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thatswhatsushesaid · 3 months

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I mean this politely but why do you like Su She? Maybe it’s because I’ve only read the books/seen the donghua but he seems like such a non-character. Does he play more of a role in the live action adaptation or something?

hey, no worries at all! my biggest su she confession is that when i first read the book and watched the show, i straight up forgot who he was until his death in the guanyin temple confrontation. in cql, his death really is kind of a nothingburger moment for me; it happens very suddenly, he doesn't have much agency in how it all unfolds, and aside from jgy's genuinely crushed expression when he dies (the way he says "minshan!" in that moment while reaching out to him still hurts 🥺), it isn't a character death that held my attention that much.

it wasn't until i read the novel and reached his death scene there that i had a "whoa, this is su she? su 'i don't have control enough over my power to summon my sword from the bottom of a lake or avoid shooting wei wuxian in the arm' minshan?"

As expected, gurgles came from within Nie MingJue’s throat. His body turned away from the empty coffin as well. At once, he realized whom the person lying on Su She’s back was. Wei WuXian’s whistles could no longer stop him either. Like a gust of wind, Nie MingJue rushed over, his palm flying towards Jin GuangYao’s head.

Su She dodged to the side with force. With the tip of his foot he picked up the sword that had fallen to the ground and conjured up all of his spiritual energy in one thrust at Nie MingJue’s heart. Perhaps because of the dire situation, the attack was abnormally swift and ruthless. Brimming with spiritual energy, the blade glowed brightly, enveloped by swirling radiance. It was so much better than all of the previous seemingly-elegant attacks that even Wei WuXian wanted to praise its excellence. Nie MingJue was forced a step back by the explosion of an attack as well. As the light dimmed somewhat, Nie MingJue went forth again, clawing at Jin GuangYao unstoppably. Su She threw Jin GuangYao at Lan XiChen with his left hand, while with his right he sliced at Nie MingJue’s throat.

Nie MingJue’s entire body was as impenetrable as fine steel, but not the thread that stitched his neck together!

...

If the neck attack succeeded, even if it wouldn’t defeat Nie MingJue entirely, it’d still be able to save them some time. However, the sword had been infused with so much spiritual energy, due to Su She’s sudden explosion, that it could no longer withstand it. Halfway through the lunge, it broke into pieces with a crack. On the other hand, Nie MingJue’s punch landed right in the center of Su She’s chest. Su She’s splendor left as quickly as it came. He couldn’t even spit out a mouthful of blood or say a few last words, no matter with dignity or cruelty, before the life in his eyes went out.

Collapsed beside Lan XiChen, Jin GuangYao saw this scene as well. Whether because the bleeding and the pain intensified at his arm and stomach or from some other reason, the glisten of tears could be seen in his eyes.

- EXR translation pgs 1001-1002

so for me, it was reading his death sequence and realizing just how dramatically he had changed from that fumbling, mediocre, and quite frankly cowardly cultivator we meet in the first half of the novel--the guy who can't summon his sword from the bottom of a lake, who wants to sacrifice mianmian to save his own skin, who can't even fire an arrow straight--to this capable, powerful cultivator who is throwing himself in harm's way without hesitation to protect jgy, that made me want to take a second look at him. like... he's not charismatic, he's deeply resentful and bitter, the chip on his shoulder is following him straight to his grave. but he dies bravely and incandescently because he thought jgy was someone worth dying for, and that just hit me right in the gut, honestly.

anyway after that i went a little nuts revisiting almost every scene he's in in both the book and in cql, and i've blogged about my thoughts already!! if you feel like trawling through my "emotional support henchman" tag, that's where you'll find some of my other unhinged sms gushing. this is just the non-tl;dr version of why i like him, so i hope this answers your question 👍

#asks answered #su she #su minshan #emotional support henchman #mdzs meta

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occasionaltouhou · 3 months

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sorry about my last ask i promise to grow and change as a person

anyway what do you think about misumaru? personally... idk maybe it's unfortunate but she doesn't look like a particularly interesting character

people joke and talk about how 'she's a milf' or whatever and sure, but somehow with her it gives her a boring vibe. it feels like, contrary to all other touhou characters, she isn't just vibing

i personally don't really like her design, tenshi did the rainbow thing better and her pose is kinda silly

what drives me up the wall is that she's a boring character... who crafted Reimu's yin-yang orbs! when was the last time we got actual, bona fide Reimu lore before that!? there could be all sorts of connections to the Hakurei god... but she's kind of a nothingburger. it's a shame, really. maybe you disagree

thank you. life is all about these little learning experiences

anyway. misumaru, huh... she's definitely a character who hasn't gotten her time to shine. misumaru is actually kind of a Big Deal in a lot of ways, first and foremost that - based on her name, at least - she's tamanooya-no-mikoto. which means she's an amatsukami who's closely tied to both the provenance of a clan that technically predates modern japan itself, and also to the myth of amaterasu in her cave - which, of course, also theoretically ties her directly to the lunarians. and just to top it all off, tamanooya-no-mikoto is also the creator of the yasakani no magatama, which is, y'know, about as big of a deal as it gets in japanese mythology

so just from which kami she is, she's already got a lot going on. and she is, of course, the creator of the yin-yang orbs - why wouldn't you hire a master craftsman to create the goshintai for the kami used as a lynchpin of gensokyo?

there's a few more interesting facets to her, one of which is the very fact that she hasn't shown up before or since unconnected marketeers - she is specifically protecting her interests in the mountain. she's firm, competent, she provides guidance and aid, and she is about as selfish as we've seen of any kami. the only reason she showed up is because people were taking rocks she claimed as hers!

so she's an amatsukami, but not a lunarian. it's worth noting also that there aren't many shrines to tamanooya-no-mikoto; she's only really a step or two above hina in terms of being a so-called "feral kami". she doesn't really seem to have any allegiance to gensokyo, or to the hakurei shrine (or else, y'know, she'd probably have shown up at any other time). she's just kind of a weird artisan. and she makes magatama and balls. and she throws them at people for fun. what's better than this

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fag4dykestobin · 9 months

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please share the jonathan s1 death opinions i need to know 🙏🙏🙏

OF COURSE i am so happy to do so. it kind of goes hand in hand with my opinion that the stranger things cast is way too big, even for an ensemble cast. and the writers are so scared to kill off anyone in that cast, which is such a bummer! and so weird! they obviously take a lot of inspiration from stephen king, who is known for his ensemble casts, but the difference between the stranger things writers and king is that king actually kills his characters off, which makes the big casts work. i'm still so disappointed that hopper didn't actually die in s3 </3 anyway, i've gotten off track. jonathan!

jonathan is a character that i feel like the writers really struggle with. they want him to be an attentive older brother and a love interest for nancy, and they kind of half ass both, so he ends up being a shitty boyfriend and a shitty brother. which would be a fine thing for a character to be, obviously, but there's no real... conflict? that comes from it? like, yeah, nancy and jonathan have relationship troubles in s4, but its so nothingburger. he's just kind of a guy that needs to be involved in the plot because of his brother and his girlfriend. which makes him annoying for me to watch LOL

i DID like him in s1. he was serving a purpose! he was a rich character! a guilty, overworked teenager, who may have lost his brother forever because he wasn't there for him. very sympathetic. and at the same time, he does something pretty messed up by taking those pictures of nancy. but after s1 he's just kind of... a love interest for nancy. i feel like stancy's relationship could have blown up without jonathan, honestly, i kind of wish it did. like, imagine if nancy had a whole self destructive spiral on her own. that would have been so cool to watch.

anyway, i would have changed it so that jonathan gets killed by the demogorgon when he + nancy + steve are setting a trap for it at the byers' house. a narrative consequence for going off on your own, for leaving the kids behind! and imagine joyce, coming back from saving one of her boys to find the other one dead. its devastating, obviously, but really fun character flavoring. start her as a character who is shaped by grief from season 1. this affect on nancy and steve would also be fun. like, jonathan would have died right in front of them. this is another death on their hands, made so much more real by the fact that they saw it happen.

i have other thoughts, but i'm having trouble... waves my hand around. articulating them. anyway yeah. i just wish he had died in s1 ❤️

#my thoughts are alwasy so jumbled but 👍 i hope i got this across okay. yoi guys understand me. my vision #ask #qomrades #stranger things #jonathan byers

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drzone · 2 months

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so i dont typically blog my doctor who thoughts since im not terribly interested in engaging with the fandom (at least for now) but am i crazy or was the angels take manhattan kind of Sucks. Like it was so nothingburger to me and i feel like.. They "killed" rory and amy so much previously that turned out to be fakeouts that i didnt even take it seriously. The whole time i was thinking theyre gonna come back from this, obviously, all this is really for naught. but! gone indeed! and i will miss them of course but to be honest... They started writing rory and amy pretty badly towards the end there. Starting with having them divorce and going forwards it just got worse and worse. ANYWAYS. Just had to say because i love them so much and i feel they got done so dirty. Onwards!

#scrolls #dw

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vvatchword · 6 months

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I'm tired of writing this already because my Dr. Lamb is either the most boring, unemotive, or noble person imaginable. This is the whole reason I have been avoiding her section. The reason: Dr. Lamb is, and has always been, a huge nothingburger. In-game, she's just That Way. She doesn't BECOME That Way, she just is, and it's arguable she has always been so. There's even an audio diary that suggests she has had designs on Rapture since time immemorial (lol wat).

This is because BioShock 2 is a fucked-up attempt at a Christian gnostic allegory and Dr. Sofia Lamb is a stand-in for the Aeon Sophia. It's awful for a lot of reasons that I'll get into someday--not the least reason for which is that THE LITERAL AEON SOPHIA IS IN THE FUCKING GAME. The allegory cannot fucking work if you just stick the actual fucking Aeon Sophia alongside your allegorical symbol for the Aeon Sophia. Then it's not an allegory, is it? That said, 2K Marin probably made this game without sleeping or regular human contact so they can be forgiven for a lot.

Anyway, I decided to start her as an Objectivist and a human being, if an extremely autistic and traumatized one, and move her left.

What makes a person decide to be an Objectivist and isolate oneself on the bottom of the ocean is equally present in certain individuals and movements on the left: it's a deep insecurity and a sense of powerlessness because one can't control what other people do. So if you can't control other people, you CAN try to minimize their impact on you and just straight-up leave. It's the completely futile effort to control as many environmental factors as possible to make the least surprising world possible.

Where this impulse heads into toxic territory is when these kinds of people get really frustrated and just try to apply force. "ALL Y'ALL BETTER JOIN THE CLUB OR I'M GETTING THE BAT"

So... where do I exhibit this toxic behavior in Lamb? And why doesn't it feel natural to me? I've actually given her more emotive states than she has in-game. She's more reserved, to be sure, but she still fucking feels things and is motivated by those feelings, even if she lies to herself about it. Moreover, one cannot be reserved 100% of the time. One will and can snap, and sometimes those kinds of people snap in nasty ways because they're keeping most of their stress inside and hidden.

I suppose I should make her a little more toxic from the beginning. I've actually made her extremely sensible. I try to give most of my characters laudable traits, even if they're pure fuckers--issues they're right about or ways they're competent and skilled. I may have made her TOO competent and sensible. She may be too boring for fiction, idk. There's a reason nobody in fandom likes to write about her. We all know somebody just like her irl and we try to escape them as quickly as possible; we don't want to actually write about their judgy holier-than-thou asses for any length of time.

I'm very frustrated about this and I'm not sure how to fix it. It feels like a systemic issue, like a flaw or behavior that should be present from the beginning. I should probably try and make her more controlling from the beginning, but that'll take some rewriting and editing... guhhhhhh. Not during NaNo.

I might brainstorm some weird shit that I could make her do to fuck up the story a bit and see what seems natural and sticks.

I mean, if you have an idea, or have read a story with Lamb in it that you think is particularly good, hit me up ok

#bioshock #bioshock 2 #sofia lamb #fanfiction #writing #vvatchword

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dimitrscu · 9 months

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No worries.

Good points. I agree that she wouldn't have posed for the painting. You're not too harsh about him. He's someone who displays her prosthetics on the wall, after all.

I could be giving him more credit than he's worth, but I held the view that despite his obsession, there is a part of him who genuinely finds strength in Malenia (and maybe that gave her a reason to utilise his support). Which is why I found it all so interesting that he worships the rot at the same time. And I wondered what that could possibly mean for Malenia's thoughts about him.

But I could very well be wrong on all of that. And maybe he's just a nothingburger like you said. Not someone who has aided Malenia in any significant way. Not someone who struggled even the slightest with his own beliefs and the beliefs of the one he's in awe of. Just someone obsessed with a person he's never met.

Appreciate your patience. Thank you.

Oh yeah I get what you mean, that’s why I thought I was perhaps being a little too harsh on him. I know he’s a weirdo, but I do also think he genuinely finds strength in Malenia too. She’s someone he can relate to even. If she did in fact met him in person at some point then I imagine that could have been what fuelled his obsession with her. One of his items does read that he was a private worshipper of the rot who eventually found his own personal goddess. Perhaps that was what made him become obsessed and start decorating his home the way he does. Imagine if the place looked like that before she turns up with her army. I know she’s blind, but the thought of someone like Finlay looking around and thinking what the fuck did we just walk into is kind of funny. Poor Malenia can’t see so she’s just kind of oblivious that this guy has a shrine to her and Finlay’s wondering whether she should say something or just ignore it as they’ll be leaving soon anyway. I think I could be more on board with this guy if only he weren’t portrayed as such a creep. I get the appeal with her and like I said I understand why he would admire her. It’s just as per the usual, a guy can’t follow/worship a queen or goddess without it turning into some sort of obsession where he ultimately wants to sleep with her. As I mentioned in another message, it’s a bit like Daenerys from Game of Thrones. In the end most of the men who supported her wanted to bed her. They all fell in love with her and it made me wonder how many of them actually believed in her and supported her because they wanted her to be queen, and how much of it was just them pining after her. Tyrion was as the worst in the end.

“You love her. I love her too. Perhaps not as successfully as you.” He says to a guy who has slept with her. Gross.

And Tyrion was supposed to be her main advisor too. Sorry this turned into a rant about Game of Thrones. That show still pisses me off to this day. Thanks for your message, anon. Again, sorry for taking so long to reply 😅

#anonymous #answered

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baltears · 2 years

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anyway yeah i didn't post about the ep when i watched it but umm a little boring of them to take this weird fun funky premise and weird fun funky characters and just make it end with Everybody Goes To Robichaux Ex Machina. like 1) why can't we end up with coby doing something more interesting than being the world's weakest witch 😑 or perhaps. getting herself out of her own situation 2) the other two victims of horrifying kidnapping and abuse are punished by the narrative for not going back for the kid but the kid isn't punished for betraying a woman who was only ever kind to him and directly contributing to the unnecessary and brutal deaths of several people? like im not saying he shouldve been he is an abused and neglected child after all but theres a disconnect there for me. why is it okay when he responds poorly to trauma but suddenly not okay when other characters do 3) i did also find the spalding reveal very lame (i mean... he was a kinda fun mostly nothingburger character but this almost makes him more boring because it explains nothing about him other than the fact that he's a fucked up weirdo with a doll obsession. like did having a loving and kind mother honestly do nothing for him.) as was the completely unnecessary shoehorning in of myrtle. like i wouldnt have minded seeing her but "i pLaN tO rUn tHiS pLacE sOmEdAy" girl stopppp what is this a bad biopic 😭 4) this is just the first point again but why does Every single fucking witch have to be involved with robichaux or end up going there. we just already Know so much about it! Like listen there are obviously other covens of witches (marie???) who aren't related to them but somehow we never get stories about them or about witches who just fucked off to live by themselves like misty before she joined the school

#anyway lol. i did like it but when it got to the ending i was like. okay but come on though 😑 hdjghdktjdkt #it was so interesting and fun and ended up with such a cop out denouement that was LITERALLY at the last second #ahstories #ahstories spoilers

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incarnateirony · 3 years

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I know you said Dean was going to die and that you hoped they would handle it better. Or rather, that he was just going to heaven? I'm bad with words, sorry. But how would you have liked them to handle it? Because, if it just comes down to manner of death, I don't think most of the fans that are complaining that Dean died - not realizing it was part of a religious story - would have been pissed no matter what and screamed "bury your gays". I might be missing the point on all this, sorry.

I’d say philosophical more than religious, religions tend to be more dogmatic, even if there’s a spiritual element to it.

Minor tweak to that verbage aside, honestly, if they hadn’t gored everything--the 15.18 Appendix A filmed and already VFXed unsnapping people for example--we’d have an entirely different result.

You see, if everyone was unsnapped like that, then Eileen also being highlighted in 18 would also be on the mind. (not that really I think the GA has THAT much detached braincage from it and from what I saw even scrolling my republican-heavy facebook most of THEM were even going “the fuck was that”. And I mean, non-shippers and shit)

So let’s say, for example, their [Adventures] took them to heaven another way. Perhaps for example the heaven revolution sequence went differently, even if Castiel’s Uterus(TM) remained a plot point, for lack of a better word. For whatever reason, their battles--maybe in 19--take them to heaven.

This WOULD be particularly hard to film for covid with a fuckton of people packed in tight halls. Rather than a conveniently snapped-empty universe, for example.

But let’s just use this as a pitch on “how to do it better”. Nobody would think of it as “Sam and Dean dying” if they heroically barged into heaven or some shit, right? Like that’s not suicidal, it’s just the Winchesters doing what they do, casually running through planes and stuff.

But then, in no particular order, God Is Defeated, and Heaven Is Liberated, and everybody’s there with each other--those reunions the crew talked about, for example.

The thing is MOST SPN CHARACTERS have their emotional ties more to Dean. It’s just a fact. That’s actually part of why despite being the technical lead, Sam’s story drifted back, because in reaction to fandom noise he had less options to diversify his story until they got bold with choices like Rowena and Eileen as various interpersonal relationships. Rowena in particular was the widest potential--a new Ruby, if you will. But cooler than Ruby. Ruby’s removal caused a story contraction that left a rift there for years while Dean still had Cas diversifying his stuff.

Sam? Didn’t have that kind of relationship with Mary, he said that. Sam? He wasn’t the one close to Ash or Jo or any of that. These were all Dean ties, even Cas-aside.

So Cas, like Rowena, gets glued to heaven (lol, “cas helped”) and even if Jack could bring EVERYONE ELSE BACK, not that one. And besides, why go back then? They were fine.

Why would Sam go back?

“No man, it’s okay. Don’t worry about it. Mom and Cas are here, we just gotta build something new. We’ll be here when you’re ready. But you’ve got Eileen waiting for you. Go get her tiger.”

and honestly, “See you on the other side, brother.”

Would that be ~suicidal~ or ~fatalistic~ on Dean’s part, or more just the willingness to move into a new phase of life, knowing Sam would come around anyway? Let Sam build up that life and those contacts to also end up bringing into the extended heavens one day. Eventually Sam could pull up to the heaven roadhouse and we could get that 15.04 shot from Becky’s mantle.

But instead it just maintained that hilarious spaced out nothingburgerness.

This is, of course, a rough pitch, not “this is exactly what they were going to do” as much as “in the wheelhouse of what was being aimed for.”

Instead we got Dean randomly dying on a rusty dickbar.

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etraytin · 4 years

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Quarantine, Day 215

October 12 Today was a day for cooking and cleaning, so that was at least a change from the last couple of days, plus my parents got to town, very fun! First thing this morning I went down to the big food bank and offloaded all of the stuff that was still in my van, including a surprise ninth case of Takis that I hadn't even noticed before. They did accept it, though I don't know what exactly they plan to do with it. Maybe if they can't give it away they'll just put it in the breakroom or something. But now I have my van back, full of lots of room for future unwise decisions! Yay! Last night I stayed up super late because I was too tired to clean but too keyed up to go to bed. I mean I did clean, I cleaned the kitchen pretty well at least and that was the big job for the night. But then I decided that the broken recliner really, truly, absolutely needed to go, but it was too big, so I got out a scissors and used some elbow grease to rip the arms right off that sucker. Not as impressive as it sounds, since "semi-detached arms" was the biggest single symptom of brokenness already, but it did make me feel strong! The back of the chair came off without needing to be destroyed, which was less fun but much easier. Tonight my husband carried down the smaller pieces himself, and then he and I worked on getting the still-extremely-heavy center mass portion down the stairs and into the truck. I wound up sort of scooting down on my butt and hanging onto the back bar of the chair while he guided from the front, my mind filled with visions of the thing sledding down the stairs and running him over flat. But we got it done, so now we just need to take it out to the dump and rid ourselves of it forever. Hopefully the truck will still start when we turn it on. My folks decided to go with an AirBnB about 20 minutes away from us for this trip, and it is super gorgeous. It's at least the size of our apartment with two bedrooms, a large living room/kitchen, and a center room devoted to a pool table. The kiddo is very excited about the pool table. We went down there and took them supper this evening because I had to go to election official training this evening and they didn't want to have to drive themselves back in the dark their first night here. Only trouble was, their place doesn't really have a kitchen, just a sink, microwave and fridge. No problem, I broke out the crockpot and the emergency second crockpot I got at an auction and spent much of the afternoon cooking. I made butternut squash soup, a perennial favorite I already talked about, and pulled pork. I was in a hurry because I got started late, so I splurged on a boneless pork loin, cut it into fist-size chunks or a little smaller, then seasoned them with rub and seared them with butter in a skillet till the outsides were brown and had little crunchy bits on them. Then I piled them into the crockpot and deglazed the pan with a sweet onion and a couple tablespoons of jarred minced garlic. Once those were soft and translucent, I added four cups of water to the skillet, stirred it around, and then poured the resultant broth into the crockpot as well. A little bit of liquid smoke, four hours on high, and voila! On a sesame roll with a little barbecue sauce, it was excellent. I showed the kiddo how to use a spiral pineapple cutter to turn a fresh pineapple into a hollow tube, and that made a pretty good dinner. It's so good to see my folks again! I haven't lived in the same state as them for well over a decade now, but I still miss them a lot and we try to visit as often as we can. My sister lives much closer to me than to the old homestead and we have tried convincing them to move closer to us, but their house is so full of so many things, I doubt it will ever happen. Plus they like where they are and have many friends there, which at least makes me feel less guilty about being so far away. We only got to spend a couple of hours with them tonight, but tomorrow I'm springing the kiddo from virtual learning so we can hang out with them all day. It'll be fun! This evening was election official training, this time at the auditorium at the middle school to provide lots of social distancing room. I have been to training several times before, but this is the first time I've gone to the advanced training. For this election I've been tapped as the procedural specialist for my precinct, which means I am responsible for reading the manual better than anybody else so that when weird stuff happens, I know what to do. This is especially important in regards to provisional and absentee ballots, which are usually not a big deal but may well be a HUGE deal in this year's election. Apparently nearly a third of the active voters in our county have already voted this year, with three weeks of early voting still left, so we will likely not have the huge surge in election day voters that a presidential election usually brings. But there are 4000 absentee ballots that have been sent out and not returned yet, and each of those is a potential hiccup on the big day. Even back in June during the absolute nothingburger of a Republican primary that we had, we got a couple of people trying to bring in their absentee ballots, or vote despite getting one and not bringing it with them. Virginia has taken the sensible step of making every voting precinct also a drop-off point for absentee ballots on election day, so people will be able to hand-deliver with no problems. But a lot of people don't understand that once they get their absentee ballot, that's it, that's their ballot and they can't have another one unless they give back the one they've got. If they really want to vote in person, they can, but they have to bring in their absentee ballot and spoil it (fill in all the circles) and then give it to us in exchange for an in-person ballot. So if somebody with an absentee ballot comes in to vote without their ballot, they will have to vote provisionally, and I will be in charge of making that happen. I'll also be working the pollbook again, which means face mask and face shield. Ugh. I had been hoping they were going to set up some kind of barrier system, but apparently not. Anyway, I've read through the most salient parts of the manual already, but I'll be doing most of the rest in another ten days or so. I can become an expert on just about anything, but the expertise doesn't last very long before it is overwritten with new information. I'd hate to learn all that stuff only to forget it by November 3.

#quarantine #election 2020 #recipe #furniture disassembly #you think that is bad?#one of my first apartments we used a sawzall to chop my sectional sofa into four pieces #so we could fit it into four different dumpsters at my apartment complex #which did not allow any trash that didn't fit in a dumpster #it was a little messy but it worked

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saintambrose · 4 years

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haha it’s US politics hours

listen, this tumblr has always been a fandom place since its inception and I’ve not really designated it as a space for political discussion because 1) I have several other avenues for that arena of discussion and 2) escapism was the theme here; but I’ve finally watched The Comey Rule and I have some THOUGHTS

and I’m not really sure how active anyone is here anymore anyway, because I’ve not really been around as regularly as I was before the nsfw-ban shitstorm, so. Diving right in.

Probably my favorite thing was how it painted the American right wing as this faux-centrist bastion of impartiality at first, the whole circus with HiLLaRy’S EmAiLs being about how they legitimately believed they could play the angle that the emails were a threat to national security all while they knew damn well it was a huge big nothingburger (with a side of hatred of women) while doing that thing that right wingers have done since the Reagan administration where they malign anything left of fascism as communism (including basic human rights) and then, predictably, you have all these very furrowed-browed old white men sitting around a conference table being VERY CONCERNED that precisely the thing they wanted to happen came true and they are completely unprepared to do damage control on the mess they engineered because WHITE MEN ARE INCAPABLE OF UNDERSTANDING THE CONCEPT OF CONSEQUENCES OF THEIR OWN ACTIONS. 🤣😂🤣😂

In all seriousness. I wasn’t crazy about Hillary either. I don’t like dynasties of any kind, royal or political. I don’t like establishment dems who are really just center-right in the real world while masquerading as left in backwards-ass bizarro-world USA. But I’m an old motherfucker now, I’m well into my 30s, I’m boring and watch CSPAN for leisure and shit. I read the reports coming out of the DOJ. One of my degrees is in political science, though admittedly, that’s the least thing that matters, in the scope of everything else these days. But it’s safe to say Hillary was unfairly maligned while republicans committing atrocities exponentially worse have been treated with kid gloves for decades. A very distinct double standard has been applied here for....longer than I’ve been alive, that even the most educated people on the left have refused to acknowledge for far too long. I watched that entire BeNgHaZi hearing (which is easily accessible on youtube, so there’s literally no excuse not to know the facts on this), and everyone knew -- everyone knew it was a bullshit smear campaign.

So, this post isn’t so much a review of the miniseries more than it’s an indictment of the corruption of American politics. The most damning aspect being that, on principle, US politics has always had a problem with embracing progressive policy, and basic civil rights in general. That’s not news; people have known this for some time. But the thing that this miniseries really illustrated in a very cartoonish, yet succinct, way is that there are experienced professionals who hold the highest, most powerful seats of authority in this country who won’t bat an eye at dedicating their entire careers to denigrating common decency, basic human rights, and even constitutional law, while being absolutely incapable of conceiving the long-term consequences of these actions, who will then turn around and concern troll over the ashes of the empire they enthusiastically helped to burn down. It’s nauseating. It’s infuriating. It shows a pathological disregard for personal responsibility.

Everyone was so preoccupied with their massive turgid erection for hating the Clintons (and women) that no one saw they were enthusiastically living in a henhouse built by fucking foxes. No one saw the genuine threat.

And, by extension, no one had the balls to acknowledge that age-old instinct of white men willing to engage in a scorched earth campaign simply to satisfy their worst impulses and entitlement complexes.

Can you fit “Who cares if we’re screwing over several generations with corrupt court-packing and a flagrant disregard for checks-and-balances predicated entirely on the honor system; we just don’t feel like doing domestic labor or respecting women and minorities so we’ll continue expediting reprehensible policies that exploit the most vulnerable people in this country because we can’t compete in an authentic meritocracy" onto a campaign slogan banner?

I sounded the alarms on this trend 20 years ago, meanwhile. My parents and I had just gotten US citizenship, luckily months before 9/11 and the patriot act; and as an outsider looking in, as someone who had risked their life escaping a dangerous regime at an incredibly young age, I saw the warning signs in the republican party even back then. Naturally, I was denigrated as an alarmist and a butthurt liberal.

You know, I’ll acknowledge that as a white person, I’m not the average American’s image of what an “immigrant” looks like. My experiences here over the past couple of decades have thrown into sharp relief how “immigrant” is just a dogwhistle for racist bullshit, because people who concern troll about us don’t seem to have many problems with us white ones. But I came out of a communist country. I’m straight outta the eastern bloc. And I don’t think there are any words in any spoken language that can do justice to how insulting it is when americans try to americasplain communism to me. Bitch. Y’all don’t fucking know. You just don’t.

The point is, even back then, I could see the slippery slope republicans were tumbling down, and I can't say I derive any pleasure from being vindicated in such an extreme fashion. Like. I told y’all motherfuckers. TWO DECADES AGO.

People who aren’t familiar with US politics, and even long-term US citizens who for some reason feel like it’s a waste to pay attention to your own shit, seem to spend a lot of time trying to unpack what precisely went wrong. My observations came up with 1) the manipulative aspect of US history in public schools glossing over, and even omitting, the most gruesome aspects of the revolutionary war, the holocaust, and the cold war (and oftentimes, the cold war is NEVER EVEN COVERED, which is especially insulting to me, for obvious reasons); 2) the manipulative aspect of US history in public schools teaching kids that the Declaration of independence and the Constitution are unassailable doctrines of freedom and liberty, and, as such, after independence was won, no further activism to maintain democracy was needed so we can all just smoke a bowl and be complacent because all those authoritarian third world regimes we constantly ridicule and criticize can NeVeR HaPPeN hErE 😒; and 3) how limpdick both-sidesism replaced civil, comprehensive political discussion because the right spent so long abusing, denigrating, and bullying the left that it was just easier to play it safe and take the milquetoast ~centrist~ stance, which always, always, always capitulates to the lowest common denominator, which is always the oppressor.

And generally just this age-old trend of holding the victims of systematic oppression to a higher moral and behavioral standard than the perpetrators of systematic oppression.

Guys, I’m tired. I’m so tired.

I’ve gotten a few questions over the years about why my writing is so angsty, why it always seems to follow the same themes; war crimes, PTSD, gore, torture.

I already escaped one authoritarian regime. The USA promised us one thing, and then once we got here, it started emulating the very tyrants we worked so hard to get away from. A lot of people have no idea what that feels like. How much of a betrayal that is. Especially considering all the financial and legal landmines one has to navigate just to do it, and then we’re punished for that, too.

I write about PTSD because I fucking have it. I write about war crimes because I’ve experienced them firsthand - just as a victim and not the perpetrator. I so often write about soldiers committing them because I want to roleplay what it’s like to not be a victim for once.

tbh writing a fucking Hamilton fanfiction is one of the most cathartic things I’ve ever done, but the extensive research I’ve had to do to be able to write this thing has been low-key traumatic. There’s a lot of historical material I’ve consumed that should have been covered at the most basic level of compulsory education, but conspicuously isn’t. And I know that’s a feature, not a bug. It’s by design.

Democracy - and independence, freedom, liberty, justice, civil rights in general - isn’t just some final xbox achievement that you unlock and then just shelve the game and forget about it for the rest of your life. You have to keep grinding to maintain it, because there will always be selfish, malicious people out there who will dedicate their entire lives playing a long con to ensure you don’t get the same opportunities as them. For the love of god, stop playing the both-sidesism game. From someone coming out of the eastern bloc, I can tell you with great confidence that that was part of the propaganda campaign you were fed to keep you from engaging so they could install a dictatorship under your nose. Do some self-guided historical research, guys. It can be very illuminating.

Anyway. I’ve gone on long enough here, but damn, don’t screw this up again, guys. Today is the first day of early voting in Texas, and I’m going to do my duty. When I first came to this country, after experiencing the rigorous vetting process and labyrinthine legal requirements of US citizenship, I was led to believe that in exchange for that privilege, I was personally responsible for my own civic self-education. It’s so much more important than you've been led to believe.

#uspol #long post #also uhhhh brendan gleeson really needs to win an award #i hope he's ok mentally after playing that role yikes yikes yikes #also 'why do your characters so often have alcohol abuse problems' uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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thelightofthingshopedfor · 5 years

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HOPEPUNK FOREVER.

I’m just. so annoyed about this whole thing tbh, this is the second day in a row I’ve had to see Twitter takes dismissing the concept of hopepunk as superfluous at best because hopeful dystopian fiction already exists and actually harmful at worst because it has no praxis and supposedly lets people get away with substituting fluffy uwu self care and kindness for activism, and I’m well aware that not everyone has to like the same things or agree on everything or whatever but like

I’m tired

especially because first somebody was saying, well, cyberpunk was in response to something and that made it important, hopepunk is a big nothingburger, which I honestly don’t understand because it’s explicitly a response to hopeless gritty grimdark “realism” and fluffy uwu pastel positivity. like. that’s the whole entire point, acknowledging that the world is full of ugliness but we do what we can to make it better anyway. that’s it, that’s all it is, it’s exactly that simple so no it doesn’t have a manifesto or a praxis because it’s...it’s just a concept! a framework for seeing the world that is in fact really important for people like me who slide too easily into hopelessness! it’s one word to encapsulate stuff like “there’s good in this world, and it’s worth fighting for” or “if nothing we do matters, then all that matters is what we do” because some of us really fucking need to remember those things and having a single conceptual framework for it that can be summarized in one word is actually really helpful! how is that possibly bad!

and either way, for people who think the idea is superfluous and/or not enough, I’m still just kind of baffled by these takes because like...if you don’t get the point of it, then...maybe it’s not for you? I mean it’s a much broader concept than “hopeful dystopian fiction,” to begin with, I’m not sure anyone’s even arguing that hopepunk is or should be a coherent genre or that it’s supposed to replace existing genres (which seems to be N.K. Jemisin’s problem with it, and maybe I just don’t know because I’m not looking in the right places but I really haven’t gotten the impression that anyone’s trying to force this idea on people who don’t want it?), it’s just another way to look at the world and frankly it does fill a lexical gap if there isn’t a more concise way to say what we’re talking about, but also, of course this concept isn’t going to resonate with everyone? if you’ve never struggled with absolute hopelessness or had to remind yourself why you keep doing things like getting up in the morning, let alone anything bigger, then yeah, you probably don’t need it! but for those of us who do find it really helpful, it’s important, so what exactly is the point of shitting on it?

if people are labeling N.K. Jemisin’s books “hopepunk” and she’s frustrated because that seems silly or pointless to her, then...okay, that’s legit, that’s her prerogative, but I really...don’t see why that should extend to invalidating the whole idea despite people explaining why it’s important to them. I don’t know if you saw elsewhere in the thread but somebody else replied with a great description: “You know how, when someone is dealing with depression, all they can see are the terrible things? How the only possibilities they can see are awful?That's who hopepunk is for. They need to have it called out in order to see it and believe it.” her response to that was “I hope those people are able to find a good therapist, but I'm not sure literary movements should be built around some people's inability to see hope without it being specifically labeled as such.” I also tried to explain why “dystopian fiction” didn’t quite cover the concept and why it resonates with me (you saw those tweets, I think), and she said

I mean, advertising does have that kind of power. Take a thing, give it a new name, maybe it feels new. But most of us get that it isn't *actually* new. It's just rebranding. If that's what you need, tho, no reason not to run with it. Shit's hard right now, so glean what you can from the world. Just... don't ask those of us who've lived through multiple rebrandings of Coke to pretend it's actually a drastic change. :)

so at least an “agree to disagree” is better than nothing but still kiiiiiinda frustrating? I don’t know, maybe there’s been an actual major push to relabel certain things as hopepunk whether the creators in question like it or not, and I just haven’t seen it because I’m not in the publishing world, and if that’s the case I can definitely understand why it might be annoying, but...I definitely don’t have the sense that’s what’s happening? if it’s just a concept some people like and that they use for their own categorization of some stories and a framework for their understanding of the world, and nobody’s forcing anybody else to use it, then literally what is the harm, I don’t get it.

#this went on much longer than it should have #also I don't know what to tag this #I'm annoyed but I don't especially want it in any tags #hopepunk #gaslightgallows #conversations

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awesomelisaremoaner-blog · 5 years

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Combatting Cummings Communications Campaign

So, here they are.

Three road-tested and ready to go campaign messages designed to strike at the wavering hearts of a few hundred thousand people in a smattering of marginal constituencies that Dominic Cummings knows he needs to win if he is to save Brexit and place Boris ‘Bozza’ Johnson on the Iron Throne of rUK until god knows when.

These simple, pared-back statements have been focus-grouped to death, and are now finely-honed weapons of mass persuasion. They are to be feared.

They will be repeated ENDLESSLY by the Conservativeratti, hoping that, over time, the statements will smash their way into the consciousnesses of ordinary people, grab ahold of their amygdalas, and squeeze a vote for the Tories out of their ordinary hands.

But there are two great things about these statements:

1. They tell us lots about what Dominic Cummings has learnt from his focus groups

2. They can be killed.

Let’s deal with point 2 first.

Behavioural science tells us that if you keep repeating a statement enough, eventually it will become truth. This is why Donald Trump says ‘Fake News’ a lot. If you keep repeating something that taps into people’s emotions, you will have an even easier job. And if that thing you repeat is very simple to say, job is most definitely a goodun.

These days lots of bad people on the depressing side of politics have worked this out, and the internet is abuzz with the sounds of bite-size populist sentiments pouring unwantedly into the minds of defenceless populaces, from Budapest to Beijing.

BUT – behavioural science also tells us how to effectively debunk these unhealthy mind viruses, strip them of their power and turn them into weapons that actually do the opposite of what was originally intended, like a re-programmed Terminator.

This was done to some effect in the 2017 election, when Theresa May’s ‘Strong and Stable’ message gradually became paired with a ‘Weak and Wobbly’ counter-message (on t’internet at least), which – allied with her increasingly wobbly performances - made repeating the phrase more of a liability than a strength. By the end of the campaign they had stopped using it altogether.

And that’s what we are going to try and do this time around – take super-villian Dominic’s campaign messages apart, and reconstitute them as something remain-y.

This is an eminently winnable fight. The Conservative victory absolutely depends on getting the kind of people who hate Brexit but also hate Jeremy Corbyn and thought Ed Miliband was a bit wet to say ‘fuck it, there’s no one else, I have to vote for Boris fucking Johnson because I am a Conservative voter’.

whereas, our victory depends on getting these lovely people to say “I don’t feel good about voting for Boris Johnson, and I never wanted Brexit anyway.” And then either voting for someone else or just going to the pub and saying fuck it all and not voting.

By the way - they are not going to vote for Corbyn, okay?

I know loads of these people, and so do you. They feel politically homeless and are ripe for conversion.

So, what does behavioural science say about how exactly you counter Dominic’s misinformation? Well, there are certain key principles:

1. Never re-state the myth. In 2017, too many people would say “it doesn’t sound very ‘Strong and Stable’ if you can’t turn up to your own debate. Sounds more like weakness”. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. All you are doing is strengthening the phrase ‘Strong and stable’ in someone’s mind. No, instead you must have a…

2. Persuasive alternative counter message. Which you repeat anytime you come across the original. This counter message should directly relate to the original message (e.g. ‘weak and wobbly’ scans like ‘strong and stable’), and it should contradict its impact.

3. It should be simply expressed

4. It should be framed to appeal to YOUR audience.

So, let’s look at the three Conservative statements and see what they can tell us about how to destroy them. Here they are:

1. We will get Brexit done by October 31st

2. We are the Party of the people

3. We will take this country forward.

I am going to deal with the last one first, as I think this is the common theme that will underpin a lot of what the Tories try to do over the next few weeks.

We will take this country forward

It’s clear that much of the clash and thunder of Bozza’s arrival in Number 10 over the last few weeks have been about creating the illusion of busyness and purpose. ‘At least he is doing something’ cries Dominic’s target audience, and this message is designed to appeal further to that powerful sentiment of frustration.

This central idea of forward momentum, impetus, activity, inevitability is going to be big for the Tories. They will complain that they were dragged into an election they did not want, and only they, not the squabbling remainers or even parliament as a whole, have the sense of initiative to get us out of the morass.

And it makes some intuitive sense. They do have a plan (a stupid, self-serving one), and they are certainly very focused on winning over the next few weeks (for the benefit of the Conservative party if not the country). So, you can’t challenge this myth by saying, “no, you are not going forward”. They are most definitely in motion.

What you have to say instead is “But they are heading in the wrong direction.”

It’s that simple: “The Tories are steering Britain in the wrong direction.”

Easy. Say that whenever you hear this ‘going forward’ line, and it will become a rock of Kryptonite around the neck for them.

Or, in the mocked-up parody campaign posters: ‘We are taking this country in the wrong direction” under a big picture of Boris’ mug.

Of course, you will have to be able to justify why you think they are pointing us in the wrong direction – but as soon as you do that you have WON, because now we are not talking about ‘forward’, but about ‘wrong direction’.

And it’s easy to justify, because not only is Brexit a BAD thing, but also they are spectacularly unprepared for any of the logistical issues of either shit Brexit, or terrifically shit Brexit, PLUS they are not going to get any meaningful changes to a thrice-rejected deal so we are either going to be a vassal state or watching fist fights breakout in chemists all over the country over the availability of Epipens or both.

See – wrong direction.

Which brings me to point 1.

We will get Brexit done by October 31st

So, once again, the way to deal with this is not to say ‘no, you won’t’, or ‘it’s a coup and the Queen will stop you’ or anything else silly – that will not appeal to our target audience.

The power of this statement comes from (1) implying that the endless debates and fannying about around Brexit will be over if we just lie back and let Bozza get on with it, and (2) that this is not such a bad thing after all – in fact it’s all fine and we might as well be cheered by his jollying, can-do demeanour rather be positively sickened by it.

It’s key to challenge this ‘not such a bad thing after all’ emotion with its converse – Brexit is in fact a terrible, terrible thing (for many of the reasons listed above).

To this end, we have had a stroke of good luck, courtesy of Theresa May no less, who managed to delay the date of Brexit doom to October 31st. Or Halloween.

Yes, Halloween.

Brexit is coming on Halloween.

And thus it is easy to pair evil with evil in the mind of the floating voter.

There are many possible permutations, e.g.:

· Boris’ Halloween Horror Show is coming

· It’ll be a real fright night this Halloween

· Don’t let your kids see what Weird Uncle Boris has planned for them, etc.

The important thing is to pair the October the 31st thing with fear.

And yes, here at last we can use Project Fear to our advantage. If someone mentions it, we can say “Yes, it is Project Fear – because Boris is about to make Project Fear a reality – on Halloween... Steve Barclay said last week they haven’t even started talking yet about how to keep car parts supply chains running after Brexit – WTF?!”

See – turn their weapons on them.

This can be fun, this can be playful. We can make memes where Boris is a scary clown. We can make jokes. We can make deep fakes.

The important thing is October 31st stops being a nothingburger, and starts being something that people might want to think carefully about before rushing headlong into it.

So we have:

· Boris’ Halloween Horror Show is coming

· He’s steering Britain in the wrong direction!

I think these two ideas play well off what I imagine are Bozza’s brand weaknesses - his underlying associations with being reckless, slapdash, mendacious and spivvy. Our target voter has all these doubts about him too.

We are the Party of the people

So this is the Tories attempt to roll their tanks on to traditional Labour territory, by indicating that they are the true champions of the 2016 popular vote, PLUS this probably also encapsulates their crowd pleasing policies on the NHS, policing and crime.

You can’t challenge this by pointing out (as I am sure Labour supporters are minded to do) that no they are bloody not the Party of the people. Trying to explain who actually influences Tory policy and how that tends not to benefit the person in the street is all a bit ‘yawn’ and won’t actually register with disengaged voters.

No, we need something cleverer and something that skewers the meaning at the heart of the message.

I think the solution is two fold:

One – the statement refers to ‘the people’ like we were one big homogenous mass of dutiful subjects, but the truth is vast swathes of the country are not reconciled to Brexit and never will be. They are in open rebellion against their flagship policy.

Most polls show more than 50% support for remain these days – so even those soft Tory voters who are leaning towards voting for him for want of any other obvious candidate do not feel truly represented by him.

Boris is acting like he is the unifying figure that can bring the country back together, and this is where we must challenge the statement. He is not uniting us at all. We are a divided people.

And this gives us the key to unravel the second part of the sentence – that reference to the big P Conservative Party.

The sentence implies that the Conservative party is acting with one voice (trying desperately to draw on that ‘stability’ that they have long ago squandered) – but the plain truth is they are divided too.

MPs are resigning, others are in open rebellion and the executive is calling for de-selection. They, like the people are split down the middle.

So there you have it:

“A divided party can never unite our country”.

The final message:

· Boris’ Halloween Horror Show is coming

· His divided party can never unite our country

· He’s steering Britain in the wrong direction!

Getting the message out

It’s clear from 2016 that Dominic has lots of whizzy tools for targeting his message where it needs to go, and you may not.

But you do know soft Tories, lots of them.

What you need to do now is to deliver this message – by sharing it on social media – into the heart of the conversation about who should run our country so it changes the dialogue and makes everything they try to do work against them.

You are like Han Solo flying the Millenium Falcon deep inside the Death Star, Frodo lobbing Gollum into the Cracks of Doom, Arya pulling the knife-drop trick on the Night King. Watch the waves of destruction spread.

Thanks for listening and good luck.

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andytgerm · 7 years

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Oscar Picks! Get Your Fresh Unique Oscar Picks Here!

TI did good this year! In terms of preparation, I mean. These picks are probably godawful, a losing combination of switching between going with my gut or my heart or my head. But, I have seen all but THREE of the nominated films (2 animated, 1 foreign language), which is, I think, very good for someone with no connections for screener access. Also, I thought it was, on the whole, a good group of nominees, in that I only wanted to die while watching, like, 3 of the movies.

So, without further ado, my mostly informed picks for tonight!

Best picture: “Arrival” “Fences” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Hell or High Water” “Hidden Figures” “La La Land” “Lion” “Manchester by the Sea” “Moonlight”

La La Land has been “controversial” since more than festival-goers saw it because it’s been the front runner for so long. But it will surprise few to learn that I think it’s great! Deeply considered and moving, and with thematic depth, plus the kind of razzmatazz I’m a complete sucker for. Frankly, I don’t see a ton of differences between it and, say, Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of craft and skill displayed, but it’s been dinged because the perception is that it is light and unserious and a rip-off or what-have-you. Or too jazzy, or maybe the wrong kind of jazzy? Anyway, it’s definitely winning, and in a line-up with only 2.5 movies I didn’t as least think were “mostly good” (Hacksaw is pretty bad, Lion is meh-nipulative, and Hidden Figures is a little obvious, but otherwise I like ‘em all!), I’m not really mad about it and probably would vote for it because it appeals to my taste so specifically.

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: La La Land Dark Horse: Moonlight

Lead actor: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,” Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” Denzel Washington, “Fences”

The most high profile competitive race, despite it being one of the weaker categories this year. The battle of the narratives is strong here, and I wonder if it’s been overblown a little bit. BUT, the competitor is who I would pick, so I’m going to lean into hope and go in that direction. Garfield is nominated for the wrong movie (you didn’t see Silence, but he was great), and he’s kind of a cartoon in Hacksaw with his VERY broad accent. Gosling’s charming, but the center of the so-called “backlash” against LLL with his jazz love. Captain Fantastic is a bad movie that buys into Viggo’s characters world-view too much to be anything but self-indulgent claptrap and also has no support anywhere else. Affleck’s got the momentum and a great performance, but Washington’s got the monologues. Both playing frustrating characters, one for talking so much without doing enough listening, the other for not communicating at all. My vote goes to the excellent August Wilson interpretation, again, due to personal taste leanings.

Will Win: Denzel Washington Should Win: Denzel Washington Dark Horse Smart Pick: Casey Affleck

Lead actress: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” Ruth Negga, “Loving” Natalie Portman, “Jackie” Emma Stone, “La La Land” Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

GREAT category. God, so many great female lead performances this year. My personal pick is probably the sadly un-nominated Annette Benning in 20th Century Woman, who is so subtle and great and does some of the best “watching and listening” acting you’ll ever see. But Ruth Negga probably takes the subtle and unshowy slot, and she’s terrific too, so I can’t complain too much. Given this choice selection, I’d go for the probable winner, because, seriously, Emma Stone is charming and funny and deep and complicated in La La Land, plus she gets to do a big 11 o’clock number. Huppert’s probably the potential upset, she’s got momentum and gets to do a LOT of different unusual things in Elle. Portman never seemed to reach full potential, but she’s a strong center in Jackie once you get used to the big choices and latch on to the movie’s wavelength. Streep Streeps it up and does all the things you love.

Will Win: Emma Stone Should Win: Annette Benning Emma Stone Dark Horse: Isabelle Huppert

Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” Dev Patel, “Lion” Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

Another strong category, though the Shannon nomination for that nothingburger of a movie is regrettable (he’s at least the CORRECT supporting actor to go with). Bridges is great, turning on a dime when The Big Dramatic Thing happens at the end of that terrific movie, having kept you laughing the whole way to that moment. Patel’s fine, but his section of the movie does not fulfill the potential suggested by in the first part. Mahershala Ali is another great watching and listening performance, and his raw and simple connection with Little, especially in the scene where he explains what “faggot” means to him, is so delicately beautiful. Hedges, though, is unexpected and confounding in the best way. His character is trying his best to make the best of a bad situation, giving his all, even though he’s not grown up enough to have that be enough all the time. It’s a terrific honest and unexpected portrait of grief in a movie full of contrasting pictures, and I’m really excited to see what he does next.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali Should Win: Lucas Hedges Dark Horse: Jeff Bridges

Supporting actress: Viola Davis, “Fences” Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” Nicole Kidman, “Lion” Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

Octavia would not be my Hidden Figures pick (how about that Janelle Monae, huh?) but she does have that killer line in that great scene with Kirsten Dunst. Kidman I sadly found forgettable (but check out Big Little Lies on HBO, you guys). Naomie Harris gets the most recognizable/predictable arc in Moonlight, but she sells the hell out of it. And doing it in three days!? That’s incredible. Michelle has the big scene that’s the closest we get to catharsis in Manchester, and is maybe doing the best job of “Supporting” in a way that many of these other performances aren’t. But holy hell does Viola deliver everything you would want her to in that part. I have no beef with her placement here, and she gives great watching/listening, great monologuing, and has the best scene of the movie (that night time phone call) centered on her. Gosh it’ll be great to see her win.

Will Win: Viola Davis Should Win: Viola Davis Dark Horse: Michelle Williams, I guess, but c’mon.

Best director: “La La Land,” Damien Chazelle “Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel Gibson “Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins “Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan “Arrival,” Denis Villeneuve

Oh, hey, I haven’t had the chance to say anything about it yet, but Arrival is really great and full of ideas and feelings, and to see it nominated here is great! But this is a Jenkins/Chazelle race, and La La Land fever is definitely strong within the Academy.

Will Win: Damien Chazelle Should Win: Really, I’d be glad do see anyone but Gibson, but I guess I’d go with Denis Villeneuve in the interest of spreading the wealth? Dark Horse: Barry Jenkins

Animated feature: “Kubo and the Two Strings,” Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner “Moana,” John Musker, Ron Clements and Osnat Shurer “My Life as a Zucchini,” Claude Barras and Max Karli “The Red Turtle,” Michael Dudok de Wit and Toshio Suzuki “Zootopia,” Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Clark Spencer

This is one of my “I haven’t seen them all categories” which is too bad because I like seeing animated films a bunch, but Zucchini and Red Turtle have not made it to my neck of the woods yet. I liked Zootopia a lot, though I found its second half less engaging on second viewing, and I think the villain is telegraphed a bit too heavily. But that beginning, and getting to know the world, plus its thematic depth will make it a worthy winner. Kubo is GREAT and fun and moving, perhaps a bit let down by its vocal cast, but otherwise gives you everything you could want in an animated film. But Moana is a Disney musical, and if you haven’t figured it out already, I’m a sucker for those (they make me cry just by, like, structure? Like, opening establishing musical numbers emotionally move me to tears just because they exist?). And it’s one that doesn’t forget it’s a musical halfway through.

Will Win: Zootopia Should Win: Moana Dark Horse: Kubo and the Two Strings

Animated short: “Blind Vaysha,” Theodore Ushev “Borrowed Time,” Andrew Coats and Lou Hamou-Lhadj “Pear Cider and Cigarettes,” Robert Valley and Cara Speller “Pearl,” Patrick Osborne “Piper,” Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer

This crop was just ok this year, I thought, though seeking out the shorts is always one of my favorite parts of Oscar season. Borrowed Time was my surprise favorite, and is heftier than you think it’s going to be. Pear Cider is... a lot, and not always in a good way, but the style is good. Blind Vaysha’s a bit much, but has got a great Caroline Dhavernas voice-over. Piper’s level of detail is jaw-dropping. And Pearl’s got tech innovations and well-calibrated sentimentality, so that gives it the edge for me.

Will Win: Pearl Should Win: Borrowed Time Dark Horse: Piper

Adapted screenplay: “Arrival,” Eric Heisserer “Fences,” August Wilson “Hidden Figures,” Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi “Lion,” Luke Davies “Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney

I mean, am I gonna not give a theoretical award to August Wilson? Well, predictions-wise, yes, but god that script is so deep and fascinating. This is an easy area for them to recognize the great achievement of Moonlight, and it is certainly a win I can get behind, three well-told connected stories is no easy feat.

Will Win: Moonlight Should Win: Fences Dark Horse: Arrival

Original screenplay: “20th Century Women,” Mike Mills “Hell or High Water,” Taylor Sheridan “La La Land,” Damien Chazelle “The Lobster,” Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou “Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan

20th Century Women! That’s a hell of a script, and it moves so beautifully and delicately. What a wonder of a miracle that movie is! The Lobster is prickly and the dialogue is very mannered, but the conceptual originality is undeniable. Hell or High Water has a lot more on its mind than you go in expecting, and was a huge surprise favorite for me, with some terrific duet scenes (Pine and his kid! Pine and Bridges!) and wonderful cameo sized characters (Texans with guns! Waitresses!). In hopes of a “spread the wealth” mentality, I’m predicting Manchester, though, as it’s not favored much elsewhere, and it certainly is written with depth and insight.

Will Win: Manchester by the Sea Should Win: 20th Century Women Dark Horse Smart Pick: La La Land

Cinematography: “Arrival,” Bradford Young “La La Land,” Linus Sandgren “Lion,” Greig Fraser “Moonlight,” James Laxton “Silence,” Rodrigo Prieto

These are all great!

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: Moonlight Dark Horse: Moonlight

Best documentary feature: “13th,” Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish “Fire at Sea,” Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo “I Am Not Your Negro,” Raoul Peck, Remi Grellety and Hebert Peck “Life, Animated,” Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman “O.J.: Made in America,” Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow

Many of these are also great! And the three that are centered on the African American experience are a nice trilogy together. But, c’mon, OJ is a TV miniseries.

Will Win: O.J.: Made in America Should Win: I Am Not Your Negro Dark Horse: 13th

Best documentary short subject: “4.1 Miles,” Daphne Matziaraki “Extremis,” Dan Krauss “Joe’s Violin,” Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen “Watani: My Homeland,” Marcel Mettelsiefen and Stephen Ellis “The White Helmets,” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Boy, this is an emotional killer of a category. After seeing all 5 in one night on the big screen, I tweeted “Saw all the Oscar doc shorts tonight, and they were crushing, but if seeing all of any 1 category would make one a better person, that's it.“ and I stand by that. Illuminating and tough, a great group of shorts.

Will Win: The White Helmets Should Win: Watani: My Homeland Dark Horse: Extremis

Best live action short film: “Ennemis Interieurs,” Selim Azzazi “La Femme et le TGV,” Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff “Silent Nights,” Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson “Sing,” Kristof Deak and Anna Udvardy “Timecode,” Juanjo Gimenez

This was definitely the weakest shorts category. I enthusiastically liked one of them (Sing) and thought another one was fun (Timecode), but the rest I found inaccessible (Ennemis Interieurs) or verging on sappy (La Femme/Silent Nights). My cynical self thought Silent Nights (sentimental, but deals with Important Social Issues) would win the moment I saw it, though I have heard of no one who is a fan. Still gonna guess it, so I can be pleasantly surprised when it loses.

Will Win: Silent Nights Should Win: Sing Dark Horse: Ennemis Interiurs

Best foreign language film: “A Man Called Ove,” Sweden “Land of Mine,” Denmark “Tanna,” Australia “The Salesman,” Iran “Toni Erdmann,” Germany

I was blown away and cannot stop thinking about The Salesman. That movies got staying power, plus it received extra attention with the awful Travel Ban, so that makes it an easy prediction. I haven’t seen Land of Mine. Tanna was pretty and simple and unique, but didn’t really hold together upon reflection. Ove is pitched right to the older sentimental voter, and I guess it’s a pretty ok version of that story. Toni Erdmann’s got the cool film fan vote, and it had like 3 of my deepest, most gut-busting laughs of the crop, but it took a long time for me to get on board with it.

Will Win: The Salesman Should Win: The Salesman Dark Horse: Toni Erdmann

Film editing: “Arrival,” Joe Walker “Hacksaw Ridge,” John Gilbert “Hell or High Water,” Jake Roberts “La La Land,” Tom Cross “Moonlight,” Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon

Another easy area for La La Land to rack up a sweep, and it’s certainly got rhythm and pizzazz going for it. Moonlight’s got some terrific wordless sequences though, and can hold a long shot with the best of them.

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: Moonlight Dark Horse: Moonlight

Sound editing: “Arrival,” Sylvain Bellemare “Deep Water Horizon,” Wylie Stateman and Renee Tondelli “Hacksaw Ridge,” Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright “La La Land,” Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan “Sully,” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Arrival made up all those alien noises, which were really essential to you buying into the movie. Deepwater Horizon was a better watch than I expected, and it certainly explores all the different ways an oil rig can blow up with sound. Sully’s got those birds. Don’t forget the birds. But this is a big war movie category, and the most high profile one of the night will *sigh* probably win here.

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge Should Win: Arrival Dark Horse: La La Land (sweeps can be powerful, you guys)

Sound mixing: “Arrival,” Bernard Gariepy Strobl and Claude La Haye “Hacksaw Ridge,” Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie and Peter Grace “La La Land,” Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee and Steve A. Morrow “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi,” Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Mac Ruth

I watched Michael Bay’s Benghazi movie and all I got was vague credibility when predicting this lousy Oscars category (it was bad). Musicals do well here, though I think La La Land is weaker than many think here because a lot of folks complain that they couldn’t understand the lyrics (I thought the mixing was fine, but they maybe should have chosen singers with more powerful voices?).

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: Arrival Dark Horse: Hacksaw Ridge

Production design: “Arrival,” Patrice Vermette, Paul Hotte “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock “Hail, Caesar!,” Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh “La La Land,” David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco “Passengers,” Guy Hendrix Dyas, Gene Serdena

Sweepin’ gonna sweep. How bout Hail, Caesar!, tho?

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: Hail, Caesar! Dark Horse: Arrival

Original score: “Jackie,” Mica Levi “La La Land,” Justin Hurwitz “Lion,” Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka “Moonlight,” Nicholas Britell “Passengers,” Thomas Newman

Original musical! I’ve been humming and feeling the great instrumental themes form La La Land since I saw it.

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: La La Land Dark Horse: Jackie

Original song: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” “La La Land” — Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul “Can’t Stop the Feeling,” “Trolls” — Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster “City of Stars,” “La La Land” — Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul “The Empty Chair,” “Jim: The James Foley Story” — Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting “How Far I’ll Go,” “Moana” — Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

This is a heartbreaker category, where is Popstar? Where is Swiss Army Man? Where is Sing Street? Why those La La Land songs? I’ve gotta go with my sort-of Twitter buddy Lin Manuel Miranda (he followed me for a little while, OK? Get off my back!), even if he’s many not who most are predicting. Plus, if Pasek and Paul lap him and EGOT in a year, I’ll be pissed at how rude that is.

Will Win: “How Far I’ll Go” Should Win: “How Far I’ll Go” (really for the second reprise, but it’s good at first too!) Dark Horse: “City of Stars” (though Audition is better, and Someone in the Crowd’s the best song in the movie)

Makeup and hair: “A Man Called Ove,” Eva von Bahr and Love Larson “Star Trek Beyond,” Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo “Suicide Squad,” Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson

Realistic old person makeup is hard to bet against, and I really don’t want to live in the Oscar Winner Suicide Squad world. Star Trek’s got really good work in this category, too, though.

Will Win: A Man Called Ove Should Win: Star Trek Beyond Dark Horse: Star Trek Beyond

Costume design: “Allied,” Joanna Johnston “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” Colleen Atwood “Florence Foster Jenkins,” Consolata Boyle “Jackie,” Madeline Fontaine “La La Land,” Mary Zophres

This is far from my best/most knowledgable category, but I’ll be happy if contemporary memorable designs from La La Land get it as expected.

Will Win: La La Land Should Win: La La Land Dark Horse: Jackie

Visual effects: “Deepwater Horizon,” Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington and Burt Dalton “Doctor Strange,” Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli and Paul Corbould “The Jungle Book,” Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Dan Lemmon “Kubo and the Two Strings,” Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean and Brad Schiff “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel and Neil Corbould

Did you see all those animals in the Jungle Book? And the note at the end about how it was filmed in California? That was really cool. Doctor Strange was great fun in this area too. But Kubo had a special features real showcasing this work during the credits, so it moves up in the running for me.

Will Win: The Jungle Book Should Win: The Jungle Book Dark Horse: Kubo and the Two Strings

#Oscars #Predictions #Oscar Nominations #Academy Awards

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flauntpage · 6 years

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The “Other Side” of Sports Gambling Has Always Existed

Match fixing, bribery, extortion! Corruption! Has the Supreme Court opened Pandora’s Box of illicit activity with Monday’s historic ruling?

In case you’re living under a rock, SCOTUS decided that the 1992 federal anti-sports gambling law is unconstitutional, which now gives individual states the right to allow sports betting. That’s a win for the 10th Amendment type who wants the independence to spend his or her own money as they see fit, while the federal government focuses on more important things, like governing the country. I think we call those people Libertarians. Or are they moderate Republicans? Actually, I’ve been told by the comments section to stick to sports, so let’s stick to sports before we anger the “Paul Jolovitz Fan Club President.”

You’ll see states begin to roll out programs immediately while leagues like the NBA look to monetize the ruling. It makes sense for every organization to embrace this and find ways to turn the inevitability into a positive, but the NFL seems committed to being a bit hard-headed, at least for now:

NFL sticking with their position that, above all, sports gambling is harmful to its game. pic.twitter.com/IXVqwL4BJQ

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) May 14, 2018

My first thought is that legalized sports betting will bring new audiences to the game, much like fantasy football did for the NFL. People who otherwise did not give a shit about the Jaguars vs. the Titans would at least tune in to see whether Blake Bortles would throw three touchdowns or three interceptions. Likewise, people who don’t care about the WNBA or MLS might explore a lower-level league in an effort to unearth a money-making strategy. Maybe the degenerate who frequents SugarHouse Casino might put their money into sports instead of Craps once Pennsylvania rolls out a program.

The flip side is that some people think this opens the door for more scandal from within. More Pete Rose types. Think about the NWSL player who only makes $55,000 a year who might be enticed by the ability to bet against herself and then half-ass the on-field effort. Think about the referees who could exhibit a tight whistle or just not blow it at all in the dying seconds of a close game.

The short answer to all of that is that corruption already exists in sports and always has. I mentioned Rose. How about Havertown’s very own Tim Donaghy?

He spoke about this very thing in a 2015 article with The Guardian:

Certainly organized crime played a role in the storyline here. How much of a hand does organized crime have in professional sports?

Any time that you have a sporting event with a Vegas line to it, there’s always going to be somebody involved in organized crime trying to make a dollar off of it. So I think that they constantly are trying to get to that referee, to get to a player, to get to somebody, a trainer, or a coach who can give them inside information to where they can take advantage of it. So, I think it’s always going to be there, and it is there.

It always was there and it’s always going to be there, and the motivator doesn’t even necessarily have to be money. For instance, after winning the 2006 World Cup, Italy was rocked by a match-fixing scandal that revealed that multiple high ranking domestic clubs had been working with refereeing officials to influence game assignments. Historic clubs like Milan, Fiorentina, and Lazio were hit with point deductions, fines, and bans. Juventus was kicked out of the first division entirely. The primary point was to win games, but maybe, as an aside, you could make some money, too.

This happens everywhere. Look up baseball’s Black Sox Scandal, or the point-shaving scandals involving Arizona State and San Diego basketball. Even the eSports nerds got in on the action.

What changes now is that the black market is no longer the black market. It’s not shadowy, organized crime syndicates. Athletes can simply bet on themselves and take that money straight to the bank.

I think that’s going to be a nothingburger for the typical “four major sports” athlete who makes a multi-million dollar salary. JJ Redick, for instance, doesn’t need to supplement his $22 million by bricking a few three pointers on purpose. But the NHL teenager on a rookie deal might be enticed.

One thing to consider, from a purely economic standpoint, is that states that legalize gambling can now make money via taxes. It’s like marijuana, no? People are gonna smoke it anyway, so why not make it legalize and tax it? Lemmy from Motorhead (RIP) once pointed out that the heroin epidemic would be solved if you made the drug legal. Drive away the dealers and you regain control of the situation, theoretically. I know that’s a somewhat extreme example, but we’re just talking about taking an undergound market and bringing it to the surface. To that end, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has talked about his league needing to add integrity measures to combat corruption. Additionally, there’s the concept of the NBA possessing a form of intellectual property, since the association provides the on-court product that makes gambling even possible. Those are interesting sidebars to consider.

Maybe the most intriguing thing, however, is the college athlete. The NCAA is going to be hugely impacted when unpaid players see a way to make some cash off the new rules. As I mentioned above, the player who isn’t making six or seven figures is going to be more keen to profit. That’s especially the case if you earn a zero-figure salary.

Consider this:

In past, NCAA would not allow championships in cities that allow sports wagering.

— Dana O'Neil (@DanaONeilWriter) May 14, 2018

Memo to @NCAA: You saw what just happened, yes? It's OK to finally abandon your hypocritical stance on no championship play in Las Vegas. Really, it is. You will be fine. The world won't end. You're decades late to the party on this. Your seat awaits.

— Ed Graney (@edgraney) May 14, 2018

No matter how the NCAA feels about this ruling, they’re going to be forced to adapt in some way, shape, or form. They will be pulled into the 21st Century to join the rest of us.

There are also some cultural ramifications to this whole thing. Gambling is “haram,” or forbidden in Islam, and there have been issues in the past with Muslim athletes who play for teams sponsored by gambling and lending companies. A former Newcastle player made headlines with this kind of situation a few years ago.

How about the little kid who is now growing up in a world where money is inexplicably tied to sports? I think we probably already live in that world, but we might have betting windows at the ballpark soon, just like they do in England. That’s going to be different from the world you and I grew up in.

I also wonder how much the TV networks and traditional journalists focus on betting. ESPN starting talking about spreads on College Gameday either last year or the year before, but do they now have a betting analyst on a round table discussion? Do they carve out segments for gambling advice? Is that any different from fantasy football talk?

Here’s my thing – I think anybody who had interest in betting on sports was already betting on sports. DraftKings, Fanduel, throwing $20 into your buddy’s fantasy football league, etc. It’s always sort of been there, whether you like it or not, or whether you agree with it or not. And the illicit activity that comes with it has also been there since the dawn of creation.

You can say that the “sanctity of sport” is in jeopardy or whatever, but we live in a country where posers jump on and off bandwagons at will. Clueless people call sports radio daily. Philadelphia natives become Dallas Cowboy fans. I find all of that to be offensive and blasphemous, so it’s not like allowing people to legally waste their money changes anything.

I’m all for the invisible hand, just like Adam Smith. The market will guide itself. We’ll figure out the rest.

The “Other Side” of Sports Gambling Has Always Existed published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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