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biceratops7 · 2 years

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Rambly thoughts about Ed and reading people:

Honestly, I think a big source of conflict for Ed is the way he both processes and presents social cues. In other words: very neurodivergently.

He canonically has a hard time understanding non literal language, to the point where it’ll cause him to be panicked or irritated. We can see this heavily in episode 5 on multiple occasions. When entering the party he mimics Frenchie (?) saying “please” despite obviously not understanding why he’s supposed to be doing it. Then when Gabriel and Antoinette start their whole “not THE Godfrey Thornrose?” shtick, he quickly gets confused by the hyperbole and exasperatedly asks if they’re deaf. Not to mention he doesn’t pick up on the party goers seeing him as basically exotic entertainment until the mockery becomes extremely blatant.

Another way this manifests is that he relies on people’s words rather than their body language or surrounding context clues. A big reason he’s so annoyed in episode 7 is because he thinks they’re being eaten alive by bugs to actually look for treasure, using a method that is both embarrassing and ineffective. The fact that Stede just wants to spend time with him and have a souvenir to remember it by goes completely over his head. Once Lucius bluntly tells him the trip isn’t literally about monetary gain, he gets into it.

Then in episode 8 we see how Calico Jack takes advantage of this. Ed actually thinks Stede and Jack are similar. He can’t easily tell the difference between Stede’s genuine kindness and care for him vs. the phony crap Jack pulls. Which by the way is a HUGE red flag considering they had intimate relations in the past.

Not only does Ed have trouble with reading social cues, he’s also extremely and truthfully expressive… a very bad combo for an environment where trickery and manipulation are common place. It essentially means that he has to work really hard to tell what everyone’s true intentions are while they can read him like a children’s book. With enough well placed interaction they know exactly what makes him tick, good or bad. I also have like, no ability to successfully hide my facial expressions and it’s a scary place to be in. There’s a reason I still wear a mask in places where there’s no mandate. It affords me emotional privacy without having to painstakingly be aware of myself at all times.

And the thing is, he knows these things about himself. Here you see him practicing facial expressions in a mirror before he meets someone new.

He knows that it leaves him susceptible to manipulation and normally uses hyper vigilance and isolation (minimizing the chances people get to actually talk with him) to compensate as best he can. “The old Blackbeard would’ve seen me coming a mile away.” He’s finally in a place where he’s safe enough to drop the incredibly exhausting task of making sure no one’s gonna exploit his disadvantage, and unfortunately that will sometimes have consequences.

In a similar vain, Ed’s beard did the same job as my Covid masks. When it’s gone during such an emotionally turbulent time you really feel how difficult it is for him to cover up the heart stuck to his sleeve without that aid. There’s a solid few seconds in the blanket fort with Lucius where he’s trying to hide that he’s about to cry and discreetly collect himself but gives up when he realizes the bottom half of his face already gave him away. Like I said, it’s an annoyingly meticulous process and there’s lots of room for error.

Ok now buckle your seatbelts cause I’m about to make you very upset /lh.

All of that is why Ed probably looks back at this moment now and sees yet another incident where he let his guard down and was tricked.

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junikshanasar · 3 years

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Yona’s Cult of Personality

idk dude, I have world history and it’s remarkably helpful in understanding our society and politics, and also amazing in understanding world-building. Like, does anyone read Spy x Family? More people should read Spy x Family, it’s absolute gold, but anyway the conflict between the fake countries that serves as background to the story is so obviously based on WW2 and the Cold War. I actually got super excited, and it made the manga 10x more fun.

But this post is not about Spy x Family, it is about Akatsuki no Yona (Yona of the Dawn). BEWARE OF SPOILERS AHEAD.

I know it’s like, one of the ‘big shoujo’, that a lot of people like, but I tend to procrastinate on reading more famous and mainstream manga for... absolutely no reason actually. But whatever, procrastination doesn’t need a reason.

Anyway I kept seeing it recommended everywhere, even my mom really liked it (we used to read manga in the library during my brother’s hockey practice - before covid ofc). So I finally read Yona of the Dawn two months ago, and absolutely loved it.

I feel like I say that for a lot of manga, but my tastes are all over the place, so. (it’s what happens when you’ve read manga from practically every genre)

Anyway I loved it, loved the characters, loved Yona. I tried so hard to make Yoon and/or Kija my favourite, but they came second to Soo Won no matter how much I liked them. Like rip, the guy everyone hates is my favourite. But it’s whatever, he’s a very good character, and my heart aches whenever I think of what he, Hak, and Yona could’ve been. I adore this author’s story-telling (so freaking funny), and I was pleasantly surprised to find they were the same author of some short works I enjoyed reading awhile back, so I’m glad I finally tried this series.

Right so while I was reading Yona, we were talking about the famous/infamous (depends on where you’re from) former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, and like, bro.

This guy’s whole rise to power story sounds straight outta a novel. Or manga.

For real though, like he has comrades that help him, a bunch of which die in dramatic ways. Like, this one guy, Abel Santamaria, was a leader along with Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro, for the Moncada Barracks Attack that basically jumpstarted Castro’s revolution. They all got arrested by the government afterwards, and like Santamaria was tortured and killed. Apparently his hands were sent on a tray to his sister? She was also a member of the revolution, but like the tragedy of her bro’s death and the death of her boyfriend led her to commit suicide.

But yeah, after being released and chilling in Mexico for a bit to stay on the down low, Castro comes back with Che Guevara and begins the fight against current government run by Fulgencio Batista, who everyone lowkey hated cause he was corrupt and mean.

So Castro starts from gaining the support of the people. He promises change and like actually does stuff to prove it, like asking for shelter and food from the peasants, and then paying them back through labour. He and his men treated them respectfully, and kindly, even going as far as to teach people how to read and stuff. His revolution was known as the 26th of July Movement, named after the day of the Moncada Barracks Attack that was the spark for all this, but they had a super funny nickname, Los Barbudos, which basically means ‘the Bearded Ones’, to describe what most of them revolutionaries looked like lol.

They were infinitely popular amongst the poor as a result, and through garnering public support and fighting against Batista’s army with guerilla tactics, the revolution overthrew the government and Castro eventually rose as leader of Cuba.

You’re probably wondering why I gave you a super brief history lesson (I omitted a lot of stuff), but consider this:

Who else comes back to their nation with a bunch of new allies, after staying on the down low? Who else aids the poor people in their country and treats them with kindness and respect, spreading their popularity throughout the public? Who else has a super funny nickname for their group?

Yona does. Guys, I was painfully reminded of the Dark Dragon and the Happy Hungry Bunch while doing the reading on Castro’s rise to power. There are so many parallels it felt like an epiphany. Yona is Fidel Castro.

Jokes aside, I felt like I finally understood the politics going on in the manga, and what exactly adviser Kye-Sook was so scared of when he found out about Yona’s spreading reputation. I thought it was a little weird, especially since in the eyes of the people, Soo Won was a much better king than Emperor Il (Yona’s dad). He was afraid of Yona’s innocent creation of a cult.

The term ‘cult of personality’ usually refers to when people adore a figure almost religiously, which is why most dictators you read about in history, like Castro, ensure they build up appeal within the public so they can rise to power (once they’re finally in charge, efforts to maintain this ‘cult’ often dip into something more fear-based). For Castro, he promoted himself as the ‘saviour’, who would save and protect the Cuban people from Batista, and then later from the USA. Of course there’s more as to the why and how and what, that I’m itching to type up, but it’s not relevant to this post.

If you recall, in the manga, the story of the ‘red dragon’ is one that is a legend of their land, and the ‘red dragon king’ is someone who was and is revered (especially in the Fire Tribe). Yona becomes associated with this legend, which only makes sense as she is his reincarnation and has collected the four dragon vassals from the legend. Due to this, she becomes immensely popular amongst the people in addition to her reputation of helping the poor, particularly in the Fire Tribe, and solving issues around the nation such as the human trafficking in the Earth Tribe town, Awa, and the drug issues in the Water Tribe’s town, Nadai.

She becomes someone who actually does something for the people, similar to Castro. So all in all, Yona builds a name for herself, and somewhat unintentionally creates a cult of personality wherein the people adore her. I thought this was a super fun comparison that shows how exactly Yona’s rise to power is happening. Personally I think she’ll be an amazing Queen when the time comes (I hope it does), especially after witnessing all her character growth. As much as I like Soo Won and believe he is a remarkable King, he lacks that empathy he’s locked away, something Yona has that allows her to help the people that much quicker and more effectively, as well as come to more peaceful and efficient conclusions (i.e. the resolution of tensions with Xing Kingdom).

Anyway, I can’t believe I only recently figured out that the best world-building works off lessons and events from history (like, it’s pretty much common sense, huh?).

But, now that I know, history class is a little more exciting! ~\(≧▽≦)/~

#yona of the dawn #yona #akatsuki no yona #happy hungry bunch #personality cult #history #fidel castro #cuba #worldbuilding #politics #yona is castro #castro's rise to power #is just like #yona's rise to power #castro is an anime character confirmed #spoilers #spoilers for the manga #go read spy x family

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catbountry · 3 years

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Glancing over some of my older essays on politics, I’m kind of struck how, despite them not being written that long ago, I feel like I come across as a dumbass, or at least like somebody who thinks they’re much smarter than they actually are. And it’s weird, because most of my views are roughly the same; rather, it’s that I feel the way that they’re articulated comes across as too... I don’t know, smarmy? Smug, maybe? Lacking nuance. Blunt. Like I’m talking down to people. Obviously, this was never my intention, but it’s weird how something that was written while in my early 30′s somehow makes me wince a little... as I rapidly approach being smack-dab in the middle of my 30′s. God, I’ve been in my 30′s for almost 5 whole years now, fuck, where does the time go?

I think being able to come out of the other side of the Trump presidency in one piece has kind of helped add some much-needed perspective, at least for myself. I think the hypothesis that a lot of people who voted for Trump were desperate for some kind of change was proven correct when he failed to be re-elected due to his bungling of COVID, which, funnily (or not) enough, he almost could have looked like he was doing the right thing when he initially wanted to close the U.S. borders... except he’d been trying to restrict travel and close borders so often that of course nobody took such a suggestion seriously. And even if they had? Rich people still would have brought it over, because as we all know, rich people can just get away with all kinds of shit. Of course, once it actually hit, Trump really couldn’t handle the idea of looking weak at all, so instead, it was downplayed, joked about, not taken seriously, even though he’d been briefed that it was going to be really, really bad. And when he got it, and in private thought he was going to die? Well, once he beat it, of course he had to say it wasn’t so bad... even though it killed almost a thousand times more people than the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Most of them were seniors. I think that, as well as a general fatigue and disappointment over the lack of swamp-draining from those who weren’t fanatical devotees, probably sealed his fate. I admit, I wasn’t very sure Biden really had much of a chance for a long time... until COVID happened. But hey, at least we got our stimmy from Trump, right lads?

I’m still fully convinced that Trump never intended to win, and that his run was done purely for ego and financial gain, but his ability to effortlessly bait the media, as well as his unexpected exposing of the sham we all knew presidential elections to be, wound up rocketing him to success. Trump will no doubt go down as one of the most successful conmen in American history, one so slick he wound up conning his way all the way into the White House. The whole thing was like if The Producers was a presidential campaign, fascism included. Granted, I don’t think Trump was ever a true fascist; I think he wanted to be a dictator, but the actual job of being President was a drag. The cult of personality he accrued, however, was the biggest source of narcissistic supply that he’d ever experienced in his entire life. Hell, just being the literal President, the most important person in the entire fucking world, is a hell of a high that I don’t think he’ll ever really be able to reclaim. Trump’s going to be chasing that dragon for the rest of his life. Having “President” in front of your name is a lot nicer than actually, you know, having to be the President. I mean, look at how quickly Obama went gray. A lot of people are convinced Trump will run again in 2024, and I don’t doubt it, but unless something happens that completely throws us for a loop, I don’t see him being able to recreate the, er, “magic” of 2016. Everyone getting to see that, not only was his fanbase capable of having embarrassing public meltdowns just like the le epic triggered snowflake lib Hilary supporters, but that their meltdowns were even more embarrassing, and that they all looked like a bunch of fucking English soccer hooligans during the Capitol siege... well, I think that’s going to put off the swing voters, as well as the moderate Republicans.

Also, that Twitter knock-off founded by Trump’s aide, Gettr, being flooded by gay furries posting Sonic the Hedgehog foot porn? Feels like classic 4chan-style raiding. I approve. It almost feels like we’re healing, even if it’s just a little bit.

But what the fuck did we even learn from all this? What did I learn from this?

I don’t know. It feels like over the time I’ve been on Tumblr, what was once SJW became woke, and being woke has become very normal; so normal, in fact, that fucking massive corporations that use slave labor overseas will change their Twitter icons to rainbow every June because The Gays have become a safe, marketable demographic. On one hand, it’s nice to know that, at least in what I guess is considered the western world, LGBT people are more accepted now than they ever have been. On the other... god, it feels so cynical, doesn’t it? This is all very stream of consciousness, here. I don’t write very much on here since, surprise surprise, Tumblr’s been kind of dead since the porn ban. I still see people post, but it used to be that I couldn’t refresh my dash without seeing dozens of new posts. Now it feels like I refresh my dash and I’d be lucky to see a new post there an hour later. This is why I’m on Discord more. It feels like I have more productive conversations than I ever could on Tumblr or Twitter. Twitter is just... god. It’s like all the worst parts of Tumblr without the parts that made it fun aside from a few memes.

Sorry, I got off track there. The point I was going to make before is that, while I am still very firmly anti-censorship, I’ve managed to put myself in a position where it no longer feels like the stakes are so high. I can relax. I don’t have to feel like I’m on the defense the whole time as somebody grills me over some slip-up. I don’t use Twitter that much. When I do post something in response to somebody, I feel like I instantly regret it. I posted in response to some dumbass spreading a rumor that 4chan’s favorite Simpson’s meme about Sneed’s Feed and Seed is secretly ableist, and I got a response from some dude with an Umaru-chan avatar telling me how he’s proudly racist because he and his friends call each other slurs? Like bro, you’re posting cringe, you’re going to lose subscriber-

I don’t know what I’ve learned yet. Maybe that social media sucks and that chatrooms with friends are the superior way to communicate online. I tried out Telnet recently to go into some random IRC, that was neat. It just feels nice to not have to get into a fucking argument every fucking day over shit that doesn’t matter as much as people thinks it does, to not have to hear about every fucking time the President sneezes or farts. It’s not that there’s no longer anything to worry about; there is. I’d really like to see fellow lefties go after the handful of massive corporations that control the majority of the online experience, who censor not just all the racist white dude grifters in suits who all look suspiciously similar to one another, but us as well. I want to see us raise a bigger stink about the web being santized, sterlized, and gentrified to be friendlier to corporations who only want your precious data and eyeballs. Maybe without the constant distraction of Bad Orange Man, we could make that happen. Maybe.

Or maybe fucking Dream will breathe again and all the fucking children will piss their pants and clog up Twitter, fuck these kids, get off my internet, GET OUT GET OUT GET OUT REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

#not fan fiction #political bullshit

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theideasoundingboard · 3 years

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On Lebanon reaching an all time low and a pinch of hope

Or how on earth has Lebanon managed to fall short of the podium on the Misery Index.

Yes dear readers, there is a misery index which classifies countries based on a misery score. Without getting into the details of how the score is computed, top of the list is the most miserable country in the world. Lebanon made it to number 4 in 2020, out of 156 nations covered by the index. Only Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Sudan are faring better as numbers 1, 2 and 3. It must sound surreal to most Lebanese people who are still trying to fathom what hit them: The first default on Lebanese sovereign debt in history, the mass destruction and losses stemming from the sixth largest artificial non-nuclear explosion in history, the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Syrian conflict and its ramifications taking their toll on the country, all on top of the structural weaknesses of the Lebanese economy and political system. It takes less than that to bring a country to its knees. From all the causes above, there is one which could explain at least two others: the structural weaknesses of the Lebanese economy and political system. The solution on paper seems straightforward. And very unattainable, like only a straightforward solution can be: a new political system and social contract to restore confidence in the Lebanese economy and currency, which would encourage foreign investment, unblock international aid and allow some leverage in the debt restructuring negotiations with creditors. Although this statement is true in essence, it does not sound like a plan. It sounds more like a slogan. A Manifest at best. I mean, where would you even start... We could spend countless hours debating on the abysmal trade deficit, the record debt to GDP ratio and the huge toll that debt servicing is taking on the country revenue, the artificial peg of the Lebanese Pound to the US Dollar and the opaque policies of the central bank, or the decline of the remittance share in the GDP as Lebanese expatriates are struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic and other crisis. We could also debate on the political system in Lebanon which consists roughly of two sides, each backed by different international players with conflicting interests and how this will not change in the near future, or the far one for that matters, because the people who can make it change are too busy surviving to vote a majority of the 128 MPs out of parliament. Hope as far as I am concerned, lies in some of the economic forces at large and with the Lebanese diaspora. The latter is obvious. Lebanese living abroad have always sent remittance back to Lebanon, either to invest in real estate, benefit from artificially attractive interest rates on deposits or to support their families, and they will keep sending remittance. Not for the same reasons perhaps but it will still amount to something. Economic forces at large are successful companies with ties to Lebanon or which could have a presence in the country, and which make most of their revenue abroad and hence are less sensitive, if at all, to the Lebanese economic situation. If such companies operated part of their processes from Lebanon, they would provide great benefits to the local economy by creating jobs and value and still benefit from an offshore legal status provided by law, which offers tremendous flexibility from a legal standpoint and many tax incentives. They would also benefit from a less expensive and highly skilled workforce. They will obviously have to put up with the unstable political situation, the run-down economy and the challenges which come with them but I still believe a business case can be made, especially if the company has ties to Lebanon: a Lebanese founder or shareholder, a historic presence in the country, etc. Some examples I can think of: A software editor which operates its quality department from Lebanon, with minimal requirements to run production: A bit of electricity and an internet link. Servers can be hosted anywhere in the world, revenue is made abroad for the most part and there are no stocks to worry about. IT consultancies which operate on IT projects in the Gulf region, Turkey, Greece,

etc. and which can base their client support activities in Lebanon. Similar business case, all they needs is electricity, internet connections and brains. Companies in any field externalizing their call centers to Lebanon. They need people who speak foreign languages and Lebanon is in no shortage of them. So far. All the examples above are real and are still operating in Lebanon. The software editor has been assessing the quality of its software in Lebanon for 20 years and has since put in place a consultancy department in the country serving the region and moved part of its production chain there. It still makes the bulk of its revenue abroad but caters for around 600 Lebanese families. The IT consultancies have been around for about 10 years now and still make the bulk of their revenues abroad. The externalized call center was set up in January 2021 and this last example brings a lot of hope to me: companies with no specific ties to Lebanon still choose to invest in the country and sees value in it and its workforce even after its economy has fell apart. In conclusion, the idea here is to call out on men and women (and companies) of good will who can still see value in Lebanon, who can identify win-win business cases in operating part of their cost centers from Lebanon and who are willing to take a chance on this country, knowing they have a cheat code to enhance their chances of success in the game: they are part of the solution. Let the board sound Rabih

PS: You can read this post and many others at https://theideasoundingboard.blogspot.com/

#lebanon #economy

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mars-the-4th-planet · 3 years

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Final election prediction map:

Explanation time. Going from left to right.

Nevada: this state is known for overestimating republican support in the polls. Even republican-biased pollsters like Trafalgar(R) think Biden is going to win here. Regular polls tend to give Biden about a six point lead. So I think 4-8% is the most likely margin for this state.

Arizona: A very close state. It voted for Trump last time by a margin of three percent, and Biden generally leads in the polls here from 2% or 4% depending on which polling group most recently posted. Discounting obviously biased polls like Trafalgar, CNN, and Rasmussen, it is most likely that Biden will narrowly win Arizona. FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics agree on this and so do I.

Alaska and Montana: States that would normally be more decisively red but aren't this time around. Still, trump is leading in these two by enough that it won't matter. Just something to keep in mind, that Biden has moved republican states more towards the democrats.

Colorado: Used to be a swing state, but now is about at the same level of closeness as in Montana. RealClearPolitics says Biden is leading by ten percent, FiveThirtyEight says by fourteen percent, predicting that they will vote within a 7-11% range is a modest estimate not Democrat bias. Not only that but like Nevada and Texas, it voted more blue than expected in 2016.

New Mexico: Republicans have been trying to get this state but it's just not happening. They have a 15% poll lead for Biden on my most recent map. Even if the polls are off some, in Trump's favor, Biden still wins by double digits.

Nebraska: Both the main state and the first district are going to Trump, no real question there. But the second district has held some polls and they all lean towards Joe Biden winning. It's just one extra electoral vote though.

Texas: A state that has been all over the place lately with large amounts of early voting (which favors dems) and a court that denied throwing out a hundred thousand ballots. It's not out of reach that democrats could win Texas, but if I'm being wholly honest with myself, what I want to happen is not necessarily what will happen. The polls do lean in Trump's favor. And Republican support is still large in Texas. Worst of all, there is only one early voting drop off box per county in Texas. I think it's going to the reds this time around, although at a narrower margin than 2016.

Minnesota: This one I can't be too sure about to be honest. On one hand, the police brutality there and protests (mainly the government's response to the protests) will likely mean more dem turnout. But at the same time, people protesting racism and the authoritarian gov? Also means more Republican turnout for Trump. But Republicans already turn out to vote regularly, so it's not so much that they can expand from here and more than they can try and use the protests as a means to convince people to not vote got Biden. Still, Biden's campaign has generally brought in more support to the democrats than Hillary's across the nation and Minnesota went to her last time. And 4-8% does match up pretty well with polling data which ranges around a 6% to 7% lead for Biden.

Iowa: Sometimes leans Biden, other times it leans Trump, but in general it's a pretty close state. But Trump had a 9% margin of victory in 2016 and I think that is going to be very hard to overcome. Of course Biden has moved the country towards the democrats, but probably not by the ten percent margin it would take to win Iowa. It just has a lot of conservative support, and unless something is drastically off in my analysis, Trump is going to win Iowa by a few percentage points.

Missouri: Like a couple other states already mentioned, it's strange that it isn't automatically safe. RealClearPolitics even considered Missouri a toss up state at one point. Based on the polling data involving this state and how it's voted previously, I think it's going to Republicans by a margin of 6-10%.

Wisconsin: Oh boy. The one state who's polling data was well outside the margin of error in 2016. It was seven percent off. And current polls for the state range from a slight one or two point win for trump to a seventeen point landslide for Biden. It's a bit absurd how hard this state is to predict. But, I think it is landing on the Biden side of the aisle and will vote Democrat by about the same amount as Iowa votes Republican. Biden is more liked there than Hillary Clinton, and that is true for the whole Midwest. Not only that but most Midwestern states including Wisconsin voted more democratic in the 2018 midterms. Less biased polls put Biden at a six percent lead in Wisconsin. Which is roughly the same as Clinton's state. In most states Biden is doing better than Clinton was, but I suppose some really biased towards dems polls came out for Clinton in Wisconsin right before the election as it's the only logical explanation. Several polls also have shown Biden winning in double digits in Wisconsin, hopefully these are the ones that are exaggerating democratic support and not the more average polls. Assuming the more biased polls are the ones that could be seven points off in Republicans favor, Biden wins by a few percent.

Michigan: Without Trafalgar(R) and Rasmussen, Michigan looks as decisive for Biden as South Carolina is for Trump. It's polling average on RCP had Biden nine points up. In a state that just barely went to Trump in 2016. Michigan is almost certainly going to Biden if everyone who prefers Biden actually turns out to vote for him. Many polls show Biden up in double digits there. Trump has personally hurt his reputation in Michigan. Largely due to personally refusing them covid aid while the state run by democrats was handling the pandemic better than any other state according to a covid response study. Which is bound to increase their approval of democrats and decrease it of Trump. His supporters even tried to kidnap the governor to do god knows what to her, and Biden won Michigan in the primaries over Sanders, who beat Clinton there in the 2016 primaries. It's very likely that Biden will see a win in Michigan, and by fairly strong margins assuming all the votes get counted in time. Whether you look at the polls, how they voted in the midterms, the margin at which Trump won in 2016, other factors that could effect the vote, Biden is set to win the state of Michigan. A voting margin of 4-8% is a rather modest prediction all things considered. Even some conservative biased polls have shown Biden winning by a percent or two. Polling groups like Trafalgar(R) voted about two points to the right of the final results in the rust belt states.

Indiana: Not a whole lot to say here. Much like Missouri and Montana, it's closer than it should be and that's a bad sign for Republicans in neighboring swing states.

Ohio: This state has voted 8 points in favor of the Republicans in 2016, and the polls have gone back and forth between the candidates recently. But they are very close. I think Trump will take the state by at least one point though. And no more than five. Going to be as close as Iowa at least, maybe a little closer, but Biden will be hard pressed to flip the state completely.

Virginia: Polling shows Biden possibly leading in double digits and Clinton won fairly decisively here. Even the most narrow recent Virginia polls show Biden eight points ahead. It's barely competitive, luckily for Biden.

North Carolina: Like Arizona, this state is a hard call because of how close it is. I wouldnt be surprised if either won. But Biden does have the overall edge and is more likely to take the state by a close margin.

South Carolina: Usually a solid red state. But this time around, it got fairly close in the polls. Closer than some traditional blue leaning swing states. Still almost definitely going to Trump, but, it did vote in a new Democrat in 2018 and if this momentum keeps up who knows, South Carolina could end up more like Iowa. A red leaning swing state. Probably not tomorrow though. It's going to have a pretty solid margin of victory for Trump.

Georgia: Very similar story as Texas but a little more towards dems. Biden does narrowly lead in the polls, but republican support in this state is historically usually strong and racial voter surpression could unfortunately have an effect by a percent or two. It's certainly possible for Democrats to win here, but it's probably not going to happen this election. Trump will likely have a pretty close lead of two to six percent. Like Texas, it's sort of a "What if dems get a landslide" scenario. It would certainly be closer if there wasn't so much concern about voter surpression and gerrymandered voting districts. I would say Biden has about as much chance of winning in Georgia as Trump does of winning Pennsylvania.

Florida: It is very close in every election. The best and least biased polls put it at a Biden win though. A narrow one, but with strong turnout it's more likely dems take this state. If GOP does take Florida it will be by a hair margin. Less than one percent. But I think it will land on Biden's side of the aisle due to factors such as the Coronavirus mainly effecting the elderly the worst and Florida being an older state, Florida voting more blue in 2018 like several other states, and the only polls showing Trump winning there are the ones with biased weights and faulty methods of polling. Biden is also a favorite in Florida, as they elected him decisively during the primary. And he was on the twice winning Obama/Biden ticket.

Pennsylvania: Like Wisconsin, I estimated a 2-6% margin of victory and this state has been fairly consistently showing a five point lead for Biden in the FiveThirtyEight model. It has overall moved to the left since 2016 and the administration there has been fighting Trump's attempts of rigging its vote count. I think this state is going to Biden, RealClearPolitics thinks this state is going to Biden, FiveThirtyEight thinks this state is going to Biden, but it all relies on Pennsylvanians actually going out and making those poll averages come true. But unlike last time, they actually know Trump can win and won't just assume it's over simply because of the polls. Even Rasmussen, a conservative biased polling group republicans love to tout, shows Biden winning by three percent. It's going to be pretty close though, so it comes down to the turnout.

New Hampshire: You're probably tired of having me say things are going to be close. Well, New Hampshire was close last time but I don't think it will be this time. The polls for this state are quite decisive (11% lead for Biden on average!) and Clinton did win last time in this state although narrowly. Estimating it to be a 5-9% margin of victory for Biden is not unreasonable, even though Biden didn't do well in the New Hampshire primary, he is bound to win this small swing state by a similar margin as Trump will win South Carolina, which is not known to be a swing state.

Maine: Biden is bound to get at least 3/4 of the electoral votes here, but I think it's likely that his campaign has won back enough support here that he can get all four. A recent poll by an A+ rated pollster puts him three points ahead in the remaining district. But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump picks up one district. One electoral point likely won't matter to the overall election though.

National:

Biden has been consistently leading over trump since before the primary voting started. His national lead on trump is the main factor why he won the primary in the first place. Biden will get the popular vote, as the popular vote was barely off in the 2016 polls and this time around Biden consistently has at least double, sometimes TRIPLE, the poll lead Clinton had by the day before the election. The lowest I've seen it was four points ahead of Trump. The highest was ten points ahead. He will most likely get around a seven point lead in the popular vote, which indirectly increases his likelihood of winning the electoral college as well. Even though winning one does not necessarily mean winning the other, it is VERY unlikely that someone could get a seven percent popular vote lead and not win the election. Remember, Clinton had less than a three percent popular vote lead and trump only won key states she was expected to win by a sliver.

Third parties probably won't make a whole lot of difference. In 2016, it was a big year for them although it may not look like it. Lots of people assumed Clinton would win, and it made it easy to justify using one's vote on a third party candidate. Nowadays people can see how close it will be and how it is anyone's game, and some will choose to vote either Trump or Biden instead of their preferred candidate like in 2016. Third party polling is not looking good. And it always tightens up on election day. If any do split the vote enough, it's probably not something that said party not running would help anyway. If you're voting green party still, you're probably not willing to vote for Biden even IF the greens didn't run in your state. And if you're voting Libertarian, you're probably not going to vote for Trump even IF Libertarians didn't run in your state.

In conclusion, I think Biden will win both in terms of having the most actual votes, and in terms of having the most electoral votes which are the real deciding factor. But the election could still be contested by the Supreme Court if it's close enough which it likely could be. And the vote count could be stopped prematurely to erase tens of thousands of dem-majority mail-in ballots.

What constitutes a correct prediction?

I will consider it correct if all of these are true:

1: Biden wins overall

2: I get at least 95% of the state colors correct

3: I get at least 90% of the state margins correct

4: I'm right about Biden's popular vote lead within a margin of a percent in one direction or another.

This prediction also assumes that all of the legitimate votes cast are counted. We may not see the end result until a couple of days after election day. If the election is halted with tens of thousands of mail-in votes unaccounted for, I will consider it inconclusive.

#long post #If im right #its going to be one of the best days of my life #If im wrong #oops lol

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alexsmitposts · 4 years

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Beirut – Accident or “New” Bomb Blast? Global News on 10 August 2020 reports – “Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced on Monday his formal resignation, and that of his government following protests and demands for change after the deadly explosion in Port of Beirut last week, saying his government will follow the will of the people for real change and transparency. Diab, in a televised speech, said the detonation of highly-explosive material warehoused in the port area of the capital for the last seven years was “the result of endemic corruption”. Diab said, “Today we follow the will of the people in their demand to hold accountable those responsible for the disaster that has been in hiding for seven years, and their desire for real change. In the face of this reality … I am announcing today the resignation of this government.” The cabinet had already been under pressure to step down over the August 4 explosion that killed 163 people, wounded some 6,000 and left around 300,000 without habitable housing. What the PM doesn’t talk about are the special characteristics of the blast – an explosion that produced an unusual mushroom-like cloud, a detonation causing a shock wave that registered 3.9 on the Richter scale, that shattered windows in a radius of more than 10 km, leaving construction – buildings for industry and housing – in shambles with pictures resembling those of Hiroshima after the US nuclear attack in 1945. Instead the now ex-PM intimated that it was an accident, “the result of endemic corruption”. – How? – How does endemic corruption cause such a well-targeted blast? – If so, it would mean that there was a flow of a huge amount of money between the corrupter and the corruptee. True. This cannot be excluded. But who could be interested? Giant real estate speculators, like banks and other financial institutions / financiers that might want to buy the devastated prime area – seaport, airport and surroundings – for pennies on the dollar and newly develop the destroyed site for business and luxury housing – it’s called privatization of disaster. Something similar happened in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005. All is possible of course especially in our no holds barred free-for-all neoliberal world, and especially as France’s President Macron, a Rothschild lieutenant, came to visit the devastated area shortly after the Beirut blast. Who knows – the purpose of his offer of “aid” – aid almost always comes with strings attached – may have been preparing the terrain, so to speak, for French financial oligarchs to buy-up the harbor and the surrounding areas, for – well, as usual – pennies on the dollar. *** But there are also other reasons for the “explosion” of Beirut port. Mind you, they are not at all mutually exclusive. Lebanon’s government blamed a large quantity of poorly stored ammonium nitrate for the blast that devastated the northern quarter of Beirut, killing about 250 people, injuring thousand and destroying the shelter for some 300,000 people. Ammonium nitrate is an industrial chemical commonly used around the world as an agricultural fertilizer, and in explosives for mining. These poorly managed chemicals in the warehouse existed already for at least 6 years. – Is it a sheer coincidence that it went up in flames almost to the day of the 75th Hiroshima anniversary, leaving Hiroshima-like devastation behind? Next to the warehouse that allegedly harbored these highly volatile chemicals, was apparently also an ammunition-depot of Hezbollah’s. Could it have been the target of a deadly enemy? – On September 27, 2018, Benjamin Netanyahu pointed out to the United Nations General Assembly forum the warehouse, the very warehouse that eventually exploded on 4 August 2020, the Hezbollah arms depot. Full video of Netanyahu showing Hezbollah’s arms depot, as if he were predicting what was to become the blast site at Beirut port on 4 August 2020. This is a possibility. But what about the strange explosion? – According to several journalists and observers, including Thierry Meyssan, this is a “new” bomb. It had been tested already in Syria in mostly deserted areas, since January 2020. But nobody spoke about it. Because analyzing it, might cause grave consternation in the public. That is one explanation. But far more likely, because the masters behind this “new” bomb strictly forbid (under threats) making it public. On August 7, 2020, Thierry Meyssan reports, “It is not known what weapon was used. However, it has already been tested in Syria since January 2020. It is a missile with a tactical nuclear component in its warhead that causes a smoke mushroom characteristic of nuclear weapons. It is obviously not an atomic bomb in the strategic sense. The weapon was tested in Syria on a plain in the countryside and then in the Persian Gulf on the water against Iranian military vessels. This is the first time it has been used in an urban environment, in a particular environment that made the air blast and vibrations reflect off the water and the mountains.” See video showing the striking similarity between the blasts in Syria and the blast in Beirut. Was this another test with purpose, like those in Syria? Applied to an archenemy, Hezbollah? – And at the same time destroying Beirut and plunging Lebanon into further turmoil, making it even more vulnerable for a take-over? One is reminded of Wesley Clark’s interview of March 2, 2007 with Democracy Now’s Amy Goodman, where the US General and former Europe Head of NATO, listed Lebanon among the seven countries that had to be “taken out’. See video (taking out seven countries, about from min 2:30). Is the Beirut blast one more test for things to come, after the covid “lockstep scenario”? The permanent ever stronger repression of western governments to keep people separated by social distancing and controlled by so-called “contact tracers” – waiting for a vaccine which they hope will allow the masters inserting a nano-chip in any form or shape, that would integrate with the body and permit permanent surveillance of movement and everything from health records to bank accounts. Is the Beirut blast just a cog in the wheel to a more important objective; One or New World Order? Mind you, we are already there. The “Lockstep Scenario” is just the fine-tuning mechanism. Expect mass protests – they have started already in Germany, notably in Berlin on August 1, 2020, with 1.3 million people taking to the streets, protesting against the German Government’s ever more repressive corona measures and restrictions. Numbers and size of such protests may increase over time as the governments do not seem to relent, as if they were following a regime of “higher orders”. Is it conceivable that the “new’ weapon may be applied to western cities of strong social upheaval, and then spread to enemy cities in Russia and China? Large cities with millions of people could easily be destroyed with the “new” weapon, with the click on a remote bottom – like a video game, and with none of the perpetrators of such horror destruction hurt. The people on the ground are powerlessly exposed to sudden and slow death. Wasn’t that the case for Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945? And let’s not forget – the US shortly after WWII planned to nuclear-bomb 66 Soviet cities, mind you, this was when the US and the USSR were still allies – see “Wipe the Soviet Union off the Map” – . The tactics of such plans are still intact – and shelved, could be revived at any moment. Of course, modernized and with today’s technologies. Beirut is a sad-sad attack – with a story that is not as simple as the official version would like you to believe. Be aware!

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enitankdii · 3 years

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10 Things You Learned in Kindergarden That’ll Help You With northeastern university parties

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Study abroad experience can have a deep effect on the individual: from changing one's career path and social circles to enhancing global engagement.

Students from Africa, for many decades, have been at the pursuit of high-quality education provided all over the world. Motivated by strong aspirations and livelihood opportunities, the African students are looking beyond what their home nation can offer.

Study abroad experience can have a deep impact on the person: by changing one's career path and social circles to improving global engagement. A recent study conducted at the University of Minnesota has demonstrated that international students become civically involved and, despite the expectations, are somewhat most likely to come back to their home countries.

Why Does African Students Seek Education Abroad?

Depending on the character of a person and their career goals, international students from Africa can either study in prestigious African American universities or venture to go farther and travel to the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Ireland, Turkey, Dubai or many different destinations in Europe or Asia.

In the last decade, South Africa has witnessed that the second largest number of students in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Libya, and other African countries.

Below is a brief overview of the admission statistics printed in 2018.

What motivates African Study abroad students?

As the next chart reflects, students from the area are strongly inspired by career aspirations and the prospect of enhanced career opportunities. The responses reflected in the chart are for prospective undergraduate students, but the exact same patterns hold for master's and PhD students too.

Almost three in four respondents indicate that progressing into a higher degree qualification is an important element in their own interest in pursuing an undergraduate degree abroad. Nearly half see a overseas undergraduate degree as a method of advancing in their current career path, and a similar percentage see a foreign diploma as a requirement to enter their intended profession. Finally, almost a third (29 percent ) see study abroad as a means of enhancing their career prospects.

The graph illustrates how weighted the poll answer is to these variables, relative to personal or cultural motivators for example chances for exchange or private interest.

Where to study abroad?

According to the Newest QS Applicant Survey, the US and Canada are the leading destinations for African students to proceed with their studies. Around 36% of pupils refer going to colleges in both the US and Canada for undergraduate and master courses. The figures showed 31%, 25% and 23 percent of students then prefer the UK, Australia, and Germany respectively.

China is yet another popular destination that has witnessed a stride at the flow of African students to their top universities. The number of students from Africa took a whopping spike of 95,000 in 2014, and the nation has since vowed 30,000 more scholarships to encourage more freedom from Africa. France has also been attracting pupils from French-speaking countries such as Algeria and Cameroon.

The factors for pupils from Africa to opt for these states is highly affected by the caliber of instruction and over all of the Financial Aid. Most universities in Europe also need very less or no tuition fees.

The investment at a diploma from a US establishment has been viewed positively by global employers for decades. The Higher Education system in the USA helps develop robust critical thinking skills and fosters a collaborative approach to learning. The breadth of the program encourages students to research topics far beyond their own major. This offers a broader understanding of the world along with a much more open perspective.

Such skills and approaches are much appreciated by employers and also have developed a powerful entrepreneurial spirit among US graduates. The rapid growth of Silicon Valley in California is just one particularly shining example of the advantages of a US Higher Education. Study in the USA and follow your own American dream.

Canada offers a exceptional chance to research completely in English, entirely in French or on a bilingual program. Having a population of roughly 10% of its southern neighbor, the USA, Canada has plenty of space. As a result, there are clear pathways to immigration post-study. Canada is renowned for the friendliness of its people, its security, and its quality of life.

These points have made Canada an ever more popular destination for studies among international students generally. Approximately 20% of the Canadian people speak French as their native language. English, in 56%, is by far the predominant language across the country. This is important to bear in mind if you are from a French-speaking country.

Study Abroad agencies mostly operate with institutions in the English-speaking part of Canada. This is only because we consider proficiency in English is a vital skill for today's globally mobile workforce. If you plan to operate in Canada after graduation that a strong knowledge of English will be essential. But for those who do like to study in French, Seed is able to provide extremely affordable options too.

At all levels that the British schooling system has an excellent global reputation for academic accomplishment. The UK is home to a number of the most famous schools, universities and colleges on the planet.

It is the achievements of pupils of the UK higher education system which generated the nation's academic reputation.

Study In Germany

Germany is the economic powerhouse of Europe together with the continent's biggest economy. That is fuelled by the greatest population in Europe, of over 83 million individuals. The first research universities in the world have been in Germany and many are still available today.

The United Nations Development Programme places Germany as 6th on the Human Development Index. This is forward of popular study abroad destinations the USA, United Kingdom, and Canada.

The German Government reports that there are around 375,000 international students registered at university there. That's over 12% of the entire amount of college students in the nation. Approximately 18,000 African students, each year choose Germany for college overseas.

No surprise since the nation is home to famous engineering and manufacturing brands. STEM subjects are popular course choices with African American study abroad students.

Turkey isn't just a beautiful destination for travelers but also appealing to many foreign students. Research in Turkey is also relatively cheap compared with many other nations overseas. There has been enormous investment in universities there in the past couple of years. Because of this, scholarships in usa Seed educational consulting Turkish universities offer high-quality education and top-of-the-range centers, but in a very affordable rate, to equip their students with the essential knowledge and skills needed to excel in the world.

Public universities mostly offer programs delivered entirely in Turkish, though it is also possible to find some bilingual (Turkish and English ) applications and even some applications delivered in French at select institutions. There are not any programs taught entirely in English in public colleges so any African student looking to research in public universities need to examine the Turkish language initially and successfully pass the Tomer Exam (the Turkish equivalent to the TOEFL Exam).

Personal universities offer you a great deal of programs taught entirely in English. We'll mainly focus our attention on private universities in this manual as we do strongly believe in the worldwide work opportunities that are going to be offered to you if you study in English.

Study Abroad in Dubai

Dubai is located in one of the seven United Arab Emirates and is home to specialists from all over the world. Dubai has a famously fast-growing economy and is known for innovation. Obviously, the luxury shopping adventures make it a dream destination for many foreign students.

Study in Ireland

Ireland is a European nation famous for its civilization the world over. It is true a less known research destination for African American students than its near neighbour, the United Kingdom. However, because we hope to reveal in this manual, there are lots of good reasons to think about Ireland to your studies.

The Irish people are proud of the culture and thus work hard to maintain it. Ireland is an Anglophone country which makes it attractive for both African American students who already speak English and people who wish to enhance theirs. Ireland is home to students from other areas of the planet too.

Ireland has a younger population than many Western European countries and a highly educated people. The nation is often known as the Celtic Tiger for its strong financial performance during the previous 30 years.

Ireland includes a pioneering and can-do spirit. Irish experience in agriculture has helped turn arid lands in Africa into abundant farming. As well as an upstart Irish airline business, Ryanair, revolutionised air travel within Europe, becoming the largest European airline in terms of passenger numbers pre-COVID.

Unlike the united kingdom, Ireland is a part of the European Union (even though it is not part of the Schengen visa zone). In recent years, thanks to its highly trained workforce, Ireland has drawn multinationals, such as Amazon and Microsoft, to install European HQs here. Since 1st February 2020 it's the largest Anglophone country over the European Union, which is very likely to make it an appealing base for additional international companies looking to set up hubs inside the European Union's Single Market.

Ireland is a very safe and gorgeous country with fantastic areas to visit.

African Students in the U.S.

Nownot all those students listed previously are coming to the U.S., needless to say, and next week we will discuss about where else those students may be studying and how to compete with another destinations African students are considering and choosing.

As for the countries with the most students traveling to the U.S., the breakdown is as follows, according to the Institute of International Education's 2018 Open Door report:

Source Nation

Students Studying in the US

(2018 IIE Data)

Nigeria

12,693

Egypt

3,701

Kenya

3,322

Ghana

3,213

Ethiopia

2,118

South Africa

2,040

Morocco

1,563

Nigeria leading the bunch is no surprise, as it has the highest GDP of African American economies, and consequently has more students that can manage a U.S. education. The rest of the list all have savings in the Top 8 across the continent, except for Ghana, that is not much behind at 11th.

While another 47 nations in Africa aren't listed above, virtually all of them are sending pupils to the U.S. and other countries for tertiary education.

It may seem, by taking a look at the above record, which Nigeria is your crystal clear place to invest your recruiting efforts. But remember, with higher pupil numbers comes more competition from other universities overseas.

Do not ignore the rest of the nations with fewer students already traveling to the U.S., as those might be untapped markets which would provide you more bang for your recruitment dollar. As we said in a prior blog post about Africa, the less traveled path represents the less competitive route. Consider how fine it would be to be one of the top ranked universities at a college fair.

According to this 2018 report from IIE only 4 percent of overseas students in the U.S. have been from sub-Saharan African nations. (The statistics for those from northern African nations is combined with those in the Middle East, which account for 2 percent.)

Who are these students and what exactly are they studying?

African pupils bring an invaluable perspective and drive to campus, says WENR within this slightly older post. WENR spoke to The University of Rochester's vice provost and dean of admissions Jonathan Burdick, noting,"These students, most of them engineers working to tackle quite tangible struggles, have an outsize effect within their branches and on campus."

Tourism and healthcare will also be on the upswing.

If your organization has a solid program in these areas, there are a number of frequent flyer miles to be got and students to be recruited.

Can they afford it, though?

But while the language barrier may not be a significant challenge, a financial one definitely is. The cost for a single year for an American school greatly surpasses the average yearly household income for some African countries.

What incentive is there for universities to offer bigger financial aid packages to those international students? Word of mouth for you personally. Bear in mind that college-aged population boom? That's a good deal of mouths and the subsequent generations will probably be learning about education options from those who went before them.

WES forecasts that,"Given that the price of successful recruitment efforts and the need to deploy both dollars and recruiters , these networks of alumni can offer a wealth of rewards with relatively few risks."

Prerequisites to Study Abroad

The requirements to study abroad for many international students would count on the country, the college, and the program. But, there's a standard set of files necessary to apply to all universities.

Transcripts from Faculties

Recommendation Letters

Statement of Purpose

For Undergraduate programs, students would need to pass the typical global entrance exams like SAT based on the nation you are applying to. The African matric qualification alone might not qualify one to the required degree.

For postgraduate programs, you would need completion of diploma certificate and would be required to write the nation and course-specific entry examinations.

The minimum grade requirements for Universities will vary across the nations. Also based upon the medium of education, students might need to take language tests to show the amount of proficiency.

Apart from this, to receive a student visa, you would also have to show Confirmation of registration, proof of adequate funds and meet the health insurance requirements.

Composing an extensive admission essay or personal statement puzzles many foreign applicants. The majority of non-native English applicants don't feel confident in their application papers. That is why many of them utilize this platform to purchase essay online:

Each of the countries mentioned above have been focusing on expanding their educational prospects by welcoming more international students. As part of this, many scholarships are offered by the many organizations to inspire students. Listed below are a couple of notables ones for pupils from Africa.

Mastercard Foundation Scholarship: Canadian and American Universities have booted up the Mastercard to offer you a $500 million initiative to provide scholarships for 15,000 students, particularly from Africa. The University of Toronto, McGill University, the University of British Columbia are one of the top colleges offering the scholarship applications.

Australian Development Scholarships (ADS) for African American Pupils: An initiative from the Australian Government to provide fellowships and financial aid for 1,000 postgraduate students from Africa.

The Beijing Government Scholarship (BGS): Offered from the Beijing Municipal Government that supplies a full tuition fee for global students studying in Beijing.

French Government (Eiffel Excellence) Masters and Ph.D.. Scholarships: Scholarships of Masters and Ph.D. students from developing countries majoring in technology, science, economics, law, and science.

VLIR-UOS Training Scholarships in Belgium: Known for pupils from African countries with preference given to girls who take available training and master programs in English.

Language Language Proficiency

Students will have to give proof that they have achieved a certain level of English language proficiency.

The amount required again will be determined by the University along with the application. These will be the commonly accepted evaluations.

IELTS Academic Module

TOEFL

VU English EAP

These evaluations should be obtained no less than two decades prior to commencing the program.

Nearly all African pupils prefer to settle on a degree in technology or business studies. In European countries notably languages, art, and human sciences are also popular topics followed by law enforcement and political science.

Students from African countries are wanting to go abroad to countries offering them better standards of living. The ability to keep in the country after finishing the course will be also becoming a significant deciding factor. Nonetheless, it is also common for pupils to return their expertise to their home states and contribute to strengthening their economy.

Every nation has something to offer, and it is best to choose the course based on individual and academic tastes.

Information sources and funding for Study Abroad

Nearly six in ten prospective students look to schooling agents for help in identifying and researching alternatives for study abroad. However, the QS survey clearly indicates that most pupils make significant use of online stations as well, particularly organic search, institutional sites, school choice sites, and social websites. Between 80% and 100 percent of survey respondents stated that they make extensive use of all of these online tools.

The other striking feature of pupil mobility from the area is the dominant role played by third party funders, especially in the form of government or corporate scholarships. As the following graphic reflects, personal or family financing plays a major role for most students from the area.

The ranking of financing sources illustrated here reflects the prominent part of third-party funders (and also the significance of affordability variables ) that we have seen elsewhere to key markets in the area, notably Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana.

The Agent Network in Africa

The broker recruiting channel is still growing in Africa. They're determined and keen to sign up new contracts -- unlike most of their colleagues in China and India who've become extremely discerning about which universities they will support. We've met a number of agents from African countries at the ICEF Miami workshop and highly suggest this chance to meet and assess the options.

Unlike the recruiting agent systems in China and India that are highly developed and have matured into a challenging community of super agencies which have many unstructured (and often uncontrollable) sub-agents, you will find opportunities to create valuable relationships with many of the agencies that are growing in Africa. This recruiting channel is a blog topic all of its own and we'll discuss it

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aion-rsa · 3 years

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I Think You Should Leave Season 2: Ranking Every Sketch

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How on Earth did we survive two years without new episodes of Netflix’s brilliant sketch comedy series I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson? The first batch of six episodes premiered on April 23 of 2019 and proved instantly iconic.

Contained within the season’s roughly two-dozen sketches was absolutely hilarious and essential comedy that provided ample memetic kindling for the internet’s conversational fire. For the focused enough mind, it’s entirely possible to communicate with one’s friends exclusively in I Think You Should Leave memes. Lord knows, I’ve tried it.

Thankfully, ITYSL season 2 has finally arrived on Netflix after its COVID-19 delay. It features 28 sketches that range from “pretty funny” to “I can’t stop laughing. Oh God, I can’t stop laughing. It hurts, surely this is the end. Surely, I will die.”

Check out our rankings below and then begin yelling at our chances like Spectrum is dropping your network.

28. Credit Card Roulette

If nothing else, Tim Robinson and I Think You Should Leave co-creator Zach Kanin are incredible comedy scouts. Through two seasons, the show’s sketches have been a who’s who of up-and-coming comedic talent, like the wonderful John Early who is featured in this sketch. Unfortunately Early is not served well by the material here, which doesn’t rise to the same ludicrous heights as season 2’s other sketches. The best moment is Early’s immediate resolve that he’s not paying the bill, but the sketch doesn’t go too far after that.

27. Dave’s Poop Double

The sketch that serves as the cold open of season 2’s final episode doesn’t get things off to the best start. The concept of Tim’s “Luka” hiring a guy who looks just like his coworker Dave to take monster shits every time he gets up is certainly fun but missing an important layer of added absurdity. Luka is probably the best name for any of Robinson’s random characters yet though.

26. Little Buff Boys Pt. 2

Season 2 features many more callbacks to previous sketches than the first season did. This followup to Little Buff Boys is the worst of the bunch but still quite funny. Perhaps the only thing more absurd than a Little Buff Boys competition is someone being proud of running “one of” the biggest LBB competitions in the Greater Cincinnati area. This sketch also passes up an easy Cincinnati Chili joke in favor of creating the truly vile “cherry chuck salad.”

25. Detective Crashmore Trailer

This trailer for action thriller Detective Crashmore is funny enough on its own but doesn’t reach another comedic level until the AOL Blast interview two sketches later. Still, I unironically want to see an action film with a lead character whose main quip is “Eat fucking bullets, you fuckers. You fucking suck. You fucking SUCK!”

24. I Should Have Got That

I Think You Should Leave deserves a big spread in AARP magazine. No other sketch show revels in the talents of older comedians quite like this one. After 81-year-old comedian Ruben Rabasa stole the show in season 1, season 2 ups the ante with many more sketches letting old folks shine. It’s Bob McDuff Wilson’s turn this time around and his child-like obsession with his student’s burger kills right up until the shockingly dark kicker.

23. Office Surfing

“I almost killed myself, Jullliieeeeee” is one of the best line-reads of the season. The sketch it’s built around isn’t too remarkable but man, does Robinson knock that one out of the park.

22. “No, I Don’t Know How to Drive”

This is a quickie but a goodie. Robinson’s characters break down in tears quite often this season and this is one of the better occasions. How far have Tim’s characters come – from reveling in the existence of four-wheeled motorcycles to looking at the inside of a car and weeping “I don’t know what any of this shit is and I’m fucking scared.”

21. The Capital Room

Speaking of top tier comedic talent, thank God Patti Harrison stopped by another season of I Think You Should Leave. This time around, we get two heaping doses of Patti. This one, the first of the two, is the inferior but still quite great. In the span of roughly 30 seconds, Harrison unveils the saga of a woman who A. Got sewn into the pants of the Thanksgiving Day parade Charlie Brown float, B. Hates all bald boys, C. Sued the city and won a fortune, D. Is now helplessly addicted to wine, and E. Is tragically self-aware that her money will run out soon.

20. But It’s Lunch

Just like last year’s opening sketch, “But It’s Lunch” (this is probably a good time to mention, that I’m naming all of these things myself. You could very easily call this the Hotdog sketch but that would confuse it with last year’s hotdog sketch) sets the perfect opening mood. The sight gag of Robinson’s Pat trying to stealthily eat a hotdog is wonderful, and the fact that things so quickly escalate to hotdog surgery and puke is just sublime.

19. Carber Hotdog Vacuum

The follow-up to “But It’s Lunch” occurs a full two episodes later and proves to be a hell of a pay-off. Robinson’s unnamed character (who is obviously Pat) very quickly reveals that there is one very specific reason he made this hotdog vacuum invention and you’ll never guess what it was. We all make mistakes. We shouldn’t be fired for them.

18. Insider Trading Trial (Stupid Hat)

This sketch somewhat mimics the experience of trying to explain what I Think You Should Leave is like to someone who has never seen it. “So, this guy took too small a slice of toilet paper…” or “…and then he has to have to have sex with his mother-in-law.” “Insider Trading” rotely describes the bizarre behaviors of one of Robinson’s deeply strange characters, Brian, as it’s being read into the court record. Brian and his stupid fedora with the safari flaps is in attendance to provide a visual aid. As are some hilarious flashbacks in which Brian attempts to roll the hat down his arm like Fred Astaire and instead encounters only wheelchair grease.

17. The Ice Cream Store is Closed Today

Before he was a criminal lawyer, Bob Odenkirk was one of the most legendary sketch writers of all time. It’s only fitting that he stop by ITYSL season 2 to provide his comedic blessing. Odenkirk is great from the get-go but this one doesn’t really get rolling until the end when Robinson finds himself truly immersed in the fictional life of this sad old man. “His wife’s sick but she’s gonna get better” is a shockingly emotional moment amid pure farce.

16. Barbie and the Blues Brothers

This is the sketch that climbed the most in my rankings upon a second viewing. What first seemed to be a waste of Conner O’Malley’s manic comedic energy became a semi-classic once I submitted to its strange vibes. I don’t even know what to call this one but Robinson’s character refusing to stop dancing as Barbie the dog melts down is hilarious. O’Malley is better served by last season’s “honk if you’re horny” sketch, still he gets some bangers in this time around like “She thinks he’s a whole new guy because of the glasses and the hat” and “it’s her house, she’s doing what’s right!” Robinson once again closes this nonsense out with some well-earned tears. “It’s just me, Barbie. I’m not the Blues Brothers.”

15. Jaime Taco (I Love My Wife)

“Jamie Taco” is a prime example of just how rapidly (and how well) I Think You Should Leave is able to veer into pure nonsensical genius. At the top, this sketch comes perilously close to making an actual statement about how men are too quick to pretend like their wives are horrible nags. This sketch, however, has its sights set on something much dumber…and therefore better. Our hero (played hilariously by Richard Jewell’s Paul Walter Hauser) loves his wife because she helped him through his darkest moment, which just so happens to be when snotty young actor Jamie Taco refused to let him say his Henchman lines in a play.

14. Comos Restaurant

All hail the return of the great Tim Heidecker! Heidecker, of Tim and Eric Awesome Show, Great Job! fame, is one of the few comedians with a strange enough sensibility to be reasonably seen as an I Think You Should Leave forerunner. His season 1 turn as a walnut-obsessed jazz douche is a classic and this one reaches similar heights. This time, Heidecker’s character, Gary, and his lovely date, Janeane (Tracey Birdsall), have good reason to be annoyed by their date night at the sci-fi cosmos restaurant being interrupted by some hacky jokes. Of course, they use this opportunity to reveal that Jeannine’s mom used to drink puke for the Davy and Rascal radio show to pay for school supplies. It’s oddly refreshing to have a Heidecker character given a game partner and Gary and Janeane make one great team.

13. Detective Crashmore Interivew

While the Detective Crashmore trailer is the setup, this interview with AOL Blast is the punchline. Detective Crashmore is played by Santa Claus, because why not? Actor Biff Wiff’s gruff, nasally Midwestern timber is the perfect accent to accompany this lunacy. This is a Santa who in one breath demands to be taken seriously as an actor (Billy Bob Thornton-style) and in the next admits to seeing everyone in the world’s dick.

12. Sloppy Steaks (I Used to Be a Piece of Shit)

From here on out, it’s nothing but absolute homeruns. “Sloppy Steaks” could very well have been number one on this list and few would have batted an eye. The setup here is amazing as it gives Tim Robinson a reason to essentially have beef with a baby. The baby cries because he knows Robinson used to be a piece of shit. But don’t babies understand that people can change? That’s funny enough to begin with, but the real gut-busting moment here is the reveal of what “being a piece of shit” really means. In this case it means slicking one’s hair back and dousing the steaks at Truffoni’s with water to make sloppy steaks.

11. Johnny Carson Impersonator

Just a quick rundown for those who are confused…

Johnny Carson = Can Hit. George Kennedy = Can’t Hit. George Bush = Can’t Hit.

10. Driving School (Her Job is Tables)

This is the rare I Think You Should Leave sketch that actually provides an answer to all the lunacy. As Robinson’s character’s Driver’s Ed class watches Patti Harrison’s actress in some dated videos, they can’t help but wonder what she does for a living. “Tables,” Robinson answers over and over again. This would be funny enough on its own but the reveal that Harrison provides tables to Monster Cons is a rare and valuable moment of “Ohhhhh that’s why” for this show. Equally as valuable is Harrison, who really sells that those tables are her lifeblood.

9. Claire’s Ear-Piercings

One has to wonder how much time goes into choosing the perfect “order” for the sketches in I Think You Should Leave. Two seasons in a row now, the show has selected pitch perfect opening and closing sketches. This closing number is oddly melancholic as the Claire’s orientation video for girls who want to get their ears pierced somehow gives way to one 58-year-old man named Ron Tussbler’s existential dread. If we really get to see the “highlights” after we die, forcibly fake laughing every ten minutes to make the voyeuristic experience all the richer sounds like a good strategy and not sad at all. Hang in there, Ron.

8. Little Buff Boys Competition

What. A. Crop. It was a virtual certainty that ITYSL season 2 would feature a spiritual successor to the classic “Baby of the Year” sketch in season 1. Thank God “Little Buff Boys” is up to the challenge of replicating that magic. This one has all the right elements to be another hit: Sam Richardson (in a wig this time, no less), a grand pageant hall, and some precocious youths. Troll Boy also joins the canon of young ITYSL characters who everybody instinctively hates alongside Bart Harley Jarvis.

7. Tammy Craps

There’s something weirdly nefarious about this commercial for a poisonous doll that doesn’t have farts in her head anymore. It’s a criticism of late stage capitalism crossed with the cursed nature of the Annabelle movies…while not being like either of those things at all. In reality, this is just another absurdist concept sprung from the terrifying inner depths of the writing staff’s mind. It also happens to be a particularly great one. The girl weighing her clothes down with rocks so she can hit the magical 60-pound threshold to safely play with Tammy Craps is one of the best gags of the season.

6. Karl Havoc

“Little Buff Boys Competition” and another upcoming sketch are likely to produce the lion’s share of memes and quotes from this season of ITYSL. But the one quote that’s stuck in my mind most aggressively comes from this hilarious episode 1 clip. The sight of Robinson’s Carmine Laguzio posing as the dead-faced freakshow Karl Havoc and muttering “I don’t want to be around anymore” is quite simply one of the funniest things I’ve ever witnessed. This is a marvelous, unnerving, utterly hilarious sketch. That there are somehow five better sketches speaks to how strong this season is.

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5. Dan Flashes Pt. 1 (Office)

I Think You Should Leave is now two for two in introducing the most cutting edge items in men’s fashion. Season 1 featured the arrival of the highly practical TC Tugger shirt. Now season 2 ups the ante with the stylish Dan Flashes. This sketch succeeds because it takes a simple question “Why is Mike laying down during a business meeting?” and divines the most outlandish answer possible. Mike isn’t eating because he’s spending all his money on Dan Flashes shirts.

4. Dan Flashes Pt. 2 (Hotel Menu)

It’s one thing to introduce a hilarious concept, it’s another thing entirely to put it into practice. This second entry into the Dan Flashes canon is amazing. Back in part 1, it seemed as though the intricate patterns on the Dan Flashes shirts have a hypnotic effect on men who look exactly like Tim Robinson. Seeing the reality of that – pasty men battling one another to get their credit cards to the cashier before the other – is truly hilarious stuff.

3. Coffin Flop

This is the second sketch of the entire season…the second! And holy shit, does it set a strong precedent for what’s to come. This impassioned message from the Corncob TV CEO for Spectrum to save his network and its precisely one television program is a masterclass in shock humor. Watching body after body busting out of shit wood somehow never loses its grim luster. Somehow, in a sketch that features dozens of naked corpses flopping to the ground unexpectedly, it’s Robinson’s monologue that hits the hardest. “This world is so fucked up. And people are mad at me because I showed a bunch of naked dead bodies with their spread blue butts flying out of boxes? Really?”

2. Calico Cut Pants

Every episode of I Think You Should Leave season 2 features five sketches save for episode 4 which has only three. And that’s because episode 4 is dominated by a near 10-minute epic called “Calico Cut Pants.” In many ways, Calico Cut Pants is the platonic ideal of an ITYSL sketch. It takes place in a nightmarish world where every bizarre action only leads to an even more bizarre reaction. Nothing ever cools down. There is always something stranger on the horizon.

In this instance, Mike O’Brien (longtime SNL writer and the creator of the terminally underrated comedy A.P. Bio) plays an office drone who enters into a living hell merely because his co-worker helps him out of a mildly annoying social jam. Robinson’s character introduces him to a website that advertises pants with piss stains on them. That’s all well and good but once you know about Calicocutpants.com you Always. Have. To. Give. It’s like PBS, but more demonic. This remarkable sketch includes everything that’s great about this show, right down to characters with inexplicable idiosyncrasies like Tim Robinson’s adamance that doors must always be held open for him.

1. Ghost Tour

The funniest moment in ITYSL season 2 (and maybe the funniest moment in the history of the world) occurs in this sketch. Tim Robinson’s character has been admonished for his potty mouth during a ghost tour over and over again. The tour guide even said he’s ruining his job. But this poor man sincerely cannot understand why he’s in trouble. This is a tour for adults and he’s following the rules by using adult language. Like any good Robinson character, he truly believes that he’s the sane one and it’s the rest of the world that’s taking crazy pills.

So in his darkest moment, the man musters up his strength through tears and delivers the following query:

“Not trying to be funny. Not trying to get a laugh. I don’t want anybody to have the worst day at their job. But. Do any of these….fuckers….ever blast out of the wall and have, like a huge cum shot?”

Cue: riotous, damn near apocalyptic laughter. What a treasure and blessing this whole show is.

I Think You Should Leave season 2 is available to stream on Netflix now.

The post I Think You Should Leave Season 2: Ranking Every Sketch appeared first on Den of Geek.

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entergamingxp · 4 years

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Why a massive fan Pokmon tournament could change competitive Pokmon forever • Eurogamer.net

On March 31, the Pokémon Company cancelled all further tournaments in the 2020 season due to the coronavirus. The World Championship was set to take place in the Excel Arena in London this year, the first time the prestigious tournament would have been held outside of North America.

It was undoubtedly the right decision for player and fan safety, ultimately put into perspective by the fact the Excel Arena has since been converted into a temporary hospital for coronavirus patients. However, competitive Pokémon players were left bereft, with nothing to play for or aim towards this year.

Unlike other esports, all major Pokémon tournaments happen in conjunction with their Trading Card Game counterparts, and therefore currently have to be attended in person at large events. The regular Regional and National events are the easiest method of obtaining qualification for the World Championships, but they are also the highlights of players’ calendars.

Image credit: KoenGraphics.

Tournaments held by fans, however, can be organised however they like, with as many or as few ties to TCG events as the organisers wish. Having felt the sting of these cancellations, YouTuber Dan “aDrive” Clapp and former Pokémon World Champion Wolfe Glick wanted to bring the tournament scene to players in isolation. Their creation, the Champion’s Cup, wouldn’t be the first online Pokémon tournament, and it won’t be the last, but they wanted to make sure it was the biggest, the best, and as close to the real thing as possible.

“We had a pretty overwhelming response from a player perspective,” Clapp tells Eurogamer. “The biggest VGC event in person for a Regional previously was almost 550 or so people and we managed to run a tournament with 1500 people. And I think we could have easily gone higher than that if we had the staffing for it.”

The Champion’s Cup reached its player cap within days of signups opening, making it the biggest online Pokémon Video Game Championships (VGC) tournament ever, both in terms of player numbers and the size of the prize pool. A slice of $15,000 was up for grabs with no strings attached. There were no hoops to jump through in order to qualify, no travel arrangements to work out – all players needed was a Nintendo Switch, WiFi, and a $12 entrance fee.

“One of the core pillars of this idea was to ensure it was accessible to people, and it wasn’t gatekept,” Clapp explains. “We really wanted to make it open to anyone who wanted to compete. Players, they’re paying to enter, but paying 12 or 15 bucks to enter a tournament is such a low opportunity cost when you compare it to something like having to pay $1000 for your flight, your hotel, the entry fee, all that stuff.”

As exciting as in-person tournaments are, not everyone can afford to travel across continents to compete. Kids in younger categories may be relying on their parents’ expendable income, and adults competing in older categories may not be able to take three days off work. However, logging onto an online tournament for a couple of hours a day is much more likely to fit into peoples’ lives, and it’s definitely much cheaper.

While it is unreasonable to expect the Pokémon Company to pay for every player’s travel expenses, Regional and National Championships, which are pretty much a requirement to enter if you want any chance of receiving an invitation to the World Championships, could surely take place online.

Qualifying for World Championships from home is not unusual in the wider world of eSports, either. Fortnite, for instance, hosts worldwide World Cup qualifiers from your home PC or console, with only the main event taking place on a physical stage.

2v2 doubles battles are the official format of VGC tournament and the Champion’s Cup.

Fevzi Özkan, the 24-year-old eventual winner of The Champion’s Cup, felt the tournament offered a beacon of hope and something to aim towards after the 2020 season was cancelled.

“It kind of replaced World’s for me… This was the tournament of the year for me basically.”

Considering Özkan placed fifth at the Pokémon Regional Championships in Malmö earlier this year, that is no mean feat. What’s more, he feels the standard of competition was as high in the Champion’s Cup as at “regular” tournaments he has attended this season.

“I played the best in the world in this tournament. I also played them at Regionals or Internationals,” he explains. “In the finals, I played Edo, who’s one of the best players in the world. And in the top eight, I played Casti, who’s a Spanish veteran player who’s won two National Championships.”

However, there are some things an online competition just can’t recreate – for instance, the physical and very guttural feeling of searching for a friend between rounds in a room full of people all doing the same, just to find out whether they won or lost.

“The main difference was not being able to see the friends I’m used to seeing at events – you cheer with them when you win a round, and this felt like I’m just like, I don’t know, playing and playing and playing without the company of my friends. Obviously, they still congratulated me online, but offline it’s a different feeling for sure.”

While both Özkan and Clapp enjoy the huge in-person events and don’t want to see them disappear completely, they believe a shift towards online tournaments could help the competitive Pokémon community even after the COVID-19 lockdown ends and the “new normal” begins.

“It does seem as though this [coronavirus situation] is going to change the way we as people interact for the coming days, months and even years,” says Clapp. “There’s going to be a dramatic shift in terms of how these live events are run and how this whole live tournament scene takes place. And I think there’s gonna be some drastic shifts globally… There could be a massive shift toward online gaming.”

Özkan agrees Pokémon could benefit from more online competitions. “A healthy combination [of online and in-person tournaments] would be the best actually. Like sometimes when I have exams, or I know some people are working so they don’t have the time to just take the whole weekend off. And if those tournaments sometimes happen online, people have the time to maybe play some hours. It [an in-person tournament] is also a lot more expensive.”

Pokémon hosts a monthly VGC competition online in Sword and Shield, but these offer a measly 20 Championship Points for the winner, meaning there’s no way of earning an invitation to the World Championships by solely competing in these events – and the only prizes other than Championship Points are in-game rewards. However, it shows the infrastructure is there, ready for larger tournaments to be held online in the games.

Here’s my Champions Cup winning team, the biggest Pokemon VGC tournament in history! pic.twitter.com/oQeUYaNt0i

— Fevzi (@fevzioe) April 7, 2020

A shift to online competition could help disabled players, too. Playing from the comfort of your own home can soothe nerves and make you more comfortable, but players can also use whatever controller they desire. This may seem unimportant, but currently only officially-licensed controllers are allowed at Pokémon events. As detailed by the Video Game Rules, Formats & Penalty Guidelines: “Players are permitted to bring their own officially-licensed wired controller. Wireless controllers are not permitted.”

Nintendo does not currently produce an “adaptive controller” or a controller to help people with disabilities. As such, being able to play from home allows players to use whatever controller they are most comfortable with, including something specialised to their needs.

For example, the Fortnite World Cup 2019 rules state that while Epic provides a range of Xbox and PS4 controllers for players to use at in-person events, player-owned equipment may be used pending approval from the event administrators. Furthermore, the rules state that “peripherals for players with accessibility needs will be handled on a case-by-case basis”. To our knowledge, nobody has taken an Xbox Adaptive Controller or similar accessibility-aiding controller to a Fortnite World Cup event, but the rules allow players to have the option should they require it.

The Champion’s Cup showcased some unique Pokémon and created David and Goliath moments.

Pokémon is not a game where your choice of controller has any tangible impact on performance. It is not a game of speed, movement, or reaction times – it is purely based on strategy. To that end, different controllers should not affect the outcomes of matches.

However, the Champion’s Cup did not just level the playing field for players. Tournament Organisers (TOs) and commentary teams often volunteer their time to work at Pokémon events, even official ones. Clapp and Glick wanted to make sure everyone was compensated fairly for their tireless work in the Champion’s Cup, and they were entirely transparent with how they were spending the entry fees collected – even to the extent of publishing their payment structure on Twitter. Commentators, TOs, and graphic designers were paid for their time, and the rest of the entry fees revenue went straight into the prize pool. Neither Clapp nor Glick took a cut.

?CHAMPIONS CUP? ,000 Prize Pool!

Our new *tentative* prize payout pending 1504 player cap Full details in Discord Server: https://t.co/EvT5AIGvrR

We believe it’s of great importance we disclose how we spend the entry fee. pic.twitter.com/djcMrAwxfZ

— aDrive (@aDrive_tK) March 31, 2020

It’s clear this pair of Pokémon pros wanted to, in Clapp’s words, “give people something to play for in this difficult time”. And that offer was extended to anyone, whether a casual player or the best of the best.

While the Champion’s Cup may spawn a fully online competitive circuit with Clapp and Glick at the helm, it could also change the way more Pokémon tournaments are run in the future – even official VGC events. The pair are already campaigning for a “spectator mode” to be implemented into Pokémon Sword and Shield in order to better stream competitions, but the impact of the Champion’s Cup’s success could be felt throughout Pokémon VGC tournaments in years to come.

For the time being, though, Clapp is thinking about the present. “In a time where we’re so desperate to have this in-person social interaction,” he says, “the next best thing is online social interaction.”

from EnterGamingXP https://entergamingxp.com/2020/04/why-a-massive-fan-pokmon-tournament-could-change-competitive-pokmon-forever-%e2%80%a2-eurogamer-net/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-a-massive-fan-pokmon-tournament-could-change-competitive-pokmon-forever-%25e2%2580%25a2-eurogamer-net

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cryptodictation · 4 years

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Coping with losses from the pandemic

The world that we knew until a couple of weeks ago collapses under our noses. While we wait for the paralysis of human activity to end the virus, we must continue to search for and deploy solutions to the enormous problems we face. All of us, with governments at the forefront, are at it.

The first front in which you have to act is in the toilet, obviously. There should be no limit to the resources needed to help our health system cope with the pandemic, as well as researchers and laboratories in search of a vaccine and drugs to treat this virus and its possible mutations. The second action is on the economic and social front. We are facing a total and global crisis that is unprecedented for its complexity and depth.

The costs of this pandemic will be very high in human lives, suffering and anguish; and in economic losses. Uncertainty about how long it will last and what the future will be like is high.

Last week I suggested a estimate of the fall of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Spain, which may be conservative, of the order of 10%, about 120,000 million euros. The services sector accounts for 68% of GDP. And, within it, the most important is tourism, which is going to be hit hard by this crisis. Perhaps a 10% drop is a conservative estimate for the Spanish case.

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Also, loss of income should not be confused with loss of wealth, since the always theoretical value of financial and real estate assets will undoubtedly decrease.

What do we do with that huge loss? How can it be managed?

To better understand what solution to give to this drop in income, let's look at the problem not from the GDP side, but from the perspective of the National Income (RN). Both are equal in value.

The RN is the sum of the set of remunerations of all the factors of production of a country during a year. It becomes the counterpart in terms of income or income of the National Product; what is produced, which is what GDP measures, is also collected or entered. The following accounting identity, simplified, shows the composition of the National Income.

National income = wages + business surplus + indirect taxes

It should be clarified that the business surplus includes all those payments that are made to other production factors that are not human work (rents, debt interests, stock dividends, company profits, leasing, etc). Indirect taxes include, above all, VAT.

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The RN of Spain was approximately 1.2 billion euros. Of this amount, 48% corresponds to wages, 42% to gross business surplus and the remaining 10% to indirect taxes.

If the RN falls that 10% that we suppose, and given its composition, we know that a large part of those incomes will not recover when the activity returns to normal. What to do with those losses? Are they liquidity or solvency problems? Surely a blurry mix of both.

To cope with the enormous economic losses generated by the pandemic, there are only three things you can do: assume them, finance them or ‘monetize them’. Or a murky cocktail of the three.

Assume the losses. I have no doubt that a part of will be assumed, voluntarily or not. Mainly, by those who have the most: the companies and households that have accumulated savings. Those who cannot simply cannot. On this road there is not much to legislate, it is a process natural.

Finance losses. This is the path that is being followed in many countries, including ours. Delay the payment of taxes, moratoriums on mortgage payments, rents, energy bills, credits partially guaranteed by the State, etc. Financing losses makes perfect sense, especially if they are temporary. But if they are permanent, and many will be, it does not have as much. We just postpone the problem.

In this financing process, central banks have helped both by lowering interest rates, where there was margin, and by increasing their balance sheets through purchases of financial assets, the well-known and no less problematic quantitative expansion.

Loans used to finance running costs such as wages and rents are unlikely to be repaid. They will likely end up buried in state accounts, along with various other troublesome assets, such as student loans and public-private investments.

Care must be taken in how the private sector is helped without falling into total assumption of losses by the State. Companies must be financed, without a doubt, but with conditions, avoiding asymmetry problems and seeking a progressive distribution in terms of income. This time we cannot choose to rescue the markets and not the people, and we must end situations in which losses are socialized and profits are privatized.

Further, in current circumstances practically only the State could borrow so much to cover the huge hole. The financial markets and the banking system are not in a position to do it alone. Public debt, everyone's, will increase a lot.

Monetize the losses. It is the taboo word for many economists, but it should stop being it. In fact, we are monetizing debt for years through massive purchases of debt by central banks, the so-called quantitative expansion (QE). And these have already announced that they will do more QE this year.

But there is another way monetize the loss of income that we already have on us and that is more effective in times of emergency: the helicopter monetary. In recent weeks, voices, including academics, have been growing to support this emergency solution.

A mone monetary helicopter ’is the creation of money from the State, through its central bank, delivered directly to citizens. For example, two minimum wages (about 2,000 euros) to all Spaniards registered in the electoral roll (about 74,000 million euros).

This emergency solution, like all, has its problems, but right now its advantages are superior to the other options mentioned:

It is effective and simple. Its administrative and legal management cost is less than managing tens of thousands of aid of all kinds through the public and private sector (banks), which are also under quarantine minimums.

It allows liquidity to reach quickly and to all people, whether they are permanent, self-employed, temporary workers, domestic workers or caregivers of dependents.

It is obviously redistributive.

It facilitates that companies (especially SMEs) and the self-employed do not close when they assume the State, through the monetization, part of the salary costs at least for a time. Sweden has done something similar.

It allows households to meet their basic food, energy and housing expenses without having to resort to complicated subsidy processes, credits, moratoriums, etc. Asking citizens and companies to go into debt (albeit at very low cost) to deal with the virus's problems is not a good idea.

The crisis is giving rise to some previously unthinkable policies becoming probable: direct payments to households (Donald Trump, president of the United States, has gone from saying he would never do it to proposing it within 24 hours), debt instruments mutualized in the Euro zone (the expected coronabono) and even major increases in public debt in Germany, the leader of austerity.

Let's assume that the losses that this bloody pandemic has brought us will be distributed in the only three possible ways: assumption of the same, financing through debt and ‘monetization’ (either through purchase of debt by central banks or by monetary helicopter). But In what proportions the losses are distributed among the three options is not a minor or neutral matter.

Political decisions with a broad and urgent line are needed, but they are correct. If we make mistakes, they can be corrected. If the mone monetary helicopter ’were not enough, a universal basic income program or, alternatively, a minimum income program could be studied later..

Everything that makes up the human life system is going to be tested these months. Nothing will ever be the same. How we face the problems and the solutions we give them will depend on whether the future, so uncertain now, is better or worse. To achieve this, imagination, cooperation and courage are essential.

The most negative part, apart from the loss of life, is that we will be somewhat poorer as a whole as we measure GDP now; But perhaps we should use other different measures to measure our development and well-being. Hopefully this will serve to at least reduce inequality. The positive of this self-imposed break to beat the Covid-19 It is the remarkable improvement of the planet's climate.

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