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notquiteaghost · 2 years

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congrats on making a public inquiry on a line of interest situated in the middle of a venn diagram of like four things i've been thinking about a lot lately, your prize is this ask that is so long that in the time spent writing it and checking info someone less annoying may have directed you to some of it! this is all like easy enough to google but just in case it feels less uuhh to have someone with an approximate knowledge on some things offer you some pointers: here are some pointers

(i AM ALSO a thousands of CD's type of guy, but i've not done any big digital management of them since the last time i was regularly using ipods in the 2000s, n i am kinda Prepping for big digital management around my current standing main hyperfixation (participants of a season of an old korean idol reality competition show, a collection of Too Many Gotdamn People who have made Too Much Gotdamn Music) but i don't actually currently own a lot of the physical media there, so none of this are pointer from like. oh here is a workflow i am using etc, but)

answers to your two questions are 1) file sizes really depend on lots of factors but rule of thumb is that in a collection of 'normal song' mp3 file size averages out to 5-7MB a song, and a 3-4min mp3 file being >10MB is surprising

and 2) re: storage prices, 1TB (~1,000,000MB, so probably ~166,666MB 3min mp3's) in external harddrive will run at about £50 in western digital brands atm (western digital is what i've been occasionally looking at for my data management thing bc i've seen it mentioned specifically as more reliable than seagate, which i have had issues with; anecdotally, my mum's WD elements has lasted her about a year longer than her seagates kick the bucket). prices atm on curry's stack up at £80 for 2TB, £108 for 4TB, £180 for 8TB

refurbished is an option when it's 'rectified' and sold by the company itself; for WD, those prices atm stack up at £30 for 1TB, £35 for 2TB, £55-60 for 4TB (their page for these are https://www.westerndigital.com/en-gb/products/recertified) (i do not know enough about this area and would wanna look up specific reviews on a company's rectifying track record before purchasing myself, so obv do the same)

answers to questions you DID NOT ask but may have later on if you do set out on the CD Digitization Project that i have answered preemptively bc i am ANNOYING:

tagging music with correct info is often the most time-consuming part of this shit, so a tagger is your friend. the musicbrainz database should have a lot of stuff covered, so their tagger picard might well do (https://picard.musicbrainz.org/, also has some good plugins for like formating multi-disc albums etc if you wanna scan through those), but tagscanner (https://www.xdlab.ru/en/index.htm) can also pull from discogs if needed, though you may still need a discogs account + to make an api key do use that

i was like. spike will probably appreciate it if i provided ways in which their dad could still be autistic about music in a digital format, but i'm having a hard time pulling up music players that meet my vision / make it clear if they do re: you can see cd booklet, and also this info seems to not typically be in databases. i'll carry on looking for players in this area bc i ALSO want this, but suggested desktop windows players other than windows media player / grooveshark / vlc (which are all fine, but imo none are the most intuitive for regular heavy listening) are my best friend foobar2000 (https://www.foobar2000.org/, also has a tagger that pulls from musicbrainz and maybe discogs?), musicbee (https://getmusicbee.com/, tagger plugins available), and aimp (https://www.aimp.ru/); deadbeef (https://deadbeef.sourceforge.io/) is created more to get your hands into with the technical stuff, but it's got custom metadata fields. really after you've looked to see if you think your dad would want a particular feature, unless space is a major consideration then it is just well what looks nicest.

file backup! backblaze (https://www.backblaze.com/) allows an external hard drive to be added in an image backup of a machine, which is the only good way to do a (pseudo-)sync backup without paying for cloud subscription or setting up a NAS etc; at $70/year it is obviously A Cost but way less than premium cloud drive subscription, so if it feels useful to know,

if the NAS mention / video at the end of that post wrt turning an old computer or laptop into a media server (so thing that is plugged into a wall that has files on it + a media player --> other computers / phones / etc on the same network (which can be outside the home too) can connect to that player and files) was interesting lmk bc i've also been looking into that a lot mostly as like, storage nerd aspirations, it's just a whole other thing that's irrelevant if you're more interested in just bunging stuff on an external drive (i've send this as an ask with the intent for you to keep it On File, so sent me another or a dm to lmk!)

you are not at ALL annoying you are a godsend!!!!

the thing abt my father is he is actually better at tech stuff than me (he ran his school's website & also michael's website, in the 00s, when that meant he built them from scratch) (he's still a little bitter abt his school outsourcing their website to whatever service every school uses nowadays. he used to add little falling snowflakes in the winter n april fools jokes n such), so yes i was very much anticipating saying to him like. find a backup storage method you like and i will do the legwork of actually ripping n sorting everything

i did NOT know taggers even existed but holy shit yes i will definitely need one. i do not anticipate him ever actually getting rid of his physical copies – smth he has already done is buy a ton of plastic wallets n move the CDs & booklets into them so instead of ur standard plastic jewel case taking up all that space it's effectively as thin as the actual CD – & also he no longer has a computer (i do not get this decision either. he just uses his phone????) so i doubt he'll need music player software. my thought is really 'he needs backups spare CDs and a CD writer so if any die they can be replaced'

however i will definitely look into the music player software, and maybe also forward this info to my brother (if it's even news to him, he's the kind of music autistic who has a £200 pair of headphones). thank you SO much <3

edit: just saw ur second ask n shdgdhd yeah i am gonna bookmark this post, my askbox is a pit things vanish into forever

#asks #fixion #long post #when i actually have disposable income again i am gonna buy myself a decent mp3 player #and then put on it the three dozen albums i listen to on repeat and also the murderbot audiobooks #and. well realistically continue to use spotify. but at least use less of my phone's battery on playing music

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benefits1986 · 1 year

Text

Gospel of El Dopa

This 2023, I must start monitoring my dopamine levels. LUH. Another content I didn’t search while I’m getting the hang on Simsimi sessions on steroids for work and life after work. LOL. One of the things that hit me is that my dopamine levels are off the roof and down the drain, instantly. When Huberman talked about how happy you feel when you take home a bacon only to find yourself down the dumps hours or days after, iba ako. Must be because I always feel I am never enough, I am motivated by my to-do list as an ate who helped raised my brother recovering from meningitis until now na sa long-term effects ng barbiturates na need niya i-take at 3 months old; looked after my mom who battled GBS; all the while, I squeezed in my life goals that are anchored on mother dragon’s wish list. Ganito ‘yung worldview ko kasi both these cases are walang lunas. Dead end. So, kahit ano pang gawain ko, walang reward. Yes, I can be with them up a certain time, pero limited or compromised time. So, default ko na managing the limited and compromised time. Hence, cling ako sa to-do list kong since 6 years old. LOL. ‘Di ako happy sa prizes and surprises. Feeling ko wala lang sila to be honest. ‘Di rin ako happy sa mga validation that much kasi all that matters to me is my mother dragon’s badge of approval. Kung baga, wala akong SELF GOALS. LOL. Laging palabas lahat ng ganaps ko. Kinalimutan ko ‘yung AKO. Funny how I handle “CONGRATS” or “GOOD JOB” kasi matic na sa akin na what could have I done better. Happy naman ako pero alam mo ‘yung mas BFF ko talaga is ADRENALINE. See? Happy naman. Hindi HAPPY. ‘Yung laspagan na walang hanggan na isasagad ko talaga. Akala ko testosterone x estrogen high lang siya. Akala ko gusto ko lang patunayan na tama ako kahit marami akong alangan na arguments. Basta, I want things done para move to the next task. Funny rin na ‘pag sinasabihan akong family-oriented, talagang natatawa ako. While ‘di ko nakikitang pang-abala ang mga pamilya ko, truth is, feeling ko lagi, wala namang ibang gagawa, kaya ako na lang lagi ang taya. Ganun lang siya kasimple for me. Kaya masungit ako at maldita. I want things MY way kasi andami na nilang given and complications na ‘di naman puwedeng mag-adjust. So, ako ang default na naga-adjust. FUCK. Hahahaha.

In fact, alipin pala ako ng adrenaline. HAHAHAHA. ‘Yung pake ko is my substitute for happiness. LOL. Wala akong amor sa reward. Cancelled lahat ng mga hirit at well-meant and half-meant pick up lines. I-add mo pa diyan ‘yung default SO WHAT ko sa mga pagkawala ng feelings ng mga XY at XX na ‘di naman karamihan pero tumatagos naman to be honest. Sorry sa inyong lahat. Ako rin talaga may problema. HAHAHAHAHA. Try kayo ulit this 2023. Shemay. Lagot. Fucked up talaga ako; but, maganda kasi this realization and ability to write it out allows me to face this vulnerability season. Hayup kang Taurus szn ka. Hayup ka talaga. Ma, sorry na. Eto na. Ayusin ko na buhay ko. Try ko best ko. Maiba naman. Huberman said na L-Dopa is the common denominator of dopamine and adrenaline. Actually, when I listened to his gospel, it hit me. Cancelled pala dopamine sa system ko. HAHAHAHA. Wala akong pake sa dopamine. I would choose unli adrenaline kasi I don’t find meaning in happiness. WHOA. Curveball na naman tayo. Red flag na naman po. But, let this scarlet sin bleed brightly.

Existentialism pala ang naging fortress ko sa pagde-defend sa shitballs ko with adrenaline versus dopamine. Kaya pala, kahit uminom ako hanggang umaga tapos pumasok ako ng 8:30 AM in time for a big meeting, in one piece pa rin ako. ‘Yung akala ng kausap ko sa inuman e empath lang ako, pero ayoko lang kasi nasasayang ‘yung downtime. Kung baga, oks naman chismis and random stuff, pero gusto ko na kahit downtime, may sense; else, maaga akong uuwi o gagawa ako ng excuse para matapos na tapos tutuloy ko na lang inom ko on my own or with others. Natatawid naman pero may burnout na malala talaga. Spiral levels na parang unlikely na ako. Kaya pala, kahit mag-yosi at vape ako at mag-mega dose ng ... during long weekends, wala pa ring epekto. Adrenaline pala ‘yun cannibalizing dopamine. LOL. Kaya pala para wala akong satisfaction, wala akong pake sa validation, walang masyadong galawan yung RBF ko. LOL. Huy. Huberman, sana makapag-meet up tayo IRL para naman mapasalamatan kita sa 4-hour sessions mong matinde kahit may sponsors ka parati. No pun naman doon kasi ‘di biro mag-ubos ng oras para sa free and super deep na deep, dive na dive digestible content na counter current ng mga kabobohang content na kalat na kalat din sa mundo both sa analog and digital world. Kaya pala sobrang love na love na love ko rin ang paliligo ng malamig na malamig na tubig sa Baguio since first punta ko doon nung second birthday ko according to my mom. Sobrang weird ko raw sabi ni mommy kasi ako lang daw sa group namin na puro adults ang tuwang-tuwa maligo ng walang heater. ‘Di raw niya ako ma-gets pero sige lang, kasi maldita nga ako. Siguro, addicted na ako noon pa man sa adrenaline. LOL. Char. Ansarap kasi ng para kang napa-paralyze for a time ‘yung cold water pero ang refreshing niya. As in. Ibang level. Gusto ko rin ng hot spring kahit tanghaling tapat. Pero, kung papapiliin ako, cold spring na tumatagos sa buto ‘yung lamig talaga. :D Tapos pinaka favorite kong combo is hot spring and cold spring sa Los Banos pero sarado na siya ngayon. Lipat-lipat ako ng walang bukas way back 8 or 9 years old. Kaya pala sobrang ligalig ko noong araw na ‘yun at ayoko pang umuwi. Pagod na mga kasama ko since family day sa office ni dad ‘yun.

Actually, nabubog tatay ko sa hot spring-cold spring resort na ‘yun in front of me. Wala lang. ‘Di lang niya napansin na may nabasag sa kabilang cabana. Tapos nakita ko so much blood sa foot niya. Tanong ko kung okay ba siya. Sabi niya oo, then alis na ako. Swim pa ako. Bye. Ganern. So, chocolate, sex, alcohol, smoke/vape, substance, exercise --pick your poison szn na lang tayo. Pag-isipan ko muna anong heirarchy. But first, dapat ayusin ko muna utak at kaibuturan ko. Issue na naman ito ng trusted trust issues ko kahit safe space. Issue na naman ito ng cancelling the power (ugh) of vulnerability. Caffeine and dopamine receptors. Syempre, kape is a painfully obvious choice BUT, so totoo lang, kaya ako tea (not milktea) person noon, 2x ang caffeine ng maayos na quality ng tea bag compared to typical coffee. Ako? Kaya ko 2 bags or heaping teaspoons ng tea leaves lalo ‘pag galing mismo sa Taiwan sa isang upuan. Tapos 2x or 3x a day pa ‘yan; but tea, coffee, wine, beer, rum intake makes me poop like crazy. Kaya hinay lang tayo. Diuretic on steroids ko lahat ‘yang mga ‘yan. LOLOLOLLOLLOLL. Mag-tea mix na ba ako ng tea? CHZ ulit. ‘Wag muna nating puntahan ‘yan universe na ‘yan. Ayusin ko muna ‘yung wiring ng utak ko. ‘Yung end goal na ‘yan... ‘yung hard work na ‘yan... ‘di ko siya associated sa reward. :D Sa mother dragon ko, kahit maganda, panget pa rin. LOL. Tawang-tawa nga tatay ko dahil maligalig nga raw ako. Bakit daw ako nakikinig sa dopamine podcasts. LOLOLOLLOLL. Pero, I think, panahon na para mag-saya. AKO NAMAN. AKO NA NGAYON, FINALLY. Kung baga, focus ako sa bucket list ko para ‘di na naman ako maligaw. LOL. PS: Thank you, ina for your dopamine cocktail. If it weren’t for that, I won’t be able come across this universe. Hugs to heaven! Happy weekend to you and mom this Mother’s Day. Dami talagang ganaps ng May. FUCK. Lol. PS2: This Sabado’s init ng ulo is tatay ko na nagpapabili ng Brompton bike shirt. FUCK. Pinagalitan ko na naman kasi UGH. Hahaha. Para raw terno. Kainis. Wala namang naka-B shirt while riding a B na matinong utak ‘di ba? Pero malamang, magpapahanap na naman ito sa Lazada. PS3: Ayokong umalis ng bahay today but special request bilang an expat friend is in Manila. UGH. Gusto ko lang mag-chill at mag-grocery, magluto, mag-ayos ng fridge, maglaba. Humilata kasi ngayon lang ako nakakabawi ng tulog. Pero, sige. Go tayo sa city lights capital of PH. Uwi na lang ako maaga bukas. Lels.

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cillianmurphy · 4 years

Photo

GIFFING 101 - YOUR ULTIMATE GUIDE ON HOW TO GIF

I have gotten many, many asks before about how I gif and I finally decided to make a tutorial. This is going to be very long, very image heavy and with a lot of details and examples. I mean it, I’m going through every, single aspect of giffing that I can possibly think of. From start to finish. And please read the disclaimer at the very start.

* I use a macbook pro but this should probably work on windows too!

I hate doing this but if this helped and you want to, please consider donating to my ko-fi or if you want, commission a theme or page from me at @amaanat <3

tutorial under cut, I hope it helps!

★★★★★

- CONTENTS

disclaimer

what will you need to create gifs?

how to download videos?

extracting your scene from handbrake using VLC / built in video player

opening in photoshop

trimming, cropping and resizing videos

sharpening

colouring and psds

masks

adding subtitles

editing frames / timeline speed

multiple gifs in one grid.

actions

exporting the gif

last minute tips and extra links.

★★★★★

- DISCLAIMER

First off, this is not meant as a post where I am saying look here, this is the only and perfect way of giffing. Not at all. When I started out, there were many tutorials available that helped me figure out how to gif, and I slowly developed my own style and I would like to create an in depth tutorial that helps you grasp the basics. Heck, make your gifs whatever way you want, go absolutely crazy on colours or whatever, this tutorial is just here to guide you through the process of gifmaking, because I know it can be very intimidating to people who are just getting into it. That is why I made this and why I spent 8 hours writing this, because I want others to know too and this is the kind of in depth tutorial I needed when I was starting out 4 years ago. Thanks for reading, hope it helps and go crazy ahhh go stupid.

★★★★★

- what will you need to create gifs?

photoshop. I use photoshop CC 2020 on a mac and I pay monthly bc of student discount. There are many, many links you can find on @completeresources for downloads. You can use any photoshop you like, as long as you have the timeline option.

Handbrake. This nifty program is used mostly to convert MKV files to MP4, but I also use it to quickly extract the part of the video I want, because opening an entire movie in photoshop can quickly clog up space bc of cache and it’s a pain to find that one second scene you want with that tiny scrollbar. Download it from here.

your video (downloading explained down below)

extras: VLC, just to find how many seconds the scene is at, so we can input the time in Handbrake. You can use any other player though for that step, I use VLC or Quicktime. Download VLC from here.

★★★★★

- how to download videos

Ok so I will quickly go through a few methods here for getting your clips.

1. t*rrenting.

This is the most popular method for getting your film or tv episode. I personally get my t/rrents from rarbg dot to or if I am having trouble finding one, I go to 1337x dot to, because they compile them from different sites. I copy the magnet link and go to the qbittorrent application, import magnet link, choose the files I want and it downloads. Remember, the higher the seeder leecher ratio, the quicker it will download.

But which file should I choose?? there’s so many? Well yes there are many many files for different movies. On RAR, I found more than 40 t/rrent files for Endgame. I think that generally, the 4/5 GB 1080p copies are just fine. I have compared giffing with a 60GB Interstellar Remux (which is directly ripped from bluray) file to giffing from a 4GB 1080 file, it literally gave me the same quality and the 1080 looked crisper. So yeah don’t kill your computers space, just go for those 3/4/5GB files.

hot tip - don’t download from yify, the quality is way worse.

2. movies from twitter accounts such as logolessHD.

these accounts post MEGA links to movies and shows, but you will have to request to follow them to be able to get the links. Then you can download the movie from there. The accounts you can get these links from are here: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4. The quality can be a bit less though compared to t/rrents. Here is a link to a tumblr blog with these kinds of downloads too.

3. downloading from youtube.

ok, use 4kvideodownloader for this. It is incredibly easy to use, you just need the youtube link. Always Always go for 1080p, if you can’t then 720 at the most because otherwise quality gets really bad really fast.

4. netflix / screenrecording

If you don’t want to download / can’t find something, try using netflix and screen recording. In my experience, SC only works on google chrome and not safari so jsyk!! Here is a tutorial on how to screen record on mac (or for quick access, click command+shift+5) and windows.

NOTE: quicktime screen records at 60fps, which is nearly thrice the frame rate of movies and shows, so at the end you may end up with duplicate frames in the timeline of photoshop, so you will have to delete those frames one by one sorry.

★★★★★

- extracting your scene from handbrake using VLC / built in video player

muahaha here’s where the magic starts to happen. Open handbrake and import your video. For this part I am going to use a scene of Keanu Reeves from the 2019 movie Always be my Maybe. I will demonstrate with that scene up until colouring, because then I will show how I colour different scenes!

So when you have opened the image in HB, you get this layout. (link to imgur)

it is a bit intimidating, I know. So basically, first, click on where it says chapters near the top right and click seconds. then, input the time you want to extract from the entire video. For the Keanu scene, that scene starts at 00:57:18 and ends at 00:57:21. These are not exact timings, I usually add an extra second so the entire scene is captured and I heavily recommend you do the same.

Now down below, you can click browse and edit where your new video will be saved and you can also change the name of the new clip. Always ALWAYS remember to keep the .mp4 ending do not cut that part out!!! If the ending says .m4v change it to mp4!!

Ok then I undertake the following steps to ensure the video that will be exported is of the highest quality possible:

Firstly, I uncheck all these three boxes:

Then you see this bar here right? Well I will edit the dimensions, filters and video now. You don’t have to do anything for audio, subtitles or chapters so leaving that alone is best. Lets go to dimensions first.

Here are my settings for dimensions:

The storage size depends on if your file is 1080p or 720p. Most movies are shot in a ratio of 2.35:1, so if it does not say 1920x1080 like a 1080 file should be, don’t fret. The cut off parts are just the black bars you see when watching the movie. Handbrake doesn’t recognise nor convert them so that’s one less thing we have to worry about.

Now onto filters. Literally do NOT change anything there. Leave the settings as they are, which is like this:

Finally, go to video. You will see this kind of window and these are my settings (imgur)

Firstly, leave video encoder at H264 or 265 depending on how your video is encoded. For the FPS, choose same as source for the framerate and click constant instead of variable!!! This will ensure your video is smooth. For quality, bring the slider all the way to the right. RF0 means it will be at the best quality possible. I didn’t edit the settings at the bottom at all so just leave them be.

Now click this green icon (imgur) at the top and your video will start encoding! It does not take long at all and then your video is ready to made into a nice lil gif!

★★★★★

- opening in photoshop

woohooo we got our video!! Ok now open photoshop. Click on file -> open:

now search for the file you extracted from VLC and import it! Now your screen will look like this (imgur). With a different video, of course lol.

★★★★★

- trimming, cropping and resizing videos

ok so firstly, we will trim the video. As you can see in the image I linked in the step before, the screencap you see is of someone else in ABMM, not Keanu, like I want. So use this slider:

and click and drag it to where your scene begins and shows up in the window. Then, click the following button to split at playhead.

This will split the clip and so the timeline and layers section will look like this (imgur) (mine has three sections because there was space before and after the keanu scene so I cut two parts which made three clips)

so now all there is left in trimming is delete the layers of the video you do not need! For me in that image it was layer 1 and 3!

cropping and resizing

This depends on the kind of gifset you want to make. This picture is a handy guide for resizing:

This post is also very very useful for resizing info

Ok now I will crop my gif. Click on this tool:

and now my interface looks like this. I am using the ratio 6 by 4 but you can use whatever you want.

Ok now you may need to crop some black bars but since I don’t have to, I just moved the crop area around a bit and clicked enter to crop it. Just play around with sizes and whatnot, and get a feel of what you like!!

cropping tip: crop as close as you can to the edges. The more you zoom in, the more pixels that will be visible and it will make your gif extremely grainy!!

So now for resizing, go to image -> image size or click command-shift-i

and you will get this window.

A LITTLE NOTE - I personally do not use automatic but a friend who shared her sharpening psd would prefer if I kept it secret, but automatic is what most people use and it is what I used up until november 2019 and it worked just fine.

Ok anyway now I want to make my gif 268px wide so I will input that as width and make sure you click this!! It makes sure your height and width are proportional!

ok now we have this. After you’ve done that, click ok!

congrats, you just resized a gif!! Your gif probably looks smaller now in the main window once you click ok, just zoom in to it! don’t worry about it looking bad quality, sharpening is next!

This is how my gif looks with trimming, cropping and resizing (with 0.05 speed)

★★★★★

- sharpening

Now we sharpen! Make sure your layer is selected Go to filter -> sharpen -> smart sharpen and this window will pop up:

These are my settings which most people use. Just remove gaussian blur

I have more accurate and use legacy checked too!

click ok! Now ... your gif might look a bit oversharpened. That’s why we use a bit of gaussian blur. Go to filter -> blur -> gaussian blur.

now I think most people also use a 1.0 radius so set that and click ok.

But now your gif looks too blurry. Lets fix that. Double click the icon below in the layers panel

and adjust the opacity! My go to is between 25 to 35, just so the gif looks smooth!

Now we’re done with sharpening! This is how our gif looks with sharpening with 0.05 speed:

sweet right? Now .... the best and hardest part ... colouring!!!!

★★★★★

- colouring and psds

First I will shortly talk about psds. They are photoshop files, that save the entire document which means you can share it with someone after uploading it and when they download and open it, they can edit the layers, tweak things just like they made the file in the first place. Many people upload psds of gifs with colouring so others can use that colouring. You can find so many psds on completeresources (I only linked gif psds but they have psds for icons and headers too) or allresources. I do not use psds but colour from scratch every time so I will not be explaining them further, sorry.

So for colouring, I will go very in depth into different styles. Here are the main types of colouring I have noticed people use on here:

simple - I normally use this for scenes with people in it

vibrant, bright - I use this for scenes with lots of colours in them

pale

black and white

gradients - I use this to spice scenes up a bit

colour palette

I only go for simple, vibrant and gradients and never do cp, pale or black and white, but I will link a few tutorials by talented creators who do and after that I will explain the three ways I colour by showing you three different examples :)

Some useful tutorials I have found for pale/bw/cp colouring are:

this pale tutorial by @samecoin. Especially useful read because Tippy explains how to avoid whitewashing in pale edits.

this pale tutorial by @kateausten. Very easy to read and to follow.

this colour palette tutorial by @freddyfreemen. They explain the basics and provide a psd too.

this colour palette tutorial by @stenbranlons. Very image heavy which guides you through every step of the way.

A blog dedicated to pale resources is @finesources and is definitely worth checking out!

this tutorials page by completeresources has many many tutorials on how to do different kinds of styles

Btw, this is a useful website that explains all the different adjustment layers in photoshop if you’re still getting the hang of them

ok now onto my examples for the colouring. I will first do simple colouring for which I will use the keanu gif. For vibrant and gradient I will use two different gifs. I usually put my colouring into a group so first, close the video group layer and click this to make a new group which will contain the adjustment layers for our colouring:

SIMPLE COLOURING

First I will brighten the gif up with some curves. That is this tool:

Then you get this window:

As you see, I have selected that white eyedropper tool. Using that I will brighten the image. Basically, you want to click on the whitest part of the gif using that tool. This is because wherever you click, the eyedropper will turn that part into white and adjust the entire gif that way so if you click somewhere dark, you’ll get this white bright fuzzy mess. So I clicked on the lightest place which imo is the white specks near the glass in front of his hand and now my gif looks like this:

Ok now if you look at the above image, there is a black eyedropper two steps above the white one. You want to use that to click on the darkest place of the gif bc it’ll turn that to pure black. Here is my gif when I did that:

not a massive difference but it balances things out. Now I will add some saturation. Click this icon:

which brings up this window. I have already set saturation to around 15 to make it a bit warmer:

and the gif looks like this now:

I think it looks nice, but I would like to add something extra. That is why I am going to play around with selective colour to make the background pop a bit and make the black colour more dark. So click this icon:

and you get this window and these colours (imgur). You can play around a lot with selective colour and manipulate colours! So if I turned the black dial on reds to +100, they would become wayyyy darker. However because I want the background to pop, I would use the colours magenta and blue (and black for the final touch). For those my settings are this: 1 - 2 - 3 (imgur). So now my gif looks like this:

And now i think we are done! For comparison, this is what the gif looked like with absolutely no colouring or sharpening:

And that was all for simple colouring!! Lets move on to vibrant colours!!

VIBRANT COLOURING

For this I will use an example from Thor: Ragnarok bc thor is my soft bb. I did not do much for this first example except play around a lot with selective colour and I used the exact way of adding saturation and curves as shown before. Honestly just playing around with selective is the best bet to get vibrant colouring. The gif without sharpening etc was this:

the gif after colouring and sharpening is this:

pretty sweet huh? Just play a lot with saturation, hue and selective colour and channel mixer and you can create a lot of styles that way!

GRADIENT

for this I will use another clip from Thor, but from The Dark World. It is a bare clip where it is raining and I will add a gradient on it. This is the gif without colouring nor sharpening:

now we will do the sharpening and colouring. I already applied a basic curves and saturation layer so now it looks like this:

It looks a bit better right? Ok lets get that gradient applied. Click here:

and click on gradient, NOT gradient maps bc those are different things and I honestly dont know how maps work.

now this is what will appear, I haven’t changed anything to this yet:

What style, colours, angle you choose is up to you. I personally am going for 0 angle because I want it going right. Now, to choose colours, double click on the colour shown next to the word gradient. This window will show up:

The fun part is you can do what you want here. Just experiment, click the buttons, adjust opacity etc. When you click at the bottom of the bar somewhere another stop marker appears meaning you can have even more colours! Just click on the bottom markers and edit to your hearts content! Use the top button to adjust opacities. Personally I went for this gradient:

Ok but now we have a problem because our gradient is fully covering the image and you can’t see anything. That is where blending modes come in. Right click on the gradient layer and click blending options. This window will pop up (ingur). When you click blending mode, these options appear (imgur).

Here is a good guide explaining the blending modes

I just recommend playing around seeing which one suits you. I went for overlay, which makes my final gif look like this:

and that was that on colouring!! Let me know if u have questions about it! Onto the next part, masks!

★★★★★

- masks

I will not go in depth here, but instead I will link some tutorials but the amazing @thepunisher who has explained it much better than I ever will be able to. The tutorials are all in this link. If you have any questions do lmk but idk how I could explain it.

★★★★★

- adding subtitles

although we wish we could, we can’t all lip read so we need subtitles also I’m hard of hearing and need them anyway but yeah, I will quickly highlight how I add subs! I use the font Arial Rounded MT Bold Regular.

I will first link to this post because it helped me a lot and may explain stuff better than I do.

Lets take the keanu gif we had earlier. In it, he says ‘fish flakes’. Now what I do is this. Click on this icon:

and drag a box around the gif fully. Add your text. Mine looks like this now:

Well that ... does not look like a subtitle. BTW my settings are:

*when there are two people speaking I change the colour of the second person to #ffff00 - also for 540px gifs I usually use 12/13px text.

Ok now I will add the stroke and drop shadow. Right click on the layer of text, click blending options and change your stroke and drop shadow settings to this and this (imgur). Now just click the move tool or hit V on keyboard to select it and drag the gif down wherever you want. Now my final gif looks like this:

Ok, now if you have two gifs and you want them to be the same distance from the bottom, right click the text layer of the first gif document, click duplicate layer and you will get this window:

now click on destination and depending on what files you have open in PS, you will get this window:

now just choose where you want the text to go and if the gifs are the same sizes itll appear exactly where it did in the first one and you can edit the text for the second. You can do this with adjustment layers, groups etc too!!

Now text is done! Off to the next part!

★★★★★

- editing frames / timeline speed

We are done editing, now time to convert to frame animation and edit the speed!

Ok click on the four bars on the right side of the video timeline. It will bring up a menu. From there, select this:

This will make individual layers of every frame into clips. Now, click this at the bottom left side of the video timeline:

This will convert your video timeline to a frame animation timeline. Now it looks like this (imgur). you’re probably wondering wait where the heck did my layers go well don’t fret, lets click the four bars on the right side again and click this:

now look! We have got all our frames into the timeline! Just delete the excessive frames at the front. Now click the four bars again, select all frames and then click the number at the bottom and change it to 0.05 or 0.06 or whatever speed you want:

Now we are done with this step!

★★★★★

- multiple gifs in one grid

I myself am not going to explain this, instead here are links to a few amazing tutorials that will help you further

this tut by @brolinjosh

this tut by @futurist

★★★★★

- actions

Now actions ... man they make everything so much easier. Basically actions are a sequence of steps you undertake in photoshop that are recorded which you can then save and use on multiple files. This makes the giffing process much much faster!!! For instance, these are the actions I have saved (mind the doubles lol I am experimenting a bit!)

As you can see, I have one for undertaking the entire video timeline to frame animation process and one for sharpening and the subtitles. It has saved me around 75% of the original time I put into creating sets before which is a lifesaver.

I cannot explain how to make actions bc I am really bad at explaining stuff, but here are some tutorials:

- https://helpx.adobe.com/photoshop/using/creating-actions.html

- https://completeresources.tumblr.com/post/66560261468/how-make-action-%D0%B7

- https://completeresources.tumblr.com/post/50583786863/how-to-use-an-action

- https://completeresources.tumblr.com/post/50362731526/how-to-use-actions-on-gifs

https://www.creativebloq.com/adobe/create-own-photoshop-actions-61411918

★★★★★

- exporting the gif

now we’re at the final stage! When you have your gif ready, go to file -> export -> save for web legacy

ok now the next window is this which looks intimidating I know

Well basically, those are my settings above. Make sure the looping option is set at forever. Also on the left size you see how big your gif is, make sure it is under 8mb but tumblr is unstable so keep it under 5MB and it should be fine.

I use different exporting types at times. Sometimes I use selective and pattern, sometimes diffusion or adaptive+dif. Just remember that the gif size depends on which you choose so keep that in mind. Here’s the difference (if u can even spot it).

selective + pattern

selective + diffusion

adaptive + diffusion

Personally I mostly only use selective + pattern!

btw make sure your matte is at NONE!!! This is because otherwise you have those whitish transparent borders on your gif, esp noticable on dark gifs, like shown in this tutorial by the talented @joewright !

And congrats, you have officially made a gif! Now go experiment, have the time of your life and do whatever the heck u want with your gifs. And if you want me to see them, tag me!! I track #usernums !!!

★★★★★

- last minute tips and extra links

man idk what to say here really but here goes:

@completeresources and @allresources are amazing places to learn more about gifmaking, pls take advantage of the opportunity

reminder: quicktime records at 60FPS, so unless you want a laggy gif delete the extra duplicate frames in the frame animation timeline!!

When opening import video frames to layers, do not click skip every second frame!! do not!!!!

Do not steal gifs. Try making them. I know it takes time and it can get frustrating but don’t post someone elses gifs as your own. Even the ugliest gifset in existence made originally by someone is better than a stunning set put together full of stolen gifs from various users. Don’t be that person

Don’t be afraid to ask for help pls just go on anon if u want!!

use the tumblr dimensions!!! I cannot stress enough how important this is because if you don’t, your gifs will look stretched af and lose quality so like .. don’t do that

#completeresources #itsphotoshop #tutorial #resources #gif tutorial #allresources #my tutorials

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saastrac · 4 years

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Dreamhost Review | Trusted Web Hosting Service Provider| Discount Code Inside

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Originally Published On: SaasTrac

About The Author SaasTrac is one of the trusted places where users can find reviews on different Saas Products, Software, and Platforms. Our major goal is to let users know the detailed and the most helpful information possible about every product — the good, the bad, and the ugly in the SaaS space.

#Dreamhost Review #Dreamhost #Web Hosting Service #best Web Hosting Service #Trusted Web Hosting Service #Dreamhost discount code #best domain registrar #Dreamhost Promo Code #Trusted Web Hosting Service Provider

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my-world-travel · 4 years

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Backpack Contents

This is as pertains to my travels from September through end of November

Bags: A 40L backpack with a backframe and hip belt, and a 15L backpack with a drawstring top that folded over.

I started out using all of both; by the end I could comfortably fit everything in the 40L. What changed? Well, I set out with enough protein bars to have 1 a day, because that took care of (otherwise expensive) hostel breakfasts. And as I ate those, space increased.

Clothing: 8 t-shirts, 3 pants (1 cargo, 1 zip off, 1 both), 8 pairs of underwear, 8 pairs of socks, 3 bras, a t shirt and a pair of shorts for sleeping in, a fleece, a rain jacket, and a button down for the rare occasion where a t-shirt wasn’t going to cut it.

Most of this was based on doing laundry once a week--I could do a load and be wearing clean clothes at the same time, then I could rotate pants/bra as necessary. If you do laundry more often you can pare this down further. I wouldn’t recommend doing it less often.

You could also cut down to 2 bras & 2 pants, eliminate separate sleepwear with comfortable pants (or none), and leave the button down behind. I chose 3 pants for the variety (sometimes I was hot, sometimes I needed many pockets, often both) and 3 bras because while two were good for the everyday (and so facilitated the ‘wear a clean one while doing laundry’ approach) the third was more loosely fitting and good for evenings in or long plane flights.

Weather issues:

Overnight bag: 8 pairs of contact lenses, contact lens solution, glasses, retainer, 2 toothbrushes, toothpaste, floss, comb, hair gel, 30g each of shampoo & conditioner, pack of painkillers, antibiotic cream, handful of pads, 3 months of sertraline.

If your body worked correctly fresh out of the box, congrats! Mine has needed some help.

After the first 2 weeks I added anti-itch cream for bug bites, and after a month I got an antihistamine/decongestant for the flu. I highly recommend both of these.

I have an IUD so pads were just for occasional spotting. How to handle it if you need more is up to you.

Electronics: 11″ ThinkPad, Kindle, iPhone, iPod, point-and-shoot camera, LARGE portable battery, cables for each of these, and appropriate wall adapters

Most of Europe uses plugs with two horizontal round prongs, with or without a grounding prong. The UK and Ireland use a 3 prong version with 2 horizontal prongs and a third vertical one between them. If you’re going to both areas you’ll need both adapters. These are far less expensive at a discount electronics store or (occasionally) drug stores than to get at the airport when you’re thinking about it.

Laptop was for writing and backing up photos. For peace of mind it was essential. I recommend something small--if you have the budget for an iPad or Surface, go for it, weight means a lot. You don’t need anything fancy. I like the ThinkPad because it has a touch screen which meant (due to my difficulty with touchpads) I didn’t need to pack a mouse. To each their own.

Kindle was for reading! Significantly lighter and/or cheaper than bringing hard copy books. It broke at the start of November (consequences of taking a 10 year old piece of electronics along) and I had to emergency order a new one--which did my budget no favors.

Camera: I took 6000 photos. I used a 32 GB card and would’ve likely filled it if I hadn’t backed up regularly (which I mostly did out of paranoia over theft).

Portable battery: saved my life. I don’t remember which brand per se, but 10k mAh means it can charge my iPhone from dead about twice or keep me going through a full day of use. And it only cost $10--don’t overpay for these.

Towel.

Microfiber meant it folded up small, so I got a larger size than I technically needed (60″ long) but I love big towels so worth it

2 padlocks

Weather related: both packs had a built in waterproof cover, hat, 2 bandannas, gloves

Bandannas are very handy for keeping cool in the sun and keeping warm in the cold, kid you not. I’m glad I brought 2 because I lost one towards the end.

Raincoat + fleece over a t-shirt is good for basically 30F/0C through to 90F/30C. Zip off pants are good for 40F/5C through 90F/30C but the windchill can get a bit much at colder temperatures. I didn’t do too badly but on a winter trip I’d want leggings to put under the pants.

Journal, backup notebook, pen, 3 pencils

Photo ID: US passport, UK student visa, ISIC card

Student visa isn’t going to be accessible to everyone but it proves EU residency (well, it did at the time) which gives access to discounts.

ISIC card is the international student card. It is not super expensive and it serves as proof of studentship just about everywhere. I got very bold at walking up to people and saying “I am a student” and waving this to see what happened.

#text post #luggage #organizational

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marauders70s · 6 years

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Congrats on 6k dude! 1. Mom, cute, weird 2. Ummmmm...rn big sweatshirts but when I was little I really really wanted a remote control helicopter 3. I'd really like to either have a cafe or do Smith in psychology 4. Probably Nico di Angelo from pjo 5. Doing the dishes

yay anon :)

House: HUFFLEPUFFExplanation: You’re cute, weird, and like big sweatshirts? You are the cutest Puff ever. Quidditch loan you their school sweaters just to coo at you.Favorite Hogwarts Club: Match Up Mentors (MUMs) look out for younger students without a good support network. Favorite Shop in Diagon Alley/Hogsmeade: Madame Puddifoot’s Tea Shop. Everyone always finds it sappy, but there is literally no safer feeling place than the window seat with a cup of tea on a rainy Hogsmeade Saturday and a good friend across the table.Post-Hogwarts Job: You take over Madame Puddifoot’s when you hear she’s having trouble making the rent. You keep the name, and she becomes a silent partner. You revamp the decor, something a little more ironically vintage, clean and crisp and beautiful. The residents of Hogsmeade - always loyal customers before - absolutely rave over your holiday specials and decors. You manage to put in a floating second story in later years, open to the sun on sunny days, and a bubble of shelter on rainy and snowy ones. Congrats on your tiny café in the only all-magical town in GB.

To hear your M70s Student Life, send me an owl in my asks with the requirements!

#m70s studentlife

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liodensim · 7 years

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99 Little Bugs in the Code...

Epic Bug Fixing Day

Today is a day admins picked as the day of Bug Cleansing. The work behind the scenes was taking many days or even weeks, but it was designed to be part of today's update. The following bugs were fixed: * Chasing lionesses into Explore resulted in their markings being completely wiped * Cubs born with 60% or lower marking opacity * Cubs born with 0% opacity markings * Using Ochre Gnawrocks on lionesses did not pass down selected marking * Battle portraits did not display markings in slots 11-20 * Custom lionesses were created with less than 10 marking slots * Users were not gaining SB in Explore despite being nowhere near the 5000 SB cap * Patrolling cooldown was stuck for users, making them unable to patrol their submales * April Fools Mugshot decor removed lineart on lions * Stocking Branch via Organisation tab didn't work due to "not enough space in Branch" * Stoic personality lost 10% energy from a fight, rather than 7%, when the fight is automatically won with a Lucky Foot * August event... ... rewarding too many Dry Bones for Leopard encounter ... did not display DB/CB earnings ... only showed "+2 Small Meat Chunks" despite giving 3 * Typo on "Self-Absorbed (Evil)" personality RP message - "buttmumch", fixed to "buttmunch" * Red Bulls and Roasted Lambs were doubling energy for much longer than 8 hours * Viewing other users' kings displayed your own energy percentage (along with Red Bull status) * "Explore" breadcrumbs should read "Crossroads" * Inbox notifications displaying even when users do not have any new PMs * +0 SMR when using toys from a lion's page * Cubs/adolescents that were sent to the Giving Tree did not display on the father's "Sired Cubs" list * Incorrect Wiki link on tutorial * Footer links on mobile LD not clickable * Incorrect rewards being given out for the tutorial * Scrying Stone showing broken images * Energy Boosts usable while buried * Wardrobe issues concerning double linearts, glitching when moving marking slots, etc. have been fixed * Users being able to own multiple clans * Instant birthing actually contributes to your cub count now * "You Won A Raffle Prize!" PMs containing broken link * Raffle hosts not receiving item entries * Manually ending a raffle... ... did not award the host with SB ... did not generate a Game Notification with what the host earned ... did not display in SB or GB History if earned any currency ... no User Log entry was created * Using a Grain of Paradise or Buffalo Scrotum now distinguishes which one in User Log * Added "Inbox" breadcrumb to "Read Message" page Lag tweaks: * Hourly cron no longer purges all caches at once - this should help squashing full hour lag. Paypal issues: * A tweak was made to the Paypal script to try and prevent some of the issues a small handful of users were facing on receiving GB.

Smol things: 5 new frontpage rotating screenshots added (made by Elementalist) 17 new frontpage random NPC pictures added (June - July)

Shad has added new tags in Misc. and August categories! :D

Raffle Lioness

Congrats Bazial (#18031)! You have won the last raffle lady! New lady with the SImien Mountains BG and Quartz Inverted Zebra is up for impressing in Special Lioness area in Explore or in NEWS section under News Post List!

Polls and Dev Notes

Looks like 2100+ votes for new Felis Teen Female have made it clear that you guys want it for an art update. Now, Xylax cannot promise he can make it for next week's Friday because he twisted his arm ;'D We'll see! LINK - New poll! We have a lot of Reptile Roundup levels planned for future months/years but maybe you could help us pick which ones should be next?

#lioden-sim #lioden-news #lioden

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bloginstahiphop-blog · 5 years

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Egan Bernal set to win from Geraint Thomas

Egan Bernal is poised to become the first Colombian to win the Tour de France after finishing Saturday's penultimate stage in the yellow jersey. Tradition dictates that the race leader is not challenged on Sunday's largely processional final stage to Paris. Bernal, 22, will become the youngest Tour winner for 110 years, with Ineos team-mate Geraint Thomas in second. Dutchman Steven Kruijswijk moved up to third as Julian Alaphilippe faded on an Alpine stage won by Vincenzo Nibali. Italian Nibali, winner of the Tour de France in 2014, was in the day's break and attacked again on the climb to the finish at Val Thorens, winning by 10 seconds from Spain's Alejandro Valverde. Bernal and Thomas, who won last year's Tour, finished stage 20 a few seconds later, crossing the line arm-in-arm, with huge grins on their faces. They came into the race as joint leaders for Ineos and, providing they both reach the finish in Paris on Sunday, will end it first and second in the general classification. "We're now close to making it official," said Bernal. "There's one stage left but, normally, if everything goes well, I can say that I've won my first Tour. "It's incredible. I just want to get to the finish line in Paris and after I'll be calmer. "Colombia is on the verge of winning its first Tour, We already had won the Giro d'Italia and La Vuelta a Espana, but the Tour was missing and it's a great honour to think that I'm the one achieving this." Welshman Thomas, who ended the stage trailing in the overall standings by one minute, 11 seconds, wrote on Twitter: "Congrats Egan Bernal. What a rider. The first of many." Bernal, who will also collect the white jersey as the best young rider in the race, will put to an end a run of four successive British winners - Chris Froome winning three of his four titles from 2015 and Thomas triumphing last year. Listen: BeSpoke at the Tour: Stage 20 - Bernal victorious Tour 'night and day' compared to 2018 - Thomas Joint team leadership 'worked to perfection' Three-time world champin Sagan pulls a trademark wheelie as he crosses the finish line on stage 20 The green points jersey classification will be won for a record seventh time by Slovakian Peter Sagan, who pulled a wheelie as he rode over the finish line several minutes after the stage winner, while the polka dot King of the Mountains jersey will go to Frenchman Romain Bardet. That will be some consolation for the French supporters who had been hoping to see a home victory for the first time since Bernhard Hinault won his record-equalling fifth Tour in 1985. Alaphilippe, the world's number one-ranked male cyclist, had led the race for 14 days, and after holding the yellow jersey through the Pyrenees in week two also retained it after the first day in the Alps. However, he finally cracked on Friday's storm-shortened 19th stage and he again fell away on Saturday's final climb of the three-week race. He is set to finish fifth overall. France's other big hope, Thibaut Pinot, had also looked strong in the Pyrenees, but a freak injury, caused when his thigh hit his handlebar on stage 17, saw him eventually abandon the race from fifth place during stage 19. How stage 20 unfolded Saturday's stage was reduced by 71km to just 59.5km, with one major climb - the 19.9km ascent of the Cormet de Roselend - chopped from the race because a landslide, caused by stormy weather in the Alps, had blocked the road. That left the riders facing an unusual race along a dual carriageway across the valley from Albertville to the bottom of the day's solitary 33km climb to the ski resort of Val Thorens. More than 20 broke clear and opened a lead of around two minutes, 30 seconds as they reached the ascent but with the race for the overall title happening in the peloton behind them, their lead was gradually eroded. The Jumbo-Visma team of Kruijswijk, who started the stage in fourth, 88 seconds adrift of Bernal, set a furious pace from the bottom of the ascent. Kruijswijk started the day just 12 seconds behind third-placed Thomas and 40 behind Alaphilippe and his team's efforts were rewarded when Alaphilippe cracked with around 13km of the race remaining. However, Kruijswijk was unable to break the Ineos riders with Thomas and Bernal content to sit and ride tempo all the way to the finish line, Dutch rider Kruijswijk eventually finished eight seconds behind Thomas to cement third place overall, one minute, 31 seconds behind Bernal. Why the Bernal win will not be a surprise Bernal (right) was a key domestique for Thomas when he won his Tour title last year The climbing specialist, who was born on 13 January, 1997 in Colombia's capital city Bogota at an altitude of 2,600m, showed his potential at last year's Tour, when he rode as a domestique to Thomas and four-time champion Chris Froome. After pacing Thomas to victory on Alpe d'Huez and ultimately the overall title, Froome said: "He's got an amazing engine. You only have to look at what he did on Alpe d'Huez, for a 21-year-old, that's amazing. "There is a lot in Egan that reminds me of myself when I was younger. It's great having him on the team and he brings a lot of young, new energy to the group." He joined Team Sky for the 2018 season, after winning the prestigious Tour de l'Avenir - a stage race for under-23 riders that has seen many of its winners go on to Tour de France success. He won the Tour Colombia and Tour of California last year before making his Tour de France debut as a domestique to Thomas and four-time winner Chris Froome. This year, three crashes helped Bernal arrive at the Tour as joint leader of the Ineos team. The first was his own, on a training ride in Andorra, and it ruled him out of May's Giro d'Italia, where he had been due to lead the team for the first time in a Grand Tour. Froome's season-ending crash at June's Criterium du Dauphine then pushed Bernal up the Ineos pecking order for the Tour de France, while Thomas' spill at the Tour de Suisse later that month saw Bernal take over as the sole leader of that team and he went on to win the race. And he twice rode away from Thomas in the Alps this week to position himself as Ineos' strongest rider at the Tour and secure his first Grand Tour win in only his second attempt. Bernal will become the third youngest winner of the Tour. The youngest is France's Henri Cornet, who was 19 when he was controversially awarded victory in the second edition of the race in 1904, while Luxembourg's Francois Faber was a few days younger than Bernal when he took the 1909 title. Overall standings after stage 20: 1. Egan Bernal (Col/Ineos) 79hrs 52mins 52secs 2. Geraint Thomas (GB/Ineos) +1min 11secs 3. Steven Kruijswijk (Ned/Jumbo-Visma) +1min 31secs 4. Emanuel Buchmann (Ger/Bora-Hansgrohe) +1min 56secs 5. Julian Alaphilippe (Fra/ Deceuninck-Quick Step) +3mins 45secs 6. Mikel Landa (Spa/Movistar) +4mins 23secs 7. Rigoberto Uran (Col/EF Education First) +5mins 15secs 8. Nairo Quintana (Col/Movistar) +5mins 30secs 9. Alejandro Valverde (Spa/Movistar) +6mins 12secs 10. Warren Barguil (Fra/Arkea-Samsic) +7mins 32secs Stage 20 result: 1. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita/Bahrain-Merida) 1hrs 51mins 53secs 2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa/Movistar) +10secs 3. Mikel Landa (Spa/Movistar) +14secs 4. Egan Bernal (Col/Ineos) +17secs 5. Geraint Thomas (GB/Ineos) Same time 6. Rigoberto Uran (Col/EF Education First) +23secs 7. Emanuel Buchmann (Ger/Bora-Hansgrohe) Same time 8. Steven Kruijswijk (Ned/Jumbo-Visma) +25secs 9. Wout Poels (Ned/Ineos) +30secs 10. Nairo Quintana (Col/Movistar) Same time SOURCE:https://www.bbc.com/ Read the full article

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thisdaynews · 5 years

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Tour de France 2019: Egan Bernal set to win from Geraint Thomas

New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/tour-de-france-2019-egan-bernal-set-to-win-from-geraint-thomas/

Tour de France 2019: Egan Bernal set to win from Geraint Thomas

Thomas congratulated Ineos team-mate Bernal as they crossed the finish line together at the end of stage 20

Egan Bernal is poised to become the first Colombian to win the Tour de France after finishing Saturday’s penultimate stage in the yellow jersey.

Tradition dictates that the race leader is not challenged on Sunday’s largely processional final stage to Paris.

Bernal, 22, will become the youngest Tour winner for 110 years, with Ineos team-mate Geraint Thomas in second.

Dutchman Steven Kruijswijk moved up to third as Julian Alaphilippe faded on an Alpine stage won by Vincenzo Nibali.

Italian Nibali, winner of the Tour de France in 2014, was in the day’s break and attacked again on the climb to the finish at Val Thorens, winning by 10 seconds from Spain’s Alejandro Valverde.

Bernal and Thomas, who won last year’s Tour, finished stage 20 a few seconds later, crossing the line arm-in-arm, with huge grins on their faces. They came into the race as joint leaders for Ineos and, providing they both reach the finish in Paris on Sunday, will end it first and second in the general classification.

“We’re now close to making it official,” said Bernal. “There’s one stage left but, normally, if everything goes well, I can say that I’ve won my first Tour.

“It’s incredible. I just want to get to the finish line in Paris and after I’ll be calmer.

“Colombia is on the verge of winning its first Tour, We already had won the Giro d’Italia and La Vuelta a Espana, but the Tour was missing and it’s a great honour to think that I’m the one achieving this.”

Welshman Thomas, who ended the stage trailing in the overall standings by one minute, 11 seconds, wrote on Twitter: “Congrats Egan Bernal. What a rider. The first of many.”

Bernal, who will also collect the white jersey as the best young rider in the race, will put to an end a run of four successive British winners – Chris Froome winning three of his four titles from 2015 and Thomas triumphing last year.

Three-time world champin Sagan pulls a trademark wheelie as he crosses the finish line on stage 20

The green points jersey classification will be won for a record seventh time by Slovakian Peter Sagan, who pulled a wheelie as he rode over the finish line several minutes after the stage winner, while the polka dot King of the Mountains jersey will go to Frenchman Romain Bardet.

That will be some consolation for the French supporters who had been hoping to see a home victory for the first time since Bernhard Hinault won his record-equalling fifth Tour in 1985.

Alaphilippe, the world’s number one-ranked male cyclist, had led the race for 14 days, and after holding the yellow jersey through the Pyrenees in week two also retained it after the first day in the Alps.

However, he finally cracked on Friday’s storm-shortened 19th stage and he again fell away on Saturday’s final climb of the three-week race. He is set to finish fifth overall.

France’s other big hope, Thibaut Pinot, had also looked strong in the Pyrenees, but a freak injury, caused when his thigh hit his handlebar on stage 17, saw him eventually abandon the race from fifth place during stage 19.

How stage 20 unfolded

Saturday’s stage was reduced by 71km to just 59.5km, with one major climb – the 19.9km ascent of the Cormet de Roselend – chopped from the race because a landslide, caused by stormy weather in the Alps, had blocked the road.

That left the riders facing an unusual race along a dual carriageway across the valley from Albertville to the bottom of the day’s solitary 33km climb to the ski resort of Val Thorens.

More than 20 broke clear and opened a lead of around two minutes, 30 seconds as they reached the ascent but with the race for the overall title happening in the peloton behind them, their lead was gradually eroded.

The Jumbo-Visma team of Kruijswijk, who started the stage in fourth, 88 seconds adrift of Bernal, set a furious pace from the bottom of the ascent.

Kruijswijk started the day just 12 seconds behind third-placed Thomas and 40 behind Alaphilippe and his team’s efforts were rewarded when Alaphilippe cracked with around 13km of the race remaining.

However, Kruijswijk was unable to break the Ineos riders with Thomas and Bernal content to sit and ride tempo all the way to the finish line,

Dutch rider Kruijswijk eventually finished eight seconds behind Thomas to cement third place overall, one minute, 31 seconds behind Bernal.

Why the Bernal win will not be a surprise

Bernal (right) was a key domestique for Thomas when he won his Tour title last year

The climbing specialist, who was born on 13 January, 1997 in Colombia’s capital city Bogota at an altitude of 2,600m, showed his potential at last year’s Tour, when he rode as a domestique to Thomas and four-time champion Chris Froome.

After pacing Thomas to victory on Alpe d’Huez and ultimately the overall title, Froome said: “He’s got an amazing engine. You only have to look at what he did on Alpe d’Huez, for a 21-year-old, that’s amazing.

“There is a lot in Egan that reminds me of myself when I was younger. It’s great having him on the team and he brings a lot of young, new energy to the group.”

He joined Team Sky for the 2018 season, after winning the prestigious Tour de l’Avenir – a stage race for under-23 riders that has seen many of its winners go on to Tour de France success.

He won the Tour Colombia and Tour of California last year before making his Tour de France debut as a domestique to Thomas and four-time winner Chris Froome.

This year, three crashes helped Bernal arrive at the Tour as joint leader of the Ineos team.

The first was his own, on a training ride in Andorra, and it ruled him out of May’s Giro d’Italia, where he had been due to lead the team for the first time in a Grand Tour.

Froome’s season-ending crash at June’s Criterium du Dauphine then pushed Bernal up the Ineos pecking order for the Tour de France, while Thomas’ spill at the Tour de Suisse later that month saw Bernal take over as the sole leader of that team and he went on to win the race.

And he twice rode away from Thomas in the Alps this week to position himself as Ineos’ strongest rider at the Tour and secure his first Grand Tour win in only his second attempt.

Bernal will become the third youngest winner of the Tour. The youngest is France’s Henri Cornet, who was 19 when he was controversially awarded victory in the second edition of the race in 1904, while Luxembourg’s Francois Faber was a few days younger than Bernal when he took the 1909 title.

Overall standings after stage 20:

1. Egan Bernal (Col/Ineos) 79hrs 52mins 52secs

2. Geraint Thomas (GB/Ineos) +1min 11secs

3. Steven Kruijswijk (Ned/Jumbo-Visma) +1min 31secs

4. Emanuel Buchmann (Ger/Bora-Hansgrohe) +1min 56secs

5. Julian Alaphilippe (Fra/ Deceuninck-Quick Step) +3mins 45secs

6. Mikel Landa (Spa/Movistar) +4mins 23secs

7. Rigoberto Uran (Col/EF Education First) +5mins 15secs

8. Nairo Quintana (Col/Movistar) +5mins 30secs

9. Alejandro Valverde (Spa/Movistar) +6mins 12secs

10. Warren Barguil (Fra/Arkea-Samsic) +7mins 32secs

Stage 20 result:

1. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita/Bahrain-Merida) 1hrs 51mins 53secs

2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa/Movistar) +10secs

3. Mikel Landa (Spa/Movistar) +14secs

4. Egan Bernal (Col/Ineos) +17secs

5. Geraint Thomas (GB/Ineos) Same time

6. Rigoberto Uran (Col/EF Education First) +23secs

7. Emanuel Buchmann (Ger/Bora-Hansgrohe) Same time

8. Steven Kruijswijk (Ned/Jumbo-Visma) +25secs

9. Wout Poels (Ned/Ineos) +30secs

10. Nairo Quintana (Col/Movistar) Same time

#Geraint #Thomas

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lioden-sim · 7 years

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Mutation Variations, Regent Mane and More!

Mutation Variations!

That's right! You can now have a variation of mutation of same type! We're releasing now a first project with excitement to see how you guys like it and maybe bring some spice to common mutations. Our first project is Primal - we didn't really intend for this mutation to be rare, but we also didn't expect for it to become so popular. Players complained the value dropped and everyone has a primal now. Well, why not make it fun again? Primal males can pass on Primal trait, we can agree on that. You either get a normal cub or a Primal, unless that rare chance kicks in and you get another mutation. Now, in addition to usual cubs, Primal males can now produce a variation of Primal mutation called Smilus. It will show up on any male cub as Primal (Smilus). It will look exactly like normal Primal, but the male adult has a small visual change.

This is how Smilus looks like all grown up! How exciting! Primal (Smilus) is still a Primal, meaning it breeds just like it, has same passing chances etc. That's why it's a variation - only visuals change in this situation, and only for adult males. You can consider Leopon generation system to be of something similar - it's still the same Leopon but it has different trait when it shows (1st generation). We find it a nice first addition to test out the field! That means, using Buffalo Scrotum and Red Cock will give you better chances of breeding a Smilus! We have also added a special item in Oasis for just 1 GB called Pennyroyal that will boost chances of a mutation variation if fed to Primal stud.

- Primal (Smilus) can only be bred from a Primal parent. - Primal (Smilus) is a male-only mutation, and will show up since birth. - Primal (Smilus) has exact same genetics and breeding data as normal Primals. - It can be bred naturally at a low chance, but the chance can be boosted with an item. - Primal (Smilus) can become a stud and breed, but the Smilus trait is not higher than in normal Primals. - It will affect cubs only bred after this update. - Mutie on Demand: Primal will NOT give you the variation type, only the basic Primal.

Now be aware they are not as rare as Leopons, at all. It's just something 'rarer' to aim for or surprise you with! What about the future? :D In next week or more, depending on workflow, Primals will get another mutation variation that we planned alongside called Felis. The breeding will look a bit like this:

Primal (Felis) will affect male and female adult Primal stages both. It will work just like Smilus meaning it will have Primal genetics [meaning females can't pass the trait], and will be passed ONLY from a Primal father (no matter if the father has a variation or not) and I feel happy to show you a spoiler right away!

I wanted to show in Lioden lore how Primal variations look different from usual lions. Primal is very large, muscly, robust. It has short hind legs, thick fur, elongated face and sabre teeth, as well as bobbed tail and very fluffy mane. Females are fuzzier as well. Smilus looks more like a lion and is slightly smaller than Primal. It is very muscly and has long fur, but not as thick mane as Primal. It has longer tail than Primal covered in long hair, as well as long sabre teeth. I perceive them as very aggressive, but you can roleplay anything! Felis would be almost the size of a normal lion, is very elongated and lean, however very muscly. It has arched back and shorter, sturdier hind legs, along with bunny-like tail. It also has shorter sabre teeth and scarcer mane, but it has lynx-like fuzz on sides, females as well. The ears are tufted and body fur, where it's not sticking out, is very short. Of course as usual, mutations do NOT have matching decors. Decors match only to universal lions, if you want a dynamic decor that fits a mutation, feel free to make a custom decor with title/description that covers "For X mutation". Remember I am 100% fine with you drawing one of our own Decors for mutations as long as it's drawn completely by you! Example "Opal Jewelry for Dwarves" :D Also the battle portrait is moved down to match where head is. Decors on den portraits are always suited to how universal lions work so they might look shifted. This cannot be avoided. Cons of mutations. Future plans for variations cover refreshing mutations such as Folded Ears or maybe even Achromia! I also have something in mind for Dwarves (which you can suspect what it is if you watched my art stream! :D) Hope this new mechanic will bring joy to everyone and will make everyone excited. Let's not lie to ourselves, mutations turned out to be a huge part of Lioden, and I think I will celebrate that with everyone. Curious how the art looks like up close to see how I shade or any other reason? Check out the large .jpg files! Smilus Felis M Felis F Now, for those who aren't as much into mutations we have much more in this update to smile about!

Regent Mane

This is a new Oasis mane that you guys invented, suggested and voted on through past months. It should be ready with 95% of decors onsite and is ready for any custom decor updates you guys have :D I will update the .psd files in the art thread this weekend!

New Nose and Eyes

New Custom Eyes - Cucumber! Passing rates - (45% cucumber, 10% emerald, 15% green, 20% olive, 10% jade) - they will appear in groupies as well! :D New Custom Nose - Sanguine! not much to add here, it's not tied to any specific base yet so feel free to use Nose Changers :D

Bug Fixes and Tweaks

* May Event - New cute encounter tied to tier 3 and the Brotherhood storyline will appear in explore. Have fun hunting >:D * Fixed for future - Exclusive NCL markings/eyes/nose turning off when Event NCL's are launched. * Fixed - Peach Nose not appearing on exclusive NCLs * Fixed - Tree cubs showing wrong base genetics - will fix all existing cubs tonight don't worry! * Fixed - Vulture Egg stack not giving karma * Fixed - Groupies having both Poses and Mutations at same time (wowza that luck) - if yours is still showing that just PM Katze or Xylax for a fix. You deserve that mutation. * Fixed - Beetle skins not sorting in hoard * Fixed - removed hunger drop text when breeding lions * Fixed - wardrobe not pulling piebald info * Added subforum in stockpile for Gorilla Cub interest! * Added Userlog tweak - it will now show which slot and marking you used RMA or Marking Removal on. * NEW - You can now expand frozen and submale slots forever (no more restriction!), but the frozen slots price will grow automatically and we can't really tweak that ;'D hey at least submale slots will stay at same price as the current top one!

Remember that May event will end on May 31st at 11:59 pm and all your currency will be stored on your account until next year. After we're done with Felis I should catch up with pending mutation markings, sorry for wait! Don't worry, next huge update (there might be smaller ones first) is Explore Expansion :D we're on a roll! Thank you so much testers for all your help!

Raffle Lioness

Congrats Dawnsoul (#22310)! You have won the last raffle lady! New lady with the Rainforest BG is up for impressing in Special Lioness area in Explore or in NEWS section under News Post List! ;D

Polls and Dev Notes

Looks like you guys decided in the last poll that community wants to have June daily quests and NPC to talk to, remember that in 2017 there will be no storyline yet! So, new poll LINK August Storyline thoughts? Help me decide if I should give you guys romancing option or maybe that's too cliche? Or, why not be nice and make three options instead? Halp

#lioden-sim #lioden-news #lioden

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truesportsfan · 4 years

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How Our New NFL Model Did This Season

Quarterbacks ruled the 2019 NFL season, with Patrick Mahomes bringing the Lombardi Trophy to Kansas City and Lamar Jackson emerging as the league MVP. Quarterbacks were in control of the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, too, as a key factor of the new version of our Elo rating system, which adjusted for the performance of every starting QB. Now that the season is over, in the spirit of checking our work, we wanted to look back at the 2019 season and see how well the new system did — and whether it improved on our old, simple Elo system from years past.

One simple way to judge prediction accuracy is to look at how close the predicted point spread came to the actual score differential of each game (squaring the errors to give a larger penalty to bad misses). And in that department, new Elo beat old Elo this season, albeit by a smaller margin than we might have expected based on the preceding five seasons.

But our preferred way to judge the accuracy of a forecast is using Brier scores, which are essentially the average squared error between a probabilistic forecast and what actually happened. (Lower Brier scores are better because they mean your prediction was closer to being correct.) And by that standard, our new Elo ratings basically performed as expected. It was a bit of an unpredictable NFL season according to either system, particularly during the playoffs, but the improvement in Brier score from the old version of Elo (0.224) to the new Elo (0.219) by the end of the 2019 season ended up being almost exactly what it had been when it was backtested over the previous five seasons, on average:

Using Brier scores, let’s look at how the model’s accuracy evolved over time. Very early in the season, new Elo had an edge, perhaps because it was accounting for the many quarterback injuries that beset teams during the first few weeks. Then things in the league got weird. And the old system — which didn’t adjust for QBs, travel distance or rest days — was actually handling the weirdness better for most of the first half of the year. The new model didn’t pull ahead for good in terms of seasonlong Brier score until Week 11, at which point it maintained a lead and even expanded it, with injuries and teams resting starters in the closing weeks of the schedule.

The playoffs were a bit rough for the new model, primarily because of two games: Seattle at Philadelphia in the wild-card round (where new Elo’s Brier was 0.480, compared with 0.380 for the old model) and Tennessee at Baltimore in the divisional round (new Elo’s Brier was 0.755 — really bad! — compared with 0.582 for the old system). Our backtesting suggested that there are real predictive effects to late-season QB hot and cold streaks, and that favorites tend to play better in the postseason, but both of those factors ended up haunting the new model in that pair of upsets. Overall in the playoffs, new Elo had a worse Brier score (0.272) than the old model did (0.261) — although, as we mentioned earlier, that didn’t really cause it to do worse than expected for the entire season overall. And, of course, it also helped that the new system did much better in the conference championships and the Super Bowl.

Finally, just for fun, let’s look at the games in which the new model had its best and worst picks of the season, relative to the old system:

QB-adjusted Elo’s greatest hits (and misses) of 2019

Highest and lowest Brier score differentials between FiveThirtyEight’s old and new QB-adjusted NFL Elo models by game, 2019 season

Hits: Winner Loser Winner’s W% by Elo Date Team QB Team QB Old New Brier Diff. 10/27/19 GB Rodgers KC Moore 32% 58% -0.296 12/29/19 TEN Tannehill HOU McCarron 35 59 -0.249 10/6/19 OAK Carr CHI Daniel 27 47 -0.242 12/29/19 CHI Trubisky MIN Mannion 28 45 -0.207 9/22/19 SF Garoppolo PIT Rudolph 53 79 -0.177 9/5/19 GB Rodgers CHI Trubisky 24 36 -0.165 10/6/19 BAL Jackson PIT Rudolph 42 58 -0.165 10/13/19 NYJ Darnold DAL Prescott 30 42 -0.159 12/22/19 NYJ Darnold PIT Hodges 34 46 -0.142 11/17/19 DAL Prescott DET Driskel 55 75 -0.140 Misses: Winner Loser Winner’s W% by Elo Date Team QB Team QB Old New Brier Diff. 10/13/19 PIT Hodges LAC Rivers 39% 20% 0.266 12/1/19 CIN Dalton NYJ Darnold 42 24 0.238 9/22/19 CAR K. Allen ARI Murray 54 35 0.219 9/29/19 CAR K. Allen HOU Watson 35 22 0.189 11/3/19 KC Moore MIN Cousins 56 39 0.178 1/11/20 TEN Tannehill BAL Jackson 24 13 0.174 11/3/19 DEN K. Allen CLE Mayfield 58 41 0.170 11/10/19 PIT Rudolph LAR Goff 56 40 0.158 9/22/19 NO Bridgewater SEA Wilson 42 30 0.153 9/29/19 NO Bridgewater DAL Prescott 63 47 0.147

Unsurprisingly, most of these examples revolved around backup quarterbacks, for good or bad — either because the regular starter was knocked out (which old Elo didn’t know about) or because he was returning after a long absence. Sometimes adjusting for this resulted in an overcorrection, such as when Pittsburgh was down to third-string QB Devlin Hodges in Week 6 yet somehow managed to still win. But more often it helped, such as when Mahomes went down and Kansas City lost with Matt Moore at the helm in Week 8.

So overall, we think new Elo had a solid rookie season, and the new changes helped the model’s predictions. Although there are a few areas of improvement to potentially investigate over the offseason, it was encouraging that the new system outperfomed the old system by almost precisely what we expected based on our backtesting. It was also a good sign that the model was able to consistently outpredict the average reader in our forecast game, “winning” all but two weeks of the season and continuing the old system’s pattern of dominance over the field from previous seasons:

Our new Elo had a pretty good season vs. the field

Weekly average differences between points won by our new QB-adjusted Elo and by readers in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game, 2019 regular season and playoffs

Week Games Avg. Net Pts Week Games Avg. Net Pts 1 16 +7.9 11 14 +27.8 2 16 +13.6 12 14 +54.0 3 16 -1.0 13 16 +35.6 4 15 -2.7 14 16 +57.7 5 15 +19.8 15 16 +3.4 6 14 +24.6 16 16 +14.1 7 14 +8.1 17 16 +72.2 8 15 +26.8 Playoffs 11 +69.4 9 14 +45.9 Season total 267 +548.6 10 13 +71.4

The scoring system is nonlinear, based on the accuracy of the FiveThirtyEight model relative to readers’ probabilistic forecasts, with particularly strong punishments for overconfident incorrect picks by either side.

Speaking of which, congrats to Jordan Sweeney, who led all readers in the postseason with 275 points, and to Griffin Colaizzi, who used the Super Bowl to pull ahead and win the full-season contest with 1,126.2 points. And a big thanks to everyone who played all season! We can’t wait to fire up the model again in about six months and try to get that Brier score even lower next year.

source https://truesportsfan.com/football/how-our-new-nfl-model-did-this-season/

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jodyedgarus · 5 years

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Pennsylvania Is A Battleground State … In Football

Pennsylvanians went into the 2018 season believing that it might be a banner year for the state’s NFL teams. The Philadelphia Eagles were league champs the season before, and the Pittsburgh Steelers had harbored their own championship aspirations before an upset playoff loss against Jacksonville. Although we’ve never seen a Steelers-Eagles Super Bowl, we’ve come close a few times this century — both teams made the conference championship in 2008-09 (Eagles lost), 2004-05 (Steelers lost) and 2001-02 (both lost). There was reason to think 2018 might bring another chance for a clash between Eastern and Western PA on the game’s biggest stage.

Fourteen weeks later, that’s not looking so hot. The Steelers started strong despite a contract impasse with star running back Le’Veon Bell, but they’ve faltered recently in a three-game losing streak and now are in danger of missing the playoffs. And Pittsburgh is this year’s Pennsylvania success story. The defending-champion Eagles continue to suffer from one of history’s worst Super Bowl hangovers and are down to an 18 percent playoff probability after Sunday’s crushing loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

In the midst of all of that turmoil, though, Pennsylvania will be at the center of the football universe for Week 15 of the NFL season. According to our combination of matchup quality (i.e., the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings in each game) and game importance (how likely it is to swing every team’s odds of making the playoffs),1 the Steelers’ game against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon is the best of the week, while Philly’s Sunday-night clash against the Rams is tied for second-best:

The best matchups of Week 15

Week 15 games by the highest average Elo rating (using the harmonic mean) plus the total potential swing for all NFL teams’ playoff chances based on the result, according to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions

Playoff % Playoff % Team A Current Avg. Chg* Team B Current Avg. Chg* Total Change Game Quality PIT 62.3% +/-23.1 NE 99.3% +/-0.7 47.1 1617 PHI 17.6 14.7 LAR 100.0 0.0 30.8 1604 MIN 56.8 17.9 MIA 20.2 11.3 58.4 1491 CAR 8.9 9.4 NO 100.0 0.0 20.3 1605 IND 27.2 12.3 DAL 99.2 0.9 26.5 1546 BAL 54.6 15.1 TB 0.8 1.1 32.8 1508 TEN 34.5 19.1 NYG 0.5 0.5 40.8 1485 LAC 99.7 0.2 KC 100.0 0.0 4.0 1656 GB 3.2 4.2 CHI 99.9 0.2 10.0 1527 HOU 96.1 4.9 NYJ 0.0 0.0 12.7 1440 WSH 10.5 8.6 JAX 0.0 0.0 19.8 1429 DEN 5.1 3.2 CLE 0.5 0.7 9.0 1445 DET 3.5 3.3 BUF 0.0 0.0 10.1 1431 SEA 99.3 1.1 SF 0.0 0.0 3.3 1481 ATL 0.1 0.0 ARI 0.0 0.0 1.5 1409 CIN 0.4 0.3 OAK 0.0 0.0 2.4 1370

Game quality is the harmonic mean of the Elo ratings for the two teams in a given matchup. Total Change adds up the potential swing in playoff odds for every team in the league (not just the two teams listed).

*Average change is weighted by the likelihood of a win or loss. (Ties are excluded.)

Source: ESPN.com

Despite their mind-blowing last-second loss to the Miami Dolphins — and their generally less-impressive-than-usual season — the Patriots don’t have a huge amount riding on their matchup with Pittsburgh. (Win or lose, our model gives them at least a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs.) But the game does have major implications for the Steelers’ postseason future. Right now, Pittsburgh is one of five AFC teams with between a 20 percent and 65 percent playoff probability, according to our model. If the Steelers win, their number goes from 62 percent to 85 percent; if they lose, it drops to 38 percent.

Gone are the questions about whether the Steelers could maintain their offensive output without Bell. With James Conner carrying the load at RB instead, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks roughly the same in expected points added per game (fifth) as it did a year ago (third) and has improved from 21st to 11th in EPA on the ground. Even without Conner against the Raiders — and with backups Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley combining for just 32 yards on 16 carries — Pittsburgh’s offense exceeded its usual weekly EPA average (although most teams do that against the Raiders). The real issue has been on defense, where the team ranks fourth-to-last in EPA over the past three weeks, including dead last against the pass. When Derek Carr is shredding your D for a 122.4 passer rating, there are some problems that must be addressed by Mike Tomlin and staff.

And Steelers-Patriots has ripple effects that stretch far beyond just Pittsburgh’s chances. The Baltimore Ravens’ odds will go up or down by 13 percentage points depending on who wins in Pittsburgh; Tennessee and Indianapolis will also see their odds shift by multiple percentage points based on the outcome. Three other teams — Miami, Denver and Houston — will get changes of about 1 percentage point apiece. All told, about 47 points of playoff probability will move around on the basis of New England and Pittsburgh’s contest.

For the Eagles, their playoff chances all but evaporated after falling to Dallas. While they were able to beat Washington (which is now also sitting at 6-7, two games back of the Cowboys, and now auditioning quarterbacks who walk in off the street) two weeks ago in the most important game of Week 13, Philly was unable to replicate that feat in overtime Sunday, losing the most crucial matchup of Week 14. There are still scenarios left whereby the Eagles can make the playoffs, most of which involve them winning out — while facing winning teams in the Rams and Texans over their three remaining games — and the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers losing games down the stretch. But Philadelphia has dug a deep hole for itself with three weeks to go.

As we noted in late October, Carson Wentz and the Eagles’ offense were above average throwing the ball, but that wasn’t enough to offset a suspect running game and a disappointing defense. Since then, Wentz has basically held steady, but the rushing attack has gotten even worse, and the defense has done nothing to turn its season around. After weeks of waiting for the real Eagles to show up and play like champions, it’s probably time to admit that these are the real Eagles — and their hopes of repeating are slim.

A win over L.A. would drag Philadelphia’s playoff chances up to 42 percent, so there is plenty on the line for at least one of the two teams involved Sunday. But with the Rams having locked up their division earlier this month, the game’s second-biggest stakes belong to the Vikings, who would lose 14 points of playoff probability with an Eagles win and gain 6 points if Philly loses. In addition, Washington, Seattle, Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay and Carolina will see at least 1 point of movement to their postseason odds depending on whether the Eagles win or lose.

But most of all, it should be a good game. For all their mediocrity this year, the Eagles are still probably better than their 6-7 record, while the Rams are locked in a fight for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have something to prove offensively after a weak Sunday-night showing against the Bears in Chicago. The Steelers and Patriots are in similar positions — both teams rank among the best in the AFC yet have a lot of questions to answer. Add it up, and the state of Pennsylvania figures to be a key battleground in the playoff ace, even if its teams aren’t exactly as intimidating as they seemed three months ago.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

Want more playoff probabilities? Check out FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings in our NFL prediction interactive, which simulates the rest of the season 100,000 times and tracks every team’s odds. You can also pick against the Elo algorithm in our prediction game. Try your hand and attempt to climb up our giant leaderboard.

Based on data from the prediction contest, here are the matchups in which Elo made its best — and worst — picks against the field of readers last week:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 14

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 14 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET PTS WSH 69% NYG 51% NYG 40, WSH 16 +21.1

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BUF 70 BUF 63 NYJ 27, BUF 23 +7.6

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CAR 62 CAR 56 CLE 26, CAR 20 +4.8

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ARI 51 DET 55 DET 17, ARI 3 +4.6

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NO 74 NO 79 NO 28, TB 14 +1.0

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GB 53 GB 55 GB 34, ATL 20 -0.1

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HOU 68 HOU 67 IND 24, HOU 21 -0.4

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LAC 84 LAC 85 LAC 26, CIN 21 -1.0

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KC 71 KC 72 KC 27, BAL 24 -1.1

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DAL 59 DAL 58 DAL 29, PHI 23 -3.3

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TEN 66 TEN 63 TEN 30, JAX 9 -4.0

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SEA 62 SEA 60 SEA 21, MIN 7 -4.2

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PIT 78 PIT 81 OAK 24, PIT 21 -6.9

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NE 72 NE 75 MIA 34, NE 33 -7.0

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LAR 56 LAR 62 CHI 15, LAR 6 -8.9

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DEN 63 DEN 68 SF 20, DEN 14 -9.0

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Home teams are in bold.

The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Elo beat the typical reader again in Week 14, but it was very close: On average, our predictions won the week by only 6.8 points. Relative to readers, Elo was rightly bearish on the Rams and Broncos, but the readers did get a huge victory over the model in the Giants’ 40-16 blowout of Washington. Knowing that the ‘Skins were down to Mark Sanchez at QB (who was later replaced by Josh “No, not that Josh Johnson” Johnson), readers preyed on Elo’s ignorance and picked Eli Manning and company to win. Although it wasn’t enough to win the week, it was the most lopsided single-game victory of the season by either readers over the computer or vice-versa.

Anyway, congrats to Vyascheslav Tolbert (Mike Tolbert’s Russian cousin?), who led all users in Week 14 with 129.5 points, and to Greg Chili Van Hollebeke, who maintained his No. 1 ranking for the season with 963.4 points. Thanks to everyone who has been playing — and if you haven’t, get in on the action before it’s too late! You can make picks now and still try your luck against Elo, even if you haven’t played yet.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-is-a-battleground-state-in-football/

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livetechnicalsolutions-blog · 6 years

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How to Install Avast Antivirus (2018) Step By Step Guide.

This well ordered manual guide discloses how to install Avast Free Antivirus 2018(variant 12) programming on every single significant Window forms running on your PC or PC – Windows 10, 8, 8.1, 7, Vista and XP (32-bit or 64-bit). It accepts you have the product as of now downloaded and prepared to install on your hard drive or outside gadget like a slimmer drive. For the individuals who like recordings, there is a phenomenal commentated ‘Video Manual‘ on this page.

Avast antivirus framework necessities are not all that much, and truly everybody meets them nowadays, yet in case you don’t know you can check them here.

The entire installation process is extremely straightforward and even nontechnical clients will have the capacity to wrap up. Before you begin please ensure you have the executive access to Windows, without it’s impractical to begin the installation procedure. On the off chance that you don’t have you have to request that your IT fellow do it for you (it tends to be additionally done remotely by means of TeamViewer for instance).

Despite the fact that this guide is centered around the Avast Free Antivirus, you may likewise utilize it when installing other Avast items like Pro Antivirus, Internet Securityor Premier.

1. Run the Avast Setup File (Installer) and Select Installation Type

Find the installer document called ‘avast_free_antivirus_setup_offline.exe,’ or ‘avast_free_antivirus_setup_online.exe,’ on your PC and begin the three-advance installation. Before the installation wizard is propelled you will see the following stacking screen for a couple of moments:

On the off chance that the install wizard isn’t in your dialect, you can transform it in the upper right corner. Your chose dialect will likewise be the one in which you will have the Avast UI, however, you can change the dialect whenever later in the program settings.

On the principal screen you need to pick the kind of installation:

General installation (prescribed) – Avast will be installed with the default set of parts (counting SecureLine VPN, Cleanup, Browser Cleanup, SafeZone Browser, Passwords, and Software Updater).

Custom installation (for cutting edge clients) – You can choose which segments, shields, and dialects you need to install. This is valuable when you would prefer not to install some particular segment like SecureLine VPN or Cleanup.

A full rundown of Avast 2018 parts incorporates (all are installed as a matter of course with the standard installation):

Security – File Shield, Behavior Shield, Web Shield, Mail Shield, Software Updater, Browser Cleanup, Rescue Disk, Wi-Fi Inspector, SafeZone Browser, Avast Online Security, SafePrice

Protection – SecureLine VPN, Passwords

Execution – Cleanup, Game Mode

Except if you are a propelled client, we prescribe to run with the standard installation.

At the base of the initial step, Avast more often than not offers some extra items like Google Chrome, Dropbox, or Avast Passwords. So make sure to check this alternative also and choose whether or not you need that item to be installed.

2. Genuine Avast Installation Process

Amid the second step, you really don’t need to do anything. You can simply sit and watch the advancement bar indicate Avast being downloaded, making a framework reestablish point, and the Avast documents being replicated onto your PC. The installation procedure will take around 2-3 minutes, contingent upon your Internet association, however, you can utilize your PC and do some other action.

3. Avast Installation Finished (Now You Are Protected)

Congrats, now you ought to have Avast antivirus 2018 totally installed on your PC. In the keep going advance simply tap on ‘Proceed’ and complete the installation procedure.

4. Read and Accept Avast Privacy Policy

In the subsequent stage, you need to acknowledge the Avast Privacy Policy. You may peruse it in the full form, however in short – AVAST gathers data from your PC and may impart it to an outsider; then again, this data can’t be utilized for focusing on or recognizing your individual. So extremely no major ordeal. On the off chance that you concur and acknowledge the new EULA, simply tap on the blue catch ‘Proceed’.

OUR TIP If you care about your protection you can quit from any information accumulation by going to Avast settings » ‘Security‘ and un-checking choices ‘Take an interest in the Avast people group’ and ‘Take an interest in information sharing’.

5. Survey Additional Avast Products

In the last advance of the installation procedure, you can survey extra Avast items. Ordinarily the Avast Free Mobile Security for Android. To close the windows tap on the connection ‘No, I would prefer not to secure my Android telephone’.

Now we firmly prescribe to restart PC so Avast is completely coordinated and designed for your framework.

6. Avast Installation Completed – Register for a Free 1-Year License Key (Activation Code)

Once the installation is finished and the framework is restarted, we prescribe to complete a free enlistment so you can utilize the item for one year. Check our guide here – ‘Enlist for Free and Get License Key (Activation Code) for Your Avast Antivirus 2018‘.

Video Manual – How to Install and Register a Free License for Avast Free Antivirus 2018

Known Avast Installation Errors/Problems

Here we will list every known mistake/issues happening amid the Avast installation process and arrangements on how to settle them. On the off chance that you are having any issues with the installation, it would be ideal if you let us know in the remarks underneath.

Framework Requirements for Avast Antivirus 2018 on PC or PC

Working framework Microsoft Windows 10/8.1/8/7 SP1 or higher/Vista/XP SP2 or higher (any Edition, 32-bit or 64-bit)

Processor Intel Pentium 4/AMD Athlon 64 or above

256 MB RAM memory or above

1.5 GB of free hard plate space

It would be ideal if you take note of that Avast antivirus 2016 (form 11) won’t chip away at Microsoft Windows 95/98/ME/2000/Server, or whatever another working framework which isn’t indicated previously

These framework necessities are significant for all Avast center items (Free Antivirus, Pro Antivirus, Internet Security, and Premier)

Extra Notes

In spite of the fact that we have utilized Avast Free Antivirus 2018 screen captures in this article, these means are likewise appropriate for all Avast Antivirus arrangements (i.e. likewise for Avast Pro Antivirus, Avast Internet Security, or Avast Premier) running the most recent variant accessible.

Steps are significant for all Windows variants – Windows XP, Windows Vista, Windows 7, Windows 8, Windows 8.1 and Windows 10 (counting Anniversary Update).

#avast support number #avast #avast phone number #avast customer support #avast customer care #avast contact number #avast chat support #avast cleanup serial key

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liodensim · 7 years

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Art Update: Cheetah Markings, New Artist..!

Art News Early!

The update on this Friday is early to give me some space to prepare July News in less than 20 hours, so you can be all prepared for what's coming >:D Now, meanwhile, enjoy the content for today!

Custom Cheetah Markings have been added to the game: Cheetah Heavy: Onyx, Black, Dark Brown, Brown, Henna, Red, Gold, Cream Cheetah Soft: Onyx, Black, Dark Brown, Brown, Henna, Red, Gold, Cream Special Cheetah Markings have been added to the game: Cheetah Royal: Onyx, Black, Dark Brown, Brown, Henna, Red, Gold, Cream Cheetah Royal markings can be crafted from Cheetah Skull 30x

The applicator will let you pick any slot, any marking and any opacity.

PEWTER BASE

A new custom base can be found in Oasis and Base Applicator: Pewter - Black Dark Countershaded Common

MORE Crafting Stuff???

WELL YESSSS, enjoy even more craftable things: Applicator: Red Lace can be crafted from 30x Umganu:

Marula Branch decor can be crafted from 30x Marula Fruit:

Helinus integrifolius decor can be crafted from 30x Ubhubhubhu:

AND! In explore you will be now able to find "Reed Canary Grass" during wet seasons. It's a typical 1 use decor that can be crafted further:

Usual Decors in Shops

Grasslands background can be found in Monkey Business for 1000 SB.

Apophis, the Serpent of Chaos can be found in Enclave for 20 MT.

KATZE GAVE BIRTH!!!

HOLY CRAP! PERFECTLY ON DUE DATE KATZE GAVE BIRTH TO A HEALTHY BABY GRILL:

As a friend I am so proud of her and so happy it went so smooth and oh gosh ;0; Still she's incredibly persistent and demands to administrate even while holding newborn baby in hospital so don't expect her to disappear. FOR NOW.

NEW ARTIST

7TH has joined our art team! Many hugs to new purple paw!! Zax, our former BG artist got very busy with real life and was unable to produce content for us. Because of that, 7TH will take over that role and we hope to see lots of amazing BG's come from her tablet pen soon :D Even though she's no longer an active artist, Zax will stay on the staff list like Hlaorith - we love all our former artists and we respect the contribution of art to the game - they definitely deserve permanent credits!

Remember that June event will end on June 30th at 11:59 pm and all your currency will be stored on your account until next year. July news will be posted very soon, so you can prepare and event will launch on July 1st at 00:00 am. Shad added new tags - July! Stay hyped :D Due to amount of insane work on July event I was not able to work on mutations. Stay tuned though! Here is a handy link to check on mutation status!

Raffle Lioness

Congrats Khorshid (#8241)! You have won the last raffle lady! New lady with the Sunset over Entabeni BG is up for impressing in Special Lioness area in Explore or in NEWS section under News Post List! ;D

Polls and Dev Notes

Same poll LINK - Next lethal mutation you'd like to see? (Note: if you're googling those, remember about disturbing images) Extra note: I think Progeria might get pushed a bit after my house move due to teen stages being included :o so based on the poll, looks like Cleft Palate/Lip is winning and Progeria would be next. Keep voting!

PS. Note about Dev Boards:

Due to literally tens of thousands of suggestion threads piling up, we’ve decided to start sorting them out a little bit into something more reasonable. They’re already split into subforums, which is handy, but there are hundreds of hundreds of duplicate, outdated (due to Lioden changing), or really odd suggestions; we felt it would be reasonable to simply delete them rather than reject them all. Examples would be a 3 year old suggestion with 4 supports, a suggestion in the spirit of “folders for lionesses” (which we believe was solved by the addition of caves), or “GB found in Explore” (which is just not happening), and so on. Since we think of suggestion threads as things for the developers (us) to look at, we think it’s reasonable we get rid of things that are no longer relevant, not needed, lost in the crowd, etc. It will take time to sort them out, of course. If you feel that your old suggestion is outdated, you can flag it for deletion. So, if you notice your old suggestion disappeared, it’s mostly because it was very outdated, no longer relevant, received little attention long time ago, etc. We do appreciate that you created it for us, and we take it from there. I am focusing mainly on old content, as newer threads are being reviewed a lot during updates anyway. I think it’s time I start rejecting bigger threads with concepts that are not good for Lioden, as well. I mean I get why the community would give 900 supports to “free GB”, but that does not mean it’s good for Lioden. xD Love you all - Xy

#lioden-sim #lioden-news #lioden

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