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timesofocean · 2 years

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Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Italy, France cut off

New Post has been published on https://www.timesofocean.com/gazprom-reduces-gas-supplies-to-italy-france-cut-off/

Gazprom reduces gas supplies to Italy, France cut off

Rome (The Times Groupe)- Italian energy company Eni announced Friday that Gazprom will cut its gas supplies to Italy by 50%. france

Over the past few weeks, Moscow has cut off or reduced gas deliveries to several European Union countries, which have imposed sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

France also has not received any Russian gas via Germany since May 15, according to French network operator GRTgaz.

Maintenance issues at the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany were blamed by Russian officials.

Russia supplies around 40% of Italy’s imported gas, though it is trying to reduce this dependence. Through its network connections with Germany, France receives around 17% of its gas from Russia.

Gazprom’s gas deliveries to Italy were already reduced by 15% on Wednesday and 35% on Thursday this week.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who was in Kyiv with German and French leaders, rejected Gazprom’s “technical reasons” as an explanation.

“Both Germany and us, and others, believe these are lies. In reality they are making a political use of gas like they are using grain for political use,” Draghi said at a news conference in Kyiv with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.

This week, Gazprom cut deliveries to Germany by more than 60%. Russian state-owned company said delays in Siemens’ repair work were to blame for the reductions in supply via the undersea Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

However, Germany said Gazprom’s move was politically motivated.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is the main Russian gas pipeline to Europe after gas flows through Ukraine were reduced by the war.

Paul Gentiloni, the EU’s Economy Commissioner on Thursday, warned that the bloc’s economy could enter a recession if Russian gas supplies ceased, but said that so far there had been no signs of this.

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gusty-wind · 11 months

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NORD STREAM ATTACK: THE CIA KNEW IT WASN’T RUSSIA.

14 Jun, 2023 20:58

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CIA knew Russia wasn’t behind Nord Stream attack -- WSJ

US media is coalescing around the theory that Ukraine planned on blowing up the pipelines

The CIA has known since at least October that Russia did not blow up the Nord Stream gas pipelines, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. While the report claimed that the CIA had attempted to foil a Ukrainian-led plot to bomb the pipelines, a competing report alleges the agency actually carried out the demolition job.

The Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were destroyed in a series of near-simultaneous explosions off the Danish island of Bornholm in late September. The blasts severed a key conduit for Russian natural gas to Europe, effectively removing the possibility of European countries lifting their sanctions on Moscow and restarting gas purchases.

While US President Joe Biden refrained from blaming Russia for the blasts, US Energy Secretary JenniferGranholm told the BBC that “it seems” like Moscow was to blame, while Ukraine has publicly and repeatedly accused Russia of sabotaging its own gas lines.

However, CIA Director WilliamBurns told “a European counterpart” in October that “available evidence didn’t point to Russia,“ the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an official present at the meeting.When asked if Ukraine was to blame, Burns reportedly answered “I hope not.”

According to the American newspaper, theCIA knew about a Ukrainian plot to bomb the pipelines earlier in 2022, but warned Kiev not to go through with the attack. The agency told its European counterparts in August that Ukraine had agreed and the threat had subsided, but both sets of Nord Stream lines were destroyed a month later.

The Wall Street Journal’s report was published a day after Dutch outlet NOS and Germany’s Die Zeit published similar articles claiming that American spies were tipped off by their Dutch colleagues about the alleged Ukrainian plot, and intervened to prevent it. According to earlier reporting by the New York Times and Der Spiegel, a “pro-Ukrainian group” actually managed to take out the gas lines, using a rented yacht to transport explosives to the blast site.

This entire sequence of events has been dismissed by American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, who claimed in February that the Biden administration ordered the CIA to bomb Nord Stream with the help of the Norwegian Navy. Citing sources in US intelligence, Hersh claimed that the explosives were planted during NATO military drills in the Baltic Sea last June and triggered remotely three months later. Therented yacht story, Hersh said afterwards,was planted in the US and German media as a red herringby the CIA and its German counterpart, the BND.

(The US and EU want to blame it on Zelensky and Ukraine so they can force Ukraine to negotiating table, because they know Ukraine won’t win. They are leaking these reports to send a message to him.)

https://www.rt.com/news/578037-cia-knew-russia-nord-stream/

#nord stream pipeline

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collapsedsquid · 6 months

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Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-oldcolonel who served in Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, was the “coordinator” of the Nord Stream operation, people familiar with his role said, managing logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities and used deep-sea diving equipment to place explosive charges on the gas pipelines. On Sept. 26, 2022, three explosions caused massive leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The attack left only one of the four gas links in the network intact as winter approached. [...] Chervinsky is being held in a Kyiv jail on charges that he abused his power stemming from a plot to lure a Russian pilot to defect to Ukraine in July 2022. Authorities allege that Chervinsky, who was arrested in April, acted without permission and that the operation gave away the coordinates of a Ukrainian airfield, prompting a Russian rocket attack that killed a soldier and injured 17 others. Hanushchak, who is no longer serving in the Special Operations Forces, has said publicly that the operation was approved by the Armed Forces, and declined to comment for this article. Chervinsky has said he was not responsible for the Russian attack and that in trying to persuade the pilot to fly to Ukraine and hand over his aircraft, he was acting on orders. He calls his arrest and prosecution political retribution for his criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his administration. Chervinsky has said publicly that he suspects Andriy Yermak, one of Zelensky’s closest advisers, of spying for Russia. He has also accused the Zelensky administration of failing to sufficiently prepare the country for Russia’s invasion.

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mariacallous · 1 year

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Russian ships able to perform underwater operations were present near to where explosions later took place on the Nord Stream pipelines, according to an investigative documentary.

The vessels were reportedly located using intercepted Russian navy communications.

Underwater explosions last September knocked the two Nord Stream pipelines - built to carry gas from Russia to Europe - out of action.

The cause of the blasts is unclear.

Formal investigations are still taking place in countries close to the blast site. So far, they have said only that they believe the explosions were the result of sabotage rather than any kind of accident.

But one possible lead pointing towards Russian involvement has emerged from details of suspicious Russian ship movements in the run-up to the Nord Stream blasts, reported by four Nordic public broadcasters and an accompanying English-language podcast Cold Front.

And Denmark's Defence Command has confirmed a separate report that a Danish patrol boat called Nymfen took 26 photos of a Russian submarine-rescue ship in the area days before the explosions. The Information website said the SS-750 had sailed from Kaliningrad and was close to Bornholm island on 22 September 2022.

The investigation by Denmark's DR, Norway's NRK, Sweden's SVT, and Finland's Yle focuses on the movements and actions of ships between June and September last year which they describe as highly unusual.

The ships are believed to include the Russian naval research vessel Sibiryakov, the tugboat SB-123, and a third ship from the Russian naval fleet that the media outlets have not been able to identify by name.

These were so-called "ghost-ships", which had their transmitters turned off. The broadcasters, however, say they were able to track their movements, using intercepted radio communications the vessels sent to Russian naval bases.

The first vessel departed from a Russian naval base in Kaliningrad before arriving near the pipeline on 7 June.

One radio message places it directly above Nord Stream 2 before moving further north, close to the Nord Stream 1 pipelines, spending hours in the area where the pipeline runs about 80m (260ft) below the surface and where some of the leaks would later occur.

The Sibiryakov arrived on 14 June and went to the same position as the first vessel, close to Nord Stream, and remained there until the next day.

The movements were tracked by a former British naval intelligence officer, who worked on interception of the Russian Baltic Fleet until he retired in 2018. The anonymous officer says he used open-source information and radio communications to carry out his research.

He says the pattern of radio communications in June indicated they were in an "operational phase" at some points.

The tugboat, the SB-123, sailed out to the area on the evening of 21 September. The broadcasters say they intercepted communications that suggest it was operating close to the pipelines and the areas of the explosion from late that evening until around 14:00 on 22 September.

The tugboat is also mentioned in the Information story about the SS-750 submarine-rescue ship, which followed up a German report in March of suspected Russian involvement in the area.

Satellite imagery examined by the broadcasters is said to support the claims about the unusual routes, and other reports in Germany had claimed it was in the area on 21-22 September.

The Sibiryakov is believed to be capable of underwater surveillance and mapping as well as launching a small underwater vehicle. It can be used to support and rescue submarines and has the ability to carry out operations on the seabed, according to experts interviewed by the broadcasters.

The Nordic broadcasters do not say there is conclusive proof of what the vessels were up to or that Russia was behind the blast. But the documentary raises questions about the unusual nature of the activity.

Last month the series revealed that Russian vessels appeared to be mapping out wind farms in the North Sea, including off the UK coast.

Russia has consistently denied any involvement in the blasts.

In the immediate aftermath, some in the West pointed the finger at Russia, while Moscow blamed Western countries, including the UK.

More recently, there were reports that intelligence pointed towards pro-Ukrainian operatives, although not the Ukrainian government itself.

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ukrainenews · 2 years

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Daily(ish) Wrap Up September 3-4, 2022

Under the cut:

Ukraine’s and Europe’s largest nuclear plant was once again knocked offline in the early hours of Saturday amid sustained shelling that destroyed a key power line and penetrated deep into the plant’s premises

A fleet of 13 ships carrying more than 280,000 tonnes of grain and agricultural products left ports in Odesa on Sunday, according to Ukraine’s ministry of infrastructure

Russian forces have hit multiple residential targets in the south central part of Ukraine overnight

Russian troops launched overnight rocket attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine

The Russian energy major Gazprom extended the shutdown of gas flows through its key Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany on Friday evening, providing no timeframe for a reopening

“Ukraine’s and Europe’s largest nuclear plant was once again knocked offline in the early hours of Saturday amid sustained shelling that destroyed a key power line and penetrated deep into the plant’s premises, local Russian-backed authorities said.

The claims came barely a day after a team of inspectors from the UN nuclear agency arrived at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been caught in fierce recent fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces, six months after the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, ordered his troops to invade Ukraine.

The IAEA’s mission is meant to help secure the site as Moscow and Kyiv trade blame for shelling at and around the nuclear plant.

“The Dneprovskaya power line has been hit. The nuclear power plant has switched to servicing its own needs,” Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Kremlin-appointed regional administration, wrote on Telegram, adding that a shell had struck an area between two reactors. His claims could not be immediately verified.

Late on Friday evening, the Russian-backed authorities reported that the plant had been under fire for about two hours, blaming Ukrainian forces in the latest of a series of similar claims.

As of Saturday morning, neither the Ukrainian government nor the country’s nuclear energy operator, Enerhoatom, had commented on these allegations.

The plant has repeatedly suffered complete disconnection from Ukraine’s power grid since last week, with Enerhoatom blaming mortar shelling and fires near the site.

Local Ukrainian authorities accused Moscow of pounding two cities that overlook the plant across the Dnieper river with rockets, also an accusation they have made repeatedly over recent weeks.

In Zorya, a small village about 20km (12 miles) from the Zaporizhzhia plant, residents on Friday could hear the sound of explosions in the area. It was not the shelling that scared them the most, but the risk of a radioactive leak in the plant.

“The power plant, yes, this is the scariest,” said Natalia Stokoz, a mother of three. “Because the kids and adults will be affected, and it’s scary if the nuclear power plant is blown up.”

Oleksandr Pasko, a 31-year-old farmer, said: “There is anxiety because we are quite close.” Pasko said the Russian shelling has intensified in recent weeks.”-via The Guardian

“A fleet of 13 ships carrying more than 280,000 tonnes of grain and agricultural products left ports in Odesa on Sunday, according to Ukraine’s ministry of infrastructure.

The ministry said it was the single largest shipment of produce to leave Ukraine since the country brokered an export deal with Russia, the UN and Turkey on 22 July. The grain initiative was signed to try and avert a global crisis and ensure the safe transport of wheat and other essential products, such as sunflower oil.

The delivery from ports in Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny on Sunday will go to eight countries. So far, 86 ships have left Ukraine to export produce to 19 countries since 1 August, the ministry said.”-via The Guardian

“Russian forces have hit multiple residential targets in the south central part of Ukraine overnight, according to Vitaliy Kim, governor of Mykolaiv.

Posting on his Telegram account, he said that Russian shelling had damaged homes, three hospitals, two education facilities, a hotel and a museum in the area.

Kim said the targets included a private house destroyed by a missile in the village of Vysunsk, Bereznehuvate, where one child is reported to have died and three others have shrapnel injuries.

He said the city of Mykolaiv was subjected to “massive rocket fire” overnight from Saturday into this morning, with many municipal buildings damaged and one person reported as injured so far.”-via The Guardian

Russian troops launched overnight rocket attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine, according to the governor of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko.

In an update posted to his Telegram account, Kyrylenko said:

In Kramatorsk, a rocket hit a food enterprise, injuring a person. Another one hit a light industry enterprise. A fire broke out there.

Russian forces also struck two enterprises in Sloviansk, damaging several houses, Kyrylenko added.

Vadym Liakh, the mayor of Sloviansk, confirmed the city was under attack, writing on Facebook:

The city was shelled again. There were loud explosions on the outskirts. In Bylbasivka, private houses were damaged on Shkilna and Yaseneva Streets.

-via The Guardian

“The Russian energy major Gazprom extended the shutdown of gas flows through its key Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany on Friday evening, providing no timeframe for a reopening.

The move came hours after G7 countries agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil in an attempt to stem the flow of funds to Vladimir Putin’s regime.

Gazprom, the state-owned oil and gas firm, said supplies would remain halted indefinitely after a leak was detected. It said the pipeline would not restart until repairs were fully implemented.

Nord Stream 1 is the single biggest pipeline for gas from Russia to Europe and has the capacity to deliver 55bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year. Continued supplies through the pipeline are seen as crucial to prevent a deepening of the energy crisis.”-via The Guardian

#Daily Update #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia #gazprom #kramatorsk #Mykolaiv #Odesa

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beardedmrbean · 2 years

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BERLIN (AP) — Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday defended her government’s decisions to buy large quantities of natural gas from Russia, which was her country’s primary gas supplier when she left office.

Speaking in Lisbon, Merkel said that “you always act in the time you are in” and that she doesn’t regret her decisions. She said that it was clear that Germany needed to diversify its energy supplies as it moved away from nuclear and coal-fueled power generation and that gas would be needed during that transitional period.

Merkel said that “from the perspective of that time, it was very rational and understandable to get pipeline gas, including from Russia, that was cheaper than LNG from other parts of the world.”

She added that “even in the Cold War, Russia was a reliable energy supplier.”

Merkel led Germany from 2005 until last December. During her time in power, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline bringing gas directly from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea came on stream.

Her government also backed the parallel Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite strong opposition from central and eastern European countries and the United States. It never entered service because current Chancellor Olaf Scholz halted its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

“This brutal attack by Russia has brought a change; it’s a turning point, and the new government of course has to deal with that and it is doing so," Merkel said.

Germany worked to reduce its dependence on Russian gas following the invasion, while Russia in turn cut supplies to Germany through Nord Stream 1 in June. Moscow cited technical problems that German officials dismissed as cover for a political move. Russia ended the flow of gas through the pipeline altogether at the end of August.

Merkel, who hasn't made many public appearances since leaving office, has already defended her attempts as chancellor to bring about a diplomatic solution to tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

On Thursday, she made clear that she stands by her decision in 2011 to phase out Germany's use of nuclear power at the end of this year, and wouldn't comment on an ongoing debate in Scholz's coalition on whether and how much longer the remaining reactors should be kept online.

#nunyas news #we had to do it because investing in our own resources #makes our greenhouse emission go up #and if that happens we can't look down our noses #and everyone else out there

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maaarine · 1 year

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The Chancellor: The Remarkable Odyssey of Angela Merkel (Kati Marton, 2021)

"On the one hand, she has called for European solidarity and has led the way in calling out Putin’s human rights violations.

But even as Putin’s most vocal domestic adversary lay in a coma in a Berlin hospital, Merkel declined to cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which will pump gas directly from Russia, across the Baltic Sea, and into Germany.

When finished, the project will pour billions into the Kremlin’s coffers and provide fuel for only one member of the EU: Germany.

Allowing Nord Stream to proceed exposed in Merkel’s record a blind spot that is hard to square with her many principled positions, but it serves as a reminder that she is also a calculating politician.

It is true that Europe’s energy landscape has been dramatically altered by a recent shift away from Russian to US and Norwegian natural gas, and by antitrust cases against Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas company.

The EU under Merkel has become far more interconnected in this and other areas.

But her professed ambition of a Europe that behaves as a mature bloc, with a united foreign policy, is undermined by this unilateral act.

Moreover, the country that will most suffer if Nord Stream is completed is one where the chancellor has spent a great deal of time and effort: Ukraine.

Kyiv will lose over $1 billion a year in transit fees once the pipeline is completed under the Baltic Sea.

Merkel no doubt weighed all these factors, including how bad the optics would be if she proceeded.

The issue, long predating the Navalny episode, has perplexed some of her staunchest allies.

“Every time Obama asked Merkel why she was going ahead with Nord Stream, Merkel gave a different answer,” Charles Kupchan, an Obama administration national security advisor told me.

“Pressures from the business community, domestic politics, keeping her coalition together, this is not her decision to make, and so on—always a different answer.”

The true answer was likely all of these factors combined.

One of Merkel’s favorite explanations in complex circumstances is “The advantages outweigh the disadvantages.”"

#the chancellor #kati marton #book #russia ukraine

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news-of-the-day · 2 years

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8/30/22

Clashes in Baghdad's Green Zone left 24-30 dead and hundreds wounded. Yesterday I didn't want to delve too much into the issue because I was busy, but I'll elaborate now. Bear with me, I am about the severely simplify the history and current issues, but I will try my best. al-Sadr emerged as a prominent leader in Iraq almost immediately after the fall of Hussein's regime, and became a major enemy of US forces due to his calls to attack troops. During the height of the sectarian violence of 2006-07, his Mahdi Army targeted Sunnis. When elections occurred in 2018, his party/coalition came out on top. I'm explaining all this to demonstrate how he remains a major popular leader, but also can be deeply hated by others. The closest US equivalent I can think of is Trump. Their politics are in no way close, but they are known for their firebrand policies and speeches, their followers have fervent enthusiasm (except al-Sadr is a religious leader so add some extra vehement ardor to the mix), and their opponents generally hate them.

After the 2018 elections, the Iraqi government has more or less been gridlocked with long periods without ministers. In the meantime there have been somewhat continuous protests over lack of infrastructure, jobs, amenities, and rising prices. al-Sadr would sometimes stir the pot by calling for protests or by telling his PMs to sit out for votes. Last June he told his party to resign (which they did en masse) in a gamble to set up a new government, although the parliament tried to continue on working. His supporters stormed the parliament building twice in July after they disliked the prime minister the remaining PMs voted on and sat in the Green Zone, demanding the government be dissolved. They also stormed the judiciary after the courts said it would not be involved. So this entire summer basically has been waiting for the bubble to burst. al-Sadr's move could possibly be another ploy, and there are many skeptics who doubt he's actually leaving politics, especially given his propensity for commanding his followers to protest this or that. He just told his followers to leave the Green Zone.

Pakistan's Climate Minister stated about a third of the country is underwater. Bridges and roads have washed away, isolating villages. Death toll has risen to 1100.

Gas is being cut from the Nord Stream pipeline. Countries like France and Germany are accusing Russia of purposefully withholding gas to increase prices and weaken support for the Ukrainian war.

Jackson, Mississippi doesn't have clean drinking water after their water treatment plants failed. The water system for the city has been suffering from disrepair and not enough staff for years.

1-2) Al Jazeera, Washington Post, Al Monitor 3) BBC 4) Reuters 5) Mississippi Today

#news #iraq #muqtada al-sadr #pakistan #jackson mississippi

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nicklloydnow · 1 year

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“Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.

Two of the pipelines, which were known collectively as Nord Stream 1, had been providing Germany and much of Western Europe with cheap Russian natural gas for more than a decade. A second pair of pipelines, called Nord Stream 2, had been built but were not yet operational. Now, with Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border and the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945 looming, President Joseph Biden saw the pipelines as a vehicle for Vladimir Putin to weaponize natural gas for his political and territorial ambitions.

(…)

Biden’s decision to sabotage the pipelines came after more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to best achieve that goal. For much of that time, the issue was not whether to do the mission, but how to get it done with no overt clue as to who was responsible.

There was a vital bureaucratic reason for relying on the graduates of the center’s hardcore diving school in Panama City. The divers were Navy only, and not members of America’s Special Operations Command, whose covert operations must be reported to Congress and briefed in advance to the Senate and House leadership—the so-called Gang of Eight. The Biden Administration was doing everything possible to avoid leaks as the planning took place late in 2021 and into the first months of 2022.

(…)

From its earliest days, Nord Stream 1 was seen by Washington and its anti-Russian NATO partners as a threat to western dominance. The holding company behind it, Nord Stream AG, was incorporated in Switzerland in 2005 in partnership with Gazprom, a publicly traded Russian company producing enormous profits for shareholders which is dominated by oligarchs known to be in the thrall of Putin. Gazprom controlled 51 percent of the company, with four European energy firms—one in France, one in the Netherlands and two in Germany—sharing the remaining 49 percent of stock, and having the right to control downstream sales of the inexpensive natural gas to local distributors in Germany and Western Europe. Gazprom’s profits were shared with the Russian government, and state gas and oil revenues were estimated in some years to amount to as much as 45 percent of Russia’s annual budget.

(…)

In December of 2021, two months before the first Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, Jake Sullivan convened a meeting of a newly formed task force—men and women from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the CIA, and the State and Treasury Departments—and asked for recommendations about how to respond to Putin’s impending invasion.

It would be the first of a series of top-secret meetings, in a secure room on a top floor of the Old Executive Office Building, adjacent to the White House, that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB). There was the usual back and forth chatter that eventually led to a crucial preliminary question: Would the recommendation forwarded by the group to the President be reversible—such as another layer of sanctions and currency restrictions—or irreversible—that is, kinetic actions, which could not be undone?

What became clear to participants, according to the source with direct knowledge of the process, is that Sullivan intended for the group to come up with a plan for the destruction of the two Nord Stream pipelines—and that he was delivering on the desires of the President.

Over the next several meetings, the participants debated options for an attack. The Navy proposed using a newly commissioned submarine to assault the pipeline directly. The Air Force discussed dropping bombs with delayed fuses that could be set off remotely. The CIA argued that whatever was done, it would have to be covert. Everyone involved understood the stakes. “This is not kiddie stuff,” the source said. If the attack were traceable to the United States, “It’s an act of war.”

(…)

What came next was stunning. On February 7, less than three weeks before the seemingly inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden met in his White House office with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, after some wobbling, was now firmly on the American team. At the press briefing that followed, Biden defiantly said, “If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

Twenty days earlier, Undersecretary Nuland had delivered essentially the same message at a State Department briefing, with little press coverage. “I want to be very clear to you today,” she said in response to a question. “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Several of those involved in planning the pipeline mission were dismayed by what they viewed as indirect references to the attack.

“It was like putting an atomic bomb on the ground in Tokyo and telling the Japanese that we are going to detonate it,” the source said. “The plan was for the options to be executed post invasion and not advertised publicly. Biden simply didn’t get it or ignored it.”

Biden’s and Nuland’s indiscretion, if that is what it was, might have frustrated some of the planners. But it also created an opportunity. According to the source, some of the senior officials of the CIA determined that blowing up the pipeline “no longer could be considered a covert option because the President just announced that we knew how to do it.”

The plan to blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2 was suddenly downgraded from a covert operation requiring that Congress be informed to one that was deemed as a highly classified intelligence operation with U.S. military support. Under the law, the source explained, “There was no longer a legal requirement to report the operation to Congress. All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.”

The Agency working group members had no direct contact with the White House, and were eager to find out if the President meant what he’d said—that is, if the mission was now a go. The source recalled, “Bill Burns comes back and says, ‘Do it.’”

(…)

In the past few years of East-West crisis, the U.S. military has vastly expanded its presence inside Norway, whose western border runs 1,400 miles along the north Atlantic Ocean and merges above the Arctic Circle with Russia. The Pentagon has created high paying jobs and contracts, amid some local controversy, by investing hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade and expand American Navy and Air Force facilities in Norway. The new works included, most importantly, an advanced synthetic aperture radar far up north that was capable of penetrating deep into Russia and came online just as the American intelligence community lost access to a series of long-range listening sites inside China.

A newly refurbished American submarine base, which had been under construction for years, had become operational and more American submarines were now able to work closely with their Norwegian colleagues to monitor and spy on a major Russian nuclear redoubt 250 miles to the east, on the Kola Peninsula. America also has vastly expanded a Norwegian air base in the north and delivered to the Norwegian air force a fleet of Boeing-built P8 Poseidon patrol planes to bolster its long-range spying on all things Russia.

In return, the Norwegian government angered liberals and some moderates in its parliament last November by passing the Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA). Under the new deal, the U.S. legal system would have jurisdiction in certain “agreed areas” in the North over American soldiers accused of crimes off base, as well as over those Norwegian citizens accused or suspected of interfering with the work at the base.

(…)

Back in Washington, planners knew they had to go to Norway. “They hated the Russians, and the Norwegian navy was full of superb sailors and divers who had generations of experience in highly profitable deep-sea oil and gas exploration,” the source said. They also could be trusted to keep the mission secret. (The Norwegians may have had other interests as well. The destruction of Nord Stream—if the Americans could pull it off—would allow Norway to sell vastly more of its own natural gas to Europe.)

(…)

The C4 attached to the pipelines would be triggered by a sonar buoy dropped by a plane on short notice, but the procedure involved the most advanced signal processing technology. Once in place, the delayed timing devices attached to any of the four pipelines could be accidentally triggered by the complex mix of ocean background noises throughout the heavily trafficked Baltic Sea—from near and distant ships, underwater drilling, seismic events, waves and even sea creatures. To avoid this, the sonar buoy, once in place, would emit a sequence of unique low frequency tonal sounds—much like those emitted by a flute or a piano—that would be recognized by the timing device and, after a pre-set hours of delay, trigger the explosives. (“You want a signal that is robust enough so that no other signal could accidentally send a pulse that detonated the explosives,” I was told by Dr. Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Postol, who has served as the science adviser to the Pentagon’s Chief of Naval Operations, said the issue facing the group in Norway because of Biden’s delay was one of chance: “The longer the explosives are in the water the greater risk there would be of a random signal that would launch the bombs.”)

On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, the high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission. Within a few minutes, pools of methane gas that remained in the shuttered pipelines could be seen spreading on the water’s surface and the world learned that something irreversible had taken place.

FALLOUT

In the immediate aftermath of the pipeline bombing, the American media treated it like an unsolved mystery. Russia was repeatedly cited as a likely culprit, spurred on by calculated leaks from the White House—but without ever establishing a clear motive for such an act of self-sabotage, beyond simple retribution. A few months later, when it emerged that Russian authorities had been quietly getting estimates for the cost to repair the pipelines, the New York Times described the news as “complicating theories about who was behind” the attack. No major American newspaper dug into the earlier threats to the pipelines made by Biden and Undersecretary of State Nuland.

While it was never clear why Russia would seek to destroy its own lucrative pipeline, a more telling rationale for the President’s action came from Secretary of State Blinken.

Asked at a press conference last September about the consequences of the worsening energy crisis in Western Europe, Blinken described the moment as a potentially good one:

“It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs. That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come, but meanwhile we’re determined to do everything we possibly can to make sure the consequences of all of this are not borne by citizens in our countries or, for that matter, around the world.”

(…)

The source had a much more streetwise view of Biden’s decision to sabotage more than 1500 miles of Gazprom pipeline as winter approached. “Well,” he said, speaking of the President, “I gotta admit the guy has a pair of balls. He said he was going to do it, and he did.”

Asked why he thought the Russians failed to respond, he said cynically, “Maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did.”

#russia #ukraine #war #nord stream #norway #nato #wwiii #biden

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mariacallous · 7 months

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The German economy successfully adapted to the cut-off of natural gas from Russia last year, suggesting that Germany could have moved more swiftly to sanction Russia after it invaded Ukraine, according to a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 29.

After the invasion in February 2022, German political, business, and labor union leaders debated whether to embargo the import of Russian gas. Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia at the time. Studies financed by affected business associations and unions warned that an embargo would produce a severe recession—spiking unemployment and a 6-12% plunge in Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Less than two weeks after the invasion, the authors of the current paper, along with other co-authors, forecast a much smaller GDP decline of 1-3% if Germany was cut off from Russian gas.

Before Germany’s leaders acted on an embargo, Russia’s government-owned energy giant, Gazprom, reduced gas flowing through its Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 40% in June 2022 and halted the flow entirely at the end of August, driving natural gas prices to record levels in Europe. (The pipeline was then destroyed by an explosion in September.)

In their latest paper—”The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect”—the authors note that, despite a 20% drop in gas consumption, Germany’s GDP expanded by 2% in 2022. Its GDP did suffer a brief mini-recession, however, contracting 0.5% in the last quarter of 2022 and 0.1% in the first quarter of this year.

“Overall, while the German economy is stagnating and faces substantial long-run headwinds, the direct economic costs of the end of Russian energy imports proved moderate and manageable,” write Benjamin Moll of the London School of Economics; Moritz Schularick of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research institute in Germany; and Georg Zachmann of Bruegel, a think tank in Belgium.

They attributed Germany’s success in coping with the gas cut-off to a combination of the adaptability of a market-based economy and policies that supported households and businesses while maintaining market price signals.

Instead of capping gas prices, which would have removed the incentive to reduce energy consumption or find alternative energy sources, the German government offset some the burden by providing monthly lump-sum payments to businesses and households, based on past gas consumption rather than current consumption. Also, Germany quickly found alternative sources by tapping into liquefied natural gas terminals in the Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

The authors conclude that, had Germany embargoed Russian gas at the end of March 2022, soon after the invasion, it would have had sufficient gas to get through the following winter. The failure to implement sanctions sooner, they write, “represents a major missed opportunity … to stand up to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and help avert enormous human suffering in Ukraine.”

The authors write that Germany’s ability to adapt to the cut-off of Russian gas holds important lessons for similar cases in the future, such as China and Taiwan.

“Market economies have a tremendous ability to adapt that we should not underestimate again,” they write.

Download the conference draft

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ukrainenews · 2 years

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Daily Wrap Up September 5, 2022

Under the cut:

Russian natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 will not resume shipments until Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) repairs faulty equipment, Gazprom’s (GAZP.MM) Deputy Chief Executive Officer Vitaly Markelov told Reuters

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to issue a report on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine on Tuesday, a day after shelling cut its electricity supplies for the second time in two weeks and raised fears of catastrophe

Russia will not resume in full its gas supplies to Europe until the west lifts its sanctions against Moscow, the Kremlin said, as concerns over Russian gas supplies continued to drive up energy prices

Russian officials have privately warned that the country may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of western sanctions spreads in an internal report prepared for the government

Zelensky says three settlements liberated in southern and eastern Ukraine

Ukraine offensive prompts Kherson separatists to ‘pause’ poll on joining Russia

“Russian natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 will not resume shipments until Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) repairs faulty equipment, Gazprom’s (GAZP.MM) Deputy Chief Executive Officer Vitaly Markelov told Reuters on Tuesday.

“You should ask Siemens. They have to repair equipment first,” he said on the sidelines of Eastern Economic Forum in Russian Pacific port of Vladivostok, when asked about when the pipeline could start pumping gas again.

Gazprom on Friday said it detected an engine oil leak at the only turbine still working at the Portovaya compressor station for the Nord Stream 1 system and would shut off supply until it was repaired.

Siemens Energy said on Saturday that it had not been commissioned to carry out the repair work, and that the leak reported by Gazprom would not usually affect the operation of a turbine and could be sealed on site.

It also said other turbines were available for use at the affected compressor station.”-via Reuters

“The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to issue a report on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine on Tuesday, a day after shelling cut its electricity supplies for the second time in two weeks and raised fears of catastrophe.

Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of risking nuclear disaster by shelling near Europe's largest nuclear plant, which officials said disrupted power lines on Monday and took the sole remaining reactor offline.

The incident came as Ukrainian forces pressed their counter-attacks in the south and east, raising the national flag over a town in Kherson province, a southern region occupied by Russia since the war's early days.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), citing information supplied from Ukraine, said the plant's backup power line had been cut to extinguish a fire but that the line itself was not damaged and would be reconnected.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog said the plant had enough electricity to operate safely and would be reconnected to the grid once backup power was restored.

The IAEA's presence at the plant was reduced to two staff members from six on Monday. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi will issue a report on Ukraine, including the plant, on Tuesday and then brief the U.N. Security Council, the IAEA said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday warned of a near "radiation catastrophe" and said the shelling showed Russia "does not care what the IAEA will say."

The nuclear concerns add to the ongoing energy fight between Moscow and the West since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in late February as the larger military conflict continues.

European gas prices soared on Monday as Russia kept its main gas pipeline to Germany shut, bringing fears of a bleak winter for consumers and businesses across the continent.

Moscow blames disruption to equipment repairs and maintenance caused by Western sanctions for its halt to the flow of gas through Nord Stream 1, its main pipeline to Germany. Russia was due to reopen the pipeline on Saturday but is now shut indefinitely.“-via Reuters

“Russia will not resume in full its gas supplies to Europe until the west lifts its sanctions against Moscow, the Kremlin said, as concerns over Russian gas supplies continued to drive up energy prices.

Speaking to journalists on Monday, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, blamed sanctions “introduced against our country by western countries including Germany and the UK” for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

“Other reasons that would cause problems with the pumping don’t exist,” Peskov was cited by the Interfax news agency as saying.

Peskov added that Russia’s full resumption of gas supplies via Nord Stream 1 was “undoubtedly” dependent on whether the west would lift its sanctions on Moscow. “It is these sanctions imposed by the western states that have brought the situation to what we see now.”

Peskov’s statements on Monday are the clearest indication yet that Russia intends to force the EU to lift sanctions imposed against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine in exchange for Russia restarting its gas deliveries.

The leading Russian energy supplier Gazprom announced on Friday evening that a suspension of gas supplies heading westwards through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would be extended indefinitely, citing “malfunctions” on a turbine along the pipeline.

Gazprom has similarly blamed western sanctions for disrupting gas deliveries, saying the manufacturer Siemens could not perform repairs on the turbines used in Nord Stream 1 because of sanctions against the Russian state energy company.

The EU has rejected Gazprom’s claims, accusing Putin of weaponising its gas exports.

The energy crisis in Europe, triggered by lower Russian gas flows, is seen as a major test of the block’s support for Ukraine.”-via The Guardian

“Russian officials have privately warned that the country may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of western sanctions spreads in an internal report prepared for the government, Bloomberg reports.

The confidential report, which was seen by the network, finds that sanctions by western allies could handicap sectors that Russia has relied on for years to power its economy.

It paints a much bleaker picture of the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation as a result of its invasion of Ukraine than officials usually do in their public pronouncements.

In two of the three scenarios in the report, Russia’s economy could return to prewar levels only at the end of the decade or later. All the scenarios see the pressure of sanctions intensifying, with more countries likely to join them.

As many as 200,000 Russian IT specialists may leave the country by 2025, the report says, while also warning that the country faces a “blockade” that “has affected practically all forms of transport,” further cutting off its economy.”-via The Guardian

Full article here at Bloomberg.

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that two settlements in the south of the country and a settlement in the eastern Donetsk region were liberated.

He did not say precisely where the settlements were and provided no timeline except that his military commanders and head of intelligence delivered “good reports” at a meeting on Sunday.

In his daily video message, Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had also “advanced and regained certain heights” in the Lysychansk-Siversk direction.”-via CNN

“Russia-appointed officials in the occupied Kherson region of Ukraine say they are “pausing” a planned referendum on whether to become part of Russia because of attacks by Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine last week said it had launched offensives in several directions in the southern region but has since released few details and continues to insist on a “regime of silence” for strategic reasons.

Russian state news agency Tass reported that the head of Kherson’s authorities, Kirill Stremousov, said plans for a referendum on joining Russia had been “paused” because of the security situation.

Stremousov told Tass attacks on the Antonivskiy Bridge in Kherson city by Ukrainian forces had stopped traffic from crossing the Dnieper River, which links the two sides of the region.

Russian forces took control of the Kherson region in early March and have since made clear their intention to incorporate the region as part of Russia.

If the referendum takes place, it looks to be similar to the one Russia carried out in Crimea in 2014, which the UN general assembly declared invalid.

Though it is highly unlikely the international community would recognise Russia’s takeover, Ukraine has been determined not to allow Russia to officialise its control of the region.”-via The Guardian

#Daily Update #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia #kherson #gazprom #UN #donetsk

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beardedmrbean · 2 years

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Danish and Swedish officials on Tuesday said two leaks had been identified on the Nord Stream 1 Russia-Europe gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

The news came only hours after a similar development on its twin pipeline, Nord Stream 2. Both conduits have become flash points in the escalating energy war that has sent gas prices rocketing since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What do we know so far?

Officials said a pressure drop was detected in the Nord Stream 1 undersea gas channel soon after a similar fall was detected in its sister pipeline, Nord Stream 2.

Both of Nord Stream 1's two lines are affected, while one of Nord Stream 2's pipelines showed a drop in pressure.

Marine authorities identified a gas leak southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm as the likely cause of the issue affecting Nord Stream 2. Danish officials warned of a threat to shipping in the area and asked vessels to steer clear.

Swedish authorities on Tuesday said there were two leaks on Nord Stream 1 — one in the Danish maritime economic zone and the other in the Swedish one. The two leaks were reported to be very close to one another.

The German economy ministry said it was investigating the incident.

"We currently do not know the reason for the drop in pressure," it said.

Blasts registered by Swedish seismologists

Seismologists from Sweden's National Seismology Centre (SNSN) told public broadcaster SVT that powerful blasts had been registered in the areas of the gas leaks on Monday.

"There is no doubt that these were explosions," SNSN seismologist Bjorn Lund told SVT.

Denmark's armed forces meanwhile released footage showing bubbles on the surface of the Baltic Sea above the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines and reported that the largest of the leaks had caused surface disturbance of around 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) in diameter.

What's the significance?

Both of the pipelines were built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe, although the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was never activated.

German officials have not yet provided any information on the possible cause of the damage. However, Berlin's Tagesspiegel newspaper cited German security circles saying that sabotage was strongly suspected. "Our imagination no longer allows for a scenario in which this is not a targeted attack," the newspaper quoted its source as saying.

Swedish police launched a preliminary investigation into possible sabotage a national police spokesperson said.

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said it was "hard to imagine" that the leaks were "accidental."

Speaking to Danish media while on a visit to Poland, Frederiksen said: "It's an unusual situation, to have three leaks a distance from each other. That's why it's hard to imagine that it's accidental."

Ukraine blamed the leaks on Moscow.

"The large-scale 'gas leak' from Nord Stream 1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU," Kyiv's presidential advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak wrote on Twitter.

He accused Russia of seeking to "destabilize the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic."

Separately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was "extremely concerned" by the reports of damage and that no option, including sabotage, can be excluded at the moment.

"Obviously, there is a destruction of the pipeline. And what the reason is, there is no option that can be ruled out until the results of the investigation emerge," Peskov was cited as saying by Interfax state news agency. "This is an absolutely unprecedented situation that needs to be resolved quickly."

While neither pipeline has been delivering supplies to Europe, both have still been filled with gas.

Why is no gas flowing from Russia?

Nord Stream 1 was carrying gas to Germany until earlier this month, but Russian energy giant Gazprom cut off the supply, claiming there was a need for urgent maintenance work to repair key components.

German officials have rejected state-owned Gazprom's explanation of technical problems, saying the stoppage is merely a power play in response to Western sanctions.

Gazprom began to cut supplies through Nord Stream 1 in mid-June, blaming a delay in the delivery of a turbine that had been sent to Canada for repair.

The newer Nord Stream 2 pipeline was fully complete when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended its certification, two days before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Germany has long been highly dependent on imports of fossil fuels from Russia to meet its energy needs but has been forced to look for new sources since the war in Ukraine began.

#nunyas news #yikes

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usafphantom2 · 2 years

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NATO allies help Nordic countries patrol oil and gas facilities after Nord Stream incidents

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 10/01/2022 - 11:09

Norwegian F-35 fighters fly over the oil field of Draugen, in the North Sea. (Photo: Norwegian Ministry of Defense)

French, German and UK military means will contribute to the safety of oil and gas facilities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, after the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, an act now widely attributed to Russia.

This was confirmed for the first time by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, who told the media on Friday that the country was “in discussion with allies to increase its presence in Norwegian waters and accepted German, French and British contributions”.

Actions are being taken after the first disruptions in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea were detected on September 26.

Norway has already sent ships from the navy and the coast guard to patrol its oil and gas facilities, in addition to increasing the overflights of combat aircraft. Norway is taking the safety of its facilities seriously, as it took on the role of one of the leading gas suppliers to Europe after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year.

“I understand that people are worried that something similar could happen to our oil and gas facilities,” Støre said on Friday. “We have no indication that there are direct threats against the Norwegian oil and gas sector,” he noted.

Store did not detail the form of support that would be provided by the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

BREAKING: NATO closely monitors the situation in the Baltic Sea. Allies are investigating the Nord Stream gas leaks and exchanging information, including with Finland and Sweden

They can’t and won’t even open their mouth to the public of real culprit. Only Russia can expose USpic.twitter.com/tI1jyfuoh7

— ? IFE News Agency? (@IFENewsAgency)September 27, 2022

Denmark, which also has offshore oil and gas platforms, unfolded the HDMS Absalon frigate and the environmental ship Gunnar Thorson in the waters around the gas leaks, where they help ensure that civil ships do not enter the prohibited areas. In addition, a Norwegian military helicopter is contributing to air surveillance.

The Swedish Coast Guard is also involved in the investigation and response to leaks.

Tags: Military AviationNATO - North Atlantic Treaty OrganizationWar Zones - Russia/Ukraine

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Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. It has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.