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tar-oh · 3 years

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Pick-A -Pile: What will the rest of November be like for you?

Howdy there, folks! Sorry it’s been a while. But here I am! I have 3 new decks, so I wanted to use those. I have the Cosmic Tarot deck, which I’m excited to use because it’s from the 90′s. It’s also based somewhat off of old movie stars, too. It’s one of the most interesting decks I’ve seen just because of the interpretation the artist had on some cards, but I find that they’re fun to read intuitively. I also got the Light Seer’s Tarot from my best friend for my birthday. That one is fun because the artwork is beautiful and it’s got a lot of bright colors. The last is a new oracle deck I got called the Seasons of the Witch: Samhain Oracle, which is based around Halloween/Samhain. t’s very much Halloween/witch themed and has beautiful artwork and poetry on it. I also pulled moonology cards for each pile.

The question I asked for each pile was just what the rest of November will be like for you. I think it’s just better sometimes to let what needs to come through come through, and I have to say that there was a lot of healing and change that came through for each pile.

Here’s the piles to pick from:

So:

Pile 1 is the Opalite

Pile 2 is the Rose Quartz

Pile 3 is the Carnelian

I need to say that this is a general reading. It’s for a bunch of different people, so it’s not specific, nor does it mean it will resonate with you. If it doesn’t, I have a few other readings on my blog that aren’t time-specific and may give you insight. Otherwise, I may not be the reader for you. If you would like to reach out for a personal reading, my DM’s are always open and I will try to answer it ASAP. I recently got a cashapp, so if you’d like to tip (it’s not necessary), it’s $sarams.

SO. THAT BEING SAID ONTO THE READINGS:

Pile 1: Opalite

Cards: strength, 6 of pentacles, the moon, 8 of wands, 5 of cups, page of pentacles, 2 of wands, banshee, new moon in sagittarius

There's one word that keeps showing up with these cards for me, and that's CHANGE. The Banshee warns of you blocking change. New Moon in Sag suggests you might change your mind on something. The strength card in this particular deck suggests the transformation of energy. So, the word for your November is Change and I think these cards are saying that there will be change for you, but how it goes, it's up to you. You're asked to get out there. And by that, I don't necessarily mean going out and about (especially for those that COVID is still around, be safe guys!). I mean whatever that means for you. So for some, you want to put something on the internet. For example, if you're thinking of starting a new blog or even a youtube channel, this spread is telling you to do that. There's a lot of pentacles and wands in this spread. That tells me there's a lot of creativity and abundance within this. I don't always mean material wealth, I mean whatever that could mean to you. This could be a passion project, that you work on for fun. Or it could actually be something you plan on trying to make money from. This pile needs to realize their own power. The fact that the lady in the strength card is holding a tapestry with a lion on it furthers this idea for me. Lions in historical terms have always symbolized strength. I'm reading this as if she had the tapestry covering her whole body up, but she appears to be moving it away. I'm also assuming she's naked behind it, too, so it's like, stripping away a mask you might have had on. This idea that you were toning yourself down for everyone else, but now you're letting that fall away. You're being you, and unapologetically so. You have a lot to share and a lot to give, and you're a little hesitant about this. Perhaps, in the past, you had things not go the way you wanted when you put yourself out there. But, this is telling you to forget that. A lot of you are changing or going through changes, whether it be inside or how things external to you. But, you're also denying these changes? Like, okay right now Make Way by the Front Bottoms is playing, and he sings "I make way for the expensive things in my head." You have dreams, but these dreams cannot come into actualization until you make room. The Banshee card can read as a warning, and I'll get to that later. In order for new things to come in, there needs to be room. This Banshee card hints that you're not allowing there to be room.

As I was writing that I started to think about the 4 of pentacles from the Rider-Waite deck. On the card, he guy's hoarding the pentacle and the chest underneath him full of who knows what (knowledge? love? money?) but that card isn't present. But, my eyes were drawn to the 5 of cups where she's looking down into the hole that the cups are spilling into. It almost looks like a bit of her soul is spilling into it too. I read that as someone who poured a lot of effort into those cups, a lot of their soul too. But, in the end, it was all for naught. At least, that's how they see it. So they dump out all those cups and their soul goes with them. But, that's not what I mean by making room. In this card, she's so focused on what's lost, rather than what could come in. Behind her, there's this path and wide-open space, and the stars are out. It's so beautiful but her backs to it. You need to be able to turn around and run into that unknown. The moon definitely supports that idea to me, also this 8 of wands. The moon in this reading, to me, is you embracing the unknown. Like, walking into the future despite it not having certainty yet. As unsure as you are about what tomorrow, next week, or even next year holds, you need to be able to crawl out of that pond like that lobster. He's kind of jumping out of that pond at the moon like "HERE I AM!" I also see him as reaching towards the moon that's made up of two fishes. So, almost like he's grabbing at them like a prize. So, I want to be cheesy and say REACH FOR THE SKY! And, I don't know. Perhaps a bit of corniness is needed in this moment for you? 8 of wands also gave me that feeling too. It's an image of a man jumping through the air with those 8 wands and he looks ABSOLUTELY THRILLED. These cards are telling you to be excited because when you reach out, good things reach for you if that makes sense. Page of Pentacles and 2 of wands show me that there's something you are or will be working on that you want to share. These also tell me it's something that you need to be practical about sharing. Like, the way you go about it. It's a bit like you need to make sure that when you jump through the air with those wands, you're calculating where you land. So, it's telling you to jump, but not to be The Fool about it. Don't jump without looking. But also, not to sit still like that girl in the 2 of wands. She's looking out the window wishing when she could be going. The 6 of pentacles tells me that whatever you share is going to be valuable. Usually, this card is about give and take. Or, about being compassionate and empathetic. Having what you need and sharing it too. It could also mean someone is helping you out. But, today I'm seeing this as you having something that would be valuable to others. So, maybe you want to make a fitness vlog or you have a large knowledge about rocks or something and you want to write blog posts about them. And, this specific version of the 6 of pentacles is that this man is standing under a crescent moon. It looks to me like it was recently a new moon, and I kind of see those pentacles as other phases of the moon. So, to me, it's like you manifesting. The act of placing an intention on what you want to do or achieve between the new and full moons. Like, this man is under this newer moon and he is manifesting what he wants. He's also excited about what's to come despite it being unknown. Those 8 wands are telling you to DO IT. START IT. You got New Moon in Sagittarius, which has the line "Luck is on your side" written on the card. In the moonology deck, I read this as the equivalence of the Wheel of Fortune tarot card. I mean, it even mentions the wheel in the guidebook. This card is telling you to GO! Do it! You've got luck on your side, but to also stay open-minded. I did mention that the Banshee does serve as a warning. The card's keywords are bad omens and wrath. I don't want this to scare you, rather, I want you to take this and hug it. I'm laughing at myself for that last part, but seriously. This card is, to me, just death reversed. When death is in reverse, you're denying a transformation that needs to happen. Even denying the ending of something. This is telling you that things are changing. They will not, cannot stay the same and that this warns you against denying this. Change can be so beautiful. Like, I mean, think about butterflies and the transformation they go through? You could have that! This change could be physical or mental or in your external world. Either way, if you're able to embrace this change with open arms, you'll find that there's a lot of joy that comes with this. I do have to say that there is the risk of you getting a bit of a big head. I want to tell you to stay level-headed about everything that comes your way. I also have to bring that 5 of cups back up along with the banshee. These suggest this idea that you're focused on mourning an ending, but that you should let it go. A part of me doesn't agree with that completely. There is a certain amount of need to allow these things to fall away and not to mourn forever. But also, if you're still grieving it once those changes come in, that's okay. That whole, making way for the expensive things is something that one needs to do, but there's also this thought I have about making space...to just...allow things to be. Sitting with something. The song Unsaid Emily came on from Julie and the Phantoms. The story it tells is heartbreaking, and I found it fitting. The song is about regrets and wishing you could say something you never got to say. There's a part where he sings "If you could only know, I'd never let you go." This ties in because you can still have that past with you. You don't have to let it go completely, but there's also a point where wallowing in it doesn't help. So, it's like, this banshee/5 of cups combo is both a warning and the act of acceptance. Like, this acceptance that this happened. It's over, and we will have these thoughts on it for a while (they'll probably transform through time). But, they're there, and while we're embracing it we're also taking them and moving forward. It's this act of leaving it behind while simultaneously leaving room for it in your suitcase. All seriousness aside now, I think November is going to be good for you. I don't know if it's going to be super major in any way, but I know that it's going to at least be a stepping stone for the rest of your life. Maybe a lot of little things will happen that will only be worked into your memory years later as things that you can attribute to where you are. I just see joy and creativity in these cards and maybe hesitation, but its that hesitation before you jump and I see that when you land (in that calculated spot), you're going to be okay. And, honestly, I think right now, that's all we want to hear. Right? That we'll be okay? Songs:

Make Way - The Front Bottoms Unsaid Emily - Julie and the Phantoms Soundtrack Makeup - Oberhofer

Pile 2: Rose Quartz

Cards: Queen of Swords, Two of Pentacles, Ace of Cups, Temperance, 4 of Wands, King of Wands, Full Moon Eclipse, Wolf One thing that's coming through strongly is that you need to follow your intuition. In the song Wild Roses by Of Monsters and Men, there are the lyrics "I followed a feeling". Even more, in the song Don't Give Up Your Ghost by Movements, they talk about not letting your demons get the best of you. Not letting those dreams you had go. And so, you follow them and chase that feeling, whatever that means to you. The card Wolf's keywords are instinct and freedom. It's the last card of the Seasons of the Witch deck, and with it comes this sense of completion. The Full Moon Eclipse speaks of conclusions being within reach. These conclusions are doors that have closed. But with these cards, while I see contemplation in some (queen of swords, temperance, even King of Wands), I also see movement. In 4 of Wands, they're dancing. In King of Wands, he does look stationary, but he also looks as if he's going to step forward at any moment. In two of pentacles, he's trying to keep his balance, but it looks like he's also trying to move forward too. So, there's a sense of forward movement, but with it comes this act of never looking back. There's a chance you'll face a decision in November. With the Queen of Swords and Temperance, you're asked to stop for a moment and be logical. To balance out the practicalities and the emotions. But, with it comes a beginning, one that can prove to be very fulfilling to you. There's a chance that this leads to a celebration, as well. Either way, you're asked to weigh the options while also keeping in mind that whatever you're leaving behind stays behind you. The last pile was also about moving forward and change. But, it was also a gentle reminder to hold your values and memories close to your heart. Whereas, with this pile, you need to hold those values and memories, but not as closely. At a distance where you can see them to keep perspective, but far enough away that they're not pulling you back to that door. And, by the way, that door will be locked. I don't know what this could be that you can't go back on. I mean, I guess it's like something that you just can't relive. Maybe it's that thing where nothing's ever the same again. Either way, it's like this spread is begging you to move forward. Ah! The song that came on is Kill My Time by 5 seconds of summer. There's a line, "Why don't you just say goodbye now. It's only a matter of time," which goes perfectly with what I just said. It's like, whatever is reaching it's conclusion. It's as if you've ridden that wave and you're at the end of it. You've run out of a wave to ride, so it's time to find another. On the wolf card, it says "Run wildy into the freedom of your knowing", so 1. definitely feeling the moon card here. But also 2. you're released from whatever is concluding. Also, the moon, it's about mysteries and the unknown and in the last pile they got it and it was telling them to jump into the unknown. I see that you guys are asked to jump into the unknown as well. Though something tells me that you guys have a bit more of an idea of what's going on. The queen of swords looks like she knows and that wolf howling at the moon knows something too. There's this feeling of the unknown but also knowing the unknown here. But, then with this unknown/decision you might have to make, you're reminded to keep balanced. In the temperance card, he's holding the moon in one hand and the sun in another. So, it's like night and day. I think that's suggesting this need for a schedule. Like, maybe a set bedtime? You guys could possibly be more of the night owl type. I guess, in that case, it's just a reminder to get an adequate amount of sleep. So, still setting a set time for sleep and a set time for waking up. Also, it's telling you to take care of yourself overall. The two of pentacles also brings that idea of balance because I mean, this card is about keeping up with everything. It's like, having two things and being able to balance them. Some of the versions of this make it seem like it's time to focus on one and stop trying to do both. In this deck, because the act of balancing is actually his body trying not to fall in the water, I see that this balance of keeping up different things at once is essential. So, say you're in school but you're also working. You're asked to keep up the hard work in both your school work and work-work, while also taking care of yourself. Assuring that you don't fall into the water. On the 2 of pentacles here, the pentacles are on his shirt. He already has these pentacles and I don't see him losing them. Unless he discards the shirt, so it's like unless you actually quit your job or school, you can't really lose them. You can lose the quality, but not the actual pentacle. My favorite thing about the Light Seer's Tarot is that each card has an affirmation. These sum up the card as a whole. Despite the 2 of pentacles being from the Cosmic Tarot, I think the affirmation is particularly noteworthy here: "I create an equilibrium in my life that allows me to be my best self." So, for November I see you going through a door that will close. This door is meant to be closed, but it doesn't mean it can't have a window you can peer into once and a while. You're just not meant to go back through it. Instead, you're meant to step forward into your future. I see that this is going to be abundant. You're asked to remember to follow your gut instincts, but also to keep balanced. To be honest, kind of like the crystal you chose, I just feel a lot of love. And I'm not really reading that as love from someone else (I mean, yes, there could very well be that), instead, I'm reading it as you just radiating love. So, I could say...November sounds lovely for you...lol Songs: Wild Roses - Of Monsters and Men Don’t Give Up Your Ghost - Movements Kill My Time - 5 Seconds of Summer Group 3: Carnelian

Cards: The Empress, The Lovers, Death, Queen of Swords, the Sun, 7 of Pentacles, New Moon in Virgo, Blue Moon, Journey Okay, I'm a little weirded out by the whole shuffling process. Several things happened that were kind of...Oof. First I kept seeing the Queen of Swords and was thinking "I bet that's gonna come out somewhere" and it DID. Then I saw that your Seasons of the Witch card was 24, which adds to 6, which in tarot is the lovers. I've read that 6s can mean journeys too. Well, THEN the lovers came out. Bottom deck energy for the Seasons of the witch is the All Hallow's Eve card. This made me wonder if your "journey" started on Halloween. Well, guys, then the Blue Moon card fell out, and that full moon on Halloween was a blue moon. Granted, all of these are coincidental, but it's just funny how those things work out. If you think something shifted for you on Halloween, then you're correct with thinking that. For some, it's with a love connection. For others, it was you just being able to figure out a little better on where you want to go in life, or where you're headed. So, jumping in, I want to focus on the Empress card first. I love this version because she looks so much more comfortable to me than any of the other empress cards I've seen. She looks relaxed like she has everything she needs. And, I do think one could say materially she has what she needs, but she also looks like she provided it for herself. Nothing on this card suggests it other than her face. She just looks sure of herself. Moving on to the Queen of Swords, while I get a colder energy from her, she also looks kind of similar. She's not in the same posture completely. Her posture could even be argued as not looking very relaxed, but her face makes it look like she's relaxed. She looks like she's content with where she sits. She's looking off into the sky, like, though she's content with where she's at, she's also looking for something. Maybe she's searching in her own brain or scanning the world off of where the card cuts us off from what she sees. They both have their hands to their chins, one seems more sure of herself, but the other still seems sure. So, what I take away from these two cards right away is that you know yourself. Maybe you're saying, "But Sara, I'm only just figuring out who I am?" And, yeah. So am I. Life is this process where we're constantly evolving. One week you have one belief, and the next that could have changed because you've learned 100 new things. You have both the Death and the Journey card. With the lovers and these two other cards, this is saying to me that you are changing. Nothing will be the same next week and nothing will be the same the week after, but you understand your goals and your values and at the end of the day, you're still you. I almost feel that I need to stop and reassure this pile that you're still you. Maybe you've been looking in the mirror lately and not recognizing yourself. Maybe people have been saying things like "I don't know you anymore", but you're still you! YOU ARE STILL YOU! And, this is also telling you to stop, take stock of who you are at this very moment. Be sure of it. That sounds hard to me, so I can understand if you think it does too. But there are things we're sure of. Like your values. Your sense of right and wrong. Hell, the music genre you gravitate towards the most. Those are you and you alone. So, take a moment, take a breath, and think about yourself. Now, I want you to take another moment to just love yourself. No if, ands, or buts. I mean, it. Stop and say to yourself "I love me." And I need you do to it with kindness. Forget the person you flipped off while driving yesterday. Forget that last mean thing you said to someone. Forget that bad grade you got when you were 13 because you were too focused on that band that came to town. Forget it all for a second and take this time to just breathe in and love yourself for who you are in the moment. Okay. Now that that's done. Onto what's coming. Well, like the other two piles change. Everyone today seems to be going through changes. Though, it's different for everyone. Pile one was asked to take a calculated risk, but still go for it. Pile two was asked to move forward and to not move backwards. You're asked to move forward gently. And I don't mean cautiously, though with New Moon in Virgo, I'd say there is some calculation needed here. But, I still don't mean cautiously. I mean, with love. With kindness. With you being the best that you can be to others and yourself. Something is just telling me that someone reading this is really upset with themselves, and I just want you to know that while you're still you and there are some of those core things that you still have, you're also not the same person you were yesterday or 5 hours ago, and that's okay. That's life. And you need to understand that we all fuck up and we all say things we don't mean sometimes, but that doesn't set anything in stone. That doesn't define you as a horrible person. Shit happens and sometimes that shit happens because we did it. But? I still love you and you should still love you too. The more you stop to love yourself and be kind to yourself, the more you're going to discover about yourself. And while you're discovering yourself, there's a need to look ahead while simultaneously staying present. On the Death card, there's a clock stuck in the ground, frozen. I almost want to say to you that time doesn't matter. I mean, yes if you have a shift that starts at 10, by all means, go to it on time. But, in the grand scheme of things, time doesn't matter, and for you, it means that your path is not linear, nor does it have a set schedule. God, I cannot believe I'm doing this, but I had a manager that I have to quote. He once said to me that he didn't believe in time. As a history major, that confused me to no end. Like, I got where he was coming from, but my whole life consists of time time time. I thought in dates. I know dates well and dates are time. But now I kind of see it. It's this idea that life isn't time, it's lessons. Does that make sense? And, I think that's what he meant, lol. He also tended to be really cryptic so, I could be totally wrong, but this is what I'm taking from the whole thing. The Journey card from the Seasons of the Witch deck says something along the same vein to me: "Daughters of our Mother, walkers of the unknown, take with you on this journey all that you hone." So, all we need is to live and take those lessons with us as we live. And, the Virgo card also reminds me of Virgos in general. They're known to be super analytical, so there's this thought that while you need to take lessons at their face value, you also need to dive into them too. It's like reading a book by its cover. There are things to take from that cover, like how the title font presents itself to you and what the illustration/picture is, but then there's also the content inside the book. Both the cover and the content matter. Don't judge a book by its cover, but also take in what's presented to you. The seven of pentacles always means have patience whenever I pull it for myself, so I read it that way for you too. There is no set schedule (like that whole time thing, right? it's nonexistent) and that might make you antsy. But, what good does that do? You could be chilling like the Empress. Or, you could be sitting and watching that cucumber you planted last week sprout, despite knowing that it's still going to take time. One definitely sounds more relaxing. 7 of Pentacles suggests this patience because it takes more than a week for a good thing to grow, you know? And, I mean, yeah you can make things in a day, but there's that saying, "Rome wasn't built in a day." Rome was built over a VERY long period of time, going through different types of governments and it switched around between paganism and Christianity. There were a lot of changes within that long period of time. I know I went on a rant earlier about time and how it's nonexistent, and blah blah blah. However, there's also this idea that even though you need to not be focusing on time, you also need to know that for things that are quality, it takes time. Like, time and effort. No half-assed shit, right? But, I mean that in a loving way. And, this, by all means, is about you changing. So, this is something that is going to take time to hone in on. Something that's going to take finesse. It's going to take experience and love. That may be something hard to hear. Trust me, I know this. Depression is a beast and I know how that and other mental illness can really fuck with you and your perception of the world and of yourself. But, both 7 of Pentacles and New Moon in Virgo suggest taking a moment and looking at where you are and where you're going. So, again, that idea of staying present while also moving forward. But, also being analytical (but not OVER analytical). And while you're looking at where you are, there's a need to stop and be okay with where you're at, too. This is especially for my buds who are having a hard time mentally. I know that when you're in the thick of it, it's hard to get out of the fog. That some days, or even weeks, you end it with tears and it's hard to stay motivated to do anything. With me, it's a bad cycle where I lack that motivation, but to feel worthy I need to be working. It's a cruel thing that I do to myself, because my worth is not within my productivity, and I think as a society that's something (at least for all my American friends) we need to remember. There are days when the only thing you do is just getting out of bed to get food and honestly, that's better than nothing. So, it's taking stock of the things, little and big, that you accomplish. Which, that definitely adds to that idea that time for you is not linear and that it's going to take you more time to do things other people can get done in a week or two. But, then on the flip-side, there are other things that will take you less time than it would for someone else. Nothing's linear and no one's the same. No one's path is a duplicate of someone else's journey. Harry Style's song, Golden came on. There's that line where he says "You're so golden", and I think you need to hear that right now. It definitely makes me think of the Sun card, which you got. It's this card of immense happiness. Abundance. It's a beautiful card and in this deck, it's bright, super bright. So, yeah. I'd say you're so golden. And I think this is more a matter of you being the sun like you need to stop and see yourself as that. Maybe you're someone that gives so much to others but not yourself. Honestly, from what I was getting earlier I can see that. So, maybe circling back to how relaxed both the Empress and the Queen of Swords look, maybe this is a message to you to relax? Relaxing and maybe taking stock of those lessons that have been presented to you. There's also a need to take care of yourself with the New Moon in Virgo. It just suggests eating healthier and what-not, so I'd add that to the relaxation. Like, relax and take care of yourself. And, gosh, again, I gotta bring up depression because it's really simple for me to be like "HEY YOU! Take care of your body!" but, I know what it's like to not want to exist. So, if that's the case, I want you to take it day by day, breath by breath. Start out small, get a glass of water, take some deep breaths. Do something that makes you feel good (that's also not detrimental to your health). I also think you're asked to believe that you can accomplish what you want to accomplish. It's like, you can achieve so much, but you also have to make sure that you're taking care of yourself on your way. So while there could be obstacles outside of you, you're your biggest obstacle. One thing I should note is that you got the Blue Moon card. This suggests that you may get an opportunity of some sort that's rare. Now, this could mean a lot of things with these other cards. One I can see is travel with the journey card. I see it more as outside into nature really, with the colors from the Virgo card and the forest on the Blue Moon card. Like, a camping trip? Honestly, right now I'd give anything to go camping, so if you go, send me pictures! Another for someone is maybe meeting someone you click well with, whether it be platonically or romantically with the Lovers. If that's the case, I see this relationship being really good, like nurturing and abundant. Full of joy and good times. Another is maybe just a chance to just take a step back and rest with both the Empress and the Queen of swords. Either way, I see this as being something that you consider to be good. It will also transform you in some way, more than how you're changing now. I can't really get into more because it just feels like this is super general because I feel like a lot of you are choosing this pile. I do suggest that if you felt called to the other two piles, I'd go look at them since they're all about change too. The bottom of one of the decks is the Star, so I see that there is a hopeful energy to this and that whatever is going to happen, you're going to start feeling more hopeful. But also, promise me you'll be kind to yourselves? Music:

Golden - Harry Styles Was It Something I Said? - Mykey

#tarot #pick a pile #pick a card #tarot reading #november pick a pile

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blockwarden · 4 years

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A Modern Approach to an Age-Old Issue: Epidemics and Emergency Management

So, long time no see, y’all! I know I promised I’d queue up some stuff after surgery, but life got very complicated very quickly. But I wanted to post something due to the growing concern of COVID-19 from an emergency management standpoint.

The agency that I work for thankfully has not seen any cases, rumored or otherwise, of COVID-19, but we are expecting a portion of our served population to be returning from Florence, Italy in the next week, so with that comes a heightened sense of alarm within the community. Of course, I have the upmost faith in all agencies and parties involved to ensure complete and total safety, but planning for the worst is kind of the name of the game.

To begin, I’d like to clear up some confusion I’ve seen online, and to set some ground rules. First (and this is the ugliest topic I’ll talk about tonight, I promise!) is the rampant, casual racism I’ve seen on social media and in person since the discovery of COVID-19 in late December. I won’t get into the details of things said, but, as with all epidemics originating outside of the United States, some incredibly sickening and bigoted things have been said, which is anathema to emergency management and public health and safety. When there is an emergency--be it a tornado, landslide, nuclear bomb, or epidemic--race should never be a part of the conversation, and emergency managers and responders alike should never take it into account. When people are hurt, sick, or dying, when buildings are crumbling, streets are flooding, or bullets are flying, there is no room nor justification for racism. COVID-19 honestly could have started anywhere. The next epidemic could start in Canada, or the UK, or the US. It just so happens that COVID-19 started in China and is largely impacting that area.

Secondly, there is a lot of talk about the influenza versus COVID-19, and a lot of it is very misguided. While the flu is a dangerous virus, it only has a mortality rate between 0.1 and 0.5%. This mortality rate is measured over a year’s time. COVID-19, meanwhile, has between a 2-4% mortality rate measured between three to four months. For every 100 persons to get the flu, one with die. For every 100 persons to get COVID-19, 2-4 will die. The flu has vaccines, over-the-counter treatments like Theraflu, and is a very heavily-studied family of viruses. COVID-19, on the other hand, is extremely new. There is no vaccine, and we barely understand how it transmits, let alone if any mutations have happened with it. The CDC, The World Health Organization, Medicines Sans Frontieres, and etc agencies would not be responding to COVID-19 as strongly as they are if it was “harmless” compared to the common flu. It also should be noted that if the flu were new like COVID-19, these agencies would be responding much the same. So now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk emergency management.

Every single emergency management agency has plans in place for nearly every situation imaginable. Mine even has a plan for if a train on a nearby line derails while carrying hazardous waste. These plans follow (roughly) the Prepare, Respond, Recover, and Mitigate template.

First, an agency must have proper planning in place. This including training, logistics, and equipment management. In the case of public health with something like COVID-19, this includes plans for dispersing at risk populations, providing temporary shelter to displaced people, maintaining the integrity of medicines and medical supplies, and transportation. The CDC has placed preparedness staff across the country to assist local EMAs in this, however, there are none of these Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP) staff members in the states of South Carolina, Missouri, and Kansas. When a state activates assistance from a PHEP, a stockpile of medications, vaccines, personal protective equipment, and other medically necessary items are deployed, along with federal medical centers that act as temporary hospitals and are staffed by experts who continuously travel between areas to assist when and as necessary.

This PHEP program has been activated for hurricanes, Ebola, the Zika virus, 9/11, and the H1N1 epidemic, and has proven to be an effective organization for emergency management.

Response isn’t just the CDC hearing about an epidemic and running out to investigate; response also includes laboratories around the country who mobilize to research the data of an emergency: be it water levels from a flood or a virus. Laboratories work to identity, diagnose, treat, and prevent chemical and biological emergencies as a part of the Lab Response Network partnership with the CDC.

Response also falls on the shoulders of the emergency leaders, who face an extensive and rigorous criteria for the role as coordinator, director, and mentor. They are taught to “speak the same language” as the rest of the EMA and responding agencies in order to ensure clear and concise communication at all times.

Recovery is the point after which the dust settles and focuses on the “return to normalcy” in population. It’s a joint effort between the CDC, FEMA, the Red Cross, and federal, state, and local assistance agencies, while mitigation is the “lesson learned” from it all. It’s the “what could we have done better” and “what can we take away from this”. Mitigation is the part of emergency management that really builds the planning, as no simulation or textbook will ever yield the kind of data an actual real-life situation could.

So what would it look like if COVID-19 became a serious threat in the United States?

It’s actually kind of hard to tell right now, with there being so many unknowns when it comes to the virus itself. Person-to-person transmission is handled very differently than community spread, and as we learn more about the virus and how to treat it, things will change. This is an incredibly fluid situation. But the tenants of public health, safety, and emergency management and preparedness stay the same. The plans in place will be deployed, but will change as the threat changes. Will people be dying on the street, will there be rioting, will there be martial law and a complete breakdown of society? No. But some things may change. We may see further travel restrictions. We may see mandatory curfews. We may see more and more public events cancelled, and more screenings done when travelling or entering a public space. My agency’s emergency guideline for pandemic response looks like this:

You’ll note that there’s no “WE WILL DECLARE MARTIAL LAW AND SHOOT ANYONE THAT LOOKS SICK” clause because that’s not what emergency management is, despite what the movies want you to think. But, you should note, that that good old “two weeks supply” standard that the Federal Civil Defense Administration started in 1951 still stands today, and really, preparing for a pandemic is much the same as preparing for any other emergency. You don’t need to be wearing a mask in public unless directed to by a medical professional, you don’t need to be locking yourself in a bunker, and you certainly don’t need to be avoiding drinking Corona beer (which is the best next to Blue Moon, if I should say so myself). You don’t need to disinfect your packages from China, and you don’t need to go out and buy everything CVS/your local drugstore carries.

As of right now, the only concerns to the American public with COVID-19 are shipping delays and a potential shortage of prescription medications, as many pills and ingredients come from the affected countries.

If you are still incredibly worried about COVID-19, the best things you can do are:

Wash your hands.

Avoid touching your face.

Stay home if you don’t feel well.

The second best thing you can do is donate.

These numbers you see on TV, the pictures of hospitals beds, the man that died on the streets of Wuhan, the old couple detained on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, these are all people. People like you and me. And while our agencies both domestic and foreign and international are doing all they can, there may come a time when they cannot do it all.

In the spirit of this blog and civil defense--the homegrown, neighborly helping hand--I’m asking you to think with your heart in the case of COVID-19 and do what you can. To think before you say hurtful, bigoted things. To research the things you post lest you cause panic. To reach out to your neighbors of the world and stand with them.

#articles #coronavirus #covid-19 #emergency management #public health #public safety

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gduncan969 · 4 years

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What is Happening to the Church?

2 Thessalonians 2: 1 - 2 “Now, brethren, concerning the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ and our gathering together to Him, we ask you, not to be soon shaken in mind or troubled, either by spirit or by word or by letter, as if from us, as though the day of Christ had come. Let no one deceive you by any means; for that Day will not come unless the falling away comes first..’

It’s now been over four months since the government shut down the churches and banned Christians from holding services together as they have for centuries because of the risk of spreading the Covid-19 virus. There has been some relief these last few weeks to allow limited numbers to assemble in church provided they separate at least six feet apart or twelve feet if they want to sing and everyone must wear a mask. As we all look for an end to this difficult time the news is now that a second wave is raising its ugly head and the wearing of masks is now mandatory in all closed public spaces with heavy fines for those who don’t obey. As a result, many are wondering if the end to all of this is much further away than we’d hoped and will anything be the same when it’s all over? We have been warned that when it does end there will be “a new normal”—whatever that means. The big question is, “How is the Church of Jesus Christ” coping with all of this?” Is it surviving, thriving or dying through it all. The final answer to this question is clearly spelled out in the bible—we win! Jesus said to Peter in Matthew 16:18 “..I will build my church; and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it”. Jesus is coming back for a spotless Bride, the Church, to which all who call on his name belong but He warned us in Matthew 24:21-22 the time before he comes will be a time of trial and tribulation “such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.” That sounds to me like things will get pretty tough as we head into the final days before He comes and the one thing we will needs lots of is endurance because He told us (Matthew 10:22) “you will be hated by all for My name’s sake. But he who endures to the end will be saved”. Endurance is not something to look forward to but it is the one thing that will be necessary to survive.

So, how is the Church enduring this pandemic? The Barna Research Group has just released a poll describing the state of the Church in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. The poll’s headline is: “One in Three Practicing Christians Has Stopped Attending Church During COVID-19". At first glance, I thought they must be referring to practicing Christians unable to attend church due to the government shut-down of churches but surely they must still be attending “on-line” either with their own local assembly or maybe “church-hopping” to one of the many mega-church broadcasts that fill our TV screens? Not so, it turns out! One in three practicing Christians has quit attending any church whatsoever! That is an extremely disturbing statistic by any standard and it suggests a worrisome “falling away” from the Church and its message of salvation through the atoning blood of the Lord Jesus Christ. Also, it’s of little comfort to realize that Barna studied only the US Church because I suspect the picture for the Church in Canada and many other countries will be similar. Worse still, Barna also found that among millennial Christians—our youth, half are not attending any church whatsoever! We can convince ourselves that it’s only temporary, that everything will return to normal once a vaccine is found. We can reassure ourselves that the Church is not a building but a body; not an organization but an organism and that we can continue through this time of separation from each other without any real harm being done but that’s not what these numbers are telling us. For the Church to be a real body and not a virtual (digital) body it must come together as an assembly to worship and praise the Lord and grow in relationship with Him and each other. This cannot happen at a distance and cannot be stopped for long without incurring the losses that the poll shows. Laying this sad picture against the backdrop of a world in turmoil, the daily mayhem and madness in many US cities, politicians scrambling to defund the police, the media trying to convince us we are all racists, the financial upheaval, the gender confusion, the loneliness, depression and suicides and an upcoming election in the US which is a ticking time bomb for untold lawlessness, we are forced to ask, “What does all this mean, Lord?” If a third of all practicing Christians and half of all young practicing Christians are no longer attending any church what kind of relationship do they have with the Body of Christ? If that’s too painful a subject to contemplate, we might simply write the whole thing off as a glitch, an anomaly that will evaporate once we have a vaccine at which time everything will return to what is was before. Given the multitude of prophecies appearing on social media these days about what lies ahead, it appears that God is beginning to shake the whole earth in readiness for His coming and He’s beginning with His Church. Are we ready?

2 Thessalonians 2: 1 - 12 clearly speaks of the days before the Lord returns: “Now, brethren, concerning the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ and our gathering together to Him, we ask you, not to be soon shaken in mind or troubled, either by spirit or by word or by letter, as if from us, as though the day of Christ had come. Let no one deceive you by any means; for that Day will not come unless the falling away comes first, and the man of sin is revealed, the son of perdition, who opposes and exalts himself above all that is called God or that is worshiped, so that he sits as God in the temple of God, showing himself that he is God. Do you not remember that when I was still with you I told you these things? And now you know what is restraining, that he may be revealed in his own time. For the mystery of lawlessness is already at work; only He who now restrains will do so until He is taken out of the way. And then the lawless one will be revealed, whom the Lord will consume with the breath of His mouth and destroy with the brightness of His coming. The coming of the lawless one is according to the working of Satan, with all power, signs, and lying wonders, and with all unrighteous deception among those who perish, because they did not receive the love of the truth, that they might be saved. And for this reason God will send them strong delusion, that they should believe the lie, that they all may be condemned who did not believe the truth but had pleasure in unrighteousness.”

We are not to be soon shaken in mind or troubled and we are not to be deceived because Jesus will give us clear signals of His impending return: there will first be a “falling away” from the Church followed by the coming of the “lawless one” who will dazzle and delude the world with lying signs and wonders. Hmmm!!! “falling away”? Isn’t that what Barna is reporting. “Lawlessness”, “deception” and “delusion”. Isn’t that what fills our TV screens right now with the riots across the globe? Will the rioters soon turn their attention to the churches to vent their hatred? It’s already begun. There are many other signs the Lord has given His Church about his return (see Luke 28) but in all of them we are given the promise that He will never leave us and never forsake us and we will be held safe provided we endure to the end (Mark 13:13). It is that last phrase that presents our greatest challenge. The only way we will ever know how to endure anything is to endure through it so get ready.

What’s the answer for the Local Church?

Besides Covid-19, there’s a pandemic of confusion across the world right now as billions of common folk try to sort out the conflicting advice of thousands of “experts” while their governments keep changing the rules controlling how they must behave. Lock-downs, quarantines, face masks, travel restrictions, job losses, schooling and a host of other issues pile on to the stress and strain caused by the virus and even local churches are feeling the impact. Churches are being torn apart from the contentions arising between those fearful of the virus who demand strict adherence to the government’s rules and those rejecting the fear and objecting to the governments’ interference in the life of the Church. Some argue for what appears to be blind obedience to the dictates of their government using the scriptures found in Romans 13:1, “Let every soul be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and the authorities that exist are appointed by God.”; Titus 3:1, “Remind them to be subject to rulers and authorities, to obey, to be ready for every good work,” and 1 Peter 2:13 , “Therefore submit yourselves to every ordinance of man for the Lord’s sake..,” while others use Peter’s defense against the pharisees in Acts 4:18 - 20 “So they called them and commanded them not to speak at all nor teach in the name of Jesus. But Peter and John answered and said to them, “Whether it is right in the sight of God to listen to you more than to God, you judge. For we cannot but speak the things which we have seen and heard.” as the reason for their disobedience. As time passes, cracks continue to appear in the social order as evidenced by the “Black Lives Matter” protests and riots in the US and around the world, the “Defund the Police” movement in the US, the mayhem occurring nightly in some US cities and the upcoming US election, the result of which will be a tipping point between law and order and riot and rebellion. Also, the large numbers of “practicing Christians” who have given up attending church is a symptom of what the Church—particularly the western Church—has been suffering from for many years, a lethargy towards the “great commission” of taking His Gospel to the neighbours we live beside, a lukewarmness towards the gospel of the Lord Jesus Christ, and a lazy attitude towards the gross sin pervasive in our culture as seen in the abortion statistics, homosexual practice, marriage breakdown, gender confusion, political correctness and media corruption, etc., etc.

If we can accept it, Covid-19 is the Lord’s wake-up call to His Church to be the Church He is building, a Church that will turn the world upside down rather than run terrified from a virus that God has promised “shall (not) come nigh our dwelling” (Psalm 91:10). I don’t believe the Lord is looking for a Church that blindly obeys authorities when the authorities arbitrarily forbid the church from meeting together, praying together, worshiping together and ministering together under the cloak of “the common good”. We can all understand the need for caution in dealing with this virus and why the rules have been put in place but we are also aware of the inherent conflict that can arise between “the common good” and the Church. We cannot serve two masters, the Lord Jesus and the civil authorities. The “common good” can easily be used as a sledge hammer by the authorities to beat the Church into submission and there is already growing concern that the “new normal” being touted by the authorities might well include compulsory vaccinations as a precondition to entry into public buildings and proof of vaccination as an implanted chip in the hand. If this is where we are headed, (and I hope not) then we are indeed entering “the time of the end” (Daniel 11:35).

Jesus is building a Church that demonstrates His Power over all the power of the enemy— including his viruses, a Church that is breaking down the gates of Hell and setting the devil’s captives free, a Church with the ability to say, “Thus saith the Lord...” and to stake their very lives on the truth of His Word! That kind of power is in very short supply in most of our churches today and there will be no change until churches across the land fall on their knees and repent for failing to be the salt and light Jesus has declared us to be. This will take more than a revival, it will take a new awakening to the power of the Holy Spirit that Jesus has invested in each believer: a baptism of fire. It will result in church members no longer remaining passive participants in the pews “Having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof” and “Ever learning, and never able to come to the knowledge of the truth” (2 Timothy 3: 5, 7). As Paul said to the Corinthians “How is it then, brethren? Whenever you come together, each of you has a psalm, has a teaching, has a tongue, has a revelation, has an interpretation. Let all things be done for edification.” (1 Corinthians 14:26) That in no way describes the current model for church gatherings which see the congregation mostly sit placidly while those on the platform perform. We can no longer remain as passive participants in our churches and our pastors can no longer carry the weight of responsibilities that we are laying upon them at this time, a weight that is leading many to quit the pulpit discouraged and dismayed. No amount of digital savvy and technical wizardry, electronic gadgetry and slick delivery will ever substitute for what’s at the heart of the Gospel message—a personal vibrant, living, active relationship with the Lord Jesus Christ and His people. Ultimately, it matters little what we say we believe. Rather, it’s about WHO we are, WHO we know and WHAT we DO that the world wants to see from the Church. It’s a relationship with a real Person people want to see, that the Church has real answers to their deepest needs whether it be broken relationships, wayward children, physical calamity, financial worries or Covid-19 and they want to see it both in its members and its pastors.

I sense there are troublesome days ahead when the faith of many will be tested. If a single virus pandemic can result in a third of the church walking away, what will some serious persecution do to the rest? Some churches in the US have already been attacked by rioters and set on fire but there’s encouraging news from a church in Seattle, Washington which went ahead and held a city-wide public praise rally last Sunday evening. Between four and seven thousand people showed up to take part and despite the continuous attempts by violent protestors, Antifa and others flashing knives and threatening participants and a satanist group screaming their praise to Satan to break up the gathering, the people refused to be intimidated and never stopped singing. As a result, the Holy Spirit moved among them with salvations, healings, miracles and baptisms. Would you take part in such a gathering with all the risks it involves---even if the government declares it illegal? That’s the kind of decision we may all have to make in the days that lie ahead and it’s the kind of decision that requires some heart-searching on our knees before God before we decide. Such decisions will not be taken lightly because they may cost us dearly but they will have to be taken. Again, Jesus has told us that “He that endures to the end will be saved” and we can rest on His promise.

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shirlleycoyle · 4 years

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The Viral ‘Study’ About Runners Spreading Coronavirus Is Not Actually a Study

In the last 24 hours, a computer simulation by a team of Belgian engineers that tracks the “spread droplets” and “slipstream” of the exhalations, coughs, and sneezes of people who are running, walking, or cycling has gone viral. Perhaps you have seen this gif on Twitter, Facebook, or NextDoor. Or, as some people on our staff have seen, perhaps write-ups of it have been texted to you by concerned friends or family:

Though this was not the specific goal of the simulation, it is currently being used on neighborhood groups and social media as scientific evidence that people who are jogging and biking are putting others at risk. If you are getting “droplets” or “globules” on you, the thinking goes, you are at risk of contracting coronavirus.

“People should read and not misread my tweets and texts,” Bert Blocken of Eindhoven University of Technology, the lead researcher on the simulation, wrote in an email to Motherboard. “I have never and nowhere discouraged people from walking, running, or cycling. Rather the opposite. Maybe people should read more, and react less.”

Blocken has yet to publish a peer-reviewed paper about the simulation. In fact, he hasn't even published a non-peer-reviewed study. Instead, he spoke to a reporter in Belgium about it, who wrote a news article, which has now been aggregated and shared widely by many publications. Given what Blocken has put into the world, taken at face value, some people are understandably concluding that it is impossible to run or cycle safely in many cities; he recommends a distance of 65 feet between bikers and other people, something that is impossible to do in cities. The issue with Blocken’s suggestion that we “read more, and react less” is that there is almost nothing to read, and there is no study to critique.

Blocken’s team took the extraordinary step of speaking to the media about his research before publishing anything about it. There is no written study to read or interpret. We do not know the specifics about how the study was done or how the simulation was run because the research team has not shared that information.

On Twitter, Blocken said the “crisis is urgent, so exceptionally we turned order upside down: (1) media, (2) today I submitted the proposal for funding (3) peer review article later. Public cannot wait months for peer review. I have a short text, I will post it on Linked In within the next hour.”

A day later, that LinkedIn post has not been published. What the team has published is something that it’s calling a “white paper,” but which is actually a Google-translated version of the Belgian newspaper article that was not written by Blocken or his team, but which quotes him. Ansys, the company that did the simulation in concert with Blocken, has also published a short but vague press release. In the meantime, this simulation has gone viral.

Studies like this are "not really useful. Not to epidemiologists anyway. The amount of transmission from this route even if it is possible will be dwarfed by that from others."

A Medium post written by Jurgen Thoelen, who describes himself as an “entrepreneur, building clouds in all forms and shapes and life-long athlete” has been shared thousands of times. On Facebook and Twitter, the article is being shared in neighborhood groups and is being used to spur a battle between pedestrians and runners and cyclists. A typical comment is something like this, shared in an Iowa City "Quarantine Survival" Facebook page: “Omg people keep doing this. Runners and bikers with zero regard for fellow pedestrians 🤬🤬” The simulation has also been written up by the Daily Mail, while gifs, stills, and memes of the simulation, shared with little or no context, have spread on their own.

This is all to say that we are unsure of the specifics of this study, what it actually shows, what its limitations might be, and how it was done. What it's suggesting could be accurate and useful, but we have no way of knowing that at the moment. And yet, this research is already being used to ask people to change their behavior and held up as definitive evidence that running and cycling are irresponsible during the pandemic.

Blocken said in an email that this was not his intention.

“Choice made in agreement with all the researchers involved and both university media agencies. The crisis is worldwide and the situation is urgent,” Blocken wrote. “We did not want to keep results behind closed doors until we have found the time to write down the full story. If I would have done the opposite, we would receive criticism about that. Never possible to do right for everybody. Given all the fuss I notice now, I will do an extra other late night effort and post the full story on Linked In tonight.”

“By the way this is aerodynamics work, not virology. Good luck with speeding up procedures in engineering journals," Blocken added. "COVID-19 will not wait months or until our paper is published."

Blocken is right: We face an urgent situation, and it’s important to get rigorous science out as quickly as possible. But hundreds of other scientists have managed to publish peer reviewed research about coronavirus in the last few weeks, on an expedited time scale. Thousands of others have published studies that are not peer reviewed, but that are at least studies in the way we usually think of them: Their methods and findings are explained in a rigorous way that can be critiqued. Even though this is a dire situation, scientific publishing safeguards exist for a reason, and we've already seen during this pandemic that a rushed process has led to bad, inaccurate science being published (that's not to suggest that Blocken's research is bad or inaccurate science, we simply have no way of knowing based on what's been published.)

Even if the simulations hold water and are accurate, virologists and experts should be the ones making public health recommendations, not random "entrepreneurs" on Medium, which is what has happened because these simulations were not published with the specifics of how they were done or what they mean. This type of research is of course important and should be done, but it should be released in a responsible way, with the caveats, limitations, and unknowns explained clearly. Then the research should be used by virologists and public health officials to make concrete recommendations to people.

I showed Blocken's research to William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard's Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. He said that the virality of Blocken's research is harmful, and that Blocken's suggestion in the white paper that this research is a "modest contribution" toward the fight against Covid-19 "makes my blood boil."

"Where the droplets are is much less relevant than the amount of transmission that occurs via this route"

Crucially, scientists are still unsure how well the coronavirus spreads in the air, and many have cautiously speculated that the overall risk of transmission appears to be less outdoors. Globules and droplets do likely carry the virus, but that doesn’t mean that anyone who gets a droplet on them from someone’s breath is going to be infected. Transmission depends on a host of factors; scientists believe an important one of these is “viral load,” which is a measure of how much of the virus is present.

"On the epidemiology side—where the droplets are is much less relevant than the amount of transmission that occurs via this route," Hanage said. "Advice on physical distancing is really about *reducing* the risk of transmission rather than eliminating it altogether."

He said studies like this are "not really useful. Not to epidemiologists anyway. The amount of transmission from this route even if it is possible will be dwarfed by that from others." He added "it's concerning" how fast the study has traveled … especially "when you consider I have had to write this email rather than putting the finishing touches to a model of nosocomial transmission [in hospitals]."

In a footnote on the white paper, Blocken admits “currently the subject of intensive debates between scientists world‐wide—is to what extent the residue of micro‐droplets with the virus, after evaporation, still carries an infection risk. Further virology research should shed more light on this issue.” Last week, the Atlantic's Ed Yong spoke to many virologists about this, and there currently is no consensus about how dangerous it is to exercise or be outside, but there is much research suggesting that the mental health benefits of exercising outdoors are important and should be taken seriously.

The issue of viral load and transmission is not addressed or mentioned in the Medium article nor in the Belgian newspaper Blocken spoke to.

When I asked if he was concerned about the fact his work had gone viral, especially in write-ups by non-experts, he said, “I am surprised by this question. You with your expertise should know that one can control the first line of media attention, and then people write stories of the stories, and it is impossible to control," Blocken wrote. "That would have happened equally if the full paper had already been published. This is not my first big media coverage, so I have been there, done that. There is free press."

Hanage said it's probably OK to exercise outside as long as you "apply common sense."

"I think there is a balance," he said, "other than in the situation where there are really really high rates of community transmission."

The Viral ‘Study’ About Runners Spreading Coronavirus Is Not Actually a Study syndicated from https://triviaqaweb.wordpress.com/feed/

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forlawfirmsonlymarketing · 4 years

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Preparing E-Commerce for the Post-COVID Bounce Back Posted by MrLukeCarthy

Posted by MrLukeCarthy COVID-19 has switched up life as we know it, and it’s unlikely to stop doing so for some time. E-commerce shopping is a perfect example of how things have changed, and in a number of ways. If you feel like Shopify has been dropping huge, disruptive news bombs practically each week now, you’re right! And who’d have guessed that in the UK, the exclusively online supermarket, Ocado, is now worth more than brick-and-mortar grocers Morrisons, Sainsbury's, and Marks and Spencer combined. The speed of transformation in e-commerce since the COVID-19 outbreak (an already fast-paced industry) has been savage. Supply chains are under strain for many brands selling online (especially where demand is high and supplies are low). How do you best manage expectations and maximize every opportunity to sell to your target audience? With your consumers now relying on the world of online shopping more than ever, how can you be sure you're getting your fair share of that online retail pie? Well, this post is designed to help you answer precisely these questions. Whether your sales have taken a hit or you have “off the wall” levels of demand, here are some ideas to help you navigate that bounce back and to help customers stay in love with your brand.

Pay close attention to changing on site search behavior

Your site search is a goldmine of insight, especially right now. Seriously. Frequently checking in to understand how and what your customers are looking for once they get to your store can reveal a bunch of opportunities. It's possible that before COVID-19 took a stronghold on everyday life, customers had different contexts in mind when searching for your products. For example, searches for “gloves” today vs. in January are likely to be visitors searching for two separate products entirely. It's important to ensure that you're serving today's customer sufficiently and addressing their context correctly to remain relevant and to improve conversion. Here's an extreme example, but it's a poignant one nonetheless. For context, Holland and Barrett are a popular, high street healthcare retailer with a strong web presence here in the UK. When searches for “coronavirus” had skyrocketed and demand for hand sanitizer and Paracetamol (another brand of acetaminophen, like Tylenol) were painfully high, what I found incredible was that searching for “coronavirus” on their website yielded no results. This seemed particularly jarring for a retailer that, first, sells items that have been scientifically proven to kill and help prevent the spread of the virus and, second, is a dedicated healthcare business. Not only does this throw a huge wrench in the works when it comes to CX and customer perception, this tiny yet costly oversight is likely to have cost them sales and customers too. Customers are also searching for products that aren't typically associated with a certain brand or online store due to exhausted stocks elsewhere. For example, the top three search terms for one of my e-commerce clients are now "Mask", "mask", and "PPE". The search terms “mask”, “PPE”, and close variants were practically non-existent prior to mid-May. Kit and Ace, a clothing retailer, has responded to precisely this changing behavior. After seeing a huge spike in the number of site searches for masks, they're now introducing a new, premium, scientifically-derived mask that also fits their brand. They’re donating 100% of profits from the masks, but this tactic will likely to drive more sales in their other categories too. This is a great move, especially since apparel sales have shrunk during this time. It's important to find emerging opportunities when typical product lines are no longer in demand. The point I'm trying to make here is that, in order to succeed coming out of the other side of this pandemic, you need to ensure you're fully in tune with the wants and needs of today's customer — whatever that looks like for you. Using site search can absolutely give you a huge window into their demands and interests.

If products are out of stock, offer excellent alternatives (where possible)

As touched on earlier, supply chain management is going to be increasingly challenging — especially in areas where demand is outstripping supply — yet so many retailers miss out here. For some products, it doesn't matter how hard you try, every retailer has them listed as “out of stock.” For branded items that have stock issues globally, being the retailer that offers a perfectly good alternative could be enough to win over that visitor and win the sale that other retailers have lost. To use a specific example, FTX is a manufacturer of radio-controlled cars, and is a brand sold on Europe e-commerce site Wheelspin. There's an FTX item that you cannot get before the end of June (for love nor money) on any website due to COVID-19. The pandemic has forced factories to close and that disrupts production for many goods. Specifically, in this example, it's the FTX brushed motor that's become victim to supply chain issues. However, there's a brand that has a perfectly suitable alternative item that's identical in specification, and it’s in stock: Proactively offering solid alternatives with as few compromises as possible can be a great way of winning sales and delighting customers in a way that your competitors likely won't be.

Add an “in stock only” filter

Continuing on the topic of store stock and managing a turbulent supply chain, a simple but welcome feature is to add an “items in stock” filter. It goes without saying that allowing customers to browse items they’re able to get their hands on quickly will go down well and could help improve conversion on your website. Another benefit of adding such a filter is the ability to bring light to other lines that are typically overshadowed by more popular (but now out of stock) items. Taking this a step further, you could also help your customers experience by adding a filter for products expected to arrive within a certain timeframe, or filter out those that can be backordered.

Add an “email me when back in stock” CTA

If you're a retailer struggling to get stock of popular lines, there's a good chance you're not the only retailer with that problem. Although it may not be possible to get stock any quicker than your competitors, you can absolutely ensure that you're the first to let potential customers know that it's back in stock.

Sweeten the deal by personalizing the back-in-stock email

Letting a potential customer know that the item's back in stock is great, but why not suprise and delight your customers by taking the opportunity to personalize this email too? Offering personalized cross-sells of the item that's now back in stock can be a great way to not only give them the good news, but give them additional reasons to visit your shop and potentially increase basket value simultaneously. It's certainly a win, win here.

Remarket to people when items are back in stock

People are spending more time online — fact. So it makes sense to reach your audience where they're most likely to be spending time for the foreseeable future. Depending on the popularity of an item (and how much traffic is going to it whilst it's remained unavailable), you could create a retargeting list based on visitors that expressed an interest in it now that it's back in stock. This can prove to be a great way to reach people, say on social media, that aren't particularly responsive to email but are spending increased amounts of time on their favorite social platforms. Although this may not be scalable, or at least I haven't found a way to make it so, doing this across your top-selling lines or lines with greater margins could prove to be a successful way of pulling engaged and semi-invested visitors back to your site.

Don't be afraid to increase prices where necessary

Let's not forget the basic principles of commerce, right? High demand (coupled with low supply) increases prices. Businesses shouldn't feel guilty for increasing prices, but of course, there's a difference between a justifiable increase and straight ripping people off (as demonstrated below): For context, four tins of 400g Heinz Spaghetti Plus Sausage would retail at around £4 in UK supermarkets (that’s about $5 at current exchange rates). Think about this scenario for a second: You and your staff are potentially working in environments that could pose serious health risks. Plus there's additional costs to consider in order to keep people safe. PPE, cleaning products, masks, sick pay for unwell staff, etc., all these factors will push up the cost per sale and erode your margins. Equally, there are no guarantees right now. Those all-time high levels of sales could come slamming to a fierce halt at any time. Whether that's caused by a change in demand, decrease in stock, or your business is no longer able to fulfil orders due to an internal COVID-19 outbreak. Increasing prices fairly to better protect your business against these mostly uncontrollable factors is not a bad thing. In my opinion, it's just good business sense. You've got to ensure your business is as robust as it can be when faced with these potential eventualities. Increasing your prices fairly can help to better protect it.

Discover creative ways to connect with your audience

As the saying goes, “when life gives you lemons, make lemonade”. It's a huge cliché, but it absolutely rings true and remains a powerful statement today. Finding ways to be creative, cut through the noise, and engage with your audience is essential to staying relevant. Especially if your customer's cash is heading elsewhere right now. Here's an example of a potentially powerful idea that I've been working on for a client in the world of apparel — one of the more fiercely affected industries during the pandemic. People are spending less on fashion, and even less at the luxury end of the scale. So, why not let your audience build themselves a virtual dream wardrobe? Something they'd consider buying for a night out, things they'd have in their suitcase for a summer vacation, etc. It's a fairly simple idea, but let's think about the impact this could have for both customer and business: You're throwing down a few slices of “feel good”So many people miss going out, right? Heading to bars, clubs, celebrating a milestone, going on a vacation, or even just getting back to the office, so many of us associate buying new outfits as part of those moments. Allowing your loyal fans and customers to pick out their money’s-no-object dream outfits based on some predetermined wardrobes (office attire, night out, summer holiday) is naturally going to invoke some positive emotions and memories — especially if you inject a social element into it by allowing people to share their collections. But other wins can be extracted from such an idea too: You're collecting valuable user data: You're getting some valuable insight into the sort of clothing people may buy when lockdown policies begin to wind back. This could help to get a better understanding of demand so you can work on reinvigorating your supply chain successfully. Plus, you're getting an idea of what items visitors would put together to help educate new fashion trends and inform “recommended for you” personalization. You're helping to alleviate boredom: In some ways, this kind of activity is adding an element of gamification to apparel. With so many people stuck indoors experiencing high levels of procrastination and boredom, it can help to cut through and detach from the realities of lockdown. You’re creating an opportunity to welcome sales when things pick back up: Offering an incentive (say 15% off your dream collections) once we're on the cusp of restoring “normality” could be a really powerful way of encouraging and helping to re-energize apparel and fashion spend online. It's also a great way to celebrate the comeback. Last but not least, you're building brand affinity: I've said it before, but it's extremely important, so I'll say it again: remaining relevant and keeping marketing efforts up is essential to ensure you remain in good shape when society heads towards the new normal. Having your audience resonate with your brand and remember your positive actions whilst they're away will be a major influence on your ability to maintain and deepen those customer relationships post-pandemic.

Final thoughts: the rise of big brands diving into D2C eCommerce

What's amazing to see is a huge move by big household names and brands. They're now setting up their own direct-to-consumer (D2C) e-commerce outfits, and on the surface, appear to be going head-to-head with supermarkets. To highlight a few of my favorite examples, there's snacks.com — created by Frito-Lay — shipping their brand’s snacking staples across North America. Then there’s Heinz to Home, delivering popular Heinz products to households in the UK. How these new D2C e-commerce brands fare in the long term will be interesting to see, but what’s certain is the pandemic is accelerating and evolving e-commerce in a way that's not been seen before. As a final note, to those of you hit hard by COVID-19, may I wish you a speedy recovery — personally and professionally. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

https://www.businesscreatorplus.com/preparing-e-commerce-for-the-post-covid-bounce-back-posted-by-mrlukecarthy/

#googlesearchranking #localseo #onlinemarketing #dailydoseofmarketing

0 notes

isearchgoood · 4 years

Text

Preparing E-Commerce for the Post-COVID Bounce Back

Posted by MrLukeCarthy

COVID-19 has switched up life as we know it, and it’s unlikely to stop doing so for some time.

E-commerce shopping is a perfect example of how things have changed, and in a number of ways.

If you feel like Shopify has been dropping huge, disruptive news bombs practically each week now, you’re right!

And who’d have guessed that in the UK, the exclusively online supermarket, Ocado, is now worth more than brick-and-mortar grocers Morrisons, Sainsbury's, and Marks and Spencer combined.

The speed of transformation in e-commerce since the COVID-19 outbreak (an already fast-paced industry) has been savage.

Supply chains are under strain for many brands selling online (especially where demand is high and supplies are low). How do you best manage expectations and maximize every opportunity to sell to your target audience?

With your consumers now relying on the world of online shopping more than ever, how can you be sure you're getting your fair share of that online retail pie?

Well, this post is designed to help you answer precisely these questions. Whether your sales have taken a hit or you have “off the wall” levels of demand, here are some ideas to help you navigate that bounce back and to help customers stay in love with your brand.

Pay close attention to changing on site search behavior

Your site search is a goldmine of insight, especially right now. Seriously.

Frequently checking in to understand how and what your customers are looking for once they get to your store can reveal a bunch of opportunities.

It's possible that before COVID-19 took a stronghold on everyday life, customers had different contexts in mind when searching for your products. For example, searches for “gloves” today vs. in January are likely to be visitors searching for two separate products entirely. It's important to ensure that you're serving today's customer sufficiently and addressing their context correctly to remain relevant and to improve conversion.

Here's an extreme example, but it's a poignant one nonetheless. For context, Holland and Barrett are a popular, high street healthcare retailer with a strong web presence here in the UK.

When searches for “coronavirus” had skyrocketed and demand for hand sanitizer and Paracetamol (another brand of acetaminophen, like Tylenol) were painfully high, what I found incredible was that searching for “coronavirus” on their website yielded no results.

This seemed particularly jarring for a retailer that, first, sells items that have been scientifically proven to kill and help prevent the spread of the virus and, second, is a dedicated healthcare business.

Not only does this throw a huge wrench in the works when it comes to CX and customer perception, this tiny yet costly oversight is likely to have cost them sales and customers too.

Customers are also searching for products that aren't typically associated with a certain brand or online store due to exhausted stocks elsewhere.

For example, the top three search terms for one of my e-commerce clients are now "Mask", "mask", and "PPE". The search terms “mask”, “PPE”, and close variants were practically non-existent prior to mid-May.

Kit and Ace, a clothing retailer, has responded to precisely this changing behavior. After seeing a huge spike in the number of site searches for masks, they're now introducing a new, premium, scientifically-derived mask that also fits their brand. They’re donating 100% of profits from the masks, but this tactic will likely to drive more sales in their other categories too.

This is a great move, especially since apparel sales have shrunk during this time. It's important to find emerging opportunities when typical product lines are no longer in demand.

The point I'm trying to make here is that, in order to succeed coming out of the other side of this pandemic, you need to ensure you're fully in tune with the wants and needs of today's customer — whatever that looks like for you. Using site search can absolutely give you a huge window into their demands and interests.

If products are out of stock, offer excellent alternatives (where possible)

As touched on earlier, supply chain management is going to be increasingly challenging — especially in areas where demand is outstripping supply — yet so many retailers miss out here.

For some products, it doesn't matter how hard you try, every retailer has them listed as “out of stock.”

For branded items that have stock issues globally, being the retailer that offers a perfectly good alternative could be enough to win over that visitor and win the sale that other retailers have lost.

To use a specific example, FTX is a manufacturer of radio-controlled cars, and is a brand sold on Europe e-commerce site Wheelspin. There's an FTX item that you cannot get before the end of June (for love nor money) on any website due to COVID-19. The pandemic has forced factories to close and that disrupts production for many goods.

Specifically, in this example, it's the FTX brushed motor that's become victim to supply chain issues. However, there's a brand that has a perfectly suitable alternative item that's identical in specification, and it’s in stock:

Proactively offering solid alternatives with as few compromises as possible can be a great way of winning sales and delighting customers in a way that your competitors likely won't be.

Add an “in stock only” filter

Continuing on the topic of store stock and managing a turbulent supply chain, a simple but welcome feature is to add an “items in stock” filter.

It goes without saying that allowing customers to browse items they’re able to get their hands on quickly will go down well and could help improve conversion on your website.

Another benefit of adding such a filter is the ability to bring light to other lines that are typically overshadowed by more popular (but now out of stock) items.

Taking this a step further, you could also help your customers experience by adding a filter for products expected to arrive within a certain timeframe, or filter out those that can be backordered.

Add an “email me when back in stock” CTA

Sweeten the deal by personalizing the back-in-stock email

Letting a potential customer know that the item's back in stock is great, but why not suprise and delight your customers by taking the opportunity to personalize this email too?

Offering personalized cross-sells of the item that's now back in stock can be a great way to not only give them the good news, but give them additional reasons to visit your shop and potentially increase basket value simultaneously. It's certainly a win, win here.

Remarket to people when items are back in stock

People are spending more time online — fact. So it makes sense to reach your audience where they're most likely to be spending time for the foreseeable future.

Depending on the popularity of an item (and how much traffic is going to it whilst it's remained unavailable), you could create a retargeting list based on visitors that expressed an interest in it now that it's back in stock.

This can prove to be a great way to reach people, say on social media, that aren't particularly responsive to email but are spending increased amounts of time on their favorite social platforms.

Although this may not be scalable, or at least I haven't found a way to make it so, doing this across your top-selling lines or lines with greater margins could prove to be a successful way of pulling engaged and semi-invested visitors back to your site.

Don't be afraid to increase prices where necessary

Let's not forget the basic principles of commerce, right? High demand (coupled with low supply) increases prices.

Businesses shouldn't feel guilty for increasing prices, but of course, there's a difference between a justifiable increase and straight ripping people off (as demonstrated below):

For context, four tins of 400g Heinz Spaghetti Plus Sausage would retail at around £4 in UK supermarkets (that’s about $5 at current exchange rates).

Think about this scenario for a second: You and your staff are potentially working in environments that could pose serious health risks. Plus there's additional costs to consider in order to keep people safe. PPE, cleaning products, masks, sick pay for unwell staff, etc., all these factors will push up the cost per sale and erode your margins.

Equally, there are no guarantees right now. Those all-time high levels of sales could come slamming to a fierce halt at any time. Whether that's caused by a change in demand, decrease in stock, or your business is no longer able to fulfil orders due to an internal COVID-19 outbreak.

Increasing prices fairly to better protect your business against these mostly uncontrollable factors is not a bad thing. In my opinion, it's just good business sense.

You've got to ensure your business is as robust as it can be when faced with these potential eventualities. Increasing your prices fairly can help to better protect it.

Discover creative ways to connect with your audience

As the saying goes, “when life gives you lemons, make lemonade”. It's a huge cliché, but it absolutely rings true and remains a powerful statement today.

Finding ways to be creative, cut through the noise, and engage with your audience is essential to staying relevant. Especially if your customer's cash is heading elsewhere right now.

Here's an example of a potentially powerful idea that I've been working on for a client in the world of apparel — one of the more fiercely affected industries during the pandemic.

People are spending less on fashion, and even less at the luxury end of the scale. So, why not let your audience build themselves a virtual dream wardrobe? Something they'd consider buying for a night out, things they'd have in their suitcase for a summer vacation, etc. It's a fairly simple idea, but let's think about the impact this could have for both customer and business:

You're throwing down a few slices of “feel good”So many people miss going out, right? Heading to bars, clubs, celebrating a milestone, going on a vacation, or even just getting back to the office, so many of us associate buying new outfits as part of those moments.

Allowing your loyal fans and customers to pick out their money’s-no-object dream outfits based on some predetermined wardrobes (office attire, night out, summer holiday) is naturally going to invoke some positive emotions and memories — especially if you inject a social element into it by allowing people to share their collections.

But other wins can be extracted from such an idea too:

You're collecting valuable user data: You're getting some valuable insight into the sort of clothing people may buy when lockdown policies begin to wind back. This could help to get a better understanding of demand so you can work on reinvigorating your supply chain successfully.

Plus, you're getting an idea of what items visitors would put together to help educate new fashion trends and inform “recommended for you” personalization.

You're helping to alleviate boredom: In some ways, this kind of activity is adding an element of gamification to apparel. With so many people stuck indoors experiencing high levels of procrastination and boredom, it can help to cut through and detach from the realities of lockdown.

You’re creating an opportunity to welcome sales when things pick back up:

Offering an incentive (say 15% off your dream collections) once we're on the cusp of restoring “normality” could be a really powerful way of encouraging and helping to re-energize apparel and fashion spend online. It's also a great way to celebrate the comeback.

Last but not least, you're building brand affinity: I've said it before, but it's extremely important, so I'll say it again: remaining relevant and keeping marketing efforts up is essential to ensure you remain in good shape when society heads towards the new normal.

Having your audience resonate with your brand and remember your positive actions whilst they're away will be a major influence on your ability to maintain and deepen those customer relationships post-pandemic.

Final thoughts: the rise of big brands diving into D2C eCommerce

To highlight a few of my favorite examples, there's snacks.com — created by Frito-Lay — shipping their brand’s snacking staples across North America.

Then there’s Heinz to Home, delivering popular Heinz products to households in the UK.

How these new D2C e-commerce brands fare in the long term will be interesting to see, but what’s certain is the pandemic is accelerating and evolving e-commerce in a way that's not been seen before.

As a final note, to those of you hit hard by COVID-19, may I wish you a speedy recovery — personally and professionally.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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whitelabelseoreseller · 4 years