peterson 1 and 2 or bump up Foster who has proven he does belong in the "elite" category. Veteran value is almost always a win. Cough cough Roddy White.

#Jamaal Charles #Arian Foster #Injury #Risk #Draft #Fantasy #FantasyFootball #football #Chiefs #Texans #FFP #@danjay84 Knile Davis #Fitzpatrick

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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NICK FOLES / RILEY COOPER 2014 STAT BREAKDOWN, RATINGS & PROJECTIONS My statistical analysis of Foles/Cooper includes 10 qualifying games where Foles attempted 'at least 15 passes' and Cooper had 'at least 1 target'. There are many ways to work out projections but I tend to take a balanced approach, looking at track record, film study, environmental changes, staff/player changes and logic/reasoning. Formula abbreviations are explained within the spreadsheet itself, with detailed explanations below.

RATINGS AND FORMULAS EXPLAINED

First, I took the 10 selected games and applied my GAME RATING formula to rate the games best to worst (1-10). This formula utilizes all major scoring categories to create three new categories whose total value represents the game rating. TDV is the Touchdown Value which measures touchdowns and interceptions simultaneously by subtracting the INTs from the total TDs. That number is then weighted 5x to stay on par with the average scores of the other two categories, COMPV and YPGV. Completion Value (COMPV) measures pass accuracy and pass volume simultaneously by subtracting the incomplete passes from the completions. Together, accuracy and volume help to rate consistency. Completing 9/10 passes for 90 yards is good, but completing 27/30 passes for 270 yards is better. They represent the same completion percentage and the same yards averages, but the latter is more consistent because it represent a larger sample size of attempts and therefore should be accounted for. Yards Per Game Value (YPGV) measures three yardage categories and averages them together, the first being the actual raw yards multiplied by .05. Essentially, 100 yards passing will yield 5 points, meaning 235 yards would equal 11.75 points, nearly the same as Foles' YDS/ATT and YDS/COMP combined average of 11.81 through the 10 games. Yards per attempt and yards per completion are the other two categories that factor into YPGV. Yards per attempt measures yards volume while yards per completion measures yards potency, or big plays. These three calculated values, TDV, COMPV & YPGV are then added together to make up the GAME RATING. Ratings are fairly consistent aside from the best and worst games, which are scored much higher and lower, along with the Snow Bowl which is arguably the second worst game when looking at all statistics. This makes sense because these games are by far the most memorable games and therefore should have major point differences to reflect this. If QB performance is poor enough, it can result in a negative points total. Had Foles thrown any interceptions in that dreadful Dallas game, he would have been in the red. The SEASON RATING formula for QBs that is based more on efficiency of production instead of total volume but does factor in TD/INT heavily, since that is one of the most important stat lines for a QB. COMPR is the Completion Rating which is similar to COMPV but rather than subtracting incomplete passes from completions for a cumulative value (differential), COMPR divides the completions by incomplete passes measuring the completion ratio. This ratio is then weighted x10 to reflect appropriate value in comparison to other categories used. The TDD is the Touchdown Differential and is a straight forward TD minus INT cumulative value similar to how "+/-" reflects goals for and goals against in hockey. Yards Value (YDSV) factors in the combined volume (YDS/ATT) and potency (YDS/COMP), weighted x2 for approriate value and then multiplied by completion percentage. AIYV is calculated the exact same way, but reflects the yards the ball traveled through the air rather than total yards of a play. Raw yardage is not considered as a standalone stat because not all yards are created equal, the value of a yard is relative to the other categories considered. Throwing for 4,000 yards in a season might sound good but when ranking QBs, 4,000 might not be so good, that is if the next guy threw for 5,000 yards and did so on 100 less pass attempts. Air yards were not incorporated for GAME RATINGS, only SEASON RATINGS. STAFFORD AND LUCK OVERRATED? ROMO, RIVERS AND DALTON UNDERRATED? I ranked the 2013 performances of some of the game's top QBs along with some of the most intriguing and talked about. The results support my opinion that Matthew Stafford is indeed overrated. Stafford has been an "average to slightly above average" quarterback for most his career but he is hardly in the elite category. His production is generally good but due to his passing volume, his efficiency has been dismal. Much of his success has come because he is also the beneficiary of one of the best wide receivers in the game. This, combined with volume are more responsible for his fantasy value than his actual skill. You may notice that I included Rodgers' 2012 campaign to give you a better idea of what I expect out of him this season. Please be aware that these aren't QB rankings for fantasy, as they do not reflect rushing stats and only include 10 QBs I have chosen to use as examples. Currently as of late June 2014, Andrew Luck is the 5th QB off the board (http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php), behind Stafford and ahead of Foles. This is just way too early to draft Luck in my opinion. I've been pretty ho hum about Luck since day one and I didn't see enough out of him last season that I even want to draft him this season. Could he break out? Maybe. But if you're "hoping" he does with an aging Wayne, an inconsistent Nix, a 5' 8", 178lb Hilton and a questionable running game, I can't justify drafting him 5-10 QB spots ahead of guys like Dalton, Rivers and Romo and in many cases, ahead of Foles. I highly doubt Luck is going to outperform Rodgers, Brees or Manning which means he basically has to outperform every other QB in the league to give you any value. In other words, you are drafting Luck at or near his ceiling, leaving very little room for error and relatively no upside in value at QB5. In my neck of the woods, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton and Phillip Rivers are a few of the most debated QBs who people also love to hate. Dalton and Luck finished neck and neck last season in ESPN standard scoring (277/279) and Dalton has improved each season, even if the improvement was minimal. His playoff woes may be real but how is that relevant to fantasy? Why is he being drafted as the #17 QB off the board when he is loaded with talent around him and finished 5th overall for QBs last season? Rivers and Romo finished 7th and 10th and Romo has been in the top 10 for three years running. Why are you drafting Luck 5th overall QB in "hopes" that he has a Romo/Dalton/Rivers types of season which you can get several rounds later? Dalton may be passing less but he still has AJ Green and Giovani Bernard who will get the ball and make big plays. If it's that bad of a situation that Dalton truly should be the #17 quarterback off the board, then shouldn't Giovani Bernard be higher? Or would you rather invest in BJGE? Just kidding. This offense moves the ball, points will be scored and perhaps some quarterbacks are better in run first offenses. As far as Foles, I'm not sure how he hasn't proven that he should be drafted ahead of Luck. Why is it that defenses will somehow solve Chip Kelly's offense but everybody elses offense is immune to tape study? I keep hearing that Jackson was such a "big" loss for Foles. Okay, so why is he being drafted so late when RGIII is the 7th QB off the board (6/24) right now? He's playing opposite Garcon and Morris doesn't catch the ball. These are the questions you need to be asking yourself, because that is how you find value in the draft. Romo and Rivers have both shown consistency and I believe are both in for good to great seasons. Both are surrounded with talent and Rivers has a few young weapons that could really blossom in Keenan Allen, VIncent Brown and Ladarius Green. I personally, would not feel good about drafting Luck ahead of any of these quarterbacks, except maybe Dalton.

PROJECTIONS Moving on, there are a few instances where I used "logic/reasoning" to work projections. The first is pass attempts for Foles which is based on 1,008 total offensive plays run for the Eagles in 2013. With a better grasp on the offense across the board, I expect the 1,100 play mark to be met. Considering that the pace slowed considerably last season when Barkley played, this is even more possible. Kelly went with a near 50/50 run/pass split, meaning 550 (34.4 per game) pass attempts is reasonable. I then used a 65% completion rate (64% in 2013) get to 358 completions. Foles improved his completion percentage every season in college, posting 62.5%, 63.6%, 67.1% and 69.1%, so again, 358 is very reasonable since it would reflect a 1% increase in completion rate, very possible for a developing QB in his second year with the same coach/offense. The second place where I used "logic/reasoning" is with average yards per attempt. The 9.12 average that Foles posted in 2013 is absurd and will likely lead to a regression, but I don't believe the regression will be severe. I plugged in 8.0, which is a reasonable estimate. I believe that Foles has one of the better deep balls in the league and that his intermediate passing is phenomenal. 8.0 is possible, even with the loss of Jackson. The TD category is one of more difficult stats to predict. Obviously, Foles will have a tough time duplicating his his superhuman 27:2 TD/INT ratio and 47 projected TDs (prorated) is undoubtedly high, but is 40? How about 35 or 30? Cooper's 2014 projections we based off of Foles projections combined with the 10 games analyzed. Foles threw to Cooper 22% of the time in 2013. I expect this number to rise based on obvious rapport and the departure of Desean Jackson, but I didn't get too crazy as I increased his target percentage by 1% to 23% projected. I then used the 550 projected pass attempts to get to 127 targets. Using Cooper's catch rate of 68% with Foles through the 10 games listed computes to 86 projected receptions. Again, this is another reasonable number since Cooper is locked down as the outside starter and has the most experience with Foles out of any other WR on that roster. Cooper's average yards per of 19.72 through the 10 games analyzed with Foles seems ridiculous, but if you look at his body of work dating back to college (18.5 career average at Florida) and combine that with Foles' down field accuracy, it's really not all that ridiculous. Cooper's career NFL average is 16.3 (93 receptions) and his 2013 average was 17.8. We can all agree that Michael Vick has never had an accurate deep ball. Still, I could not justify using a 19.72 average to project Cooper's total yardage, not even close. This is the third example where I used logic/reasoning as I used his career average of 16.28 as a logical estimate. Based off of 86 projected receptions at a 16.28 average, we're just a hair shy of 1,400 yards receiving. Even if we shaved a few hundred yards and a few TDs off these projections, Cooper would still present immense value based on his ADP. Again, TDs were the only stat prorated here, giving us 11 on the season. DOUBTERS Most the experts and fans across the board are saying Cooper is going to be a disappointment, that he's going to come back down to earth. Don't buy into him. He's not fast enough. Why? What basis do people have other than they probably dislike the guy and haven't watched much film on him? The physical attributes are there, the track record in college is there, the NFL production is there and the opportunity is there with no Jackson and a Foles led Chip Kelly offense. What am I missing here? I predict that Riley Cooper will be this season's Alshon Jeffery as far as value and production, and I wouldn't be surprised if Cooper outperformed him this year. If you're worried about his speed, 40 times are overrated and only reflect a small isolated sample size which doesn't always translate or correlate to success and production. Even so, Cooper ran a 4.54 while Brandon Marshall ran a 4.52. Marshall is one inch taller and has about 10 pounds on Cooper. If you're worried about Cooper facing some CB1s, go ahead be worried. I'm not and neither are the Eagles. VIDEO Riley Cooper 2013 highlights (missing final 3 games). https://vimeo.com/81562362

Cooper is currently at #4 on my 2014 Ultimate Sleeper List which is in progress. 4. RILEY COOPER, WR, Eagles. Cooper is not getting the recognition he should for what he accomplished last season. I believe this is partially his doing and partially due to the fact that he doesn’t physically look like a “playmaking” wide receiver, but that is precisely what he is. Cooper has so many things going for him, I CANNOT believe he is being drafted as late as he is. Physically, he is over 6’ 3” and weighs in at a healthy 222 lbs. Combine that with solid athletic ability (drafted by Phillies out of high school), good hands, good deceptive speed, good route running and great ball tracking skills, and you’ve got a potential WR1 in a Chip Kelly offense with Foles letting it rip. Not convinced yet?

Cooper averaged 18.8 yards on 51 catches as a senior at Florida, second-best in the SEC behind Joe Adams of Arkansas, and he led the Eagles with 19.7 yards per catch in 2011. Among all Eagles with 75 or more catches, Cooper’s seventh all-time with 16.8 yards per catch, and he’s also eighth-highest among active NFL players. (as of 12/11/13) “I see the ball in the air, I just think it’s mine, it’s mine, and I’m going to do everything I can to go get it. I think my baseball background helps me make adjustments on the ball more than a guy maybe with straight go-get-it type speed, but for whatever reason, luckily, I can adjust to balls in the air. -Riley Cooper Cooper is locked in as the Eagles #1 deep threat on the Eagles. Maclin does not possess the same skills or size, only has a career receiving average of 13.4 over four seasons (259 receptions) and has never eclipsed the 13.8 mark. Cooper has a career average of 16.3 (93 receptions) including 16.6 in 2010, 19.7 in 2011 and 17.8 last season. Rookie WR Jordan Matthews is running with first team, but as the slot receiver, competing with Brad Smith. Not one WR on the Eagles is a threat to Coopers big play production. When the Eagles let Jackson go, that was the confirmation of how good Cooper is. Legit WR1 talent. Top 15 WR finish possible. What I stated about Alshon Jeffery before last season began also applies to Cooper this season. I should clarify that I do not think Cooper is on Alshon's level but I think his production this season will be very similar to Alshon's last season. Maclin is also very talented but I believe by next season, Jordan Matthews will be the most productive Eagles receiver. "Two words… BIG THINGS - you will be kicking yourself for NOT drafting this guy - looks like a stud in the making to me)"

Follow me on Twitter for regular fantasy football news and updates @danjay84, and check out @FBallbogger as well as his site, www.fantasyballblogger.com. Thanks!

#RILEY COOPER #ALSHON JEFFERY #EAGLES #Philadelphia Eagles #football #NFL #Fantasy #Fantasy Football

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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@evansilva @NCW21 In the 3 games before injury Foster faced SEA, SF and STL and combined for 487 yards from scrimmage (341 rush +146 rec).

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) June 19, 2014

#Arian Foster #Houston Texans #Texans #Fantasy #FantasyFootball #Fantasy Football #Tweet #RB #Draft #FFP #danjay84

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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BISHOP SANKEY - TITANS RB (ROOKIE)

With the 52nd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans selected the first RB off the board, Bishop Sankey. Sankey, the 5'9" 209lb third year Junior had a very impressive career with the Washington Huskies, but will that translate to the NFL, and if so, will it be this season?

The biggest fantasy draw when it comes to Sankey is his lack of competition at the running back position and what appears to be a promising offensive line. Shonn Greene might be his best competition, which says a lot about his potential playing time. Given that running backs are known to have the shortest learning curve from college to the NFL, Sankey is in line to get enough carries to be fantasy relevant. Still, I do not see myself drafting Sankey unless he falls a bit in my draft(s). Rookies tend to get hyped up a bit too much and the ADP generally poses too much risk and too little reward for me. As far as Sankey's physical abilities, he is a well rounded back who does a lot of things well, but is lacking in a couple areas that may hold him back in the NFL. The first thing that stands out to me is his a unique running style. There is almost a rhythm to his running. In my opinion, he has the fluidity of Arian Foster with a running style similar to Giovani Bernard. I believe his blocking is adequate, enough that it won't hold him back at the NFL level but he does have a habit of lunging at the feet of oncoming rushers rather than squaring up and engaging in the block. Sankey has good vision and patience as well as quick feet, especially with lateral cuts. He is capable of breaking some tackles but my problem is that I do not see him as a downhill bruiser or a finesse playmaker in the NFL, more of a complimentary back that would succeed in a timeshare situation. His receiving skills are good enough to factor into his fantasy value. Although he often makes the first guy miss, my worry is that he lacks the explosiveness and speed necessary to generate big plays in the NFL, making his fantasy value somewhat limited if he is part of a running back by committee. I am not saying he is slow, but his burst is unimpressive and he lacks that breakaway speed, the extra gear that many elite backs possess. Heavy workload in college could be a concern, but most likely not in the near future. Sankey put up some monster numbers at Washington, but he had trouble outrunning the faster defenders and he was too often caught from behind. Even so, if he takes over as the number one back and is given a healthy dose of touches, he should produce adequately and will be worthy of RB2 status. If he happens to fall a bit, he may be a solid option due to potential workload alone.

#Bishop Sankey #Sankey #Washington Huskies #Tennessee Titans #Fantasy #FantasyFootball #football #Nfl Game #FFP #FantasyFootballPlaybook #danjay84 #Titans #Rookie #ADP #Giants #Rashad Jennings #Giovani Bernard #Arian Foster

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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Videos and Fantasy

Due to some heat from Youtube/NFL, I had to remove all of my videos, but I have some up on Vimeo that I will post later. Starting to get into the swing of things and will be updating content on here shortly. Last season, I definitely whiffed on several sleepers, some due to injury but I hit on many as well. I stated that I expected "BIG THINGS" out of Alshon Jeffery and that people would be "kicking themselves for not drafting him". This season, my number one, hands down, must draft breakout player is Andre Ellington, one of the most elusive and explosive backs in the NFL. I will be posting a more in depth review of Ellington's potential this season and how finishing the year as the #1 fantasy RB isn't that far of a reach.

#video #fantasy #FantasyFootball #fantasy football #Alshon Jeffery #Andre Ellington

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fantasyfootballplaybook · 10 years

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FANTASY TWEETS

Follow me on Twitter for all updates! Will post some of the most important tweets here.

NFL running backs and post injury production. Another case for Arian Foster. @JOBOOZOSO @FBallblogger @Sky_Razzball http://t.co/ecPj8ZkHiG

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 16, 2014

Travis Kelce is an intriguing late round flyer at TE. Chance to put up some numbers over in #KC. Worth keeping tabs on at the very least.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 15, 2014

Jeremy Maclin has never put up elite numbers but he's been VERY consistent, would not be surprised if he posted his first 1,000 yd season.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 14, 2014

If you draft Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery, keep an eye on Marquess Wilson. Could save your season if the injury bug bites. #Bears

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 14, 2014

Desean Jackson is talented but does not attack the ball or play defender. As a deep threat, this makes him a liability, not just a weapon.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 13, 2014

Production isn't a question with #Dunbar but health is. Will be PPR friendly. Undersized but truly plays bigger with low center of gravity.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 12, 2014

Lance Dunbar had just 37 touches last season & produced over 200 yds. Here's nearly half of those touches. http://t.co/ZM5P2y84l8 #Cowboys

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 12, 2014

James Starks deserves a bit more love as a late round pick/handcuff. Clear #2 in a potent offense. RB2 value if Lacy misses time. #Packers

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 10, 2014

I like Keenan Allen and owned him last season but believe he's being drafted very close to his ceiling. Solid on film but doesn't "wow" me.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 10, 2014

My favorite DEEP sleeper at WR might be Chris Owusu. Upside/talent overshadowed by past injuries. Dynamic playmaker, shot at #3 role. #Bucs

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 10, 2014

Rumor was Nicks was only concerned about not getting injured/cashing in on free agency. 1 yr deal poses some concern for same reason. #Colts

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 10, 2014

Re-watched Hakeem Nicks film too. Talented but mental game is suspect. Took plays off, quit on routes, didn't go "get the ball" in traffic.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 10, 2014

Re-watched Rueben Randle film last night and I think Randle could take a HUGE step forward this season. Serious breakout candidate. #Giants

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 10, 2014

I feel like people who are talking up Knowshon Moreno and dismissing Lamar Miller didn't watch all their games last season. #BoxScoreExperts

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 9, 2014

Remember what CJ #Spiller looks like without a bum ankle? I don't play it safe in "fantasy", I swing for the fences. https://t.co/bohJg0CCoq

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 9, 2014

Kelvin Benjamin specifically mentioned working on the timing for fade routes with Cam Newton. #Panthers #PFT #Redzone

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 7, 2014

There were rumors that Mike Williams was on the bubble, "wasn't standing out" in OTAs. Probably because he was limited and not 100%. #Bills

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 7, 2014

#Broncos plan on doing "more" with Julius Thomas, but there was "only so much he could learn as a rookie". I'll take more than 65/788/12.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 6, 2014

People are really sleeping on Kelvin Benjamin. Double digit TDs not out of the question. Current ADP #118. #Panthers #Opportunity #Redzone

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 6, 2014

On tape, Jordan Matthews, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin & Marquise Lee impressed me more than Mike Evans, Odel Beckham & Brandin Cooks.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 6, 2014

Lots of Tate/West talk, but don't sleep on Dion Lewis. Not many believers out there but I like his game, could contribute quite a bit. CLE

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 4, 2014

Ben Tate could be a real steal this season given the run heavy gameplan that Pettine and the #Browns have laid out. #NeedsToStayHealthy

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 4, 2014

"Julius Thomas will be asked to expand his route tree and help compensate for the loss of Decker, especially in the red zone" -FoxSports.com

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 4, 2014

"Andre Ellington has proven to be more durable than the Cardinals thought." -Kent Somers, Arizona Republic 7/3/14. #Cardinals #Ellington

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 3, 2014

Terrance Williams (upside) & Kendall Wright (value) are appealing mid round picks. #ADP #FantasyFootball

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 3, 2014

"R. Jennings penciled in as starter, could change depending on D. Wilson" -Stephania Bell, great for injury info. not so great for fantasy.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 3, 2014

McCown, 1,337 career passes, a 59.4% completion rate, 50/45 TD/INT ratio & RAT of 75.0. Glennon 59.4%, 19/9, 83.9 as a rookie... SMH #Bucs

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 2, 2014

Starting McCown over Glennon makes absolutely no sense. A 35 yr old backup had a career yr with the best WR duo, now is Mr. Franchise? #Bucs

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 2, 2014

Re-watched all of Tim Wright's targets in '13. Still impressed. Hands like Larry Fitzgerald. 76TAR, 1DROP = 1.3% RATE (#1 for TEs w 50+ TAR)

— Dan Jay (@danjay84) July 2, 2014

If you whiff at TE, I expect Garrett Graham to have a good/consistent season as the "move TE". Also have a funny feeling a/b Marcedes Lewis.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 1, 2014

If you're targeting Kenny Stills late but miss out, Tiquan Underwood is worth a look. Dude can fly. Cam has to throw to someone. #Panthers

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 1, 2014

I strongly believe that Shady & Sproles will benefit greatly from Jordan Mathews' (downfield)blocking ability. #Eagles

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 1, 2014

Rookie WR Jordan Matthews is related to Jerry Rice and is training with Calvin Johnson & AJ Green. #Eagles #MentalNote

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 30, 2014

Even with Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE Tim Wright should see plenty of snaps this season. I'm predicting a hybrid TE/WR role. #Bucs #Sleeper

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 30, 2014

CAL product, Richard Rodgers may have the inside track to as the starting TE for the Packers. #RodgersToRodgers #RedzoneTarget #GreatHands

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 30, 2014

McFadden or MJD? I'll pass on both and grab Latavius Murray when the injuries hit. Murray has the most upside and potential. #Raiders

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 29, 2014

2014 TE #SLEEPERS: Zach Ertz, Ladarius Green, Tim Wrght. Richard Rodgers, Charles Clay #Fantasy

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 29, 2014

#Chiefs have hinted that they want to give backup RB Knile Davis more work http://t.co/AaOXPP112U #NFL #FantasyFootball

— FFToolbox.com (@fftoolbox)

June 29, 2014

I think Zac Stacy's "lead" role could be in trouble if Tre Mason can improve his pass protection. Needs to square up and get lower leverage.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 29, 2014

Rumor: Ace Sanders NOT a lock to make Jaguars. I call BS. 51 REC as rookie, 2nd on team behind Shorts (66). Showed flashes. #Jags #Sleeper

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

Don't sleep on Cecil Shorts (WR44) OR Ace Sanders (undrafted).Shorts WR2 potential. Sanders "could" become a PPR monster. #Jags #Value

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

Pat Mayo thinks Moreno will still be MIA starter and to stay away from Lamar Miller. ADP is everything Pat. Miller RB43 = Nice Upside/Value

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

From Andre Williams' film, I think he'll struggle in NFL, lacks outside effectiveness, medicore college competition. Short yardage N/S back.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

I believe CJ Spiller will be the CLEAR #1 in BUF. Misconception that it's a RBBC. 2013 distribution irrelevant due to CJ's high ankle sprain

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

IMO David Wilson is the only threat to Rashad Jennings. Andre Williams similar style but overall talent level not close to Jennings. #Giants

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

NICK FOLES: 8.0% of his passes came on scrambles outside the pocket, above the league average of 5.6%. -@PFF (Steve Palazzolo) #Eagles

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 27, 2014

Lance #Dunbar needs to stay healthy this season. All the talent in the world and can't get on the field. Joseph Randle is NOT on his level.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

I'm not on the Emmanuel Sanders hype train, never was. 4th receiving option at best? Montee might see more targets than him. #Broncos

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

I still see potential PPR value in Jacquizz Rodgers.105 REC/121 TAR(86.8%) '12-'13. SJ not much left in tank, Not sold on DFreeman. #Falcons

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

I realize Quizz's AVG has been awful, 3.4 yards per carry in 2013 but SJ's was 3.5 in '13. Sometimes small sample stats are misleading.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

Name a DEEP sleeper who is currently a FREE AGENT. I'll take Danario Alexander & Larod Stepens-Howling. Your turn. #GandhiThinksThatTooDeep

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

Name a DEEP sleeper who is currently a FREE AGENT. I'll take Danario Alexander & Larod Stepens-Howling. Your turn. #GandhiThinksThatTooDeep

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

One FF podcast said "Foles only threw for two 300yd games last season". Yeah, 428, 406, 298 & 296. #Foles exceeded 25 pass attempts 7 times.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

Just realized that Frank Gore is 33 yards away from the 10k yard rushing mark. Impressive but I just have to avoid him this season. #30plus

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

Le'Veon Bell/Montee Ball, "1st year borderline 1st rounders". ADP at/near ceiling "without track record", but I feel much better about Ball.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 26, 2014

What if I told you that Arian Foster is a safer 1st RD pick than Jamaal Charles or that Riley Cooper is a safer pick than Marques Colston?

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 25, 2014

What if I told you that Arian Foster is a safer 1st RD pick than Jamaal Charles or that Riley Cooper is a safer pick than Marques Colston?

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 25, 2014

#Saints RB Khiry Robinson "doubled his offseason workouts". & has studied playbook extensively. Payton impressed. -Gary Estwick, Biloxi Sun

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 25, 2014

Given the production/opportunity of Kenny Stills in '13, I wasn't "wowed" when I re-watched his film. B. Cooks wows me despite size. #Saints

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 25, 2014

@maxyavel #Khiry Robinson is behind Thomas/Ingram (Cadet) on every depth chart but has the talent to be #1. His 40 time does NOT match film.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 25, 2014

#Stafford is currently being drafted as QB4 and #Luck at QB5, wayyyy tooo high for both! #fantasyfootball #GoodThingsComeToThoseWhoWait

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 24, 2014

If I own a Saints RB this season, it's going to be Khiry Robinson, hands down. Enough upside/opportunity to steal the show. #Saints

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 21, 2014

@ThePME Arians built offense around Ellington who added 10+ lbs in offseason. 5 '9 1/2 & 210lbs now. Will split out as WR often. PPR MONSTER

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 21, 2014

Don't avoid Arian Foster b/c he was injured last season, played all 16 in '10 & '12. He's healthy now, fresh and ready to rebound big time.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 20, 2014

Word is that #Ellington upped his strength and conditioning in the off season and hasn't sacrificed any speed/agility from the 10lbs gained.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 19, 2014

@evansilva @NCW21 In the 3 games before injury Foster faced SEA, SF and STL and combined for 487 yards from scrimmage (341 rush +146 rec).

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 19, 2014

For the record, I'm SELLING Josh McCown & BUYING Mike Glennon, don't let physique deter you, has the tools + more upside than McCown. #Bucs

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 18, 2014

ZERO faith in Ronnie Hillman. Speedy but struggles to make guys miss/break tackles in the NFL. I like Ball/CJ Anderson to shoulder the load.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 17, 2014

Knowshon Moreno's shortcomings were masked by a potent Manning led passing game. In 2013, he had 8 games of 3.3 AVG or less. (1 of 2)

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

June 17, 2014

2013 & OLDER

Josh Gordon is a MUST add/acquire. Box scores are nice but he JUMPS off the screen as far as the eye test. Elite talent in midseason form.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

September 23, 2013

@nickmflee22 find someone else to drop. jeffery = stud in the making and is really going to put up some nice numbers, but i do like dunbar.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 28, 2013

#giovanibernard is my #1 rookie fantasy RB this season, even if bell wasn't out. will surpass BJGE early and never look back. #bengals

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 22, 2013

adding #mikejames to my watch list, plenty of upside if doug martin misses any playing time this season. no faith in hillis/leonard

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 20, 2013

@jim_heath @RantSports247 fantasy monster? yes. value pick? no. not a value pick when he's going WR2 WR3. A value pick would be Josh Gordon.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 20, 2013

still not buying into #ronniehillman. so far looks a lot like last season, inability to run physical between tackles. #CJanderson #broncos

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 13, 2013

forgot to mention #christinemichael with the other RBs, ran hard, was elusive, showed some speed. #nfl #seahawks #fantasyfootball

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 12, 2013

#CJanderson was the best looking broncos RB this week. would love to see him get some touches with 1s and 2s. #broncos #nfl #potential

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

August 12, 2013

@rotoworld i still don't believe it. no physicality to his game, not a 3 down back, can't run between tackles, can't block, one trick pony

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 31, 2013

@NFoles8 diehard bills fan but i follow your game closely, every NFL snap pre/reg season to date. i 100% believe you will be an elite QB.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 19, 2013

michael turner has definitely lost a step... which is four less than chris johnson has lost. #nfl #chrisjohnson #michaelturner #mnf

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

September 18, 2012

Knile Davis with an impressive TD run. This guy is going to be one hell of a player. #Chiefs

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

December 15, 2013

@NFoles8 diehard bills fan but i follow your game closely, every NFL snap pre/reg season to date. i 100% believe you will be an elite QB.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

July 19, 2013

@DeseanJackson10 with Foles, I've never seen a rookie QB with so much poise, touch, accuracy, arm strength and ability to spread the ball.

— Dan Jay (@danjay84)

September 8, 2012

#Twitter #Tweet #Tweets #Fantasy #Football #FantasyFootball #FFP #@danjay84

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