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#could I have drawn the prompts in order thus posting them in a timely manner? definitely. did I do that? obviously not
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Saiouma Not-week 2023 Not-Day 3: Bandages
chop chop, mend mend, kiss it better why dontcha!
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leakinghate · 6 years
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You are Wrong about Lotor
The advertisements for this season promised to blur the lines between good and evil and delivered exactly that. By the conclusion of Voltron Legendary Defender season Six our paladins have apparently killed the only true hero in this show, destroyed their only access point to unlimited clean energy, and kickstarted a civil war in the Galra Empire. Team Voltron, has become the villains.
What’s that?
Doesn’t sound like we watched the same show?
Let me explain.
The writing and framing this season were truly incredible. Meticulously calculated to provide just the right information at just the right time to draw the exact wrong conclusions. It aims to provoke a violent emotional reaction in the viewer and discourage them from thinking critically about what they’re seeing. Even better, it’s a double trick, as additionally, our protagonists in the show fall into the same trap. It’s so incredibly meta, to have your audience make the same, independent conclusion as your characters.
It’s emotional manipulation at it’s cruelest, and this is only the first of the one-two punch that’s due to land it’s second hit next season.
Because team Voltron is wrong about Lotor, and so are you.
To cut to the chase, the story the narrative wants you to conclude, is that Lotor is keeping a group of Alteans hostage to systematically drain them of quintessence for use in his experiments.
I’m going to tell you right now, that’s not what’s happening.
Romelle is either hopelessly naive or malicious: she straight up admits to only knowing parts of the truth. Suspiciously, she is the first and only person Keith and Krolia encounter, but just so happens to be the only person privy to the ‘dark secrets’ of the colony. What luck! Of course, they must avoid interacting with the other Alteans who reside in the colony, as nobody else would believe Romelle if she told them. Convenient.  As far as I am concerned, everything she tells them that was not also directly witnessed by Krolia and Keith is suspect.
Speaking of, how is it, exactly, that we know Lotor is extracting quintessence from these people? Hmm? Do we have any concrete proof? No. Keith jumps to conclusions. Keith shoots first and asks questions later.
Upon discovering the emaciated Alteans in the pods Keith immediately declares that Lotor must be harvesting their quintessence. We see no actual quintessence in the lab, and by the accumulation of dust it appears that the facility has been unused for quite some time. Logically, the quintessence that the blade intercepted, and that Keith and Krolia have been seeking the source of, had to have come from somewhere, but that place isn’t this lab. But, this is no time for logic; Keith, Krolia and Romelle race off to the Castle of Lions to confront Lotor.
Sendak was absolutely correct when he said that the paladin’s greatest weakness was that they value the lives of others. Because just the suggestion that some innocent people may have lost their lives is enough to prompt the paladins to ambush someone, guns drawn, who has thus far proved himself a powerful and valuable ally. They ask Lotor exactly zero questions and don’t allow him the time to explain themselves. And it was the idea alone that caused them to act, because at no point did they seek out any proof whatsoever!
Allura alone I will grant some leeway in her reaction.
I 100% understand why Allura reacted the way she did, after all the shit she’s been through. She’s only just managed to feel that not all Galra are as monstrous as Zarkon. She’s fallen in love with his own son, and she’s hoping with everything she has that he’s really a good person. I’m sure there was still some residual fear there, it can’t have been more than two years from her perspective since everything she’s known and loved was taken from her. It takes so long to shake a trauma like she’s been through, and many people never fully do. And when she discovers that Lotor has been hiding the existence of other Alteans from her? That he admits to having to sacrifice a few? That fear and anger flared up.
It’s conspicuous, that circumstances conspire to both render Lotor unconscious and to remove him from the castle before he can explain himself. He doesn’t even hear half of the things that he’s been accused of doing and so wouldn’t know to deny them. No one ever, at any point, asks Lotor if he’s been harvesting quintessence from living Alteans. We’re left waiting to hear his side of things, and then, the next thing he says referencing Team Voltron is this:
“Zethrid, Ezor, my deepest apologies for lying to you both. But in order to gain the princess’s trust, and make the paladins of Voltron believe we were truly at odds, it had to be done.”
This comes at an interesting place in the narrative. Seemingly confirming that Lotor has been manipulating Team Voltron the whole time, and thus invalidating the sincerity of any of his prior actions since splitting from his generals. Because it follows immediately upon the horrific accusations he was denied the chance to refute it also tricks us into thinking he’s admitting to them. After all, if he’s been faking this entire time, what couldn’t he be capable of? Except. This apology is itself a lie.
In fact, regardless of whatever understanding Lotor and Axca have between them, it is impossible for them to have been working together at any point between Axca’s betrayal at Daibazaal and The Generals allying themselves with Haggar; after the point in which Allura and Team Voltron began extending some trust to Lotor. While it’s possible - even probable - that Lotor and Axca may have had contingency plans for faking a split between the generals and Lotor, and some of those plans may have included attempting an alliance with Voltron, there are far too many moving pieces for all that transpired between them to have been planned ahead of time. Far too many opportunities for one or all of them to have died. And, consistently, Lotor puts his own survival and that of his loyal allies above all other priorities.
Simply put, if the generals hadn’t been recruited by Haggar they would have been executed. If Axca was loyal to Lotor at this point she would have had no good reason to risk her life by returning to the empire, especially when Lotor had just killed Zarkon.
He says this when he does because he needs Ezor and Zethrid to not fight him over returning to the Castle of Lions. His words towards his generals, notably using ‘power’ instead of ‘peace’, are chosen to convince them to work with him again and to give the impression that he has control of the situation and a plan - which he absolutely does not.
We know this is a facade, because the moment Lotor comes face to face - or ship to lion - with Allura again he drops it and reverts to language and mannerisms he’s been using before with her. But he’s doing this openly in front of his generals and they’re visibly perplexed.
Lotor rushes back to the Castle of Lions to attempt to reason with Allura. He loves her, and he's willing to put aside his pride and plead with her in front of both of their teams. You can hear the panic in his voice as he tries to hold it together.
And then Allura accuses Lotor of being worse than Zarkon. Everything after that, isn't really him. He has a mental breakdown. He’s had every support ripped away, and 10,000 years worth of repressed pain and anguish come crashing down on him. He's lost everything that matters to him, had the one person he though he could trust, the woman he loves, accuse him of his own greatest fear, and he's hurting.
In meta about prior seasons I’ve seen it expressed that it’s a miracle that Lotor escaped his upbringing as apparently put together as he did. He’s paranoid, and occasionally willing to go against his own moral code if it means surviving another day, but surprisingly stable.
Well, it turns out he isn’t. Lotor fairly obviously has some degree of mental illness, and it unfortunately contributes to his decline in the season finale. At the risk of getting too personal in a fandom meta post, Lotor’s breakdown is eerily familiar to me - and I would expect many other fans with experience with mental health issues as well. I too have had crisis like that, complete with screaming, ranting and threatening to kill everyone who’s ever even so much as looked at you funny.
This whole situation went to hell because team Voltron has a history of making decisions based on emotions rather than logic. So far, it’s worked out pretty alright for them, but that’s about to change. They’ve lost their home, their best chance for stability and avoiding a civil war in the Galra Empire, and a loyal friend. Because they let their emotions get the best of them and couldn’t take fifteen minutes to sort out their facts from their fears.
The only negative thing. The only negative thing Lotor admits to, is that ‘many Alteans perished in [his] quest to unlock the mysteries of quintessence.’ He does not say how they died, he does not say he killed them, he doesn’t even say that their deaths were intentional. For all we know, they died in a lab accident. Those Alteans in pods? Among the many functions pods like those are established to have in VLD are healing and cryopreservation. We don’t even know that those people are the deceased Alteans in question. We don’t even know if they’re dead!
The one and only time we see the blue quintessence used as intended in show is when Lotor uses the last of his supply of it to energize his Sincline ship and attempts to pass through the gate for the first time. In response to Zethrid’s concern that this is the last of their concentrated quintessence Lotor states that once they get into the rift they will have access to an unlimited amount of it. Therefore, it stands to reason that the white quintessence found in the rift contains the same properties as the blue of unknown origin. But that the yellow and purple the Empire uses apparently does not.  Lotor doesn't need the quintessence in the rift for the empire: he needs it for the Alteans. He's not manipulating anyone, his goals are the same as theirs: peace and free energy for the universe. While it’s likely the blue quintessence does have some relation to the colony, whatever that is, there is currenly no evidence whatsoever that it’s being extracted from sentient beings. He’s clearly looking for a replacement source as it is. He likely wanted to tell Allura about the Altean colony, but felt he needed to secure reliable access to the quintessence field before he could do so.
So what’s this second punch that’s going to land next season?
If you haven’t guessed already, think how this is actually going to turn out. Because we know Romelle is wrong, whether on purpose or by accident. She basically conspired to kill the man who did everything in his power to save her people and her culture. And she did so by turning his friends against him.
How are the paladins going to feel when they realize this? How is Allura going to feel? She left Lotor to die in the rift. After he begged her to see reason. After he confessed his feelings for her. After she fell in love with him.
Ultimately, despite what many people expected, and indeed what many people are saying, Lotor has never intentionally manipulated the paladins and he didn’t betray Team Voltron.
Allow me to repeat myself:
Lotor didn’t betray Team Voltron
They betrayed him.
Sincere thanks to all my fandom family in the Lotura 18+ discord. Nearly all of the conclusions reached in this meta were origionally hashed out during chat sessions. Love you all, and I hope for anyone disheartened by s6 this meta can give you a bit of hope for the future.
I sincerely believe, that when all things are said and done, Voltron: Legendary Defender is going to go down as one of the best shows ever created.
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sciencespies · 5 years
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From dealing drugs to selling tortillas: the surprising future of former gang members
https://sciencespies.com/humans/from-dealing-drugs-to-selling-tortillas-the-surprising-future-of-former-gang-members/
From dealing drugs to selling tortillas: the surprising future of former gang members
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
Becoming a gang member is often assumed to imply few long-term life opportunities beyond dying or being imprisoned. In most of the world, however, this only concerns a minority of gang members, with the majority tending to “mature out” out of their gang, and becoming (more or less) upstanding members of society.
Indeed, a striking finding of my longitudinal research in Nicaragua is that many former gang members can actively thrive directly as a result of their gang-related experiences, to the extent that we can talk about there being clear dividends.
Only gang leaders thrive
In their book Freakonomics, Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner famously highlight how the benefits of being a member of a drug-dealing gang are often quite limited. In particular, the authors describe how the overwhelming majority of those involved in the US drug trade earn less than the minimum wage, with only gang leaders receiving anything in the way of substantial material returns.
While this is not necessarily the case everywhere, there is no doubt that the material benefits of drug dealing can often be unevenly distributed.
At the same time, being a member of a drug gang can also provide individuals with more intangible benefits drawing from street-experience or specific skills and knowledge inherent to the “job”. These can potentially have more important consequences for post-drug dealing trajectories than any putative material returns.
However, the long-term benefits are highly variable, as my research shows through the contrasting trajectories of Milton and Bismarck, two former members of a drug-dealing gang in the barrio Luis Fanor Hernández, the poor neighbourhood in Managua, the capital city of Nicaragua, where I carry out my work.
Selling crack on a bicycle
Between 2010 and 2011, Milton was a crack dealer, selling drugs in a concealed manner to avoid attracting attention. As he explained:
“I wouldn’t sell on the streets but would only sell to regular clients and … deliver drugs to them directly, whenever they wanted it instead of having them come to the barrio … I had a good number of clients, who would text me whenever they wanted some crack, which I’d then deliver to them on my bicycle.”
Milton was a successful dealer but he did not save much money, preferring to spend conspicuously. He ceased drug dealing in 2011 after the drug trade in Luis Fanor Hernández collapsed due to the local wholesaler’s arrest. Finding himself out of work, he decided to start a tortilla-making business instead.
“Everybody likes tortillas”
“Why a tortilla-making business, you ask? Well, my mother was a tortillera—you know, a tortilla-maker—but she was getting old and wanted to give it up, so I told her, why don’t you let me take over?”
Milton went on to explain how normally tortilleras would make their tortillas early in the morning, but by the time they go out to sell them they would be all stale and cold, and “nobody likes a cold tortilla”. He had an idea that would enable him to sell fresh, steaming-hot tortillas:
“I thought to myself, ‘Why don’t I do like I did with drugs, get people to text me when they want tortillas, and I’d then make them and deliver them straight away?'”
Milton therefore confidently approached local businesses with samples of his tortillas, and told people that if they wanted fresh, hot tortillas, they should just text him.
“At first only a few people did so, but word got around, and pretty quickly I was getting more orders than I could cope with.”
A success story
These were the days when rapid-food delivery companies were in their infancy worldwide. In Nicaragua such services were unknown, so this new way of producing and delivering tortillas was a game changer. Milton’s business expanded rapidly, to the extent that he had to hire five people to make tortillas and invest in a motorcycle for deliveries.
Now producing around 3,000 tortillas a day, Milton’s business is extremely successful, and completely dominates the tortilla market in Luis Fanor Hernández and its surroundings.
In 2016, it provided him with a weekly profit of almost US$200, more than twice Nicaragua’s monthly median wage, and about 80% of what he used to make as a drug dealer.
This success is directly due to Milton’s having drawn on his drug-dealing experience to structure his new business. In particular, the use of mobile technology and the “just in time” delivery enabled him to gain an edge on existing tortilla sellers. Normally this field of economic activity has traditional means of operating and low profit margins. But Milton established the basis for an exceptionally profitable mode of operation.
Bismarck, the real-estate baron
At the same time, the knowledge and skills learned in gangs are not always useful or deployable in a sustainable manner. The case of Bismarck, who dealt drugs in barrio Luis Fanor Hernández between 2000 and 2006, is a case in point.
Unlike Milton, Bismarck saved a significant proportion of his drug-dealing profits. He had much less of a conspicuously consuming lifestyle, and would regularly invest in real estate, buying houses to rent out and building an inexpensive hostel in Luis Fanor Hernández.
When he stopped dealing drugs, these properties ensured that he continued to enjoy a comfortable monthly revenue, albeit equivalent to about 55% of what he had earned as a drug dealer, something that Bismarck professed himself to be more than happy with insofar as “being a businessman was much less dangerous than being a drug dealer”.
A risky venture
Unlike other property owners in the neighbourhood, Bismarck was successful at obtaining prompt rental payment because he drew on his gang experience to intimidate, threaten and sometimes enact violence against his renters.
This proved to be something of a double-edged sword, as within a few years, Bismarck lost all of his property portfolio except for his own home, due to the very reason that had made his real estate business initially successful. Some of his houses were expropriated by renters, themselves former gang members, who banded up to intimidate and beat up Bismarck. His hostel was burned down by a group of ex-military men staying there who did not take well to being threatened when they failed to pay their rent.
Bismarck’s post-drug dealing trajectory thus contrasts strongly with Milton’s, and highlights how the skills and knowledge gained through having been a gang member can have different consequences and variable outcomes. Not all gang-related skills and knowledge are always beneficial, and their dividends depend very much on the way and field of activity within which they are deployed.
But knowing that the gang member experience is not necessarily always negative and can sometimes potentially lead to more positive outcomes is clearly important in relation to developing coherent policies and opportunities for former gang members that will harness their undoubted vitality and allow them to maximise their post-gang contribution to society.
Explore further
Gangs don’t protect against crime
Provided by The Conversation
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Citation: From dealing drugs to selling tortillas: the surprising future of former gang members (2019, July 4) retrieved 4 July 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-07-drugs-tortillas-thesurprising-future-offormer.html
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Making Cash From Sketches
Online cash making choices by and large expect you to have a type of site, and have some sort of capacity in promoting and advertising and online venture to begin with. In any case, imagine a scenario where I prompted you that there was an alternative to procure money on-line utilizing your present expressions and artworks mastery. When you're intrigued, perused on, because of we will look at Etsy, and the way you should utilize your current expressions and artworks capacities to accomplish cash on-line. What Is Etsy? Etsy, and different locales like it, is an electronic entrance that empowers individuals from the site to posting their bona fide expressions and specialties manifestations on the situating, include a value and conveyance costs, and publicize them to people everywhere throughout the world. It is to some degree like eBay, with the exception of that every one of the pieces on it's handcrafted by the people who utilize the location. 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therightnewsnetwork · 7 years
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Some Obvious Thoughts about the Comey Firing
Julian Sanchez
As it says on the tin, most of what I have to say about the dismissal of FBI Director James Comey is obvious, and indeed, most of it has already been said well by others. But sometimes it’s worth rehearsing the obvious.
First: The position of FBI director has — since 1976, and following J. Edgar Hoover’s umbral half century tenure — been set for 10 years, in substantial part to keep it both symbolically and practically removed from the vicissitudes of electoral cycles. Formally, any president can, of course remove a director short of that term, but it’s happened exactly once, 24 years ago, when Bill Clinton sacked early-90s arcade screen mainstay William S. Sessions, for ethics violations. It is not, traditionally, one of those posts that just routinely swaps occupants when a new administration pitches its tent: Firing a director is an extraordinary event, for which one expects strong, clear reasons.
Second: The stated reasons for Comey’s dismissal are pretextual. They are so transparently, ludicrously pretextual that we should all feel at least a little bit insulted. The putative basis for Comey’s firing is a three page memo, dated May 9, faulting his public handling of the Hillary Clinton e-mail server investigation, and a recommendation from Attorney General Jeff Sessions, also dated May 9, that Comey be dismissed on that basis. The three-page memo levels a number of fundamentally valid criticisms. It is also, as perhaps three page memos must necessarily be, pretty conclusory: It renders a verdict without much more than a gesture in the direction of an argument, and preempts a pending Inspector General investigation that would have produced a lengthy and serious account and analysis of Comey’s actions. While I’m inclined to agree with the memo’s critiques, underdeveloped as they are, they would be an extraordinarily thin basis on which to remove an FBI director, even if you thought they were the real basis. And they’re clearly not the real basis.
We are asked to believe that the decision to fire the FBI director — so abruptly he learned about it from a cable news chyron while out of D.C. — was based on a dashed off memo, and a response from the Attorney General, both issued the same day. We are asked to believe that it was motivated by Comey’s breaches of FBI protocol: First, in publicly criticizing Hillary Clinton, rather than letting Attorney General Loretta Lynch announce the decision that the former Secretary would not be indicted, and then in informing Congress that he had (fruitlessly, as it turned out) reopened the investigation into her e-mails. These are breaches both Trump and Sessions praised effusively at the time, with Sessions even declaring that Comey had an “absolute duty” to act as he did. All of them, of course, were well known long before Trump took office and chose to retain Comey.
Firing a FBI director is an extraordinary event, for which one expects strong, clear reasons.
The most charitable thing one can say about this narrative is that it is not even intended as a serious attempt to advance a genuine rationale. It is an attempt to be cute. Having been directed to concoct a reason to eliminate Comey, the Attorney General ran with a slapdash pastiche of Democrats’ complaints. Anyone who’s been on a long car trip with a sibling knows this gag: “Stop hitting yourself! Stop hitting yourself!” The only people even pretending to take this explanation seriously are those paid for the indignity.
Third: In another sense, that hastily cobbled together memo probably does reflect, indirectly, the authentic rationale for Comey’s cashiering. What Comey has demonstrated, after all, is that he is — sometimes to a fault — dedicated to preserving the appearance of the Bureau’s independence from improper political influence. He is willing to go over the heads of the political appointees to whom he reports when necessary to do so, publicly announcing the findings of an FBI investigation without vetting by the administration. To a substantial extent, Comey owes his current post to the fact that he was, famously willing to say “no” to the White House when he believed a president’s demands to be at odds with the law. This seems like a quality that Trump — who rages against the intransigence of “so-called judges” in staying his executive orders — would find intolerable in a subordinate under any circumstances. Against the backdrop of a protracted and embarrassing investigation into Russian electoral interference it must be downright terrifying. Unsurprisingly, press reports citing anonymous administration sources are already claiming that Trump’s rage at Comey’s unwillingness to take dictation — both on the Russia question and Trump’s claims about being wiretapped by his predecessor — are what ultimately doomed him.
My own suspicion — for reasons not worth delving into here — is that we’re unlikely to get any unambiguous, smoking gun proof of knowing collusion between senior Trump campaign officials and the Russian government, at least as far as electoral interference is concerned. But it also seems quite likely that an investigation into the campaign’s Russian ties — which on the public record alone raise more eyebrows than a Spock cosplay convention — would turn up any number of other unseemly or embarrassing facts the White House would prefer not to have aired. Comey has demonstrated that he would likely be prepared to disclose any findings he believed the American public had a right to know, whether or not they amounted to clearly indictable offenses — perhaps even over the objections of Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
Fourth: It is no longer possible for the FBI to conduct its investigation into the Trump campaign’s involvement in Russian electoral interference in any meaningfully independent way. Agents who might once have hoped that the FBI director would shield them from retaliation if their inquiry turned up truths inconvenient to the White House have now seen that director summarily and humiliatingly dismissed, for inconveniencing the White House. Nobody lower down the totem pole can possibly believe themselves safe from reprisal under these circumstances, and even people of great integrity have mortgages. Even if the next FBI director avoids any hint of improperly seeking to influence the investigation, the damage has been done; the sight of Comey’s head on a pike is influence enough. And that’s the optimistic scenario. That Trump chose to send Comey his pink slip in Los Angeles, with no warning, ought to at least prompt some inquiries into whether both his own files and those of the investigation remain secure. The manner of his termination may be merely one more humiliation, but it also had the side-effect of limiting his ability to take any last-minute steps to forestall tampering. This last is, I hope, a remote possibility, but it no longer seems inconceivable that this administration might believe it can quash the investigation, purge the case files, “move on,” and ride out a week or two of negative coverage. Either way, whatever remains of a congressional investigation once the FBI has been bent to the yoke would almost certainly be rendered a cosmetic exercise, dependent as it necessarily would be on raw materials provided by the intelligence community, even if we assume the political will to continue a serious inquiry. Only a genuinely independent investigation can at this point be credible.
Fifth: The fields of punditry are littered with failed predictions that this scandal, at last, will be the one Trump cannot survive, but it is nevertheless stunning how badly the White House seems to have misread the politics of this. Even many senior Republicans are balking at making excuses for the timing of Comey’s sacking. Trump, rather notoriously, seems to regard any form of criticism as personal betrayal — a declaration that one has joined the enemy camp. He therefore seems not to have grasped that, notwithstanding the array of harsh criticisms leveled at Comey by lawmakers of both parties, the director enjoyed broad bipartisan respect, built up over a long career. His actions over the past six months may have drawn down that reservoir of goodwill, but they have not exhausted it. Much has been made of Trump’s willingness to flout longstanding political norms, but what’s less often observed is that this appears to be as much a function of ignorance as brazenness. That is, it’s not just that he’s decided he can get away with breaking the rules — which thus far he has — but that he routinely seems to do so unwittingly, unaware of what the rules are. Many have expressed incredulity that the White House truly believed it could take this step without provoking a political firestorm; I find it all too plausible. As a result, they’ve been caught unprepared, without any credible story that would give members of his own party cover to defend the move with a straight face.
Sixth, and finally: The question of Comey’s replacement is hugely significant, and the confirmation hearings for the next FBI director are bound to be explosive. One consistent theme of Trump’s business career is that he has always viewed the law as a cudgel with which to bludgeon adversaries — whether it’s contractors coerced to accept half-payments by the prospect of ruinously expensive litigation or journalists mired in frivolous libel suits for printing unflattering sentences. The prospect of a Federal Bureau Investigation run in the same way ought to be genuinely frightening, and with Comey out of the way, it seems all too possible.
Julian Sanchez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and contributing editor for Reason magazine.
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Some Obvious Thoughts about the Comey Firing
New Post has been published on http://www.therightnewsnetwork.com/some-obvious-thoughts-about-the-comey-firing/
Some Obvious Thoughts about the Comey Firing
Julian Sanchez
As it says on the tin, most of what I have to say about the dismissal of FBI Director James Comey is obvious, and indeed, most of it has already been said well by others. But sometimes it’s worth rehearsing the obvious.
First: The position of FBI director has — since 1976, and following J. Edgar Hoover’s umbral half century tenure — been set for 10 years, in substantial part to keep it both symbolically and practically removed from the vicissitudes of electoral cycles. Formally, any president can, of course remove a director short of that term, but it’s happened exactly once, 24 years ago, when Bill Clinton sacked early-90s arcade screen mainstay William S. Sessions, for ethics violations. It is not, traditionally, one of those posts that just routinely swaps occupants when a new administration pitches its tent: Firing a director is an extraordinary event, for which one expects strong, clear reasons.
Second: The stated reasons for Comey’s dismissal are pretextual. They are so transparently, ludicrously pretextual that we should all feel at least a little bit insulted. The putative basis for Comey’s firing is a three page memo, dated May 9, faulting his public handling of the Hillary Clinton e-mail server investigation, and a recommendation from Attorney General Jeff Sessions, also dated May 9, that Comey be dismissed on that basis. The three-page memo levels a number of fundamentally valid criticisms. It is also, as perhaps three page memos must necessarily be, pretty conclusory: It renders a verdict without much more than a gesture in the direction of an argument, and preempts a pending Inspector General investigation that would have produced a lengthy and serious account and analysis of Comey’s actions. While I’m inclined to agree with the memo’s critiques, underdeveloped as they are, they would be an extraordinarily thin basis on which to remove an FBI director, even if you thought they were the real basis. And they’re clearly not the real basis.
We are asked to believe that the decision to fire the FBI director — so abruptly he learned about it from a cable news chyron while out of D.C. — was based on a dashed off memo, and a response from the Attorney General, both issued the same day. We are asked to believe that it was motivated by Comey’s breaches of FBI protocol: First, in publicly criticizing Hillary Clinton, rather than letting Attorney General Loretta Lynch announce the decision that the former Secretary would not be indicted, and then in informing Congress that he had (fruitlessly, as it turned out) reopened the investigation into her e-mails. These are breaches both Trump and Sessions praised effusively at the time, with Sessions even declaring that Comey had an “absolute duty” to act as he did. All of them, of course, were well known long before Trump took office and chose to retain Comey.
Firing a FBI director is an extraordinary event, for which one expects strong, clear reasons.
The most charitable thing one can say about this narrative is that it is not even intended as a serious attempt to advance a genuine rationale. It is an attempt to be cute. Having been directed to concoct a reason to eliminate Comey, the Attorney General ran with a slapdash pastiche of Democrats’ complaints. Anyone who’s been on a long car trip with a sibling knows this gag: “Stop hitting yourself! Stop hitting yourself!” The only people even pretending to take this explanation seriously are those paid for the indignity.
Third: In another sense, that hastily cobbled together memo probably does reflect, indirectly, the authentic rationale for Comey’s cashiering. What Comey has demonstrated, after all, is that he is — sometimes to a fault — dedicated to preserving the appearance of the Bureau’s independence from improper political influence. He is willing to go over the heads of the political appointees to whom he reports when necessary to do so, publicly announcing the findings of an FBI investigation without vetting by the administration. To a substantial extent, Comey owes his current post to the fact that he was, famously willing to say “no” to the White House when he believed a president’s demands to be at odds with the law. This seems like a quality that Trump — who rages against the intransigence of “so-called judges” in staying his executive orders — would find intolerable in a subordinate under any circumstances. Against the backdrop of a protracted and embarrassing investigation into Russian electoral interference it must be downright terrifying. Unsurprisingly, press reports citing anonymous administration sources are already claiming that Trump’s rage at Comey’s unwillingness to take dictation — both on the Russia question and Trump’s claims about being wiretapped by his predecessor — are what ultimately doomed him.
My own suspicion — for reasons not worth delving into here — is that we’re unlikely to get any unambiguous, smoking gun proof of knowing collusion between senior Trump campaign officials and the Russian government, at least as far as electoral interference is concerned. But it also seems quite likely that an investigation into the campaign’s Russian ties — which on the public record alone raise more eyebrows than a Spock cosplay convention — would turn up any number of other unseemly or embarrassing facts the White House would prefer not to have aired. Comey has demonstrated that he would likely be prepared to disclose any findings he believed the American public had a right to know, whether or not they amounted to clearly indictable offenses — perhaps even over the objections of Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
Fourth: It is no longer possible for the FBI to conduct its investigation into the Trump campaign’s involvement in Russian electoral interference in any meaningfully independent way. Agents who might once have hoped that the FBI director would shield them from retaliation if their inquiry turned up truths inconvenient to the White House have now seen that director summarily and humiliatingly dismissed, for inconveniencing the White House. Nobody lower down the totem pole can possibly believe themselves safe from reprisal under these circumstances, and even people of great integrity have mortgages. Even if the next FBI director avoids any hint of improperly seeking to influence the investigation, the damage has been done; the sight of Comey’s head on a pike is influence enough. And that’s the optimistic scenario. That Trump chose to send Comey his pink slip in Los Angeles, with no warning, ought to at least prompt some inquiries into whether both his own files and those of the investigation remain secure. The manner of his termination may be merely one more humiliation, but it also had the side-effect of limiting his ability to take any last-minute steps to forestall tampering. This last is, I hope, a remote possibility, but it no longer seems inconceivable that this administration might believe it can quash the investigation, purge the case files, “move on,” and ride out a week or two of negative coverage. Either way, whatever remains of a congressional investigation once the FBI has been bent to the yoke would almost certainly be rendered a cosmetic exercise, dependent as it necessarily would be on raw materials provided by the intelligence community, even if we assume the political will to continue a serious inquiry. Only a genuinely independent investigation can at this point be credible.
Fifth: The fields of punditry are littered with failed predictions that this scandal, at last, will be the one Trump cannot survive, but it is nevertheless stunning how badly the White House seems to have misread the politics of this. Even many senior Republicans are balking at making excuses for the timing of Comey’s sacking. Trump, rather notoriously, seems to regard any form of criticism as personal betrayal — a declaration that one has joined the enemy camp. He therefore seems not to have grasped that, notwithstanding the array of harsh criticisms leveled at Comey by lawmakers of both parties, the director enjoyed broad bipartisan respect, built up over a long career. His actions over the past six months may have drawn down that reservoir of goodwill, but they have not exhausted it. Much has been made of Trump’s willingness to flout longstanding political norms, but what’s less often observed is that this appears to be as much a function of ignorance as brazenness. That is, it’s not just that he’s decided he can get away with breaking the rules — which thus far he has — but that he routinely seems to do so unwittingly, unaware of what the rules are. Many have expressed incredulity that the White House truly believed it could take this step without provoking a political firestorm; I find it all too plausible. As a result, they’ve been caught unprepared, without any credible story that would give members of his own party cover to defend the move with a straight face.
Sixth, and finally: The question of Comey’s replacement is hugely significant, and the confirmation hearings for the next FBI director are bound to be explosive. One consistent theme of Trump’s business career is that he has always viewed the law as a cudgel with which to bludgeon adversaries — whether it’s contractors coerced to accept half-payments by the prospect of ruinously expensive litigation or journalists mired in frivolous libel suits for printing unflattering sentences. The prospect of a Federal Bureau Investigation run in the same way ought to be genuinely frightening, and with Comey out of the way, it seems all too possible.
Julian Sanchez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and contributing editor for Reason magazine.
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