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rivalsforlife · 2 years

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I Once Again Attempt (And Likely Fail) To Predict An AA7 Announcement

Hey there. So it’s been about nine months since my last post trying to predict when AA7 would be announced, wherein I said I expected an announcement in September/October 2021, and it’s now May 2022 and I still look like a fool. So, in an attempt to sound smart eventually (which really just means I’ll be digging myself further into this hole I’ve found myself in) I’m going to go attempt a guess again.

In this post I will be discussing a few possibilities in which we could expect an AA7 announcement, and hoping that random chance will finally make me look smart. I will also be discussing an apparent “leak” of dubious credibility that may give some more information. And I’ll throw in a few cents about what I expect from the series in the coming years, just for fun. All the while hoping that tumblr doesn’t randomly delete my post again.

And to spare you all, the rest will be under the "keep reading”.

Let’s Pin Down A Very Wide Time Range

The first thing I want to do is get a wide range of when we might expect an announcement, based off of the announcement -> release time frames for new games (not rereleases) in the past decade. (We’re really reaching here.)

AAI: announced April 9 2008, released May 28 2009.

AAI2: announced September 7 2010; TGS this year was 16-19th, therefore it was announced in Famitsu the week before TGS. It was released February 3 2011.

DD: announced January 29 2012 as part of the 10th anniversary event. Released July 25 2013.

DGS: announced April 22 2014, released July 9 2015.

SOJ: announced September 1 2015; TGS this year was 17-20th, so it was announced in Famitsu about two weeks before the event. Released June 9 2016.

DGS2: announced during TGS 2016, on September 17. Released August 3 2017.

Overall, the shortest announcement -> release period this past decade and a bit is AAI2′s five month period from September 2010 to February 2011. The longest is Dual Destinies’ year and a half. I’m not counting rereleases in here because those tend to be shorter (for instance, Chronicles took three months).

For purposes of this post, I’m going to assume an announcement -> release period of about nine months, because that’s what Spirit of Justice, the most recent mainline game, had. As I recall, Dual Destinies was announced at a 10th anniversary event, and was just a title reveal. (According to wikipedia, it was initially announced in 2007, but I’m not counting that because that’s not a real concrete announcement by the sounds of it.) Spirit of Justice’s announcement was more substantial (a spread in Famitsu, a Japanese gaming magazine) and therefore I’ll be counting that one.

But of course, an announcement to release period means nothing when we know neither announcement nor release. The only source of any sort of credibility I could find about when we can expect an AA7 release was from a leaker whose credibility seems to be rather contested. I do not follow gaming news most of the time and I do not know the history of this person’s reliability. So please take this next part not as confirmation and definitely not as credible as confirmed leaks like the 2020 Capcom ones.

The full post is here, but I will post the relevant part for your convenience:

Capcom has a pretty good 2022 planned, it seems. Most of their major franchises have something big planned, and Ace Attorney will probably not be an exception. Ace Attorney 7 is indeed in the works, and will be announced in the coming months. It's been speculated that there will be a new protagonist, but nope, I don't think so. Phoenix and Maya will return for a whole new batch of cases. Shu Takumi will direct this new installment and I predict that it'll release worldwide in early 2023.

Overall, this isn’t something completely unreasonable with what we know. The November 2020 Capcom leaks did confirm that AA7 was in the works, even though we’re way past the supposed release period of October-December 2021. (Presumably, we can blame our friend COVID for that.) Assuming it hasn’t been cancelled, it coming this year or next is a reasonable guess. The content, too, seems pretty standard to Capcom. Phoenix and Maya being the leads again will be disappointing to Apollo fans who are still waiting for a proper sequel to AA4 or Athena fans wanting literally anything about her, but fits with Capcom’s general attitude towards 5 and 6 of “go for as much trilogy nostalgia as possible.” (Sorry. I’ll try to keep my opinions out of the rest of this. No guarantees.)

Similarly, Shu Takumi coming back to direct also makes the most sense. We have no idea what he’s been working on since the release of DGS2 five years ago. And with Yamazaki, who did 5, 6, and the AAIs, having left Capcom, bringing back the original director is really the thing that makes the most sense. This should make Takumi fans happy. I *am* admittedly curious about how he feels about 5 and 6 and how he’s going to handle the content introduced in those games.

But we don’t really care about the content in this post, we care about the dates. This leak speculates an AA7 release in early 2023 with an announcement “in the coming months”, which is extremely vague, as I’m sure it should be if you’re leaking something that can be changed at any time. This post was made in early January 2022, for reference, so here in May we are well into “the coming months” with no real sign of an announcement. But, assuming my general guess of “nine month announcement -> release period” and assuming early 2023 is anywhere from January-June (a very generous range), we could see an announcement any time from now to September 2022.

Again, a very generous range.

It’s also relevant to point out that this is a “worldwide release in early 2023″. Typically, AA games have taken a few more months to come out worldwide compared to a Japan-only release, but this has changed with Great Ace Attorney Chronicles (wherein the English release was actually two days earlier than the Japanese, at least in the Americas.) However, for the purposes of this post, I will assume that worldwide and Japanese releases are either synchronous or close enough that it doesn’t matter.

But of course, “now to September” is way too broad for any actual concrete predictions. I’m going to predict a few events/times that I personally think are likely times for an announcement. And probably get all of them wrong. :/

Option 1: THIS WEDNESDAY, MAY 18TH 2022

Disclaimer: This is not based on anything other than I think it would be extremely funny.

So. For those of you who weren’t here last year: Capcom had an orchestra concert April 10, 2021. This concert was streamed online because of the ongoing pandemic. The concert heavily contained music from the as-of-yet unannounced Great Ace Attorney Chronicles, and included the English version of the title and a few localized names from the leaks.

This, everyone thought, was an opportune moment for the announcement of Chronicles, which we all knew was coming from the leaks. It’s a concert featuring TGAA music!

The concert passes. No announcement, to the shock of everyone.

April 21st 2021, a random Wednesday morning, the official Ace Attorney twitter accounts post an announcement for The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles, instead of the fan event a week and a half prior. Everyone wonders why they just didn’t do it at the concert.

Jump ahead a year. May 7th, 2022, Capcom has an orchestra concert. The concert contains music from all games in the series (except aai :( and pl vs pw). There is no announcement.

I just think it would be extremely funny if they pull the same thing and announce it on May 18th just after another fan event. Like, who decides that’s a good idea.

Option 2: A 20TH ANNIVERSARY EVENT

“But Grace,” you might be saying, “wasn’t the concert a 20th anniversary event? And isn’t there no 20th anniversary event currently in the works?” you may be right. but let me explain my reasoning.

Ace Attorney has, to my knowledge, run anniversary events for both the 10th and 15th anniversaries. The 10th anniversary event was January 29th 2012 (though I cannot find a site or official record of it, this is from wikipedia’s DD announcement). And the 15th anniversary event was January 22nd 2017. These correspond to about “late January following the anniversary date (October 12th)”.

As for concerts? The 15th anniversary concert was May 6th 2017. If that sounds a little familiar, May 7th 2022 (the first Saturday in May following the anniversary date) was the day of the 20th anniversary concert.

My theory is this: Capcom intended for there to be a 20th anniversary event in late January 2022. This was not announced and postponed because of pandemic concerns (it was around the time Omicron was taking off, which was a lot of uncertainty.) The 15th anniversary was announced September 17 2016, during TGS. AA did not show up at 2021′s TGS, and again, this was in the middle of pandemic uncertainty. This is a reasonable assumption; the previous events were held in person. Already, they’ve had to cancel the stage play Turnabout Parallel World twice because of the pandemic. They may not have wanted to take the risk, given the situation in late January.

But now, with things being... well, I definitely don’t want to say the pandemic is over, but with more people being vaccinated and things opening enough for them to hold the concert in person, maybe they’d reconsider holding the 20th anniversary event for a little celebration. No idea when that would be. No idea how much notice there would be. But that is a reasonable time, assuming it happens, for a game announcement.

... Or the week after the event. That’s also a possibility.

Option 3: ... E3?

Honestly I’m not really buying this one. E3 is a typical place for game announcements, but Ace Attorney has to my knowledge never announced anything at E3. And furthermore, E3 isn’t really officially happening in any capacity. There are rumors that Nintendo would do a massive Nintendo Direct around E3 time anyways, which is the most likely place within E3 for an AA announcement unless Capcom is doing their own separate thing (which I have not seen any indication of).

This is really just based on “Games are sometimes announced at E3″ and I don’t think it’s likely at all, but I wanted to cover the basics just to be safe.

Option 4: THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY TIMES TOKYO GAME SHOW CAN FAIL ME

Tokyo Game Show is my go-to prediction for a new AA announcement every year since 2018′s “unmissable announcement”. And I firmly believe that fifth time is the charm! I Do Not Learn From My Mistakes! And I Still Think That TGS 2022 Is My Year!

This is the one I think is most likely. It falls at the end of my range of “now to September 2022″. Either during or prior to TGS is the most common place for Ace Attorney games to be announced, with 3/6 of the games I covered above being either announced during TGS or in the leadup to it through Famitsu. I still think this is the time. I still think this is the place. September is the month of disappointment but perhaps, this once, it will bring me joy.

Apparently this’ll be September 15th-18th; meaning an announcement in the first few weeks of September (or perhaps late August) is a likelihood. And now that I said it, it probably won’t come true. :(

Option 5: SOME RANDOM DAY OUT OF NOWHERE

Timing has no meaning.

Option 6: WE’RE NEVER GETTING AN AA7. GIVE UP AND ACCEPT YOUR FATE.

And with that, I have covered every possibility. I now cannot physically be wrong. Finally, Capcom, I have outsmarted you.

A Place For General Speculation

Of course, all this is covering AA7. I made a post a couple months ago about some possibilities for a 456 port given a recent trademark for “Apollo Justice”, though that’s inconclusive.

There’s also, of course, the possibility of an eventual DGS3/TGAA3, given the success of Chronicles on modern platforms. Personally, I doubt this would come out before AA7 and 456 ports. I plan to make a post covering that stuff....... someday. Maybe. Eventually.

But, if this leak I discussed in the post is true and Takumi is the writer for AA7, that opens up a few interesting possibilities. It could mean Takumi is going back to being the primary mainline writer, meaning that TGAA would be taken over by a new director. This would give Capcom the ability to be working on a “mainline” and “spinoff” game at any given time and kind of alternate them (sort of like the 2009-2017 period of more or less interchanging mainline games with Investigations/Great games.) This... could be interesting. Takumi hasn’t worked on mainline for quite a while. I have no idea if DD and SOJ at all line up with his vision. I don’t know what he planned after AA4. He could try to branch off of plot points introduced in DD and SOJ, or he could ignore them completely and go for an AA4 followup, or he could ignore everything and do a “soft reboot” with Phoenix and Maya.

Similarly, the possibility of Takumi not on TGAA raises some interesting questions. Without spoiling anything, the way TGAA wraps up is pretty tidy. While I loved the games, I’m not dying for a sequel or followup on the protagonists. And maybe Takumi feels the same way - he didn’t seem to want to continue the story of Phoenix & Co after the trilogy, which is why AA4 tried to go with an all new cast. Maybe he doesn’t have any more ideas for Ryunosuke and Susato, but a new writer could come up with some adventures for them, which could be good or suck a lot. We’d have no way of knowing.

Also, it is possible that Takumi is working on AA7 now but will switch back to TGAA3 if one gets greenlighted - there’s no reason to believe they thought they’d be doing another TGAA at the time of the capcom leaks and aa7 development.

Overall, for future games in the series, I’m anticipating AA7 is next. Assuming they made some progress pre-pandemic and have been slowly putting it together over the past two years and they’ve *got* to be close to an announcement time now. Following that, I think that the relative success of TGAA and the demise of the 3DS eShop mean that they’d want to work on a 456 port to come next, and maybe, eventually, a TGAA3. No sign of investigations ports though, because I have given up on expecting a miracle, and Capcom hates my guts.

If you read all of this, thanks! I’d always be interested to hear what other people think about my speculation.

TL;DR:

- I once again am expecting an AA7 announcement this year. I think that Tokyo Game Show is still the most likely, though there are softer possibilities for Very Soon, E3-range, or an as-of-yet unannounced 20th anniversary event.

- An unconfirmed leak of dubious credibility says that AA7 will be coming out early 2023, starring Phoenix and Maya and written by Takumi. Again, the credibility of this is unknown, so definitely don’t take it as confirmation of any sort, or any more reliable than anything I’ve said here.

- If Takumi does come back to mainline, we might get a new writer for any TGAA sequels. If we are getting a TGAA3, I’d expect it to be after AA7 and a 456 port at the very least.

- I Am So Normal. I Am So Completely Normal Right Now.

- I really need to stop making these kinds of posts because it’s so embarrassing when I’m wrong, but I’m going ahead and doing it anyway.

#aa7 speculation #ace attorney #let's go wednesday let's go

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fuckyeahvanhalen86-95 · 2 years

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Is former Van Halen singer David Lee Roth holding up the potential Van Halen tribute tour or concert first mentioned by ex-Metallica bassist Jason Newsted in an interview this year? According to rock radio personality Eddie Trunk, that is indeed the case.

In April, Newsted suggested the trek was to feature him and guitarist Joe Satriani (a member of Chickenfoot with Sammy Hagar, another former Van Halen singer) with Alex Van Halen, Van Halen's surviving drummer and the brother of their late bandleader, Eddie Van Halen.

But such a Van Halen tribute may not come together at all as its launch, as Trunk told Sirius XM listeners last Friday (July 1), hinges on Roth's agreement.

On his rock show Trunk Nation, per Blabbermouth, Trunk said a "very reliable source" told him "the hold-up on the Van Halen- anything happening is a lot of it falling on David Lee Roth. That David Lee Roth to no surprise, it shouldn't be a surprise to anybody is a difficult guy to wrangle, a difficult guy to get an answer on, a difficult guy to get focused on anything, a difficult guy to get to sign off on anything."

Trunk continued, "He is all over the map, as you would expect and have seen throughout history, and that the big hold up in anything happening with Van Halen is not Alex, who wants to do it and is trying. It's actually Roth who needs to sign off and be involved. … The stumbling block is trying to get Alex and Dave on the same page and Dave wanting to do this and [figure out] how they're gonna do it."

In April, Newsted told The Palm Beach Post that Alex had personally selected him and Satch. The bassist said he agreed to travel to California to jam with them and see how it felt. But he admitted he sensed it would be impossible to do justice to Van Halen's legacy.

"How could you [do it justice]?" Newsted posited. "There's nobody that can top it, so how do you show it honor? I didn't want it to be viewed as a money grab. And then it kind of just all fizzled."

Later that month, Roth chimed in with his two cents in a statement, referencing the pop star P!nk and the pandemic. The singer wrote, "IN MY MIND 'VAN HALEN 4K,' IN THE AGE OF COVID IS GOING TO REQUIRE TWO OF US FOR EVERY POSITION. SATRIANI AND LUKATHER, ANTHONY AND NEWSTED, AL OR TOMMY LEE. PROBABLY THE ONLY ONE WHO COULD DO MY JOB TODAY WOULD BE PINK."

At the same time, Satriani confirmed Newsted's story of the tribute band on the podcast Rock of Nations With Dave Kinchen.

"I've been talking with Alex and Dave for about a year about doing something – a tour, something like that – that was gonna be a true tribute to Eddie and the Van Halen legacy," Satriani said. (via Guitar World)

The guitarist continued, “For me, it was a terrifying prospect of doing something like that, but I realized that it was something that would be a real labor of love for me. I was just so honored to take on the challenge. … And all I can really say about it is that if it does happen, I know we'll make it the greatest thing ever for the fans and we'll all celebrate together not only the great Eddie Van Halen but the legacy that that band created, the amazing amount of music and the goodwill and good vibes they created as a band."

Not mentioned was Wolfgang Van Halen, Eddie's son. After replacing bassist Michael Anthony in 2006, he played in Van Halen until Eddie's death in 2020. Wolf emerged with his own band, Mammoth WVH, the following year.

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smolbeandrabbles · 4 years

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Houston, We Got A Problem - Modern!Payne x Reader (Slow West)

@mandy23b @wltz-bby @happyskywhale #MendoTagSquad

Author’s Note: Right. Basically. I was inspired to do this due to pic I saw. And then I had to find a song and a plot that could make this modern and it all kinda worked out-! About 3 or so months after I originally went “this thing will get written-!” (And then I started in in April and didn’t finish it until August!)

Anyway - I think if I have a checklist of things I can weave in here I got nearly all of them..! 😉😉😉

Disclaimer: AU, obviously / I think he’s as close to in-character as I could have got him but also understand he’s a little OOC (but had to for the context, I guess!) / Slow West & all associated characters not mine / my usual disclaimers-!

Premise: Offered a once in a lifetime opportunity in Houston, Texas - Payne is torn up about leaving you in Colorado. You know it’s a dream he’s been chasing, but you aren’t about to let him leave without reminding him what he has to return to...

Words: 4722

Warnings: AU / Swearing / Drinking / Sexual Connotations / Slight OOC-ness, maybe? He’s a little softer I think than he aught to be but I’ll let you all decide this for yourself-!

________

This is my kinda town, this is my kinda place I wouldn't mind hangin' 'round For more than just a couple days I got a twelfth floor room with a killer view of the empty Astrodome A tab at the bar downstairs, but all I can think about is home

You should've seen 19th Street, you should've seen the midnight rodeo The way them saloon doors swing, when they line dance to "Copperhead Road" Something ‘bout the air down here, that'll make you feel the way all them cowboys do I wish I was an outlaw, But all I can think about is you I got new boots covered in red dirt A "Don't Mess With Texas" T-shirt And a Lonestar postcard postmarked with missin' you It's got the biggest sky you've ever seen, the coldest beer you'd ever drink But I still feel like I landed on the moon 'Cause it ain't got you Houston, we got a problem

---

Undisclosed Location, Colorado

You could see the truck before you could hear it; stirring up clouds of dust from the dirt roads leading down to the ranch. You were standing out on the front porch, not eager to get caught up in the hot mid-afternoon Colorado sunshine. You were watching Payne, Silas and Marimacho down in the corral with the horses; but that dust made your eyes raise to the horizon. You weren’t due any visitors, and everyone meant to be working here was already in situ. You knew that ad hoc visits sometimes happened; but usually they would call ahead. Cell reception wasn’t great out here, but the landlines worked just fine.

For now the guys were taking a well-earned cigarette break, keeping their sharp eyes on the horse they were training. When the truck was more visible; sun glancing off the paintwork and the hum of the engine filled the quiet air, Payne hopped up to straddle the fence for a closer look. There were no logos to indicate what it might be for, and he was sure that you would have told him if anyone was expected, or had called. He took a drag of his cigarette and squinted at it suspiciously as it continued to wind its way towards the house - you were already outside and could deal with it for now, but he had to admit he was curious. Silas and María joined him on the fencing; equally suspicious. “What’s up there?” Payne raised an eyebrow “Hope it’s good whatever it is...” He watched you point him out. “Guess they’re looking for you, Payne.” “Ah shit, well, I’ll report back..! You two got this one, right?” Maria scoffed “Course we do-!” “If we don’t you’re not doing your job well.” Payne shoved Silas at that, who laughed, and jumpped down, putting out his cigarette he wandered over to you.

You stepped out to the front of the porch to greet them. Both men whose clothes and build said they were probably also in this profession. So they weren’t lost. Trainers or buyers? That was the question. “Good afternoon, m’am-!” They both sidled up to the porch, tipping their hats - ah-! The old-fashioned kind. “Afternoon gentleman. What can we help you with?” “We’re looking for a man by the name of Payne? Heard he’s the best in the business and that this is his ranch.” That irked you just a little, this was your ranch and your parents before you. And it had collectively become “yours” over time. True he had the reputation, and he’d built it into what it was... but it was not Payne’s. He used to work for your father; Payne had a gift for breaking and training horses, and had put this place on the map beyond your father’s wildest dreams. You weren’t about to argue that point now, instead you gave a small smile and pointed back to where they’d just driven from. “The man you’re looking for is out there working, gentleman...” Although he was watching you, the other two now at his side, and as soon as you indicated to him, Payne cleared the fence and began wandering over. “Oh-! Thank you m’am!” They both turned, not giving you the opportunity to ask what this was about. But you knew Payne; he wouldn’t have them speak without you in the know.

By the time he reached the truck, the men had already started towards him; “Gentlemen-!” “Ah! You must be Payne!” “Correct,” He nodded to you, “I see you’ve already met my partner in crime, Ms.Y/N.” You mouthed him a ‘thank you’ - at least he always made sure you were recognised. Payne gave you a wink, before turning back to them; “What can we help you with?” “We hear you are the man to come to - for Horse Whispering, or for breaking horses.” Payne folded him arms across his chest and tipped his head, “That’s kind of you to say, suppose the proof can only be in the success - you need horses breaking, or otherwise?” “Yes. We have the horses, but we wanted someone with your expertise for this particular job.” Payne nodded; “Whereabouts are you from?” “Houston, Texas.” Both of you suddenly froze in place. That was Midnight Rodeo territory. There was a lot that could be done in Texas to do with horses. Payne wasn’t beyond being a full-on cowboy at times, if the need called for it. He swallowed hard, “Well, then maybe we should take this inside... that’s... quite a way to come for just me.” They looked to each other, then back to him with massive grins, “Well, Payne, you ain’t just anyone - you’re the best of the best. And hopefully we can have a good discussion. We haven’t looked at anyone else; you’re the man we wanna hire.” Your eyebrows shot up at that - this wasn’t an opportunity your man would want to miss, you knew that. Payne turned back to his friends to whistle that he’d be a while, and then ushered the men inside - this was likely to be a long discussion; but an exciting prospect at that.

***

By the time they left the sun was low in the sky, and Silas and Marimacho had already packed up ready for the morning – leaving the horses out to graze. You were both sitting on the front porch watching them and discussing the offer, his head in your lap. “It’s a good job, it’s a big job. But you’re gonna be here alone.” You smiled, he was right – it would be unprecedented for Payne to get something good going on in Texas, especially with such draws at the Midnight Rodeo, and to bolster his reputation and his name; yes, you’ve heard of him – now here’s the proof that what they say is true. You certainly weren’t about to let him pass that up, even if it would mean being here alone for a few weeks. You knew he wouldn’t want to go alone; he’d need the whole team – after all Payne always said it was a team effort. You ran your hand through his tangle of curls; “Baby, don’t worry about me, you should do this thing. It’s gonna be real good for you.” He sighed, folding his arms; “I dunno, Y/N… I just…” “You can leave me alone, I’ll be fine.” His eyes met yours and doubt was written all over his face. Payne had a point it wasn’t usual for you to be apart, and you’d suggest going with him but you’d be needed to hold the fort here – and he’d only trust you to do that. “Well, yeah, I’ll miss you. Of course I will, but…” You bent your body over his, “you need this, and you want it. And I won’t let you say no because of me.” and kissed him gently. “But there’s so many other factors-!” Payne looked back to the horses again – “I mean, you by yourself out here? What if you need help-!? I mean, do I leave someone with you here or-!?” “Shhhh…” You rubbed his shoulder affectionately, “Stop thinking so much and make a gut decision.” He scoffed, “If I even knew what that was.” You shook your head and kissed his cheek gently, shifting him off your lap; “Well – maybe it’d be better for you to have an inner dialogue…” He sat back on his hands as you stood, brushing yourself down, “I’m gonna make dinner-!” Payne replaced his hat and raised an eyebrow, reaching out to take your hand “What would you do, if they wanted you?” “I mean I doubt they ever would, I’m hardly the same calibre,” His fingertips danced over your skin, causing you to smile more, “but I would go. If it’s what I wanted.” “And you wouldn’t feel guilty?” You sighed, “I hope you don’t think I would guilt you about it anyway.” You bent to kiss him again, “No. I wouldn’t.” You swept back to the front door, “And don’t you dare try to guilt trip yourself out of it!” He laughed, “I still gotta decide if I wanna go-!” But you knew, deep down, his decision was already made. Dinner was eaten in relative silence, mostly because you felt every time you opened your mouth he might think a little too much on staying for you – you hated to think that a man who wasn’t really one to be tied to any one place, would skip out on Texas for you. Payne had never been homebody and he’d left you here before – you supposed it was the longevity of it. And perhaps how far away he would be. He helped you clear the table before leaving you with a kiss on the cheek and heading outside again. You sighed gently, watching him go. You were worried; how could you not be? But his fretting over this was for nothing; after all it wouldn’t be forever, Payne would still return to you. And if he needed you to make that decision for him, then you certainly would. You gave him another hour or so alone whilst you set out everything that needed to be done the following day, and chalked up everyone’s schedule. After which you got the house in order for the evening, and, thinking that he’d now had enough time to think, joined Payne back on the porch. You couldn’t help but roll your eyes; he was lying back again, one arm behind his head, smoking a cigar. The glass and bottle next to him filled with a suspicious looking green liquid that you knew he shouldn’t be trusted with. ‘If it’s bad enough for Absinthe, I guess it really IS bad.’ You strolled over, shaking your head slowly; “Boy. Don’t make me decide for you!” He was silent for a moment, blowing smoke into the late evening air; “Wish you could.” You leant against the porch frame, one hand on your hip; “I’ll help you get ready…” Your eyes flicked to him; “I’ve been alone before. I mean I love ya, but I think I can survive.” He shot you a look, “I just don’t think sitting out here with absinthe is really gonna help you think with any clarity!” You grinned, “I have a solution, though.” He sat up again, taking another drag, “Oh yeah?” You gave him a smirk, “Yeah… But you’re gonna have to promise me you’re going to go.” “I could just as easily go back on it.” His head tipped, daring you to do something about that proposal. “Well,” You sauntered around him, dragging your fingertips across his shoulders, “if you don’t want me…” He let out a soft groan, “You know I’ll do it.” “You shouldn’t do it because I think you should either…” You paused, picking up the glass and finishing it for him. Regretting it about 5 seconds later and shuddering; you’d nearly always hated the taste – especially neat. “You should do it because it’s all you’ve ever talked about. Because you dream about it. All I’m trying to encourage you to do is chase your dreams.” Payne tipped his head back, blue eyes searching yours; “You’re still gonna be here right?” “You think I’d leave you? I think you’re much more likely to find someone new in Texas.” He growled, “Are you fucking kidding me-!?” “Just checking!” Though the grin on your face was teasing. He stubbed out the cigar and rolled over onto his front, eyes narrowed; “Is that what you think of me?” You took a step back, with a smirk; “Why don’t you prove to me you won’t?” Payne jumped to his feet and pretty soon had you backed against the front door, hands in your hair and lips on yours; “How dare you suggest such a thing-!?” You simply smiled; “I just wanted to check there was someone to wait for, and tell me all about what happened when he lived his dream…” He shook his head, bringing your lips to his again, before moving his hands to the hem of your shirt; “Well – Let me just prove to you, that there’s something worth waiting for.” ***

Houston, Texas

Payne hated to admit how much this was hurting him. He was living it here in Houston, this was the ‘I made it!’ dream.

He’d been here almost a month now, and the entire crew has flown down with him. He was supposed to be having the time of his life, and he was having the time of his life. These were some of the most gorgeous horses he’d ever been given the opportunity to work with and break. And watching them go from fairly wild to seeing them get calmer, and some of them eventually in the rodeos themselves or out working, was breath-taking, and everyone was impressed. Especially the gentlemen who had hired him. He was getting a lot of exposure; his whole crew were. This felt a lot more like play than work, and Payne didn’t think he’d ever seen them all so happy.

But all he could think about was home; all he could think about was you. Even when he was run off his feet, you were still in the back of his head. He called you every day, and if you didn’t pick up then he’d leave a message - but no matter if he got through to you or not, Payne always ended with “I miss you.” Because he did - and he and you had travelled before, it wasn’t like you weren’t used to this but it felt bigger, it felt longer... it was longer. And there wasn’t a real end in sight. But Payne knew he wanted to go home; even realising his dream wouldn’t stop that feeling - he was a Colorado boy, and the ranch and you would always be home.

Payne knew what was coming, from the way everyone was so delighted at his team’s progress, he knew that they would offer him a job. It was always in the air but never said; it was going to be asked as soon as he was on the brink of leaving, Payne knew. It would be him, and he would say no ‘not without the crew’ then it would be all of them asked, and he would still say ‘no, not without her’, and then they would say it would be fine to move everyone’s families too. But you’d refuse; it was a ranch handed down through generations - back to when the West was first being settled. When outlaws and bounty hunters ruled the land. You weren’t leaving - you’d probably rather leave him than you would that house. And Payne had spent way too long crushing on you, then wooing you, and now being with you to let that happen.

This might be his dream but he was comfortable with you. And all Payne had ever wanted was to be comfortable.

Tonight was another night at the midnight rodeo, but for the first time since he’d arrived here Payne was skipping out. His phone had vibrated a couple of times when he knew it was due to start but they’d left him alone since then. Instead he was sitting at the desk in his hotel room, looking out over the city. There was a glass of whiskey sitting next to him (absinthe wouldn’t have tasted the same away from home either and it wasn’t exactly a wide spread sold alcohol), yet Payne was a little too absorbed in what he was doing to pay real attention to that either. Calling you was all well and good, but Payne didn’t have a fantastically verbal love language. He didn’t think of things to say in the moment that could express his feelings to you adequately; but he could write it. He could ponder what words sounded right, he could change them all around and make sure that it all flowed. Everything that he somehow couldn’t say out loud, Payne was at least glad that you could read it. It might only have been a postcard, not a real love letter, but it would have to do for now. He could still say everything that he wanted to; and Payne would still end those letters in the same way as he did his calls:

‘I miss you.’

You knew what it was as soon as you opened the mailbox, and dropped everything else inside before sitting up on the paddock fence, yours and his horse grazing in the field behind you, you sat and read. You inhaled - knowing that he would have sprayed it with his cologne, in the same way when on occasion you wrote to him you would cover your notes in perfume - and for a second it felt like he was here, with his arms around you.

At first you were smiling; he was such a sweetheart in the way that he wrote. You knew Payne wasn’t good with words, romantic words, but this was always where he told you he loved you. Letters happened even when he was home, you’d find them all over the house and they would always make you beam; you kept them in a little box and sometimes you’d sit and read them back. It always amazed you how what he wrote may have been different the longer you were together but, what he said stayed the same. He still loved you the same, and you loved him just as much. So soon enough, as you continued to read his postcard, you weren’t just smiling, your heart began to ache and tears threatened to spill. You sniffed and rubbed your eyes, not allowing any to fall, as you did so his horse nudged against your arm and you patted his muzzle with a half-laugh-half-upset exhale; “I know... I know... I miss him too.”

Payne knew the question was coming. You were going to ask it eventually. You knew he had to work but sometimes too long was too long. And you knew what this meant to him, and that you’d persuaded him to chase it across the country, but you missed him. There was no end date: it wasn’t like he’d be back at the end of the month; the truth was he didn’t know when it would be over. “When are you coming home?” He didn’t want to tell you he didn’t know, but he didn’t. Payne could hear it in your voice though, that you couldn’t take much more uncertainty. And neither could he; it wasn’t about wanting to go home anymore, but needing to. “Baby, I... you know what they’re going to say, they’re gonna wanna keep me on.” “Well they can’t have you.” Your answer was curt. He chuckled “Feisty. I wasn’t gonna leave, I know where my place is.” Your voice was amused though, “Damn right-!” “As you know good work is never done when horses go in and out all the time. I guess the specific group I’ve been working with are nearly fully trained. So, I’ll be home soon. I promise you that, I’m comin’ home-!” “Don’t make me hold you to that-!” He grinned “Ha-! Oh, I won’t-!”

It was a harder conversation than he’d expected. But Payne wasn’t one for giving up, nor negotiating when he wanted something. He very much had a ‘my way or the highway’ attitude, and he wasn’t about to be forced into staying when his work was over. The money he was offered was good – brilliant even – he couldn’t deny that. Yet, Payne knew where home was, and it wasn’t here – even with how much he was loving his time here. He kept firm, and made sure they knew he wasn’t about to be pushed around. The one thing Payne worried about was his reputation; after all he didn’t want this relationship to turn sour. Once he’d left they could use anything to turn the rumour mill: ‘aw, the boy couldn’t hack it.’ That just wasn’t true. But Payne didn’t really trust anyone outside his friends and you; and was always that little bit suspicious. You’d always called it out as an odd trait; especially as he seemed pretty open and friendly towards most people. ‘How else am I supposed to get business and get paid, Y/N!?’ ‘AHHH! So it is for your own ends!?’ Yeah, you probably had it right, but he wasn’t admitting that. Though there was always a reason he kept a decent revolver around. What he did promise was that he could come back periodically for a few days, maybe a few weeks, and continue to work for them. But Payne wouldn’t be contracted here, and he explained as such – he’d built up his, and the ranches, name in Colorado and there he would stay. He had a lot waiting back home – and this would never be home. Even if he could miraculously get you to agree to move. Not that he gave them much of a choice, but they saw the logic in his decision and accepted his offer. He’d really have to talk it out with you first; but Payne was sure you’d not mind too much. Weren’t you always calling him a drifter anyway? The ranch was just a home base. That suggestive way you’d look at him, voice sultry to match your blink and say; “If the sex wasn’t so good you probably wouldn’t even stay, huh, babe?” Payne shook away that thought with a deep exhale, you weren’t the only thing he was missing right now. By the time he got back to his crew from the final meeting and tidy up, they were all already packed away. Everyone had the same notion, they were ready to go, ready to get back to families of their own. Still, Payne knew how much they had loved it here; and far be it from him to hold any of them back. “Before we do all get on a flight tomorrow morning back home, I do wanna say to you how proud I am of how hard you’ve worked. We’ve always been like a little gang of outlaws, and hell if we haven’t shown these Texas rangers a thing or two!” There were plenty of laughs and cheers at that, and Payne grinned, “But, I’m going to give you the choice, and no hard feelings. You can stay if you wanna stay, if you think this is better for you…” He turned to take in his surroundings, “I’m not gonna stop ya.” There was silence amongst them for a minute, and as Payne’s eyes settled back on them he had a horrible feeling they were all about to walk away. Skelly was the first one to scoff; “Payne, ya gotta be kiddin’ man! We ain’t leavin’!” Silas joined in immediately; “Hell yeah, you’re a good man and a good boss and we’re sticking with you the whole way! Fuck these guys, it’s all or nothing with us-! Hell, you’re the one that damn near had us make a pact.” Payne chuckled at that; “Yeah, we were kids back then Silas.” “Well, it still means a lot to us!” Marimacho folded her arms with a smile; “You stick by us and our families. If we ever need anything you and Y/N are there, and if there’s ever something troubling us you’re lenient and understanding. Side note too, but your gal is awesome… We’d miss her too much! No-one gets left behind Payne, you’ve always been about that.” “Here, here!” Kid and Gull followed suit on the other three. He blinked a couple of times, humbled – glad that they wouldn’t turn their backs on something good. Still, he smirked, Payne could count on their loyalty – they were a motley crew for sure, but all great friends. He was glad they’d still take some stupid lines said as teenagers so seriously. He nodded, looking at each of them in turn; “You’re right. No-one gets left behind.” His smirk turned back to a small smile; “So, lets get back to the ones who are waiting for us.” *** He had called you the evening before to say he was leaving. You thought it seemed very sudden, but you supposed Payne would rather make sure, and head home than promise you something and find out he couldn’t keep it. He’d also let you know they were getting on the plane, and now you knew he was on his way back you couldn’t have been more excited. So, as soon as you heard his truck, you couldn’t help grinning. It was an all too familiar sound; and not just to you. Seemingly every horse in the stables knew too; his and yours racing to the top end of the paddock, and the dogs were also in chorus. You chuckled to yourself; “Daddy’s home.” Washing and wiping your hands quickly on a towel from where you’d been working, you ran to the door as you heard his truck pull up. By the time you’d opened it and run onto the porch, he’d already leapt from the vehicle and was walking over. Payne stood at the bottom step, presenting himself, grinning at he looked up at you; “Honey, I’m home!” You shook your head at him but, too overcome with joy to care about him being cheesy, you leapt off the porch and into his arms. “God, I missed you so much… I missed you so, so much!!” You cried blissfully as he held you tight to his chest. Payne understood that notion all too well; he’d spend the entire flight thinking about how he couldn’t wait to hold and kiss you again. And now here he was, and you were in his embrace; “I know…” He kissed your hair, before you shifted to capture his lips, arms tangling around his neck. It was a hard kiss, and long, very nearly taking both your breaths away. You smiled, stealing another, “You’ll have to tell me everything.” “Didn’t I already?” He smirked, not letting you leave his lips – oh, you knew exactly how the rest of this day was gonna go. “Uhm, I think I said when you came back, you had to tell me all about how you lived your dreams!” “Ahhh… You won’t even give me 2 seconds to say hello to my lady?” “I think you made your intentions for your lady perfectly clear…” You grazed your lips to his once again, “I may say she has done the same.” You tipped your head, with a raised eyebrow, “Mayhaps she has, but who are you gonna listen to first – the kids are whining.” You didn’t need to point that out, he could already hear that the animals were glad he was back. He pulled you in closer, voice lowering, “The kids can hush, mom and dad are talking…” smirking whilst kissing you again, “How well can they have been looked after, if they’re cryin’ for me?” “Of excitement, actually. They just missed you as much me!” “Uh huh, how about my coat, you look after that?” You laughed, “No-one is wearing a coat like that in this weather.” He made a face, “Okay, ‘cept you. Crazy man.” “Ha!” This time it was Payne laughing hard, and his hands ran down your body. You smirked running your hands from behind his neck across his broad shoulders to study his shirt, before chuckling. Emblazoned on the front were six photographs of form fitting jeans, with the caption ‘A Cowboys Best Assets’. The shirt itself hugged close to his chest and left your partner easy on the eye; not that he wasn’t already, of course. “Well, damn. That shirt’s not wrong… I like it.” Besides he was wearing a pair of those jeans himself right now. “Oh really? Thought you might.” “Mhm…” You tangled your fingers in it, and pulled him into yet another kiss. “But I’d like it and your best assets on the floor of our bedroom right now.” You removed his hat from his head and placed it on your own, with a wink. He didn’t need telling twice, hoisting you from the floor as you wound your legs around his waist; “Oh, yes m’am.” Payne took the porch steps quickly, and didn’t stop until he had you tangled in bedsheets.

---

is this from a Tumblr post? I feel like it is... Might need to find it out there and credit back

Thank you for reading my lovelies! 😘😘😘 You know I love this enough to continue it, right? 😉

#Payne #Payne x Reader #Slow West #Ben Mendelsohn #Modern!AU #Modern!Payne #this is a little cuter than I normally write him #but I still like it #I need to write /him/ more too.#2020 should be the year of the more /neglected/ Mendos #cuz honestly they deserve it as much as the popular bois #Elera #Same relationship different context #I would like to confirm with April 2020 me that 2020 is INDEED the year of neglected less popular Mendos #and sitting here on August 1st I've pretty much written every boi something now! There can't be many now i haven't written a single word for #I sit here on 5th of September and concur with my above written tag. It's STILL Fraser I haven't written for though!#Hell. 1st of August me hadn't even seen Henry yet and he's made it!#173

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swiftgronmasterpost · 4 years

Text

Late Stage Swiftgron Part 1

Update from November 2021 - I really don’t believe much of this is meaningful at all. I don’t think they’re sitting around referencing one another on social media or anything but some of Dianna’s interactions with Karlie are interesting Dianna shows up explicitly in Taylor’s life a couple more times so I’m leaving these sections here.;

From here on out everything but the 2014 AMAs and Dianna’s somewhat shocking appearance at Taylor’s 2019 SNL performance are just odd social media shenanigans (or subtweets) between the two, and Taylor appearing to release at least one more song about Dianna (Babe in 2018) (and let’s be honest you can make a strong argument for The 1 being about Dianna as well other post 1989 songs.)

Some of this might be complete crack or coincidence but as you all know I want this to be the most thorough Swiftgron document possible.

If anything it proves they both certainly still have similar interests and they really do seem to be in touch.

There are some interactions claimed by others to be Swiftgron related that I’m not going to include because they’re just a bit too reachy for me (though I completely support the theorizing!) but in general, if I personally can see the hint of a Swiftgron connection, I’m going to include it here. Draw your own conclusions and take everything, particularly the alleged subtweets/social media shenanigans, with a grain of salt.

And yes there’s tons of Kaylor and other Gaylor/Gaygron content that will be left out of this segment because this masterpost is focused on Swiftgron. Someday it would be cool to make a giant masterpost/timeline that documents all of it, but for now it’s just going to be Swiftgron stuff. August 26, 2014 - Dianna tweets, and then deletes “Withdrawals, clearly…we had fun.”

There’s no screen shot of this tweet but some retweets/responses of it remain:

If Dianna is indeed referencing the song Clean (in which their relationship is compared to an addiction hence, “withdrawals” from it) then Taylor would have had to give her advanced knowledge of the song since 1989 did not come out until October 2014.

Taylor did claim she ran 1989 by the muse that inspired it and they were both in LA in late August 2014. Maybe this is when.

November 1, 2014 - Taylor posts about Clean

November 19, 2014 - The 2014 AMAs Kaylorgron Explosion Extravaganza:

Taylor, Karlie, and Dianna are at the event. Taylor and Karlie are clearly on a date and Dianna is there to present Sam Smith’s performance of I’m not the only one. Dianna seems a bit out of her element/gloomy when interviewed on the red carpet and Taylor flexes Karlie hard, dancing with her throughout the night and even sitting on her lap during an interview.

Click here for photos, video, gifs, and a live L chat reaction to the night.

December 28, 2014 - The writer for the tv show The Originals, Carina Mackenzie, tweeted that 1989 was about Dianna:

It’s of course notable that someone in the industry is “confirming” Swiftgron on main (particularly before gaylor went mainstream with Kaylor being so obvious in 2015/2016) however what’s even more interesting and notable about this tweet is that an actor named Michael Trevino was on the show The Originals and he dated Jenna Ushkowitz from 2011-2014.

Not only that but Michael was at Dianna’s 26th birthday when Taylor was in attendance as well.

It’s possible that Michael witnessed Swiftgron in real life and spilled a bit to the writer of the TV show he was on.

January 5, 2015 - Taylor likes a Swiftgron related post on Tumblr of Dianna saying she’d go on the road with Taylor and carry her bags at the Giffoni Film Festival in 2012:

February 9, 2015 - Style is released as a single

February 13, 2015 - The Kaylor “Best Friends” on a road trip Vogue Spread comes out. You’re probably familiar with it but if you aren’t google it. It’s incredibly romantic and pda filled.

The Style music video is released on this day as well.

We don’t have to go through the whole video but one egg I just have to note is the cave pictured in the MV is in Morocco the same country Dianna seemed to flee to after Swiftgron was outed:

February 14, 2015 - Dianna tweets 143 remember those days (for some reason it has not been deleted) seemingly in response to the Kaylor vogue shoot:

143 is a code that means “I love you” that originated from Mister Rogers. Both Taylor and Dianna have publicly shown that they are fans of his. Taylor has even made certain songs 3 minutes and 41 seconds long seemingly referring to this number and wore a Mister Rogers pin on a jacket for a photoshoot once.

Here’s a bit more in depth analysis on the significance of the 143 post.

This tweet is how we know that it is 100% in Dianna’s character to occasionally subtweet Taylor and why a lot of this social media analysis has been done.

February 16, 2015 - Just two days later Dianna attends a fashion show in which Karlie walks and is noted to “have kept a smirk on her face” during. Dianna doesn’t clap at the end of the show and looks miserable in photos of the event:

February 17, 2015 - Taylor releases Wonderland

I’m going to pause here and discuss the song Wonderland for a brief moment because it is some of the most incredibly airtight evidence for Swiftgron available.

Dianna’s favorite book of all time is Alice in Wonderland. She brought it up in interviews all the time, tweeted about it, auctioned off a signed copy of it for charity, her private Tumblr and instagram account are called whosirmesir which is a reference to it, her private Tumblr is filled with reblogs about Alice, and her public Tumblr was called fell down the rabbit hole.

So the fact that Taylor writes an entire song describing a relationship through the lens of and packing full of references to Alice in Wonderland is incredibly interesting.

Let’s take a look at some of these lyrics:

Flashing lights and we, took a wrong turn and we Fell down the rabbit hole (literally Dianna’s tumblr name and url)

Didn't you flash your green eyes at me (Dianna is famous for her beautiful almost hypnotic green eyes and yes they are green)

Haven't you heard what becomes of curious minds (queer coded)

Too in love to think straight (queer coded)

But there were strangers watching And whispers turned to talking And talking turned to screams (seems to reference when they were outed) You searched the world for something else (Dianna very publicly went travelling around the world right after April 2013 when they seem to break up)

Taylor literally put Dianna’s Tumblr URL in the song. Frankly I’m kind of shocked she released this song at all it is so obviously and clearly about Dianna. Truly a Swiftgron anthem!

Back to the timeline...

March 8, 2015 - Taylor posts Flamingos for her dad’s birthday:

The caption was “Happy Birthday, Dad. Thanks for all the unconditional love, sarcastic comments, and interesting Christmas presents.”

May 1, 2015 - Dianna posts a flamingo for her birthday (post is now deleted):

The caption was “This is 29. Spoiled rotten. Funny enough, at work they were painting the hallways white and the roses (hallway doors) red, then I actually went to Wonderland (@AliceUnderLdn) and came home to a surprise flamingo. Here we go. Another year around the sun…feeling lucky and loved and loved and lucky.”

Taylor also gave Emily, another rumored ex, a flamingo bandana for her birthday. i also think it’s odd that Dianna mentions Wonderland specifically in the post.

January 15, 2016 - Dianna’s engagement to Winston is announced and Kaylors notice Taylor is liking sad posts on Tumblr including several posts related to Clean:

November 7, 2016 - Lorde’s birthday party where Kaylor is together in public for the last time for 20 months.

January 5, 2017 - Claire (who is still very close with Taylor) comments on one of Dianna’s Instagram posts):

March 2, 2017 - Dianna posts her James Dean inStyle UK photo to Instagram:

This is actually the second time she has posted this as a throwback photo. She also posted it on February 4, 2016 with simply the caption “TBT” and did not include the “rebel without a clue” bit which is a reference to James Dean (Rebel Without a Cause). She’s never posted the same TBT photo twice before or after this (as of the writing of this post in October 2020).

It I may be permitted to go real far out on a limb here it’s almost as if she wanted people to connect that photo of her in the UK InStyle magazine to James Dean. James Dean is of course the way Taylor describes her lover in the song Style.

At any rate it’s very odd that it’s the only photo she’s posted twice whether it’s related to Taylor or not.

April 25, 2017 - Fans notice Dianna is having her script tattoo removed:

This is significant because a part of the tattoo was dedicated to Alice in Wonderland - it said “We’re all mad here”

Tattoo removal is a years long process:

So it’s possible she started getting it removed around the time that Wonderland came out.

It’s also possible part of the tattoo was dedicated to Lea (the part that said “here I am”) so this whole removal situation is very interesting.

In 2019 she was still getting it removed and commented this at a Cafe Carlyle session:

"i was like i don't know i wanna explain all my tattoos or the one that i'm getting removed on my side...you know you're like...WHATEVER we're stopping we're moving on"

February 13, 2018 - Dianna attends the Carolina Herrera fashion show, so does Karlie. Dianna is introduced to Karlie by Derek Blasberg and very audibly calls Karlie “gorgeoouusss” as they meet.

Kayda play “Gorgeous” by Taylor Swift.

vimeo

Click here to keep reading!

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sizzlingpatrolfox · 2 years

Note

Hello! I’ve recently discovered your blog and read through a lot of your asks. Your opinions definitely interested me! I wanted to know your opinion on Jikook’s current relationship as I have also seen them arrive back this morning in Korea and get into separate cars in the airport.

Us supporters would never really get a confirmation but it is pretty clear to me and most that Jikook’s relationship is far from platonic. Some even currently believe they are in a committed long term relationship. I certainly question my beliefs though from time to time (which is perfectly normal and healthy since we are all speculating here based on what we see) but currently what do you think their relationship is? Did you see any major shifts in their timeline (and living arrangements) and when did you think they happened?

For the living arrangements, I am leaning towards them not living together anymore but to be perfectly honest it confuses me as I personally could not imagine not living with someone I am in a long term relationship with after living together for so long (in the dorms and IF they indeed tried living together after moving out of the dorms). But of course I know I am not them and respect that they would have their own reasons whether they do live together or not :)

Hiii! Yes, I saw them arriving to Korea too and leaving separately.

It's funny because 2020 and 2021 was probably the time I felt the most 'disconnection' or detachment between them, at least compared to other years, but there were also a few things that make me think 100% that their relationship is not platonic. I don't know tho what name they give it, or how much into the future they're looking at as a couple, but as of right now yes I think their relationship is past friendship.

I saw shifts in their relationship and living arrangements but none seemed to have any effect on the other and didn't even happen at the same time. For their relationship, for me there were shifts in:

- September 2017

- May/June 2018

- October 2018

- March 2019

- November 2019 and this one went all the way until 2021

(I don’t mention years before 2017 even tho I know there were shifts too because I wasn’t actually a fan at the time and I can’t say how things looked from day to day).

As for their living arrangements, there were shifts in:

- October 2018: JK got his first apartment in the same complex as hoseok, and they started sharing a car pretty much all the time when in Korea.

- April 2020: Jimin and JK started sharing a car all the time. Hoseok rode alone.

- March 2021: Jimin and JK stopped sharing a car. Jimin and Namjoon bought an apartment in the same complex, Jimin and Namjoon start sharing a car.

I think there's been a "shift" in their dynamics this year too, more than anything because their personalities keep evolving and settling in, but it's impossible for me to be sure or even say "this is where it happened" or "this is what's different" because there's been no content at aaaaall..... 😭

Last year they both had apartments in the same building but definitely seemed to spend most of the time in one place together. This year apparently Jungkook doesn't live in the same place anymore so he's a few minutes away from Jimin's apartment now. So, no... so far this year they haven't lived together or at least not in the same way they did in 2020.

I'm used to traveling from one city to another a lot of times during the year, and I don't mind not living with or not seeing someone 365 days a year, as long as I know I will have the means and chances to see them whenever I want to (which I think is something both Jimin and Jungkook have) but it's sad when things change, I won't deny that. And it was nice to see them going home together like 95% of the time and now they just leave on their own from the airport.

I think that if they both have different adresses now, it's probably a rule that they should always go with the same member, so their managers will know in which car they are. So their "rule" right now would be that JK has one car to himself since he's going to X address, and Jimin rides with Namjoon since they're going to Y address. I do believe that since March 2021 they have been taking different cars simply because they’re going to their own respective homes.

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jackdawyt · 4 years

Video

youtube

Your bird is back with another Dragon Age 4 News Update! 🐦

For the first time this year, I’m doing a massive monthly news recap of everything we learned about Dragon Age 4 going forward (JUST) in the month of March, because slap my arse and call me Andraste, this month was huge for Dragon Age 4 updates, we’ve got a lot of exciting info to get into!

(Romance Tweets)

Calling all romance fans, you can bank on Dragon Age 4 to fulfil all of your intimate desires, perhaps even more so than the previous games. Jon Renish, Foundation Programming Area Director working on the next Dragon Age had a few things to say whilst watching a romance scene script read through:

“Don't want to alarm anyone, but I'm starting to think 'Dragon Age' games might be a bit randy.” (March 3rd)

‘Randy’, according to the Oxford Dictionary, means ‘sexually arousing’ and ‘exciting.’ So, we can prepare for that, whatever that is! Jon continues his tweet thread with:

“Well now it's all sad and sweet and emotional. I was not prepared for this rollercoaster.”

In true BioWare fashion, we’re going to have a lot of sexy times, however, brought together with moving and character developing moments – y’know, the ups and downs of the romance as the relationship builds and grows throughout the entire game experience.

“Oh, nothing like that. Just watching a script read through.”

Jon confirms that this was indeed a script read through, as we can tell reviewing a potential romance scene. As a romance advocate myself, I am very interested in the direction romances will be going in for Dragon Age 4. That is something that I will especially be keeping my eyes on.

(E3/EA Play 2020 Update)

EA Play and E3 2020 are generally the most expected places to see a new Dragon Age 4 reveal trailer.

E3 2020 has been cancelled due to the current outbreak, however, we’ve yet to be updated on the status of EA Play 2020. Of course, it is most certainly cancelled since the tickets for the show were supposed to drop this March. But, we still don’t know what will replace the show.

The teams behind E3 2020 are supposedly working on a digital showcase to display new announcements that would’ve been revealed on stage. We can only assume that EA will follow suite and do the same for EA Play, making it a digital show, like Nintendo’s Direct conferences.

Regardless, this is something that we’re going to have to wait and see until EA speak out, and when they do, I’ll be sure to cover that in a news update. I feel we could have a Dragon Age 4 reveal, with an expected release of 2022/2023, but with everyone hectic right now, I’m unsure.

(C Virus Update)

Speaking of hectic... with the current outbreak, EA have spoken and shared a statement about health and safety during these times:

(March 13th) “These are challenging times for everyone. We’re working to look after our employees and their families, and make sure we’re doing the right and responsible things to fight this pandemic illness.”

Thankfully, everyone working at BioWare have been asked to work from home. Justin Masse, Experience Designer working on the next Dragon Age tweeted he’s “working from home until April 1st", confirming the length of this situation.

According to Crystal McCord, Associate Producer of Performance Capture and VO, working at home has been very productive for the team at BioWare as they have “exceeded all expectations.”

So, it’s great knowing that despite the crazy situation in the world right now, BioWare developers are staying safe, working from home and progressing hugely on the next Dragon Age title!

(Slack Server)

(March 13th) While Mark Darrah was working from home, he tweeted a picture regarding his tiling progression, as he’s currently redesigning aspects of his home. However, in the very corner of Darrah’s picture lies a laptop screen with a Slack Server revealing many Dragon Age development secrets!

The server shows plenty of channels for the BioWare developers regarding specific work notes on all aspects of progression. A large amount of the channels are abbreviated to “MOR_” - which is most certainly shortened from ‘Morrison’, Dragon Age 4’s current project title as we know.

This list of the channels are endless, and I could spend forever looking into what exactly they all refer to regarding the production of the next Dragon Age game. We have one channel called ‘mor_announcement’ - does this hint at a new trailer to soon be showed off, or is it an old channel since The Dread Wolf Rises teaser? Are they planning an upcoming announcement? Surely, they would be right? Is that anytime soon?

Another channel is called ‘mor_da_week’ which from what I can assume stands for Dragon Age week? We have a Dragon Age Day created by the fans and made offical by BioWare, but a Dragon Age week, that’s something I’ve never heard of...

And there’s just plenty of channels referring to Dragon Age 4’s current development, there’s even a bad design ideas thread, an ask Mark anything chat, approvals on key aspects of the game, marketing assets, and so on!

It’s a gold mine of tidbits, orchestrated by none other than Mark Darrah, the Executive Producer on Dragon Age. He has once more tweeted a cheeky little tease that may appear mundane, passing a blind eye to it, however, when you take some time and actually look at what he’s posted, it reveals a nug-ton of info we can speculate on.

(New Associate Producer / Jobs)

Illustrator and Creative Professional “Mad Bee” has returned to work at BioWare, they previously worked on Anthem as an Art Quality Analyst. However, this time around, they are an Associate Producer, most likely working on Dragon Age 4.

And, following that, BioWare are currently hiring! I’ve seen this news piece get quite the few news articles, but I figured I could break this one down better, rest in peace PC Gamer.

So, indeed BioWare are hiring for many roles at the company, the most prominent role is a ‘Technical Director’ for ‘the next major title in one of BioWare’s most prestigious franchises.’

Considering Mike Gamble, the new project lead for the next Mass Effect game tweeted this hiring out, I’d assume this position is needed for the Mass Effect team who are also in Edmonton, opposite the Dragon Age team.

What’s most concerning about this job listing relating to the future of Mass Effect is that, according to the job requirements, the applicant needs to have experience ‘developing, debugging and optimizing AAA multiplayer games on PC or console.’

To throw away my suspicion that Mass Effect or Dragon Age are going to have a heavy multiplayer experience, I looked at the other job listings located at Edmonton’s studio and I discovered other job listings, like an Engine Programmer which require the same experience of developing and debugging games, however, without the multiplayer element.

So, perhaps BioWare have two teams, one working on the main single player element and the other working on the much smaller multiplayer aspect? I’d be naive to not reiterate the fact that future BioWare games are going to be live service, however, we still don’t know to what extent that will look like.

(Tevinter Nights)

Patrick Weekes teased that Dragon Age 4 is most certainly in Tevinter following there Tevinter Nights Book plug, however, Patrick still calls the next Dragon Age game an unannounced project? Which I don’t understand because The Dread Wolf Rises teaser trailer at The Game Awards 2018 most certainly confirmed that a new Dragon Age game is currently in production and has been announced.

Unless Patrick is calling it ‘still-unannounced' because they’re planning an announcement soon...

I feel like Patrick is just joking at the fact that the next game is most certainly set in Tevinter, considering PC Gamer made an article a while back stating that Dragon Age 4 is set in Tevinter based on the Tevinter Nights book reveal, it made plenty of the BioWare staff and community laugh at their credulous Journalism. So, it could just be that.

Anyhow, March has actually been an amazing month to be a Dragon Age fan! We had the final issue of Blue Wraith and the release of the anthological Tevinter Nights!

Tevinter Nights dropped plenty of story hints for the future of Dragon Age. I was lucky enough to receive an early copy, as of which, I’ve created plenty of content regarding all of the story threads uncovered in the novel that you should check out once you’ve read the book for yourself, I’ve still got more to content to come from Tevinter Nights too!

However, if you have not read it and very much care about the future of Dragon Age, which if you’re watching this video, you most likely do. So, you should go and read this book because we learn A LOT going forward for the future narrative of Dragon Age. The book is a huge spring board for the next game, so go and read it!

(Blue Wraith)

The final issue of Blue Wraith launched and as much as I enjoyed it, the comic ended on a cliff-hanger!

The lead writers Nunzio DeFilippis and Christina Weir are hopeful for another comic to come, stating:

The two also spoke in a comic-centred interview by Deconstructing Comics about the direction of their entire Dragon Age comics. That since Knight Errant, their comics are created to prepare for a hypothetical Dragon Age 4, but not as a prologue or a plot for the next game. Nunzio suggested that fans should instead look at Tevinter Nights.

Nunzio shared on BSN Forums that hopefully the wait for the next comic won’t be as long as last time. Dragon Age: Deception came out through October – December of 2018, whereas Blue Wraith came out through January – March of 2020. So, perhaps the next comic run could come mid-2021.

(Future Books/Comics)

Speaking of future books and comics, just after I finished Blue Wraith and Tevinter Nights, I was asking myself what’s next to look forward to regarding Dragon Age content. However, on March 23rd we got not one, but two book announcements coming later this year.

Dropping on the 13th of October, BioWare are revealing a new development book, charting the legendary game studio's first 25 years in a massive retrospective hardcover book at $39.99. Perhaps we’ll learn more about Dragon Age 4’s previous iteration, project Joplin?

Following that, on October 27th, the five Dragon Age graphic novels are being put into a massive collection for $29.99.

This book collects Dragon Age: The Silent Grove #1-6, Dragon Age: Those Who Speak #1-3, Dragon Age: Until We Sleep #1-3, Dragon Age: Magekiller #1-5, and Dragon Age: Knight Errant #1-5.

But not Deception & Blue Wraith? Potentially they’ve left these two out because Dark Horse wish to progress with these comics, foreshadowing more comics in the future to come?

(Reddit Leak)

Moving on to a slightly weird, and most certainly fake-but-take-it-as-you-will-update... we have a reddit leak showing many upcoming games release dates, with some actually being accurate. Dragon Age 4 is listed here, and according to this leak, it’s releasing the 15th of November, 2020. Again, most certainly fake, but take it as you will.

Speaking of fake leaks, a 2018 leak for Dragon Age 4’s contents has resurfaced, and oh boy is this thing fake. I feel like dissecting this thing as a separate video just for a laugh, but tell me down below if that’s a good idea or not.

With that, that’s all the updates we had in March! We’re three, almost four months into 2020, as crazy as this year has been so far. I’ve already created plenty previous news updates, so if you need to be caught up to date, or you’ve missed an update, or you’re just stuck inside and need something to put your mind at ease - I have a news playlist with every single major update regarding Dragon Age 4’s development, so be sure to check that out.

I hope you all are holding up okay and staying safe, distract yourself by telling me some of your own hopes for the next Dragon Age game, it can be anything you'd like to see! Personally, I'd love to see Vaea make any appearance in DA4!

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96thdayofrage · 3 years

Text

The U.S. Department of Justice on Thursday charged a Pennsylvania police chief for allegedly violating a man’s civil rights. The charges came after the chief threatened to arrest the man for posting “critical” comments against the chief and his department on Facebook. According to court records, the chief has agreed to plead guilty and has also agreed to resign from the force.

According to a criminal information filed in U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania, the chief, Brian Buglio, 45, of Lattimer Mines, Pa., was employed by the West Hazleton Police Department. West Hazelton is about an hour south of Scranton.

The document says a person referred to only by the anonymous moniker Individual #1 “posted social media content on Facebook criticizing [Buglio] and the West Hazleton Police Department.” Here’s how the feds allege the matter unfolded:

On or about March 4, 2020, Individual #1 met with BRIAN BUGLIO at the West Hazleton Police Department, in accordance with BRIAN BUGLIO’s directions. During that meeting, BRIAN BUGLIO, acting under color of law, threatened to pursue felony criminal charges against Individual #1, in retaliation for Individual #1’s social media posts on Facebook and to stifle Individual #1’s exercise of free speech. During the meeting, BRIAN BUGLIO acknowledged that the threatened felony lacked merit.

Individual #1 “agreed to remove” the posts “and to refrain from creating additional social media posts critical” of the chief or the department, the document goes on to say.

The document suggests a regime of prior restraint — a constitutionally troubling accusation.

Prosecutors allege specifically that Buglio violated 18 U.S.C. § 242.

Scranton ABC affiliate WNEP identified Individual #1 as Paul Delorenzo of East Stroudsburg, Pa. He told the TV station he criticized the chief and the department for being “slow to make an arrest” in a case which involved him. The TV station’s report says Delorenzo also “accused the chief of committing a violent crime.”

“He called me, left me a voicemail, and said that he was going to arrest me for a crime that was being investigated for something I’ve never even done or had any part of,” Delorenzo told the TV station.

In the report, Delorenzo then described how the chief allegedly threatened him.

“He goes, ‘Well, you like to post fake things and fake stories about me so, I could make up a fake arrest and put you in jail,'” Delorenzo said.

Delorenzo then said he agreed to take down the post, shook hands with the chief, and later called the FBI.

The charging document contains a similar description of the latter events.

“Individual #1 and BRIAN BUGLIO confirmed that they had a ‘deal’ and shook hands at the conclusion of the meeting,” the information states.

According to other court records, the chief signed a plea agreement related to the case on April 22. A defense attorney signed the document April 28. The timing of the plea agreement is interesting considering the charging document is dated May 27. Prosecutors signed the plea agreement on May 27 as well.

Negotiated pleas are not uncommon, however.

“The defendant agrees to resign the defendant’s position as Chief of the West Hazleton Police Department within 10 days of the entry of the plea pursuant to this Agreement,” the plea deal states, “if the defendant has not already resigned in advance of the entry of the plea.”

West Hazleton officials would not confirm Buglio’s employment status to WNEP. However, they eventually told the Hazleton Standard Speaker that Buglio had, indeed, resigned from the force.

The maximum possible penalty for the offense is one year behind bars, one year of supervised release, and fine of up to $100,000. The DOJ said in a press release that it is unlikely the chief would serve anywhere close to that much time.

“At the time of sentencing, the United States will recommend that the Court impose no greater than the minimum term of imprisonment within the applicable Sentencing Guidelines range,” the plea agreement reads.

Local residents quoted by the TV station offered mixed opinions on the matter. One person who said she went to school with the chief said he had the right to “stick[] up for himself.” Another person said the chief didn’t have the authority to police speech.

Legally speaking, a hypothetically less troublesome course of action for the allegedly maligned chief probably would have been to file a civil defamation lawsuit against Individual #1 to address the allegation that the chief had committed a crime. The chief almost certainly would have been legally required to prove actual malice because he is a public official. Actual malice is a concept in defamation law which tests a defendant speaker’s attitude toward the truth, not whether the defendant speaker disliked the subject of his comments. The standard creates an additional legal hurdle for public officials who believe they have been defamed. Winning is rather difficult but not impossible — as a number of cases filed by police plaintiffs can attest.

Such lawsuits by police plaintiffs are controversial; the actual malice standard is designed to allow citizens broad leeway to criticize government actors under the First Amendment. Anti-SLAPP laws in many states offer additional protection to defendants; however, Pennsylvania’s is narrow and appears not to hypothetically apply here.

It is unclear whether a difficult-to-win defamation case was contemplated in this matter. A search of Pennsylvania civil actions in an online court database reveals no actions under Buglio’s name. It is also unclear exactly what was said on Facebook or whether the comments were factually sufficient to support a defamation claim in the first place.

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dansnaturepictures · 3 years

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My 10 wildlife/photography highlights of 2020 posts: Blog 2-Seeing some of my favourite birds this year-Part 1: A general look

As always in these thread of posts I shall now take a look back over times that stood out when seeing some of my 30 favourite birds this year. This highlights blog comes in two parts this year due to length, with part 1 tonight and part 2 tomorrow. This one a general look and the second part a detailed look into some favourite birds I saw very close to home at Lakeside and around the house whilst working from home in response to the pandemic. The number of favourite birds I have increased from 28 to 30 as I added two species that were previously on my B list of favourite birds the Short-eared Owl and Great White Egret. I saw 24 of the 30 this year which I was really happy with as with the pandemic etc. a lot of them it just didn’t look possible I’d see and for the other six it was either really rare/elusive ones or I just didn’t go anywhere where I could see one. I got off to a great start for favourite birds of mine in 2020 as I mentioned in my highlights blog yesterday over the opening days off I had of the year. Five of the year ticks I got on New Year’s Day were highlighted in red on my spreadsheet for my year list to denote they are favourite birds of mine, Great Crested Grebe a fitting first favourite bird of the year for me and not for the first time over Lakeside on the walk it would perhaps as I mention in tomorrow’s part of this post have the biggest role of all my favourite birds this year at Lakeside. I took the first picture in this photoset of one at Hayling Island in March. I then saw Buzzard and Little Egret on the way to Portland from the car on New Year’s Day on the motorway in Hampshire and as I said yesterday got spectacular Gannet and Short-eared Owl views there. The first three species were actually consecutive year ticks on my chronologically ordered list so this made it look distinctive on the list.

It was nice to tick off a good few more of my favourite birds at home on trips over the rest of those opening days, with the owls the last tick of mine on my highest ever New Year’s Day bird haul Brent Goose was the very next at Farlington Marshes on 2nd January, I also saw my first Shelducks of the year there. 3rd January just like New Year’s Day over Lakeside in 2019 was a woodpecker double as I saw my first Great Spotted Woodpecker of the year at Denny Wood in the New Forest and my first Green Woodpecker of 2020 on a quick sunny second Lakeside walk of the year that afternoon. On the way back from Denny Wood I saw my first this year of my other new favourite bird the Great White Egret in a field from the motorway at Broadlands. This year tick the one directly before Green Woodpecker so another double. Pochard and Jay were year ticks the next day at Blashford Lakes. I enjoyed some great times seeing these birds.

It has been a strong year for me for seeing Great Spotted Woodpeckers, I’ve seen many and its often been the bird to pop up when I’ve seen or photographed something else memorable to make it into a truly special day. Examples of when this has happened have been along the Titchfield Canal path on that classic day seeing Barn Owls, Fox and Roe Deers that I mentioned last night where I saw one fly over and at Blashford Lakes where I first fell for these birds on more than one occasion. I took the second picture in this photoset of one here on 1st March. It’s really reminded me why I adore this species with its striking appearance, sound and colours and the aura around it.

Back to the first days of the year and like last year on the way to Gloucestershire for Slimbridge for my birthday we stopped off at Red Kite stronghold Oxfordshire, having a look at some at Benson and like last year Watlington on the way there and back home. Especially on the way and particularly at Benson we enjoyed phenomenal views of this iconic and precious species. At Benson we saw dozens flying in the air at a time over a lane and some flew over very closely. Even though it was against grey skies it proved a perfect chance to test the flying shot ability I was unsure of on my new camera to begin this trip away. I took pictures I was so proud of including the third of mine in this photoset and most importantly enjoyed an exceptional wildlife experience with one of our greatest birds. It topped the same stop off last year. Red Kites continued to be more and more common at home building on last year where I noted this a lot as I saw some on the way to work from the train and during working days in Winchester quite often which was great, as well as a few at home which I talk about in part 2 of this highlights post tomorrow. I got a great view of a Red Kite flying low over our head at Noar Hill in mid-May which I took the fourth picture in this photoset of. At and on the way on the motorway to Fleet Pond I got great views of Red Kite and Buzzard on 27th September. At Slimbridge I took the fifth of one of the stars of the place a lovely Shelduck.

When back home and back to work in January attention of course turned to another of my favourite birds of prey the Peregrine Falcon, particularly Winnie and Chester the Winchester pair. I picked up where I left off in 2019 really what had been an amazing year for them seeing the adults and chicks so many times and taking so many photos on days I took my spare bridge camera to work with me. I got Peregrine as a year tick on 9th January with a view of one on the north tower at Winchester Cathedral. I then continued to monthly or twice monthly bring my bridge camera to work to try for pictures of these beautiful birds as they continued to fly between the cathedral and St. Thomas Church. In February I photographed both birds at both locations during the course of the month which felt fantastic, I took the sixth picture in this photoset during my February cathedral with-camera-visit. In April this picture and one I took of a hyacinth in the cathedral grounds taken in March both appeared in the Hampshire Chronicle newspaper in the camera club section a proud moment for me and this Peregrine picture appeared with an article they did on the family too. I got so many of my wildlife, landscape and minority subject pictures in the chronicle this year especially local ones whilst working at home which really stood out I loved putting my pictures on Facebook groups this year during lockdown and working from home. My photos of the Peregrines seemed to get better and better if I say so myself and I could just not get enough of seeing these birds. It sort of began to feel normal seeing them up until I had to work from home which brought other benefits a key theme in all of these highlights blogs but as I remarked when watching them at St. Thomas in February it sort of still feels surreal to be seeing this bird fairly close up at times and just so easily see one. I got stunning views of these birds regularly across this year again.

In February also it was ramping up towards their breeding season with the webcam being switched back on with a second camera this year too making their journey so accessible at more than one angle to all and by March eggs were laid. I found myself feeling the same feelings as last year when I first started to observe these birds around that time and I could look on the webcam before I left the office each lunch to see if they were about then go and see them. So it made me feel good in terms of my connections with these birds. When I was working from home due to the Coronavirus in late April I was thrilled to get little glimpses on the webcams on the cathedral website of the very little chicks as the eggs began hatching. Such an amazing moment. I was a lot more on the ball with reading updates this year than last of knowing when the chicks would hatch, hence I enjoyed seeing the eventual five chicks on the webcam in their early stages a lot more with great views of them being fed and things. As all five fledged successfully a big theme for me became watching them and Peregrine families from other local cities’ cathedrals a great thing to do whilst working from home which a lot of people did too in these isolating times. On 10th August I got a precious chance to go and watch the Peregrines again when I had to go into the office for a morning. My Mum dropped me off and picked me up at Winchester and during my lunch break I saw a noisy Peregrine fly over St. Thomas Church where I spoke at a safe social distance to a kind person about them, one flying at the cathedral and one adult on the Winchester Cathedral north ledge which looked fantastic in the sun of a summer’s day during a heatwave. It felt surreal being back seeing and photographing one with my bridge camera here after five months away whilst it was a one-off thing. Seeing them in the flesh and indeed just seeing Peregrines I didn’t see one on walks at any stages of the restrictions in between elsewhere I don’t think felt quite surreal. It did give me a valuable chance to connect with this bird once more, a chance to reminisce on my times with the families in previous years and the successful year for them this year again with the five chicks fledged unusual for the species I learned to fledge that many and it was bringing something I do so much whilst working in the office at lunch breaks at Winchester into what the days in my life were like at that time which was very different. A very warm and satisfying feeling being so in aw of them and watching one I could not take my eyes off it when there. I also got fantastic views of a Peregrine flying at Lymington-Keyhaven nature reserve again the Lymington end towards the start of the year where I had seen one on Christmas Day 2019 and I saw one there in October.

Winchester really confirmed itself as the raptor haven I’ve portrayed it as this year with one of my non-favourites Sparrowhawk a regular sighting for me here but also great Buzzard views often with quite a few in the sky at times. A great chance to enjoy a bird that’s been one of my favourites for a long time as I have at a lot of places this year. I enjoyed Buzzards immediately locally in lockdown a lot as I mention loads in my next highlights post. But on days we did other local walks in lockdown it was nice to appreciate different common members of my list of favourite birds and get excited to see and hear them a lot. Notable instances seeing Little Egrets and Red Kite flying over at the river Itchen, Bishopstoke, many Jays and a Great Spotted Woodpecker heard at Stoke Park Wood and another Jay and a few Buzzards flying over at Magdalen Hill after I’d seen two of the latter at home that morning also. Shelduck alongside favourite birds of mine I’d more regularly seen seeing during lockdown Great Crested Grebe and Little Egret was a delight to see at Lymington on 23rd May when we did our first trip there and to the sea in just over two months as I took pleasure and had a surreal feeling at seeing common species of that habitat which I hadn’t seen for months so this felt great. When at Pennington a couple of weeks later it was lovely to see Shelducks with adorable ducklings among many other baby birds that day as well as many Little Egrets and Great Crested Grebe. When back at Pennington in early September I very much enjoyed seeing older young Shelducks, Little Egrets with a few flying right by us which was nice and it was almost weird seeing Great Crested Grebes on the sea somewhere other than Lakeside with my journey with them there this year detailed in my next highlights post.

On a January day at the Lymington end of the Lymington-Keyhaven nature reserve I marvelled at Kingfishers again with some great views as they were a year tick that day for a third year running here. A memorable time again. I’ve also had such a good year for Brent Geese another speciality bird here with many seen and heard at different locations. One weekend that sticks in the mind is a February one where I saw lots and photographed some at Hayling Island on the Saturday and then I saw many more and photographed one at Pennington on the Sunday the seventh picture in this photoset. When seeing Brent Geese at Farlington Marshes in early October at the point in the reserve I had my first amazing experience as a boy with them when hundreds flew over my head noisily I reflected on why this made me fall in love with them. Farlington Marshes as I’ve said so often is one of if not the best place in the country for Brent Geese there are so many around in the season and it’s so good for them. I read a bit that day about how important the Brent Geese are to the local area as their presence has stopped a lot of development proposals in Portsmouth over the year including Portsmouth Football Club’s desire to leave their Fratton Park home to build a new stadium at a site at Farlington near to the marshes. Which we could have a huge debate about but there is no denying this is helping the environment. So it reminded me something I am passionate about just what a special place this reserve is and what a special bird this really is in Hampshire as a whole. That October afternoon was a special one for favourite birds of mine at Farlington with Shelduck seen well and lots and lots of Little Egrets, Great Crested and four Buzzards one on a light three flying together seen on the M27 on the journey there. It was also a memorable goose day as I enjoyed close views of the odd Barnacle and Snow Goose that goes to Farlington that I had seen before here and at Baffins Pond where they fly between really intimate views that day and I got pictures. On 31st October I enjoyed seeing lots of lovely Brent Geese at Lymington there in numbers by that point as well as Great Crested Grebes out to sea and great Little Egret views I took a photo of one of the latter.

On a daily exercising walk on 2nd May I made it a tenth spring in a row that I’ve heard a Cuckoo in since I saw my first in 2011 when I heard a faint one calling at Bentley Wood which was magical as always. Hearing one of these birds is almost as good as seeing one especially my first in a spring it’s that exciting and amazing it’s the sound of spring for me. I heard Cuckoos really well on a visit to Martin Down in mid-May when restrictions had lifted a little so we could go there it was nice pure belts of it to hear very clearly it does feel me with such joy hearing it. That day I got smashing Buzzard views too of one at the reserve, one flying along the lane as we exited and two closely on posts on the way back. When back in late July I got a brilliant view of a wet Buzzard on a rainy day on a pylon on the way home. The next day after that I got a nice view of a Buzzard flying over at Stockbridge Down. I was so happy to see my first Cuckoo of 2020 and make it my fourth consecutive year seeing them at stronghold for them Fritham in the New Forest where we were very lucky to see two and hear the call again throughout the walk on a nice sunny and hot second May bank holiday Sunday. What a top experience! The next day I heard another Cuckoo at Bentley Wood much more clearly the sound was than the last time here, it’s certainly different hearing them after seeing one there’s no pressure of I’ve heard it now I need to see it but it’s just amazing hearing them on their own as I’ve said before anyway. That day I also saw Jay and Buzzard flying through. I got a brilliant view of Buzzard on another visit here the following Saturday a paler looking one over the path against a blue sky. Cuckoo, Buzzard and Jay were stars of another Martin Down visit to close May, hearing the former and seeing Jay at the beginning of a hot and sunny walk. On that walk we got brilliant close Buzzard views flying against a bright blue sky so nice to feel spoiled by this coming so soon after similar at Lakeside again and again in weeks one particular Lakeside Buzzard moment from the spring I mention in part 2 of this blog tomorrow. On 13th September we got as we often do a nice view of a Buzzard on a telegraph pole on the way home from Martin Down. A place that September day when we walked around the reserve we also got some great moments watching Red Kites watching one mobbed by a Jackdaw a lot not a sight I’ve often seen so that was very intriguing to see on a great afternoon of birds.

On 13th June at Common Marsh I got a brief view and then cracking prolonged binocular views as it moved around the reeds of my first Sedge Warbler of the year. I took the eighth picture in this photoset of this bird. I really did see what a beautiful, well-marked and striking bird it is that day and it reminded me why I love it. A key moment in one of my best general and packed Saturdays this year where at Stockbridge Down where we went first we saw two Buzzards and Red Kite and Little Egret seen at Common Marsh as part of an impressive array of birds by the river. I had a quite honestly rare in years for me now second encounter with a Sedge Warbler on a scorching Saturday 8th August at Farlington Marshes getting a great view of one in and around the reedbeds. It felt amazing. I also saw a Buzzard sat on a post for our whole walk that day as well as Little Egret and Shelducks including young on a generally brilliant day of birdwatching with many other top species seen too. On 18th July whilst dog sitting I took Missy on a walk at Fleming Park in Eastleigh I’d not been for years over the old golf course. I knew from when we used to go there loads that it’s good for Green Woodpeckers and sure enough I got two great views of them on this walk really brilliant to see I enjoyed it on a generally great local Saturday of wildlife and photos for me so much seen and so many taken a very hot and sunny day a true part of summer, it was a brilliant welcome back to the old golf course area of the park for me. On 1st August at Emer Bog and Baddesley Common nature reserve it was great to hear a Buzzard calling closely a lot and see a Jay a memorable afternoon generally for me. I saw another Buzzard really well the next day at Magdalen Hill flying over my head which was fantastic not for the first time at this near to Winchester reserve this year with Kestrels seen well that day also as they often can be there.

‪On 16th August at Hayling Island oysterbeds we were treated to glorious views of two young Buzzards flying around and in trees. They looked so creamy and lovely in plumage. Their wingspans looked massive as they flew over it really was quite a sight to behold and I loved seeming them in the sunshine. Quite a moment. That day I also saw Great Crested Grebes out to sea and a Great Spotted Woodpecker during rain at Earnley Triangle on Hayling Island where we went first.

I had a great August bank holiday Sunday walk at Thursley Common in Surrey seeing a few Dartford Warblers near to the car park in an area here we never had before possibly relocated from the area we see loads behind the lakes on the heath that had been badly burnt by the heath fire in the spring so this was encouraging and great. That day on a day Hobby and Kestrel views starred too I liked seeing a Red Kite an ever present here on our visits and the area generally in a glorious weekend of raptors with five species seen and a woodpecker double with great particularly flying views of Green and Great Spotted making out their lovely markings I heard the or a green nicely too. I saw another Dartford Warbler very well at Ashley Walk in the New Forest on 17th October on a generally brilliant afternoon I wrote more about that in my third of these posts going out next Thursday about my visits to the New Forest this year I saw a Buzzard well that day too.

I wrote about experiences with more of and some I’ve mentioned here and part 2 of this blog already my favourite birds a lot in my fifth of these posts about my week off in June, when I saw my first Dartford Warbler of the year at Arne and another at Thursley Common, my first Guillemot, Razorbill and Fulmar of the year at Durlston and then again at Portland the next I took the ninth picture in this photoset of a Fulmar from the cliff flying that day and my first Osprey of 2020 at Fishlake Meadows. In my seventh of these posts about my autumn some get a mention. In my eighth of these posts about visiting Devon and Cornwall for a weekend in August I wrote about seeing my first Dipper of the year at Fingle Bridge and first Choughs of the year at Cape Cornwall and Botallack, and some favourite birds of mine get a mention in my ninth of these posts about our week in Norfolk too where at the nature reserve Sculthorpe Moor I took the tenth and final picture in this photoset of a Kingfisher. In my bonus eleventh highlights post this year about my November and December I also wrote about favourite birds of mine.

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kevkesblog · 4 years

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Translation: kicker magazine profile about Julian Brandt (July 27, 2020)

By Thomas Hennecke and Matthias Dersch

Had he made this artistic pass during the corona pandemic with empty stands in the stadium, it would have been a pity. A week before Christmas however, there is almost no free space in the Signal Iduna Park left. Everybody is ripped off their seats – except the RB Leipzig fans – the moment Julian Brandt marks the second goal. Brandt digs deep into his toolbox. Receiving the pass by Sancho, processing the ball, shot. Three actions in one fluent move, south American suppleness with ice-cold efficiency, a master class. Goal of the month December.

This cool blonde with the jersey number 19 – he is a man for the special moments. A player who makes a difference. And a gambler. A footballer having fun and who lets the difficult things look easy and made his relaxed demeanor a trademark. You can guess why he named Diego (the Bremer, not Maradona”, like Brandt said in BVB-TV) is his idol. The Brazilian used to have the blessings to do great things on the pitch. Diego also had a dream goal in his repertoire: 62,5 meter distance on April 20, 2007 against Alemannia Aachen. End score: 3:1.

The fact Brandt coolness also comes from a sometimes fatal way of risking things, relativizes his actions. You are torn a bit. People who appreciate show, spontaneity, art and creativity will love him more than people adding statistics and all mistakes and how they translate onto the pitch. The ‘Süddeutsche Zeitung’ looks beyond that and celebrated Brandt as a “Player with the Wow-Effect”. Brandt plays passes, so precise they will find almost every gap. As if they were managed by an electronic brain. He celebrates chop passes which look good and find their goals. But he also screws up counter chances with sloppy passes. He gives goals to his opponents with carless back passes. Or he shoots x-times against the goal, without a slightest danger to the goal keepers.

2019 is the second year with coach Lucien Favre and the so-called “restart”. BVB manager Zorc took a lot of money into his hands, in order to optimize the team. Looking back he wouldn’t be as passionate about some transfers as he was back then – but the 25 million euros for Brandt are still a good and useful investment, Zorc thinks: “Julian is a talented football player and has a lot of potential. He is very active on the pitch, demanding the ball, plays in a self-confidend way and doesn’t hide.”

Then follows the “but”. Zorc follows everything very closely from his box seat on the team bench. He sees mistakes by Brandt, unnecessary mistakes – calles “unforced errors” in tennis. “He still does a lot of them”, Zorc complains. “He has still work to do when it comes to working against the ball, Julian knows that best himself.” Indeed one doesn’t have to look far to find weaknesses. He himself is his biggest critic, the professional once claimed. Yet, he never lets that sort of self-reflection get out of his hands: “I always question myself, whenever I’m not performing well. But I never question the fact that I still can do it.”

It’s easy to spot: this Brandt-guy is not Mr. Perfect nor a football-playing robot. Rather he is an un-adjusted fine spirit on the pitch. Always in a good mood, with a fresh quote on his lips. During the USA-journey to Seattle last year, he was walking interested through the Museum of Pop Culture where Borussia was celebrating its “Black and Yellow night”. He had some small talk with journalists, he seems relaxed, approachable and cool. The opposite of the footballer clicheé of being arrogant. Brandt is “a fantastic guy” says Captian Marco Reus, “he’s a funny and open guy”.

As engaging, positive and uncomplicated his persona comes across: sometimes however Brandt appears to be less serious about stuff. It’s seems as if an extra scoop of ambition is missing, based on his body language. Unlike many other professionals. “I heard from many people before, about me looking like I’m sort of listlessness I embody”, Brandt said during an interview with the former BVB-player Patrick Owomoyela. Yet he assures: “My inner drive is always there.”

Brandt shows both faces during the game against Leipzig. Magical and faulty. He serves Timo Werner the 2:2-goal on a silver platter with his horrible wrong pass. “Perhaps someday there will be the award: wrong pass of the month”, says the 24 year-old. “I’m sure, I’ll get into the top 5.” BVB-boss Hans Joachim Watzke is face-palming on the stands in that moment. With some distance he likes Brandt’s way of playing. The BVB-boss says: “Julian makes extraordinary mistakes, because you can only play extraordinary if you take risky passes or have risky ideas.”

Five months later, both major teams in Germany play against each other on the evening of May 26. Borussia against Bayern; light house 2 against light house 1. Dortmund has to win, otherwise the Bundesliga title will be gone and Dortmund starts in a rush. Erling Haaland gets the ball in the midfield after 17 seconds, by winning a head ball against Joshua Kimmich. From the back Brandt storms in front like a speed train, captures the situation, speeds up the game and passes over to Thorgan Hazard with his left foot. The clock ticks – 19 seconds into the game – Manuel Neuer gets out of his goal and saves the situation for Bayern at the last moment. But he passes the ball into Haalands feet. His shot rushes through Neuers feet until Jerome Boating saves it for Bayern on the goal line. Brandt goal celebration dies on his lips. The blitz goal after just one minute – it would have been his act as well.

Same game, 43rd minute. Mats Hummels defending for Dortmund, the ball moves a few meters to the left. Kimmich gets the ball, looks up, sees Roman Bürki standing a bit too far away from the goal, shoots and scores. The guy standing the closest to Kimmich: Brandt. It would have been unfair to make him responsible for the goal alone, half of the team is responsible as well. Yet some people who’s heart is beating for black and yellow would have preferred Brandt at least trying to hinder Kimmich on making his genius shot. He does: nothing.

He's a day dreamer, Brandt once said. Day dreamers keep strolling through their thoughts. A study found out: day dreamers are capable finding time to dream because their brains have enough space left. In the past day dreaming was understood as a sign of lack of concentration and attention – today people see it as a sign of intelligence and creativity. Like a lost professor: brilliant, sharp mind, yet sunk into his own world.

It is however no explanation for him being passive in front of the goal in May that basically pre-decided the German championship. Brandt made his day dreamer confession in a different context – when asked about a career plan. He doesn’t have one, he said: “Everything that happens in my life, happens spontaneously. I don’t even know what I will be doing in three weeks from now.” Brandt lives his live as free and individual as possible and as disciplined as necessary. He likes to sleep long in the morning and only leave “shortly” in order to just barley making it on time at the training ground. “Every minute is sacred” he says with a wink of an eye. “I don’t know how often I had to pay a penalty for being too late.”

A year Brandt is employed in Dortmund. The statistics are showing respectable numbers. 42 games, seven goals, 13 assists, ten second-pass assists. The season prior in Leverkusen he had seven goals and 15 assists – just in the Bundesliga. He added six scorer points in the DFB Cup then and the Europa League. “I had to find my place during the first months. I played on many positions and didn’t know many of the boys yet. It’s why it was a bit un-harmonic”, says Brandt. “Nevertheless, now I’m “in”. I had a nice year with great moments. I have to say: I’m really satisfied. Everything can get much better. However its was fine for the first year.”

Brandt wanders through the BVB team, gets put into five different roles. The center midfield is the place where he can show his class the best – whenever he has the game in front of him. He can put his instincts and creativity into force and can create chances with his passes. He is basically a lost force when playing way in front. Except against Slavia Prag in the Champions League he confirmed with two assists, Favre decision putting him into the front as a striker. His abilities are also limited once he plays on the wings.

He never has a lack of commitment and engagement. Brandt is running on average 11,85 kilometers in 90 minutes. Nobody of the permanent Dortmund players is running more. He wins 52,4 % of his one-on-ones – more than Sancho (45,6%), Marco Reus (44,6%), Hazard (42,0%) or Haaland (41,4%). His passing with a 84 percent accuracy however still has room for improvement compared to the other specialists like Axel Witsel (94,1%), Dan-Axel Zagadou (91,1%) or Raphael Guerreiro (89,2%).

Brandt is brilliant in games like against Gladbach (DFB Cup, kicker-grade: 1,5), against Fortuna Düsseldorf or Schalke in the Bundesliga (both 1,5). He has personal low points in Freiburg (sub in and out of the same game; grade: 5), in Munich (grade: 6) and against Milan in the Champions League, where he basically loses the ball in almost every scene. Every game becomes a personal balancing act for the highly skilled national player: he dances on a high wire – here and there he loses his grip and crashes down.

His time in Dortmund started with a glitch. He makes a mistake and drives onto the parking lot of the youth time at 7.45am in the morning. A BVB employee has to show him the way. Brandt decided to leave the comfort zone Leverkusen on purpose. “Dortmund” – he says, “Dortmund is much bigger in terms of media interest, the stadium, the number of fans and in terms of pressure. It’s a different game here. It could make a mark on me and will serve me good.” And then there is the wish to win a title which made him to transfer to Dortmund. It’s about a basic attitude in sports, Brandt said a year ago, “everybody should have the drive to win every game.”

Because Dortmund only won 28 of their 46 games this past season (seven draws, eleven defeats) a lively debate about coach Favré heats up as well as a discussion about the mentality of the team. No fans will get together in Dortmund and celebrate the fifth second place finish of the team since 2013. Nobody will fill extra pages in historic club chronicles, some BVB players are now suspecting. “We are not satisfied to finish second”, Brandt confesses. “We aren’t angry, but also not satisfied. We want more.” He then sticks up for his colleagues who get criticized for some bad performances and whenever there are doubts about their mentality and the harsh criticism: “We want to the big price. The team is hungry, they are in for it to win titles. The team is capable of that. You have to always aim high.”

Children who are having their first day of school this year, have lived a life only knowing Bayern Munich as German football champions. In order for them to understand that other teams can be successful as well, Dortmund needs to win the “all-or-nothing”-games, Brandt thinks. The duels with the other Bundesliga havy weights: Bayern Munich, Leipzig, Mönchengladbach, Leverkusen. “You have to win those games, if you want to stay on top”, he says. “Yet you also have to take smaller teams seriously. Something like a 3-3 draw against Paderborn is fatal.”

Borussia Dortmund gave the players four weeks vacation. This Thursday the team will come back together well rested. The months during the corona crisis, the tough hygiene rules of the German Bundesliga, left a mark on Brandt. “It does something to you”, he confesses, “you don’t see many people. You see your family, perhaps a few friends. Otherwise: nobody. You are happy to be able to go out and have some freedoms again.” Now he can go out again – at least a bit.

#julianbrandt #julian brandt #bvb #BVB09 #borussiadortmund #borussia dortmund #Bundesliga #dfb #diemannschaft #German NT

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rosewatering · 4 years

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ACTIVE ART THIEF - Kharma Shade.

so, in a post i made addressing another situation, i had included this image album of confronting her on a two lines closely mirroring my own trp. her art album has updated after our confrontation, and Kharma Shade (Kharma-MoonGuard) is an active art thief who sends my commissions to artists to be redrawn. she even tried to commission me, and has scammed an artist by commissioning them, then not paying for the piece. it should be noted that the artists are also guilty, as they’ve copied another artist’s work.

here is kharma’s imgur album of art, and an archive. here is my imgur album for mystearine.

and here is a commission of my Mystearine, in an outfit designed by the artist for her, emailed to me on 2/13/2019. email picture link

here is a commission that Kharma Shade received from Saylor-boo on deviantArt, published today, 6/17/2020. and the artist confirmed that my commission was sent as the reference. she has since deleted the artwork after having explained why her actions were wrong, but i archived the dA post and tweet for the sake of exposing Kharma’s theft. the artist is fine. tweet screenshot | archived dA

and the next ones...

art by pixiowl of my Mystearine, uploaded on 10/3/2018. deviantArt link | archive

as the artist Aoleev has not posted this image publicly, i have no date confirmation. however, it appeared in Kharma’s imgur link at the same time as the other copied piece. i hope the first piece is proof enough that this is also a redraw. [[EDIT: i messaged Aoleev and got confirmation that my artwork was sent as the reference.]]

and there are likely more on the way, since she reached out to try and commission me.

now, for the other things!

[[EDIT: Kharma explained this situation and it is false-- she is NOT a scammer. i want to leave the original part here for transparency's sake, but in an apology, she has cleared this up. i apologize for not having validated this with her; my mistake.]] Kharma is a scammer! in the reviews on her artistsnclients account (see the archive of the first piece to confirm this is her account), it is said that she did not end up paying for finished artwork. i do not know what piece it is, but, the artist had finished it.

she very likely lied about never seeing me before, since she knew me back when i went by the screenname Martyr, as she tried to commission me. my artistsnclients is Martyr and uses images of Mystearine as the thumbnail. i highly doubt that this is a coincidence. my listing is old and has never been used, as all of my commissions are done via twitter and discord.

it isn’t unfair to assume the plagiarism that started this was, indeed, plagiarism, now that my art has been ripped off too. her rpfind.me account from April 2019 has a description even closer to my description of Mystearine, as well as Raenyste, and these trps have not been active for about a year and a half to two years. mystearine’s and raenyste’s and trps compared to kharma’s rpfind.me | current trp | rpfind archive. in the two copied art pieces, she even changed her eye color to match mine...as if getting redraws of my commissions wasn’t enough.

so basically...

i don’t know if Kharma is having my character art copied to get back at me for confronting her about the aforementioned plagiarism, but this has got to stop. i haven’t felt so violated by anyone on wow for a very, very long time. i feel so viscerally uncomfortable in this situation, as not only am i ripped off, but also the artists who drew my commissions and had them copied.

i had found of all of this as i was attempting to find Kharma’s tumblr to apologize to her about freaking out over two lines, but, her art album popped up on the google search, and i guess my paranoia has been proven valid. this is not just a little snippet of my writing taken and altered, or a similar hairstyle. there is a point where having similar ideas or inspiration is not a passable excuse; especially when it affects more people than just myself.

i know Kharma has her many alts listed in an ooc trp, but, i regrettably did not screenshot that and cannot find it again. if anyone has it, please send it to me to add to this post.

please, do not harass anyone mentioned in this post.

thank you for reading this post, and it would be appreciated if this would be shared!

#Wyrmrest Accord #Moon Guard #World of Warcraft #wra #mg #wow rp #kharma shade #spineofdeathwing #art theft #art thief #;;† 『 — psa. 』#;;† 『 — ooc. 』

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exitrowiron · 4 years

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What gets measured gets managed (unfortunately)

and the more something is measured, the more it is managed

It took me 3 hours to write a cogent explanation of how I feel about the pandemic situation. I feel better having organized my thoughts and hope you find it helpful.

The horror of a pandemic is that there are no good options. There are no easy solutions, just shitty choices and shittier consequences. The way we’re navigating those choices is curiously influenced by our measurements and our instinctual, primitive decision making.

Let’s start with the measurements. I live in Minnesota where the rate of infection and death has been relatively modest. How modest? The Star Tribune reports the statistics each day on the front page in large print: as of April 17, 2020 there were 2,071 confirmed infections and 111 deaths. The national statistics are more sobering: 705,112 confirmed infections and 58,346 deaths. I’m not one who accuses the media of being aligned with the liberal elite or any of that other horseshit, but I do think the media has failed in one critical way - the media has failed to provide CONTEXT when reporting these figures.

Our primitive brains are bad at big numbers. Our brains are evolved for the kind of numbers you see on the savanna; the kind of numbers you would see in your tribe. More than you can count on your fingers, but not much more than that. Numbers bigger than that are alarming; they are inherently difficult for our emotional, fear driven, immediate-danger-avoiding brains to grasp. It’s difficult to make good pandemic response decisions because the numbers are too big for effective gut decisions. The best way to help our under-powered caveman brains is by adding context. Context, context, context.

Here is the context: in 2017 in Minnesota 44,361 people died (121.5 per day). Nationally in 2018, 2,839,205 died (7,778 per day). Think about that for a moment... nearly 8,000 people die every day; can you imagine if the newspaper headlines every day kept a running tally? These are large numbers but they aren’t in the headlines every day because we’ve become accustomed to them. Our brains don’t associate those large numbers with an immediate threat and they’ve become white noise. ��My point is, large numbers are scary. Large numbers without context are even scarier.

Our collective response to the virus is driven by more than just the large numbers however. We’re also disarmed by the novelty of the threat. Ironically, the virus is often referred to in exactly this way; the novel Covid-19 Corona virus. Indeed, our brains react strongly to all novel threats. From an evolutionary perspective it’s very helpful to react strongly to new threats. From a public policy perspective, however, it’s not as productive. In 2018 59,120 people died from influenza or pneumonia. The deaths were concentrated among the elderly (but not exclusively) and yet 54% of the US didn’t get a flu shot in the 2018-19 flu season. You’ll hear a variety of excuses for not getting a flu shot, but with the exception of those who are immune compromised, all the excuses are BS. The real reason is the regular flu is no longer a novel threat. There is a different flavor of flu each year and everyone other than Trump (and perhaps the governor of Georgia) knows it kills a lot of people. But it’s not a new threat and it hasn’t killed us yet (obviously) so most of us (not me) ignore the opportunity to get vaccinated. Again, this is an evolutionary relic, hardwired into the physiology of our brain, influencing our behavior. We are highly attuned to new, acute threats and very good (too good) at ignoring chronic threats. Examples of ignoring chronic threats abound - type II diabetes, climate change, and the runaway concentration of wealth in modern economies are just a few examples. My point is that even when we put the numbers in context, humans always react disproportionately to a novel threat.

This brings us to the issue of measurements. The axiom, “What gets measured gets managed” (wrongly attributed to Peter Drucker) is most definitely true. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is reported with such accuracy, precision and frequency that it is often mistaken as THE measure of the health of the economy (an error which Trump encouraged until very recently). Numbers are influential when reported that way and any number which is widely reported and frequently updated most definitely gets managed. This is true even if managing the number in question has deleterious unintended consequences. Again, this is true of the stock market. The DJIA is NOT an effective comprehensive measurement of the health of the US economy, yet it is widely revered as such and it’s performance is stimulated and protected in ways which are often harmful to actual health of the overall economy. My point is that when it comes to public policy, the numbers we can easily measure and report each day and therefore manage the shit out of are almost always the wrong numbers and trying to optimize these numbers can have very harmful unintended consequences. The important things to measure are always harder to measure; they change slowly over time and are very difficult to influence (again think of your weight, the environment and the distribution of wealth).

We’re also influenced by who we see and hear. Today we hear from health experts (doctors, nurses, Dr. Fauci and the CDC, etc.). These are all people who have dedicated their career to extending the lives of others at any cost. You can’t expect the CDC to balance their recommendations to save as many lives today as possible with the longer term societal consequences. That’s not the team they play for. It would be like asking a tax accountant to consider the benefits of tax simplification. If you really want to have a balanced discussion on this issue you need to have a few historians and economists sharing the microphone with Dr. Fauci and unfortunately no one ever wants to hear from a historian or economist.

This is where we are today. A novel threat has so focused our attention on managing and minimizing the large, frequently reported out of context numbers of illnesses and deaths that we’ve incorrectly assumed that our responses won’t cause an equal or greater amount of longer term misery, illness and death. Our instinctual reaction is reinforced by only asking for the advice of those whose life mission is minimizing short term illness and death. It is naive to think that shutting down the economy for weeks or months won’t have equal or more serious health and morbidity consequences. But it is true that those consequences won’t be measurable, certainly not in daily newspaper headlines.

I’ve seen the memes accusing politicians and the rich of deciding the economy and their fortunes are worth the death of 2-3% of the population. My argument is not about protecting the economy for the sake of the economy or the rich. My argument is that there are no good options and we can’t pretend that lowering the Corona virus deaths at all costs now won’t have worse long term misery, illness and morbidity consequences over the long term. (If you don’t think trashing an economy and creating runaway inflation doesn’t have health and morbidity consequences just spend a few minutes reading about Venezuela.) Our current flatten-the-curve-at-all-costs strategy primarily benefits the old (the most at risk of the virus) while endangering the health and wellness of the young over the long term. I definitely don’t fall in the young camp so I’m not saying this in my own self-interest. I’m not a historian either but I can’t recall a successful society making a similar choice.

I absolutely loathe the idea of being associated with the kind of people who are currently shouting about the cure being worse than illness. But if I really examine what’s driving my emotional response to this situation (which I’ve tried to explain above), I can’t help but agree. (Though you won’t find me blocking the entrance to a hospital like the militia morons on Michigan.) If you’re a politician who is actually trying to lead, you’re really screwed right now, because there are no good options. Either way you will be legitimately criticized for the consequences of your decision and only one of those choices has consequences which can easily be measured in the next election cycle.

What’s going to happen next is what has to happen. Some time soon the Fed is going to run out of bullets. States and municipalities are constitutionally prohibited from running deficits and can’t afford >25% unemployment compensation claims AND falling tax revenues for very long. In a complete vacuum of federal leadership (even within constitutional limits), states will cobble together policies allowing most businesses to reopen and most people will go back to work, albeit with masks and as much social distancing as possible. We will hope that the last few weeks has increased our ICU and ventilator capacity and advanced our treatment protocols enough to avoid a rebound in fatalities. This is the unavoidable reality.

My closing thought is that the process of discovering the unavoidable necessity of reopening the economy is sadly, a bit like finding out that Santa isn’t real. Most kids figure it out on their own and can’t help but feel a bit disappointed that their parents didn’t just sit them down and tell them the truth. I remember feeling embarrassed and naive. I kind of feel like that now. The Trump administration should have done a better job preparing for a pandemic, starting by not firing the team put in place by Obama. But it’s too late for that. Now we’re just left with shitty choices with shittier consequences. Let’s at least have an adult conversation and stop hoping that Santa is going to make it all go away with warm weather, or hydroxychloroquine, the wall, international travel restrictions or whatever other snake oil Trump is selling.

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newstfionline · 4 years

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Headlines

Where reopening is working (NYT) Across much of the United States and Europe, the coronavirus has been spreading less rapidly than many people feared. Over the past six weeks—as communities have started to reopen, Americans have flocked to beaches and lakes and European schools have reopened—but the number of new cases has continued falling in many places. Across the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S., they’re down more than 50 percent, and often much more, since May 1. Nationwide, weekly deaths have fallen for six weeks in a row. And Europe “seems to have turned a corner,” Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins University says. How could this be? Public health experts gave two main answers. One, the virus spreads much less easily outdoors than indoors. “Summer—being outside, warmer weather, humidity—seems to help, and we may have underestimated how much it’s helped,” Ashish Jha, the incoming dean of Brown University School of Public Health, told me. Two, many people are taking more precautions than they were in February and March. They’re wearing masks, remaining six feet apart and being careful about what they touch. The combination appears to have eliminated most “superspreader events,” like parties, concerts and restaurant meals, where multiple people get sick. Such events may account for 80 percent of all transmissions, research suggests.

Beleaguered and besieged, police try to come to grips with a nation’s anger (Washington Post) The crowds have thinned and the smoke has cleared, with more than a week of nationwide protests leaving in their wake a nation increasingly resolved to change a broken law enforcement system. But they also have left police officers badly shaken, and in some cases physically bruised. Nationwide, police leaders say the rank and file are struggling to come to grips with the level of animus they encountered on the streets, as epithets, bricks and bottles all came hurtling their way. Police have been targets of protest many times before, of course. But never quite like this. “I’ve had members say they feel like a Vietnam veteran returning home to a country that hates them,” said Robert Harris, a Los Angeles police officer and director of the force’s police union. “It’s not that our members expect thank-yous. It’s the difficulty in knowing that the protesters want to be treated with equality and fairness and respect, and what they’re protesting for isn’t afforded to the officers themselves.” “The morale is low,” he said. “They’ve taken quite a beating.”

Federal Debt Tops $26 Trillion for First Time; Jumps $2 Trillion in Just 63 Days (CNS News) The debt of the federal government topped $26 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, when it climbed from $25,960,547,920,986.11 to $26,003,751,512,344.91, according to data released today by the Treasury Department. The federal debt had topped $24 trillion for the first time on April 7, 2020.

A Single Session of Exercise Alters 9,815 Molecules in Our Blood (NYT) When we exercise, the levels of thousands of substances in our bloodstream rise and drop, according to an eye-opening new study of the immediate, interior impacts of working out. The study is the most comprehensive cataloging to date of the molecular changes that occur during and after exercise and underscores how consequential activity—and inactivity—may be for our bodies and health. Over all, the researchers were taken aback by the magnitude of the changes in people’s molecular profiles after exercise, according to Dr. Michael Snyder, the chair of the genetics department at Stanford University and senior author of the study. “I had thought, it’s only about nine minutes of exercise, how much is going to change? A lot, as it turns out.”

United will require passengers to complete health assessments before they fly (Washington Post) United Airlines on Wednesday became at least the second U.S. carrier to ask travelers to answer questions about their health status before they fly, part of a strategy to ease the minds of travelers concerned about flying in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. United’s “Ready-to-Fly” checklist will ask travelers to confirm that they have not experienced any coronavirus-related symptoms in the 14 previous days or been in close contact with any individual who has tested positive during the same time period. It also will require passengers to verify that they are aware of the airline’s policy requiring face coverings when aboard an airplane.

Are religious communities reviving the revival? Outdoor worship is a US tradition (Religion News Service) Religious communities have been forced to find alternative ways to worship together during the coronavirus pandemic. For some that has meant going online, but others have turned to a distinctly non-digital practice steeped in this history of the American religious experience: outdoor worship. Prayer sessions in parking lots and services in green spaces formed part of an improvised response to the lockdown by religious leaders and they may now be part of the plan as the United States emerges from the crisis. Indeed, a team of clergy and scientists have issued a new guide suggesting, among other recommendations, that baptisms could take place in “flowing streams, lakes or in beach settings.” So are brick-and-mortar houses of worship essential? It is a question that states and courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, have asked in considering the extent to which states can or should place restrictions on meetings in religious buildings. Religious communities, too, have reflected on whether the term “church” describes a building or a community. While white evangelical Protestants have been some of the more vocal protesters of government restrictions on houses of worship during the pandemic, they actually have a long history of embracing outdoor worship in services and revivals.

Watch kids near water (NYT) This year, with outings to the community pool, day camps and pool parties still on hold, kids cooped up at home will be eager to get in the water as the weather warms. Experts worry that parents are stretched too thin to provide the required supervision, leading to an increase in child drownings this summer. As of mid-May, both Florida and Texas—the top two states for child drownings in pools and spas—are already seeing higher numbers than last year. If you have toddlers and you think you don’t have to worry because you don’t have a real pool—just one of those little plastic or inflatable baby pools—you still have a hazard sitting in your yard. Little kids can drown in less than two inches of water. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, drowning is the leading cause of injury death in children ages 1 to 4, and nearly 70 percent of the time, it happens when children aren’t supposed to be in the pool.

Zoom censors video talks on Hong Kong and Tiananmen, drawing criticism (Washington Post) Several prominent critics of the Chinese government, including protest leaders in Hong Kong and pro-democracy activists in the United States, have accused Zoom of shutting their accounts and severing live events in recent weeks under pressure from Beijing. The three incidents are reviving concerns about the fast-growing Silicon Valley company’s susceptibility to Chinese government influence weeks after the firm began facing scrutiny over security, including its routing of data through China. Coming in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, the episode also highlights the world’s dependency on services such as Zoom and their ability to control speech. Zoom on Thursday acknowledged that “a few recent meetings” related to China have been disrupted. In each instance, event organizers told The Washington Post that they relied on Zoom in lieu of in-person events because of social distancing and travel restrictions. And each of the Zoom accounts and events was created and hosted outside mainland China but appeared to be quashed under Chinese government pressure after publicly advertised.

EU pushes back on Beijing (Foreign Policy) China’s aggressive diplomacy in Europe is now causing serious pushback. The European Union, normally reluctant to speak out against Beijing, has accused the government of running “targeted influence operations and disinformation campaigns in the EU, its neighborhood, and globally,” along with Russia. The move may be a response to earlier criticism that the EU softened a report on the same topic. Meanwhile, Britain’s swerve away from China has been fast, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposing a D-10 alliance of democracies—the existing G-7, plus South Korea, India, and Australia—to build 5G networks free of Chinese influence. The Hong Kong crisis has further soured U.K.-Chinese relations, with Beijing warning that it may pull out a British nuclear power construction deal. Since the original nuclear deal was widely seen as a disaster in the U.K., this doesn’t give Beijing much leverage.

Poland troop plan falters (Foreign Policy) After U.S. President Donald Trump said he would remove 9,500 troops from Germany, plans to relocate troops further east in Poland have fallen into disarray, Reuters reports. A plan announced in June of last year to send 1,000 U.S. troops to Poland permanently has been held up over disputes over how much of the bill Poland would cover, where to station the troops, and whether they would gain legal immunity while stationed there.

Lack of beds slows Delhi’s virus fight (AP) In New Delhi, a sprawling capital region of 46 million and home to some of India’s highest concentration of hospitals, a pregnant woman’s death after a frantic hunt for a sickbed was a worrying sign about the country’s ability to cope with a wave of new coronavirus cases. “She kept begging us to save her life, but we couldn’t do anything,” Shailendra Kumar said, after driving his sister-in-law, Neelam, and her husband for hours, only to be turned away at eight public and private hospitals. Two and a half months of nationwide lockdown kept numbers of infections relatively low in India. But with restrictions easing in recent weeks, cases have shot up, rising by a record of nearly 10,000 on Thursday, raising questions about whether authorities have done enough to avert catastrophe. Half of Delhi’s 8,200 hospital beds dedicated to COVID-19 patients are already full and officials are projecting more than half a million cases in the city alone by July 31.

Chinese recovery (Foreign Policy) Some data indicates that the speed of economic recovery in China may be faster than feared, with oil use already back to 90 percent of pre-coronavirus levels. Domestic demand for consumer goods is strong, but a lack of global demand is hamstringing Chinese manufacturers: Reopened factories are struggling to find customers.

Floyd killing finds echoes of abuse in South Africa, Kenya (AP) Collins Khosa was killed by law enforcement officers in a poor township in Johannesburg over a cup of beer left in his yard. The 40-year-old black man was choked, slammed against a wall, beaten, kicked and hit with the butt of a rifle by the soldiers as police watched, his family says. Two months later, South Africans staged a march against police brutality. But it was mostly about the killing of George Floyd in the United States, with the case of Khosa, who died on April 10, raised only briefly. Despite racial reconciliation that emerged after the end of the apartheid system, poor and black South Africans still fall victim to security forces that now are mostly black. The country is plagued by violent crime, and police often are accused of resorting to heavy-handed tactics. Journalist Daneel Knoetze, who looked into police brutality in South Africa between 2012 and 2019, found that there were more than 42,000 criminal complaints against police, which included more than 2,800 killings—more than one a day. There were more than 27,000 cases of alleged assault by police, many classified as torture, and victims were “overwhelmingly” poor and black, he said. And in Kenya, the police force has for two decades been ranked the country’s most corrupt institution. It’s also Kenya’s most deadly, killing far more people than criminals do, according to human rights groups.

#headlines #news

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nanchalatnoaker · 4 years

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Love in the Time of Corona Virus: Day 3

Friday, March 13, 2020

“There are more than 120,000 confirmed cases and more than 4,300 deaths worldwide from the coronavirus.” - Johns Hopkins University

“Nepal announced on Friday it is shutting down all expeditions on Mount Everest for the rest of this year's climbing season amid the worsening global pandemic.” - CNN Travel

Friday the 13th indeed! The reality of a global pandemic is soaking in, permeating state, county and neighborhood interactions. The stock market, like our emotions, is swinging madly up and down, shoppers are panic buying: water, toilet paper, diapers and flu medicines.

At noon, against my usual policy of shunning TV news during the day, my husband and I tuned in to the president’s unabashedly self-congratulatory press conference. And yet, he still failed to instill any sense of calm. The presentation, laden with private-sector chums was riddled with contradictions and inconsistencies. Perhaps the most blatant was the president’s admonishment to practice social distance while still shaking hands with each speaker -THAT despite that fact that he met with a known carrier of the virus earlier in the week. Only one of the sycophants he had invited mustered the courage to recoil from the president’s outstretched hand, offering elbow bump instead.

Later in the afternoon, cell phone news alerts cascaded from the national to the state level with Utah’s governor dismissing all public schools for two weeks. I couldn’t help imagining the panic that would have caused in our household when my husband and I were both working and our son was in elementary school.

The governor’s decision to declare a state emergency, to dismiss schools and to limit public gatherings to 100 participants sparked another round of alerts on my phone and a flurry of texts from fellow political activists.

Utah Democrats are contemplating alternatives to the scheduled in-person caucuses later this month and the upcoming county conventions in early April.

This is uncharted territory. The status of the state and national conventions is also uncertain and threatens our already wounded democratic process.

I can’t help comparing to the film “Contagion,” which is proving to be more accurate than could have been imagined when it was made a decade ago. It is just one more example of how artists sometimes see our future more clearly than our politicians and scientists do.

The depth and breadth of this global crisis was punctuated with personal ethical dilemmas. A request to babysit, an invitation to a party, meetings, lunch dates - I turned all of them down. Embarrassed to be so fearful, but certain the small number of local cases is about to mushroom. I don’t want to be the giver or the receiver.

So, I will hunker down, bake, knit, read, clean closets - activities I enjoy but prefer to intersperse with more productive endeavors.

Which brings me to the prospect of being quarantined with my husband of 40 years. Most days we operate independently: I work on my art projects/he makes sales calls, I walk/he skis, he does outside chores/I cook dinner. We pretty much stay, (respectfully) out of each other’s way.

But as a sole companion for two-plus weeks? That could be a challenge and I am sure he feels the same way.

I will keep you posted!

News of the day: 2 new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Summit County, Park City and Summit City declare emergencies and curtail public programs, the Snowbird tram closes, Park City ski resorts say they are taking precautions but staying open.

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ponderingsofbck · 4 years

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Pondering the Enigma that is Mental Health

The date was April 14, 2020, and the whole world, but especially the United States, was under a lockdown, due to a global pandemic called Covid-19. Nothing had become more evident at that point, about a month after everything except essential businesses had shut down, than the fact that the lockdown itself could become a risk. Therefore, I thought about how we can handle the mental health of ourselves and those around us, not only for the present, but also for the foreseeable future, as mental illness seems to be on the rise in general.

I then began the task of formulating specific questions to ask in my process of pondering this topic. I asked questions such as how bad is the mental health problem? What are the causes? What are the effects? What can be done to help those suffering with mental health problems and mental illness?

I also thought about why these questions matter to me personally. My answer to that question was that I do not think anyone should have to go through the emotional distress, that can be caused by mental illness, alone. Having struggled in my own life with depression and anxiety in my teen years, I know what it is like, and I would not want that for anyone else. I have also read into the issue a lot to try to better understand it myself. I am an empath by nature, so whenever I read or hear about someone giving up after going through something alone because they felt like they could not talk about it to anyone, I tend to wish that I could have helped in some way. It had only become more personal to me after a woman, and her neighbor in my town, were killed by her estranged husband during the Covid-19 crisis and lockdown. I did not know her or her family personally, but my heart went out to them, and I began wondering how we can all keep our mental resolve from breaking in what can essentially be complete isolation for some.

Next, I considered what I already knew about the subject through my own experience as well as reading about it over the years. I understand personally that it is a complex and sensitive issue that many people simply do not understand, or even care to address properly. At their core though, mental health issues tend to lead to feelings of isolation and the misconception that one is alone in their struggles. I also understand that there have been many so-called solutions given in the past, which we would now deem inhumane and rightly so.

Thus, I had the foundation for how I would approach my research into the topic of mental health, it was not a nebulous, general concept, but rather more of a focused specific goal. It was a concrete reality all around me given the recent events in the world, and the fact that some were starting to break under the pressure of the lockdown.

I had begun my research by thinking about the exact search terms that I would be using for the most effective search as well as which database sites I would be searching. I avoided using google, as I have not had very good luck finding anything excepts ads and products for sale on google recently. I used my school’s online database search resources and went to a few different database sites, beginning a process of elimination for which sites I would use. I had eliminated some of the database sites from my search process due to technical difficulties at the time, and others I had eliminated as it was just entirely too difficult to sift through all the information given, with the time that I had allowed myself, even after narrowing the search by year, subject etc. After searching through the different database sites for a while I decided to use the JSTOR for my sources as it had the least technical difficulties at the time, as well as being a bit easier for me to search and find relevant information.

In the search process I decided to focus more on mental health as a general and global issue, though there are plenty of experiments and studies that focus on one aspect or another of mental health and mental illness. I also had tried to look more into possible solutions, cures, and programs as well as what I could do to help to alleviate the problem. I started out just searching for the term “mental health,” but that gave me to many results with specialized studies and experiments. I then searched for solutions related to mental health and added the specific term “peer support” into my search query. Those terms helped to find more relevant results, and I further narrowed my focus to articles that were current from within the last five years.

I had three articles which I decided to use, two of which were from Scientific American Mind, and the last of which was from Foreign Affairs. All three of the articles mention different aspects of the effects of mental illness and how it is handled in society. They also mention how even in recent decades mental health and illness have been rather enigmatic and were not handled as sensitively as they should have been.

Here is what I found in the articles which I had decided to use. I will start with the one from Foreign Affairs, titled “Darkness Invisible,” directly below the title it says, “The Hidden Global Costs of Mental Illness,” it was written by Thomas R. Insel, Pamela Y. Collins, and Steven E. Hyman. In this article the authors point out that mental illness is actually a serious problem which should garner more attention than it gets, as it is so far reaching that it effects the global economy. It is also asserted by the authors that this will have no small effect on the world’s economy in future decades as the total amount that it had cost the economy at the time of the study was expected to reach $6 trillion by the year 2030. The authors would also point out in this article that people and governments misunderstand how much mental illness effects society and the economy, and that it is not only a first world problem as mental illness can be debilitating regardless of what one’s vocation may be. The article continues with the authors presenting a number of facts and statistics on mental health, and the prognosis at this point does not look very advantageous for the global economy, there is however a glimmer of hope. The authors would offer a number of possible solutions which are being researched and developed. According to the authors some of the remedies being considered and tested include the use of web-based counselling and integrated mental and general healthcare.

Next I will briefly mention my findings from the two Scientific American articles. The first one that I will mention is titled “Patients Helping Patients,” it was written by Karen Weintraub. In this article the author focuses on the struggle and experience of one Pual Bradford, who had suffered perhaps a bit of a mental breakdown in the early 2000s. The author continues recounting that Bradford’s experience with the mental healthcare at that time was actually rather traumatizing, so much so, that Bradford decided that it was his calling to be a part of the solution. The author then explains the concept of peer counselling, which seems noble, as it is former mental health patients offering help and counselling to current patients. The author then explores some of the pros and cons of this concept, one advantage would be that peer counselors would have more empathy, though one con would be that sometimes people only have peer counselling when they need regular counselling as well.

Last there is the article titled “First Aid for Mental Health,” written by Aliyah Baruchin, in which the author elucidates on many of the points made in the previous two articles which I had mentioned above. The author brings out how detrimental mental illness can be when the victims of it break, citing a number of incidents. However, the author seems to focus on something that could vastly improve the situation, even if it has reached a point of major deterioration, a tactic called “Mental Health First Aid.” According to the Author this tactic allows the responder to approach the patient in a non-threatening and objective manner which has proven successful in many cases already, with some police departments and other agencies enrolling in the certification classes for the tactic since.

In conclusion, what I had learned form my research only confirmed my prior knowledge that mental health is indeed a sensitive and complex issue, which needs to be approached with caution and care. I am more aware that there are a growing number of resources to help with averting the crisis of mental illness. The biggest thing that this has reinforced for me though, is the idea that simply talking to people and being there for them when they are going through something could prevent a catastrophe in the future. I do not think that anyone should have to go through anything mentally destressing alone, whether we truly understand it or not. I intend to sign up for the MHFA (Mental Health First Aid) certification at some point in the foreseeable future, as I can see an increasing need for that in the world around me.

Works Cited

Baruchin, Aliyah. “FIRST AID FOR MENTAL HEALTH.” Scientific American Mind, vol. 26, no. 2, 2015, pp. 68–73. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/24946499. Accessed 9 May 2020.

Insel, Thomas R., et al. “Darkness Invisible: The Hidden Global Costs of Mental Illness.” Foreign Affairs, vol. 94, no. 1, 2015, pp. 127–135. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/24483225. Accessed 4 May 2020.

Weintraub, Karen. “PATIENTS HELPING PATIENTS.” Scientific American Mind, vol. 26, no. 3, 2015, pp. 60–63. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/24946458. Accessed 4 May 2020.

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