ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Shortlisted: All of Us Strangers / Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret / Priscilla
THE NOMINEES ARE:
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, written by Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese
NA-HON-ZHIN-GA: Tomorrow we will bury this one. This Pipe Person. Our Messenger to Wah-kon-tah. It is time to bury this pipe with dignity and put away its teachings. The children outside listening, they will learn another language. They will be taught by white people. They will learn new ways and will not know our ways.
ORLANDO, MY POLITICAL BIOGRAPHY, written by Paul B. Preciado
PAUL: In your book, Orlando’s sex change happens in his sleep. I thought that if it happened to Orlando, maybe it could also happen to me. Then sleep became for me the magical realm in which the gender transition took place. Perhaps this explains why I sleep so much and so well. That’s why nights have become silent waiting rooms in which, immersed in my thoughts, I wait for the change to take place. I imagined the beds as a dreamlike, painless operating table where my lying body was re-coded. I believed sleep could act on the body like a chemical process acts on an element. I thought sleep was like freezing, or like evaporation: a process that induces a change in form but not in meaning.
POOR THINGS, written by Tony McNamara
MAX: I wondered if perhaps you were raising her to be your mistress, a dark thought unworthy of me I know. So you are not laying with her…
GOD: Spermatic ejaculation can only induce homeostasis in me if accompanied by prolonged stimulation of higher nerve centres whose pressure upon the ductless glands changes the chemistry of my blood not for a few spasmodic minutes, but for many days!
MAX: …what??
GOD: I am a eunuch and can’t fuck her. To get a sexual response from my body would take the same amount of electricity as runs North London. Besides, my paternal feelings seem to outweigh my sexual thoughts.
THE ZONE OF INTEREST, written by Jonathan Glazer
HEDWIG: They’d have to carry me out of here. This is our home! We’re living how we dreamed we would, since we were seventeen. Beyond how we dreamed! Out of the city finally. Everything we want on our doorstep. And our children strong and healthy and happy. Everything the Führer said about how we should live is exactly how we do. Drive east, lebensraum. This is our lebensraum.
AND THE CRISTAL GOES TO...
THE TASTE OF THINGS, written by Trần Anh Hùng
EUGÉNIE: How did you feel after your first bite of the Baked Alaska?
PAULINE: I almost cried.
EUGÉNIE: Why?
PAULINE: ...I don’t know.
EUGÉNIE: Have you ever cried before while eating something?
PAULINE: No.
EUGÉNIE: What do you think happened?
PAULINE: I don’t know.
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Oscar Picks 2023, Part III: The Big 8
Despite a runaway expected winner for Best Picture, this promises to be an exciting Oscar year for most of the big categories. There are several hot two-horse races and some that are anyone’s game.
But just like in national elections, happenings in one place could be the sign of things to come elsewhere. Look for the Supporting Actress category early in the Ceremony to give us a sense of how things will play out for the night. A win for Jaime Lee Curtis could mean a sweep of the table for EEAAO. If Bassett or Condon wins, it may mean a more tempered night.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
This is supposed to be Brendan Fraser’s year. But polarizing reviews for The Whale may cost him his trophy. As much as this seems to be a two-man race, any of the other three performances are highly deserving, with all but Mescal winning some piece of major hardware. I still give the edge to Fraser, as he won the SAG award and actors make up the biggest chunk of the Academy.
Who will win: Brendan Fraser
But look out for: Austin Butler
Who I’d vote for: Colin Farrell
If I could add one more: Eden Dambrine (Close). There was no way the Academy was going to recognize a teenage lead in a foreign movie, but few performances by actors of any age are as deeply moving.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Equally exciting as the Best Actor contest, this one appears to be a two-woman race between Blanchett and Yeoh. Even with their impressive résumés, both give career-best performances and have split the awards this season. I presume they’ll be the top two on most ballots. But Blanchett already has two Oscars. I think Academy voters will want to finally reward Yeoh for her exceptional career.
Who will win: Michelle Yeoh
But look out for: Cate Blanchett
Who I’d vote for: Cate Blanchett
If I could add one more: Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Where my Black women at?! Kudos to Riseborough for a strong performance and even stronger campaigning, but it did preclude the Academy from recognizing Deadwyler’s performance and the film as a whole.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is one of the few sure bets of the evening. Ke Huy Quan has won almost every major award. But Keoghan’s recent victory at the BAFTAs and 3rd place ranking from the National Society of Film Critics may make an impact. Henry and Hirsch are long shots, but I wish Gleeson would have garnered more hardware for his excellent performance.
Who will win: Ke Huy Quan
But look out for: Barry Keoghan
Who I’d vote for: Brendan Gleeson
If I could add one more: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans). After so many exceptional performances in Oscar-nominated Best Pictures, what does Dano have to do to finally get a nod?
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela Bassett seemed a surefire choice early in awards season, but Jamie Lee Curtis has been on a tear recently. Momentum for EEAAO may just propel her to victory. And while I think Hsu’s performance was actually the more engaging and moving of the film, Academy voters are more likely to pick the veteran favorite. Chau has garnered great praise for her role in The Whale, but she’s the only real long shot here. Condon is coming off a BAFTA win and was the pick of the National Society of Film Critics.
Who will win: Jamie Lee Curtis
But look out for: Angela Bassett
Who I’d vote for: Kerry Condon
If I could add one more: Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness). In her role as toilet manager turned captain, De Leon commands the screen and stimulates the moral and ethical questions the film seeks to ask of its audience.
Directing
Nominees:
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
This award seems written in stone, which is sad considering the incredible depth in the category. Spielberg and Field both offer masterclasses in directing with their entries. McDonagh’s expertise as a playwright shows in his superlative storytelling. Östlund skillfully translates his political and social commentary to pictures. But the Daniels’ creativity, vision, and mastery at so many different styles makes them a shoe-in.
Who will win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
But look out for: Steven Spielberg
Who I’d vote for: Todd Field or Steven Spielberg
If I could add one more: Sarah Polley (Women Talking). Not merely for female representation, Polley deserves to be in this group because her film is one of the most unique, emotional, and engaging stories told on screen this year.
Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
This may just be my favorite category of the 2023 Oscars. The five nominees could not be more different from each other, and yet (almost) equally deserving of praise. Banshees took home the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and National Board of Review award. EEAAO won the Writers Guild, Critics’ Choice, and NY Film Critics awards. Tár was the pick of the National Society of Film Critics and LA Film Critics. I think the signs are pointing to EEAAO, though the Academy may offer this as a consolation prize to the excellent Banshees.
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
But look out for: The Banshees of Inisherin
Who I’d vote for: The Banshees of Inisherin
If I could add one more: Aftersun. Charlotte Wells’ intimate account of a father-daughter relationship manages to say so much without hitting you over the head with anything.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Sarah Polley’s Women Talking is only up for two awards this year – Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. While the performances and directing deserve praise, its script is its strongest asset. I think the Academy will choose to recognize it with this award. All Quiet on the Western Front may be a spoiler, though, having just won the BAFTA and being the pick of National Board of Review back in early January. With nine nominations, it could be up for a big night. I also wouldn’t rule out Living, which has got a lot of attention recently.
Who will win: Women Talking
But look out for: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I’d vote for: Women Talking
If I could add one more: Aftersun. Charlotte Wells’ intimate account of a father-daughter relationship manages to say so much without hitting you over the head with anything.
Best Picture
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
All signs point to EEAAO. It’s won the top prize at the awards for the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Writers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild. But ranked choice voting in the Best Picture category can often create pathways you don’t suspect.
Top Gun: Maverick will be a popular choice among American Academy members. It’s likely to occupy that number 2 or 3 spot on a lot of ballots, which could matter if multiple rounds are needed to select a winner. The film was the top pick of the National Board of Review. But without a Best Director nod or any acting nods, the odds aren’t in its favor.
Banshees is also one that’s likely to do well on most ballots, even if it doesn’t occupy the top spot for most people. Sadly, its Best Comedy win at the Golden Globes hasn’t been followed up with any other top prizes.
All Quiet on the Western Front was the surprising BAFTA winner, but I think that has more to do with the subject matter and the importance of the First World War to British audiences. It’s a powerful film, but I think the Academy will reward it with International Feature.
Spielberg’s The Fabelmans had a great early push with a Golden Globe win for Best Drama, but support has fizzled as it’s made way for EEAAO in recent award shows.
Tár has been the favorite of most critics, it seems, topping the list for the National Society of Film Critics, NY Critics, and LA Critics (tied with EEAAO).
With 8 nominations, Elvis may have an outside chance, especially if Butler ends up winning Best Actor.
The other films in this category are all long shots for whom the nomination is the prize.
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
But look out for: Top Gun: Maverick
Who I’d vote for: Tár
If I could add one more: Close. Belgium’s entry for Best International Feature deserved much more recognition at the Oscars, including a Best Actor and Best Picture nomination.
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That's it for this year's Oscar picks! Thanks for joining me. Enjoy the show!
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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE NOMINEES ARE:
BONES AND ALL, screenplay by David Kajganich
MAREN We should feel something. ‘Cause we murder people. We steal their stuff, we move the fuck on, and we ruin lives that we don’t even see…
LEE Come on, why are we talking about it like this? We gotta do this! We have to do it!
MAREN Talking about the future, talking about being a friend to yourself… You don’t have that. This is too much. We got 60, 70 years of this?
CATHERINE CALLED BIRDY, screenplay by Lena Dunham
BIRDY It is in this field I raged, and dreamed, and met Aelis in secret, and cried over uncle George and over the fate I have been able to trick, just a bit. There is the goat barn where I met Perkin when I was but a babe, hiding from Morwenna’s silly slap. And here is where the smell of bread is so strong it makes me want to eat the whole entire world as if it were a mere loaf. And some day I will take my little sisters to the tippy top of the village and say "run, little girls. Lift your skirts and run for everyone to see."
HAPPENING, screenplay by Anne Berest, Audrey Diwan, and Marcia Romano
DR. RAVINSKY I don’t approve, but I understand your reasons. Being an unwed mother isn’t easy. You’re young, with your whole life ahead of you.
ANNE I’d like a child one day, but not instead of a life. I could hate that kid. I could never love him.
DR. RAVINSKY I wish I could tell you that it worked.
WOMEN TALKING, screenplay by Sarah Polley
AGATA None of us have ever asked the men for anything. Not even for the salt to be passed. Or to take the washing in, or to open a curtain, or to go easy on the small yearlings, or to put your hand on the small of my back while I try again for the 12th or 13th time to push a baby out of my body. Isn’t it interesting that the one and only request we women would have of the men would be for them to leave?
AND THE CRISTAL GOES TO…
AFTER YANG, screenplay by Kogonada
YANG I wish Chinese tea wasn't just about facts for me.
JAKE What do you mean?
YANG I like watching the way you make tea. It's very beautiful. The way the leaves bloom and float and fall. I wish I felt something deeper about tea. I wish I had a real memory of tea in China. Of a place. Of a time. I think this would...
JAKE ...What?
YANG Sorry. I lost my train of thought.
JAKE Are you happy, Yang?
YANG I don't know if that's the question for me.
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