youareprobablywrong

[youareprobablywrong]

[youareprobablywrong]

Why bother arguing in support of trans people if you’re not trans?

very simple concept called believing in human rights

[youareprobablywrong]

@angrybell

I don't think the problems at hand or the solutions required for remedying this conflict are simple at all.

With respect to your allegation, that...

Fatah has promised to take those articles out of their national covenant since 1993. As of this year, more than 30 years later, they still have not repealed any of the articles.

Chapter 10 of Geoffrey R. Watson's book, The Oslo Accords: International Law and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreements (Published 2000), suggest that the PLO did Amend their charter. You can read the abstract here, but the chapter starts off by saying (emphasis added):

"The parties are now in agreement that the Palestinians have amended their National Charter to delete clauses offensive to Israel, including those calling for the destruction of Israel. Precisely when this was achieved is a matter of disagreement, however. The Palestinians have maintained that they did so as early as 1996, when the Palestine National Council adopted a resolution endorsing changes in the Charter, or even as early as 1993, when Chairman Arafat wrote to Prime Minister Rabin that the offending provisions were ‘no longer valid’. Israel maintains that the Palestinians did not formally amend the Charter, in accordance with their own constitutional requirements, until December 1998, when Palestinians gathered in Gaza and endorsed amendment of the Charter in the presence of US President Bill Clinton and other foreign dignitaries."

Additionally, a letter from then Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat to then Israeli Prime Minister on May 4th, 1996, reiterated that that articles inconsistent with Oslo were nullified. The relevant articles in contention being: 6-10, 15, 19-23, and 30 were nullified entirely, and articles 1-5, 11-14, 16-18, 25-27, and 29 were nullified in part. The 1968 Palestinian National Charter can be read here.

Having said that, the Palestinian National Council (PNC) met on April 24, 1996 and in a vote of 504-54-14 (yea-nay-abs) passed a resolution that, among other things declared that (Watson, 2000 [ref above]:

1-The Palestinian National Charter is hereby amended by cancelling the articles that are contrary to the letters exchanged by the P.L.O and the Government of Israel 9-10 September 1993; 2-Assigns its legal committee with the task of redrafting the Palestinian National Charter in order to present it to the first session of the Palestinian central council.

On December 14th, 1998, the PNC voted to revoke those sections calling for the destruction of Israel. Clinton and Netanyahu praised this vote. (See Pg. 11, Footnote 40-41; Wye River Memorandum: A Transition to Final Peace, 2000).

It is true that the PLO took ages to nullify the these articles, and by doing so were not in compliance with expectations, or timetables.

The Wye River Memorandum, which was signed on October 23, 1998, with respect to the PLO Charter under Article II, stated:

The Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Central Council will reaffirm the letter of 22 January 1998 from PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat to President Clinton concerning the nullification of the Palestinian National Charter provisions that are inconsistent with the letters exchanged between the PLO and the Government of Israel on 9-10 September 1993. PLO Chairman Arafat, the Speaker of the Palestine National Council, and the Speaker of the Palestinian Council will invite the members of the PNC, as well as the members of the Central Council, the Council, and the Palestinian Heads of Ministries to a meeting to be addressed by President Clinton to reaffirm their support for the peace process and the aforementioned decisions of the Executive Committee and the Central Council.

This obligation was completed. What happened next, however, was that the Israeli government refused to proceed any further.

The fact that a published revised text has not been produced does not mean that the PLO didn't adhere to this obligation. Moreover, the fact that members of the current Fatah government have decided to suggest that these articles, were not, nullified suggests that members of the current Fatah should be removed for failure to adhere to legally binding resolutions passed by their own government. Unless, of course, someone can find me documentation showing that there was a vote to rescind that resolution (as I cannot find any such evidence).

Your second paragraph is still, I think, fairly reductive. The first half of my post was pointing out why Israeli's have a legitimate fear for their life, and that actions on the part of Hamas perpetuate that sentiment. Despite having hurled so many explosives though, Israeli's have suffered staggeringly fewer losses. Whether that is due to elevated defense budgets isn't relevant in this, because my second point was that the death toll experienced by Palestinian's in Gaza perpetuate the sense that Israel does not think people in Gaza have a right to inhabit that land.

It's a tit-for-tat cycle of violence primarily perpetuated by right-wing Israeli's and Islamist-extremists, with civilians on both sides suffering the greatest losses.

With respect to your third paragraph, I don't think the analogy that you are using is useful to this, and I don't think demonstrates the alleged logical inconsistency of my point. Which, again, is that Israeli's don't feel safe (for legitimate reasons because of tens of thousands of rocket attacks) and that Palestinian's don't feel safe (because tens of thousands of their people have been killed).

Your last sentence though is particularly absurd. While it is evident that the PLO dragged their feet, Arafat was willing to participate in talks. There were strides that were made. But Arafat was contending with Hamas (who also wanted him dead), and Netanyahu was contending with growing sentiments that he was a failure for conceding on various demands with the PLO. Netanyahu then lost an election. While it's fair to say that Arafat rejected numerous offers, it is also true that the Likud's were likely never going to allow permanent concessions on settlements or Jerusalem.

Arafat was denouncing terrorism at least in 1985. And part of the requirements of Oslo and subsequent agreements was that the Palestinian Authority / PLO do more to prevent this from happening. But it turned out that Arafat either chose not to, or was unable to meet this need. Part of the issues that arose following the Wye Memorandum was the fact that Arafat wrote to Washington expressing that he could not meet this specific demand within the timeline demanded. And, in fact, all of that became pretty moot when Hamas "won" their "election."

Netanyahu also wanted Arafat to, in unequivocal terms, denounce any possibility of Palestinian statehood.

If you think for any second that this is entirely the driving force of Arafat then you are ignoring and entire half of the historical narrative that is not just relevant, but pivotal, in understanding why this conflict continues to rage on. @survivingcristero Well, given the fact that there is a great deal of history surrounding a place called "Palestine" that has geographical parameters, is recognized by 70% of current United Nations members, and holds the status of "non-member observer state," it seems absurd to say that "Palestine does not exist." Never mind the fact that Israel recognizes a placed called Palestine (even if Netanyahu doesn't want them to be called a "state") with the Palestinian Authority recognized as the sole and legitimate governing body over this place you say doesn't exist.

Equally unhelpful is the suggestion that they don't have a national identity, but that this identity (that you already alleged doesn't exist) is solely about hating Israel. While it is fair to say that hatred of Israel is part of that identity, there is much more to this identity. Palestinian's are facing what they perceive as an existential threat to their capacity to self-determination and self-definition while also stuck in the middle between hyper-religious anti-democratic terrorists (Hamas) and weak-somewhat-secular and pro-democratic leadership (PA).

More than being anti-Israel, they have, since 1964, been pro-revolution, feeling that the only path forward is a violent one. (Coincidentally, so did many people who fought for what eventually became Israel).

Perhaps if Israeli's saw the shared passion for resistance they might find a place to start looking for peaceful options. But this is going to require Israel to cease and desist from actions (such as settlements) that they could just stop. They don't need a peace treaty to do the right thing and show good faith. They could just end the occupation. They could do more to help the PA actually meet the demands they want.

If peace was a legitimate thing that the Likud's wanted with Palestine, they'd have it. But their version of peace requires desolation under occupation and a total disregard for Palestinian self-determination. The argument has been boiled down to "their self-determination is an afront to my existence," when that simply isn't the case.

None of this discounts the utter failures of the PLO/PA, and the absolute horrors brought on by Hezbollah and Hamas, by the way.

Here's the the thing. Israeli's have a point when they express the sentiment that Palestinian's simply do not believe that Jews have a right to exist. They do. Especially after the Second Intifada. If you don't know what event was, then you should brush up on your Israeli history.

Ultimately, more than 1,000 Israeli's were killed and around 3,350 Palestinian's were killed. Many Israeli's felt that the efforts to achieve consensus and peace with Palestinian's was fruitless. A naive endeavor brought to you by the Liberal Party. This period was also one in which terrorism - such as bombing busses - became pretty prevalent. This event lasted four years, and marked a shift towards the policies that are in place now that keep Palestinian's from being able to exercise a right of return.

But Palestinian's have a point when they point out that the occupation cannot last "forever." Indeed, it has no end in sight. While Israeli's (rightfully) point out that it is not safe because thousands of ordinances are hurled over the Gazan border every year, Palestinian's have a point that they, too, suffer from the violence of this occupation.

Not even looking at the settler violence, deaths, and injuries in the West Bank, the conflict just between Israel and the inhabitants of Gaza shows a stark difference in the propensity to kill or maim.

Any legitimate path forward is going to require huge concessions from both sides, lest one gets utterly wiped out by the other.

Utter destruction is not an answer though. That would be a war crime.

When we account for population differences (Israel has a population about 5x larger), we're talking about total casualties in the Gaza Strip being 86x higher than what Israel has felt since 2008. The reported casualties alone in 2023 indicate that Gazan's have seen 384:10,000 people killed whereas Israel has experienced 8:10,000.

Anyone who is refusing to understand the sheer human cost that this is having for both sides is not having a legitimate conversation.

#politics #israel #palestine #gaza #israel palestine conflict #war #idf #hamas #humanitarian crisis #yasser arafat #peace in the middle east

[youareprobablywrong]

Book Suggestion

Letters to My Palestinian Neighbor by Yossi Klein Halevi

This book is written from a very human perspective from an Israeli. He explains his perspective, and why it is so difficult for him, and others, to find a solution. It is written for Palestinian's. There is also a website where a free Arabic version can be downloaded, and Halevi encourages reader responses from Muslims and Arabs. There simply needs to be more engagement like this.

#politics #israel #palestine #gaza #israel palestine conflict #book suggestion #books #Yossi Klein Halevi #Letters to my Palestinian Neighbor

[youareprobablywrong]

Here's the the thing. Israeli's have a point when they express the sentiment that Palestinian's simply do not believe that Jews have a right to exist. They do. Especially after the Second Intifada. If you don't know what event was, then you should brush up on your Israeli history.

Ultimately, more than 1,000 Israeli's were killed and around 3,350 Palestinian's were killed. Many Israeli's felt that the efforts to achieve consensus and peace with Palestinian's was fruitless. A naive endeavor brought to you by the Liberal Party. This period was also one in which terrorism - such as bombing busses - became pretty prevalent. This event lasted four years, and marked a shift towards the policies that are in place now that keep Palestinian's from being able to exercise a right of return.

But Palestinian's have a point when they point out that the occupation cannot last "forever." Indeed, it has no end in sight. While Israeli's (rightfully) point out that it is not safe because thousands of ordinances are hurled over the Gazan border every year, Palestinian's have a point that they, too, suffer from the violence of this occupation.

Not even looking at the settler violence, deaths, and injuries in the West Bank, the conflict just between Israel and the inhabitants of Gaza shows a stark difference in the propensity to kill or maim.

Any legitimate path forward is going to require huge concessions from both sides, lest one gets utterly wiped out by the other.

Utter destruction is not an answer though. That would be a war crime.

When we account for population differences (Israel has a population about 5x larger), we're talking about total casualties in the Gaza Strip being 86x higher than what Israel has felt since 2008. The reported casualties alone in 2023 indicate that Gazan's have seen 384:10,000 people killed whereas Israel has experienced 8:10,000.

Anyone who is refusing to understand the sheer human cost that this is having for both sides is not having a legitimate conversation.

#politics #israel #palestine #gaza #hamas #israel palestine conflict #idf #war

[youareprobablywrong]

This is different from Al-Shifa:

There are images of decomposed bodies wearing what appear to be scrubs... with their hands tied. Meaning they were executed while bound. I will not be sharing them because I'm tired of showing our martyrs' bodies to people.

#palestine #gaza #israel #israel palestine conflict #news #watching

[youareprobablywrong]

Discussion Question

Can a military occupation be peaceful, or is it an inherently violent act?

If a military occupation is inherently violent:

What are acceptable responses?

What is an unacceptable response?

Are all acts against the occupation justified?

Under what circumstances can we refer to an occupation as "peaceful"? Especially if said occupation is inconsistent with international law?

#politics #debate question #debate #question #military occupation #occupation #international laws #international politics #geneva #geneva convention #Fourth Geneva Convention

[youareprobablywrong]

#politics #israel #gaza #palestine #hamas #israel palestine conflict #holocaust #history #historical accuracy #using emotionally laden words to make an emotionally laden case doesn’t make you a winner #it makes you a moron

[youareprobablywrong]

#free sudan #keep eyes on sudan #conflict #civil war #rapid support forces #armed forces #humanitarian crisis #refugees #aid #humanitarian assistance #sudan #death toll

[youareprobablywrong]

Anti-Zionism is not Anti-Semitism.

There may be situations in which these two sentiments overlap, but by and large, they are not the same. Zionism as an idea has evolved over time, and continues to change. While all manifestations of Zionism maintain the central tenet of returning to the ancestral homeland, how or by what reasons those are vary widely.

While a minority within the community, there is such a thing as anti-Zionist Jews.

My own estimation is that by conflating opposition to Zionism as meaning the same thing as hatred and discrimination towards Jews, it reduces any criticism of Zionist practices (i.e., how government and foreign affairs are managed) to only being rooted in hatred. This is a disservice.

#politics #israel #gaza #palestine #israel palestine conflict #zionism #anti zionism #pro zionism

[youareprobablywrong]

A unit of the Israel Defense Forces is facing US sanctions over its treatment of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, even as Congress voted for $26bn in new emergency aid to Israel. According to reports in the Israeli media, US state department officials have confirmed they are preparing to impose sanctions on the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda battalion, which has been accused of serious human rights violations against Palestinians. The highly significant move, which would be the first time the US government has targeted an IDF unit, prompted immediate anger among Israeli political leaders who vowed to oppose it. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Sunday that the US was also considering similar moves against other police and military units. In a statement, the IDF said it was unaware of any sanctions in force against any of its units and added: “If a decision is made on the matter, it will be reviewed.”

#palestine #west bank #IDF #israel

[youareprobablywrong]

This is going to be a long response, so buckle up.

I think it is worth pointing out that the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) is not just a think tank, but a registered lobby. Their purpose in life is to sway politicians towards certain legislative outcomes. John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt in their 2008 book The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy pointed out that FDD is a neoconservative think tank, that as part of this ideological slant they are extremely pro-Israel. (They argue in this book that a pillar of neoconservatism is being pro-Israel.) The relevance of the FDD in context of lobbying and other efforts by Israel to shape narratives internally and abroad can be seen further in this documentary piece.

Does a motive mean that the FDD is lying? No. But what it does mean is that they are going to attempt to shape a narrative.

I'm going to challenge that narrative now.

First, "incomplete data" is not the same as "fabricated data." What I said was (emphasis added):

What is true is that the quality of data being reported has decreased over time. This is in part driven by the near total collapse of the health system in Gaza. It is the health system (actual doctors and nurses) that is responsible for reporting deaths. Their method for reporting is consistent with other countries (like Israel, United States, EU, etc.) in which they have a name, and a personal identification number (Palestine's version of a social security number). This information is verifiable.

Their "expert analysis" are just quotes from people making assumptions. Case in pint, their senior research analyst (Joe Truzman) alleges that:

...there is also a deliberate effort to downplay the number of terrorists who have been killed by Israel in the war, potentially number more than 10,000.

They give one example to demonstrate a "record of false claims," and this example is nothing more than what happens in all armed conflicts, and in social media every time something bad happens. Their example does not prove or demonstrate that the Ministry of Health is fabricating data.

The FDD's Director of Research wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on April 4th lamenting the fact that President Biden of giving credibility to the MoH's numbers. In it he points out that casualty data is determined through two sources: medical facilities, and reliable media sources.

Given the deterioration of the healthcare infrastructure, especially in Northern Gaza, and given the fact that more than 100 journalists and media staff have been killed in the last six months, it makes sense that there would be deterioration in quality of data on reported deaths.

It may well be that the numbers reported by media staff are hyperinflated. It could be that as media reports, and the MoH verifies later, that the number whittles down. It could also be that the number is fairly accurate.

What the FDD and other neoconservative think tanks (who seem to be the only think tanks alleging intentional manufacturing of casualty reports, by the way) seem to ignore is that in the 2008, 2014, and 2021 conflicts, Israel and the United States verified the data that was reported by the MoH and came within 2 and 8%.

In other words, if the MoH is intentionally lying about the data, it would be the first time they have ever done so.

In November 2023, Jamaluddine et al., looked at excess mortality in Gaza between October 7 and 26 and found that there was, indeed, a substantial number of people killed.

In December 2023, Huynh et al., found no evidence of inflated mortality reported from the Gaza Ministry of Health.

The Washington Institute in late March (2024) also highlighted issues when relying on media reports of casualties. An article published in August 2023 in PNAS pointed out that media reports can often be wrong during times of armed conflict (in context of Ukraine and Russia).

Spagat (2024) from Action on Armed Violence has also highlighted concerns with the quality of data, but also acknowledge the overwhelming barriers to accurate reporting.

Spagat and Jamaluddine also lend credibility to the strength of the MoH's reporting, especially early on in the conflict.

So, while Gaza's Ministry of Health has a motive in highlighting disproportionate civilian casualties, Israel has in their best interest to conceal unpopular collateral damage.

I am not contesting the potential lack of reliability on reported casualty numbers (especially since February 1, 2024). What I am flatly rejecting is the accusation that the MoH is intentionally inflating numbers.

Now, to address Abraham Wyner's allegations.

This professor did not demonstrate anything other than how to use the least number of data points to justify a position that broader data does not support. If it were up to me, I would censure Wyner for intellectual dishonesty. He knows that most people reading The Lancet are not going to have a background in statistics or understand how to spot faulty inferences.

I'm not one of those readers.

First off, he had access to more than a single 15-day window long before his piece was published so I question why he didn't take the opportunity to have more robust results.

Here's a recreation of Wyner's chart showing cumulative deaths:

Because we're talking about total deaths over time, we will always see this, effectively, as a staircase.

So long as there are still casualties to be reported, that trendline will remain positive.

What Wyner does not show, but alludes to when he is talking about "variation" is daily reported deaths. That image looks entirely different.

Each one of those dots represents the number of people killed on respective days. The first chart though is summing (adding) each day to the rest.

Here's another example for December 21 to January 4:

And daily for the same time period:

What Wyner may have been expecting (for reasons he does not explain or pontificate on) is what the last two weeks look like (between April 4 and April 18), which is this:

And daily reported:

The thing is though, is that a 15-day window (for a sample size of 30) is going to be so small that the data could be due to chance.

(Indeed, statistical analysis shows p-values well above alpha level. Wyner's results have a 68% probability of being due to chance. Put another way, anyone redoing his analysis will get different outcomes 68 out of 100 attempts. Desired is 5 out of 100.)

When we look at the time period from October 7th to April 20th, we get this:

And daily reported deaths:

That trend line (dotted black line running through the dots) is showing that the number of people being reported each day is decreasing. But you will notice that the cumulative continues to go up (and will eventually flatten out if the conflict continues during a ceasefire but there are no casualties being reported).

When we look at average daily death counts, we see the trend still decreasing.

In my original post, I said:

The facts are that the average daily number of people killed and injured has decreased significantly over time. This is while also seeing a higher ratio of killed over injured which suggests that the IDF is using better intelligence and better ordinance to strike legitimate targets.

The first part was in reference to the above daily averages, the second part is in context of this chart:

Share variance is 52.8% between these two variables. That relationship is shown here:

Wyner does not explain why there should be a positive correlation between men and women. But a recent investigation and report on Israel's utilization of Artificial Intelligence ("Lavender") could explain why.

Excerpts below (emphasis added):

"Moreover, the Israeli army systematically attacked the targeted individuals while they were in their homes — usually at night while their whole families were present — rather than during the course of military activity. According to the sources, this was because, from what they regarded as an intelligence standpoint, it was easier to locate the individuals in their private houses. Additional automated systems, including one called “Where’s Daddy?” also revealed here for the first time, were used specifically to track the targeted individuals and carry out bombings when they had entered their family’s residences. The result, as the sources testified, is that thousands of Palestinians — most of them women and children or people who were not involved in the fighting — were wiped out by Israeli airstrikes, especially during the first weeks of the war, because of the AI program’s decisions. In an unprecedented move, according to two of the sources, the army also decided during the first weeks of the war that, for every junior Hamas operative that Lavender marked, it was permissible to kill up to 15 or 20 civilians; in the past, the military did not authorize any “collateral damage” during assassinations of low-ranking militants. The sources added that, in the event that the target was a senior Hamas official with the rank of battalion or brigade commander, the army on several occasions authorized the killing of more than 100 civilians in the assassination of a single commander. ....on several occasions, when a home was struck, usually at night, the individual target was sometimes not inside at all, because military officers did not verify the information in real time.

Wyner's entire assessment relies on a 15-day window during a time that, with near unanimity, the world considered MoH's data to be reliable. He doesn't prove anything, but makes wild claims in direct contravention of actual statistical methodology.

You can read an additional breakdown here (James Willis, Medium, Independent researcher), here (Lior Pacther, Wordpress, Computational Biologist, and anyone can download the data on Gaza and West Bank casualties.

Again, when we're looking at potential issues with data, we should see:

Absence of statistical outliers

Near uniformity in reporting

Increases/decreases that do not make sense given contexts

First and second order digit comparisons

We see statistical outliers, we see downward trends that coincide with Israeli operations and bombing tactics, we see increases and deceases that make contextual sense.

With respect to the last item on first and second order digit comparisons, this is a reference to the Benford-Newcomb law. This law suggests that there are a lot of datasets (from street names to insurance claims) that the leading digit should follow a ratio.

It suggests that 30.1% should be 1s, 17.6% should be 2s until we get to 9s which should be 4.6%. Below is a graph that shows expected Benford-Newcomb curve, compared to reported deaths, injuries, and total casualties:

I cannot speak on whether we should see such a curve in context of armed conflict. This curve is also susceptible to smaller orders of magnitude, and since we're only 200 days into the conflict it may be a while yet. That said, this trend fits fairly well into historic examples of said curvature with notable deviations.

Those deviations could be very easily explained by delays in reporting deaths, among other things.

For example, at least 50 people will be reported dead today that weren't before following a discovery of a mass grave after the IDF pulled out. Not only will this lead to a bump in the number of casualties reported on a single day (which is why I included daily averages to help smooth that out), but this may impact the ability for the MoH to verify identity. This ultimately reduces the quality of data. If a body has been mangled and decomposing for two months it will take a lot of time to verify that person, even though there is, indeed, a deceased person to report. This is just an example that highlights how poor quality data is not evidence of fabrication.

Ergo, there is no evidence to suggest that the MoH is intentionally trying to defraud the world. Evidence shows legitimate, rational, and expected reasons for the precipitous deterioration of data quality.

My goal here is to cut through the ideological grifts here and get straight to the objective nature of events, because when it comes to accusing the MoH of lying that seems to be the only force behind this narrative. To me, that is a red flag.

Is the Gaza Ministry of Health Lying about Casualty Data?

No. There is no evidence to suggest that this is the case. Arguably, the real time reporting on the ground would indicate that the data is likely very accurate, if not still underreported. The MoH (Ministry of Health) has been verified in previous conflicts has having been accurately reported. This verification has been done by independent parties, but most specifically Israel and the United States.

What would be some red flags for faked data?

Some noticeable trends would be:

Absence of statistical outliers

Near uniformity in reporting

Increases/decreases that do not make sense given contexts

First and second order digit comparisons

Why would MoH or anyone lie about casualty data?

Those who have attempted to cast doubt on Gaza's reporting have done so to delegitimize their entire system. They allege that Gaza's Ministry of Health has in their best interest (for the sake of propaganda and to sway the world) to fabricate through casualty reporting the severity of the destruction so as to paint Israel as the aggressor.

While the motive is surely true, the data at present does not support the idea that this is what the MoH is doing.

What is true is that the quality of data being reported has decreased over time. This is in part driven by the near total collapse of the health system in Gaza. It is the health system (actual doctors and nurses) that is responsible for reporting deaths. Their method for reporting is consistent with other countries (like Israel, United States, EU, etc.) in which they have a name, and a personal identification number (Palestine's version of a social security number). This information is verifiable.

There is also satellite imagery that validates the level of physical destruction. This objective means of assessing the spread of damage would, for reasonable people, give the impression that there would be significant numbers of dead and injured.

As of today, that number stands at more than 110,000 casualties (34,000+ dead and 76,900+ injured).

The facts are that the average daily number of people killed and injured has decreased significantly over time. This is while also seeing a higher ratio of killed over injured which suggests that the IDF is using better intelligence and better ordinance to strike legitimate targets. To be fair, two months of carpet bombing that occurred from the outset has left the IDF with no other choice as doing this also diminished Israel's capacity to perpetually monitor every single person within the Gaza Strip.

So, if you hear someone alleging that the Gaza Ministry of Health is fabricating their casualty numbers, kindly tell that person to fuck off. This is simply a rhetorical device that is meant to divest the people of Gaza of any legitimacy, indeed their humanity.

If, as the news has been reporting for several weeks now, Israel executes a ground assault into Rafah, we should expect to see casualty numbers increase with significant spikes, followed by precipitous decreases.

#politics #israel #gaza #palestine #hamas #gaza ministry of health #abraham wyner #the lancet #the tablet #war #casualty data #lies damned lies and statistics

[youareprobablywrong]

[youareprobablywrong]

Is the Gaza Ministry of Health Lying about Casualty Data?

No. There is no evidence to suggest that this is the case. Arguably, the real time reporting on the ground would indicate that the data is likely very accurate, if not still underreported. The MoH (Ministry of Health) has been verified in previous conflicts has having been accurately reported. This verification has been done by independent parties, but most specifically Israel and the United States.

What would be some red flags for faked data?

Some noticeable trends would be:

Absence of statistical outliers

Near uniformity in reporting

Increases/decreases that do not make sense given contexts

First and second order digit comparisons

Why would MoH or anyone lie about casualty data?

Those who have attempted to cast doubt on Gaza's reporting have done so to delegitimize their entire system. They allege that Gaza's Ministry of Health has in their best interest (for the sake of propaganda and to sway the world) to fabricate through casualty reporting the severity of the destruction so as to paint Israel as the aggressor.

While the motive is surely true, the data at present does not support the idea that this is what the MoH is doing.

What is true is that the quality of data being reported has decreased over time. This is in part driven by the near total collapse of the health system in Gaza. It is the health system (actual doctors and nurses) that is responsible for reporting deaths. Their method for reporting is consistent with other countries (like Israel, United States, EU, etc.) in which they have a name, and a personal identification number (Palestine's version of a social security number). This information is verifiable.

There is also satellite imagery that validates the level of physical destruction. This objective means of assessing the spread of damage would, for reasonable people, give the impression that there would be significant numbers of dead and injured.

As of today, that number stands at more than 110,000 casualties (34,000+ dead and 76,900+ injured).

The facts are that the average daily number of people killed and injured has decreased significantly over time. This is while also seeing a higher ratio of killed over injured which suggests that the IDF is using better intelligence and better ordinance to strike legitimate targets. To be fair, two months of carpet bombing that occurred from the outset has left the IDF with no other choice as doing this also diminished Israel's capacity to perpetually monitor every single person within the Gaza Strip.

So, if you hear someone alleging that the Gaza Ministry of Health is fabricating their casualty numbers, kindly tell that person to fuck off. This is simply a rhetorical device that is meant to divest the people of Gaza of any legitimacy, indeed their humanity.

If, as the news has been reporting for several weeks now, Israel executes a ground assault into Rafah, we should expect to see casualty numbers increase with significant spikes, followed by precipitous decreases.

#politics #israel #gaza #genocide #palestine #hamas #israel palestine conflict #gaza ministry of health #ministry of health #data #faking data

[youareprobablywrong]

Christopher Rufo thinks he’s an intellectual because he knows big words. This book is trash, and so is his “activism.”

my in-laws are visiting and for some reason started folding our clean laundry out of the dryer and my partner is getting a talking to bc of one of my palestine shirts LOL

i mean it tracks since FIL got partner this for xmas

#books

[youareprobablywrong]

[youareprobablywrong]

Raids in the West Bank are a periodic thing, just poorly documented. Yesterday an Israeli sniper killed a Palestinian who was filming an Israeli raid from his rooftop. The West Bank is far from being exempt from Israel’s terror. Countless people are still detained, healthcare workers included.