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2022 Victorian State Election

As the majority of the election comes to a close for the lower house-- only 9 seats found to be in doubt, which will be decided by the pre-poll and postal votes as they begin to be counted over the coming days, Daniel Andrews has secured a historic third term as Victorian Premier and leader of the Victorian Labor Party. This means that, unless interrupted by a resignation or retirement from Andrews, Victoria will have had an Andrews Labor government from 2014-2026.

This state election was widely seen as a complicated and uncertain one; as typical of Australian elections, widespread media narratives, particularly those posed by News Corp associated orgs, all presented a tight race, which was reinforced by several Liberal Party officials, including opposition leader Matthew Guy, who all spoke positively on the campaign and claimed that they held a clear chance at winning majority government. As the votes came in, however, this was shown to be not only inaccurate, but bordering on delusional-- to put it in the words of the Victoria Votes ABC panel: "The Liberal Party needs to hire a new pollster".

Despite polls and front-cover claims from the majority of Australian news organizations, and the perspective provided by the Victorian Liberals, there was, in fact, a further loss of popularity for the Liberals. As currently standing, it is likely that Labor will retain the number of seats they had prior to the election, at around double the Liberal National Coalition's seats.

Key Quotes of Tonight:

Richard Willingham: "it's a raw moment for Matthew Guy, but he would know his political career is essentially over."

Ellen Sandell: "This shows that the old two-party system is dying, [...] we're seeing Labor get elected on Greens preferences."

Ellen Sandell: "If you look at something like Northcote, if you look at the Green vote, plus the Socialist vote, we're actually over the Labor party, [...] and what this means is that now, the Labor party can't get elected in the inner-city without the Liberal vote."

Kos Samaras: "[Liberals] are possibly a political movement that no longer talks to a significant number of Victorians, full stop. Political parties come and go; it's a historical fact, and I think that the Liberal Party is pitching to a constituency that doesn't live in Victoria all that much."

Major Key Points

The LNP vastly overestimated the presence of anti-Daniel Andrews sentiment in communities after COVID-19 lock-downs.

Matthew Guy will likely not remain Opposition leader for long; two consecutive losses as leader of the opposition will likely be enough to eject him from the position.

The results of the federal election provided an incredibly accurate prediction of how the Victorian State Election would result.

The LNP suffered greatly due to a combination of preferencing far-right candidates and preselecting ultra-conservative candidates for their own campaigns, which made them less appealing to voters.

While Victoria is broadly moving to the left (a ALP government with progressive values, an increasing Greens vote, etc.), voters are leaving the major parties either in the direction of groups such as the Victorian Greens or Victorian Socialists, or in the direction of "alt-right parties", as described by Victoria Votes panelists.

The ALP has largely benefited from their presentation of progressive politics, largely through the adoption of Greens policies; this has been regarded, as said by Ellen Sandell, as a victory for the Greens party.

My Analysis

The results of the Victorian 2022 State Election have compounded a set of pre-existing trends that I had begun to recognize in the federal election; some of these trends had been reported more widely, while others have been more personal evaluations of politics.

Firstly: Australians are rejecting the major parties; in the federal election, only a third of the country voted for an ALP government, yet that government was formed in the majority-- furthermore, these votes are going to three key categories:

Alt-right parties (One Nation, United Australia, DLP, etc.)

Teal independents

Progressive minor parties (Greens, Socialists, Animal Justice, etc.)

This trend, which was first present in the 2022 Federal election, mostly continued into the state election-- the state is now forming a stable majority ALP government currently at around 37.1% of the vote-- the opposition holds a total of 34.6%. The rest is split between an 11.2% Greens and 17.1% Other vote.

Within the Other vote, the first category of minority party voters are clearly present, with far-right parties such as Family First, Freedom Party Victoria, and Labour DLP getting a combined 5.7%.

The second category of minority party voters can be seen through the 6% Independent vote; interestingly, the number of independents in the lower house will have dropped by the end of this election, as two key rural independents were ousted by successful Nationals campaigns. Contrarily, however, traditionally Liberal electorates faced major competition from independents in the east, particularly in the case of Hawthorne, a state electorate within the federal electorate of Kooyong, where independent Melissa Lowe followed the example of Monique Ryan in the Federal Election and is poised to defeat John Pesutto, who was vying to retake the seat after having it taken by ALP member John Kennedy in 2018.

The third category of minority voters can be seen through the 11.2% Greens vote, 1.4% Victorian Socialist vote, and 2.3% Animal Justice vote, totalling to a 14.9% vote.

By looking at the state of Australian politics-- preferences by the LNP towards alt-right candidates, hyper-conservative News Corp biases, and rampaging issues of misogyny, racism, inequality, corruption, and mistrust in each consecutive government, whether it be at the state or federal level, it is easily identifiable how this escape from the major parties has occurred, and particularly through explorations of COVID-19 and the impact of it on working class families, as well as the manipulation of the pandemic by far-right groups to promote fascist ideologies, it is understandable how there has been an increase in the alt-right vote.

While the expansion of the fascist vote in Australia is concerning, there is a hopeful counter-movement rising in the establishment and rapid expansion of leftist organisations such as the Victorian Socialists; while the Victorian Socialists were unable to take any lower house seats, and it is too early to call whether they were successful in their move to disrupt far right politician Bernie Finn's place in the Western Metro legislative council ticket, it is important to acknowledge the success of what could soon be one of the most successful Australian socialist movements in decades.

Founded in 2018, and first running in the Victorian state election that same year, the Victorian Socialists are an expansion of various socialist groups in Australia, particularly the Socialist Alternative; while they lacked major presence during the 2018 election, they packed genuine influence in the 2022 Victorian election. As expressed by Ellen Sandell's previously mentioned quote, the Victorian Socialists were actually responsible for the election of a fourth Greens member through preferences, and if their fight to overtake Bernie Finn in the upper house is successful, they would be poised to put one of the first socialists in Australian government in 70 years.

In a similar vein of recognising the influence of progressivism in Victoria, it is important to acknowledge the key role that progressive movements such as the Victorian Greens have played in influencing the political attitudes of the Andrew's government, and how said part can be key in making the best out of a ALP majority government. Climate commitments and the commitment to re-establish the SEC, for instance, both directly link back to the policy proposals of the Victorian Greens. Additionally, here is hope from Greens members that, despite not succeeding in creating a hung parliament with the Greens holding balance of power, their influence could be key in further strengthening environmental policies, and I am personally hopeful that the influence of the Victorian Greens could result in the expansion and improvement of the current proposed SEC, which is highly flawed and needs major changes before it is able to succeed.

As stated by members of the ABC Victoria Votes panel, it is highly likely that the catastrophic losses experienced at both the 2018 and 2022 state elections by the LNP are symptoms not of a failure to recognise issues within their party's campaign, but rather a symptom of a party that is no longer relevant or necessary within the state.

For progressives, the ALP majority government is not the ideal outcome, but it is one that can be utilised to the advancement of leftist politics, and the success of the Andrews government, even if by an arguably thin margin, is proof that Victoria could remain safe from the far-right toxicity attempting to enter Australian politics through the actions of the LNP.

This post may be followed up on in the near future; for now though, I will leave my commentary as is, because I need sleep. I have just done 9 hours of volunteering for election day, followed by a 5 1/2 hour watch of the election results, and now, the 1 1/2 hours that it has taken to fully write this analysis. Thank you for reading, and I hope my analysis was one of value. :)

#vicpol #auspol #australia #australian politics #victorian politics #politics #elections #voting #democracy #leftism #socialism #victorian socialists #analysis #political analysis

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