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statespoll · 4 years

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Presidential Election 2020 Electoral College Map. (2020 Forecast Map/Prediction Map). Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. October 27, 2020.

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1321174108176961537

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

US Presidential Election 2020:

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden

October 27~, 2020

Trump 285 / Biden 232 / Toss up 21

Posts will continue to be updated.

Latest Polls/Party ID+VBM+In person Statistcs.

Last updated: 8:30 PM EST. October 27. 2020

MI/NC Polls + Oakaland County, Michigan(10/27)

Rating Changes:

AZ: Lean Trump-> Toss up (New AZ Poll)

MN: Toss up -> Lean Biden(Gravis Poll)

* My analysis is neutral, not biased.

Based on 2012/2016/2018 Exit Polls + Voter registration +Trends + Party ID %.

About the details below(Read more)

Based on

1) Midterm Election 2018 Fox New Voter Analysis

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

2) Exit Poll 2012/2016/2018

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

3) Latest Poll(adjustment)

4) Voter registration statistics + VBM

I. Rust Belt (MI/OH/PA/WI)

1. Michigan.

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Michigan Senate Race 2018. 3,909 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MI&type=S

Party ID with leaners: REP 43% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 652 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633174244060200960

Poll results: Biden 53% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 47.87% / Trump 47.73%. Biden +0.14%

(2) ABC/WAPO. 10/20-10/25. 789 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633218746193002496

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.0%(?) / Biden 47.2%(?). Trump +2.8%(?)

3) Michigan 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020 forecast

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+

Early voting(VBM+In person)

With Leaners: REP 49% / DEM 42% / IND 9%

Exlcude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 33% / IND 27%

VBM+in person 55% / Election Day 45% Model.

Details About My Michigan Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

TargetSmart Early Voting Model, Oakland County. Michigan. Oct. 7

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

DEM 46.7% / REP 41.7%. D+4.0%. considering ED. Trump is likely to flip

Oakland county.

(2) Rate Michigan.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Current Early Voting: Favor Trump

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Toss up

But I dunno each numbers of Trump’s REP/DEM/IND and Biden’s

REP/DEM/IND, And considering Oakland County Early voting numbers

Conclusion) MI: Tilt Trump

2. Wisconsin

1) Voter Registration Statistics

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Wisconsin Governor Race 2018. 4,683 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

(1) Party ID%, Wisconsin with leaner: REP 45% / DEM 43% / IND 13%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 664 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633089252265230336

Poll results: Biden 53% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.92% / Biden 48.5%. Trump +0.42%

(2) Gravis, 10/23. 677 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632918928174235648

Poll results: Biden 54% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 49.54% / Trump 48% Biden +1.54%

(3) RMG Research, 10/14-10/20. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.74% / Biden 47.9%. Trump +0.84%

4) Wisconsin 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

Exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

with leaners: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

VBM+in person 50% / Election Day 50% Model.

Details About My Wisconsin Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

(2) Rate Wisconsin

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail+in person: Favor Trump

according to Wisconsin TargetSmart Early Voting Model

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

WOW Counties +Racine+Sheboygan+Brown+Winnebago+Outagamie:

Ultra Trending R. 1st time/Infrequent Voters also.

Wisconsin Ealry Voting Analysis October 25. 2020

https://statespoll.com/post/633006764145737728

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Toss up

Conclusion) WI: Toss up

3. Pennsylvania

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2018. 3,925 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=PA&type=S

(1) Party ID%, Pennsylvania with leaner, PA Sen 2018

with leaner REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

2) Pennsylvania Party ID % Statistics

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/currentvotestats.xlsx

(1) October 5, 2020: Total 8,897,739

Dem: 4,168,900 (46.85%) / Rep: 3,451,514 (38.79%). D +8.06%

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 8,609,880

Dem: 4,111,325 (47.75%) / Rep: 3,270,882 (37.99%). D +9.76%

(3) November 8, 2016: Total 8,722,977

Dem: 4,217,456 (48.35%) / Rep: 3,301,182 (37.84%). D +10.51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/23-10/26. 1,145 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633134014505598976

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.23% / Biden 47.65%. Trump +2.58%

(2) Trafalgar, 10/24-10/25. 1,076 LV.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321103067933249536

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 47.6%. Trump +0.8%

(3) InsiderAdvantage, 10/25. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633091095658627072

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 45.5%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.04% / Biden 44.25%. Trump +4.79%

(4) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 655 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

Poll results(5way race): Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.2% / Biden 46.9%. Trump +1.3%

4) Pennsylvania 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment

+ VBM+In person 41% / Election Day 59% Model

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

exclude Leaner: REP 44% / DEM 40% / IND 16%

Details about my PA model

read my Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

(2) Realistic Race % 2020 forecast

White 81% / Black 10% / Latino 6% / Asian 1% / Other 2%

(3) Rate Pennsylvania.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail: Let’s see

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Tilt~Lean Trump.

Conclusion) PA: Tilt Trump

4. Ohio

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Ohio Governor Race 2018. 3,819 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 41% / IND 12%

2) Latest Poll

3) Ohio 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in Ohio

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

in 2020 it might be something like

exclude leaners: REP 39% / DEM 31% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

TargetSmart Model 10/26. 2,201,511+ Casted ballot(40.1% of 2016 Total)

REP 45.9% DEM 41.7% Other 12.5%. and REP might take leads ED

(2) Rate Ohio

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green):

Early Voting: heavily favor REP

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.69% / Hillary(DEM) 43.56%. R +8.13%

II. Other Swing States (AZ/FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/TX)

5. Arizona

1) Arizona Party ID % Statistics

Active voters only

(1) August 4, 2020: Total 3,989,214

Rep: 1,389,960(34.84%) Dem 1,293,074(32.41%). R +2.43%

https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Reigstration_2020_Primary.pdf

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 1,287,831 (34.69%) Dem 1,150,436(30.99%). R +3.7%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2018-10-01.pdf

(3) October 28, 2016: Total 3,588,466

Rep: 1,239,614(34.54%) Dem 1,091,323(30.41%). R +4.13%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2016-11-08.pdf

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Arizona Senate 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=AZ&type=S

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2012 Exit Poll 21% vote share, 2018: 13% share. 8% lower than 2012)

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Sinema 10% / McSally 89%

DEM 41% Sinema 95% / McSally 4%

IND 12% Sinema 54% / McSally 37%

Trump approval: Approve 49% / Disapprove 51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) OH Predictive Insights, 10/22-10/25. 716 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633156779701829632

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Biden 49.32% / Trump 47.85%. Biden +1.47%

4) Arizona 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year

(1) Party ID%

2018 AZGov Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners):

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona

REP 38% / DEM 31% / IND 31%

With Leaners: REP 49% / DEM 44% / IND 7%

Exclude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 35% / IND 25%

About the details read my analysis Post:

https://statespoll.com/post/633140302377598976

(2) Rate Arizona

Party ID %:

Vote-By-Mail:

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Tilt Biden

But I dunno Trump really gonna get 88% of Rep in AZ. Let’s see

Conclusion: Toss up

6. Florida

1) Florida Party ID % Statistics

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

(1) August 31, 2020: Total 14,065,627

Dem: 5,203,795 (37.0%) / Rep: 5,020,199 (35.69%). D +1.31%

(2) End of 2018: Total 13,396,622

Dem: 4,975,895 (37.14%) / Rep: 4,718,720 (35.22%). D +1.92%

(3) End of 2016: Total 12,959,185

Dem: 4,905,705 (37.86%) / Rep: 4,575,277 (35.31%). D +2.55%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Florida Senate Race 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=FL&type=S

Party ID with leaner: REP 46% / DEM 42% / IND 14%

3) Latest Poll

(1) FAU, 10/24-10/25. 937 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633132642007711744

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 50.96% / Biden 45.07%. Trump +5.89%

(2) Susquehanna(Rep pollster), 10/23-10/25. 400 LV.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Toplines-Florida-CFAG-Oct252020.pdf

Poll results: Trump 49% / Biden 44% / Jorgensen 2%. Trump +5%

(3) Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,228 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632963089572282369

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 52.6% / Biden 45.3%. Trump +7.3%

4) Florida 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

+Early Voting(VBM+in person)

2018 FL GOV Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners): REP 38% / DEM 33% /IND 29%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

Exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Details of My FL Party ID model,

Read My Analysis post: https://statespoll.com/post/633155102813847552/

(2) Rate Florida.

Party ID % Trends:(Nov 2016: D +2.5% -> Sept 2020: D +1.3%)

Vote-By-Mail:

Florida VBM+in person mid results (Oct. 13)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/florida-results

Mail-in ballots requested: 5,629,666

DEM 45.3% / REP 31.3% / Other 23.4%

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 1,780,584

DEM 50.8% / REP 29.2% / Other 20%

Poll % (adjusted %): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Lean~Likely Trump

7. Nevada

1) Nevada Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics

(1) Oct 1, 2020: Total 1,742,477

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8998

Dem 654,724 (37.57%) Rep 566,265(32.5%) D+5.07%

(2) Jan 3, 2019: Total 1.582 Million

Dem 607.4k(38.39%) Rep 528.7k(33.42%) D+4.97%

(3) Oct 21, 2016: Total 1,464,819

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

Dem 577,679(39.44%) Rep 488,861(33.37%) D+6.07%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Nevada Senate Race 2018. 3,400 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=NV&type=S

Party ID with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%s

3) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/23-10/26, 809 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633152355607707648

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 43% / Jorgensen 3%

Adjusted %: Biden 49.1% / Trump 47.1% / Jorgensen 1.6%. Biden +2.0%

4) Nevada 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: DEM 33% / REP 29% / IND 38% with leaners: REP 47.5% / DEM 43% / IND 9.5%

(2) Rate Nevada

1) Party ID %:

2) Poll %: Tilt~Lean Biden

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

My Analysis Post(Nevada Early Voting):

https://statespoll.com/post/633151892259831808

Conclusion: Tilt Biden

8. Minnesota

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Minnesota Special Senate Race 2018. 4,201 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MN&type=S2

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner, MN Special Sen 2018

with leaners: DEM 46% / REP 40% / IND 14%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Gravis, 10/24-10/26. 657 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633157198621622272

Poll results : Biden 53% / Trump 39%

Adjusted %: Biden 50.13% / Trump 42.15%. Biden +7.98%

3) Minnesota 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID %

Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

With Leaner: REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

Exclude Leaner: REP 38% / DEM 35% / IND 27%

Detials: https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

(2) Rate Minnesota

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

=> Oct 24: DEM 47.4% / REP 29.9% / IND + Other 22.7%

=> Oct 27: DEM 47.4% / REP 30.0% / IND + Other 22.6%

Poll %: Likely Dem

Conclusion: Lean Dem

9. North Carolina

1) Party Statistics Trends %

2016 Results: TRUMP 49.83% / Hillary 46.17%

Party registration statistics Trends.

2016->2020 Dem’s margins reduced -3.82%

(1) October 10, 2020: Total 7,242,242

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F10%2F2020

Dem 2,585,688 (35.70%) / Rep 2,185,854 (30.18%). D +5.52%

(2) November, 8th 2016: Total 6,918,150

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=11%2F08%2F2016

Dem 2,733,188(39.51%) / Rep 2,086,942(30.17%). D +9.34%

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA, 10/23-10/26. 627 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

Poll results : Trump 48% / Biden 48%

Adjusted %: Trump 52.6% / Biden 44.7%. Trump +7.9%

(2) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 647 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633176589443710976

Poll results : Biden 49% / Trump 48%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.78% / Biden 46.79%. Trump +3.99%

(3) Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,022 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/632816505386647552

Poll results : Biden 51% / Trump 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.98% / Biden 46.95%. Trump +4.03%

3) North Carolina Forecast

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends

VBM+In person(60%) DEM 55.5% / REP 38.5% / IND 6%

EDay(40%) REP 65% DEM 25% IND 10%

My Model(With leaners): REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND7%

exclude leaners: REP 35% / DEM 30% / IND 35%

Details of My NC Party ID Model.(with leaners)

Read my post: https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

(2) Rate NC

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Party ID % Trends: Favor REP(Nov 2016: D +9.3% -> Oct 2020: D +5.5%)

Current Early voting REP is narrowing gap radically

VBM: favor REP

Conclusion: Lean Trump

10. Georgia

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Georgia Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% DEM 41% IND 11%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs 10/23-10/26, 1,041 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633133585426251776

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 46%

Adjusted: Trump 51.7% / Biden 46.3%. Tump +5.4%

(2) Yougov 10/20-10/23, 1,090 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632961884585426944

Poll results: Trump 48% / Biden 48%

Adjusted: Trump 53.7% / Biden 44.1%. Trump +9.6%

(3) AJC 10/14-10/23, 1,145 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633036015536406528

Poll results: Biden 46.5% / Trump 46.2%

Adjusted: Trump 50.85% / Biden 43.4%. Trump +6.45%

(4) Landmark 10/21, 500 LV.

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%

Notable results: 72% GA White voters are favoring Trump.

3) Georgia 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID %

Based on foxnews voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

(2) Rate Georgia

Party ID %: Likely REP

Early Voting: Huge Favor GOP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

11. Iowa

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Iowa Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2016 Exit Poll 34% vote share, 2018: 23% share. 11% lower than 2016)

Final results: Kim Reynolds(Rep) 50.3% / Fred Hubbell(Dem) 47.5%

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Hubbell 11% Reynolds 87%

DEM 36% Hubbell 94% Reynolds 5%

IND 17%

1) Iowa Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html

(1) September 1, 2020: Total 2,027,777

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CoSept20.pdf

Dem 684,093 (33.73%) Rep 691,239 (34.09%) R +0.36%

(2) November 1, 2016: Total 1,996,153

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf

Dem 629,081 (31.51%) Rep 662,167(33.17%) R +1.66%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson, 10/19-10/21. 435 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632849562979188736

Poll Results: Trump 48% / Biden 48% (Push undecided)

Adjusted: Trump 51.6% / Biden 44.2%. Trump +7.4%

(2) InsiderAdvantage, 10/18-10/19. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632551635927941120

Poll Results: Biden 45.1% / Trump 44.6%

Adjusted: Trump 52.7% / Biden 42.7%. Trump +10%

3) Iowa 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 30% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 53% / DEM 36% / IND 11%

(2) Rate Iowa

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.15 / Hillary(DEM) 41.74% R +9.41%

12. Texas

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Texas Senate Race 2018. 3,747 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=TX&type=S

REP 49% / dem 41% / IND 10%. Final Results: Cruz 50.9% / Beto 48.3%

Current Early Voting numbers.

TargetSmart Model :

10/21/2020 REP 50.3% / DEM 40.9% / IND 8.8%

10/25/2020 REP 51.9% / DEM 38.9% / IND 9.2%

Considering ED might be : REP 52%+ / DEM 39% or less / IND 9%

(2018: R +8% -> 2020: Might be R +13% or more. )

2) Latest Poll

(1) Yougov, 10/13-10/20. 1,000 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633051947607490561

Poll Results: Trump 50.0% / Biden 44.7%

Adjusted: Trump 54.1% / Biden 43.87%. Trump +10.23%

III. NH/ME(Semi Blue States ME2/NE2: Swing district)

13. Maine

Maine Governor Race 2018. 2,734 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=ME&type=G

Party ID%(With Leaners): DEM 41% / REP 41% / IND 18%

ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

1) ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

(1) 7/14/2020: Total 1,063,383

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active.pdf

DEM 386,786(36.4%) / REP 295,122(27.8%). D +8.6%

(2) 11/6/2018: Total 1,054,952

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active1118.pdf

DEM 348,657(33.05%) / REP 287,955(27.3%). D +5.75%

(3) 11/8/2016: Total 1,058,444

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/r-e-active-11-8-16.pdf

DEM 338,352(32.0%) / REP 285,320(27.0%). D +5.0%

2) Maine 2020 Forecast

ME-2: Lean Trump

My Post(ME-2): https://statespoll.com/post/632560185693618176

ME-1: Solid Biden. ME(Statewide): Nearly Solid Biden.

14. NE-2 District

Current Early Voting TargetSmart Model:

10/27 DEM 48.7% / REP 45.3% / IND 6.0%

*FYI 2016 EV(58,667 Votes): DEM 52.5% / REP 42.0% / IND 5.6%

I guess in the end, with Election Day: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Conclusion: Tilt~Lean Trump

#electoral map #election 2020 #electoral college map 2020

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unabashedeggspiebear-blog · 4 years

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Oakland, I'm home！#oakaland #landscape #life

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lolas-african-apparel-blog · 6 years

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No Wahala Wednesday, tonight in Oakland at Liege! Party with @unitedtribesof_africa the Diaspora 👑 #nowahalawednesdays #liege #oakaland (at Lola's African Apparel)

#liege #nowahalawednesdays #oakaland

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spia104reporteilegal · 6 years

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Derras de barras se distribuye en Estados Unidos #bayarea #oakaland #sanfrancisco #califaz #reporteilegalUSA #wilsonposada @reporteilegal @shobiz1218 #DetrasDeBarras #spia104 #represent #mycrew #bigprops @dermafilia_tattoo #undergroundsound #hiphopmexicano #familia

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citizenzain · 7 years

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Hello dancing friends! I'm stoked to be part of this local sound collective of talented DJs, and we've put together a fun party happening this Friday, Sept 15th in East Oakland. The intention is to turn this into a regularly monthly party so your presence and support is greatly appreciated! Very affordable cover at the door but let me if u wanna DM I can out u on da list 💌😎🙌 #danceparty #oakaland #eastbay #localDJs #acidhouse #deephouse #techhouse #electronic #dancemusic #housemusic #housemusiclovers #dancevibes #goodvibes #eastoakland

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graphixmain · 7 years

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LETTTTSSSSSS GOOOOOOO!!!!! 🖌: @tysonbeck #nbachamps #warriors #gsw #bayarea #sanfrancisco #oakaland

#oakaland #gsw #warriors #nbachamps #bayarea #sanfrancisco

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hollaatbrothad · 6 years

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Who wants to see @blegit72 on #NOVULTURES tag him and let him know! #brodeezytaughtme #Blegit #Thesavage #originalsavage #sickwitit #vallejo #oakaland #eastoakland #bayarea #realhiphop #hiphoplegend #slap #boy #wakeshitup # #media #podcast #connectedandrespected #slapsondeck #journalism #legend #livinglegend #theclick #e40 #ombpeezy #nephthepharoah #dshot #sugat #cellycell

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manicwhale · 7 years

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Bus stop in Downtown Oakland, California.

#bus stop #oakaland #bay area #california #photographers on tumblr #leica x typ 113

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statespoll · 4 years

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Presidential Election 2020 Electoral College Map. (2020 Forecast Map/Prediction Map). Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. October 26, 2020.

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1320912406466408448

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

US Presidential Election 2020:

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden

October 26~, 2020

Trump 302 / Biden 216 / Toss up 20

Posts will continue to be updated.

Latest Polls/Party ID+VBM+In person Statistcs.

Last updated: 9 AM EST. October 27. 2020

FL/GA/PA Polls + Oakaland County, Michigan(10/27)

Rating Changes:

WI: Tilt Trump->Toss up, PA: Toss up-> Tilt Trump

* My analysis is neutral, not biased.

Based on 2012/2016/2018 Exit Polls + Voter registration +Trends + Party ID %.

About the details below(Read more)

Based on

1) Midterm Election 2018 Fox New Voter Analysis

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

2) Exit Poll 2012/2016/2018

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

3) Latest Poll(adjustment)

4) Voter registration statistics + VBM

I. Rust Belt (MI/OH/PA/WI)

1. Michigan.

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Michigan Senate Race 2018. 3,909 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MI&type=S

Party ID with leaners: REP 43% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Gravis, 10/24. 679 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632961349208719360

Poll results: Biden 55% / Trump 42%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.44% / Biden 48.26%. Trump +0.18%

(2) PPP(Dem Pollster), 10/21-10/22. 804 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 43%

Notable Results, MISen, Among Black voters: Peter 70% / James 19%

Adjusted %: Trump 47.5% / Biden 45.6%. Trump +1.9%

(3) Trafalgar, 10/15-10/18. 1,034 LV.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/1001/attachments/original/1603307463/RSTP_MI_'20_Oct_Press_Report.pdf

Poll results: Trump 46.7% / Biden 44.9%. Trump +1.8%

3) Michigan 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020 forecast

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+

Early voting(VBM+In person)

With Leaners: REP 49% / DEM 42% / IND 9%

Exlcude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 33% / IND 27%

VBM+in person 55% / Election Day 45% Model.

Details About My Michigan Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

TargetSmart Early Voting Model, Oakland County. Michigan. Oct. 7

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

DEM 46.7% / REP 41.7%. D+4.0%. considering ED. Trump is likely to flip

Oakland county.

(2) Rate Michigan.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Current Early Voting: Favor Trump

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Lean Trump

Conclusion) MI: Tilt~Lean Trump

2. Wisconsin

1) Voter Registration Statistics

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Wisconsin Governor Race 2018. 4,683 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

(1) Party ID%, Wisconsin with leaner: REP 45% / DEM 43% / IND 13%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 664 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633089252265230336

Poll results: Biden 53% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.92% / Biden 48.5%. Trump +0.42%

(2) Gravis, 10/23. 677 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632918928174235648

Poll results: Biden 54% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 49.54% / Trump 48% Biden +1.54%

(3) RMG Research, 10/14-10/20. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.74% / Biden 47.9%. Trump +0.84%

4) Wisconsin 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

Exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

with leaners: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

VBM+in person 50% / Election Day 50% Model.

Details About My Wisconsin Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

(2) Rate Wisconsin

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail+in person: Favor Trump

according to Wisconsin TargetSmart Early Voting Model

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

WOW Counties +Racine+Sheboygan+Brown+Winnebago+Outagamie:

Ultra Trending R. 1st time/Infrequent Voters also.

Wisconsin Ealry Voting Analysis October 25. 2020

https://statespoll.com/post/633006764145737728

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Toss up

Conclusion) WI: Toss up

3. Pennsylvania

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2018. 3,925 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=PA&type=S

(1) Party ID%, Pennsylvania with leaner, PA Sen 2018

with leaner REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

2) Pennsylvania Party ID % Statistics

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/currentvotestats.xlsx

(1) October 5, 2020: Total 8,897,739

Dem: 4,168,900 (46.85%) / Rep: 3,451,514 (38.79%). D +8.06%

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 8,609,880

Dem: 4,111,325 (47.75%) / Rep: 3,270,882 (37.99%). D +9.76%

(3) November 8, 2016: Total 8,722,977

Dem: 4,217,456 (48.35%) / Rep: 3,301,182 (37.84%). D +10.51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/23-10/26. 1,145 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633134014505598976

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.23% / Biden 47.65%. Trump +2.58%

(2) Trafalgar, 10/24-10/25. 1,076 LV.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321103067933249536

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 47.6%. Trump +0.8%

(3) InsiderAdvantage, 10/25. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633091095658627072

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 45.5%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.04% / Biden 44.25%. Trump +4.79%

(4) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 655 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

Poll results(5way race): Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.2% / Biden 46.9%. Trump +1.3%

4) Pennsylvania 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment

+ VBM+In person 41% / Election Day 59% Model

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

exclude Leaner: REP 44% / DEM 40% / IND 16%

Details about my PA model

read my Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

(2) Realistic Race % 2020 forecast

White 81% / Black 10% / Latino 6% / Asian 1% / Other 2%

(3) Rate Pennsylvania.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail: Let’s see

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Tilt~Lean Trump.

Conclusion) PA: Tilt Trump

4. Ohio

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Ohio Governor Race 2018. 3,819 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 41% / IND 12%

2) Latest Poll

3) Ohio 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in Ohio

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

in 2020 it might be something like

exclude leaners: REP 39% / DEM 31% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

TargetSmart Model 10/26. 2,201,511+ Casted ballot(40.1% of 2016 Total)

REP 45.9% DEM 41.7% Other 12.5%. and REP might take leads ED

(2) Rate Ohio

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green):

Early Voting: heavily favor REP

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.69% / Hillary(DEM) 43.56%. R +8.13%

II. Other Swing States (AZ/FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/TX)

5. Arizona

1) Arizona Party ID % Statistics

Arizona Voter Registration %

10/28/2016: REP +148,291

10/20/2020: REP +113,896

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1318572169748676608

According to Twitter user Billy Newby

-----------

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1318575045141254144

---------

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

Active voters only

(1) August 4, 2020: Total 3,989,214

Rep: 1,389,960(34.84%) Dem 1,293,074(32.41%). R +2.43%

https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Reigstration_2020_Primary.pdf

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 1,287,831 (34.69%) Dem 1,150,436(30.99%). R +3.7%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2018-10-01.pdf

(3) October 28, 2016: Total 3,588,466

Rep: 1,239,614(34.54%) Dem 1,091,323(30.41%). R +4.13%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2016-11-08.pdf

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Arizona Senate 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=AZ&type=S

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2012 Exit Poll 21% vote share, 2018: 13% share. 8% lower than 2012)

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Sinema 10% / McSally 89%

DEM 41% Sinema 95% / McSally 4%

IND 12% Sinema 54% / McSally 37%

Trump approval: Approve 49% / Disapprove 51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 10/19-10/22. 500 LV.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Toplines-ArizonaStatewide-CFAG-Oct2020.pdf

Poll results: Trump 47% / Biden 46%. Trump +1%

(2) Ipsos 10/14-10/21. 658 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632656270366785536

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.8% / Biden 45.9%. Trump +4.9%

4) Arizona 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year

(1) Party ID%

2018 AZGov Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners):

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona

REP 38% / DEM 31% / IND 31%

With Leaners: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Exclude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

About the details read my analysis Post:

https://statespoll.com/post/632547841755217920

(2) Rate Arizona

Party ID %:

Vote-By-Mail: Current EV in AZ. Trending R(Including Maricopa county)

Favor Trump

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Voter registration: Considering Turnout(77%ish) Dem narrowed gaps

about 0.3%ish, 2016 was Trump +3.5%.

Trump's 2016 margins 3.5-0.3%= 3.2%

So Arizona Voter registration number is still favor Trump.

Conclusion: Lean Trump

6. Florida

1) Florida Party ID % Statistics

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

(1) August 31, 2020: Total 14,065,627

Dem: 5,203,795 (37.0%) / Rep: 5,020,199 (35.69%). D +1.31%

(2) End of 2018: Total 13,396,622

Dem: 4,975,895 (37.14%) / Rep: 4,718,720 (35.22%). D +1.92%

(3) End of 2016: Total 12,959,185

Dem: 4,905,705 (37.86%) / Rep: 4,575,277 (35.31%). D +2.55%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Florida Senate Race 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=FL&type=S

Party ID with leaner: REP 46% / DEM 42% / IND 14%

3) Latest Poll

(1) FAU, 10/24-10/25. 937 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633132642007711744

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 50.96% / Biden 45.07%. Trump +5.89%

(2) Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,228 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632963089572282369

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 52.6% / Biden 45.3%. Trump +7.3%

(3) Rasmussen, 10/20-10/21. 800 LV

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/florida_trump_49_biden_46

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%. Trump +4.0%

(4) St. Pete Polls, 10/21-10/22. 2,527 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632773010577866752

Poll results: Biden 48.9% / Trump 47.4%

Notable results, Among Hispanic: Biden 49.9% / Trump 47.3%.

Biden +2.6% (2016 FL Exit Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 62% / Trump 35%.)

Adjusted %: Trump 49.1% / Biden 47.2%. Trump +1.9%

4) Florida 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

+Early Voting(VBM+in person)

2018 FL GOV Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners): REP 38% / DEM 33% /IND 29%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

Exclude leaners: REP 42% / DEM 32% / IND 26%

with leaners: REP 53% / DEM 40% / IND 7%

Details of My FL Party ID model,

Read My Analysis post: https://statespoll.com/post/632594327193993216

(2) Rate Florida.

Party ID % Trends:(Nov 2016: D +2.5% -> Sept 2020: D +1.3%)

Vote-By-Mail:

Florida VBM+in person mid results (Oct. 13)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/florida-results

Mail-in ballots requested: 5,629,666

DEM 45.3% / REP 31.3% / Other 23.4%

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 1,780,584

DEM 50.8% / REP 29.2% / Other 20%

Poll % (adjusted %): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Lean~Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 49.02% / Hillary(DEM) 47.82%. R +1.2%

7. Nevada

1) Nevada Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics

(1) Oct 1, 2020: Total 1,742,477

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8998

Dem 654,724 (37.57%) Rep 566,265(32.5%) D+5.07%

(2) Jan 3, 2019: Total 1.582 Million

Dem 607.4k(38.39%) Rep 528.7k(33.42%) D+4.97%

(3) Oct 21, 2016: Total 1,464,819

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

Dem 577,679(39.44%) Rep 488,861(33.37%) D+6.07%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Nevada Senate Race 2018. 3,400 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=NV&type=S

Party ID with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%s

3) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/17-10/20. 712 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632594187760664576

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.175% / Biden 48.875%. Trump +0.3%

4) Nevada 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: DEM 33% / REP 29% / IND 38% with leaners: REP 47.5% / DEM 43% / IND 9.5%

(2) Rate Nevada

1) Party ID %:

2) Poll %: Toss up

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

Nevada VBM. Oct. 14 Returned: 51,847

DEM 53.2% / REP 24.4% / Other 21.7%

=> Oct. 21: DEM 50.2% / REP 41.7% IND 8.1%

=> Oct. 24: DEM 47.3% / REP 44.6% / IND 8.1%

My Analysis Post(Nevada Early Voting):

https://statespoll.com/post/632915230244175872

NV Early voting is radically Trending R.

Conclusion: Tilt Trump

* 2016 Results: Hillary(DEM) 47.92% / TRUMP(REP) 45.5% / D+2.42%

8. Minnesota

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Minnesota Special Senate Race 2018. 4,201 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MN&type=S2

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner, MN Special Sen 2018

with leaners: DEM 46% / REP 40% / IND 14%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/17-10/20. 840 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

Poll results : Biden 53% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 48.96% / Trump 48.64%. Biden +0.32%

(2) Minnesota: KSTP/SurveyUSA 10/16-10/20. 625 LV Smith vs Lewis

https://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-smith-lewis-senate-race-now-a-dead-heat-october-21-2020/5901843/?cat=1

Smith 43% / Lewis 42%. Smith +1%

3) Minnesota 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID %

Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

With Leaner: REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

Exclude Leaner: REP 38% / DEM 35% / IND 27%

Detials: https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

(2) Rate Minnesota

Poll: Tilt DEM~Lean DEM

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Last updated Oct. 20

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 936,493

DEM 48.5% / REP 28.9% / IND+OTHER 22.6%

=> OCT 21: DEM 48.0% / REP 29.3% / IND+Other

=> Oct 24: DEM 47.4% / REP 29.9% / IND + Other 22.7%

Poll %: Toss up

Minnesota early voting analysis post:

https://statespoll.com/post/632227687289765888

Conclusion: Toss up

9. North Carolina

1) Party Statistics Trends %

2016 Results: TRUMP 49.83% / Hillary 46.17%

Party registration statistics Trends.

2016->2020 Dem’s margins reduced -3.82%

(1) October 10, 2020: Total 7,242,242

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F10%2F2020

Dem 2,585,688 (35.70%) / Rep 2,185,854 (30.18%). D +5.52%

(2) November, 8th 2016: Total 6,918,150

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=11%2F08%2F2016

Dem 2,733,188(39.51%) / Rep 2,086,942(30.17%). D +9.34%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,022 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/632816505386647552

Poll results : Biden 51% / Trump 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.98% / Biden 46.95%. Trump +4.03%

(2) Trafalgar, 10/20-10/22. 1,098 LV

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F50GhQFuthpATgxIiDqADXjmgk_iNFBm/view

Poll results : Trump 48.8% / Biden 46.0%. Trump +2.8%

(3) Ipsos, 10/14-10/20. 660 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

Poll results : Biden 49% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.8% / Biden 46.8%. Trump +3.0%

(4) Data for Progress, 10/15-10/18. 929 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632816505386647552

Poll results : Biden 48% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.5% / Biden 44.6%. Trump +6.9%

3) North Carolina Forecast

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends

VBM+In person(60%) DEM 55.5% / REP 38.5% / IND 6%

EDay(40%) REP 65% DEM 25% IND 10%

My Model(With leaners): REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND7%

exclude leaners: REP 35% / DEM 30% / IND 35%

Details of My NC Party ID Model.(with leaners)

Read my post: https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

(2) Rate NC

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Party ID % Trends: Favor REP(Nov 2016: D +9.3% -> Oct 2020: D +5.5%)

Current Early voting REP is narrowing gap radically

VBM: favor REP

Conclusion: Lean Trump

10. Georgia

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Georgia Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% DEM 41% IND 11%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs 10/23-10/26, 1,041 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633133585426251776

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 46%

Adjusted: Trump 51.7% / Biden 46.3%. Tump +5.4%

(2) Yougov 10/20-10/23, 1,090 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632961884585426944

Poll results: Trump 48% / Biden 48%

Adjusted: Trump 53.7% / Biden 44.1%. Trump +9.6%

(3) AJC 10/14-10/23, 1,145 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633036015536406528

Poll results: Biden 46.5% / Trump 46.2%

Adjusted: Trump 50.85% / Biden 43.4%. Trump +6.45%

(4) Landmark 10/21, 500 LV.

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%

Notable results: 72% GA White voters are favoring Trump.

3) Georgia 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID %

Based on foxnews voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

(2) Rate Georgia

Party ID %: Likely REP

Early Voting: Huge Favor GOP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

11. Iowa

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Iowa Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2016 Exit Poll 34% vote share, 2018: 23% share. 11% lower than 2016)

Final results: Kim Reynolds(Rep) 50.3% / Fred Hubbell(Dem) 47.5%

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Hubbell 11% Reynolds 87%

DEM 36% Hubbell 94% Reynolds 5%

IND 17%

1) Iowa Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html

(1) September 1, 2020: Total 2,027,777

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CoSept20.pdf

Dem 684,093 (33.73%) Rep 691,239 (34.09%) R +0.36%

(2) November 1, 2016: Total 1,996,153

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf

Dem 629,081 (31.51%) Rep 662,167(33.17%) R +1.66%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson, 10/19-10/21. 435 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632849562979188736

Poll Results: Trump 48% / Biden 48% (Push undecided)

Adjusted: Trump 51.6% / Biden 44.2%. Trump +7.4%

(2) InsiderAdvantage, 10/18-10/19. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632551635927941120

Poll Results: Biden 45.1% / Trump 44.6%

Adjusted: Trump 52.7% / Biden 42.7%. Trump +10%

3) Iowa 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 30% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 53% / DEM 36% / IND 11%

(2) Rate Iowa

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.15 / Hillary(DEM) 41.74% R +9.41%

12. Texas

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Texas Senate Race 2018. 3,747 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=TX&type=S

REP 49% / dem 41% / IND 10%. Final Results: Cruz 50.9% / Beto 48.3%

Current Early Voting numbers.

TargetSmart Model :

10/21/2020 REP 50.3% / DEM 40.9% / IND 8.8%

10/25/2020 REP 51.9% / DEM 38.9% / IND 9.2%

Considering ED might be : REP 52%+ / DEM 39% or less / IND 9%

(2018: R +8% -> 2020: Might be R +13% or more. )

2) Latest Poll

(1) Yougov, 10/13-10/20. 1,000 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633051947607490561

Poll Results: Trump 50.0% / Biden 44.7%

Adjusted: Trump 54.1% / Biden 43.87%. Trump +10.23%

(2) University of Texas at Tyler, 10/13-10/20. 925 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633022385368547329

Poll Results: Biden 48% / Trump 45%

Adjusted: Trump 50.84% / Biden 45.54%. Trump +5.3%

Conclusion: Solid Trump.

III. NH/ME(Semi Blue States ME2/NE2: Swing district)

13. Maine

Maine Governor Race 2018. 2,734 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=ME&type=G

Party ID%(With Leaners): DEM 41% / REP 41% / IND 18%

ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

1) ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

(1) 7/14/2020: Total 1,063,383

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active.pdf

DEM 386,786(36.4%) / REP 295,122(27.8%). D +8.6%

(2) 11/6/2018: Total 1,054,952

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active1118.pdf

DEM 348,657(33.05%) / REP 287,955(27.3%). D +5.75%

(3) 11/8/2016: Total 1,058,444

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/r-e-active-11-8-16.pdf

DEM 338,352(32.0%) / REP 285,320(27.0%). D +5.0%

2) Maine 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: DEM 35% / REP 32% / IND 33%

with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%

(2) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

ME-2: Lean Trump

My Post(ME-2): https://statespoll.com/post/632560185693618176

ME-1: Solid Biden. ME(Statewide): Nearly Solid Biden.

14. NE-2 District

Current Early Voting TargetSmart Model:

10/22 DEM 49.8% / REP 44.4% / IND 5.8%

10/26 DEM 48.8% / REP 45.3% / IND 5.9%

*FYI 2016 EV(58,667 Votes): DEM 52.5% / REP 42.0% / IND 5.6%

Plus REP is narrowing EV Gaps day by day

I guess in the end, with Election Day: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Conclusion: Tilt~Lean Trump

#Electoral map #Electoral college map #electoral map 2020 #electoral college map 2020 #forecast map #prediction map #election 2020

1 note · View note

hypokrat-blog · 11 years

Text

its a beautiful day in the bay

and i am going up to pano to checkout the view and smoke some blunts with tha homegirls. (if you live in the bay && haven't checked out the view up at panoramic way you need to GET YOUR LIFE TOGETHER && go do that shit!) unfortunately for me, i have one final, boring ass art history class this evening..... tempted not to go but whatever ill just have a whiskey sour before hand && then i will doodle and write poems during lecture.

its amazing what sunshine can do to me <3

//happysunshinerant

#personal #west coast #bay lyfe #bay area #oakaland #whats really good tho

0 notes

statespoll · 4 years

Text

Presidential Election 2020 Electoral College Map. (2020 Forecast Map/Prediction Map). Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. October 22, 2020.

My Twitter:

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

US Presidential Election 2020:

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden

October 22~, 2020

Trump 286 / Biden 216 / Toss up 36

Posts will continue to be updated.

Latest Polls/Party ID+VBM+In person Statistcs.

Last updated: 9 PM EST. October 24. 2020

PA Poll + Oakland County(Michigan)

Rating Changes:

* My analysis is neutral, not biased.

Based on 2012/2016/2018 Exit Polls + Voter registration +Trends + Party ID %.

About the details below(Read more)

Based on

1) Midterm Election 2018 Fox New Voter Analysis

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

2) Exit Poll 2012/2016/2018

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

3) Latest Poll(adjustment)

4) Voter registration statistics + VBM

I. Rust Belt (MI/OH/PA/WI)

1. Michigan.

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Michigan Senate Race 2018. 3,909 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MI&type=S

Party ID with leaners: REP 43% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2) Latest Poll

(1) PPP(Dem Pollster), 10/21-10/22. 804 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 43%

Notable Results, MISen, Among Black voters: Peter 70% / James 19%

Adjusted %: Trump 47.5% / Biden 45.6%. Trump +1.9%

(2) ZIA Poll, 10/11-10/18. 2,851 LV.

https://mirsnews.com/pdfs/poll_cross_tabs/1603227211.pdf

Poll results: Trump 49% / Biden 45%. Trump +4%

(3) Epic-MRA, 10/15-10/19. 600 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

Poll results: Biden 48% / Trump 39%

Adjusted %: Trump 44.4% / Biden 43.2%. Trump +1.2%

(4) Data for Progress, 10/15-10/18. 830 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.89% / Biden 46.15%. Trump +5.74%

3) Michigan 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020 forecast

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+

Early voting(VBM+In person)

with leaner: REP 49% / DEM 43% / IND 8%

Exclude Leaner: REP 38% / DEM 34% / IND 28%

VBM+in person 55% / Election Day 45% Model.

Details About My Michigan Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

(2) Rate Michigan.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Current Vote-By-Mail: Favor Trump

According to https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

* Oakland County: 292,584+ voters casted ballot

(About 44% of 2016 Total votes)

DEM 46.5% REP 41.2% IND 12.3% <- October 23. 2020

REP even takes the leads among did not vote in 2016 group

Total: 70,601. REP 27,725 (39.3%) > DEM 27,113 (38.4%)

Considering ED(45% Share) might favor Trump.

(sth like T 60 B 30 Margins) I guess Trump might flip Oakland County.

(FYI even 2018 John james got 42.4% in Oakaland. considering

3rd parties and Biden doesnt have INC advantges like Stabenow and

Early voting favor Trump. Trump just needs to improve James+6.2%ish

= flip Oakaland county.)

Kent/Macomb: REP takes the leads in Early voting + consider ED

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Lean Trump

Conclusion) MI: Tilt~Lean Trump

2. Wisconsin

1) Voter Registration Statistics

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Wisconsin Governor Race 2018. 4,683 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

(1) Party ID%, Wisconsin with leaner: REP 45% / DEM 43% / IND 13%

3) Latest Poll

(1) RMG Research, 10/14-10/20. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.74% / Biden 47.9%. Trump +0.84%

(2) Ipsos, 10/13-10/19. 663 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632453769149480960

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 45% / Joregensen 2% / West 1%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.3% / Biden 47.0%. Trump +2.3%

(3) Trafalgar, 10/14-10/16. 1,051 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wi-pres-1020/

Poll results : Biden 47.6% / Trump 46.3%. Biden +1.3%

(4) Yougov, 10/13-10/16. 1,112 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632328485513445376

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.7% / Biden 47.9%. Tump +2.8%

4) Wisconsin 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

Exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

with leaners: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

VBM+in person 50% / Election Day 50% Model.

Details About My Wisconsin Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

(2) Rate Wisconsin

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail+in person: Favor Trump

according to Wisconsin TargetSmart Early Voting Model

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

WOW Counties +Racine+Sheboygan+Brown+Winnebago+Outagamie:

Ultra Trending R. 1st time/Infrequent Voters also.

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Tilt Trump

Conclusion) WI: Tilt Trump

3. Pennsylvania

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2018. 3,925 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=PA&type=S

(1) Party ID%, Pennsylvania with leaner, PA Sen 2018

with leaner REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

2) Pennsylvania Party ID % Statistics

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/currentvotestats.xlsx

(1) October 5, 2020: Total 8,897,739

Dem: 4,168,900 (46.85%) / Rep: 3,451,514 (38.79%). D +8.06%

(2) September 21, 2020: Total 8,800,420

Dem: 4,138,254 (47.02%) / Rep: 3,405,240 (38.69%). D +8.33%

(3) November 6, 2018: Total 8,609,880

Dem: 4,111,325 (47.75%) / Rep: 3,270,882 (37.99%). D +9.76%

(4) November 8, 2016: Total 8,722,977

Dem: 4,217,456 (48.35%) / Rep: 3,301,182 (37.84%). D +10.51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Gravis, 10/23. 602 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted: Trump 48.57% / Biden 46.84%. Trump +1.73%

(2) Muhlenberg College, 10/13-10/20. 416 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632773657270353921

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.4% / Biden 46.4%. Trump +3.0%

(3) Suffolk, 10/15-10/19. 500 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632585614659911680

Poll results: Biden 48.6% / Trump 42.4%

Adjusted %: Biden 46.4% / Trump 45.7%. Biden +0.7%

(4) Ipsos, 10/13-10/19. 653 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: : Trump 49.4% / Biden 45.2%. Trump +4.2%

4) Pennsylvania 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment

+ VBM+In person 41% / Election Day 59% Model

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

exclude Leaner: REP 44% / DEM 40% / IND 16%

Details about my PA model

read my Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

(2) Realistic Race % 2020 forecast

White 81% / Black 10% / Latino 6% / Asian 1% / Other 2%

(3) Rate Pennsylvania.

1) Party ID %: slightly faovr REP

2) Vote-By-Mail: Republican is narrowing gaps.

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Tilt R

Conclusion) PA: Toss up

4. Ohio

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Ohio Governor Race 2018. 3,819 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 41% / IND 12%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Morning Consult 10/2-10/11, 2,283 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/631874761949118464

Poll results: Trump 49% / Biden 46%.

Adjusted %: Trump 50.86% / Biden 45.08%. Trump +5.78%

(2) Yougov, 9/30-10/2. 1,114 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/631093235366920192

Poll results: Trump 47% / Biden 47%.

Adjusted %(by statespoll):Trump 50.4% / Biden 45.5%.

3) Ohio 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in Ohio

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

in 2020 it might be something like

exclude leaners: REP 39% / DEM 31% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

(2) Rate Ohio

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Early Voting heavily favor REP

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.69% / Hillary(DEM) 43.56%. R +8.13%

II. Other Swing States (AZ/FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/TX)

5. Arizona

1) Arizona Party ID % Statistics

Arizona Voter Registration %

10/28/2016: REP +148,291

10/20/2020: REP +113,896

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1318572169748676608

According to Twitter user Billy Newby

-----------

Billy Newby@mantlehog

Replying to @GuruLidar and @JaredKi62866526I

think the final GOP advantage will be 135-140k, but that might be

conservative considering the counties outstanding. Very close to 2016 once the

remaining counties are factored in.

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1318575045141254144

----------

DEM narrowed gap 10K. with 77%ish turnout (2016: 74.17%)

Dem actually narrowed Approximately 7.7K, abou less than 0.3%ish of

Total votes. (2016: Trump +3.5%)

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

Active voters only

(1) August 4, 2020: Total 3,989,214

Rep: 1,389,960(34.84%) Dem 1,293,074(32.41%). R +2.43%

https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Reigstration_2020_Primary.pdf

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 1,287,831 (34.69%) Dem 1,150,436(30.99%). R +3.7%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2018-10-01.pdf

(3) October 28, 2016: Total 3,588,466

Rep: 1,239,614(34.54%) Dem 1,091,323(30.41%). R +4.13%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2016-11-08.pdf

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Arizona Senate 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=AZ&type=S

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2012 Exit Poll 21% vote share, 2018: 13% share. 8% lower than 2012)

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Sinema 10% / McSally 89%

DEM 41% Sinema 95% / McSally 4%

IND 12% Sinema 54% / McSally 37%

Trump approval: Approve 49% / Disapprove 51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 10/19-10/22. 500 LV.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Toplines-ArizonaStatewide-CFAG-Oct2020.pdf

Poll results: Trump 47% / Biden 46%

(2) Ipsos 10/14-10/21. 658 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632656270366785536

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.8% / Biden 45.9%. Trump +4.9%

(3) RMG Research, 10/14-10/19. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632547841755217920

Poll results: Biden 47% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.8% / Biden 46.2%. Trump +3.6%

(4) Data Orbital, 10/16-10/18. 550 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632508759509434368/

Poll results: Biden 47.1% / Trump 41.8% / Joregensen 2.9%

Adjusted %: Biden 48.85% / Trump 46.75%. Biden +2.1%

FYI)

Data orbital overestimated Trump in 2016(Trump +8%. Final results

Trump +3.5%) And overestimated sinema in 2018

Data Orbital 10/16-10/17. 2018. 600 LVSinema 47% / McSally 40%.

Sinema +7%(final results margin was Sinema +2.4%.)

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/new-survey-sinema-leads-mcsally-in-latest-survey

4) Arizona 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year

(1) Party ID%

With Leaners: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

About the details read my analysis Post:

https://statespoll.com/post/632547841755217920

(2) Rate Arizona

Party ID %:

Vote-By-Mail: Current EV in AZ. Trending R(Including Maricopa county)

Favor Trump

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Voter registration: Considering Turnout(77%ish) Dem narrowed gaps

about 0.3%ish, 2016 was Trump +3.5%.

Trump's 2016 margins 3.5-0.3%= 3.2%

So Arizona Voter registration number is still favor Trump.

Conclusion: Lean Trump

6. Florida

1) Florida Party ID % Statistics

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

(1) August 31, 2020: Total 14,065,627

Dem: 5,203,795 (37.0%) / Rep: 5,020,199 (35.69%). D +1.31%

(2) February 29, 2020: Total 13,730,763

Dem: 5,115,768 (37.26%) / Rep: 4,832,285 (35.19%). D +2.07%

(3) End of 2018: Total 13,396,622

Dem: 4,975,895 (37.14%) / Rep: 4,718,720 (35.22%). D +1.92%

(4) End of 2016: Total 12,959,185

Dem: 4,905,705 (37.86%) / Rep: 4,575,277 (35.31%). D +2.55%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Florida Senate Race 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=FL&type=S

Party ID with leaner: REP 46% / DEM 42% / IND 14%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Rasmussen, 10/20-10/21. 800 LV

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/florida_trump_49_biden_46

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%. Trump +4.0%

(2) St. Pete Polls, 10/21-10/22. 2,527 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632773010577866752

Poll results: Biden 48.9% / Trump 47.4%

Notable results, Among Hispanic: Biden 49.9% / Trump 47.3%.

Biden +2.6% (2016 FL Exit Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 62% / Trump 35%.)

Adjusted %: Trump 49.1% / Biden 47.2%. Trump +1.9%

(3) Civiqs, 10/17-10/20. 863 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/632594327193993216

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 52.4% / Biden 44.1%. Trump +7.3%

4) Florida 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

+Early Voting(VBM+in person)

Exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 34% / IND 25%

2018 FL GOV Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners): REP 38% / DEM 33% /IND 29%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

with leaners: REP 51% / DEM 40% / IND 9%

Details of My FL Party ID model,

Read My Analysis post: https://statespoll.com/post/632594327193993216

(2) Rate Florida.

Party ID % Trends:(Nov 2016: D +2.5% -> Sept 2020: D +1.3%)

Vote-By-Mail:

Florida VBM+in person mid results (Oct. 13)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/florida-results

Mail-in ballots requested: 5,629,666

DEM 45.3% / REP 31.3% / Other 23.4%

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 1,780,584

DEM 50.8% / REP 29.2% / Other 20%

Poll % (adjusted %): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Lean~Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 49.02% / Hillary(DEM) 47.82%. R +1.2%

7. Minnesota

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Minnesota Special Senate Race 2018. 4,201 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MN&type=S2

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner, MN Special Sen 2018

with leaners: DEM 46% / REP 40% / IND 14%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/17-10/20. 840 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

Poll results : Biden 53% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 48.96% / Trump 48.64%. Biden +0.32%

(2) Minnesota: KSTP/SurveyUSA 10/16-10/20. 625 LV Smith vs Lewis

https://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-smith-lewis-senate-race-now-a-dead-heat-october-21-2020/5901843/?cat=1

Smith 43% / Lewis 42%. Smith +1%

3) Minnesota 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID %

Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

With Leaner: REP 44% / DEM 42% / IND 14%

Exclude Leaner: REP 38% / DEM 35% / IND 27%

Detials: https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

(2) Rate Minnesota

Poll: Tilt DEM~Lean DEM

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Last updated Oct. 20

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 936,493

DEM 48.5% / REP 28.9% / IND+OTHER 22.6%

=> OCT 21: DEM 48.0% / REP 29.3% / IND+Other

Poll %: Toss up

Minnesota early voting analysis post:

https://statespoll.com/post/632227687289765888

Conclusion: Toss up

8. North Carolina

1) Party Statistics Trends %

2016 Results: TRUMP 49.83% / Hillary 46.17%

Party registration statistics Trends.

2016->2020 Dem’s margins reduced -3.82%

(1) October 10, 2020: Total 7,242,242

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F10%2F2020

Dem 2,585,688 (35.70%) / Rep 2,185,854 (30.18%). D +5.52%

(2) December, 12th 2018: Total 7,129,017

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=12%2F08%2F2018

Dem 2,696,715(37.82%) / Rep 2,124,202 (29.8%). D +8.02%

(3) November, 8th 2016: Total 6,918,150

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=11%2F08%2F2016

Dem 2,733,188(39.51%) / Rep 2,086,942(30.17%). D +9.34%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress, 10/15-10/18. 929 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632816505386647552

Poll results : Biden 48% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.5% / Biden 44.6%. Trump +6.9%

(2) Ipsos, 10/14-10/20. 660 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

Poll results : Biden 49% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.8% / Biden 46.8%. Trump +3.0%

3) North Carolina Forecast

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends

VBM+In person(60%) DEM 55.5% / REP 38.5% / IND 6%

EDay(40%) REP 65% DEM 25% IND 10%

My Model(With leaners): REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND7%

exclude leaners: REP 35% / DEM 30% / IND 35%

Details of My NC Party ID Model.(with leaners)

Read my post: https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

(2) Rate NC

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Party ID % Trends: Favor REP(Nov 2016: D +9.3% -> Oct 2020: D +5.5%)

Current Early voting REP is narrowing gap radically

VBM: favor REP

Conclusion: Lean Trump

9. Nevada

1) Nevada Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics

(1) Oct 1, 2020: Total 1,742,477

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8998

Dem 654,724 (37.57%) Rep 566,265(32.5%) D+5.07%

(2) September 1, 2020: Total 1,682,436

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8858

Dem 639,665 (38.02%) Rep 548,129(32.58%) D+5.44%

(3) April 1, 2020: Total 1,614,872

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8514

Dem 623,394 (38.6%) Rep 528,119(32.7%) D+5.9%

(4) March 2, 2020: Total 1,594,557

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8433

Dem 611,355 (38.34%) Rep 524,652(32.9%) D+5.44%

(5) Jan 3, 2019: Total 1.582 Million

Dem 607.4k(38.39%) Rep 528.7k(33.42%) D+4.97%

(6) Oct 21, 2016: Total 1,464,819

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

Dem 577,679(39.44%) Rep 488,861(33.37%) D+6.07%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Nevada Senate Race 2018. 3,400 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=NV&type=S

Party ID with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%s

3) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/17-10/20. 712 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632594187760664576

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.175% / Biden 48.875%. Trump +0.3%

4) Nevada 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: DEM 33% / REP 29% / IND 38% with leaners: REP 47.5% / DEM 43% / IND 9.5%

(2) Rate Nevada

1) Party ID %:

2) Poll %: Toss up

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

Nevada VBM. Oct. 14 Returned: 51,847

DEM 53.2% / REP 24.4% / Other 21.7%

=> Oct. 21: DEM 50.2% / REP 41.7% IND 8.1%

NV Early voting is radically Trending R.

Conclusion: Toss up

* 2016 Results: Hillary(DEM) 47.92% / TRUMP(REP) 45.5% / D+2.42%

10. Georgia

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Georgia Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% DEM 41% IND 11%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Landmark 10//21, 500 LV.

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%

Notable results: 72% GA White voters are favoring Trump.

(2) NYT/Siena 10/13-10/19, 759 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632550054936346624

Poll results: Trump 45% / Biden 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 52.85% / Biden 43.59%. Trump +9.26%

(3) Emerson 10/17-10/19, 506 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632455733446852608

Poll results(push undecided): Trump 48.42% / Biden 47.03%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.7% / Biden 44.8%. Trump +4.9%

3) Georgia 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID %

Based on foxnews voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

(2) Rate Georgia

Party ID %: Likely REP

Early Voting: Huge Favor GOP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

11. Iowa

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Iowa Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2016 Exit Poll 34% vote share, 2018: 23% share. 11% lower than 2016)

Final results: Kim Reynolds(Rep) 50.3% / Fred Hubbell(Dem) 47.5%

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Hubbell 11% Reynolds 87%

DEM 36% Hubbell 94% Reynolds 5%

IND 17%

1) Iowa Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html

(1) September 1, 2020: Total 2,027,777

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CoSept20.pdf

Dem 684,093 (33.73%) Rep 691,239 (34.09%) R +0.36%

(2) November 1, 2018: Total 2,013,140

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2018/CoNov18.pdf

Dem 627,430 (31.17%) Rep 649,944 (32.28%) R +1.09%

(3) November 1, 2016: Total 1,996,153

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf

Dem 629,081 (31.51%) Rep 662,167(33.17%) R +1.66%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson, 10/19-10/21. 435 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632849562979188736

Poll Results: Trump 48% / Biden 48% (Push undecided)

Adjusted: Trump 51.6% / Biden 44.2%. Trump +7.4%

(2) InsiderAdvantage, 10/18-10/19. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632551635927941120

Poll Results: Biden 45.1% / Trump 44.6%

Adjusted: Trump 52.7% / Biden 42.7%. Trump +10%

3) Iowa 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 30% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 53% / DEM 36% / IND 11%

(2) Rate Iowa

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.15 / Hillary(DEM) 41.74% R +9.41%

12. Texas

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Texas Senate Race 2018. 3,747 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=TX&type=S

REP 49% / dem 41% / IND 10%. Final Results: Cruz 50.9% / Beto 48.3%

Current Early Voting numbers. 10/21/2020

TargetSmart Model : REP 50.3% / DEM 40.9% / IND 8.8%

Considering ED might be : REP 52% / DEM 39~40% / IND 8~9%

(2018: R +8% -> 2020: Might be R +12~13%. )

Conclusion: Solid Trump.

III. NH/ME(Semi Blue States ME2/NE2: Swing district)

13. Maine

Maine Governor Race 2018. 2,734 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=ME&type=G

Party ID%(With Leaners): DEM 41% / REP 41% / IND 18%

ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

1) ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

(1) 7/14/2020: Total 1,063,383

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active.pdf

DEM 386,786(36.4%) / REP 295,122(27.8%). D +8.6%

(2) 11/6/2018: Total 1,054,952

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active1118.pdf

DEM 348,657(33.05%) / REP 287,955(27.3%). D +5.75%

(3) 11/8/2016: Total 1,058,444

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/r-e-active-11-8-16.pdf

DEM 338,352(32.0%) / REP 285,320(27.0%). D +5.0%

2) Maine 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: DEM 35% / REP 32% / IND 33%

with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%

(2) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

ME-2: Lean Trump

My Post(ME-2): https://statespoll.com/post/632560185693618176

ME-1: Solid Biden. ME(Statewide): Nearly Solid Biden.

14. NE-2 District

Current Early Voting TargetSmart Model: 10/22. 134,122+ voted already

DEM 49.8% / REP 44.4% / IND 5.8%

Compare with 2016(51,437 Votes): DEM 53.4% / REP 41.4% / IND 5.5%

Plus REP is narrowing EV Gaps day by day

I guess in the end, with Election Day: REP 50% / DEM 43% / IND 7%

Conclusion: Tilt Trump

#Electoral Map #Electoral College Map 2020 #Election 2020

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statespoll · 4 years

Text

Presidential Election 2020 Electoral College Map. (2020 Forecast Map/Prediction Map). Donald Trump vs Joe Biden. October 27, 2020.

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/status/1321160480501559296

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

US Presidential Election 2020:

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden

October 27~, 2020

Trump 296 / Biden 222 / Toss up 20

Posts will continue to be updated.

Latest Polls/Party ID+VBM+In person Statistcs.

Last updated: 2:40 PM EST. October 27. 2020

FL/NV Polls + Oakaland County, Michigan(10/27)

Rating Changes:

NV: Tilt Trump-> Tilt Biden

* My analysis is neutral, not biased.

Based on 2012/2016/2018 Exit Polls + Voter registration +Trends + Party ID %.

About the details below(Read more)

Based on

1) Midterm Election 2018 Fox New Voter Analysis

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

2) Exit Poll 2012/2016/2018

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

3) Latest Poll(adjustment)

4) Voter registration statistics + VBM

I. Rust Belt (MI/OH/PA/WI)

1. Michigan.

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Michigan Senate Race 2018. 3,909 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MI&type=S

Party ID with leaners: REP 43% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Gravis, 10/24. 679 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632961349208719360

Poll results: Biden 55% / Trump 42%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.44% / Biden 48.26%. Trump +0.18%

(2) PPP(Dem Pollster), 10/21-10/22. 804 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 43%

Notable Results, MISen, Among Black voters: Peter 70% / James 19%

Adjusted %: Trump 47.5% / Biden 45.6%. Trump +1.9%

(3) Trafalgar, 10/15-10/18. 1,034 LV.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/1001/attachments/original/1603307463/RSTP_MI_'20_Oct_Press_Report.pdf

Poll results: Trump 46.7% / Biden 44.9%. Trump +1.8%

3) Michigan 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020 forecast

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+

Early voting(VBM+In person)

With Leaners: REP 49% / DEM 42% / IND 9%

Exlcude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 33% / IND 27%

VBM+in person 55% / Election Day 45% Model.

Details About My Michigan Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632689663662063616

TargetSmart Early Voting Model, Oakland County. Michigan. Oct. 7

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

DEM 46.7% / REP 41.7%. D+4.0%. considering ED. Trump is likely to flip

Oakland county.

(2) Rate Michigan.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Current Early Voting: Favor Trump

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Lean Trump

Conclusion) MI: Tilt~Lean Trump

2. Wisconsin

1) Voter Registration Statistics

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Wisconsin Governor Race 2018. 4,683 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

(1) Party ID%, Wisconsin with leaner: REP 45% / DEM 43% / IND 13%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 664 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633089252265230336

Poll results: Biden 53% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.92% / Biden 48.5%. Trump +0.42%

(2) Gravis, 10/23. 677 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632918928174235648

Poll results: Biden 54% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 49.54% / Trump 48% Biden +1.54%

(3) RMG Research, 10/14-10/20. 800 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.74% / Biden 47.9%. Trump +0.84%

4) Wisconsin 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

Exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

with leaners: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

VBM+in person 50% / Election Day 50% Model.

Details About My Wisconsin Party ID % Model(with Leaners)

Read My Analysis Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632687368476016640

(2) Rate Wisconsin

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail+in person: Favor Trump

according to Wisconsin TargetSmart Early Voting Model

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

WOW Counties +Racine+Sheboygan+Brown+Winnebago+Outagamie:

Ultra Trending R. 1st time/Infrequent Voters also.

Wisconsin Ealry Voting Analysis October 25. 2020

https://statespoll.com/post/633006764145737728

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Toss up

Conclusion) WI: Toss up

3. Pennsylvania

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2018. 3,925 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=PA&type=S

(1) Party ID%, Pennsylvania with leaner, PA Sen 2018

with leaner REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

2) Pennsylvania Party ID % Statistics

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/currentvotestats.xlsx

(1) October 5, 2020: Total 8,897,739

Dem: 4,168,900 (46.85%) / Rep: 3,451,514 (38.79%). D +8.06%

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 8,609,880

Dem: 4,111,325 (47.75%) / Rep: 3,270,882 (37.99%). D +9.76%

(3) November 8, 2016: Total 8,722,977

Dem: 4,217,456 (48.35%) / Rep: 3,301,182 (37.84%). D +10.51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/23-10/26. 1,145 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633134014505598976

Poll results: Biden 52% / Trump 45%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.23% / Biden 47.65%. Trump +2.58%

(2) Trafalgar, 10/24-10/25. 1,076 LV.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321103067933249536

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 47.6%. Trump +0.8%

(3) InsiderAdvantage, 10/25. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633091095658627072

Poll results: Trump 48.4% / Biden 45.5%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.04% / Biden 44.25%. Trump +4.79%

(4) Ipsos, 10/20-10/26. 655 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

Poll results(5way race): Biden 51% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 48.2% / Biden 46.9%. Trump +1.3%

4) Pennsylvania 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID % 2020

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment

+ VBM+In person 41% / Election Day 59% Model

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

exclude Leaner: REP 44% / DEM 40% / IND 16%

Details about my PA model

read my Post: https://statespoll.com/post/632453093361090560

(2) Realistic Race % 2020 forecast

White 81% / Black 10% / Latino 6% / Asian 1% / Other 2%

(3) Rate Pennsylvania.

1) Party ID %: Favor REP

2) Vote-By-Mail: Let��s see

3) Poll % (adjusted %): Tilt~Lean Trump.

Conclusion) PA: Tilt Trump

4. Ohio

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Ohio Governor Race 2018. 3,819 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 41% / IND 12%

2) Latest Poll

3) Ohio 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in Ohio

(1) Party ID%

Based on Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

in 2020 it might be something like

exclude leaners: REP 39% / DEM 31% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

TargetSmart Model 10/26. 2,201,511+ Casted ballot(40.1% of 2016 Total)

REP 45.9% DEM 41.7% Other 12.5%. and REP might take leads ED

(2) Rate Ohio

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green):

Early Voting: heavily favor REP

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.69% / Hillary(DEM) 43.56%. R +8.13%

II. Other Swing States (AZ/FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/TX)

5. Arizona

1) Arizona Party ID % Statistics

Arizona Voter Registration %

10/28/2016: REP +148,291

10/20/2020: REP +113,896

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1318572169748676608

According to Twitter user Billy Newby

-----------

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1318575045141254144

---------

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

Active voters only

(1) August 4, 2020: Total 3,989,214

Rep: 1,389,960(34.84%) Dem 1,293,074(32.41%). R +2.43%

https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Reigstration_2020_Primary.pdf

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 1,287,831 (34.69%) Dem 1,150,436(30.99%). R +3.7%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2018-10-01.pdf

(3) October 28, 2016: Total 3,588,466

Rep: 1,239,614(34.54%) Dem 1,091,323(30.41%). R +4.13%

https://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2016-11-08.pdf

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Arizona Senate 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=AZ&type=S

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2012 Exit Poll 21% vote share, 2018: 13% share. 8% lower than 2012)

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Sinema 10% / McSally 89%

DEM 41% Sinema 95% / McSally 4%

IND 12% Sinema 54% / McSally 37%

Trump approval: Approve 49% / Disapprove 51%

3) Latest Poll

(1) Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 10/19-10/22. 500 LV.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Toplines-ArizonaStatewide-CFAG-Oct2020.pdf

Poll results: Trump 47% / Biden 46%. Trump +1%

(2) Ipsos 10/14-10/21. 658 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632656270366785536

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.8% / Biden 45.9%. Trump +4.9%

4) Arizona 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year

(1) Party ID%

2018 AZGov Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners):

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona

REP 38% / DEM 31% / IND 31%

With Leaners: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Exclude Leaners: REP 40% / DEM 32% / IND 28%

About the details read my analysis Post:

https://statespoll.com/post/632547841755217920

(2) Rate Arizona

Party ID %:

Vote-By-Mail: Current EV in AZ. Trending R(Including Maricopa county)

Favor Trump

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Voter registration: Considering Turnout(77%ish) Dem narrowed gaps

about 0.3%ish, 2016 was Trump +3.5%.

Trump's 2016 margins 3.5-0.3%= 3.2%

So Arizona Voter registration number is still favor Trump.

Conclusion: Lean Trump

6. Florida

1) Florida Party ID % Statistics

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

(1) August 31, 2020: Total 14,065,627

Dem: 5,203,795 (37.0%) / Rep: 5,020,199 (35.69%). D +1.31%

(2) End of 2018: Total 13,396,622

Dem: 4,975,895 (37.14%) / Rep: 4,718,720 (35.22%). D +1.92%

(3) End of 2016: Total 12,959,185

Dem: 4,905,705 (37.86%) / Rep: 4,575,277 (35.31%). D +2.55%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Florida Senate Race 2018. 3,717 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=FL&type=S

Party ID with leaner: REP 46% / DEM 42% / IND 14%

3) Latest Poll

(1) FAU, 10/24-10/25. 937 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633132642007711744

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 50.96% / Biden 45.07%. Trump +5.89%

(2) Susquehanna(Rep pollster), 10/23-10/25. 400 LV.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Toplines-Florida-CFAG-Oct252020.pdf

Poll results: Trump 49% / Biden 44% / Jorgensen 2%. Trump +5%

(3) Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,228 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632963089572282369

Poll results: Biden 50% / Trump 48%

Adjusted: Trump 52.6% / Biden 45.3%. Trump +7.3%

4) Florida 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

+Early Voting(VBM+in person)

2018 FL GOV Exit Poll(Exclude Leaners): REP 38% / DEM 33% /IND 29%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

Exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Details of My FL Party ID model,

Read My Analysis post: https://statespoll.com/post/633155102813847552/

(2) Rate Florida.

Party ID % Trends:(Nov 2016: D +2.5% -> Sept 2020: D +1.3%)

Vote-By-Mail:

Florida VBM+in person mid results (Oct. 13)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/florida-results

Mail-in ballots requested: 5,629,666

DEM 45.3% / REP 31.3% / Other 23.4%

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 1,780,584

DEM 50.8% / REP 29.2% / Other 20%

Poll % (adjusted %): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Lean~Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 49.02% / Hillary(DEM) 47.82%. R +1.2%

7. Nevada

1) Nevada Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics

(1) Oct 1, 2020: Total 1,742,477

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8998

Dem 654,724 (37.57%) Rep 566,265(32.5%) D+5.07%

(2) Jan 3, 2019: Total 1.582 Million

Dem 607.4k(38.39%) Rep 528.7k(33.42%) D+4.97%

(3) Oct 21, 2016: Total 1,464,819

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

Dem 577,679(39.44%) Rep 488,861(33.37%) D+6.07%

2) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Nevada Senate Race 2018. 3,400 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=NV&type=S

Party ID with leaners: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%s

3) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/23-10/26, 809 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633152355607707648

Poll results: Biden 49% / Trump 43% / Jorgensen 3%

Adjusted %: Biden 49.1% / Trump 47.1% / Jorgensen 1.6%. Biden +2.0%

4) Nevada 2020 Forecast

(1) 2020 Party ID %

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: DEM 33% / REP 29% / IND 38% with leaners: REP 47.5% / DEM 43% / IND 9.5%

(2) Rate Nevada

1) Party ID %:

2) Poll %: Tilt~Lean Biden

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

My Analysis Post(Nevada Early Voting):

https://statespoll.com/post/633151892259831808

Conclusion: Tilt Biden

8. Minnesota

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Minnesota Special Senate Race 2018. 4,201 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=MN&type=S2

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner, MN Special Sen 2018

with leaners: DEM 46% / REP 40% / IND 14%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs, 10/17-10/20. 840 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

Poll results : Biden 53% / Trump 43%

Adjusted %: Biden 48.96% / Trump 48.64%. Biden +0.32%

(2) Minnesota: KSTP/SurveyUSA 10/16-10/20. 625 LV Smith vs Lewis

https://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-smith-lewis-senate-race-now-a-dead-heat-october-21-2020/5901843/?cat=1

Smith 43% / Lewis 42%. Smith +1%

3) Minnesota 2020 Forecast

(1) Party ID %

Voter registration+Fox new voter analysis adjustment+Trends

With Leaner: REP 45% / DEM 44% / IND 11%

Exclude Leaner: REP 38% / DEM 35% / IND 27%

Detials: https://statespoll.com/post/632594716317384704

(2) Rate Minnesota

Poll: Tilt DEM~Lean DEM

3) Vote-By-Mail+in person:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Last updated Oct. 20

Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned: 936,493

DEM 48.5% / REP 28.9% / IND+OTHER 22.6%

=> OCT 21: DEM 48.0% / REP 29.3% / IND+Other

=> Oct 24: DEM 47.4% / REP 29.9% / IND + Other 22.7%

Poll %: Toss up

Minnesota early voting analysis post:

https://statespoll.com/post/632227687289765888

Conclusion: Toss up

9. North Carolina

1) Party Statistics Trends %

2016 Results: TRUMP 49.83% / Hillary 46.17%

Party registration statistics Trends.

2016->2020 Dem’s margins reduced -3.82%

(1) October 10, 2020: Total 7,242,242

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F10%2F2020

Dem 2,585,688 (35.70%) / Rep 2,185,854 (30.18%). D +5.52%

(2) November, 8th 2016: Total 6,918,150

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=11%2F08%2F2016

Dem 2,733,188(39.51%) / Rep 2,086,942(30.17%). D +9.34%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Yougov, 10/20-10/23. 1,022 LV

https://statespoll.com/post/632816505386647552

Poll results : Biden 51% / Trump 47%

Adjusted %: Trump 50.98% / Biden 46.95%. Trump +4.03%

(2) Trafalgar, 10/20-10/22. 1,098 LV

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F50GhQFuthpATgxIiDqADXjmgk_iNFBm/view

Poll results : Trump 48.8% / Biden 46.0%. Trump +2.8%

(3) Ipsos, 10/14-10/20. 660 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

Poll results : Biden 49% / Trump 46%

Adjusted %: Trump 49.8% / Biden 46.8%. Trump +3.0%

(4) Data for Progress, 10/15-10/18. 929 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632816505386647552

Poll results : Biden 48% / Trump 44%

Adjusted %: Trump 51.5% / Biden 44.6%. Trump +6.9%

3) North Carolina Forecast

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends

VBM+In person(60%) DEM 55.5% / REP 38.5% / IND 6%

EDay(40%) REP 65% DEM 25% IND 10%

My Model(With leaners): REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND7%

exclude leaners: REP 35% / DEM 30% / IND 35%

Details of My NC Party ID Model.(with leaners)

Read my post: https://statespoll.com/post/632543897604751360

(2) Rate NC

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Lean Trump

Party ID % Trends: Favor REP(Nov 2016: D +9.3% -> Oct 2020: D +5.5%)

Current Early voting REP is narrowing gap radically

VBM: favor REP

Conclusion: Lean Trump

10. Georgia

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Georgia Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Party ID with leaner: REP 48% DEM 41% IND 11%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs 10/23-10/26, 1,041 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633133585426251776

Poll results: Biden 51% / Trump 46%

Adjusted: Trump 51.7% / Biden 46.3%. Tump +5.4%

(2) Yougov 10/20-10/23, 1,090 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632961884585426944

Poll results: Trump 48% / Biden 48%

Adjusted: Trump 53.7% / Biden 44.1%. Trump +9.6%

(3) AJC 10/14-10/23, 1,145 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633036015536406528

Poll results: Biden 46.5% / Trump 46.2%

Adjusted: Trump 50.85% / Biden 43.4%. Trump +6.45%

(4) Landmark 10/21, 500 LV.

Poll results: Trump 50% / Biden 46%

Notable results: 72% GA White voters are favoring Trump.

3) Georgia 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID %

Based on foxnews voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 41% / DEM 32% / IND 27%

with leaners: REP 52% / DEM 41% / IND 7%

(2) Rate Georgia

Party ID %: Likely REP

Early Voting: Huge Favor GOP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

11. Iowa

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Iowa Governor Race 2018. 3,955 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=GA&type=G

Despite of White-Evangelical’s Low turnout (Presidential election 2016 Exit Poll 34% vote share, 2018: 23% share. 11% lower than 2016)

Final results: Kim Reynolds(Rep) 50.3% / Fred Hubbell(Dem) 47.5%

Party ID with leaner:

REP 47% Hubbell 11% Reynolds 87%

DEM 36% Hubbell 94% Reynolds 5%

IND 17%

1) Iowa Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html

(1) September 1, 2020: Total 2,027,777

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CoSept20.pdf

Dem 684,093 (33.73%) Rep 691,239 (34.09%) R +0.36%

(2) November 1, 2016: Total 1,996,153

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf

Dem 629,081 (31.51%) Rep 662,167(33.17%) R +1.66%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson, 10/19-10/21. 435 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632849562979188736

Poll Results: Trump 48% / Biden 48% (Push undecided)

Adjusted: Trump 51.6% / Biden 44.2%. Trump +7.4%

(2) InsiderAdvantage, 10/18-10/19. 400 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/632551635927941120

Poll Results: Biden 45.1% / Trump 44.6%

Adjusted: Trump 52.7% / Biden 42.7%. Trump +10%

3) Iowa 2020 Forecast

Considering White-Evangelical’s turnout might be higher in preisdential year.

(1) Party ID

Based on Voter registration Trends+Fox new voter analysis adjustment.

exclude leaners: REP 40% / DEM 30% / IND 30%

with leaners: REP 53% / DEM 36% / IND 11%

(2) Rate Iowa

Party ID %: Likely REP

Poll % (adjusted %+ cosindered Libertarian&Green): Likely Trump

Conclusion: Likely Trump

* 2016 Results: TRUMP(REP) 51.15 / Hillary(DEM) 41.74% R +9.41%

12. Texas

1) Election 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis

Texas Senate Race 2018. 3,747 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=TX&type=S

REP 49% / dem 41% / IND 10%. Final Results: Cruz 50.9% / Beto 48.3%

Current Early Voting numbers.

TargetSmart Model :

10/21/2020 REP 50.3% / DEM 40.9% / IND 8.8%

10/25/2020 REP 51.9% / DEM 38.9% / IND 9.2%

Considering ED might be : REP 52%+ / DEM 39% or less / IND 9%

(2018: R +8% -> 2020: Might be R +13% or more. )

2) Latest Poll

(1) Yougov, 10/13-10/20. 1,000 LV.

https://statespoll.com/post/633051947607490561

Poll Results: Trump 50.0% / Biden 44.7%

Adjusted: Trump 54.1% / Biden 43.87%. Trump +10.23%

III. NH/ME(Semi Blue States ME2/NE2: Swing district)

13. Maine

Maine Governor Race 2018. 2,734 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=ME&type=G

Party ID%(With Leaners): DEM 41% / REP 41% / IND 18%

ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

1) ME Party ID % Statistics(Active Registered Voters)

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html

(1) 7/14/2020: Total 1,063,383

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active.pdf

DEM 386,786(36.4%) / REP 295,122(27.8%). D +8.6%

(2) 11/6/2018: Total 1,054,952

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/data-pdf/r-e-active1118.pdf

DEM 348,657(33.05%) / REP 287,955(27.3%). D +5.75%

(3) 11/8/2016: Total 1,058,444

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/r-e-active-11-8-16.pdf

DEM 338,352(32.0%) / REP 285,320(27.0%). D +5.0%

2) Maine 2020 Forecast

ME-2: Lean Trump

My Post(ME-2): https://statespoll.com/post/632560185693618176

ME-1: Solid Biden. ME(Statewide): Nearly Solid Biden.

14. NE-2 District

Current Early Voting TargetSmart Model:

10/27 DEM 48.7% / REP 45.3% / IND 6.0%

*FYI 2016 EV(58,667 Votes): DEM 52.5% / REP 42.0% / IND 5.6%

I guess in the end, with Election Day: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

Conclusion: Tilt~Lean Trump

#Electoral map #electoral college map #election 2020 #forecast map #prediction map

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