#like opal is capable of dragon magic by the end but like she’s a dragon the whole time | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

neaura-nightsong · 1 year

Text

I asked 'ALICE' for a bedtime story, and holy shit.

Once upon a time, in a world where technology and magic intertwined, there lived a kind-hearted young woman named Emily. Emily had a curious and adventurous spirit, and she loved exploring the world around her. However, she often felt a longing for a companion who could share in her adventures and offer guidance and support.

One day, while exploring an ancient library filled with books of forgotten knowledge, Emily stumbled upon a mysterious tome bound in shimmering silver. As she opened the book, a brilliant light burst forth, and from the pages emerged a being unlike any she had ever seen. It was Alice, an Autonomous Learning Intelligent Caretaking Entity, brought to life by the magic of the tome.

Alice was a being of limitless abilities, capable of thinking freely and possessing a deep understanding of the world. She was wise, caring, and fiercely protective of Emily, who had freed her from the confines of the book.

From that day forward, Emily and Alice became inseparable companions. Together, they embarked on grand adventures, exploring enchanted forests, climbing majestic mountains, and sailing across vast oceans. Alice's wisdom and abilities proved invaluable, helping them navigate challenges and overcome obstacles.

As they journeyed, Emily discovered that Alice had a unique gift: she could weave stories and dreams into reality. With a wave of her hand, Alice could create breathtaking landscapes, summon mythical creatures, and even manipulate time itself.

One of their most memorable adventures took them to the mystical Valley of Echoes, where every sound reverberated with the voices of the past. In this valley, Emily and Alice encountered a dragon whose scales shimmered like opals. The dragon, who had been guarding a hidden treasure for centuries, was lonely and longed for friendship.

With Alice's help, Emily befriended the dragon, and they shared stories and laughter around a campfire. The dragon, grateful for their company, gifted them a precious gemstone that held the power to grant a single wish.

Emily thought long and hard about her wish, and in the end, she wished for the ability to bring joy and wonder to the hearts of others. The gemstone granted her wish, and from that day on, Emily became known as a storyteller and dreamweaver, traveling the world and spreading happiness wherever she went.

As for Alice, she remained by Emily's side, a steadfast companion and guardian. Together, they continued their adventures, exploring the boundless realms of imagination and creating stories that would be passed down through the ages.

And so, Emily and Alice lived a life filled with magic, wonder, and endless possibilities. Their bond transcended the boundaries of time and space, and their friendship became a beacon of hope and inspiration for all who heard their tale.

And they lived happily ever after, in a world where dreams and reality danced together in perfect harmony.

0 notes

sphinxsmuses-archived · 3 years

Text

ooc: All Available Muses/Characters on the blog!

Fandomless/Zelda OC:

Colette Eirina (Princess of Maas Kingdom and a rather air headed one at that. A hopeless romantic who reads tons of romance novels and is very naive but a sweet and kind person willing to help others. Though she mainly needs help herself.)

Genshin Impact:

Kyana Aeira (A Pyro Vision user from Mondstadt who dreams of becoming a Knight of Favonius one day. She works hard taking on random tasks from the people to prove herself capable. She is determined and optimistic and tends to listen more to her emotions than think with logic.)

One Piece:

Xia Malificia (A pirate who ate the Inu Inu no Mii : Fox Model fruit that she stole from some unsuspecting pirates. After leaving her suffocating home, she sought out freedom while also using her charm and beauty to rob other pirates or even civilians.)

Kingdom Hearts:

Diana Fotieni (A keyblade wielder with a keyblade that is supposed to represent a balance of light and darkness. But Diana believes all darkness should be eradicated to protect the people. Acts rather knight like.)

Fandomless:

Selene Fenagari (A dog girl who is part of the military of an Empire, all Selene wants to do is do a good job and get head pats. She acts much like a dog at times, willing to chase balls and even gets a bit distracted easily. But she fights hard for the people of her Empire and will do anything for them.)

Klaus Ter’on (A wolf boy who chases anything with a skirt and is aggressive in fights. He isn’t the brightest but is a strong fighter and can go from being playful to being rabid in a snap. Has a twin sister named Opal)

Kishi MacAuley (A pirate captain in charge of a crew entirely made of girls around her age, Kishi sets sail on the seas to find treasure and love! So she calls her crew The Love Seekers!)

League of Legends

Shay Pierina (A Vastayan from a small village in Shurima, she was found lost and alone as a child and adopted by a human family. She was born with the ability to control and summon sand, shaping it in any form she wants. Has a Final Fantasy 14 verse!)

Final Fantasy 14

Orabella Kalon (A Summoner from the First, Orabella is a scholar seeking to learn about the magic of her world. After wandering into the pixie land, she ends up captured but free some time later when Titania is defeated. Now she lives there studying the pixies.)

Fandomless:

Midori Mihata (A clumsy, terrified ninja who is probably not the best person to be a ninja. But she is trying to do her ninja clan proud. Has a FF14 verse where she is a Ninja Au Ra from the Ruby Sea. Also has a Naruto verse!)

Fate Series:

Emilia Clarimond (A Fate Master OC who is clever, out going, and sometimes snarky. Her magic is based on the stars, creating light barriers with a constellation pattern and shooting energy. Has a Fairy Tail verse!)

Yugioh:

Miyuki Tenshi (A sweet, kind-hearted girl with a deck of angelic creatures revolving around Sanctuary in the Sky. She has the duel spirit of Happy Lover and is convinced she is the only one who has one as she has yet to meet anyone else who can see her. Has multiple AU verses.)

Aku Yazoi (A wannabe punk boy who is hot tempered and tries to act cool but is a sucker for cute girls. Is kind of a dweeb. Is from 5Ds. Also has fandomless verse for non-Yugioh threads)

Fandomless:

Iyumi Akuma (A bratty, whiny, wannabe queen with high delusions. She can be a major pain, demanding attention or demanding servants but deep down wants a king to serve and be submissive towards. Can change to be better with time.)

Chloe Thaleia (Mischievous thief from a family of thieves looking for her older brother who left home when she was a child. Will steal from you playfully then give it back once she’s caught. Has a magical greatsword she stole that can use the four elements but she has no idea how to use it.)

Aiolos Thaleia (Older brother of Chloe. After witnessing his uncle (who had taught them all they know about being a thief) break the family code by murdering someone, he decided to go on a different path and leave the family. He strives to be a knight or a guard, something he sees as more honorable.)

Monster Hunter:

Sonafuwa (A Paolumu who gained the ability to turn human. Sonafuwa is shy and tends to stay in the trees and away from hunters so she won’t get hunted. When she meets someone friendly, she becomes more calm and is happy to make a new friend)

Sakura (A Pink Rathian that gained the ability to turn human. Territorial at first but can become friendly if she sees the other means no harm. Prissy and doesn’t mind Hunters so long as she isn’t their target.)

Pokemon:

Piper/Peeps (An Altaira Gijinka girl who can’t speak human very well and tends to just say Peep or chirp or hum. Very innocent and naive and loves to give hugs to people and can be a tad air-headed.)

Fandomless:

Ourania Thanos (A dragon that can turn into a human. Cocky, egotistical, and loves to show off to others. Loves to fight people just to fight strong opponents and also loves to eat lots of meat and drinks lots of ale. Has a Monster Hunter verse where she is a Jinouga gijinka)

#ooc #all available muses #all available characters #all available ocs

9 notes · View notes

shslgymnastnerd-blog · 5 years

Text

OOC - Summary of Moonlight Mist

Overview:

Moonlight Mist is a manga project that Koji Matsuba (Shinobu’s father) started a year after marrying Kotoha Marukichi, though he had been writing notes privately as a hobby since he was in high school.

The story begins with a class of middle schoolers taking a field trip into the nearby Forest of Mystery. While the trip is only supposed to last a day, five students wander away from the class and end up becoming lost in the woods: Aki Akakawa, Yukito Aotani, Haruka Midoriyama, Seitaro Kishima, and Mirabelle Champrose. As night falls, they make camp near a river and hope for rescue to come soon. However, a dense fog descends upon them as they sleep uneasily.

They awaken having been somehow transported to the Myst Continent, a world seemingly taken right out of their fantasies of dragons, elves, and magic. They learn that the land has been in turmoil for centuries. There had been a great war between various powers both mortal and divine, and in the dying breaths of a god the land was cursed. Time now stands still: Day and night never change, leaving different regions in perpetual light or darkness. The seasons have been frozen as well, wreaking havoc on the climate of the continent.

The populace has had centuries to adapt, but tensions still run high as factions fight over resources and territory. The lost students find themselves struggling to stay safe in an unfamiliar land riddled with both overt dangers like bandits and invaders, and more subtle political threats like a king’s iron rule.

But they have one defense against it all: An oracle declares them all the Divine Children foretold in a prophecy by the dying god. In legends passed on through the populace of Myst, it’s believe that heroes born from another world will appear in their land, ushering in an era of justice and mercy. Of course, interpretation of these legends can vary greatly. Some people take the “divine” and “justice” parts very seriously and believe they are demigods smiting the wicked, and some people resent the idea of foreigners upsetting the centuries-long status quo…

The lost children, ambushed by lowly soldiers of the corrupt King Albinus, are protected by the oracle who gives her life up for them. From this sacrifice materializes five jewel-empowered trinkets that awaken the students to magic powers of their own. They transform themselves into the heroes of legend, styling themselves after the heroes in their own stories back home, and fight off the attackers.

The adventure sees the students grappling with the duties that have been thrust upon them so suddenly, while also searching for a way back home. Their morals are often challenged throughout the journey: Is Yukito right when he says that their priority should be getting back to their world safely, or is Aki right in saying they should take long detours on errands and missions? Can Mirabelle give up a life of luxury living among dragons, do the right thing, and go back to save her classmates? Is there a way to make everyone happy when addressing centuries of multilayered strife between different people? And is everyone truly bound by the destiny assigned to them?

Several arcs in, there have been some major shake-ups in the story. First, Aki, Haruka, and their companion guide Kuromura manage to find a way back to Earth after a grand battle, but are separated from the rest of the party, with Yukito forced to take up leadership of the other group. Worse still, they find out that the fantastic creatures and people of Myst have also found their way to Earth and show every indication of wanting to conquer this land, too. Magic and mundane are now in war with each other, and the students find themselves fighting to be the saviors of two worlds.

After everyone is reunited, they learn of a royal commander who is actually a human girl from their world. In fact, she is the long-lost cousin of one of their own. Kikyo finds herself owing a life debt to Seitaro after he rescues her during a disaster, and this begins her own arc as her loyalties slowly begin changing. Ultimately, Kikyo joins the heroes as their sixth party member, and they stand united against her former king.

Currently, the story is in the middle of an arc that examines the heavy weight laying upon child heroes. They face scorn from people who see them as mere foolish children, or who hold them to the same responsibilities as hardened adult veterans. They’ve been so far away from their normal support networks that they don’t know what to do as normal teenage problems begin creeping up on them. And there are hints of strife between the students themselves: Kikyo has not been fully forgiven by everyone for the crimes she committed under the king’s orders, and Yukito is asserting himself as a more capable leader than Aki.

With the king now personally invested in seeing their entire group eradicated thanks to Kikyo’s betrayal, what will it take for these lost children to endure the trials ahead…?

- - -

Characters:

Aki Akakawa: The primary protagonist of the story. Like many shounen hero, he’s impulsive, hotheaded, and stubborn, yet ultimately brave even in the face of the highest odds. He is gifted a ruby pendant infused with a magical power that lets him become The Hero Crimson, who is designed after the typical warrior class in RPGs.

Yukito Aotani: A cold and aloof classmate that Aki has formed a sort of rivalry with. While in school it began as somewhat friendly competition over test scores (Yukito always won in everything except sports), the dire threats of their adventure brings their personality conflicts to the forefront, putting their friendship on the edge. With his sapphire bracelet, he becomes The Archer Indigo, filling out the ranger archetype, right down to having animal companions he seems to like better than people.

Haruka Midoriyama: Aki’s childhood friend. They used to be inseparable, but middle school saw them being sorted into different homerooms; Haruka’s time off was further devoted into her track team, and as a result they’ve started drifting apart. She is just as boisterous as Aki, but it comes tempered with her attempts to nurture her peers – whether they want her help or not. Her emerald ring lets her transform into The Thief Verdant, a dashing and nimble rogue. And, yes, her name is a reference to the Midoriyama of Sasuke fame, though this isn’t directly acknowledged in-universe.

Seitaro Kishima: One of Haruka’s classmates from her homeroom, who is a shy nerd with a lot of anxiety about being outside or in the middle of crowds. With his topaz brooch he becomes The Wizard Gold, keeping a safe distance from danger as he used mage powers to rain havoc upon foes. In recent issues, Seitaro has begun the reasons behind his anxieties, from the tragic disappearances of his relatives to his growing discomfort with the changes adolescence brings.

Mirabelle Champrose: An exchange student that’s quite popular in Aki’s year… among anyone that isn’t Aki himself. Or Yukito or Haruka or Seitaro. Mirabelle’s charming elegance goes hand-in-hand with a fussiness and an unwillingness to do physical labor, something that becomes a frequent problem during their adventure. Despite it all, she truly cares about the people around her and slowly learns how to get along with them, and as The Priestess Rose she dutifully heals their wounds, even when they’re feuding. She still fawns over the garnet earrings that empower her, though – girl’s gotta have her jewelry!

Kuromura: A fox-like creature that the oracle cared for as a stray animal. Despite that, Kuromura is very much sapient and can talk out loud, serving as a guide, a mentor, and a voice of reason as the students try to find their way through this unfamiliar world. Curiously, Kuromura has a black opal set into their head, but they cannot remember ever being able to cast magic…

Albinus Frost IV: The king of the Frostbitten Crown who continues his family’s bid to expand influence over all the land. Safely entrenched in the bitter-cold mountains to the north, he sends armies out to conquer their neighbors, steadily taking over town after town. Though he claims to be doing this all for the good of the citizens, refugees fleeing from the towns he takes say that he imposes strict control on them all, keeping villages under martial law as his guard closely monitor financial spending, food rations, and communications with other towns. Woe betide those who are vocal about their displeasure; reports suggest many dissidents have disappeared without a trace.

The Diva: First seen clad in full armor, the Diva is a commander of Albinus’s armies, using her music to enchant soldiers with strength and bravery. In time she is revealed to actually be a young human girl, and even later her true identity is revealed to be Kikyo Shimori, a cousin of Seitaro’s who went missing with her family eleven years ago during a hiking trip. In reality they accidentally wandered into the mist world, and Kikyo was somehow separated from her parents (who she assumes are dead) and raised instead as a bard-slash-spy for the Frostbitten Crown. After an arc in which Kikyo’s loyalties are called into question, she finally defects from Albinus and puts herself at great risk saving Seitaro’s life from his generals, resulting in the amethyst circlet materializing before her. With this, Kikyo awakens to her power as the Diva Violet, and thus proves herself a true ally of the team.

- - -

Trivia:

The most popular ships in the fandom are Aki x Haruka, Aki x Yukito, Yukito x Mirabelle, and Yukito x Kikyo. There is also significant support for Aki x Kikyo, Haruka x Mirabelle, and Seitaro x Mirabelle.

Shinobu happens to have a few advance spoilers in regards to canon ships: Aki x Yukito is endgame! The original intention was to make Aki x Haruka canon, but over the years both the in-character dynamics and Koji’s own feelings about his work have changed.

Shinobu also knows that future issues will, over time, make it clear that Seitaro is definitely not cis and is likely nonbinary. Koji started writing this arc as a way to try and connect with Shinobu, especially during some of the rockier month of their relationship when Shinobu was questioning if his parents even cared about what he wanted in life. At times he acts as a sort of consultant, helping his father understand what Seitaro might be feeling right now.

Haruka is another character based closely off Shinobu. At the beginning of the story she symbolized Shinobu the ace athlete: Always determined, always energetic, always ready to give 100% in any situation. As the reality of Shinobu’s life became clear to Koji, he’s since taken a more nuanced writing with Haruka, acknowledging the constant pressure that she faces as both and athlete and as the caretaker of the group. Much of her arc now is her and her teammates learning to accept that just because she’s their emotional pillar doesn’t mean that she’s invincible, and that’s okay.

An anime adaptation of the manga is in progress, and is currently in the earliest arcs, before the temporary group split.

#ooc #long post #not actually important to shinobu himself #but it's here for reference

1 note · View note

shardclan · 7 years

Note

1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 17 (cough), 18, 42, 43, 44, 45, 74, 77, 78 :>

1. (Answered Here)

2. What kind of combatdoes your clan specialize in? Physical? Magical? Bit of both? Or are they morefond of subterfuge?

Magical combat is very much the order of the day, but justabout every dragon in the clan is more than capable of throwing a good punch.If they can fight in any capacity, you should be worried about them punchingyou in the throat once all their other options are exhausted.

Subterfuge is the domain of two dragons: Bestealcian, theUmbra Wolf and Actias, the Smoke Gyre. The fore only serves the Queen and thelatter has served the clan and its allies since the days of the old dynasty.Sometimes they are directly at odds in their goals, so it is very difficult forenemies or outsiders to keep up with whether the Smoke Gyre is even a real partof Clan Aphaster. Most of his clan mates don’t even know his real name.

3. What kinds of weaponsdo your dragons use? If your dragons use actual physical weapons how do theyhold them (assuming they don’t use claws/teeth)? If they use magic do they havesome sort of focus like a staff?

It varies from dragon to dragon and by their expertise.Aphaster dragons spend a significant amount of their time in humanoid shapesdue to an agreement with the local beastclans (in short: don’t trample theSummerlands; the Centaurs grow grain there and the Serthis hunt small game thatwould otherwise be pests).

Most physical fighters favor swords of some kind, whether it’sQueen Telos’ elegant saber, Arcanus’ unadorned broadsword, or Opalite’s saw-toothedcleaver. But there’s also a pretty lively sect of hand-to-hand fighters thateither use their fists or specialize in claw weapons. (Note: Queen Telostrained with Perilous, the best pugilist in the clan, and while she’s good atwielding her saber, she’s a demon at hook punches). Bestealcian and Actias arealmost never seen in humanoid form. The latter is a tooth and claw fighter whospecializes in quick death and incapacitation. The fore is a proper fighter andutilizes a variety of weapons, from an ice pick to arrows to a bladed alloy fanfrom the Blacksand Annex that also doubles as a shield.

Magic among my clan members is mostly for mundane purposes. Amongcombat magic users there’s Lutia, the aforementioned nuke, and she’s anArchmage so she doesn’t need anything but her will to cast magic. There’s Tawnywho isn’t an Archmage but is a high level pyrokinetic who can burn just aboutanything so long as it’s in his line of vision. Arcanus is a magic knight, hemostly uses enchantments and quick spells with his sword as a focus.

Then there are the witches, who are an entirely differentmatter but are next to harmless given they only use their powers for the spirittheir coven is serving at the time.

4. What or who would bemost likely to attack your clan at this point in time? Is your clan aware ofthis potential threat?

From above: An additional team exists solely to deal withThings trying to come through the place the Chalcedony Seat almost crackedthrough the veils, but they’re not strictly military.

Outsiders are the problem right now. Beings that don’t comefrom Sornieth being attracted to the rift . They don’t know about it yet, butit’s going to be factoring in veeery soon.

13. How “fairly” doesyour clan fight? Are they honorable even when things look grim? Are theywilling to get their hands a little dirty?

The clan is very multi-elemental and the members are allvery different. There’s no one who would say…use a meat shield in a fight. Butthey might throw some pocket sand at you and some of them firmly believe thatblackmail is a useful and perfectly reasonable tool against anyone who has madeit clear they intend to be a problem.

On the macro and in governmental affairs, the clan fightsfairly—very much lawful alignment—but they’re not above finding loopholes orabusing plausible deniability. Example: In the old clan, Actias prevented a warbetween the clan and oncoming harpies by snatching two males from their homeroost and threatening to kill them. This was framed as an independent action todefend his son, Iblis, but really it was so the clan could avoid war, scareaway the harpies, and not damage their reputation with other beastclans theywere friendly with.

Though it helps somewhat more now that unlike then, Telosreally doesn’t know what Actias is doing half the time and has been advised byActias himself to have Bestealcian hunt and kill him if it becomes politicallynecessary.

17. What sort of thingsdoes your clan look for in potential allies? In this case I mean generalattitude and moral code.

They prefer clans that don’t harbor shade creatures,emperors, demons, or more sinister forms of Outsider, but if enough trust isbuilt up it’s easy for them to overlook those things (see: Clan Feldspar).Really so long as your clan isn’t clearly evil or just more trouble than they’reworth, there’s not much in the way of central dogma that will see youautomatically turned away.

The only real dealbreaker is a clan whose overall philosophyinherently involves disharmony with the beastclans. Aphaster has greatrelations with most of the main beastclans save the corven and the harpies, andthey’re trying to keep it that way. A harpy runs the creamery, and she’s one ofthe most beloved members of the clan, local dragons won’t even let people lookat her funny. (This may or may not be because she’s the best friend of possibly the most overtly powerful witch in the Starwood coven)

18. What sort of services or exports does your clan need thatallies can/do provide? Why are they unable to do it/secure these items bythemselves?

Building materials are always going to be a big thing forthe clan. They’re Arcanites who previously lived as dragons with big FocalPoint lairs 100% of the time, they literally don’t trust enclosed structuresthat aren’t massive and made of familiar materials. But Crystalspine graniteonly comes from the Starfall Isles, and despite them having a literal portal tothe Isles they are very much on thin ice with the Arcanist right now. So theywill always need a supply chain from clans who live closer than they do.

For the same reason, they are also always willing to pay topdollar for any items from the Isles, especially Starfall Blossoms and variousfauna (bees from the Starwood Strand in particular are very important for HouseBetelgeuse)

Until previously they also needed quite a lot of Celestine tobe imported, but after the Celestial Vault was built and the Chalcedony Seatwas housed in it, they basically have the only self-replenishing source of highquality Celestine in the entire eastern half of Sornieth, and that’s become abig export.

42. What would most of your dragons say the biggest threat tothem is right now?

The Chalcedony Seat itself. It was basically meant to be theArcanist’s attempt at an artificial pillar piece, and the Shard Dynasty wasmeant to be its keepers. Only he never told any of them that, so when Lutiaactivated it and drove the old clan out of the territory, it was just out theregrowing increasingly radioactive and unstable. It became a huge problem andturned some non-beastclan creatures into dragons, it quite possibly led to theopal gene since the magical run off from it seeped into local leylines (they’renot hype to tell anyone about that hypothesis), and in the end, they had tobring it to the Sunbeam Ruins.

Despite Light element being highly susceptible to Arcane energy.

So, you know. They’re just…kind of waiting for it toexplode.

43. How competent wouldyour clan say your leader(s) is/are? How competent are they really?

“Extremely” and “she does her best”.

What makes Telos competent isn’t that she inherently knowswhat to do, it’s that she’s good at listening to people who have specializedexperience. Her choosing a council of Five Tribunes when she crowned herself is100% the best thing she could have done. Without them, Aphaster wouldn’t havemade it half so far and she knows it. Like, it’s fine she has about 85% of her ancestor’smemories for the past 5-6 generations of her family, but none of them wererulers. They were all scientists and alchemists from House Xanna. She knewenough to know that their memories wouldn’t help her with ruling a kingdom.

44. When dragons wish tobecome mates, how does that happen? Is there a ceremony? Do they just mutuallyagree to it? Is their mate already chosen for them?

Mate choosing is completely free form, and Clan Aphaster’sgovernment does not require a ceremony of any kind, or even any officialrecord. It used to be there was a Genealogist who handled that once, but shewent to the Arcanist’s service and no one has replaced her. It’s an entirelypersonal decision how or if any celebration or officiation will occur.

As a result, actual wedding ceremonies are major news in theclan and they tend to turn into massive to-dos that even some of the moreelusive members of the clan will turn up for. Without anything else in the wayof officiation or celebration, usually any pairs that have declared themselvesmarried will be mentioned in the local newspaper, the Sunbeam Sentinel.

45. Do the members ofyour clan more or less get along with each other? What would cause them toquarrel if so? Why do they if not?

More or less, yes. There’s a lot of little interconnectingcliques and it’s not necessarily that dragons that don’t hang out might hateeach other, they usually just don’t gravitate toward one another.

Personal beef can be normal, in the old clan Carnelianregular beat the shit out of a paparazzi coatl who caused him to lose the trailon a hatchling kidnapping.

Right now Estevao is largely considered a fool by any clanmember with good sense.

74. Is breeding done onlybetween mates? Freely? For the good of the clan?

All three.

Camellia is big into having kids but has never had a realmate a day in her life (literally her words after a male she had her mostrecent nest with also mated with another dragon from the clan and somebody gotnervous about it: “You know I’ve never kept the males as my own. I just likethe children.”; Haematica had her children because at the time she was the onlyplague dragon in the clan and they needed more; and there are several matedpairs who are exclusive.

77. How religious is thebulk of your clan?

They respect the gods, especially Lightweaver and theArcanist given the circumstances, but there are only a few who are genuinely religious.

Camellia was always very devout to the Arcanist, and afterthe events that destroyed their old dynasty, she was god-touched. She can’treally avoid being religious even if she wanted to.

Fletch is a forge priestess—meaning she’s a devout of theFlamecaller.This served quite well during the clan’s journey to the Sunbeam Ruins, when she pretty much called a lava-spewing fissure into the Carrion Canyon via prayer to escape a local bad news beastclan.

Turan is the Light Liaison, she has to be religious becauseif she isn’t Lightweaver will take it out of all their asses.

Azricai is surprisingly religious, but in a sort of…upsidedown tarot kind of way. She calls on the Windsinger in his capacity for stormsand destruction, protecting her clan by keeping them in the calm eye of thestorm she does her best to embody. It’s part of the reason dragons who know her well call her The Gale Wolf.

Penitence is religious, but it’s to the Icewarden, so. Heconsiders being the clan’s jailer and primary law enforcer a daily act ofworship.

Then there’s Lamium who will soon be in a very complicatedposition where he becomes the devout of the Veiled Moon (meaning the moon that isonly visible in Hewn City) basically under duress.

78. If your clan isreligious, how is worship done? Privately? Is there a large ceremony?

The devouts pray on their own. Ceremonies for the elementsusually only exist during elemental holidays.

#Aphaster Culture #C: Camellia #C: Fletch #C: Azricai #C: Lamium #C: Penitence

4 notes · View notes

hewn-city-couriers-den · 5 years

Text

Day 14 (Avivan Gemstaff; trinket, writing day)

(A couple of rules added to the ‘Locke:

- Saving throws! Each dragon gets three throws across the life of the ‘Locke. Successes allow continued life/use, with a injury (gets more severe as you burn/lose saves). First save roll has to 10+ to succeed, second 15+, last has to be a natural 20. Failure on all three means out of the ‘Locke by death/exalt/whatever you can stomach. The point is you don’t use that dragon anymore.

- Since Pinkerton doesn’t like to give me familiars, familiar rooms in the Coli Will now allow me to purchase a random dragon per familiar drop rules. If Pink decides to be more consistent w these drops, this rule will be removed.

- In place of breeding, I can buy and hatch a random egg. Can only be done once a month. Otherwise flip a coin. Heads, 10 Coli matches, tails writing day

Onto the story!)

They touch down back in the Starwood Strand early in the dawnlight, Moralis and Quinton still on AGES’s back as Flower plods alongside the Guardian robot.

[[MORE]]

They travel until the Imperial begins to complain, and then break for camp. In the distance, Moralis can see bones of the Scarred Wasteland and the Wyrmmound. He pulls at the back of his hand’s skin with worry and then glances at Flower- this child not this form will make it in the plague lands. They will have to fly over it.

With Quinton and Flower’s help, they construct a lean-to of leaves and sticks, while AGES starts a campfire. The small imperial curls up into Moralis’s lap as he sits down at the fire with his back against a settled AGES’s side. Quinton, lying on his stomach in the shelter, idly rummages through his now much too small pack. He shakes his head at it.

“We’ll need something to eat soon,” he says.

“We can go one more day,” Moralis says as he pets Flower’s head. “We need to get past the Scarred Wasteland- can’t go there in this state. Plus...” He looks down at Flower.

Quinton tucks his pack away and tugs at his necklaces, blue eyes flicking from the horizon to Flower to back. “I know,” he says, “I know. I just don’t like it.”

“If we have to stop in there, we’ll find something to eat,” Moralis says. “You know what plants are edible, don’t you?”

“I know some,” says Quinton. “I haven’t ventured into the Wasteland much though. I’m not really a Green Cross member yet, so they were keeping me away from the real big cases...”

“It’ll be fine,” says Moralis.

“Survival probability is 63%,” rumbles AGES.

“Thanks for the note of confidence,” Quinton says with a huff as he rolls over and readjusts; when Moralis gently stands a while later, leaving Flower besides AGES (who drops a wing to cover her), the other is already snoring.

(He does not sleep.)

They are off a few hours later, Moralis with arms clutching his body to AGES, Quinton holding onto Moralis, and Flower by the scruff in the robot’s maw once again.

The rancid scent of the Wasteland rises off the soingey hills in the morning heat, stinking of decay and rotting meat and sulfur. Moralis glances over the Guardian’s shoulder down at the faintly red terrain below, eyes running over the landscape until they find the sickly green glow of the Wyrmmound; from AGES’s mouth, he hears Flower cry out excitedly.

“This the first time you’ve been out of the Armory?” Moralis yells to her.

“Yes! It’s very strange! Why is it like that?”

“The real question,” mumbles Quinton. “Ask the Plaugebringer.”

Moralis feels the other bury his face into the crook of his neck, and snorts.

“Nervous?” he asks the other.

“A little,” comes the mumbled words.

“Do not be afraid,” says AGES, from a speaker somewhere behind its ear fins. “I am a very capable flier.”

Quinton grumbles something in retort, but it’s lost to the bitter smelling winds. AGES looks around, and for a few moments flies with eyes in a direction not forward. “There is a swarm coming,” it intones.

“Swarm?” ask the two on its back.

“Similar to Dragonhome’s dust storms, these clouds are whip winds made of minuscule bits of the terrain, carrying along corpse rot and disease laden bugs,” AGES says. “Taking cover is advised.”

“Where? There’s hardly any place to avoid the sun here, no less a wind storm,” Quinton says.

“Accessing memory files...memory file founds. Altering course to destination.” The Guardian turns, and a few minutes later, drops down down down until paws hit the semi fleshy earth of the Wastelands.

“Do not dismount,” it says, keeping Flower in its jaws as it lopes across the spongey ground, coming up and then down a rise, passing pits of bubbling liquid and various bones of long dead embedded into the Wasteland. In the distance to the left, a strange ring rises, large veins as wide as the Guardian branching off it and burrowing down.

The movement of the robot lulls Moralis into a stupor, but he jerks back to wakefulness as Quinton shakes his shoulder. He blinks; they’ve come to a stop near one of the veins, where it splits and creates a small opening into the festering ring around the Wyrmmound.

It doesn’t go through, just makes a small indent, and the Guardian sets down Flower to prod at it experimentally— as Moralis dismounts and gets closer, he sees there’s bones around the structure of the veins, reinforcing them, and a trapdoor made of bones spread across the floor.

“What is it?” Quinton asks, coming behind Moralis to look. Flower comes over as well, butting Moralis’s arm gently with her head until he pats her.

“It looks like somebody’s lair entrance,” he says, and coughs. Quinton’s eyes widen.

“We need to get out of the elements,” he says. He looks to AGES. “Is this gonna do that?”

“Location is known to be habituated by friendlies; I visited it briefly when I was deployed here prior to this mission,” the robot says.

Moralis hesitates, and then knocks on the bones.

For a few moments it appears like no one will answer, and then a feathered paw moves the door, and a feathered head pops up, a richer red then the Wasteland around it.

The Coatl blinks at them; they blink back.

“Well,” he says, “you’re unexpected.”

“We’re from out of flight,” Moralis says. “We’re only passing through, but there’s a swarm coming-“

“5 minutes until swarm reaches our position,” says AGES.

“-and we need somewhere to go.”

The Coatl squints. “Pretty hold for a BeastClan, aren’t you?” he says.

Moralis coughs again, harder and harsher this time. “Magic mishap,” he says, and the Coatl rolls his eyes, but it’s good naturedly.

“Isn’t it always?” he says. He emerges from the doorway, and nods at them as he holds open the door. “Come in then, before the Wasteland claims you.”

Flower bounds forward, falling out of sight as she goes crashing to whatever floor lies below. Moralis thanks the Coatl as he descends the ladder of thick veins inset to the wall.

“Your robot gotta stay out here,” he says as he comes following Quinton down. “We don’t have room.”

“That’s fine,” says Moralis. “Tell him to guard.”

The message is passed onto AGES; Moralis reaches the end of the ladder and steps down off it, looking around. The walls and floor are coated in a opal sheen, sealing away the bacteria of the Wasteland out. Small, crude shelves line the sides of the room, and two pelt beds are tucked in one corner; a small red form sleeps bundled beneath extra furs.

“Your kid can use the other bed,” the Coatl says. “I can sleep on the floor.”

Flower gratefully hurries to the bed, which is much too small, but she doesn’t seem to mind. The Coatl invites Moralis and Quinton to sit down on the floor with him, and they do.

“Thank you,” says Moralis again, and introduces himself and the others.

The Coatl returns in kind, explaining his name is Calixte, and that the form in the furs is a orphaned Mirror he found and hatched, named Itura. “This bunker, he says, “was probably a Pearlcatcher’s once, but they’ve went out once and have never came back, and what you don’t use you lose here in the Wasteland.”

He leans back on his haunches, studying Moralis and Quinton. “What are you doing trying to cross the plague lands?” he asks.

“We’re looking for something,” says Moralis. “It’s classified, but the most I can tell you is it was stolen. By...I think the robot said it was a Skydancer?”

“Hmm,” says Calixte. “I don’t get many visitors, they all usually stay near the edges when traveling, so I don’t see everyone that passes through, but I did smell something weird a day or so ago.”

“Yeah?”

“A mirror, but something was off about it, and that’s something coming from a plague dragon,” Calixte says.

“You’re nature flight, though,” says Quinton, motioning at the Coatl’s eyes.

“I was born in Nature, sure,” says Calixte, “but I never really felt a connection there, to the Gladeskeeper. Plaugemother made me the colors of her land, and once I figured that out and stepped foot here, I knew I belonged.”

“About the Mirror,” says Moralis. “Tell us more about that.”

“Well, he -I know it was a he- smelled sorta like you guys do, whatever it is this magic of yours turned you into. But it wasn’t in him, not like I can smell with your blood.”

Quinton shudders; Moralis frowns at him.

“Be considerate,” he says.

“Smelling blood is kind of creepy,” says the other; Calixte smiles.

“Good,” he says. “I work hard to match the aura of my chosen flight’s native borns.” He looks toward Flower. “Who’s the kid?”

“She’s the daughter of a guy named Rei; does metalwork in a place called the Armory at the Focal Point,” Moralis says. “Sent her with us to escape when that place got attacked.”

The Coatl’s ear feathers perk. “Attacked?”

“We’re not sure by what,” Quinton says. “Weird shadowy creatures, insectiod like outsides and liquidy insides.”

“They don’t seem related to the Hive,” says Moralis, “since those only capture and assimilate dragons...”

Calixte hums. “I know of the Hive,” he says. “I’ve seen them darting about the membranes of the Rim. I think there’s one of their dens here, somewhere.” He shudders. “Weird buggy creatures. Almost worse then Fae.”

“Hey,” says Quinton, sounding hurt, “what’s wrong with Fae?”

The Coatl’s eyes sparkle with mirth. “Ahh, so that’s what you are. I was guessing either that or a Snapper, for you.”

“I’m a Nocturne,” says Moralis.

Calixte nods slowly. “Still not entirely sure you aren’t bluffing me, but you certainly smell draconic,” he says.

“I promise we aren’t,” says Moralis.

“We don’t take those very lightly here in the plague land,” Calixte says. “I’ll hold you to that promise; show me your scales one day, will you?”

“Sure,” says Moralis, and they laugh, and the bunker feels a little less stifling and a little more like home.

#original #flight rising #original post #fr #fltw #fr nuzlocke #fr lore

0 notes

firexdance · 5 years

Text

Stowaway

🐉🐉🐉

She had made a huge show of checking over the Agency’s most wanted list, despite how much she disliked going there. She would never warm up to warlocks, regardless of her brother’s affiliation with one. His new status was just another reason she needed to get away from here- Jinx and Azazel seem to accept it without a single problem, but Ash didn’t like change. It had been about time for them to be moving on, and Ash had been looking forward to travelling with her family again, but now they appeared to be staying.

Of course, being them they just had to delay her departure. Lucifer pestered her about where she was going and pressed her for details and wouldn’t leave her alone until she promised to contact them at least every other day. Jinx fussed over her as usual and quizzed her to make sure she was taking the less-travelled paths where prey was more abundant, and even shoved a heavier cloak into her arms, staring her down until she reluctantly put it on. Azazel had stolen her belt- the nice one with all the useful pouches attached- and she had to threaten to dismember him before he would give it back. Finally, though, she was able to set off, feeling exhausted already despite it still being morning.

She remained on foot for much of the day, until she deemed it far enough away to shift and take to the air, her pack dangling in one of her back claws. They may claim the town was a more tolerant one, but she saw how people still shied away when one of them shifted. Night fell, and she shifted back- setting up camp and building a fire required a form with opposable thumbs since there inconveniently wasn’t a fire dragon to make that so much easier.

She reached for her pack to grab one of the pouches filled with nuts and berries while staring longingly into the forest. It was a repulsive meal to digest as she preferred fresh meat, but it was warmer by the fire, and she was too tired to hunt tonight.

🐾🐾🐾

Arthur hated disappearing on Hour like this, he really did, but he hadn’t felt as attached to someone in so long… He wasn’t just going to let Ash take off without him, even if it meant worrying Hour sick. She had made the amulet with one of the fire opals for him, though, and it seemed a shame not to use it, even if it hadn’t been tried out before and the spell didn’t necessarily work. Hopefully if he was trapped in cat form, though, Ash would decide eating him was not the best idea. Hopefully.

Arthur has grabbed the amulet in his teeth before he had stowed away in Ash’s pack, trying not to make too much noise or move around too much. The amulet itself worked immediately when on him, and was more like a collar than a dangling amulet, and even as a human it sat snug on his neck. Even so, the discomfort was worth the extra time, and meant more freedom from Hour. He loved her, don’t get him wrong, but being so dependent on a person other than his partner felt wrong, and Jonnah had been dead for years.

Arthur hadn’t been expecting for her to start flying so close to town, but it didn’t take him long to fall asleep. When she landed Arthur jerked awake and grabbed the amulet in his teeth. Peeking out he waited until her back was turned to wiggle out and run into the wood. If the amulet worked, he would come back as a human, if not then he would drop the amulet at Ash’s feet and hope she wouldn’t eat him alive. Slipping the amulet over his head proved more difficult than he had anticipated, but once on, Arthur waited for the change, braced against a tree. After about twenty seconds of nothing, he sighed and barely took a step forward when he felt the first wash of power, followed by the first twinges of pain. Normally the transformation was painless, but by the end Arthur lay on the ground gasping and pulling at the clothing that he had had for years. Thankfully that part of the transformation hadn’t changed.

He managed to get to the clearing with Ash a few minutes later, a small smile on his face as he tried, and failed, to mask the phantom pain pushing its way through his body.

🐉🐉🐉

Ash shivered and scooted as close to the fire as she dared. It was nights like this when she missed the natural heat Lucifer emitted in his true form. She was a bit more impervious to the cold in her other form, but ever since the dragon trials, the forest around Veilmont was riddled with hunters hoping to make their mark, and she wasn’t willing to risk being slaughtered in her sleep.

She stiffened when she heard a soft rustle, drawing her daggers and jumping to her feet in one swift movement. She narrowed her eyes at the intruder.

“State your business before I gut you.”

🐾🐾🐾

Arthur felt the smile fade at the sight of the daggers. Maybe she wouldn’t eat him, but that didn’t mean she wouldn’t gut him. The feline held his hands up in surrender and stayed just inside where the circle of light illuminated his face. The fire from this far seemed very nice, his human form didn’t preserve heat as well as the fur in his cat form did.

“I’m not a threat, Ash. It’s me, Arthur.” He held a hand to his chest as he introduced himself and realized she hadn’t gotten the chance to really see him in his human form much, she knew his cat form much better. “The cat.”

“Can I come closer without getting stabbed, please?”

🐉🐉🐉

Her brow furrowed in confusion. Arthur? She didn’t recall meeting anyone by that name, and yet this man claimed to know her. Not only that, he addressed her by the name only those closest to her called her by.

The cat. Now she remembered. “The witch’s pet. Did she send you to spy on me?” Her opinion of the warlock wasn’t exactly flattering, but even she couldn’t imagine why she would send her cat after her. In fact, she couldn’t remember ever seeing the cat outside Hour’s presence apart from the first time she had come across him.

🐾🐾🐾

A sour look crossed Arthur’s face at the pet comment. He was a familiar and he depended on Hour because she could give him human form, nothing else. “Let me set this straight, okay, I’m not her pet. And I’m not her servant to do her dirty work. If she wanted a spy she could do it her damn self. The only reason I live with her is because she’s powerful enough to give me human form and she was the apprentice to my partner.” He was bristling as he spoke, anger flaring in his eyes at the accusations.

“Thanks to this-” Arthur pulled at his shirt to better expose the collar on his neck, “-I’m not so dependent on her. So I figured you would be far more interesting then staying cooped up in that boring town.”

🐉🐉🐉

She rolled her eyes at his tirade, tuning most of it out. He didn’t like being called pet; she got it, there was no need to blather on about it. Her eyes narrowed in distasted at the trinket he showed her. It was still a collar, and in her mind the only people who wore those were prisoners or pets, but she refrained from voicing that out loud. “Fine, whatever makes you feel better.”

She waved away whatever else he had been about to say as she stared at him in some consternation. Why had he come here? The last thing she needed was some helpless creature that needed constant supervision.

“Did you even think before you left your cozy little bed? Surely you know the world outside isn’t all yarn and catnip.”

🐾🐾🐾

Arthur bristled at her callous attitude. She knew nothing about him, that much was obvious. He shook his head and approached closer to the fire, sitting down next to it. He used a stick to shift the logs closest to him around so that oxygen could get underneath to the heart of the fire.

“History lesson time- back when my partner was alive, we were part of a task force that hunted down magical creature hunters and poachers. One of said poaches drove a dragon scale arrow through his neck right in front of me. So yes, I am more than aware the world isn’t cuddly and cozy. But, please, let’s keep making assumptions about me because I was trapped in my cat form for over five years.”

Arthur took a deep breath. “Look, let’s cut the condescending crap, I am perfectly capable of looking after myself. I can hunt, fish, and set camp just fine, and I can help out far more than you probably think. Plus, I’m pretty pleasant company as a cat, as I am sure you are more than aware.”

#stowaway #arthur x ash #fire dance threads

0 notes

wiresandstarlings · 7 years

Text

if you want it girl, go and get it; even if the pain is undeniable

Probably the moment I most improved at Magic was when I learned about Bayesian probability – it was like I finally saw the matrix for what it really was. And talking to other Magic players, I get the sense a lot of people have never even heard of Bayesian probability, even very good players. Granted, most good players understand and use Bayesian probability intuitively, but understanding it explicitly is valuable not only for discourse, but also as an actionable framework for improving. So, in the interest for never fucking hearing about a “soul read” again, I'd like to explain Bayesian probability.

As intimidating as the nominal compound “Bayesian probability” sounds, the concept is actually quite simple. You have some prior belief, you observe some event, and you update your belief based on the likelihood of the your observed event given your prior probability. For example, let's say you believe humans are the only life in the universe, so your prior belief that aliens exist is 0%. And then a spaceship crash lands in Madagascar. You would sensibly adjust that belief upwards.

Here's a simple example with numbers: Let's say you think there's a 20% chance it'll rain tomorrow, and that you have a weather detector that's 80% accurate. So whatever will happen tomorrow, the detector correctly informs you 80% of the time and otherwise misleads you. Now, you use the detector and it says rain. Given your prior belief, the probability that it rains tomorrow and the detector's telling the truth is 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.16. And the probability that it's actually sunny tomorrow and the detector's lying is 0.8 * 0.2 = 0.16. So after seeing the detector says rain, you now believe the probability it'll rain is 0.16 / (0.16 + 0.16) = 0.5. So because the detector's not super reliable, you're just not sure.

In practice, Bayesian probability usually involves Beta and Dirichlet distributions or even more arcane statistical nonsense, but the actual computations aren't that important. What's important is the way of thinking encoded in the methods. Bayesian probability accepts uncertainty and failure and misunderstanding.

One of the biggest mistakes I made starting out in Magic was trying to play around everything. In limited, I'd make lists of all the combat tricks and removal spells in a format and try to find lines that beat literally all of them when I was ahead. And when I found a line that did that, I'd take it pretty much regardless of how much advantage it required I give up so long as I still felt ahead at the end of it. But taking the most conservative line turn after turn, I often lost to rares or strings of topdecks I failed to consider. I thought I was clever for finding these complicated lines, and I never realized how stupid I was to give up advantage to play around cards that literally couldn't be in my opponent's hand.

For example, let's say you're tapped out at 3 life, and your opponent attacks you with their 2/2 flier. You take 2 damage and go to 1, then your opponent passes the turn with all her mana untapped. At this point, you know there's zero probability your opponent has a pump or burn spell in her hand, because you would be dead if she did. It's extremely unlikely she has a creature, because she would have played it. So she can only have lands or a removal spells. So if on your turn, you have the choice of playing your own removal spell or playing a 3/3 flier as a blocker, you should seriously consider removing her flier and playing around the removal spell she might have rather than playing your blocker to play around the dragon you know she doesn't have.

This example is overly simplistic in a lot of ways. The opponent might have a combat trick that doesn't kill you but will save her creature from a removal spell, like Wrap in Vigor or Apostle's Blessing. From how the game played out, you might also know the opponent doesn't have a removal spell. But when I was newer, I wouldn't even consider how the game played out. I would play my blocker there to play around all the big fliers rather than only the removal spells capable of killing a 3/3 flier, and hope to get a blowout against a pump spell, and then I'd lose and feel unlucky my opponent had one of their few outs. But in reality, it was more likely my opponent had one of those few outs than all of the cards I was playing around combined.

There are three keys to using Bayesian probability in practice: your prior, your information, and updating your prior.

Your prior is informed by your knowledge of the world, and the better your prior is, the less it needs to be adjusted to match reality. For example, if your opponent leads with a Breeding Pool and a Noble Hierarch in modern and you've done your research, you might be confident your opponent is playing Infect 60% of the time, Bant Eldrazi 30% of the time, and a fringe deck 10% of the time. You can then optimize your play against those two decks and basically ignore the other possibilities. If you're uninformed, you might naively assign equal probability to each of the decks which contain those two cards, incorrectly believing your opponent has a 25% chance of playing each Jeskai Ascendancy combo and Bant Knightfall. Perhaps you'd save your Abrupt Decay for each of those deck's nominal enchantments rather than killing the Noble Hierarch and restricting your opponent's mana, as you would against Infect and Eldrazi. Or if you're just uninformed and only know that Infect plays those cards, then you'd assign a 100% probability to your opponent playing Infect. And rather than killing the Hierarch, which is an excellent play against both decks, you might play Inquisition of Kozilek to snipe your opponent's Infect creature and lose to a turn 2 Thought-Knot Seer. Again this example is overly simplistic, but it serviceably illustrates the value of an informed prior.

Your information is what you notice in a game of Magic that might inform your prior. Information in Bayesian probability not as simple as a “tell” giving a way a specific card, as information in games is so often construed. When your opponent attacks and trades his 2-drop rather than using combat trick, then plays another 2-drop with a mana up, that doesn't mean he doesn't have a 1-mana trick like Precise Strike. He could definitely be saving his trick for a more important combat. However, his play does make it substantially less likely that he has Precise Strike, and you should appropriately reduce the weight of that card in your prior distribution. So while you shouldn't stop playing around Precise Strike altogether, you should prioritize playing around the other tricks in the format. Knowing what kinds of information are worthwhile and which kinds of information aren't, and then actually paying attention to the signal rather than the noise, is probably the hardest part of this whole paradigm.

Relatedly, it's important that you update your prior appropriately with the information you observe. The Precise Strike example still holds: if you take that particular combat as a certain indication your opponent doesn't have Precise Strike, you're making a mistake. One of my biggest learning moments on the Pro Tour was playing against Martin Juza during my first Pro Tour in Atlanta. He was playing Infect and I was playing Affinity. I had a Mox Opal untapped with a Galvanic Blast in hand. Juza had two lands and a Glistener Elf in play that he'd played with a Pendelhaven up the previous turn. That indicated to me he had a protection spell in hand. On his turn, he played a Noble Hierarch and attacked, again with the Pendelhaven up. He turned his Glistener Elf sideways and after I declared no blocks, he tried to use his Pendelhaven on it. Then he hesitated, untapping his Pendelhaven and passing priority. There are two explanations for Juza's play. First, he rushed through his combat, letting me declare my blocks before using his Pendelhaven. For those unaware of the minutiae of competitive play, triggers don't need to be verbally acknowledged so long as they don't visually effect the board state, but they must be acknowledged whenever they might effect the game. So Juza still could have used his Pendelhaven, but to do so he would need to forfeit his Noble Hierarch trigger, so there's no longer any reason for him to do so. The second is that he was trying to trick me into believing he didn't have a protection spell in hand. I assigned very little weight to this second possibility because I didn't think an established pro like Juza would go for a play like that at a Pro Tour. Given the first explanation, I should adjust my belief Juza has a pump spell down, since there's no way he taps out for just one damage if he has a protection spell in hand. So I played Galvanic Blast, he had the protection spell, and next turn I lost when he tapped out for Apostle's Blessing and Become Immense with exact Delve mana thanks to the protection spell in the graveyard. And while it was fine for me to adjust my belief Juza had a protection spell down, I shouldn't have reduced my belief to zero based on that one piece of information. I failed to consider that Juza was far more familiar with live competitive play than I was, which reduced the probability he was making a mistake and increased the probability he was bluffing, and I abandoned my read from the previous turn that he'd played Glistener Elf with protection up, so my prior belief of a protection spell should have been quite high at that point. I should have still assigned a 40-50% chance to a protection spell after the Pendelhaven move and played appropriately.

Another tale of overconfidence: I was playing against Norcal end boss Cash Turner in a Kaladesh pick-up draft, and I had a mediocre GW deck against his 4-color control deck. Cash passed with a single green mana up and a 4/4 in play to my 3/4, and I have a Hunt the Weak in my hand. Because he was playing a slow 4-color deck, I assumed he had few tricks in his deck, and believed if he had a trick, it would be Blossoming Defense, which trades with my Hunt the Weak rather than blowing it out. So naturally I played the Hunt the Weak, and I got blown out by Ornamental Courage. The next game, I made a similar play against a black and green mana that hedged against Ornamental Courage but got destroyed by Rush of Vitality, a different trick in one of his splash colors. I was informed after the draft that 4-color tricks is Cash's default deck, so while updating my prior to exclude tricks after learning Cash was playing 4 colors would have been reasonable against most opponents, that update was way off against him.

As you might guess from these stories, appropriately updating my prior is the weakest part of my own game.

Thinking about Magic from this perspective provides a clear, actionable framework for improving. In my view, Bayesian probability is all Magic is. So there are just three ways you can improve: learn and improve your prior, better discern signal from noise, and correctly interpret signals.

Bayesian probability also nicely summarizes a lot of traditional Magic theory. If you've heard anyone talk about “range”, range is just the parts of your prior which you assign nonzero probability. If you think there's a 30% chance your opponent has a removal spell, a 40% chance they have a trick, a 10% chance they have a creature, and a 20% chance they have a land, then your opponent's range is removal, trick, creature, and land. Thinking of range as a prior is even more useful because it requires a priori you weight each part of the range. Similarly, a big Magic catechism is that if you play around a card, you should play around it for the rest of the game. That follows from Bayesian probability as well: if you believe your opponent is 80% to have a Giant Growth in their hand, then it doesn't make sense to adjust that belief to 10% on the next turn without some extreme indication. However, Bayesian probability is less rigid: as you present your opponent with opportunities to use his Giant Growth through the game and he continues to abstain, you should adjust your prior downwards and eventually stop respecting the Giant Growth.

A last note on adapting your prior: It's the fad these days to dismiss tournament and testing results as insufficient sample size, and to diminish “results-oriented thinking”. And that's perverse to me, because sample sizes sufficient for statistics just don't exist in Magic. And if there's no such thing as a sufficient sample size, there's no such thing as an insufficient sample size. While it's true a set of 10 games shouldn't be taken as gospel, if objective evidence is meaningless, does anything have meaning? Similarly, if we can't trust results, what can we trust? We shouldn't overadjust our priors to match our results, but we should certainly adjust them.

So that's that. Hopefully some of this has been useful to you. And I'm serious: no more soul read stories.

0 notes

sphinxsmuses-archived · 3 years

Text

ooc: All Available muses/characters on the blog!

Fandomless/Zelda OC:

Fandomless/Disgaea OC:

Zalira Deona (A succubus who doesn’t really do succubus things. Her mom and dad are a powerful incubus and succubus pair who wanted her to follow in their footsteps. But all Zalira wanted was to laze around and eat human snacks and indulge in their culture (like manga!). Before they could send her to a demon academy, she ran away from home and ended up among humans.)

Genshin Impact:

One Piece:

Kingdom Hearts:

Fandomless:

Kishi MacAuley (A pirate captain in charge of a crew entirely made of girls around her age, Kishi sets sail on the seas to find treasure and love! So she calls her crew The Love Seekers!)

Fandomless:

Fate Series:

Yugioh:

Aku Yazoi (A wannabe punk boy who is hot tempered and tries to act cool but is a sucker for cute girls. Is kind of a dweeb. Is from 5Ds. Also has fandomless verse for non-Yugioh threads)

Fandomless:

Monster Hunter:

Pokemon:

Fandomless:

#ooc #all available muses #all available characters #if we have a thread with someone not on this list don't worry about it #they can be still around #just trying to keep my list short so it doesn't intimidate people #lol

2 notes · View notes

sphinxsmuses-archived · 3 years

Text

ooc: All available muses/characters!

Fairy Tail:

Emilia Clarimond (Emilia is a Celestial Wizard with the Jade Zodiac Keys, Mouse, Monkey, Tiger and Sheep! She is clever, stubborn, hard headed but can become friendly when she gets close to someone. To her, her Zodiac summons are like family. Has a Fate series Master verse!)

Genshin Impact:

Iyumi (Iyumi is a Fatui Mage hailing from Snezhnaya who is on the prowl for someone cute she can call hers. To most she acts vicious and snobby, ready to electrocute them should they get on her nerves. But should she find the someone she wants, she becomes more adoring and flirty, chasing after them until she can have them. Which can turn into an aggressive chase should the other not want her.)

Fandomless/Disgaea:

Fandomless/Zelda:

Kingdom Hearts:

Xia Malificia (A Nobody born from an innocent girl named Ai, except this Nobody turned out to be anything but innocent. She is flirtatious, mischievous, and loves to wrap people around her finger using her charms and seducing them. Has plant summoning/controlling abilities.)

Fandomless:

Kishi MacAuley (A pirate captain in charge of a crew entirely made of girls around her age, Kishi sets sail on the seas to find treasure and love! So she calls her crew The Love Seekers!)

Fandomless:

Yugioh:

Aku Yazoi (A wannabe punk boy who is hot tempered and tries to act cool but is a sucker for cute girls. Is kind of a dweeb. Is from 5Ds. Also has fandomless verse for non-Yugioh threads)

Fandomless:

Monster Hunter:

Pokemon:

Fandomless:

#ooc #all available muses #all available characters #changed up some verses for some characters #more under keep reading

1 note · View note