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wtffundiefamilies · 3 years

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Law student nuggestsofchicken (heh) has been summarizing Josh’s bond hearing. I’ll be pasting that here, but you’re better off finding them on reddit yourself. I’m finding their commentary really useful because I have no real idea how any of this shit works or is supposed to work. Trying to keep their emphasis as true as possible, but might miss some stuff.

Prosecution’s first witness direct: Special Agent Gerald Faulkner Special agent with homeland security investigations (HSI)

Been with them since April of 2009

Since 2010 been working federal child exploitation cases

Works with ICAC task force which is Internet Child Against Children.

Worked over 1000 child exploitation cases

Vast majority involved online pornography

In May of 2019, there was an investigation of a bittorrent program that noted activity in the upper northwest area of AR involving distribution of known CP images

Explanation of peer-to-peer file sharing networks. Known by law enforcement as commonly used to distribute CP

Bittorrent is a version of peer-to-peer sharing

On May 14 and 15, detective was able to download two files

-EDITED AND REMOVED- Faulkner describes graphically what the CSA depicts. If you're really curious some news outlets have reported on it. But our members predominately felt that it was not worth reading.

Police used ISP and the geographic location of the IP address to locate the activity and it got directed to the DHS task force to address it.

Police issued a warrant to the ISP to obtain the name and account of the user.

In October 2019, the ISP revealed the account in question was owned by Joshua James Duggar with an address in Springdale.

Apparently the mapping system was out of date, and the proper address was Wholesale Motor Cars for the account associated with the activity.

DHS obtained federal search warrant to search the car lot.

Warrant was executed on November 8, 2019 at 3:15pm.

Car lot is adjacent to Highway 12, between Springdale and Siloam Springs. At the time of the search warrant there were approximately 30 cars and and RV on the lot. Two buildings, a shed undergoing remodel and a metal building the size of a toll booth which they found out was the main office.

When officers arrived on the scene they encountered Pest and two individuals.

Police approached with a soft approach, no weapons drawn, explained that an investigation was underway with suspected contraband electronically. This was not an arrest warrant, so the three people there were free to leave.

Police did not tell them case-specific facts because it could spoil statements that could be made.

None of the vehicles, none of the uniforms worn indicated that it was a child exploitation case.

Josh produced cell phone and said he wanted to call his attorney. Police said the phone was under investigation and then seized the phone to prevent any spoliation of evidence.

Josh remained on scene during the investigations. He was not guarded by law enforcement during the search.

Police seized a desktop computer, a macbook laptop inside an RV, and Josh’s iPhone.

Government’s Exhibit 1 is the photograph of the Wholesale Motor Cars main office.

Government’s Exhibit 2 is a photograph of the desktop computer. Wallpaper has a photo of Josh, Anna, and their kids but the kids have been redacted.

After securing the scene, they asked Josh if he’d be willing to discuss the issues. He agreed to speak with them.

Conversation happened inside a government vehicle. Duggar was passenger side, other officer was in the rear seat, Faulkner was in driver’s seat.

Other officer received verbal consent from Duggar to record the interview.

Duggar spontaneously asked, “What is this about? Has anyone been downloading child pornography?”

At that point, no one had told Duggar that child pornography was an issue in this case.

Officers Mirandized Duggar his rights.

Duggar said he owned and operated the car lot since June 2018, that he owned the desktop computer they found, as well as the Macbook and the cell phone they seized.

Duggar said he owned his phone but other family members could have access to it.

Duggar declined to provide the password to the desktop or the phone to law enforcement.

Duggar said that he owned the Macbook but that other family members had access to it.

He said, in response to a question from law enforcement, that he was familiar with peer-to-peer file sharing networks but did not which to comment further. He said that his devices might have been associated with peer-to-peer file sharing.

He noted that TOR might have been accessed by the desktop

TOR is a browser used to access the dark web, which is a known source of CP.

At this point law enforcement did not have reason to believe TOR/dark web was an issue in this case.

When asked if he was familiar with bittorrent Duggar declined to answer that question.

At this point, law enforcement explained that the investigation involved someone had been using bittorrent or peer-to-peer networks from that car lot to access CP involving children between the ages of 5-10

When asked whether he had any reason to suspect or had seen anyone using his computer accessing CP Duggar said “I’d rather not answer that question.”

Officers found bittorrent and TOR on the desktop.

Officers found fucking Covenant Eyes on the computer.

Information from Covenant Eyes indicated the program was registered to Josh and Anna Duggar.

On May 13, 2019 a linux-partition had been installed on the computer.

A linux partition can divide the harddrive of the computer into two isolated sections that work independently.

The linux partition was password protected and the last four characters of the password were -REDACTED- but had been used for a variety of his accounts over years.

Linux partition side did not have Covenant Eyes installed on it, so activity would not have been detected by the account.

On the Macbook there was bittorrent as well as Covenant Eyes.

Duggar had backed up his iPhone to that Macbook which allowed law enforcement to obtain texts, photos, etc. from the Macbook

Law enforcement found iChat messages from May 13-16, 2016 on the computer.

Government’s Exhibit 3 is a forensic examination summary of May 13 and May 14 extracted from Duggar’s electronic devices.

D objects to moving Exhibit 3 into evidence because of lack of foundation, and argues that it was prepared for litigation purposes but the witness was not the expert who created it.

P provides some more foundation for the Exhibit and judge admits it.

Exhibit is displayed. Basically summarizes the sus computer activity in May 2019. Linux partition was created and on the same day Tor Browser was installed on that side of the partition.

On May 14, at 4:49pm, Pest sends text that says “Got stuck here and still not free yet. Im gonna aim for tomorrow just after lunch.”

On May 14, at 4:58pm Tor browser was used to access porn sites associated with rape and files associated with CP. Video was downloaded

At 5:38pm, user accessed bittorrent. Two videos were downloaded. (Little Rock Officer was notified)

At 5:41pm, user accessed TOR directory site and website associated with bittorrent.

On May 15, 2019 at 11:35am computer user downloads 3 torrent files associated with CP.

Throughout the course of the day on May 15, Josh Duggar sends texts to 22 members of the Duggar family asking them to pray for a motorcyclist who got in an accident by Wholesale Motors. Computer also gets used to write reviews online under the name “Joshua.”

There’s also geolocations of photos taken at the car lot by Josh’s phone, but that piece of evidence doesn’t get admitted because D objects to lack of foundation regarding the reliability of geolocation data

TW: At 5:25 user of desktop downloads a file called “DD” that is known in the ICAC circle. Faulkner says that this series ranks in the top 5 of the worst CP he’s had to examine.

Josh’s screen goes black, AUSA wants to double check that he’s still present, he turns his screen back on.

At 6:56 user of desktop downloads a zip that contains 65 images of CP.

On May 16, user of desktop downloads file called “Pedomom”

The zip had been opened and the CP images had been viewed by the desktop.

Approximately 200 images of CP were located on the desktop in unallocated space, which means someone tried to delete them.

Friends and family at the time testified that Josh had a pornography addiction.

CX: Special Agent Faulkner

(I’m not gonna include information that was repeated on direct. Just getting the points that D seems to think is damning)

Faulkner was training another agent at the time of this investigation

The Detective in Little Rock was able to detect an IP address, but not one particular device.

Individual devices can be recognized by a MAG(?) address, which did not happen here

Little Rock detective did not have an Network Investigative Technique warrant

P objects on this, noting that it’s a detention hearing. Judge agrees but allows D to develop its point

D asks whether Faulkner’s first time reviewing the images at issue was in October 2019. Faulkner says it was probably June 2019.

D brings up the search warrant affidavit which suggests that Faulkner first reviewed the images in October.

D kind of tries to impeach Faulkner with the affidavit but the affidavit statement doesn’t really say that the first time he reviewed the images was in October, just that he did review them in October.

Law enforcement thinks Josh was the only one working at the car lot on May 13, 14, 15, 2019

D tries to distinguish Josh’s personal electronic (the mac and the iPhone) as being Apple while the desktop was a PC.

I know I’m kind of batting down the points D is trying to make but as someone who’s done trial work I think it’s worth saying that Justin Gelfand is really solid. Very conversational and likeable and really seems to know the case.

Re-Direct of Faulkner by P:

While Josh technically turned himself in, he had received word from his attorney who had received word from DHS that there was going to be a warrant executed and that DHS agents followed him as Anna drove him to turn himself in, as they didn’t want Duggar arrested in an area where children were

Question from the judge:

Covenant Eyes was installed on both the Macbook and the desktop.

Judge asked when Covenant Eyes was installed, but Faulkner didn’t know

Any reports from Covenant Eyes would’ve been sent to Anna. But the Covenant Eyes report wouldn’t pick up on the CP because it wasn’t installed on the linux partition side.

Prosecution’s second witness direct: Diem Nguyen - Probation officer

Probation officer for 17 years

Factors considered in determining whether someone should be released: Natures and circumstances of the case, defendant’s criminal history, place of employment, resident situation

Presumption cases are cases where an individual is presumed to be detained and the burden is on the defendant to demonstrate that they should be released

A third party custodian is someone who vouches for the defendant in federal court while their case is pending

They are basically in charge of the defendant if the defendant is released from custody and ensures that they follow all conditions placed by the court.

Mr. LaCount Reaver and Ms. Maria Reaver are the proposed third parties in this case. Mr. Reaver works outside of the home in a full-time capacity at the VA. Mr. Reaver is a pastor and volunteers with jail ministries Ms. Reaver is a full time homemaker. Ms. Reaver was concerned regarding being left alone with Duggar as she was a female and he was a male. (note: Ms. Nguyen is not a good witness. Doesn’t seem like she knows where the prosecution is trying to take this and isn’t really answering the questions) Minors would be coming into the Reaver’s residence for piano lessons where Duggar would be Ms. Reaver is close friends with Josh’s parents and they attended the same church at one point. She feels that she and her husband should help his parents and Josh. Ms. Reaver said she’s a lot closer to Josh’s parents than to Josh himself Josh’s parents reached out to the Reavers for their assistance Ms. Reaver said she was familiar with the charges in question but she did not know the details of them. Both Mr. and Ms. Reaver had concealed carry licenses and had 3 rifles and 6 pistols at their resident. Nguyen asked if they had a gun safe to keep access away from Josh and Ms. Reaver said they would lock up the guns in a master bedroom closet. Ms. Reaver did not have a plan for what to do with the minors coming to the house but said that they would always be accompanied by another adult Duggar would be staying at a side bedroom that locks from the inside so Duggar couldn’t lock it himself, but he could exit the bedroom from an exterior door Nguyen thinks the Reavers “could” be suitable third-party custodians, however the minors coming to the home as well as the firearms causes the probation office some concern. There is internet at the residence but it is password protected. During the interview with Josh, Nguyen asked whether he was suffering from any addictions. He said no. Nguyen found a statement from Josh in 2015 where he admitted to a pornography addiction, but did not ask him about it. AUSA asks about molestation from Josh when he was younger. D objects claiming these records are sealed and leaked from tabloids, and deals with his conduct as a child. Judge overrules. Judge explains that she is concerned about the safety of the community. If the previous molestation issues had been handled in juvenile court it would’ve been sealed. But Duggar and his family have chosen to be public about these activities and admissions and they’re not too far in the past to still be relevant. Minors were 11, 10, 9, and 5 at the time of the incident, and Josh was 14. Nguyen recommends that Josh be detained and the presumption apply. Even if Reavers were suitable third-party custodians it wouldn’t mitigate the risk to the community.

CX: Probation Officer Nguyen

Reavers have no criminal history

No minors reside at the Reaver home

Reavers said they would do whatever they needed to do to be Josh’s third-party custodians

“If the firearms were removed from the home and if the piano lessons cease, would that be a suitable third party residence?” “Quite possibly.” -Justin Gelfand looks forlorn-

In the 17 months Josh has been aware of the investigation, Josh has not left the country.

Re-direct of Probation Officer Nguyen:

Re-iterates the sexual abuse of minors from years ago

Re-cross of Probation Officer Nguyen:

*missed this because I was taking my dog out to pee* But the bit I caught sounds like they were emphasizing that the probation office had the authority to detain Josh if he violates any of the release conditions.

-prosecution rests its case-

Defense First Witness Maria Reaver:

She’s Asian. Did not expect that

“Are you aware of the charges brought against Mr. Duggar?” “Some”

Aware of the two charges here

No criminal history

Has a place where Josh can live in her house

Lives in Washington County

Has a mother-in-law kind of suite in her home that Josh should live in

Would be willing to abide by any conditions given by court

Would report any broken conditions to the court

(Defense attorney Travis Story is….not as good as Gelfand. Lots of stumbling and unclear wording. The reason my summary of this testimony is so choppy is because that’s how it’s being presented. Reaver giving pretty much just one word answers)

Adult daughter teaches piano at the Reaver home

A few minors come over for piano lessons

Location of piano lessons could be moved to a different place

Has a place to move the fire arms if need be

Mr. Reaver leaves for work at 6:30am and gets home at 4pm

Ms. Reaver and her daughter would be alone at home with Josh. The daughter would come and go throughout the day, possibly leaving Ms. Reaver home alone with Josh.

Ms. Reaver would be OK being alone with Josh.

Wants to be the third party custodian to help the family and “minister” to them

Story just says “That’s admirable.” and i laughed bro you’re not the one testifying here??

Ms. Reaver is willing to serve as third party custodian regardless of whatever rules the court chooses to impose.

CX of Maria Reaver:

Reavers have neighbors, but each of them have about 5-10 acres of land so they’re pretty spread out.

Known the Duggar family for 5-6 years. From time-to-time would interact with Josh.

They’ve been inside the Duggar home. And been to a couple of weddings.

Never had a one-on-one conversation with Josh.

Never been alone with Josh.

Attended church them in 2015 when the sexual abuse allegations first came out, but wasn’t fully aware of them. Is aware of them now.

AUSA asks “Can you tell me what you know about the allegations?” Reaver pauses, is silent, and then says “Give me a minute.” Story objects, judge overrules.

“I don’t fully know everything but from my understanding there was some, uh, when he was younger, I’m not sure how old, maybe a teenager, that there was inappropriate touching of some of the minors.”

Was not aware that one of the minors was 5-years-old

“Does knowing that there was a 5 year old involved change your decision to serve as a third-party custodian?” “I’m looking at is as we are here to be as help, to the family, to Josh and Anna. To minister to them.”

Jim Bob called her husband and asked them to be the third party custodian because her husband and Jim Bob are good friends.

“Did you feel any pressure or obligation to serve as the third-party custodian?” “My husband has made the decision and I’m here to support that decision.”

More talk about ministry and serving others

If the conditions were violated she would alert the court before notifying her husband

Would not leave her adult daughter alone with Josh

“We don’t have internet-internet, our internet is in our phone, it’s like a hotspot. There’s no wifi. We don’t have cable. There is no hard wiring.” (side note: wtf?? It’s 2021)

Phones are password protected

Understands that if Josh is released to her home he could be there for 6 months.

Redirect of Maria Reaver:

Re iterates that she would alert the court directly if the conditions were violated

Questions from the judge:

First call if the conditions were violated would be to the US probation office (“Not your husband, not Jim Bob Duggar, not elders in the church”)

Daughter has been spoken to regarding relocation of the piano lessons

“This case has gotten a lot of publicity. And the last thing Mr. Duggar needs is an incident with a firearm.” Reaver says she’d remove firearm

Defense second witness: LaCount Reaver

Has firearms in the house, but would be willing to relocate them outside the house

Willing to serve as third-party custodian along with his wife

????THAT’S IT?? Literally 3 questions

CX:

Was aware of Duggars’ charges specifically

Was not aware of all the details, such as that toddlers were involved

But does not change his opinion of being the third party custodian

Jim Bob Duggar was the one who reached out to them first

JB asked if it was something he could think about, pray about, being a part of

JB referenced Reaver’s involvement with prison ministry as making him a potentially good third-party custodian

Has known the Duggars for 6-8 years

Knew them in 2015

Didn’t know the exact details but was familiar with “some charges” related to him

Knew that the minors resided in the house where Josh resided

Was not part of the church in 2005.

No hesitation about leaving his daughter or wife alone with Josh

No implication that he would get anything in return for housing Josh

He’s a volunteer chaplain at Washington County jail but that’s been halted because of COVID-19

Not necessarily interested in offering counseling for Josh

Willing to call US Probation directly if Josh violates conditions

Has “phone internet” and “uses that for the computer.”

Says he’s a “3 or 4” on a scale of 1-10 of tech savviness

Phone is locked with a pin

Did not know Josh is tech savvy

Last time he spoke with Josh one-on-one was more than a year ago

Not sure if his wife has ever had a one-on-one conversation with Josh

“Is it common practice in your marriage that when your wife interacts with men that there should be a chaperone there?” “I think that would be best.”

Says that his wife should be around Josh with another person, not necessarily a male, could be a daughter

Is a family, they discuss things, they both prayed and decided to do it

“When a family is in need and they ask you for help, I think that’s something anyone would do”

Questions from the judge:

Willing to remove firearms if Josh is released to his custody

Will under no circumstances reveal his password to his phone or computers to Josh

“If you or your wife or your daughter observe or learn about a violation by Mr. Duggar I need to hear you say that your first call will be the US probation officer who’s supervising this case?” He says yes.

Judge: “The time for prayer, and conversations with Jim Bob, and with the elders of the church, that will happen after calling the probation office.”

Defense closes case. Closing arguments now.

Judge asked both sides to keep closing arguments to ~5 minutes since it was getting late.

Prosecution closing:

Nature and circumstances of charges:

Josh intentionally used Bit Torrent to receive CP.

Intentionally used linux partitions to hide what he was doing

Covenant Eyes does not pick up on what’s going on behind the partition

Josh took steps to conceal his activity by doing it on his work computer and avoid the recognition of Covenant Eyes.

-description of how horrific the CP found on Josh’s computer was-

Emphasized that the partition was password protected using a password linked with Josh’s other accounts which indicates that Josh, and not another employee, was behind the partition

Timeline in Exhibits 3 and 4 demonstrate that Josh was the one using the computer in May to download CP and throughout the day texting his family and using the computer for other uses

Discussion of Josh committing sexual abuse when he was a teenager.

Josh’s lack of movement in the past 17 months does not necessarily mean he wont be a flight risk now that circumstances are different

Nature and seriousness of the danger to the community:

We know the extent and the steps Josh will take to hide his actions. We know the kind of material depicted in the CSA that Josh had. We know he has a sexual attraction to children.

Not sure if the Reavers, Ms. Reaver in particular, understand the task that she would have to take on as third-party custodians.

Ms. Reaver doesn’t generally wanna be alone with a male. They have guns. They have minors at their place for piano lessons. Doesn’t make sense that they’d want turn their entire life around to do a favor for a family friend.

We know Josh has a history of “hands on” abuse, we’ve seen how sneaky he can be, AUSA asks that he be detained.

Defense closing:

Josh is presumed innocent of what he’s accused of. A detention hearing is not the place to try this case.

Two prongs under Bail Reform Act: 1) Flight risk

DHS executed search warrant in November 2019, 17 months ago, but Josh has not fled since then. Voluntarily surrendered without issue.

Not a danger to the community. If law enforcement thought that he was a danger they could’ve detained him back in 2019, but they didn’t.

Probation officer Nguyen testified he has been fully compliant since he’s been arrested.

Judge asked the Reavers point blank if they were willing to report to the probation office first, and they said yes.

Law unambiguously points against detention, and the facts point against detention.

Court taking brief recess to collect thoughts and look through evidence. Asks Josh if he’s doing OK, or where he is in the detention center. He says “Sitting on a metal stool, Your Honor.”

Judge's thoughts:

Nature of circumstances of charges against Josh: Presumed innocent. But count 1 carries a mandatory minimum 5 year sentence. Count 2 could carry sentence of 20 years based on the evidence admitted at trial. Court views these charges as very serious. Court is concerned about the evidence describing those charges. It is concerning that that DD file is "some of the worst sexual abuse child pornography that he has seen in over a thousand cases." That concerns the courts.

The number of images concerns the court. The prepubescent age of the victims concerns the court. The sophistication of the person who downloaded the images concerns the court. It is not the average defendant who can access the Dark Web, who can use partition devices, and who can bypass significant surveillance programs.

Children are involuntary victims of pornography and sexual abuse. They're subject often to human trafficking and other circumstances we don't have time to address. The demand and download of child pornography fields the market for the production of this material. The forensic evidence suggests that a significant amount of effort was made to download a significant amount of child sexual material. The weight of the evidence is not insubstantial. That also weighs against Josh.

History and characteristics of Josh: Josh has a long history in Northwest Arkansas, he's married, has children. He has no drug or alcohol history. It seems that Josh has been involved in various businesses in Arkansas. Josh turned himself in and does not appear to have a history of other crimes. Josh did not seem to obstruct any investigation.

The court does not need to treat Josh differently than anyone else similarly situated. However, Josh's family has chosen to make their family life public. Although Josh has never been convicted of any crime, he has admitted to in the past touching children, which concerns the court. That was a public admission, and everyone at this hearing knows it. This concerns the court. What's particularly concerning is the age of Josh's sisters and the age of the children involved with the charges against him.

The court is mindful, however, that this conduct happened a long time ago. And it happened when Josh was a child. That fact, and that fact alone, are in Josh's favor. It is concerning to court that Josh has committed that he has an issue with pornography; that is different than child pornography. But what the court has heard is that prior to images being downloaded to Josh's computer, Covenant Eyes was installed which is a program that acts as a deterrent. The court has also heard testimony that Josh's wife may have been his accountability partner on that. The court is not making a determination on that, but it concerns the court.

The court is concerned that the ages of the children involved are very similar to the age of Josh's children and the ages of his nieces and his nephews. The court keeps coming back to the age of the children Josh interacts with on a daily basis and is concerned.

Seriousness of the danger Josh poses to the community: The court does not know. Josh has not been convicted of being a danger to anyone. There is no criminal history that suggests Josh has displayed a pattern of violence to anyone. But Josh's children, his sibling's children, and his minor brothers and sisters are all part of the community that need to be protected from him.

This is a very close call. The U.S. Attorney has not met its burden.

Josh Duggar will be released on very strict conditions:

- Cannot be returned to his guest house or TTH

- Court is not interested in second chances. Don't fuck up with the Reavers. (paragraphsed)

- Tomorrow Josh will be released to the Reavers with close GPS monitoring. Restricted to this residence except for working, education, church, medical services, meeting with lawyers, court ordered obligation, or other activities approved IN ADVANCE by the probation office.

- May not possess or view pornography or erotica of any kind

- Court does not think it has the technology to limit Josh's use. Josh cannot have computers, phones, smart TVs, gaming systems, etc. He may not ask for the passwords from the Reavers or her daughter.

- Josh can get a jitterbug phone to contact counsel as long as it's approved by a probation officer.

- Josh cannot leave the Western District of Arkansas.

- Josh can have unlimited contact with his children as long as their mother is present. Josh cannot have contact with any other minor children including siblings, family members, piano students, etc.

- Not a requirement but a recommendation: Plan activities based on who he might run into. Avoid birthday parties, etc.

- No substances, drugs or alcohol

- Cannot actually or constructively possess a firearm

- Must surrender passport and not obtain a new passport

- May not violate any state or local law

- Must provide a DNA sample

- Must appear in court as requested

- Tomorrow must sign an appearance bond

#Josh Duggar #2021 #duggar family #reddit #sin in the camp #team legitimate rape

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fundienames · 4 years

Text

Bates Name Overview

Welcome to name post #2! I hope you all are ready for some more consistent data! The Duggar’s names were all over the place to keep with the theme, but the Bates’ chose whatever they liked, which led to better trends!

Popularity

Each name is ranked by how popular it was in the year the person was born, certain names (ex. Addallee) do not have data and will be noted separately.

*All data is from Social Security Records*

Most Popular

First Names:

Willam* (20)

Alyssa (26)

Zachary (29)

Erin (44)

Isaiah (45)

*Lawson’s first name

Middle Names:

Grace (19)

Wyatt (57)

Nathaniel (75)

Hope (196)

Elise (273)

Least Popular

First Names:

Michael* (747)

Trace (497)

Josie (320)

Ellie (172)

Tori (159)

*This is the data for girls named Michael, in 1990 boys named Michael had the #1 spot

Middle Names:

Courage (847)

Layne (789)

Brianne (453)

Joy (395)

Ezekiel (333)

No Data

Callie-Anna is using the average of the popularities of the names Callie and Anna.

Carlin

Warden

Addallee

Judson

Jeb

Gilvin

Lawson

Whitfield

Kellyn

Colton

Syllables

First Names:

Average: 2 (2.3)

4 Syllables: Callie-Anna

3 Syllables: Zachary, William (Lawson), Alyssa, Isaiah, Addallee

2 Syllables: Michael, Erin, Kenneth (Nathan), Tori, Josie, Katie, Jackson, Warden, Ellie, Judson

1 Syllable: Trace, Jeb

Middle Names:

Average: 2 (1.9)

4 Syllables: Nathaniel, Ezekiel

2 Syllables: Gilvin, Christian, Elise, Lawson, Whitfield, Brianne, Kellyn, Justice, Courage, Bridget, Wyatt, Colton

1 Syllable: Joy, Layne, Grace, Hope, Rose

Letters

First Names:

Average: 6 (5.9)

9 Letters: Callie-Anna

8 Letters: Addallee

7 Letters: Jackson, Zachary, Michael, William (Lawson), Kenneth (Nathan)

6 Letters: Judson, Alyssa, Warden, Isaiah, Carlin

5 Letters: Trace, Josie, Katie, Ellie

4 Letters: Tori, Erin

3 Letters: Jeb

Middle Names:

Average: 6 (6.1)

9 Letters: Christian, Nathaniel, Whitfield

8 Letters: Justice, Courage

7 Letters: Brianne, Ezekiel, Bridget

6 Letters: Gilvin, Lawson, Kellyn, Colton

5 Letters: Elise, Layne, Grace, Wyatt

4 Letters: Rose, Hope

3 Letters: Joy

That’s all for this post! Reach out via my ask box if you have any questions or requests! I am psyched to be tracking this with you all. There will probably be more posts today...

-fundienames

#bates family #bringing up bates #names #fundienames

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aliceviceroy · 6 years

Link

Rachael Denhollander’s college-aged abuser began grooming her when she was 7. Each week, as Denhollander left Sunday school at Westwood Baptist Church in Kalamazoo, Mich., he was there to walk her to her parents’ Bible-study classroom on the other side of the building. He brought Denhollander gifts and asked her parents for her clothing size so he could buy her dresses. He was always a little too eager with a hug. The Denhollanders led one of the church’s ministries out of their home, which meant the man would visit their house regularly, often encouraging Rachael to sit on his lap, they recalled.

The man’s behavior caught the attention of a fellow congregant, who informed Sandy Burdick, a licensed counselor who led the church’s sexual-abuse support group. Burdick says she warned Denhollander’s parents that the man was showing classic signs of grooming behavior. They were worried, but they also feared misreading the situation and falsely accusing an innocent student, according to Camille Moxon, Denhollander’s mom. So they turned to their closest friends, their Bible-study group, for support.

The overwhelming response was: You’re overreacting. One family even told them that their kids could no longer play together, because they didn’t want to be accused next, Moxon says. Hearing this, Denhollander’s parents decided that, unless the college student committed an aggressive, sexual act, there was nothing they could do.

No one knew that, months earlier, he already had.

One night, while sitting in the family’s living room, surrounded by people, the college student masturbated while Denhollander sat on his lap, she recalls. It wasn’t until two years later that she was able to articulate to her parents what had happened. By that point, the student had left the church. Moxon was furious that her church community hadn’t listened. But she never told anyone what had happened to Rachael. “We had already tried once and weren’t believed,” Moxon says. “What was the point?”

Today, Denhollander can see how her church, which has since shut down, failed to protect her. But as a child, all she knew from her parents was that her abuse had made their church mad and that she wasn’t able to play with some of her friends. She blamed herself — and resolved that, if anyone else ever abused her, she wouldn’t mention it.

And so when Larry Nassar used his prestige as a doctor for the USA Gymnastics program to sexually assault Denhollander, she held to her vow. She wouldn’t put her family through something like that again. Her church had made it clear: No one believes victims.

Across the United States, evangelical churches are failing to protect victims of sexual abuse among their members. As the #MeToo movement has swept into communities of faith, several high-profile leaders have fallen: Paige Patterson, the president of Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary, was forced into early retirement this month after reports that he’d told a rape victim to forgive her assailant rather than call the police. Illinois megachurch pastor Bill Hybels similarly retired early after several women said he’d dispensed lewd comments, unwanted kisses and invitations to hotel rooms.

So many Christian churches in the United States do so much good — nourishing the soul, comforting the sick, providing services, counseling congregants, teaching Jesus’s example, and even working to fight sexual abuse and harassment. But like in any community of faith, there is also sin — often silenced, ignored and denied — and it is much more common than many want to believe. It has often led to failures by evangelicals to report sexual abuse, respond appropriately to victims and change the institutional cultures that enabled the abuse in the first place.

Without a centralized theological body, evangelical policies and cultures vary radically, and while some church leaders have worked to prevent abuse and harassment, many have not. The causes are manifold: authoritarian leadership, twisted theology, institutional protection, obliviousness about the problem and, perhaps most shocking, a diminishment of the trauma sexual abuse creates — especially surprising in a church culture that believes strongly in the sanctity of sex. “Sexual abuse is the most underreported thing — both in and outside the church — that exists,” says Boz Tchividjian, a grandson of Billy Graham and a former Florida assistant state attorney.

As a prosecutor, Tchividjian saw dozens of sexual abuse victims harmed by a church’s response to them. (In one case, a pastor did not report a sexual offender in his church because the man had repented. The offender was arrested only after he had abused five more children.) In 2004, Tchividjian founded the nonprofit organization Godly Response to Abuse in the Christian Environment (GRACE), which trains Christian institutions in how to prevent sexual abuse and performs independent investigations when churches face an abuse crisis. Tchividjian says sexual abuse in evangelicalism rivals the Catholic Church scandal of the early 2000s.

Diagnosing the scope of the problem isn’t easy, because there’s no hard data. The most commonly referenced study shows how difficult it is to find accurate statistics. In that 2007 report, the three largest insurers of churches and Christian nonprofits said they received about 260 claims of sexual abuse against a minor each year. Those figures, though, exclude groups covered by other insurers, victims older than 18, people whose cases weren’t disclosed to insurance companies and the many who, like Denhollander, never came forward. In other words, the research doesn’t include what is certainly the vast majority of sexual abuse. The sex advice columnist and LGBT rights advocate Dan Savage, tired of what he called the hypocrisy of conservatives who believe that gays molest children, compiled his own list that documents more than 100 instances of youth pastors around the country who, between 2008 and 2016, were accused of, arrested for or convicted of sexually abusing minors in a religious setting.

The problem in collecting data stems, in part, from the loose or nonexistent hierarchy in evangelicalism. Catholic Church abusers benefited from an institutional cover-up, but that same bureaucracy enabled reporters to document a systemic scandal. In contrast, most evangelical groups prize the autonomy of local congregations, with major institutions like the Southern Baptist Convention having no authority to enforce a standard operating procedure among member churches. This means researchers attempting to study this issue have to comb through publicly available documents.

That’s what Wade Mullen, the director of the M.Div. program at Capital Seminary & Graduate School, did as a part of his PhD dissertation. He collected reports of evangelical pastors or ministers charged with a crime in order to understand how evangelical organizations respond to crisis. Over 2016 and 2017, Mullen found 192 instances of a leader from an influential church or evangelical institution being publicly charged with sexual crimes involving a minor, including rape, molestation, battery and child pornography. (This data did not include sexual crimes against an adult or crimes committed by someone other than a leader.)

His findings help explain a 2014 GRACE report on Bob Jones University, one of the most visible evangelical colleges in the country. The study showed that 56 percent of the 381 respondents who reported having knowledge of the school’s handling of abuse (a group that included current and former students, as well as employees) believed that BJU conveyed a “blaming and disparaging” attitude toward victims. Of the 166 people who said they had been victims of sexual abuse before or during their time at BJU, half said school officials had actively discouraged them from going to the police. According to one anonymous respondent, after he finally told the police about years of sexual abuse by his grandfather, a BJU official admonished him that “[you] tore your family apart, and that’s your fault,” and “you love yourself more than you love God.” BJU officials declined to comment for this article.

After he finally told the police about years of sexual abuse by his grandfather, a BJU official admonished him that ‘[you] tore your family apart, and that’s your fault,’ and ‘you love yourself more than you love God.’

That same year, 18 volunteers, staff members and interns at the Institute in Basic Life Principles (including many underage girls) accused its founder, Bill Gothard, of sexual harassment, molestation and assault. Gothard had enormous sway over a small but tight-knit collection of evangelical home-schooling families around the country. One of those families was the Duggars, stars of a TLC reality television show. Josh Duggar, the eldest of 19 kids and former executive director of the conservative Family Research Council’s political action group FRC Action, lost his job after reports that he molested four of his siblings and a babysitter as a teenager. For years Duggar’s abuse stayed hidden as his parents and an Arkansas state trooper — now in prison himself on charges of child pornography — declined to disclose the crimes. (The suit against Gothard was dropped. Duggar’s actions are now outside the statute of limitations. Neither responded to requests for comment.)

Sovereign Grace Churches (SGC), an influential chain of congregations, many located on the East Coast, allegedly failed to report sexual abuse claims during the ’80s and ’90s to the authorities and caused secondary trauma to victims through pastoral counseling, according to an extensive investigation by Washingtonian magazine. In one instance, an SGC pastor allegedly told a wife whose husband sexually abused their daughter to remain with him. When she asked how she could possibly stay married to a man attracted to children, she was told that her husband “was not attracted to his 11-year-old daughter but rather to the ‘woman’ she ‘was becoming.’ ” Two years into the husband’s prison sentence, SGC pastor Gary Ricucci wrote in support of his parole using church letterhead, and the church welcomed him back to the community after his release.

The wife no longer attends. Asked to comment on these episodes, SGC Executive Director Mark Prater emailed a statement: “We encourage all of our churches to immediately report any allegations or suspicions of abuse to criminal and civil authorities, regardless of state law or the passage of time.” He cited a program implemented in 2014, the “MinistrySafe child safety system,” that teaches member churches how to deal with reports of abuse. Ricucci — who, like other local pastors, does not answer to SGC officials — did not respond to requests for comment.

The evangelical defense of God-fearing offenders extends to the political realm. Franklin Graham, CEO of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association, said President Trump’s “grab them by the p—y” comments and other crude language didn’t matter because “all of us are sinners.” During Roy Moore’s recent Senate campaign, a poll conducted by JMC Analytics of likely Alabama voters found that 39 percent of evangelicals were more likely to vote for Moore after multiple accusations that he’d initiated sexual contact with teenagers when he was in his 30s. “It comes down to a question [of] who is more credible in the eyes of the voters — the candidate or the accuser,” Jerry Falwell Jr., president of the evangelical Liberty University, said at the time. “… And I believe [Moore] is telling the truth.”

Jerry Falwell, left, president of Liberty University, said he believed Senate candidate Roy Moore instead of the women who accused him last fall of sexual misconduct. Moore, right, lost a special election for Senate in Alabama late last year after several women said he had made sexual advances toward them when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s. (Falwell: Alex Wong/Getty Images; Moore: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

It was the same message 7-year-old Denhollander heard: Stay silent, because the church won’t believe you.

Why are so many evangelicals (who also devote resources to fighting sex trafficking or funding shelters for battered women) so dismissive of the women in their own pews? Roger Canaff, a former New York state prosecutor who specialized in child sexual abuse, tells me that many worshipers he encountered felt persecuted by the secular culture around them — and disinclined to reach out to their persecutors for help in solving problems. This is the same dynamic that drove a cover-up culture among ultra-Orthodox communities in New York, where rabbis insisted on dealing with child abusers internally, according to several analysts.

But among evangelicals, there is an added eschatological component: According to a 2010 survey by the Pew Research Center, 41 percent of Americans believe that the end times will occur before 2050. In some evangelical teachings, a severe moral decay among unbelievers precedes the rapture of the faithful. Because of this, many evangelicals see the outside world as both a place in need of God’s love and a corrupt, fallen place at odds with the church. (“New Secularism is an attempt to undermine and destroy Christianity,” warned a headline in Christian Today a few years ago.)

This attitude could explain the 2017 case of an assistant pastor at Agape Bible Church in Thornton, Colo., who was convicted and sentenced to 13 years in prison for repeatedly sexually assaulting an adolescent girl. The police investigation revealed that church leaders and the girl’s father agreed not to contact the police because the “biblical counseling” received within the church was sufficient to handle the case. According to an officer who interviewed the father, “His interest was in protecting the church and its reputation more than protecting his daughter.”

Partly, church leaders tend to circle the wagons out of arrogance. “I’ve worked with churches across the theological spectrum, from fundamentalist to progressive,” Tchividjian says. “They say: ‘I’m the man God’s placed in charge. I have the Bible. I know how to handle this.’ ”

But another, less visible problem is the overall attitude toward sex. Sexual sin is talked about constantly, and extramarital sex is considered a heinous moral lapse. (A student at Patterson’s seminary who told him she’d been date-raped was disciplined for being in the man’s room) It stands to reason that churches don’t want to air an epidemic of wickedness among their flocks.

When congregants believe that their church is the greatest good, they lack the framework to accept that something as awful as sexual abuse could occur within its walls; it is, in the words of Diane Langberg, a psychologist with 35 years of experience working with clergy members and trauma survivors, a “disruption.” In moments of crisis, Christians are forced to reconcile a cognitive dissonance: How can the church — often called “the hope of the world” in evangelical circles — also be an incubator for such evil? “Christians must decide whether to give into the impulse to minimize the disruption of the abuse, or let themselves see a serious problem in their community and deal with it,” Langberg says. “It’s when they find out if they truly believe what they say they believe.”

As an adult, Rachael Denhollander once again found herself at the center of one of these disruptions. The church she attended, Immanuel Baptist in Louisville, was actively supporting former SGC president C.J. Mahaney’s return to ministry. Mahaney had been asked to step down from his role in 2011 because of “various expressions of pride, unentreatability, deceit, sinful judgment and hypocrisy.” In 2012, a class-action lawsuit held that eight SGC pastors, including Mahaney, had covered up sexual abuse in the church. Mahaney and the SGC claimed vindication when a judge dismissed the lawsuit for eclipsing the statute of limitations. In 2016, Immanuel Baptist Church repeatedly invited Mahaney to preach at its weekend services.

Denhollander says she told her church’s leaders this was inappropriate, as Mahaney had never acknowledged a failure to properly handle allegations of sexual abuse under his leadership. But the church ignored her, and when Denhollander went public with accusations against Larry Nassar in the Indianapolis Star, a pastor accused her of projecting her story onto Mahaney’s. When she persisted, he told her she should consider finding a new church. (Maheney did not respond to requests for comment.)

“It is isolating and heartbreaking to sit in a church service where sexual abuse is being minimized,” Denhollander says. “The damage done [by abuse] is so deep and so devastating, and a survivor so desperately needs refuge and security. The question an abuse survivor is asking is ‘Am I safe?’ and ‘Do I matter?’ And when those in authority mishandle this conversation, it sends a message of no to both questions.”

At an untold number of Christian churches and institutions, the silence on sexual abuse is deafening. Statistically, evangelical pastors rarely mention the issue from the pulpit. According to research from the evangelical publishing company LifeWay, 64 percent of pastors said they talk about sexual violence once a year, or even less than that. Pastors drastically underestimate the number of victims in their congregations; a majority of them guessed in the survey that 10 percent or less might be victims. But in 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that 1 in 4 women (women make up approximately 55 percent of evangelicals) and 1 in 9 men have been sexually abused. There is no evidence suggesting those numbers are lower inside the church.

Those who do publicly preach on sexual abuse are often stunned by the response. Kathy Christopher, a pastor to women at Christian Assembly Church in Los Angeles, first spoke on the topic while sharing the story of her own abuse. Immediately, fellow survivors opened up about their experiences, Christopher says. “Sadly, my story was not an unusual story. It was heartbreaking to see how many people needed to talk about this trauma in their past.”

When a judge sentenced Nassar for molesting hundreds of young girls, Denhollander was there; she spoke at length in the courtroom, reminding Nassar that the Christian concept of forgiveness comes from “repentance, which requires facing and acknowledging the truth about what you have done in all of its utter depravity and horror, without mitigation, without excuse, without acting as if good deeds can erase” it.

It was a word of warning for a community that, writ large, has been complicit in minimizing or enabling rape, molestation and emotional abuse within its walls. Denhollander also said that one of the prices she paid for calling out Nassar was losing her church, referring to her experience at Immanuel Baptist.

When the pastors there saw Denhollander’s statement, they began to understand the damage they had done. In a statement released by email this week, the board said the church had sinned in its treatment of the Denhollanders and had sought their forgiveness. (Denhollander says she accepts the apology.) Officials also said that SGC pastors will no longer be speaking at their church while accusations against them remain unanswered. “In the last few months God has increased our sensitivity to the concerns of the abused,” the statement reads. “He has called us to look at our own shortcomings as pastors. He has allowed us to seek and receive forgiveness from those we have failed.”

Immanuel Baptist Church faced a choice, the same one before many American churches today: Face the sin in their midst and make the church a place that follows the biblical command to care for the powerless and victimized — or avoid the disruption and churn out another generation of silenced victims who learn, like Denhollander did, that the church isn’t safe.

#churchtoo #rape culture #christianity

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fundiebabynamebible · 2 years

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Duggar data said J**h would get about 15 years. What would he be facing in England? Are laws tough where you are?

TW CSA discussion

First of all, if Josh was in the UK he would count himself lucky if he even made it to trial unscathed. People like a bit of personal justice here so he probably would've been beaten up a few times already9or worse), especially if he lived in a rougher area. I don't condone violence but I'm not going to sit here and say he wouldn't deserve it.

Unfortunately the laws here are absolutely shit. I only know punishments for animal cruelty, murder and manslaughter in depth as I usually tend to avoid crimes involving children because it makes me so angry. I had to do a bit of research to answer your question. For one count of 'possession of a prohibited image of a child Josh would be facing a maximum of ten years inside. TEN YEARS!!!. And wait, this is the worst bit... he'd probably only serve half of that on good behaviour. It's basically a holiday. First time offenders could probably get community service with a tag, although I did read that the minimum sentence is 26 weeks. Diabolical!

For the other charge of distribution the minimum is 2 years with a maximum of 10 years. For production the minimum is 6 years and maximum of 10 years.

There was a case recently of a 65 year old man in Norfolk who had 19 charges against him for uploading CSA material to the dark web. He was sentenced to 20 years with 12 being served in prison and 8 out on licence. With our laws though I won't be surprised if he's out on licence in 5 years with good behaviour.

Offenders will also be required to sign the sex Offenders Register, basically a way of tracking all the ex offenders here. There are currently over 95,000 people on there in a population of 67 million. I know a few people who probably belong on there as well but unfortunately the laws just aren't strict enough. Imagine a 40-50 year old asking a 16/17 year old to send them nudes.🤮

#ask #anon #tw csa mention #tw csa #tw josh duggar #josh duggar

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duggardata · 1 year

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[More–or–Less] Confirmed: Lauren and Kendra Both Gave Birth in 2022

On October 30, 2022, Joy (Duggar) + Austin Forsyth posted a video on their YouTube, which documented them telling their families that they were expecting Baby #3. About 5½ Minutes in, Joy Facetimes Jim Bob and tells him the news. She asks what 'number' grandchild this one is, and Jim Bob says: "Number 30."

Up until Joy's video, Duggar Data had 27 GrandDuggars on the list— 25 Already Born, and 2 In Utero (Duggar–Wissmann #1, Forsyth #3). For months, it has also been widely speculated—but annoyingly, not confirmed—that Lauren and Kendra had had their 2nd and 4th Child, respectively, earlier this year.

Now that we know Forsyth #3 is GrandDuggar #30—and thus, that our list is missing not one, not two, but 3 Grands—it is clear that we were on to something with our speculation... From now on, Duggar Data considers Duggar–Swanson 2 (Baby C) and Duggar–Caldwell #4 to be "confirmed" births.

When did they give birth, exactly? Good question! We don't know, and the data is very limited, but here's my best attempt to estimate with what we've got...

Baby C Was Probably Born In March.

Let's start with Josiah + Lauren. Here are the three major facts we have to work with...

Josiah + Lauren didn't attend Jer + Hannah's Wedding on March 26, 2022. They weren't in any of the photos or video, plus Josiah was conspicuously absent from the wedding party. (The Duggar Boys closest to Jed's age, from Joe to James, were groomsmen, but Si was inexplicably skipped.)

While at church on April 3, 2022, Josiah + Lauren were seen with an infant car seat at their feet. We'll call this the Car Seat Photo.

During church on September 26, 2022, Lauren was seen with an unknown baby on her lap. The baby wasn't wearing a bow. We'll call it the Baby On Lap Photo.

Additionally, many of y'all suspected that Lauren was expecting at Truett's Sex Reveal (October 4, 2021).

With the lack of a bow, the Baby On Lap Photo suggests Baby C is a boy. (This isn't confirmed.) Regardless, we know from the Car Seat Photo that he had arrived by April 3, 2022. Duggar Data thinks that he was born fairly close to then, and that that explains Si + Lauren's absence from Jer + Hannah's Wedding. (If Lauren was full–term, or had very recently given birth, they might've been reasonably unable or unwilling to travel so far, even for a wedding.) Given this, Duggar Data estimates that Lauren gave birth in March of 2022. The Sex Reveal photo also fits w/ a March arrival. Lauren would've been 4.5 Months Along—and very possibly "showing"—at the time.

So, we'll estimate that Lauren gave birth in March. Given my usual rule for estimating vague data like this, Duggar Data will use March 16, 2022—i.e., the midpoint of the month—as an Approximate DOB for Baby C, until and unless we get better data.

Duggar–Caldwell #4 Was Probably Born In May.

Moving on to Joe + Kendra... Here's the evidence that Baby #4 has arrived—

On or around June 16, 2022, Reddit discovered a photo of Joe + Kendra at a restaurant with their 3 Children, plus an unidentified infant (~3 Weeks Old) in a stroller. We'll call it the Stroller Photo.

On or around October 15, 2022, Christina Caldwell posted to FB and referenced having "grandbabies"—not just one grandbaby—born since February 2021.

Christina's October 15th Post also included photos, including one where you can see a woman in the background nursing. While her face isn't visible, her feet are and Reddit believes they're Kendra's feet. We'll call this the Nursing Photo.

Additionally, many of y'all thought Kendra looked pregnant at Jer + Hannah's Wedding on March 26, 2022.

Christina's October 15th Facebook Post references "grandbabies"—plural, rather than "grandbaby," singular—that have been born since February 2021. Honestly, this makes no sense unless Kendra + Joe have had a 4th Child. Brooklyn was born in February 2021, so she's the first "grandbaby" born in or after February 2021. And, we know she is not the only one, because Christina said "grandbabies." And, there's no one else who could've produced the other grandchild, as Kendra is the only Caldwell Sibling who is married. Barring an out–of–wedlock birth, which is so unlikely, it must be Kendra + Joe's.

As for when Baby #4 arrived... Assuming s/he is the baby from the Stroller Photo, it must've been some time before June 16, 2022. In the photo, the baby was said to be 3ish Weeks Old. Since we don't have anything else to go on, let's just assume the baby was 21 Days Old on June 16, 2022... That gives us an Approximate DOB of May 26, 2022.

None of the other evidence is overly helpful as far at the DOB goes; however, all of the evidence could be consistent with a birth in May. At Jer + Hannah's Wedding in Late March, Kendra looked pregnant. If she had the baby in Late May, she would've been 7 Months Along and obviously showing. The Nursing Photo could also be consistent with a May birth. We don't know when that photo is from, but there is a good chance Kendra is still nursing if she gave birth in May—so, there's no reason to think it can't be her in that photo.

TL;DR We don't know exactly when Lauren and Kendra gave birth, but Duggar Data is using the following Approximate DOBs—

Duggar–Swanson #2 March 16, 2022

Duggar–Caldwell #4 May 26, 2022

Both of these are rough estimates; however, I'm fairly sure the birth order was Lauren, then Kendra.

#joe and kendra #duggar caldwell 4 #josiah and lauren #duggar swanson 2 #confirmed

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keepingupwithfundies · 3 years

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According to Duggar data are abbey and Lauren past due for a second baby? Or do they not have data yet because they’ve only had one so far?

So in general I would say that the best person to send this ask to was @duggardata but I know she’s also been really busy and I don’t think you can search her blog if you don’t have a tumblr account. So I quickly checked and in the next 6 months post she has:

03–26–21 Josiah + Lauren (Swanson) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2. (1 SD Late)

06–13–21 John + Abbie (Burnett) Duggar announce Pregnancy #2.

It seems one couple is running a bit behind predictions and one is not!

-T

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theotherdatablog · 5 years

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Breaking: Sam and Alyssa Morton are Definitely Expecting

Thanks to @bates-duggars-more for the information!

On July 27, 2019, Alyssa (Campana) Morton posted a comment on the public Instagram of another influencer, announcing that she was pregnant. An Instagram account called She Plus Five, which Alyssa follows, asked her followers to list their birth years along with those of their children. Alyssa’s comment stated: “94, 96, 16, 17, 18, & early 20. 😅” Alyssa herself was born in 1994 and Sam in 1996. After their wedding in March of 2016, Norah arrived in December 2016, followed by Victoria in December 2017 and Audrey in December 2018. Since a baby conceived now would be born in early May of 2020, “early 20″ would refer to a current pregnancy. She Plus Five even asked how far along Alyssa was in her pregnancy. As such, Morton Data officially regards Alyssa as pregnant as of July 29, 2019.

How does this match up with and influence the data? After the jump...

When Is She Due? When Will the Child Be Born?

As of right now, we have no statements from Alyssa other than that she is due in the early part of 2020. Alyssa hasn’t officially announced all of her births, but when she has made her pregnancies evident, there have been an average of 143 Days between the reveal and the birth. Alyssa has also given birth On-Time, on average. If Alyssa kept to that exact schedule, she would be due and give birth on December 17, 2019. However, Alyssa is due in 2020, so December 17 can’t possibly be her due date. As a result, her due date, and her child’s birth date, have been moved forward two Standard Deviations of her Reveal Time to Birth to reach a date that matches with her own statements.. Alyssa is predicted to give birth on January 10, 2020. A January 10th due date would make Alyssa 16 Weeks, 1 Day Along as of the announcement.

Reveal Time to Birth

Since many members of the Morton family don’t announce their due dates, or don’t give an exact date, Morton Data instead tracks the time between a pregnancy announcement/reveal and the birth of the resulting child. Since Baby Morton is due in 2020 but was announced on the 27th, Sam and Alyssa’s average Reveal Time to Birth can’t apply here. Baby’s projected birthday of January 10 puts the expected Reveal Time to Birth for this pregnancy at 167 Days. Their Average RTTB has moved to 149 Days (6 Days More). The Morton Average RTTB remains 169 Days (No Change).

Spacing Between Births

Before this announcement, Sam and Alyssa were reproducing at a rate of 1 Child Every 329 Days. Even though just over a year is a short gap between children even for fundies, the gap to Baby #4 will be their longest gap yet. A due date of January 1st, 2020 would put this spacing at 389 Days, longer than their record of 368 Days (Norah to Victoria). The Morton Predictor’s projected due date of January 10, 2019 puts their upcoming gap at 398 Days and their new average at 347 Days (18 Days Longer). The Morton Family Average Child Spacing has moved from 544 Days to 541 Days (3 Days Shorter).

Total Children

Right now, the Morton Predictor expects Sam and Alyssa to have 25 Children, the same number as was expected before the announcement. The Total Number of GrandMortons is now 145 (1 More), since the change in Average Child Spacing has bumped John and Campbell up from 16 Children to 17.

#sam and alyssa #pregnancy

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spurgie-cousin · 3 years

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hi spurgiecousin, I just saw duggar data post about how Travis bought a house in Camden county. I live in NJ so I knew they were close but oof that one rang a bell which means way too close. so I looked it up and it’s only 30 mins from me. and how it works in the area, the big mall and mall area that’s 15 mins from me is also 15 mins from them and will probably be their mall town and now I’m feeling… weird LOL. anyways, how’s your day going?

Oh man keep your eyes peeled....... sounds like you could run into them pretty easily. I can't imagine how weird it must feel to be that close to them, it felt weird to me when I learned Jill Rod was moving to Ohio and that's still a few hours away from me.

My day was super full but overall ok I think! Thanks for asking 🙂

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diaryofaninsanewriter · 5 years

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Dear Readers, from this blog post onwards, DiaryOfAnInsaneWriter begins a series that is called the Untold Stories Of Success. In this series, we will be covering inspirational stories of people who have made it big despite challenges. These amazing souls continue to inspire others through their work.

It is an honour to start this series with the story of Vibhuti Duggar Mutha, a transformational trainer and poetess. In 2016, her poem broke records and trended on social media and WhatsApp. She later created a soul-stirring poem for this blogzine and you can view it here: Sawaal hi Galat ho toh koi Jawab kaise dega?

On a rainy day in Mumbai, DiaryOfAnInsaneWriter got an opportunity for a heart to heart tête-à-tête with this AMAZING lady. Meeting her was one of the best experiences we have had. She is so warm, enthusiastic and resonating with positivity. Meeting Vibhuti Duggar Mutha taught me a lot about life and dreams. Through this UNTOLD STORY OF SUCCESS, DiaryOfAnInsaneWriter hopes that you too will be inspired by Vibhuti’s journey.

Vibhuti’s Untold Story Of Success

Without further ado, here is Vibhuti’s story: The girl who had no dreams!

She was someone who never interacted with anyone apart from her close group of friends.

Someone who never had the guts to look into a stranger’s eye

Someone who did not know what grooming is

Someone who could not speak in English fluently

Someone who would never protest for anything

Someone who had no idea about what she is good at.

That was VIBHUTI in 2003, the girl without dreams!

In October 2018, she chose to move from Dubai to Raipur in India so that she could use her training prowess to transform lives in this small town. It’s RARE to see such acts of selflessness in today’s times where everyone wants to work & earn big bucks in metros.

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Yesterday: The girl who had no dreams…

Today: She left her cushy life in Dubai & moved to Raipur to transform lives

Imagine a girl wearing salwar kameez, meek, no confidence, no opinion about anything in life. She would very quietly agree to norms of the society like – not talking to boys, not wearing western clothes, not aspiring for a career, not going out after 6.00 pm. This was who she was until the age of 21. She could see her life forward very clearly wearing a sari, married to a businessman, cooking, cleaning, producing kids and managing life with a lot of compromises. That was the old Vibhuti for you.

Today’s Vibhuti is the Founder of – Project Purpose, Dubai and an internationally acclaimed poet who writes at Poetry with Purpose by Vibhuti

As a trainer, she has decided to dedicate her life to guide, train & uplift entrepreneurs & others in Raipur and Chattisgarh.

How is it possible for a girl to have NO DREAMS?

(She shrugs her shoulders and smiles) I did not have to kill my dreams because I had none. I just thought I am not allowed to have any. Just because marriage was not happening, guys were rejecting me. I was asked to join an MBA course. I hated the idea the only thing led me to join the MBA program was the incentive that I would have 2 more years without marriage. That was the turning point of my life as if someone told me why are you inside the cage when the door is wide-open can’t you see?

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Yesterday: Comfortable communicating with a small group of people

Today: Touching many lives through her training sessions & soul-stirring poems

Where do you originally hail from?

(She continues speaking softly, her voice is very silky & her stance oozes confidence) As a new entrant in this world, I was placed in what I believed, was an almost unheard town of India named Raipur. Being presented with a conventional life, my reality was wrapped in narrow-mindedness and restrictive norms of my community. Much like other girls I was groomed to keep my mouth glued unless granted a permit to speak. Innately, speaking to anyone known or unknown would send a shock wave through my body.

How did you start writing poetry?

During those days poetry writing had been my hobby though it was a private affair and a way to release my concealed feelings. It liberated my soul.

What was the turning point of your life?

(She straightens up, runs her fingers through her hair casually and comes forward excitedly) One day, a friend of mine announced unexpectedly that I would recite poetry to my MBA fellow mates facing a class of 60 students. I can live that moment so vividly for I was overtaken by shock; fear, desperation, anger and excitement ran through my veins like an odd mixture. Being in the limelight was the last thing I would have asked for. My wish was to vanish physically, yet I took those 20 odd steps forward. To get up from where I was seated, to the front of my classroom, seemed like the longest distance I had ever covered. With all those curious eyes fixated on me, my body temperature rose and yet I felt frozen. Swaying among these extremes, I mustered the courage to raise my head up and recite the poetry first time ever in public.

How did you begin reciting poems professionally?

(She lets out the sweetest smile while her eyes begin to shine) From a casual environment where my writing was shared with known faces, I decided to recite the poetry of famous writers at my workshops. My colleagues were in awe of this way of starting a formal session and in fact, began adopting this method going forward. This continued for some time and I took on to sharing my videos on social media with few reactions and comments.

With my work-life getting busy this part of my expression was at a halt until business slowed down. In my free time, I began creating poems and it struck a chord with those were known and not known to me. From then on I always had opportunities and reasons to write. Either my followers would send a request to put a video or some subject would trigger my creativity to flow. Be it politics, social issues or self-reflection, I was overflowing with thoughts and ideas that would easily turn into poems.”

Your poem went viral 3 years ago, how was that experience?

(Vibhuti beams in excitement and continues smiling while she speaks) Well, like I said earlier, I was reciting poems to small groups of people, putting them on WhatsApp groups and social media for my friends, relatives & some followers. November 2016, one of my poems went viral not to a huge number but it reached around 400,000 views if you combine counts from all the pages it got published on.

It literally happened over a period of 3 days and it was overwhelming, I had no idea how did it happen. I received messages from 20 different cities in India, few from other parts of the world like USA, Canada, UK. These messages were filled with appreciation and blessings I realized something after this that I should just keep writing and reciting the poems which are written with emotions will always reach to people. It was like a chain reaction and I started writing more poems and created my own page.”

How are you different today?

From that meek girl of 2003 the one who had no dreams at all to this one who, in 2019, is all about dreams, it is indeed a journey yet to begin, it is a journey which has seen a lot already and yet not done for life.

What is Vibhuti all about in 2019?

(continues in a business-like tone while the smile continues adorning her pretty face) Today I am an MBA and Licensed Instructor in Mind Mapping. I am also an NLP Master Practitioner (ABNLP), TimeLine Therapy™ Practitioner & Hypnotherapy Practitioner (ABNLP). I recently shifted from Dubai in order to help transform lives in India. I have chosen to serve in smaller towns as that is where the help is needed the most. Almost everyone wants to cater to the metros, I, on the other hand, aspire to provide help where it is most needed.

It is a journey of contentment where I run a company, I am a poet with her own created audience, I am a faculty at a university, I am an artist who has painted everything around, I am a dancer who dances her heart out and known for it, I am a mother of two beautiful kids, I am the wife of a proud husband. I am so many things today that people know me for and I am proud to say that I did create my own path with my own mistakes.

What does poetry mean to you?

Its really amazing how poetry can make you smile, laugh, think, feel through words and expression. I knew now I am all about expressing with words filled with emotions and that’s all I do through my poetry.

Any message for our readers?

(smiles & continues looking at me straight in the eye) A cage is not a cage unless you begin to notice it until then it is your world. And what happens, when one day it dawns upon you, that, you are trapped? It becomes the beginning of umpteen stories, of human potential, of human desires, ambitions and courage.

We concluded the interview with a warm hug.

Penned by:

Mayura Amarkant

Do let us know if Vibhuti’s story impacted you. Leave a comment and let us know your views. In case you have an untold story to share, you can email us on [email protected].

A small town girl with no dreams is today transforming many lives through her training sessions and soul stirring poems. Read on to know about the #UntoldStoryOfSuccess of Vibhuti Duggar Mutha @Vibhutimutha11 Dear Readers, from this blog post onwards, DiaryOfAnInsaneWriter begins a series that is called the Untold Stories Of Success.

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