#if theres a specific user that you see making posts you like on the subreddit go follow them! scroll thru tags of things you like and follo | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

shoezuki · 3 years

Text

This is a post on the cheating accusations around dream mostly surrounding his response video.

If you don’t want to see this or any of these posts then blacklist the tag #discourse

SO I’ve been doing a lot of digging into what dream has said in his response to Geosquare’s original video and report, which was compiled and conducted by the Minecraft Java mods on speedrun.com.

I won’t talk about that original report in detail, but basically: the mods came to the conclusion that Dream had a 1 in 7.5 trillion chance of getting the pearl bartering rates and the blaze drop odds that he did within the 6 streams he did. As in, someone would need that luck to replicate what dream got. Therefore, he cheated.

I’m going to put this into a sort of ‘point form’ in according to topic, attempting to put it in chronological order.

Dream’s Initial Tweets

Ok so first like. these are bad. these tweets are what he said (on twitter, excluding in the speedrunning discord) directly after the video was Uploaded to Geo’s channel.

worth noting he did apologize later, although i wanted to talk about these two instances so i felt the need to include it.

there’s a lot of interesting wording in the apology tweet itself too. I personally find that when he apologizes he tends to still be very subtextually angry in them with the tone, but more specifically. where he says ‘although i have reason to be upset’, that’s kinda weak and really unneeded. Alongside the ‘intense criticism’, it reads as him trying to say he’s still in the right. kind of like “im sorry i was rude even though I had reason to be rude’. Its an apology sure but he’s not saying sorry for how he really reacted; its justified to him.

Dream’s Response Video

Dream posted a response on his side channel DreamXD on the 22nd, along with the report he had a supposed astrophysicist conduct. I’m going to talk about the report separately from the video for reasons I’ll explain.

Frankly, the video doesn’t really summarize or explain the report in a meaningful way. At most, it takes some points from it but tends to twist the numbers around, misunderstand the probability and math, and also what the report itself concludes.

Essentially, dream’s video insists that the numbers found by the mods are wrong and therefore he didn’t cheat at all, yet the report concludes that the numbers found by the mods weren’t entirely accurate, however they’re still extremely unlikely. This is also all under the assumption that the report is entirely correct (ill say how its not next)

His first point is that only his 1.16 run (that was at 5th place two months ago, would have now been 16th) was deemed cheated. This is true; the mods have said that he isnt banned outright and theres no reason to question the legitimacy of his 1.15 runs.

He also concludes that Geo’s statement that Dream didn’t cooperate with them, and that he deleted 1.16 mod folders, was false. This one is a little more complicated. It could more be chalked up to a miscommunication, although it’s relevant. Geosquare posted screenshots of the specific conversation they had:

Essentially it wasn’t entirely clear, i can understand how geo and the mods interpreted it in such a way. Altho April added in a quote retweet thread that dream didn’t supply the folder she asked for, so he didn’t supply everything they asked for like he states in the video

Essentially: yeah, misleading and weird on both ends. I dont think this is really anything quantifiable, although dream talked about this in the video heavily.

Out of this though, Geo DID correct himself in the description of the mods’ video. Dream shows this in his own response, but it crops out some of what geo says. here’s from dream’s video

that Update 2 is where he corrects himself. literally why the fuck would you crop it like this and put it in the video i mean this looks so weird and genuinely doesnt provide anything. Here’s what geo actually said

Dream specifically cut it before the line where geo mentions how he said he deleted his specific 1.16 speedrun profile. This one is just so dumb to me. I’d say ‘why not include that’ but either i feel its a) so there’s no potential for people to say what he had actually said could be interpreted otherwise easily or b) doesnt want people to know he got so upset he deleted files (ego wise yknow). Again, I dont think this is definitive of anything but god. it feels scummy lmao

The Video: Incorrect Representation of His Own Report

Dream straight up doesnt present the report’s numbers properly. In fact it makes the entirety of his visuals forfeit, i.e. the gold block analogy that goes on for like 20 minutes.

The mods said his luck was 1/7.5 trillion. Dream’s report says its 1/10 million (with the addition of 5 other streams) or 1/100 million (only the 6 streams).

I’ll only consider the 1/10 mil odds, since its all dream really brings up. but Basically; there’s not much difference between 1/10 million and 1/7.5 trillion.

Dream says that the difference is 7.5 trillion minus 10 million, aka 7.4999 trillion. This is what his entire visual with the gold blocks is based on. This is absolutely incorrect, i cant stress that enough.

You can’t find the difference of fractions by subtracting only the denominators. Like. this is elementary school math. it just doesnt work.

It’d actually be calculated as: (1/10 000 000) - (1/7 500 000 000 000) = (74999/7 500 000 000 000)

If the mods are wrong, they’re only wrong by 749999/7.5 trillion. that’s literally only 0.000000099999866666667.

Dream no doubt saw the numbers, considered 10 million vs. 7.5 trillion, and used these big numbers to hold his own point. PROBABILITY DOESNT WORK LIKE THAT. I really think he was just taking advantage of the seemingly big numbers here and wrote it out in a way that favoured him. The gold block analogy in the video played throughout the entire video practically, jokes were made on it, and he made a point of it being ‘so big the game crashed’.

It’s just plain wrong. even so a difference in the odds doesnt prove shit. He’s downplaying his own odds that he found too. 1/10 million isnt a small number. Even though the legitimacy of that calculation is in question, it is still significant enough to proclaim he cheated.

Some quick points before I move onto the report; these aren’t as significant in my eyes but it adds to the picture

there’s been criticism of his joking manor throughout the entire video, very specifically the Bill Nye joke. Considering he doesnt actually have a name to provide for his astrophysicist, this joke doesnt feel right

the mod he had a voice clip from (willz) even believes that he cheated and has agreed with the mod team the whole time.

Dream never has a name for the mod who is apparently on his side (more understandable), the minecraft developer he quoted, or the astrophysicist (most damning)

Dream states that fabric is used by most speedrunners which is true, but fabric and fabric API are different; dream also had the latter installed. my knowledge of how theyre different is limited, all i really know is the API is what can enable editing of the code while fabric is more a modloader. im not entirely sure on this

Dream has said at the end of the video that all funds will go to the mod team so they can make a client that will regulate cheaters. this has been noted as feeling manipulative or like a ‘bribe’, but it definitely puts the mods in a bad position.

either they accept it and look like they ‘gave in’ to dream and therefore acknowledge him in the right

they deny it and look selfish/taking dream’s kindness for granted

geo said they would insist it goes to a charity instead

Dream constantly disregards the mods as young, inexperienced, ‘just volunteers’ etcetcetc, despite the fact that theyre analysis has been discussed by people with confirmed PhDs without much criticism

Dream’s Report

The report itself is extremely interesting, in that it’s very questionable, but even so it doesn’t come to the conclusion that dream didn’t cheat. The tone between the video and the report is drastically different.

This is from the “3. What are the goals of this document?” section:

It essentially says this isnt intended, from the very beginning, to completely exonerate dream of cheating. Also note that the author says the mods’ report was mostly correct.

This is at the end of “9 Conclussions”:

It does notably say cheating isnt the only explanation, but it doesnt actually go as far to say that it’s not possible that he cheated.

But this can be argued to not matter if we consider the validity of the report as a whole

Dream’s Report: Criticisms

Possibly the first and most known debunking of the report is by u/mfb on reddit, although there’s been much more such as this programmer criticizing the code provided at the end of the report (partially due to how the author of it stated that piglins barter 4-7 pearls, which is incorrect: it’s 4-8), Andrew Gelman, an actual statistician professor from harvard, commented on the original mods’ report as ‘impressive’ while Dream’s report is being regarded as something funny in the comments, and even analysis of dream’s behaviours and his argument by a law student

But what u/mfb posted is what i’ll focus on. Some background into the user; he’s a particle physicist, is moderator in subreddits like r/cosmology and r/astrophysics, he’s regarded as a reliable source on r/askscience and r/askreddit. Basically, multiple other people have vouched for him and before all this he had many posts in these fields.

that’s already better than the unnamed astrophysicist.

The post is better speaking for itself but here is a few exerpts from it;

Essentially, the report’s methods are debunked by u/mfb-, alongside that a moderator of r/statistics regarded the report as ‘nonsensical in its application of statistics’ and linked to u/mfb-’s comment.

i’m going to end this here. Partially because severe backpain or whatever,.

but I want to say at this point its practically definitive that dream cheated, that he lied to us, and that he continues to do so. Much more could be said on his video such as his tone, intentions, the overt emphasis on the ‘biases’ of the mods.

I havent even mentioned that the ‘astrophysicist’ themself may be a scam; they are sourced from a website that is extremely sketchy, has no names attached to it, and was created less than a year ago (with practically no traffic on it until maybe a month ago).

But i hope this is coherent. I have interest in this so if theres questions im always open.

#dreamwastaken #mcyt #discourse #this ends suddenly because chronic pain a bitch but it stands

60 notes · View notes

knxfesck · 3 years

Text

unsolicited joker thoughts: the internet has gone full circle with information sharing.

reddit is a hellsite most of the time but people there are undeniably clear about their (mostly bullshit) opinions. it fuctions by subreddit and theres direct categorization. you leave the subreddit, you leave a group of people and all of their content that gets circulated within smaller circles.

tumblr is in the middle. theres more of an open sorting function with the tags and people have strong enough opinions for black and white conversations that are still usually kept within their respective circles but often span the whole site easily. -> hellsite (affectionate) and hellsite (derogatory).

Twitter, instagram, tiktok all function heavily on algorithms. virality is a major factor in information sharing whether its a goal or not. twitter has almost no separation that isnt user generated. the ceo of chick fil a can see and respond to your posts. tiktok is algorithm based like instagram but in a less linear way. youre constantly in a social bubble of your choosing because based on what you like that content gets recycled and thrown at you. you probably wont hear about things unless you look for it or are already in the group circulating that information.

if we go back farther forums are even more categorized. the information is logged and the entire website functions based on a topic or group of topics/goals.

as far as the spread of information goes, all of them distribute content very far. that doesnt change how its recieved. on some level its like casting into the void. people are going to see it but are the right people going to see it? visibility is a constant issue especially with content considered activism or political. if we're going the twitter route it means constant moralization, tiktok and instagram usually a constant flow of debate. if we're going the forum route its either majority agreement or direct conflict.

this is all based off of personal experience but its making me consider how we share our information and for what purpose. those idiot libertarian crypto redditors literally bought, staffed and sold out a cruise ship for their ideas starting with a subreddit but it can be hard to keep track of information on different sites. sure i might just be a complacent poser leftist but its intimidating to try and participate in events through social apps when theres only a few dated, well formatted, direct posts about what the goal is floating in a soup of timeless infographics that have important facts but nothing to actually grab onto.

you really have to dig in order to get involved in change because the most accessible ways of sharing information require curating and searching down information and at the same time push an ongoing tidal wave of low interaction motivational content at you that fosters complacency and encourages you to argue with the people disagreeing with you because thats whats available.

arguing is inevitable and people will have to interact negatively because theres right and wrong. thats a fact. but debating people who disagree with you not by purposeful intent but by obligation because they've been recommended for that purpose by an algorithm .... not great.

part of me wishes that for certain specific topics we could go back to forums and experience a small community with the same functions as a social application and there are forums, they just arent used and considered outdated. the closest we can get is discord servers but those really arent the same.

its a dissapointing realization that even with the vast technology of the internet social movements and communities are becoming harder and harder to keep together.

you could go find info or look at a flyer around where you live right? you can. but you might have to drive or take a bus or struggle to find a place where people post stuff like that if you arent in a place with strong community. its just degrees of isolation.

end word vomit.

#txt #politics #current issues #twitter #tiktok

0 notes

a-breton · 5 years

Text

How to Use Quora and Reddit to Fuel Your Content Marketing Needs

Sites with user-generated content like Quora and Reddit can be gold mines for referring traffic to your website, boosting brand authority, and reaching niche audiences for your business.

But you better respect what is and is not allowed on these powerful channels for distributing your content and increasing engagement.

Neither Quora nor Reddit suffers fools and spammers lightly – these online communities have their own written and unwritten rules of etiquette and marketers attempting to game the system are quickly flagged and ostracized. Being cut off from the flow of two of the most powerful sources of online traffic can be a huge liability.

#Quora & #Reddit don’t suffer fools & spammers lightly. Follow the unwritten rules, advises @sheadrakephoto. Click To Tweet

Reddit, nicknamed “the front page of the internet,” attracts almost 60 million unique monthly visitors from the United States alone to its eclectic mix of news, weird links, and highly trafficked hubs of geekdom.

Launched in 2010, Quora has excelled in Google rankings for a wide variety of topics because the site does a fantastic job of satisfying user intent through answering questions. Building authority allowed Quora to hit 300 million monthly users in 2018 and made it a one-stop shop for advice and recommendations. Quora can be an invaluable resource not just for marketers who want to increase traffic but also for companies trying to connect to their customers and get honest feedback.

If you’re looking for the next step to boost your business or brand online, Reddit and Quora should be on your radar. Here’s what you need to know about these popular platforms to tap into their traffic potential.

HANDPICKED RELATED CONTENT: 12 Expert Ideas to Improve Your Content Marketing for Better Leads

Understand the platform

Before you delve into Quora or Reddit, assess your content marketing goals to identify which platform might better satisfy those needs. While Reddit may be a great way for potential customers to stumble across links to your product or services, Quora provides more opportunity for building brand authority within your industry. As Nicolas Straut, an SEO specialist from Fundera notes, “Reddit and Quora are both excellent channels to distribute content and increase engagement with new audiences in your niche. The only catch to both is that excessively self-promotional content can be penalized.”

Before you delve into Quora or Reddit, assess your #contentmarketing goals, says @sheadrakephoto. Click To Tweet

The Reddit community values content through upvotes and downvotes, and popular submissions make it to the front page accordingly. Because of Reddit’s enormous sprawl and frequently updated content, however, it can be difficult to attract attention. The platform is divided into topics called “subreddits,” and your success depends on finding the right one for your content marketing needs:

youtube

While Quora can be a little less confusing to navigate, it’s trickier to plug your content. Using Quora successfully may drive less volume than other channels, but the traffic tends to be higher quality with lower bounce rates. Daniel Ndukwu, CEO of KyLeads, confirms that: “I’ve been a Quora user for years, and to date I’ve gotten over 5 million views on the platform. In addition to that, we’ve used it to drive thousands of visitors to our website and get our first hundred users.”

KyLeads’ @daniel_ndukwu says his Quora responses have earned over 5 million views and drive visitors to his site. Click To Tweet

Once you’ve established a profile and gotten a feel for how to use these platforms, it’s worth lurking for a while and posting on a variety of topics to establish your credibility. It’ll take some time to cultivate your reputation as an authentic user before you can begin to tap into an audience for your content.

HANDPICKED RELATED CONTENT: Reddit for Marketing? Hell No, Except in This One Case

Find the right audience

More important than the demographics baked into Quora and Reddit is how each of these platforms can be used to find niche audiences. If you don’t customize your Reddit experience, you see only the popular posts on the front page. It can be some weird and wonderful stuff (like cats persistently trying to enter a Japanese art museum), but it’s unlikely to be the kind of content your business is looking to promote.

To find an audience interested in what you have to offer, get actively involved in the smaller subreddit communities. There’s a balance to achieve between larger subreddits, which have more activity, versus smaller, which focus on more targeted, often less popular topics that attract a higher concentration of users who would be interested in your content.

For example, if I’m a chainsaw performance artist (yes, that’s a thing), I might get mild interest from the larger subreddit community of forestry nerds, which has about 7,000 subscribers. The subreddit for chainsaw enthusiasts, which has about 1,000 subscribers, might be a better bet to generate more “buzz” for my chainsaw art.

Likewise, for subjects like content marketing, you can check out r/content_marketing. Below is an example of someone asking a question and the types of responses received. The best – and worst – thing about Reddit is the conversational format that results from questions and comments.

Notice in the right corner that the question received 88% upvotes, which shows how many more are interested in answers than just the original poster.

In this case, someone answered, and a conversation resulted.

On Quora, tackle questions directly related to your industry. Start your search with related keywords and look for recent submissions with plenty of followers. Quora loves personal stories or bulleted lists, and while you can draft a few template answers for commonly asked questions, make sure you freshen up that content often.

Marie Lamonde, a content marketer for DashThis, explains: “What you need to keep in mind while using Quora for marketing purposes is that you are there to answer people’s questions and position yourself as an expert in your field. This is not a billboard to showcase your company. Stay honest and relevant, and you should see great results.”

Quora is not a billboard to showcase your company. Stay honest and relevant, advises @LamondeMarie.‏ Click To Tweet

To see what Marie is talking about, look at this question and a couple of the answers below. One answer clearly helps the original poster learn more about SEO. The other is just selling services.

Whether or not you agree with the following answer, this person gives relevant advice and shares a possibly helpful blog post to the person asking the question.

Here are two types of answers they received.

On the other hand, this answer is really a bad ad. It doesn’t answer the original question and tells the original poster about its more affordable SEO packages. No proof, not conversation, just a copy/paste answer – that’s an ad.

Follow the rules

Like any community, Reddit and Quora have rules to guide the conduct of their users. Sometimes referred to as “reddiquette,” the Reddit code of conduct takes spammy links seriously and not only suspends accounts but bans entire domains. To avoid running afoul of these rules, carefully review Reddit’s FAQs and remember to disclose any relationship you have to the content you’re promoting.

Reddit users are notorious for sniffing out marketing strategies, so following these guidelines will help ensure that your account doesn’t get flagged for suspicious content:

Never submit the same comment to multiple subreddits.

Don’t ask for upvotes or promise reciprocity.

Do share links to content that is not your own.

Amass karma points first before you promote your own links.

A 10% ratio of posting links to your company’s content is a safe rule of thumb, especially while you’re establishing a reputation within the community. As Kyle Kroeger, founder of Millionaire Mob warns, “I actually got banned from Reddit for posting – I hired an individual to help with my marketing, and they promised to get me huge exposure on Reddit. I later found out that they overly posted on Reddit and also created a company-based Reddit username, which ended up getting my entire domain banned.”

Quora has a similar approach to keeping its community spam-free, and many of the same rules apply. The site notifies you if your content is suspicious. Repeated notifications will get you banned from the platform in short order. To avoid this, think of Quora not as a place to continually link to your content but as an opportunity to build your authority within an industry. Use your content and experience to answer questions honestly, and you can avoid being labeled as a spammer.

Think of @Quora as an opportunity to build your authority within an industry, says @sheadrakephoto. Click To Tweet

Market yourself as an industry leader

Reddit and Quora are powerful platforms for marketers, but they are first and foremost communities. Success on both sites depends on your ability to answer questions and supply the content users want. In many ways, it’s the same approach you use to improve Google rankings – it’s less about showing off your product and services and more about showing that you can satisfy user intent.

Scroll through these sites and spend some time browsing keywords on Quora or diving deep into industry-specific subreddits. Find out what users are asking and what kinds of content they look for. Reddit thrives on snarky commentary and quirky links. Quora loves advice with a sincere tone and organized actionable lists. Find questions you can really dig into and create well-formatted, thoughtful responses whose quality the community will recognize and appreciate.

Garit Boothe from Business.org points out, “Quora is a content marketer’s dream. It has B2B niches like LinkedIn. It has B2C niches like Facebook. And it’s long-form content presence works just like blogging. If your target audience is on Quora, you can get millions of views on your answers by writing engaging content and linking back to your site at the end of it.”

And if you’re wondering where to start, it’s as simple as searching for “How do I …?” as seen below:

Once you’re established as an industry expert, users will come to count on your content for knowledgeable answers. By following these strategies, you’ll discover you’ve not only made yourself a valued member of the Reddit and Quora communities but also built loyalty for your brand and possibly a bump in traffic for your site along the way.

HANDPICKED RELATED CONTENT: How to Use Social Media Monitoring as More Than a Listening Tool

Dive deep into the topic of content technologist this April in person at ContentTECH Summit in San Diego. Register today.

Cover image by Joseph Kalinowski/Content Marketing Institute

from http://bit.ly/2U1kQzv

#Online Marketing

0 notes

legit-scam-review · 5 years

Text

Proof of Keys Event May Highlight Centralization of Crypto, but Some of Its Claims Are Unfounded

Bitcoin celebrated its 10th birthday on Jan. 3, and in commemoration of this milestone, the very first Proof of Keys event was held. Organized by crypto investor and podcast host Trace Mayer, it urged cryptocurrency traders to withdraw their holdings from crypto exchanges, in order to promote the decentralization and monetary independence on which Satoshi Nakamoto‘s vision for Bitcoin was founded.

However, as ostensibly positive as its message was, it was claimed on social media in the days leading up to the event that several exchanges — most notably HitBTC — had apparently been freezing accounts and preventing users from withdrawing their funds.

These are serious charges, but while they raise questions about who really owns the coins traded via big exchanges, the issue could be more complicated than HitBTC‘s detractors would have everyone believe. For one, exchanges have a record of halting withdrawals and freezing accounts as part of their normal business, so it’s not certain that HitBTC or any other exchange was specifically opposing Proof of Keys and trying to prevent a mass reclamation of Bitcoin. And secondly, it’s worth pointing out that Proof of Keys is not a grassroots, community-led event. Rather, it’s an initiative spearheaded by entrepreneur Trace Mayer, who happens to be an investor in Armory, a crypto wallet manufacturer that obviously has a financial interest in people taking their coins out of exchanges. As such, his claims of widespread account blockages should perhaps be treated with scepticism.

Charges

The suspicion that HitBTC was blocking accounts and withdrawals because of Proof of Keys emerged on Reddit and Twitter. On the HitBTC subreddit, most of the current posts have been made by users complaining that they’ve been unable to withdraw their crypto. On Jan. 1, for instance, Reddit user pedxs wrote that HitBTC is “now not allowing withdrawing, even for [my] accounts that passed KYC,” while other users have reported similar issues, in addition to claiming that the exchange is fraudulent in general.

Unsurprisingly, these reports have led to a vociferous reaction from those organizing and supportive of the Proof of Keys event. On Jan. 2, Trace Mayer noted on Twitter that a “friend” had been told by HitBTC that “Withdrawals are temporarily disabled on your account,” leading him to suggest that “@hitbtc failed #ProofOfKeys.”

Similarly, John McAfee — who also has a financial interest in a crypto wallet (Bitfi, which he was paid to endorse) — was quick to vent his spleen against the exchange. He wrote on Twitter:

I warned everyonw more than a dozen times. Don’t sign up. Don’t use it. Withdtaw your funds. I was trashed for calling out HitBT as a corrupt cimpany. Tough shit. You had six months warning from me to withdraw your funds. Do not ask me to help you now.https://t.co/Ls9mzpUSbz

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) January 2, 2019

Complicating the issue further, Trace Mayer also reported Proof of Keys “failures” at Coinbase, Poloniex, Bitfinex, and Purse.io (an escrow service and online marketplace, rather than an exchange). However, there really isn’t much online that would confirm widespread problems (at least not on the scale of HitBTC).

For example, in the Coinbase subreddit, there is currently one post from someone bemused as to why a 72-hour quarantine on withdrawals had been imposed on them, yet there is nothing else from the period before and after Proof of Keys that would suggest something unusual or untoward. Much the same goes for the Poloniex, Bitfinex and Purse.io subreddits, although in each of these it was hard to find even a single complaint (there was one gripe about a frozen Purse.io account, but this related more to an issue with an Amazon purchase than a specific withdrawal problem).

And in fact, when it comes to the original complaint, HitBTC has itself informed Cointelegraph that there is no link between Proof of Keys day and any account suspensions. It’s spokesperson, Peter Swen, stated that frozen withdrawals were the result of internal security measures related to KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) procedures.

“These temporary, safety-related withdrawal freezings are a direct consequence of our international KYC and AML measures. These rules exist and apply to us and everybody, 24 hours a day, 365 days of the year.”

A history of withdrawal issues

It is, therefore, hard to sustain a narrative that exchanges in general were deliberately subverting Proof of Keys or unable to deal with the sheer number of withdrawals (there’s also no evidence of just how popular the event was). And while it would seem from social media that HitBTC had a comparatively high number of blocked withdrawals, it is in fact hard to prove that it deliberately set about opposing the event. Not only is this because it’s explicitly denying a link, but also because it already had a less-than-perfect reputation when it comes to withdrawals.

For example, HitBTC has a three-out-five rating on Trustpilot, with 34 percent of its ratings being one star. Many of the negative reviewers (which date from months before Proof of Keys) have complained about being unable to withdraw funds, although HitBTC’s response to this review site reveal that they strenuously deny any such problem. Equally disconcerting, there are a number of negative reviews of the exchange on crypto news and reviews sites, such as 99Bitcoins and CoinSutra, with experienced reviewers on both sites making explicit reference to difficulties in withdrawing.

In other words, HitBTC has always had reported problems with withdrawals, so it seems unlikely that the problems reported now are the result of it trying to stymie Proof of Keys day. Rather, it’s likelier that withdrawal issues have moved more into the public eye as a result of the attention surrounding Proof of Keys, leading to the impression that there has been a sudden increase in account and withdrawal suspensions. The reviews above — many of which are many months old — suggest that there hasn’t been a significant increase, even if it would be possible to say that HitBTC has indeed “failed” Proof of Keys, i.e., in the narrow sense of failing to let at least some of its users withdraw their coins.

Conflict of interest

While HitBTC’s problems need to be highlighted, some of the spotlight should also be shined on Proof of Keys day. Its organizer — Trace Mayer — is a key investor in Armory, which, as stated above, provides an open-source cryptocurrency wallet. Back in 2013, it raised $600,000 in seed funding, with this funding being “led” by Mayer, according to a statement released by Armory Technologies at the time. He has, therefore, a significant stake in seeing wallets such as Armory succeed, something that would be possibly only if crypto traders and holders shook off their dependence on such exchanges as HitBTC (and Coinbase, Poloniex and Bitfinex).

And what would be a good way of encouraging people to abandon exchanges in favor of wallets like Armory? That’s right, you guessed it: some kind of event that piggybacks on the interest in Genesis Block Day and that effectively involves urging people to take their crypto out of exchanges and put it in Armory and other wallets. Indeed, it’s this motivation that gave birth to Proof of Keys, which, as a result, now emerges as a thinly disguised marketing event masquerading as a community-driven initiative.

And it’s in this context that Mayer’s recent attempts to tar Coinbase, Poloniex and Bitfinex with the same brush as HitBTC should be framed. Without having much in the way of evidence, his recent tweets have implied that these exchanges — which, due to their popularity, are symbolic of all centralized exchanges — have consciously blocked withdrawals, with the further implication being that they oppose their customers having ownership of their coins and having sovereignty over their money. Regardless of how true this claim is, Mayer would certainly benefit if it were widely believed, given his early investment in Armory.

Centralized exchanges and market distortion

Nonetheless, the Proof of Keys event raises an important question that has often been swept under the rug by the crypto community: Are centralized exchanges really compatible with decentralized currencies that, in theory at least, are meant to be novel and radical precisely because they promise to make big financial organizations obsolete?

“Centralised exchanges are anathema to the concept of peer-to-peer trading,” says Dr. Mervyn Maistry, the CEO and co-founder of Konfidio, a Berlin-based incubator for decentralized, blockchain-based platforms. “Like most centralisation, it can make investing more convenient. However centralised control also means the possibility of centralised corruption. Custodial exchanges are anything but secure, immutable or traceable.”

Of course, up until now the rise of crypto has been almost completely dependent on exchanges, without which Bitcoin would never have risen to $19,000 at the end of 2017.

Still, it’s likely that the existence of big crypto exchanges is introducing the kinds of price and market distortions that Bitcoin and other cryptos were meant to avoid.

To cite the most obvious example, research published in June by the University of Texas found that 50 percent of Bitcoin’s 2017 price rise was a result of trade manipulations, which took place on the Bitfinex exchange and that made use of the Tether stablecoin. Given that such manipulation was also responsible for 64 percent of the rise of other major cryptocurrencies, this research offers a stark insight into how exchanges — because they have so much power over markets — can distort the price of Bitcoin and other tokens, even though these were created with the aim of avoiding distortions. Maistry adds, speaking to Cointelegraph via email:

“In the the unregulated space of crypto exchanges there is a 100 % certainty of corruption. This is exactly the same as centralised stock exchanges in the traditional world, there is a 100 percent certainty that somewhere, someone is engaging in corrupt practices.”

There have been allegations that other major exchanges have manipulated crypto markets, and while such allegations are unproven, they join with Proof of Keys day in highlighting the often opaque nature of crypto exchanges, and of the arguable need for cryptocurrency holders to become more independent in how they manage and trade their coins. With the gradual emergence of atomic swaps and decentralized exchanges, such independence is set to become increasingly possible in the future. But for now, it seems that centralized exchanges will remain popular, even with such events as Proof of Keys urging us to ditch them.

Trace Mayer has been asked for comment but has not responded as of press time.