Iron Bowl 2017 final score: Auburn advances to the SEC title game 26-14 victory
The Tigers take down No. 1 for the second time in three weeks and keep their shocking Playoff run alive.
Postgame
Some stats:
Stidham (AU): 21-for-28 for 237 yards and a 146.1 rating. He also rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown.
Hurts (UA): 13-for-23 for 177 yards and a touchdown. He rushed 17 times for 80 yards.
Johnson (AU): 30 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown, three catches for 21 yards, and what will be the most high-profile injury of the next week.
Harris, Scarbrough, and Jacobs (UA): 18 carries for 122 yards and a score, six receptions for 32 yards.
Ryan Davis (AU): 11 catches for 139 yards. He was more than half of AU’s passing game, basically.
Ridley (UAB): Just three catches for 38 yards.
Fourth Quarter
0:00. Auburn wins and didn’t need drama to do it.
The CFP committee’s job just potentially got really, really messy.
2:29. That’ll do it. Hurts finally finds Ridley downfield for a 26-yard gain to the Auburn 30, but after a no-gain pass, a false start, and a sack, Saban has to use his final timeout before a third-and-22 attempt. Hurts and Ridley can’t connect on third down, and Hurts crosses the line of scrimmage before firing incomplete on fourth.
5:33. Third-and-4, 5:50 left, basically a do-or-die play for Bama: Stidham keeps it up the middle, then nearly bounces it outside for a first down, but Ronnie Harrison snares him from behind. Bama uses its second timeout. Auburn’s punt is fair caught at the 16.
5:50. Something big or weird is happening on nearly every damn play. Fitzpatrick makes a fantastic tackle of Eli Stove on third-and-4 to force a punt, but Alabama jumps offside.
And then things get even weirder: Johnson goes down with a non-contact injury on the ensuing first down and very nearly lets go of the ball before he is all the way down. Kam Martin’s first carry of the evening is an 11-yarder up the middle to set up a third-and-4, and Saban uses his first timeout of the day. And now Martin limps off of the field after getting his ankle rolled.
9:03. Alabama takes the field having trailed more today than in the rest of the season combined. Two plays gain eight yards, and Alabama finally converts its first third down of the evening with a Hurts draw up the middle. It’s quickly third-and-8, but Hurts scrambles for 16 more yards inside the Auburn 40.
But then ... um ... Bama center Bradley Bozeman loses his damn mind. He snaps the ball before Hurts is ready on third down, and then does it even worse on fourth down. Two plays lose 26 damn yards, and Auburn takes over at the Alabama 41. Complete self-destruction. EXCEPT...
...Auburn had 12 men on the field for the fourth down snap. The snap was so bad and so quick that the Tigers weren’t done substituting.
Fourth-and-8 becomes fourth-and-3. But it doesn’t matter. Hurts throws short of the chains to Robert Foster, is tackled by Carlton Davis and Javaris Davis short of the chains. Auburn takes over at its 30. Whew.
12:49. Auburn 26, Alabama 14. Wildcat reverse flea flicker trickeration! At the end of a double-trick play of sorts, Stidham and Davis connect again, this time for 25 yards.
One player later, Stidham scrambles again. He takes another big hit, but I doubt he cares: this one was at the goal line at the end of a 16-yard touchdown run.
This TD run capped off a HUGE drive by @AuburnFootball. http://pic.twitter.com/EX2aX9P6wn
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 25, 2017
A two-point try goes awry, but the Tigers are still up 12, dagger in hand.
Third Quarter
0:00. Things are happening quickly now.
Trevon Diggs returns the kickoff 55 yards to the Auburn 39, then Carlton Davis commits pass interference to prevent another bomb to Ridley.
Two Jacobs rushes move the chains again (Harris is getting plenty of rest on the sideline), but a huge delay of game penalty creates a third-and-9.
Hurts throws a desperate pass across his body toward Ridley in the middle of the field. It’s nearly intercepted, then it’s nearly caught for a touchdown by tight end Hale Hentges as well.
Almost. http://pic.twitter.com/ZXSSYht3g0
— SB Nation (@SBNation) November 25, 2017
After barely avoiding disaster, Bama finds it on the field goal attempt. JK Scott can’t handle the snap, and in a fire drill scenario, he completes a terrified pass to kicker Andy Pappanastos for a big loss and no points. Wasn’t quite a Kick Six but was costly all th same.
Not the first field goal that didn't go as planned for Alabama in the #IronBowl http://pic.twitter.com/oIhyzz2NWh
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 25, 2017
Stidham and Davis connect for a first down to the Auburn 37 as the third quarter ends.
3:02. Auburn 20, Alabama 14. Good lord, Ryan Davis has been big on third downs. He catches a short pass dragging over the middle on third-and-5 and races 25 yards upfield into Bama territory. Then Stidham scrambles for nine yards on third-and-9. A Stidham draw gains 12 more yards, and Johnson takes it from there. He rushes four times for 12 yards, eventually scoring from a yard out (with help from his lineman).
Auburn drove 69 yards in 12 plays and leads once more.
Three notes:
Johnson took a really hard hit to his left shoulder from Ronnie Harrison the play before the touchdown and went into the injury tent as the PAT was going up.
Third downs: Auburn 9-for-15, Alabama 0-for-5.
Total snaps: Auburn 62, Alabama 33. Pretty clearly related to the third-down mark.
8:08. Instead of bringing Harris back in, Bama elects to ride the hot hand and keeps Scarbrough in. It backfires. After two rushes for five yards, he’s chopped down for just three yards on third-and-5 — a spectacular open-field tackle by Stephen Roberts — and Scott’s punt is only decent. It’s fair caught at the AU 31. Bama’s 0-for-5 on third down, Auburn’s 6-for-12.
10:12. Alabama 14, Auburn 13. Saban’s still going to be pretty mad about third downs. Will Hastings shakes loose of linebacker Dylan Moses for a 20-yard catch and run on third-and-3 from the Auburn 28. A quick pass to Davis moves the chains again, then Rashaan Evans gets a personal foul for ripping Stidham’s helmet off at the end of a short run. (Oh hey, look, Stidham got roughed up some more.)
Stidham has to throw the ball away on a third-and-8, but the initial conversion helped to set up another Carlson field goal. He nails a 44-yarder like it’s a 24-yarder.
13:22. Alabama 14, Auburn 10. Well that was easy. Alabama starts the second half with a 12-yard pass to Harris, a 43-yard run by Harris, a 14-yard run by Scarbrough, and an incredibly easy 21-yard score. Five plays, 79 yards, and Alabama leads for the first time.
Alabama wastes NO time taking the lead. #IronBowl http://pic.twitter.com/p1vj1KKETi
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 25, 2017
Harris, Scarbrough, and Jacobs have now combined for 94 yards in 11 carries. I’m guessing offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s going have that carry total doubled reasonably soon.
Second Quarter
0:00. Auburn 10, Alabama 7. After a lovely Stidham-to-Davis shallow cross gains 23 yards against a blitz on third-and-6, Auburn plays things rather safe and sets up a 33-yard Daniel Carlson at the buzzer. Auburn leads the Iron Bowl at halftime. LaForce interviews Nick Saban as he heads into the locker room, and he rightly asserts that third downs have made a big difference so far: Auburn’s 5-for-10 on third down, and Bama’s 0-for-4.
2:53. Auburn will get one last chance in the half. Two Bo Scarbrough rushes gain six yards, and a third-down lob to Ridley is broken up by Jordyn Peters. Scott’s punt is fair caught at midfield. Ridley has caught just one of three passes for five yards thus far.
4:27. Another successful field-flipping drive for Auburn, at least. As CBS’ Allie LaForce talks about Alabama’s injury troubles at linebacker, Auburn gashes Alabama between the tackles with three Johnson rushes for 21 yards.
From there, Gus Malzahn gets a little too cute, using backup quarterback Malik Willis to run an unsuccessful zone read. Auburn quickly falls into third-and-12, and Stidham gets lit up by Minkah Fitzpatrick after a short scramble. Marshall unloads a gorgeous punt that bounces inside the 1 and is downed at the 2.
8:31. Alabama 7, Auburn 7. With nothing doing through the air, Bama goes back to the ground game. Josh Jacobs and Hurts move the chains with a pair of rushes, then it takes a fourth-and-1 conversion to move the chains a second time. Then, as Danielson is predicting a play-action bomb (albeit to Ridley), Hurts indeed pulls back after selling a run attempt and finds Jerry Jeudy for a 36-yard score.
JALEN HURTS TO JERRY JEUDY @AlabamaFTBL ties it up. #IronBowl http://pic.twitter.com/sKD6tC52Yi
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 25, 2017
Jeudy, a blue-chip freshman, got away with an upperclassman’s push-off there. But it ain’t offensive pass interference if you don’t call it.
11:57. Stidham’s getting hit a lot. He just took three good hits on a three-and-out: he flipped to Johnson for zero yards on what should have been about a 10-yard sack, he scrambled for five yards, and he got hit as he throws incomplete on third down. Marshall’s second punt is fair caught at the Bama 40.
13:38. There’s nowhere for Hurts to go at the moment, either with his legs or his arm. He rushes for five yards on first down but has to scramble and throw the ball away on both second and third downs. JK Scott’s punt takes an amazing Bama bounce and is downed at the Auburn 22, a 64-yarder.
First Quarter
0:00. FUMBLE. Stidham completes passes to Johnson (11 yards) and Davis (nine and 12 yards), giving him 12 first-quarter completions, the most anybody has had against a Saban defense at Alabama. But after an almost perfect first quarter, Auburn makes a killer mistake on the final play: Stidham can’t collect a bad snap, and Da’Ron Payne falls on it at the Bama 9.
Stidham should have just fallen on the ball instead of trying to salvage the play, and it cost the Tigers at least three points.
2:43. FUMBLE. With Auburn landing a major haymaker, Alabama wipes the blood off its lip and goes deep. Javaris Davis has to commit pass interference to prevent a bomb to Calvin Ridley, then Hurts rushes 17 yards into Auburn territory.
But a personal foul penalty backs Bama up, and on second-and-27, a scrambling Hurts is stripped by Derrick Brown, and Tre’ Williams recovers at the Bama 44.
4:38. Auburn 7, Alabama 0. Wow, a grown-man drive by Auburn right there. Da’Shawn Hand absolutely devours Jarrett Stidham on a zone read keeper, and Levi Wallace makes a gorgeous break-up of a pass to Nate Craig-Myers, but in between that,
Johnson rushes for 15 yards
Stidham hits Craig-Myers for a huge third-and-long completion
Slayton tiptoes the sidelines for a 23-yard catch-and-run
two perfect screens gain 14
Johnson throws a jump-pass touchdown to Craig-Myers
12 plays, 94 yards, 4:54. Against Alabama.
How about that jump pass?!
What a play by Kerryon Johnson and @AuburnFootball. #IronBowl http://pic.twitter.com/gq5BW7OUh7
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 25, 2017
By the way, Gary Danielson called that jump pass right before it happened. He’s still the best in the game at anticipating play calls.
9:32. Alabama comes out testing the edges as well. A wide rush and a short reception by Damien Harris gain a combined 17 yards, then a little flare pass to Robert Foster gains 12. That allows the Tide to flip the field right back before Jalen Hurts comes up about half a yard short on third-and-3, and a Bama punt is downed at the 6.
12:24. Auburn comes out with a Lane Kiffinesque script of play-calling: three straight quick passes to the sideline. Ryan Davis moves the chains on the second of the three, but then Darius Slayton gains three on a pass, Kerryon Johnson loses four on a handoff, and a Stidham scramble only gains nine yards on third-and-11. Aidan Marshall’s first punt is fair caught at the Bama 14. Good field flip, at least.
Preview
The Iron Bowl has always been a regional holiday. It is a rivalry so bitter that it couldn’t be played for 40 years. It has killed trees and somehow made Paul Finebaum a national name. It is always a big deal.
Sometimes it’s an even bigger deal, however.
When Auburn and Alabama kick off in Auburn on Saturday afternoon, it will be the eighth time that an Iron Bowl has featured two top-10 teams. Most of the previous instances have produced classic games.
1963: No. 9 Auburn 10, No. 6 Alabama 8. Tiger backup quarterback Mailon Kent engineers a late score and outduels Joe Namath.
1971: No. 3 Alabama 31, No. 5 Auburn 7. The most hyped Iron Bowl to date features two unbeatens, but only one shows up.
1972: No. 9 Auburn 17, No. 2 Alabama 16. Punt Bama Punt!
1974: No. 2 Alabama 17, No. 7 Auburn 13. Unbeaten Bama falls victim to a fake punt but makes enough stops down the stretch.
1994: No. 4 Alabama 21, No. 6 Auburn 14. Unbeaten Bama lets a 21-0 lead dwindle to one touchdown but makes a last-minute fourth-down stop in Tide territory.
2010: No. 2 Auburn 28, No. 9 Alabama 27. The Camback.
2013: No. 5 Auburn 34, No. 1 Alabama 28. The Kick Six.
Six of the seven games have been agonizing and tight, and three ended up with nicknames. That’s a pretty good percentage.
(I also can’t help but mention that, while Alabama leads the overall series, 45-35-1, Auburn won four of the seven biggest games. I’m assuming Auburn fans already noticed that.)
So what’s in store for their eighth top-10 meeting? Can Auburn, a four-point underdog, wreck Bama’s national title plans, just as it did in 2013? Can the Tide survive their trip to the Plains without another named game?
Two big, and rather similar, questions come to mind when looking at this game’s matchups.
Let’s walk through them.
Question No. 1: Can Alabama protect Jalen Hurts?
When you peruse Alabama’s statistical profile, you don’t exactly find many weaknesses. In bigger or smaller categories, the Crimson Tide are mostly in the top 30 at worst. But one particular pair of rankings does stand out:
Alabama’s offense ranks 103rd in Adjusted Sack Rate, and Auburn’s defense ranks eighth.
Hurts is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in FBS. He picks his spots well, he’s big enough to break weak tackles, and in two seasons as Alabama’s starter, he’s rushed 272 times (not including sacks) for 1,855 yards and 21 touchdowns. Under new coordinator Brian Daboll, he’s cut his rush frequency from 11.5 per game to 9.1, but he can still scoot.
The problem with a lot of good runners, however, is that they trust that their legs will bail them out of trouble, and they’re not always correct. While the national sack rate tends to hover around 5.5 percent, only one of the top 10 non-option rushing quarterbacks (Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald) is under 5 percent. And of the 10, Hurts’ 9 percent sack rate is lower than that of only UNLV’s Armani Rogers (10 percent).
This is important for a number of reasons. For starters, Auburn is one of the best in the country at leveraging you into passing downs. Ask Georgia. The Tigers rank first in Standard Downs S&P+, allowing just a 36 percent success rate on such downs. They aren’t necessarily all that disruptive against the run (just 57th in stuff rate), but they hold you to minimal games and force you behind schedule.
Bama’s offense when behind schedule: good, but not great.
Alabama’s offense ranks 36th in Passing Downs S&P+ and 69th in passing-downs success rate; Auburn’s defense ranks fifth and 11th, respectively.
Passing downs (second-and-8 or more, third/fourth-and-5 or more) are when turnovers and sacks tend to occur, and in their tightest games of the year, the Tide were dreadful on passing downs. They had a ghastly 5 percent success rate on PDs against Florida State, 22 percent against LSU, and 25 percent against MSU.
(The only closer game in which Bama was able to bail itself out: Texas A&M, against whom the Tide had a 40 percent PDs success rate ... but only a 33 percent standard downs success rate. Odd game.)
If Auburn is able to slow Alabama’s run game down — and it also bears mentioning that Bama is only 29th in Rushing S&P+ — then the Tigers could harass Hurts and force some three-and-outs. That starting Bama guard Ross Pierschbacher is questionable with a high ankle sprain could make matters even dicier for Bama, both in run blocking and pass protection.
Flipping the field and keeping the home crowd engaged? Sounds like a pretty good formula for an upset.
Subquestion: Can Auburn force Hurts to go to someone besides Calvin Ridley?
Hurts’ general pass progression has, on many occasion over the last two years, been as follows:
Look for Calvin Ridley.
Run.
Ridley has been targeted 78 times this season; he’s caught 52 of those passes for 858 yards and three scores. In Bama's last two games (a tight win over MSU and a laugher over Mercer), he has eight receptions for 274 yards; those were his first 100-yard games of the season.
It’s good to have a reliable No. 1 receiver, but if a defense can slow Ridley down, where might Hurts go with the ball? The next three top Bama targets (seniors Robert Foster and Cam Sims and freshman Jerry Jeudy) have combined for only 69 targets, 35 catches, and 545 yards.
Guys have had their moments. Jeudy had three catches for 48 yards against Tennessee but has zero since. Foster had a 52-yard reception against Colorado State. Freshman Henry Ruggs III has five touchdowns among his seven receptions. Freshman DeVonta Smith caught the game-winning score against MSU.
At some point, though, Bama might need a deputy receiver who can catch five, six, or seven passes in a given game. Who might that be?
Auburn’s done a mostly great job against No. 1 receivers this year. LSU’s D.J. Chark caught five of six balls for 150 yards, but he was the exception. Against seven other power conference opponents, the Tigers have allowed an average of seven targets, four catches, and 51 yards per game to No. 1 receivers. If that’s what Ridley ends up with, the Tigers would live with that.
Question No. 2: How does Auburn stay on schedule?
Alabama’s offense is a bit underrated. Fans pretend it stinks because it’s weaker than the Bama defense, but an Off. S&P+ ranking of 16th is far from embarrassing.
The problem for opponents tends to be that, even if you are one of the lucky few to really limit the Tide offense, you still have to score.
As I wrote a couple of years ago, only super-efficient teams tend to score on Alabama.
Saban destroys inefficient offenses. Eats them for breakfast with one of those Little Debbie sandwich cookies.
Let's break out a stat from my toy box (one that will be offered soon within my Football Study Hall stat profiles): Success Rate+. It is an opponent-adjusted version of the success rate measure defined here. Every play is deemed a success or failure based on down-and-distance criteria: gaining 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. Success rate is basically an on-base percentage for college football, and it allows us to track which teams are staying on schedule and ahead of the chains, so to speak.
Of Bama's 12 losses [between 2008 and mid-2015], six came to teams ranked in the SR+ top five and 10 came to teams in the top 20. (This table further emphasizes just how incredibly out-of-character Bama's loss to Oklahoma was, and for both teams.) If you're able to effectively move the ball four to six yards at a time and avoid passing downs, only then can you utilize the tempo and spread principles we've seen Alabama struggle with from time to time. Plenty of spread offenses have failed miserably against the Tide in this regard.
Since I wrote that, the only team Bama has lost to was Clemson in last year’s national title game.
2016 Clemson ranked first in SR+.
2017 Auburn? Currently ninth.
The Tigers have grown into themselves, responding to a 14-6 loss to Clemson with a four-game 42-point average. Since a second-half stumble and loss to LSU, they have averaged 44.
Clemson and LSU are the only teams to hold them under 6.3 yards per play. Auburn has torched two excellent defenses, with 40 points and averaged 6.9 yards per play against Georgia (No. 11 in Def. S&P+) and 49 points and 9.1 yards per play against Mississippi State (16th).
The formula is simple: soften you up with Kerryon Johnson, then hit you deep. Johnson missed the Clemson and Mercer games in September and averaged only 2.7 yards per carry against Missouri. But he's grown into the feature back role that came open when Kamryn Pettway got hurt.
Over his last seven games, Johnson has averaged 27 carries and 141 yards per game. He doesn't have to do everything; he just needs to keep his average over about 5 yards per carry for the defense to fail against run/pass options and play action.
The Georgia game was a master class in patience. Jarrett Stidham's first 15 pass attempts of that game produced eight completions for 60 yards and a sack. As UGA began to strain, however, and as Johnson found more room, Stidham began to get more aggressive. Over his last 10 attempts, he completed eight of nine throws for 154 yards and took only one more sack. He finished with touchdown passes of 32, 42, and 55 yards.
This all sounds great. But following this formula means running on Alabama.
And while this team isn't quite Saban's best (and while this defense is far from healthy), the Tide still destroy your run game. They are fourth in Rushing S&P+, are allowing gains of five-plus yards on just 29 percent of rushes (third-lowest rate in the country), and have allowed just two rushes of 30-plus yards all season.
You don't need 30-yarders to beat Alabama, but you at least need five-yarders. Will Auburn find the space?
It's not surprising to note that in the Tigers' two losses, AU backs averaged just 4.4 yards per carry; it's also not surprising that Stidham, therefore, struggled to pass. He was 22-for-50 for 244 yards and took 14 sacks (11 against Clemson). Success leads to more success for Auburn, and failure leads to more failure.
Depending on where you look, Vegas has Alabama as either a 4- or 4.5-point favorite at the moment. My S&P+ ratings see it even closer than that, giving the Tide a projected 2.8-point advantage, which correlates to just a 56 percent win probability.
The game could very well come down to who can run the ball and who can’t. You don’t want a piece of either one of these defenses on passing downs, so who does a better job of avoiding them?
0 notes