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tdp-fandom · 2 years

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Battle Ships Round 2 Results

Click here for pie charts.

81 votes this time, which is fewer than before but I'm still happy you all participated <3 A lot of twitter polls are happening at the same time this weekend, so maybe that had some influence :D

"What is up with that messy table at the top?" you might ask. Well, I made it less messy manually!

That plus a discussion of results will be under cut

Favorite Ships Results

Here are ship results as a column table

and a pie chart

Click here for larger files

As expected, most participants (28 people or 34.1%) were Ryllum shippers with Viravos in the second place (12 people or 14.6%) and Ruthari in the third (9 people or 11%). What really surprised me was that only three people who chose Janaya as their favorite ship were present, since Janaya is a quite popular ship.

The joke ship mentioned is "Claudia/professional help". "Blank" are all the people who didn't write anything and "no preference" is everyone who were unable or didn't care to choose.

Discussion

Part 1: Favorite ships and the margin of error

I didn't ask for the favorite ship just for the fun of it (although, this kind of statistics is always fun!). I also wanted to check whether there's a relationship between someone's favorite ship and their vote.

Unfortunately, 81 votes is not nearly enough for statistically significant results (the margin of error is almost 11%), I still managed to make this nice little table on google spreadsheets.

Here's a fragment because the full thing is too wide to fit here so please click the link above. I will discuss each section in greater detail in the second part of the Discussion section.

Note that I did not include favorite ships chosen by only one person in order to preserve the anonymity of those people. The results of two or more people are a lot harder to point back to specific individuals.

On the left there are the ships chosen as favorites and the colored columns show their voting patterns. As I mentioned before, the margin of error is 11% (which means that the accurate representation of each result would fluctuate between -11% and +11% from the result we got in this poll).

However, that was the margin of error for the entire sample of 81 people. If we take each favorite ship individually, the margin become significantly greater:

Rayllum - 28 people - 19%

Viravos - 12 people - 28%

Ruthari - 9 people - 33%

Janaya - 3 people - 57%

All the ships with 2 votes - 69%

All the ships with 1 vote - 98%

Honestly, that only makes Rayllum and Viravos results at least somewhat significant (and Ruthari for one question), and even that only applies for certain cases.

See tab number 2 (Adjusted for error) in my google spreadsheet. I marked the meaningful results in bold frame. Tab 3 discusses an example in detail.

With all that said, the point of this whole tournament is for the fandom to have fun so while I didn't get the statistics I was hoping for, I can still use the result in my discussion c:

Part 2: The results of the votes

This round was a lot less predictable than the first. Here are Stars' and my predictions - look how few we got right! (green - correct prediction, red - incorrect prediction. Btw, you can join us here c:)

Let's go through each category, because they're all quite interesting this time.

NOTE: When I say "[SHIP NAME] shippers" or "[SHIP NAME] fans", I refer to the people who took part in this specific round and chose [SHIP NAME] as their favorite ship.

I did not see it coming! I was sure Laidrin was going to win based on the amount of moonfam content I've seen on tumblr and twitter. However, while two thirds of Ruthari shippers and almost a third of Rayllum shippers voted for Laidrin, it seems the majority of participants prefer Harrai out of the two:

Possible reason? We have seen more of Harrow and Sarai (albeit mostly through flashbacks) than Lain and Tiadrin. Rayllum shippers most likely voted based on which character of the ship they prefer, Viravos shippers, just like other Viren shippers, generally like Harrow, and Ruthari shippers are more likely to prefer their faves' best friends.

Note that even with the error of 11%, Harrai still wins.

Clauderry continues to obliterated their opponents even as a ship that only appeared in one episode so far. The only shippers that consistently voted against Clauderry are Claaravos (Clauderry's rival ship) and Virayla (the shippers of which, in my personal anecdotal experience also ship Claaravos). Although what's interesting is that there were a couple of Rayllum and Viravos shippers who voted for both Clauderry and Claaravos!

Another interesting thing is that Rayllum and Viravos shippers seem to prefer Clauderry over Corpeli.

The reason? I guess it's the fact that Claudia is one of the main characters and it's a canon ship. It's possible many fans simply like their dynamic (although it's not totally clear yet) or like Terry as a character. Corpeli, while mostly not hated by people, remains a rather niche ship when it comes to active shipping.

Everyone predicted this outcome but what a beautiful battle it was! With only 2 people voting for neither and 1 person skipping the question entirely (a record low so far), this is a very significant confrontation between two large ships with active fanbases. People either love these two or hate them, with very few being utterly indifferent, and while Viravos is definitely hated by more than Rayllum (as two main antagonists vs two main protagonists), there is still overlap in these two parts of the fandom.

While I worked on my Shipping Poll results, I noticed that quite a few people who chose Rayllum as their favorite ship also shipped Viravos and vice versa. I sadly never finished analyzing the data from this perspective (I lost where I stopped and now would have to redo the whole thing from scratch) but I can still show you the unfinished results:

At least 50 people who chose Rayllum as their favorite ship also ship Viravos. At least 26 people who chose Viravos as their favorite ship also ship Rayllum. The real number are higher, although these are results from 2020.

Ruthari and Janaya shippers voting for Rayllum makes sense as the big 3 often like each other (you can also see that in the image above). Claaravos voted against Viravos as their rival ship (as we'll see Viravos shipper do later). And, as usual for Viren ships, Virayla and Virrow voted for Viravos. Viren ships generally like other Viren ships. Probably the only "rival ship" group that barely has any infighting. Possibly because none of them are currently canon.

Reason? Rayllum is not only the main canon ship, it also has the biggest fanbase. Most TDP viewers connected to Rayllum in different ways. Some like their dynamic as is, others like their potential. There are also many people who don't actively ship it but simply find it cute.

Another very surprising result! An iconic battle as well, especially since there's a huge overlap between the shippers. This round also came out the same day TDPO published the Janaya short story, which is why this result baffles me even more. Maybe Janaya shippers are simply not interested in this tournament?

Here are excerpts from that same unfinished data analysis:

Rayllum, Viravos, Clauderry and Virayla seem pretty balanced between the two. Gremaya voted against their rival ship. And Ruthari shippers only outnumber Janaya by 6 people. What's interesting is that one Janaya shipper refused to vote against their brother ship! I think this is very sweet.

The reason: Honestly? Statistical error. It's possible my tournament didn't attract an even number of Janaya and Ruthari shippers. With an 11% error, Ruthari could've had 43% and Janaya - 45%. There's also a possibility that the slash vs femslash bias plays a role (slash is generally more popular than femslash) or that people prefer Ruthari's dynamic over Janaya's but I don't have anything to back this up.

A predictable result since we've never even seen Avibeia interact onscreen.

Most shippers are either ambivalent about the two or prefer Virrow.

Reason? Virrow has lots of interactions which are even more detailed in the books. Avibeia only have a kid and a end credits picture.

Most shippers show a preference towards Anneha with the exception of Clauderry and Gremaya.

Reason? Not only is Anneha a canon ship, I've never seen anyone ship the Queens with anyone else. Ezranya, on the other hand, strongly competes with Ezris (Ezran x Ellis). There are also people who don't like the idea of shipping characters who aren't even teens yet.

Our first tie! It's hard to say if it's because people like them both or don't care either way. The yellow part might suggest the latter?

Rayllum and Janaya don't seem to care. It's especially evident with Rayllum votes. Viren ships and Clauderry lean towards Grazi while Ruthari, Claaravos and Gremaya - towards Sabos. Gremaya most likely vote against a rival ship.

The reason? I don't really have one.

This result was somewhat surprising, since Claaravos and Gremaya already faced each other in the semifinal of Rarepair Rumble and their results were very close!

Note that the number of people who didn't vote for either (which is 4 people or 6% of the voters). This is a good example how various factors might influence a completely different outcome even for the same situation.

Rayllum clearly prefer Gremaya (even 1 Janaya shipper voted for Gremaya). Viravos seem to have voted mostly against Claaravos (although it's possible some actually ship Gremaya too), Ruthari, Clauderry and Virrow are ambivalent and Virayla prefers Claaravos.

The reason? While both are hated, most Gremaya haters seem to have either calmed down or blocked me and Claaravos is generally disliked by more people.

Thank you for reading this giant post!

This took forever to assemble T-T hope you find this helpful. Please comment or DM me if you have any questions, thoughts or criticisms! Absolutely feel free to tell me if you feel I could be doing something differently. This will help me improve in future events!

#the dragon prince #tdp battle ships #tdp fandom events

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