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victorluvsalice · 3 years

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Sims Challenge Wednesday: Vampire The Masquerade Bloodlines!

Hi all! We’re putting the usual Newcrest Adventures updates on pause for a week because I recently finished a little project I’ve been working on for a little while now -- doing Sims 4 challenges for two of my other favorite video games, Vampire: the Masquerade -- Bloodlines and Fallout 4! Yes, I’ve mentioned wanting to do this before on the blog, and now, finally, I’ve completed the initial drafts of each challenge! And I figured, who better to share them with than all of you. :) So let’s start off with the VTMB challenge!

(Oh, and note -- yeah, I just saw in the tags that someone’s actually come up with a VTMB-inspired Legacy challenge for The Sims 4. Mine’s a completely different one-generation challenge, but I am intrigued to see what’s going on with the Legacy version!)

VTMB SIMS 4 CHALLENGE

Premise: It all started out so well – a night out at the clubs, a flirtatious wink across the dance floor, a trip back to a seedy hotel room to get it on with your new partner. . .and then suddenly, in a mix of pain and pleasure, you find yourself lacking a heartbeat. And then some other people storm in, and you find out that:

A) you have been changed into a vampire

B) the person who changed you did not have permission to change you into a vampire

Your “sire” is put to death for disobeying the laws of the vampire underworld – but the rulers of your local city decide that you can be allowed to live. So long as you run a bunch of errands for them, of course. . .your only way out? Make some allies, make some money, gain a ton of power, and keep your head down until you can kick every one of these people’s asses personally. That is, if you (un)live that long. . .

This is a challenge loosely inspired by the experience of being the Fledgling PC in the video game Vampire: the Masquerade – Bloodlines. The goals are to become a Grand Master Vampire, graduate from a shitty apartment to a decent one, and defeat a bunch of other vampires in duels to prove yourself.

Packs required: Vampires, Get Together, City Living, Eco Lifestyle, Island Living, Cats & Dogs/Cottage Living

Your Sim: Create your “Fledgling” in CAS. Your Fledgling should be a Young Adult. You may start them out as a vampire to start the challenge immediately, or start them as a human, make a sire for them, then have them changed in-game to gain a few days to build skills and enjoy sunlight. (Remember that the sire must be killed after your Fledgling starts their change! I recommend locking them outside in the sunlight.) The challenge starts the moment the Sim transforms fully into a vampire.

Each Fledgling vampire in Bloodlines belongs to one of seven clans – Brujah (clan of rebels and brawlers), Gangrel (clan of loners and animal lovers), Malkavian (clan of mentally ill people and oracles), Nosferatu (clan of warped looks and computer specialists), Toreador (clan of lovers and artistes), Tremere (clan of magicians and scholars), or Venture (clan of leaders and those of rarefied tastes). Pick one clan for your Fledgling and assign them an appropriate personality trait –

Brujah – “Hot-Headed”

Gangrel – Either “Cat Lover,” “Dog Lover,” or “Animal Enthusiast”

Malkavian – “Erratic” (you may sub in a custom trait for mental illness if you have one)

Nosferatu – “Geek”

Toreador – Either “Art Lover” or “Music Lover”

Tremere – “Bookworm”

Ventrue – “Snob”

Optional: Also assign your Fledgling the “Kleptomaniac” trait as, in the original Bloodlines game, you do end up stealing a lot of stuff to sell to vendors for quick cash.

Optional: If you’re strictly following how vampires work in Bloodlines, leave your vampire’s Dark Form identical to their normal form except for their fangs (except if you’re playing a Nosferatu – then instead customize the Dark Form to look like their post-transformation Orlockian-self (think Straud’s Dark Form) and have the “regular” form be the disguise they wear around humans to fit in). However, if you really want to do a custom Dark Form, I’m not going to be the one to stop you.

Their World: Set up the rest of the save file according to the below guidelines:

Your fledgling must live in a terrible apartment in either San MyShuno or Evergreen Harbor. This apartment must have a low-quality bed, a low-quality kitchen, a small low-quality bathroom, a TV, and a desk with the cheapest laptop. It must also have at least the “Filthy” lot challenge. Upon moving there, set their starting money to $100 (this is the amount they got for expenses).

Make or download at least three or four other vampires (depending on if you want to use the premade Vladislaus Straud or not) and make sure that they live in nice apartments/houses and are at least Master rank (cheats are totally allowed for this). These vampires must all be part of the same club (your choice for the name), with one chosen as the leader – this is the club that “rules” over all the local vampires and is making sure your Fledgling doesn’t step out of line. Set them up to meet regularly either at one of their homes or at an appropriately-kicking nightclub. Club activities are at your discretion, though remember – if they’re in public, they shouldn’t break the Masquerade by showing off powers or drinking plasma!

Make one “Independent” vampire and set them up however you wish, though they must be at least Master rank as well. They may be important to your Fledgling later!

Make sure you have at least four nightclubs (obviously they don’t have to all be in the same world) for your Fledgling to visit on the regular.

Goals:

Your Fledgling is looking to complete the following:

Become a Grand Master vampire, with all the power and perks that entails

Complete the Master Vampire aspiration (they may work on other aspirations as well)

Earn at least $5,000 simoleons

Move into better digs (either a better apartment or their own house)

Defeat all the members of the ruling club of vampires in Vampiric Duels

Rules:

Your Fledgling is not allowed to get a normal job, as per the rules of the council. Your Fledgling is only allowed to earn money by selling items they have made or found (or swiped, if they have the right trait) to other Sims, or by doing Odd Jobs. Any Odd Jobs that your fledgling finds that come from the ruling council (that is, if you see their picture by the job description) must be prioritized.

Your Fledgling may drink from plasma packs both purchased and homemade, but cannot use plasma fruit while the challenge is ongoing. (This means no doing the Good Vampire aspiration until you’ve completed your goals!)

Your Fledgling may drink from Sims, but must not break the Masquerade in doing so. They must either isolate the Sim they choose to drink from and compel them for a drink; or they must isolate the Sim and flirt with them at least five times before asking for a drink (to make it seem like they’re asking to make out or woohoo instead of drink their plasma). Either way, they must not be seen feeding by other Sims. The Fledgling is allowed five slip-ups – after that, the challenge is failed and they are put to death.

Your Fledgling must get to know the ruling vampires – a friendly relationship, however, is very much not necessary. They are going to be battling them sooner or later for the right to live life on their own terms!

Your Fledgling must follow the rules of their clan when purchasing powers: All vampires may purchase the Garlic Immunity, Vampire Creation, and Child of the Moon powers. Brujah vampires may purchase the Detect Personality, Vampiric Strength, Vampiric Slumber, Supernatural Speed, and Influence Emotion powers. Gangrel vampires may purchase the Bat Form, Vampiric Strength, Vampiric Slumber, Dampened Emotions, and Beyond The Herd powers. Malkavian vampires may purchase the Cast Hallucination, Command, Irresistible Slumber, Deprive Needs, and Influence Emotion powers. Nosferatu vampires may purchase the Eternally Welcome, Vampiric Strength, Irresistible Slumber, Odorless, and Mist Form powers. Toreador vampires may purchase the Eternally Welcome, Vampiric Charm, Mesmerize, Supernatural Speed, and Influence Emotion powers. Tremere vampires may purchase the Occult Student, Command, Manipulate Life Spirit, Deprive Needs, and Immortal Pleasures powers. Ventrue vampires may purchase the Detect Personality, Command, Mesmerize, Dampened Emotions, and Beyond The Herd powers. No vampires may purchase the Sun Resistance or Tamed Thirst powers.

Your Fledgling must also follow the rules of their clan when it comes to weaknesses: All vampires must purchase the Withered Stomach weakness – human food is indigestible to them. Brujah vampires like to rebel and fight – they should get into a fight with another Sim at least once every three days. They may fight the ruling vampires, but it doesn’t count as “defeating” them until they do it in an official vampire duel. They are also encouraged to purchase the Sloppy Drinker or Insatiable Thirst weaknesses. Gangrel vampires prefer open spaces and animals to being around people – they should have at least one pet (probably a cat or dog, although if you think you can fit a chicken coop or animal shed into their final home. . .) and prioritize socializing with that pet over socializing with other Sims. They are also encouraged to purchase the Uncontrollable Hissing or Undead Aura weaknesses. Malkavian vampires must deal with their madness – they should indulge their whims as much as possible (no matter how little sense they make – hell, the less sense the better), and you’re encouraged to let them do their own thing as much as possible as well (full autonomy on, people!). They are also encouraged to purchase the Uncontrollable Hissing or Fitful Sleep weaknesses. Nosferatu vampires are all warped by their curse into visions of pure ugliness – they should stay in their Dark Form as much as possible and only “put on their human disguise” to go to a club – and even then, they can only “keep up the illusion” for four hours. Being seen on a community lot by a large group of mortals in your Dark Form is a Masquerade violation, so keep track of the time! They are also encouraged to purchase the Dayphobia or Undead Aura weaknesses. Toreador vampires are mesmerized easily by what they personally consider beautiful, and are also a little more sensitive to the fact that they’ve become undead monsters – they should spend as much money as they can on beautiful artwork for their homes every three days, and spend most of their time admiring lovely objects and/or Sims when they’re out and about. They are also encouraged to purchase the Guilty Drinker or Eternal Sadness weaknesses. Tremere vampires are insular and ill-trusted by other vampires, and are so focused on their scholarly pursuits they lack physical fitness – they should not bring any of their relationships with other vampires up above “Acquaintance” (barring the Independent, see below), and should not improve the Fitness skill (or any other physical sport-related skill) above 5. They are also encouraged to purchase the Sloppy Drinker or Dayphobia weaknesses. Ventrue vampires may only drink from certain kinds of people – they should pick a distinguishing feature (hair color, eye color, personality trait, etc) and then only drink from Sims with that trait. They may drink regular plasma packs, but cannot drink ones made from fish or frogs. They are also encouraged to purchase the Guilty Drinker or Insatiable Thirst weaknesses. Optional: Your Fledgling can take the Thin-Skinned weakness no matter their clan, but I actually wouldn’t recommend it – while it fits with the World of Darkness lore, your Fledgling is going to have to be active during the day for their Odd Jobs most likely. Basically, take that one at your own risk!

Your Fledgling may befriend your Independent vampire – in fact, this is encouraged, as the Independent vampire can teach them a new power! Upon becoming friends with the Independent vampire, your Fledgling may learn one “out-of-clan” power that does not conflict with any of their weaknesses.

Your Fledgling must visit a nightclub once every three days to socialize, dance, and generally pretend to be human. If they can find a way to make money at the club or discreetly feed, even better.

Your Fledgling must “officially” defeat all members of the ruling vampire club in Vampiric Duels in order to break their hold on their unlives. Once this is accomplished, they may get a Freelancer job or sell things direct from inventory instead of to other Sims to pay the bills, as they are no longer under the club’s thumb.

Optional Hard Mode – Four Factions: There’s not one club, there’s four – and none of them like each other! Make three extra clubs, each with at least four vampire members, to represent the four main factions of the original game – the Camarilla (the “official” vampire government, kind of stodgy), the Anarchs (rebellious and looking for more freedoms), the Sabbat (want to revel in their monstrous nature), and the Kuei-Jin (Asian “vampires” who are trying to take over the area; feel free to make them a different kind of occult altogether!). Your Fledgling may choose to join any one of these clubs, or none of them. If they join a club, they have to defeat the leaders plus one member of each of the other clubs in Vampiric Duels to earn their freedom; if they go Independent, they just have to take down all four leaders.

Optional Hard Mode – Limited Map: Your Fledgling can only travel between the worlds of Evergreen Harbor (Santa Monica), San MyShuno (Downtown L.A.), Del Sol Valley (Hollywood), and Mt. Komorebi (Chinatown – it’s the closest we’ve got, just stick to the more city-like neighborhood). Their initial bad apartment must be in Evergreen Harbor, and they must upgrade to one of the best apartments in San MyShuno.

Optional Hard Mode – The Sequel: Your Fledgling is actually the protagonist of the ever-in-production Bloodlines 2 – aka, they’re a Thin-Blood, and their Embrace was REALLY illegal. Adjust the rules as follows:

Thin-Bloods often don’t show signs of any clan, but they are generally hunted and killed just for existing. If you have StrangerVille, I would recommend the “Paranoid” personality trait, but otherwise, customize them as you see fit.

After buying their shitty apartment, you must set their starting funds to zero – they did not receive anything for expenses, because. . .

They’re not under the thumb of the ruling vampires, they’re on the run from them. To be caught is to be killed, so your Fledgling must avoid their notice. Do not attempt to interact with them before you’re powerful enough to take them on, and avoid any Odd Jobs that come from them. (They may still talk to the Independent vampire, who doesn’t care about the politics.)

Their lack of clan means they may choose from almost any of the available powers (aka, anything but Sun Resistance and Tamed Thirst), but must have double the points needed to buy them before they can purchase them (due to their weak vampire blood). They also cannot sire new vampires, so they cannot take Vampire Creation. Befriending the Independent vampire allows them to purchase one power for normal cost.

#sims 4 #vtmb #sims challenge #vtmb sims 4 challenge #I'm reasonably happy with how this one came out #it worked a lot better when I stopped trying to match specific Bloodlines disciplines to Sims 4 powers #and decided to go with 'what feels right for each clan'#please remember this is my initial draft #this hasn't been playtested or anything yet #please feel free to tweak and make adjustments and whatnot #make it so it's playable for you #it's supposed to be fun after all :)#and I think it captures the main thrust of the game pretty well!#also yes figures I'd finally get this done just as someone makes a VTMB Legacy #though I am very curious to see how that works!#queued

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route22ny · 3 years

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Experts divided on coronavirus risks of eating indoors

By Grace Dickinson The Philadelphia Inquirer

Once you’re vaccinated, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have officially OK’d having friends over for dinner if they’re vaccinated, too.

The recent guidelines also say that once vaccinated, you can have a mask-less, indoor hangout even if your guests aren’t vaccinated, as long as you’re gathering with people from a single household, and no one in that household (or anyone they live with) has an increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19. In other words, even if you’re weeks away from that first shot, you needn’t necessarily wait to break bread with your vaccinated parents or grandparents.

But what about indoor dining at a restaurant, where you won’t be able to predict the vaccination statuses of other patrons and staff?

The CDC guidelines don’t specifically address this topic. However, they do encourage everyone, vaccinated or not, to continue avoiding medium- and large-sized gatherings, and wear a mask and social distance when in public spaces. The CDC also recently published a report that concluded, “mask mandates and restricting any on-premises dining at restaurants can help limit community transmission of COVID-19.”

Opinions about the safety of indoor dining after you’re fully vaccinated aren’t universal. We asked the following experts to weigh in on the risks.

Would you dine inside a restaurant right now?

Some experts would like to see the country get closer to herd immunity before returning to indoor dining. Herd immunity is considered to be achieved when between 70% to 90% of the country has been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 infection.

“The vaccines are very effective, but they’re not 100 percent, and we do have variants that are circulating and still being researched,” says Darren Mareiniss, an emergency medicine doctor in Philadelphia. “If our case numbers and our positive tests rates were significantly lower, let’s say below 2 or 3 percent, then I might be more apt to eat inside.”

On the other hand, some experts say you don’t need to wait, given the vaccines’ effectiveness, both in clinical trials and in emerging real world studies. This is assuming health department guidelines are being followed, like table distancing and mask wearing.

“I would feel comfortable indoor dining with a small group, and by small group, I mean one other person or family that’s at low risk of having any complications,” says Neal Goldstein, an assistant research professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University in Philadelphia. “This is based on the effectiveness of the vaccination and the current minimal risk. And that’s the fine line. I’d love to say that there’s no risk here, and I can’t say that. But there’s minimal risk, and that’s what we’re going to have to deal with for the near future.”

What is the risk of indoor dining if you’re vaccinated?

By nature, restaurants bring together multiple households in the same space, without everyone wearing masks. The more people in the restaurant, the greater the risk, especially now, when the majority of the country remains unvaccinated.

“Even if you’ve been vaccinated, there’s a risk of you potentially becoming infected, and we’re also concerned you could still transmit (the virus) asymptomatically to other people in the restaurant,” says Mareiniss.

No vaccine is ever 100% effective, and researchers are still studying how effective the COVID-19 vaccines are against multiple circulating variants, as well as if you can be a silent carrier when you’re vaccinated. Until there’s more data, Mareiniss encourages caution.

However, early research in both of these areas is pointing in a positive direction, and Goldstein says there are bigger risks we must tackle — the main one being vaccine hesitancy.

“Unfortunately when we tell people, ‘Why get vaccinated if nothing changes?’ it seems to disincentivize getting vaccinated, and vaccination is the best tool that we have right now to get back to normal,” says Goldstein. “Once vaccinated, you dramatically lower the risk to yourself and others and should be able to enjoy eating in a restaurant.”

But Craig Shapiro, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist in Delaware, says community transmission rates aren’t yet low enough to let down our guard.

There are other ways vaccinated people can spread the virus — and that’s if you get infected. Current variants make it challenging to predict your exact risk of getting infected.

“You’re not likely to need hospitalization or die (if you get infected after vaccination), but does that mean you couldn’t spread it to someone else? No, and you’re increasing that risk by entering an environment that we know is particularly risky,” says Shapiro.

“It’s a tightrope we’re walking. We want people to get vaccinated, we want to give them hope, and getting the vaccine does make it safer to do more things,” Shapiro adds. “If you are going to dine in, the most important things are going to be (table) spacing, mask wearing, ventilation and the cleaning processes.”

Shapiro recommends calling in advance. If a place can’t communicate their safety measures, choose another restaurant.

What about outdoor dining?

As the weather heats up, outdoor dining becomes a more practical option in many U.S. locations, and the good news is that even many of the most cautious experts say they’d feel comfortable dining outdoors once fully vaccinated.

“I’d be totally fine eating outdoors and with low-risk people,” says Mareiniss. “But everyone in their household must be low risk. If grandma’s at home, I wouldn’t eat with them.”

Goldstein says he’d choose outdoors, too, if sharing a meal with people who aren’t yet vaccinated. Shapiro says he’d always recommend outdoor dining over indoor when it’s an option. As more people become vaccinated, advice is expected to evolve.

“At some point, we also have to understand this virus isn’t disappearing,” says Shapiro. “It’s going to become part of our daily lives, just like influenza or any other respiratory virus, and at some point, we are going to have to accept those risks, albeit hopefully when they become even smaller, but that risk is never going to be zero. Once we can be in an environment and know everyone is vaccinated, that’s the best that we can do.”

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(This article appeared in the New York Daily News, April 18, 2021)

#life during covid #public health #coronavirus vaccination

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brieucgwalder · 4 years

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A look at tango. (Una mirada al tango). By Ernesto the Monkey Cabral, 1926. We’ve seen Cabral before. One of the great Mexican illustrators of the 20th century. A master of line and elegance… Think how daring – and codified – Tango was in 1926…

Monet’s garden at Giverny during Emil Bührle’s visit in 1951. Photo by Walter Dräyer. Monet’s house and gardens were not yet open to the public I believe.

Monet’s garden and bridge at Giverny. 2016.

Japanese wood-block. Late 19th century, at Monet’s house. At the beginning of the Meiji era, when Japan was opened to the West by force, western artists discovered the art of Japanese woodblocks. A totally new style. Most impressionists, as well as Van Gogh and Gauguin were fascinated by this new technique. Monet’s house is full of those. They are probably originals while all the paintings are copies. The artist here is probably Utagawa Hiroshige.

Helmut Newton, c.1967, for Vogue. An homage to Hollywood’s Films noirs. Paris 2019, at the expo “Fil Noir”. Helmut Newton was born in Berlin in 1920, died in Los Angeles in 2004. Referred to as an Australian photographer of German origin. 🙂 He did get around, didn’t he? He was one of the best photographers of the second half of the 20th century.

Mexico de colores. Mexico in colous. By Erik Rivera, 2016. Contemporary Mexican artist. An interesting touch.

“Tennis steps”. Pasos de Ténis, Ernesto Cabral. 1927. Now think back. 1927… Those young women, born around 1905, are out to play tennis. Showing their legs! Knees! Practicing a sport! Their mothers wore a corset, and fainted all the time according to literature.

Buddha doing the gesture of teaching (Vitarkamudra) China, Qing dynasty. Mid-1700’s. Musée Guimet, Paris.

Soldier children. A very disturbing expo at the musée Guimet last year. (And I am always careful with adjectives…) By Pharrell Williams and Japanese artist Mr. Just Mr. The graphic style is very “manga”. Disturbing nonetheless.

No art post could be complete without Van Gogh. Atelier des lumières. Paris. 2019. (Or without Gauguin… need to locate my Orsay pictures)

L‘enfant couronné by Maillol (1861-1944). When Maillol paints this portrait in 1982, he is barely 31. He will later be remembered by his sculpture, but he was a great painter. Left is the “original” painting as it can be seen at the Musée Maillol. Right is the same shot after a Photoshop automatic balance of tones and colours. Were those the colours Maillol painted and later faded over a century?

A typical Maillol sculpture. Musée Maillol, Paris.

Fashion photography, by Dora Maar, mid 30’s. Compare to Maillol’s statue above.

Nusch Eluard, c-1935, by Dora Maar. Nusch (little nut in Alsatian) was Paul Eluard’s wife.

Sur mes cahiers d’écolier On my schoolboy’s notebooks Sur mon pupitre et les arbres On my desk and the trees Sur le sable de neige On the sand of snow J’écris ton nom… I write your name…

…

Et par le pouvoir d’un mot And by the power of a word Je recommence ma vie I start my life anew Je suis né pour te connaître I was born to know you Pour te nommer To name you LIBERTE FREEDOM

Eluard wrote this poem in 1941, during WWII and the Occupation. Published and circulated clandestinely, it was Eluard’s contribution to the Résistance. Some say the poem was strongly influenced by his wife, Nusch. And that her name was the other name he would “write” on his schoolboy’s notebooks. Nusch Eluard died in 1946, just after the war. She was part of the most prominent group of artists and intellectuals of the “between two wars” Paris.

Brussels, 1932, by Cartier-Bresson (1908-2004). One of Cartier-Bresson’s first European travels as a young and promising photographer. Below: Spain 1933.

The 30’s in Europe, and elsewhere, were fraught with economic crisis and civil war. The Spanish Civil War lasted from 1936 to 1939. In 1933, this man slept in the streets of Madrid, using his suitcase as a pillow. Millions were on the street in Europe and the US. The Spanish Civil war was in many ways a “rehearsal” for WWII.

Catrinas, Dolores Olmedo museum, Mexico city, 2019. The Catrinas (Catherine) are the symbol of death in Mexican culture. Always very elegant.

The life of Buddha as King Nemi. Burma, 19th century. Musée Guimet. In one of his previous incarnations, Buddha was King Nemi. He traveled with Shakra, King of Heaven to observe Heaven and Hell, the punishments and rewards of each.

Spain 1933. By Cartier-Bresson. That was Spain a century, a “minute” ago. The Civil war would soon rage, but already young fathers slept in the streets of Madrid, holding on to their children.

Thank you for visiting Equinoxio’s virtual Re-Art museum. I wish our Time-Space shuttle could move forward. And reassure us that we are not in the middle of the dress rehearsal of a major… “mishap”.

My very best wishes to all those in “coronavirus” lockdown in the world. An apology to China, whom the rest of the world has left pretty much alone to deal with their sh…, I mean, “problem”. Oh, now it’s reached our shores, eh? Damn!

A special commendation to the “leaders of the free world” who superbly ignored the signs, made no planning whatsoever, and are now left holding the ball… (Well, WE are left holding the ball)

And the Oscar of Stupidity goes to… Boris Judas Johnson, who recommended to carry on mingling, so as to “develop herd immunity”. Can’t very much shut down the pubs can we? In psychoanalytic terms, he has just revealed his hand. “Herd immunity”? To him (and others, assuredly), we’re just “cattle”.

Mexico is going into progressive lockdown this week. Stay home and stay safe.

Presentation. Art. World. Beauty A look at tango. (Una mirada al tango). By Ernesto the Monkey Cabral, 1926. We've seen Cabral before.

#Buddha #Cartier-Bresson #Dora Maar #Erik Rivera #Ernesto Cabral #Helmut Newton #Hiroshige #Maillol #Monet #Nusch Eluard #Paul Eluard #Pharrell Williams #Van Gogh

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thegold59 · 4 years

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Swedish Empiricism in the COVID-19 struggle: Eccentricity or Enlightenment?

Sweden, what gives? We’re right in the throes of the most dangerous and scary pandemic since 1968. Yes, everyone, don’t forget “Hong Kong” flu which killed a million people in 1968, though dwarfed by the 50-100,000,000 people killed in 1918-1920’s “Spanish” flu pandemic. Noting by the way that only fools these days insist on using “national” origin titles for epidemics. So this is definitely not Wuhan disease. With those forebears, why don’t you take all of this carnage a little more seriously? Were you asleep for Ebola (2014-2016) as well? We’re all in lock down now (well, mostly), while you seem to be sauntering and sashaying along with what appears to be blissful Scandinavian insouciance. So, again, Sweden, what gives?

As of today, 6th April 2020, barely four months into this COVID-19 cataclysm, we have 51,608 people infected in the UK (based solely on hospital screening) and have seen 5,373 deaths. Both figures are unfortunately likely to rise very substantially while also being seriously inaccurate - on the one hand, only screening the sickest in a situation where we know 25% of people who interact with the virus have no symptoms means that probably for every one person screened under current circumstances in the UK, there are 99 others with the virus. And on the other hand, with the deaths, well, there are about 15,000 deaths per week in the UK from a wide variety of causes, so the much smaller number of true COVID-19 deaths will be hard to take account of. Indeed, dying WITH not OF COVID-19 is how it is officially described.

In Sweden, again, on 6th April 2020, there have been 7,206 people who have screened positive for the virus, and 477 deaths with it. When you adjust for the population difference between the two countries (66 millions versus 10 millions, approximately), there is not so great a difference between us. In both countries, field hospitals are being constructed to cope with additional patients requiring medical attention. Mortuaries are being primed to respond.

In the UK we now have unprecedented measures being taken to restrict our ability to live, move, work and play. We have to work at home, if at all possible. We must keep a “social distancing” distance between us - 2 metres is currently much in vogue it seems. We can only go out of our houses once a day, for a heavily prescribed list of activities. Pubs, clubs, bars, restaurants were all closed over a fortnight ago.

These UK measures were rushed into being following a lightening policy volte face - from “herd immunity” being the previously preferred approach. On March 13th 2020 it was said that “if the risks of COVID-19 were not too high, it would technically be possible to bring about herd immunity by allowing the disease to run rampant through a population”. By 25th March we had arrived at the implementation of an set of extreme measures of mitigation, following some population outcome modelling by Imperial College London academics published on 16th March 2020: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf. See diagram 1.

To have achieved herd immunity, each infected person must, on average, infect less than one person when averaged out. Once the transmission rate drops below one, a community can be thought of as having achieved herd immunity. That won’t stop each and every case, but it will prevent the disease from spreading indefinitely. Many of our lessons on herd immunity come from the measles, because it's so contagious. The more infectious a disease is, the more people who need to be immune to reach herd immunity. One person with measles, for instance, could infect up to 18 other people in a susceptible population. To get that transmission rate all the way down to less than one, almost everyone in the population needs to act as a buffer between an infected person and a new potential host. That’s why measles needs such a high rate of herd immunity—around 95 percent. Research so far suggests that the coronavirus has a much lower infection rate than measles, with each infected person passing it on to two or three new people, on average. This means that herd immunity should be achieved when around 60 percent of the population becomes immune to COVID-19.

In France, by the way, the impositions (following their own similar projections) have been even more draconian, with official certification needed to explain one’s presence outdoors, and extensive fines for those flouting these rules. Many other countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, the Americas have seen similar serious erosion of civil liberties, often but not always underpinned by some enabling legislation, and enforced by the police and other authorities. In China, Russia, and other totalitarian dictatorships, artificial intelligence, facial recognition, and state surveillance have been retooled and repurposed. The negative impact on the global economy of these measures will be at least as great as that of the Great Depression of 1929. It may spell the end of the Euro-zone. The eye-watering debt levels of some countries already thoroughly beggared by debt (step forwards and take a bow, Italy, France, Japan, USA) will at best take many generations to pay off.

So, is the remarkable battery of criticism leveled against Sweden actually justified right now? And how much of an outlier really are they?

Sweden is suddenly a punching bag on social media, and indeed, perhaps in a more balanced fashion, in much of the more mainstream press and commentaries. What did the normally placid, reliable, Swedes do to so torment the Twitter sphere and provoke the press?

Sweden, unlike its European neighbours and (by now) most US states, has declined to take a hard-line approach to the novel coronavirus pandemic. Instead of instituting mass shutdowns and ramping up policing, Sweden has responded with a far lighter touch. Note - it HAS done many things, but, it has not (yet) gone as far as many other nations have. Mind you, we should be careful of straying too far into economic forecasting: When JK Galbraith (author of a bestselling book on the Wall Street crash of 1929) observed that 'the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable', he was using humour to make the point that economics is not a science. Epidemiology is somewhat more deeply rooted than that.

People in this Swedish nation of 10 million still visit libraries and pools, which remain open. People can be found sipping IPAs in restaurants and bars, though public gatherings are now limited to 50 people (down from 500). Skiing in Åre is now prohibited. Children still get up and go to elementary schools in the morning, although students over 16 have been encouraged to school at home, and Universities are shut. The government has also asked people to wash their hands frequently, encouraged remote work, asked people to keep apart from one another - no distance specified, and such an exhortation is as necessary in Sweden as would be instructions to eat pasta in Italy, or drink red wine in France! Finally, people who are over 70 have been asked to self-isolate, and people of all ages have been asked to self-isolate if they feel ill. Asked. Not told, ordered, instructed. Asked.

Essentially, instead of closing its economy, national leaders have asked its citizens to limit the spread of COVID-19 another way: by taking responsibility for their own actions, and help support their fellow citizens and the state in its battle.

"There are a few critical times in life when you must make sacrifices, not just for your own sake, but also for those around you, for your fellow human beings and for our country. That time is now," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven urged his people at the end of March 2020.

Needless to say, Sweden’s approach to the coronavirus has created a bit of stir. After all, the world’s economy has largely been crushed by government shutdowns and tens of millions have been put out of work. Who are these Swedes to think they know a better way? Arrogant? Foolish? Dancing their way towards death?

Which brings us back to Twitter. In recent days, influencers have begun to assert that Sweden is receiving its comeuppance. A case of premature schadenfreude from my perspective. Maybe there’s a club or self-help group for that?

“Sweden took a laissez-faire approach to COVID-19 while their neighbours shut down public life and sealed the borders,” one Manhattan Institute scholar observed on Twitter. “It looks like we're finally seeing the results.” [this comment tweeted just as the immense and growing impact of COVID-19 on the USA has become all too apparent]:

Data guru Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of the influential statistics site FiveThirtyEight, also claimed that Sweden was “paying the price” for its laissez-faire approach to the coronavirus.

Sweden took a laissez-faire approach to COVID-19 while their neighbours shut down public life and sealed the borders. It looks like we're finally seeing the results. (Graph is cumulative deaths: Sweden yellow, Denmark red, Norway blue; screenshot from /r/Denmark) pic.twitter.com/Jg1qfqo1Ei

— Connor Harris (@cmhrrs) March 30, 2020

Three European countries that took a laissez-faire, "herd immunity' approach to coronavirus early on, the UK, the Netherlands and Sweden, are paying the price for it. They reported, respectively, 563, 134 and 59 deaths today. https://t.co/9fFIJJjqhz

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 1, 2020

Sweden’s gambit was naturally going to invite reproach, re-probation and recrimination from an audience primed to cast stones. Humans may say they value non-conformity, but Voltaire was probably right when he observed the world does not.

“Our wretched species,” the noted French philosopher wrote, “is so made that those who walk on the well-trodden path always throw stones at those who are showing a new road.”

But do the data actually support the conclusion that Sweden’s leaders are getting people killed by not enforcing mass lock-downs? For now, that remains unclear, but there is no convincing evidence I can find to make that charge stick.

Now, any serious discussion on COVID-19 should be prefaced by noting that the data we have right now are incomplete, fluid, and mortally flawed. That said, bakers must use the ingredients they have. And right now, the data show that Sweden has one of the better infection fatality rates in Europe.

First, it makes little sense simply to compare aggregate deaths in Sweden to those in Denmark, Finland, and Norway, since Sweden has nearly double the population of those three countries. If we look at per capita figures*, we’ll see that Sweden currently has a death/1M population rate of 40/1M. (This means that, according to the best data we have, Sweden has suffered around 40 deaths for every one million residents - the UK rate today is about 55/M).

That rate is indeed higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland, which have rates of 24/1M, 11/1M, and 6/1M respectively, some of the best in Europe. However, data also show that Sweden’s fatality rate is actually much better than many of its European neighbors, including: France (100/1M), Switzerland (68/1M), Spain 234/1M, Italy (243/1M), Belgium (99/1M), the Netherlands (87/1M), the UK (55/1M), and Luxembourg (50/1M) - all based on 3rd or 4th April data.

In his tweet, Silver compared Sweden (and the UK and the Netherlands) to the USA, which at that time had one of the better fatality rates in the world (21/1M). The US of course started late to the party but is galloping ahead as fast as it possibly can to become “America First” in terms of total cases, and overall fatalities. He also conveniently leaves out nations such as Belgium, France, Spain, and of course Italy—which have some of the worst fatality rates in the world and were also among the first to go into lock-down to try to counter the melee-inducing miasma.

At present, it is fair to say that there’s not yet sufficient evidence to say that Sweden’s laissez-faire approach has been a failure. Or that it has been a success. We need three more months to pass by before we can see how this played out. We are unlikely to know the results of Sweden’s experiment—encouraging social responsibility instead of issuing government threats and force—for 12 weeks, if not longer. It’s possible the experiment will be a total disaster and cost many lives. It’s possible, perhaps even likely if deaths continue to rise, that Swedish political leaders will lose faith in the approach, and institute a more hard-line approach

However, the longer life in Sweden remains relatively normal—kids in schools, adults in pubs, an economy pumping on most cylinders while people take sensible precautions—without an explosion of deaths akin to those witnessed in Italy and Spain, the more we should be encouraged by, and supportive of, Sweden, not angrily and petulantly dismissive of its “temerity” and “naivity” in thinking for itself. Anders Tegnell - the State Epidemiologist - has been strongly identified with the current policies - a God-like figure in Sweden, revered and respected in a way no current politician could be. Graffiti currently show this ripely comedic phrase: All makt åt Tegnell, vår befriare. And politicians follow his advice to the letter, at least so far they have done, in part because of the complexities of the Swedish constitution meaning ruling by decree is hard to achieve, and also because of the consensus-driven coalition politics. Of course, there are other opinions, and substantial academic push-back has occurred in Sweden against the Tegnell approach.

Sweden has 10 million people, it is a huge country geographically (at 450,295 km² Sweden is the third-largest country in the European Union and the fifth largest country in Europe by area), with only a few major areas of population density (Malmo, Goteborg and Stockholm) – see Diagram 2 below, displaying population density and travel hub data.

People tend to be calm, measured, thoughtful and “obedient” in terms of reasonable requests by authorities; others might say they are also complacent, with a stable society and economy they have grown comfortable with, and accustomed to. Swedes tend to trust central government (they can rightly be healthily skeptical) rather than reject information automatically. Over 50% of Swedish households are single member ones. Most Swedes move out of the parental home aged 18-20 years of age. They embrace national identity numbers, novel technological approaches to commerce (cash largely being replaced by “Swish”-ing money between accounts), and have been in the forefront of voluntary micro-chipping (Evolution, Revolution, and the New Man: An ethnographic investigation into the constitution of the body and the self among microchipping communities in Sweden. Orlowski EJW. MSc Thesis, UCL, 2019 https://ejworlowski.com/). They have not been at war since 1814. Their last insurrection resulted in just 5 deaths, in 1931 (https://libcom.org/history/adalen-shootings-sweden-1931). If ever there were a reasonably ideal set-up to try to encourage not enforce societal changes, then Sweden is that place.

At its simplest, the major reason for the widespread “panic” measures to “shift the curve” in so many countries is the desperation of knowing that there are not enough hospital beds, ventilators, nurses and doctors to cope with a surge of people with virally-induced respiratory collapse (as clearly shown in the diagram). There's really no excuse for that lamentable, criminal, lack of preparedness. If in Sweden their local projections do not show this potential outcome, then avoiding a heavy-handed and largely economically-irreversible intervention designed to shift the curve seems only prudent. Moreover, as there is no current anti-viral medicine, no matter how much special advocacy we may hear from Professor Trump, and no vaccine for at least 18 months. Thus we need to understand that only nature can currently inoculate the population which brings us right back to the “herd immunity” concept we discussed earlier on. As the case fatality rate will likely emerge to be 0.5% (1 in 200 infections) by the end of the year, this natural immunity can likely safely be achieved by natural exposure without massive mortality ensuing. Imposing draconian lock-downs is one thing, but removing them (a “way out”) is highly vexed, without knowing reliably who is infected, infectious or immune. We cannot do that right now. Tegnell rightly says this is the difference between the tortoise (Sweden) and the hare (most of the rest of us) - this virus will spread into the population, and we will become immune (at least to this strain of the virus) - this will happen everywhere, maybe sooner, maybe later. But the economic devastation will not be the same. In the fable, the tortoise won the race while the hare ended up as a Winter stew.

If such a scenario does come to pass, that Sweden’s more measured approach is shown to be successful, then it should also precipitate some serious soul searching elsewhere. Why was the world so quick to employ force and the threat of force to impose mass shutdowns? Bold actions, yes, with the siren call to be seen to be doing something significant, but sometimes fools rush in where angels fear to tread. No plan survives contact with the enemy was the advice of the great German miltiary leader Field Marshal Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (Paraphrased in The Swordbearers : Studies in Supreme Command in the First World War (1963) by Correlli Barnett, p. 35) - apposite, as politicians – few of whom have ever served at the front line of more than a coffee chain - the world over currently vie with one another to use military metaphors to characterise their efforts.

There’s a tendency to believe that free markets and cooperation work, except in difficult or “complex” situations that call for more assertive means (code for a reflex instinctive authoritarian grab of liberties and rights). Leonard Edward Read, the founder of the Foundation for Economic Education, which was one of the first modern libertarian institutions of its kind in the United States, saw flaws in such thinking.

“The more complex the economy, society, or situation”, Read observed, “the more we should rely on the miraculous, self-adapting processes of men acting freely.”

Sweden has set out on a bespoke calibrated response path, as is its inalienable right as a sovereign nation. It is different from some other nations. This is not to my knowledge a competition, nor some sort of deathathon. There are specific reasons for their choices which can be justified, and should be defended. We should wish Sweden well, as we would want them to wish us well in our own different national struggles against this common malevolent foe.

David Goldsmith, MD, London 6th April 2020

Acknowledgements:

(1) Eric Orlowski, London

(2) This blog post is based on the articles https://fee.org/articles/could-sweden-s-laissez-faire-approach-to-the-coronavirus-actually-work/ and

(3) https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/uk-backed-off-on-herd-immunity-to-beat-coronavirus-we-need-it/

3113 Words

#covidー19 #covid2019 #sweden #sverige #anders tegnell #great britain #imperial college london

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livinginlandmarketing · 3 years

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Erika Chabarin enjoys an afternoon of bowling with her friends at Bowlero in Torrance on Tuesday April 6, 2021.(Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)

Is California spiking the football before the game is truly over?

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s declaration that the coronavirus outbreak could largely be over in his state by June sent local leaders, public health experts, doctors and business owners scrambling for thoughtful answers to that question.

Some questioned the wisdom of of the state’s sudden shift into the recovery fast lane, given the significant gains still needed to attain vaccination goals and the gradually slowing declines in caseload growth. Others, however, were confident that this was the appropriate decision for a state eager to break free of the fiercely debated coronavirus restrictions and the economic turmoil triggered by a bitter year of pandemic.

Gov. Gavin Newsom greets people as they wait in line to receive COVID-19 vaccines at 16th Street Seventh Day Adventist Church in San Bernardino on Friday, April 2, 2021. (Photo by Watchara Phomicinda, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

Soon after Newsom declared on Tuesday, April 6, that the state’s color-coded recovery tiers would be erased come June 15 — a mere 10 weeks from now and five days before summer’s dawn — Los Angeles County Health Director Barbara Ferrer held her own press conference Wednesday, hosting a session that replaced Newsom’s grin with reminders grim.

The governor spoke of “resuming everyday activities,” wide-open businesses and “common-sense risk-reduction measures.” In response, Ferrer raised the specter of the “double mutant,” potential super-spreaders and the enduring sting of winter’s deadly surge.

Iris Schmalix gets a bandage after receiving a vaccination shot at the COVID-19 Vaccination Center at California State University, Los Angeles in Los Angeles, Wed, Apr. 7, 2021. (Photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

“I don’t think anybody knows exactly what reopening looks like on June 15, except that with a lot more people vaccinated many restrictions on some of our activities will no longer be necessary,” Ferrer said.

Ferrer’s words were not stripped of optimism, however. Ferrer said L.A. County would follow the state’s guidelines, including the continuation of a mask mandate and social distancing, especially in schools and other settings with children. And she said she sincerely hopes the statistics — and the vaccine supply — will boost the governor’s buoyant vision.

“I think it’s completely possible if we move forward with this collective will to take care of each other from now until the time we get more and more people vaccinated,” Ferrer said Wednesday. “That’s what gives us that extra level of protection that allows us to get beyond the blueprint.”

Barbara Ferrer, Director of Public Health for Los Angeles County, at a press conference Friday, March 6, 2020. (Photo by David Crane, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

In Orange County, experts and officials aligned optimistically — but with their own caveats.

“I do believe that we’ll be in a much better place June 15 than we are even today,” said UC Irvine epidemiologist Andrew Noymer.

But eight weeks still feels like a long ways away to the Irvine professor.

“These things can kind of turn around,” Noymer said, noting that Michigan has seen an unnerving uptick in cases in the past month.

Restaurant, brewery and distillery owners received news that they will be able to fully open by June 15. They’re making plans to get operations a bit more back to normal. Wil Dee, owner of Haven Craft Kitchen + Bar in Orange, watches as California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a noontime coronavirus update in which guidelines to reopen dine-in restaurants were addressed, on Tuesday, May 12, 2020. (Photo by Mark Rightmire, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Dr. Roger Lewis, who leads the team at the L.A. County Department of Health Services that forecasts hospitalization demand based on coronavirus case rates, said that local modelling shows June 15 as a reasonable target for complete reopening given what they are seeing in the local models.

“Our models show that the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 is steadily going down and in fact we’re seeing some of the people hospitalized with positive COVID-19 are hospitalized for other reasons.”

Key numbers have now returned to levels last seen in March 2020 before the first surge in patients in April.

As of Wednesday, 572 people with COVID-19 were admitted to L.A. County hospitals with 136 in intensive care units. In Orange County, 114 were hospitalized with 29 in ICU. In Riverside, 106 were in hospitals with 20 in ICU. And in San Bernardino 103 COVID-19 patients were in hospitals with 25 in ICU.

Adjusted coronavirus case rates this week in L.A. County were 3.1 per 100,000 people. In Orange County it was 3.0 per 100,000. In Riverside it was 3.5 per 100,000. And in San Bernardino it was 3.4 per 100,000. To advance to the yellow tier, adjusted case rates must fall below 2.0 per 100,000 people.

Still, Ferrer cautioned that rates of declines have levelled off significantly. And she worried that more gatherings in the days ahead could kickstart increases in those pivotal categories.

At the top of mind for Lewis and many others are the growing number of variants, including a “double mutant” recently found by Stanford University researchers that could be especially virulent.

“While we have essentially informally good news locally, we would be foolish not to be paying very close attention to what’s happening in Michigan and other states,” Lewis said.

National public health officials have been watching increases in caseloads in Florida, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, too.

“We don’t live in a bubble here in L.A. County,” Ferrer said. “In order for us to hold on to the gains we’ve made, we have to be more diligent not less diligent.”

The June 15 deadline is ultimately contingent on two factors outlined by state health officials Tuesday: Case rates remaining low and vaccine rates increasing.

Statewide, more than 20 million vaccine doses have now been administered, at least 4 million of them in the state’s hardest-hit communities based on the Healthy Places Index.

For Dr. Lawrence Sher, an allergist-immunologist who leads the Palos Verdes Medical Group, said assessing the vaccine stats make him believe June 15 could be premature.

“Everybody is, of course, weary and looking forward to reopening. And the state is looking forward to that for multiple reasons,” he said.

Chilled syringes with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine wait for use at drive through vaccination site at Santa Ana College in Santa Ana, CA on Wednesday, February 17, 2021. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)

But he added: “Until we get children and adolescents vaccinated as well, we still can have problems down the road. We are still being a little more aggressive than most of us would like them to be.”

A key factor: Southern California’s millions of minors.

So far, the Pfizer vaccine is approved for residents 16 and older. Both the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson require recipients be at least 18. Drug makers, however, are currently in trials with children as young as six months old.

Sher expects it will take another few months for children 12 and older to be approved. Children younger may require six months or more, he said.

“They (drug companies) are all trying to go younger and younger,” Sher said. “They just have to get the approval and inoculate as many people as possible to prevent spread and mutations of the variants.”

The ultimate question: What constitutes herd immunity? Experts do not agree, Sher said.

Most place it anywhere from 70 to 80% vaccinated — or higher. It really depends, he said, on how effective the current vaccines prove to be at warding off variants. (A hint: So far they have fared pretty well, including against the U.K. variant, Sher said.)

Moving into the new green tier on June 15 “depends on us,” said Brandon Brown, a UC Riverside associate professor with a background in epidemiology.

“We need high vaccination rates, people practicing masking and physical distancing, we need to do better with (hard-to-reach) populations, and importantly keeping a close watch on the data to track the number of hospitalizations and cases including the new variants,” he wrote by email.

Brown worried about the summer break bringing increased travel and more people easing up on prevention measures, some of which became habits back when caseloads were soaring.

“Masking may need to be our ‘new normal,’ even after June 15,” Brown said.

Much progress has been made in getting vaccines into the field, with about 40% of the state’s adults getting at least one dose, said Bernadette Boden-Albala, dean of UC Irvine’s School of Public Health.

But she’d like to see that number at least doubled before people go back to a pre-pandemic “normal.”

Some of the groups already eligible for the vaccine — seniors, people with underlying health conditions and public-facing workers — were highly motivated to get inoculated because they face higher risks from infection, Boden-Albala said.

Fear of death can be a powerful motivator. It generally doesn’t resonate, however, among younger residents.

“What is concerning is that we don’t really understand the behavior in terms of vaccine uptake of young people,” she said

Also: “Vaccine hesitancy is going to rear its ugly head,” she added.

Noymer and Boden-Albala both worried that the end of the state’s tier system will make it harder to fine-tune the response based on what’s happening in each county.

However, Richard Carpiano, a public health scientist and medical sociologist at UC Riverside, doesn’t foresee the same problems.

Eliminating state tiers throws decision-making to the counties, which could decide to keep more things closed if their numbers go in the wrong direction, Carpiano said.

“The trick is, to make that work, there needs to be more detail around what the markers will be, what to be aiming for,” he said.

Alice Kao, owner of Sender One Climbing, Yoga, Fitness and Sender City. Kao, like so many others, have been deeply impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Chuck Bennett, Contributing Photographer)

Alice Kao, who owns Sender One Climbing, an indoor gym with a location near LAX airport, called the June 15 reopening date a hopeful sign.

More than 800,000 coronavirus vaccine shots given in San Bernardino County

Coronavirus case numbers continue to decrease in Riverside County

Ontario, Canada, issues stay-at-home order for 14M residents

Coronavirus tracker: California surpassed 20 million vaccinations administered as of April 6

Rufus Du Sol to play Banc of California Stadium after most coronavirus restrictions lift

But real recovery for business owners, jolted by the gut-punch delivered by months of restrictive health orders and the subsequent shutdowns, still seems far off.

“I celebrate that this hurdle to our business recovering will be behind us soon, but this is not the only hurdle,” Kao said. “Whether a business is able to fully recover will depend on a lot more factors than whether the government says we can. Going back to the way we were is going to take time.”

Kiran Savage-Sangwan, executive director of the California Pan Ethnic Health Network, which represents the interests of minorities, said their biggest concern was maintaining a clear focus on equity as the vaccine is rolled out.

While progress has been made on the unsettling gaps detected in the initial months, revealing that communities of color were bearing an inequitable burden, Savage-Sangwan said more needs to be done to reach those hardest him.

“The larger question is who has access to the vaccine supply and is it equitably distributed,” she said.

“The state has made great strides in that area but when we look at the data it’s clear we have to do more.”

Staff writers Jeff Horseman and Ryan Carter contributed to this report.

-on April 07, 2021 at 09:48AM by David Rosenfeld, Alicia Robinson

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thedivinefish · 3 years

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TGIWednesday and a clearing for family members

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It was strange not being able to don the E Bunny costume that has become an annual tradition for me at our local neighborhood Easter party. Well hopefully when we reach “herd immunity!” It brought up longings and remembrances of my brother, father and now mother who are no longer here but in spirit and I feel their presence in one form or another every day! My brother tends to show up whenever I deal with a client who’s main challenge is addiction. My dad shows up whenever I make best efforts with a client who may be a little too adventurous/think daredevil cliff hanging/survival shows! And of course when I think about or see butterflies, something of beauty or merely when my girlfriend bakes cookies, I am reminded of the tenderness and unconditional love of my mom. There were times throughout the holy week when I felt sadness or loneliness which is not uncommon, but it has now washed past me and turned into a feeling of being grounded, safe and peaceful. We all experience ranges of emotions dealing with family members alive or in Spirit and so we’ll dedicate this month of TGIW newsletters to family.

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~ CLEARING FOR FAMILY MEMBERS ~ I believe, think, know and feel that as I pray for family members that I benefit as well. I am ready, willing and able to put any past family disagreements where they belong, in the past. I know, when, where, how and why to just let go and let God and allow my family members to be themselves. And instead of trying to change them, I am changing my attitude and how I look at them so that I can obtain and maintain more peace. I am asking in all languages and throughout all time lines and so it is.

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Our next end of the month Zoom event will be on Wed. April 28th and this month's theme will be FAMILY Some say FAMILY is an acronym for F'd And Mainly Interested In Limiting You :) What was growing up like for you? Were Mom, Dad, Siblings horrible then and nice now or vice- versa? We’ll clear any family issues that may be limiting or blocking you. Browse the full catalog of past events here.

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Tell the Fish - 365 Daily Inspirations and Affirmations - by Jimmy Mack APRIL 7th "Today I will let loose of all control. I will enter into an agreement with my Guides, Angels & God as I know it and ask for something different, unusual and exciting to show up. I will relinquish control and while remaining free, I will realize that what I had been searching for was there all along. Keep the faith and all things moving forward.. this is a part of life...you are not powerless, you are powerful, you are not frail, you are strong and you can access unlimited power."

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Nightly prayers include COVID-19. Each night we work on scrambling the frequency for everyone on the prayer list. Your name will be added to a special VIP Prayer list where Jimmy will use his intelligent computer software, src4you which runs 24/7, to delete the negative and increase the strength of the positive creating a higher probability of favorable outcomes for you.

In addition, throughout the full 30-days, Jimmy will be dialing into your energetic signature each day upon rising and make certain that you are a clear yes, unclear to no and running forward before you start your day. He is doing the heavy lifting for you around 3am NY time while most of you are asleep in order to smooth out your way and increase your most favorable life outcomes.

The 30-day service is now being offered exclusively and you also have the option of selecting an ongoing subscription ($95/month) which is managed through PayPal only.

Upon written email request, for each new order we offer a one-time email analysis via the intelligent healing software that Jimmy uses on your behalf. Most clients have had amazing results and outcomes!

You can add yourself and those living in your immediate household and yes you can include pets! Merely include everyone’s names and Jimmy will add them to his daily prayers.

You can run this monthly and stop at any time after the 30 days is up, you will have the opportunity to renew and update your list each month but are under no obligation. I believe you will experience magical transformations and make progress every day!

For those who aren't familiar, below is a list of the 30+ audios in the MyBeliefWorks series.... Find a topic that addresses your issue(s), click on the link to read more. We had a lot of help downloading & channeling these over the years & they keep getting better. Don't forget... you can share these with your immediate friends and family.

Receiving Abundance Freedom from Abuse Overcoming Addiction Body Scan: Head to Toe Healing Experiencing Bountiful Harvest Igniting Creative Spark Daily GPS Reset Releasing Dark Energies/Fears Crossroads -Decision Making Diet & Exercise Support Education & Learning Support 20%OFF Healing Family Relationships Attracting a Financial Windfall Gold Coin: More Money in All Forms Healing Body Disorders Healing Mental Stress

Relieving Holiday Stress Increasing Intuition 20%OFF Easing IRS Stress & Taxes Finding Love & Romance Positive Money Mindset Moving Forward from Past Chronic Pain Relief Pet Healing Support Improving Sales & Success Improving Sex Improving Sleep Traveling with Ease Work & Career Success Weight Loss Support Restoring Youth & Vitality

**Can't See The Full Email? Click Here to View Online**

Go deep sea "fishing" with Jimmy!

Level 1 is open to ANYONE at anytime! Click here to watch the Mastery video playlist

The Certificate of Mastery Program includes 2 best-selling ebooks and 2 clearing audios plus written & video instructions, AND one-on-one time with Jimmy ALL for about the cost of a single 1-hr session! This online course is for anyone who is familiar with OR new to "fishing" and is ready to dive into the deep end & get results that are beyond the ordinary! It includes The Tackle Box & The Dowser's Handbook ebooks PLUS 2 MP3s "Clearing Dark Energies" & "Increasing Your Intuition" to help clear, strengthen and prepare your energy field for optimal “fishing” results. This is a work-at-your-own-pace curriculum that will TEACH & CLEAR you at the same time! In under 2wks you will be finished with the program and ready to fish on your own with greater results! Level II offers Practitioner Certification for those who qualify.

LEARN ABOUT CERTIFICATION HERE

TGIFunny

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Jimmy Mack | Appointments Skype: Jimmy.Mack55 Clearwater Florida USA Book a 15 minute session Book a 30 minute session Book a 60 minute session Transformational Healing of Body, Mind & Spirit, People, Places, Pets & Situations! Access the My Liquid Fish™ Starter Kit (*Updated December 2020) Audio MP3 Downloads and books to improve your life! Get Certified in My Liquid Fish™Change Made Simple™ Watch Free Videos on YouTube Radio Show Archives Shop for Supplements http://www.jimmymackhealingshop.com www.jimmymackhealing.com Copyright ©1998-2021 All Rights Reserved

-------------------------------------------------- TGIW newsletter managed by: Sandy Bidinger Digital Marketing Specialist at SMBeConnected Solutions www.smbeconnected.com

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Our mailing address is: Clearwater Florida 33756 USA

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divinefishingtips · 3 years

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TGIWednesday and a clearing for family members

TGIWednesday News

TGIWednesday Download

Live Show Appearances

YOU WEALTH REVOLUTION hosted by Darius

New Energy, New You™! New Season Happening Now! It's the biggest energy healing event of the year - best of all it’s FREE from your home!

Watch and listen to hundreds of Radio Show replays for FREE here in the archives: https://thejimmymackhealingshow.com/

Monthly MySwitchWorks Zoom Event

From the Fish Box

Book A Session in Tampa

SWANN HOLISTIC HEALTH SOLUTIONS

Jimmy Mack will be offering sessions at Dr. Charla Tempone’s office at Swann Holistic Health Solutions The next opportunity to see Jimmy at Charla's Tampa office is: FRIDAY APRIL 30th from 10-4pm

403 S. Habana Ave. Tampa, FL 33609 Just south of Azeele next to Skin Savvy http://www.ctholisticsolutions.com

Please call their office directly at ☎️ (813) 873-7773 in order to get on the schedule for 15-minutes $38 or 30-minutes $68. If you’re new to working with me, I suggest you schedule 30 minutes.

Fish Food

The Daily Bread To Feed The Fish

Receive 24/7 Prayers from Jimmy

The 30-day service is now being offered exclusively and you also have the option of selecting an ongoing subscription ($95/month) which is managed through PayPal only.

You can add yourself and those living in your immediate household and yes you can include pets! Merely include everyone’s names and Jimmy will add them to his daily prayers.

**Can't See The Full Email? Click Here to View Online**

Go deep sea "fishing" with Jimmy!

Level 1 is open to ANYONE at anytime! Click here to watch the Mastery video playlist

LEARN ABOUT CERTIFICATION HERE

TGIFunny

Forward

-------------------------------------------------- TGIW newsletter managed by: Sandy Bidinger Digital Marketing Specialist at SMBeConnected Solutions www.smbeconnected.com

Stay connected!

Our mailing address is: Clearwater Florida 33756 USA

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365dailyaffirmations · 3 years

Text

TGIWednesday and a clearing for family members

TGIWednesday News

TGIWednesday Download

Live Show Appearances

YOU WEALTH REVOLUTION hosted by Darius

New Energy, New You™! New Season Happening Now! It's the biggest energy healing event of the year - best of all it’s FREE from your home!

Watch and listen to hundreds of Radio Show replays for FREE here in the archives: https://thejimmymackhealingshow.com/

Monthly MySwitchWorks Zoom Event

From the Fish Box

Book A Session in Tampa

SWANN HOLISTIC HEALTH SOLUTIONS

Jimmy Mack will be offering sessions at Dr. Charla Tempone’s office at Swann Holistic Health Solutions The next opportunity to see Jimmy at Charla's Tampa office is: FRIDAY APRIL 30th from 10-4pm

403 S. Habana Ave. Tampa, FL 33609 Just south of Azeele next to Skin Savvy http://www.ctholisticsolutions.com

Please call their office directly at ☎️ (813) 873-7773 in order to get on the schedule for 15-minutes $38 or 30-minutes $68. If you’re new to working with me, I suggest you schedule 30 minutes.

Fish Food

The Daily Bread To Feed The Fish

Receive 24/7 Prayers from Jimmy

The 30-day service is now being offered exclusively and you also have the option of selecting an ongoing subscription ($95/month) which is managed through PayPal only.

You can add yourself and those living in your immediate household and yes you can include pets! Merely include everyone’s names and Jimmy will add them to his daily prayers.

**Can't See The Full Email? Click Here to View Online**

Go deep sea "fishing" with Jimmy!

Level 1 is open to ANYONE at anytime! Click here to watch the Mastery video playlist

LEARN ABOUT CERTIFICATION HERE

TGIFunny

Forward

-------------------------------------------------- TGIW newsletter managed by: Sandy Bidinger Digital Marketing Specialist at SMBeConnected Solutions www.smbeconnected.com

Stay connected!

Our mailing address is: Clearwater Florida 33756 USA

0 notes

advancedthetapractitioner · 3 years

Text

TGIWednesday and a clearing for family members

TGIWednesday News

TGIWednesday Download

Live Show Appearances

YOU WEALTH REVOLUTION hosted by Darius

New Energy, New You™! New Season Happening Now! It's the biggest energy healing event of the year - best of all it’s FREE from your home!

Watch and listen to hundreds of Radio Show replays for FREE here in the archives: https://thejimmymackhealingshow.com/

Monthly MySwitchWorks Zoom Event

From the Fish Box

Book A Session in Tampa

SWANN HOLISTIC HEALTH SOLUTIONS

Jimmy Mack will be offering sessions at Dr. Charla Tempone’s office at Swann Holistic Health Solutions The next opportunity to see Jimmy at Charla's Tampa office is: FRIDAY APRIL 30th from 10-4pm

403 S. Habana Ave. Tampa, FL 33609 Just south of Azeele next to Skin Savvy http://www.ctholisticsolutions.com

Please call their office directly at ☎️ (813) 873-7773 in order to get on the schedule for 15-minutes $38 or 30-minutes $68. If you’re new to working with me, I suggest you schedule 30 minutes.

Fish Food

The Daily Bread To Feed The Fish

Receive 24/7 Prayers from Jimmy

The 30-day service is now being offered exclusively and you also have the option of selecting an ongoing subscription ($95/month) which is managed through PayPal only.

You can add yourself and those living in your immediate household and yes you can include pets! Merely include everyone’s names and Jimmy will add them to his daily prayers.

**Can't See The Full Email? Click Here to View Online**

Go deep sea "fishing" with Jimmy!

Level 1 is open to ANYONE at anytime! Click here to watch the Mastery video playlist

LEARN ABOUT CERTIFICATION HERE

TGIFunny

Forward

-------------------------------------------------- TGIW newsletter managed by: Sandy Bidinger Digital Marketing Specialist at SMBeConnected Solutions www.smbeconnected.com

Stay connected!

Our mailing address is: Clearwater Florida 33756 USA

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billehrman · 3 years

Text

Game Changer at the Fed

The yield curve continues to steepen as the economy improves. We continue to get our arms around the coronavirus testing the Fed's resolve to maintain its overly accommodative stance. Powell has repeatedly stated that the Fed has shifted its policy to respond after the fact rather than act pre-emptively anticipating change. The simple truth is that the Fed's view on inflation has been too high and wrong for so long and now believes that a near-term spike in inflation will only be transitory and then settle down to around the fed target of 2%. They will be letting the economy run hot. We agree!

Long-term inflation will stay contained due to global competitiveness, significant technological advancements boosting productivity, and the continued rise of disruptors everywhere, pressuring prices.

A steepening yield curve as an economy improves is the norm and good news. It is much better than having a flat or inverted yield curve here and negative rates abroad. The dilemma for the market is that we will not, nor the Fed, know that its policy shift responding after the fact was correct until well into the recovery, so expect more market volatility around all markets. While we still believe that the overall market is undervalued, we remain focused on economically sensitive companies selling below intrinsic value where positive leverage will lead to earnings gains well above consensus, significant dividend hikes, large stock buybacks, and much higher ROI. We are also investing in areas where the government will be adding financial and regulatory support such as EV, 5/6G, green technology, infrastructure, agriculture, and bringing supply chains back to America. We continue to avoid defensive companies that thrived during the pandemic, highfliers, long-duration assets as discount rates increase, lowering multiples/time frames, and all bonds.

Let's focus on investors' key areas: the virus, Fed and fiscal policy, and the economy.

News on the coronavirus continues to get better each week domestically, with problems remaining abroad, mainly in Europe, as spikes have been seen in Germany, Italy, and France. In the U.S., more people have received at least one dose than tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 116 million doses have been given, and we are now averaging over 2.5 million doses per day. Supply and logistics continue to improve such that all Americans could be vaccinated by the end of May, creating herd immunity which, of course, means that opening can accelerate further, and the recovery can be sustainable. Unfortunately, the story in the EU is not nearly as good, with only 8.3% of the population having received one dose compared to 23% in the U.S. We are confident that the supply of vaccines will be in the billions by the late fall and that boosters will be available before 2022 if needed.

The Fed met last week and is maintaining its overly accommodative stance. Powell's follow-up news conference was very informative, where Powell stated unequivocally that "the fundamental change in our framework is that we're not going to act pre-emptively based on forecasts for the most part and we're going to wait to see actual data." The Fed remains focused on the high level of unemployment which will not fall back to 3.5% until the end of 2023, their forecast. Inflation is expected to push above 2% this year to fall closer to the target in 2022 and 2023. Powell finished by saying that "the Fed can run the economy hot to deliver a more inclusive recovery without suffering a sustained increase in prices." That says it all, and we will not know, nor will the Fed, whether its policy change was right for several more years. The Fed maintained its near-zero rate policy while continuing to buy $120 billion per month of various bonds. Could the Fed shift its buying to Operation Twist, focusing on buying longer-duration bonds suppressing longer rates? It can happen, but not for some time.

New stimulus checks went out last week on top of nearly $700 billion still not spent from the January $1 trillion stimulus program. Can you imagine all the excess liquidity already in the financial system with much more coming supported by the recent $1.9 trillion plan? On top of it, you have the government planning a multi-trillion demand-focused stimulus plan focused on infrastructure, green technology, increased wireless/data access, and strengthening our supply lines. Biden is concentrated on "Build Back Better" to strengthen our country to meet and beat the challenges ahead. Putting the coronavirus in the rearview mirror will provide the most stimulus to the economy, which will be sustainable for years to come, supported by at least $5 trillion in additional stimulus that will flow into 2022 and even 2023. Now you can understand why the Fed increased its growth forecasts meaningfully for the next several years. And they will let the economy run hot. We continue to forecast a supercharged recovery extending well into 2023.

February's economic data has been hurt by the severe weather in many parts of the country. Shortages of semis and supply line issues have also penalized growth, but all of that will be transitory. For instance, retail sales fell 3% in February after increasing 7.6% in January; industrial production dropped 2.2% in February after increasing by 1.2% in December and January; capacity utilization fell to 73.8 in February, down from 75.5 in January; inventory rose 0.3% in January while sales increased 4.7% further reducing the I/S ratio to 1.26, a near-record low; unemployment claims rose to 770,000 last week, and Feb leading indicators increased to 110.5. We expect growth to pick up sequentially and quite dramatically as we move through the year well into 2022.

Investment Conclusions

Fed Chairman Powell's comments last week regarding shifting its policy to respond after the fact rather than act pre-emptively said it all. The Fed will do everything in its power to support a rapidly growing economy until unemployment falls below 3.5%, which won't happen until sometime in 2023, and inflation sustains above the Fed target of 2% for many months after an expected near-term spike. We expect long-term inflation to stay anchored around 2% for all the reasons stated earlier. The Fed just removed the Supplemental Leverage Ratio rule that permitted banks during the pandemic not to set aside capital against Treasuries and deposits against losses. While it may be a perceived negative, banks are so overcapitalized that we do not see any long-term impact from this change. The Fed intends on proposing new rules and changes to the so-called supplementary levels as bank reserves are so high. Removal of SLR is a clear indication that the Fed is very optimistic about the future of our economy and the financial strength of our banking system.

We expect the economy to be supercharged as we continue to put the virus in the rearview mirror, as we add trillions of additional stimulus hit the economy, pent up demand is filled, inventories are built. Capital spending accelerates supported by government programs and the need to bring the supply chain in critical areas back to the states. Earnings growth for economically sensitive companies will be surprisingly strong as operating margins increase as corporations do more with less, use technology to boost productivity, simplify/shorten supply chains and have pricing power as utilization rates rise.

We remain optimistic that the market has 15+% upside+ dividends over the next 18 months, driven by earnings growth. Our portfolios emphasize companies tied to the economy and areas mentioned above that the government will support rebuilding America to make it stronger and better: global capital goods/industrials/machinery, transportation, industrial/ag commodities, financial, technology, and many unique situations. We would continue to avoid defensive companies, highfliers, and bonds of all durations.

Our investment webinar will be held on Monday, March 22nd, at 8:30 am EST. You can join by entering https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser or dialing +646 558 8656 and entering the password 9179217852.

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prosperite LLC

[email protected]

917-951-4139

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ericvick · 3 years

Photo

We have to have a system to pace up vaccinations the following is one solution to look at

Covid, the No. 1 killer in the state, is preventable with a vaccine. Massachusetts is just one of the world’s fantastic facilities of medication and research, home to 4 remarkable health-related educational institutions and various of the world’s biggest teaching hospitals, together with hundreds of companies that practice well being treatment. Some 18 percent of the positions in metropolitan Boston are in health care.

Nonetheless, as of Feb. 1, Massachusetts was rated 41st of the 50 states in share of dispersed vaccines that have been administered. The Centers for Ailment Command reported that the point out had obtained 1,060,900 vaccine doses as of Jan. 31, but had applied only 57 % of that allocation in putting 608,947 doses in people’s arms. Our vaccination level is decreased than 40 other states. Records present that 6.7 p.c of Massachusetts people have had one particular dose 1.7 p.c have concluded the two, and 451,953 doses ended up however to be employed.

We’re in a race to get the vaccine below management, to cut down the option of the virus to mutate and be more virulent, to avoid the unfold of the virus to tens of millions and protect against the deaths of quite a few far more hundreds. The chief way to do that is to get the vaccine into people’s arms as quickly as probable so we can build to herd immunity rapidly.

Assuming that Gov. Baker and Secretary Sudders can create adequate vaccination web sites and workers them, and that President Biden can produce sufficient vaccine for each individual American, here’s a program to increase our state’s inadequate national standing:

Produce a deadline for vaccinating every person. We value what we evaluate. We have to have to pick out our finish line date, then determine how numerous doses have to have to be administered just about every 7 days, and keep ourselves accountable for reaching that aim, with frequent reports to the Commonwealth. I suggest August 30, 2021. It is formidable, but achievable.

Be flexible with our plan. Indeed, we really should be vaccinating people in superior danger groups to start with, but that does not necessarily mean that we hold out until we’re completed with people categories to go into the future kinds. Some have described this difficulty by citing how airlines board: We contact team A very first, but really don’t wait for each individual single man or woman in A to be seated right before proceeding to B, or just about every aircraft would depart late. Accomplishing our vaccination goal will demand performance, which implies possessing plenty of adaptability in our plan to make certain that there are more than enough sufferers in line, even if it means opening afterwards groups earlier.

Offer option systems to interact individuals. We want to make it simple. It would be so practical to have a unified wellbeing care process, these kinds of as in the United Kingdom, but we never. Our fragmented system necessitates us to have equally site appointments and cellphone-in ones, and as lots of neighborhood vaccine internet sites and mega web pages as needed. We can talk to physicians to retrieve vaccine from central repositories for administration to their patients, set up as several mega and local community web pages as necessary, and speedily educate more health and fitness workers to give the doses.

Tailor the information and the outreach. The Commonwealth requires an outstanding community data marketing campaign to assure all those who have doubts about the vaccine that they are safe and sound. Folks of coloration have been victimized by health-related experimentation in the past, and many have every cause to concern having the vaccine. Drawing on the huge talent pool of people today of coloration in management roles in medicine, clergy, schooling, politics, and science who labored to produce the vaccine, a community information and facts campaign would help the group realize that the vaccine is about the basic safety of their families and communities. We will need these leaders completely supported and engaged in creating and delivering this campaign.

There’s a great deal using on finding this accomplished as soon as doable. Our economic system will only rebound when the virus is dispatched and schools and childcare services can be entirely open. Our collective mental well being could undoubtedly use a victory.

That suggests that we can not miss any possibility to vaccinate. The very last week of January had 111,901 doses administered in Massachusetts. We need to have 420,000 for every week, setting up Feb. 1. The race is on.

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#pace #Solution #system #vaccinations

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