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serenzippity · 5 years
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Has anyone else had a delay in their Jackson Wang Mirrors merch? I never received the digital album despite the fact it came out weeks ago, and the items were supposed to ship out last week. I got “Bullet to the Heart” and Mirrors merch, both of which I ordered the day they were respectively announced.
I emailed the shipping company, but they have yet to respond. Let me know because I heavily track everything I order.
🖤
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illogicallyinclined · 4 years
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How did the rest of the team react to Logan's accent for the first time? (Which I'm assuming he has because hes from Minnesota)
OKAY. so Logan — in his very humble (and very accurate) opinion — doesn’t have that much of an accent. (he doesn’t). 
alright, yeah. sure. sometimes, when he says the word “yeah,” it probably sounds a bit closer to “yah.” and fine, when he says “Minnesota,” the “o” is perhaps more elongated than your typical Southerner would pronounce it. but it’s not like he’s a character from Fargo or something; for the most part, he talks like your average, non-accented human being, and — as such — there is absolutely no reason for the team to react to his diction any differently than they react to any one else’s.
...
having said that, the team always notices when Logan pronounces a word differently/uses an atypical “Minnesotan-ism,” and they do not let him live it down
(the first time anyone on the team noticed his accent was when Roman asked Logan to toss him his equipment bag to load it into the bus. Roman genuinely forgot the words “equipment bag” for a moment, and when he gestured wordlessly, Logan went “oh, are you pointing at the bayg?” at which point Roman froze, grinned, and loudly wheezed “am i pointing at the what?”)
(Logan was asked to repeat the word “bayg” fifteen times before he was even able to board the bus)
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US April non-farm payrolls tonight: Is the job market still tight and can the "payroll-inflation" spiral slow down?
This Friday, global markets will once again see the release of the monthly big data: the US monthly non-farm payrolls report for April. This key economic data is of particular interest after the rollercoaster ride from soaring to plummeting US stocks over the past two days.
Markets will need to rely on this data to gauge the Fed's expectations for the economic and inflation outlook, which will have a significant impact on global equity, currency and bond markets. Although the market is expected to slow down in April as service sector employment contracted, the pace of payroll growth is likely to remain strong, meaning that the "payroll-inflation" spiral is still unable to decelerate, which will be a tricky situation for the Fed.
01、US job market growth expected to slow down
Although the Fed has already announced its May monetary policy resolution before the release of this April non-farm payrolls report, and there will be another May non-farm payrolls data to be released before the next monetary policy meeting, so the short term impact of this non-farm payrolls data on the market may be more limited than last month. However, if there is any unexpected data in this non-farm payrolls report, it could still have a shock to the market.
Here are the key indicators expected to be released and the Wall Street estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
Non-farm payrolls: expected to be an increase of 380,000, compared to an increase of 431,000 in March
Unemployment rate: expected to be 3.5%, compared to 3.6% in March
Average hourly earnings month-over-month: 0.4% expected, 0.4% in March
Average hourly earnings year-on-year: 5.5% expected, 5.6% in March
Looking at Wall Street's expected data, Wall Street expects the US job market to still grow tightly, but at a significantly slower rate than in the first three months of the year.
In the first three months of the year, US non-farm payrolls grew by an average of more than 500,000 per month. Wall Street's estimate of 380,000 new jobs in April would be the lowest single-month gain in the past year. However, this figure is still well above the pre-outbreak figures - US employment grew by an average of around 164,000 per month throughout 2019, before the outbreak of the new crown outbreak.
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Non-farm payrolls and unemployment data 2005 to date
In a report earlier this week, Wells Fargo senior economist Sam Bullard wrote: "While employment demand remains strong, the pace of monthly job growth should continue to slow in the coming months as the market gets closer to full employment…We expect to see broad-based hiring - -remarkable employment gains in leisure, hospitality and other service-related sectors, which are increasingly recovering in the wake of the new crown epidemic."
02、 Leading indicators hint at risk of missing expectations
Looking at the leading data, there is a risk that April's non-farm payrolls data will fall short of expectations. The following four leading indicators have been previously released.
The US ISM Services PMI Employment Index came in at 49.5 in April, down sharply from 54.0 in the previous month, indicating an overall contraction in services employment.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment Index was 50.9 in April, down sharply from 56.3 in the previous month.
The US ADP employment report for April showed net job creation of 247,000 in April, well below expectations and down significantly from the upwardly revised net job creation of 479,000 in the previous month.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 188,000, above last month's record low of 178,000.
According to consultancy StoneX, looking at the above 4 leading indicators,The April non-farm payrolls figure will probably be slightly lower than expected, although the increase in non-farm payrolls is likely to remain between 300,000 and 400,000.
Of particular concern is the sharp drop in the US ISM Services PMI employment index in April compared to the previous month, which does not bode well for the non-farm payrolls data. Indeed, the services sector has been the largest contributor to job growth in recent months, as service sector firms rush to rehire employees laid off during the epidemic to meet new consumer demand.
But it is also clear that employment in the service sector has been getting closer to saturation in recent months. While there are still around 1.5 million fewer jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector than the level in February 2020, before the outbreak of the new crown, this gap has narrowed significantly over the past year.
03、Payroll growth figures are particularly worrying
Wall Street expects US average hourly earnings to increase by 5.5% year-on-year in April, remaining at a similarly strong rate to the previous month. At the same time, Wall Street's unemployment rate is expected to fall further to 3.5%, which is already equivalent to the February 2020 level and the lowest level since 1969.
However, recent job and wage growth and declining unemployment have not brought a corresponding improvement in the financial situation of many Americans.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% in March this year compared to a year earlier, the fastest increase since 1981. This means that the rise in consumer prices has far outstripped the increase in wages.
Giacomo Santangelo, an economist at employment platform Monster, said: "A lot of people seem to be counting on the fact that if we can get the unemployment rate down to the level it was in the first quarter of 2020, everything will be fine. But we are now finding that even as unemployment improves on a macroeconomic scale, individuals are facing rising prices that are threatening their standard of living."
At the Fed resolution two days ago, Fed Chairman Powell, while announcing the rate hike and tapering, also highlighted concerns about the job market, particularly payrolls.
He said at the press conference at the time: "Wage levels are high, the highest they've been in some time. This is a good example…of how tight the labour market really is…wages are at their highest level in decades and that's because of the imbalance between supply and demand in the labour market."
He said, "So we take full account of our policies, full account of further recovery in the labour market, higher figures such as job vacancy fill rates and more people returning to the job market, and we would like to think that supply and demand will return to equilibrium …… So wage inflation grows moderately but remains still higher, which is what we expect."
Diego Colman, market analyst at DailyFX, said that from a stock market perspective, a combination of strong job growth and moderate wage growth would be the most pleasing combination for stock market bulls, as it would mean a steady recovery in the economy and the avoidance of an inflation-payroll spiral that could help ease some of the nervousness. Conversely, if hiring activity cools significantly while payrolls rise sharply, market fears of stagflation could further intensify and equity markets could fall further.
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vnforexfactory · 2 years
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Sản xuất của Mỹ: Việc thiếu nguồn cung vẫn là hạn chế lớn - Wells Fargo
Sản xuất của Mỹ: Việc thiếu nguồn cung vẫn là hạn chế lớn – Wells Fargo
Dữ liệu lĩnh vực sản xuất của Mỹ được công bố vào thứ Hai đã thấp hơn mức đồng thuận của thị trường. ISM đã giảm xuống 55,4 trong tháng 4 so với mức 57,1 và thấp hơn mức 57,6 dự kiến. Chỉ số sản xuất ISM suy yếu cho thấy lĩnh vực này mở rộng với tốc độ hoạt động chậm nhất trong hơn một năm rưỡi vào tháng 4, các nhà phân tích tại Wells Fargo giải thích. Các điểm chính từ Mỹ “Chỉ số sản xuất của Mỹ…
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megalium · 3 years
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U.S. factory activity cools amid COVID-19 flare-up
U.S. factory activity cools amid COVID-19 flare-up
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing activity slowed slightly in January, while a measure of prices paid by factories for raw materials and other inputs jumped to its highest level in nearly 10 years, strengthening expectations inflation will perk up this year.
The moderation in activity reported by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday reflected a flare-up in COVID-19 infections, causing labor shortages in factories and their suppliers, which the ISM said “will continue to restrict the manufacturing economy expansion until the coronavirus crisis abates.” Manufacturing and housing are anchoring the economic recovery from the pandemic.
“It’s another reminder, not that we need one, the vaccine rollout has a long way to go before COVID loses its place as the biggest risk to economic growth,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York.
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The ISM’s index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 58.7 last month from 60.5 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 60 in January.
The ISM revised data going back to 2012. Sixteen industries, including electrical equipment, appliances and components, machinery, primary metals and chemical products expanded in January. Printing and related support activities, and petroleum and coal products industries contracted.
Manufacturing has been driven by strong demand for goods like electronics and furniture as 23.7% of the labor force works from home because of the coronavirus outbreak. But spending on long-lasting manufactured goods fell for a second straight month in December, government data showed on Friday.
With the distribution of vaccines to fight the coronavirus expected to broaden and accelerate, spending on services is likely to pick up by summer. That could cause a slowdown in manufacturing activity from current levels. Still, a contraction is unlikely as customer inventories fell to an 11-year low in January. Factory stocks are also very lean.
A separate report on Monday from the Commerce Department said construction spending increased 1.0% to $1.490 trillion, the highest level since the government started tracking the series in 2002. That followed a 1.1% jump in November.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher following a sharp sell-off last week. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.
SUPPLY SQUEEZE Manufacturers mostly described demand as strong last month, but worried about labor and input supply constraints. Makers of computer and electronic products said “increased demand, labor constraints and upstream supply delays are pushing lead times.”
Food producers reported that “labor continues to be one of our largest challenges.” Machinery manufacturers complained about “significant cost increases in logistics and raw materials.” Makers of miscellaneous goods reported “an increase in employees testing positive for COVID-19, negatively impacting manufacturing.”
A separate survey from data firm IHS Markit showed strong manufacturing activity in January and rising supply constraints.
The ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index fell to a reading of 61.1 last month from 67.5 in December. Export orders at factories also moderated. Despite the cool-off in orders, factories increased hiring last month.
The survey’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to 52.6 from 51.7 in December. That raises hope for a rebound in hiring this month after the economy shed jobs in December for the first time in eight months. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the government’s employment report on Friday is likely to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs in January.
Job losses have been disproportionately in the services industry.
“The structural mismatch between those who are out-of-work, primarily service workers, and those looking to hire, manufacturers, is a key reason why our forecast shows a more gradual jobs recovery than an otherwise robust rebound in output would suggest,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Bottlenecks in the supply chain worsened, with suppliers struggling to meet factory needs. That drove costs for manufacturers even higher. The survey’s prices paid index jumped to a reading of 82.1 last month, the highest since April 2011, from 77.6 in December. Coming in the wake of recent data showing a rise in consumer prices and labor costs, it supports predictions of a pickup in inflation in the coming months.
“It could be interpreted as a sign that inflation pressures are becoming a broader issue for the economy,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. “While we think it is too early to be especially concerned, we do predict that headline inflation will rise above 3% and core inflation above 2.5% in coming quarters.”
But high unemployment could limit manufacturers’ ability to raise prices. Employment is still 10 million jobs below the pre-pandemic peak.
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womenofcolor15 · 4 years
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Tory Lanez Foolery – Dedicates ‘Daystar’ Album To Mother After Catching Backlash For His F***Boi Ways + Meg Links Up With Mary J. Blige
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Tory Lanez reached a new level of “f*** boi” when he released his new album, Daystar, that features lyrics of him telling his side of the shooting scandal involving his former friend/rapper Megan Thee Stallion. Get into his foolery – including his album dedication - Meg's response, her link up with Mary J. Blige and more inside…
Just when you thought the peak level of f***boi-ism had been reached…in comes Tory Lanez.
As you know, Megan Thee Stallion confirmed her former friend Tory Lanez (real name Daystar Peterson) was the person who shot her in both feet during an argument on July 12th in Los Angeles. The “Say It” rapper was arrested for a felony count of carrying a concealed weapon in a vehicle.
        View this post on Instagram
                  real friends @theestallion @winnieharlow @corona beer for getting me lit like this lmaooo ...
A post shared by LONE $TONE FARGO (@torylanez) on Apr 1, 2020 at 4:55pm PDT
  Over the last two months, the Canadian rapper/singer remained mum about the shooting scandal. Now, he’s talking. Well, kinda.
Last week, Tory broke his silence on social media with a tweet announcing he would address the shooting allegations made against him.
To my fans ... I’m sorry for my silence .... but respectfully .. I got time today ...... 9 PM PST .
— Tory Lanez (@torylanez) September 24, 2020
“To my fans … I’m sorry for my silence …. but respectfully .. I got time today …… 9 p.m. PST,” he tweeted.
In another tweet he wrote:
There is a time to stay silent . And a time to speak ..... I said all I could say on this ... ALL PLATFORMS ... ..... #DAYSTAR ... I’ll be back to y’all soon .... respectfully .... pic.twitter.com/rC7oAotwfR
— Tory Lanez (@torylanez) September 25, 2020
”There is a time to stay silent . And a time to speak ..... I said all I could say on this ... ALL PLATFORMS ... ..... #DAYSTAR ... I’ll be back to y’all soon .... respectfully ....," he continued.
On the album, he said he didn’t shoot the SUGA rapper and that her people are trying to frame him.
“Megan people trying to frame me for a shooting / But them boys ain’t clean enough / I see how they teaming up, watching / And I’m calculating / Gotta keep it quiet, I can’t jeopardize the outcome waiting,” he rapped.
He also said, “Girl, you had the nerve to write that statement on that affidavit / Knowing I ain’t do it but I’m coming at my truest.”
On another track, he talked about being in a romantic relationship, seemingly with Megan, and said he’s still not over her.
“Don’t forget you was my b*tch / I held it down and kept it real / I would never paint no fake picture of you just for some mills / And I thought you was solid too, but look at how you doin’ me / People trying to ruin me / And what’s even worse is I’m still thinking about you and me,” he rapped.
Tory also popped back at artists Kehlani, Kaash Paige, JoJo, and NBA baller J.R. Smith, who spoke out about the shooting.
After releasing this foolishness, he then dedicated the album to his late mother:
        View this post on Instagram
                  9/25 my mothers birthday , the day she passed away , the day the album dropped #daystar
A post shared by LONE $TONE FARGO (@torylanez) on Sep 27, 2020 at 11:33am PDT
"9/25 my mothers birthday , the day she passed away , the day the album dropped #daystar," he wrote. Oh.
After Tory released his project, Meg – who recently covered TIME magazine’s 100 Most Influential People cover – posted up what appears to be a response while promoting her new denim line with Fashion Nova:
        View this post on Instagram
                  Nothing REAL can be threatened oh yeah and remember when I said I was collaborating with @fashionnova to make jeans for tall women These are the first samples coming soon
A post shared by Hot Girl Meg (@theestallion) on Sep 26, 2020 at 1:46pm PDT
  The Houston Hottie also shared some bomb pictures of herself wearing “F U C K Y O U” rings:
        View this post on Instagram
                  Mood
A post shared by Hot Girl Meg (@theestallion) on Sep 27, 2020 at 12:55pm PDT
Oh, and she also has a new song featuring Young Thug titled, “Don’t Stop” set to drop:
        View this post on Instagram
                  “DONT STOP” 10/2 @thuggerthugger1 PRE SAVE IT NOW HOTTIES link in bio
A post shared by Hot Girl Meg (@theestallion) on Sep 28, 2020 at 12:00pm PDT
A Tory Lanez diss, perhaps? Possibly.
Last night…
        View this post on Instagram
                  Mary and Megan with thee good knees @therealmaryjblige
A post shared by Hot Girl Meg (@theestallion) on Sep 27, 2020 at 7:30pm PDT
Meg and her “good knees” linked up with “Power II” star Mary J. Blige.
        View this post on Instagram
                  You kno how I’m coming bitch stop playin
A post shared by Hot Girl Meg (@theestallion) on Sep 27, 2020 at 6:14pm PDT
Looking GOODT, Meg!
Also...
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After Tory dropped his new album, Rick Ross called him out for using Breonna Taylor's name in vain. Peep the clip above. Then, Tory responded:
I respect u 2 much as a black man to disrespect you in these times,however I went out and marched 9 DAYS STRAIT for Breonna Taylor ..IN YOUR CITY ...I didn’t see the “boss” out there once ?...also stop tagging your endorsements in post about her . It’s a poor decision @RickRoss
— Tory Lanez (@torylanez) September 25, 2020
Rozay caught wind of Tory's tweet and responded:
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Tory has all the energy for all the wrong things it seems.
          View this post on Instagram
                  #MeganTheeStallion will make her #SNL debut on October 3rd! The 46th season premiere will be hosted by #ChrisRock. Sounds lit!
A post shared by TheYBF (@theybf_daily) on Sep 24, 2020 at 11:49am PDT
  By the way, Meg will perform on "SNL" this Saturday! Tory's timing is transparent as ever.
  Photo: Michael A Walker Jr/Shutterstock.com
[Read More ...] source http://theybf.com/2020/09/28/tory-lanez-foolery-%E2%80%93-dedicates-%E2%80%98daystar%E2%80%99-album-to-mother-after-catching-backlash-for-his-
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fx999blog · 4 years
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黄金T+D收跌,全球央行购金骤降,抵消美股暴跌带来的支撑;关注美国才市两大风险 黄金T+D收跌,全球央行购金骤降,抵消美股暴跌带来的支撑;关注美国才市两大风险 周五(9月4日)黄金T+D下跌0.35%至414.03元/克,白银T+D收盘下跌2.98%至5870元/千克。现货黄金探底回升至1940美元/盎司附近,美元指数没有进一步走高,尽管全球各国央行购金数量大降,但同时美联储强调应对股市泡沫保持警惕,这令全球股市尤其是美股大跌,黄金获得一定避险支撑。今日晚间非农数据将成为关键,现货黄金三角形下轨若击穿,则可能考验1900水平。 上海黄金交易所2020年9月4日交易行情 ① 黄金T+D收盘下跌0.35%至414.03元/克,成交量58.286吨,成交金额241亿794万8420元,交收方向“多支付给空”,交收量15.272吨; ② 迷你金T+D收盘下跌0.40%至414.12元/克,成交量7.6118吨,成交金额31亿4943万5012元,交收方向“多支付给空”,交收量20.996吨; ③ 白银T+D收盘下跌2.98%至5870元/千克,成交量34148.944吨,成交金额2019亿6211万8858元,交收方向“多支付给空”,交收量24.990吨 全球股市大降,黄金获得避险支撑 周五(9月4日)现货黄金探底回升至1940美元/盎司附近,美元指数没有进一步走高,尽管全球各国央行购金数量大降,但同时美联储强调应对股市泡沫保持警惕,这令全球股市尤其是美股大跌,黄金获得一定避险支撑。今日晚间非农数据将成为关键,现货黄金三角形下轨若击穿,则可能考验1900水平。 亚特兰大联储主席Raphael Bostic表示,我们应对资产泡沫感到担忧。而芝加哥联储主席Charles Evans表示,我对在如此不确定的情况下,股市还在上升感到惊奇。Evans和Bostic还暗示,由于经济前景不明,美联储在即将召开的政策会议上不会公布更新版的利率路径指引。 世界黄金协会(WGC)最新报告显示,7月全球各国央行的黄金需求明显放缓,7月全球各国央行总计只净买入了8.2吨黄金,是2018年12月以来最低水平。尽管7月全球各国央行增持黄金的速度降至低位,但今年以来央行仍然增持了超200吨黄金。WGC认为,各国央行还会继续买入黄金。目前卖出黄金的央行数量超过了买入黄金的数量,8家央行卖了黄金,7家央行买了黄金。 安联首席经济学家Mohamed El-Erian表示,如果投资者转变心态,从考虑技术面转向考虑基本面的话,美股市场有可能再跌10%。当前的美股市场不仅与美国经济脱钩,也与“恐慌指数”VIX、美国国债和高收益债券市场脱钩。在以科技股为主的纳指涨幅达到两位数、基准股指也上涨近7%、美股连续5个月上涨、8月达成数十年来最强劲涨幅的种种表现过后,美股回调的时机已经成熟。 美国上周初请失业金人数低于预期,但实际情况可能不那么乐观。以未经调整的数据来看,美国上周首申83.33万人,较前一周的82.57万人环比略有上升,且是疫情前每周首申数据均值的4倍,表明美国就业市场仍然严重受损。 美国8月ISM服务业指数从17个月高位回落,就业连续萎缩半年。8月美国ISM服务业指数降至56.9,结束之前连续三个月上升的趋势。新订单与商业活动等关键分项指数均回落,就业指数连续六个月陷入萎缩,为周五发布的8月非农就业报告蒙上阴影。行业代表担忧未来的高度不确定性。 美国7月贸易逆差增长18.9%,创十二年来最高水平。贸易逆差激增的主要推动力是美国进口规模的迅速扩大,反映出美国在逐渐解除封锁后国内需求迅速扩大。 欧洲多国新增确诊病例重回3月峰值水平,统计数据显示,8月包括阿尔巴尼亚、克罗地亚、保加利亚、黑山、希腊、北马其顿、罗马尼亚以及马耳他等国在内的东南欧国家,每日新增病例数普遍已经超过了年初时的数值。 9月4日黄金ETFs数据显示,截止9月4日黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量1250.04吨,较上一交易日持平;Gold Trust9月4日数据显示,iShares Gold Trust9月4日黄金持有量512.37吨,较上一交易日增加0.18吨。 今晚市场又将迎来重磅的非农数据,在此前连续反弹后,8月美国就业市场表现会怎样呢? 目前市场预测为此次非农新增就业135万,比7月的176.3万有所下降;失业率9.8%比7月的10.2%有所改善;时薪环比增幅0.0%,同比增幅4.4%;劳动参与率61.8%。 尽管本次新增就业预计将继续超100万,但比起此前3月和4月的失去的超2000万就业,意味着美国就业市场仍然大幅承压。 富国银行 (NYSE:WFC)(Wells Fargo)高级经济学家Sam Bullard表示,8月非农的表现应该还是比较好的,显现出美国就业市场在缓慢复苏。 不过Bullard指出,新增就业速度在放缓,复苏很大程度上还是要看疫情发展。 近几周美国感染人数增长有所放缓,如果能维持住这种趋势,那么就业市场和整体经济增长会有复苏。但随着秋冬季节到来,美国疫情可能再次爆发,这对就业市场而言显然是一大风险。 一些经济学家们认为,后市的风险还包括在企业在假期招聘会更谨慎,教育相关招聘也会更谨慎。 此外,经济学家们更关注那些长期失业的人,也就是不是因为临时裁员而失业,不会很快回到工作岗位上。在7月报告中,长期失业的人290万,和此前基本持平。 机构观点:金价将再次被推到2000上方 尽管黄金近期冲高受阻,但在目前这种宏观环境下,黄金依然是很多投资者的选择。 Sprott U.S. holdings主席Rick Rule表示,尽管不认为美联储做的是对的,但为了在疫情影响下支撑美国经济,能做的确实有限。 为了推动美国经济增长,美联储会继续压低利率,金价也就将因此被继续推高。 负的实际利率就是这样,伤害的是储蓄者,利好的是消费者。在少数服从多数的情况下,总是消费者胜出,因为消费者数量更多,因此从这个角度而言,美联储只有一个选择,他们没有别的选择。 低利率能够在短期内支撑经济增长,但长期而言,金融市场被注入大量流动性的代价将被付出。 目前这种环境下,大部分投资者会注意到黄金。黄金以及贵金属相关的投资品只占美国全部储蓄和投资资产的1%左右,30年均值也只有2%。 Rule认为,黄金和相关资产投资占比将能够回到30年均值水平,也就是会有大量增长。 不过尽管在目前这种极大不确定之下,投资者们应当关注黄金,但Rule认为经济会有所复苏。一切都会好起来,买黄金作为保险措施就是一个过渡,因为现在的金价看起来非常便宜。
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serenzippity · 5 years
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I can’t sleep so I’m going to share with all my lovely followers my favorite gifs of my ten biases that are chilling on my computer. Yes, I have ten biases. I literally feel like I will spontaneously combust 99% of the time but I digress. Here are my babies in alphabetical order (stage names). 
Gifs are not mine, if they are yours let me know.
E:U (Everglow)
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Hyolyn (Sistar, now solo)
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Hyungwon (Monsta X)
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I.M (Monsta X)
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Jackson (Got7)
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JB (Got7)
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Lay (EXO)
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Lisa (BlackPink)
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Mark (Got7)
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Suho (EXO)
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breakbit · 5 years
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Jerome Powell Pledged Allegiance to Data and Some of It Looks Grim
New Post has been published on https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/jerome-powell-pledged-allegiance-to-data-and-some-of-it-looks-grim
Jerome Powell Pledged Allegiance to Data and Some of It Looks Grim
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© Bloomberg. Jerome Powell Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Jerome Powell gave the U.S. economy a thumbs-up review last month. Since then, the Federal Reserve chairman has received several reasons to temper his assessment.
On one hand, labor data are coming in strong and consumption figures look fine. On the other, the latest manufacturing, housing and market readings have given the central bank further reason to worry. That means when Powell speaks in Atlanta at 10:30 a.m. on Friday, he could justify a more cautious tone solely on the basis of observing the data-dependent approach he’s said the central bank will follow.
“The message he’s going to try to convey is that we are not on a preset course here,” said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo (NYSE:) in Charlotte, North Carolina. He expects the tone could tilt slightly dovish without actually signaling a pause. “They’re going to continue to say: we’ll watch the incoming data, growth is slowing, financial conditions have tightened, and we’ll react accordingly.”
For their part, investors see the next move being a cut, according to pricing in interest rate futures contracts. That would be the first such move in a decade.
Here’s a run-down of the data that have — and haven’t — changed since the Fed chief briefed the media on Dec. 19 after policy makers raised rates and signaled two more hikes in 2019.
Factory Pain
If there’s one place where the data are souring decisively, it’s manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index dropped by the most since 2008 last month and touched a two-year low. While the ISM gauge remains in expansionary territory at 54.1, just 11 of 18 industries reported growth in December. That’s the fewest in two years.
Production problems are far-reaching. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:). and IHS Markit’s global manufacturing index fell in December to the lowest level since September 2016 as measures of orders and hiring weakened, data showed this week.
Trade uncertainty and concerns about global growth seem to be an important factor in the recent U.S. weakness: tariff worries have surfaced repeatedly in Fed surveys. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:). cut its revenue outlook this week for the first time in nearly two decades thanks to weaker demand in China.
Housing Wobbles
Fed officials watch the housing market because it’s an interest-rate sensitive sector, and it’s been showing signs of cooling for months. That hasn’t abated since the Fed last met: the pending home sales index dropped 0.7 percent on a monthly basis in November, compared to an analyst expectation for a 1 percent gain. Home prices are still rising, but the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed that gains continue to moderate.
Market Souring
While it’s not a real-economy measure, the Fed closely watches market volatility because it can feed through to consumer and business sentiment and the real economy. Stocks saw the worst December rout since the Great Depression and a few near-term Treasury security yields have crept above their longer-term counterparts since Powell’s December press conference, a sign that investors were pessimistic about the outlook for growth.
That’s enough to make Powell’s colleague in Texas, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, argue for putting rate increases on hold for the first couple of quarters of 2019.
“This is a very critical time. We need to be very vigilant. We need to be on our toes. And I think patience is a critical tool we should be using during this period. We can get this right,’’ Kaplan told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Thursday.
Inflation Mixed
Inflation hasn’t taken a decisive step lower, but the headline index eased to 1.8 percent in November from 2 percent the prior month. That means that both the headline and the less-volatile core index are coming in below the Fed’s goal, a possible argument for not raising rates, all else equal.
Chaser: the Job Market
Still, with unemployment at 3.7 percent, some economists caution that inflation could move higher if labor shortages begin to bite — that’s partly why the Fed hiked rate four times last year.
The labor market has remained relatively impervious to the recent weakness in other data. Initial jobless claims, a key leading indicator of recession, remain very low. The U.S. probably added 180,000 jobs in December, based on the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That’s well above the level Fed officials think is necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady, a figure that hovers somewhere below or around 100,000.
The monthly U.S. employment report will be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington on Friday — giving Powell two hours to digest the figures before his big appearance.
Read More https://worldwide-finance.net/news/commodities-futures-news/jerome-powell-pledged-allegiance-to-data-and-some-of-it-looks-grim
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fx999blog · 4 years
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黄金交易提醒:经济复苏预期主导市场情绪,黄金多仓拥挤警惕回调风险,但多头仍不乏底牌 © Reuters. 黄金交易提醒:经济复苏预期主导市场情绪,黄金多仓拥挤警惕回调风险,但多头仍不乏底牌 周二(6月2日)现货黄金窄幅震荡,现报1739.73美元,涨幅0.03%。 周一因美国抗议活动叠加国际贸易担忧情绪升温,推动黄金刷新逾一周高点至1744.69美元。不过随着美欧的制造业出现复苏的迹象,推动全球股市上涨,这使黄金回吐涨幅。 总体而言对于经济复苏的预期短时间抵消了美国抗议活动叠加国际贸易担忧情绪升温的影响,因此市场需继续关注全球经济数据表现,如果经济数据持续好转,可能会继续打压金价。受股市回升的影响,基金经理减持了黄金ETF持仓。 但是分析人士指出,全球经济下行压力依旧高企,这可能推动更多的刺激措施,从长期看仍利多金价。 特朗普敦促镇压暴力抗议活动,各地担心出现更多破坏行为,因此对金价构成支撑 美国总统特朗普周一敦促各州州长镇压目前已席卷美国各大城市、针对种族不平等的抗议活动;而一些地方延长宵禁,期望能够阻止抢劫和肆意破坏财物的行为。特朗普称,联邦政府将对暴力实施“强力”打击。尸检报告显示,被警察跪压后死亡的弗洛伊德死于“机械性窒息”,与警方先前初步认定的结果不同。 美国一高级国防官员表示,军方正在增加派驻华盛顿特区的国民警卫队人数,并采取了一个非同寻常的行动,做好了派出现役军队应对抗议活动的准备。 纽约市于当地时间周一晚11点至周二凌晨5点实施宵禁,当晚将出动8000名警察。 除了美国的抗议活动外,国际贸易的担忧情绪也推动了黄金走高。受此影响,周一黄金突破1740美元关口,刷新逾一周高点。 经纪商OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示:“人们愈发担心国际贸易局势进展。”同时他补充说,美国多地发生街头抗议活动引发了将出现第二波疫情的担忧。 全球经济压力依然高企,美国经济可能需要10年时间才能回到疫情爆发前的水平 尽管经济复苏的希望使得市场的乐观情绪大幅回升,但是全球经济下行的压力依旧明显。 CNBC报导称,美国国会预算办公室(CBO)表示,该国经济可能需要10年时间才能回到疫情爆发前的水平。 CBO还称,疫情将使2020-2030年间美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)减少3%或7.9万亿美元。 在欧元区,5月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从4月触及的纪录低点有所回升,不过工厂活动仍大幅萎缩。而日本和韩国的经济活动出现了10多年来的最大降幅。 总体而言,尽管全球经济出现了温和复苏的迹象,但是总体而言仍压力明显,这也限制黄金的跌幅 关键摇摆州失业率超16%,特朗普竞选连任之路艰难,但拜登对股市或构成压力 在美国最大的一些摇摆州,预计大量失业的情况将从整个2020年一直持续到明年,这将给特朗普谋求连任带来严峻挑战。依赖旅游业和制造业的一些州,正经历3月疫情大流行以来最严重的失业问题,其中的摇摆州包括佛罗里达、密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和内华达。 研究公司IHS Markit称,在这些州,16%或更高的失业率预计将至少持续到2021年第一季度,依赖旅游业的内华达州情况最严重,失业率高达21%。 这项研究基于第一产业、人口密度和重开速度等多项标准对全美50个州进行了排名。研究结果表明,在失业率处于几十年高位的背景下,特朗普在打经济牌方面面临着重大障碍。 南佛罗里达大学前政治学教授Susan MacManus说:“显然,在经济方面民主党可以在竞选活动��对他大肆攻击任何被视为对总统不利的数据,都会很快被佛罗里达的民主党人用到针对他的广告中。”民主党总统竞选人乔·拜登已经在宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和佛罗里达州的民调中领先。IHS Markit预计,全美就业要到2024年才有望恢复至疫情前的水平。 墨尔本PEPPERSTONE研究部门主管CHRIS WESTON:“其影响将是双重的。首先是经济冲击,另外还有政治方面的,我认为市场已开始认识到,拜登获胜可能对风险资产略有不利--他在税收问题上被认为要强硬得多。” 如果近期市场对于拜登胜选的预期升温,可能会对美股造成压力,因而提振金价。 英欧谈判分歧仍然严重,渔业成谈判中棘手议题,无协议脱欧风险仍提振避险资产 6月2日至5日,英国和欧盟将举行未来关系最后一轮谈判。双方公布的日程显示,渔业将成为本轮谈判耗时最长的议题,其次是服务贸易和投资、公平竞争。 根据欧盟共同渔业政策,欧盟国家对彼此开放本国的海上专属经济区,欧盟给各成员国分配可捕捞配额。长期以来,大部分英国海域的捕捞配额都分配给了欧盟国家。英国认为此举不公。 从谈判策略上来说,欧盟打算将渔业与更广泛的贸易协议谈判挂钩。如果英国不向欧盟国家渔船开放海域,欧盟就不打算让英国金融服务业进入欧盟市场。金融服务业是英国经济支柱产业,英国对此非常关切; 英国业界人士说,双方谈判立场分歧严重,不可能在6月份弥合。若英方答应欧盟维持现状的要求,这将损害英国脱欧后成为独立沿海国家的法律地位。评论称,渔业是经济上最不重要的领域之一,但它关系到选票,因此双方才在渔业问题上争论不休 全球宽松浪潮继续支撑金价 富国银行(Wells Fargo)实物资产策略主管约翰·拉福格(John LaForge)表示,黄金市场有足够的上涨空间,但投资者不应期望在今年年底之前看到创纪录的高点。 LaForge表示,由于金价在每盎司1700美元上方拥有关键支撑,并且今年已经实现了两位数的涨幅,因此黄金今年表现不错。他补充说,随着央行采取永无限量的量化宽松措施和低利率政策,黄金将继续表现良好。 LaForge表示:“许多投资者都将黄金视为对冲印钞和低利率的避险工具,坦率地说,我们不知道后果如何。” LaForge说,即使不引入负利率,美联储仍然有足够的弹药来支持疫情摧毁的美国经济。他补充说,这将继续推高通胀压力并支持金价。在利率等于或低于零的情况下,黄金可以作为债券的替代品而成为避险资产。 他说:“有很多投资者不信任他们的政府,不相信政府能够维持财政秩序,甚至货币秩序。如果他们想要一个安全的避风港,而债券却不给他们任何回报。至少黄金对政府来说是不可知的。” LaForge说,他甚至认为,在美国通货紧缩的环境下,金价有可能表现良好,因为美国试图刺激经济增长并逐渐解除限制措施。他补充说,通货紧缩的环境将导致政府和央行做出更强有力的回应。他说:“我实际上把通缩看作是促使金价上涨的触发因素。” 尽管LaForge看好黄金,但他表示,他不认为黄金价格在年底前突破新的历史高位。他指出,每盎司1900美元的目标非常重要,要达到该水平可能需要一些时间。 “目前没有任何商品能接近10年前的高点,黄金同样也是,甚至还受到整个商品环境的拖累。因此,黄金正在抵抗这种趋势。我们确实需要看到金价令人信服地突破1900美元,它才能实现更加强力的上涨。” 对于经济复苏的预期抵消了其他负面影响,因此短时间仍限制黄金涨幅 美国股市周一上涨,因美国经济复苏迹象帮助抵消了在疫情尚未结束且国际贸易担忧情绪升温的情况下,对抗议活动不断向暴力骚乱发展的担忧。道琼工业指数收高91.91点,或0.36%,报25475.02点;标普500指数收高11.42点,或0.38%,报3055.73点;纳斯达克指数收高62.18点,或0.66%,报9552.05点 周一数据显示,美国5月制造业活动脱离11年低点,这是迄今最强烈的迹象,表明随着企业复工复产,经济衰退最糟糕的时期已经过去,不过由于失业率高企,从新冠危机中复苏可能需要数年时间。美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布,5月全国制造业活动指数升至43.1,4月为2009年4月以来最低的41.5。 随着美国股市在新冠疫情之后上演史诗级的复苏,交易员们正在重仓押注波动性反弹。做多CBOE波动率指数的两个最大型交易所交易产品上周总计录得超过3.7亿美元资金流入 欧洲股市也录得上涨,欧洲制造业复苏的迹象促使投资者继续买入周期性股票。泛欧STOXX 600指数收涨1.1%,持于3月9日以来最高水平,尽管德国、瑞士、丹麦和挪威市场休市导致交投清淡。法国股指收高1.43%,英国富时100指数收涨1.48%。 因此市场近期需要继续关注全球经济数据表现,如果有更多的迹象显示全球经济温和复苏,可能会推动资金进一步流入股市,这可能会打压金价。 因股市上涨,基金经理削减了黄金多头持仓 强劲的股票促使基金经理在最近一个报告周内缩减了其在黄金期货中的净看涨头寸。分析师称,随着股票上涨,投资者都在看涨的黄金头寸上获利,并且可能不太愿意继续买入黄金以作为避险工具。 CFTC的“分类”报告显示,截至5月26日,基金经理的黄金净多头头寸从前一周的127064手跌至113081手。下跌是由于长期平仓和新的空仓,反映在总空头减少了8395手,反映在总空头增加了5588手 道明证券(TD Securities)的一份研究报告称:“黄金投资者大举减仓,增加了一些空头。虽然货币膨胀肯定是黄金牛市背后的积极因素,但央行大量的流动性也帮助风险资产大幅走强,这反过来又给黄金的光环罩上了一层阴影。” Walsh Trading的商业对冲业务联席主管Sean Lusk表示,导致黄金交易商净多头仓位回落的因素,不仅是股市的强势,还包括金价无法突破技术上的关键阻力位。 荷兰银行:短时间黄金多头头寸过于拥挤 荷兰银行也对黄金短期的涨势持怀疑态度。该机构表示,黄金头寸仍然非常拥挤,因此目前不建议重新进入多头黄金头寸。 荷兰银行贵金属分析师乔治·博伊尔(Georgette Boele)表示:“我们继续认为当前黄金多头头寸太拥挤,价格过高。” 该银行预测在未来三个月内将黄金价格大幅下跌。Boele称。“从现在开始的三个月内,我们预计金融市场将出现另一波避险潮。我们认为投资者将结清部分黄金仓位(ETF和/或投机性仓位)。 Boele指出,过去一个月的黄金交易模式显示出回弹力,投资者逢低买入,金价始终坚守在1700美元/盎司上方。 “每次黄金出现出现回调,似乎投资者都在逢低买入黄金。黄金ETF的持仓量创下新纪录,接近1亿盎司。在投机性头寸平仓之后,投机者也显示出对黄金的新兴趣。” 基于此,Boele认为,长期来看黄金将继续走高,预计黄金第三季度收于每盎司1775美元,第四季度收于每盎司1800美元。 后市前瞻 ① 12:30 澳洲联储公布利率决议② 14:30 瑞士4月实际零售销售年率③ 16:30 英国4月央行抵押贷款许可 
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serenzippity · 5 years
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Can KPop idols stop stanning Chris Brown? That'd be wonderful.
Thanks for coming to my Ted talk.
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gershonposts · 7 years
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U.s. Ism Manufacturing Index Likely to have rebounded in May, says Wells Fargo
U.s. Ism Manufacturing Index Likely to have rebounded in May, says Wells Fargo
U.S. manufacturing sentiment, gauged by the ISM manufacturing index is expected to have bounced back in May after dropping slightly in April. The index had dropped to 54.8 in April from March’s print of 57.2. The production subcomponent continued to indicator improvement, but the new orders component weakened for the month. The closely watched employment component also softened in the month.…
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dan-bublitz-comedy · 4 years
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Episode 145: Jenni Lou Russi
Episode 145: Isms! Today I'm joined by comedian and college professor Jenni Lou Russi. We had an in depth conversation about ageism & sexism in comedy, living in campers, industry pay, and Jenni shares valuable insight on writing press releases. Plus more! Please rate, review, and subscribe! 
Jenni Lou Russi: 
Bio:
Jenni Lou Russi started performing Stand Up Comedy in Alaska in the early 90's, cutting her teeth on gigs in dive bars, remote fishing/hunting lodges, and Pierce Street Annex Comedy Club. After moving to the Lower 48 she worked the road, earned a graduate degree from Kent State University, and currently performs in bars your mother told you to avoid. Jenni Lou is proud to have participated in festivals, including Sno-Jam, Cleveland Comedy Festival, Alaska B4UDie, and Fargo Comedy Festival.
Website: http://jennilou.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jennilourussi/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JenniLouFunny2
Art of Bombing:
Website: https://www.artofbombingpod.com/  
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Dan Bublitz Jr: http://www.danbublitz.com/
Check out the latest episode of The Art of Bombing!
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U.S. Manufacturing Rebounds; Boeing, Coronavirus Loom
U.S. factory activity unexpectedly rebounded in January after contracting for five straight months amid a surge in new orders, offering hope that a prolonged slump in business investment has probably bottomed out.
A rebound in business investment is critical to keeping the longest economic expansion in history, now in its 11th year, on track amid signs of fatigue in consumer spending. The improvement in manufacturing reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Monday likely reflected an ebb in trade tensions between the United States and China.
But manufacturing, which accounts for 11% of the U.S. economy, is not out of the woods. Boeing <BA.N> last month suspended production of its troubled 737 MAX jetliner, grounded last March following two fatal crashes. The coronavirus, which has killed hundreds in China and infected thousands globally, could disrupt supply chains, especially for electronics producers.
“A first step toward de-escalation in the trade war certainly helped,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We are only beginning to understand the potential effects of the coronavirus outbreak and what it means for supply chains.”
The ISM said its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 50.9 last month, the highest level since July, from an upwardly revised 47.8 in December.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. The ISM index had held below the 50 threshold for five straight months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 48.5 in January from the previously reported 47.2 in December.
Washington and Beijing signed a Phase 1 trade deal last month. The deal, however, left in place U.S. tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese imports, about two-thirds of the total, which economists say will remain a constraint on manufacturing.
The ISM said “global trade remains a cross-industry issue, but many respondents were positive for the first time in several months.” The survey’s forward-looking new orders sub-index jumped to a reading of 52.0 last month, the highest since May, from a revised 47.6 in December.
A measure of exports orders raced to the highest level since September 2018, while a gauge of imports touched levels not seen in 11 months. Manufacturers also reported paying more for raw materials and other inputs. The survey’s measure of prices paid hit its highest level in 10 months, suggesting some building up of inflation pressures at the factory level.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged last week and could keep monetary policy on hold at least through this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that while manufacturing PMIs in many jurisdictions had moved up off of their lows, “I would just say none of this is assured.”
The 18-month-long U.S.-China trade war has pressured business confidence and undercut capital expenditure. Business investment contracted in the fourth quarter for the third straight quarter, the longest such stretch since 2009.
The ISM’s factory employment index rose to 46.6 last month from a revised reading of 45.2 in December. It, however, held below the 50 level, suggesting manufacturing payrolls could remain weak. Factory employment increased by 46,000 jobs in 2019 after rising 264,000 in 2018.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Treasury prices fell. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.
MIXED SURVEYS
The rebound in ISM’s closely watched national survey follows a series of mixed readings on the manufacturing sector at the regional level. A purchasing manager survey tracking the Chicago region slumped to a four-year low in January.
A manufacturing index from the Dallas Fed continued to show contraction in the district that covers Texas.
But factory activity in areas monitored by the Philadelphia and Richmond Fed showed significant improvement in January, closely aligning with ISM’s findings. A separate survey on Monday from data firm IHS Markit showed its manufacturing sector PMI fell to a reading of 51.9 in January from 52.4 in December.
“It is hard to tell a consistent story that covers all of the manufacturing surveys,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
Economists estimate Boeing’s biggest assembly-line halt in more than 20 years could slice at least half a percentage point from first-quarter GDP growth. The economy grew 2.3% in 2019, the slowest in three years, after expanding 2.9% in 2018.
The coronavirus could hurt global growth, which has been stabilizing after declining since mid-2018. The strengthening in the manufacturing surveys, including the ISM, has left some economists hopeful that the so-called hard manufacturing data like durable goods orders and industrial production would follow suit. They, however, caution that hard manufacturing data could remain soft for a while because of the production cuts at Boeing and supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus.
“The production cuts at Boeing could yet weigh on the hard data at the start of this year,” said Andrew Hunter, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in London. “The likely hit to manufacturing activity in China from the coronavirus shutdown could also become a headwind for U.S. producers, particularly those reliant on intermediate parts from China.”
While manufacturing appears to be stabilizing, the construction sector is showing some weakness. A separate report from the Commerce Department on Monday showed construction spending decreased 0.2% in December, the first drop since June, as investment in both private and public projects fell.
Construction spending increased 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in December. For all of 2019, construction spending fell 0.3%, the first annual decline since 2011, after rising 3.3% in 2018.
(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)
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Epic Road Trip Day 37– Winnipeg to Fargo
There is not much to break up the scenery between Winnipeg and Fargo, North Dakota. Two things come to mind: the border and a town called Grand Forks, the home of the University of North Dakota.
We crossed the border over and back into Canada three times this month at 4 different points, two in Maine as well as Michigan and North Dakota. On the prairies there is no noticeable change as you pass from one country to another, just miles and miles of flat farmland. The wind ripples the grass in the same way on both sides of the line.
Grand Forks (not to be confused with Grand Forks British Columbia or any other Grand Forks) is home to the Ralph Engelstad Arena, with a seating capacity of 11,634 for college hockey and every game is a sell-out. Vancouver Canucks star Brock Boeser won a national championship playing for the University of North Dakota Fighting Sioux/Hawks – a controversial name-change was required for political reasons.
Fargo is about an hour south of Grand Forks. Do you remember the Coen brothers film Fargo starring Frances McDormand – you betcha! Fargo has a great bike trail alongside the Red River which we rode for 12 miles. The trail begins on Roger Maris Drive, named for Yankee slugger (61 in ’61) and Fargo native son, Roger Maris. It was the sight of Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle hitting back-to-back homeruns for the New York Yankees in 1961 that caused Yogi Berra to utter the famous Yogi-ism, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”
An appropriate comment for driving days on the Prairies.
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multicurrency · 5 years
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[FX]US: ISM Non-Manufacturing at 20-month low - Wells Fargo https://t.co/3QDqUfEsvX April 03, 2019 at 04:47PM
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