#<- qbrs defender

[qrichas]

btw! from twitter, some context from qforever and qcellbits convo

#qsmp #miscommunicatios bc of language barrier is gonna make me insane #as people has been saying around please take whats said in english by non native speakers with a grain of salt bc they sometimes #cant express their idea fully #qforever is very CLEAR abt what is his tought process in ptbr #but he fumbles a lot in english bc he doesnt have an extensive vocabulary to articualte well #(he even asked for cellbits help in the trial thing bc cellbit knows how to do this in english #but theire still more clear in ptbr #im asking this very nicely please consult anyone whos fluent in ptbr/esp/fr if youre a native english speaker and wants more context #before trying to come up with analysis and lore and character studies as well #bc the ccs explain to their audience in their native language important points abt their view #that can be very much lost #<- qbrs defender

[packernet]

New Post has been published on https://www.packernet.com/blog/2023/12/19/2023-packers-season-in-review/

2023 Packers Season In Review

It isn’t every year that a team replaces a generational quarterback that has worn their uniform for 18 years. In 2023, that is precisely what the Packers had to do with Aaron Rodgers. While this isn’t common for most, Green Bay fans saw the same scenario with Aaron Rodgers in 2008 when he replaced Brett Favre. 2023 has been a tumultuous year for the Packers. Let’s take a look at what has transpired.

The Aaron Rodgers Saga

The 2022 season was, without question, Rodgers’ worst in Green Bay. He averaged just 217 yards per game and logged a 41.3 QBR, the worst career mark by a wide margin. His 26 touchdowns were the second-lowest mark of his career, and the 12 interceptions he threw were the most since his first season as the starter. Despite being favorites in the latest NFL fixtures, the Packers finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and just the third time since Rodgers became a starter.

The season was marred by the drama between Rodgers and his young receiver core and constant rumors of his potential retirement. After the season, Rodgers went into his now infamous darkness retreat in February, claiming he was “90% retiring” before the withdrawal. When he came out, he knew his time in Green Bay was over one way or another. According to Rodgers, “it was evident that it was retire or move on to a new team.”

Both sides complained about the other, with the Packers claiming that they were unable to reach Rodgers, something he blamed on bad cellular service. Regardless of your side, the stalemate ended in April when the Packers traded Rodgers to the Jets for a 2023 first-round, second-round, sixth-round pick, and a conditional 2024 second-round pick. The trade came after Rodgers announced to the world that he wanted to play for the Jets on the Pat McAfee show. For the Packers, it was time to move on.

Starting The Jordan Love Era

While the demise of Green Bay’s relationship with its Hall of Fame quarterback was quick, the roots were deep, beginning with the Packers’ decision to draft Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. With Rodgers gone, Love finally had his shot, and it has been a roller coaster of a season.

Green Bay started hot, winning two of its first three games, blowing out Chicago on opening day, and narrowly beating New Orleans 18-17 in week three. The only loss in between was a one-point loss to the Falcons on the road. However, it went downhill quickly from there. Led by Love, Green Bay dropped its next four games and five of six overall. Love could have been better during that stretch, which included a loss to the hapless Raiders, throwing just seven touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. His quarterback rating was just 75 in those six games.

However, Love and the Packers responded well to the adversity by winning three consecutive games, capped by a thrilling win against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead. During the three-game winning streak, Love threw for eight touchdowns and no interceptions, with a quarterback rating of 117.5. The wins also brought Green Bay back to .500 for the first time since September, putting them back in the playoff hunt.

How The Rest Of 2023 And Beyond Is Shaping Up

Until now, the Packers had peaked with their Sunday night win in Kansas City. Love was brilliant in that game, passing for 267 yards and three touchdowns against a ferocious Chiefs defense and outdueling two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes. However, the team immediately followed up the marquee win with a brutal loss to the Giants in a game they needed for their playoff hopes. To make matters worse, the loss came on a Monday night, meaning they had a more extended rest period than usual and will have a shorter rest period for their next game.

Currently, the Packers sit at 6-7, holding on to the 7th and final playoff seed by a thread. However, things are looking up for Green Bay. The Packer remaining schedule is challenging, but it could be worse. They play games against the 1-11 Panthers, 5-8 Bears, and 6-7 Bucs. The most challenging remaining game on their schedule is a Christmas Eve trip to Minnesota, but the Vikings are missing their starting quarterback.

The Packers have a legitimate opportunity to make the postseason in Love’s first season, their first season without Rodgers in nearly 20 years. For all his bumps and bruises, Love has been good, too. He has 23 touchdown passes on the season, and his 58.7 QBR is pretty close to Rodgers’ 62.9 mark from his first year as a starter. Their first-year numbers are strikingly similar.

Can The Packers Make The Playoffs?

The Giant’s and Bucs losses hurts them, but they’re still in reasonable shape. They possess tie-breakers against the Rams and Seahawks, their two biggest competitors in the playoff picture. They have possibly the easiest remaining schedule of the three. Green Bay is still in a position to make the playoffs, and if Love can continue progressing, we could see them playing in January.

[sportsduels]

Tom Brady vs Lamar Jackson. Lamar Stops Brady’s Quest to Perfection

Prior to last night’s game, Tom Brady and the defending champion Patriots were undefeated. While New England had received their rightful praise, they had also received criticism. Most of the quarterbacks they faced were not of high quality. This time was however, different. They were facing Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Since taking over as a starter last season, Jackson has been one of the most successful QBs. For both he and Brady this game was a huge test. To start Baltimore dominated, leading 17-0 including a rushing touchdown from Jackson. But the Pats responded, capitalizing off turnovers with a few drives led by Brady. At halftime, it was 17-13 Ravens. New England got the ball back but couldn’t take advantage, fumbling the football which resulted in a touchdown return. They did comeback with their own touchdown, but from there it was all Lamar. He led his team to two more TDs, winning the game 37-20. With the entire nation watching, Jackson had a great showing. He ended up with a QBR of 107, 3 total touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Tom Brady had 285 yards passing, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. 

#sports #nfl #ravens #patriots #tom brady #lamar jackson #follow me

[junker-town]

The NFL’s top contenders for the Super Bowl, ranked

Let’s rank every team left standing in the 2021 NFL playoffs.

The dust has settled on the opening weekend of action in the NFL playoffs with eight teams remaining in the hunt to make the trip to Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV on Feb. 7. Four games will take place next weekend to determine who faces off in each conference championship game.

Super Wild Card weekend was headlined by the Cleveland Browns’ upset win over the Steelers. Their prize for winning? A date with the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs, who are trying to win back-to-back Super Bowls. In the NFC, the No. 1 seed Green Bay Packers will face a Los Angeles Rams team that advanced out of the opening weekend despite suffering several injuries to key players. Elsewhere, we have a pair of intriguing quarterback matchups featuring the future of the position (Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen) and two of its all-time greats (Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady).

Who looks best positioned to hoist the Lombardi Trophy of the teams that are left? Here is the rest of the playoff field, ranked.

8. Cleveland Browns

The Browns’ first playoff appearance in 18 years came as head coach Kevin Stefanski and several key players (including All-Pro guard Joel Bitonio) were out because of Covid protocol. As if that weren’t enough, Cleveland was facing its long-time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, on the road, where they haven’t won since 2003. Just when it felt like the Browns were still cursed even after finally making the playoffs, Cleveland responded with a thrilling 48-37 win that pushes them into the Divisional Round.

Cleveland scored a defensive touchdown on the very first play from scrimmage. Baker Mayfield threw for 263 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Nick Chubb added 76 yards on the ground, while fellow running back Kareem Hunt got into the end zone twice. The Browns are going to have their work cut out for them against the top-seeded Chiefs next week, but the win over the Steelers was the type that should be celebrated by the fanbase for years to come.

7. Los Angeles Rams

Though offense has been the Rams’ calling card for much of Sean McVay’s tenure thus far, defense was their biggest strength in 2020, and that continued in their 30-20 playoff win over the Seahawks in Seattle. The Rams made Russell Wilson look awful as he completed just 11-of-27 passes for 174 yards with a pick and two scores while taking five sacks.

The offense got an unexpected spark when Jared Goff came off the bench in relief of John Wolford, who left the game after a big hit from Jamal Adams. Goff managed the game well while throwing for 155 yards and a score as he’s recovering from thumb surgery, but the Rams will need more from him to make a deep playoff run.

The real story on offense was rookie running back Cam Akers, who torched Seattle for 131 yards and a score on 28 carries while grabbing two passes for 45 yards. After battling for touches in the regular season, Akers has left no doubt he’s the best back for this offense moving forward.

Unfortunately, the Rams lost Aaron Donald (ribs) and Cooper Kupp (contusion) to injuries, and their status for the Divisional Round is in doubt. If the Rams are to beat the Green Bay Packers and make a deep playoff run, they need both of those guys in the lineup, especially Donald, a strong candidate for NFL Defensive Player the Year.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Despite entering the game as 10-point favorites, the Buccaneers were pushed to the limit by the Taylor Heinicke-led Washington Football Team before holding on for a 31-23 win. Tampa’s top-10 defense struggled to stop Washington’s journeyman passer, but Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does in the playoffs, throwing for 381 yards and two scores to win his first playoff game as a Buc while his former Patriots teammates and coaches sit at home for the postseason.

The offense looks primed for a big postseason, but the defense must play better to continue the playoff march. Next up for the Bucs is a Divisional Round showdown with the New Orleans Saints. In a meeting between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Brady needs to show he’s the one with more left in the tank. If Tampa can match the 500+ yards of total offense they put up against Washington, they should have a good chance to continue their dream of playing in the Super Bowl on their home field.

5. New Orleans Saints

The Saints beat the Chicago Bears, 21-9, in the opening round in a game that wasn’t as close as the score might indicate. Chicago scored only a garbage time touchdown, and was held to just 239 yards of total offense. New Orleans is about to face a much stiffer test against Tom Brady and a Tampa Bay offense that put up more than 500 total yards against Washington in their own playoff opener.

If the Saints want to extend their playoff run, Brees will need to show he’s not just a shadow of his former self. Brees threw for 265 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks against the Bears, but it’s clear he doesn’t get nearly as much velocity on his throws as he used to. Star running back Alvin Kamara may be asked to do the heavy lifting. He ran for 99 yards against a good Bears defense, but he’s capable of doing more in the passing game. Brady vs. Brees might feel like an all-time matchup based on their history, but it’s more likely the game will be decided by the other players on the field.

4. Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson has his first playoff win, and it came in impressive fashion as he exercised the demons of last year’s playoff loss to the Titans with 136 rushing yards and a score while throwing for 179 more in the Ravens’ 20-13 win in Tennessee.

The Ravens also snapped a streak of 21 straight losses in the regular season and playoffs when trailing by 10+ points. After going down 10-0 early vs. the Titans, Baltimore ended the game on a 20-3 run, held Derrick Henry to a mere 40 rushing yards, and won the total yardage battle 401-209.

It was the type of complete performance that makes Jackson and the Ravens look like a legitimate Super Bowl threat, but things are only going to get tougher from here. Josh Allen and a tough Buffalo Bills defense are waiting next week in a matchup of two of the brightest young quarterbacks in the league. While Jackson will deservedly get most of the attention, he’ll need to get another sublime performance from his defense that just smothered the Titans.

3. Buffalo Bills

The Bills had gone 25 years without winning a playoff game entering the weekend. That streak is no more.

Buffalo came away with a 27-24 win Saturday over the Colts to advance to the Divisional Round. Josh Allen was once again the star of the show, as he threw for 324 yards and ran for 54 more while accounting for all three of Buffalo’s touchdowns. However, Buffalo’s defense left a lot to be desired, as they allowed the 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who may retire this offseason, to throw for 309 yards and two scores while finishing with a season-high 91.9 QBR. Buffalo’s defense will have to be better against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

One thing that should make Buffalo feel better is the performance of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Bills’ big offseason acquisition went off for 1,500 yards receiving during the regular season, and followed it up by catching six passes for 128 yards and a touchdown in his playoff debut for Buffalo. Allen will be looking his way early and often against a great Baltimore defense.

2. Green Bay Packers

The Packers will be well rested when they begin their playoff run in the Divisional Round. After finishing the regular season ranked ninth in total defense and fifth in total offense behind likely NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the top-seeded Packers enter the playoffs as the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Green Bay now draws the Los Angeles Rams in their playoff opener. LA looked dominant defensively in their win against Seattle, but several injuries to key players means the Packers are likely to be a big favorite ahead of kickoff. The spotlight will be on Rodgers, as it always is. He’ll be looking for top target Davante Adams throughout the game. Adams popped off for 115 receptions, 1,374 yards, and 18 touchdowns during a breakout regular season performance. We’ll believe someone can stop the Rodgers-Adams connection when we see it.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

What more is there to say about the Kansas City Chiefs? Quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads a perpetually dangerous and explosive offense back into the postseason as the frontrunners to win it all and defend their championship crown.

The Chiefs are coming off of a 14-2 regular season with one of those losses coming with an asterisk next to it seeing as it came in a Week 17 game where Mahomes and several star players sat out to rest up for the playoffs. The loss to the Los Angeles Chargers snapped a 10-game winning streak, but this is still one of the league’s hottest teams entering the Divisional Round.

If there are any concerns about the Chiefs, it might be that they coasted through portions of the regular season and could get bitten by thinking they could turn it on or off at any given time. Still, this team is loaded and ready for another run at the Lombardi Trophy. It would be an absolute shock if Kansas City struggles with the Browns in their playoff opener. The AFC still goes through KC.

[perfectirishgifts]

How To Bet QB Cam Newton And Patriots Prop Bets In Week 14 Against LA Rams

New Post has been published on https://perfectirishgifts.com/how-to-bet-qb-cam-newton-and-patriots-prop-bets-in-week-14-against-la-rams/

How To Bet QB Cam Newton And Patriots Prop Bets In Week 14 Against LA Rams

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – NOVEMBER 29: Cam Newton #1 of the New England Patriots makes a pass … [] against the Arizona Cardinals at Gillette Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The New England Patriots (6-6) run of 11 straight AFC East division championships will end this season. But can quarterback Cam Newton still rally the proud Patriots to a wild card playoff spot? Not likely, and according to fivethirtyeight, the Patriots chances to make the playoffs are just 13% as they get set to kickoff Week 14 with a Thursday night football game against the Los Angeles Rams (8-4). New England’s remaining games after the Rams are at Miami and home against the Bills and Jets.

The Rams are a 5-point favorite and the total is 44.5. That implies an approximate score of Rams 25-20. New England has won two straight games, but Newton passed for just 69 and 84 net passing yards in those two contests.

The Patriots offense struggled in wins over the Cardinals 20-17 and last week’s 45-0 crushing of the Chargers that was dominated by the Patriots defense and special teams. The Patriots generated just 179 yards total offense at 3.5 yards per play against Arizona. Last week’s win against the LA Chargers was 291 yards offense with the Patriots pounding the ball on the ground a week high 43 times for 169 rushing yards.

Last week we took a look at the running backs props in the Browns and Titans game, and Derrick Henry surpassed his receiving yards prop with a third quarter reception for nine yards. The Browns buried the Titans early and built a 38-7 halftime lead to take the Titans out of their game plan and balanced attack to run the ball more with Henry. This week we’ll look at the quarterback props in Thursday nights Rams and Patriots prime time feature and bet against Cam Newton reaching his passing yards total.

Popular Player Props on Cam Newton and Jared Goff

Here are Cam Newton’s player props and some season stats to reference at TheLines sports betting news site as well. Newton has padded his subpar stats against the three weaker defenses of the Texans, Seahawks and Jets. Seattle and New York allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL. Newton is likely to struggle in the passing game against the Rams, and under 185.5 passing yards is a play and bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cam Newton

Passing yards – over 185.5 (100); under 185.5 (-124)

Passing attempts – 26.5

Pass completions – 17.5

Pass touchdowns – 1.5 (over 190, under -250)

Interceptions – 0.5 (over -150)

Pass and rush yards combined – 232.5

Rushing yards – 45.5

Note that FanDuel sportsbook is not as high on Newton’s passing yards with an over/under of 180.5. Bettors are advised to shop various online sportsbooks and wager on the best numbers for their bets of interest.

Newton is also 600 to score the first touchdown of the game, and -112 for any score.

Cam Newton’s 69 rushing touchdowns are the most by a quarterback in NFL history. He set the single season rushing touchdown mark for quarterbacks in 2011 as a rookie when he rushed for 14 touchdowns. He could break that with four more this season.

Here are Jared Goff’s player props and game-by-game stats and betting trends.

Jared Goff

Passing yards – over 270.5 (122); under 270.5 (-152)

Passing attempts – 35.5

Passing touchdowns – 1.5 (over -150, under 120)

Interception – 0.5 (over -130)

Note William Hill sportsbook has Goff’s passing yards at 263.5 (-110) and BetMGM is even lower at 262.5.

Goff is 3000 for first touchdown and 550 for any score.

Should the Patriots fall too far behind, Newton will be forced to pass more in the second half which is the risk of playing under his passing yards total. That’s what happened to the Rams earlier this season at Buffalo when Jared Goff had near 100 passing yards at halftime but had to rally from a 28-3 deficit and finished with 321 passing yards in a near miracle comeback but eventual loss, 35-32.

New England currently leads the league in rushing attempts per game (33.2) with Newton averaging nearly 10 carries per game for 435 yards and 11 touchdowns. But Cam has been unable to carry the Patriots passing game throwing nine interceptions to just five touchdowns for 2,053 yards and a QBR rating that ranks No. 26 in the league.

In the Nov. 1 game at Buffalo, Newton was 15-for-25 and 174 passing yards in a 24-21 loss. Now Newton and the Patriots face the Rams defense that allows a league-low 4.6 yards per play and a league-low 198 passing yard per game.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Newton (21) and Goff (22) very close in its quarterback grades which analyzes every player and every play of every game in the 2020 NFL season. The Rams Aaron Donald is the highest-rated interior defender in PFF’s player grades. Donald is dominant, and he’ll be a disruptive force as the league leader in applied pressures and No. 2 in sacks (11). Top-5 rated cornerback Darious Williams joins Jalen Ramsey to form a strong pair of shutdown corners.

Newton had a passing touchdown and two rushing touchdowns in last week’s win as New England’s defense dominated. The Patriots special teams are superior to the Rams with New England ranking as one of the best and Los Angeles one of the worst. But Newton will need to pass for more yards and minimize turnovers against the Rams for the Patriots to prevail and win.

I wouldn’t bet on it, or the Patriots in Thursday’s prime time game.

More from Vices in Perfectirishgifts

[jrsechelon]

Quarterback Rankings

It's only been five weeks, but already a great divide has emerged. The divide isn't between great teams and bad teams -- although a divide does exist between the league's frontrunners and bottom dwellers -- but between the EFL's top quarterbacks in the thick of the way-too-early MVP conversation and, well, every other quarterback in football. What's notable is that there are only three quarterbacks in that top group, leaving the other to jockey for position under their separate subhead. Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and DeShaun Watson are in a class of their own. They're playing quarterback at a level that none of the other starting quarterbacks around the league have touched so far this season. At this point, they're the three MVP frontrunners along with Evolution running back Christian McCaffrey. That's not a problem in and of itself, but the effect is that it makes power ranking quarterbacks very difficult. Because after those first three quarterbacks, the rest of the bunch is packed so tightly together that it can be difficult to sort through the rubble. On that note, welcome to our first edition of EFL quarterback power rankings. Below, you'll find our quarterback power rankings heading into Week 6. But first, a few notes on the criteria:

One quarterback per team. Whichever quarterback started in Week 5 will be the quarterback selected. So you'll find Mason Rudolph listed for LilShupeScoresBIGPoints not someone else in the slot even with the terrible injury he sustained at the hands of PURPLEHAZE.

Recent success matters more than past success. These are power rankings. That's why you won't see Tom Brady the greatest quarterback of all time, at number 1. We're valuing performances this season more than performances in previous seasons. We're valuing performances last week more than performances four weeks ago.

But reputation and history do matter Because they're tools we're using to predict future success. For example, Rivers hasn't played like the 12th best quarterback this season, but his Hall of Fame resume leads me to believe his best football is in front of him, so he received a bit of a boost.

There's more to the rankings than wins and losses. Wins are not a quarterback stat. While we're definitely taking into account wins and losses, it's not the only thing that matters. You'll see a ton of other stats listed like Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, and Quarterback Rating. Yes, the eye test matters too.

That's it. Onto the rankings.

#1 Patrick Mahomes - Dallas Busy KIllers QB

Even after two "down" weeks by Mahomes' lofty standards, he's on pace to throw for a tick more than 5,859 yards, which would smash the all-time record. It's worth remembering that Mahomes is operating within an offense that is shorthanded and that he's dealing with an ankle injury that has limited his mobility. Still, he is leading his team ahead of the pack in his respected division and looking like he will continue his dominate play even with the injury and lack of support.

#2 Russell Wilson - Santa Clara Hyrule Empire QB

What a week it was for Wilson, who submitted a four-touchdown performance against the Cripplers Thursday night with the entire league watching, and then watched Mahomes endure difficult outings. With that, Wilson is firmly in the MVP discussion even though he's saddled with Brian Schottenheimer as his offensive coordinator, a coach who is hellbent on establishing the run even though he has the second-best quarterback in football leading his offense. Hyrule Empire was able to regain division control last week in an impressive performance from Wilson, this weekends contest will be a more difficult test for the second-best Quarterback after five weeks.

#3 Tom Brady - Denver BroncosTillDeath QB

Brady's no longer the quarterback he once was, but he's still playing good football. His yards per attempt (7.5) is right in line with his career average and he's thrown 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, even though he's dealt with turmoil around him, most notably upfront. Brady gets an added boost because he's the greatest quarterback of all time. After a weekend that showed why Mr. Sanders picked this team to win the Super Bowl, we all cannot deny the leadership in this locker room that TB12 and Watson can muster.

#4 Aaron Rodgers - New York Sultans QB

Like Brady, Rodgers is no longer the quarterback he once was, but with the Sultans' defense playing out of its mind, he doesn't need to be. I said this on a recent article and I really didn't mean it as a slight, but Rodgers in a way has become somewhat of a game manager, a role that he's actually good at because he rarely turns the ball over. But what separates him from other game managers is he's still very much capable of making superhuman throws and winning a shootout if the game calls for it. Rodgers has all the abilities you want in a Quarterback and he showed it again last weekend pushing his team's divisional record to 2-1.

#5 Carson Wentz - Chicago Buds Bums QB

Through five weeks, Wentz ranks 10th in DYAR, 12th in DVOA, and sixth in QBR. What's concerning is his average of 6.6 yards per attempt, which is a full yard below his average YPA from the last two seasons. Ten touchdowns and only two interceptions are enough for Wentz to climb into the top 5, but improvements are needed. This team is sitting at 2-3 with a battle of Chicago on the horizon and there is nothing more important than for Wentz to lead this team over cross-town rival and get back to .500 nearing the half-way mark of the season.

#6 Lamar Jackson - Cincinnati Straight Edge Society QB

He's come crashing back down to earth after an awesome start to the season when he looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, but Jackson's overall numbers are still impressive, especially when you remember he's only heading into his 13th career start. Averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, and 308 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown, Jackson is an electrifying work in progress who still ranks seventh in QBR. That all said, he's trending down. Two weeks ago, he would've been in the top five. Now, he's in danger of slipping out of the top 10. Straight Edge Society has almost have given up on Jackson taking calls about trading him - these rumblings are still at the early stages but at 1-4 and Jackson trending down it may not come as a surprise if this team pulls the trigger on shipping him to a Quarterback needy team.

#7 Matt Ryan - Oakland Black Hole Son QB

Ryan - normally a top-5 quarterback hasn't played like one so far this season as Black Hole Son continues to play good enough to hold the lead in the lowly Boll division there have been close calls which could have seen them sink even further into the abyss of suck. But for the most part, Ryan hasn't been bad. The advanced metrics actually like him better than I do. He's seventh in DYAR, and 10th in both DVOA and QBR. It's the turnovers (seven picks already, which matches his total from all of last season) that have been killer. A big divisional game this week will be telling whether or not Matt Ryan can keep up his play just enough to continue to hold the Noll divisional lead.

#8 Philip Rivers - Seattle Rainelo Hawks QB

Likewise, Rivers, a future Hall of Famer, hasn't played like a top-5 quarterback so far this season with seven touchdowns and four interceptions -- two of which came on Sunday. But I'd be shocked if he doesn't make his way into the top 5 soon. Chalk it up as a slow start to the season, one that he's likely to rebound from. Rainelo Hawks always start slow and Rivers himself starts slow, it is no surprise we find Rivers at the number 8 spot rounding out the top 10. These Hawks have a nack of rebounding mid-season and we're just about at the mid-season mark - expect big things in Rivers this weekend against top division rival The Busy Killers.

#9 Jimmy Garoppolo - San Fransisco Thunderbuddy4Life QB

If you would've told me before the season that Thunderbuddy4Life would be 2-3 after five weeks, I would've assumed Garoppolo would be playing mediocre instead of playing like an MVP candidate. Instead, Garoppolo is playing out of his mind, Garoppolo is unquestionably playing elite football. As long as he's paired with Kyle Shanahan, Garoppolo should remain a top-end quarterback at worst with the potential to leap into the top 5 by seasons end. Jimmy G is giving his team chances to win but it has been a difficult outing off and on if they can put together a complete game expect the defending Super Bowl Champions to bounce back big the next several weeks.

#10 Jacoby Brissett - Miami Evolution QB

Brissett isn't usually asked to do much he didn't throw a single pass 20 yards downfield during the loss against BroncosTillDeath - but he's serving his role as a game manager quite well with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Evolution will look to get back on the winning side of things in Week 6 when Matthew Stafford returns from personal matters and Jacoby is shipped out to New England in exchange for Wide Reciever Mike Evans. Brissett did what was asked of him and you can't blame him for the loss against BroncosTillDeath, Walsh division rival - Evolution was just outplayed by the smalled of margins but they shouldn't worry, Stafford will get them back on the right side of things and we wish Brissett the best up in New England, he should continue stellar play.

#11 Kirk Cousins - Minnesota PURPLEHAZE QB

After a dreadful display against Evolution, Cousins rebounded against LilShupeScoresBIGPoints by completing 81.5% of his passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns. But beating up on bad defenses has never been Cousins' issue. For him, it's about playing this well against good teams, something he's yet to do with the PURPLEHAZE and really, throughout his entire career. He's saddled with a bad offensive line, but a quarterback making the kind of money he makes is supposed to be able to overcome the issues around him. It'll be difficult to move him up this list until he proves he can play well against a quality opponent. Luckily for him, he will get that chance this weekend when PURPLEHAZE and BroncosTillDeath go head-to-head for first place in the Walsh division.

#12 Jared Goff - San Mateo Balls Deep QB

Even after Goff's dreadful ending to the 2018 season, nobody expected this kind of drop off. But the drop off has been severe. So far this season, no longer sheltered behind a great offensive line and running game, Goff has been awful compared to what he was in Years 1 and 2 under Sean McVay. His YPA is down a full yard from last year and he's thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. He doesn't look like a quarterback who can overcome the deficiencies around him. He looks more like a quarterback who has been propped up by a strong supporting cast in years past and a great coach. But if anyone can fix Goff, it's McVay. 0-2 in the division and a date with the defending Super Bowl Champions in their stadium, Balls Deep and Goff need to get this W badly.

#13 Kyler Murray - New England HellbentKronik QB

Murray is progressing just fine given where he's at in his career. He might not have great numbers, but you can see the flashes of greatness every now and then. Give him time to develop. Besides, he just picked up his first win as a starting quarterback. He has a chance to still start in this offense if freshly acquired Quarterback Jacoby Brissett doesn't pan out like they are hoping up in New England. Murray is young and whether he sits and develops or plays and develops he is instore for a great career, it'll just take some time.

#14 Daniel Jones - Thunderbay, Ontario, Canadian Cripplers QB

For a rookie on a bad team, Jones has actually played well. Like Murray, ignore his raw numbers and instead watch for the flashes of brilliance. He's made mistakes like all rookie quarterbacks, but suddenly, it's a little easier to understand why the Cripplers signed him. He's got a chance to be good, but he's coming off consecutive underwhelming outings (5.9 YPA, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a 71.3 passer rating). Give him time, and time is what he will get as the Cripplers patiently or impatiently await Brees or Newton to get healthy enough to play. Until then this is Daniel Jones' team and he'll look to get his second career win against Yuba City Sultans this coming Thursday night.

#15 Baker Mayfield - Chicago VanillaGorillas QB

Mayfield has taken a substantial step backward in his development after a record-setting rookie season. Behind a bad offensive line but with tremendous skill-position players, Mayfield has thrown twice as many interceptions than touchdowns. After a dreadful outing on Monday night, Mayfield has the league's lowest passer rating. He's last in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR, respectively. I still believe in his long-term future, but he's not even playing at a middling level right now. It is uncertain what VanillaGorilla is going to do with their quarterback situation but we've got to believe once again after the performance that Baker showed on Monday, this is Trubisky's team.

#16 Mason Rudolph - Greenbay LilShupeScoresBIGPoints QB

Hopefully, Rudolph recovers from that brutal hit he endured on Sunday. He hasn't been asked to do much, checking the ball down a ton, but Rudolph has been passable in that role with 6.9 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, two picks, and a 102.5 passer rating. The 2018 third-round pick deserves patience. As LilShupeScoresBIGPoints struggles to find a suitable Quarterback there are thoughts that they can resign Sam Darnold who has been cleared to return to practice and gameplay this weekend, will he be signed? Only time will tell.

Notably there are a lot of teams that are in need of better Quarterback play and as we enter Week 6 we expect some of these Quarterbacks to take the strides that they are asked to do so - while others are most likely to continue to free fall. Your guess is as good as mine but one thing is for sure we don't expect BroncosTillDeath's Quarterback(s) to encounter any trouble regardless of who may be in there. We have seen great play from both Brady and Watson, the offensive line may give them trouble at times but they are handling it better than expected. A huge win against Evolution has put BroncosTillDeath back on the map with a 4-game winning streak, the longest at the moment and we can't wait to see them toe-to-toe against PURPLEHAZE who both hold a 4-1 record. Secondly, Patrick Mahomes is on pace for a career year that will most certainly start the talk whether or not he is the greatest of all time statistically. The Busy Killers are looking stout and focused on the task at hand, week in and week out they take care of business and Mahomes continues to ball out. Right now I'd say Mr. Sanders may be right with his prediction of Busy Killers versus BroncosTIllDeath for Super Bowl XIII. Five weeks down, nine to go until Playoff time - only time will tell but enough of this talking, let's get to this weekend already!

Other notable Week 6 storylines

The trade between Black Hole Son and Straight Edge Society is an interesting one. Division rivals trading is something you rarely see but for some reason, they reached an agreement. It looks like Straight Edge Society wins this trade but with the inconsistency from Jackson, it is hard to know if getting Valdes-Scantling will help. Black Hole Son is just trading for depth as their receiving core seems strong with who they play each and every week, call it an insurance trade - although they should have worked out a draft pick in this.

LilShupeScoresBIGPoints sits at 3-2 in a very difficult division and with a struggle at Quarterback each and every week, it might be smart of them to call Straight Edge Society or another team who has a solid middle-end backup Quarterback. You aren't going to be able to contend in the Walsh division if you are always having to find a different QB to plug in each week.

Rainelo Hawks is 4-6 all-time against The Busy Killers and they are going to need an outstanding play by Rivers and company if they want to get back in the talk of contending for the Lombardi division.

With the win last week HellbentKronik isn't in last-place, that goes to long-time rival The Canadian Cripplers. There are three teams who sit at 1-4 all in the same division (Noll) - the question is which team is going to finish last and which ones will rebound before seasons end?

As three 1-4 teams sit in one division, three 4-1 teams sit in another. The Walsh division is far from decided but these next few weeks are huge, PURPLEHAZE will play their third straight division game this weekend against BroncosTillDeath and then you'd assume the schedule makers would give them a break from the division, WRONG! PURPLEHAZE is going to play Evolution again - this will mark the first time ever that a division team has played four straight division games, if they can come away from this with a 3-1 or 2-2 division record they will be poised to make a strong push for the Walsh division come seasons end, knowing their next division game after Week 6 won't be until Week 11.

Finally, the battle of Chicago is something we have been accustomed too. These two teams used to be in a division together for a long time, not that they aren't we're not sure how many more of these cross-town contests we will get to watch, but VanillaGorillas holds the all-time record at 6-2-1 and with both teams playing like garbage I have got to dub this as our first Toliet Bowl game of the season! Good luck and may the best Chicago team win.

CLICK TO VOTE

[junker-town]

4 ways the Titans turned the Ravens into the worst version of themselves

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens had to play from behind, and their lack of skill players became a fatal flaw.

The Ravens weren’t the Ravens in their 2020 playoff debut. That’s why their season is over.

Baltimore built a 14-win season and a 12-game winning streak on a run-heavy offense. John Harbaugh’s offense was predicated on slipping the ball through the trenches in a league that had long ago transitioned to high-impact aerial attacks.

On Saturday, an early deficit and a nagging injury to tailback Mark Ingram forced the team to ask Lamar Jackson to throw them back into this game. While the likely 2019 MVP was up to the challenge, he was ultimately done in by the Tennessee defense, a rash of injuries to important weapons across his offense, bad calls on fourth-and-short, and some straight-up drops downfield.

We still saw glimpses of defense-gashing, linebacker-embarrassing Ravens in their 28-12 Divisional Round loss to the Titans — they just never stuck around for long. Jackson still figured out ways to carve up the Tennessee zone defense through the air and blister spy defenders with his feet, but he only found the end zone once. As a result, Baltimore’s epic season is over after just one playoff game.

Now the Ravens have to figure out what went wrong.

Baltimore’s early deficit meant the Ravens couldn’t run like they’d planned

The Ravens fielded 2019’s best rushing offense — in terms of both volume and efficiency. Baltimore was the only team in the NFL to rush for more yards (3,296) than it passed for (3,225) this fall. Between the sturdy play of Ingram and the freewheeling runs of Jackson, the club ran the ball on 56 percent of its plays this season — the highest percentage in the league since the 2009 Jets.

That strategy was put to the test early in the team’s playoff debut. After holding the Titans to an opening-drive punt, the Ravens turned the ball over twice (an interception and on downs, more about those later) to give Tennessee the short fields needed to take a 14-0 first-quarter lead.

Those first two drives saw Harbaugh opt for eight runs and four passes (66.7 percent run plays) while following a familiar script. In the nine drives that followed, Harbaugh flipped that to 55 passes and 21 runs (27.6 percent run plays) as his team desperately tried to climb out from a pool of quicksand mysteriously shaped like Derrick Henry’s quads.

This was exactly what Tennessee wanted. The Titans stacked the box against Baltimore in hopes of draining its ground game and forcing Jackson to pick up the slack through the air:

Great breakdown from Logan Ryan on how the Titans shut down Lamar Jackson: "We had 8-, 9-man boxes all night. You play Madden and run Engage Eight all day, it’s hard to run the ball. We pretty much did that." They also used Bills as a blueprint. Full quote here: pic.twitter.com/SzjQ206skw

— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) January 12, 2020

Before Saturday, Jackson had only thrown 30+ passes five times. He’d never thrown more than 43 in a single game. He threw 59 (FIFTY-NINE) times against the Titans. This meant players like Willie Snead (31 regular season catches), Seth Roberts (21), and Justice Hill (eight) were suddenly called upon to be significant contributors in the passing game. This was not a positive for the Ravens.

Not all of those dropbacks resulted in passes either, which had both benefits and drawbacks. Jackson scrambled efficiently to avoid pressure and churn out yards, but those runs also:

a) had a defined ceiling of 20-ish yards downfield, b) failed to stop the clock throughout a game where his Ravens stared down a 22-point deficit, and c) often led to long reset times between plays.

After seeing his carries per game drop to 11.7 during the regular season, Jackson ran the ball 20 times for 143 yards. Those are impressive numbers for sure, but the running clock and the team’s inability to run an up-tempo offense out of them meant they wouldn’t be enough to create a historic comeback.

Baltimore’s aggressive playcalling finally blew up in its face

Tucked into those 20 carries were two fourth-down attempts that portended the Ravens’ doom. Baltimore came into the Divisional Round at a perfect 8 of 8 when it came to fourth-and-1 conversions this season. On Saturday, Harbaugh overthought things. The Ravens started off six yards behind the line of scrimmage on the first attempt and moved laterally against a stacked line on the second, and converted neither:

how are the Ravens this bad at calling 4th-and-short plays for Lamar Jackson? pic.twitter.com/LgqOoFag3t

— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 12, 2020

Each of these botched fourth downs led to an immediate touchdown response from the Titans. After converting 17 of 24 fourth-down attempts in the regular season, the Ravens went 0 of 4 on those plays in their one and only postseason game.

Jackson was good on paper, but he wasn’t his typical MVP self

Jackson had a perfectly fine game. The final numbers will say he accounted for 508 total yards — including a career-high 365 through the air. His offense turned 11 of its 18 third downs into first downs.

That Lamar run! 2nd-and-17 looks like NOTHING here. pic.twitter.com/3w2icTMqaa

— James Brady (@JamesBradySBN) January 12, 2020

Those are all very, very good numbers. He just wasn’t the tide-changing force that he’d been in earlier wins over the Patriots, Rams, or Texans.

He didn’t get in the end zone until the fourth quarter, becoming the third player — behind Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry — to throw a touchdown pass on Saturday night. He turned the ball over three times. He’d had just eight turnovers total in the regular season.

There were several factors behind his inconsistent play. Jackson got a worse-than-usual effort from his blockers, who struggled to contain a Tennessee pass rush that ranked 17th in the league in sack rate this season and couldn’t bring down the uh, slightly less mobile Tom Brady a week before. Jackson hadn’t been sacked more than twice since Week 5. The Titans got to him three times before the third quarter was over, and that included a strip sack that led to a 20-yard Tennessee touchdown drive moments later.

That doesn’t mean Jackson is blameless for his team’s struggles. His third-quarter interception to Kenny Vaccaro cut off what could have been a vital scoring drive in what was becoming an increasingly hopeless game. It wasn’t the function of poor blocking or a dropped ball — it was simply a bad pass.

INTERCEPTION @KennyVaccaro4! #TENvsBAL pic.twitter.com/ckZoKLL4uZ

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 12, 2020

He made the wrong decision on those aforementioned fourth-down runs and missed open targets downfield. Jackson was probably good enough to win in several multiverse replays against the Titans — but he would’ve had to have been nearly perfect to beat this version of Tennessee.

The Ravens didn’t have the personnel to prop up anything less than a superhuman Lamar Jackson

Jackson was limited when it came to support downfield. A healthier Ingram would typically be able to take some of the strain from his running game, and he also had an 89.7 percent catch rate and a career-best 8.5 yards per target in 2019. Against the Titans, he had only six carries and two targets while fighting off a strained calf that required attention during the game.

Tight end Nick Boyle, who ranked fourth on the team in total targets, left the game in the third quarter with a lower leg injury. He finished with zero catches. Pro Bowler Mark Andrews, hampered by an ankle malady, failed to have his usual impact. His tip-drill drop in the first quarter set up the interception that gave way to the Titans’ first touchdown.

BALL HAWK BYARD! @KB31_Era | #TENvsBAL pic.twitter.com/fyBAQroDqh

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 12, 2020

That wasn’t the only time Jackson was burned by his teammates downfield. Baltimore’s skill players came up with four drops in the first half alone. In all, seven of Jackson’s 59 passes would carom off his wideouts’ hands and to the turf — or worse.

Baltimore exceeded expectations in 2019 behind a curve-shattering quarterback who could do a bit of everything. Jackson’s ability to run like an amped-up Devin Hester and throw like the most efficient passer in the league (his 81.1 QBR led the NFL) helped paper over his team’s other issues — namely a lack of depth at its skill positions.

The Ravens got big plays from their quarterback. They got one amazing catch from Hollywood Brown and an otherwise solid performance. And that was about it.

The Divisional Round was a perfect storm that sunk Baltimore’s Super Bowl hopes. The Ravens were capsized by a stellar outing from the Titans, the unfamiliar territory of playing from behind, and the kind of self-inflicted wounds the team had avoided throughout a 14-2 season.

If this had happened in December, it would have been a valuable learning experience. Instead, it happened in the playoffs — and now Jackson and his teammates will have the whole offseason to think about how to fix their ship for 2020.

[love-fashionone]

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walmart andamazon say tesla solar panels caused fires at their properties I'm not an audiophile but know decent sound when I hear it. At the forum described the threat in similar terms.. For Oklahoma it depends in part on whether the Sooners win their first big non conference game Week 1 against Houston. Spokane Fire Department personnel were able to use an air bag system to lift the SUV from the male and female riders. But writing gets easy after 20 or 25 years of doing it daily. "He has had a very successful career in a tough and competitive business. But those plans were essentially quashed in May when Congress decided not to allocate any money to Attorney General Jeff Sessions' initiative to go after the marijuana states. Dorian remains a Category 2 storm and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas. 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This is play that's taught more often than it's performed mostly because of the logistical difficulties it poses. Like no one will argue that he's a friendly guy to adversaries, what positive trait can we all agree on? Here's one, he did, like the other thousands, train hard, and innovated every way he could in order to win.

[celldeal57-blog]

A closer look at Carson Wentz, by the numbers

PHILADELPHIA -- This time last year, there wasn't a hotter name in football than that of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz.

His team was 10-1 and in the midst of a nine-game win streak in which they were clobbering opponents by an average of 17 points per outing. Wentz was already nearing 30 touchdown passes and was in the driver's seat for league MVP.

What happened next is well-documented: Wentz blew out his knee in Los Angeles in mid-December and was lost for the season. The Eagles, set up well by the Wentz-driven start to the season, went on to win the Super Bowl with Nick Foles under center.

After a long rehab, Wentz returned in Week 3 against the Indianapolis Colts. The results have been mixed, both for Wentz and the team. Wentz has performed pretty well overall -- 69.7 completion percentage, 16 touchdowns, six interceptions -- but the offense has sagged, the team is 5-6, and the fireworks Wentz provided with startling regularity last season have not been as frequent this time around.

Carson Wentz might be developing into more of a pure passer, as suggested by his running much less and throwing with greater accuracy. AP Photo/Chris Szagola, File

Has his trajectory as a no-doubt-about-it superstar changed?

To get an understanding of the circumstances he is dealing with, where he is in his development and what to expect now, let's look at some key numbers that tell the tale:

26: Total number of Wentz rushes -- for 100 yards -- in nine games, compared with 44 rushes for 211 yards through nine games in 2017.

The output on the ground has just about been cut in half. That's understandable given what Wentz suffered last season, though the QB contends that the decision to run less is not injury-related but simply a matter of the way plays have unfolded this season. New quarterbacks coach Press Taylor added that Wentz is doing a better job of going through his progressions and finding the outlet receiver, rather than taking off when his primary is blanketed.

No matter where you come down on the reasoning, it's clear that Wentz's legs are a big part of what's missing from this offense.

Everything you need this week: • Scores, highlights and more » • Full schedule » | Full standings » • Weekly stats leaders » • Updated playoff picture » | Playoff Machine » • Injuries tracker: Who's in, out » More NFL coverage »

The most impactful change has been on third down. Wentz averaged 7.6 yards per carry and picked up 13 first downs on the ground in '17, compared with a 3.8 average and three first downs this season. That has to be considered when searching for reasons the Eagles dipped from second in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (45 percent) to 15th (39 percent) this season.

More than that, the threat of Wentz using his feet drew defenders in, and his ability to extend plays opened up opportunities for his teammates all over the field.

“I never want to force the issue because bad things can happen, but it’s really just case by case and the way teams are playing, the way teams are rushing," Wentz said. "I never go looking for it, but I realize there are a lot of big plays to be made when you can extend the play outside the pocket."

Wentz established career highs in carries (eight) and yards (63) the last time he faced the Washington Redskins, on Monday night in October 2017.

25.7: Wentz's "aggressiveness" rate -- defined as making throws into tight coverage -- last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which was tops in the league. This season, he is 19th (15.8).

Besides the way Wentz used his feet, the thing that stands out from that game against Washington is the touchdown throw Wentz made to running back Corey Clement in the corner of the end zone. Maybe you remember it: The Eagles were facing a third-and-goal from the 9-yard line in the third quarter. The walls collapsed the moment the ball was snapped, but Wentz slipped past the initial rush and, with two defenders draped on him, tossed a pass into the corner of the end zone that dropped just over the well-positioned Washington defender and into the arms of Clement for the score.

"Carson Wentz," Jon Gruden proclaimed during the broadcast in the wake of that play, "is unbelievable."

It was that type of improbable quarterbacking that separated Philly from the pack.

Now, being less "aggressive" could speak to a couple things, including the fact that Wentz is making smarter decisions. Zach Ertz is getting a lopsided number of targets this season (111, 40 more than the next receiver, Nelson Agholor), but Ertz is springing open with regularity, so maybe that's just good football. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger have lower aggressiveness numbers than Wentz through 12 weeks.

But for as intelligent of a football mind as Wentz has, his game has a pretty big "feel" component to it. He's at his best when he is trusting both his intuition and his playmakers and ripping it. Things feel a half-beat off in that respect this season, even more so since the Golden Tate acquisition.

69.7: Wentz's completion percentage, up nearly 10 points from last season (60.2). It's among the biggest accuracy jumps in the league.

This is one of the greatest reasons for optimism. Now in his third season, the 25-year-old Wentz is developing into a more pure passer, which will be scary once his athleticism is reintroduced into the equation a bit more as he gets further and further from the injury.

"I think he's good enough to play as if he was not a mobile quarterback. I see it right now with Andrew Luck," former QB/ESPN analyst Matt Hasselbeck said. "When we were teammates, [Luck] wanted to do it the hard way, like, 'I'm going to will this thing to happen. I'm going to take a beating. I'm going to have an adventure on every throw-away. I'm going to have adventure on every big play.' It's OK to just let the offense work for you.

"That's probably one of the lessons that I would have hoped Carson learned from Nick Foles. I thought Nick Foles did a really nice job of, hey, let the offense work. You don't have to try so hard. And I think it's tough for guys who are really strong, really athletic, bigger than the guys trying to come and tackle for you."

0: Number of go-ahead passing touchdowns Wentz has thrown in the fourth quarter or overtime in his career, per ESPN Stats & Information. Forty QBs have thrown a go-ahead passing TD in the fourth quarter or overtime since 2016. Wentz has thrown 96 passes with the Eagles tied or trailing by six or fewer points in his career, but none has resulted in a score. His QBR in those situations is 38.4, 32nd in the NFL.

Some of this has to do with opportunity. The Eagles smoked many of their opponents in '17, so we're still talking about a relatively small sample. But this is an area to improve on. Wentz certainly doesn't shrink from the moment, but it is probably fair to say that he sometimes tries to do too much in these circumstances -- like in the closing moments of the loss to the Carolina Panthers earlier in the season, when he went for the knockout blow instead of settling for a clean jab.

Wentz has four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or OT in his career, tied for 21st in the NFL since 2016. One of those came against the New York Giants last week, when he helped rally the team from a 19-3 deficit.

“Anytime we can get a victory in come-from-behind fashion, it speaks volumes about the team and the resiliency of the guys on both sides of the ball," Wentz said. "Personally, it was big to get it done [Sunday] for me, and I know that everyone feels the same.”

2: Members of the quarterback coaching triumvirate that left last offseason.

The loss of assistant coaches is a tough thing to quantify when it comes to quality of play. How much did Frank Reich and John DeFilippo mean to the success of Wentz and the team relative to what Mike Groh and Taylor are providing?

It's at least reasonable to say that Reich and DeFilippo helped both Wentz and Foles play at an exceptionally high level during the Super Bowl run, and the results just haven't been there in the same fashion this season.

That shouldn't be considered a knock on the replacements; there was a level of experience and chemistry there that is really tough to replicate. Plus, everyone has a different coaching style. DeFilippo, as an example, has a reputation of being a bit combative at times and donning the black hat willingly in the name of convincing a signal-caller to concede and play within the framework of the offense. That might have led to some friction with the equally strong-willed Wentz, but there's no denying the results.

Taylor is 10 years DeFilippo's junior and does not have the same type of résumé as DeFilippo, now the offensive coordinator in Minnesota. He has a friendlier relationship with Wentz. Spend some time around Taylor, and you realize that he's likely destined for big things in this league. He is growing into the role and believes his strong connection with Wentz helps when hard conversations come up.

"I feel like I kind of know what buttons to push with Carson and what he wants out of this thing, ultimately, so you can always kind of draw back on, ‘Well, here’s what you’ve told me about yourself.' And if there’s a time to challenge him, he knows where I’m coming from because of the relationship we have together,” Taylor said.

Bottom line

Wentz has endured quite a bit over the past year from a football perspective. He sustained a major injury. He had to watch the Super Bowl from the sideline. Two of his primary coaches left. He didn't have the benefit of training camp or the preseason to reacclimate.

When you also factor in the injuries to the offensive line, running back and receiver this season, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Wentz hasn't been off-the-charts to this point.

It might not materialize fully until 2019, but Wentz will eventually re-establish himself as a running threat. The further surgery gets in the rearview mirror, the more his confidence should grow. In the meantime, he has learned how to operate in the pocket better. That should spell big things for his game.

Source: http://www.espn.com/blog/philadelphia-eagles/post/_/id/26570/whats-happened-to-carson-wentz-by-the-numbers

[jodyedgarus]

Will The Divisional Playoffs Restore Order To The NFL?

The NFL’s wild-card round may have been a brutal showcase of grind-it-out defense and uninspired offensive play-calling. But at least it threw another intriguing wrench into what was already shaping up to be a chaotic postseason. Three of the four favorites (according to FiveThirtyEight’s pregame Elo ratings) lost on opening weekend: the home Texans, Ravens and Bears. Now we’re left with an eight-team field in which every member has at least a 6 percent probability of winning the Super Bowl, and no one is above 22 percent. Over the previous four postseasons, the favorite had an average championship probability of 31 percent at this stage of the playoffs. So with things still looking as wide-open as ever, let’s zoom in on some numbers — including classic Elo and a version with our experimental quarterback adjustments — for each divisional matchup.

How Elo sees the divisional round playing out

Win probabilities for Week 19 games according to two methods: standard Elo and a version that contains an adjustment for starting quarterbacks

Standard Elo QB-Adjusted Elo Team Rating Win Prob. Base Rtg Starting QB QB Adj. Win Prob. NO 1669 64% 1605 Drew Brees +52 64% PHI 1633 36 1616 Nick Foles +5 36 NE 1640 58 1603 Tom Brady +38 63 LAC 1648 42 1605 Philip Rivers +13 37 LAR 1634 66 1619 Jared Goff +11 66 DAL 1581 34 1576 Dak Prescott +5 34 KC 1656 66 1619 Patrick Mahomes +49 68 IND 1608 34 1565 Andrew Luck +37 32

Home teams are in bold.

Elo quarterback adjustments are relative to average, based on a rolling average of defense-adjusted QB stats (including rushing).

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

The most up-for-grabs game of the divisional round might be the New England Patriots against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon. This year’s Patriots are not the unassailable juggernaut they usually have been, though they literally have been unbeatable at home (where they’ll be this week). In fact, come kickoff, it will have been 470 days since the Pats last lost a home game of any sort and 2,185 days since they fell at home in the playoffs.

But the Chargers may actually be the superior team. Not only did L.A. have the better record (12 wins vs. 11 for New England), it ranks higher than New England in ESPN’s Football Power Index, Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings, among other rankings.

Tale of the Patriots-Chargers tape

Leaguewide NFL ranks in various categories for the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots in the 2018 season

Category Chargers Patriots Football Power Index 4th 5th Defense-adjusted Value Over Average 3rd 7th Elo rating 3rd 4th Sagarin ratings 4th 5th Simple Rating System 6th 8th Starting quarterback’s Total QBR 7th 6th

Sources: ESPN.com, Football Outsiders, USA Today, Pro-Football-Reference.com

Talent-wise, the Chargers also have more Pro Bowlers than the Pats (7 to 2) and just as many All-Pros (4 apiece). And although Elo does gives New England a 58 percent chance to reach the AFC championship game for the 10th time in 13 years, that’s the second-lowest pregame probability the Pats have had in a divisional playoff since 2006-07 — when they were given a mere 35 percent chance of beating, you guessed it, the Chargers.1 Then again, the Pats did in fact end up winning that one, in San Diego, under crazy circumstances. As always, it’s tough to count out Tom Brady in the AFC playoffs,2 where he is 22-7 all-time as a starter and hasn’t lost since January 2016.

On paper, the biggest mismatch of the second round features the New Orleans Saints at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Las Vegas’s sportsbooks opened with the Saints as 8-point favorites, which would seem to make sense in a clash between a 13-3 top conference seed and a 9-7 team that needed an unlikely confluence of events just to make the playoffs at all. But, of course, the Eagles aren’t just any team — they’re the defending champs, with a script that seems all too familiar.

Once again, backup QB Nick Foles has relieved the injured Carson Wentz (probably for the rest of the season?), and once again Foles is leading Philly on an underdog playoff run. When this happened with last year’s Eagles, coach Doug Pederson changed his offensive approach to better accommodate Foles’s strengths, focusing on higher-percentage short passes with more yards picked up after the catch (mixing in the odd deep bomb), and calling more play-action passes with an emphasis on getting the ball out quickly and avoiding mistakes. So how much of that stylistic shift has played out this time around?

Is Eagles QB history repeating itself?

Key passing rate statistics for Carson Wentz and Nick Foles in the 2017 and 2018 seasons (including playoffs)

2018 Season (incl. playoffs) QB Comp% AY/Att YAC/Cmp TD% Int% Pressure% Sack% Play-Action% Wentz 69.6% 7.8 5.0 5.2% 1.7% 26.2% 7.0% 26.7% Foles 70.6 6.9 5.0 3.8 2.6 24.1 4.1 22.6 2017 Season (incl. playoffs) QB Comp% AY/Att YAC/Cmp TD% Int% Pressure% Sack% Play-Action% Wentz 60.2% 9.8 4.8 7.5% 1.6% 29.5% 5.6% 21.6% Foles 64.7 7.8 5.6 5.3 1.4 28.8 3.3 30.9

AY/ATT = Air yards per attempt YAC/CMP = Yards after catch per completion

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

This year, the differences are more subtle. The Eagles have once again thrown downfield less with Foles, but that hasn’t been paired with more yardage after the catch, nor has it resulted in fewer picks. They’re also calling a lower share of play-action passes for Foles than they did for Wentz, a big reversal from last year. But one constant has been Foles’s ability to get rid of the ball under pressure and avoid sacks, which was a key factor on Sunday against Khalil Mack and Chicago’s ferocious pass rush. The Saints were sixth in sacks this season, so Foles’s quick release should come in handy again this weekend as the Eagles try to avoid a repeat of their 48-7 thrashing at the hands of New Orleans in November. But for all the Foles mania, it remains to be seen if Philadelphia’s defense can slow down Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense after allowing 546 total yards in that earlier matchup.

As my ESPN colleague Adam Teicher recently wrote about, Saturday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts is a historically great quarterback matchup. The two QBs — Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck — spent the regular season tossing 89 combined touchdown passes, an NFL record for QBs facing off in any postseason contest. (Even considering the NFL’s spike in passing numbers, that’s a lot of touchdowns!)

The Chiefs are looking to finally snap a decades-long run of postseason futility that hasn’t seen them advance past the divisional round since 1993-94. But the bad luck of running into, um, Luck is part of their ongoing problem at this stage of the postseason. Among the 21 teams that have played at least five divisional playoff games since the Chiefs’ dry spell began, the Chiefs have faced the third-most difficult slate of opposing quarterbacks, according to our QB-adjusted version of Elo:

The Chiefs have run into some tough playoff QBs

Highest average quality of opposing quarterback faced in the divisional round (based on QB-adjusted Elo ratings) for NFL teams with a minimum of five divisional playoff games since the 1994 season

Average Opp. Elo Win Percentage Team Games QB-Neutral QB Adjustment Effective Rating Predicted Actual Jaguars 5 1622 +56 1678 32.3% 60.0% 49ers 9 1596 +40 1636 53.3 55.6 Chiefs 6 1581 +40 1621 61.7 0.0 Jets 5 1647 +40 1686 37.7 60.0 Falcons 7 1608 +34 1642 51.9 57.1

Includes playoffs for the 2018 season.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Thanks to a steady dose of all-time greats such as Brady, Peyton Manning, John Elway, Ben Roethlisberger and now Luck, the Chiefs have seldom caught a break by facing a comparatively weak QB at this point in the playoffs. Since 1994-95, only the Jaguars and 49ers have had worse luck in that regard. (Of course, those teams still managed to overcome it and win more often than not, while the Chiefs keep finding ways to lose.) But it’s also worth pointing out that KC has seldom had the superior QB in the matchup, which it does have this year in Mahomes. According to Elo, Mahomes is not only better than Luck, but he has the second-best pregame rating adjustment of any Chiefs playoff starter in a divisional round game since the 1970 merger, trailing only Trent Green from 2003-04 (when Kansas City gained 408 yards — and didn’t punt the ball once — but still lost because the Colts gained even more yards and also didn’t punt.) With a likely MVP under center, the Chiefs are hoping they finally have the ingredient that was missing in those previous postseason disappointments.

Instead of having to face the Dallas Cowboys in January, the Los Angeles Rams probably would prefer it if the playoffs had been held a month and a half ago, back when they were on pace for 14 wins and sat as Super Bowl favorites in Vegas. According to Elo, the Rams peaked after beating the Detroit Lions in Week 13 — after which they went 2-2 and shed nearly 40 points off their rating. But the good news for L.A. is that similar “peaking too early” teams tend to do pretty well for themselves in the playoffs. I looked for other teams that cracked a 1650 Elo rating (with the QB adjustment) through 12 games of an NFL regular season,3 then lost at least 30 points of Elo over the final four games before going into the playoffs. Of those 20 teams, 14 still made the conference championship, with nine making the Super Bowl and five winning it all (the most recent of which were the 2009 Saints). So any rumors of the Rams’ premature demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

If there is a takeaway from the Rams’ late-season slump, it might be a reminder that one of the most important factors for Los Angeles will be getting back to selling the run and keeping the Cowboys off-balance with play-action passing. During the Rams’ 11-1 start, they led the league with 5.3 expected points added per game off play-action passing, more than 0.8 points per game better than New England, the next-best offense. In Weeks 14 through 17, that number dropped to 3.2 EPA per game, which ranked only seventh-best.

The Rams’ play-action game disappeared down the stretch

NFL ranks for the 2018 Los Angeles Rams on play-action passes, by week

NFL Rank Category Weeks 1-13 Weeks 14-17 Passing EPA per game 1st 7th Total QBR 8th 25th Passer rating 7th 15th Yards per pass 5th 15th Passing yards per game 1st 8th

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

Though L.A. running back Todd Gurley was on track for an MVP-caliber season before missing games with a balky knee down the stretch, there isn’t evidence that missing a stud RB necessarily hurts a team’s play-action game. The Cowboys had one of the NFL’s best run defenses this season, so overusing Gurley to set up play-action on Saturday might be a waste anyway. But getting Dallas to commit to defending the run and then shredding the Cowboys through the air seems like the Rams’ best ticket to the NFC title game.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

To keep up with every team’s Elo rating during the playoffs, check out FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction interactive, which simulates the rest of the season 100,000 times and tracks how likely every team is to advance to the Super Bowl. You can also pick playoff contests against the Elo algorithm in our prediction game and keep climbing up our giant leaderboard. (Or you could be like me, and forget to set picks before the first round of the playoffs…)

According to data from the game, here’s how readers did against the computer on wild-card weekend:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of wild-card weekend

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 18 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET PTS BAL 60% LAC 51% LAC 23, BAL 17 +17.0

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HOU 56 HOU 53 IND 21, HOU 7 +0.8

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CHI 61 CHI 65 PHI 16, CHI 15 -16.8

–

DAL 54 SEA 54 DAL 24, SEA 22 -22.5

–

Home teams are in bold.

The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Readers won big when the Chargers won on the road over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and the Colts’ win over the Texans was basically a wash (both the readers and Elo incorrectly picked Houston). But Elo took the weekend on the strength of the Eagles’ win over the Bears — the algorithm liked Philly slightly more than the readers — and especially the Cowboys’ victory over the Seahawks. Despite the game being in Dallas, the average reader assigned Seattle a 54 percent chance of winning, and that led to a massive loss of points after Michael Dickson’s weird onside kick attempt went awry. Elo has now beaten the average reader 17 times in 18 weeks this season.

Having said that, congrats are in order to Alex McQuillen and Ben Zornes, who currently lead all users in the postseason with 200.0 points apiece, and to Neil Mehta, who moved into first place for the season with 1,128.1 points. Thanks to everyone who has been playing — and the game isn’t over yet! You should keep making picks and trying your luck against Elo throughout the playoffs.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-divisional-playoffs-restore-order-to-the-nfl/

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The NFL is on the cusp of an enchanting marketing campaign. These are the individuals in and across the league who will drive the conversations of 2018.

Greater than 50 ESPN consultants voted on who would be the greatest NFL gamers this season. Sure, AB, Von and Gronk are ranked excessive. However two GOATs prepared the ground.

The Texans hardly ever drop passes. The Cowboys are improbable defending on first down. Here is the hidden energy of every NFL group.

1 Associated

They are not essentially probably the most expert or necessary gamers, coaches and executives, however for one motive or one other, I believe we’ll both be speaking about them or noticing how they affect the upcoming season. I’ve break up them into a number of unordered teams, beginning with the oldsters who’ve probably the most driving on the season.

Soar to a piece:

Group I: The Now-or-Nevers Group II: The Rookies (or Nearly Rookies) Group III: Acquainted Faces in New Locations Group IV: The Rehabilitation Tales Group V: The Breakout Stars Group VI: One Extra Trip Group VII: The Wild Playing cards Group VIII: The Ghost

Group I: The Now-or-Nevers

These are the individuals across the league who’ve extra to achieve or lose than simply about anybody else over the subsequent six months — for every kind of causes.

I believe we’re underrating Bell’s MVP (or Offensive Participant of the 12 months) probabilities heading into the season. For one, he has truly been wholesome for a lot of the previous two seasons beneath a heavy workload. Previous availability would not at all times point out future well being, however it’s a constructive signal for a participant whose solely weak spot appeared to be harm considerations. If he stays wholesome, we are able to really feel moderately assured Bell goes to select up one other 350-touch season given the shortage of a notable second again on the roster, Pittsburgh’s probabilities of profitable 10-plus video games, and the advancing age of 36-year-old quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Bell’s yards per carry dropped in 2017, however he remained environment friendly and posted a hit charge of 49 % as a runner. As I discussed earlier this offseason, Bell’s totals fell as a result of he did not rack up huge performs as a runner. He had eight runs of 30 yards or extra on 908 carries from 2013 to ’16. The Steelers handed Bell the rock 321 occasions final season and did not get a single run longer than 27 yards. Bell had three catches of 30 yards or extra, and historical past tells us that there is little motive to assume that Bell will not rack up just a few huge good points in 2018.

A wholesome Bell with a heavy workload and some extra huge performs ought to be sufficient to provide a profession yr. Working backs are at all times at an obstacle in opposition to quarterbacks in award races, however Bell may very well be uniquely positioned to exceed even lofty expectations in 2018.

Marcus Mariota has an entire new offensive system to be taught this season, because the Titans fired Mike Mularkey after the 2017 season. AP Photograph/Steven Senne

Within the paradox that was the 2017 Titans season, Mariota was a microcosm of Tennessee’s stunted progress. The previous second general choose produced his worst season as a professional and concurrently led the league with three fourth-quarter comeback victories and 4 game-winning drives within the fourth quarter or time beyond regulation. He turned the primary Titans quarterback to win a playoff sport since Steve McNair, however he struggled a lot in Mike Mularkey’s antiquated scheme that the Titans had little alternative however to fireside their coach.

If Mariota stays wholesome and succeeds in 2018 below the stewardship of former Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, all can be forgiven. If he struggles, although, the Titans may be a Ryan Tannehill-esque scenario. No person doubts that Mariota’s mobility, management and propensity for highlight-reel performs make him an excellent prospect, however after years of biking via coaches and schemes to attempt to match their quarterback, at what level is it extra in regards to the passer than the individuals round him? If Mariota would not flip into the participant we have been ready to see this season, there are going to be cheap considerations about his ceiling.

Winston produced the perfect four-game stretch of his profession after coming back from harm final season, a run through which he accomplished almost 72 % of his passes whereas averaging 9.three yards per try and throwing for eight touchdowns in opposition to two picks. He improved in nearly each statistical class I can discover and was higher than league common by the overwhelming majority of measures.

Invoice Barnwell breaks down the NFL like nobody else: • Might Watson, Wentz regress?» • Can Jimmy G actually save the Niners? » • Constructing the right 53-man roster » • Predicting which breakouts will stick » • Meet the NFL’s Eagles Copycat Membership » • 6 groups probably to enhance » • These 6 groups will possible win fewer video games » • All of the fallout from Rams’ spending spree » • Finest, worst offensive arsenals from 32-1 » Extra NFL protection »

We ought to be a possible Professional Bowl season for Winston. As an alternative, he’s suspended for 3 video games after allegedly groping an Uber driver in Arizona in March 2016. It is a essential yr for Winston’s growth, however that has far much less to do with what he does on the sphere than how he acts off of it. Can the Buccaneers justify giving an eight-figure contract to a quarterback who has repeatedly been accused of sexual misconduct and would not look like studying any classes? Ought to we even be asking the query?

Four. John Elway, GM, Broncos

It is unfathomable to counsel that Elway’s job may be on the road provided that he is a franchise icon and two years faraway from profitable Tremendous Bowl 50. However it’s tough to imagine simply how a lot has gone incorrect in Denver for the reason that group raised the Lombardi trophy. The Broncos weren’t capable of come to phrases on an extension with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who went to Los Angeles and turned across the Rams’ protection in a single day. Six of the 11 starters who suited up for the Broncos within the Tremendous Bowl win over the Panthers are now not on the roster, and the protection regressed and fell from first to 10th in DVOA final season.

Extra disconcerting, although, is Elway’s lack of ability to enhance the offense. He mishandled the C.J. Anderson scenario and was pressured to match an onerous supply sheet from the Dolphins for what ended up being two years of atypical play. The efforts to improve the offensive line in each the draft and free company have made little progress; the Broncos are about to chop Menelik Watson regardless of owing the previous Raiders proper sort out $5.5 million in assured base wage this season.

John Elway has a brand new quarterback in veteran Case Keenum, who acquired $25 million assured this offseason. David Zalubowski/AP Photograph

What’s most worrisome, although, is how the transition from Peyton Manning has not gone to plan. Elway prevented a landmine when the Broncos have been outbid for Brock Osweiler, who went to Houston, however the commerce as much as seize Paxton Lynch within the first spherical in 2016 seems to be a misstep. Lynch was terrible in 128 go makes an attempt over two seasons and may not make the roster after slipping behind seventh-rounder Chad Kelly. Now, it is going to be Case Keenum’s flip after the Broncos made a $25 million guess on the previous undrafted free agent maintaining his beautiful kind from Minnesota.

It is hardly as if Elway was on an island along with his selections, after all. The Texans wished Osweiler. The Cowboys have been furiously upset in regards to the Broncos beating them to the punch in buying and selling up for Lynch, and after the Raiders drafted fellow goal Connor Prepare dinner, Dallas was pressured to accept Dak Prescott. There wasn’t a lot chatter round Keenum earlier than he signed with the Broncos, however it’s not tough to imagine that he would have attracted critical cash on a one-year deal if the Broncos had gone in a special route.

A part of the equation with Elway, although, has at all times been the concept that his expertise as a participant gives a bonus over executives who have not gained video games on the sphere on the highest stage. To be truthful, Elway has been humble and hasn’t expressed that sentiment himself, however this can be a league through which each John Dorsey and Dave Gettleman have been out of a job right now final season. If every other basic supervisor pieced collectively a five-year stretch of first-round picks that included Sylvester Williams, Shane Ray, Lynch and Garett Bolles (and the helpful Bradley Roby), would not we be worrying about his future?

Since 1970, 318 quarterbacks have thrown 500 or extra passes in a season. Of these quarterbacks, simply three have posted a worse yards per try index (Y/A+) than Flacco did final season, when the Tremendous Bowl XLVII MVP averaged 5.eight yards per try in a league through which the typical go went for six.6 yards per throw. Flacco hasn’t posted a Y/A+ above the league common of 100 for the reason that 2012 season.

Since profitable the Tremendous Bowl within the 2012 season, Flacco has been certainly one of 19 passers to throw 2,000 or extra go makes an attempt. He is a middling 13th in completion share, and that is the intense spot. Flacco ranks final in yards per try, final in adjusted internet yards per try, 16th in interception charge, final in landing share, 18th in passer ranking and 15th in Whole QBR. If a productive preseason is an indication that Flacco is responding to the problem of first-round choose Lamar Jackson, that is nice. Only one query, although: What has he been ready for?

Listed below are Ansah’s sack totals after which the variety of sacks we might have anticipated for Ansah given his quarterback knockdown totals:

12 months Sacks Knockdowns Anticipated Sacks Distinction 2013 eight 11 5 three 2014 7.5 26 11.7 -Four.2 2015 14.5 34 15.three -Zero.eight 2016 2 15 6.eight -Four.eight 2017 12 17 7.7 Four.three Whole 44 103 46.Four -2.Four

He’s proper the place we might anticipate him to be over the course of his profession, however he has dramatically under- or over-performed his anticipated sack complete in 4 of his 5 professional seasons. That does not bode nicely for 2018, throughout which Ansah can be taking part in out his franchise tag below a brand new coach in Matt Patricia and defensive coordinator in Paul Pasqualoni. Since 2006, 55 pass-rushers have outperformed their anticipated sack complete by someplace between three.5 and Four.5 sacks, as was the case for Ansah final season. The next season, 42 of these 55 gamers declined, whereas simply 9 improved.

7. Norv Turner, offensive coordinator, Panthers

Panthers followers who have been deliriously excited in regards to the franchise transferring on from longtime offensive coordinator Mike Shula had about three days to have fun earlier than being puzzled by the rent of the 66-year-old Turner, who was simply over one yr faraway from leaving the Vikings in the course of a irritating season. Turner has had a powerful profession as an offensive coordinator, however after the Chargers completed fifth in offensive DVOA in 2011, his offenses have not ranked higher than 16th in offensive DVOA in any season.

As I discussed earlier this yr, Turner has by no means actually labored with a cell quarterback throughout his profession. Is that an excellent match for Cam Newton? Turner has constructed his offenses round attacking groups downfield, which is smart given Carolina’s offensive weapons however may not be an excellent match given this offensive line. The Panthers already are lacking star guard Andrew Norwell, who left for Jacksonville, and may very well be down each beginning tackles with Daryl Williams possible heading to injured reserve and Matt Kalil present process a knee scope. It looks like certainly one of three issues will occur: The Panthers make miracles occur with their backup offensive linemen; Turner adjustments his spots as an offensive coach after a long time within the NFL; or Cam Newton will get hit greater than every other quarterback within the league.

Blake Bortles completed the 2017 with a 55.6 Whole QBR, which ranked 12th within the league. Sam Greenwood/Getty Pictures

The most effective instance of the distinctive place Bortles occupies within the NFL world is that he’s a former No. three general choose who had a company store for items to make him look good every offseason whereas concurrently making excuses as he failed to enhance and but, nonetheless, Bortles manages to have a persecution complicated.

We all know the lows have been unhealthy for Bortles. Even the highs, although, have not been spectacular. I took every quarterback’s prime 16 begins by Whole QBR over the previous 5 seasons and mixed their numbers into what quantities to their best-case seasonal line. Of these 37 passers, Bortles’ greatest 16 video games mix to rank 35th in completion share, 26th in yards per try, 34th in interception charge and 29th in adjusted yards per try.

The most effective-case state of affairs is that we see extra of the Bortles who pieced collectively the perfect three-game stretch of his profession final December together with the man who subsequently held his personal in opposition to Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady within the playoffs. The worst case is that we get the Bortles who confirmed up in between the stretches, the man who threw 5 interceptions throughout three video games and have become the primary quarterback in almost twenty years to throw 20 passes in a playoff sport and win regardless of failing to make it to 100 passing yards. If which Bortles goes to point out up in 2018, we’re all ears.

9. Hue Jackson, coach, Browns

Allow us to all develop as much as have Jackson’s confidence. Few coaches maintain their jobs after a 1-15 season, though it could have been harsh to fireside Jackson amid Cleveland’s tanking efforts. Even fewer handle to carry onto the gig after a winless marketing campaign, when the Browns truly have been purported to be extra aggressive. Jackson was employed for his capacity to work with quarterbacks, however he spent 2017 destroying DeShone Kizer’s confidence earlier than letting the rookie flail on the sphere throughout a brutal season. Deposed basic supervisor Sashi Brown and analytics chief Paul DePodesta have taken the warmth for buying and selling away the choose the Eagles used on Carson Wentz, although Jackson did not need to use the second general choose on Wentz.

Brown actually had his personal points and possibly deserved to lose his job, however Jackson framing the Browns’ future as the best turnaround in sports activities historical past looks like a case of placing the cart earlier than the horse. On this case, the horse is one thing like “two wins in a season” or “dealing with a quarterback scenario successfully for a month at a time.” Jackson was keen to border himself as a traditionalist in distinction to Brown after the latter was fired and changed by John Dorsey, however the determination to play rookie Antonio Callaway into the fourth quarter of a preseason sport as a punishment was panned by ex-players. To maintain his job previous 2018, Jackson goes to need to decide on a narrative and an id. With first general choose Baker Mayfield within the fold, the time for excuses is up.

10. Steve Sarkisian, offensive coordinator, Falcons

I am not satisfied Sarkisian deserves wherever close to as a lot of the blame for what occurred with the Falcons’ offense final season. For one, the Falcons have been at all times going to say no from the file marks they put up in 2016, no matter whether or not former coordinator Kyle Shanahan caught round. The Falcons produced the perfect first-down offense in league historical past in 2016, and in 2017, they fell all the way in which to 3rd in yards per play and third in conversion charge on first downs. Their offensive line additionally stayed wholesome for 80 begins in 2016, which is nearly unimaginable to repeat (and out of any coordinator’s management).

The largest downside with the Falcons’ offense in 2017, as an alternative, was that it spent an excessive amount of time on the sidelines. Atlanta’s protection allowed extra performs per drive than every other group in soccer. The Falcons’ protection allowed the second-longest common drive by way of time of possession. It ranked 26th in turnover share.

Steve Sarkisian is again for 12 months 2 with the Falcons, who’ve stored the identical weapons. Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports activities

Because of this, the offense ran solely 157 significant possessions final season, the bottom mark within the league by 9 full possessions. The league common was 179 possessions. It is as if the Falcons simply punted on first down each drive for 2 video games of the season. Atlanta additionally confronted the league’s second-worst common beginning discipline place. With that, the Falcons then averaged the league’s second-most yards per drive and its seventh-most factors per drive. They completed ninth in offensive DVOA. The offense held up its finish of the discount.

These numbers aren’t going to placate Falcons followers, although, and Sarkisian may make for a handy scapegoat if the protection would not take that long-awaited huge step ahead. He should hope for a constructive regression to the imply within the purple zone from Julio Jones, who scored a scarcely plausible three touchdowns on 88 receptions a yr in the past. I think about Falcons followers might need some playcalling options for what to not do within the purple zone after final season’s goal-line stand in Philadelphia.

There aren’t many comparisons made between Newton and Andy Dalton. Rightfully so. I am making one right here as a result of each Newton and Dalton put collectively 2015 campaigns that seem like large outliers in context with the remainder of their careers. Dalton’s passer ranking falls between 80.Four and 91.eight in six of his seven seasons. In 2015, he posted a passer ranking of 106.2. Cam’s passer ranking stays inside a equally modest vary in 5 of his six campaigns, with a low of 75.eight and a excessive of 88.eight. Throughout his MVP season, the previous Auburn star made his method as much as a ranking of 99.Four.

Passer ranking should not inform the entire story for Newton given how a lot he gives as a runner, however you may perceive why there is a sense of frustration with Cam stagnating as a passer. After their try to alter the offense and cut back the workload on Newton failed final season, although, the Panthers punted on the concept and leaned even additional right into a downfield passing assault by hiring Norv Turner to function offensive coordinator. It will be silly for the Panthers to place Newton on the recent seat given how productive he has been earlier than turning 30, however it’s additionally truthful to wonder if the MVP is popping out to play once more anytime quickly.

12. Adam Gase, coach, Dolphins

It took one yr for Gase to morph from darling younger coach right into a pissed off, probably overmatched chief. This time final yr, Dolphins staffers have been someway predicting breakout seasons for nearly each certainly one of Miami’s weapons. The breakouts did not come. Jay Ajayi was traded in an try to repair the group tradition, just for the Eagles to win a Tremendous Bowl with him within the lineup. DeVante Parker was hardly ever wholesome. Kenny Stills’ landing share regressed towards the imply. The much-ballyhooed reunions of Gase with Jay Cutler and Julius Thomas ended with each gamers retiring; Thomas to get his Ph.D., Cutler to function the languid, curious muse of a actuality present.

The Dolphins as an alternative structured this offseason round rebuilding their tradition, changing Jarvis Landry and Ndamukong Suh with Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson and Robert Quinn. The issue is that the tradition woes in Miami stretch past the 2017 group and even Gase’s tenure with the group. The Dolphins do not function in the true world. It is a group that may’t afford to make Suh the highest-paid defender within the league and does so anyway, drastically restructures the deal to liberate cap room, then cuts him to herald the subsequent big-name participant whereas patting themselves on the again for dumping their most proficient defender. If Gase can overcome that, he is a good higher coach than the man we have been impressed with after 2016.

UPDATE: The Jets have been, in reality, capable of procure a invaluable choose for his or her $500,000 funding in Bridgewater when the Saints despatched their 2019 third-round choice for the previous Vikings starter and a sixth-round choose. It is an excellent transfer for the Jets, who principally purchased a top-level compensation choose with out having to pay Bridgewater his base wage. It is a curious transfer within the brief time period for the Saints, but when Bridgewater wished to discover a long-term dwelling, it is laborious to discover a higher location for the 25-year-old than Sean Payton’s offense in New Orleans.

A league continually decrying the shortage of helpful quarterbacks did not worth Bridgewater this offseason; whereas veterans corresponding to Mike Glennon and Chase Daniel have been capable of signal multimillion-dollar offers, Bridgewater’s one-year deal assured him solely $500,000 at signing. It appeared like a logical touchdown spot for Bridgewater provided that he can be competing with injury-prone veteran Josh McCown, just for the Jets to commerce up and seize Sam Darnold within the draft, pushing again Bridgewater into the No. three function.

Darnold appears more likely to begin Week 1, which leaves each the Jets and Bridgewater in a quandary. Each Bridgewater and McCown have $5 million base salaries, however whereas McCown’s cash is assured, Bridgewater’s is just not. The Jets additionally worth McCown as an on-field coach for Darnold. There’s not an apparent match on the roster for Bridgewater, although he has appeared spectacular in the course of the preseason.

Teddy Bridgewater will possible enter the season because the Jets’ third quarterback, however an harm might see him traded elsewhere. Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports activities

Carrying Bridgewater’s $5 million base wage within the hopes of basically shopping for a compensatory choose additionally would not make sense. The league is not going to out of the blue worth Bridgewater at $16 million per yr if he sits behind Darnold. If he will get backup cash on the free-agent market in 2019, Bridgewater would qualify for a draft choose solely within the sixth or seventh spherical. Even that will require the Jets to largely sit out free company, one thing they have not accomplished below GM Mike Maccagnan (and should not do as they construct their offense round Darnold).

The probably state of affairs is that the Jets both reduce Bridgewater or commerce him for a conditional choose. The Jets can hope to get a second- or a third-round choose, however they’ve little leverage in maintaining Bridgewater and are not more likely to discover a determined group available on the market. The comparisons to Sam Bradford do not match; the Vikings have been a singular match by way of a group anticipating to be very aggressive, and the Eagles had a quarterback who the league continues to worth as a starter.

Whereas there have been people clamoring for the Jaguars to accumulate Bridgewater — and a swap of Bridgewater and a choose for Dante Fowler would make sense for each side — Tyrod Taylor can be a significantly better match for the Jags and their need to carry onto the soccer and defend discipline place. Bridgewater stays a helpful participant and deserves an opportunity to start out someplace, however that chance in all probability will not come till 2019.

Groups do not usually wait this lengthy to signal true franchise gamers, as we’re seeing from the opposite stars on this draft class. Mike Evans signed an extension over the summer season, whereas Odell Beckham Jr. simply signed an extension. Aaron Donald is near signing his deal. It is somewhat little bit of a shock that Mack is not but signed, however it’s much more disconcerting that the Raiders do not even look like near a take care of their star pass-rusher.

Do the Raiders actually assume Mack is not price Donald-level cash? Would they realistically commerce their star pass-rusher with no apparent alternative for Mack left on the roster? It is tough to fathom, partly as a result of 27-year-old famous person edge rushers do not usually come obtainable. Whichever group acquires Mack can be instantly paying him an enormous contract, which would scale back his commerce worth to some extent through which it is tough to think about the Raiders getting a return they may promote to their followers as viable.

The probably state of affairs continues to be that the Raiders and Mack discover widespread floor and work their method right into a deal. Oakland might nonetheless franchise Mack in 2019 at a defensible worth, leaving it with one other yr to barter. On the similar time, although, it isn’t as if Mack’s worth is about to come back down. The earlier the Raiders make this transfer would be the higher.

15. David Culley, quarterbacks coach, Payments

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It is potential that Culley is extraordinarily well-qualified to teach new Payments quarterback Josh Allen, for whom the group traded draft capital in extra of the primary general choose to maneuver up in April. Culley takes the stance that teaching is teaching no matter place, and as a 62-year-old coming into his 40th yr on the job, you observed he is aware of a factor or two.

On the similar time, although, what number of groups do you see handing the quarterback teaching duties to a man whose résumé at that particular job has a 30-year hole? The final quarterback Culley instantly tutored earlier than taking on as Payments quarterbacks coach in 2017 was future NFL operating again Brian Mitchell at Southwestern Louisiana within the mid-1980s. Culley labored largely as a receivers coach over the following a long time, however the early returns from 2017 weren’t very thrilling. Tyrod Taylor had his worst season as a Payments starter, and Nathan Peterman … nicely, what occurred. Culley deserves his likelihood to mildew Allen, but when issues go poorly, who do you assume goes to take the blame?

Group II: The Rookies (or Nearly Rookies)

Listed below are the oldsters who’re both debuting or virtually debuting on the nationwide stage this upcoming season.

When the Chiefs traded as much as seize the highest man on their draft board in 2017, they sealed Alex Smith’s destiny. What occurred subsequent couldn’t — and didn’t — alter the plan. Smith produced the perfect season of his profession and led the league in passer ranking. The Chiefs fired the final supervisor who drafted Mahomes and misplaced a lot of their offensive brainpower when Matt Nagy left for the Bears. Regardless of. The Chiefs drafted Mahomes in 2017 to start out in Week 1 of 2018. We’re about to get there.

Patrick Mahomes, who takes over for Alex Smith this season, threw for 284 yards and had an interception in his lone begin in 2017. AP Photograph/Charlie Riedel

Organizations do not do that fairly often, partly as a result of it is tough to be spoiled for alternative with quarterbacks. Groups peck and claw and keep up at night time dreaming about getting somebody like Smith, who nearly by no means throws his group out of a sport and will get them again into it extra usually than the general public thinks. Think about a group just like the Browns or the Jets being pissed off by a quarterback whose purported ceiling is 10 wins and a playoff loss. It is soccer privilege to shoot for a greater quarterback than Smith, even given Smith’s age (34) and cap quantity.

Groups have changed their sitting Professional Bowl starter with an inexperienced backup for harm causes, after all, however there aren’t many current examples of a group willingly buying and selling or permitting a Professional Bowl passer to depart in the course of the offseason whereas changing them with a first-round choose sans monitor file.

You bear in mind probably the most well-known instance, after all. The Packers traded Brett Favre after he retired and un-retired in the summertime of 2007 to show issues over to Aaron Rodgers, who had thrown 59 profession passes with a passer ranking of 73.three. It labored out advantageous. Drew Brees truly tore his labrum in Week 17 of the 2005 marketing campaign and would have possible made the Professional Bowl, however the Chargers sealed his destiny beforehand by utilizing their 2004 first-round choose on Eli Manning and subsequently buying and selling for Philip Rivers.

The opposite current instance, maybe not coincidentally, includes Andy Reid. The Eagles traded away Donovan McNabb after their longtime starter made it to the Professional Bowl and led the Eagles to the playoffs in 2009. McNabb was about to enter his age-34 season and had two years and $19.2 million in unguaranteed cash left on his contract, however the Eagles did not have the kind of clear succession path the Chiefs have with Mahomes.

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Matthew Berry, Subject Yates and Stephania Bell talk about Patrick Mahomes’ outlook after the Chiefs’ preseason sport in opposition to the Falcons.

Philly’s plan was to show the job over to Kevin Kolb. Their 2007 second-round choose had thrown seven interceptions in 130 go makes an attempt over two seasons, however he had been a wildly correct quarterback in school and accomplished 64.6 % of his passes over a 96-throw marketing campaign whereas filling in for McNabb in 2009.

Issues went awry nearly instantly. Kolb went down with a concussion after throwing 10 passes within the opener in opposition to the Packers, an harm that will sadly crop up repeatedly all through his profession. Reid was pressured to show issues over to Michael Vick, who had spent two years in jail earlier than throwing 13 passes as Philadelphia’s third-string quarterback in 2009. Vick excelled as Kolb’s alternative and was named the starter after Week 2.

There is no Vick lurking on the roster for the Chiefs, who must flip issues over to Chad Henne or Matt McGloin if Mahomes acquired harm. The 2010 Eagles season reminds us of two truths about quarterbacks, which apply to those Chiefs. One is that we do not know whether or not a quarterback can keep wholesome on the NFL stage till he has truly pulled it off. The opposite is that Andy Reid can certain coach quarterbacks.

Does any rookie operating again in current reminiscence come into the league below extra stress than the previous Penn State star? Ezekiel Elliott was drafted almost as excessive, however he was coming into a scenario with an excellent offensive line on a group that had run the ball nicely in earlier seasons. Leonard Fournette and Trent Richardson have been becoming a member of groups with low expectations, though the Jaguars rapidly exceeded theirs with Fournette’s assist.

Barkley, the highest-drafted operating again since Reggie Bush in 2006, has to single-handedly rescue a moribund Giants operating sport. He will not have the offensive line, provided that the transfer to swap Weston Richburg and Justin Pugh for Nate Solder and Patrick Omameh may not be an improve. (The Giants used a second-round choose on guard Will Hernandez, however because the Ereck Flowers saga will let you know, utilizing a excessive choose on a lineman is not any assure of success.) New York is concurrently relying on Barkley to take among the load off Eli Manning and prolong the longtime quarterback’s profession within the course of. It is lots to ask of a 21-year-old rookie, however Barkley may very nicely be as much as the duty.

The largest shock from the 2017 Eagles roster was … OK, it was Nelson Agholor. The second-biggest shock on the roster was Patrick Robinson, who was reduce after one season with the Colts and signed with the Eagles for simply $775,000. Robinson promptly changed into among the best slot cornerbacks within the league, giving the Eagles an enormous benefit at what turned near a beginning function. He knocked away 18 passes, which tied the previous Saints first-round choose for the sixth most in soccer. Robinson promptly returned to New Orleans on a four-year, $20 million deal this offseason.

Enter Jones, who tore his Achilles and fell to the Eagles in the course of the second spherical in final yr’s draft. Jones basically took 2017 as a redshirt yr, however with Robinson leaving, the Washington product can be taking on within the lineup as Philadelphia’s slot cornerback. The Eagles can nonetheless survive if Jones struggles, however a profitable sophomore marketing campaign from Jones would reinforce Philadelphia’s present plan below Howie Roseman. If they’ll get cornerbacks like Jones to provide on a budget, they’ll proceed to spend cash on the line of scrimmage and lock up weapons for Wentz. If they cannot, you may check out the Seahawks roster for what occurs whenever you attempt to make investments in all places.

First-year head coach Matt Nagy has significantly better weapons on offense, because the Bears added Allen Robinson, Trey Burton and others in free company. Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports activities

19. Matt Nagy, coach, Bears

When groups fireplace their head coach, they usually substitute that coach with somebody who represents the polar reverse of their deposed chief. It is no shock, then, that the Bears changed 63-year-old defensive stalwart John Fox with 40-year-old Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Fox has 16 years of head-coaching expertise; Nagy has 10 years of teaching expertise in complete, having been elevated to the offensive coordinator’s function in Kansas Metropolis after Doug Pederson left for the Eagles.

Bears followers understandably need to give Nagy the credit score for the Chiefs blowing groups away on offense with a contemporary assault in the course of the first two months of the 2018 season, however he may additionally deserve among the blame for that very same offense stagnating throughout a four-game midseason dropping streak. Nagy took over as playcaller from Reid in December and helped encourage a return to kind, however even after the Chiefs averaged 28.6 factors per sport over the ultimate 5 contests and dropped 21 factors on the Titans within the first half of their wild-card sport, Reid appeared to be the one blamed when the Chiefs went scoreless and appeared to overlook about Kareem Hunt within the second half of their crushing loss.

If every little thing goes proper, the Bears may very well be one of many league’s most entertaining offenses. The mix of Nagy, Brad Childress and former Oregon coach Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator provides the Bears the chance to get forward of the curve on offense as professional groups bravely start to go the place school offenses have been seven or eight years in the past. The educational curve in going from the vastly skilled Alex Smith (who has thrown precisely 5,200 passes on the school and professional stage) to Mitchell Trubisky (who is available in at 902 makes an attempt) might restrict what Nagy can implement in 12 months 1.

The Steelers have not actually discovered a alternative for Troy Polamalu for the reason that future Corridor of Famer light after 30 and retired in 2015. Their protection took a step ahead final season, solely to regress after star linebacker Ryan Shazier suffered a career-threatening spinal harm, permitting a median of 28 factors per sport.

Whereas Pittsburgh did not purchase a direct alternative for Shazier this offseason, their greatest resolution could also be to get artistic. New security Morgan Burnett performed some linebacker in Inexperienced Bay and will characteristic there on passing downs. Edmunds, then again, may play somewhat little bit of every little thing. The primary-round choose from Virginia Tech will in all probability start the season as a part-time sturdy security, however by the tip of the yr, it would not be a shock to see Edmunds taking part in every little thing from security to linebacker to fit cornerback. If he could make a fast adjustment to the professional sport, the Steelers can have a Swiss military knife able to filling within the weakest spot of their lineup from snap to snap. They may even have somebody able to competing athletically with Steelers killer Rob Gronkowski, who has racked up 664 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in six profession video games in opposition to Pittsburgh.

Seahawks rookie Michael Dickson gained the Ray Man Award at Texas in 2017. AP Photograph/John Amis

There’s one thing somewhat unhappy about Seahawks followers who as soon as bragged about arguably the perfect roster in soccer pinning their hopes on a rookie punter, however Dickson has comfortably been the perfect punter in soccer in the course of the preseason. He’s averaging 48.1 internet yards per punt, almost three yards higher than every other punter and three.5 yards forward of Brett Kern’s league-leading 44.6-yard mark from a yr in the past. It is a small pattern, after all, however the NFL has preseason punting knowledge going again via 2000, and no qualifying punter has even hit 47 internet yards per punt. Ensure that to cite this preseason punting statistic at your Labor Day social gathering if you wish to be left alone for some time.

One query, although: If Dickson is basically good in the course of the common season, would he be a candidate for Offensive Rookie of the 12 months or Defensive Rookie of the 12 months? Might he encourage the league to create a Particular Groups Rookie of the 12 months award? And should not there be a Particular Groups Participant of the 12 months award already?

Group III: Acquainted Faces in New Locations

How will these names we already know fare in new digs?

Probably the most believable state of affairs for the 2018 Vikings, sadly, is that they do not want for causes nearly completely unrelated to Cousins, just for their $28 million quarterback to take the blame. Cousins cannot management how wholesome the Vikings can be on protection or whether or not Aaron Rodgers can be within the lineup for multiple quarter of the 2 Packers-Vikings video games. He additionally has no management over his personal offensive line staying wholesome, though the problem plagued Cousins’ ultimate season in Washington and appears to have adopted him to Minneapolis earlier than the season has even begun.

The scary factor is that the one method for Cousins to essentially dwell as much as this deal, given how good the Vikings have been a yr in the past, is to make it to the Tremendous Bowl. Something much less and there can be a portion of the viewers stating that they may have stored Case Keenum (or Teddy Bridgewater) at a fraction of Cousins’ price ticket whereas utilizing the financial savings so as to add an affect participant at one other place of want, no matter how efficient Cousins performs. Is that this truthful? Completely not.

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Subject Yates sees Kirk Cousins as a top-10 fantasy quarterback this season resulting from an improved receiving group with the Vikings in comparison with his Redskins days.

23. Jon Gruden, coach, Raiders

The league’s largest thriller is what we’ll see from the Raiders’ offense in Week 1. Gruden’s offseason strikes as shadow basic supervisor have not been inspiring, which is no surprise given his monitor file with personnel in Tampa Bay. It is also truthful to notice that there is nonetheless loads of expertise on the offensive aspect of the ball in Oakland, because the Raiders are solely two years faraway from trying fairly aggressive offensively below Invoice Musgrave.

What must you anticipate? Tempo, at the least on a selective foundation. Gruden goes to attempt to make Derek Carr’s life simpler by giving him less complicated reads and controlling the protection’s capacity to make changes, in a lot the identical method Sean McVay has in Los Angeles. It is laborious to think about that Gruden will get too far-off from the West Coast offense he grew up in throughout his time with the 49ers and Eagles, though it would not be a shock to see him add some tags to his core operating performs to present Carr the choice to throw a display or a fast hitch to Amari Cooper. I might additionally anticipate rising pains for each coach and quarterback alike. Gruden is starting a 10-year, $100 million contract. Endurance may be crucial advantage for the brand new Raiders.

The checklist of unheralded, cheap backs who made their names in offenses led by a Shanahan goes again greater than 20 years. It begins with Terrell Davis after which runs via Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Reuben Droughns below Mike Shanahan in Denver. Clinton Portis was a late second-round choose, then the Broncos traded him earlier than he acquired costly in a deal for Champ Bailey and second-round choose Tatum Bell, who briefly adopted in Portis’ footsteps as a starter. The Broncos gave Davis an enormous extension in 1998, however accidents restricted him to part-time work after that season. The one different operating again the Broncos paid up for was Travis Henry, who was ineffective earlier than his profession fell aside resulting from off-field considerations.

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In Houston, in the meantime, Gary Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan acquired strong numbers from rookie third-rounder Steve Slaton for a yr earlier than the West Virginia again struggled in 2009. Shanahan left after that season, with Kubiak subsequently turning issues over to second-year again Arian Foster, who rapidly emerged from relative obscurity as an undrafted free agent into the league’s most efficient runner.

Shanahan went to affix his dad in Washington, the place former Broncos backup Ryan Torain produced a helpful season in 2010. By 2012, Washington turned issues over to rookie sixth-rounder Alfred Morris, who racked up 1,613 yards and 13 scores as a rookie and adopted it up with a 1,275-yard season earlier than the Shanahans each left city. Kyle could not coax a lot out of the Cleveland speeding assault in 2014, however after he arrived in Atlanta, Shanahan turned midround picks Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman into one of many league’s most fearsome one-two punches.

The 49ers assured McKinnon almost $12 million this offseason.

New signing Malcolm Butler is anticipated to be the Titans’ prime nook this season. Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports activities

Given the occasions of Tremendous Bowl LII, Butler actually could not have had a greater offseason. The Patriots took loads of criticism for benching the Tremendous Bowl XLIX hero in a sport through which their cornerbacks could not maintain up in protection. Butler might need been pressured to accept a one-year deal if groups had questions on what Invoice Belichick noticed, however as an alternative, he discovered a five-year, $61.three million contract that does not actually signify any kind of low cost from what he would have gotten had Butler been anonymously advantageous within the Tremendous Bowl. He additionally landed in a snug spot, taking part in for a pair of ex-Patriots in Mike Vrabel and Dean Pees below former New England govt Jon Robinson in Tennessee.

Should you look backward previous the Tremendous Bowl, although, 2017 was a wildly inconsistent yr for Butler. He struggled all season, and whereas Stephon Gilmore drew a lot of the consideration for giving up huge performs early within the season, Butler was the nook groups have been selecting on by the point the second half arrived. Soccer Outsiders notes that Butler allowed 9.1 adjusted yards per go, which ranked 69th amongst qualifying cornerbacks. Cornerback statistics may be guesswork, however Butler did not look good on movie, both. He has to bounce again from one thing greater than the Tremendous Bowl benching in 2018.

Smith has spent the previous seven years within the protecting cocoon of quarterback gurus Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid, and the checklist of quarterbacks who’ve light after parting methods with their coach is appreciable. Colin Kaepernick, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick all regressed after their spell below Harbaugh and Reid, and whilst you may argue that they have been hit by both accidents or the getting old curve, Smith is 34.

The most effective argument in opposition to Smith following of their footsteps is the 2017 season through which Smith leveled up and eventually added to his capacity to keep away from takeaways by making performs downfield. In Washington, Smith can have his beneath weapons in slot receiver Jamison Crowder and halfback Chris Thompson, however his capacity to make one thing out of former first-round choose Josh Doctson and costly free agent Paul Richardson downfield may be the distinction between Smith dwelling as much as expectations as Kirk Cousins’ alternative.

Jay Gruden additionally has lots driving on Smith. It has been two years since Washington made the playoffs, and no coach has gone three years with out making the playoffs below Daniel Snyder whereas managing to maintain their job for a fourth yr. Cousins broke out below Gruden, however it’s truthful to say good quantity of the credit score for that breakout goes to Sean McVay. Andy Dalton’s standout season did not come till 2015, two years after Gruden left Cincinnati. If Smith out of the blue declines below his new coach, Gruden may be the one taking each the blame and the autumn.

Group IV: The Rehabilitation Tales

These gamers are bodily or mentally rehabbing after traumatic ends to their 2017.

It ought to be telling that after two years basically misplaced within the harm wilderness, Watt continues to be the favourite to win Defensive Participant of the 12 months. As tempting as it’s to check Aaron Donald to Watt after the Rams star emerged in Watt’s absence, think about that Donald racked up 19 sacks and 58 knockdowns over the previous two seasons. These are unimaginable numbers, however Watt managed to generate 20.5 sacks and 51 knockdowns in 2014 alone. Over a four-year stretch from 2012-15, Watt averaged — averaged — greater than 17 sacks and 47 knockdowns per season. No person within the NFL has topped 33 knockdowns in both of the previous two seasons. A wholesome Watt is sui generis.

Future Corridor of Famer J.J. Watt says he is absolutely wholesome, however can he return to his pre-2015 kind? AP Photograph/David J. Phillip

After all, it is unclear whether or not we’ll ever see that model of Watt once more. Watt broke down in 2016 and underwent again surgical procedure, and whereas he mentioned all the proper issues about feeling improbable and raring to go this time final yr, he racked up simply 5 knockdowns with out a sack in 4 video games earlier than breaking his leg. The Texans do not essentially want the previous Watt to be aggressive on protection so long as Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are round, but when they get again the Deshaun Watson we noticed in 2017 and the Watt from 2015, they’re Tremendous Bowl contenders.

I needn’t let you know about Rodgers. Should you’ve forgotten, watch this:

Does anyone have extra driving on the 2018 season than Arizona’s star operating again? If we see a repeat of the 2016 season, when Johnson had a reputable case as the perfect operating again in soccer, he ought to problem for a Todd Gurley-sized contract with $50 million or so in new cash. If we see a repeat of Johnson’s 2017 season — which lasted all of three quarters earlier than Johnson dislocated his wrist — he is in all probability a one-year, prove-it deal earlier than hitting free company once more in 2019.

Clearly, it could be actually terrible to see Johnson go down in the course of the season opener once more. The excellent news is that the harm wasn’t to a knee or ankle, however Johnson did sprain his MCL in Week 17 of that 2016 marketing campaign. He additionally looks like a logical match for brand new Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, who coaxed the 2 largest receiving seasons of Danny Woodhead’s profession out of the scatback throughout their time in San Diego.

Listed below are the 15 energetic quarterbacks who’ve thrown probably the most passes within the NFL since Luck joined the league in 2012, sorted by the distinction between their school and professional completion share:

The 2 outliers on the unfavorable aspect are Cam Newton (who threw solely 292 passes on the prime stage in school whereas taking part in in a ramification scheme below Gus Malzahn) and Luck, who threw greater than 1,000 passes throughout his time at Stanford, most of which got here below Jim Harbaugh.

Completion share by no means tells the entire story, however Luck nonetheless hasn’t had that MVP-caliber season since becoming a member of the league. The closest he got here was 2014, when he threw 40 landing passes and ran for 3 extra, however even that was extra a few dismal Indianapolis speeding assault than anything. Trent Richardson & Co. scored on simply 22.2 % of their tries inside the within the 5-yard line, the third-worst charge within the league that season. The following yr, Indy was even worse, falling to 14.three % on these runs. That was the fourth-worst charge of the previous decade.

No person would argue that the Colts are worse off with the return of Luck, however as we fret in regards to the former first general choose returning to his previous kind, is it truthful to wonder if there’s ever going to be one other gear for the perfect quarterback prospect of his era? Luck admittedly hasn’t had a lot assist up entrance, so a wholesome and efficient offensive line may unlock the MVP candidate ready to get out.

I really feel assured that no person on the planet is trying ahead to Week 1 of the NFL season greater than Williams, who will get an opportunity to atone for his main function within the disastrous finish to the Saints-Vikings playoff encounter from final season. What was forgotten in mild of what occurred is simply how spectacular Williams was throughout his rookie marketing campaign. Marshon Lattimore took a lot of the consideration and was transformative for the Saints’ protection, however Williams completed his with 4 picks and added a fifth earlier within the Vikings sport. One on-field mistake should not outline a profession. Everybody across the league ought to be rooting for the 21-year-old to return to kind this upcoming season.

I wrote about Watson earlier this month in context with Carson Wentz, however Watson is additional forward in his rehabilitation and a lock to start out Week 1. Skeptics need to examine Watson to Robert Griffin III by way of rookie quarterbacks who succeeded in offenses with school thrives earlier than struggling after knee accidents, however Watson wasn’t wherever close to as reliant on his legs final season as Griffin was throughout that fateful rookie marketing campaign. Then again, Watson may additionally be caught behind the worst offensive line in soccer. These legs might turn out to be useful.

Group V: The Breakout Stars of 2017 (and 2018)

Can the standouts of 2017 maintain onto their good points in 2018? And might the gamers who impressed beneath the radar final season take a good larger step towards stardom this yr?

Misplaced within the chatter about how the Browns foolishly traded away the choose the Texans used on Deshaun Watson is that they nonetheless might need ended up with the perfect participant within the 2017 draft. Garrett actually performed solely about 10½ video games throughout his rookie season, however throughout 500 defensive snaps, the primary general choose racked up seven sacks and 18 quarterback knockdowns. Prorate these numbers over a full season and also you’re trying roughly at what Melvin Ingram (10.5 sacks, 25 knockdowns) did throughout his 2017 marketing campaign, and Garrett did not have Joey Bosa to distract groups on the opposite aspect of the sphere. The comparisons between the Browns and the 76ers are realistically too simplistic, however if you wish to make them, Garrett is Cleveland’s Joel Embiid.

Jimmy Garoppolo has by no means misplaced as an NFL beginning quarterback, profitable all seven video games. AP Photograph/Michael Conroy

I wrote all about Garoppolo’s 2018 season to come back earlier in August.

Ramsey may not be the perfect cornerback in soccer. He may not even be the perfect cornerback on his personal group when you think about how good A.J. Bouye was final season. He is rattling good proper now, although, and you’d be a idiot to guess in opposition to the 23-year-old persevering with to enhance. There have been few complaints about Ramsey popping out of Florida State, however the scouting studies instructed Ramsey misplaced a little bit of his on-field fireplace throughout his ultimate yr in school. Three weeks into his NFL profession, Ramsey was calling out Steve Smith. There have been considerations about Ramsey as a playmaker provided that he completed his school profession with simply three interceptions. He racked up 4 interceptions final season. Because the wildly entertaining face of the league’s greatest protection, Ramsey is the subsequent Richard Sherman. Together with his capacity to maneuver across the formation and canopy any receiver at any time, it may be extra applicable to name him the primary Jalen Ramsey.

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The primary group in NFL historical past to amass 600 yards from scrimmage in a sport and lose was the Patriots in Tremendous Bowl LII, the final significant skilled soccer sport you watched. You lose a sport through which your offense marches up and down the sphere for certainly one of two causes. One is that the offense turns the ball over a bunch of occasions, which the Patriots did not do. The opposite is that your protection cannot get off the sphere. Invoice Belichick’s protection pressured Nick Foles into an interception on the 2-yard line, however it in any other case allowed the Eagles to attain on eight of 9 drives. New England didn’t sack Foles even as soon as on 43 dropbacks. A protection that completed the season ranked 31st in DVOA performed proper about that stage on the largest stage.

The Patriots spent the offseason making an attempt to repair that by including depth for the entrance seven, signing Adrian Clayborn and buying and selling for Danny Shelton. They will get again playoff hero Dont’a Hightower and possibly have sufficient on the sting to maneuver him again to inside linebacker. The man who might make the largest distinction, although, is Flowers. The previous midround choose racked up 25 knockdowns final season and added 9 extra in the course of the postseason, three greater than every other participant. The 25-hit complete often quantities to a complete of simply over 11 sacks in a given marketing campaign, however Flowers completed his season with simply 6.5 sacks, which was the sixth-largest hole in soccer. He is both a budding star or already a secret one.

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Mike Greenberg would not guess on New England or Philadelphia to make it again to the Tremendous Bowl this season.

37. Doug Pederson, coach, Eagles

What do you do for a follow-up after taking your group from worst to first and profitable a Tremendous Bowl? The league has watched what Pederson has accomplished in Philadelphia and brought from his bounty; the Eagles misplaced offensive coordinator Frank Reich to the Colts and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to the Vikings, with the Eagles selling Mike Groh and Press Taylor from inside to take their locations.

Groups additionally will discover what Pederson did on his approach to the Tremendous Bowl, however I am not as assured they will emulate his aggressiveness. When Ron Rivera morphed into Riverboat Ron in 2013 and out of the blue acquired aggressive on fourth downs, no person else within the league got here out and adopted. (Rivera himself hasn’t actually been very aggressive since, to be sincere.) The league as an entire is transferring slowly towards going for it extra ceaselessly in tight conditions, however no group transformed extra on fourth down than the 2017 Eagles.

Pederson has a aggressive benefit; to maintain that benefit up, he may need to lean additional into these tendencies. The Philadelphia offense was a multitude with Nick Foles earlier than Pederson started to focus extra on RPOs; with Pederson extra open-minded about borrowing school ideas than most different coaches, he has the chance to remain forward of the curve by mixing in additional of them for each Foles and Carson Wentz this season. And whereas Wentz is not more likely to run the ball as ceaselessly on fourth downs after his knee harm, the Eagles ought to keep forward of the pack on fourth down by threatening groups with their offense.

Marvin Lewis has a sample with regards to cornerbacks. He likes drafting them within the first spherical. He likes sitting them for some time or giving them restricted snaps. Ultimately, they break via and very often achieve doing so. (You may discover this pattern additionally popping up in Minnesota below former Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.)

Jackson may make Lewis speed up his cornerback curve. After the 2016 first-round choose missed his complete rookie season with a torn pectoral muscle, Jackson muscled his method into the lineup final season and instantly emerged as Cincinnati’s prime cornerback. The Soccer Outsiders Almanac notes that Jackson was focused solely 41 occasions however managed to knock away 15 passes, which led the Bengals. Once you handle to carry Antonio Brown to zero catches throughout two video games, you are doing one thing proper.

The Houston product completed 2017 with solely 5 begins, however now that Adam Jones has moved on, Jackson has to tackle a starring function. Dre Kirkpatrick has been inconsistent over the previous couple of seasons, however the Bengals have a beginning cornerback duo with as a lot upside as any within the league.

Grady Jarrett had three sacks in Tremendous Bowl LI, however he solely had 4 all of final season. Jamie Squire/Getty Pictures

We’re nonetheless ready for the Falcons’ regular-season protection to dwell as much as the one we have seen within the postseason. The 2016 Falcons completed 26th in defensive DVOA, solely to dominate the Seahawks’ and Packers’ offenses earlier than shutting down the Patriots for a lot of the Tremendous Bowl (after which letting up below the pressure of a historic workload). The Atlanta protection acquired its greatest participant (cornerback Desmond Trufant) again for 2017, however it improved solely to 22nd in defensive DVOA. But once more, although, the playoff version of Dan Quinn’s protection held the Rams to 13 factors and the Eagles to 15, which is much more spectacular whenever you keep in mind that Philly would rating 79 factors over the 2 ensuing video games.

The protection is one thing lower than the sum of some spectacular components. The man who may have the ability to make the distinction is Jarrett, who had three sacks within the Tremendous Bowl loss to the Patriots and dominated for stretches in 2017, however completed the season with solely 4 sacks and 13 hurries. These are good numbers, but when Vic Beasley Jr. returns to kind as a full-time defensive finish and Jarrett provides to his dominance as a run defender by chipping in additional as a secondary pass-rusher, the Falcons might unlock their playoff code.

40. Sean McVay, coach, Rams

In 12 months 1 as coach of the Rams, McVay was blessed with good well being. The Rams’ offense suffered from the fewest adjusted video games misplaced within the league in 2017, as Los Angeles’ offensive starters mixed to overlook extra video games by sitting out a meaningless matchup in Week 17 than they did resulting from harm over the earlier 16 weeks.

Well being is not every little thing — the Rams additionally ranked because the league’s healthiest offense by AGL in 2016, too — however the user-friendly marketing campaign allowed McVay to have the most important potential affect throughout his debut marketing campaign. This was and stays a top-heavy Rams offense. Each group would endure by dropping their beginning quarterback, however the Rams have solely Sean Mannion and Brandon Allen in reserve behind Jared Goff. Their prime again behind Todd Gurley is Malcolm Brown, who has averaged simply three.6 yards per carry as a professional. Rookies would possible be the primary gamers off the bench if Andrew Whitworth have been injured at left sort out. McVay has already proved that he is a very good coach, however he will get an opportunity to see how he improvises in 2018.

DeForest Buckner had a stellar 2017 season, even when it did not present up within the statsheet. AP Photograph/David J. Phillip

If the 49ers need to make a transfer to the highest of the NFC West and into the postseason, it’s going to be much less about Jimmy Garoppolo and extra in regards to the protection. Robert Saleh’s bunch can name on as many 5 first-round picks on protection, however none of them has proven as a lot promise because the third general choose of the 2016 draft.

Buckner was drafted with the hopes that he would flip right into a younger Calais Campbell, and whereas the transformation is not but full, the Oregon product is additional alongside the way in which than most understand. The 24-year-old Buckner racked up solely three sacks final season, however these takedowns got here amid 22 quarterback hits, a determine which topped that of stars corresponding to Joey Bosa and Jadeveon Clowney. Twenty-two hits would usually generate about 10 sacks in a season, and the overwhelming majority of gamers who underperform their sack complete by as a lot as Buckner a yr in the past enhance their totals the next season. If Buckner can rack up 10 sacks in 2018, he would grow to be the anchor of the primary post-Harbaugh 49ers protection price writing dwelling about.

Group VI: One Extra Trip

These are the celebrities making one ultimate journey via the league whereas hoping to win a Tremendous Bowl earlier than probably retiring.

Whether or not that is or is just not Gronk’s ultimate season within the NFL, the 29-year-old has in all probability already accomplished sufficient to earn his place within the Corridor of Fame. Terrell Davis’ arrival in Canton confirmed that the voters is keen to honor gamers with shorter careers, and whereas Gronkowski hasn’t gained league MVP, he is probably the most impactful and dominant tight finish we have ever seen. Gronkowski already has been named a first-team All-Professional 4 occasions, a feat which has cleared the trail to induction for every of the 10 eligible ability place gamers to drag off that trick since 1970. Tony Gonzalez, Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson additionally can be first-ballot Corridor of Famers once they’re eligible for election. Another typical season would not harm Gronkowski’s probabilities, however he has merely been too good to maintain out.

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Subject Yates, Mike Clay and Stephania Bell supply their perception on the place Drew Brees ranks heading into the season.

ESPN has air yards and yards after catch knowledge going again via 2006. Of the 393 qualifying seasons from quarterbacks over that time-frame, Brees’ 2017 season had the fourth-smallest hole between air yards per throw (6.36) and yards after catch (6.18). The one quarterback who has been capable of have constant success with a variety that small is Alex Smith, and Brees’ 2017 season was extra productive than any of the Smith campaigns that will come near a good break up. This archetype has an especially skinny margin for error.

This may go certainly one of two methods. One is that the 2017 season was a once-off aberration for Brees, whose air yard share had been declining however fell off of a cliff final season. Quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers make cameos towards the highest of this checklist. The choice is that Brees depends too closely on his receivers, will get what’s going to nearly certainly be a much less spectacular season from Alvin Kamara, and sees his numbers endure.

Speaking about Whitworth is tough. The 36-year-old LSU product might be probably the most underrated soccer participant of the previous decade, provided that he performed extraordinarily nicely at a premium place for an prolonged time frame. His 2017 season was additionally someway overrated, provided that he took a step backward as a go protector after leaving Cincinnati for Los Angeles. Much more paradoxically, Whitworth was concurrently a large improve at a place the Rams have spent almost a full decade making an attempt to unravel. Appraising offensive linemen is tough.

A panel of 50 NFL executives rated all 32 starters on a scale of 1 to five. The place does your group’s QB land?

• 2018 QB Tiers outcomes: Execs charge all 32 starters • Title that QB: Match the quote to the participant • Execs consider way forward for 2018 first-rounders

Should you’re on the lookout for a spot through which the Rams may unravel on offense, although, the offensive line is the possible entry level. There simply have not been many offensive tackles to play at a excessive stage into their late 30s, and whereas Whitworth might slip inside to protect, the Rams do not have a lot veteran depth at sort out. Heart John Sullivan, who’s 33, began 15 video games after suiting up for only one begin between 2015 and 2016. The Rams had one of many league’s healthiest offensive strains final season; if the road cannot maintain up in 2018, all of the schemes and weapons on the earth will not save Los Angeles.

Group VII: The Wild Playing cards Who Might Resolve the Season

Whereas not essentially the primary names we consider as game-changers, these are the gamers who might assist swing a division in the event that they’re wholesome and productive.

The Cowboys are quietly enthusiastic about their protection, which should not be a shock after investing three of their previous 4 first- and second-round picks on that aspect of the ball. For no matter DeMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch may supply, although, the protection is more likely to stay totally depending on the 32-year-old Lee, who, extremely, continues to be but to play a full 16-game season as a professional.

You possibly can perceive why the Cowboys used a first-round choose on Vander Esch when you think about how their protection disintegrated with out Lee within the lineup in 2017. With Lee on the sphere, the Cowboys allowed a passer ranking of 86.6 and a Whole QBR of 48.2. On the 244 go performs through which Lee was on the sidelines, although, the Cowboys allowed a passer ranking of 106.eight and a Whole QBR of 65.three. Issues have been even worse in opposition to the run: Dallas allowed three.5 yards per carry with Lee at linebacker and a whopping Four.9 yards per rush whereas he was sidelined.

Sammy Watkins acquired an enormous free-agent deal from the Chiefs, however now he has to remain wholesome. Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

You may argue that the Chiefs made an much more stunning guess on Anthony Hitchens than they did on their new extensive receiver, however the signing of Watkins makes extra of a press release. The Chiefs did not actually want one other weapon given the presence of Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. They desperately wanted assist at cornerback and will have signed somebody like Trumaine Johnson with the cash they spent on Watkins, though it could have required an extended dedication on paper.

As an alternative, Kansas Metropolis went in the other way and went all-in on weapons for Mahomes. Watkins continues to be solely 25, however he has a critical foot harm in his previous and spent final season as a comparatively innocuous afterthought within the Rams’ offense. Reid has been capable of kind coherent offenses round workmanlike wideouts like James Thrash and Jason Avant previously, however Watkins did not stand out below the halo of Sean McVay when nearly each different Rams weapon had a profession yr. At $16 million per yr, the Chiefs are paying Watkins like he is a top-10 wideout. If he lastly comes of age in Kansas Metropolis, Reid will break even on the deal. What occurs if Watkins would not?

47. Damon Mitchell, head athletic coach, Chargers

Nothing has harm the Chargers extra over the previous three seasons than accidents. They’ve overcome horrible kickers and terrible particular groups. They made it over .500 final season regardless of taking part in their dwelling video games in a soccer stadium largely full of opposing followers. They made it to 9 wins as a result of they acquired full seasons out of Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa and a 15-game marketing campaign from Russell Okung. Philip Rivers wasn’t throwing to undrafted free brokers and being protected by ailing tackles in December, which should have been a nice shock.

The Chargers improved from 31st in adjusted video games misplaced in 2016 to 16th final season, a transfer that coincided with the ascension of Mitchell into the function as head coach. Correlation is not at all times causation, and the Chargers are already down a number of would-be contributors with Hunter Henry, Jason Verrett and Jaylen Watkins all out for the yr, however Mitchell is on this checklist as a reminder of what the Chargers have to do to thrive in 2018. Few groups in soccer can compete with their core of stars on each side of the ball. A number of further begins from Denzel Perryman or Forrest Lamp may be sufficient to push Los Angeles over the road in a crowded AFC West.

Is Smith the final star Cowboys lineman left standing? With Travis Frederick sidelined by Guillain-Barré syndrome and Zack Martin lacking a lot of the preseason with a knee harm, Smith’s return from again and knee points is totally essential for a Cowboys line in main transition. Even when Martin comes again for Week 1, the Cowboys can have new starters at left guard and middle for a season that begins with matchups in opposition to Kawann Brief and Damon Harrison. We noticed what occurred when the Cowboys have been pressured to exchange Smith within the lineup final season; contract-year defensive ends are salivating on the concept of an Adrian Clayborn particular.

Samson Ebukam might put up double-digit sacks with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald speeding from the inside. Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports activities

You realize what the Rams did this offseason. Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib are all right here. Trumaine Johnson, Alec Ogletree and Robert Quinn are in different places. It appeared possible that the Rams have been going to make use of their title-adjacent standing to lure a veteran or two in to hurry the quarterback from the surface, however it by no means actually occurred. The Rams discover themselves coming into the season with the reigning Defensive Participant of the 12 months and a five-time Professional Bowler speeding from the within … and the duo of Ebukam and Matt Longacre on the surface.

Wade Phillips has made stars out of unheralded gamers previously, however these breakouts have not actually come at edge rusher. Actually, Phillips has had at the least one famous person and/or a first-round choose on the sting for many of his current profession. Quinn was round final season. In Houston, Phillips had J.J. Watt drifting exterior to finish throughout from second-round choose Connor Barwin and subsequently first-rounder Whitney Mercilus. Phillips’ Dallas tenure coincided with DeMarcus Ware’s peak alongside Greg Ellis and first-round choose Anthony Spencer. Shawne Merriman was a freak for Phillips in San Diego, though Phillips did assist mildew fourth-round choose Shaun Phillips into a really helpful second choice. The legendary defensive coordinator inherited first-round choose Patrick Kerney in Atlanta and took over a protection with Bruce Smith, Phil Hansen and Bryce Paup in Buffalo. You get the concept.

There is no doubt Phillips is more likely to get probably the most out of his inexperienced expenses, however this can be a wildly aggressive transfer from a group that has dealt away draft picks and handed out huge contracts to gamers at positions on each side of the ball. Groups that function below this mannequin usually need to punt a place or two. The Eagles are presently making an attempt to save cash at operating again and cornerback. The Peyton Manning-era Colts skimped on linebackers. In a league that values edge rushers as probably the most invaluable non-quarterback entities obtainable available on the market, the Rams are putting an enormous guess of their defensive coordinator and a 2017 fourth-round choose with two sacks to his identify.

Group VII: The Ghost

The participant who dominates extra dialog in regards to the NFL than anybody with out even stepping on the sphere.

It is nonetheless unimaginable to speak about crucial individuals in and across the NFL with out mentioning Kaepernick, whose protests in opposition to social injustice nonetheless reverberate and affect the league. The NFL has repeatedly bungled its makes an attempt to ascertain some kind of coverage surrounding the nationwide anthem, a problem President Donald Trump has used to energise his base in opposition to the league.

The on-field story nonetheless hasn’t modified. Kaepernick is overqualified for a job; there isn’t any fashionable precedent for a wholesome quarterback with Kaepernick’s résumé failing to search out work within the NFL. Each time a group has a gap in the course of the season, it goes after and finally acquires a quarterback worse than the man who’s freely obtainable on the open market. The Packers and Texans tanked their seasons in 2017 with Brett Hundley and Tom Savage, passers who no person might credibly say have been more likely to outplay the 30-year-old Kaepernick. Some group will make the identical mistake in 2018.

Colin Kaepernick had 16 landing passes to solely 4 interceptions in 2016, his final season within the NFL. Ezra Shaw/Getty Pictures

There is no finish in sight to the battle between the gamers and the league. Kaepernick has filed a grievance in opposition to the NFL. Eric Reid, the proficient security who knelt alongside Kaepernick in the course of the 2016 season, additionally has filed his personal collusion grievance. The grievance may forestall Kaepernick from discovering work; the one group that expressed curiosity in him this offseason was the Seahawks, who reportedly declined to deliver Kaepernick in for a go to after he refused to say whether or not he would kneel in the course of the anthem if signed.

I have been overlaying the NFL for 10 years now, and in the middle of that decade, I’ve met loads of individuals for the primary time and had that pure dialog about our lives and what we every do for a dwelling. Earlier than 2016, after I mentioned I wrote in regards to the NFL, it often led to a dialog a few favourite group or participant. Often, it led to participant security. Since 2016, those self same conversations have nearly with out fail led to the opposite individual giving their opinion about Colin Kaepernick and the way the NFL has dealt with his scenario. Kaepernick and his determination to protest have grow to be shorthand for political sides in these divided occasions. That is not going anyway anytime quickly.

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Free agent CB Richard Sherman agrees to deal with San Francisco 49ers

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Free agent CB Richard Sherman agrees to deal with San Francisco 49ers

Richard Sherman has agreed to a three-year contract with the San Francisco 49ers. The free-agent cornerback told ESPN’s Josina Anderson that the incentive-laden deal is worth up to $39.15 million.

“I’m thankful to John [Lynch, 49ers GM] and Kyle [Shanahan, 49ers coach] for believing in me,” Sherman told Anderson. “Some smaller details still getting ironed out, but #ShermInTheBay.”

The 49ers had met with Sherman earlier Saturday and wanted to make sure he is healing well from a torn Achilles in one leg and a bone spur in the other. On Friday, Sherman told Anderson that he will be back running on the treadmill next week.

Richard Sherman wanted to go to a contender, and the cornerback joining the 49ers shows he believes they fill the bill — and they believe it, too.

The cornerback was a longtime nemesis, especially when San Francisco and Seattle were at their peaks. But now? Some 49ers roll out the welcome mat.

The former Seahawks corner to San Francisco. Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry to the Browns. Aqib Talib to the Rams. Michael Bennett to the Eagles. Bill Barnwell evaluates every big move of the offseason.

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Sherman and the 49ers both expect that he will be ready for training camp, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who first reported the agreement between the sides.

After being released Friday by the Seahawks, Sherman said he had received preliminary interest from the Titans, Lions, Raiders, Texans, Buccaneers and Packers as well as the 49ers. But San Francisco ended up being the choice, which means two games against his former team in Seattle each regular season.

In adding Sherman, the 49ers filled what was arguably the biggest hole on their team with the most proven veteran cornerback on the market. San Francisco allowed a total QBR of 87 last season, second-worst in the league. At the NFL scouting combine, Lynch said it didn’t take a “savant” to see the team’s need at the position.

With Dontae Johnson, who started all 16 games a year ago, set to become a free agent, the Niners entered this offseason with Ahkello Witherspoon and nickel back K’Waun Williams as their only corners under contract with extensive league experience (four years between them).

Sherman has a long history with the Bay Area, playing his college football at nearby Stanford before going on to become one of the Niners’ biggest adversaries during the heated Seahawks-Niners rivalry that spanned from 2011 to 2013.

Upon arrival in San Francisco and a return to health, Sherman will be expected to hold down a starting cornerback spot opposite Witherspoon in coordinator Robert Saleh’s defense. Saleh and Sherman have a previous relationship from Saleh’s time as a defensive assistant in Seattle.

Because Saleh runs the same Cover 3 defense Sherman spent most of his time playing with the Seahawks, the Niners don’t expect the veteran cornerback to have to make much of an adjustment in terms of scheme fit.

One of the most accomplished cornerbacks of his generation, Sherman made four Pro Bowls and was named a first-team All-Pro three times during his seven seasons with the Seahawks, who drafted him in the fifth round out of Stanford in 2011. His 32 interceptions in that span are first among NFL players, as are his 99 passes defended, according to the NFL.

Sherman was an instrumental figure in Seattle’s historically good defense, which allowed the fewest points in the NFL every year from 2012 to 2015. During his seven seasons with the team, the Seahawks made five playoff appearances, reached two Super Bowls and delivered Seattle its first NFL championship.

Information from ESPN’s Nick Wagoner was used in this report.

#49ers #agent #agrees #CB #deal #Francisco #free #Richard #San #Sherman #Sports #Sports News

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Free agent CB Richard Sherman agrees to deal with San Francisco 49ers

Richard Sherman has agreed to a three-year contract with the San Francisco 49ers. The free-agent cornerback told ESPN's Josina Anderson that the incentive-laden deal is worth up to $39.15 million. "I'm thankful to John [Lynch, 49ers GM] and Kyle [Shanahan, 49ers coach] for believing in me," Sherman told Anderson. "Some smaller details still getting ironed out, but #ShermInTheBay." The 49ers had met with Sherman earlier Saturday and wanted to make sure he is healing well from a torn Achilles in one leg and a bone spur in the other. On Friday, Sherman told Anderson that he will be back to running on the treadmill next week.

Richard Sherman could fit right in with the 49ers' Seattle-like defense, but the cornerback's recent injury issues are among the potential pitfalls.

Four-time Pro Bowl selection Richard Sherman is already pondering his next move as a free agent. The Seahawks are also parting ways with fellow cornerback Jeremy Lane.

Seattle's run as one of the best defenses in NFL history is over after it parted ways with Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett, among other moves. Injuries are only part of the explanation why.

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He also told Anderson on Friday night that he had received preliminary interest from the Titans, Lions, Raiders, Texans, Buccaneers and Packers. But San Francisco ended up being the choice, which means two games against his former team, the Seahawks, each regular season. Sherman, who is serving as his own agent, had made it abundantly clear that he wanted "to go to a contender" after he was released by Seattle on Friday with a failed-physical designation. In adding Sherman, the 49ers filled what was arguably the biggest hole on their team with the most proven veteran cornerback on the market. San Francisco allowed a total QBR of 87 last season, second-worst in the league. At the NFL scouting combine, Lynch said it didn't take a "savant" to see the team's need at the position. With Dontae Johnson, who started all 16 games a year ago, set to become a free agent, the Niners entered this offseason with Ahkello Witherspoon and nickel back K'Waun Williams as their only corners under contract with extensive league experience (four years between them). Sherman has a long history with the Bay Area, playing his college football at nearby Stanford before going on to become one of the Niners' biggest adversaries during the heated Seahawks-Niners rivalry that spanned from 2011 to 2013. Upon arrival in San Francisco and a return to health, Sherman will be expected to hold down a starting cornerback spot opposite Witherspoon in coordinator Robert Saleh's defense. Saleh and Sherman have a previous relationship from Saleh's time as a defensive assistant in Seattle. Because Saleh runs the same Cover 3 defense Sherman spent most of his time playing with the Seahawks, the Niners don't expect the veteran cornerback to have to make much of an adjustment in terms of scheme fit.

One of the most accomplished cornerbacks of his generation, Sherman made four Pro Bowls and was named a first-team All-Pro three times during his seven seasons with the Seahawks, who drafted him in the fifth round out of Stanford in 2011. His 32 interceptions in that span are first among NFL players, as are his 99 passes defended, according to the NFL. Sherman was an instrumental figure in Seattle's historically good defense, which allowed the fewest points in the NFL every year from 2012 to 2015. During his seven seasons with the team, the Seahawks made five playoff appearances, reached two Super Bowls and delivered SeaSeatle  its first NFL championship. Information from ESPN's Nick Wagoner was used in this report.

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The next era of star NFL QBs is way more fun than the last

The NFL is in good hands with young quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson.

So long, era of homogenous quarterbacks.

The NFL of the 21st century had been getting pretty stale, especially at the quarterback position. In 15 of the last 16 Super Bowls, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger was one of the starters.

Those three quarterbacks, along with Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers, were all drafted between 1998 and 2004. And all six of them are in the top eight on the all-time passing yards list. Five of those six are still in the NFL.

They represent a golden age of passing that will have a lasting impact on the record books — and one led by a rather homogenous group of quarterbacks. They mostly looked the same, talked the same, and largely played football the same way.

They’re all traditional pocket passers who — for the most part — played, or still play, the position by the book.

That era is ending now. Luckily for the football watching world, the next generation of stars is here and it’s something entirely different. The young group of quarterbacks drafted in the last four years is brimming with personality and rewriting the way we think about how the position can be played.

Lamar Jackson, the dual threat

The closest thing we’ve ever seen to Jackson was Michael Vick in the early 2000s. Vick never played as well as Jackson is playing for the Ravens in 2019, though.

Jackson’s an MVP frontrunner in only his second season. He has a passer rating in the triple digits and rushing stats that rival some of the best running backs in the league. He’s certainly the only quarterback in the NFL who could pull off the spin move that vaporized two Bengals defenders on a 47-yard rushing touchdown in Week 10.

LAMAR. JACKSON. @Lj_Era8 TO THE HOUSE ‼️‼️ pic.twitter.com/DcR8A7S2Vy

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 10, 2019

There’s a long list of quarterbacks with enough athleticism to rush for a first down, if necessary. Jackson’s one of the few quarterbacks in the history of the NFL who’s just as terrifying throwing the ball as he is keeping it for himself.

And his uniquely electric play on the field is paired with a personality dripping with swag.

Victory Monday Mood @Lj_era8 pic.twitter.com/hbbmcsTGP0

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 11, 2019

He’s not lacking in self-confidence at all, but Jackson’s also quick to heap praise on his teammates instead of reveling in it himself. Given how many doubters he’s already had to face in his young career, it’d make sense if Jackson wanted to rub his success in the noses of haters. But revenge isn’t his motivation, even if Jackson does like to take playful jabs at the critics.

"NOT BAD FOR A RUNNING BACK." - @lj_era8 pic.twitter.com/GjdOeR5xWa

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 8, 2019

Jackson’s a dynamo with a skillset unlike any other in the NFL right now, and fortunately he has a coach who encourages that individualism instead of working to rein it in. The result is the same kind of scoring machine who racked up touchdowns nonstop at Louisville.

The long-term viability of a quarterback running 15-20 times per game is a worthwhile debate. For now, though, Jackson is a weapon with a style all his own.

Patrick Mahomes, the cannon

The Chiefs quarterback has a 50-touchdown season and an MVP award under his belt and he just turned 24. He’s a no-look-pass-throwing, ketchup-loving quarterback with an outrageously strong arm that’s capable of making any throw.

It’s not only the deep bombs — although there have been plenty of those. Mahomes can also do things like throw a jump pass across the middle of the field that turns into a touchdown.

Mahomes hit em with the jump pass and Mecole Hardman did the rest @PatrickMahomes @MecoleHardman4 pic.twitter.com/FKlTWQ97bq

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 10, 2019

He’s athletic and fast, but it’s the cannon attached to his shoulder that makes him dangerous whether he’s rolling out or sitting in the pocket. Either way, a flick of his wrist can turn into a touchdown at any given moment.

#SomethingSpecial The broadcast view did not do this play justice. There's no one else with the creativity, athleticism, and arm talent to execute this play. 35 yard flick of the wrist, off platform, across his body with velocity that he needed to get it there. Mercy. pic.twitter.com/KQJYYeougk

— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) October 8, 2019

That his absurd ability comes with a goofy voice and, occasionally, a pair of jorts is a bonus.

Mahomes missed a couple games in 2019 after dislocating his kneecap, and yet another MVP award still doesn’t look impossible. Mahomes is going to be burying teams with prolific passing assaults for many years to come.

Deshaun Watson, the warrior

There are a lot of different labels that would work as a descriptor of Watson. Ultimately, it’s his blend of skills and his “never quit” mentality that makes him special.

For his entire career, he’s had to deal with a porous Texans offensive line. His tendency to try to create big plays in the face of pressure is part of the reason the third-year starter has already been sacked over 100 times. But that same instinct to keep looking for a play downfield has evolved into a huge problem for opposing defenses.

Even kicking Watson in the face won’t stop him from finding a game-winning touchdown.

.@DeshaunWatson is unbelievable. #WeAreTexans : CBS : NFL app // Yahoo Sports app Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/a16R5wPShJ pic.twitter.com/f2Fss30161

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2019

When pressured in 2019, Watson has six touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating over 90. That elusiveness and relentlessness was on full display in Week 9 when the Jaguars only managed to sack him once, despite recording a pressure 12 times.

A joy to watch in LDN!@SubwayUK's Player of the Week... @deshaunwatson @HoustonTexans pic.twitter.com/3qEg2DoGxM

— NFL UK (@NFLUK) November 6, 2019

Watson has elevated his already stellar play in year three of his career. And it’s really easy to root for a player who donated his first NFL paycheck to cafeteria workers affected by Hurricane Harvey and has recently developed a reputation for elaborate breakdowns of defenses in press conferences.

A sizable extension is probably coming soon for Watson, and that’s a no-brainer for the Texans. They’ve found their franchise quarterback.

Dak Prescott, the gunslinger

Early in Prescott’s career, he was just a game manager for a team that was built around running the ball. Prescott’s job was to avoid turnovers and keep the chains moving.

Now, those days are long gone. The Cowboys’ fourth-year quarterback can put the offense on his back when Ezekiel Elliott gets shut down. Prescott has become a player more than willing to fire into tight windows.

Even in the loss, Dak Prescott consistently defied the odds against the Vikings, completing +6.5% of his attempts above expectation. 5 of Prescott's 10 most improbable completions of the season came in tonight's game, including 3 to Amari Cooper.#MINvsDAL | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/AZYuQujdnm

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 11, 2019

Some of those throws become turnovers, but most are turning into big plays for the Cowboys. That’s why Prescott still has a passer rating above 100, even though he’s near the top of the league in interceptions. He also leads the league in Total QBR, an ESPN formula that measures just about every aspect of quarterback play.

While Prescott doesn’t draw much attention to himself, he’s a standup guy off the field who throws away his trash correctly and isn’t a bad “dancer” to boot.

Dak dancing to Suavemente pic.twitter.com/UV0eEsc42i

— Hector Diaz (@iamHectorDiaz) November 11, 2019

Just a few months ago, “gunslinger” wouldn’t seem like the right way to describe Prescott’s spot on this list. But it’s a surprisingly fitting title for Prescott, who’s ranked in the top five in touchdowns, passing yards per game, and interceptions in 2019.

Carson Wentz, the escape artist

The Eagles haven’t given Wentz much help in 2019. Few teams have more dropped passes, and his receivers aren’t getting much separation. That’s the biggest reason why Wentz — a player who was on the doorstep of MVP honors in 2017 — is near the bottom of the NFL in completion percentage.

One of the only reasons Philadelphia is in the postseason hunt anyway is because Wentz is freakin’ Houdini.

Carson Wentz just did THAT. How?pic.twitter.com/h4YmmlaX5J

— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) September 16, 2019

Wentz is a shocking amount of slippery for a player who’s 6’5, 237 pounds. However, the key to his escapability is his ability to make tough throws, whether his feet are underneath him or not.

Really impressive throw from Carson Wentz to deliver this ball in stride outside the numbers from the far hash while getting his foot stepped on pic.twitter.com/QX4mcQ66Lj

— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) October 15, 2019

Off the field, Wentz supports charitable causes through his foundation and — like Prescott — doesn’t say much that garners attention. But his wheeling and dealing in the pocket makes the Eagles offense always worth watching.

There are other sensational young quarterbacks in the NFL who could soon earn a spot on this list.

Kyler Murray is quietly compiling impressive statistics for a rookie, Gardner Minshew may eventually retake his spot as the Jaguars’ starter, and it’s still too early to give up on the idea of Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff eventually returning to their 2018 selves.

Mayfield set a record for touchdown passes by a rookie last year, but his sophomore slump could easily be the fault of first-year head coach Freddie Kitchens. Goff is playing behind an offensive line that’s suddenly a disaster. They both can still have promising futures.

Even if they never get there, the NFL is in good hands. For the first time in a long time, there’s a variety of personalities and styles at the quarterback position. That’s a new phenomenon — and it’s a blast to watch.

[yahoo-roto-arcade-blog]

Stats based bold Fantasy Football predictions for 2018

By Matt Kelley (@Fantasy_Mansion) Special to Yahoo Sports

The 2017 Fantasy Football season delivered a healthy share of surprises and unprecedented results. Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt, rookie running backs drafted outside the first round, finished among the top-5 fantasy running backs. Amari Cooper was the least efficient professional receiver since Greg Little, and Dez Bryant’s fantasy value imploded like a supernova in the sky. The most stunning season belonged to Deshaun Watson, who became the first rookie quarterback since Fantasy Football became a thing to lead in the world points per game.

When a season seems too good to be true, it probably is. Reviewing last season’s advanced stats and metrics, which shock-worthy events and outcomes are more probable than plausible in 2018?

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Marcus Mariota outscores Deshaun Watson

Watson lived a charmed NFL life, right until the moment he tore his ACL in early November. A deep dive into Watson’s efficiency metrics revealed a curious dichotomy. Of his 13 interceptable passes, only eight were picked off, and of his 204 pass attempts, only four were dropped by his receivers. Defenders dropped more of Deshaun Watson’s passes than Texans receivers last season. Friendly bounces propelled Watson to the most efficient quarterback season since Nick Foles was first paired with Chip Kelly. Watson finished No. 1 in numerous efficiency metrics from Adjusted Yards Per Attempt to Air Yards Per Attempt to QBR. Yet, his 64.0-percent True Completion Percentage, which factors out receiver drops and throwaways, ranked No. 32 among NFL quarterbacks. Watson was the luckiest quarterback in football.

In contrast to Watson’s rookie campaign, Mariota experienced an exceptionally unlucky 2017. Defenders caught an unusually high percentage of his interceptable passes and Titans receivers dropped 1.5 of Mariota’s passes per game, nearly tripling Watson’s 0.6 receiver drops per game.

On the other hand, Watson’s serendipitous 2017 season actually mirrored Mariota’s 2016 campaign. Mariota’s Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, which rewards touchdown passes and punishes interceptions, as well as his deep ball completion percentage, actually exceeded to Watson’s otherworldly 2017 numbers.

Stats & Metrics 2016 Mariota 2017 Watson  Adjusted Yards Per Attempt 7.9 7.7  Air Yards Per Attempt 4.9 5.3  Deep Ball Completion % 42.0% 41.7%

The continued development of young talents Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Jonnu Smith will bolster the play-making ability of Mariota’s supporting cast next season. As a prospect, Davis was particularly strong in the two most predictive WR metrics. His 51.6-percent (96th percentile) College Dominator Rating and 18.7 (95th percentile) Breakout Age indicate he was one of the best college receivers of the last decade. As the entire Titans offense ascends, Davis will come along for the ride and likely finish 2018 as a top-10 fantasy receiver.

All external forces aside, it stands to reason that both Mariota and Watson are destined for a mean reversion. Don’t be surprised when Mariota scores more fantasy points than Watson in 2018.

Austin Seferian Jenkins: Top-3 Tight End

While Corey Davis was one of the most impressive receiver prospects of the last decade, Seferian-Jenkins is the single most impressive tight end prospect of the last 10 years. His College Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, Speed Score, Agility Score, and Catch Radius are all well above the 75th percentile. Based on the advanced stats and metrics, Seferian-Jenkins owns the most impressive talent profile of any receiver on the New York Jets roster.

After bad luck and arcane NFL rules robbed Seferian-Jenkins of at least three touchdowns this season, he will enter 2018 as the best-value tight end in fantasy. Operating as a featured weapon in a Jets passing game destined for a quarterback upgrade this offseason, Seferian-Jenkins is one injury (Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz) away from ascending into the top-3 fantasy tight ends.

Helping Seferian-Jenkins back into the top-3 will be the tight end’s ignominious reputation as the most injury-prone positon in sports. Just ask Jordan Reed. Given how football has ravaged Reed’s body, it would be shocking, and yet not surprising, if he retires in 2018.

Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook: Top-5 Fantasy RBs

The NFL’s running back renaissance is just ramping up. Next year’s rookie class featuring Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Bryce Love, and Sony Michel will likely score more fantasy points than the 2017 running back class that included Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara. Beyond the numerous cut candidates who are approaching retirement such as Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson, many younger incumbent backs from C.J. Anderson to Lamar Miller to Kenyan Drake to Ameer Abdullah to Jordan Howard to Jay Ajayi to Isaiah Crowell are at risk of losing touches to accommodate this continued running back talent infusion.

Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry are two of only a handful of safe backs for dynasty leagues. Both backs were exceptional in key efficiency metrics on PlayerProfiler. Henry finished in the top-10 in yards created per carry and Cook finished top-10 in yards per touch.

Beyond efficiency, the Titans and Vikings offer quality offensive line play and a run-oriented offensive philosophy. Both Cook and Henry have workhorse résumés stretching back to their college years. When RB depth chart chaos ensues in the wake of the upcoming draft, Cook and Henry will be well-positioned to vault into the top-5 fantasy running backs in 2018.

Slot Receivers Will Rule Fantasy

Slot receivers scored an unprecedented number of fantasy points in 2017. Ten receivers with Slot Rates above 35-percent scored 12.0 or more PPR fantasy points, despite the quintessential volume slot man, Julian Edelman, missing the season with an ACL tear.

Wide Receiver Slot Rate Fantasy Points

Per Game

 Keenan Allen 36.5% 16.7  Larry Fitzgerald 51.3% 16.5  Adam Thielen 44.0% 15.3  Jarvis Landry 44.4% 15.9  Golden Tate 61.3% 13.3  Doug Baldwin 56.2% 13.1  Sterling Shepard 58.0% 13.1  Nelson Agholor 58.9% 12.6  Juju Smith-Schuster 38.4% 12.5  Cooper Kupp 60.0% 12.0

The 2018 NFL Draft class again features strong slot receiver prototypes, most notably Christian Kirk, D.J. Moore, Trey Quinn, and Anthony Miller. In Oakland, Jon Gruden is rumored to move Amari Cooper primarily into the slot where he flourished at Alabama and in Oakland.

As more NFL teams run three and four-receiver sets and call plays featuring slot receivers in the read progression, a higher percentage of target share will funnel inside. Given this trend, half of the top-25 receivers should operate out of the slot in 2018.

Bold enough for you?

#_author:Yahoo Sports Staff #_category:yct:001000854 #_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL #_uuid:30f13d65-3f3d-3403-94e4-fbf374dd21dc #_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56

[jodyedgarus]

With No Runaway Favorites, The NFL Playoffs Should Be Wild

With the NFL’s playoff bracket finally set, it’s time to survey the field and handicap the race for the Super Bowl. What’s interesting about this season is that there are plenty of very good teams but few that could be classified as truly dominant. Nine teams have an Elo rating1 of at least 1600, but none of them has cracked 1700 on the eve of the playoffs. In only one other season since 1990 — when the NFL expanded its postseason to the current format — have this many teams been squeezed into the 1600-to-1700 range on the Elo scale, and even that season (2015) had one team above 1700:

Because of this logjam of good-not-great teams, nobody heads into the playoffs with better odds than the New Orleans Saints’ 21 percent chance to win it all, according to Elo. That’s the third-lowest pre-playoff championship probability for a Super Bowl favorite since 1990, trailing only the 2015 Carolina Panthers and 2009 San Diego Chargers at 20 percent apiece. It’s also much lower than the 30 percent average for the typical pre-playoff favorite before this year.

Overall, this year’s favorites are less likely to win the Super Bowl than usual — meaning the Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have a lower probability than the typical top two going into the playoffs — while most of the lesser teams have a better chance than you’d expect to see in an average year.

This year’s playoffs are more wide-open than usual

Probability of winning the Super Bowl by rank (among playoff field) for the 2018 season and the average of the 1990-2017 seasons, according to FiveThirtyEight Elo ratings

rank 2018 Team 1990-17 Avg. 1 Saints 21%

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30%

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2 Chiefs 20

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21

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3 Patriots 14

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14

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4 Rams 13

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10

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5 Bears 7

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7

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6 Ravens 6

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5

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7 Chargers 4

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4

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8 Eagles 4

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3

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9 Seahawks 4

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2

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10 Cowboys 3

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2

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11 Texans 3

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1

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12 Colts 3

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1

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All numbers are as of the final regular-season game of a given year. 2018 probabilities may not add up exactly to 100 percent because of rounding.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Given all of this, the wild-card round could take on more significance than usual, since it’s not a stretch to imagine one of the teams playing this weekend taking home the Lombardi Trophy when all is said and done.

If Elo had to pick a favorite from that category, it would be the Chicago Bears, who are currently tied for third in the league in Elo and will host the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (tied for No. 7) on Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET. Chicago finished the regular season having allowed the league’s fewest points, so this is a classic Monsters-of-the-Midway Bears team in that sense. But quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is also playing much better than the typical Chicago QB from playoffs past — he’s no Jim Miller or Rex Grossman, for instance. According to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating,2 Trubisky was the NFL’s third most effective quarterback on a per-play basis this season. While he had some lows (such as a dreadful 29.5 QBR in an opening-week loss to the Packers) to go with the highs (like a 98.9 QBR vs. Tampa Bay in Week 4, one of the highest single-game marks on record), Trubisky’s strides as a second-year passer helped Chicago’s offense — which ranked a respectable 13th in expected points added — be more in line with its dominating defense.

In fact, according to our experimental quarterback-adjusted Elo ratings, Trubisky enters Sunday’s game with the best QB adjustment of any Bears postseason signal-caller since the 1986 Super Bowl, when Jim McMahon was worth approximately 36 more points of Elo than an average quarterback (and promptly shredded the New England Patriots defense for 256 yards and a 104.2 passer rating in a 46-10 rout). Trubisky himself is worth an estimated 18 points of Elo, which is why Chicago stands out if we map out the QB adjustment and base (QB-neutral) Elo rating for each of this year’s wild-card-round combatants:

The remainder of the wild-card field lines up roughly in inverse order between quarterback quality and that of the rest of the team. Some teams — such as Andrew Luck’s Colts and Deshaun Watson’s Texans — have gotten to where they are largely because of their standout quarterback play. Others, like the Ravens, are doing a lot better recently than we’d expect from their QBs’ performance alone. Baltimore has won six times in the seven games since Lamar Jackson replaced Joe Flacco as the starter in Week 11, though Jackson himself ranked third-worst among qualified quarterbacks in QBR this season, and that includes his stellar rushing statistics.3 (Beyond his own stats, Jackson’s effect on the team’s overall running game shows up under the team’s QB-neutral Elo rating.)

Everyone else is somewhere in between, including the resurgent Eagles with backup Nick Foles, whose QB adjustment is back roughly where it was after Philly beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but took many twists and turns to get there; the Chargers with 37-year-old Philip Rivers, whose own adjustment has fallen by 38 Elo points since Week 13 with a string of mediocre outings down the stretch; the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys, whose team QB adjustment has hovered around average all season; and Russell Wilson’s Seahawks, whose own run-heavy attack masked another season of highly efficient passing.

How Elo sees the wild-card round playing out

Win probabilities for Week 18 games according to two methods — standard Elo and a version that contains an adjustment for starting quarterbacks

Standard Elo QB-Adjusted Elo Team Rating Win Prob. Base Rtg Starting QB QB Adj. Win Prob. CHI 1640 61% 1644 Mitchell Trubisky +18 66% PHI 1624 39 1606 Nick Foles +2 34 BAL 1627 60 1650 Lamar Jackson -42 61 LAC 1624 40 1580 Philip Rivers +12 39 DAL 1572 54 1569 Dak Prescott 0 55 SEA 1605 46 1572 Russell Wilson +26 45 HOU 1551 56 1537 Deshaun Watson +28 58 IND 1578 44 1533 Andrew Luck +38 42

Home teams are in bold.

Elo quarterback adjustments are relative to average, based on a rolling average of defense-adjusted QB stats (including rushing).

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Of those, Elo gives the best chance of advancing to the Bears, followed by the Ravens. And upset-wise, the best odds belong to the Seahawks against the Cowboys, regardless of whether we adjust for recent QB performance. Whichever teams win, they’ll have to contend with road games in the divisional round — but given the overall state of the league, they’ll still have a better chance than usual to knock somebody off and forge their own path to the Super Bowl.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

To keep tabs on each team’s classic Elo as the weekend plays out, be sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction interactive, which simulates the rest of the season 100,000 times and tracks how likely every team is to advance through the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. And even though the regular season is over, you can still pick against the Elo algorithm in our prediction game and keep climbing up our giant leaderboard.

According to data from the game last week, here are the matchups in which Elo made its best — and worst — predictions against the reader picks for Week 17:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 17

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 17 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET PTS TEN 62% IND 55% IND 33, TEN 17 +15.1

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NO 87 NO 77 CAR 33, NO 14 +13.3

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MIN 56 MIN 50 CHI 24, MIN 10 +3.5

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LAC 64 LAC 70 LAC 23, DEN 9 +1.8

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PHI 65 PHI 71 PHI 24, WSH 0 +1.6

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HOU 71 HOU 74 HOU 20, JAX 3 -0.1

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ATL 54 ATL 56 ATL 34, TB 32 -0.4

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PIT 83 PIT 83 PIT 16, CIN 13 -1.7

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SEA 88 SEA 86 SEA 27, ARI 24 -2.0

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KC 88 KC 86 KC 35, OAK 3 -2.3

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LAR 85 LAR 83 LAR 48, SF 32 -2.6

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NE 89 NE 86 NE 38, NYJ 3 -2.6

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GB 65 GB 67 DET 31, GB 0 -4.4

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BUF 59 BUF 55 BUF 42, MIA 17 -5.5

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DAL 62 DAL 56 DAL 36, NYG 35 -8.2

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BAL 81 BAL 68 BAL 26, CLE 24 -10.5

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Home teams are in bold.

The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Even though the readers knew about various Week 17 roster shenanigans (such as resting starters) and Elo didn’t, the algorithm did what it’s been doing most of the season, beating the field by an average of 5 points per reader. (Elo beat the average reader 16 times in 17 weeks during the regular season.) Readers picked up points for trusting Luck and Indy against the Blaine Gabbert-led Titans in Sunday night’s do-or-die regular-season finale, and they also got credit for fading the Saints, who were resting starters against the Panthers in a meaningless contest. But at times that knowledge came back to haunt them, such as when they dropped the odds of the Ezekiel Elliott-less Cowboys against the Giants, only to see Dallas storm back and win. (And it was odd to see Elo underestimate the Browns, which it’s been doing all season, only to have that work out at season’s end.)

Either way, congrats to Jake Horowitz, who led all identified users in Week 17 with 294.2 points, and to good ol’ Greg Chili Van Hollebeke, who hung on to his No. 1 ranking for the season with 1,168.1 points. Thanks to everyone who has been playing — and the game isn’t over yet! You should keep making picks and trying your luck against Elo throughout the playoffs.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/with-no-runaway-favorites-the-nfl-playoffs-should-be-wild/