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darlingsdevil · 4 years

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Of The Valley (Joel x Reader)

Chapter 7: Favors II

Summary: Life in Jackson is never easy. Consoling angsty teenagers, wading through the mysterious waters of Joel’s romance language and with a child of your own on the way? Life is about to get a lot harder

Masterlist

RDR2 Masterlist

Tag list (comment to be added or removed) @sidepuff @joelsheartache @fangirl-inthe-us @cowboyfrazer @scarletpines @mikah-writes @sleepylunarwolf @mr-robot-x @shybookdragon @heughan @writer-jamie @nelliecraine

A/N: It has come to my attention I confused a lot of you last chapter.. that was my intention lol. Romance will be coming soon, ish I guess. Finally some background knowledge on Mark though hahah.

Also, damnit tumblr, add a read more tab on mobile please. I hate flooding feeds X(

Comments and reblogs are really appreciated! Seriously, reading comments make my day!

•••

Ellie was royally fucked. Her first reaction was panic, a fleeting feeling that made her want to run, because if you were at the tail end of Maria’s wrath there was no flight or fight — it was just flight.

She wanted to get away from town for one night. One night is all she asked. So she could have a good time with her girlfriend, get drunk and act like a stupid teenager. One night.

“Ellie! Get your ass down here right now!” Maria shouted from the floor below. There was no way Maria wouldn’t smell the pot on her.. she was done for.

Ellie took the walk of shame to the floor below, every step feeling like one closer to her casket. Dina and you followed behind her, wondering if you would both be in trouble.

“You’re in big trouble,” Maria began, her fury practically radiating off of her. You and Dina took a step back from the two, Maria was so focused on Ellie, you and Dina managed to avert her anger towards you two for a moment.

The last thing you wanted was for Ellie to get caught, you would have reminded her how stupid it was to leave and let Dina handle the rest, but it seemed Maria beat you to it.

“What’s our one rule in town, Ellie?” Maria questioned with a tight lipped sentence, her face stern and cold.

“Don’t leave unless you’re allowed to,” Ellie repeated, her eyes looking down.

“And what did you do tonight?”

“I broke that rule.”

Maria nodded. “Yes, you did. You’re getting taken off patrol for two months. Nine o’clock curfew from now until then,” She said sternly.

“What?! No! That’s bullshit! You can’t do that to me!” Ellie said in protest. You and Dina shifted uncomfortably behind her, wondering if you were on Maria’s next hit list.

“Yes, I can. You knew the rules and you broke them, end of discussion,” Maria reminded her. There was no winning against her.

“That’s such bullshit! You can’t take me off of patrol for two months!” Ellie continued.

“End of discussion. We’re going back to town,” Maria’s voice was deliberate, she began walking to the door, ignoring both you and Dina.

You were surprised she found Ellie, though she did mention she was waiting for Ellie to come home last night. Was it possible she was waiting that entire time for her? It was something Maria would do. Two months seemed like a harsh punishment, but Ellie did break the main rule of Jackson.

Seeing Maria reminded you of your little secret that would become not so little in a few months. When was the right time to tell her? It seemed like never, like the pregnancy was a premonition, like it hadn’t even happened yet. You couldn’t think about that now.

Ellie reluctantly began following the three of you after a few moments of shock. Maria was waiting by the door for you, when Ellie and Dina made it through the door, Maria stopped you.

“You two stay out here for a second. Don’t run off either,” She looked at the two of them standing in the doorway, they took a step back and she closed the door on them, leaving you in the lake house with Maria.

Maria pinched the bridge of her nose and looked down at the ground before sighing.

“Any explanation as to why you’re out here?” She asked, looking up at you.

“Dina couldn’t find Ellie so we snuck out to find her,” You shrugged, it was the truth.

“You told me you weren’t going outside of Jackson anymore.”

“I did it yesterday, I figured I could do it once more today. I didn’t want Dina going out here alone,” You explained.

“So if I were to assign you to patrols, you would be fine again?”

Your eyes widened, “No. I don’t want to patrol ever again. I’m fine with being outside of Jackson, I just don’t want to have the job of killing things outside of it anymore.” You put your hands up in defense.

“We’ll talk more about this in town, we need to get Ellie home first.”

•••

Maria rounded up all the teenagers after that, they all got put under curfew too, Cat included. Cat stayed cautiously away from both Dina and Ellie.

The walk home was brutally silent, and uncomfortable. You knew all the drunken teenagers were terrified of the rest of their punishment, getting yelled at by their parents and being the laughing stock of town for a few days. Rarely anyone got caught sneaking out.

The night guards at top of the watchtowers let the group in. Maria stopped them all and told them they needed to see her first thing in the morning at the Courthouse so they could be dealt with. The group dispersed after that. You could still seem them shaking in fear as they walked away.

“Dina, you can go home now. Ellie, I’m taking you home. I’ll swing by your house after, Y/N,” Maria said sternly. Ellie stood next to her awkwardly. Dina nodded and left, slipping you Mark’s gun as she left. Ellie was upset and more worried about Joel finding out. Everything that could have gone wrong tonight did go wrong, Cat was mad at her, Dina probably too, and Maria found out she snuck out. Tonight was a mess.

Maria took Ellie home, the air was tense and uncomfortable. Ellie could only focus on the leaves crunching under her feet as she passed through the town with Maria. Halloween was right around the corner, it was apparent too. Houses were decorated, some even had pumpkins outside, none carved however. No one was up it seemed, Joel went to bed early most nights, Ellie didn’t have to worry about being caught by him just yet. Even with the lights out in most houses, Jackson had a homely feel to it, it felt lived in, which it was.

“I’m disappointed in you, Ellie,” Maria said to her quietly as they passed through a neighborhood to Joel’s home.

Ellie remained silent, her brow furrowed as Maria continued.

“You should have never gone out there, you know the risks firsthand, and maybe some of those other kids don’t understand it quite well but I know for a fact you do.”

“Infected aren’t even spotted this close to town ever,” Ellie replied with defiance in her voice.

“A lake and drunk teenagers do not mix. There are wild animals out there too, many things could have happened, you’re lucky none of you got hurt,” Maria said to the teenager.

“No one got hurt.”

“You’re right no one did. Doesn’t mean because it didn’t happen this time doesn’t mean it won’t happen the next.”

“No one has gotten hurt outside of Jackson in a long time.”

Maria knew that wasn’t true, Mark was killed only a few months ago.

Maria scoffed, they reached the outside of Joel’s house, just as Ellie suspected, the lights were off. She was relieved to avert Joel’s disappointment towards her for at least a few hours. Ellie opened the gate to the backyard.

“We’re talking in the morning when you’re sober. And change your clothes, take a shower, you smell like a skunk.”

Ellie shut the gate, thudding as it closed.

•••

You managed to make it into your house quietly, it looked like no one was awake on your street. Your house was silent as usual. You clicked on the porch light as you hung your coat up, putting yours and Mark’s gun on the coffee table, you were glad you didn’t have to use it. You never wanted to use a gun again.

It was nice being home, you hoped no one would come looking for you for anymore favors tonight. Maria was still going to swing by but you figured she would give Ellie an earful first.

You took Mark’s dog tags off and fiddled them in your hand. He never took them off, you figured he would have been buried with them, yet you were glad Maria managed to save them for you. It was a reminder of who he was, a part of him that would always be with you.

Lane

Mark O.

Denver QZ

A Positive

Mark stood at the scene of the explosion. A ringing in his ears he had never heard before. It wasn’t chaotic anymore, there was no screaming, no wails of anguish, just soldiers barking orders at dazed civilians. The soldiers in Denver were used to this sort of resistance, it was not uncommon for an attack at a checkpoint. There was only two squads sent in for backup. Two squads. Three soldiers dead and two civilians.

Mark could barely even comprehend what he was seeing, like he was looking at a scene from a movie. But the air was too thick with smoke, the air stunk of gunpowder and carnage. This was no movie.

He sat on a curb, watching as the group in front of him did damage control. He watched as the bodies were taken away. He watched and did nothing. There was nothing he could do. The rest of the FEDRA soldiers had pulled him away from the checkpoint and sat him down on the curb like some child.

He couldn’t even find his older brother, only his little sister, choking out his name. He held her as she died, her eyes clouding and a gaping wound coming out of the back of her head. Mark had never felt such shock in his life, one second he was walking down the street to meet her and his brother and the next it was all in flames. He couldn’t see his brother, he couldn’t find whatever remained of him even as he frantically searched through the debris. The smoke was hurting his lungs, it was hard to breathe.

“Don’t you dare fucking die on me, Emily,” Mark shouted at her, clutching the dying girl in his arms. She was young, barely out of boarding school. There was so much blood.. blood that would stain his hands forever, his first glimpse into the true pain of this world. Her blood was slippery and warm, it got all over her clothes. She was wearing the purple shirt with a smiley face Mark worked so hard to find..

“Emmy? Emmy? No, no you’re not dying!” He repeated, shaking her. The blood kept pooling, her eyes were becoming shrouded in fog as she danced on the thin line of life and death.“Wake up, Emily.. you have to wake up,” He trailed off, a realization hitting him. His sister was dead. He could see her laughing and waving to her moments before, her braids bouncing behind her. Mark’s older brother standing next to her.

“No, no, no,” He trembled, grasping her purple shirt.. it was bloodied and dirty now. It was completely ruined.

“Luke!” He shouted, getting up quickly to find his brother. He could barely see through the smoke.. groups of people pushing to get away from the crowded checkpoint. He split through the crowd, shouting his brother's name the entire time. People shoved and pushed as his world crumbled to pieces.

There was no shout of his name in return. Only frantic people pushing him out of their way, their faces going by in blurs as he scanned the crowd for Luke. The smoke was beginning to clear at least.

Luke was standing next to Emily.. Luke was standing next to her… Luke was closer to where the explosion went off.

Mark immediately turned around, running towards where Emily was.

“Luke!” He shouted louder now, desperation in his voice. His heart thrumming so loudly in his chest he felt like it would burst.

There was no response. Only the distant rumble of trucks racing towards the checkpoint, the sound of debris settling and fires cracking. The flames danced around him, concrete and steel covering the ground, dust in the air.

“Fuck!” He mumbled breathlessly, gasping for air as his body trembled, being unable to find his older brother. The silence was disheartening, he knew the truth. Luke was closer to the blast.. and even Emily hadn’t made it. His world had unraveled so quickly, he was going to the checkpoint to meet up with his brother and sister on his arrival back home from outer wall duty, his first day off in months, he was looking forward to it, they all were. They were inviting friends over for a small party, Emily had even made a cake.

But now Luke was dead. Emily was dead. His respected, quiet older brother, his fun and innocent little sister. He knew exactly what group did this. They were going to wish he had been killed in that blast too.

•••

You opened the door for Maria, she did not look happy.

“I appreciate you looking for Ellie, but you should have told me first,” She said as you let her in, leading her to the couch.

“I didn’t want her getting in trouble with you or Joel.. I figured she could have a little time off for now,” You replied. Ellie needed it.

Maria nodded, “I’m letting Joel know in the morning. He is not going to be happy with her. But what if she had gotten into trouble out there? Could you have handled that again?”

You weren’t sure of that answer, but you would have defended yourself. “I had Dina with me.”

“You and Dina alone could not have taken on a group of hunters or infected.”

“I know,” You said softly.

“So why did you agree to go with her?” Maria asked. You knew she would have had questions, probably grilling you on going back to patrol again.

“I couldn’t let Dina go by herself, like I said. I didn’t want either of them getting caught, clearly it didn’t work,” You sighed, leaning back into the couch.

“Ellie should never have gone out there,” Maria remarked with disappointment.

“Teenagers do it all the time.. you need to be less harsh on her.” You owed Ellie a favor or two.

“She needs to be reminded of our rules in town and be more respectful,” Maria replied.

“But two months is a lot.. and in truth she was drunk.. probably high too, you shouldn’t punish her for that long. I think Ellie learned her lesson tonight, she’s just upset right now,” You negotiated. Regardless of whether Ellie had learned her lesson or not, she didn’t deserve that long of a punishment. She deserved a long scolding and a good reminder of what her actions could cause — punishment like that was only going to cause more rebellion.

“I’ll rethink. For your sake. Maybe I’ll let Joel handle her and give her the punishment the rest of the teenagers are getting.”

Telling Joel was a given. You couldn’t negotiate that. It wasn’t the best for her but Joel deserved to know. At least now that Ellie had been caught.

“Could you go back outside Jackson again?” She said after a few seconds of silence, her eyes filled with curiosity.

“I am. I’m going with Joel to the lake in a few days. But I’m not doing patrols again.” Though Joel owed you a trip back to the lake, it would be hypocritical of you to return.

“We need you back on patrols,” Maria confessed.

“I’m not going on patrols anymore,” You replied firmly.

“You know why,” You reminded her.

“Jackson needs you, we need you,” She repeated, taking your hands and placing hers on top of yours.

“You have been doing fine without me,” You said.

“We really need you.”

“Why?”

“I didn’t mean to tell you this now.. but I didn’t mean to keep this from you either,” She began with a sigh, looking away from you. You shifted in your spot, wondering what she was going to tell you.

“There's a horde of infected coming our way, they’re due to hit us in December. Jackson needs you for the fight, to lead the sniping group,” She said determinedly, trying her damndest to convince you.

A horde? There was no way you could deal with fighting a horde, you could barely take out a pack of infected these days without panicking, let alone lead others on how to shoot. You couldn’t risk danger anymore, you weren’t only protecting yourself, but the life of the child growing inside of you. A horde seemed terrifying, most of Jackson hadn’t been outside the walls in years, let alone seen infected. But people would bear arms and fight, they would protect the town if it was the last thing they could do. People would die, people would get hurt, but the town would be safe. The children would be safe. Large groups of hunters occasionally tried to wreak havoc to the town, those who could fight always would, and Jackson won every single time. They had yet to be beaten.

“I can’t.”

Maria expected that response, “I know you don’t want to. I know it reminds you of what happened to Mark, but you have to move on. You’re Jackson’s best shot, we need you the most. I don’t trust anyone on this job more than you.”

“Look, I went on your little crusade yesterday, I did what I had to do and I told you I’m done,” You said harshly, getting up from the couch and going to the kitchen.

Maria followed you, “Mark would have wanted you to help us. To protect the town,” She pressed.

You groaned and began filling up a kettle with water from your water purifier next to the sink.

“Well Mark isn’t here,” You snapped back, placing the kettle on the stove and turning it on.

“I know you don’t want to do this. I know you have your reasons, but I promise you if you do this I’ll never put you on another patrol again. All of Jackson will be indebted to you.”

You couldn’t let Maria try to coax you into returning.. there was a reason you couldn’t do this anymore, a reason that didn’t relate to Mark’s death.

“I’m pregnant.” You stopped and looked at your friend.

Her eyes widened, she was silent, thinking of what there was possibly to say.

“I can’t do patrols anymore because I’m pregnant,” You repeated, your voice solemn.

“How long have you known?” She took a step closer to you. She would have to figure out a Plan B for the horde situation now, discuss with Tommy in the morning, talk to the council.

“Hours. Only a couple of hours.” You leaned against the counter, listening to the stove hum with heat. Maria was relieved to hear that, but you had still took a risk when you looked for Ellie.

“Are you going to keep it?” She asked, her face serious.

You nodded, biting your lip. You had already decided that, had it been a few weeks earlier your choice may have been different.. but you had already made up your mind now.

“Is it-” She began, you quickly cut her off.

“Mark’s,” You replied softly,, staring at the kettle.

“Well that’s a relief, I was afraid I was going to be an aunt,” She laughed dryly.

“I just.. I don’t know what I’m going to do. I’m not ready to raise a child, especially not without Mark around.. he would be better at this than I would,” You confessed, trying to blink away tears that snuck up on you.

Maria quickly pulled you into a hug. “I know, honey. I think parenting sneaks up on a lot of people,” She said soothingly. You let your tears fall onto her shoulder.

It was all terrifying.. the thought of a child being born into a world as cruel as this one. The thought you being a mother alone, without Mark there to guide you. He would have been thrilled to hear the news.. having a son or daughter.

“I don’t think I can do this alone,” You sobbed gently into her shoulder, your words getting caught in your throat.

“You won’t be alone, I promise you there are people here who will help you.” She rubbed your back gently. There were people there to help you, there was a doctor’s office with trained midwives, other single parents who would understand you, a daycare with teacher’s who would give your child an education, and most of all a family who would support you no matter what. You were foolish to think Maria would be anything less than supportive.

“This is starting to sound less and less daunting,” You laughed through the tears, pulling away from Maria.

“Well, we’ll discuss more in the morning then. It’s getting late and I know you start work early,” She said. You looked over at the window, if you fell asleep within the hour you would at least get some decent rest before work.

“You’re right. It is late. I hope you get the situation figured out with the teenagers.”

“I will. I’ll make sure to get it all sorted out.” She nodded, you followed her to the door, opening it for her.

“And, could you please not tell anyone about me being pregnant? I think I’d like to keep it as quiet as possible for awhile,” You asked, your voice wavering with a hint of nervousness in it. You already had enough to talk about with enough people, you didn’t need anything else on your plate for awhile.

“I won’t.”

“Thank you for saving Mark’s dog tags for me by the way,” You mentioned.

“I’m glad you found them,” She smiled.

•••

Ellie was beyond angry, disappointed and embarrassed. Not only had she been caught in bed with her girlfriend by her best friend, now they were both mad at her and at eachother. Maria had caught the group which was even more humiliating, being found by the head of Jackson half drunk and half high. Tonight was a wreck.

All she asked for was one night, one night where she could party and do dumb teenager things and worry about her actions later. She wanted to get away from Jackson and most importantly Joel.

She didn’t want to worry about Joel lying to her, beating around the bush around what truly happened in Salt Lake all those years ago. She needed to know the truth, and Joel would never give it to her. She needed to find it out for herself. Whether that be in a month or a year, or even ten. Ellie would find out the truth, and she knew whatever she found she would not like.

Joel would yell at her in the morning, he would tell her how stupid she was for doing that and give her, his most disappointed face he could muster. Joel needed to stay in his own lane now, Ellie wasn’t a little girl anymore who needed protecting.

But Maria or you would tell him regardless, in the morning she would be officially off of patrol for two months and on a curfew. She would have to apologize to both Dina and Cat and get them to stop arguing. She would have to listen to Joel be the disappointed father figure. She would have to eventually listen to you give her some half assed explanation of why you dodged her for three months.

Ellie Williams was tired of apologies and scoldings. Something she was awfully getting used to.

•••

#tlou 2 #tlou 2 x reader #the last of us #the last of us pt ii #the last of us part 2 #the last of us part ii #the last of us pt 2 #tlou #joel miller #joel miller x reader #joel x reader

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fmlfpl · 5 years

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Lineup Lamentations - GW29 - Alon Wildcard Edition

Our Transfers, Captains, and Starting 11s for the week.

LATE AS FUCK ALON ON WILDCARD EDITION... hopefully still interesting to read even if it’s this late. What do you think of Alon’s team???

WALSH

TRANSFERS:

OUT: Patrício and Jiménez

IN: Heaton and Callum Wilson

Operation fuck Wolves off to hell begins a week earlier than I had anticipated. Of course Rui is dropped because why wouldn't he be dropped the gobshite. I don't have enough in the bank to get any GK except for Boruc which feels like a potential disaster waiting to happen. Bego was bad but they've been bad lately so who knows if he keeps his place over the next handful of fixtures. Not a place I want to be... I don't really care about losing Jim this weekend since they are shit and I hate him. Getting rid of guys I hate to guys I don't hate will at least make me feel happy...I think. Gambling on Howe the liar here a bit, but I'll be benching Callum this weekend anyway and will just hope that he's on the bench which would position him well to start next GW at Huddy. This effectively kills any plan to get Higz in but so be it. I think this is my best play.

GK:

Heaton (CRY)

NOT RUI!!!!! YES! Tom unfortunately goes against my team but it's still a relatively decent on paper home fixture and they have had great underlying defensive stats since he came back into the team. And I love him. Go on Tom you beauty.

DEF:

Robertson (eve)

Robbo the hero is an easy start. Not much to say about the boy.

Lascelles (whu)

Jamaal has a bit of a tricky one away to Wet Spam but not really going to overthink it and roll him out while they are on song.

Wan-Bissaka (bur)

Finally, 1b is back baby and straight into my XI. Not a great fixture but fucking fuck me if you think I'm starting Bennett instead of him. Not going to happen ever again.

MID:

Salah & Mané (eve)

All my money still in mid on display this weekend. Mo and Mane remain and it's silly to expect anything other than Livp completely doing Everton on Sunday. Maybe they will score 5 and Mo won't blank. Would be novel.

Son (ARS)

Private corporal Suon is a lad I will remain patient with. Don't know what to expect in the NLD but he's still a quality player and can bang in any game. Not expecting a ton but he still feels fine.

Pogba (SOU)

Paul has a home banker and should be good for some points.

Sterling (bou)

Finally, Raz goes to his favorite place on earth, Bournemouth in what should be a bloodbath. Raz has low key started 1 game in the last 4 gameweeks so...he owes us.

FWD:

Rondón (whu) & Barnes (CRY)

Running out big Sal and Smashley this weekend. Was originally planning to bench Barnes for Jim but the transfers forced my hand. Not expecting loads from these two this weekend but the fixtures aren't diabolical so who knows. Seems fine.

BENCH:

Bennett (CAR)

Wilson (mci)

Chambo (lol)

CAP:

Sterling (bou)

Raz obv. Rested and ready to fuck. Go get 'em Razzybaby.

ALON

TRANSFERS:

A MILLION TRANSFERS VIA WILDCARD

GK:

Heaton (CRY)

I went with Tom... Was on Alisson for a lot of tinkering, was on Ederson for a bit of tinkering, and eventually it came down to Dubravka and Boruc vs. Tom and Guaita and I went with the latter.. the fixtures in my opinion and underlying stats for Burnley (Burnley 4th in NPxGA since Heaton returned and Newc are for 15th in same period), are both a lot better then Newcastle, and Burnley 100% don’t blank in GW33 like Dubravka might do... Also I love the synergy with Guaita where A. I will bench Tom in GW30 when he goes to Anfield and Guaita is home to Brighton in their derby, and B. if Palace beat Watford in the cup then Palace will have a double in GW35 and that will be nice for me to have a doubling GK without having to make a transfer for it!

For this week Palace have been buozzin around a bit scoring some goals with Bats in and Wilf back to his old ways but I’m hoping at home Burnley can maybe do a job or at least rack up saves.

DEF:

Trent & Matip (eve)

Made sure that I was at least doubling up Liverpool defense and here we are now, entertain us... I don’t think that Trent needs any sort of WC explaining at all so skipping the scouse legend and onto the very under the radar Matip... Very quietly Matip has started 6 straight in the league (more if you include other comps) and is looking good in a partnership with VVD. He’s even looking dangerous on some set plays and some runs forward (like that dribble vs. Man. United)!... As for Gomez Klopp said the earliest he would come back is after the intl. break which would be GW32 when I’m FHing anyway, and Lovren should be back to training after this GW but I do not think that Matip will just straight up get dropped for no reason to go back to Lovren with this long of a spell out for Lovern and in for Joel... If I do need to get rid of Joel in GW33 or GW34 or GW35 then I will either go to the Liverpool CB who took his place or I will go to a defender who doubles in GW35 and both of those things are very easy to do.

Love the Joel pick and can’t wait for him to score vs. Everton to really hammer home how good a pick he is. Double Liv defensively every week is fantastic and in the derby it’s no different.

Luiz (ful)

This spot (let’s be honest, every spot) was also back and forth between different guys... A little Chilwell a little bit of this a little bit of that I don’t know... Settled on Luiz who we shouted on pod as simply just a really good pick for the rest of the season. In GW34 Chelsea are at Anfield and in GW36 they are at Old Trafford and every other match (and they don’t blank) is a good cleanable fixture. Luiz is a very solid pick and I’m happy to be on board there.

This week they get to go fuck Fulham sideways... Maybe new manager bounce will Fulham dudes titting and totting at Craven Cottage but meh, if Chelsea can just pay attention for 90′ they should keep an easy clean and destroy Fulham.

Lejeune (whu)

And Lejeune one of four dudes to actually stay in my team from the pre-wildcard lineup and that’s because he does a great job and has pretty decent fixtures and might not blank in GW33, does not blank in GW31.

Not the best of fixtures this week away to Hammers but they are still pretty damn injured and they are a bit outta form, West Ham... I’m hoping Newc can keep their good defensive form up and put in another cleanie. I’m starting Lejeune over Brooks (who may not start and has City) so hopefully it pays off. Go on Newc.

MID:

Salah (eve)

Easy Mo, I think ya gotta keep him in the end even with the derby usually being scrappy and low scoring I still think Mo is just a great pick with the fixture run and will repay the faith as he always does eventually... And one other thing we didn’t mention on pod that I was talking about all day on Slack and other pods backed me up is that despite a Mo blanking on a 5 goal day for Liverpool - he was fucking brilliant. Had an absolutely terrific match in progressing the ball, buildup, taking on their shitty LB, hockey assists, he hit the post, all that shit... Just not FPL stuff. Hopefully can build on the uptick of form and take his chances this time.

Sterling (bou)

Raz back was one of the key cogs on why or why not I was gonna WC and here we are. Raz the fuck in. Rested last week should be straight back into starting 11 this week and flying as per usual against garbage ass Bourney.

Pogba (SOU)

Kept Paul as well. Mainly because of this fixture this week, phenomenal fixture. And then I’ll start figuring out how and when to deal with him and his blanks... in my plans right now it will be Paul and Kun out for Haz and Higs on GW31 but we’ll see.

FWD:

Aguero (bou)

Kun in I mean. How could I not get Kun....??!??!? Yeah he might get rested this week but it’s still Bourney so 30ish minutes is still very much on for points for him and then next week on a full week rest he has home Watford and is the by far standout captain for that. The form and sex appeal are too much to ignore for me.

Barnes (CRY)

Template guy, non-blanker, extremely good numbers, mostly good fixtures. Not much thinking here.

Palace are tough and get AWB back but they’ll still be starting some fuck face next to Tomkins whether it’s Kelly or Dann to exploit. Not the same tight ship as before.

Rondón (whu)

Another big template bandwagonny guy he’s just good and also mostly has good fixtures. No blank in GW31 and maybe a blank in GW33 but NBD if he does I have plenty of guys. It’s gonna be great.

West Ham’s defense is diabolical so I’m hoping they continue to be themselves and Sal pops off. But Newc away vs. Newc home is a very different kettle of fish so we’ll have to see what’s up.

BENCH:

Brooks (MCI)

I like Brooksy a lot and 5.0 is an absolute joke of a price... Even though he rides the pine this week, Bournemouth have the best fixtures from GW30 through the end of the season of any team in the league. Absurd run and Brooks will hopefully keep titting in there.

McNeil (CRY)

Despite getting subbed early last week - for a cheap 5th mid spot who doesn’t blank in 31 or 33 McNeil is still by far the best from where I’m sitting... He’s been bright and should keep getting chances to make stuff happen. Good kid.

Schindler (BHA)

Piece of shit gets to stay in my team... That’s just the way the cookie crumbles........ Schindy is the cheapest nailed guy who doesn’t blank in GW31 or GW33. That’s it. Just cheap, just nailed, and otherwise a bad pick. There is literally nothing else that you need to know about Schindy and Huddy.

And backup keeper Guaita (bur)

Like I wrote in the Tom section he fits really well with Heaton so I’m very happy to combine the two there. And he’s still dirt cheap... Even though Palace defense should be slightly worse with no Mama it’s still pretty good and definitely capable of getting some cleans with the way Woy sets’em up so, yeah, ok, get in there. Back on the Guaita train...

CAP:

Sterling (bou)

Easy Raz easy life. This should be a thrashing and Raz should be nailed for this week. Didn’t really consider anybody ahead of Raz.

#FML FPL #FMLFPL #FPL #Fantasy Premier League #Wildcard #Lineup Lamentations

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junker-town · 6 years

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Why nobody stopped the Warriors from signing DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins’ market barely existed, and there’s a reason why.

DeMarcus Cousins is a member of the Golden State Warriors, all for the cheap price of one year and $5.3 million. One hundred and ninety two players made more than $5.3 million last season. None of them averaged 25 points and 13 rebounds per game.

Naturally, this has spurned all sorts of jealousy from anyone who follows the league. What is the point of competing when the Warriors can just sign All-Stars like Boogie for that little money? Why do the rich need to get richer? Wasn’t there some way to stop the Warriors from continuing to amass an embarrassment of riches?

Apparently not. The market for Cousins’ services barely existed, and may not have existed at all. Cousins himself said there were no offers, which was disputed by the New Orleans Times Picayune. The Celtics were reportedly the runner-up for Cousins, but they might not have actually made an offer, either. It seems hard to believe on the surface. Nobody wanted DeMarcus Cousins? Really?

But dig into Cousins’ unique situation, and there’s a reason that market didn’t exist.

For starters ... he ruptured his Achilles!

That’s a big deal! The Achilles injury is the worst one you can suffer, and most players are never the same.

Even if Cousins recovers perfectly from that injury, it’ll take him until well into next season to do so. Most teams don’t have the luxury to invest a lot of money into a player and wait that long without any certainty that he’ll be the same player.

We simply cannot downplay the injury. If he had injured any other body part, he likely has more of a market.

Even before the injury, how valuable is Cousins?

It’s a worthwhile question to ask. We know Cousins puts up huge numbers, but he’s never made the playoffs in his career and has a crushing number of bad on-court habits that hurt his teams. He’s not always in shape, his defensive effort comes and goes, he turns the ball over a ton, and he’s prone to losing his cool at the worst possible time.

Cousins has played on one above-.500 team in his career: last season. Before Cousins’ injury, the Pelicans were 27-22 and outscored teams by an average of 1.2 points per 100 possessions. After Cousins’ injury, they went 21-13 while outscoring teams by 3.1 points per 100 possessions. Then, they swept Portland in the first round of the playoffs, with Anthony Davis dominating.

There are mitigating factors — most notably, the addition of Nikola Mirotic at the trade deadline — but the fact is that New Orleans was better without Cousins than with him in about the same number of games.

That, plus Cousins’ reputation as a difficult player to coach (to put it charitably), blunted his value around the league even before he ruptured his Achilles.

OK, I get all that. But still, nobody offered more than $5.3 million to Boogie Cousins? Surely his talent alone is worth much more than that

In an ordinary market, perhaps. But this summer is no ordinary market. Blame the 2016 cap spike for shrinking the available money for teams to spend.

Let’s walk through this step by step.

Who could have conceivably offered Cousins a maximum contract?

In alphabetical order: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, the Lakers, and Philadelphia. Sacramento and Phoenix had a little less than the max to offer, while Utah, Indiana, and the Clippers (in a very elaborate scenario only) could have found max cap space if they gave up on retaining key players from last season.

None of those teams had much reason to want to spend that space on Cousins.

Atlanta and Chicago aren’t interested in competing now.

The 76ers don’t need Cousins with Joel Embiid.

Phoenix just drafted DeAndre Ayton.

Dallas chose to use that space on DeAndre Jordan instead.

Indiana and Utah understandably kept the band together.

The Clippers had to jump through too many hoops to put themselves in the mix.

Sacramento ... lol.

We’ll come back to the Lakers.

Once Dallas went after Jordan, that max offer wasn’t ever coming from someone else.

What about the Pelicans? Can’t they exceed the cap to keep Cousins?

They could have, yes. Before free agency began, my colleague Kristian Winfield argued for them to bite the bullet and max out Cousins despite all these concerns.

But consider the massive risk they’d have taken on if they had done so. Such a move would have put the small-market Pelicans up against the luxury tax, making any subsequent move difficult. If the contract was for multiple years, it’d vaporize any salary-cap flexibility to improve the roster as they enter a critical period in Davis’ career.

Would you take on that risk for a big man coming off the worst injury in sports, especially when the team was better last season after his injury? You can understand why they didn’t, especially when the more cost-effective option of acquiring Julius Randle instead fell into their lap.

So with them out and all these max slots out, who could pay Cousins?

There were a few teams that lacked cap space that might have been interested in Cousins sign-and-trade scenarios. Two that immediately spring to mind: the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards. Portland reportedly held exploratory talks, and the Wizards are a logical destination because of Cousins’ relationship with John Wall.

But sign-and-trades have become increasingly difficult since the higher luxury-tax penalties were installed after the 2011 lockout. Teams that exceed the luxury tax by more than $6 million — this is known as “the apron” — are not allowed to add players via sign-and-trade. In effect, the second a team executes a sign-and-trade, they have a hard cap of $129 million and can’t do anything to exceed that.

The Wizards and Trail Blazers are right up against the luxury tax as is, so they run the risk of approaching that hard cap. For a sign-and-trade to remotely have a chance, the Pelicans would need to take back equal (and maybe even more) salary. That’s asking a lot because they, too, are seeking to avoid the luxury tax.

There were technically ways for the Wizards to make a sign-and-trade work financially, but they were incredibly complicated even before deciding whether the value was actually worth it for both sides. Bullets Forever explained this in more detail here.

The same logic applies to Portland, with another unique complication as well.

ESPN Sources: Portland and New Orleans had discussed the possibility of a sign-and-trade for DeMarcus Cousins, but a road block existed since he shares the same agent as RFA Jusuf Nurkic.

— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) July 3, 2018

Bottom line: saying “What about a sign-and-trade?” is like saying “We need to get a third team involved to make this trade happen.” It’s technically possible, but it’s also so difficult that you’re clearly grasping at straws.

OK, fine. But my team surely could have offered Cousins the same thing or more, right?

Not really. Without cap space to spend and without viable sign-and-trade scenarios, most teams really couldn’t offer more than that $5.3 million.

Remember: every team gets access to one type of mid-level exception:

Teams that use cap room get the Room Mid-Level Exception, which starts at $4.4 million.

Teams that will be over the luxury tax get that $5.3 million Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception.

Teams over the salary cap, but under the luxury tax, get the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception starting at $8.6 million. But just like with sign-and-trades, using this means that your team salary cannot exceed $129 million under any circumstances.

Only a handful of teams could have conceivably used the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception without approaching the luxury tax. That list: Cleveland, the Clippers, Memphis, New York, Orlando, San Antonio, and Utah. It’s hard to see any of those situations appealing to Cousins, though it’d have been hilarious to watch Gregg Popovich coach him.

That left a handful of teams that only had the $5.3 million Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception to offer. Those leftover teams:

Boston

Charlotte

Denver

Detroit

Houston

Miami

Milwaukee

Minnesota

Oklahoma City

Portland

Toronto

Washington

And, of course, Golden State

None of those teams are winning a free-agent pitch battle over the Warriors if they have the same money to offer. Considering the circumstances, of course Cousins chose the Warriors over anyone else.

Let’s circle back to the Lakers

This is the one team that might be kicking themselves. They are the only team that a) could have given Cousins a richer offer than the Warriors did and b) had some reason to do so.

In the 24 hours after getting LeBron James, the Lakers used cap space to nab Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for $12 million and Rajon Rondo for $9 million. (They used the Room Mid-Level Exception on Lance Stephenson and a minimum contract on JaVale McGee, which they could have done regardless of other moves). Even after those two signings, they could have renounced Randle’s rights (which they did) and used the Stretch provision on Luol Deng to open up around $18-20 million in cap space for Cousins.

Would Cousins have taken a one-year, $18 million offer to join the Lakers over a deal for a third of that amount to join Golden State? Would it have made more sense to give Cousins the combined $21 million that was spent on Rondo and Caldwell-Pope? These possibilities might have been a reasonable gamble while keeping the cap sheet open for next year.

Alas, we’ll never know if Cousins would have accepted or even if such an offer was considered. Maybe the Lakers’ odd locker room couldn’t afford to take on Cousins as well. Maybe LeBron wanted players who were guaranteed to be ready by opening night.

But I can at least understand Lakers fans who are annoyed about this missed opportunity. Everyone else, though, needs to consider the full context before getting mad that their team let Cousins walk to the two-time defending champs.

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flauntpage · 5 years

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Recapping the Sixers’ Wild Free Agency

Free agency is the most manic, drama-filled period on the NBA calendar. And this year certainly didn’t disappoint in both its overall activity and potential paradigm shifting. Brooklyn is now the center of the basketball world in New York. The Knicks had the summer of nightmares. The Jazz are looking like legitimate contenders in the West. And the Celtics didn’t have the dream offseason they thought they’d have (lol).

Oh, and we still don’t even have a decision from a certain Kawhi Leonard. If you haven’t heard, he’s pretty good at basketball.

The Sixers found themselves in the middle of all this. Everyone knew what was at stake this time around. Three-fifths of a starting lineup that was quite possibly a quadruple doink away from the Eastern Conference Finals was on the open market. And it was going to take much more than a couple Benjamins to ensure that Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick all returned.

I personally was all for running it back. For one, it’s not my money. Plus, we all saw what an Embiid / Simmons / Butler / Redick / Harris lineup was capable of doing in the 21 combined regular season and playoff games they played in. They were starting to build some serious chemistry towards the end there, and who knows what they could accomplish in a full season together.

What transpired was yet another re-haul of the lineup which actually improved the overall outlook of this team.

Let’s recap to this point, after the jump:

JJ Heads South

Free agent guard JJ Redick has agreed to a two-year, $26.5M deal to join the New Orleans Pelicans, league sources tell ESPN.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 30, 2019

Not an ideal start to the evening!

Losing a guy like JJ is tough. Defensive shortcomings and age aside, there were times throughout the season when he looked like the 2nd option on offense. The dribble hand-offs he ran with Joel were some of the most effective actions they ran all year. He is still a very lethal shooter, and had the highest scoring season of his career at the age of 34 (18.1 PPG).

It’ll be interesting to see how Elton Brand goes about addressing the hole he leaves in the Sixers’ perimeter game. Their spacing will not be the same.

Tobi Decides to Run it Back (x5)

Free agent forward Tobias Harris has agreed to a five-year, $180M contract to return to the Philadelphia 76ers, his agent and father, Torrel Harris of Unique Sports Management, tells ESPN.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 30, 2019

This was a no-brainer. If Jimmy was all but gone (we’ll get to that in a little), locking up Tobias long-term was Elton’s top priority, and he got it done.

A lot of people aren’t fans of this deal, and it’s understandable. It’s a lot of money committed to a guy many consider to be a “borderline All-Star” who has also played for five different teams in his eight-year career. But the Sixers almost had no choice but to ensure that he re-signed given how much they gave up for him (chiefly Landry Shamet, two 1st-round picks, and two 2nd-round picks).

With that being said, I think a full year with this team will serve Tobias much better. He had to be relegated to the 3rd or 4th option a good majority of last season with Jimmy and JJ in the starting lineup. With their departures, Tobias will be relied upon a whole lot more to provide some instant offense. Yeah, his shooting from deep dipped after the trade, but he still shot just under 40% from long-range. He can still effectively create his own shot, is a good ball-handler, and can back down shorter defenders.

Plus, I just think Tobias finally having some long-term stability will do wonders for his productivity. He’s only 26, and is right there on the Ben and Joel timeline.

The Mike Scott Hive Lives On

Sources: Free agent Mike Scott has agreed to a two-year, $9.8M deal to return to the Philadelphia 76ers.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 30, 2019

This one made a lot of people (including myself) extremely happy. Mike Scott has firmly entrenched himself in this city and its culture, so seeing him come back, especially after him expressing his desire to do so in his exit interview, is awesome.

Memes aside, he’s going to be a key guy off the bench as additional depth at the four. He can be streaky at times as a shooter, but he still shot 41% from three following his arrival from the Clippers. Plus, he’s the guy you want on your side when things get testy.

Mike Scott Hive stand up!

Out Goes Jimmy, In Comes Josh

Sources: Philadelphia has signed-and-traded Jimmy Butler to Miami, with Heat sending Josh Richardson to the 76ers.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) July 1, 2019

I can’t lie, this threw me for a loop. Call me naive, but when you think about everything we heard about Jimmy being a virtual lock to return if the 5-year max was on the table, which it turns out it was, I was convinced they were running it back with him.

But it wasn’t meant to be, and Jimmy is now in South Beach.

To be clear, I don’t hate the guy. I’ll never hate him. He made a clear lifestyle choice, and I don’t think anyone can fault him for that. I’m only upset at him trying to portray himself as being the “realest out there” and “all about winning”, only to make a move like this. That’s my only criticism.

Basketball-wise, it’s obviously another tough loss. Jimmy was far from a perfect fit, but he was a guy this team could turn to in tough situations. It’s going to be hard to replace both his late-game and defensive chops.

Getting Josh Richardson in return, though, is huge. Not only is he probably a more seamless fit than Butler, he’s someone the fans are going to love. He plays tough perimeter defense, can knock down shots from deep, and can serve as a secondary creator on offense.

And to top it all off, he’s on a very team-friendly contract. The Sixers have him locked up through 2021 and will only have paid him around $21 million to that point, providing even more financial flexibility. So overall, it’s very good compensation for losing Jimmy.

Average Al Comes Aboard

Five-time All-Star F/C Al Horford has agreed to a four-year, $109M deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, agent Jason Glushon tells ESPN.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) July 1, 2019

I despise all things Boston, and Horford, like many other Sixers fans, caught the brunt of my ire. He was by far Joel’s biggest kryptonite the last two years or so, and now he joins forces with the same guy he frustrated for so long.

Horford is the present-day Shane Battier: very good, not great, at a lot of things, doesn’t post gaudy numbers, but makes all the right plays. He’s the ultimate glue-guy, someone who would bore the casual fan. He was integral to the Celtics’ success thanks to his smart play, smart defense, and good shooting.

He makes for an interesting fit. Him and Joel are going to wreak havoc in the front court on defense. He’ll help to further space the floor, and he will provide another trustworthy option as both a down low presence and a playmaker. His occupying virtually the same space as Joel is worrying, but they should work that out.

There are some legitimate concerns. His contract has the potential to age very poorly. Horford is 33, and despite still being a very effective player, is bound to decline at some point. The Sixers are going to be paying him over $26 million by the time he’s 36, and who knows how productive he’ll be by then.

Despite these worries, he’s going to fit fine, and most importantly, he’s going to be an excellent locker room presence for this team. He’s a true leader and is a seasoned playoff vet (every team he’s played on in his 12 seasons in the league has made the playoffs). Joel’s development as well as Ben’s development are going to benefit greatly from him.

It also gives us all another thing to troll Boston about.

Filling in the Gaps

The Sixers are signing Kyle O'Quinn, I'm told.

— Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) July 2, 2019

O’Quinn is a very solid pick-up to solidify the Sixers’ 2nd unit. The Sixers were rumored to have been interested in him last offseason, but he ultimately signed with the Indiana Pacers. He’s a bruising big who can get at it down low and is a good rebounder. He can provide insurance for both Joel and Al Horford as essentially the third-string center.

Free agent James Ennis has agreed to a two-year, $4.1M deal to return to Philadelphia, with second-year player option, league sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium. Ennis turned down more salary from multiple teams to return to a championship contender.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) July 2, 2019

Another great move by Elton. Ennis was a major contributor for the Sixers off the bench in the playoffs, and being able to retain him at a discount was huge.

Ennis’s ability to knock down open shots along with his defensive versatility were invaluable during the Sixers’ playoff run, and they now keep him in the fold for at least another year. Keeping some financial flexibility in the process helps as well.

Also, to think that the Sixers have now become a destination for ring-chasers is insane.

The Sixers are signing Shake Milton to a four-year contract using their remaining salary-cap room, I am told.

— Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) July 2, 2019

I’m really excited to see what Shake has to offer in a slightly bigger role this season. He showed flashes of great potential in the minutes he did get in the regular season. He can handle the ball, shoot a little, and is a solid passer. His defense will need some improvement, but he has the length and size to be a good defender. He’s going to compete for backup point guard minutes depending on who else the Sixers bring on.

I’m also so ready to watch him tear up the Summer League.

(also, Kevin wrote about Raul Neto this morning)

What’s the Overall Outlook?

After letting the dust settle from all the madness of the last few days, and you get a chance to look at this team, it could very much be better than last year. They have the potential to be an absolute juggernaut on defense and on the boards. The amount of length and sheer size of the roster is crazy. Consider this:

The wingspan rundown:

Zhaire: 6-10 Richardson: 6-10 Ennis: 6-11 Scott: 6-11 Tobias: 6-11 Simmons: 7-0 Thybulle: 7-0 Shake: 7-0 Shayok: 7-0 Horford: 7-1 Bolden: 7-3 KOQ: 7-5 Embiid: 7-5

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) July 2, 2019

That’s preposterous. Zhaire Smith and Josh Richardson are tied for the shortest wingspan at 6’10”. They’re just stacked with dynamic, switchable defenders who are going to wreak havoc on lesser teams.

The offensive side of the ball potentially has a lot more questions. For one, they obviously lack a true lock-down shooter with JJ’s departure. Plus, with Jimmy no longer in the fold, they’re down not only a reliable ball-handler, but a guy they can turn to in crunch-time.

Additionally, the guys who look to be the top options off the bench are very young. Matisse Thybulle is a rookie, Zhaire Smith essentially red-shirted last season, and Shake spent a majority of last season in the G-League. I don’t see it being that much of an issue, but it’s something to keep in mind.

I think they’ll ultimately work out all the kinks in their lineup. Everyone they have is a competent-enough shooter to at the very least get them by. Plus, they still have plenty of offensive weapons to be dynamic on that end of the floor. Joel is still a beast, Ben is only getting better, and Tobias looks primed to have a great year. I’d expect them to try and add either another shooter or a legitimate backup point guard via free agency or a trade in the coming weeks to solidify their depth.

Fans should be extremely excited about this squad. They look primed to be one of the Eastern Conference top dogs not only this coming year, but for the foreseeable future.

The post Recapping the Sixers’ Wild Free Agency appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Recapping the Sixers’ Wild Free Agency published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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jodyedgarus · 5 years

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The NBA Playoffs Are Here. And We Have Thoughts.

neil (Neil Paine, senior sportswriter): Now that every NBA team has played Game 82 of the regular season, we can finally get to the real business at hand: The playoffs. Let’s start with the Eastern Conference, where the Milwaukee Bucks earned the franchise’s first top seed since the league adopted the 16-team playoff format in 1984.

What do we think about the big picture in the East? The No. 1 Bucks and No. 2 Raptors were the most dominant during the regular season, but seeds 3 and 4 (Philadelphia and Boston) have as much talent as anybody in the conference on paper. Who do you think should have the edge and why?

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I’m going to go ahead and agree with our algorithm that there’s a big gap between the top two (Milwaukee and Toronto) and No. 3 and 4 (Philly and Boston). Milwaukee and Toronto were a LOT better in the regular season. I agree that Philly might have as much talent on paper, but they didn’t really get it together. I’m not sure you can say that about Boston, especially with Marcus Smart out.

chris.herring (Chris Herring, senior sportswriter): Yeah. I spent some time around the Sixers over the past week, and Brett Brown admits what Nate just said: That the Sixers have an enormous amount of talent on paper, but he almost would’ve preferred to have less rest if it meant having more cohesion with that group.

The Marcus Smart injury could end up being really problematic for the Celtics for a couple reasons, too — we don’t know exactly how much time he’ll miss, but it could even be a bad sign in this series vs. Indiana.

Smart would have been the guy guarding Bojan Bogdanovic, who’s essentially taken over as the Pacers’ top gun since Victor Oladipo went down with injury.

Bogdanovic struggled against Smart all season, and his worst numbers of the year were against Boston because of it. But now, I assume they’ll go to Jaylen Brown to defend him, and that hasn’t worked well at all in those instances.

tchow (Tony Chow, video producer): Our predictions give the Celtics a 79 percent chance to advance. Even with the Oladipo injury for the Pacers, that still seems … high?

chris.herring: Probably a little high, yeah. Especially now, without Smart.

natesilver: I mean, I think people tend to underestimate how little luck there is in a seven-game series. The better team tends to win out, especially if it has home-court advantage.

chris.herring: I tend to think the Pacers are The Little Engine That Could. They play very hard … but that will probably only get them so far.

natesilver: For what it’s worth, our algorithm is giving Boston some credit for being more talented “on paper” than they played like during the regular season. Jayson Tatum is probably a better player going forward than what he showed this season, for instance. Gordon Hayward is obviously in a different category, but maybe him, too. Boston also had the point differential that you’d associate with a 52-win team instead of a 49-win team, which is not huge, but it’s something.

chris.herring: Yeah. Hayward has come on really nicely as of late, including a 9-of-9 game vs. Indiana last week. If he’s getting back to his old self, it could be tough for Indiana.

natesilver: It does seem, though, that it’s a team with only one real star-level talent right now, and Kyrie Irving seems pretty checked out. That’s subjective, I know, but they have a pretty big hill to climb — having to win three road series against three VERY good teams (likely Milwaukee, Toronto and Golden State, in that order) even if they get past Indiana.

chris.herring: I’ll be honest: I’m not very amped about the East’s first round at all. But that second round will probably be eons better than the West’s conference final.

neil: Yeah, it sounds from this like Boston-Indiana is the first-round series that has caught your attention the most. But that might be by default.

chris.herring: I think Philly-Brooklyn could be somewhat interesting. It doesn’t sound like an absolute given that Joel Embiid will play Game 1. The Nets are essentially playing with house money, and though they’ve struggled as of late, they had a harder end-of-season schedule than the other teams fighting their way into the playoffs.

natesilver: The Nets are kind of a buzzy team. But Philly, maybe in contrast to a Marcus Smart-less Boston, has enough talent that maybe they can be slightly subpar and still win fairly easily.

chris.herring: Yeah. I don’t expect much from Brooklyn, but I could see them making things interesting because of the limited time the Sixers have had together. Other than that — and some slight interest in how Boston looks without Smart/what it means for Indiana — I wish I could just simulate the East’s first round like a video game or something

neil: Haha. Let’s just play it out in NBA 2K.

chris.herring: Maybe that isn’t fair to Orlando, though. They’ve been good for a decent amount of time now.

neil: They’ve been on fire (11-2) since mid-March.

chris.herring: I just feel like it ultimately won’t matter against a club like Toronto.

natesilver: I also think Philly has more flip-the-switch potential than Boston. Maybe Jimmy Butler accepts his role as what’s essentially a third fiddle on offense and plays dominant defense and starts hitting 3s again. Maybe they treat the playoffs as a fun eight-week road trip instead of worrying too much about how the team is constructed in the future.

tchow: Just tell me what needs to happen to get Sixers vs. Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals.

neil: Well, the Raptors would have to lose in the second round AGAIN. How soul crushing would that be for that franchise? This was sorta supposed to be their year after LeBron left the East. (Especially after adding Kawhi Leonard.)

chris.herring: I don’t know how I feel yet about the Sixers-Raptors series, assuming it happens. But I think the Bucks should be favored against everyone, honestly. I think everybody has downplayed them, even as they’ve had this unbelievable season, with the likely MVP and coach of the year.

natesilver: The Raptors somehow won 58 games with Kawhi only playing 60. That’s seriously impressive.

chris.herring: I don’t know if it’s a small-market thing. Or if it’s just that people seem to be a year late on everything. It is impressive!

At the same time, they won 59 last year without him. So I’m more impressed by the Bucks essentially having the same cast and transforming into what they are now. I don’t know. Maybe it’s simply Milwaukee’s newness that I’m taken by.

neil: Are we also maybe holding Toronto’s playoff track record against them? (Even if it’s a relatively new version of that team this season?)

chris.herring: Nah. I’m not. Kawhi is such a different player than DeMar DeRozan, who had a game that didn’t translate all that well to postseason. Also, Pascal Siakam has improved by leaps and bounds. You could ignore him before on defense, and now that’s tantamount to having a death wish.

natesilver: They also have one of the two real stars in the East that’s won a ring before (Kawhi, with Kyrie being the other). Which I know sounds like boilerplate sports radio talk, but our research has found that playoff experience is actually fairly predictive.

chris.herring: I think Toronto fans have wanted to believe their team was different for a couple years now. Almost like that “Shawshank Redemption” scene where Red keeps going to the parole hearing and saying he’s a changed man, ready to rejoin society. But this time, the Raptors are different. Kawhi alone would have made them that way, but Siakam is a different player. As is Lowry, who hasn’t quite looked himself at all times. But has the experience, and has a better roster around him.

natesilver: Our algorithm also thinks that all six of their top rotation guys are above-average defensively. So that’s likely to keep them in every game unless they get mentally checked out.

Which, I don’t know. I wouldn’t totally rule out the possibility that they take a rough loss in a Game 1 or 2 somewhere and start panicking, and Kawhi starts thinking about how nice the Clippers could look next year with him in L.A.

But on balance, I think I’m on the side that says people are reading too much into the Raptors’ past playoff failures. It’s a different team this year, and there’s no LeBron.

chris.herring: Like the Munchkins when they realize the Wicked Witch is dead. Why do I keep using these movie references? What is wrong with me?

neil: LOL.

tchow: As of right now though, our model actually favors Toronto (slightly) over the Bucks to make the Finals (46 percent vs. 42 percent). Toronto fans have to be happy to see that.

neil: Do you guys agree?

natesilver: Yeah, that surprised me a bit. But Toronto has more playoff experience and Milwaukee has some injury issues.

tchow: I guess it’ll go a long way in the “playoff experience” argument to see how far a team like the Bucks go this year after that seven-game series last season against Boston. I have a hard time betting against them in the East though.

natesilver: On the flip side, Giannis Antetokounmpo is presumably going to start playing 37-38 minutes a game now after only playing 32.8 minutes in the regular season. That actually makes a pretty big difference.

chris.herring: That surprises me, but only a little. Their records aren’t that far off. The Raptors have played Kawhi a lot fewer games than Giannis.

What I do think will be key at some point, which we haven’t talked about yet, is the Bucks’ need to get back to full strength. They’ve been without Malcolm Brogdon, and Tony Snell has missed time, too. It doesn’t matter in a round 1 matchup. But it comes into play in a very big way in the following two rounds, should they get that far.

natesilver: I do wonder if Milwaukee’s whole floor spacing thing will work slightly less well in the playoffs. If you can contain Giannis — obviously not at all easy — there really isn’t a second iso-ball scorer on the whole roster. Maybe Eric Bledsoe, I guess.

chris.herring: I just don’t know how it’s done

natesilver: Containing Giannis you mean?

chris.herring: Before, there wasn’t much trust or belief. But now, you kind of either have to help in the paint against him, or leave open someone like Brook Lopez, who will gladly shoot a triple.

There were screenshots last postseason of four Celtics standing in the paint at one time to stop him, because Milwaukee wasn’t trained to score outside of his drives to the basket.

Now, even Giannis will pull 3s every now and then, just to keep defenses honest. Bledsoe’s had a nice year. Lopez is there, but wasn’t before.

@JonAriasRadio agree Giannis needed to play better but the below image is why he struggled to get more shots off. Spacing. Brogdon sitting in the corner makes a world of difference. Instead you have Bazz and Jabari collapsing the lane. pic.twitter.com/VXdYo7oYiE

— WiscoScoot (@WiscoScoot) April 25, 2018

natesilver: I guess I’m saying a team like Toronto that is quick (at least with certain lineups) and can switch a lot, maybe they can contest that Lopez 3.

Or get a few steals when the Bucks telegraph their intentions too much.

tchow: Nikola Mirotic also may be back in time for Game 1. So yeah, the Bucks will have shooters.

neil: And for what it’s worth (maybe something?), Milwaukee beat Toronto in three of their four regular season matchups. Those games were also before all the little upgrades Milwaukee made around the trade deadline. But we’ll have to see how the Bucks look at full strength and if they and the Raptors can even make it all the way to the Conference Finals to face each other.

Let’s move on to the West, where — here’s a surprise — the Golden State Warriors are the No. 1 seed, for the fourth time in five years. Our model currently gives the Warriors a commanding 78 percent chance of winning the conference (and a 60 percent chance of winning the NBA title). On the one hand, that is amazingly high, but does it sound right to you guys?

natesilver: The West playoffs feel a lot less climactic to me now that the Rockets wound up on the same side of the bracket as Golden State.

chris.herring: It sounds about right to me. The one side of the West bracket is the equivalent of Michigan State and Duke being in the same region.

natesilver: Utah is also a pretty rough first-round matchup for Houston. Rudy Gobert is going to make it much harder for James Harden to get to the rim.

neil: Well, Chris, we were talking the other day this idea that the Rockets may have actually wanted the No. 4 seed so that they’d face the Warriors sooner. Can you explain a little about what you meant there?

chris.herring: I fully believe the Rockets may be happy with this setup. At this point, they’re probably of the opinion that they can beat anyone other than GSW (and maybe them, too).

Utah isn’t a pushover at all. It’s kind of an amazing first-round matchup that, in most years would be at least a second-round matchup, and in a post-Warriors universe, maybe even a conference finals.

But that said, Houston beat Utah last year. And they did it by neutralizing what the Jazz do best: Take away threes and the rim. They forced the Rockets to take midrange shots, which they basically view as evil. But the Rockets did that — Chris Paul is a midrange specialist and went off for 40 points one game — and were able to win. So if the Rockets can get by Utah again, having the Warriors in round 2 instead of the Western Conference finals might be beneficial. Just so Paul and Harden aren’t exhausted or injured like they were by round 3 last season, when they played the Warriors.

natesilver: Yeah, I think Chris Paul is key in that series. Utah’s pretty optimally designed to curb Harden as much as you can curb him, but CP3 is a big problem for them.

natesilver: Overall, though, I think if I’m Houston, I’d rather have a hope-and-a-prayer that someone else knocks Golden State out before they reach the finals. Or that someone on the Warriors gets hurt.

chris.herring: Yeah. They’d never admit it out loud, but the potential theory that they want GSW early is fascinating to me. If your line of thought is that you’re almost certainly gonna have to go through them anyway, might as well do it before you’re too spent to have a chance.

neil: Right, because fatigue seemed like a big issue for them by the Western Conference finals last year.

chris.herring: Golden State doesn’t fear anyone, but I think they would privately acknowledge that they see Houston as the only team that, in optimal circumstances, could beat them

natesilver: It could make the Western Conference finals pretty boring though. Our model says there’s a 93 percent chance the Warriors win the WCF (!) conditional on reaching them.

chris.herring: Yeah. That’s why I keep saying the semifinals are gonna be the best round this year. Especially if Houston-Golden State is the matchup, along with those East series.

tchow: Hey kudos to Oklahoma City for avoiding Golden State AND Denver AND Houston. Actually, OKC vs. Portland is the only series in the entire playoffs where the lower seed is favored according to our model. We give the Thunder a 78 percent chance of advancing.

natesilver: OKC and Denver saw their championship odds improve when Houston wound up in the No. 4 seed, and it’s mostly because of the parlay that Houston beats Golden State (possible) and then THEY beat Houston (also possible). I’m not sure that Denver would have any chance against Golden State in a seven-game series, however.

chris.herring: I feel bad that I don’t believe in Denver, given how well they played all year, with injuries, and with so many young guys on that roster.

neil: Is Denver the weirdest No. 2 seed we’ve seen in recent memory? They didn’t even make the playoffs last year, albeit with 46 wins.

chris.herring: Also, every single time Denver plays Golden State, it feels very much like GSW goes out of its way to show how easily they can dominate the Nuggets when they want to. Basically to show that a playoff series could get embarrassing if Golden State felt like imposing its will.

natesilver: The Nuggets benefited a lot from their depth in the regular season — that’s why they battled so well through injuries — but depth doesn’t mean much in the playoffs.

chris.herring: Their relative inexperience in the playoffs concerns me maybe more than it should.

natesilver: It’s a pretty weird roster, and I think the Nuggets have some offseason work to do to turn a couple of their many, many league-average players into another really good player, especially someone who can play out on the wing.

chris.herring: Part of me feels like they simply may not have another gear. Almost like those Tom Thibodeau teams. Because they’re young, perhaps they don’t know to pace themselves. And how could they? They missed the playoffs in the final game of the season last year.

But the fact that Golden State just runs them out of the building whenever they play very much feels like an experienced team versus one that isn’t and needs some playoff seasoning so that they’re ready for the next time.

neil: They feel destined to become another poster child for the difference between what wins in the regular season and the playoffs, for all the reasons you guys mentioned. But at least they do have a legit star in Nikola Jokic.

natesilver: Denver does have a pretty big home-court advantage because of the altitude. So that they got the No. 2 seed is actually pretty relevant.

chris.herring: That’s true. I at least like that they aren’t reliant on the altitude anymore to win games. (Although those teams that played at a breakneck pace under George Karl — and Doug Moe before that — were pretty fun to watch.)

neil: Good point. They were an NBA-best 34-7 at home this season, and they are in that relatively lesser bottom section of the bracket.

natesilver: I mean, we have the Nuggets with a 53 percent chance of reaching the Western Conference finals … and a 6 percent chance of reaching the NBA Finals. That tells you a lot right there.

chris.herring: What else are you all interested to see in the West? Any hope whatsoever for Portland, despite the injury to Jusuf Nurkic?

neil: Portland is another team with a lot to prove after that unexpected first-round sweep vs. the Pelicans (remember THEM?) last year. But OKC is a very tough draw.

chris.herring: Portland got swept this year by OKC. Our projection model is right to not trust them. And Nurkic not being there is a killer. They had put together a really, really nice run before his injury, and perhaps could have made things interesting.

tchow: I really feel for Portland fans. So many “what ifs” due to injury, and they always seem to happen when it looks like they’re on the cusp of putting it all together.

natesilver: Pretty unusual to have a No. 6 seed be better than a 3 to 1 favorite (OKC is 78 percent to win the series, according to our model), but I think I agree, too.

chris.herring: Yeah. There’s isn’t much to love about Portland’s chances

natesilver: The Thunder are also the team that I’d fear the most if I were Golden State after Houston.

chris.herring: Damian Lillard went nuts during the regular season against the Thunder. Had a 50-point game and averaged better than 30 a night against them, yet they dropped all four meetings.

tchow: Is CJ McCollum going to be back for this first round?

chris.herring: Yeah. McCollum is back. But he had a true shooting percentage of 46 against OKC, his worst mark of any opponent out West that he played at least three times.

natesilver: Tenacious defense + Paul George (especially if he can get back to his midseason form) is a formula that gives you a puncher’s chance against any opponent.

chris.herring: I don’t trust OKC yet. Some of that is Russell Westbrook’s tendencies being all over the place at times. Some of it is George not having played the way he was playing earlier in the year (still not sure his shoulder is completely right at times).

Their defense, which is one of the best in the league, has been merely average since the break. They don’t have enough shooting. But their top-level talent is better than anybody else’s, outside of Houston and GSW. And that ultimately matters. And their side of the bracket is amazing.

natesilver: Jerami Grant shot 39 percent from three this year, although that’s likely a fluke (he’s 33 percent careerwise).

chris.herring: He’s been a big bright spot for them.

natesilver: If they had another wing that was a true 39-40 percent 3-point shooter, that would make a ton of difference.

neil: OK, so to wrap things up, let’s look at the big picture for the title as it runs through Golden State (like always). If we each had to put together a short list of teams — from either conference — who could beat the Warriors in these playoffs, how many teams would be on it and who are they?

Mine might be two: Rockets and Bucks.

natesilver: Our algorithm feels strongly that the list is EXACTLY three teams long: Milwaukee, Toronto and Houston.

tchow: Bucks

natesilver: I guess people — or Neil and Tony, anyway — have trouble envisioning the Raptors doing it.

tchow: Sorry, Toronto.

natesilver: And to be clear, the Raptors would be big underdogs. Like 3:1 underdogs, per our model, despite having home-court advantage.

tchow: Another way to ask that question, Nate, as a fan of gambling, Warriors have a 60 percent chance of winning another title. Would you bet on the field?

natesilver: No. I think that’s a pretty fair price. And it’s pretty close to the Vegas odds, I think.

chris.herring: Yeah. I feel much better about Milwaukee, just based off their season, analytics and star power than anyone else. But I don’t think Toronto would match up poorly at all with Golden State. They’d have guys who could credibly guard Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and have enough offense of their own to make things interesting.

Boston seemed like a good bet to get there in preseason, but I don’t trust them to accomplish that without Smart being healthy., a And without them putting together a solid string of performances, I still ultimately think it’s the Warriors winning it all again. But I hope someone at least gives them a competitive series, be it Houston, Milwaukee (Toronto?) or both.

tchow: That’s all folks!

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nba-playoffs-are-here-and-we-have-thoughts/

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amtushinfosolutionspage · 6 years

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NBA Summer Vacation Watch 2018

It was a long, long season and an even longer postseason. But it was all worth it to get to what’s important, the reason we follow the NBA at all, the one, triumphant thing that it culminates in: summer vacation.

If you’re new to Summer Vacation Watch then may I welcome you to the warmest shores of your sweet postseason life. A place where vacations and whereabouts of your favorite NBA players are closely followed, scrutinized and compiled for your basketball deprived minds in the most sizzling hot months. Are you mad you don’t get to wear shorts during the regular season? You’ve come to the right place. To returning readers I say WHEW that took long enough and I am glad we’re all here to get heatstroke via osmosis again.

As the ancient saying goes: The solstice is here, the trophy is won, summer vacation watch has begun.

Joel Embiid

When a summer vacation starts with a self-described experience of fighting for your life, clawing at the lip of a waterslide all the way down, you know it’s gonna be a good one. According to the Atlantis resort’s website Embiid plunged down a “60-foot almost-vertical drop from the top of the world-famous and iconic Mayan Temple…at a tremendous speed through a clear tunnel submerged in a shark-filled lagoon” and you know what? He hated it. But by dressing and screaming for the vacation you want, you’ll be riding high all summer.

Rating: This is the reason the song “Danger Zone” was invented.

Jimmy Butler

Alert! Alert! Jimmy Butler is on vacation! If you’ll harken back to the sun kissed memories of last season’s NBA Summer Vacation Watch, Jimmy was one of the guys who never took a vacay, or if he did, he didn’t make it known to the hordes of strangers who wanted to insert themselves into his life. Maybe he felt like he had to buckle down having just arrived in Minnesota, maybe he was just getting to know his new city, but thank God that’s all over because so far this offseason Jimmy’s already gone on two vacations. The first to Canada (Butler to Raptors 2020), where he got stuck on a mountain, and the second to Venice, Italy, where he is taking calls to begin his modeling career.

Rating: Your new favorite movie, The Angel Wears Pineapple Shirt.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Greek Freak, while not technically on vacation, took a trip down some of y’all’s memory lanes by trying American junk foods. What’s better than picturing his face and reactions to eating these exotic delights—absent from his POV pictures—is the settings and activities serving as the backdrop to his new experiences. The first: maybe a mall or, since it was during playoffs, a playoff game. The second: his own home. Finally: getting a pedicure. While I hope we get a good far-flung summer vacation from Giannis later this offseason, I’ll accept this everyday chillage in lieu.

Rating: The true spirit of “staycation” aka not lying to yourself by saying a trip to the laundromat with a book counts.

Kyle Kuzma

In a reversal of Embiid plummeting from them, scaling great heights is an excellent way to set a high bar for your summer vacation and climbing the Great Wall in the first week of June really puts it up there. While he took his agent and personal trainer to the top with him and did it in the clothes he wears to practice, I will let this instance of taking the office with you slide because I get the feeling Kyle Kuzma would find an excuse to slip “fitness” in on any vacation, and I’d rather he did it here than in a beach-adjacent infinity pool while the rest of us looked on, chugging guiltily from our piña coladas.

Rating: UNESCO certified summer vacation.

Lonzo Ball

I just want to point out that, while Lonzo did drop a diss track on his teammate Kyle Kuzma shortly before he went on this Jet Ski Trip With The Boys, Kuzma had just, ostensibly, climbed down from the Great Wall of China which is sort of like the best real life equivalent to preemptively recording a comeback there is.

Rating: What I’m saying is, Lonzo Ball takes boring summer vacations.

Joakim Noah

No, Noah, it’s submerge warm, intake cold, that’s the order in the summer, that’s how it has to go.

Rating: TFW you’re accidentally named CEO of the new NBA DIY cryogenics division.

Meyers Leonard

You know who else takes boring summer vacations, even in places where we’ve already seen great summer vacations? Meyers Leonard. Here is the sentient varietal of man-sized lemon, sitting atop a giant Beetlejuice tube you get the feeling he doesn’t know how to get off of.

Rating: Might as well trade him away to the LNB Pro A, ‘cause there’s no way he’s coming down off that tube before his contract is up.

Matthew Dellavedova

Oh great, another guy who still can’t manage to get summer vacations right, even when he literally lives on an island made of sand in the middle of the sea and is vacationing on an even smaller, more sand covered island beside that bigger island. What does Matthew Dellavedova do in a palm-flanked infinity pool, onlooking majestic vistas and the ocean? He stretches his leg.

Rating: Aquafit, but still somehow worse.

Bogdan Bogdanović

Good lord. Here’s Bogdan spending the start of his summer vacation on an overgrown court hucking a ball at a reclaimed barn backboard that would assuredly sell for hundreds of dollars at Restoration Hardware, should they ever decide to get into sporting goods. Alright, those misty Serbian mountains do look majestic and it’s cool to get a Country Strong kinda MTV Cribs glimpse into Bogdanović’s life, but we’ve got to get some beaches back in here.

Rating: Splinters from when this soggy backboard shatters and nary a sunburn in sight.

Patty Mills

Like the friend who makes sure you’re reapplying sunscreen, or bringing you another cold bev of your choice, Patty Mills is not only the NBA SVW MVP, he’s the sherpa of summertime and is always there to get and keep this sweetest of seasons on track. I’ll be honest, I thought this was a picture from last year, that was indeed featured last SVW, but no, Patty is back, topless, with another nice fish he wants to show you. This is as powerful an omen as the solstice itself.

Rating: One fish, two fish, red fish, single-handedly saving summer vacation, uh, fish.

Lou Williams

Speaking of fish! Here’s Lou Williams in an idyllic backyard river setting where, if you listen hard enough, you can almost hear the steady drone of cicadas in the trees over yonder. While we love exotic locales here at SVW, there’s something to be said for some simple RnR done the way you want. It’s not a bad thing to ease into summer, but that still doesn’t mean you can’t stretch in the pool.

Rating: A pair of dulling harmonicas that never get too frenzied, mostly complementing one another.

Karl-Anthony Towns

Look who’s in Capri, wearing capris! Not only that, but the assured bag of the summertime, the fanny pack, slung this way over the shoulder and down across a very casually buttoned—I want to say silk—shirt with a big KAT on it. Molto bella, bud.

Rating: Mamma mia!

P.J. Tucker

P.J. in Paris, Woody Allen get your grubby little mitts off the possibilities of this tour de France! Let us set the scene: here we have the defensive dream of every Western Conference team strolling the rue in a chapeau Alexandre Dumas would be tres pleased to see but could never himself pull off. Yes, oui, the palette of the outfit is like a simple macaron, bon chance at a better summer look than this. Or, in the words of Tyson Chandler in the comments, “Gone & Swag on em Tuck!”

Rating: Bonté divine!

Chandler Parsons

I’ll be the first to admit that it was a mistake to overlook Chandler Parsons in these hallowed, covered-in-tanning-oil halls—the dude knows how to do his downtime. After stops in Hawaii, Germany, and the UK, Parsons has moved onto making good-bad jokes in Iceland. Welcome Chandler, we’ve been waiting for you.

Rating: It’s like if Joshua Jackson grew ten inches and sort of became ruder? Am I crushing? A summer romance!

Jonas Valančiūnas

My man and his smaller man, celebrating father’s day like dads love to do: on a beach admiring at once their children, the proud and indomitable ocean, a nice looking boat going by out there and—hey how fast do you think those things go and are they very good on gas? This photo also offers a wonderful glimpse into the synergy of NBA summer vacation, that is, when there’s proof that these guys creep on each other’s vacations like the rest of us. Amir Johnson comes in with a dad joke of his own in the comments to add some sizzle to these father-son sunburns (sonburns?): “Y’all got on the same size shorts lol.”

Rating: The determination to make a play on words like “sonburn” work.

Jerami Grant

Jerami met a baby with a kid (a baby goat) in Egypt and is having an extremely cute summer so far.

Rating: OG GOAT.

NBA Summer Vacation Watch 2018 syndicated from https://australiahoverboards.wordpress.com

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flauntpage · 6 years

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NBA Summer Vacation Watch 2018

As the ancient saying goes: The solstice is here, the trophy is won, summer vacation watch has begun.

Joel Embiid

Rating: This is the reason the song "Danger Zone" was invented.

Jimmy Butler

Rating: Your new favorite movie, The Angel Wears Pineapple Shirt.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Rating: The true spirit of “staycation” aka not lying to yourself by saying a trip to the laundromat with a book counts.

Kyle Kuzma

Rating: UNESCO certified summer vacation.

Lonzo Ball

Rating: What I’m saying is, Lonzo Ball takes boring summer vacations.

Joakim Noah

No, Noah, it’s submerge warm, intake cold, that’s the order in the summer, that’s how it has to go.

Rating: TFW you’re accidentally named CEO of the new NBA DIY cryogenics division.

Meyers Leonard

You know who else takes boring summer vacations, even in places where we've already seen great summer vacations? Meyers Leonard. Here is the sentient varietal of man-sized lemon, sitting atop a giant Beetlejuice tube you get the feeling he doesn’t know how to get off of.

Rating: Might as well trade him away to the LNB Pro A, ‘cause there’s no way he’s coming down off that tube before his contract is up.

Matthew Dellavedova

Rating: Aquafit, but still somehow worse.

Bogdan Bogdanović

Rating: Splinters from when this soggy backboard shatters and nary a sunburn in sight.

Patty Mills

Rating: One fish, two fish, red fish, single-handedly saving summer vacation, uh, fish.

Lou Williams

Rating: A pair of dulling harmonicas that never get too frenzied, mostly complementing one another.

Karl-Anthony Towns

Rating: Mamma mia!

P.J. Tucker

Rating: Bonté divine!

Chandler Parsons

Rating: It’s like if Joshua Jackson grew ten inches and sort of became ruder? Am I crushing? A summer romance!

Jonas Valančiūnas

Rating: The determination to make a play on words like "sonburn" work.

Jerami Grant

Jerami met a baby with a kid (a baby goat) in Egypt and is having an extremely cute summer so far.

Rating: OG GOAT.

NBA Summer Vacation Watch 2018 published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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flauntpage · 6 years

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“They My Little Guys” – Observations from Sixers 128, Hornets 114

As they’ve done for much of 2018, the Sixers followed up a very crappy performance with a very good performance.

They tend to get the bad play out of their system rather quickly, putting losses in the rear view mirror and bouncing back with much better efforts in the following game.

Last night, it was white-hot shooting that got the job done, with the Sixers hitting 50 of 87 shots to finish with a season-high 57.5 field goal percentage. They were 16-33 from three for a 48.5% mark. Seven players finished in double figures as Brett Brown’s team put up 125 points for only the second time this season.

(The first was the November game against the Magic, when JJ Redick went 8-12 from three. Remember that one?)

They’ve actually gone above 55% four times this season – once last night, once in Monday night’s loss, and also in the Houston and Phoenix road wins:

That’s something else, isn’t it? The Sixers’ four best overall shooting nights have all taken place on the road, where they finished 3-1. And last night was their 7th-best three-point shooting night, as they’ve finished at or above 50% a chunk of times this year.

Obviously the difference between Monday and Wednesday was 26 turnovers compared to 14. That’s +12 meaningful possessions against Charlotte, cleaning up the Milwaukee mess that resulted in the Bucks absolutely killing the Sixers in transition in the third and fourth quarters.

They cleaned it up last night while benefiting from a key ejection receiving some excellent two-way contributions from this guy:

Robert Covington

22 points for Cov on 7-11 shooting (63.6%). He was 5-9 from three (55.6%).

It was his first 20 point game dating all the way back to December 12th, which was 40 games ago. He now has 18 games this season where he’s shot 50% or better from three point range on a minimum of four attempts, and 22 games where he’s finished 25% or worse from three under the same parameters. The ends of the Robert Covington spectrum seem to be further apart than those of other NBA players, at least if feels that way to me. I’d be interested in looking into that same set of numbers for guys like Redick and Saric.

But when Cov is on, he’s on, and he complemented the offensive output with a stout defensive game, contributing two steals, two blocks, and essentially shutting down Kemba Walker in Charlotte.

Walked finished with 5 points on 1-9 shooting, his lowest scoring output dating all the way back to April of last season. He had gone for 31, 27, 31, and 23 in his four prior games.

Here’s Kemba’s shot chart from last night, a miserable outing with Covington his primary defender:

We talk about Covington’s offensive struggles, but he stays on the floor because he’s still the team’s best perimeter defender, a guy with a 101.5 DEFRTG who is always assigned to the opponent’s best player. To that end, the 101.5 number is smushed into a grouping that includes solid defenders like Andre Iguodala (101.2) and Justise Winslow (101.9).

I thought the most authoritative play last night was this one:

Weak hand, patience, SWAT. Cov usually reaches down there and tries to slap the ball away.

Get him outta here

That play was important in the flow of the game because the no-call frustrated Michael Kidd-Gilchrist so much that he yelled at the ref, picked up a tech, then yelled at the ref again and got tossed. That doesn’t happen if Covington doesn’t pull off that nasty block.

The MKG exit was important for two reasons. First, it was only a four-point game at that point. The Sixers went on a 19-11 run to finish the half and take a 12 point lead into the break.

Second, Kidd-Gilchrist was guarding Ben Simmons.

Prior to the ejection, with 20 minutes gone, Simmons had 8 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists.

After the ejection, over the remaining 28 minutes, he added 8 more points, 6 rebounds, and 10 assists, finishing with 16, 8, and 13 on the night.

No doubt it opened up for a him a bit more when MKG left the game, though I have a feeling Simmons probably would have put up his typical numbers either way. Still, they used the ejection as a momentum builder and capitalized on it to expand the lead to double digits.

Need a rest

Dwight Howard had 30 points last night, which was actually his best scoring output of the year. He made up for a really rough outing in Philadelphia last week and carried the team with Walker struggling.

I thought Joel Embiid looked a little tired guarding him, and Jo could probably use a break after last week’s back-to-back ran right into a multi-game road trip. But credit to Embiid for focusing in the second half to finish with a respectable 18 and 5, and 4, plus three turnovers, which you can live with. He went for 7, 4, 2, and 5 in the four prior games, so coughing it up three times is manageable.

Embiid is now up to 52 games this season, which is getting close to double what he played last year. He’s now averaging 31.3 minutes and hasn’t seen this volume of action at any point in his career. He’s played a handful of back-to-backs for the first time ever.

I still think you rest him a bit down the stretch. Brett Brown has prioritized “delivering” a healthy Embiid to postseason over any kind of home court or seeding advantage, so if you can get away with sitting him in two of the Brooklyn, New York, Memphis, and Orlando games, I think you go for it.

I also appreciated this face he made after Howard dunked over him last night:

Embiid lol pic.twitter.com/HqKIBbpsWR

— Kevin Kinkead (@Kevin_Kinkead) March 7, 2018

That’s the face you make when you want to try to play it cool, but you have to respect what the opponent just did.

Allen Iverson

He was totally lit last night when he did this third quarter interview:

ICYMI: Allen Iverson’s interview from last night’s Sixers game… pic.twitter.com/KwkWFUerJD

— Marc Farzetta (@MarcFarzetta) March 7, 2018

Hah.

“I love my guys. I love my little dudes. They my little guys. I love ’em.”

Thanks A.I., that’s good stuff.

The needling is all in good fun, so no judgments from me. I’m pretty certain he was smoking the Swedish cheeba before and/or during the game.

The older Allen gets, the more he reminds me of Sir Schmoke-a-Lot from Half Baked:

“They My Little Guys” – Observations from Sixers 128, Hornets 114 published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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fmlfpl · 7 years

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Lineup Lamentations - GW31

Our Transfers, Captains, and Starting 11s.

WALSH

Transfers:

OUT: Lukaku and Defoe

IN (For -4 Points): Zlatz and BENTEKE

At this point in the season where top 10k feels fairly unattainable if I stick with herd moves - I'm sitting at 76k currently - so I'm in think outside the box / slightly insane mode. Basically going through with what was shouted on the pod. Benteke is not "safe" or "smart" but fucking fuck it. I want to have fun and getting in Benteke as a Palace supporter is fucking fun. Removing Luk is not "safe" or "smart" but I'm gonna just gamble on it and go for Zlatz. I wouldn't have capped Luk in his two home bankers after United anyway so instead of rooting for one of my players to blank I just got rid so I can really fucking root for him to blank. If that makes sense. Been taking hits fairly regularly the past handful of GWs...can't say it's been successful...but we'll see how it goes. Hoping for some lucky shit and chunk rises in the upcoming doubles.

GK: Fucking Tom it's time for Tom to get a clean at home to Stoke. Go on. Stuck on 5 saves against Spurs was a MIFF. Go on Tom. Burnley have been fucking bad lately...maybe they can suffocate Stoke at home.

DEF: News coming out about a possible Tony V rest has me a little but uneasy and if that occurs than hopefully Holes starts his game. but, life for me will not be something like Tony V misses the game Holes comes in with a 7 pointer like people had this past weekend when Walker missed. Life for me has Tony V rest and Holes comes in for a -1 on 4 goals allowed and a yellow card. Yay. Alonso and Bellyfuck I keep trotting out. Still happy w Alonso and not thinking of removing him at all. Belly was so close to some assists last game against City so I'm hoping for some attacking returns soon. Maybe Arse can remember they are good and keep a clean sheet. Gab in for Kos probably means for sure not. Lol at me.

MID: Standing by my man Sigmund indefinitely. He is too classy to carry on blanking and would be very unsurprised to see a nice little tit from him against his former team when plenty of FPL owners are removing him. Zaha is making his way into many more teams after his fest against Chelsea and rightfully so he's a fucking beast. I am very nervous about Ayew starting as I could see him rested for some other piece of shit but hopefully not. Still like him over the next few fixtures to get some goals. Finally Alexis. Eh. Hope he doesn't play on the wing against Hammers but whatever. He's great.

FWD: New lads come in alongside KUN love of my life. Haven't owned Benteke all year so welcome to the party Bent. As mentioned on the pod I like the way he looked against Chelsea and I'm thinking he might be in for a nice finish to the season. Zlatan comes back into the fray and hoping that he has a big return before everyone starts to rush to get him in. Always feels good to jump early when he's still a differential.

CAP: Alexis. Not going to overthink it this week and don't feel like anyone else is grabbing me as a good differential cap. I'm going to stick with Alexis even though I don't LOVE his potential shunted out on the wing. However, West Ham is as bad a defense as he'll face so I'm going to trust that his quality will shine through. I also did not forget the quad return he treated us to in the reverse fixture earlier on when I capped him so I need to try and chase that feeling again right?

ALON

Transfers:

OUT: N/A

IN: N/A

So let me caveat this right off the jump. Writing these lambs on Monday evening so I’m still hoping to get some not bad news (praying, actually) regarding Mane and his knee. If he’s dead for a long time then I’ll transfer him out as top priority, but if he’s maybe ok maybe just missing 1-2 fixtures then maybe I’ll just hide him for a bit. There will be panic (blood).

Aside from the above the fucks on my shit team that need removing include Snodgrass and Raz and Ashley Barnes... I like Wilf, I love Sane, Coutinho is an ok pick, maybe I’ll follow Walsh’s suggestion with Ozil? Mental. I like Gabb but he’s still ruled out, maybe Origi? Hmmmm.... Maybe I’ll take a minus twelve when all is said and done.. Ashley Barnes, Raz, Snod, Mane OUT and Zlatz, Wilf, de Roon, and some fuck Redmond or something IN... That gets me a bit al dente maybe I’ll just pull the trigger. It is gunslinger time of the season right?? YOLO right?!?!?!?!?! Fuck me. I will tweet the moves I’ve made once I’ve made’em.. wish me luck. Here’s my tentative lineup:

GK: Lee Grant go on. Burnley are fucking horrrrrrrible and are legitimately so lucky to stay up this season. Unless they reinforce big time they will probably go down next season. Maybe Lee can keep it clean.

DEF: Alonso, my rock, my rock who scores 1-2 points every week (fuck me)... But he’ll be back with the hauls soon enough lads. Now maybe that the title race is kind of “back on” (it isn’t) and Tottenham could make it interesting (meh, not really) Chelsea will get their fucking rich plastic fuck heads out of their rentboy asses and keep some cleans or something?!!?! Joel Matip my favorite Joel on Earth get in there. Liverpool have to keep some cleans on this good run of fixtures just by sheer luck and possession at this point. Joel will also score 1-2 dings by seasons end mark my words. And Andy Robertson gets into my side finally. The double digit haul last week has nothing to do with it. Hull are home to Boro - that has everything to do with it.

MID: Mane keeps his spot, lols. He’s fucked probably right? God damnit I’m just dreaming that he’s gonna be fine but he’s not gonna be fine at all. Anyway so Mane’s fake spot will go to the legend of Snodgrass (reminder - this Lineup Lambs is being written before I make my moves, I’m waiting on Mane news so Snod will not be in my team)..... Alexis is still the main man on a still good side. He and Arsenal were utter shit vs. City but they will still turn some sides over with their remaining fixtures and when they turn sides over Alexi gets hauls. Fake Raz in my team, he will hopefully not be in my team if I have balls and transfer him out in the morning, but maybe he will keep his spot because I also love him. Time will tell. And lastly Alli is auto in every week. I still think that he’s the best value mid in the game and that everyone should have him.

FWD: Lukaku and Vardy look good next to each other in blue up there. Lukaku however is going to Old Trafford and will probably blank so meh, not excited at that. Vardz on the other hand has been RED HOT and is home to the worst player in all 9999 English divisions of football. Tit me. And then there’s Smashley Barnes. Either Ashley is a Mane stop-gap or he’s not starting for my squad because I transfer Mane out. Time will tell again.

CAP: Vardzzzzzz. Alan Vardewwwwwww... As we talked about on the pod - I own Alexis but Vardy is my chance at the bigger differential / chance of impact / chance of huge green arrow so I’m going with that. I’ve been pathetically bad most of the season, my rank is shite, so I’m making the riskier plays. That’s that. This will burn me.

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years

Text

NFL free agency 2017: Grades for every move as they happen

Who got the next Brock Osweiler? Which team landed the perfect pass rusher? Let’s grade this year’s free agent additions to find out!

There are two ways of looking at free agent signings in the NFL. If you’re a fan, it’s pretty exciting to see your team adding brand new players to the roster. The more name recognition those players have makes it even better. When another team does the same thing, they are clearly making a mistake, the second coming of the 2011 Eagles “Dream Team.”

If this spectrum of free agency reactions were represented on a line, there’d be a larger middle part where not every decision looks like it was made by Dan Snyder.

In 2016, the Giants defense thrived with the help of free agents Janoris Jenkins and Olivier Vernon. Atlanta made smart, targeted, and expensive moves last year to fill gaps, and that worked pretty well for them, except for blowing a 25-point lead at the worst possible time in the history of the sport.

Maybe this year’s moves will work. Maybe they won’t. In the meantime, all we can do is assign them letter grades.

Lions sign G T.J. Lang

Detroit made a nice investment to upgrade its offensive line this month. Lang gives them a mauler on the inside who helps keep the pocket clean and gets push in the run game. It doesn’t hurt that they also stole him away from the Packers. The downside here is that they have $19 million guaranteed to a 30-year old who had foot and hip surgeries this year.

Grade: B

Patriots trade a first- and third-round pick to the Saints for WR Brandin Cooks

If you think about it, the Patriots average of 27.6 points per game was their lowest offensive output since 2009. Sure, they won a Super Bowl, again, but they could be better. Now, they’re better, A LOT better.

Cooks and Chris Hogan on the outside. Rob Gronkowski anywhere he wants to be. Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Dion Lewis, James White and the newly acquired Dwayne Allen. Good luck stopping that!

Grade: A

Packers sign TE Martellus Bennett

Why settle for Jared Cook when you can have Martellus Bennett? This is a great move for the Packers, a big upgrade at the position and a dynamic receiver who gives their offense more punch in the middle of the field. The Packers don’t sign a lot of free agents, but it seems like when they do, they make it count.

They’ll still have to do something about that defense.

Grade: A

Washington signs WR Terrelle Pryor

It’s a little surprising that Pryor has to settled for a one-year, $6 million deal to prove himself. He did manage to top 1,000 yards with the Browns last year, despite a rotation of bad quarterbacks. It could be a steal for Washington, looking to fill the void left by DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon’s departure ... assuming the organizational dysfunction doesn’t spill over to the field.

Grade: A

Patriots acquire DE Kony Ealy and a third-round pick from the Panthers in a trade for a second-round pick

Don’t judge the deal by the rounds, New England is only moving down eight spots. And in return, they get a former second-round pick who had a huge game in the Super Bowl last year. He’s been a disappointment other than that, but the Patriots have a knack for turning those players around.

Grade: A

Colts sign DL Jabaal Sheard

Indianapolis has a lot of work to do on defense. Signing a mid-level pass rusher like Sheard is a good move toward that. Three years, $25.5 million with $12.75 guaranteed for a guy who picked up 13 sacks in two years with the Patriots. He’s also a solid presence defending the run.

Grade: A-

Vikings sign RT Mike Remmers

Everyone remembers Remmers for his struggles when he started at right tackle for the Panthers in the Super Bowl (it didn’t help that Carolina didn’t bother to send an extra blocker to assist), but he’s a solid right tackle. The Vikings scooped up Reiff and Remmers in 24 hours, not a bad haul. This was their biggest need.

Grade: A

Panthers sign FS Mike Adams and DE Julius Peppers

Peppers returns to Carolina where they can use some depth for their pass rushers. He had 7.5 sacks last season, so even at 37, he can be effective in a situational role.

Adams is another old-timer — he turns 36 this month — but he’s a good one. He had 12 picks over the last three seasons with the Colts. You probably didn’t notice because, lol, Colts defense. They needed veterans in the secondary.

Grade: B

Dolphins sign LB Lawrence Timmons

I’m not exactly sure what the 31-year old linebacker brings to the table at this point, other than a part-timer. But at two years, $12 million, with $11 million guaranteed, the Dolphins probably don’t intend for him to be a in part-time role.

Grade: C

Bears sign CB Prince Amukamara

Another season, another one-year deal for the former first-round pick who’s struggled with injuries his entire career. He’s a steady enough corner who can start, that’s not a bad thing for the Bears.

Grade: B+

Titans sign CB Logan Ryan

The Titans lost out on the A.J. Bouye sweepstakes, but they were still able to land one of the top cornerbacks on the free agent market — and at a cheaper price (three years, $30 million).

Ryan earned his payday after developing into a starter in his final two years with the Patriots. The Titans needed secondary help, and even if Ryan wasn’t as highly coveted as Bouye or new Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore, this is still a solid pickup.

Grade: A-

Chargers sign Russell Okung

Four years and $53 million seems expensive based on Okung’s performance in Denver last year, but if the Chargers can keep him on the field, he can be an effective blocker again.

Grade: B

Ravens re-sign DT Brandon Williams

We don’t usually include players re-signing with their team on this list, but Williams is a useful exception. It looked like he would for sure get away, but the Ravens kept the centerpiece of their defensive line in-house with a five-year$54 million deal with $27.5 million guaranteed. Dontari Poe can expect a similar deal.

Grade: A

Jaguars sign CB A.J. Bouye

It wasn’t cheap, but boy oh boy does the Jacksonville secondary look fun with Bouye paired with Jalen Ramsey. Bouye turns 26 in August and Ramsey turns 23 in October, so the Jaguars don’t look like they’ll be worried about the cornerback position for a long time.

Is Bouye worth the $67.5 million he’ll be making over the next five years? He looked like it in 2016, but that was his only year as a starter.

Grade: B

Seahawks sign OT Luke Joeckel

The former No. 2 overall pick didn’t live up to his draft status in four seasons with the Jaguars. He dealt with injuries, but mostly just didn’t play very well and was eventually kicked inside to guard when the team signed Kelvin Beachum.

But it’s a one-year deal that makes sense for the Seahawks and doesn’t break the bank. Even though he didn’t live up to his blind side protector promise in Jacksonville, he’s an upgrade for a Seattle offensive line that badly needs one.

Grade: B

Vikings sign OT Riley Reiff

Minnesota was desperate for offensive linemen, and they found one. He can play either side, and with Matt Kalil gone, he’ll probably start on the left.

Grade: A

Eagles sign WR Alshon Jeffery

The most notable thing about Jeffery signing with the Eagles is that he did so on a one-year deal. It’s worth $14 million so it’s not a cheap deal for Philadelphia, but it means Jeffery will be playing for what he hopes will be an even bigger contract in 2018.

Coupled with Torrey Smith, this is a deal the Eagles can definitely feel good about for the 2017 season and the development of Carson Wentz. The concern is whether or not Jeffrey will be able to stay healthy for an entire season.

Grade: A

Texans solve their Brock Osweiler problem by trading him to the Browns

Well, here’s one you didn’t see coming this week! Maybe we should have. The Texans made a huge mistake with the Osweiler deal last year, and by the end of the season it was pretty apparent that Bill O’Brien knew that too. They had to do something about it, but given that contract the Texans couldn’t just cut him without a massive cap hit.

A trade seemed unlikely because who else would want Osweiler after watching his film from 2016? Turns out the Browns did! And they might have been the perfect landing spot for him. They have the cap space — more than $100 million to start the offseason — to do it. Even if they do end up releasing him, which is now a possibility, they can still eat the cap space. Essentially, what they’re doing is buying a second-round pick by taking a big problem off the Texans’ hands.

Cleveland gets: Osweiler & his deal contract, a second-round pick in 2018 and a sixth-round pick this year. Houston gets: A fourth-round pick this year and saves $10 million in salary-cap space and $16 million in cash.

More importantly, Houston gets the cap room to make a move for Tony Romo.

Grade: Give both teams an A for creativity. If Houston can’t land Romo for some reason, I’d drop them to a B, because at least they made Osweiler someone else’s problem.

Titans agree to terms with S Johnathan Cyprien

Cyprien is staying in the AFC South, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. He’s fine, an upgrade at a position of need for the Titans, but not the kind of free agent that changes the shape of a team or anything.

Grade: B

Cardinals sign S Antoine Bethea

At 32, it’s legit to wonder if he can be effective, but going from the dumpster fire in San Francisco to talented outfit like this could be just what he needs. He replaces Tony Jefferson.

Grade: B

Browns sign C J.C. Tretter

The Browns could’ve had a good interior line had they just hung onto Alex Mack, but they didn’t. Tretter helps paste over that mistakes and gives them a real tough center who should do wonders for the run game. Combine this with the decision to re-sign guard Joel Bitonio (who got a $51 million deal despite injury concerns), and the Browns have reason to be optimistic about their line this year and beyond.

Grade: A

Broncos agreed to terms with G Ronald Leary

You can make a pretty good case that the Broncos trash offensive line was the reason they didn’t make it back to the playoffs this year. This is a good first step toward fixing that. And, hey, maybe he’ll be reunited with his old pal Tony Romo from Dallas.

Grade: A

Washington agreed to terms with DT Terrell McClain

McClain is being rewarded for this healthiest season in a long time. But he’s more of solid starter than a game-changer, and Washington defense needs game-changers. The most interesting part of this deal will be to see what kind of money he’s getting now that front office infighting has made Bruce Allen the de facto GM again.

Grade: C

Saints agree to terms with Tedd Ginn, Jr.

If the team does end up trading Brandin Cooks, and it sounds like they will, Ginn gives them another deep threat, though probably not a guy who can pull out a 1,000-yard season like Cooks.

Grade: B

Rams sign WR Robert Woods

Woods is getting $39 million for a five-year deal with the Rams, with just $15 million guaranteed. If you consider that deal alongside the $42 million contract, with a stunning $28.5 million guaranteed, the Rams gave Tavon Austin last year, the team now has more than $80 million committed to a pair of role playing receivers, neither one of whom has topped 700 yards in a season.

Woods will see his share of work in the passing game, but the Rams need a true No. 1 receiver, especially after letting Kenny Britt walk.

Grade: C

Eagles and WR Torrey Smith agree to terms

It’s a three-year, $15 million deal, which could end up being one of the biggest steals in free agency this year. It gives Carson Wentz a veteran speedster at a fraction of the cost it would’ve taken to land DeSean Jackson.

Grade: A

Patriots agree to terms with CB Stephon Gilmore

Gilmore’s deal with the Patriots is expected to be in the neighborhood of $14 million per season, which is about on par with what the market’s top cornerback was expected to get. We’ve seen the Patriots make a play for the market’s top corner before when they signed Darrelle Revis to a two-year deal for $32 million. That one was effectively a one-year deal with $12 million the first season and a $20 million option for the second that the team declined.

Anyway, this makes their secondary one of the best in the AFC, enough to rival Denver. The thing to keep an eye on now are the reports of a potential trade brewing with the Saints that would send their other starting corner, Malcolm Butler, to New Orleans in exchange for WR Brandin Cooks.

Grade: A

Rams will sign LT Andrew Whitworth

The Rams needed o-line help bad enough to sign a 35-year old left tackle to a three-year, $36 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. Whitworth did make two All-Pro teams in his last two seasons, and has only missed two starts in his last eight years. He was the best left tackle available this year.

Draft bust Greg Robinson will likely move inside to guard. The right tackle job can go to either Rodger Saffold or Rob Havenstein. The Rams have been trying to build a viable offensive line since Orland Pace left a decade ago. This gets them a competent option for protecting their investment in Jared Goff.

Grade: B

Buccaneers agree to terms with WR DeSean Jackson

To compete in the NFC South right now, you have to be able to keep pace with the Falcons offense. Adding Jackson helps the Bucs accomplish that by giving them a dynamic speedster to pair with Mike Evans.

Grade: A

Browns will sign WR Kenny Britt

Four years, $32.5 million for Britt, who posted his first 1,000-yard season at age 29. The good news for the Browns is that he did that with Case Keenum and Jared Goff throwing him the ball, so he should get better QB play even with the Browns’ relatively low standards in that department.

What makes this deal a bad one is that it likely means the Browns are moving on from Terrelle Pryor. They reportedly balked at a rate starting at $10 million per season, but they also spurned one of the few players who expressed a desire to play in Cleveland, not to mention a 27-year-old talented receiver who posted his own first 1,000-yard season with the Browns rotating cast of signal callers.

This is how the Browns stay the Browns.

Grade: D

Bears expected to sign QB Mike Glennon

A three-year deal averaging almost $15 million per season for an immobile pocket passer with limited upside really isn’t as bad as it sounds. That’s at the low end of the pay scale for starting quarterbacks, at least the ones who aren’t still playing on a rookie deal. And it’s clear that this is just a temporary solution. Chicago still plans to draft a quarterback.

Maybe they’ll save enough money to re-sign Alshon Jeffery.

Grade: B

March 8

Free agency doesn’t start until 4 p.m. ET on March 9, but you can be forgiven for any confusion you had watching the free agency scoops drop from morning until night the day before that.

Most of the deals struck prior to the official start of the league year are of the “agreed in principle” variety, i.e. teams and players have the details all worked out, they just can’t sign any dotted lines until the league blows the whistle.

Giants sign WR Brandon Marshall

The Giants had a really good run through free agency last year, picking up players like Jenkins and Vernon to round out their defensive needs, versus, say, trying to make over the roster entirely in free agency. This is a similar move.

Odell Beckham Jr. is clearly the No. 1 guy still. Marshall gives them a really good No. 2 who helps create more mismatches for Odell, he’s an upgrade over Victor Cruz, and he gives Eli Manning another big target.

It was a two-year deal worth reportedly just $12 million. I would have assumed Marshall, even at 32, could’ve had more money.

Grade: A

49ers agree to terms with QB Brian Hoyer, WR Marquise Goodwin, and FB Kyle Juszczyk. They’re expected to sign WR Pierre Garcon on Thursday afternoon too.

The 49ers were scheduled to start the league year with no quarterbacks on the roster and no real offensive playmaking talent either. So it’s not surprising to see them sweep up four players right off the bat, especially the two players — Hoyer and Garcon — that coach Kyle Shanahan already knows well.

At least they seem to have realistic expectations about who Hoyer is: a backup. Kyle Shanahan reportedly suggested as much. It’s a two-year deal, which supports that. Now, the Niners can draft a quarterback and develop him on the bench behind Hoyer, if they so choose. Or, perhaps more likely, use Hoyer to keep Kirk Cousins’s seat warm until 2018.

Contract values for Garcon and Goodwin haven’t been reported as of press time. It’s likely the team views Goodwin as a role-playing fourth receiver/speed guy. Garcon isn’t a No. 1 receiver in the traditional sense of the position, but he’s a reliable pass catcher who led Washington in receptions and yards last season.

The one I don’t get is Juszczyk. Sure, he catches more passes than your average fullback, but they just made him the highest-paid fullback in the NFL at four years, $21 million, with $10.5 million guaranteed. An average of $5.25 million per year for a position that’s all but eliminated in the modern game.

Grade: B ... and a D for the fullback signing

Patriots acquire TE Dwayne Allen and a sixth-round pick from the Colts for a fourth-round pick.

There was a time when Allen looked like he could be one of those rare tight ends who could block and be a matchup threat, but he’s mostly been a disappointment since his rookie season. In New England, he’ll be a role player, replacing the departing Martellus Bennett as the second tight end on the roster, behind Gronk.

Grade: A

The Bills signed TWO fullbacks: Mike Tolbert and Patrick DiMarco.

Whoever said fullbacks were irrelevant would be really confused by all the road graders getting scooped up on Wednesday. DiMarco is the blocker, and the Bills committed $8.5 million for a four-year deal with him. Tolbert’s deal is a one-year, $1 million flyer, so it’s not like they’ve tied up a bunch of money in two hulking backs.

Buffalo’s running game has LeSean McCoy to be the speedy home run threat. Now, they have some hosses for the short-yardage power side of the equation.

On the other hand, the Bills could have used this money to help address other needs and find fullback help somewhere else.

Grade: C

Jaguars agree to terms with S Barry Church and DE Calais Campbell.

Jacksonville won the offseason championship last year. The Jags are off to another strong start this year, and they won’t have Gus Bradley coaching the team, which should do wonders.

Church replaces departing free agent Johnathan Cyprien, and will be an upgrade at strong safety. Church signed a four-year deal reportedly worth more than $6 million per season.

Campbell was one of the better defensive linemen on the market this year. He’s a great addition to the Jaguars’ already loaded defensive line. Sure, he’ll be coming from a 3-4 to a 4-3, but he can play all over the line and should transcend the scheme. He’s a great addition, but almost feels like more of a luxury than a pure need for the Jags. I’d be more pumped as a fan than as an armchair general manager.

Grade: B

Lions agree in principle with RT Ricky Wagner.

There’s a new price point for right tackles this year, and it starts north of $9 million per season. Nobody else on the market is likely to get that kind of deal — a deal like the one Wagner got with the Lions. He was the best right tackle available. He’s an upgrade over departing Riley Reiff, especially as a pass blocker, and is a great bookend with second-year left tackle Taylor Decker.

Grade: A

Ravens agree to terms with S Tony Jefferson

Two years in a row now that the Ravens have scored a big free agent safety. Last year it was Eric Weddle. That move paid off, but inconsistent play from Lardarius Webb undercut the secondary. And with Matt Elam’s injuries and legal troubles, the Ravens had a major need here. This is the kind of safety tandem that can make a defense fearsome for opponents.

Grade: A

Panthers expected to sign LT Matt Kalil

It’s nice that he’ll get to play on the same line as his brother, Ryan, but the Panthers better hope the family reunion can get him to play better than he ever has since being drafted fourth overall by the Vikings in 2012.

A hip injury kept him sidelined for all but two games last year. He’s reportedly back to 100 percent.

Carolina is committed to reclamation projects for the left tackle spot. Michael Oher didn’t cut it after signing there in 2015. He still has two years left on his deal. Now, with Kalil, the Panthers are banking on an other first-round pick turning around his disappointing career.

Grade: D

Ravens agree to terms with RB Danny Woodhead

Woodhead and Joe Flacco on the same team? Is it possible to win 10 games with the league’s leader in grit and an #elite quarterback? I guess we’ll find out.

Grade: B

0 notes

junker-town · 7 years

Text

NFL free agency 2017: Grades for every move as they happen

Who got the next Brock Osweiler? Which team landed the perfect pass rusher? Let’s grade this year’s free agent additions to find out!

If this spectrum of free agency reactions were represented on a line, there’d be a larger middle part where not every decision looks like it was made by Dan Snyder.

Maybe this year’s moves will work. Maybe they won’t. In the meantime, all we can do is assign them letter grades.

Patriots trade a first- and third-round pick to the Saints for WR Brandin Cooks

Cooks and Chris Hogan on the outside. Rob Gronkowski anywhere he wants to be. Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Dion Lewis, James White and the newly acquired Dwayne Allen. Good luck stopping that!

Grade: A

Packers sign TE Martellus Bennett

They’ll still have to do something about that defense.

Grade: A

Washington signs WR Terrelle Pryor

Grade: A

Patriots acquire DE Kony Ealy and a third-round pick from the Panthers in a trade for a second-round pick

Grade: A

Colts sign DL Jabaal Sheard

Grade: A-

Vikings sign RT Mike Remmers

Grade: A

Panthers sign FS Mike Adams and DE Julius Peppers

Peppers returns to Carolina where they can use some depth for their pass rushers. He had 7.5 sacks last season, so even at 37, he can be effective in a situational role.

Grade: B

Dolphins sign LB Lawrence Timmons

Grade: C

Bears sign CB Prince Amukamara

Grade: B+

Titans sign CB Logan Ryan

The Titans lost out on the A.J. Bouye sweepstakes, but they were still able to land one of the top cornerbacks on the free agent market — and at a cheaper price (three years, $30 million).

Grade: A-

Chargers sign Russell Okung

Four years and $53 million seems expensive based on Okung’s performance in Denver last year, but if the Chargers can keep him on the field, he can be an effective blocker again.

Grade: B

Ravens re-sign DT Brandon Williams

Grade: A

Jaguars sign CB A.J. Bouye

Is Bouye worth the $67.5 million he’ll be making over the next five years? He looked like it in 2016, but that was his only year as a starter.

Grade: B

Seahawks sign OT Luke Joeckel

Grade: B

Vikings sign OT Riley Reiff

Minnesota was desperate for offensive linemen, and they found one. He can play either side, and with Matt Kalil gone, he’ll probably start on the left.

Grade: A

Eagles sign WR Alshon Jeffery

Grade: A

Texans solve their Brock Osweiler problem by trading him to the Browns

More importantly, Houston gets the cap room to make a move for Tony Romo.

Grade: Give both teams an A for creativity. If Houston can’t land Romo for some reason, I’d drop them to a B, because at least they made Osweiler someone else’s problem.

Titans agree to terms with S Johnathan Cyprien

Grade: B

Cardinals sign S Antoine Bethea

At 32, it’s legit to wonder if he can be effective, but going from the dumpster fire in San Francisco to talented outfit like this could be just what he needs. He replaces Tony Jefferson.

Grade: B

Browns sign C J.C. Tretter

Grade: A

Broncos agreed to terms with G Ronald Leary

Grade: A

Washington agreed to terms with DT Terrell McClain

Grade: C

Saints agree to terms with Tedd Ginn, Jr.

If the team does end up trading Brandin Cooks, and it sounds like they will, Ginn gives them another deep threat, though probably not a guy who can pull out a 1,000-yard season like Cooks.

Grade: B

Rams sign WR Robert Woods

Woods will see his share of work in the passing game, but the Rams need a true No. 1 receiver, especially after letting Kenny Britt walk.

Grade: C

Eagles and WR Torrey Smith agree to terms

Grade: A

Patriots agree to terms with CB Stephon Gilmore

Grade: A

Rams will sign LT Andrew Whitworth

Grade: B

Buccaneers agree to terms with WR DeSean Jackson

Grade: A

Browns will sign WR Kenny Britt

This is how the Browns stay the Browns.

Grade: D

Bears expected to sign QB Mike Glennon

Maybe they’ll save enough money to re-sign Alshon Jeffery.

Grade: B

March 8

Free agency doesn’t start until 4 p.m. ET on March 9, but you can be forgiven for any confusion you had watching the free agency scoops drop from morning until night the day before that.

Giants sign WR Brandon Marshall

It was a two-year deal worth reportedly just $12 million. I would have assumed Marshall, even at 32, could’ve had more money.

Grade: A

49ers agree to terms with QB Brian Hoyer, WR Marquise Goodwin, and FB Kyle Juszczyk. They’re expected to sign WR Pierre Garcon on Thursday afternoon too.

Grade: B ... and a D for the fullback signing

Patriots acquire TE Dwayne Allen and a sixth-round pick from the Colts for a fourth-round pick.

Grade: A

The Bills signed TWO fullbacks: Mike Tolbert and Patrick DiMarco.

Buffalo’s running game has LeSean McCoy to be the speedy home run threat. Now, they have some hosses for the short-yardage power side of the equation.

On the other hand, the Bills could have used this money to help address other needs and find fullback help somewhere else.

Grade: C

Jaguars agree to terms with S Barry Church and DE Calais Campbell.

Jacksonville won the offseason championship last year. The Jags are off to another strong start this year, and they won’t have Gus Bradley coaching the team, which should do wonders.

Church replaces departing free agent Johnathan Cyprien, and will be an upgrade at strong safety. Church signed a four-year deal reportedly worth more than $6 million per season.

Grade: B

Lions agree in principle with RT Ricky Wagner.

Grade: A

Ravens agree to terms with S Tony Jefferson

Grade: A

Panthers expected to sign LT Matt Kalil

A hip injury kept him sidelined for all but two games last year. He’s reportedly back to 100 percent.

Grade: D

Ravens agree to terms with RB Danny Woodhead

Woodhead and Joe Flacco on the same team? Is it possible to win 10 games with the league’s leader in grit and an #elite quarterback? I guess we’ll find out.

Grade: B

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