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severedhues · 3 years

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Going back to your post about calculating BTR showverse ages (first of all it was amazing btw) I was wondering, did you believe that the years were accurate? Like did it all take place in the year of when the episodes premiered or did they have different canonically years like some tv shows do?

Ahhh thank you!! 💖✨To be honest, I don’t think the years were completely accurate, but I think it can go both ways depending on how you look at it. When I was making the BTR showverse ages post, I was basing it off of the episode release dates—call it chronological order if you will—mainly because it made the most sense to me. After all, growing up I thought I was just watching a bunch of “high school” hockey players from Minnesota making music while getting into wacky hijinks.

And for some episodes, the chronological thing kinda worked! In “Big Time Tests”, which was released on June 27, 2013, Logan takes the MCAT exam. According to this website, the summer session for the MCAT takes place between June and July. Although, assuming that Logan was “graduating” from high school, I don’t think one can go straight to med school from high school without earning a bachelor’s degree first class (unless there are special programs out there that do offer that, but then again, idk jack abt anything and that’s just my overthinking brain for you lol). Chronological order should make the most sense, because it’s easier for our brains to comprehend/its what our brain defaults to, right?

But then we hit a point in the BTR showverse where chronological order gets questioned, and I get confused and ask myself, “so are the guys still in high school or....?” I mean, I know the guys were in their 20s when they were casted to play 15-16 year olds, but season 4/a little bit of season 3 hit a point where they all looked like borderline college students. Maybe it was around the time James and Kendall had similar haircuts. And apart of me sometimes questioned whether or not they were (at least at the time season 3 and 4) still in high school.

Thus, here are some reasons (not saying that they’re good ones) why I think BTR could’ve had different canonical years:

In “Welcome Back Big Time”, the guys are to perform at Rocktoberfest, which judging by the name, we could infer that it takes place in October. According to the BTR wiki, the original air date for this episode was September 25, 2010 (USA) and January 28, 2011 (CAN).

The last time the show has shown the guys in a school setting was “Green Time Rush”. And for the rest of the show (minus Big Time Prom Kings i guess?), the guys are never shown in school/doing school activities again. Did they finish their high school studies early? Were we supposed to assume that the showverse guys were continuing their studies behind the scenes? I don’t know, chief! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Either way, we really got deprived of a “Big Time Graduation” episode 😔

In the How To Rock crossover episode with BTR, “How to Win an Election” (which aired about two months before season 3 of BTR premiered), main protagonist Kacey asks the guys, “Don’t you guys remember what high school was like?” Later on towards the end of the episode one of the guys (I think it was Logan?) said, “We talked it over and we ended up sharing our embarrassing high school stories.” This implies the guys have finished their high school studies and are no longer attending school. Whereas, in their show, the guys are still (questionably) portrayed as high schoolers. But then again, we don’t know if the guys were playing their showverse characters or as their irl selves.

At the end of a day, I’m just an overthinker of a fan over-analyzing one of my favorites TV shows lol. So who’s to say what’s right and what’s wrong? What’s canon and what’s theory? I just find it fascinating to find the logic in a show that has left me with many unanswered questions. Like how come Carlos was affected by Gustavo’s shock system in “Big Time Strikes”, but in “Big Time Break Up” the metal plate in his head makes him immune to the shocks from Logan and Kelly? Or what happened to Stephanie King and why did no one acknowledge her disappearance after “Big Time Dance”? And just like the amount of licks it gets to the center of a tootsie pop: no one really knows.

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littlemessyjessi · 3 years

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Torn: Remus Lupin Story: PS OC:Chapter Four: Ninja

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Remus Lupin Imagine Turned Story

Re-Written and Edit of an old story of mine I had on Mibba that deserved some more love and attention, lol.

Remus Lupin x Vega Black (OC, OFC, PLUS SIZE OC, PLUS SIZE OFC)

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"Blame it or praise it, there is no denying the wild horse in us."

- Virginia Woolf

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Song that inspired the vibe, lol. I literally listening to this while writing it.

“Get Off of My Back”- Bryan Adams

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It had been three weeks since the incident and Vega was once again in the hospital wing. Not for injuries this time but instead helping Madame Pompfrey. During her brief stay, she found many things about the Healer that interested her. When a seventh year Quidditch scrimmage went wrong and poor Jeanette McDonald was carried in almost unconscious...she jumped into action clearing a bed and getting Madame Pompfrey's kit. Vega, it would seem, was a rather natural at this kind of thing. She assessed the situation, analyzed the details and sought out the proper ingredients...all while jumping into action very quickly and keeping a cool head. For a first year, it was rather impressive and Madame Pompfrey had offered her a spot on the Early Healers program. It was rather odd for a first year to do this but she seemed to have natural talent. After her discussing her outstanding work in Potions with Professor Slughorn along with her impressive talents in Charms and Transfiguration according to the other Professors....Madame Pompfrey felt it a true waste to not at least entertain the idea. Vega had jumped at the offer. It was all very exciting to her and though it was stressful...it was extremely rewarding. She felt a sort of passion for it as she worked as assistant to the school's resident Healer. However, at that moment in time...something sour had settled in her stomach because Remus Lupin was laying in the hospital bed looking extremely worse for wear. Madame Pompfrey had initially told her that she would deal with it alone but upon seeing his wounds...she called for the quiet girl. "Pat the wounds." she said quietly, as to not waking the sleeping boy. Vega steadied her hand as she cleaned the blood from her friend's chest. "What goes on here is secret." Madame Pomfrey told her. "What you see and come to know stays here. Do you understand?" The young Black nodded. "They are not our secrets to tell, Miss Black." she said and Vega simply nodded. She didn't know what had happened to Remus but she had an inkling of a thought. She desperately hoped she was wrong but she was far too smart and read far to many books to believe that. She had her suspicions, of course. She was very observant and had noticed little ticks of his that tipped her off. But she just...she didn't want to believe it. But after this. The full moon, the horrible sounds last night and now here he was looking almost ripped to shreds....she'd be stupid if she denied it. Remus Lupin...was a werewolf. She finished him up with Madame Pompfrey before helping the woman with the necessary potions. The Healer told her she was finished for the night and to go and get some supper at the Great Hall. She was tired but a violent rumble from her stomach told her that bed was not an option at the moment. She was almost there when she heard a familiar laugh behind her. "Well, if it isn't the itty bitty baby Black." Vega bit her tongue. Bellatrix.

She really wasn’t in the mood for Bella and her childish antics.

Not today.

Not after the week she’d had.

Not after she’d spent so much time with her own hands drench in Remus’ blood.

Not after she’d spent so much time in her head worried about him. "I believe Regulus is less cowardly than you are...and he's not even in school yet." she teased. Vega turned to stare at her cousin.

“Go away Bella.” she said. “I’m not in the mood.”

“Oooh, grown a bit of backbone have you?” Bella sneered. “Good, it’ll be all the more fun to break.”

“Get off my of my back, Bellatrix!” Vega snapped as her anger bubbled. Bellatrix was flanked by her Lucius Malfoy and Rodolphous Lestrange. "What the matter?" she taunted. "Scared? Maybe we should sing a song for the baby? What was it that the blood traitor used to sing? Oh, yes! Row, row, row your boat...gently down the stream...scarily, scarily, scarily, scarily, life is but a SCREAM!" Vega’s stomach churned as Bella turned the innocent song her father used to sing to her into something sour and dark. Her cousin cackled manically. "She's scared boys!" she erupted. "Look, she's shaking!" But Vega was not scared. She was angry. She was shaking because she was trying to keep from drawing her wand. Bella smirked, "Get her, boys." Vega braced herself for a moment before something washed over her...and she changed.

She was done.

So done. Rodolphus was first and when he came at her she pulled her foot back and landed a hard kick to his chest before using the force to spin around and kick Lucius in the nose....effectively breaking it. Bella snarled at this unexpected rebellion and drew her wand. However, Vega was quicker and bellowed, "Expelliarmus!" Bella's wand flew into her hand and she gasped. Vega arched a dark brow at her cousin and said, "One more move and I snap it in half." Bella almost growled but there was still clear shock on her features at this unbridled attack. "I'll get you for this you little blood traitor! We're cousins!" Bella snapped. "Yes, we are and you've done nothing but torment me since the day you met me. I've had enough. The next time, I won't be as lenient, Bella. The next time...it'll hurt." Vega told her very seriously. "Now get out of my face.” Lucius and Roldophus skittered up to their feet, the blond leaning on the other for support as his nose bled profusely. "My wand." Bella pressed. "I'll give it to Andromeda. She can decide if you get it back." Vega told her, staring her down with stormy grey eyes. "You little-!" "Or would you prefer I take it to Slughorn...or perhaps Dumbledore?" she challenged and Bella bit her tongue before sneering and heading off after her friends. Vega watched them go and let out a deep breath only to tense up when something grabbed her. Only...she couldn't see what it was. Something had her....that she could tell...and it felt soft. She hesitantly reached out and grabbed it. It crumbled in her hand and she pulled it off to reveal a disheveled, well more so than usual, James Potter. "James!" she gasped. "What the?" "Vega, that was brilliant!" he exclaimed as he hoisted the little girl up and twirled her around in the air. "Sirius, will be so proud!" "Don't tell him!" she rushed out with panic in her eyes. "Tell me what?" She looked past James' horribly messy dark hair to see her cousin looking at her with an odd look on his face. He looked between her and James' rather compromising position with an arched brow that mirrored Vega’s own almost identically. It seemed to dawn on them and they backed away from each other. "So?" he pressed, curiosity clear in his grey eyes. "What wasn't I supposed to know?" Both were silent. James was dying to tell his friend...but he hated to betray Vega like that if she really, truly didn't want him to know. "James." Sirius pressed, looking his friend in the eye. Well, he tried to. If James hadn't been avoiding eye contact like the plague. Sirius glanced at Vega again before his eyes drifted down to her hand. A grin overtook his features. "Is that Bella's wand?" Vega sighed sensing the inevitable.

"Yes!" James exploded. "It was amazing, Sirius! She was incredible! Like some kind of ninja! She broke Malfoy's NOSE! And she disarmed Bella and send them on their way, sassed them into oblivion!" Sirius grinned but then his eyes narrowed, "And how do you know this?" James shrugged and held up his Invisibility Cloak. "And you were just doing to watch?" Sirius pressed, irritation growing at the prospect of James standing by and letting Vega get hurt.

Again. "Well, I was gonna step in if she needed help but Andromeda did say to let her fight her own battles....and she was great!" he said before looking at Vega. "It was really impressive." Her cheeks flushed red. "I'll see you later." she told them. "I'm starving and if I don't eat something soon, I might attack someone." James dramatically cleared the way, "By all means, Great Ninja of Ravenclaw. Lead us to the bountiful mountains of food. I, Sir James Potter of Gryffindor, shall accompany you into the journey of badassedness in exchange for lessons on your mad skills." Vega and Sirius cracked up at that and the three of them headed off to the Great Hall for something to eat. She headed for Ravenclaw but instead Sirius pulled her over to sit with them. "Sirius." she pressed. "I'm not in your house." "It's fine." he rolled his eyes. "Besides...I want to hear how you smashed stupid Malfoy's nose to smithereens." She scowled at him making him smirk. "You tell me or I'll have James tell it...and the more he repeats things...the wilder they get." he warned her as the very boy in question was currently retelling the story to an older Gryffindor...this time saying that Rowan was a jujitsu master.

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Chapter Three

Chapter Five

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Hello my lovelies!

Woooo child! We got some friction! How do we feel about Vega fiesty retaliation? I’d love to hear from you!

Here is another rewrite of a previous work of mine that I had on Mibba! I did a bit of reworking on the character, her name and her backstory because I just felt like she deserved more! I would love to know what you think of little Vega!

So please comment, reblog with thoughts and/or smash the ask box! I do so love hearing from you my loves!

Love,

Kenny

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@frankie2902

@pleasantdreamqueen @becrazy–beyou

@littledeadrottinghood @blackirisposts

@therealmrshale @woodworthti666@thegreatirene@fanfictionandjunk

@angelus320

@alanlizzingtonshore@buriednurbckyrd@disneymarina@tubbypeachwriting

@sullybot @georgiagrl1990 @whenallsaidanddone

@mischiefnevermanaged94 @inumorph

@congurl

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@qtmeryr

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@tnupsweetpie

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@blackirisposts

@maggyme13

@amethyst09

@ibenkastberg

@fanfics1717 @mrscasnovak

@thickemadame @babygirl-barnes

@theladyofmasks @aengsty

@kalliravenne

@witchygagirl

@gruffle1

@writtenbywolfie

@kribbydahhufflepuff

@leah-halliwell92

@thelastwildangel

@silent-browser

@simplymagical@simplymagicalwritings

@lilacflicker

@malulucifer

@minxyvixen

@moncheriemoony

@queenlexusloverofbts

@criminalyetminimal

@plus-size-reader

@owenniasstars

@adventuresofnight

@tuutifruuti

@ tb-ctn

Love, Kenny

#remus lupin #remus john lupin #remus lupin x vega black #remus x vega #marauder #marauder era #marauder era remus lupin #young remus lupin #sirius black cousin #sirius black sister #vega equuleus black

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septembersunrise-blog · 5 years

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What does it take to become an effective communicator? A discourse on 21st century communication

by: Catherine V. Hernando

In the course of my first semester here in UP Cebu brings wide range of information that embodied me as a millennial. In this 21st century, we cannot deny that communication has been evolving all throughout different aspects of what it conveys to people. Thus, this course on Critical Perspectives in Communication helps me discover what communication entails in this present day. It is a course that explores how communication takes place in various levels of human interaction: interpersonal or group, mass or public, intercultural or workplace. As according to the our professor’s syllabus, the course objectives are the following: (1) Discuss the changing landscape of communication; (2) Explain the different theories and frameworks of communication; (3) Apply relevant communication theories and frameworks in the analysis of various issues; and (4) Formulate a critical perspective on a communication phenomenon or event. An outline of topics we had tackled can bring forth to what I’ll be sharing as who I am as a 21st century communicator. The following topics are as follows: the changing landscape of communication where Orality and Literacy has been focused integrating with media; Communication and rhetoric; Communication and identity construction; Communication and representation; Communication as culture and; Communication and discourse. All of which exhibits my in depth knowledge on exemplifying the character of a communicator in this present day century.

To be human, is to analyze. As human beings, we have a tendency to ponder new ideas and concepts on a regular basis. Such curiosity notes back to the days of primary orality. In Walter Ong’s article, “Orality, Literacy, and Modern Media,” I learn about the difference between the oral culture and the written culture. He also tackles the differences and similarities between primary and secondary orality. Hence, in order to solve effectively the problem of retaining and retrieving coherent thoughts, it was compulsory to think in mnemonic patterns. The primary people believed that thoughts must come in “heavily rhythmic, balanced patterns, in repetition or antitheses, in alliterations and assonances, in epithetic and other formulary expressions.” Prior to that in this present day, nothing gradually has changed. Words tend imbue still being powerful. However, media communication is brought in to picture where in communication is done with technology.

Communication is dramatically changed by new technologies. In the 20th century, we have seen the effects of the telephone, radio and television, film, high-speed printing, and electronic mail what more could we expect now as of 21st century. These communication technologies have changed our national political life, corporate management styles, family connections, individual work habits. Additional change in the next century is inevitable, as we adopt video conferencing, multimedia, and internet technologies. Many of the effects of new technologies are unpredictable: the predicted “paperless office” has failed to materialize, for example, and word-processing software has transformed the labor of writing in a way that was never anticipated by computer developers.

But some aspects of communication, both oral and written, have not changed. Communication is still the social glue that holds together nations, corporations, scientific disciplines, and families. Social psychologist Karl Weick once noted that the key tool for effective leadership is the “management of eloquence” because “fluent, forceful, moving expression” affects the ways followers think, speak, and act. Communication also remains the source of problems when people fail to understand each other, fail to agree, and fail to act. Failures of communication contributed in material ways thus new technology does not necessarily make communication more effective, more persuasive, or more ethical.

Moving on with the topic of Communication and Rhetoric, Lloyd Bitzer made the case that rhetorical situation had not been adequately attended to by theorists, including Aristotle. Bitzer asserted that prior theorists have focused on the method of the orator to address the rhetorical situation, or ignored it completely. He then unfolded his theory of situation. He provided the exigence for his own theorization and argument regarding rhetorical situation and argued for the importance and relevance of rhetoric as a discipline beyond the understanding that it is merely the art of persuasion. Prior to the creation and presentation of discourse, Bitzer said there are three constituents of rhetorical situation: exigence (an imperfection marked by urgency, an obstacle, something waiting to be done); audience (persons capable of being influenced – even one’s self); and constraints. I personally agree to this discourse by Bitzer generally because up to this generation rhetoric is clearly evident when we convey our ideas to other people. Using the available sources of information that we have to formulate at least tentative answers to questions regarding whom we want address to, our purpose, the intended audience, and lastly situational factors.

As we’ve tackled on Communication and identity construction, Goffman (1959), argues that the front stage character is representative of the conception of self. In other words, this mask represents the self that one would like to be. The end result of this process is that the role becomes second nature to the person, forming an integral part of personality. However, there are certain downsides with this identity construction when integrated as of this present time. There difficulties of adapting the new technologies remain challenging in many parts of the world. The opportunities as well as the challenges of communication in the coming years cannot be separated from the social, cultural and geographical reconfigurations of the technological revolution. As what I’ve observed our collective identity as global citizens is constantly questioned as these new technologies are adapted to individual nations. As systems of advanced communication infrastructures increasingly become metonyms for development, issues of social and cultural identity increasingly need to be addressed.

Cultural theorist Stuart Hall interrogates the role of representation in images, and discusses cultures central role in representation. He looks at the issue within the most commonly used definition of representation, meaning: represent something which already holds meaning. Although meaning can’t be finally fixed, creating meaning depends on a kind of temporary fixing that allows meaning to build upon itself to take new forms and create new possibilities for meaning. Hall states that it is essential that meaning can be changed. Meaning can only change because it cannot be finally fixed. Stereotyping fixes the meanings that are given to groups limiting the range of perceptions that people can have about a group, what they can do, what the nature of the constraints on them are etc. A common strategy in challenging negative stereotypes is to re-present negative stereotypes in a more positive way- reversing the stereotype. However, the problem with reversal or positive stereotypes is, just as we can’t finally fix negative representations, we can’t finally fix positive ones either.

The signs relayed through the media are a very important area of study as they can form the basis of public perceptions and understanding, Lacey (1998). Within a television program for example, the viewer is exposed to a number of signs which they are required to decipher and recognize. Semiotics provides the interpreter with a means of accessing how signs are deployed and understood within the media. It enables the interpretation of the underlying meanings within media output and how the audience accepts, rejects or redefines those meanings. These theories are important because they reveal the way in which signs communicate ideas, attitudes and beliefs to us. In the context of television, film, newspapers and other forms of media, semiotics explains the way in which images are used to represent and relay information to the audience. In the everyday use of languages and signs, we combine several kinds of physical media in communicating and making meaning from voice and printed texts to mass media images, music, movies, computer Web content, and digital multimedia. The various material means of conveying meaning often overlap and pass on or interpret meaning from other concurrent media in our culture. We are constantly sending, receiving, and making meaning in various kinds of media, often conveying and interpreting meaning from one medium to another.

Edward T. Hall was an anthropologist who made early discoveries of key cultural factors. In particular, he discovered and examined high and low context cultural factors. In a high-context culture, there are many contextual elements that help people to understand the rules. As a result, much is taken for granted. This can be very confusing for a person who does not understand the “unwritten rules” of the culture. At the same time, in a low-context culture, very little is taken for granted. This means that more explanation is needed, it also means there is less chance of misunderstanding particularly when visitors are present. In fact, speech-like forms of written English are proliferating on Facebook, Twitter and elsewhere. As a result, this means that non-standard dialects are being written more than they used to (R.L.G, 2012). Specifically, new words and phrases are being developed and used by young people from all over the world. For instance: IDK – I don’t know, LOL – laugh out loud, Spill the tea – gossip, SMH – so much hate, and many more that the present generation made popular through social media communication. Nevertheless, it basically supports the idea that Internet speak enriches its users. It expands the modern language. In sum, language changes because people change. In the era of modernity we live in, it is ridiculous to avoid progress.

Baker (2011) tackles on Discourse Analysis mainly been a qualitative form of analysis; traditionally, it has involved a “close reading” of a small amount of text, such as a detailed Transcription of a conversation or a magazine article. Discourse analysts need to use Reflexivity, with researchers reflecting on their own position and how that has impacted on the research process and findings. Each individual human is unique and at the same time each person “voices” a given Discourse whenever he or she acts, speaks, or writes. It is our individuality and our participation in multiple Discourses means we can “spin” the discourse in certain ways and in the process, change it and adapt it across time and contexts. Discourses cannot live without us and we cannot communicate and mean without them. Our job, as discourse analysts, is not to and not to reach definitive truths. The job is to deepen the conversations among frameworks. This is the importance of discourse analysis.

To conclude, with all the topics I’ve learned for the past four months on Critical Perspectives in Communication generally is relevant to what communication has become in today’s time. The 21st century is fast evolving hence we really can’t predict what the future can bring to us as communicators. With the lessons tackled, surely one thing I can be proud of for I’ll be bringing this knowledge to be an effective communicator in this fast pacing world. Lastly, I’ll end this essay with a quote from a famous author named Tony Robbins, “To effectively communicate, we must realize that we are all different in the way we perceive the world and use this understanding as a guide to our communication with others.”

References:

Ong, Walter. Orality, Literacy, Modern Media. (pp 60-79). Reproduced in Communication in History, Technology,

Culture, Society. (1999) by David Crowley & Paul Heyer. US: Addison Wesley Longman Inc.

Bitzer, L. F. (1968). The rhetorical situation. Philosophy & rhetoric, 1-14.

Goffman, E. (2002). The presentation of self in everyday life. 1959. Garden City, NY.

Steeves, H. L., & Silva, K. Communication in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges And Opportunities.

Hall, S. (1985). Signification, representation, ideology: Althusser and the post‐structuralist debates. CriticalStudies in Media Communication, 2(2), 91-114.

Lacey, N. (1998). Semiotics. In Image and Representation (pp. 56-75). Palgrave, London.

Hall, E. T., & Hall, M. R. (1990). Understanding cultural differences:[Germans, French and Americans] (Vol. 9).Yarmouth, ME: Intercultural press.

Baker, P., & Ellece, S. (2011). Key terms in discourse analysis. A&C Black.

#catherine v. hernando

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friedesgreatscythe · 6 years

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The whole Eli and the whitetails being his family sort of makes him a foil for Joseph and his family. Also in how Eli treats you after Jacob got the deputy with the Deputy being a threat now vs how EDs treats you as a threat

Yeah I’m pretty sure that was absolutely intentional. Dutch also has interesting parallels. He’s lost his family, he’s distant/detached but still nudging the Deputy to do things around the county to undermine the cult; his bunker is… literally right up against Joseph’s lol. He’s been preparing for the end times probably about as long as the cult has been preaching that it’ll happen, but he doesn’t seem to have been taken seriously or even left to prepare in relative peace, unlike the cult. He was part of the same (?) unit as Jacob, has the Bliss chemical formula on the walls of his med bay...

I wish that we had more time to actually talk to Eli or overhear what he thinks about the Deputy, because he’s not a stupid man. He has to know how dangerous the Deputy is, he knows how dicey it is to take them into the Whitetails. The fact that they keep getting taken, conditioned, etc. should make him worry, but all he seems to think about is how the Deputy hasn’t checked in, he’s concerned, etc. I wonder if that’s his way of trying to gauge how far along their conditioning is, or if it’s even taking root–the Deputy’s silence (the fact that they are a silent protagonist) really does take away from any development, honestly. I can’t even really go into any in depth study of the foil thing because a lot of the motivations for Eli, Dutch, and Joseph are still a bit of guesswork, and that sucks. I mean, yeah, it means I get to play and replay and pay careful close attention each time, but honestly? A lot of this would be more satisfying to analyze if the Deputy was a voiced protagonist so she could actually talk to the characters around her.

IMO Ubi shoulda just bitten the bullet and sprung for a specific lady VA so we could have (1) a radass femprotag in a game of Biblical proportions (and all the symbolism that entails–there’s several female figures mentioned in the Book of Revelation, and the Deputy could’ve embodied more than a few [the contrast of the Mother/Whore of Babylon and the Bride {who represents the new Jerusalem}), and (2) actually develop side characters through her interactions with said people.

That aside–Is Eli suspicious of the Deputy’s distance/silence? Does he think that they’re still able to be swayed or convinced to go against their programming, so to speak? Why doesn’t he give them to Tammy to go through the deconditioning? Does he think that they wouldn’t survive it? That Tammy would just try to kill them? Does he not want to risk the Deputy in Tammy’s care because things are just that desperate topside? Does he realize that taking a risk with a conditioned Deputy like this is an almost certain recipe for disaster? Does he want to try anyway? IS IT ALL JUST LOVE MAKING HIM ACT THIS WAY? BECAUSE I’D BE ALL SET TO BELIEVE THAT. These are all things we could’ve known if the Deputy would just fucking talk.

Similar to how Eli risks a lot by having the Deputy close/trusting them, I do think that it’s interesting that Joseph actually does something similar when he reverses his position on the Deputy being a threat after being all, y’know, hey let them burn after the crash. He catches John trying to drown them and suddenly shifts gears–no, they shouldn’t die, they should be made to Atone. Why? Jacob should capture the Deputy alive, and he praises Jacob for a job well done. Why? Faith blesses the Deputy and waits patiently (in my game, at least) for the Deputy to go to her so she can take them into the Bliss and speak to the Father personally. Why?

Why is Joseph showing this much restraint when he had no interest in doing so at the start? Is it just because of the vision he had of John’s two deaths? Did he have some weird twinge of a conscience and regret what happened, totally reversing his position of “no one is coming to save you” to “I can save you”? Did he realize that for someone to come along and threaten his Project, his family, that means that they are acting all according to the visions he’s seen and the preparation he’s putting his family through? And to kill them is to somehow work against what God ordained? Does he think that they–she, for this argument’s sake–has some special role in it all and he wants to turn her from the destructive ways into one of growth, healing, and (to him) success? Taking the Mother of Babylon, “saving” her so she becomes the Bride of Jerusalem? (see also, the aforementioned women of the Apocalypse)? Does he think showing mercy to the Deputy is his new test? Does he just love the Deputy, like my earlier joke/theory about Eli? Why didn’t anyone else in the Project get the memo that the Deputy should be subdued and not killed? Why does that only come into play when they’re shot with Bliss bullets, or hunted with a Blissed arrow, or when Faith herself manifests in the damn physical realm and snatches us up?

Why did Joseph keep his “save at all costs” feelings about the Deputy a secret from literally everyone, even his own family? Again, if the Deputy had a voice, she could’ve asked him this and even if he gave us a riddled, bizarre answer, it’d still be some answer at all. And we could use it to compare/contrast it with whatever Eli says to the Deputy about her.

Anyway. This answer kinda got away from me and I haven’t had coffee yet.

#long post #the self insert au inspo #Anonymous #krist answers

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smartwebhostingblog · 5 years

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Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

Apple (AAPL) is always subject to Silly Season in their Q1 (Christmas quarter). Q4 has 1-3 weeks of new iPhone sales, but the motherlode is Q1, so speculation is rampant. Apple is the most secretive company in the world, which allows the speculation to shape-shift into fact.

Apple is also the most written-about company in the world, and the best way to get clicks in the tech press is claim-chowder headlines about Apple’s days being numbered. One day, they will be right. But this past decade, how many times have they been wrong? Answer: many. Here’s a fun example from April of this year, long after everyone should have known better:

The iPhone X, Apple’s new flagship phone and heir apparent to the universal design of a smartphone, only accounted for 16% of the company’s smartphone sales so far in 2018, according to estimates from analyst Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The share of all new iPhones sold in the first quarter of 2018 has slid to 60%, down from 78% in 2015, the report stated. The new models include the iPhone X and the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus—meaning the old versions of iPhone are selling almost as well as their updated counterparts.

Apple’s introduction of the iPhone X, and its elevated $1,000 price, indicated Apple had confidence that people would be willing spend more than ever on a new phone to get cutting-edge technology—but a 11-point slide year over year in sales might indicate that confidence is misplaced…

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

This year, Silly Season is even bigger. If this past week wasn’t The Bear and The Bull engaged in thermonuclear war, I don’t know what was. The Animal Spirits are out. The headlines are flying fast and furious. Analysts are downgrading Apple left and right, focused on iPhone units instead of profit for some reason. Anytime someone reminds me that the iPhone has a small market share, I try and remind them they also take about 80% of ALL smartphone profits every quarter.

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

Apple has been producing new iPhone versions and raising its prices on them. But its high price is not holding for the latest version, the iPhone X, so as Bloomberg reported, Apple is offering customers a 40 percent discount.

How so? On December 2, Apple added a new banner to the top of its website advertising the iPhone XR for $449, $300 less than its official sticker price. The deal, noted with an asterisk and described at the bottom of the page, requires customers to trade in an iPhone 7 Plus, a high-end handset from two years ago.

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

To put it in perspective, the plunge in the iPhone gross margin has been precipitous. As I mentioned, In 2012, the iPhone had a 71 percent gross margin. Before the 40 percent discount, the iPhone X had a much lower gross margin of 48 percent — its price was $749 and the cost of the parts was $390, according to IHS Markit.

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

The first thing is plain common sense. Cohan and others weirdly assume that Apple is going to just chuck these trade-ins into the trash and call it a day. Does that sound like Apple to you? Does that sound like something any company would do? Of course, Apple refurbishes them, and sells them in its online store.

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

So I believe two things are going on here. Apple sees that the upgrade cycle is lengthening, and badly wants to get those people with very old phones into a new one. The extra credit only applies if you are buying a 2018-year phone (Apple also sells new previous year phones as a budget option). As we have learned many times in the past, this does not necessarily mean iPhone units are down, though I suspect they are anyway.

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

The second thing I think is going on has to do with the iPhone 7 Plus, which I believe to be Apple’s focus here. This is pure speculation, so take it with a grain of salt, but in analyzing how they’ve set up the promotion, it just looks like to me that, while they’re taking all comers, they are particularly interested in that model. Apple is deliberate about every single detail of everything, and it can’t be an accident. Why?

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

US dollars! Aren’t they the best? Completely fungible global reserve currency, and the easiest way to keep score. How odd it is that analysts insist on using phone units to keep score when dollars are just sitting right there.

Someone buys an iPhone XR for $449 plus an iPhone 7 Plus in “good” condition. There’s a lot of wiggle room between those two quotation marks, but Apple’s definition of “good” is “anything where the refurb cost is low enough that we can still make an acceptable profit.”

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I think this comes pretty close to what Apple is looking for. The last 100 phones sold in this category averaged in price $347.54.1 Apple could just turn around these phones that they are purchasing for $300, and make a 13.7% profit on them the same day. And remember, that’s the least expensive of the iPhone 7 Pluses. The 128GB and 256GB versions fetch about $60 and $120 more on eBay, respectively. Apple pays $300 regardless.

But they don’t sell them on eBay, of course. They send it back to Hon Hai, where they are rubbed and scrubbed and sold in the Apple refurb store, for $479, $569 and $649, depending on storage. Remember, that $649 version still cost Apple only $300. Let’s be super-conservative and say the average sale price is $500 because of heavy mix towards the 32GB phone. That means Apple’s profit here is $200 minus the cost of refurb.

Here’s the tricky part, because Apple is the most secretive company in the world, it’s impossible to know what that refurb cost is. Since they could just get $348 on the open market without the refurb, I would imagine the profit is much higher than that $48. I would guess much closer to $148 to $48, but that’s pure speculation. Let’s just call it $100. So instead of getting $749 for this iPhone XR, Apple got $849 ($449+$500-$100).

Apple does not give anything away. Ever. They like to put on a soft, PC face, but they are also the greediest company out there, because Steve Jobs understood that the scorecard was all in dollar signs, not phone units.

I think this is another brilliant lever-pull by Tim Cook, that no one else even saw, won’t understand until the May conference call, and maybe never. Or, I’m just completely wrong. Isn’t following Apple fun and exhausting?

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

Bigger phones tend to be popular in Asia. According to Device Atlas, in South Korea, home of Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), the most popular phone in 2018 is the iPhone 7 Plus with 11% share. The top Android phone is the Galaxy Note 8, also a large phone. It’s not true in every Asian country, but sales of larger phones tend to be better there, where it is often a person’s only device.

Right now, the dollar is strong and a good way for Apple to boost profits is selling abroad. The $749 iPhoneXR costs 990,000 Korean Won, or $887 in today’s exchange on xe.com. A brand new iPhone 7 Plus is $569 in the US, and $681 in Korea. Also, this income and profit gets funneled through their Irish “subsidiary” and they pay no US taxes on it.

Notice I didn’t tell you the price of a refurb iPhone 7 Plus in the Korean Apple Store? That’s because there are no iPhones there, or anywhere else in Asia that I looked. Like I said, Apple is very deliberate about things, and they may have a Very Good Reason why there are none. Or, they could be lacking in supply, and that’s what this is all about: getting supply of used inventory to sell in Asia.

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Yes. Probably. I don’t care. More to the point, neither does Apple. The margins on the refurbs are high, it increases their user base in the fastest growing part of the world, and juicing foreign sales, where the profits are much higher, will make up for some of the reduced units on the top-line phones. Analysts may care where the dollars come from, but Apple does not.2 They are the only units that matter.

Implications for Apple Stock

As I write this, Apple sits at 156.23. It’s TTM PE is 13.15. Their cash-net-debt is about $22/share (probably more now, since the share count is likely lower than it was in September). So minus the cash, the market is currently valuing Apple at $134 with a PE of 11.30. That is, other than the cash, the entire rest of Apple is worth $636 billion. Other assets besides cash are $166 billion. So the non-asset value of the entire company is $470 billion. Come on, now.

But there is an old saying that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The Bull and The Bear are out, fighting for supremacy, with one fear trade on top of another. Say whatever you want about trade, the Fed, liquidity, whatever. We are into pure Animal Spirits and none of it matters until one of them wins.

So under these conditions, I can’t say that Apple stock won’t go even lower; you may even be able to get it as low as $100 if The Bear wins. But I also think that the price for Apple now is absurdly low, and a year from now will be a lot higher. I took another taste at $150, even though I am a big Fat Bear right now. If it goes to $100, I will probably buy more. That’s how I do Apple, I only buy, never sell. It’s working so far, until it doesn’t.

Conclusions: Who Knows?

Pictured L-R: Eddie Cue, Ho Chi Minh, Nikita Khrushchev, Phil Schiller, Leonid Brezhnev, Tim Cook and Jeff Williams. Scott Forestall was airbrushed out of that empty spot in the middle between Khrushchev and Schiller. Source: US Navy Public Archives

During the Cold War, solid data about the Soviet Union was very hard to come by. Frustrated political scientists came up with the field of “Sovietology,” which was more art than science. They would pour over articles and photos in Pravda looking for any clue into new policy or inner-circle machinations from article verbiage, and photo composition and airbrushing. You will probably be unsurprised to learn that, lacking data, their predictions were not very good.

Covering Apple is kind of similar and equally as frustrating. They are almost as secretive as the Soviets between SEC filings, and so we have to engage in a little educated guessing, and hope our record is better than the Sovietologists. Anyone from outside of Apple who tells you they know what is happening at Apple is a liar. Heck, most of the people inside Apple don’t know what’s going on beyond their own small world there.

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

My policy with heavily-followed companies like Apple is to not read or respond to comments, as they seem to attract a large amount of FUD and trolling. Feel free to send me a private message if you have a question or comment directed at me. If you are polite and respectful, you will almost certainly get a response that is also polite and respectful.

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

lazilysillyprince · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

hostingnewsfeed · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on https://rwamztech.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

Notice I didn’t tell you the price of a refurb iPhone 7 Plus in the Korean Apple Store? That’s because there are no iPhones there, or anywhere else in Asia that I looked. Like I said, Apple is very deliberate about things, and they may have a Very Good Reason why there are none. Or, they could be lacking in supply, and that��s what this is all about: getting supply of used inventory to sell in Asia.

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

smartwebhostingblog · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

lazilysillyprince · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

hostingnewsfeed · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://croopdiseno.com/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

0 notes

awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://iwebhostingreviews.com/vexx/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

No Related Posts

0 notes

smartwebhostingblog · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://greatresponder.com/2019/01/03/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

No Related Posts

0 notes

awesomecolorfulcollectorwombat · 5 years

Text

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

New Post has been published on http://greatresponder.com/2019/01/03/apple-silly-season-is-upon-us/

Apple Silly Season Is Upon Us

Silly Season Is Upon Us

That feeling when graffiti makes more sense than floor traders. By cogdogblog – Good Advice, CC0, Bring a towel, too. (2535543334).jpg

We’ll know soon enough what the quarter looked like for Apple, as the company reports its earnings May 1.

How’d that work out?

AAPL Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts

Oh, right. I wonder if Dave ever wrote a headline, “Boy, Was I Wrong About the iPhone X!”

Anyway, not to pick on Peter Cohan specifically, but there’s been a lot of this:

O how mighty Apple has fallen!

By discounting the price to $449, the iPhone gross margin drops to 13 percent.

Bonus points for “O how mighty Apple has fallen!”

He is correct that Steve Jobs loved high gross margins so much that his wife was probably jealous of their relationship. But, unfortunately, arithmetic and common sense are Cohan’s nemeses here.

So What’s Wrong Here?

Secondly, as I will show below, Apple is most most likely increasing profits here, not decreasing them.

The Apple Trade-In Program

You wouldn’t know it from these articles, but Apple has had a trade-in program for years now. Two things have changed:

They raised the trade-in value for December. More so on the older phones.

They promoted the heck out of it for Christmas.

Here are the changes in trade-in value:

Device

Old Credit

New Credit

Change

iPhone 6

$75

$150

100%

iPhone 6 Plus

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s

$100

$200

100%

iPhone 6s Plus

$150

$250

67%

iPhone 7

$175

$250

43%

iPhone 7 Plus

$250

$300

20%

iPhone 8

$275

$300

To me, the only units that matter are US dollars, to paraphrase Johnny Rotten.

Source: AZQutoes

First, let’s look at the economics of this transaction.

The Only Units

I looked on eBay to get a sense of where the market for used iPhone 7 Pluses stood as of today. I cataloged the last 100 completed transactions that fulfilled the following qualifications:

32GB

Described as good or better. Minor scratches and dings OK.

All components in good working order

No third-party screen replacement or any other third-party major component replacement.

Unlocked in all ways

No accessories required, just the phone

Also, there were a couple that were suspect, like the one that sold for $1100 to someone 10 miles away from the seller (LOL, money-laundering), so I omitted those.

I Think They’re Headed to Asia

Again, we’re into purely speculative territory here, but this is based on a few things:

But Wouldn’t This Cut Into New iPhone Sales?

Implications for Apple Stock

Conclusions: Who Knows?

As always, the speculation about this quarter will end with their 10-Q, and maybe we will get a couple of days’ break before the speculation on Q2 begins. Until then, speculate away!

Sadly…

Endnotes

1 I included shipping for two reasons. 1. This is the full cost of what the buyer was willing to pay. 2. Low price + high shipping cost is the oldest trick in the book.

2 When the iPhone was first released, some analysts complained that it would cut into iPod sales and was therefore a bad idea. Seriously.

Additional disclosure: Forever, and ever

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

No Related Posts

0 notes