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sinrau · 4 years

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Since this article was published in the Tampa Bay Times ( 5/28/20 ), the average daily number of new Covid-19 cases in Florida has risen nearly tenfold.

In the second half of June, the story of the United States’ coronavirus pandemic began to shift dramatically, as a massive surge in new infections took hold, particularly across states in the South and West that had previously been spared the worst of the outbreak. Media reports abruptly switched gears from declaring that reopening was proceeding with few ill effects ( Reuters, 5/17/20; Tampa Bay Times, 5/28/20 ) to expressing alarm that health officials’ warnings against lifting social distancing restrictions too soon had been proven right—a cognitive dissonance perhaps most dramatically depicted in Oregon Public Broadcasting ’s headline, “Oregon’s COVID-19 Spike Surprises, Despite Predictions of Rising Caseloads” ( 6/10/20 ).

Increasingly, the big story has been the litany of state moves to halt or roll back reopenings: A typical roundup in the New York Times ( 6/26/20 ) included closing bars in Texas and Florida, a full stay-at-home order in California’s Imperial County, and putting beaches off-limits in Miami-Dade County for the July 4th weekend.

“This is a very dangerous time,” declared Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, where new cases began rising on June 15, just over a month after the state allowed stores and businesses to reopen. “I think what is happening in Texas and Florida and several other states should be a warning to everyone.”

But a warning of what? While the question of how quickly to reopen will affect potentially millions of lives, equally important is asking what science can tell us about how to reopen. Health experts point to many lessons we can learn from the pandemic experience, both in the US and elsewhere, that can help inform which activities are safest (and most necessary) to resume—a discussion that is more useful than the media’s inclination toward simple debates about whether reopening is good or bad ( LA Times, 5/14/20; New York Times, 5/20/20 ) .

Among the most important conclusions:

1. Types of reopenings matter

While the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 at first seemed like an all-powerful threat that could be carried by everything from cardboard boxes to cats, public health officials have long since determined that infection is overwhelmingly via person-to-person encounters. This means that reducing face-to-face interaction time—or ensuring that it’s at least conducted while wearing masks, or in outdoor or well-ventilated spaces—is key to reducing risk, as spelled out in a diagram by University of Massachusetts/Dartmouth infectious disease researcher and blogger Erin Bromage:

Infectious disease experts have attempted to reduce this equation to simple mnemonics that will be easy to remember; Tulane University epidemiologist Susan Hassig has cited “the three D’s: diversity, distance and duration” ( Business Insider, 6/8/20 ), while Ohio State’s William Miller created the rhyme “time, space, people, place” ( NPR, 6/23/20 ). These were featured in the increasingly common articles attempting to rank which activities were riskiest, including some that assigned weirdly specific point scales to behaviors for anyone wondering whether they should go bowling or for a pontoon boat ride ( MLive, 6/2/20 ).

A mass outbreak in a South Korean call center showed how easily the coronavirus can spread in an office environment; workspaces of infected employees are marked in blue (Business Insider, 4/28/20 ).

But most of those articles entirely ignored one of the most widespread reopening activities: going back to work in shared office spaces. Infectious disease experts say that offices can be the perfect petri dishes for viral spread, involving gatherings of a large number of people, indoors, for a long time, with recirculated air. As one study ( Business Insider, 4/28/20 ) of a coronavirus outbreak at a Seoul call center showed, the virus can quickly spread across an entire floor, especially in a modern open-plan office. In fact, the call center was doubly prone to viral spread, because its workers were all talking constantly, which previous studies have found to spread respiratory droplets just as effectively as coughing ( Better Humans, 4/20/20 )—a warning that was heavily noted in media’s coverage of the risks of chanting protestors ( Washington Post, 5/31/20; Politico, 6/8/20 ), but notably missing from articles on the reopening of workplaces.

“They’re pretty high-risk spaces,” Boston University School of Public Health epidemiologist Eleanor Murray tells FAIR. “What we would like to see with offices, if people have to be there for the function of the office to work, is to keep the minimum number of people in at any given time.” (She also urges consideration of the risk to office cleaning workers, who are seldom included in back-to-work safety debates.)

This is especially key, adds Tulane’s Hassig, in office environments where co-workers are breathing the same air. Workers can safely unmask if they’re in a private office where they can shut their door, she tells FAIR; however, “if you’re in an open office space with little four-foot cubicle walls, everybody needs to be wearing masks all the time.”

Yet most states have limited themselves to following CDC guidelines for reopening offices, which mandate wearing masks only when within six feet of a co-worker. But as Bromage ( 5/6/20 ) has pointed out, “Social distancing rules are really to protect you with brief exposures or outdoor exposures.”

In fact, former Arizona Department of Health Services director Will Humble told Newsweek ( 6/9/20 ) that one reason his state became the nation’s leader in new infections per capita was that local officials did not go beyond CDC mandates to impose “performance criteria such as required business mitigation measures, contact tracing capacity or mask-wearing.” Hassig worries that the CDC’s guidance may have been “far less prescriptive than they would like it to be from the scientific perspective,” noting that “we’ve got plenty of evidence that distance is not enough if you’re in a shared space with lots of people.”

All of this would have been good for US workers returning to their jobs to know, but very little of it has made it into media coverage of reopenings, whether before or after the recent virus spikes. And the rare exceptions often left much to be desired: When CBS News ( 5/28/20 ) devoted time to investigating the dangers of reopening offices, it was solely in terms of whether plumbing systems left stagnant during closures could lead to the spread of Legionnaires’ disease.

2. Let science, not political power, guide health decisions

Because it takes at least two to three weeks for case numbers to noticeably rise in response to a change in social distancing rules, Hassig says, states should start slowly, and wait to see if numbers rise before moving on to the next stage of reopening. “If your reopening timetable is preset, that’s somewhat of a folly,” she says. Ideally, she says, after each change in policy, states should “wait at least three weeks to make a decision before you move on, which would mean that probably you’re really looking at a month in each phase. And that is not what Texas did.”

Do you need to know whether independent health experts think this is a good idea? Apparently not (Austin American Statesman, 5/1/20 )

It’s also not how the Texas media presented reopening plans to the public. The Austin American Statesman ( 4/27/20, 5/1/20 ) dutifully listed types of businesses that would resume operations under Gov. Greg Abbott’s reopening order, but never cited any independent health officials on the risks each activity would entail. When the Dallas Morning News ( 4/30/20 ) ran answers to reader questions about the reopening, the only potential negative consequence it mentioned was whether Texans who refused to return to work could still get unemployment benefits. And the Houston Chronicle ( 4/30/20 ) declared, “No more stay-home. Just stay safe”—though the only “safety” measures it mentioned were those still being recommended by Abbott, such as wearing masks in public and limiting the size of gatherings.

The New York Times ( 5/1/20 ), meanwhile, chose to both-sides the issue with a story headlined “A Texas-Size Reopening Has Many Wondering: Too Much or Not Enough?”

In doing so, the media largely followed the lead of elected officials, who in many cases let concern over profit-and-loss statements take precedence over whether the data indicated it was safe to resume business as usual. In Ohio, state officials went so far as to allow guidelines to be written by the businesses seeking to reopen themselves ( Columbus Dispatch, 6/29/20 ), something health experts suspect helped lead to a tripling of daily new cases in the state between June 14 and June 25.

3. Learn from places that have done better

Some hard-hit European countries have had much more success with reopening than the United States, as a comparison of per capita average daily new cases shows (orange: Italy; green: Spain; red: Germany; blue: France; purple: US). (Chart: 91-VIDOC )

The Covid curves in many European and Asian nations that were hit the earliest and took the first and strongest action have remained low, despite reopenings in those nations: Italy, for example, once the world epicenter of the virus, currently has under three new cases per day per million residents, according to Johns Hopkins data —about half the infection rate for the least-hard-hit US state, Vermont.

Those nations, however, took very different approaches to reopening than the US. First off, they waited until case rates were much lower before reopening: When Italy first reopened restaurants on May 18, its daily new-case rate, averaged over the previous week, was 14.4 per million residents; when Florida did so on May 4, its average daily rate was 31.7 per million. “Where you start in terms of your case burden will probably wind up being one of the best predictors of how well your reopening went,” says Hassig.

In addition, the measures the European nations took to get cases down that low were much stricter than those ever implemented in the US—something that was largely overlooked in rundowns of nations imposing and lifting lockdowns ( New York Times, 6/10/20; CNBC, 6/25/20 ). “What we were doing in the US compared to what Europe was doing in terms of lockdown are completely different things,” says Murray:

I have friends in France, and you had to have a permit that said what time you were allowed to go to the grocery store. So even the places in the US that did a gradual opening were already starting from a much more open place than places in Europe.

US residents can also learn from areas of their own country that have done comparatively well under reopenings. Hassig notes that New Orleans and neighboring Jefferson Parish have provided an unintentional controlled experiment—albeit “a sample of one”—in the efficacy of wearing masks: “The mayor of New Orleans made masking mandatory in indoor spaces, which empowered businesses to put up signs like ‘No mask, no shoes, no shirt, no service.’”

The city, which had been an early Covid hotspot, also established a hotline to report violators, kept casinos closed longer, and kept tighter restrictions on such things as church gatherings—with the result, says Hassig, that Orleans Parish currently has less than half the new-case rate of the similarly sized Jefferson Parish. (On Monday, Jefferson Parish announced its own mandatory mask order— New Orleans Advocate, 6/29/20.)

4. Every reopening is a tradeoff

Even before most US states had shut down, Siva Vaidhyanathan (Guardian, 3/26/20 ) was warning that pitting health against the economy was a false choice.

When media outlets posit the decision facing states as balancing the economic needs with public-health needs, it not only ignores that an out-of-control pandemic would be an economic catastrophe ( Guardian, 3/26/20 ), but overlooks another important point: In reopening, governments have a limited amount of risk they can safely spread around without losing control of an outbreak. As a result, reopening decisions don’t just impact public health and the economy now—they also could end up undermining your ability to reopen other things down the road.

“It’s not ‘open’ or ‘shut’—there’s a whole spectrum in between,” says Murray. “We need to be thinking about what are the high-priority things that we need to reopen from a functioning point of view, and not an enjoyment point of view.”

If the goal is to prevent the kind of explosive surge in Covid cases that many states saw in March and April—and which are now being repeated in new hotspots in June and July—that means picking and choosing carefully, not just which activities are the safest, but which are the most urgent for a functioning society—which, it bears emphasizing, is not the same thing as what’s best for businesses’ bottom lines.

“We need to be getting dentists’ offices open and getting childcare open and getting elective medical treatment open; bars are not as important,” advises Murray. “It may be that we have to give up on some of those things to allow the risks that some of these other activities take.”

That’s a discussion that will require informed public debate on the conditions of reopening, from what should stay closed to whether to require masks. It’s a debate that will be much easier if the media spends less time on who is “winning” or “losing” in the struggle to reopen, and more on why people are getting infected—and how they could not be.

What mainstream media isn’t telling you about the risks of reopening

#IFTTT #WordPress

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simkjrs · 7 years

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chapter 6 asks that are people in distress about shinsou

SPOILERS FOR THE FIC, so it’s all under the readmore

** before i start, i just want to say, the sheer number of people who have guessed that it’s himiko impersonating shinsou is frankly alarming and equally hilarious. thanks yall

Anonymous said: OH MY GOD SHINSOU MY SON, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO HIM??? HE DOESNT DESERVE THIS????? (for real, tho, that chapter was?? So good??? I'm so happy to have read this)

you’re absolutely right he doesn’t deserve this and im doing it to him anyways, which objectively proves that as an author i am not and never have been trustworthy. im sorry if i ever tricked you into thinking otherwise. im crying as well

Anonymous said: holy crap that chapter. where do i even start. i knew the kidnapping was coming up but that scene still managed to punch me in the gut. shinsou doesn't deserve this he just wanted to be a hero you guys. also the scene where izuku brought mitoki flowers was really great and i'm so happy that conversation happened. and the paintball fight? best thing i've ever laid my eyes upon. sorry this wasn't very coherent, i'm gonna go fling myself into the sun. thank you for this amazing chapter.

thank YOU for the feedback, i’m really glad you enjoyed the mitoki conversation & the paintball fight because those two scenes were the ones i was most nervous about. as for shinsou, you are very right. he doesn’t deserve this and im sorry

Anonymous said: WHAT THE FUCK!!!!! that was so intense!!!!!!!!!!!! that chapter was amazing you lied sorry ://// (izuku has a crush on shinsou and i couldnt be happier. sweethearts, the both of them.) SO MUCH HAPPENED AT ONCE IM FU KCIFNSICIAJX!!!! WHAT HAPPENED WITH SHINSOU??? MY BOY WHO THREATENED HIM. WHO HURT HIM??!?!?!!?!??!!??!?! i got so emotional all throughout this chapter i almost cried like 26 times that was wild af!!! NOW HOW DO I RECOVER FROM THIS!!!! (im so worried about shinsou. about everyone.)

hfjldksf thanks!! glad you enjoyed it!! im sorry for making you emotional. its the unintended side effects of tryin to convey izuku’s state of mind

i know this won’t ease your suffering much but for a while i intended for chapter 7 to be from shinsou’s point of view, and it was quite literally just titled “what happened to shinsou.” this may still happen. im not sure yet. stay tuned next for,

Anonymous said: *twitch twitch twitchy twich* omg suddenly i understand those comments from your betas. like. i'm legit speechless???? why. why would you do this, you evil writer from awesome land. like i just. im in like. the all caps state of shock. that FREAKING LAST LINE AKDJKLADSLKAJDSKLJLKJ. like. *squeezes air* i dont even know where to begin???? I MEAN CLEARLY I STARTED AT THE END BUT LIKE. so much. to talk about. like. the smile bits of gaming and cats and pics then THAT KAST KUUSJDFHSKJDHFSKJDHSJDF

i bait in readers with cute fun shenanigans and then i go in for the kill

(thank you for writing in, i’m glad you enjoyed the chapter <3 )

Anonymous said: no, but like, ur saying that chapter 6 is the worst one YET (which is a HORRIBLE LIE. this chapter was great. even if it let us all devastated afterwards. but whats a good fanfiction if it doesnt affect the reader tho heh(and your certainly is a great fanfiction. one of the greatest)) is it because of the giant clusterfuck that 7 and/or 8 is gonna be? (kamino ward, all might reveal, kidnappings+ SHINSOU) im legit worried haha ( btw "(accidental) dad might: Stealth Style" is my favorite tag now)

i cultivate my tags with pride. im glad you enjoyed that one in particular :3c and also... thank you... i was super insecure abt ch6 so it’s really nice hearing ppl liked it! i really appreciate it <3

the next chapter(s?) are going to be a clusterfuck so you are probably wise to be legit worried. preemptive apologies. i don’t know why im doing this and im sorry also

Anonymous said: I don't actually believe that Shinsou did it, naturally. Maybe the villains pin the blame on him cause it's easier to do it to someone that everyone is already wary about? I honestly have no idea, you're too unpredictable with some of these things

u have a good nose anon... but also when have i EVER been unpredictable about anything. my taste and storytelling is incredibly predictable in that it is always The Worst and Incredibly Self Indulgent. all you have to do to pick out the path im taking is think “what path allows simk to pander to their own interests the most?” and thats the path i’ll take. this is exactly what is happening with the entirety of this fic and especially with this next arc

Anonymous said: is shinsou being blackmailed?? controlled by someone else?? someone stole his face?? was he used as a hostage bc he interacted with class I-A more? or is someone threatening izuku again or.. ahhh idk what it is but I really feel he is not a traitor so: my current theories about shinsou. am I close??

yes to all of the above

Anonymous said: Pretty sure you didn't get many theories yet cause we are still in shock. Send help pls. (Loved the chapter btw that chapter was legit a roller-coaster of feels.)

theres no help to be found. i did this irrevocably and now theres nothing we can do about it

(thank you! i’m really glad to hear that, and hope that you have recovered from your shock :p )

Anonymous said: thoughts on shinsou's reasons: bakugou is a abusive shit who is undeserving of being a hero and made him lose all faith in heroes, blackmail, threats, brainwashing, some other type of convincing, he has been the traitor the whole time and you just want to kill us with angst, the LoV is threatening deku and if he doesn't help them they kill him, rage against society has reached its peak (same tho), or he wants to get back at bakugou, or the Cat Cafe is being threatened. please stop killing me.

this is a really impressive laundry list of unconventional reasons for shinsou to join the villain alliance. i love it. i too would become a villain in order to save my favorite cat cafe and spite a person i don’t like

@armcontrolnerve said: it was himiko in the study with the candlestick

d...does this make shinsou the murder victim

Anonymous said: I JUST READ THE NEW CHAPTER AND JUST WANTED TO DROP BY AND SAY YOU'VE UTTERLY WRECKED ME. I have tears in my eyes, I am currently flailing about like a fish while my brain goes into overdrive trying to dodge the reality of that ending. Shinsou was helping Izuku not two scenes ago, he was probably kidnapped and forced to do it against his will via torture or something. I refuse to believe that Shinsou is a villain and you cannot tell me oTHERWISE

good instincts. hold onto that feeling

Anonymous said: My guess: shinsou was kidnapped by Villain Alliance. Himiko Toga is using her quirk to impersonate him. But...why

bad pr image for yuuei

Anonymous said: all im thinking is that girl with the quirk that lets her shapeshift into people if she gets their blood and im just. oh no. shinsou. how could u do this to the poor sweet gay boy. meet me in the pit for a fight, and also a round of compliments for ur fucking writing skills. u made me cry. i love this fic so much but unfortunately i still have to challenge u to a duel, for the sake of these poor children, and their mental health,,, (ps i love ur writing and ur fantastic!! byeee)

if you kill me youll never get these children back alive

(thank u though... this made me laugh. rest assured that i will promptly apply all my writing skills to elucidating the mystery of what happened to shinsou)

Anonymous said: Shinsou probably got his quirk stolen by Sensei or someone is impersonating him I guess. Or his classmates are jerks and framing him or something. Smh

his classmates threw him under the bus

@sunslammerdown said: hi i am a person who reads your very extremely good fanfiction... thanks very much and also Wow Rude How Dare You. you said you were surprised at not getting more shinsou theories so heres my two: 1) It Was Toga, shinsou is kidnapped its not good 2) It Was All For One who can take quirks and use them on people and shinsou has a mind control quirk, its very not good still

what if its... 3) both, for maximum suffering, and the ultimate very not good happenstance

@viperofsand said: I am sure I had something in mind when giving my review while I was reading chap 6, but after the final part my mind was all 'WHAT THE HELLLLLL', so, there is that. Also, I am inaugurating #ShinsouIsNotAVillain2017 for this fic starting now.

this is a good hashtag. i’m behind it. i have no right to be but i am

Anonymous said: ok i'm trying not to panic bc of the cliffhanger but just tell me, will we know /why/ shinso is doing what he's doing ?? i'm trying not to spoil for ppl

no worries! we will find out exactly what happened to shinsou...

@auspiciouswhiskers said: How much do I have to pay for a Shinsou redemption and/or Shindeku endgame because pleeease you have responsibilities

you don’t even have to ask. its already under way...

(more specifically: you just don’t even need to ask. there just isnt a need. hold that thought for a shindeku endgame though bc who KNOWS where im headed with that)

Anonymous said: Izuku's gonna lure Shinsou with cats and everything will be just fine. Izuku holding up fuku, taka and isao: you know u can't harm them Shinsou: defeated

this is the ultimate villain shinsou ask. nothing is ever going to top this. you dont even need to fight shinsou you just have to appeal to him with cats and he’ll crumble instantly

Anonymous said: Eh, I don't know if I'm angry, but I am a tad disappointed if it actually is "what it looks like" with Shinsou. I mean his whole deal is that while his power seems like one that a villain would have, he doesn't actually want to use it that way. If he really is a villain in your story, that sorta defeats the purpose of his character, you know? But I guess I'll just wait and see what you plan to do with it.

that aspect of his character is probably what makes what im doing 100% more awful so i guess what im trying to say is: don’t worry it’s not what it seems, but also, i should not be allowed to touch a computer

Anonymous said: ok ok i have an idea about why shinsou provided inside help(i hope im at least a little right or im going to cry): he was threatened by the league? they saw him hanging out with deku and probably knew that he didnt know he was Hella Strong or smth and were like "look, if u dont want ur friend to die ur gonna have to Cooperate" and shinsou being an amazing friend was like "U LEAVE HIM ALONE U COCKROACH" and he did That. it probably happened in That One Stupid Horrible Month (please. PLEASE)

shinsou became a villain for deku confirmed. be gay, turn to the dark side

Anonymous said: honestly while i'm still Actually Dead over the latest chapter Izuku having his Gay Awakening over someone who stabs him in the back is Relatable lol

h...hold that thought...

also. i’m really sorry to hear that, and i hope you’re in a better place now. may your future gay relationships be blessed

Anonymous said: It's Mamoru. The ending to your new chapter is definitely a twist that I didn't expect at all. But oddly I'm not angry. Is Shinsou really going to be a villain? Because it kinda goes against he is fighting for. Or is he threatened?

spoiler alert...

@chocowl said: holy fuck simk

A theory: was Shinsou kidnapped by the VA and Himiko used her Quirk to look like him? That would explain the silence towards Izuku and would heal our tormented souls Q-Q

the truth is, the entire villain alliance is conspiring to fuck over shinsou, specifically

#chapter 6 #ask #ask compilation #anonymous #chocowl #auspiciouswhiskers #viperofsand #sunslammerdown #armcontrolnerve #the number of asks is...so much #spoilers for the fic ///

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lovelesswiki · 7 years

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Post-Moonless predictions— Well-Kept Secrets (6/10)

previous part<–[here] –> next part

for the last week or so, i’ve been talking about a large theory i’ve been writing. since finishing it, i’ve decided to publish it in parts, since it’s actually about 10 different theories all on one subject. since it’s all written out, i’ll try to be publishing one part of this per day.

essentially, this is a set of theories about what i believe will have to happen in order to properly lead up to a climax–the one we’ve been building up to for years and years now. so, these are what i theorize will happen after the first moonless vs beloved battle, broken up into ten different parts. each theory is explained and theres images for each one.

table of contents (bolded is the post you’re looking at):

moonless and beloved will rematch (1)

soubi will fall into a deep depression and possibly become suicidal (2)

ritsuka will arrive at seven voices, SM’s activity will be revealed (3)

SM will reveal that there was a mole in their organization (4)

kio will be the one to take ritsuka to goura (5)

ritsuka will find things out about soubi and the aoyagi family (6)

SM’s true purpose will be revealed. ritsuka will have to make a decision about good vs evil (7)

seventh SM member will be revealed (8)

nagisa will find out what really happened to sanae (9)

ritsuka will be asked to join SM to fill the aoyagi seat (10)

Theory: soubi keeps secrets well for many reasons, but now that he’s gone, they’re going to have to come to light, and ritsuka will find out more about him and his own family, forcing him to realize just how strong and terrible seimei’s hold over soubi is.

Note: this theory heavily discusses the topic of rape in terms of soubi being both the victim and the perpetrator and in terms of nisei’s rape of mikado. proceeding with caution is advised.

we’ve already been a little bit introduced to this. or, should i say, ritsuka has been a little bit more introduced to this.

soubi keeps secrets from ritsuka. soubi keeps secrets that he has not explicitly been told to keep. ill write up another post someday about this, but i suspect that soubi keeps secrets about his past from ritsuka because seimei already knew all those secrets and used them against him, and he thinks that not telling them to ritsuka will prevent them from hurting, so he can just ignore his past and pretend like it never happened. this actually isnt uncommon in people who have been through constant abuse, and it makes sense why soubi hasn’t told ritsuka (or anyone) anything yet.

not even kio or natsuo and youji seem to know about soubi’s complete past, involving mainly ritsu’s treatment of him, but also involving what soubi did under seimei’s rule. it is pretty clear from the angry, verbally violent way that he responds to tokino with that he did some pretty terrible things under seimei’s rule. when tokino implies that like nisei, it was soubi’s job to rape and murder enemies, soubi loses his shit but never really denies it. aside from this, we have hard evidence of soubi murdering other teams for seimei, including this being explicitly stated in a drama CD where someone that soubi took pity on comes back to haunt him, and the fact that one of the crimes seimei’s being prosecuted for includes murder, and seimei doesn’t do the dirty work to say the least. there’s also the fact that in the beginning, he kept asking ritsuka if he wanted soubi to murder their opponents, which strongly implies that he’d been put in a situation previously, where that question was necessary and appropriate, and where the answer was ‘yes’. this is a secret long-kept, and i do believe it’s key in understanding soubi, which is something ritsuka (and by extension kio) desperately need, and it’ll play into ritsuka’s later development of understanding that not everything falls into ‘good’ and ‘evil’.

(pictured: soubi starts an yelling argument with tokino over one comment, resulting in youji telling him to calm the fuck down.)

soubi has let a couple things go to ritsuka. he confirmed that ritsu raised him and was very cruel to him, but he didnt expand much on either point. with the few stories that soubi did tell ritsuka, ritsuka seemed a bit distressed and commented that the things ritsu did were horrible. in addition to this, ritsuka learning about seimei and nisei raping mikado seemed to be a huge turning point for him in the way he viewed seimei, and i suspect that there will be something similar when ritsuka learns that soubi was raped at a young age by the man raising him. and i suspect he’ll become very confused and disorientated when he realizes that seimei had soubi do many of the same things that nisei did. while i think their situations are different to where soubi had no capacity to enjoy it or even want to do it, whereas with nisei and in the case of mikado, nisei seems to have gone above and beyond whatever seimei ordered him to do and going along with his personality, enjoyed it, especially given his comments of liking it when listening to ritsuka cry through his wiretaps.

(it’s probably safe to say that he enjoyed what he did to mikado.)

ritsuka is a particular character, because he’s young, and young people tend to view the world in terms of ‘black’ and ‘white’. for a long, long time, ritsuka viewed his brother as ‘good’ and in the series, mostly towards the beginning, he struggled with whether or not soubi was a ‘bad guy’. however, hes quickly discovering that the world isn’t so clear-cut, which we’ll get to in a hot minute (or more, in the next part of this series).

by some way or another, probably by just directly asking ritsu or nagisa and by spending an extended amount of time at seven voices, ritsuka will find out about soubi’s childhood. he will also go deeper into what the flashback chapters introduced and we’ll find out what further transpired with ritsu, nagisa, akio, and the rest of the kids in that particular year. i say this because, at this point, it’s detrimental to the story. we’ve gotten to a point where we sort of need to know why these older characters act the way they do and why there’s so much bad blood between them. this will also help ritsuka understand SM more, too, but ill get to that in the next point. there’s also the fact that, you know, theres two potential people that could be ritsuka’s father, the fact that soubi’s mother and ritsuka’s mother were friends, and the fact that a kid suspiciously drown in knee-deep water. so, a lot of unsolved mysteries we haven’t gotten to yet.

so, we have ritsuka and kio finding out about the horrors of soubi’s past, and i think this will heavily impact the way ritsuka sees ritsu and septimal moon. right now, ritsuka seems to sort of respect ritsu, but i doubt he will after he finds out about everything, especially the fact that ritsu raped soubi when he was incredibly young and abused him in every way before and after that. this will cause ritsuka’s opinion of ritsu to drop incredibly low, which will affect what happens in the next part of this series.

ritsuka may also find out about the things soubi did for seimei and will find out that many of the crimes that seimei is held accountable for were actually done with soubi’s hands. i don’t believe in any way, shape, or form that soubi can be held accountable for this in this world, nor do i personally believe he should be held accountable, but i’m unsure if ritsuka will immediately see it this way. ritsuka will be forced to make a choice about good vs evil regarding soubi, and will be forced to come to the realization of just how strong seimei’s hold over soubi and nisei is and what the extent of his power is.

in addition, we’ll find out more about ritsuka’s family, too. i should say that im a firm believer that yun has been building up to something having to do with ritsuka’s father, who he is, and why he’s never present, and ive thought this ever since we got the indirect confirmation that seats are passed down throughout the family, meaning that it was most likely the elder aoyagi who held it beforehand. notice that i say elder aoyagi and not ritsuka’s father, because we don’t know if ritsuka’s father is seimei sr or aoyagi masaki, misaki’s biology professor in high school. this will play a huge amount into who ritsuka is and what he discovers about himself, and how it could even relate to seimei’s motives and his own memory loss.

the way i see it, ritsuka and seimei are masaki aoyagi’s kids. or, at the very least, seimei is his, but i personally believe ritsuka is, too. however, there’s a very real possibility that ritsuka thinks nowaki seimei--who will be referred to as seimei sr, mostly because i think it’s funny--is his father. i’m fairly certain that seimei sr is the one that ritsuka calls ‘dad’ and the person that we see for a couple panels in the early volumes of the manga, and im unsure if he knows that he was fathered by someone else. seimei jr alludes to knowing more about their family and why they’re named what they are named in an extra chapter about ritsuka’s birthday, but doesn’t say much about his family beyond that. regardless, there is something fucked up going on with the aoyagi family seniors, since misaki, ritsuka, and seimei jr all take the last name ‘aoyagi’. the kids look like aoyagi masaki, but the person ritsuka calls ‘dad’ is never home and is most definitely not aoyagi masaki. there’s also the fact that when seimei jr is being taken to the hospital for ritsuka’s birth in a flashback, we don’t actually see daddy. on top of this ‘dad’ is never home and ritsuka even states at one point while he’s tied up that he won’t come save him, and he doesn’t attend ritsuka’s school functions (in fact, soubi seems to be the person his school considers his parent, since he’s asked to come help out at an art museum and he offers to go to the dad event at school for ritsuka in early series loveless).

i’m of the belief that something is going on with the aoyagi parental lineage, since i don’t really see any evidence that ritsuka’s father is just absent a lot. there’s too much pointing to the fact that something suspicious is going on. and i think this is something seimei knows, but ritsuka does not. i also think that ritsuka will be finding out more about his memory loss, and i theorize that ritsuka at one point found out something he shouldn’t have, resulting in seimei ordering to have his memory taken, and that soubi is probably the one to have done this, given that soubi is able to alter memories, since he did so to hitomi in relation to natsuo and youji.

to put it simply, there’s a lot of very well-kept secrets that i think are about to come out, and it’s going to be detrimental when they do.

#loveless #aoyagi ritsuka #agatsuma soubi #minami ritsu #gomon mikado #akame nisei #sorry im posting this late #i dont feel like tagging the names the other way around lol #theory #post moonless battle series #my content

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momtaku · 7 years

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SnK Chapter 91 Poll Results

The chapter 91 poll closed with 473 entries.

“Utter Garbage” or “I trust Isayama”?

We’ll start with the scale questions. The range was 1-5, from “utter garbage” to “I trust Isayama”. I realize that isn’t an accurate scale, but “I trust Isayama” is the comment I hear most when discussing Isayama’s more questionable decisions.

RATE THE CHAPTER (451 responses)

The reaction to the chapter as a whole was pretty positive. Only 23% of people ranked it towards the “utter garbage” side of the scale. A majority were optimistic and almost 23% of respondents were downright confident Isayama is going to pull it off.

This chapter has really grown on the more times I read it.

[It] seems so naturally easy for a group of teens to gain success, while the character we learned to appreciate experienced nothing but death. it feels unfair [...] but if Isayama is doing this, there must be a reason.

While there were definitely aspects that deserve creation (for instance we all know the amnesia thing was lazy writing) but overall I don't think the chapter was bad. I think the kids' unrealistic attitudes in battle was purposeful juxtaposition to the way our main cast has experienced war--it shows the extent of the brainwashing ...

Although there are a lot of cool elements, it's all just handled so badly and doesn't flow well at all. I hate just about all of the new characters. Everything about it feels lazy, rushed, and badly developed. Though the war stuff and new tech is cool and refreshing to see.

I always enjoy seeing what outsiders think of Paradis and the main characters. I appreciate how Isayama handles themes such as government propaganda and the way each side in a war can see their cause as righteous and just.

I thought this chapter was actually pretty cool. I've fallen hopelessly in love with Gabi! Fingers crossed that Annie gets the f*** outta that crystal soon though!

Seeing the extent of Marleyan brainwashing was exceedingly well done.

The random amnesia thing was really lazy and half-assed.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE TIME SKIP? (452 responses)

I’ve never seen a scale so evenly divided. Opinions about the time skip are all over the place. A slim majority picked the safety of the middle option.

The time skip is perfect and Gabi is the best.

The time skip was needed for story progression but a lot of important questions and interactions were skipped in terms of character development. I just hope we get some of them in flashbacks and not have them completely disregarded

Timeskips should be illegal

After reading the full chapter and talking to someone else about it, I feel better about the timeskip. This chapter made me feel for RBA more, because they must've started out like Gabi and the rest.

Timeskips are cheap ?? Theres so much plot you could throw in there but noooooo

I believe there is no time skip but the chapter takes place during chapter 1-90 of the manga. So its showing a different perspective on the manga

Time skip means we will see older version of the main characters and that's both exciting and terrifying af

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE DIRECTION THE STORY HAS TAKEN?(452 responses)

Feeling about the direction of the story are almost a mirror image of the "Rate this Chapter” question. Despite disagreement over the time skip, confidence is still relatively high.

Love the story right now so much. The mix of ww1, fucked up war morals, fantasy is a personal favorite.

I will like this chapter, but only if Isayama concludes this story with a good twist, that is. If not, chapter 91 will in my opinion be the beginning of the end (end in a bad way).

Isayama fell asleep at the wheel

It's definitely not how I thought it would go, and it seems like it may only pay off if we exceed the previous 110 prediction for chapters. I've seen a couple of theories about the new characters and parallels between the Trost days for our characters. I will be extremely disappointed if we get no answer on what happened during the lost year of chapter 90. Or the lost 3 years between that and 91.

i think the story has potential still, and im interested to see how it will work out. im also just hoping this flash to the marley side isnt gonna be too long.

I think this is going to be really interesting and we get to see the other side of the fight and their perspective.

WHAT WAS YOUR FAVORITE PART OF THE CHAPTER (451 responses)

The reveal of the Jaw Titan was completely overshadowed by the brief glimpse of Reiner and insight into Marley. 57% of the vote focused on those two things.

Imagine how the poor kid that inherited "Cartman" felt like upon learning that that thing was their award for winning the marleyan hunger games.

I thought this was a pretty good world building chapter (despite the jarring time skip), especially since we've been waiting many chapters to see this place. I don't ADORE these new characters, I'm more intrigued, which is better then hating them. This is also a good set up chapter. I'm interested to see if Reiner will interact with these new characters. Since they look so similar to the 104th (design and personality), will he constantly be reminded of his past relationships with them? Plus, will he see some of himself in them (specifically Gabi) and through them reminding of himself we'll see his backstory? And is he going to just except his fate and get eaten, or be like "Screw this, nope, not dealing with it."

WHICH NEW CHARACTER DO YOU LIKE BEST? (447 responses)

Support for Gabi is simply overwhelming. Gabi (38%) and Jerwin (25%) were our favorite new cast members.

Gabi is such a badass, omg, do you see it Eren? This is how you getting out of horrible situations!

Dammit you Gabi! Fresh Face, Fresh Outlook in Life and Cute! I want to cosplay as her!

i feel like i'm the only one who doesn't like the new characters

I'm so confused but Gabi is fantabulous

Gabi is such a ray of sunshine

my orphanage is full i already have too many kids to adopt in this series

WHO DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO INHERIT REINER'S TITAN FORM? (434 responses)

Another close poll, Reiner keeping his titan form narrowly edges out Gabi as the armor recipient.

WHO DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO INHERIT ZEKE'S TITAN FORM? (440 responses)

If respondents have their way, Zeke’s short term future is very secure.

I also believe that Zeke will keep the Beast Titan (at least for a while), but ultimately Colt will be the one to inherit it. Zeke story is far from being over.

If Levi is taking down the beast titan and he finds out that not only is Zeke already dead, but his replacement is a weak-brows version of Erwin, I really hope it gives him pause. That could be such a heartbreaking, earth shattering moment for him and I hope Yams handles it right.

Attack on Clones

New character, same face. Most of these are self explanatory, but clearly I asked the wrong question with Falco since the majority picked “Other”. Grisha’s friend and fellow revolutionary Grice should have been an option.

Strong resemblance confirmed! I was especially please that the majority agree that Colt most closely resembles Erwin. Since I passionately hate the name “Colt”, I see this as permission to call him Erwin, Jr, or “Jerwin”.

Zophia is clearly the traumatized medic who inventoried dead!Marco)

I don't really see a strong resemblance between the new cast and the old.

When I saw the new characters I thought: would the children of our main cast look like them?

Part of me wants to say that some key characteristics about Gabi not only resemble Eren or a younger version of him, but may also express some of the characteristics Isayama originally wanted to use for Eren when he considered making him female

Colt=Commander Handsome 2.0

Colt looks like Kenny tbh

WHICH OF LEAPINGTITAN'S REACTIONS BEST DESCRIBE YOUR REACTIONS TO THE CHAPTER? (404 responses)

Ya’ll know these questions are unscientific and purely for my amusement with questions like this. I thought Nick’s live chapter reaction (soundboard) summed things up perfectly. At least one respondent disagreed.

theleapingtitan's reaction wasn't that funny, and for a SNK Chapter poll, seeing stupid stuff like this just takes away the authenticity of the poll

who tf is nick (jk lol praise the walls)

"WHAT" was legitimately the keyword for this chapter but I trust Isayama with the story and with our heroes+ I hope we'll get to see the Jaegers reunion before anything bad happens to Zeke tho

ARE YOU HAPPY WITH THE DIRECTION THE STORY IS TAKING? (448 responses)

This question is nearly identical to the scale question at the top of the poll, but it’s nice to see the information presented in a different way. It’s obvious to me that while the majority still have faith in Isayama, people are hesitant to fully embrace his storytelling.

I was waiting for the story to explain what's going on the other side of the ocean. But not from these "copy and pasted" brats. Reiner is seen in just one panel and Zeke is barely mentioned. That's a shame.

I'm interested to see where this goes but a good 75% of my thoughts are concentrated on what the main characters possibly look like after the time skip.

I honestly dislike how Isayama uses these new characters to show us what Marley and being a warrior is like, instead of showing us RBA and Zeke's past :(

Really enjoyed the way the characters were presented. It gives the reader the chance to see Marley's side of things without being forced to have a story-generated opinion on them (aka screaming at us to hate them) because quite frankly, I was rooting for those Warrior kids to succeed with their plan!

Very unexpected change of character view from our beloved heroes to their"enemy"'s point of view. But I also think it's come at a good time in the overall SnK storyline.

It's disappointing. There's so much potential in the series but I feel like Isayama just wants to get the series over with.

DO YOU THINK YMIR IS DEAD? (445 responses)

Clearly, we’re keeping the faith until we see a corpse.

In reference to Ymir, I don't believe she'd dead because unlike the Zeke and Reiner, no warriors are competing to claim her power, so unless they already dealt with the one to claim her I think they've kept her alive for now.

WHICH CHARACTERS DO YOU GENERALLY ENJOY THE MOST? (450 responses)

I’ve asked this question with each poll and in the past “The Vets” have had the edge. That changes now. I suspect many of Erwin’s fans are no longer interested in the series and certainly not interested enough to take a poll. This number may continue to decline since “The Vets” now consists of only Levi and Hange. Fans of the “The Warriors” remain consistent in their dedication.

Final thoughts

There were more chapter thoughts in this post. Fandom hope for ponytail Levi is strong! “Where’s Levi”, “Where’s Ymir” and “Bring back Annie” continue to be high on everyone’s mind.

Compiling this takes forever but I love getting a glimpse into what what others are thinking. If I didn’t publish your comment, please know that I read it. Thank you again for the support.

#snk poll #snk 91 #snk chapter 91 #thank you everyone for your participation

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