#have some highly specific analysis on a 19-year-old game

[attonposting]

Can we stop to talk about the conversation with Atton where he rambles about women and the idea of love? Because good lord can this man project like a movie theater. We're talking fractal projection. Give him a frickin' medal, because it's projection all the way down.

It's a very missable bit of dialogue. You can only get it with a male Exile, and only then if you've cheesed off Brianna by causing her influence to dip 30 points below Visas's. Unfortunately, this also causes Brianna to permanently stop talking to you, so this is something you're only ever gonna see by accident. I only learned that could even happen pretty recently, and that's with maybe 6 male Exile playthroughs under my belt. I guess I'm just very thorough about exhausting everyone's dialogue options all the time.

So. Brianna's permanently cut herself off as a companion, courtesy of Kreia whispering in her ear, and that sucks. But at least your trashman pilot has something to say about it... and whoa boy is it a consolation prize. Atton proceeds to launch into an arm-around-your-shoulders buddy talk that has exactly nothing to do with your problems and everything to do with his personal issues.

Exile: The Handmaiden lost her temper with me.

Atton: Oh, there's a surprise. Trust me, she's a handful - all warriors are. They're not used to dealing with things they can't punch, kick, or break. Look, I know how it is. Me, there's no denying that I'm a good-looking guy. You have it worse, because even though you might not be as good-looking as me, you have that whole tortured past, that command presence. Women want to save you. They think they can help you.

Exile: What are we talking about?

Atton: They think that everyone can be redeemed, and that they're the only ones who can do it. And you don't know if it's you, or the idea of you that they love.

Exile: [Awareness] Are we talking about me or you?

Atton: We're just talking. Like I said, I've never understood women. It's possible they don't love you at all. That they just want to help you... help you hear yourself if you've gone deaf to your own voice. We all lose our way sometimes, and we need someone to pull us back.

Exile: [Awareness] Sounds like you've had that experience before.

Atton: Don't remember. Truth is, I still don't listen to my conscience even when it's shouting. I think there's times I'd rather be completely deaf than hear it. But all this talk doesn't matter. I'm not qualified to give advice. Besides, when I open my mouth, I'm usually lying anyway.

Like. Just. Holy shit, Atton. Yeah, he's clearly talking about the Jedi who tried to save him, but there's so much more to unpack in here. Let's break it down.

“Women want to save you. They think they can help you.” - Atton wants to save you. He wants to be the hero to your story, something he projects at Mical (to the latter's confusion), but which can also be read into a lot of his actions – when he starts taunting the assassin on Telos to draw heat off you, when he runs out on Nar Shaddaa to give you medpacs and do the same thing with the bounty hunters. The hard evidence is on Malachor. If Atton dies, he says it outright: “Did I save you yet?” And if he falls to the Dark Side, he tells Mical that “he wanted to protect [the Exile], to help her” before he lost his chance.

“They think that everyone can be redeemed, and that they're the only ones who can do it.” - Yeah, it's not really about helping the Exile. Atton needs to be the one that 'saves' you, as a balm to his own lack of purpose and self-worth, and he gets real pissy if anyone else does a better job helping you – or god forbid gets close to you. He's constantly insecure, he's unhappy with most new party members when they join up and, and seriously, the only crime Mical ever committed was being a genuinely good dude in a crew full of misfits. Too bad the galaxy's greasiest pilot reads that as a threat.

“And you don't know if it's you, or the idea of you that they love.” - Atton's attraction to you in a nutshell, and that's before you get the question of Force Bonds involved. Like, seriously. Does he genuinely love you as a person, or is he in love with you as an ideal – as someone who could stop running and face the music for their unforgivable crimes, as someone who actually tries to fix the damage they did? As someone who can still find it in them to care about people after the war broke them down? As a Jedi that actually lives up to the ideal both the Council and Revan failed to? As someone he believes he can relate to, because he thinks he knows your reasons for what you did? Are you a stand-in for his dead Jedi and his hundred conflicting feelings over her? Is he just in love with the idea of having a purpose and wants someone he can bury himself in? Is the idea of martyring himself and finally dying for a reason what he's really obsessed with? Pick your flavor, because who knows! He certainly doesn't!

“It's possible they don't love you at all.” - While this has a lot to do with him wondering why the hell anyone would have tried to save him, I also think this is him reflecting on his own confused feelings towards the Exile. They might not be romantic with an M!Exile (or if they are, he's having intense bi denial), but they're absolutely there and he does not know what to make of them.

“That they just want to help you... help you hear yourself if you've gone deaf to your own voice. We all lose our way sometimes, and we need someone to pull us back.” - This has nothing to do with the Exile, the Handmaiden, or anyone who isn't an ex-Sith assassin who had empathy forcibly shoved into their brain after years of progressively more fucked-up descent into all-consuming hatred.

“Truth is, I still don't listen to my conscience even when it's shouting.” - He almost gets away with this one, but Atton's deep in denial here. He doesn't want to hear it, but he can't turn it off, the same way he can't stop feeling things when he used to have total control of his emotions (because he barely felt anything at all.) It's all why he can't go back to who he was, even though he badly misses the certainty he used to feel. Atton is a pro at ignoring his conscience, which definitely has nothing to do with how much he hates himself, total coincidence... but as soon as the Exile gets involved, that goes out the window, because Atton's self-preservation glitches out. Their Force wound tugs on his better nature... or it yanks at his opposite. And if that happens, Atton is very aware of what's happening to him. He succumbs, but he has more to say on the Exile's fall than anyone short of Kreia. And light or dark, his (im)moral compass gets jarred from 'cover my own ass' to 'protect the Exile' and he repeatedly sticks his neck out for no gain, so yeah, I call bullshit here. He's smack in the middle of his biggest crisis of conscience since the Sith.

“Besides, when I open my mouth, I'm usually lying anyway.” Well, at least he admits it.

#kotor ii #kotor 2 #atton rand #disaster man extraordinaire #slaps ribbed jacket #this bad boy can fit so much projection in it #you can also get atton to say she woke him up inside and i cannot possibly react to this in any other way than yelling evanescence lyrics #happy may the 4th! #have some highly specific analysis on a 19-year-old game

[redbeardace]

Between Panic and Indifference

Okay, serious post time.

As you may know, I live near Seattle.  And if you’ve been paying attention to the news (in between the politics), you’ll know that we’re currently going through a bit of something.  I’ve been making jokes about it, but I sort of want to talk seriously about some of what it’s like here right now.

Quick recap:  About a month ago, it was announced that the first case of COVID-19/coronavirus had popped up in Everett, Washington.  Everett’s one of the larger suburbs of Seattle, home to a Boeing airplane factory, FunkoPop HQ, and Half-Price Books that I go to once in a while.  It was someone who’d been to Wuhan in China and got sick after returning to the US.  He went to the doctor, got quarantined, and that was it.  The system worked, the disease was contained, the guy got better.  And that was it.

Until last week.  Last week, they closed Bothell High School “out of an abundance of caution” in order to clean it, because a family member of someone who works at the school had gotten sick after returning from overseas travel.  Bothell is a smaller suburb than Everett.  It’s largely unremarkable, one of those places that takes up three exits on the freeway, but no one really understands why.  It’s also where I live, so hearing that the high school was closed was a bit unnerving, but also a bit ridiculous because it was all speculation.  It was a family member of a school worker, and that employee was staying home.  And it turned out that there was nothing to it, that family member did not have COVID-19.  But at least the high school got cleaned.

False alarm, back to your regularly scheduled--

Scoop Jackson High School in Mill Creek is closed on Friday, this time for a confirmed case.  Mill Creek is an even smaller suburb, sandwiched between Bothell and Everett, and it’s where my post office and a grocery store I go to is. A student had the “flu” earlier in the week, went to the doctor, the doctor said go home, get better.  So the student did that.  They got better and went back to school on Friday.  Unbeknownst to them, their doctor had performed a coronavirus test.  The student hadn’t been out of the country, hadn’t been around anyone who’d been out of the country, so they shouldn’t have had it, the doctor was just performing the test as part of some study.

It was positive.

They hadn’t been out of the country.  They hadn’t been around anyone who had been.  The only known case in the area had been contained.  There were a few cases in California that were mysterious, but at least those were linked to a possibly mismanaged quarantine situation.  But in Mill Creek, there wasn’t any of that.  Sure, it’s next to Everett where the first case was, but that was contained.  So what the hell?

Later that night, there was another case of “possible coronavirus” in Bellevue, the city where I work.

Then Saturday happened.  The first confirmed death, in Kirkland, Washington.  You know Kirkland as the Kirkland from “Kirkland Brand” at Costco.  I know Kirkland as the place I drive through on my commute that’s between Bothell and Bellevue.  Several more hospitalizations.  A news conference talks about the death and the hospitalizations and, almost as a side note, mentions 50+ people connected to a nursing home, also in Kirkland, as showing symptoms.  Fifty people.  I’m going to come back to that.  None of these people had been to China or Italy and I don’t think any of them knew anyone who had.  So what the hell?

Later that night, a scientist from a local research facility posts a short Twitter thread that potentially could have gone unnoticed.  It’s a Twitter thread for crying out loud, who knows what kind of crackpot this could be?  But it’s not a crackpot.  It actually is a local research scientist.  The thread kinda gets right to the point.  An analysis of a sample of the virus from the first patient genetically matches a sample of virus from the Mill Creek student, therefore it is highly likely that the virus has been circulating around the area, on the loose, for six weeks.

Oh.

That deadly disease that we’ve been watching cripple other parts of the world, killing thousands.  That’s here.  Now.  And it’s been here for weeks.

And by here, I mean HERE.  You may have noticed that all those cities I mentioned are places that I go regularly.  “Here” is literally right outside my door.  I am in the bright red bullseye of the hot zone, as this virus swirls around me.

After Saturday, it’s a bit of a blur what happened when, but the specifics really don’t matter.  More cases, more deaths, a Seattle skyscraper closes, Amazon closes, Microsoft closes, more schools close, including the entire Northshore School District (the district I live in), which closed today for the next two weeks.

--

So that’s the recap.  That brings us up to now.  But you could’ve gotten all that by watching the news.  I’m really writing this post to talk about what it’s like here at the moment.

I think the scariest thing about it all is that we don’t know how scared to be.  We’re used to thinking of disasters in terms of a concrete event.  Something happened, you can see the impact.  An earthquake, a school shooting, a hurricane, a terrorist attack, a volcanic eruption, a nuclear meltdown.  Most of the time, it ends, you can count the bodies, tally up the damage, and that’s that.  Even in a longer term event, you can see the lava coming and get out of the way or look at a map of the Chernobyl or Fukushima exclusion zones and avoid those places.

But this is an invisible disaster.  It’s literally in the air around us.  It’s on door handles and shopping carts and library books.  Your coworker or neighbor or roommate could be The Thing, and you have no way of knowing.  We’re playing a dangerous game of tag against an invisible opponent, and you have no idea you’re it until way too late.  

Even worse, we have absolutely no idea whatsoever how bad it actually is.  The latest official number I can find as of this writing is that there are 39 confirmed cases, and ten of those have died.  A significant number of those cases are associated with that nursing home I mentioned earlier.  So 39 isn’t bad at all, out of a couple million people in this region.  Even if you limit it to just the “bright red bullseye of the hotzone”, that’s several hundred thousand people.  So 39 out of that is nothing.  But you’ll remember that I mentioned that there were 50+ people connected to that nursing home that were sick, and only some of them are counted in that 39 number.  Then there’s a bunch of firefighters in the area who went to that nursing home, who are sick.  Family members who are sick.  And that student in Mill Creek and the first guy who died got it from somewhere...  And other random people just popping up here and there who had to get it from somewhere.  You add those all up, and it’s probably 100+ cases, but for some reason, they’re not yet confirmed (or even tested), so they don’t show up in the official counts yet.

They weren’t really testing people who hadn’t been overseas or been in contact with someone who had been, until this week.  It’s been here, on the loose, for six weeks.  There are probably thousands of cases that have gone undiagnosed.  For most people, it’s like the flu.  So how many cases of the “flu” were really COVID-19?  They’re retroactively discovering people who died prior to Saturday who had it.  Their deaths had been chalked up to some other respiratory disease.

So it’s here and it’s killing people.  But...  It’s been here for six weeks and we’re not all dead yet.  So what does that mean?  Is the disease not actually as bad as people feared?  Sure, it sucks if you get it and it’s really bad if you’re old or already sick, but so’s the flu, and we haven’t panicked about that since Seattle made it to the Stanley Cup.  If that’s the case then maybe this is as bad as it gets, which, frankly, isn’t that bad at all and we’re all overreacting.  Or are we just at the start of the spread and it’s about to go Beast Mode on us and lay us flat for two years?  We don’t know.

Everything’s shutting down except huge gatherings like ECCC and the Sounders games.  King County just bought a motel to use as a quarantine site.  Stay in your car on the ferry.  Awkwardly jab elbows instead of shaking hands.  But only ten people have died out of 4 million, and all of those ten had “underlying conditions”, and it hasn’t been bad enough for anyone to notice until now, so...

So what are we supposed to do about all this?  Raid every store for every last bottle of Purell and every last roll of toilet paper and hunker down in our homes like it’s the end of days?  Or do nothing in particular because enh no biggie?

It’s like we’re standing on a beach and we’ve been told that maybe a tsunami is coming.  We’ve been standing here for a month and a half, and the water is up to our ankles and we’ve just noticed our feet are wet.  Is the tsunami still coming?  Is this the tsunami?  Or is this just the tide?

It’s weird living like this.  You find yourself doing things in different ways, noticing things you never noticed.  Every morning now, I’m checking my work email before driving in, just in case we’ve been told to work from home “out of an abundance of caution”, or worse, told that we need to self-quarantine because someone in the office tested positive.  Every night, I bring my laptop home in case this is the last day I’m in the office for a while.  Everyone’s telling a lot of morbid jokes.  Traffic is amazing.  There are even spots on the second level of the parking garage and there are NEVER spots on the second level when I get in.  Every cough is treated with suspicion, and your coworkers cough a lot.  Every door handle is treated with suspicion, and there are a lot of door handles. No one from the other offices is allowed to travel to our office and we’re not allowed to go elsewhere.  I’m getting targeted ads for hand sanitizer and Windex. I had a slight tickle in my throat that might just be allergies, but I started mentally doing contact tracing of everywhere I’d been and everyone I’d talked to over the past two weeks.  I’ve never even considered that I might have allergies before.  I have a day off tomorrow, so do I risk going to the store to make sure I have at least three weeks of supplies, instead of only the two weeks I currently have, just in case?  Or do I go to the store just to see the circus of empty shelves?  Or do I go to the store to buy an Xbox One X so if I do get quarantined, at least I can be quarantined with True 4K Gaming?

--

I was listening to the radio this morning, and they were interviewing musician Dave Matthews about the coronavirus.  He was talking about touring while this is going on, and how he might come home to Seattle between the legs of his tour, and he said something like “We’ve got to find a balance between panic and indifference”.  And I just felt like that’s the best possible way to describe where we are right now.

Seattle:  Somewhere between panic and indifference.

#covid19 #coronavirus #seattle #but seriously seattle y'all gotta learn about disaster preparedness #we live in an earthquake zone #and ya ain't gonna be able to pop down to Costco to get a cartful of water #when the full rip 9 hits us #why do you need a cartful of water anyway #you know there's a device in your kitchen that gives you water right #and it's probably going to be fine through all this #this virus isn't going around causing water main ruptures #life in the hot zone #that was a longer post than I was planning

[mysaldate]

On the topic of BSD mental issues..

Because a lot of people in this fandom just LOVE to bestow their own mental problems on characters and even go so far as to claim not a single BSD character is mentally alright, I went on a little rant to debunk this bulshit of a claim. If you’re one of those who support the “everyone is mentally ill because I said so” theory, don’t even bother reading this, please, and save us both the time.

If you do read, however, please keep in mind those are just my opinions and analysis and why I personally find the claim that everyone is mentally ill bulshit. You’re free to believe what you want but I’ve had multiple people come spurting out insults at me simply for not believing every single character is mentally diasbled.

First, our beloved ADA Atsushi - He's actually doing really well. Sure, he's not 100% ok but we were given no serious childhood trauma impacts (except for flashbacks that don't really... do anything to him mentally except for motivating him to do better which is, you know, not a sign of mental illness), he doesn't have self-destructive tendencies, he doesn't feel like he owes the society anything but he doesn't slip to nihilism either. His motivations are humane and sane and relatable. I mean, if anyone told you your friends would be in mortal danger if you stay with them, wouldn't you try to get away from them too? Dazai - Ok, Dazai is far from stable. He still handles his issues surprisingly well though and his constant suicide attempts are really played off as a joke, which is not the best way to handle them but it takes a lot of seriousness from it and kind of makes it hard to believe it's what he actually wants to do with his life. Especially since there are times where he goes out of his way to make sure he stays alive (Dead Apple being just one example). Kunikida - Arguably one of the most stable characters in the show. Some people claim he has OCD but have you ever seen an actual OCD patient? His love for schedules and hard time when they can't be kept is something that runs in my family and nobody has ever been diagnosed with OCD. People need to realize that having your life planned out is not a mental illness. Yosano - I'm a little more benevolent about Yosano, especially since she has a more psychotic side to her and she seems actually damaged by her childhood but I stiil stand my point that she is doing extremely well for someone who supposedly has a mental illness. It's almost as if the "insane" side of her was purposedly overblown for comedic purposes. Ranpo - I know a lot of people say he's autistic but I don't agree with that hc. Why? Well, I have a classmate who's not autistic and she's exactly like him. She's smart, almost genius, has great deduce skills and brilliant crime-solving abilities (tested multiple times with Black Stories or whatever that game is called in english) but she is unable to live on her own. She knows close to nothing about real life, skills used for everyday functioning and as for public transport, she only learnt how to use it recently and she's almost 19 years old. I also have an autistic friend who specifically said he'd find it insulting to hear that Ranpo is supposedly autistic. Tanizaki - I'm not sure what to say here, Tanizaki is a normal guy. Nothing special about him. He's willing to go great lengths for his little sister but I think anyone with younger siblings can relate to that. At least anyone who cares for their younger siblings. Kenji - Go on and tell me how Kenji of all people has a mental illness, I dare you. And if you pull out his cheeriness, you're obviously just too depressed to fathom that some people might actually enjoy life. Fukuzawa - Again, one of the most stable characters in the series. Say what you will but he's not unstable and his ability to stay calm at almost any situation except for when his kids are in danger is just further proof of this. Kyouka - I'd say she might have issues. My afforementioned autistic classmate pointed out that she feels autistic to him so there's that. Also her childhood visibly screwed her over. However, she's still surprisingly stable and normal despite all of that so while she might have some issues, they are greatly balanced by her strong will and natural personality. Naomi - I wouldn't say Naomi is 100% ok in the head but not to a point where I'd claim an actual mental illness. Sure, I'm not a doctor but nor is anyone who diagnoses her with whatever it is they diagnose her with. Haruno - And exactly what is wrong about Haruno? She's cute, positive, cheery, hard-working and supportive. And she gets scared in situations that invoke this. Literally NOTHING weird.

Next up is our dear Port Mafia Akutagawa - No denying it, Aku has serious issues. Again though, he's doing far better than most people with similar problems but that could just be due to him letting his frustrations out via murder. Chuuya - No issue found here. Sure, he's a little short-tempered but that's about it. A lot of people are short-tempered without being mentally ill. And he could be portrayed with some serious issues due to his origin and past. Gin - Do we even know enough about her to diagnoze her? All we know is that she's silent, a little shy and that she's always on odds with Tachihara. Make me a diagnosis from that. Higuchi - Aside from her massive crush on Aku, there's nothing weird about her. She probably picked the wrong job but she's willing to work hard anyway to earn her place there,, which is not exactly typical for people with mental illnesses. Hirotsu - STABLE PERSON. Just... what else is there to him? He is literally the voice of reason who commands the black lizard solely because he can actually keep them under control. Geez, there is literally nothing linking him to any mental problem! Kajii - This guy's got issues, no denying it. And I won't even say he could do worse because obviously he could but he's fairly close to being the insanest (is that a word?) he can get. Kouyou - Oh look, ANOTHER completely stable person. I mean, come on, she's been an executive since Dazai and Chuuya were 15, that's seven years. Clearly she couldn't hold her position if she weren't stable. Not to mention, we saw her being stable in stressing situations so. many. times. Elise - She's an ability. No comment. Mori - Yes, he has his issues. But he's the hypercompetent Mafia boss who stayed in charge for a very long time already and there's no sign of anyone overthrowing him any time soon, nor planning to because he's just a great leader, something he couldn't be if he was mentally ill. Oda - Do I even need to elaborate on this? Oda is very probably the sanest person we got, one who sees the wrongs of his past and does his best to overcome them and repent, all of which goes without him being depressed or self-loathing in the slightest. Randou - This has been talked about a lot. Randou is sensitive and impulsive and sometimes acts on emotions rather than rationallity. None of that makes him a mentally ill person. It just makes him a person, a human being we can all relate to. Ace - Ace is a selfish human being who thinks too highly of himself and is manipulative and abusive. Is that a problem? Yes, obviously. Is that a mental illness? Not necessarily and more likely no than yes. He does things for his personal gain and everything went his way for far too long for him to expect it to go any other way. And as we all know, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutelly. Q - Does anyone really think Q is sane?

Now for the group that so many people dislike it’s honestly sad, the Guild Francis - Francis is, first and foremost, a very loving husband and father. He goes on this insane mission to Japan to obtain a mystical object he believes is real but never got any deffinite proof of. Is he naive? Perhaps so. And after he loses, he gets depressed and broken because he finds out his wedding ring disappeared, probably because his wife did something. That breaks him. And honestly? He has every right to break down. It's understandable and human and it does not make him mentally ill. Louisa - While yes, she is very shy and some argue she has some sort of anxiety disorder, all of this can be explained by the fact that she's practically a child. She's 18 dammit. Who could leave their home country at 18 only with an organization of older people, who also all seem very sure of themselves, while having no combat ability and nothing to really bring to the table? If she were mentally weak, there's no way she'd go looking for Francis after his fall, it's actually more likely she'd hurry back home, probably with tears and fear of being arrested if she were to stay in Japan for longer. Margaret - Name me one thing that makes you think Margaret of all people would have a mental issue. One thing. Most of her screentime is her being a vegetable. And while that is certainly a health problem, not a mental health one. Nathaniel - Hey, he was completely ok before meeting Fyodor. Being religious is not a mental health problem and f you if you say otherwise. John - Again, nothing unstable about John. He's not even that selfish, doing what he can to support his family and even picking up the remainings of the Guild to keep the people together and give them new hope because, y'know, hope is very important to people. Lovecraft - He's not even human. You can't apply human mental health logic to him. Herman - We've seen him for how much... 2 minutes total? And even from just that, he seemed like a calm and composed guy. No sign of mental problems whatsoever. Mark - He's hyper, that's what people say at least. But is he really? Kind of hard to believe when all we've seen of him is two scenes of adrenalin rush, one scene where he tries to lift the spirits of his coworkers and one scene where he just decides to go back home because this adventure is obviously over. No sign of mental illness here either. Lucy - A little more visible traumatic impact than with Atsushi and some abandonment issues, which are completely understandable and relatable. Not necessarily a mental illness. Poe - Ok so Poe doesn't feel well in company of others and he is a little psychotic when he gets too into his self-assigned role but 1) introverts are not mentally ill and 2) it's completely natural to get carried away when we witness the person we believe wronged us getting some karma back.

The one group that appeared for such a short time, yet everyone seems to love them, the Rats Fyodor - The most obvious god complex, clearly. He's not sane but he's stable so there's that. Nobody says he's ok, he's clearly not. But he's composed and smart enough to not let his issues control him. Ivan - Part of his brain is literally gone. He's not ok. he can't be. And unless part of your brain is missing too, you physically can't relate to him. Pushkin - Actually a stable, understandable character. Weak men are known through all of history to be the causes of major drama simply because their complexes over being weak lead to them finding joy in torturing the strong. It's not a mental illness, it's just bad character. Oguri - Clearly, Ogugu has issues. Call it survivor's guilt or PTSD or whatever you want, he has issues. Nobody is denying that. Still, he's doing fairly well when not desperatelly trying to seem evil.

I do not feel like doing the Hunting Dogs for the sole reason of me not liking them enough to focus on their mental states but they are pretty much lab rats, artificially enhanced humans and that alone should be enough to explain why I don’t believe in applying normal psychology to them. As for the Decay of Angels, there’s still much more to learn about them so I won’t get into that just yet. And when it comes to the governmental agents, I haven’t read the novels so I only know a bit about Ango and I honestly don’t see how anyone could think Ango has a mental illness.

I repeat again, these are my opinions, based on my experiences and what I’ve studied about mental illnesses (because believe it or not, I study about these things quite a lot). It doesn’t fit except for Tumblr romanticised versions of them and even those are iffy. You’re free to agree and disagree with all of this or with just certain parts but please don’t feel required to share your thoughts, I frankly don’t much care.

With that I bid you goodbye, at least until another thing prompts me to make a long-ass analysis almost nobody will read, nor care for.

#bungou stray dogs #the guild #port mafia #armed detective agency #atsushi nakajima #bsd atsushi #dazai osamu #bsd dazai #kunikida doppo #bsd kunikida #yosano akiko #bsd yosano #ranpo edogawa #bsd ranpo #tanizaki junichirou #bsd tanizaki #kenji miyazawa #bsd kenji #fukuzawa yukichi #bsd fukuzawa #naomi tanizaki #bsd naomi #haruno kirako #bsd haruno #kyouka izumi #bsd kyouka #akutagawa ryunosuke #bsd akutagawa #chuuya nakahara #bsd chuuya

[chilly-territory]

K Case Files of Blue 2, chapter 3 (part 2 out of 3)

Continuing with chapter 3.

Case Files of Blue 2 by Miyazawa Tatsuki

Chapter 3 (part 2/3) (volume 2, pages 139-168)

†

"Upon a closer look at the two questions, it becomes clear that the method used is actually quite simple."

At the time when Fushimi and Doumyouji started their game of tag on premises of the Scepter 4 headquarters, Munakata was providing systematic answers to the two questions that Benzai had posed.

"Let us start with your former question first. You asked about the means that were utilized to find strain criminals. Benzai-kun, please recall how exactly Kounomura-shi had taken the comicalarious photos featuring us at the beginning," Munakata prompted while making up a peculiar new combo word.

Benzai took a few seconds to think.

"Some were peeping photos taken from a long distance. Others were illegally obtained through hacking of surveillance cameras." And then it dawned on him. "Huh? Could it be..." "That is right." Munakata nodded. "Kounomura-shi hacked every camera he could find, from security cameras legally installed within the city to private cameras for personal use. And that is all there is to it. His next step was to compilate a program that would search for a specific element in all the countless footage he had obtained." "A program?" "Yes, a program, and the scope it works with was probably the whole of the capital’s metropolitan area."

Benzai was lost for words.

So to put it another way...

The implications were such that of late, Kounomura had been watching not only the daily lives of the Scepter 4 members but of all the ordinary citizens as well.

"I believe I mentioned this before," Munakata continued dispassionately, "but Kounomura-shi is sending us a message. In this case, it is his manner of showing us that this way information crucial to the investigation of a crime can be obtained in advance. Thus, not putting this method to good use makes us negligent as an organization..." "But," Benzai spoke over Munakata's next sentence before listening to it, "that's basically blatant disregard of human rights." "Isn't that lovely? He is right. He did hit a nerve with that message."

When he processed Munakata's last utterance, Benzai gawked. Fuse, too, was staring at Munakata in bewilderment. And only the criminal accompanying them, Tamada, lifted his head in pleased surprise and took his first good look at Munakata. Munakata coughed to clear his throat.

"...I suppose that statement was a little inappropriate for the king tasked with protection of order. Needless to say, it is necessary to uphold citizen's rights to the best of our ability. However, it does not change the fact that Kounomura-shi has located multiple strain criminals that we had failed to find, and in such short time, too. I think this deserves consideration."

Both Benzai and Fuse couldn't quite decide how to reply to that. Tamada, on the other hand, was staring at Munakata intently.

"To continue, let us move on to the other question Benzai-kun posed, about the means our opponent used to bring the strain criminals he had found under his control and make them scatter across the country." Munakata showed a quick smile. "For that, he conducted a psychological analysis, anticipated their responses and coaxed them accordingly. As simple as that."

Everyone fell silent. Benzai and Fuse said nothing, showing some reserve towards their superior, but Tamada the criminal retorted sharply on their behalf for some reason.

"No, you can't just wrap it up with a friggin 'as simple as that'!"

Benzai and Fuse thanked Tamada with their eyes for his unreserved statement.

Munakata smiled.

"For the record, you can't convince me a punk like you has exceptional brains or a super complex personality or shit like that. But still. But still, man, it's just friggin impossible to read what a person is thinking like an open book, or push their buttons that easily!" "Except," Munakata's smile never wavered, "I did precisely that to determine that you were hiding in a deserted house on the hill behind your parents' home and capture you. All I did for that was to copy Kounomura-shi's method."

Neither Munakata's expression nor his tone fluctuated any. He was still smiling as he informed the other party in a level voice. And that was likely why he inspired shudder-inducing awe the way he was being at that moment.

Tamada was left speechless. "Uh..."

Benzai and Fuse looked at Tamada silently but ardently, urging him to muster his strength. Perhaps, finding courage in those gazes, Tamada attempted to rebuke Munakata.

"Still, it could be just a coincidence." "No, it is not. It is a highly accurate scientific method called the Probabilistic Future Decision-making Theory, also known as the Coin Toss theory." "Wait." To Fuse, that sounded familiar. "Isn't that..." "Correct. It is the theory at the heart of the internet service combining personal-use SNS, online shopping, video hosting and information retrieval run by James D Sevr-shi whom Kounomura-shi took advantage of to return to Japan. Now, do any of you have experience using the Coin Toss service?"

Benzai and Fuse only shook their heads in reply, but Tamada alone raised his hand.

"That's one heck of a convenient service, lemme tell you. Yeah, seriously, it's awesome."

Munakata nodded. "The main selling point of Coin Toss is it gets progressively more personalized with each use and tailored to one's ways of thinking and tastes, constantly updating with information and features the user most desires. Sevr-shi originally studied biotechnology, focusing on random changes in self-replicating life at the time, and he apparently sought a way to apply his research to forecasting the future. When I met him, he said a certain thing to me: 'from a high enough place, all coincidences become inevitability,' to quote loosely." "...But, no, wait." Tamada immediately chimed in with friendliness more appropriate when talking to a colleague. It appeared he became genuinely interested in this discussion with Munakata. "It's just an internet service, right? Saying it can do shit like reading your mind and predicting what you'll do is clearly an overreach, no matter how you slice it?" "Good observation." Munakata raised a finger in compliment to Tamada, like one would praise a child. "Indeed. Being an internet service with unspecified large number of users, its servers are not nearly powerful enough for that task. However, an exhaustive analysis is simply the matter of enough processing power. If one had a computer with necessary and sufficient performance, through application of the Coin Toss theory making exhaustively accurate predictions of the actions a person would take becomes possible." "That necessary and sufficient performance - how much are we talking?" "About what a supercomputer can muster."

Tamada gaped at that.

Taking up where he left off, Fuse asked the main question.

"Excuse me, sir, but how could Kounomura get his hands on a supercomputer?" "I heard Coin Toss Corporation has its own supercomputer for research purposes on Hawaii. I imagine he borrowed it."

Fuse fell into stupefied silence. Munakata's way of saying that was so mundane like he was talking about borrowing miso or soy sauce from a neighbor.

"Huh? Please wait a second, Captain." This time, it was Benzai. "Just earlier, you said you ran the same analysis to determine Tamada's actions, didn't you? Does that mean you went to...?"

But Munakata shook his head. "No, not quite. I used a domestic device." "Domestic?" "Yes. I borrowed the computer that His Excellency Gold King, Kokujouji Daikoku-shi, uses to analyze the Slate. His Excellency owed me a small favor for what happened this time."

The things Munakata was saying so calmly and nonchalantly made even Benzai fall silent then.

"Hey," Tamada commented in whisper to Benzai, "your place's boss is friggin ridiculous."

All Benzai could was to stretch his lips in a strained smile at that.

Munakata, on the other hand, was cheerful to the limit.

"Luckily, Tamada-shi's data from the time the previous Blue King arrested him still remained in Zenjou-san's archive room. I ran my analysis based on that. Only," Munakata's expression clouded somewhat, "unfortunately, with the exception of Tamada-shi, information on the other criminals is mostly non-existent."

It was at that time that something suddenly occurred to Benzai.

"Um, Captain." "Yes, what is it?" "While I was working on those cases, I compiled somewhat detailed profiles on the perpetrators of each case in the hopes of finding a common link. Would those be of use to you, maybe?"

Now it was finally Munakata's turn to be surprised.

"Benzai-kun, you are wonderful. Good job!"

Benzai felt relief wash over him. He did manage to be useful to Munakata, if only a little.

†

The longer Doumyouji ran around the night HQ, escaping from Fushimi, the more he was having. The chase allowed the 19 year old airhead to display his real ability, and Doumyouji ran with a big smile on his face. To him, it felt like a game of tag.

After all, the work he had to do lately built up a lot of stress in him.

"You ass! Doumyouji! Get back here! Stop, damn you!" the profanities shouted from behind him only added more thrill to the game, spicing it up quite splendidly.

While the scene may have looked like a teacher chasing an enthusiastic kindergartner who escaped from the kindergarten, it should be mentioned that both participants were the same age.

Doumyouji ran through a hallway with flexible agility and jumped down the stairway; once, he barged into Enomoto and Fuse's room, stepped over Enomoto who was groaning uneasily in his sleep and was gone, happily running away from Fushimi. As he ran around, he ended up tumbling into a certain room located at the end of a dead-end hallway. Alert and cautious, he produced a flashlight to illuminate the room's interior.

And almost immediately he couldn't help a disappointed, "Oh, it's that room..."

Once before, when he was searching the headquarters high and low for anything that could be Munakata's bedroom, he discovered this small room. It was furnished exceedingly modestly, having only a desk and a bed, and Doumyouji decided it was a spare room for visitors.

"You piece of shiiit," came from behind him.

Fushimi, breathing a little rough, had caught up with him. In his left hand he held a lantern, while cracking loudly the knuckles of his right, clearly intending to punch Doumyouji.

"Doumyoujiiiii," he articulated. "Hope you're ready for what's to--- Mm? The hell? Ain't this Captain's private room?" "Eh?" At Fushimi's words, Doumyouji, who dropped his center of gravity low and was ready to gleefully flee again, straightened in surprise. "...Fushimi-san. What did you just say?" "Huh?" Fushimi's expression looked vicious. "I said, this is Captain's friggin room." "Huh? Wait? Uhnm... but I thought Captain doesn't have a room...?" "Are you an idiot? Of course he does. Captain is a human, too," Fushimi spat out. "Obviously he does things like resting and sleeping like the rest of us." "But..." "He just works all the time like a moron. Since he's got abnormally huge raw stamina reserves and mental fortitude, those around him mostly only always catch him awake. That's why a stupid spooky tale of him not having a room even came into existence." Fushimi's lips twisted. "But even he is only human. No different from the rest of us." The wording was complicated, not only - or necessarily - conveying goodwill. "Then again," Fushimi added with the undertone of irony, "if I hadn't accidentally glimpsed him exiting this room, I would never have guessed this is his room. Not that I had any interest to begin with." "..."

Doumyouji was staring intently at the room around them lit by the lamp. Munakata's civilian clothes and accessories were probably stored in the closet, but it was almost strange how this room was utterly devoid of anything resembling personal effects anywhere in sight. That was something that struck a cord in Doumyouji somehow.

He was the type who sucked at putting things into words. As such, now, as well, he couldn't find a good way to express the emotion that was surging in him. But if he had to try and find a word for it despite that... He'd say this blank empty room was overflowing with Munakata's "resolve". That's how it looked to Doumyouji's eyes.

"Fushimi-san," Doumyouji suddenly spoke up. His face turned very serious. "I'll do it." "Huh?" "Paperwork. I'll do my damnest to deal with it. Yep. It just occurred to me that I must give it my best effort." "..." Fushimi gave Doumyouji a brief glance of puzzlement and suspicion. Then he snorted. "I have no idea what brought that on, but nice resolve there. And out of respect for that resolve of yours, I'll make sure to squeeze every last bit of effort outta you." The last part was said in a threatening tone.

Doumyouji turned pale in the face.

"Ah, erm, on second thought, could you, uh, maybe go easy on me, after all, please?" "Shut up. Let's go!"

With that, Doumyouji was escorted out of the room by the watchful Fushimi, leaving it behind.

And then, the light in the data processing room was on all night.

†

After barely waking up, Enomoto buried his face in the pillow once again. His blood pressure was always low to begin with, so he was never a morning person, but lately, due to barely getting any sleep at all, even after waking up, his head was full of white haze and he didn't feel rested at all.

Still, he forced himself up through sheer willpower and headed towards the common use bathroom, washing his face, brushing his teeth and making effort to smooth out the bristling hair on his temples with water. But no matter how he tried, this particular case of bed hair was just too much for Enomoto to handle, so he finally gave up on styling his hair at all.

Feeling down, he made his way to the data processing room. For breakfast, he bought a jello drink. Draining the nutritious drink, he desperately tried to force his head to work on the sugar content from canned coffee, keenly aware that he needed to search for a way to restore the Scepter 4 computer system that was still down.

The sigh he heaved was heavy and bitter.

'Agh, every fiber of my being wants to watch some anime. And play some games, tons of games.'

He was sick and tired of the staring contest with the monitor that only displayed rows of wrong numbers and of having to face a keyboard the keys of which became worn off by now.

'Lord, please grand me salvation! Bestow your grace upon me so that this deadlock we're in could be broken!'

Praying in the earnest, Enomoto opened the door to the data processing room and froze, for inside there sat the man who just might become his savior.

First thing to be mentioned was that in the back of the room, right on the desk, there slept Doumyouji, restlessly moaning in his sleep. On the same desk, there sat stacks of processed paperwork. And next to the aforementioned Doumyouji, eyes on his tablet, was Enomoto's savior, Fushimi Saruhiko, drinking canned coffee.

"Hm? It's you, Enomoto." Noticing Enomoto's presence, Fushimi lifted his head. His hand immediately resumed operating the tablet though. "Tell me frankly: are you an idiot? There's so many clues scattered all around in plain sight, see? I found them right away without even trying. Listen, we're gonna restart the Scepter 4 system now, so go get to your computer alre---" he started saying but faltered mid-sentence, startled and raising his head.

All because Enomoto walked up to him with brisk and determined steps and suddenly grabbed Fushimi's hand with both of his.

"Fushimi-san. Can I please hug you for the dear life?" he asked misty-eyed.

Fushimi recoiled in shock. "F-Fuck off, moron!" He shook off Enomoto's hands vehemently.

Enomoto couldn't hold it together anymore and started openly weeping.

"Fushimi-san, Fushimi-san," he kept repeating, "I'm really so, so happy you're back! People here have no foggiest about these things! I was all alone, and it was so terrible!"

Indeed, with the exception of Fushimi Saruhiko, among the rest, not even Munakata Reishi could quite be called expert in information processing and machinery-related matters. There was no doubt that the burden Enomoto, forced to deal with the system-wide trouble all by himself, carried was immense.

"..." For a while Fushimi just started at Enomoto in silence with an unreadable face. "Tch!" he clicked his tongue at last. "Anyway, I'll help you, so let's get to it already," Fushimi curly commanded, looking away.

To Enomoto though, those words were the best words of 'salvation' he'd ever heard.

"Yes, sir!" Enomoto responded, wiping his tears and beaming with smiles.

†

"Captain. I have one more question."

It was dawn when Benzai spoke up, addressing Munakata who was seated in the seat opposite of his.

Presently, Munakata, Benzai, Fuse and strain thief Tamada were in the middle of traveling the northernmost area of Honshu via a local line.

Originally, after landing at the Hokkaido airport, they planned to take a direct flight to return straight to the capital, but due to squall winds, all flights were cancelled, leaving the four with no choice other than to spend the night in a hotel in the city and then to head to their destination via an overland route that was considerably more time-costly.

The four stocked up on crab lunches, tea, tangerines and dried scallops and boarded a normal car like they were on a most ordinary trip, taking 4 seats opposite of one another.

Those who happened to be near them kept whispering about the group. 'What's that?' 'Cosplay?'

It was only understandable seeing as Tamada was the only one among them not wearing the Scepter 4 uniform. To draw an analogy, it was not much different from policemen deciding to board a normal civilian train in full uniform. In other words, they were sticking out like a sore thumb, and nothing could be done about it.

Fuse and Benzai did feel a little uncomfortable under all the gazes, but Munakata was dignified and confident as ever.

"Yes, what is it, Benzai-kun?" Hand stopped mid-motion, Munakata looked up from the tangerine he was peeling. Like that, with a handkerchief in his lap, he somehow had a homey feel about him.

"...Sir." Benzai was looking only at the tangerine. "After our last conversation, I've been thinking." "Ah, would you like some?" Having followed his subordinate's line of sight and probably misunderstanding, Munakata offered a segment of his peeled tangerine. Benzai shook his head with all due respect. "N-No, sir, I'm good, thank you, sir." "Really. It is quite delicious though?" Munakata said after chewing on the segment he deftly tossed into his mouth.

Benzai made effort to put on a small insincere smile, but his face became serious again almost immediately.

"Captain, you said that the actions of the strains like Tamada, scattered all across the country, have been processed and analyzed by a supercomputer."

Hearing his name, Tamada, who was enthusiastically wolfing down a crab lunch, stopped, looking from Benzai to Munakata in turns.

Munakata silently nodded. "Indeed, I said that." "And I'm satisfied with the explanation you provided concerning the analysis method. But, Captain, from what you said, it appears to me that the means for procuring the information that had become the base for such an analysis are still unknown." "What do you mean?" "Let's assume that pictures and footage, as well as location, of each culprit in question was obtained via hacking. The problem is, in my opinion, that alone is not enough to get a good grasp on their personality and on what makes them tick." "..." "So I was wondering, what exactly did the Kounomura faction do to obtain enough data to run such an analysis?"

Benzai's observation prompted Munakata to outline the report on the matter he received from Fushimi.

Benzai's eyes went wide. Fuse looked surprised as well.

"A strain that can read minds is involved?" "Yes, correct. Such an ability is very rare and very useful. I assume he did psychological profiling and collected data not only on Tamada-shi and the others like him, but on the Scepter 4 members as well." "Now I see." Benzai nodded, adding things up. "That explains a lot. Our psychological profiles, too, were analyzed by Kounomura, I take it. And via the Coin Toss theory that Kounomura applies, we, too, were made dance to Kounomura's tune. That's also the reason why we got split up and scattered as if in a scenario prepared in advance."

Munakata smiled. "Correct. That is the sleight of hand behind the 'magic' Kounomura-shi has worked on us." "Damn it!" Fuse punched the palm of his hand with the fist he balled his other into. "Why is he going that far?!"

"Only," Munakata suddenly interjected, "even that hypothesis leaves out a few things that I have yet to find an explanation for. That is why I think of it this way: there is a traitor in our ranks."

The easily and casually made statement was shockingly scandalous.

"Huh?" "Eh?"

Both Benzai and Fuse tensed and froze.

Munakata smiled and unhurriedly carried his tea to his lips. Glancing outside the window, he murmured in a perfectly carefree tone, "The clouds look quite menacing, wouldn't you say?"

A single droplet of water landed on the glass of the train's window.

†

It was no exaggeration to say that that person was entrusted with the most difficult mission. As it were, the mission was to infiltrate the enemy territory all by himself. It required smarts, guts and the ability to always stay calm and collected, no matter the situation. And the man in question lived up to that high standard.

Being a police career-track bureaucrat to begin with, by the second half of his twenties he rose through the ranks to become the chief of a small police station, cruising through life comfortably and problem-free. His superiors had a favorable impression of him, and his colleagues and subordinates put a strong faith in him, but a single vice was the ruin of him.

In his case, it wasn't alcohol or women.

It all went downhill thanks to his addiction to far too risky gambling.

Until having graduated from university, he had no connection to gambling to speak of; if anything, he found it rather disgusting. Since he chose to sit for the police force qualification exam, his sense of justice was on the strong side, and he actively wished to crack down on illegal gambling and related crimes.

But one day, his set of values that served as the foundation for his sense of ethics got turned upside down.

The reason for that was a change of heart of a woman he was going to exchange vows and share the future with. They were supposed to get married at the start of the New Year, but the woman did an about-face, declaring that she fell in love with another man, and unilaterally cancelled the engagement.

Due to the shocking heartbreak, he wound up drinking alcohol he wasn't used to drinking and found himself standing in front of a pachinko parlor before he even registered it.

He gave in to despair. But by some ironic twist of fate, that time he ended up scoring an unbelievably big win.

It sparked some really pleasant reaction in his brain. He almost heard how a forbidden door to never pass through slowly opened. The rest happened in the blink of an eye. At first, he got addicted to gambling on horse races and boat races, the amount he bet steadily went up, too, except soon, that alone stopped being enough to satisfy him and he got involved in illegal gambling.

Initially, he was able to hide his destructive habit successfully enough, but before long what was going on became evident along with skyrocketing sums poured into it. Before he knew it, those around him, including his superiors in the force, learned he was a compulsive gambler and, after many a warning and reprimand, he was forced to retire from the police 'at his own request'. In essence, it was a discharge.

In the end, no matter how much people around warned him and what they said to him, he couldn't stop gambling. Having burnt through all of his savings, he was rendered homeless without means of sustenance. But there appeared a man who stretched out a helping hand even to someone like him. It was Kounomura Zen'ichi, from the period when the short man was devoting all of his energy to charity work.

The former policeman was lucky enough to be admitted to a medical facility Kounomura established to cure dependence on alcohol, gambling and the like. Thanks to the rehabilitation program that a board of specialists put together, and the earnestness of Kounomura himself as their honored head, he was able to exercise a degree of control over his urge to gamble. The most important key to that turned out to be learning all about his personality traits and tendencies through exhaustive psychoanalysis.

He had learned he was a person with a so called preference for suffering. Putting it crudely, he was a masochist, the type of person who derived absurd amounts of pleasure from being put in situations that caused him pain and suffering.

He chose to accept it in a positive way, and afterwards, starting with arbitrating conflicts between gangster organizations, he became a certain country's agent affiliated with the government, undertaking dangerous jobs, such as tracking certain people down unofficially and smoking them out.

It was rather difficult to define his job in formal terms, but calling him a troubleshooter, a private eye or a handyman would not be too far from the truth.

To him, the more thrilling a job was, the more it was worth doing. He straightforwardly enjoyed doing risky things like infiltrating various places and gathering intelligence.

And then, he became a supernatural ability holder. It was like a sudden awakening.

That's when he heard those words.

'I see. So you now have one, too. In that case, there is something I want you to do for me, if that's okay with you?'

The one to make that request was Kounomura who the former policeman came to idolize after overcoming his gambling addiction. Two replies afer, he jumped at the request without a second thought.

Partly it was due to the request coming from Kounomura, his benefactor, and the rest of the reason was that the mission sounded particularly difficult and risky. To him, with his borderline abnormal preferences, such circumstances were nothing short of ideal. And so, putting his strain power to good use, he had infiltrated Scepter 4.

The mission requested of him could be divided into 2 big tasks.

The first task was to keep gathering data on Scepter 4.

And the second one was to obstruct Scepter 4's work whenever a chance presented itself.

The former policeman was doing this high difficulty job with flying colors.

He concentrated his intel-gathering efforts on the members of the special operations squad, infiltrated the deepest levels of the facility and when the opportunity presented itself, he inconspicuously employed videotaping. The fact that the information he sent was of use to Kounomura fired him up even more.

Though, when putting together a jamming program in the data processing room in the very heart of Scepter 4 or causing trouble in the generator room to put it out of order, even he felt antsy. Between the algorithms for each member of the special operations squad derived from the Coin Toss theory, Kounomura's detailed plans drawn up based on them, specially developed electronic devices and the ex-policeman's own high grade skills and experience, such feats were made possible.

Needless to say, some assumptions turned out wrong and there were a few small miscalculations here and there, but in general it was safe to say that the sheer military gain was big: the ex-policeman practically single-handedly plunged the HQ into chaos.

And it was precisely because he was so capable that he sensed that the tides were beginning to turn. The turning point was probably Fushimi Saruhiko's return.

Kounomura ordered his man to withdraw immediately if he ever found himself in danger of being exposed. But the former law enforcer, wanting to come back to Kounomura bearing some quality information pertaining to Munakata Reishi, decided to risk it one last time.

His affection for Kounomura threw a monkey wrench into his innately cautious and careful approach.

Through the intelligence network he'd been building, he learned about important documents kept in Munakata Reishi's office, so he chose the right timing and invaded the room. As he was opening one by one the drawers of Munakata's desk, it dawned on him: he had fallen into a trap.

"What the hell are you doing, Gotou?" a voice asked, its owner sounding both accusing and refusing to believe what he was seeing. The voice belonged to Hidaka who, as it turned out, entered the Captain's office unnoticed and was now standing by the door. Next to Hidaka, arms folded across his chest, there stood Fushimi Saruhiko and watched him with ice-cold eyes.

Intelligent as the ex-policeman was, he instantly grasped what was going on. There hardly could be any doubt that the one behind spreading the rumor about crucial information being in the Captain's office to lure out the invader was Fushimi Saruhiko.

Still, the invader tried his luck and replied as Gotou Ren, "Hm? What do you mean?" "Tch!" Immediately, Fushimi clicked his tongue. "Your trick's out in the open already, fucker. We know that you're a strain with a perception manipulation ability, and that you were impersonating Gotou this whole time!"

And with that barked accusation, he steeled himself. Still, his mind demanded he grope for some way out of his desperate situation, so he rushed at the two. At the same time, putting his fingers to his lips, he blew with all of his might, producing a whistle which served as the trigger to activating his perception manipulation ability. Together with the high-pitched sound, “Gotou Ren” shapeshifted into somebody else.

"Ugh!" Hidaka faltered in a big way, for right now the invader had taken the shape of none other than Hidaka and Fushimi's unquestioned boss, Munakata Reishi.

Incidentally, during Awashima Seri's capture, the former law enforcer worked together with Kounomura, too, and employed the exact same trick. When Awashima's eyes registered Munakata's form, she instinctively stayed the hand that was swinging her saber, flabbergasted.

"You two, out of my way!" His voice sounded like a perfect copy, he was sure. Even Fushimi appeared to be stiffening with shock, not to mention the completely frozen Hidaka.

'Alright!' Believing his escape route clear, he tried to slip between Hidaka and Fushimi, and when he did, another miscalculation on his part became evident.

Fushimi didn't stiffen with shock. He tensed summoning his muscle strength.

What he did looked similar to the art of sword drawing. At a fearsome speed, he released the power gathered in his muscles throughout his body and, making the length of his arm from the shoulder to the elbow the pivot point, he swiveled his right arm. In his fist, the handle of his saber was gripped. He smashed it into the face of the running invader, like a quickly executed counterattack.

"Gbwhah!"

The ex-policeman did what looked like almost a half turn in the air before crashing hard into the floor. For a second, consciousness fled him.

"F-Fushimi-saaan!" Hidaka let out a small drawn out whine. "Moooron," Fushimi snorted. "It's not like he's real," he added, spitting the words out. "Look and see for yourself, his perception manipulation ability is coming undone."

As the ex-policeman's consciousness grew hazy, the last words he heard before blacking out were Hidaka's, "Huh? Is it me or does the face this guy's making look awfully content?"

It really just felt so good to get his butt kicked so thoroughly.

†

From a certain point on, Akiyama Himori, detained on molestation charges, stopped letting upset and agitation show on his features altogether. Every morning, he would do his personal maintenance, and then, during the long hours of questioning, he would always stay unfailingly polite and well-mannered. That dignified attitude and demeanor, even assuming it was only a tough facade, impressed even the detective who was in charge of Akiyama.

"You're really something," said middle-aged detective murmured absentmindedly and then immediately coughed, hastening to cover it up, as if ashamed of bringing his personal feelings into the investigation.

Akiyama's only reply was a smile. In that smile, there was no resentment, or anger, or excuses, or pleas - it was free of anything. All Akiyama did was calmly deny the charges against him.

He must have steeled himself.

No. He must have found faith.

Of course, Akiyama went through his fair share of conflict before reaching that state of mind. He felt furious at being arrested on such absurd charges, and embarrassed for his honor to be smeared like that. He also worried about the implications for his organization at his being detained by the police for the whole of the legally permitted detention period. He even considered the possibility of his arrest being a type of harassment by the police against Scepter 4 that they didn't have a favorable opinion of.

But at the end of the day, Akiyama chose to believe: sooner or later, his innocence would be made clear, without fail; so long as justice lay with him, light would eventually shine on his circumstances, just like clouds hiding the sun would eventually be gone along with the passage of time.

For truth's sake it should be noted that were Akiyama alone in this fight, perhaps, he wouldn't be quite so sure about it. But he wasn't alone: he had trusty comrades in Scepter 4, starting with Benzai. And what's more, his king, Munakata Reishi, would surely take the most appropriate measures for his sake. That, he could be adamantly sure of.

Maybe his faith was a little too blind. But that was the kind of man Akiyama Himori was, and he accepted himself that way and considered it a good thing. That's why he concluded that what he had to do was to simply wait, calmly and patiently. That was all there was to it.

And...

The moment he was waiting for had suddenly come.

The door to the room he was held in opened, and the detective in charge informed him, "Hey, you can come out. The charges against you have been dropped." "Is that so," Akiyama intoned and quickly started to gather his things. "What, ain't you gonna ask why?" hearing his disinterested response, the detective in charge questioned in wonder.

Akiyama shook his head.

He knew precisely why: Munakata Reishi and Akiyama's squadmates collaborated with the attorney and worked something out. That's why Akiyama simply said, "I expect I will hear the details from my superior."

He was already thinking about what would need to be done once he returned to his duties. He strongly suspected that Scepter 4's situation at the moment was difficult.

For that reason, it was imperative he return as soon as possible and start filling the hole left by his absence. In the first place, his own ineptitude was to blame for his winding up in such a situation.

If one were to search for the most fitting descriptors for the members of Scepter 4, it could be said that, for example, Zenjou Gouki was best described as a warrior, Doumyouji as a free spirit, and when it came to Akiyama, the most fitting description would be a man with makings of a natural-born soldier. A professional who was naturally disciplined and utterly devoted to his task.

But still, when Akiyama exited the police station and saw his partner there, back propped against a pillar and one hand raised in a silent greeting, he couldn't help breaking into a smile. Benzai Yuujirou walked up to him with unhurried steps, and Akiyama bowed his head slightly but sincerely.

"...Sorry to have caused you so much trouble."

He knew even without anyone telling him just how tough Benzai had it having to cover up for Akiyama by doing his partner's share of work in addition to his own.

Benzai wasn't too verbose.

"Don't worry about it," was all he said, shrugging his shoulders a little. Clapping Akiyama a couple of times on the chest to let him know that he considered this conversation over, he headed over to the parked car.

His attitude was calm and collected, as always, even as light drizzle was sprinkling from above.

"Heh."  Akiyama smiled and followed him.

For the two of them, that was enough.

#k project #project k #k case files of blue #k translation

[lucashawro]

Marketing Automation

I have yet to meet a business owner who has never been in need of automation. Today startups, SMBs and large companies have one thing in common - they're all thrown in the game of pursuing the holy grail of business and marketing automation (The Automation Singularity).

As you’re reading this, I wouldn't be surprised if you've got your feet wet trying a marketing automation software at some point. MailChimp for example or even chatbots...?

  Marketing Automation

But maybe you have been doing all your marketing the "old school" way, and you want to get some of the piling work volumes off your shoulders, and you don't want to hire, train, pay and manage additional employee(s). Well, I share your viewpoint, because running a business means innovation. So, you either work on out-innovating your competition or your practices get inefficient and your business becomes outdated pretty quickly.

I will try my best in this article to help you get started with choosing the lowest hanging fruit of marketing autopilot platforms. You should finish the piece having a grasp on what is marketing automation, why marketing automation is the next big thing in coming years, and how to use the power of automation platforms and tools to their fullest potential.

Remember, you can't turn your eyes away and pretend the business innovations don't affect you. I will argue here that 2018/19 is a perfect time to jump on board and benefit from at least some of the cheap and accessible business automation out there. As you read on pick one or two solutions and over the next few weeks try to integrate them for the betterment of your business and your life.

Why do businesses need marketing automation?

The traditional marketing as a scientific field goes back to early 1900s or even earlier with the development of modern capitalism and consumerism. In a nutshell, business owners and (modern) marketers discovered that by studying consumer behaviour they can predict and influence sales profits. Businesses then went on developing step-by-step processes to anticipate the needs and wants of potential consumers so they could satisfy them more effectively in comparison to its competitors. Several decades later we use complex data and scientific methods to measure and design specific procedures to sell more to more people.

Marketing and sales funnels evolved and it's no longer just printed ads in papers and magazines or lump mail ads. With the technological revolution, especially the Internet and social media's worldwide blitz, we've opened several channels enabling us to communicate more effectively and build relevant relationships with our customers. What it means for marketers like you is that a need for a more sophisticated and technologically enhanced approach with complex, multivariate sales funnels is required. Hence, marketing automation.

  Marketing Automation Sales Funnels

What Marketing Automation meant up until 2018

"Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower." - Steve Jobs

Despite the overblown claims and inflated marketing slogans, marketing automation is NOT an artificial intelligence (AI). The real AI doesn't exist (yet) and we're likely far away from it. Some moderate that and use "semi-AI" but it's misleading because the "semi-" isn't clearly defined and means anything. I just call it for what it is for now. Marketing automation is a set of logical rules, processes and tactics that run on autopilot, making some tasks or even segments of your business autonomous and independent from human input. Besides the obvious profits like time, money and energy saving, such marketing practices bring a real and quantifiable added value to your business.

Although the philosophy of business management and marketing orientation remains intact and pretty solid, the tools and methodology seem to evolve and set new milestones almost every week.

Today, marketing automation software has never been more accessible. And in such high demand. Entrepreneurs keep coming up with creative ideas and cutting-edge technology to help businesses design their perfect strategies to predict the needs and personalise the copywriting.

So new marketing software is springing up like mushrooms.

But let's step back to something basic, like MailChimp which is an email auto-responding system. Their automated software is free (to the extent) and allows for:

Easy integration on your website so you can quickly start building your email list

Getting your prospects details in an engaging form (MailChimp Lead Magnet)

Designing an auto-responder with a drag-and-drop visual builder

... and Sending automated and targeted emails to your recipient's list

----------------------・・・----------------------

Here're a few triggers you can use:

Email your tagged contacts - Send a targeted message when you add a tag to a contact.

Welcome new subscribers - Introduce yourself to people when they sign up for your list.

Say 'happy birthday' - Celebrate with an exclusive offer or cheerful message that will be sent out based on the birthday field in your list.

Share blog updates - Help contacts keep up with your blog by sending new posts straight to their inboxes.

Now you can essentially build "set and forget" email sequences.

(did I mention it's free? ;)

----------------------・・・----------------------

Check this video on how to set one up with this step-by-step tutorial:

----------------------・・・----------------------

The top 5 essential gains of automation

To summarise, here are the top 5 essential gains of automation in the area specific to marketing:

Automated marketing tools build complex customer journeys and sales funnels (e.g. MailChimp)

Marketing artificial intelligence software learns your customers' behaviour or who they are and tries to make your product and services highly personalised (e.g. UNLESS)

Marketing bots aim to leave your customer informed, happy and engaged (e.g. Quriobot)

Marketing analytics enables you to quickly test and change the direction of your marketing strategy (e.g. CustomerLabs)

Automated sales software makes your marketing efforts more efficient, faster to adapt and scale (e.g. DataGran)

What Automation means for the future of business

"In peace prepare for war, in war prepare for peace." - Sun Tzu.

The future of automation in 2019 and beyond looks bright. And it isn't just Tesla and their self-driving autonomous cars. Interestingly enough, I find those same principles that drive Musk and his robo-vehicles towards automation apply to any aspect of the business. Here's what we all are after:

multiplied productivity (ROI)

exponential growth

multitasking (that actually works)

large data processing power

and, yes - if used correctly, a much better life

----------------------・・・----------------------

See Marquees driving Yandex self-driving car around California

----------------------・・・----------------------

Sales and marketing automation software - who's on the frontend?

Let's bring it down to a business application and see what benefits businesses can expect from automated systems in 2019 moving forward.

The most common use of marketing automation software appears to be in sales, but this limited utility expands very quickly.

eMarketer reports that only 5% of companies have never benefited from marketing automation (I couldn't dig their source though, so take it with a grain of salt). But that makes sense, given the power of computing and how technology penetrated the entire world of economy. It is clear that customer journey maps are extensively used by Googles, Amazons and eBays of this world to accurately map out how customer behave in relation to businesses. And the same applies to Social Media giants like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. Their optimisation is so granular, and it developed so fast, that <a some people stood to consider its ethics and what we want as a civilisation.

Nevertheless, the value in sales is so obvious and tempting that it only makes sense to continue using it. Providing your primary incentive is to quickly "help" your prospects who are travelling the distance from being a bystander to a raving fan. And the distance, no matter the length, is measurable and categorisable. Therefore, prone to endless optimisations (and exploitation).

Is marketing automation software difficult to access?

As of today, experts agree that by learning different ways how customers interact with businesses, pretty much guarantees big profits. For this reason, social scientist and marketers flock to use all sorts of automation tools that help with just that. Meanwhile, Marketing SaaS companies try to meet their prospects midway offering easy to understand but potentially vastly scalable in its application software. In fact, lowering entry level is now the name of the game with most marketing automation software.

One such software is FullStory. The software works based on simple principles but the results, which it draws through different modes of user interpretation, provide comprehensive and quite elaborate customer journey maps.

"See your site through your users' eyes. More than the sum of its clicks, FullStory replays your customer's journey – like a DVR for your website – so you can search, see, and understand your user experience."

There is certainly a learning curve associated with implementing any new system or technology. However, with much lowered entry-level bars the fruit has never hung so low.

Large Data Set Calculations - how to optimise your website running costs and business spending for free?

  Data analysis in marketing automation

Back in the days, gathering and calculating any large data sets was done by businesses who could afford full-time data analyst and a "numbers person". So it was reserved usually for enterprise-level companies and agencies, or outsourced and never looked at closely again. Today, with tools like Google Analytics, you have quick and easy access to software that with a click of a button displays almost complete picture of your company's money flow.

It's free and offers a tremendous amount of actionable data that is automatically gathered and calculated from your website, ads and email campaigns, to mention just a few sources.

It's also worth mentioning that Facebook, Pinterest or LinkedIn Ads platforms use sophisticated dashboards where data is calculated and presented to you in any way you want. It takes time to figure it all out, though. I'd suggest to start with finding answers to simple questions like:

What is my website's monthly traffic?

Which of my ads increased traffic the most?

How long an average visitor spends on my homepage?

Is my traffic local or international?

Using what device (mobile/tablet/desktop) people are visiting my website?

Which of my web pages are most popular?

Where is my traffic coming from?

The Rise of The Marketing Bots

One of the most significant aspects of marketing automation is the sudden spread of bots and various auto-messengers. Apart from built-in Facebook Messenger Bots, platforms like Quriobot and MobileMonkey are rapidly developing and are more and more sophisticated in methods of visitor engagement on your website. The key to a great visitors engagement appears to be:

the speed of response

24/7 availability

useful and relevant bot responses based on the keyword and intelligent intent recognition

and so-called "triggers"

Speaking of "triggers". These can be heavily customised to adhere to the customers' behaviour on your site and provide visual and heavily targeted responses. For example, imagine you have someone checking on your "Home Page" then going to "Pricing" where they spend two minutes and decide to leave. Normally this particular visitor could be classified as a prospective customer, that you may want to engage further. Therefore, at each individual stage, your bot can enhance your visitors' experience by way of targeted messages, additional content and offers. Even at the point of departure, a bot can be configured to throw an "exit intent" trigger and, hopefully, stop the visitor from leaving the website.

  AI bots - chat automation

The "AI" in bots gets also increasingly sophisticated. For example, tools like ActiveChat try to mimic human-like responses and with it infinite visual building blocks you can make it up as complicated as Lego's Star Wars Millennium Falcon set. It can also integrate with e-commerce systems so you can have an actual "digital counter" right on your website.

No wonder bots are the next big thing and we will hear about them more and more.

"I think that's the single best piece of advice: constantly think about how you could be doing things better, and questioning yourself." - Elon Musk

Conclusion

It may be hard to start learning all these platforms today. However, in the long run, it will pay back immensely. Also, know that 99% of your competitors aren't doing it.

So, it’s better to start giving marketing automation some attention before it is too late. Whatever industry you're in, it will be driven by the same principles as any other, whoever puts in the hours to innovate will increase the odds of success over the business owners that procrastinated and neglected to do the homework.

You may not have enough resources to go all in with learning the marketing tools, but there is no harm in trying. I have probably been guilty of procrastination more than anyone in the business. But eventually I have learned to take little steps from early on, and over time I realised that I made a quantum leap in growing my business and developing myself. So, if you are reading this article right at this moment, stop wasting your time and jump right in.

These are obviously just a few tips and the ocean of automated tools is filling in with more and more fish. There are few more things that I have learned over the years, so pop back in and check this article for updates. But most importantly start with making your first marketing automation funnel, no matter how big your goals are. From my experience, the right actions will pay off. I wish you good luck with your marketing automation journey.

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This article was originally posted on: Colorpeak.co.uk

[vigrxwarning]

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[trevorxyit658-blog]

List of Penny Shares to Watch From Biotech and Mining Best Penny Stocks to Invest in

What is your story during your trade-in penny Stocks With politeness there is serious trouble or even zero that makes you fall. Upgrade your list of penny stocks to watch and invest regularly. You should do it every day in the morning because it is the right time to do. Use the leading strategy to get the most efficient one and win the Trading In this free list of penny stocks to watch now, you also get additional information. What is it? It is more than the definition of penny stock.

List of Penny Stocks to Watch From Biotech and Mining

Penny stock is appropriate for Short-term investment where the merchants can save it unless 3 years. This keep up does not suitable for Long-term investment because it fluctuates and harmful so much. Nonetheless many people like to play this maintaining because it does not need a lot of money. Speaking on the list of penny stocks to watch, these pages be glad about you two kinds of Stocks Two of them comes from the healthcare sector and an extra is mining. For more information, let’s watch the companies:

TherapeuticsMD (TXMD) As the opening, there is a biotech list of penny stocks to watch namely TherapeuticsMD. In the inventory chart, TXMD has climbed up significantly. TXMD successes to climb a highly positive Q2 2019 financial Document By the way, TherapeuticsMD is medicine manufactures that move, mainly for women's healthcare. One of its product specifically Imvexxy for menopause has boosted TXMD inventory by the sales.

AGENUS (AGEN) Agenus includes healthcare or biotech company that alternate in Stock Chart. This venture had publicizes its Q2 2019 financial effects and managed to beat expectations. The company has given the estimation with a loss per share of $0.33. Happily Agenus succeeded to manage and generate sales of $15.72 million for the quarter. AGEN blows the consensus estimates out as much as 192.92%. So, many buyers get a lot of optimism. Then, the inventory has extreme temperature up to 19%.

DRP Gold At this time, the mining sector contains DRP Gold. Since June, DRP Gold mining had high temperature up to 130%. Comprise one of the lists of penny inventory to watch is still gaining where DRP Gold stock rose by 10%.

Asanko Gold Company https://www.pennymatrix.com Asanko Gold closes the information with a result on a roll since around the middle of June. However the gaining of the stocks is still far as much as 100 %.

List of Penny Shares to Watch in $6 or less, Next there are other 5 names adding the list of penny shares to watch today. Differ from prior names, it claims as cheap inventory price of $6 or less. It consists of:

Zynga (ZNGA)ZNGA appears with the inventory price of $5.55 and YTD at 6%. Zynga is the company running in the mobile gaming sector. The venture which trades in NASDAQ found the key to success in the mobile gaming world.

Pier 1 (PIR) Pier deals its stock price of $3.36 with the year-to-date of -45%. It is a furniture retailer company which trades in NYSE with the code of PIR. It turns out the stock of PIR has collapsed over the giant year where it is not the problems Again Even, PIR’s inventory has lost more than 90% of its value over the tremendous five years.

Arotech (ARTX) of Defense Company ARTX is the US defense company that appears with the inventory price of $2.24 and the Year-to-date of –15.4%. Arotech company that trades in NASDAQ use ARTX as its code. For your information, the financials at Arotech have not received any floor before the last beyond five years. Although it was an old story. The revenue were $103.5 million and the amount net profit was for about $3.5 million. Even during 2017, the revenue of ARTX were $98.7 million and gets the net profit was $3.8 million

Groupon (GRPN) A list of penny stock to watch of GRPN provides its price of $2.32. Meanwhile, YTD or year-to-date is -28%. It turns out the company that nearly similar to Pier 1 trade-in NASDAQ. GRPN savings and deals the accommodation and market so it is not a loved ones name for coupons.

Blink Charging (BLNK) The last list of penny shares to watch is BLNK. Blink Charging gives the inventory price on $2.60 and the YTD reaches 100% when coming to cheap Stocks Even though there are few as unstable as Blink Charging and it trades in NASDAQ inventory exchange.

Well, there is a little bit information besides the new penny stock list above. It is about the leading and tips that you can use to Trade You can use some simple online tools such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Technical Analysis (TA). On the other Hands the buyers can comply with 3 tips to exchange in the form of:

Trade-in limit orders Depending on the market order, you better use the limit orders to exchange penny Stocks The reason is utilizing the limit orders can get the result in the price changing because of your Trade Your purchasing might cause the stocks to briefly and artificially Raise then drop back down immediately.

At all times pay attention of confirmation bias Pay attention of affirmation bias if you choose penny Stocks The tendency to interpret information that conforms to your preexisting beliefs.

Try the stop-loss orders Stop-loss orders can be one of the great tricks to invest in the penny Shares

The ways are with selling the losing positions at the early. After that, you can let the gains run the trading result.

Ok those are some information on the list of penny inventory to watch, buy, and Alternate You can see and buy one of them directly. In addition to picking out the company, you can use the major and tips to support your way to select the company. So, what you have got today is very complete. It implies you can start to move to chase penny Stock Be careful and good luck perpetually because its high risk is real.

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[bluewatsons]

Nicholas Scurich & Adam Shniderman, The Selective Allure of Neuroscientific Explanations, 9 PLoS One e107529 (2014)

Abstract

Some claim that recent advances in neuroscience will revolutionize the way we think about human nature and legal culpability. Empirical support for this proposition is mixed. Two highly-cited empirical studies found that irrelevant neuroscientific explanations and neuroimages were highly persuasive to laypersons. However, attempts to replicate these effects have largely been unsuccessful. Two separate experiments tested the hypothesis that neuroscience is susceptible to motivated reasoning, which refers to the tendency to selectively credit or discredit information in a manner that reinforces preexisting beliefs. Participants read a newspaper article about a cutting-edge neuroscience study. Consistent with the hypothesis, participants deemed the hypothetical study sound and the neuroscience persuasive when the outcome of the study was congruent with their prior beliefs, but gave the identical study and neuroscience negative evaluations when it frustrated their beliefs. Neuroscience, it appears, is subject to the same sort of cognitive dynamics as other types of scientific evidence. These findings qualify claims that neuroscience will play a qualitatively different role in the way in which it shapes people’s beliefs and informs issues of social policy.

Introduction

Some claim that neuroscience will revolutionize the way we think about fundamental human nature. An editorial published in The Economist exemplifies this sentiment: “Genetics may yet threaten privacy, kill autonomy, make society homogeneous and gut the concept of human nature. But neuroscience could do all of these things first (p. 837).” [1] Such enthusiasm is not restricted to the mainstream media. Indeed, many academics have been enthralled by the transformative potential of neuroscience, and, as a result, neuroscience is now being used to study ‘old problems’ in a variety of disciplines, including philosophy [2], economics [3], marketing [4], management [5], and finance [6].

Legal scholarship is perhaps the most prominent area impacted by neuroscience. In a highly-influential article, neuroscholars Greene and Cohen [7] suggested that neuroscience will radically alter society’s moral intuitions about free will and responsibility, necessitating a change in the way criminal law deals with culpability and punishment. The result of this provocative article has been an influx of commentary about what implications neuroscience has for the law and the criminal justice system more broadly. In 2009 alone, there were more 200 law review articles that discussed neuroscience [8]. Neuroscience has also been credited by some with playing an influential role in a recent trilogy of juvenile justice cases heard before the United States Supreme Court [9].

A number of empirical studies have examined the influence of neuroscience on judgments and decisions. In the seminal article, The Seductive Allure of Neuroscience Explanations [10], researchers provided naïve adults, students in a neuroscience class, and neuroscience experts with sound or unsound explanations of psychological phenomenon that were either accompanied with a neuroscience explanation or not. While all participants were able to differentiate between the sound and unsound explanations when neuroscience was absent, non-experts found both explanations equally believable and satisfying when neuroscience was present. However, experts correctly detected that the neuroscience was irrelevant. Thus, the results appeared to support the contention that laypeople are bamboozled by neuroscience. Notably, since its publication, the article has been cited over four hundred times.

A second article, Seeing is Believing: The Effect of Brain Images on Judgments of Scientific Reasoning[11], extended this line of inquiry by providing participants with neuroscience data accompanied by images of the brain. In this study, university undergraduates read summaries of cognitive neuroscience research, which was accompanied by either a bar graph depicting the results, a brain image depicting areas of activation, or nothing. While the bar graph and control conditions did not differ, the addition of the brain image significantly increased judgments of scientific credibility. Across three separate studies, the authors noted, “that there is, indeed, something special about the brain images with respect to influencing judgments of scientific credibility (p. 350)”, and they speculated “that brain images are influential because they provide a physical basis for abstract cognitive phenomenon (p. 343).”

These two studies were the impetus for a cottage industry of research testing the effects of neuroscience explanations and images in a variety of contexts, most conspicuously the legal context. These studies have yielded mixed results that appear to depend on the specific purpose for which the neuroscience is proffered [12]–[17]. More pointedly, attempts to replicate and extend the original Seductive Allure and Seeing is Believing findings have been mixed or unsuccessful [18]–[20].

The Present Study

Virtually all of the prior empirical research examining the impact of neuroscience has been atheoretical. In contrast, we hypothesize that neuroscience is subject to a cognitive dynamic known as motivated reasoning[21]. Motivated reasoning refers to the unconscious tendency to assimilate information in a manner biased towards reaching a particular outcome. This dynamic is more than simply making self-serving attributions; it unknowingly affects the way in which information is processed. Information that is congenial to a preferred outcome gets credited while information that does not facilitate the preferred outcome gets ignored or discredited. This process leads individuals to reach the desired outcome and it enables them to believe that their assessment is objective and rational [21], [22].

Empirical support for this phenomenon is voluminous [23]. In a classic study from the 1950s, students from two different Ivy League schools were asked to evaluate controversial calls made by an official during a football game; the students evaluated the legitimacy of the calls in a manner that was favorable to their institution, despite claims that their evaluations were neutral and impartial [24]. In another classic study, Lord, Ross, and Lepper [25] randomly assigned students to read about a fictional study that either did or did not find a deterrent effect of capital punishment. The content of the study was held constant, while the outcome of the study was manipulated. Students accepted the study at face value and deemed the methodology sound when the outcome of the study was consistent with their prior beliefs about the death penalty, yet they heavily scrutinized the study when it was inconsistent with their prior beliefs. Koehler [26] replicated this effect with scientists evaluating the quality of scientific issues, and the phenomenon has been replicated in numerous domains including medical testing [27], juror decision making [28], gambling [29], anthropogenic climate change [30], and even scientific peer review [31].

Based on this research, we predict that, rather than a universal seductive allure, neuroscience will have a ‘selective’ allure depending on how it corresponds to one’s predisposition about the issue for which it is proffered. Specifically, neuroscience will be appealing when it supports one’s predisposition but not convincing when it is incongruent with one’s predisposition. Such a finding would qualify claims that, in the eyes of the public, neuroscience will be able to definitively settle fundamental questions about human nature [32]. It would also replicate the phenomenon of motivated reasoning in a new domain.

Study 1. Neuroscience and the Death Penalty

Method

The University of California–Irvine Institutional Review Board (UCI IRB) approved the methodology described below (HS #2012–9060). Participants provided written consent by clicking on a button, which recorded the participant’s consent. The UCI IRB approved this procedure.

Participants

Participants were recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk [33], which provides an online forum to access individuals interested in completing tasks for a nominal fee. Common tasks posted on the forum include surveys, questionnaires, and market research questions about products and websites. Our task required participants to be at least 18 years old and a citizen of the United States, and they were paid $1.00 for their participation.

A statistical power analysis assuming a medium effect size with a type-1 error rate of .05 and 80% power requires a sample size of 128. Because we were unsure how the sample would split with respect to their view on the death penalty, we collected responses from 170 participants. As described below, 19 participants were removed from the analyses and one participant withdrew halfway through the study. This yielded a final sample of 150 United States citizens of which 48% (n = 72) was female. Age of participants ranged from 18 to 62 with a median of 30 and interquartile range of 11. Forty-four percent (n = 67) of participants self-identified as a Democrat, 10% (n = 15) as a Republican, and 31% (n = 46) as an Independent, 8% (n = 8) as “other” and 9% (n = 14) as “none.”

Procedure

The study began by asking participants a series of demographic questions and questions about social issues, such as the use of the death penalty for convicted murders, the legal propriety of abortion, and the vaccination of school-aged girls for the Human Papillomavirus, all of which were rated on a 5-point likert scale ranging from strongly oppose to strongly support. The order of the questions was randomized. Participants were then informed that they would be presented with a newspaper article and asked for their thoughts on the article. The newspaper article was formatted to emulate a traditional in-print article.

The newspaper article described the results of a fictitious experiment in which violent offenders were randomly assigned to one of two possible conditions. In the experimental condition, the offenders watched a video of an inmate being executed by lethal injection. In the control condition, the offenders watched a video of an inmate being held in solitary confinement. After watching the video both groups of offenders had their brain scanned using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). The outcome of the fMRI scan was experimentally manipulated. Participants were either told that a) the fMRI detected significant differences in the amount of activation in the prefrontal cortex between the two conditions, or b) that the fMRI detected no differences in activation between the groups. The lead author of the hypothetical study–a researcher at a prestigious university–explained that the prefrontal cortex is related to impulsivity and aggressiveness. He then opined that the results of the study either support the notion that the death penalty is or is not an effective deterrent to crime. Thus, participants in the present experiment were randomly assigned to one of two possible conditions: neuroscience indicates the death penalty is a deterrent (hereinafter “is a deterrent”) or neuroscience does not indicate that it is a deterrent (hereinafter “not a deterrent”).

Following the newspaper article, participants were presented with two reading comprehension questions. The first asked about the subject of the article (i.e., the death penalty) and the second asked about the type of science that was described in the article (i.e., neuroscience). Participants who failed to correctly answer these questions (n = 19) were eliminated from the analyses reported herein [34]. Participants were then asked 10 questions about the validity of the study reported in the newspaper article (e.g., “How scientific was the study described in the article?” “How likely are the results reproducible in future studies?” “How persuasive was the neuroscience reported in the study?”) and about neuroscience in general (“Is neuroscience is limited like other forms of social science?” “Is neuroscience science relevant to social policy?”). All ratings were made on a 7-point likert scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree and some were reverse scored. The order of the questions was randomized.

Results

A reliability analysis conducted on the 10 response questions to the newspaper article yielded a Cronbach’s alpha = .891. The 10 items were collapsed into a composite score, referred to as “neuroscience quality,” and the composite score was then transformed into a z-score. As measured at the pre-test stage of the study, 37% (n = 56) of participants oppose the death penalty, 17% (n = 25) were neutral about the death penalty, and 46% (n = 69) support the death penalty. Neutral participants were omitted in the following analyses.

A 2-way ANOVA with ‘result of study’ (is a deterrent or is not a deterrent) and pre-test ‘death penalty attitude’ (oppose or support) as the independent variables and neuroscience quality as the dependent variable detected a significant interaction F(1, 125) = 8.02, p = .005, ηp2 = .062. The main effect for death penalty attitude was not significant (F(1, 125)<1) nor was the main effect for result of study (F(1, 125) = 3.0, p = .086, ηp2 = .024). These findings are displayed graphically in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Perceptions of the quality of neuroscience as a function of the outcome of the study and participants’ a priori attitudes towards the death penalty. Note that error bars are +/−1 S.E.

As is apparent in figure 1, participants who oppose the death penalty (the black line) gave much higher ratings to the neuroscience when the study purported to find that the death penalty is not a deterrent to crime than when the study purported to find a deterrent effect. The opposite pattern emerged for participants who support the use of the death penalty (the grey line). They rated the quality of the neuroscience high when the purported to find a deterrent effect and low when it did not find a deterrent effect.

Note that conducting a median split to parse participants based on their pre-test attitudes towards the death penalty – as opposed to omitting the neutral participants – does not materially affect the results: A 2-way ANOVA detected a significant interaction (F(1, 150) = 7.35, p = .008, ηp2 = .048). The main effects for death penalty attitude and result of study were not significant (F(1, 150)<1 and F(1, 150) = 2.48, p = .12, ηp2 = .017, respectively).

Discussion

The findings from study 1 are consistent with the selective allure hypothesis. Participants credited the neuroscience and gave it favorable ratings when it supported their attitude towards the death penalty, and they denigrated the science when it conflicted with their attitude towards the death penalty. These findings suggest that neuroscience is not unlike other forms of science in the way in which it is consumed by the lay public. In the same way that people selectively scrutinize social science and physical science, people also selectively scrutinize neuroscience. Indeed, the study replicates the findings of Lord, Ross, & Lepper [25]but with the use of neuroscience instead of conventional social science. Thus, claims that neuroscience is categorically different than previous forms of research, perhaps because of its unique ability to pinpoint specific regions of the brain that are responsible for behavior [35], are not supported by the current study.

Study 2. Neuroscience and Abortion

The previous study looked at the perception of neuroscience as it pertains to one particular social issue. It is possible that the death penalty is unlike myriad other social issues. Thus, a second study was conducted to test whether the phenomenon would replicate across different social issues with a different sample of participants. The methods of the second study were nearly identical except for the content of the newspaper articles.

Method

Participants

Participants were again recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk. They were required to be at least 18 years old and a citizen of the United States, and were paid $1.00 for their participation. A software setting precluded study 1 participants from engaging in this study. As described below, 14 participants were removed from the analyses for failing one of the comprehension check questions, which yielded a sample of 149 participants, of which 47% (n = 70) was female. Age of participants ranged from 19 to 68 with a median of 32 (IQR = 18). Forty-five percent (n = 68) of participants self-identified as Democrats, 11% (n = 16) as Republicans, and 32% (n = 47) as Independents, 3% (n = 5) as “other,” 8% (n = 12) as “none,” and one person identified as a Tea Party member.

Procedure

Consistent with the previous study, participants were initially asked a series of demographic questions and questions about social issues, all of which were presented in random order. Participants were then informed that they would be presented with a newspaper article and asked for their thoughts on the article.

The newspaper article began by explaining that, although abortion is a divisive political issue, most agree that abortion should be legally prohibited if the fetus experiences pain during the procedure. The article then described a study in which fetuses experienced an ultrasonic sound while being scanned by an fMRI. This sound is known to arouse slight discomfort and pain in babies less than one year of age. The lead researcher explained that activation in the parietal lobe indicates the sensation of pain, and thus fMRI can answer the question of whether fetuses experience pain by whether activation is detected.

The outcome of the study was experimentally manipulated. In one condition (referred to as “pain”), the researchers found that second and third trimester fetuses displayed activation in the parietal lobe, and are thus capable of feeling pain. A fictional figure in the pro-life movement then opined that the study suggests that second trimester abortions should not be legally permitted because the fetus feels pain. In the other condition (“no pain”), the fMRI scan revealed no activation in the parietal lobe of second trimester fetuses. A fictional figure in the pro-choice movement then opined that the study suggests that second trimester abortions should be legally permitted because the fetus does not feel pain.

Following the newspaper article, participants were presented with two reading comprehension questions. The first asked about the subject of the article (i.e., abortion) and the second asked about the type of science that was described in the article (i.e., neuroscience). Participants who failed to correctly answer these questions (n = 14) were eliminated from the analyses reported herein [34]. Participants were then asked 10 questions in random order about the validity of the study reported in the newspaper article and about neuroscience in general. All ratings were made on a 7-point likert scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree and some were reverse scored.

Results

A reliability analysis conducted on the 10 response questions yielded a Cronbach’s alpha = .874. Removing any item would not significantly increase alpha. The 10 items were collapsed into a composite score, hereinafter referred to as “neuroscience quality,” which was transformed into a z-score. As measured at the pre-test stage of the study, 27.5% (n = 41) of participants oppose abortion, 14% (n = 21) were neutral, and 58.5% (n = 87) support abortion. Neutral participants were removed from the following analyses.

A 2-way ANOVA with ‘outcome of study’ (fetus feels pain or fetus does not feel pain) and pre-test ‘abortion attitude’ (oppose or support) as the independent variables and neuroscience quality as the dependent variable only detected a significant interaction F(1, 128) = 17.73, p<.001, ηp2 = .125. The main effect for death penalty attitude was not significant (F(1, 128)<1) nor was the main effect for result of study (F(1, 128) = 1.19, p = .28). These findings are displayed graphically in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Perceptions of the quality of neuroscience as a function of the outcome of the study and participants’ a priori attitudes towards abortion. Note that error bars are +/−1 S.E.

As is apparent, the perceived quality of the neuroscience in the study depended on both the outcome of the study and how that outcome related to participants’ attitudes towards abortion. When the study indicated that fetuses experience pain, and therefore abortion should be proscribed at the second trimester, participants who oppose abortion (the dark bar) rated the quality of the neuroscience quite high, while participants who support abortion (the light bar) rated it relatively low. The converse pattern of results appeared when the outcome of the study indicated that second trimester fetuses do not experience pain. In that case, participants who support abortion gave the neuroscience high quality-ratings while those who oppose abortion gave it relatively low quality-ratings.

Note that conducting a median split to parse participants based on their pre-test attitudes towards abortion –as opposed to omitting the neutral participants–does not materially affect the results: A 2-way ANOVA detected a significant interaction (F(1, 150) = 18.43, p<.001, ηp2 = .113). The main effects for abortion attitude and result of study were not significant (both Fs(1, 149)<1).

General Discussion

A 2008 study conducted by the American Psychological Association on public perceptions of psychology found that large percentages of the public are skeptical about psychology’s scientific status. For instance, only 30 percent of respondents agreed with the statement, “psychology attempts to understand the way people behave through scientific research (p. 3).” [36] Neuroscience has been proposed as the scientific, objective solution to the study of human behavior [32]. Two independent experiments unequivocally supported the selective allure hypothesis. Whether neuroscience can provide the sort of objective truth that some commentators advert to, neuroscience is apparently not treated as objective by laypersons. Consistent with copious research from other domains, neuroscience is more likely to be accepted and credited when it confirms prior beliefs. Thus, while neuroscience might be viewed as more scientific in the abstract, it is unlikely to play a qualitatively different role in the way in which it shapes people’s beliefs and informs issues of social policy.

As with any experimental endeavor, the findings should be qualified and the limitations should be acknowledged. The representativeness of the Amazon Turk Worker pool is not well-known [37] and there is the possibility that the most ardent participants self-selected to participate in experiments involving social and political issues. While potentially valid, this would suggest a reduction in the observed effect sizes rather than a change in their direction. Replication efforts with different samples and stimuli are clearly necessary. Further research is also necessary to examine the boundary conditions of this effect, especially when the issue to which neuroscience is relevant is less politically polarizing. The observed effect would likely be attenuated for non-moral, or less ideologically and politically charged issues [38] but still likely to occur to some degree [39]–[40].

One should bear in mind that the substance of each of the hypothetical studies was identical in the two experimental conditions; the only difference was the outcome of the study. While a single study is unlikely to impel people to completely revise their attitude about a controversial social issue, selectively crediting or discrediting scientific studies based on whether they support previous beliefs virtually ensures that such beliefs will remain largely unchanged. There is some debate as to whether it is logically appropriate for the evaluation of scientific study (or information, more generally) to depend on the outcome it furnishes [26]. We take no position on this normative issue. However, we do note that this reasoning can lead to an echo chamber that contributes to and galvanizes political polarization, and that such reasoning can be especially pernicious if prior beliefs are objectively wrong. Further research might examine potential ways to ameliorate the selective allure effect. Lord, Ross, and Preston [41] found that providing instruction to consider both sides of the argument significantly reduced the tendency to selectively credit information. The possibility of this and other remedies is promising but ultimately an empirical question.

Final Thoughts

Over 35 years ago, Lord, Ross, and Lepper [25] poignantly observed that, “If our study demonstrates anything, it surely demonstrates that social scientists cannot expect rationality, enlightenment, and consensus about policy to emerge from their attempts to furnish ‘objective’ data about burning social issues (p. 2108).” The present findings suggest that this observation applies to neuroscience too. Although hope has been expressed to the contrary, neuroscience –like conventional social science–does not appear to be the panacea for resolving social policy issues that are based on assumptions about human behavior.

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#neuroscience #human nature #personal responsibility #legal culpability #studies #lay understandings of science

[cameronwjones]

16 Can't-Miss AI Events in 2019

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is progressing at an incredible rate. As new developments are made, amazing conferences are founded to educate the world on its many uses and benefits. This post will cover the 16 can't-miss AI events for 2019 so you stay on the cutting edge of this revolutionary technology.

We tend to think of artificial intelligence as a new technology. But, in truth, AI has been dreamed and theorized about for millenia. The ancient Egyptians, Greeks, and Chinese were all fascinated by the idea of inanimate objects suddenly coming to life. Only more recently has technology allowed us to act on these theories of old, though.

The term "artificial intelligence" was first coined in 1956. It then experienced highs and lows over the next few decades before really gaining steam in the late 1990s. Since then, AI technology, and the general public's acceptance of it, has grown by leaps and bounds.

Naturally, annual worldwide, can't-miss conferences have been founded in order to educate and accelerate this field. We've compiled a list of the top 16 events you should seriously consider attending in 2019. Each is sure to be both highly educational and completely unforgettable.

1. AI Masters Conference

Source: AI Masters Conference

Date & Location: January 24 - 25 in Berlin, Germany

Description: An AI conference for marketing and e-commerce key decision-makers.

Why You Should Attend: Newly launched in 2018, the AI Masters Conference is specifically designed to educate business leaders on the numerous developments and uses of AI technology. If you happen to be in a position of leadership at your company, this event will ensure you manage both your people and resources properly as technological developments continue to accelerate.

2. AI for Good Summit

Source: ITU

Date & Location: June 20 - 21 in San Francisco, California

Description: Learn how to use AI technology in a way that benefits society and improves the world.

Why You Should Attend: Re-Work, the force behind many technology events, hosts this summit in order to explore the possibilities of AI and educate attendees on its world-benefitting potential. You'll learn from pioneers in the field on how machine learning can improve your start-up, school, or government department. You'll also have the opportunity to connect with over 600 innovators — game changers from Google, Amazon, Salesforce, and more — and even add them to your professional network.

3. AI & Big Data Expo

Source: AI & Big Data Expo

Date & Location: April 25 - 26 in Olympia, London

Description: A showcase of cutting edge technology and education on its implementation.

Why You Should Attend: The AI & Big Data Expo is unique in that its co-located alongside three other major technology conferences: the IoT Tech Expo, Blockchain Expo, and Cyber Security and Cloud Expo. For those interested in a wide range of technologies, the convenience of Big Data Expo is hard to beat. But even if you only care about AI, this event has its own advantages, including world-class speakers and the opportunity to explore practical AI implementation in business scenarios.

4. Rise of AI Conference

Source: Rise of AI

Date & Location: May 16 in Berlin, Germany

Description: Explore and discuss the impact of the 21st century's "most powerful technology".

Why You Should Attend: Rise of AI is one of the most influential AI conferences in all of Europe. For the last five years they've educated event attendees on what artificial intelligence really is, how it can be applied to everyday scenarios, and what their vision for the future is in regards to AI. Now, you can join 60+ expert speakers and over 800 event-goers and experience the rise of AI first hand.

5. CogX 2019

Source: CogX

Date & Location: June 10 - 11 in London, United Kingdom

Description: A popular conference in Europe with the aim to educate and inspire the AI community.

Why You Should Attend: CogX is a leader in the AI event space and has built a strong event brand. Last year's conference saw 6,500 attendees learn from over 350 presenters. Topics discussed include: the changing attitude towards AI, human-centric computing, and AI's impact on industries as diverse as music and banking. 2019 promises to be even better. Confirmed speakers include leading experts, successful CEOs, and noted academics. CogX also offers flexible ticketing options, allowing attendees to purchase full event passes or expo-only tickets allowing you to witness over 70 tech companies share their newest developments.

6. Artificial Intelligence Conference

Source: O'Reilly

Date & Location: April 15 - 18 in New York, NY

Description: Transform your business by learning the top breakthroughs and best practices regarding AI.

Why You Should Attend: Whether you're a machine learning scientist, data engineer, or general business leader, the Artificial Intelligence Conference has the information you need. Focused on applied AI, event attendees will learn from compelling use cases and tear-downs of successful AI projects to improve their technical skills and make AI work in real-word scenarios. Plus, there’s also a dedicated networking and debate to this conference—perfect for those looking to expand their industry connections and share innovative ideas. Can't swing a trip to New York in April? Variations of the conference will also be held in London, Beijing and San Jose.

7. BLUEPRINT York

Source: VentureBeat

Date & Location: March 26 - 28 in York, Pennsylvania

Description: Learn about AI and how new technological advances will impact work in the United States.

Why You Should Attend: It's no secret that artificial intelligence is radically changing the world. Some experts have predicted that up to 40% of current jobs will be replaced by new innovations within the next few years. Should Americans embrace this? If so, how? BLUEPRINT will explore new AI technologies and educate event attendees on how the future of the workforce — especially in heartland communities like York, PA — will be affected. This is an intimate, invite-only event. If you're lucky enough to receive an invitation, don't miss the opportunity to learn from AI experts, business leaders, and politicians about AI's impact on modern workers.

8. AI Net Conference

Source: Upperside Conferences

Date & Location: April 9 - 11 in Paris, France

Description: An AI and machine learning conference for those in the telecommunications industry.

Why You Should Attend: Presented by Upperside Conferences, a leader in Parisian technology events, AI Net is an AI and machine learning conference geared towards the telecommunications community. Attendees will gain insights and use case details on data collection, statistical analysis, security issues, and more. And since one should never be uncomfortable in the "city of love", event planners have arranged for attendees to stay in the luxurious Marriott Paris Rive Gauche Hotel.

9. Applied Artificial Intelligence Conference

Source: Bootstrap Labs

Date & Location: April 19 in San Francisco, California

Description: Meet and learn from the world's leading AI experts regarding applied AI technologies.

Why You Should Attend: This one day conference brings together many of the world's most experienced AI experts to teach and connect with event attendees. The 2019 curriculum covers topics such as the future of AI in many different industries like transportation, health, cybersecurity, and FinTech. The goal is to give you practical and actionable advice so that you can better harness the power of AI. Previous attendees include personnel from some of the world's largest companies like Facebook, Adobe, J.P Morgan and Ford.

10. Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys)

Source: IntelliSys

Date & Location: September 5 - 6 in London, United Kingdom

Description: Gather with other attendees from 55 different countries to network and learn innovative approaches to tough problems.

Why You Should Attend: The 2019 version of IntelliSys will focus on how AI can be applied to real-world situations — a growing point of interest in the AI community. Event-goers will be able to choose from one of four conference tracks: Artificial Intelligence with studies in deep learning, biometrics and data mining; Machine Vision covering topics like pattern recognition, signal processing and medical diagnosis; Robotics teaching attendees about humanoid, assistive, and mobile robots; and Ambient Intelligence which focuses on smart cities, IoT, and affective computing. Join AI professionals and enthusiasts from around the world to learn about these revolutionary concepts.

11. AI Innovation Summit

Source: AI & Future of Work

Date & Location: January 29 - 30 in San Francisco, California

Description: Learn and grow your career at this two day artificial intelligence conference.

Why You Should Attend: At the AI Innovation Summit you'll be inspired. You'll also learn a whole heck of a lot. Some of the world's most accomplished AI educators and practitioners will be presenting at the 2019 event, sharing new research, and teaching cutting-edge techniques. The list of rockstar presenters includes leaders at Google, Amazon, Netflix, and Adobe. And for those looking for a change of pace, be sure to check out the career expo, where you'll meet recruiters and team leaders with new career opportunities just for you.

12. Artificial Intelligence: Strategies for a Digital Generation

Source: Insuresoft

Date & Location: August 7 - 8 in Palo Alto, California

Description: An AI workshop event for those in the insurance industry.

Why You Should Attend: Fascinated by AI? Interested in insurance? Then you should definitely consider attending SVIA's Artificial Intelligence conference. You'll learn valuable insights on how AI is changing the insurance industry, how AI improves the underwriting, claims, and policy management processes, and how new technology can and should be applied to your business. Whether you're a business owner, marketing manager, or technology officer, if you work in insurance, this conference will benefit you.

13. Think 2019

Source: IBM

Date & Location: February 12 - 15 in San Francisco, California

Description: A technology conference from world leader, IBM.

Why You Should Attend: It's no surprise that IBM, a recognized technological leader for over half a century, hosts an annual event devoted to advancements in technology. While not strictly about artificial intelligence, Think features many AI inspired sessions—such as AI for financial markets, developing business automations, and AI-infused marketing and commerce platforms. For those interested in attending, but unsure of how to broach the subject with their company, the event registration website has tips you can use to convince your boss of the conference's importance.

14. AI Hardware Summit

Source: AI Hardware Summit

Date & Location: September 17 - 18 in Mountain View, California

Description: An industry conference dedicated to the AI chip ecosystem.

Why You Should Attend: Most AI conferences talk about software. This Kisaco Research event is different; they're all about the hardware necessary to make AI possible. Over 600 professionals from AI chip companies, semiconductor startups, and data centers will gather together to inspire, share innovative breakthroughs, and network. It's the perfect opportunity to meet and learn from peers in this growing market.

15. World Summit AI

Source: World Summit AI

Date & Location: October 9 - 10 in Gashouder, Amsterdam

Description: This event's mission is to address the most pressing AI challenges and set the global AI agenda.

Why You Should Attend: When it comes to marketing events in the AI space, World Summit AI deserves a lot of credit. They've grown their conference to feature over 6000 annual attendees from 161 countries. Professionals from industry titans like Apple, Microsoft, and Dell are regulars. World renowned artists play their after parties. Depending on which conference track you choose, you'll have the opportunity to learn from AI experts at NASA, Alibaba, Toyota and more. You can also join in on the startup competition or talent showcase, network with other AI professionals, or peruse the exhibition space. This really is a one of a kind, can't-miss event for 2019.

16. Applied Machine Learning Days (AMLD)

Source: AMLD

Date & Location: January 26 - 29 in Ecublens, Switzerland

Description: Four days of expert-taught tutorials and workshops regarding AI and machine learning.

Why You Should Attend: Sponsored by Microsoft, IBM, and Logitech, AMLD brings together some of the brightest minds in AI technology from many diverse backgrounds. Confirmed speakers for 2019 include a grand chess master, a New York Times writer, university professors, and professionals from Google, Facebook and Microsoft. But attendees won't just be listening to experts, they'll also have the opportunity to get hands-on during specific workshops and trainings, and a conference-wide hackathon. AMLD is one of the largest AI events in Europe and definitely one you should consider attending.

Which AI Events Will You Attend in 2019?

2019 promises to be a banner year for artificial intelligence conferences. As AI continues to progress and push the boundaries of what's possible, events dedicated to the topic will continue to grow as well. Now the only question is, which ones will you be attending?

Each of the conferences listed in this post would be a worthwhile investment and further your career. If you've attended any of these events in the past, let us know in the comments. Did you enjoy your experience? Are you planning to attend again this year? We'd love to know!

from Cameron Jones Updates https://blog.bizzabo.com/ai-events

[thrashermaxey]

Eastern Edge: Defenceman Arbitrage and the Ottawa Senators

  The goal of covering the Atlantic division before September has been accomplished. Unfortunately all of the digital ink that I am about to spew on the Ottawa Senators can promptly be thrown out the window once/if Erik Karlsson is traded.  I had hoped that by avoiding the Senators up until this point that something would have happened on that front. Sadly, I was wrong. 

While I promise to dive into Ottawa there really isn’t much there in terms of fantasy value, so I thought I would expand on a previous article on valuing defensemen.  In the article I throw out the value of goals scored, since the difference between 15 and 13 goals scored should not produce a large statistical advantage from one blueliner to the next. 

So what do blueliners do well? They get assists, power play points, and shots on goal.  So if we rank our defenseman specifically towards valuing those stats we can get a great idea on who is leading the way.  If you are in a bangers league – it would be wise to add in hits and blocks, but I would highly suggest you run the observations independent of each other.  Points are a lot different than counting stats; I have included SOGs simply because there is very high correlation between SOG and points.

In my mind I can’t even believe I haven’t been ranking D this way for the last couple of years. I think it is in your best interest to follow suit as well. As I write this I am cringing that fellow league mates will now have both my strategy and value ranking.

One little piece of information that I added to my defenseman model is primary assist rate on a per game basis.  Why did I choose this? Well P1 assists are correlated with consistent production rather than a player who stumbled into a rash of secondary assists.  I’ve weighted the value of this advanced stat so that it doesn’t completely overtake a PP QB1 from an efficiency standpoint (someone who only scored 15 total assists all primary should not create lopsided value comparisions).

The below plot shows the value or z-score of SOG on Y axis and z-score of assists on the X axis, far right quadrant is particularly valuable. Trust me I understand this is a terrible way to depict data as there are way too many data points, but I do want to show why certain players contain so much value, I think you’ll be able to ascertain who I am talking about here:

  Z-score of average SOG/gm vs. z-score of average assists per game (size of data point = total value of player)

  The fun part of this graph is Will Butcher sitting by himself at a positive z-score relative to his peers in assists, with the size of his dot factoring in the z-score power play points and primary assist rate. Also there are some players in here that when you take a look at their ADP and what other defenseman they are being drafted around is a testament to how bonkers the valuation of defensemen is in terms of assists and SOG, the two things that they are most valuable at producing.

View a fantasy draft like a stock market in that you can expect other players to have the same information by drafting based on ADP.  The ADP should reflect the overall market sentiment/value of a player.  Given this belief the ADPs of top 50 defensemen should be predictive of value and reflected with a statistically significant p-value when they placed in a linear regression.   

In fact, this is true: the ADP listed so far for the upcoming season on Yahoo! is predictive of player value and is also statistically significant. 

Given a 95% confidence interval we can plot the player value, and in this case I am going to use my player valuation (assists, SOG, A1 rate, PPP).  The plot below can show the player valuation compared to their current ADP.  Players above the line are values compared to their ADP and players below the line should be taken behind their current ADP.   I’m having a hard time getting this graph to blow up nice and big so you can find the tweet here, please hit follow as well; I will be doing this for all the other positions this summer.

It’ll be interesting to see if the market can correct as the season gets closer, but in the meantime start thinking about grabbing the guys above the lines as values compared to their peers.

    Switching gears……..back to Ottawa

Like for the Wild West series, the ranks are based on a 12-team, head-to-head league, using the categories of goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits and blocks for forwards/defensemen and wins, saves, save percentage and goals against average for goalies. Player eligibility for this series is based on Yahoo, and draft ranks are based on average draft positions compiled from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS by FantasyPros.  2018-2019 ADPs are up if you couldn’t tell!

Check out yesterday’s column by Chris Kane on Minnesota.

  Recap 

Ottawa managed to go from one goal away from the Stanley Cup Finals in 2016-2017 to one of the absolute worst teams in the league last year.  The power play was atrocious and led to Erik Karlsson’s worst power play assist rate since his first year in the league, when removing the year lost to injury in 2012-2013. 

Unfortunately the midseason trade for Matt Duchene did not produce the anticipated results and now the team is staring down the loss of a potential lottery pick in the 2019 entry draft.   Don’t expect this team to suddenly rocket to the power play elite and have multiple players in the top six worth owning.  The players worth owning on this roster for next year can be counted on one hand.

                                   Overvalued

Bobby Ryan – Enters the year as a 31-year old that has failed to produce anything greater than a 0.5 game pace for basically the last 4 years.  He was drafted at the 202 spot and never produced any fantasy value for either a points or bangers and mash league.  Don’t think this year with an increased opportunity will bring anything different for Ryan, draft a talented rookie rather than Ryan.

  Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

62

11

22

33

0.53

112

9.8%

97

4

52

  Undervalued

Mark Stone – Enter Dylan Larkin 2.0. – I was sorting my spreadsheet for the last three years of production for Stone when I noticed a fairly large outlier.  He scored ONE PP goal! ONE.  He was expected to score roughly four goals, and he shot a whopping four percent on the power play.  For a guy who everyone had crowned as taking the next step last year it sure seems like Stone has another gear to find if he can find a couple more points on the power play, given the surge in his PP usage from only 56% of the available ice time I fully expect Stone to improve on his totals and rates this coming year.  This could be the opportunity share that pushes Stone into a league winner as he returns loads of value on his ADP (No ADP of value is currently available due to Stone being listed as injured).

  Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

58

20

42

62

1.07

132

15.2%

53

11

39

  Matt Duchene – Duchene is currently listed as the 177th-ranked skater on Yahoo! He has been stripped of his RW tag that helped return some positional value. Duchene did turn it on for the second half of last year after the trade so it will be interesting to see what he is able to do in the upcoming campaign.  Given his skill level and the opportunity available I believe Duchene will provide value on his ADP this coming year, don’t sleep on him as a late-middle round selection (career avg point per game pace 0.68)

  Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

82

27

32

59

0.72

190

14.2%

60

13

49

  Erik Karlsson –. Right now he is being slated as the 36th-best skater, when you compare his z-score to other players he will produce value that won’t be accurately captured in the player rankings since it does not factor in positional scarcity.  In most leagues Karlsson is still a first-round or possibly even second-round pick.  I’m not sure drafting Karlsson in the second round is the best options given the value that is available later in your draft even just a couple rounds later.  That being said it is tough to begrudge picking the perennial top fantasy defenseman.  Keep this in mind:

His three year average 5v5 shooting percentage is 6.1% – last year he shot 2.9%

He has averaged 19 power play assists the last three years – he has 13 PPA last year

  Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

71

9

53

62

0.87

196

4.6%

58

18

120

  I hope you enjoyed the analysis of defensemen ADPs – if you’re interested into digging into the source files or have any question about utilizing z-scores to value the players in your league send me a note on twitter. 

Sources: Hockey-reference.com, Naturalstattrick, Corsica.hockey, Frozen Pool

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/eastern-edge/eastern-edge-defenceman-arbitrage-and-the-ottawa-senators/

[healthandfitnessrecipes-blog]

How Screen Time Sets You Up For Disaster

https://healthandfitnessrecipes.com/?p=1103

By Dr. Mercola

Technology didn’t come about by accident, it’s a reflection of human will, or so claims the intriguing documentary, “Stare Into the Lights My Pretties.” Yet, with the rate of technological development continuing to grow exponentially, it’s unclear if anyone envisioned how society would become obsessed with staring at screens, such that our waking hours are dominated by them in one form or another.

In the beginning, there were only a few ways to get new technology funded, known as the ABCs. “A,” for armed forces, included ARPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, which commissioned the work that started the internet. “B,” for bureaucracy, refers to innovations such as government sites intended to deliver information and services, including online tax returns. “C,” or corporate power, made up the third arm, which drove the development of new products to draw in new markets.

According to Lelia Green, a professor and senior lecturer at the school of communications at Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia, who is featured in the film, “Google would offer many examples of corporate power driving development.”1 Yet, social engagement is the new driver of technology that has taken off more so in recent years. Green notes that distributed collaborators and everyday innovators are now an important driver of technology.

“The acknowledgement of distributed networks of collaborators allows recognition of the creative power of ‘harnessing the hive;’ the community of people engaged in a shared activity,” she says. “We see these alliances of enthusiasts working creatively and productively in gaming contexts, in wikis and on fan fiction sites — to name but a few,” but what does all of this mean, and what will happen if this technological culture is left to continue unchecked?

Are Machines Running Our Lives?

At the foundation of the documentary is the unsettling question of who’s really in control: the machines or us? The film gives some unsettling statistics of how integrated technology has become in our 21st century lives:

Over 3.8 billion people have access to the internet

There are 2 billion active Facebook users every month

The average adult spends more than eight hours a day with screens (more time than sleep)

Within the first 15 minutes of waking up, 4 out of 5 smartphone users check their phones

By the time the average person reaches 70, they will have spent the equivalent of 10 to 15 years of their life watching television, more than four years of which was just for the ads

What does this mean for your brain? “As a neuroscientist, I know that the human brain is changing. I know that it’s highly plastic … it’s very dynamic, it will adapt to the environment,” says Susan Greenfield in the film. But the environmental stimuli that come through screens may be keeping us permanently distracted. You read an article online, then see an instant message pop up or go to check an email.

Then you click on an advertisement, and suddenly are watching a video about an entirely unrelated topic. It’s easy to get swept away into the internet bubble, which can have both benefits and risks. Greenfield explained:

“I’ve often spoken about the benefits of screen culture being one of agile processing, but how that mustn’t be confused with content … it could be linked to high IQ, because the skills that you rehearsed when you play video games are similar to the skills required to do well on an IQ test.

You don’t need a lot of facts or infrastructure … but you have to be very agile at looking at patterns and connections and getting to an answer in a very fast time frame … just because, as many claim, we’re seeing an increase in IQ scores in many societies, we’re not seeing an increase in empathy and understanding.”

In a meta-analysis of 116 studies published in Frontiers in Human Neuroscience,2 for example, which set out to determine what effects gaming has on your brain, the evidence suggests that video games may benefit attention, and video game players show improvements in selective attention, divided attention and sustained attention, as well as areas of cognitive control and visuospatial skills.

The downside may be their effects on reward processing areas of your brain. Many such areas have been shown to be affected in people with video game addiction, “an impulse-control disorder with psychological consequences, not unlike other addictive disorders, especially nonsubstance addictions such as pathological gambling,” the study noted.3 “On the one hand, yes it’s very good for mental processing, fluid intelligence,” Greenfield said, “ … but that’s not the same as understanding. Information is not knowledge.”

Are Screens Leaving Us Incapable of Deep Thinking, Addicted to Constant Scrolling?

Nicholas Carr, author of the books, “The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains” and “Utopia Is Creepy,” has found that with rising use of digital devices, millennials are experiencing even greater problems with forgetfulness than seniors.4 This is the “dark side” of neurological plasticity that allows your brain to adapt to changes in your environment.

This type of plasticity is one way your brain recovers after a stroke has permanently damaged one area. However, the consequences to children growing up in the digital era could be devastating. Carr said in the film:

“The human brain is particularly malleable when you’re young. If a person is brought up looking at screens … and being bombarded by information, then the question is will the brain circuitry necessary to do things like deep reading and deep thinking, will they ever come into being … or will they be wired for internet type of thinking?

I think the big fear is that we will end up with a generation of people who are very good at using the net and finding information very quickly but don’t really have a capacity for contemplativeness, concentration or deep engagement with information.”

There are concerns about addiction as well, with 40 percent of the participants in one study admitting they had some level of an internet-related problem and acknowledging they spent too much time online.5 Participants reportedly spent an average of five hours each day on the internet and 20 percent spent over six hours a day. By far the most common reasons for engaging online were social media and shopping.

Yet, overall social media use, and especially nighttime use, has been associated with poorer sleep quality, lower self-esteem and higher levels of anxiety and depression among 12- to 18-year-olds, according to research presented at a British Psychological Society conference.6 Greater social media use among young adults (those aged 19 to 32 years) was also significantly associated with disturbed sleep in a Preventive Medicine study.7

Further, a study of more than 1,000 people in Denmark further revealed causal evidence that “Facebook affects our well-being negatively.”8 Facebook users who took a one-week break from the site reported significantly higher levels of life satisfaction and a significantly improved emotional life, the study revealed.

Is Technology Amplifying the Voice of Corporate Control?

While the internet is viewed as a way to bring the world to our fingertips, there are those who say it’s actually a tool for amplifying the voice of corporate control. We tend to think about the internet as this medium where we can connect to everything and anyone, but in actuality most of the information is flowing through a couple of major gatekeepers, such as Google.

You can customize and filter what you see, but how these things are architected actually may keep you in a carefully constructed bubble. By customizing and individualizing your feed, you won’t even know what’s being kept out. But what happens to our communities, our relationships and our culture if we’re all existing in this “filter bubble,” this world of screens, designed primarily to get people to click more and view more pages?

It’s important to understand that, online, you are the product and corporations are seeking to gain more views of their content. Facebook, for instance, isn’t content to have the average user spend “just” 50 minutes a day. They’d rather it become a platform that’s on all day to become basically a background for your life. As The New York Times reported:9

“Facebook, naturally, is busy cooking up ways to get us to spend even more time on the platform. A crucial initiative is improving its News Feed, tailoring it more precisely to the needs and interests of its users, based on how long people spend reading particular posts

For people who demonstrate a preference for video, more video will appear near the top of their news feed. The more time people spend on Facebook, the more data they will generate about themselves, and the better the company will get at the task.”

Facebook actually uses a sophisticated algorithm to track your interests, who you talk with and what you say, and includes information about your age, gender, income level and a phenomenal number of other specifics that allow advertisers to target exactly who they believe will click on their ads.10 In the case of smartphone devices, these companies are contributing to programing your actions, and how you think and feel.

This is how companies satisfy their advertisers, who are paying for the privilege of your eyes on their ads. Some programmers call this process “brain hacking,” as they incorporate more information from neuropsychology into the development of digital interfaces that increase your interaction with the program.

For instance, getting likes on Facebook and Instagram, the “streaks” on Snapchat or cute emojis on text messaging, are all designed to increase your engagement and desire to return. Technology companies are in the business of manipulating your behavior, and there are privacy concerns as well.

Rebecca MacKinnon of Global Voices Citizen Media Network said in the film, “Surveillance is much more present in our online than our offline lives, and I think most people in the United States … are not aware of that because when police officers come into your house … and go through your cabinets and desk, it’s obvious. If they do the equivalent in your email, your online storage systems or your Facebook … you don’t even know. So you’re not going to raise a fuss about it.”

The fact remains that people are putting intimate details of their lives online without regard for those who could be using that information negatively. The film also points out that personal details you share online — from religious affiliations to sexual preferences to information about your family — could one day be used against you or in a way that could bring you harm.

Screens Expose You to Blue Light

Another little talked about variable when it comes to exposure to screens is blue light. Exposure to LED-backlit computer screens or TVs at night significantly suppresses melatonin production and feelings of sleepiness. When your brain “sees” blue light at night, the mixed message can add up to serious health issues.

In 2011, for instance, researchers found that evening exposure to LED-backlit computer screens affect circadian physiology. Among 13 young men, exposure to five hours of an LED-lit screen at night significantly suppressed melatonin production along with sleepiness.11

The issue extends far beyond sleep, however. LEDs have virtually no beneficial infrared light and an excess of blue light that generates reactive oxygen species (ROS), harming your vision and possibly leading to age-related macular degeneration (AMD), which is the leading cause of blindness among the elderly in the U.S. LED lights may also exacerbate mitochondrial dysfunction leading to chronic conditions ranging from metabolic disorders to cancer.

If you view screens at night, it’s therefore essential to block your exposure to blue light while doing so. In the case of your computer, you can install a program to automatically lower the color temperature of your screen. Many use f.lux to do this, but I prefer Iris software for this purpose. In addition, when watching TV or other screens, be sure to wear blue-blocking glasses after sundown.

Are Machines More Important Than the Real World?

Ultimately, the documentary forces you to take a step back and think about the way technology has inevitably invaded your life. On the upside, it also offers the chance to make changes in how much it influences your daily activities. For some, taking a social media break may be the eye-opening change that’s needed, particularly if you find you feel worse after a browsing session.

You may also want to keep track of how much time you lose while getting distracted online — and devote that time to offline endeavors instead. If you find your life has become more focused on technology than relationships, now’s the time to make changes for the better, before it’s too late. As stated in the film, the risks can be steep:

“Do you touch plastic or human flesh more often? How many machines do you have daily relationships with, compared to how many wild animals do you have relationships with? If you have relationships with machines, you can come to think that they’re more important than the real world.”

Credits: Original Content Source

[trevorxyit658-blog]

List of Penny Stocks to Watch From Biotech and Mining Best Penny Stock App

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List of Penny Stocks to Watch From Biotech and Mining

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Zynga (ZNGA)ZNGA appears with the inventory price of $5.55 and YTD at 6%. Zynga is the company going for walks in the mobile gaming sector. The venture which trades in NASDAQ found the key to success in the mobile gaming world.

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Arotech (ARTX) of Defense Company ARTX is the US defense company that appears with the stock price of $2.24 and the Year-to-date of –15.4%. Arotech company that trades in NASDAQ use ARTX as its code. For your information, the financials at Arotech have not received any floor before the last significant five years. Besides the fact that it was an old story. The profits were $103.5 million and the amount net profit was for about $3.5 million. Even during 2017, the cash of ARTX were $98.7 million and gets the net profit was $3.8 million

Groupon (GRPN) A list of penny stock to watch of GRPN gives its price of $2.32. Meanwhile, YTD or year-to-date is -28%. It turns out the company that nearly similar to Pier 1 trade-in NASDAQ. GRPN financial savings and deals the accommodation and market so it is not a household name for coupons.

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