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dracusfyre · 5 years

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Thank you for accepting the prompts !!

Nony! I haven’t forgotten you! I was hoping to get farther along with the entire story before I posted the first chapter, but I didn’t want you to think that I had abandoned your prompt. So here it is, a Medieval Fake Dating AU, Winteriron Style.

Far From Home (AO3)

Relationship: Tony/Bucky

Summary: Bucky, fleeing from the sinister organization of assassins known as Hydra, agrees to help kidnapped nobleman Tony get back to home. Unfortunately, it turns out that fleeing the Holy Land while hiding from both Hydra and the Ten Rings was the easy part…

Bucky put his head down and concentrated on his breathing and the rocky ground beneath his feet; one wrong step on the uncertain gravel and he’d be lost, recaptured by his pursuers. Because of the twists and turns of the wadi he was in, he couldn’t hear them behind him, but he knew they were close. They were also on horseback, which was his only advantage right now; the uneven ground of the dry river bed would slow them down and, if Bucky were lucky, give him enough time to find a place to hide. This part of the country was a maze of dry creek beds, awaiting the rainy season to fill up and temporarily turn this sunburnt, acrid region into a veritable Eden. It would take Hydra weeks to systematically search them all.

The risk, of course, was that Bucky would himself get lost in the maze and die unpleasantly of thirst and exposure, but he’d far prefer that than getting dragged back to the Old Man of the Mountain in chains for another round of “re-education.“

A shadow in the wall of the wadi caught Bucky’s eye and he changed course to investigate. Hidden from the main course of the canyon was a smaller river bed; following it up, scrambling over boulders and water-polished gravel, he traced his way to the irrigation channels of an abandoned farm, weedy and marked by stunted, twisted olive trees. The collapsing farmhouse was too obvious a hiding spot so he searched instead for the well that was likely somewhere on the property. He found it in a far corner, haphazardly boarded over, and with a prayer he slipped between the boards into the dark shadow of the well. Bracing his back against one wall and his feet on the other, he slowly and carefully made his way down, wondering just a little too late if there was going to be water at the bottom.

But it ended up dry, which was probably why the farm was abandoned. To his surprise, though, when Bucky dropped the last few feet to the bottom of the well he fell backwards when the ground moved under his feet.

“What the hell?” Bucky said, drawing his dagger as the darkness at the bottom of the well moved and became a lump, then a head and a face appeared.

“Who the hell are you?” The face hissed in French. “What are you doing here?”

“Uh, hiding?” Bucky answered in French as well, rusty though it was after years of speaking Arabic. "Who the hell are you?“

“You can’t hide here, I’m hiding here! Get your own spot.”

As Bucky’s eyes grew used to the darkness he realized that the man had been hiding under a dark blanket to conceal his pale skin from anyone looking into the well. “There’s room for us both,” he said. He looked up at the narrow sliver of sky visible from the top of the well. It would take far too long to climb back up, he would lose every minute of the lead he’d gained. “Please.”

“Ok, fine, get under here.” The man gestured and threw the blanket over both of them. It was hot and humid and smelled of sweat and dirt, but Bucky was grateful for it all the same, though it would provide scant protection if anyone decided to fire down into the well.

“Who are you hiding from?” Bucky said, voice so low it was almost inaudible. Every sense was strained for the sound of voices or horses, but so far the only sounds were birds calling to each other far in the distance.

“The Ten Rings,” the man said just as quietly. In the darkness, Bucky made a face. Sometimes rivals and sometimes allies of Hydra, the Ten Rings were a nasty bunch of jackals drawn from the dregs of every invading force that had thought to own the Holy Land. This man must have been very lucky or incredibly skilled to escape. “You?”

“Hydra.” Bucky slid his hand under his clothes and pulled out a flask of precious water. He took just enough of a sip to wet his mouth, dry from running, then he held it out in the direction of the voice. “Water?”

“God yes,” the man said, fumbling in the dark before he found Bucky’s hand. “Thank you.” Bucky winced as he heard the man take a large swallow, but he had no idea how long he’d been hiding here nor how far he had fled before he’d found the farm so he bit his tongue as the man handed the flask back.

They both fell silent for a while, listening to the world go by the dubious safety of their hiding spot, until Bucky could tell that the sun was starting to set. “Were you going to stay here all night, too?” Bucky asked, risking a glance outside the blanket. Sure enough, the sky was starting to darken.

“No.” The man pulled off the blanket and peered upwards. "To be honest, I didn’t really plan this far.“ It was still light enough that Bucky could finally get a good look at the man he’d been hiding with for hours; he definitely had the look of a captive, hollow cheeks and unkempt hair. Despite that, Bucky could tell that under the scraggly beard the man was not an unhandsome one. “I’m trying to make my way to Acre, how about you?”

“Anywhere, as long as it’s away.” Bucky tested the walls of the well, wondering if there was an easier way to climb up than the way he’d climbed down. “How were you going to get out of here?” Bucky asked. Underneath the man’s baggy, ill-fitting clothes Bucky could tell that he was shorter and slimmer than Bucky himself so there was no way he could have climbed down the same way Bucky did.

Sure enough, the man produced a pair of thin metal rods, thicker than a hoof pick but thinner than a chisel. With a little bit of effort, he was able to drive one of them into the dry and cracking plaster between the stones of the well. “It’s going to be hard, but easier than trying to climb up like a spider.”

“If you trust me, I will go first,” Bucky said, holding a hand out for the picks. “I can make the holes, and then you can climb up behind me.”

For a long moment the man was silent, eyeing Bucky warily. From what Bucky could tell, the picks were made of solid pig iron, which while it wasn’t gold or silver, it was still a valuable trading commodity now that every scrap of iron, good or not, was needed for weapons for the Holy War. Eventually, though, the man handed them over. “I’ll wait for you at the top and give them back,” Bucky promised, and he slowly made his way up, using the picks to chisel out hand- and foot-holds all the way up. When he got near the lip of the well he paused, even though his arms and legs were burning, and searched carefully for signs of people. Though the sun was already past the edge of the horizon, Bucky could tell that the farm was still deserted. “All clear,” he called back down, and after a few minutes the man’s head popped out of the top of the well.

“Thank God,” the man said, taking a deep breath and stretching his limbs, turning his face to the sky as if it were something he hadn’t seen in a long while. The North Star was already out, shining serenely in the rosy sky, and the moon was low and fat at the edge of the horizon. “By the way, my name is Antoine,” the man said, holding his hand out.

“Iacobus, but call me Bucky,” he said, shaking it and handing the picks back over. “Thank you,” he added. “For helping me.”

“Yeah, about that,” Antoine said, hugging his arms around himself; as the sun went down, the air had grown noticeably chillier. “If you’re not heading in any particular direction, how do you feel about helping me get to Acre? I mean, two heads are better than one, right? Maybe people will pay less attention to us if we travel together instead of apart.”

“Um…” Bucky tried to think of a polite way to say, “I don’t think you’ll be able to keep up with me,” because even if the man had been in good shape prior to his captivity, months of being held by the Ten Rings had undoubtedly taken a toll on him physically. Meanwhile, Bucky was at the peak of his training, able to jog for miles in the heat of the day without faltering and go days without food or sleep. On the other hand, the man had a point; fighters who traveled by themselves were treated with suspicion and mistrust and frequently driven out of towns at the first sign of trouble.

“I can pay you,” the man added when Bucky’s hesitation grew telling. “I know it doesn’t look like it right now, but if you can get me to the Knights Templar station near Acre, I’ll be able to pay you, I promise.”

At the mention of the Knights Templar, everything started to make more sense. “The Ten Rings were holding you for ransom,” Bucky said with dawning realization. That explained why a man like this, with his good, even teeth and flawless French, was being held by an organization like the Ten Rings.

“Yes. I mean, they were also making me work for them, but I am pretty sure they kidnapped me for ransom.” That explained the callouses on the man’s hands, which were certainly not something a fancy, ransom-worthy French noblemen would have. Bucky wondered what kind of work they’d had him doing.

“Yes, I’ll help you,” Bucky decided. Taking another look at the North Star, he turned and started walking. "Acre is this way,” he said over his shoulder. “But we should reach the closest town by daybreak, even if we have to take a rest.”

Antoine jogged a little to catch up. “You haven’t said how much you want in return for your aide.”

“Depends on who finds us first, Hydra or the Ten Rings,” Bucky said dryly. “I’ll tell you what: if either of us get killed on the way to Acre, I’ll give you a 100 percent discount.”

#tony stark #tony x bucky #winteriron #bucky barnes #tony stark x bucky barnes #medieval au #prompt fill

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perfectirishgifts · 3 years

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Huawei Just Gave You A Stunning New Reason To Switch Phones

New Post has been published on https://perfectirishgifts.com/huawei-just-gave-you-a-stunning-new-reason-to-switch-phones/

Huawei Just Gave You A Stunning New Reason To Switch Phones

Huawei has been keeping its head down through the furore of the U.S. election. Speculation as to how the tech giant’s punishment at the hands of Trump might change under Biden remains just that—speculation. The last thing it needed were stunning new headlines linking the company to China’s surveillance state, and so this week’s Washington Post story outing its deployment of facial recognition to “recognize Uighur minorities” was devastating.

The new report, which has “sparked concerns that the software could help fuel China’s crackdown on the mostly Muslim minority group,” risks being especially damaging to Huawei’s consumer business. Huawei, for a time the world’s largest smartphone maker this year, still outsells Apple despite crushing U.S. sanctions. Absent those restrictions, it would have taken Samsung’s crown for global sales on more than a temporary basis by now.

Huawei claims 600 million smartphone users—even with most of those in China and international users churning to other brands, it has likely retained between 100 and 200 million across key export markets. In reality, very few of those users have switched from Huawei because of U.S. allegations of Chinese state influence and control, although millions have already switched because of the loss of Google.

Huawei is countering with alternatives to full-fat Android and Google’s apps and services, with some 400 million monthly users across 170 countries for at least some of those services already secured. But where those users are outside China, the risk for Huawei is that they are more likely to be swayed by accusations of racial surveillance and alerts than 5G network cybersecurity warnings.

MORE FROM FORBESBeyond 5G: Huawei’s Links To Xinjiang And China’s Surveillance StateBy Zak Doffman

All that said, there are no real surprises in this new report. We know Huawei technology has been deployed by the authorities in China’s Xinjiang region, part of the surveillance machine used to subjugate its Muslim population under the pretence of counterterrorism. I first reported on Huawei’s links to Xinjiang back in April 2019, covering various agreements signed with Xinjiang’s authorities in 2018. Then last year, I reported on the release of the “China Cables” and claims by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that “Huawei’s work in Xinjiang is extensive and includes working directly with the Chinese Government’s public security bureaus in the region.”

This latest Washington Post story, based on a document unearthed by researchers at IPVM, is more of the same, showing that in 2018 Huawei worked with Megvii “to test an AI camera system that could scan faces in a crowd and estimate each person’s age, sex and ethnicity.” Clearly surveillance is surveillance, but the emotive use of AI-based facial recognition to detect ethnicity will raise bigger concerns, albeit we have seen stories on such technologies in Xinjiang before. If this particular system “detected the face of a member of the mostly Muslim minority group, the test report said, it could trigger a ‘Uighur alarm’.”

Last year, Huawei told me that the company “reaffirms that its technology—which is general purpose and based on global standards, complies with all applicable laws where it is sold. Huawei does not operate safe city networks on behalf of any customers.” As I pointed out at the time, adhering to the applicable laws in Xinjiang is an embarrassingly empty defense.

This time around, a Huawei spokesperson told the Post that this “is simply a test and it has not seen real-world application. Huawei only supplies general-purpose products for this kind of testing. We do not provide custom algorithms or applications.” Huawei has since said that “we take the allegations in the Washington Post’s article very seriously and are investigating the issues raised within.” For its part, Megvii says that “the company’s systems are not designed to target or label ethnic groups.”

No surprises either in the use of facial recognition type technologies for this kind of dystopian purpose—we’ve seen those stories before as well. China is an unchecked surveillance laboratory for its technology players—be they global leaders in the supply of security cameras or the AI unicorns that have been fuelled by billions from China and western fund managers, keen to tap into the fast growth that China’s closed market and untampered enthusiasm for monitoring and control brings.

MORE FROM FORBESChina Is Using Facial Recognition To Track Ethnic Minorities, Even In BeijingBy Zak Doffman

The irony with Huawei and Xinyang, is that its involvement figured surprisingly late in U.S. claims against the company. Even as other Chinese tech companies were being sanctioned for their own involvement in surveillance schemes targeting Uighurs, allegations against Huawei stuck to cybersecurity risks and alleged state control. Little had been written about its surveillance work. That has now changed, and, unlike the cybersecurity accusations, it is much, much harder to defend and deny.

But there’s a critical angle to this story that passes by unnoticed. Huawei doesn’t want to be peddling its technology to the authorities in Xinjiang. There’s very little money in it—unlike for China’s leading surveillance equipment manufacturers, certainly not enough to justify the dire publicity when news of its involvement leaks out. Consumer products drive Huawei’s growth and profitability, followed by 5G equipment. Huawei’s international business hangs in the balance—5G contracts under threat, U.S. sanctions cutting supply chains for phones and 5G equipment, its CFO still facing the threat of extradition to the U.S. The company doesn’t need any more stresses on its profit centers from these modestly-sized surveillance programs.

Huawei’s obvious move is to back away from Xinjiang, to withdraw its technologies from sale in the region, whether directly or through partners. But it cannot. For China’s best known tech giant to publicly distance itself from Xinjiang would contradict all Beijing’s claims about its security in the region. The government would likely be furious, and Huawei cannot run that risk, certainly not while it is heavily reliant on the support of the state in its political battles with the U.S. and the safe revenues from China’s 5G and other smart city investments.

And so, Huawei’s PR team needs to absorb another Xinjiang story that plays horribly in the West, risking a consumer backlash from all those smartphone users already reeling from the loss of Google and the potential lack of future flagships sporting the latest chipsets. Buying a phone from a company the Trump administration has gone into battle against is one thing, but where there are allegations of involvement in surveillance programs condemned on human rights grounds, that’s very different.

This story encapsulates the issues with China’s technologies and huge investments in its AI machine that will persist beyond the very public wrangling with the Trump administration. The threat to Huawei is that in Europe and elsewhere, critics are shifting from unprovable cyber allegations to this more emotive surveillance landscape, where it is harder for governments to defend their use of Huawei tech.

All of which goes to the potential damage this new report can create, which will play in the media to the very consumers Huawei needs to retain. When Barcelona soccer star Antoine Griezmann cuts his Huawei sponsorship “over Uighur Muslim identification reports,” you clearly have a spiralling problem. The argument for those millions of Huawei smartphone users to switch phones is as stark as it is simple. If the West doesn’t send a message to Chinese technology companies around participation in the more offensive elements of the country’s surveillance state, that’s a huge missed opportunity to try to effect change.

For its part, Huawei remains caught in a trap. It can’t turn its back on Beijing and exit Xinjiang, but nor can it ignore the emotive response elsewhere. The irony, though, is that the more U.S. sanctions bite, the more Huawei needs China’s support and the less likely it is to do the right thing in Xinjiang and risk provoking Beijing’s ire. In the wake of the U.S. blacklist, government and consumer sales in China have sustained Huawei as its export business has declined. So, don’t expect to see any changes anytime soon.

—

Disclosure: My company Digital Barriers develops AI-based analytics and surveillance technologies, including facial recognition. This technology is not sold in China, but the company does compete from time to time with China’s surveillance companies in other countries around the world.

From Cybersecurity in Perfectirishgifts

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mmjjbbaannkkss · 4 years

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2020 Jan 27-32 The Right Foundations

“A goal without a plan is just a wish.” Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

Wouldn't go to gym without eating, if I didn’t eat, I wouldn't go, and’ve been lucky, and won't go if depressed because I don't eat when I'm sad, I just stay at home in self-defeat. Obvious restless from dieting, losing sleep staying up an hour, or not getting to bed an hour earlier, or waking up an hour early, or an hour too early, that’s like four hours lost sleep, it damages proper thought -- carbs around/during workout has changed that.

Clearly not parallel to superheroes, but wow deciding to eat mid workout, on a timer after starting, to see if it quickens workout, does improve ability to break a sweat and get shit done. Still sick of bad miracle diets into trendy workouts, and realized training intensity needs carbs, as runners likely do too, and then replace glycogen after workout, and eat just enough carbs to fall asleep. Normalcy is easier with it, if intra-workout carbs are key (only tried it once) and gains/cut drops to 222lbs, I’ll test lean-bulk right after. Time will tell. Now that mid-workout food is good instead of groggy, hopefully better reps, gains, shorter session, “in modus bonus.”

If 18-25 might I suggest some heavy af 5-3-1 sets, or some weighted reps to infinity, until your target muscle burns ‘for reps, not PR’ as some say. Weakspots training without eating right-before (semi-fasted) soon kills getting any good reps even at all, no flexes, no PRs, half-assed and deenergized, and mental concentration shot, especially after giving up big breakfast. Malnourished clouds focus, no suns out, no guns out, kinda sorta.

https://www.instagram.com/kulturystykaonlinepl/

https://blog.insidetracker.com/eating-for-energy-racing-to-the-perfect-mid-workout

“Don’t Hit the Wall: During intense endurance workouts, your muscle glycogen can be depleted in as little as an hour. Once depleted, your body can only work at 50% of its maximal capacity. Your energy levels plummet and you feel extremely fatigued. Fortunately, proper mid-workout fueling can prevent you from bonking and keep you going strong.”

TLDR: https://www.insider.com/how-to-lose-fat-transform-body-for-life-essential-steps-2020-1 have a routine, focus on macronutrients, get enuf sleep, don’t overeat, hydrate;

TLDR https://www.bodybuilding.com/content/arnold-schwarzenegger-8-best-training-principles.html use your brain, train better than others, right exercises, heavy low reps, variety, train for the pump, work on weak spots, both learn and adapt,

Stats/Notes

Week 8 (all_x10_flex)

#43/48 Push-

Treadmill 15? > Shldr Press *10/10*2,30*2,50*2- > Hoist *10/25*3303550~ > Lat Raise *10/5*3,10*3 > Chest press *10/507090,91113- > Pec Deck *10/7085100*4? > BB Flat Bench *10/60*6-? > Pullover Press *10/30*4,40*2 > Rope triceps *10/40* > Dips *10/10-*6- > Twist (slow) *10/507090111315- > Treadmill/x

#44/48 Lite Pull 10*/

Treadmill 15/ Neutral Pulldown *10/85*3,100*3 > Cable 1-Arm Row S/25303550- > LR Lat Pulldown S/202735425060- > Pullover S/20*2,30*3,4050 > Shrugs S/100*6 > Row S/100*6~ > Preacher S/30405065(2) > Supine Curl S/2030*5 > Concentration curls S/101015152020- > Bow Draws L/R S/ > Treadmill cool-down / bpm

Should’ve gone easier/better at start, locked arm pulldowns were worst, bow draws not great, left lat pulldown meh, concentration curls best, was stiff b/w shoulders at start even tho warmed up, need a stretching routine;

#45 *10/x6, Heavy Legs, negreps;

Treadmill 15 min / bpm > Horiz *10/10*6 > Horizon Press *10/103050709011- > ½ Horiz s/10*5- > Leg Ext s/10,30*5- > Deadlift+Curl s/202030304040- > Leg Curl s/50,70*4? > Sit Heel Raise s/305070(2) > Cable Bends s/50*6LR > Rope Crunch s/7085*4-100- > Rev-row *10/7080*4,90- > Plank 60; > Treadmill ~100bmp/

Google music loud, not even HD; Broke a sweat thrice over; If you search enuf Romanian YouTube starts giving targeted commercials, i think it was asking me to visit a used car lot;

#46 C Lite Push

Treadmill 15min / Shldr Press *10/101030305050? > Lat Raise *10/(2x)10*6- > Hoist *10/35*6? > Chest press *10/507090(2) > DB Flat Bench *10/100*6 > Pec Deck *10/85100115(2) > Crossover *10/20*2,25*2,30,30-5- > Straight-arm pulldown *10/151520202525 > Rope pushdown *10/252530303535 > Twist *10/7090110130(2)? > Treadmill *10/x

Diet log: M coffee, 1C rice, chx thigh whole, M coffee, ~2C soy/wheat pancakes, L coffee, 1/2L b/taurine/creatine, 1/2L 20g whey, post workout 240lbs, over; 4 eggs, 1C+ rice, powdered parmesan; 1C+ greek “triple zero” yogurt; 1C fat free "refried" beans and two pieces bread;

Abs, front obliques, quads, soreish; red/english; demasiado café but needed the onesies via bad idea, waiting for food to cool, nerves inefficacy soy pancakes are sponge and fixer uppers… made eyed, too little or lottle, gotta up the carb game, bought some fat-free refried beans so that some of the fiber is already broken-down, have to eat all the rando grains and beans this winter anyway, and make a list of new stuffs to get before next autumn;

#47 Flex / C Pull-n

Treadmill warm-up 15 > Lat Pulldown *10/LR 25*2,40*4 > Low Row *10/100*6- > High Row *10/35,50*4,65- > Chinups/Pulldown *10/70,100*4,125- > Rear Deck Delts *10/55*2,70*4~ > Shrug *10/100*6? > EZ Curl *10/203040506060-5 > Preacher Curl 1-Arm *10/203030304050- > Prchr hammer *10/30*4,40*2- > Twist *10/ > Treadmill cooldown?

Ribs, R quad & L thigh stiff, refrijoles al arroz, con qro huevos, adding whey made it a bit thick in the tank;

Ch patty, olives, mustard, bread, cup water; back to sleep, 1C+ rice, 4 eggs, ½ L 20g whey, workout, some B/caffeine in 1L/2 water, post workout, cup rice, 1/2L 20g whey; whole ch thigh, 1C barley, black Hawaiian salt;

Cutting hard when the internet collectively keeps reminding me to go to the gym and be patient.

#48 Lite Legs (40set p.o.) 🍞 💧

Treadmill 15 min /bpm > Horizon 1-Leg *10/10*6-LR > Body Squat *10/x > Horizon Press *10/101030305050 > Stand Leg Curl *10/x > Side Bends *10/353550506565- > Leg Ext *10/101030305050- 🍞 💧HR > Leg Curl *10/3030505070-70- > Heel Raise *10/505070709090-L > Rope Crunch *10/5050606070 > Push Crunch *10/606070708080-? ~HR > Treadmill bpm 81!/ ½ 💧/6min 1.5HRS /15min

Bread definitely way to go easier, empty gym equipment, but still 30% faster, better reps, etc, a bought baguette, had angle vents, tore heel, et, halfway in hour, 5*15min sets by 12, superbueno, dunno 10min for reps or heavier next; don't even need carb at terminus, less nervous shock; and baguette dollar cost; ukno gonna try treadmill more without thirds;

C barley, 2 eggs, ½ L 20g whey, chunk of bread ~100cal, workout { ½ L taurine/B etc, chunk bread ~100c, ½ L,}, C barley, 2 eggs, ½ L 20g whey; ⅓ refried beans, pita; C barley, melt cheese;

According to this - https://www.dietdoctor.com/low-carb/20-50-how-much - the chunk-o-bread is about 100 carbs, I’d been saying that my carb requirements had gone up, but now maybe just the workout demand was getting higher without eating low GI val tree bark lel,

Sunday

Bread, bread, slice of pizza, ½ L 20g whey, 4 tacos, 2 cups juice; 4 mini tacos; pb grapes, mini pop, spinach burger mini pop; Pushups PR every morning?

#blog #workout #training #over30style #diet #cutting #carbs #fitness #rebuit #advice #opinion

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squaleboy · 5 years

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Success as a Fragile Construction

For I have a single definition of success: you look in the mirror every evening, and wonder if you disappoint the person you were at 18, right before the age when people start getting corrupted by life. Let him or her be the only judge; not your reputation, not your wealth, not your standing in the community, not the decorations on your lapel. If you do not feel ashamed, you are successful. All other definitions of success are modern constructions; fragile modern constructions.

The Ancient Greeks’ main definition of success was to have had a heroic death. But as we live in a less martial world, even in Lebanon, we can adapt our definition of success as having taken a heroic route for the benefits of the collective, as narrowly or broadly defined collective as you wish. So long as all you do is not all for you: secret societies used to have a rule for uomo d’onore: you do something for yourself and something for other members. And virtue is inseparable from courage. Like the courage to do something unpopular. Take risks for the benefit of others; it doesn’t have to be humanity, it can be helping say Beirut Madinati or the local municipality. The more micro, the less abstract, the better.

Success requires absence of fragility. I’ve seen billionaires terrified of journalists, wealthy people who felt crushed because their brother in law got very rich, academics with Nobel who were scared of comments on the web. The higher you go, the worse the fall. For almost all people I’ve met, external success came with increased fragility and a heightened state of insecurity. The worst are those “former something” types with 4 page CVs who, after leaving office, and addicted to the attention of servile bureaucrats, find themselves discarded: as if you went home one evening to discover that someone suddenly emptied your house of all its furniture.

But self-respect is robust –that’s the approach of the Stoic school, which incidentally was a Phoenician movement. (If someone wonders who are the Stoics I’d say Buddhists with an attitude problem, imagine someone both very Lebanese and Buddhist). I’ve seen robust people in my village Amioun who were proud of being local citizens involved in their tribe; they go to bed proud and wake up happy. Or Russian mathematicians who, during the difficult post-Soviet transition period, were proud of making $200 a month and do work that is appreciated by twenty people –and considered that showing one’s decorations –or accepting awards –were a sign of weakness and lack of confidence in one’s contributions. And, believe it or not, some wealthy people are robust –but you just don’t hear about them because they are not socialites, live next door, and drink Arak baladi not Veuve Cliquot.

Personal History

Now a bit of my own history. Don’t tell anyone, but all the stuff you think comes from deep philosophical reflection is dressed up: it all comes from an ineradicable gambling instinct –just imagine a compulsive gambler playing high priest. People don’t like to believe it: my education came from trading and risk taking with some help from school.

I was lucky to have a background closer to that of a classical Mediterranean or a Medieval European than a modern citizen. For I was born in a library –my parents had an account at Librarie Antoine in Bab Ed Driss and a big library. They bought more books than they could read so they were happy someone was reading the books for them. Also my father knew every erudite person in Lebanon, particularly historians. So we often had Jesuit priests at dinner and because of their multidisciplinary erudition they were the only role models for me: my idea of education is to have professors just to eat with them and ask them questions. So I valued erudition over intelligence –and still do. I initially wanted to be a writer and philosopher; one needs to read tons of books for that –you had no edge if your knowledge was limited to the Lebanese Baccalaureat program. So I skipped school most days and, starting at age 14, started reading voraciously. Later I discovered an inability to concentrate on subjects others imposed on me. I separated school for credentials and reading for one’s edification.

First Break

I drifted a bit, with no focus, and remained on page 8 of the Great Lebanese Novel until the age of 23 (my novel was advancing at a rate of one page per year). Then I got a break on the day when at Wharton I accidentally discovered probability theory and became obsessed with it. But, as I said it did not come from lofty philosophizing and scientific hunger, only from the thrills and hormonal flush one gets while taking risks in the markets. A friend had told me about complex financial derivatives and I decided to make a career in them. It was a combination of trading and complex mathematics. The field was new and uncharted. But they were very, very difficult mathematically.

Greed and fear are teachers. I was like people with addictions who have a below average intelligence but were capable of the most ingenious tricks to procure their drugs. When there was risk on the line, suddenly a second brain in me manifested itself and these theorems became interesting. When there is fire, you will run faster than in any competition. Then I became dumb again when there was no real action. Furthermore, as a trader the mathematics we used was adapted to our problem, like a glove, unlike academics with a theory looking for some application. Applying math to practical problems was another business altogether; it meant a deep understanding of the problem before putting the equations on it. So I found getting a doctorate after 12 years in quantitative finance much, much easier than getting simpler degrees.

I discovered along the way that the economists and social scientists were almost always applying the wrong math to the problems, what became later the theme of The Black Swan. Their statistical tools were not just wrong, they were outrageously wrong –they still are. Their methods underestimated “tail events”, those rare but consequential jumps. They were too arrogant to accept it. This discovery allowed me to achieve financial independence in my twenties, after the crash of 1987.

So I felt I had something to say in the way we used probability, and how we think about, and manage uncertainty. Probability is the logic of science and philosophy; it touches on many subjects: theology, philosophy, psychology, science, and the more mundane risk engineering –incidentally probability was born in the Levant in the 8th Century as 3elm el musadafat, used to decrypt messages. So the past thirty years for me have been flaneuring across subjects, bothering people along the way, pulling pranks on people who take themselves seriously. You take a medical paper and ask some scientist full of himself how he interprets the “p-value”; the author will be terrorized.

The International Association of Name Droppers

The second break came to me when the crisis of 2008 happened and felt vindicated and made another bundle putting my neck on the line. But fame came with the crisis and I discovered that I hated fame, famous people, caviar, champagne, complicated food, expensive wine and, mostly wine commentators. I like mezze with local Arak baladi, including squid in its ink (sabbidej), no less no more, and wealthy people tend to have their preferences dictated by a system meant to milk them. My own preferences became obvious to me when after a dinner in a Michelin 3 stars with stuffy and boring rich people, I stopped by Nick’s pizza for a $6.95 dish and I haven’t had a Michelin meal since, or anything with complex names. I am particularly allergic to people who like themselves to be surrounded by famous people, the IAND (International Association of Name Droppers). So, after about a year in the limelight I went back to the seclusion of my library (in Amioun or near NY), and started a new career as a researcher doing technical work. When I read my bio I always feel it is that of another person: it describes what I did not what I am doing and would like to do.

On Advice and Skin in the Game

I am just describing my life. I hesitate to give advice because every major single piece of advice I was given turned out to be wrong and I am glad I didn’t follow them. I was told to focus and I never did. I was told to never procrastinate and I waited 20 years for The Black Swan and it sold 3 million copies. I was told to avoid putting fictional characters in my books and I did put in Nero Tulip and Fat Tony because I got bored otherwise. I was told to not insult the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal; the more I insulted them the nicer they were to me and the more they solicited Op-Eds. I was told to avoid lifting weights for a back pain and became a weightlifter: never had a back problem since.

If I had to relive my life I would be even more stubborn and uncompromising than I have been.

One should never do anything without skin in the game. If you give advice, you need to be exposed to losses from it. It is an extension to the silver rule. So I will tell you what tricks I employ.

• Do not read the newspapers, or follow the news in any way or form. To be convinced, try reading last years’ newspaper. It doesn’t mean ignore the news; it means that you go from the events to the news, not the other way around.

• If something is nonsense, you say it and say it loud. You will be harmed a little but will be antifragile — in the long run people who need to trust you will trust you.

When I was still an obscure author, I walked out of a studio Bloomberg Radio during an interview because the interviewer was saying nonsense. Three years later Bloomberg Magazine did a cover story on me. Every economist on the planet hates me (except of course those of AUB).

I’ve suffered two smear campaigns, and encouraged by the most courageous Lebanese ever since Hannibal, Ralph Nader, I took reputational risks by exposing large evil corporations such as Monsanto, and suffered a smear campaign for it.

Treat the doorman with a bit more respect than the big boss.

If something is boring, avoid it –save taxes and visits to the mother in law. Why? Because your biology is the best nonsense detector; use it to navigate your life.

The No-Nos

There are a lot of such rules in my books, so for now let me finish with a few maxims. The following are no-nos:

Muscles without strength,

friendship without trust,

opinion without risk,

change without aesthetics,

age without values,

food without nourishment,

power without fairness,

facts without rigor,

degrees without erudition,

militarism without fortitude,

progress without civilization,

complication without depth,

fluency without content,

and, most of all, religion without tolerance.

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