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mysticalibra1994 · 7 months

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Naranja/Uva Academy Students (birthday headcanons)

Okay, so since I have a notebook that I've been taking some notes on for Pokemon Scarlet/Violet (mostly "Violet" for me) to get ready for it (especially the Mid-Term and Finals). And I couldn't help but hypothesize about the students (including the Team Star members) about their birthdays by using the dates of their special interests. [Florian/Juliana's birthday is my birthday since the Playable Protagonist's birthday mirrors the player's birthday, so they're excluded from this hypothesis. (this also includes their special interests)] [Mela's birthday was a bit of a challenge due to not having the game yet (I planned on buying it for my birthday).]

1.) Florian/Juliana - October 12th Special Interest: Taking notes. This is non-explanatory, but it's also what I've been doing to get these pieces of information.

2.) Nemona - February 27th Special Interest: Pokemon battles. According to the real-life timeline of Pokemon, the first Pokemon game (Pokemon Red) made its first debut in Japan on February 27, 1996. In chronological order, it was the game, trading cards, manga, and anime.

3.) Arven - December 29th Special Interest: Making sandwiches. Due to the shape/size of the bread, I assumed that it would be "Subway bread", but due to the location of Paldea and its real-life equivalent of it (Spain, Portugal, and Andorra), it wouldn't make sense historically. So, I had to do some research on the Sandwich (which is based on the Bocatas or "bocadillo") and it was a little touch and go for a while, but I thankfully narrowed it down... According to legend, a general named Tomás de Zumalacárregui (12/29/1788-6/24/1835) invented the tortilla de patatas during the Carlist wars. When the bread was added, the bocadillo was born!

4.) Penny - February 14th Special Interest: Machines/computers. According to Penn Today (no pun intended), the world's first general-purpose electronic computer was introduced into the world on February 14, 1946.

5. ) Giacomo - December 15th Special Interest: Music, Rock (DJ) Albert James "Alan" Freed (12/15/1921-01/20/1965) was an American disc jockey (DJ) who helped spread the importance of rock and roll music throughout North America.

6.) Mela - September 23rd Special Interest: Flashy costumes. So, here's the reason why this was a challenge; there were no specific dates on when "flashy costumes/outfits" were a thing. So, I had to look a bit deeper at her attire for easy clues. Luckily, there's her boot! More specifically, her "over-the-knee boots". In the Autumn of 1962, Balenciaga had a collection that featured "a tall boot by Mancini that covers the knee". To get the month and day, I had to look up the Autumnal Equinox of that year.

7.) Atticus - November 16th Special Interest: Vintage. This was a little bit of a challenge like Mela's. But after digging, I came across the one article of clothing was that known as the birth of vintage... The raccoon coat. More specifically, the issue of The Saturday Evening Post featured an illustration of several college men sporting raccoon coats on 11/16/1929.

8.) Ortega - January 19th Special Interest: Engineer/Mechanic. Okay, so before I read about Ortega being a mechanic/engineer for the Ruchbah Squad, at first I thought that his thing was Fairycore. Ever since, after a little bit of research, the man named James Watt (01/19/1736-8/25/1819) was a Scottish inventor and mechanical engineer.

9.) Eri - February 12th Special Interest: Wrestling. Okay, so this may contain a pun, but it's a part of Japanese history. John Graham Chambers endeavored to introduce and promote the concept of a style of wrestling that he denominated "the catch-as-catch-can style" of wrestling (aka Catch Wrestling or "Professional Wrestling").

#Pokemon #Scarlet and Violet #Juliana #Florian #Nemona #Arven #Penny #Giacomo #Mela #Atticus #Ortega #Eri #the concept of birthdays #theories/headcanon

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profutured · 1 year

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Okay, so! Team Star HCs bc I have the brainrot:

Eri is a dog enjoyer. She has a Lucario of her own that she babies like there's no tomorrow, and she especially loves the more strong-looking dogs. Think Maschiff, Granbull, or Poochyena. That's not to say she won't adore a Fidough or Yamper, however! She loves all puppies.

She never felt confident in herself before Team Star. Though she was never bullied before her time in Uva Academy, she always preferred to keep to the sidelines and mind her business. Her transition into 'Infernal Eri', a permanent adoption of her wrestling moniker and luchador mask, came because it was the only way she could find the courage to defend herself. If she saw her bullies as just another opponent to beat, rather than as classmates and people she'd hoped would be her friend, it made it much easier to push back against their efforts and stand up to them when necessary.

Her popularity among the Caph Squad comes because she's... genuinely sweet. She's a kind leader and is always ready to throw herself into battle rather than let her girlies take the hit for her, and she's easily the most forgiving of the Team Star bosses. She instantly forgave Carmen, the girl who started off her bullying to begin with, and welcomed her into Team Star once the students turned on her instead. The two are best friends.

Eri loves to teach, and thinks she might want to become some sort of sports instructor some day. The Caph base is often hosting some sort of event, be it makeup or hairstyling parties, or intense, hours-long sessions on how to battle, wrestle, or spar with an opponent.

She's a huge fan of Alola's Masked Royal. Eri hopes she can battle him one day.

Atticus' real name is Henzo Shūmei. His family are from Johto originally, and Atticus spent some time training under the Elite Four's Koga before he left for Paldea. It's here that he got his Poison-type talent and knowledge, as well as a more in-depth education on what it meant to have ninja ancestors and how to actually fight like one.

He always planned to quit battling and study fashion once he finished his core education, specifically historical fashion and how to design his own inspired pieces. However, he was nervous about how his parents would take the news, especially after all the trouble they'd gone through to secure him a place as one of Koga's students, and he never ended up telling them before he left.

His decision to leave behind his 'real' name was a way to cut himself free of these worries and focus on being true to himself. It's also why he covers most of his face and speaks in deliberately old-fashioned ways - it's an attempt at anonymity and presenting as someone new. He's not Henzo anymore, he's Atticus!

Though his role as the Navi Camp's boss means that he devotes a lot of himself to improving his battles, it's still not his primary passion. He's much happier as the designer for Team Star's custom outfits, and frequently takes on requests for new variations and matching accessories. He took inspiration from Galar's Dynamax phenomenon and made Penny an even fluffier G-Max Eevee backpack, though he's yet to actually give it to her.

Once the game's events have occurred and they start returning to classes, Atticus works closely with Director Clavell to design an appropriate uniform head covering. He understands he can't turn up in his full poison-themed outfit, no matter how much he might want to, but he's not stepping foot in a classroom until he can keep at least a little of his anonymity safe.

#〔 out of character. 〕#rattles these two at you #pokemon scvi spoilers #pokemon spoilers

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peachypede · 1 year

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Small update. Daphne, his heracross, is now a regular colored Heracross because I wanted to give Pecha a shiny Heracross. (Can you tell my favorite shiny is Heracross kfgjsdkf)

Voice Claim: TBD

Battle Theme: Battle! Bug Type Expert by Maxo

Height: 6'2" (187 cm)

Weight: 245 lbs (111 kg)

Birthday: May 1st

Current Residence: Nimbasa, Unova

Likes: Bug types, Camping, Hiking, Foraging, Wilderness survival, wrestling pokemon, seeing his kids succeed in any way, Educating others on how to properly care for bug-types, learning new things about bugs!

Dislikes: hatred and mistreatment of bug-types, professors who act like they know everything

Fears: His kids ending up in a relationship that hurts them

Born in Hammerlocke, Galar to emotionally distant but wealthy parents, Calhoun often spent much time in the wild area befriending wild pokemon. He particularly became hyper fixated on bug types to the point that when he grew up, he decided to work towards being a pokemon professor (which required apprenticeship under a professor) but also wanted a doctorate in entomology (which requires traditional education) so Calhoun would juggle a lot of time between apprenticing for Professor Magnolia in Postwick then commuting to school back in Hammerlocke.

Though Proffessor Magnolia tried to convince him to continue her study on dynamax phenomena and his parents attempted to force him into the family's big investment business, Cal's heart longed for travel instead. When he graduated at 28 with a doctorate, he would leave Galar to go studying bug types abroad. It was during these travels that he would meet a woman in Unova named Persim Rodriguez. They would very quickly get married and soon after had their first child, a daughter they named Pecha.

Calhoun would become confused by Persim's sudden change in behavior after Pecha was born. Instead of kind, fun, and loving she would become easily frustrated with him to the point of screaming. Not only that, she'd rather leave most of the childcare to either Cal or her parents, Trueno and Leppa. At first, Cal thought that this was just due to the stress of becoming a new mother so he pushed through, but the behavior continued to the point where Persim began actively abusing Cal and neglecting her children. It would come to a head when Persim left the two children in the car during a summer day. Cal was quick to divorce Persim and gained full custody of his children and the three of them would move in with Trueno and Leppa, who had disowned their daughter and offered to help Cal raise the kids.

Cal embraced the new freedom he had with his kids and would take them on lots of trips. He loved having them with him when he was studying bugs instead of them being stuck inside at home. However, once they were teens, Leppa would approach Cal and tell him that they should attend school. It was difficult for Cal, but he decided to enroll them in Naranja-Uva Academy and, being a bit of a over-protective father, he also applied to be the biology teacher there and would stay as the biology teacher until Rawst graduated.

With his children all grown up, Cal suddenly found himself a bit aimless. He would help them through the tough times both of them would have attempting to find what they wanted to do but Cal couldn't help but realize he was in the same boat. Taking a note out of Rawst's book, Cal decided to start not only a youtube channel but a small bug type foster center as well where he would make youtube videos on how to properly care for bug type pokemon.

#oc calhoun #oc reference #im really proud of this ref tbh #I love Calhoun so much I wanna do more with him

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thetightstuff · 2 years

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Jack Mueller formerly of UVA Wrestling

#wrestling singlet

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loscrtpokemonau · 8 months

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How's life at the academy compared to your previous job?

I had to wrestle my phone away from Demo as they are in quite a mood about Ophelia being so inactive on this little social media experiment they've saddled her with. (Honestly Demo, we're both private people, and we are rather busy even if i don't have to do my duties at Uva for the moment, I know you read these!)

Prior to taking up my current job as Director of Uva Academy, I was freelance, I travelled across the globe working with pokémon centers, daycares, and wildlife sanctuaries caring for pokémon that those places were not equipped to handle.

Compared to all the travelling, and ups and downs of caring for pokémon that most would see as a lost cause, life here at Uva academy has a sense of order and structure to it that I haven't had in my life for some time. It is quite jarring at times, but I absolutely enjoy working with the pokémon here, and the students too of course!

I try to focus on the positives of the job, I was not exactly qualified for the position when it was offered, and it can be daunting at times given how much goes on behind-the-scenes to run the school.

I go where I feel my skills are needed, and in this case, Uva academy is where my skills are needed as of this time.

#Clavell Post #pokemon irl #ask blog

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pakistannewsreleases · 1 year

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Construction work of wrestling academy start at UVAS

http://dlvr.it/Slk44F

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silver-ace-of-spades · 1 year

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The Blazing Silver Light of Paldea

Chapter 6: El Espino

In Artazon, Silver and Blaze meet Gym Leader Brassius the Gecko, and Silver has a masterpiece of a battle, then Hassel the Komodo Dragon of the Elite Four gifts a Pokémon to Silver.

Also animal death mention btw.

🦋🦀🌱♧☆◇☆♧◇☆◇◇♧◇◇☆♧☆

When Silver woke up, he felt refreshed. He decided to walk with his three Pokémon to get breakfast while Blaze was asleep.

As they walked to a crêpe stand, Silver looked around at the scenery of Artazon. There were beautiful flowers everywhere, a flourishing hedge maze, and statues of Sunflora. Catnip especially looked happy. He purred and rolled around in a field of flowers.

"Aww, you're so cute!" Silver exclaimed. He smiled and kept walking. "Catnip, you'll have plenty of time to play in the flowers later."

Catnip shook the pollen off of his body and meowed, then ran up to Silver, Charlie, and Pecky. Silver bought two servings of crêpes and some Pokémon treats, then went back to the room to find that Blaze was still asleep. He quietly ate his breakfast and took his meds, then decided to do some training.

Blaze woke up to a warm crêpe on the table and a note that said "I bought breakfast while you were asleep, and now I'm out training in the East Province :) -Silver" She smiled and ate her breakfast, took her meds, and went to the East Province. Silver had put out training dummies for his Pokémon.

"Use Wing Attack!" They shouted. Pecky hit a dummy with his wings and chirped, eager for approval. "Great job!"

Blaze smiled and offered to help train Charlie's firepower. "He's got a lot of potential. You do too, Silver. Focus, and you will succeed."

Silver laughed. "You sound like my old mentor." They stopped laughing and looked sadly into the distance. "I miss him."

"Flora?" Catnip meowed sadly. Silver turned and saw Catnip reaching his paw out. He smiled and took his Pokémon's paw.

"I think I'll do the Gym Challenge. It'll help distract me." He said. He walked to the Artazon Gym and Blaze followed.

When he arrived, he saw Nemona, who was excitedly waiting for a battle. She noticed that he looked a bit sad and asked what was wrong.

"It's nothing. I'm fine." He lied.

Nemona knew he wasn't fine, but didn't push. She decided to call off the battle until the third Gym. "Get ready, Silver! I'll defeat you for sure!"

"No you won't!" Silver smiled with determination, showing their fangs, and the two held hands in an arm-wrestle position.

After Nemona left, Silver went to the counter to register for the Artazon Gym Challenge.

"Silver the Hedgehog, student of Uva Academy. Welcome. Your Gym Challenge is the Sunflora Hide and Seek." The counterperson said. "Please make your way to the Sunflora Garden."

Silver and Blaze walked to the garden and the lady waiting there explained the rules. "You need to find ten Sunflora hiding throughout the town. Please wait here for a few minutes while I hide them."

While the lady hid the multiple Sunflora, Silver sat and looked at the garden. It was beautiful, with blooming flowers and intricately cut hedges. Once the lady hid all the Sunflora, Silver lifted his arms and surrounded himself in a cyan glow. He floated into the air, Pecky spread his wings, and they looked for places where a Sunflora would hide.

"The playground has to have some!" He flew to the playground and searched for some Sunflora. He found three, picked them up with his psychokinesis, and brought them to the garden.

"This is the most fun Gym Challenge so far!" Silver told their Staravia.

The two searched opposite ends of the town and found the remaining seven. They flew back and let the Sunflora roam in the garden.

"Did... did you just fly?" The garden lady asked. Silver nodded and gently landed on the ground. "Well. You pass."

Blaze and Silver walked back to the Gym and informed the counterperson that Silver completed his mission. They led him to the battlefield.

A spiky dark green gecko man jumped from the windmill and did a backflip, but Silver caught him with their psychokinesis. After they set the gecko down, he jumped and did another backflip, then smiled. "How was that for an intro?"

"Are you okay?" Silver asked.

The man chuckled. "I'm more than okay. I'm Gym Leader Brassius. The artist that allows Artazon to bloom. I overheard your conversation. Silver, was it? A fitting name."

Silver laughed and readied his Pokémon, then put on a determined face. "I won't lose! Go, Pecky!"

"Go, Petilil, bloom forth!" Brassius shouted as he threw his first Pokéball. A Petilil appeared and chirped happily, but was defeated by a single Wing Attack. Next was Smoliv, who also fell to a Wing Attack.

"Impressive, but you won't win so easily. Go, Sudowoodo!"

Silver gasped. Rock was super effective against Fire and Flying, his main strategy against Brassius. However, he figured Brassius would Terastalize his Sudowoodo, so he wasn't too concerned.

"Become one with the plants, my masterpiece! I shall call you... Trueleewoodo!" The Gym Leader shouted as he threw his Tera Orb at the Pokémon. The crystals shattered, and Sudowoodo had a crystal crown representative of Grass.

"Use Wing Attack!" Silver yelled. The Wing Attack didn't do as much as he had hoped, and it took two Rock Throws for Sudowoodo to defeat Pecky.

"Great job, boy. Take a nice rest."

Silver looked at the Pokémon they could send out and came to the conclusion that Charlie was the best option. They took a breath and remembered what Blaze said earlier that morning. "Okay, focus, Silver. You've got this." After a few seconds, they threw the Pokéball. "Go, Charlie!"

Charlie's flame burned with fighting passion and he held his tiny fists up. "Char!"

"Use... Fire Spin!" Silver shouted. His voice cracked a bit from nervousness. Charlie nodded and shot a vortex of flames at Sudowoodo, defeating him and winning the battle.

The little Charcadet cheered, but noticed that his Trainer seemed scared. He started to walk over to Silver, but paused. "Cadet?"

Silver shuddered as Charlie walked over to him, but calmed down and took a few breaths. "You did great, Charlie." He nervously reached his hand to Charlie's head. "I... thanks."

Brassius, who was watching, smiled and nodded. "That was a masterpiece of a performance, young Silver. I think you're worthy of this Gym Badge." He handed the kid a silver-colored badge with a Grass-Type symbol in the middle.

Silver stuck the Grass Gym Badge on his jacket under the Rock Titan Badge and giggled. "Sweet! I gotta show Nemona when I see her again!"

Blaze and Silver made their way back to the Gym to verify his victory and saw a yellow komodo dragon man with orange eyes. He was wearing a suit and holding a Deino.

"You must be Silver the Hedgehog." He spoke.

"H-how did you know my name?" The child asked in shock.

"My partner Brassius told me you had defeated him." The man explained. "I'm Hassel from the Elite Four. I'm also the art teacher at Uva Academy."

Silver noticed the Pokémon in the man's arms. "What's that Pokémon you're holding? It's really cute."

Hassel started to tear up a bit. "This is Pepper the Deino. She was abandoned by her old Trainer, so I'm trying to find a new home for her."

Silver gasped. "That's awful! Why would someone abondon her?"

"There have been myths of the species' hostility, especially when evolving. These are nothing but old tales passed down, but since people have started killing them, the myths are starting to become reality." Hassel spoke, crying more.

"So their hostile nature is self defense and generational trauma?" Silver asked, making sure they understood.

Hassel nodded. "Hatred creates hatred. Only love can create love. Brassius also told me how you spoke kindly to your Pokémon, even your Charcadet whom you seemed scared of. I believe you can foster the love necessary to raise Pepper into a strong Pokémon."

Silver blushed. "Th-thank you. I will try my best to take care of her."

"One last thing before I go. If you do the Champion's Assessment, you will have to battle me. And maybe stop by the academy for an art class." Hassel put Pepper in her Pokéball and gave her to Silver, then smiled slightly.

Silver gasped in awe and spent some time getting to know his newest team member. He ended up with some bites on his arms, but he wasn't hurt too bad. Besides, Pepper was blind, so she had to bite to get a sense of her surroundings.

The teens and their Pokémon went back to the motel and checked out, then took a flying taxi to Cortondo, since Silver saw that there was a Titan north of the town. As they flew, he noticed that Blaze was terrified.

"Scared of heights?" He asked.

They nodded and whimpered, then hugged their Eevee tightly.

"Hey. I can catch you if you fall. I have psychic powers." Silver reassured his friend. "Do you want me to hold your hand? Not in a romantic way, but as a source of comfort?"

Blaze nodded and reached their hand out to Silver, and the two of them sat in silence until they landed. After landing, they checked into the Cortondo Motel and decided to get some rest before pursuing the Titan.

#toxic electricity #the blazing silver light of paldea #they've literally only known each other for less than a week but are so trusting #the return of pepper the deino

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manfanathletes · 3 years

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You're a winner, baby! In more ways than one.

#jack mueller #uva wrestling

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ex-frat-man · 4 years

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#wrestler #wrestling #wrestlers #uva #virginia #university of virginia

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sherrytrueself · 4 years

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My baby boy is awesome! 3rd place regionals in hs #wrestling #4.0 #Gpa with 5 AP classes! Yes I’m bragging. Accepted to #UVA #VT #UMW #GeorgeMason #VCU #UnivofRichmond waiting on 2 more acceptances we hope ... then decision time. #wakefieldhighschool #senior ❤️ https://www.instagram.com/p/B8951tBJfer/?igshid=u0pbtg85ez7v

#wrestling #4 #gpa #uva #vt #umw #georgemason #vcu #univofrichmond #wakefieldhighschool #senior

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peyton-williams · 7 years

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Photo gallery: Virginia Cavaliers wrestling at North Carolina Tar Heels wrestling

#UVA #UNC #Wrestling

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listpine39 · 2 years

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Notes From Peabody: The UVA Software Process: July 2022

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#美国论文代写 #论文代写 #代写论文 #代写 #北美论文代写 #北美母语导师 #英语母语代写 #合法论文代写 #合法代写 #美国合法论文代写

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isessaytyperlegit912 · 4 years

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college essay writing service

About me

How To Write A Better College Essay

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manfanathletes · 3 years

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Jack has a fantastic head on his shoulders... and between his legs.

#jack mueller #uva wrestling

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oddinthetruth · 4 years

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COVID’s Survival Rate Is Over 99%

I’m in the middle of a Twitter hiatus. I’m reading. I’m spending a lot of time with Maximus the Confessor’s “On the Cosmic Mystery of Jesus Christ.” It is a powerful work on Christ written in the 7th century.

I’m also reading assorted medical studies on COVID. And like I do with my doctrine of the Trinity studies, I’m reading primary sources. The CDC is a treasure trove of buried information. Many of the studies it cites are likewise flush with helpful footnotes.

COVID’s CFR vs. IFR

I’ve come across some interesting information on COVID’s Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). The IFR is an attempt to answer this question: what is the mortality risk rate of COVID?

In other words, it provides the average person and policy-maker the percentage or “likelihood that someone who catches the disease will die from it.”[1]

What is the IFR? It is “the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of [actual] cases.”[2] In order to translate the resulting ratio into a percentage, one multiplies it by 100. Importantly, the IFR differs from the Case Fatality Rate (CFR).

The CFR “is the number of confirmed deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases.“[3] The CFR is not the IFR. The CFR will always be artificially higher than the IFR.

Why? The CFR is missing a crucial piece of information. It is missing the actual number of infections. Because of this it produces an inflated mortality rate.

My state’s data, Virginia, will make the difference evident. As of this writing (8/1/2020), the VDH has the following number of COVID cases and deaths: 90,801 cases and 2,215 deaths. From this data we can quickly establish that the CFR is a ratio of 0.024394--simply divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. This a CFR percentage of 2.44 percent.*

And remember, for the reasons we’ve just mentioned, the CFR is an inflated mortality rate. It is also likely inflated for another reason. It is well documented that many COVID deaths reported are death with COVID and not death by COVID. This means the actual number of COVID deaths is likely lower. This would mean a lower CFR.

However, what is not reflected in CFR data is the actual number of cases. It is uncontroversial that, because of asymptomatic infections and various other reasons, the actual number of infections is much higher than the number of officially reported cases.

For example, on July 30, UVA Health reported[4] that, based on their research, it is likely that as many as 150,000 Virginians have actually been infected. This is substantially more than the aforementioned 90,801 infections; over 50% more.

We can use this estimate of actual infections, along with the number of deaths from the VDH, to establish a possible IFR for Virginia.

The IFR in Virginia is the number of deaths divided by the number of actual infections (estimated at 150,000). Given the UVA Health research, a likely Virginia IFR is somewhere around a 0.01476667 ratio. This is a IFR percentage of 1.48 percent.* This is almost half that of the (already inflated) CFR.

This is good news!

What this means is that the average person in Virginia who contracts COVID has a 98.52 percent chance of surviving--98.52 percent!

These numbers can be further parsed by risk factor, age, over-counts in COVID deaths, etc., to provide a deeper look into the IFR. If an individual is over 80 and has pre-existing conditions, for example, the IFR will be higher.

Is there an IFR for the US?

Interestingly, the CDC has estimated the IFR for the entirety of the US. Their estimates are even better than Virginia’s IFR. The CDC IFR is 0.68 percent.[5]

The below pic from the CDC shows the current (8/1/20) CDC IFR ratio. Multiply each scenario’s figure by 100 to get the IFR percentage.

This means that based on the CDC’s IFR an individual in the US who is infected with COVID has a 99.32 percent chance of survival--99.32 percent!

By contrast, the current CFR for the US (8/2/20) is 3.35% (based on the CDC numbers of 4,601,526 cases and 154,002 deaths).[6] It is the CFR that is most often reported as COVID’s mortality rate, not the much lower IFR.

A study by University of Stanford agrees with the CDC’s IFR estimates. “The median IFR found in this analysis is very similar to the estimate recently adopted by CDC for planning purposes.”[7][8]

In agreement with the CDC, the Stanford IFR study (and every study I’ve read) does note the following exceptions:

COVID-19 seems to affect predominantly the frail, the disadvantaged, and the marginalized – as shown by high rates of infectious burden in nursing homes, homeless shelters, prisons, meat processing plants, and the strong racial/ethnic inequalities against minorities in terms of the cumulative death risk.

But look at the Stanford study’s common sense suggestion:

Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having this lethal virus infect people and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes. These measures may be possible to be more precise and tailored to specific high-risk individuals and settings than blind lockdown of the entire society.

I’ll repeat that. They are suggesting, because of the 99%+ survival rate for the general population that control measures can be “more precise and tailored to specific high-risk individuals and settings [rather] than blind lockdown of the entire society.”

Have We Gone Too Far?

Based on what we know now, have we overreacted? Given the economic devastation (especially to the less fortunate), increases in diabetes deaths, heart disease deaths, suicides, etc., do we need to reconsider the current response to the COVID threat? Shouldn’t the response be more targeted?

There are healthy individuals who, since the middle of March, have yet to leave their homes. Is this rational given a 99.32% survival rate?

Recently, The Virginian-Pilot asked its readers “what coronavirus relief measures should Congress pass while in session this month?” One reader answered:

No man, woman or child may leave home without a work pass. Everybody must wear masks and gloves if they are not within 50 yards of their (legal) home. Non-adults must be accompanied by a responsible adult; if not a legitimate adult, arrest them. Legal papers must be on their body.

Is this rational given a 99.32% survival rate?

What is fueling such responses to COVID? It certainly can’t be the fact that statistically 99.32% of those infected with COVID survive.

By way of comparison, the Ebola CFR is a shocking 40%-50%. It kills almost half those it infects.[9] (The IFR for Ebola, as with COVID, would be lower). Even if the IFR were half the CFR for Ebola, it would still be catastrophic.

Maybe a driving concern is the safety of our children.

As of the date of this writing, COVID has killed 42 children 14 years old or younger[10]. By comparison, the CDC makes the following claim about the 2017-2018 flu season:

Even though the reported number of deaths during the 2017-2018 flu season was 187, CDC’s mathematical models that account for the underreporting of flu-related deaths in children estimate the actual number was closer to 600.[11]

Given that the CDC recently rounded down the 2017-2018 flu deaths from 85,000 to 60,000[12], this means that 0.01 percent of flu deaths were children.

If COVID killed 0.01 percent of our children, given current figures (the 150,000 deaths noted above), somewhere around 1500 children would have died from COVID...far higher than current figures. We are all grateful this is not the case!

Concerning the flu, here is another comparison from the earlier cited Stanford study:

A comparison of COVID-19 to influenza is often attempted, but many are confused by this comparison unless placed in context. Based on the IFR estimates obtained here, COVID-19 may have infected as of July 12 approximately 300 million people (or more), far more than the ~13 million PCR-documented cases. The global COVID-19 death toll is still evolving, but it is still not much dissimilar to a typical death toll from seasonal influenza (290,000-650,000), while “bad” influenza years (e.g. 1957-9 and 1968-70) have been associated with 1-4 million deaths.

COVID, thankfully thus far, kills far fewer children than the 2017-2018 flu did. And the death toll (though still evolving) is “not much dissimilar” from the flu.

Given this, I wonder again: have we overreacted? Given the economic devastation (especially to the less fortunate), increases in diabetes deaths, heart disease deaths, suicides, etc., do we need to reconsider the current response to the COVID threat? Shouldn’t the response be more targeted?

Wrap-Up

The aforementioned questions deserve to be wrestled in the context of the IFR. In the current climate of media and social media driven hysteria, panic, shaming, and fear, this is rarely being done. I can’t help but wonder why.

Read For Yourself

For a one-stop-shop study on CFR and IFR, read the CEBM’s (Center for Evidence Based Medicine) study “Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates.” See especially the section titled, “Estimating COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates (IFR).” Their estimate for the IFR is 0.28 percent. This means that 99.72 percent of individuals infected with COVID survive.

The study on which the CDC bases its IFR estimate is “A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates.”

You can also read the additional sources listed below.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

[2] Ibid

[3] Ibid

[4] https://www.nbc12.com/2020/07/30/virginians-may-have-had-covid-according-uva-health-research/

[5] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

[6] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

[7] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3

[8] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4.full.pdf+html

[9] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

[10] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

[11] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm

[12] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm

*Thanks to D. Mahfood for correcting a careless error I originally made when reporting Virginia’s CFR and IFR numbers. The error has been fixed.

#covid lockdown #covid-19 #Infection Mortality Rate #Death Rate

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