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andrewuttaro · 4 years

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New Look Sabres: GM 20 - CHI- Dach’ed Two Points

4-1 Regulation Loss

We’ve now reached the twenty-game mark and the question remains: what are the 2019-2020 Buffalo Sabres? It’s safe to say 95% the same thing the 2018-2019 Sabres were but that answer is pessimistic and uncreative at best. Optimists like me have tended toward a whole new, transformed club, but most of the second ten games so far this season has made that conclusion seem foolish. So what is it then? Twenty games is still a little early to tell but let’s make a guess educated by a sample size that constitutes about a fourth of the season. They’re… ugh… you know what fuck it. How am I burning through this many rants and we’re not even to American Thanksgiving yet? I said you guys got to wrack up some points in the standings against lesser competition and its like you immediately started writing out a gorgeously scripted Fuck You like SpongeBob the night before his paper is due! AT LEAST LAST SEASON YOU HAD THE COURTESY AND GOOD SENSE TO WAIT UNTIL CHRISTMAS TO SHIT IN MY MOUTH! Like, I want to blame it on the Chicago Blackhawks somehow having Buffalo’s number or some shit but that would be a special kind of bullshit cop out! You know how I know this is now really bad? Like really, we’re going to be in for a nightmare in the press kinda bad? No, not the grilling of the GM and the Coach or even the benching of Dahlin and Miller for ever shittier versions of Jake McCabe and Rasmus Ristolainen; no, I knew it was bad when fucking dog moms on twitter who watch the Sabres in their free time started saying “GEE, I HOPE DYLAN COZENS TURNS OUT TO BE GOOD!” Build through the Draft. Yeah, I know how a rebuild works but I think we should be getting to the point when we do the thing that comes after building… uh… WINNING? WE ALREADY HIT RESTART ON THE REBUILD! WHEN YOU REBOOT THE MATRIX FOR THE THIRD TIME WHAT DO YOU GET!? HUH!? MATRIX REVOLUTIONS! THAT WAS SHITTIEST ONE! I CAN’T WAIT UNTIL WE CHASE ANOTHER REGIME OUT OF TOWN AND SEE WHAT NEW INSULTS WE CAN LOB AT TERRY AND KIM WHILE THEY BRING IN THE NEXT DUMBASS FOSSIL TO BENCH DAHLIN! WHAT IN THE EVER-LIVING FUCK!

*Deep Breath* So here are our positives: they came out strong in the first again but weren’t rewarded. Casey Mittelstadt had a great game he wasn’t rewarded for. I nearly fainted in a Bath and Body Works this afternoon. Oh wait, I ran out of positives. OH THAT’S RIGHT! YOU DON’T GET ANY WHEN THE ONLY WIN THIS MONTH IS AGAINST THE MOTHER FUCKING OTTAWA SENATORS! EVEN IN THAT GAME YOU WERE TIED TWICE AND BENCHED DAHLIN! Fuck me! Can I just be a Buffalo Bills blog for the next 4-6 weeks before they get pounded by Baltimore in the Wild Card Round? At least that way I wouldn’t have to deal with certain losses against the Leafs later this month: the most jaded, self-absorbed fanbase in hockey fresh off signing the last of their big four in disregard for all the salary cap norms that are supposed to prevent super-teams in this sport! I made a deal with myself that I was going to rein in my Hockey hatreds. How rich! I had a long hierarchy of clubs and players I hated as if I was the clown from “It” feeding off of little twitter babies’ fear and hatred. Fuck the Canes! “Oh YoU’rE a BuNcH oF jErKs! We’Re MaKiNg HoCkEy FuN lIke BaSkEtBaLl WhErE tHe SaMe 5 tEaMs AlWaYs WiN eXcEpT wHeN iT’s ToRoNtO!” FUCK THIS TRASH SPORT! The Soccer world burned me out on being an unbridled hate machine… well that and my acid reflux getting bad at *checks calendar* the age of 25. I narrowed the teams I honest-to-God hate down to Toronto, Boston and the Montreal Max Domi’s in that order! WHY THE FUCK AM I TALKING ABOUT THE LEAFS!? Oh YoU bUfFaLo FaNs, AlL yOu Do Is WoRrY aBoUt ThE LeAfS, dOn’T yOu WiSh YoU wErE uS!? FUCK OUT OF MY LIFE IF I COULD IGNORE YOU I WOULD! Isn’t a sad day in this City when the fucking Buffalo wide right Bills are making me happier than the Sabres!? Josh Allen is running and jumping into John Brown’s arms like its fucking dirty dancing down there while I have to talk myself into believing this club will beat anywhere near enough teams to make the fucking playoffs this year! HARDER MORE, I NEED TO LIE TO MYSELF INTO BELIEVING THE FRONT OFFICE EVEN WANTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS! LET’S GO AHEAD AND WATCH BOTTERILL SIT ON HIS HANDS AGAIN AND ACT LIKE THE WHOLE FUCKING ORGANIZATION ISN’T BURNING DOWN AROUND HIM!

Oh, I guess I should actually try to talk about the game. Are you still reading? Is this a little much to go with your morning coffee? Is this a little rough? Hey, if the coffee doesn’t work you still got some angsty hockey fan yelling at you in all caps. Geez Louise. Should I talk about Tage Thompson finally getting his callup we were somehow excited for this season only to get his arm torn off by a pack of deep-dish eating heathens in the United Center? Should I talk about Jack Eichel scoring the Sabres lone goal in the third period after his club was already down 4-0 looking into the great big oblivion that his career has turned into? Should I talk about how that’s seven goals this month for a Captain who is one of only three goal scorers to have more than one goal this month!? NO GOAL NOVEMBER EVERYONE! I am so out of steam with this team. They could beat Minnesota by double digits tomorrow night, and I will still be certain Boston will ground them down into paste on Thursday like they’re playing a friendly against an AHL team! Sorry, back to this game that darkened our lives last night. Kirby Dach scored the Hawks first two goals: the only two goals in the first two periods of the fucking game! KIRBY DACH! Yes, that guy who was literally just drafted! He was the guy whose tallies reigned supreme while nobody in a white uniform could convert on a chance. CHANCES THEY FUCKING GOT! THESE MOTHER FUCKING SABRES DID THINGS TO THE HAWKS THAT TEAMS WHO BEAT THE BUFFALO NORMALLY DO TO BUFFALO!! They tied them up in the neutral zone, they got ample O-Zone time, they played together or whatever the fuck that actually is other than motivational bullshit! All that and they get to be down 2-0 going into the third. You want proof God hates the Sabres? South Buffalo’s own Patrick Kane scored on the powerplay to make it 3-0! UNASSISTED! Just for shit and giggles let’s pretend its 2013: Jonathan Toews gets a goal assisted by Brendan Saad and Brent Seabrook because fuck it! Time is a flat, circular dinner plate used to bash over the heads of starving hockey fans from upstate New York!

I guess I better end on some good notes. That early rush on points in the standings has been exhausted so we’re already in a hole before Thanksgiving again like the old days. Shoot, sorry that wasn’t a good note. All endless vats of eternally replenishing pessimism aside, Brandon Montour had a decent night. I don’t know guys, I had so much fun writing the Senators postgame it was like there was finally a release. I finally got to enjoy this thing I do for fun in my free time! I have to write a Masters Thesis this coming Winter and Spring. Should I really spare the mental energy to suffer for a team that might be just as bad as they always are again? I might lose that argument with myself sooner than I had hoped this year. Last night’s game has not been fun to write up. Am I fool for thinking this team ever be good? Eight losses in Nine games in November? I am too engaged to ever really be out but it’s not really fun to be in on these guys right now. At least the Bills won. Let’s Go Buffalo!

Thanks for Reading.

P.S. Like this post if you don’t want me to stop writing these. If you read this far each postgame you care about this blog. The Sabres are so bad right now I honestly don’t know if I want to keep doing this. Yikes.

#buffalo sabres #hockey #blog #NHL #chicago blackhawks

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tearful · 7 years

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amaranthine

title: amaranthine fandom: vanitas no carte rating: g relationship: louis/noé (can be read as gen if you want) word count: 1K notes: i've had wicked writers block for months so this is me exercising my brain and trying my best. i wanted to write something soft and with flowers and nothing is softer than boys giving each other flowers. i also have a bad headache, so sorry if you run across any mistakes. (read on ao3) summary:

Today Noé brings him a stem of carnations; the blossoms are large and deep red like an open wound.

Noé has picked up an odd habit, odd in the way that it feels unwarranted but not wholly strange.

On days when the sun warms the stones of grandfather's manor, and the other children aren't all vying for attention, Noé indulges in his new pass time with great eagerness. He'll disappear a little ways out into the forest that surrounds the manor, never too far lest he gets lost in the denser parts; perhaps he takes the path that's there to make things easier. Louis isn't sure because he chooses not to follow, prefers not to trek through dirt and thick foliage like the younger children. Besides, this is an activity Noé prefers to do alone, and those types of tasks are few and far between.

Noé will go into the forest, determined look set upon his face, and stay there long enough for Louis to easily get through a few chapters of whatever book he’s reading for the day. Noé rarely ever steps lightly, footfalls loud and the sound of crunching leaves and snapping branches noticeable even if he goes farther out on some days than on others. Louis will pretend to be annoyed by it, will screw up his face and sigh to himself even though there's no one around to see. In reality, he’s relieved by Noé’s heavy treading, means he can keep track of Noé even when he can't see him.

When Noé comes back, like he always does, he’ll find Louis no matter where he is in the manor. His arms will be laden with findings, and he’ll dump them on the ground between the two of them so Louis can look through as well.

“They’re for you.” Noé had said the first time he had presented the strange array of gifts, face scuffed with dirt and leaves sticking out of his hair.

Louis curled his nose slightly and said: “We have a garden.” Voice carrying a tone of confusion because suddenly getting a few wild flowers and a handful of berries wasn’t what he was expecting that day.

Noé gave him a look that he more than likely picked up from Dominique, sat right down, and said; “You already know what’s in the garden, so that’s no fun. Domi told me that all plants have meanings, so I was thinking maybe if I bring you different plants, you can figure out what they belong to and figure out the meanings like that. You have all sorts of books, I’m sure you can do it.”

Louis had stayed quiet for a few seconds before sighing. “Fine, since it’ll give me something to do.” And that was that.

Noé brings him many things after that day, like a small bird happily giving away gifts to a favored person. He mostly brings Louis wild flowers: from branches of dogwood flowers, to clusters of bishop’s lace and larkspurs, to small blooms of baby’s breaths and statice flowers. One day he even finds a water lily, presents it with a large smile on his face despite the fact that he’s soaked from the chest down and the wind was blowing something fierce that day. Louis didn’t even know there was another pond somewhere out on the property, but he accepted the gift anyway; however, not until after he told Noé not to go into ponds without someone with him.

It’s endearing, Louis thinks, but he’ll never admit it, never show how happy it really makes him feel outside of saying a simple thank you after he’s received the gifts. Noé is the first person to give him anything outside of Dominique, and Louis treasures that fact dearly. He even got his grandfather to teach him how to press flowers into bookmarks so he’s able to keep what can be salvaged and stores them in a drawer by his bedside when he doesn’t use them.

Louis knows he’s a walking tragedy waiting for his finale, and if clusters of wild flowers are enough to make him happy then that says something about himself (and his family) that he doesn’t have it in his heart to admit, even though he knows it as well as anything.

Today Noé brings him a stem of carnations; the blossoms are large and deep red like an open wound. He looks proud of himself for his find, smile on his face and eyes shining brightly. Fingers are wrapped delicately around the stem as he holds his gift out and waits for a verdict.

“Thank you.” Louis says and sets his book down, it’s a story of a boy that never grows old, never dies. He’s read it too many times to count.

He accepts the gift like he does all of them, gets ready to put it down to be looked at and pressed for later, but reconsiders. He snaps one of the flowers off the stem as gently as he can and indicates for Noé to step closer. Doesn’t think much about what he’s doing or why he’s doing it when he places the flower behind Noé’s ear. It’s a pretty sight, the stark red against the white of Noé’s hair and the white against the brown of his skin. It makes his eyes seem darker than they are, more amaranth than purple.

Louis feels his heart skip a beat.

“You can have that one,” Louis says simply and doesn’t think about what it means when his heart flutters like bird’s wings against his ribcage when he sees Noé’s expression change, all wide-eyed and moon bright. “don’t lose it.”

Noé is silent in his response, but the wonder in his expression doesn’t dim, it never does really. He’s at a loss for words, but Louis doesn’t know why, doesn’t know why giving a flower in return for the other gifts warrants such a response, such a guileless expression. Then again, he’s learning that Noé is a simple boy with simple pleasures; it doesn’t take much to make him excited about something, but Louis feels overwhelmed by the attention regardless.

Louis buries his nose back in his book so the flush he feels climbing up his cheeks isn’t visible. “Dominique is supposed to get here soon.” He says to change the subject. “You should clean up or go meet her at the gates.”

That seems to do the trick; Noé nods his head and flits off to do one of the two tasks, untucked shirttails fluttering behind him like a nightingale’s wings.

#vnc #vanitas no carte #noe archiviste #louis de sade #me: *latches onto the one character that has only been shown in 1 chapter and is dead*#where is the louis content #i'll make it all myself if i have to #this is my first fic of 2017 #would u look at that #my writing

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paradoxicalca · 5 years

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(OC) Don Cherry Drafts the Toronto Maple Leafs (An Alternate Reality)

(Previous parts of this series include: Tom Wilson-Proofing the Penguins, Dundon DIYs the Hurricanes, Re-Chiarelling the Oilers, Moneyballing the Sens, Covertly Tanking the Wild, and Frenchifying the Canadiens.)This is way longer than I thought it would be - turns out 2004 is longer ago than I thought.~~~~~~~~~~~Part INobody remembers exactly how it happened.According to the contract, it was the 20th of December, 2003. The Maple Leafs had just defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-2, their fourteenth consecutive game without a regulation loss. General Manager John Ferguson Jr. was riding high, and he didn't care who knew it. He was just months into his tenure with the Leafs and he was already almost certain to be the first GM to bring a Cup to Toronto in 36 years. So he decided to celebrate with friends and a few bottles of wine at the best restaurant he could think of: Wayne Gretzky's, just a few blocks away.Half-remembered through the haze of cigar smoke and wine, it was one of the best nights of Ferguson's life. The soirée was a who's who of hockey royalty - incredible stories were being passed around over freshly microwaved meatloaf and cheese-sprinkled nachos. But the life of the party was CBC's Don Cherry. He had regaled the group with anecdotes about Ferguson's father - "one of the toughest guys you'll ever see in the National Hockey League, and he could put pucks in the net! Ya don't see that much these days!" But he also had a lot of concerns with the direction the league and the Leafs had taken - drafting gutless players who'd never win a Cup like Alex Steen in the first round. "If I was in charge of scouting", he assured Ferguson, "teams wouldn't be excited to be playing the Leafs I tell ya!"The next morning, Ferguson awoke with a splitting hangover and checked his answering machine. Don's voice bellowed out:"Hey Johnny, glad we could work things out last night. I won't let you down I'll tell ya that much!"Ferguson had no idea what he was talking about until he received the email from Cherry's lawyer. Attached was a picture of a hand-written but impeccably worded contract with both men's signatures on it.The signing parties of this legally binding contract recognize the following stipulations: 1. That Mr. Donald Cherry be vested with the full and final power to decide who the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey club drafts in the first round of the National Hockey League entry draft. 2. That the Toronto Maple Leafs not trade their first round pick in the NHL Entry Draft without the express permission of Mr. Cherry. 3. That the Toronto Maple Leafs not trade players that Mr. Cherry has drafted without the express permission of Mr. Cherry. 4. That the existence of this contract not be disclosed to the public unless the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup or the contract is violated. 5. That the violation of the above stipulations will result in the payment of $50,000,000 CDN to the estate of Mr. Cherry. 6. That the above be valid each year for the remainder of Mr. Cherry's life, regardless of changes made to management or ownership. To their horror, the Leafs' lawyers could not figure out a way out of this. From that day on, Don Cherry was the most important scout the Leafs had.Part II2004While Cherry was tempted by the notion of receiving Brian Leetch from the Boston Bruins, he was keen to make a swift impact on the Leafs' future. With the 24th overall pick, the Leafs selected G David Shantz of the Mississauga Ice Dogs. When he asked if this pick was solely based on that fact that Shantz played for the OHL team Cherry owned, Ferguson was assured that Shantz is a beautiful kid and a hell of a goalie, and always willing to sacrifice the body to block shots.2005When the Leafs' scouting department told Cherry that they wanted to pick some Euro named Tooka Rask, he was amazed that a guy as smart as Ferguson had hired those morons. They wanted to pick a goalie outta Finland? Guy probably had never even faced a slapshot before! Not to mention that Shantzy was already their franchise goalie of the future. Instead they drafted a real big kid with #1 defenceman potential: D Matt Pelech, a 6'4 member of the Sarnia Sting. He may not be an offensive guy, but 74 penalty minutes in 31 games? This guy's a Hall of Famer in the making.2006The Leafs barely missed the playoffs, in large part due to bad goaltending. When Cherry heard that Ferguson had tried to trade Shantz to Boston for Andrew Raycroft he was mad. When he heard that his scouts wanted some guy named Yeery Taloosty outta Checkaslovakia he was furious. You gotta beautiful kid like LW Chris Stewart on the board and you're gonna take some wuss? Ridiculous.2007The backstabbing son of a bitch tried to do it again. What is it with Ferguson and these Finnish goalies? You wanna give up a first for Vensa Toksala? Unbelievable. He told Cherry that it was a shallow draft and that the pickings would be weak at 13th overall. Ya wanna call LW Colton Gillies weak to his face? Here's a beautiful kid, big kid, 6'4 207 with size and a hell of a shot, plays the game the right way, nephew of a good guy: Clark Gillies.2008Ferguson was fired in January, and Cliff Fletcher was hired as his interim replacement. The team finally had a top draft pick, and Cherry was ready for a fight. Luckily, everyone could agree that they had to pick up a beautiful kid named D Luke Schenn. He can hit, he'll drop the gloves, and his tendency to ice the puck will give Cherry plenty of opportunities to complain about touch icing on Coach's Corner.2009Chris Stewart, Luke Schenn, and Colton Gillies made their NHL debuts and boy did they look big out there. Viewers of Hockey Night in Canada wondered why Cherry was constantly advocating ferociously for the Maple Leafs to call up David Shantz from the ECHL. New general manager Brian Burke, when informed by his predecessor of the Cherry contract, was completely non-perturbed until he realized it would stop him from trading away first round picks.The 7th overall pick demands real reflection: so many beautiful kids available. You got Jared Cowen, Zack Kassian outta Windsor - now there's a guy who stands up to his teammates. And then there's Kadri. TALK ABOUT HEART this kid is a hardworker, gets to the tough areas, God love ya. Cherry decides to let Burke take C Nazem Kadri.2010No way in hell is Don gonna let Burke trade those precious picks for some American guy who doesn't even defend. The Leafs, led in scoring by Chris Stewart, finish second last in the NHL. Brian Burke invests a full month trying to convince Cherry to let him take Tyler Saygenn. But it's no use. Sure Seygen's flashy, and Cherry's sure he's a nice kid, mum and dad raised him well, but when you've got D Erik Gudbranson on the board you're taking the 6'5 defenceman every day of the week.2011Another big season by Chris Stewart keeps the Leafs out of the basement but the rebuild continues. By the end of the season they end up with the 7th overall pick. Cherry tells the scouts he's considering two players: Sam Couttserier and Dougie Hamilton. The scouts try to sell him on the Bathurst product but it was never really in doubt: Hamilton is a beautiful kid, plays the game right, big shot from the point, 6"6, and plays for the Ice Dogs. D Dougie Hamilton is the guy. Fortunately for Hamilton, his parents unwittingly helped his career prospects by concealing his love of reading and museums from Cherry when they met at the CHL Top Prospects Game. Cherry also fully supports Burke's picks of RW Tyler Biggs and D Stuart Percy.2012At this point, Cherry can hardly watch a Leafs game without bursting into tears at the beauty of it. Kadri and Stewart at forward, Schenn, Phaneuf, and Gudbranson on defence. Sure the team is absolutely terrible, but they're losing the right way. The Leafs end up with the 3rd overall pick, and appear poised to draft talented centre Alex Galchneeyuck. Instead they pick up a real good guy: D Griffin Reinhart.2013With Stewart falling off a cliff and no offensive star to replace him, the Leafs do not make the playoffs in 2013. Instead, they draft LW Max Domi at 10th overall, good kid from a great family, an absolute beauty, you know his dad, his dad always left it all out on the ice, still a good friend, loves the troops, good stuff! The scouts don't even bother trying to talk him into taking a Russian guy named Valerie.2014Shanahan is now in charge and is furious that nobody mentioned this arrangement to him before he promised fans a full rebuild. William Neelander was never gonna be Cherry's guy. It's LW Nick Ritchie. He’s 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds. Only three players scored more than this guy. He is tough. He can score. He has beautiful hands. Leafs have enough weak wingers.2015The Maple Leafs take a guy with size and skill D Noah Hanifin with the 4th overall pick, and Cherry almost dissociates at the thought of drafting an American over a beautiful Ontario kid like Marner.2016The Leafs finally bottom out. Shanahan begs Cherry to take a guy from the Southern USA who plays in friggin Switzerland of all places, Austin Matthews, 1st overall instead of LW Matthew Tkachuk. Beautiful kid, and what a family I tell ya what I REMEMBER yknow Keith now there's a hockey player they send him down to the desert, what a disgrace, there's a great player!2017With the 10th overall pick, the Leafs take D Cal Foote, big kid from a beautiful family, his dad, Adam, big friend of the show, always finished his checks, and that's why, yknow that's why he's got those rings! These goofs really wanted some girly looking Euro called Timoth Linegren, forget about it. Cherry is really starting to hate these hippy pinkos in charge of the Leafs.2018Leafs go off the board and select C Ryan McLeod outta Mississauga in the mid-1st round instead of trading down for Rasma Sandy (again with the Swedes? It's a nice place to visit sure but quit sending us hockey players!). John Tavares chooses to sign with the San Jose Sharks, a contender, instead of the mediocre Leafs. Desperate for a 2nd pair left defenceman, the Leafs sign Jack Johnson to a 5 year, 4 million AAV contract.EpilogueThe Maple Leafs now have this lineup :Matthew Tkachuk - Max Domi - Zach Hyman Patrick Marleau - Nazem Kadri - Andreas Johnsson Tyler Ennis - Brandon Leipsic - Josh Leivo Tyler Biggs - Dominic Moore - Leo Komarov Noah Hanifin - Dougie Hamilton Jack Johnson - Erik Gudbranson Griffin Reinhart - Luke Schenn Fredrik Andersen Garret Sparks Shanahan decides that enough is enough. Bringing his new General Manager Kyle Dubas with him, he summons Cherry for a meeting in the Maple Leafs war room. Grapes mockingly wears a pink three piece suit dotted with Shanahan's face."Don, we're here to negotiate. We need to get out of this contract.""Oh THAT'S what this is about then eh? Ya need more Swedes and Soviets out there? That's not how ya win a Cup!""We're willing to offer you 25 million dollars in cash right now to void the agreement."After a couple minutes of thinking, Cherry realizes that could buy every team in the QMJHL and fold them for that money. "Awright ya punks, you gotta deal. But these team's goin' nowhere if you pack it full of Euros and weaklings." He stares directly at Dubas and barks "Kids, you gotta always keep your head up out there or you're gonna get hit""Are you threatening him?""He knows I'm kiddin' around! I swear, these guys out here, can't take a joke anymore. Ya know Shanny, you were a real good player hard in the corners good Irish kid God love ya. Dunno why ya went so soft."Shanahan shakes his head "Don, the game's changed. You need speed and skill, not just big tough guys out there to win. It's not like when you were playing anymore."Don gets up and walks towards the door, but turns around before leaving. The old man's face is as orange as the jersey Bobby Clarke used to wear, now there's a player, eat your heart out yknow when we used to play the Flyers ya had to watch out for that guy because he's small sure but what a warrior he'd drop the gloves no questions asked. He has tears in his eyes."Yeah whatever Shanny. This isn't the first time I've gotten in trouble for putting too many men on the ice."~~~~~~~~~~~~~Next time: The Islanders accidentally give Mike Milbury a second chance. (OC) Don Cherry Drafts the Toronto Maple Leafs (An Alternate Reality) Source

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: Trouba, Parise, Sergachev, Klingberg, Domi & TBay Chasing History (April 3)

The season is quickly winding down. Several playoff series are already locked into place, division titles have been decided, and teams are dressing lineups with that in mind. Look no further than Calgary to see the results of a team shutting it down.

This was heading into Monday night’s game.

At optional morning skate at Staples Center. As Brad Treliving told the boys this morning, no Backlund, Tkachuk, Giordano, Brodie, Hamonic, or Hanifin tonight vs. LA.

Bennett, Quine, Fantenberg, Kylington, Stone, and Valimaki will all come in. #Flames

— Pat Steinberg (@Fan960Steinberg) April 1, 2019

If your league still plays meaningful games in the final week of the regular season, this should be enough evidence to convince them otherwise.

Tuesday night still offered some matchups with repercussions though. The Wild took on the Jets in a true must-win game. A loss by Minnesota or an Avalanche victory would result in their elimination from the second season. That was all the motivation they needed. Minny jumped out to a 4-0 lead and never looked back, defeating their Central division rivals 5-1.

Zach Parise scored two goals and Devan Dubnyk made 29 stops.

It’s been a terrific late-career jump by Parise. The total now sits at 28 goals and 61 points for the 34-year-old. This is also as healthy as he’s been in the last six campaigns. Don’t expect this to be replicated in 2019-20.

Jacob Trouba continued to skate on the top power-play unit despite Dustin Byfuglien getting his legs under him after missing a couple of months. Trouba scored the lone goal for the Jets – a shorthanded tally.

There it is!

: @JacobTrouba : @BiggieFunke

4-1 MIN | #GoJetsGo | #WPGvsMIN pic.twitter.com/ahcGvgNJLS

— x – Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) April 3, 2019

The soon-to-be RFA will once again be a topic of discussion this offseason. The Jets will need to make some changes as their cap structure shifts with Patrik Laine (RFA), Kyle Connor (RFA), and Tyler Myers (UFA) also in need of new deals this summer. It will be interesting to see if the Jets can manage to lock him down to a long-term deal after consecutive bridge-deals, or if the trade-market finally opens up for the 25-year-old.

Blake Wheeler recorded his 70th assist of the season on Trouba’s goal. That set a new franchise record, passing Marc Savard’s 69 apples from the 2005-06 season with the Atlanta Thrashers.

So how did the Avs do? Well, they allowed two first-period tallies by the Oilers in a cruel attempt to give the Wild hope before rattling off six straight to win 6-2.

Alex Kerfoot potted two goals, Tyson Barrie had a goal and an assist, and Semyon Varlamov stopped 27 for the victory. It was just the second start in over two weeks for Varlamov as the Avs look more and more comfortable rolling Philipp Grubauer.

I know which goalie I’ll want next season.

Speaking of netminders, Mikko Koskinen started on back-to-back nights despite the Oilers being eliminated on Monday. This was his 24th start in the last 25 games – the one he missed was due to illness. He has a 0.904 save percentage over that period. Not exactly world-beating.

It will be difficult to see a path to the post-season for the Oilers next season if they return with the same defence corps and masked men.

The Stars defeated the Flyers in a similar 6-2 fashion to punch their ticket to the post-season. They’re one of the few teams who doesn’t know their opponent yet, as the Blues, Preds and Jets could all still pluck the Central Division title.

Alex Radulov scored two goals and two assists to extend his point streak to six games and 10 points. The 32-year-old is just two behind his career-high 72 from a season ago, but he’s done so in 14 fewer games. This is one vet that I’m okay buying in on next season. Dallas rides the big horses and that won’t be changing next year. Another 70-point season seems very doable.

John Klingberg recorded two assists to bring his total to 44 in 62 contests. The 26-year-old has been something of a forgotten man in the elite defender conversation this year due to those missed games. But his 58-point pace is nothing to sneeze at.

He should still be considered a top-10 D heading into drafts next fall.

Nashville defeated Buffalo 3-2 to help drive the tank further for the Sabres. Since the deadline, Buffalo is a league-worst 2-15-2. That includes zero regulation wins, five games without a goal, and being outscored 78-37.

These dudes know how to improve their lottery odds.

Do you know who doesn’t know how to improve their lottery odds? The Canucks. Despite long being out of it, Vancouver finished up their home schedule with a 4-2 victory over the Sharks. It was their third win in a row.

Tanner Pearson potted two goals for the home team. However, no one cares about that. You all just want the Quinn Hughes highlights, and I’ve got you.

https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/04/Hughes-to-BB.mp4

Hughes will be on the top unit next season and his presence will go a long way in vaulting Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and the Canucks offence to another level in 2019-20 and beyond.

Get him early in your keeper drafts next year.

Oh yeah, Martin Jones was poor in this one once again. The Sharks have the worst save percentage in the league (0.888). Will anyone really be surprised if San Jose is quickly dispatched by the Golden Knights in the first round?

I sure won’t be.

The Lightning took on the Habs with a chance to make some history. They came into the night with an eye on their 61st win of the season. That would move them into sole possession of the second-most in NHL history. Nikita Kucherov was aiming to make some history of his own too. His 86 assists are just one shy of Jaromir Jagr’s all-time record by a winger. That blows my mind.

Unfortunately, for fans in South Florida, neither managed to happen on Tuesday evening.

The Habs desperately needed to keep pace with the recently surging Blue Jackets and found a way against the NHL’s best, outshooting the Lightning 45-24 and winning 4-2. Artturi Lehkonen produced the game-winning goal, an assist and five shots on net.

Meanwhile, Max Domi scored his 28th goal and his 71st point of the campaign. Domi hasn’t ever really been considered a goal-scorer. However, the seven percent conversion rate he played at for the 140 games before being dealt to Montreal seemed mighty low.

Unfortunately, its a buyer beware situation as his 14.5 percent clip this year seems a touch high. His shot volume has improved from a career-average of <2 shots per contest to the 2.5 he’s put on net this season. If he can maintain a similar volume next season, but with the expected regression in conversion rate, we can pencil Domi in for 20-22 goals next season and around 60-points.

I won’t be drafting him for too much more than that next fall.

No Victor Hedman in this one as the Norris contender is out with an upper-body injury. We don’t yet know the extent of the ailment and whether it will limit his availability in the post-season next week.

With him on the shelf, Mikhail Sergachev was seeing top-four minutes at even-strength and practiced on the team’s top power-play unit. Unfortunately, the Bolts didn’t draw a penalty in this one. Sergachev skated 22:14 with a shot, three blocks and five hits. He could be a nice sleeper pull in playoff pools if Hedman misses real time.

Montreal’s victory brought them into a tie with Columbus who took on Boston on Tuesday. Joonas Korpisalo got the nod but quickly got the hook as he allowed two goals on the first five shots. That was all the head starts the Bs needed as they cruised to a 6-2 victory.

Jake DeBrusk scored two and added an assist to bring his totals to 27 goals and 41 points in 66 games. He’s producing legitimate top-six metrics in his second season and you’d have to expect there is more to come.

He sees top power-play deployment on a high-end team. He has developed nice chemistry to David Krejci on line two, and despite a conversion rate that will likely slip next season, he’s displaying an ability to find the back of the net on a consistent basis. The breakout may not be next season, but I see a 65-point season in his future.

Arizona laid a big old egg against the Kings losing 3-1 and basically ended their hope of a post-season appearance. They’ll need to win their final two games against Vegas and Winnipeg in regulation, and see Colorado lose their final two games against Winnipeg and San Jose in regulation.

Unlikely.

It’s been a nice run for the Coyotes; something to build on for next season. But good intentions don’t bring in playoff gates, and this organization needs those in a bad way.

Follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-trouba-parise-sergachev-klingberg-domi-tbay-chasing-history-april-3/

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paradoxicalca · 5 years

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(OC) Dundon DIYs the Hurricanes (An Alternate Reality)

(Previous parts of this series include: Re-Chiarelling the Oilers, Moneyballing the Sens, Covertly Tanking the Wild, and Frenchifying the Canadiens.)Part I"Okay losers listen up!"This wasn't the first time team owner Tom Dundon had greeted the Carolina Hurricanes' analytics department this way, but they did not know that this was the first time he had gotten the office number right on his first try. After a long season the marketing department and janitors were no longer taken aback by these frequent interruptions."I've just had a brilliant idea. No doubt we had a good season last year, couple sell outs, good shit all around. But we gotta bring it to the next level okay? Now answer this question: what sells in sports?"One brave analyst answered: "Winning?" "Superstars?" offered another.Dundon shook his head in disbelief. "What? No, sex, you nerds, ever have it? Sex sells. We've got eyeballs on these games now but to get people really caring about this team we need to get a full roster of real dimes. Handsome motherfuckers. What do hockey players call attractive people?"A pause."Sir, none of us have actually played hockey before.""I think the guys on Letterkenny call them rockets?"Dundon clapped and pointed at him. "Alright, there we go, we need more rockets in our locker room than fucking NASA." Then he turned around, kicked over a garbage can, and disappeared through the door.The analytics department wasted no time in devising algorithms and stats to quantify player attractiveness. Very quickly a vicious divide emerged between two measurements: the Cool or Rugged Sexiness Indicator (CORSI) and the Foxiness-Expressing Number which Indexes Cute Kings (FENWICK). It all came down to type and preference: CORSI adherents argued for strong, bearded, often Canadian players, while FENWICK fanatics extolled the virtues of prettier players, usually non-threatening Scandinavians. It was eventually acknowledged that these met at the Strapping, Handsome and Rather Pretty (SHARP) intersection, but nonetheless conflict still raged. After a day of furious debate it was decided that they would deliver Dundon a roster split between the three categories:Filip Forsberg (+6.5 FENWICK) - Tyler Seguin (+3.5 SHARP) - Brock Boeser (+4.7 SHARP) Gabriel Landeskog (+8.5 FENWICK) - Adam Henrique (+3.7 CORSI) - Leon Draisaitl (+5.6 SHARP) Tom Wilson (+4.3 CORSI) - Alex Wennberg (+7.5 FENWICK) - Blake Wheeler (+3.8 CORSI) Marcus Foligno (+3.4 CORSI) - Elias Lindholm (+5.6 FENWICK) - Andre Burakovsky (+3.4 FENWICK) Roman Josi (+7.4 FENWICK) - Erik Karlsson (+6.8 FENWICK) Shea Weber (+4.5 CORSI) - Kris Letang (+7.2 SHARP) Brady Skjei (+4.6 SHARP) - Erik Gudbranson (+3.9 CORSI) Henrik Lundqvist (+8.2 SHARP) Braden Holtby (+3.6 CORSI) Proud of themselves, but feeling somewhat uncomfortable, the analytics team printed out this list and called Dundon to come back and retrieve it.When he arrived he looked at it and smiled "Great work, alright, and this algorithm is all loaded on the computer over there?""Yes sir""Okay great, thanks guys, you're fired, best wishes"As each of the analysts grumpily gathered their laptops and Funko Pops into cardboard boxes and left PNC Arena, Dundon folded the list into a paper airplane and yelled "Hey Don! You still work for me?"The veteran manager walked into the office. "Yes, Tom, I still do."Dundon fired the paper airplane directly at Waddell's forehead and it fell to the floor. "This is a list of players, I'm gonna need you to trade for these guys ASAP, got it?"Waddell muttered through gritted teeth something like "...never in Atlanta...""Oh yeah you turtle-looking motherfucker? Well why don't you go and work for them then? You're fired, fuckface."By the end of the day, Dundon had fired everyone he could find in the building. Then he sat down at the computer that had the handsomeness algorithm loaded onto it. Google Chrome was open. These fuckers had been using the internet at work? He wished he could fire them again. But he noticed the website on the screen."What the hell is HFBoards?"_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Part IIThis site was incredible - Dundon didn't realize there were so many hockey fans. But here they all were, speculating on rumours, constructing rosters, and, most incredibly, proposing trades. He had been paying out the ass all year for front office staff and yet there were thousands of people on this website coming up with trades for free. He felt like a kid on Christmas morning - receiving gifts without having to give anything to anyone else. He completely forgot about the handsomeness list he'd asked for just a few hours before.Just then a social media intern who had been in the washroom when he dismissed the rest of her department poked her head into the room. Dundon immediately tried to fire her (he knew how to use Twitter, why was he paying someone to do it?) but it turned out she actually wasn't getting paid anything. So he recruited her to a new project."I need you to record every trade proposal our fans have made on this website this summer."And she did.1. Justin Faulk for Antti Raanta 2. James Riemer for Martin Jones (1 million retained) 3. Warren Foegele and a 2nd for Nikita Gusev "That's it? Alright well hold on, I'll get these done quick then."But when he called that lanky dork in Arizona whose name he couldn't remember and offered him the first deal, he was hung up on immediately. The same thing happened twice more."What the hell is going on?""Well," the intern started, "it seems like our fans might overvalue our players a bit.""We made the fucking third round, all our players should have value out the ass! How am I supposed to know how much I can get for these guys?""Well, there's a kind of thread on this forum called 'Value Of:' where you name a player and people tell you what they'd be willing to trade for them.""Perfect, make one of those and I'll start hitting the phones."Edmonton Oilers @OilersNHLTRADE ALERT: The #Oil acquire D Dougie Hamilton from the #Canes in exchange for Jesse Puljujarvi and Kris RussellToronto Maple Leafs @MapleLeafs#Sportschek Transaction Alert: Maple Leafs have acquired D Brett Pesce, RW Teuvo Teravainen, and C Martin Necas from the Hurricanes in exchange for RW Mitch Marner"This is so easy, no one's even trying to negotiate with me! I can't believe I kept that old fuck around for so long."Montreal Canadiens @CanadiensMTLWELCOME TO MONTREAL @SebastianAho!#Habs receive C @SebastianAho in exchange for C Max Domi, D Cale Fleury, and a 2020 1st.Les #Habs reçoivent Sebastian Aho en échange de Max Domi, Cale Fleury et un choix de 1er ronde.Vancouver Canucks @sabresWE HAVE A TRADE TO ANNOUNCE #GoCanucksGoCanucks have acquired RW Andrei Svechnikov from @NHLCanes in exchange for D Chris Tanev and a 2020 2nd round pickBuffalo Sabres @sabresSabres have acquired D Jaccob Slavin from CAR for RW Sam ReinhartPittsburgh Penguins @penguinsThe Penguins have acquired D Trevor van Riemsdyk for D Jack Johnson #letsgopensEpilogueThat fall, the fans at PNC Arena thought they were buying tickets to hockey games, but what they got was even more impressive: a one-man show. They would hear Tom Dundon announce the starting lineups ("Why am I playing some asshole to read a script?") and sing the national anthem. ("This isn't a fucking talent show, and people say I have a great voice.") They'd see him run up and down the aisles serving popcorn and drinks, and even interact with children as the new mascot ("Look kid, you want a fuckin' high five or not? Okay, quit hugging me you fuckin' perv."). Long after the games were done, an exhausted Dundon could be found sweeping up trash. It almost wasn't worth it. But at the end of the night, when he looked at the balance sheet and the single employee expense - the NHL had refused his request to drive the Zamboni himself - he was filled with a quiet comfort.As the team tumbled down the standings, Dundon barely noticed. He didn't have much time to watch the games anyway, and he only looked at the scoreboard when one of the pixels went out and he had to fix it. But there came a point, with the season finally done, when he realized that he had barely had a second of free time all year. His hair was turning white from a lack of sleep. Worst of all, there hadn't been anyone to fire in months. But then he realized something else. As he walked into the bathroom with a mop, he stared at his gaunt face in the mirror, took a deep breath and whispered"You're fired"He suddenly felt an exhilarating freedom wash over him. Then he put down his mop, walked outside, breathed in fresh air for the first time in what felt like a lifetime, and just began to walk. He was never seen again.Next time: Jim Rutherford decides to deal with his Tom Wilson problem once and for all. (OC) Dundon DIYs the Hurricanes (An Alternate Reality) Source

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: Pastrnak Returns, Barkov Rolls On, & Scoring is Up and It Is Spectacular (March 20)

In a pivotal Eastern Conference battle, the Canadiens and Flyers met in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening. Montreal came into the contest losers of two straight and with just four points in their last six games. That run was pushing them closer to the 10th place, Flyers than the eighth-place, Blue Jackets.

Carey Price and Carter Hart both came to play, but it was the Habs who jumped out to a 2-0 lead half-way through the contest. Brendan Gallagher’s 31st of the year tied his previous career-best set a season ago, while Shea Weber converted his 12th tally. Sean Couturier got the Flyers on the board in the final frame on a power-play marker, but Max Domi sealed it into the empty net with under 90 seconds to play.

The win pulled the Habs to within a single point of Columbus for the final Wild Card spot but CBJ had a contest with the Flames later in the evening.

Let’s just jump right into that one to keep the suspense from building too high.

Calgary came into the night leaders of the West with 95 points despite being just 5-5-0 in their previous 10 games. They fell behind early in this one after Zach Werenski scored his 11th, but tallied the next three and never looked back. Dave Rittich stopped 33 of 35 to record his fourth straight victory. The loss leaves CBJ clinging to that final Wild Card spot.

Remember when Freddie Andersen was one of the best fantasy netminders? Yeah, neither do I. The Danish puck-stopper has been flipping the bird to his owners during the fantasy playoffs for the better part of two weeks. Heading into a Tuesday night matchup with the Preds, he had allowed 14 goals in three games.

He and the Maple Leafs were desperately looking to stop the skid, but it wasn’t to be. Brian Boyle gave the Predators a 1-0 lead at 4:47 of the first period. Wayne Simmonds boosted the Predators a 2-0 lead at 9:13 of the third period. Filip Forsberg scored an empty-net goal to make it 3-0.

Kyle Turris returned to the lineup after being a healthy scratch the previous two contests. He skated just 11:30 on the fourth line.

Ben Bishop returned from a brief injury stint to try and rekindle his shutout-streak. He was going up against a red-hot Sasha Barkov and the Florida Panthers so it was going to be a tough task.

The shutout streak ended just two minutes into the contest, lasting a total of 233:04. Not too shabby though. And of course, it was Barkov who found the back of the net – his first of two goals on the evening. The 22-year-old is absolutely feeling it these days.

{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sasha Barkov is on another planet right now. He has 17 points over his current 7-game streak. <br><br>He’s set career-highs for goals (32), assists (53), and points (85). <br><br>And there’s still 9 games left to be played. </p>— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hockey_Robinson/status/1108192231041589248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2019</a></blockquote>

He’s one of the most underrated players in the game today. Barkov has just six total penalty minutes while averaging 22:28 per contest. That mark trails only Connor McDavid (23:03) and Leon Draisaitl (22:36) as the Oilers ride their only horses right into the dirt.

The best is yet to come for the Finnish pivot.

Bishop and the Stars weren’t shaken by the early goal against. The top line took over from there, with Jamie Benn (1+2), Alex Radulov (2+1), and Tyler Seguin (0+4) combining for 10 points. The Stars took this one 4-2 and are now five points up on the Wild and looking set to rejoin the playoff picture.

Here is a look at the Stars' stats since the infamous 'horseshit' comments by the team's CEO:

Tuukka Rask recorded what might have been the easiest shutout of his career. The Finnish netminder turned aside just 13 shots as the Bruins blanked the Islanders 5-0 on Tuesday evening.

The big news in this one was the return of David Pastrnak. After missing nearly six weeks with an injured thumb, the 22-year-old was back to his old spot on the top line next to Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. He skated 14:19 with three shots on goal. That entire line was rested as this one was never in doubt.

There were reports that Jake DeBrusk would miss this game due to injury, but he managed to dress and buried his 23rd of the campaign. As expected, Danton Heinen lost his cushy spot in the top six and was skating on the left side of Sean Kurlay – who happened to pot two markers in this game, and Chris Wagner.

Heinen nabbed an assist in this one, but skating on the third line doesn’t present a lot of reasons to expect the production to continue.

The Penguins received a massive boon as Kris Letang returned to the lineup after missing nearly a month. The team’s top blueliner didn’t miss a beat as he scored a goal, recorded four shots, 12 penalty minutes and skated a team-high 26:45. Jake Guentzel continued his terrific season by posting a goal – his 37th of the season, and an assist. The 24-year-old may be clicking on 18.7 percent of his shots this season, but he is no stranger to high conversion rates.

Here’s a tweet from the tail-end of his rookie season in 2016-17

{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In 88 combined regular season & playoff games this season in AHL/NHL, Jake Guentzel has scored 46 goals on 209 shots (22% rate). <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Penguins?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Penguins</a></p>— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hockey_Robinson/status/865357948322586624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 19, 2017</a></blockquote>

There aren’t too many players I would feel comfortable projecting to hang around the high-teens for conversion rates; Guentzel is one of them. His living next to Sid doesn’t hurt that one bit.

It wasn’t enough though, as the Pens fell 3-2 to the Canes in a shootout. Carolina is now two points back of the Pens for the third spot in the Metro. They have two games in hand.

Of note, Sebastian Aho led all skaters with 28:27 – including 3:54 in overtime. That’s a career-high for the 21-year-old.

Petr Mrazek stopped 33 of 35 to record his sixth quality start in his last seven starts. He’s battled all the way back to a .909 save percentage on the season. Not bad for a throwaway.

The Caps waltzed through the Devils 4-1 on Tuesday. But to be fair, nearly everyone does that to New Jersey these days. Their roster is a who’s who of AHL players and they lost Kyle Palmieri to injury in the first frame. He did not return.

The tank is rolling deep.

Phoenix Copley made 20 saves, Brett Connolly scored a goal and an assist, and Alex Ovechkin recorded the rare no-shot game.

In a battle between two not-very-good teams, Jimmy Howard made 41 stops to help the Red Wings defeat the Rangers 3-2 at Madison Square Gardens.

Fresh off of signing his first professional contract, and receiving the BIG10 Conference Player of the Year Award, Taro Hirose skated in his first NHL contests. He grabbed an assist on Frans Nielsen’s first-period goal.

Andreas Athanasiou scored two goals to give him five in his previous four games and 28 on the campaign.

Jaden Schwartz scored three and added a helper, David Perron chipped in with two goals and an assist as the Blues feasted on the Oilers 7-2. Jordan Binnington made just 15 saves to improve his record to 18-4-1 with a 0.930 save percentage.

McDavid saw his eight-game, multi-point, and 12-game point streaks come to an end.

We all know scoring is up. But just how high is remarkable. Let’s take a gander at the five seasons prior to this one and see how the quality and quantity of production has fluctuated. To keep things simple when comparing to 2018-19, I’ve set the games played minimum at 55.

Way back in 2013-14, we witnessed 11 skaters record a point-per-game or better. Sidney Crosby led the way with 1.30 points-per-game. Four skaters played at a 90-point pace or better. 2014-15 saw eight skaters break the point-per-game mark with Jamie Benn leading the way with 87-points.

2015-16 slipped even further. Just seven skaters played at the point-per-game pace. Patty Kane ran away with the Art Ross with his 106 points. No other skater played at a 90-point-pace. 2016-17 was nearly identical. Eight skaters at or above the point-per-game mark, with McDavid the only triple-digit producer, and Crosby the only other player to play above a 90-point pace.

Last season we began to see a shift for the good. A whopping 24 skaters clicked above the point-per-game mark. We had three 100-plus point seasons from McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Claude Giroux. Meanwhile, we had eight others produce at or above the 90-point threshold.

The good times have certainly continued to roll in 2018-19. With just 10 games remaining on the schedule for most clubs, we have 35 players above the point-per-game mark. We have already witnessed three players crack the 100-point barrier, and seven more are on pace to join them by early April.

Kucherov is on pace to record the most points in a campaign since Teemu Selanne dropped 132 back in 1991-92.

2017-18’s 2.97 average goals-per-game represented the highest mark since the 2005-06 season when penalty calls were… actually called on a regular basis thanks to the lockout. This season has taken it a step further with a 3.03 goal-per-game average.

We’re not back to the four-goal average we saw in 1981-82 (I use the word ‘saw’ loosely as I wasn’t even a glimmer in my papa’s eye at that point), but we are slowly crawling back to the gaudy totals of the early 1990s before the clutch and grab era took over. And it’s not due to the referees calling things either. The league has steadily slowed it’s power-play opportunities from a high-water mark of 5.85-per-game in 2005-06 to the 2.98 we’re seeing this season.

What’s the difference? Well, teams are shooting a bit more. But what’s really driving things can only be explained by an increase in performance. The young talent that enters the game on a yearly basis has made life very difficult on oppositions coaches and goaltenders. Let’s push to embrace this style, and push for more power-plays in the future. One day, I’d like to draft a player who has a legit chance at posting 150-plus points.

Dare to dream, people. Dare to dream.

Follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-pastrnak-returns-barkov-rolls-on-scoring-is-up-and-it-is-spectacular-march-20/

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andrewuttaro · 5 years

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New Look Sabres: GM 23 - MTL - Convincing Complete

Is it accurate to call the Montreal Canadiens a rival? In the bare bones sense of them being in the same division and therefore a divisional rival it certainly would seem so, but really? The two teams have not met in a playoff series since the late 1990s and have somehow rarely been good at the same time. As is plainly clear with fans of any team, especially the Canadian-based ones, the Habs are the team to hate for their general snootiness about their hockey. But what axe to grind do the Sabres of Buffalo, NY have with them? Perhaps the plain and boring answer is just repetition and familiarity. The Habs fans filing into the arena every time they’re in town feels like a less clean version of the Leafs invasions. I digress; the way the Sabres have played the Habs this season has been a pace-maker tester every time. I watched the ending minutes of this game on my in-laws toilet and that felt like the right place given the intensity of this matchup as of late. This wild win streak began against Montreal but long before the win streak the Sabres met the Canadiens in October in what was quite a battle as well. This game stood as the opportunity to get three straight wins against hated rival (?) Montreal. It was also an opportunity to extend a seven game winning streak that already puts this Blue and Gold team in special company in franchise history up to eight straight.

Admittedly I was engaged in family affairs during this game. I am good Sabres fan though and I checked the score regularly, even turning on the stream when it seemed appropriate. Buffalo came out on a hometown high of goodwill still welling up from last game and the excitement of the crowd present. They got an edge in shots even a Tage Thompson shot that very nearly beat Antti Niemi in the first. It was Casey Mittelstadt who broke the ice who broke the ice at 12:39 on a rebounded Conor Sheary shot. It’s good to see Casey scoring more and it’s nice to begin to get the feel that this top six might be solid. Those two obviously have been doing well but Kyle Okposo who we feared would never be the same player last season has really gotten into a great way of things on that second line wing. Speaking of guys making their way into relevance again I mentioned Tage Thompson earlier but it’s worth repeating his name. He got how many GOOD shots on goal in this game? He didn’t get onto the score sheet but it’s almost as if he’s listened to some of the junk out there about him. He’s come around and is going to contribute: if not regularly now, then in time he will. Writing off this guy is not smart at this juncture. The second period saw a Montreal resurgence because the Sabres got to stink in one period right? Late in the period Canadiens Brendan Gallagher muscled a puck in past Carter Hutton that ended up getting called back for kicking it in. Gallagher wouldn’t be denied evidently and at 18:12 of the second period got his goal on rush. You probably don’t want Montreal native Nathan Beaulieu dropping to his knees defending that play but it was good shot either way. The game was even 1-1.

The third period delivered some suspense that perhaps made you think about this winning streak in a new way. Montreal saw a morale booster win in front of them and pursued it. Jason Pominville got called for a weak holding penalty and Andrew Shaw would get credit for tapping in a David Schlemko shot on the ensuing powerplay to get the visitors up 2-1. The Sabres fought back but this game was getting long in the tooth in this period and one begins wonder if the win streak would end with who started with. We need to talk about Buffalo as a hockey city but we’ll save that for after the recap. There was less than three minutes left in regulation when Jeff Skinner batted in the juiciest rebound on the Thanksgiving leftovers day and tied it up. This one went to overtime. I sat perched on my in-laws toilet enjoying the stream at this point with some excitement. The Sabres dominated possession in the extra frame and possession in 3-on-3 hockey means a lot. Max Domi got called for slashing on Rasmus Ristolainen as he barreled in for a shot and the Sabres were on a 4-on-3 powerplay that just completely hemmed in the Habs. Tick tack toe passing a shot, a scramble in front of the net and who other than Jeff Skinner shot that puck through the net-crashing chaos to give Buffalo the Overtime win. 3-2 Buffalo, this win streak goes onto Christ’s number 8. One goal wins over the Habs maybe one of my favorite features of this season so far. For a brief shining moment this evening the Sabres were even top of the Eastern Conference. How about that?

So let’s talk; about two things: Buffalo Hockey and Jeff Skinner. Buffalo Hockey: so on Wednesday night friends and family were in town to see a Sabres team that swept a Western swing that looked to be something to behold. It was six wins in a row at that point including a couple at home. Chris “The Bulldog” Parker talked with Sal Capachio on that radio station your dumbest Sabres twitter follow says doesn’t talk about the Sabres enough before that Wednesday game about just what it meant for them to win that game. A couple home wins on a week like this after wins like that after years of the relative shitshow this team has been would win back hearts and minds. I reflected that sentiment after that Thanksgiving eve win. I bring it up again because there are two kinds of special: the kind when your team is special because they’re such a friggin good hockey team and the kind of special when your City and region is just so very behind them. In 2007 the Sabres had both. In 2018 I think we only have one so far. This team is special again as Buffalo and Western New York rally back behind a team that has really sucked for a while. The home market convincing is complete. The advanced stats still point to a Sabres team that is not exactly dominating in many categories and that’s worth noting. Don’t mourn too much when this win streak ends because while it is underlining a new, winning culture, it is not indicative of a team in Cup contention just yet. That said, Dom Luszczyszyn (yes, that is how his name is spelled) at the Athletic along with several other respected hockey reporters like Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman are not labeling this team an flash in the pan. They’re saying this level of play is for real even if the win streak or the place in the standings comes back down to earth a little.

We also got to talk about Jeff Skinner. With his two goal night tonight he took over possession of the league lead in goals. The rumor of him asking for 9.5 million over 7 or 8 years is at worst a starting point for negotiation and at best flatly untrue. No need to debate the truthfulness of that claim, it is what it is. What I do want to say is DO NOT LET HIM WALK. To all you prognosticators who are asking everyone to rein in the urge to call for a blank check for the guy check yourselves before you wreck yourselves: this guy is the best case scenario for an Eichel winger. He may be playing better than normal in a contract year but take a minute to think about this team minus Jeff Skinner. No matter how you cut it, it’s simply not as pretty a picture. I don’t anticipate the final number being near 9.5; yes we have to be aware of our salary cap in spite of how decent it looks to 2021. But a Jeff Skinner contract is the Sabres organization’s NUMBER ONE priority off the ice. If you think anything less than signing this guy is acceptable you are simply fucking wrong. Fight me.

You may be wondering why I didn’t bring up that little Lawrence Pilut call up fiasco. Don’t you worry, that will be the spearhead of a broader conversation in our next Amerks Update. That could’ve come sooner this month but I also happen to be in Grad School so sometimes updating this blog is down to the essentials. I’ll get there. I hope your friends find their way to this here blog. You should suggest it to them. If you’re still with family for a little while longer this weekend suggest it to them. My wife actually has mentioned it to my in-laws a couple times but I don’t think I need them diving into all the swear words from their daughter’s husband if you know what I mean. Like, share and leave me a comment if you got a hot minute. The Sabres open up their season series against the Detroit Red Wings tomorrow and that feels like a fated matchup for some reason. Let’s Go Buffalo!

Thanks for reading.

P.S. I feel like we’re not talking enough about the Leafs two game losing streak. Let’s cheer that on.

#buffalo sabres #hockey #nhl #blog

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Wild West Summer Series 2018: Arizona

We are back this week for round two of our summer series, this week featuring Arizona. The idea is to compare end of 2017-18 Fantasy Hockey Geek rankings for individual players with an expected ranking based on their average draft positions from the start of the year. This process does not necessarily identify who was the most important player to each team but gives us not only an idea of who was a steal/bust on draft day, but where each player was valued going into this season. I will also be adding some thoughts on whether or not that is the new normal for the player in question and if we should be adjusting our draft positions. For a deeper dive on each team plus full projections make sure to get your copy of Dobber’s Fantasy Guide out soon. Also if you are hankering for some East Coast talk, check out Cam Metz’s thoughts on rebounds.

And now for the technical details. We will be using the Fantasy Hockey Geek tool to get a ranking that combines all of a player’s stats for the searched categories. Like for the previous series, the ranks are based on a 12 team, head-to-head league, using the categories of goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits and blocks for forwards/defensemen and wins, saves, save percentage and goals against average for goalies. Player eligibility for this series is based on Yahoo, and draft ranks are based on average draft positions compiled from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS by FantasyPros.

Arizona

Recap:

Arizona finished their 2017-18 season with 70 points in the standings, good for last place in the Western Conference standings. In fact they managed to top only Buffalo and Ottawa league-wide. They also had the dubious honor of leading the west with a goal differential of -48. Things aren’t all doom and gloom though. From February 8th to the end of the season they managed a record of 20-8-3. If you are counting that is a similar winning percentage to Tampa’s year long percentage, and Tampa managed 113 points in 2017-18.

Now, on to the players.

Undervalued:

Antti Raanta

I would like to take a moment, to pause and admire if you will, the season the Raanta put together. According to our categories he was the fifth ranked goalie in 2017-18, 33rd overall. Just as a reminder he plays for the Coyotes who sported the fourth worst goal differential in the league. The only two goalies that placed better than Raanta that are not featured in the table below are Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky.

Tuukka Rask

BOS

Frederik Andersen

TOR

Antti Raanta

ARI

Braden Holtby

WSH

Roberto Luongo

FLA

Notice the gap between him, Holtby and Luongo? It is impressive. So the question is, how did he manage it? Let’s take a look at his stat line.

Games Played

Wins

Saves

SV%

GAA

1291

0.93

2.24

These numbers tell part of the story. Raanta did not have the strongest start with only three wins and a quality start percentage of 50% over his first 18 starts. During that time he had more games with a GAA over 3.00 than under it. At some point though he flipped a switch and went on an incredible tear to finish the year. In his last 18 games he had two non-quality starts for a quality start percentage of 88.9%. He also managed 13 wins during that time period. His strong play really goes all of the way back until January. Anyone who managed to pick him up at the new year enjoyed quite the finish to the season.

Raanta was drafted with an average draft position of 155 and was the 14th goalie off the board. Just for a reference point the goalies drafted closest to him were Brian Elliot and Michael Neuvirth. With a final ranking of 33, and the fifth most valuable goalie it is safe to say he was underappreciated going into last last year. The question then is it sustainable? Will he be similarly valuable next year?

To answer those questions in short, likely no, but maybe. Next year won’t be the same as this year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t have as much value. Most of Raanta’s value came with a fantastic run at the end of the year that saw Arizona put together an incredible string of wins and his personal save percentage rise to .93. The problem is I do not expect Arizona to suddenly morph into Tampa and continue winning at that pace. Now it is definitely still possible that Raanta still gets a similar number of wins, but he will need to play more games.

Raanta saw an increase in his workload in the 2017-18 season after his trade to Arizona, making roughly double the saves as he did in 2016-17 as a backup on the Rangers. He still started only 47 games in 2017-18 though. Scott Wedgewood (20), Darcy Kuemper (10), and Louis Domingue (7) saw a significant chunk of games in his stead. Even with starting in Arizona and the increasing workload he was able to maintain GAA and SV% numbers that are fairly consistent with his career numbers as a backup. What happens if he gets another 20 games though? More wins and saves for sure, but it seems potentially likely that some of his personal numbers might suffer. Over the last three years no goalie (backup or starter) except Raanta has put up a save percentage higher than .916 or a GAA lower than 2.63. One of two things seems possible, either Raanta is a better goalie than anyone who has played for the Coyotes for the last three years (probably), or Arizona’s defense system is lacking to the point where goalies struggle to succeed (also possible, as evidenced by; league wide bottom third for shots allowed, even strength goals against, total goals against and Mike Smith having a late career resurgence after leaving Arizona’s system). My guess is the answer is a bit of both.

For Raanta I think it likely he is due for more games in 2018-19 which should result in more saves, potentially more wins (if this offense can keep on improving), and a potential decrease (though likely still respectable numbers) in GAA and SV%.

Alex Goligoski

Going in I assumed this section was going to feature Clayton Keller, but not only did that seem a bit obvious, according to this scoring metric Goligoski’s end of season rank (115) represented a much more significant draft day value than Keller’s. Goligoski was actually Arizona’s third ranked player behind Raanta and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and the 16th ranked defenseman in the league. Below you can see who Goligoski ended up ranking near.

Jake Gardiner

TOR

113

Keith Yandle

FLA

114

Alex Goligoski

ARI

115

Nick Leddy

NYI

117

Zach Werenski

CBJ

119

The defenseman in this chart have an average draft position of 150. Goligoski was drafted 248th, meaning he likely wasn’t even drafted in standard 12 team leagues. He isn’t exactly known as a prolific scorer, so how did he manage to outperform his draft placement so spectacularly?

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

0.45

119

10.1

114

154

One thing jumps out right away. Goligoski is a defenseman who isn’t known for scoring and yet he has a 10.1 shooting percentage. His point totals and point per game numbers are relatively consistent to previous years, as are his shots and blocks. His hits have fluctuated a bit, but 114 is still within the expected range for Goligoski.

As much as that consistency seems like a good thing, in this case it really it isn’t. Goligoski saw his highest goal production since 2011-2012 and his highest shooting percentage ever. Even with those highs, this was actually his lowest point total in five seasons. The further problem is if we regress his shooting percentage to his career average he drops to 7 or 8 goals which brings him to his lowest point per game numbers of his career as his assist numbers have been slowly dropping for about five seasons. He managed 11 power play points, which is his highest total in four seasons, which sounds like a note of optimism until you realize that he saw less than two minutes per game on the power play per game. That is the lowest power play time of his career, and strongly implies that the spike in power play points won’t continue.

I actually think this one is pretty straight forward. Goligoski has significantly more value in leagues that count peripheral categories as he has decent hit and block numbers. That certainly can account for a lot of the discrepancy between his draft position and final value. This year though his value was even more inflated with 12 goals and 11 power play points that seem very unlikely to be repeated next year. So while he likely should be drafted higher if your league counts peripheral categories he should not be expected to repeat these goal or power play point numbers.

Overvalued:

Dylan Strome

So this one doesn’t look good for Strome. It is perhaps a little unfair as he is a young guy who has some hype and might just need some time to grow. At this point what we know though, is it definitely didn’t happen for him in 2017-18. Yes that 793 in the chart below next to his name means he was the 793rd most valuable player last year.

Maxim Mamin

FLA

781

Luke Kunin

MIN

790

Dylan Strome

ARI

793

Vinni Lettieri

NYR

815

Ryan Donato

BOS

817

Of the above players Strome was the only one drafted in any leagues (though it should be noted only in deeper ones). This does make some sense as he is definitely the most noted prospect of the bunch, and was likely drafted in the hopes we would stick with the Coyotes this year. Unfortunately he spent most of the season out of the NHL playing only 21 games.

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

0.43

13.3

On the positive side, he did score nine points, got some power play time, saw some even strength time with other potential big guns Clayton Keller and Max Domi, and put up 53 points in 50 AHL games. He couldn’t put it together in the NHL, but another year of seasoning, plus team changes may mean he has an opportunity to jump in. Domi is now out and Alex Galchenyuk is in, but we will have to wait and see what that does to the lines. All things considered I would bank on more games from Strome this year, which is likely to lead to more points, if he can stick in the top six he may provide some actual fantasy value next year, but if he can’t it might be another slow year.

Max Domi

As mentioned above, Domi was a relatively hyped prospect and broke into the NHL in 2015-16 with with 52 points his rookie year. These next two seasons have unfortunately dulled expectations somewhat as he has not made the progress that managers have hoped for.

Sam Bennett

CGY

C/LW

327

Marcus Foligno

MIN

329

Max Domi

ARI

332

Vladimir Sobotka

STL

337

Nick Schmaltz

CHI

C/LW

342

In 2017-18 he was drafted 189th overall but ended up with an ranked value of 332, in company with a number of undrafted players above. Clearly anyone who drafted Domi was disappointed by his performance.

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Points/ Game

Shots

Sht%

Hits

PPlay Points

Blocks

0.55

150

2017-18 saw the lowest shooting percentage of Domi’s career, his lowest point totals and point per game rate, and his lowest power play point per game rate. In fact his shooting percentage has declined in each of the last two seasons. The slight ray of sunshine is that his shooting rate did not decline, so there is potential for the goals numbers to improve with a rebound in shooting percentage. The bad news though is he now has three seasons where he was unable to break the two shots per game threshold. He did also maintain his power play time on ice from 2016-17 as well as his season power play point totals, but unfortunately he played he played 23 more games in 2017-18. That means with the same time on ice and playing more games (not to mention Arizona adding a dynamic Clayton Keller for potential support), Domi scored the same number of power play points resulting in a significant drop in point pace.

We could read into a couple of those numbers and hope for an increase in shooting percentage and a rebound in power play points, but that goes out the window a bit now that he is on the move. A fresh setting might do him good, and top six deployment (hopefully with Jonathan Drouin and/or Max Pacioretty) could result in a modest rebound, but I am not seeing much beyond a 55 point pace even given good deployment. With a history of low shot and peripheral categories he is definitely falling on my draft lists using these types of categories.

Thanks for reading

Next week: Calgary

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Wild West Summer Series: Anaheim

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/the-wild-west/wild-west-summer-series-2018-arizona/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: 2018-19 Bounce-Back Candidates (Mar 20)

I went out looking to see if I could find some statistical indicators that a player is cooked and wound up finding a bunch of examples of players who had fallen off a cliff, only to rebound. Look at what Claude Giroux is doing. The season that Giroux is having is proof that players can bounce back from just about any level of miserable play. He had 58 points last season, but over half (31) of those came on the power play. Generally, 5-on-5 production is the best predictor of future performance and the three-year spiral he was on at 5-on-5 was awfully damning:

P/60 5-on-5

2013/2014

2.13

2014/2015

1.57

2015/2016

1.76

2016/2017

0.94

In the span of just a few years, Giroux’s 5-on-5 scoring rate had fallen from that of a first-liner, to that of a fourth-liner. No model would have predicted Giroux bouncing back to an elite rate, and yet here we are with Giroux scoring 2.65 P/60, the 18th highest mark in the league.

Indeed, there have been some wild shifts in shooting percentage these past couple of years. He is shooting a career high 15.9% this season, after shooting a career low 7.0% last season. However, the standard for projecting future performance is to take the three previous seasons with heavy weight to what happened in the most recent season. Even if you assumed that Giroux couldn’t have as poor luck as he had in 2016-17, you still wouldn’t have predicted that he’d return to a first-line rate of scoring.

There are other recent examples of players climbing back from the brink from just this season alone. Anze Kopitar is back in the Hart Trophy mix scoring 2.38 P/60 after falling to a mere 1.39 P/60 last year. Matt Duchene has rebounded nicely from whatever terribleness occurred in Colorado, and that includes a miserable first couple of months in Ottawa. Eric Staal looked dead by the end of his run in Carolina but has been back to elite scoring in Minnesota. Hell, even Dustin Brown appears rejuvenated after years spent as waiver fodder.

I’d bet on everyone named above to regress next season. Based on age and shooting percentages Giroux, Kopitar, Staal and Brown are all wildly out-performing expectation. Still, they are proof that a player can look cooked only to rediscover high-end value. That’s good news for some of this season’s worst performers.

There are four major indicators that can highlight a player due for a bounce back: injury, ice time, shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. Players deficient in any or several of these areas may not simply be bad, but also unlucky. Let’s run through some of this season’s disappointments to see where they stack up:

Jason Spezza – ADP 115 – 7 Goals – 25 Points – 72 Games

Injury?

No. Spezza has suited up for 72 of Dallas’ 73 games, which is a high percentage for Spezza who typically misses at least a half-dozen games each season.

Ice time

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

18:13

3:03

2014/15

17:13

3:39

2015/16

16:31

3:07

2016/17

16:10

2:40

2017/18

13:04

2:02

Oh boy! Look at that four-year slide for Spezza. The bottom really fell out this year. The question for fantasy owners, is this because Spezza is cooked, or because new Stars head coach Ken Hitchcock has no time for him? It’s damning that Spezza can’t even get regular run on the Stars’ top PP unit any more, a spot where he was so effective in previous years.

Spezza has the type of game that should age well. If this is a conflict between Spezza and Hitchcock, would anyone be surprised? The problem, if you’re rooting for a bounce-back, is that Spezza has one more year at $7.5 million remaining on his deal. Parting ways could be in the best interest of both sides but would likely require the Stars to eat some of that deal. Spezza at $5 million could be a great one-year bet for a team.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

8.39

10.3

2014/15

8.52

8.3

2015/16

7.65

16.3

2016/17

9.26

10.1

2017/18

6.15

5.4

It’s no surprise to see Spezza’s shooting percentages in the toilet given how unproductive he has been. The career 13% shooter probably doesn’t possess quite that talent level anymore, but should come in at about 10%, roughly double what he has done this season. Likewise, he probably isn’t the type to consistently drive shooting percentages north of the league average of 8% but should have more luck in the future.

Spezza’s rebound potential looks high. The caveat is that he probably needs a trade to a team that will use him in order to rebound, and even then, it might only be to the 50-point level.

Max Pacioretty – ADP 31 – 17 Goals – 37 Points – 64 Games

Injury?

Yes. Although, Pacioretty’s season was already a massive disappointment before it was mercifully put to an end in early March.

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

18:29

3:01

2014/15

19:24

2:35

2015/16

18:32

2:56

2016/17

19:11

2:43

2017/18

19:01

3:06

No issues here. Even while struggling under a new head coach Pacioretty’s usage remained as high as it ever has been.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

8.95

14.4

2014/15

8.86

12.3

2015/16

7.52

9.9

2016/17

7.98

13.1

2017/18

6.49

That’s how you end a run of what was essentially six straight seasons of 30+ goals and 60+ points (Pacioretty’s prorated numbers for the lockout shortened 2013 season would blow past those benchmarks). No team has shot worse at 5-on-5 than the Canadiens at 6.09%. You can blame a lack of shooting talent, and generally poor roster construction for this team-wide run of bad luck. Indeed, Pacioretty no doubt missed having Alexander Radulov as his most common linemate (this season it was Andrew Shaw). Still, we’ve got a lengthy history that suggests Pacioretty is much better than this season showed.

Brandon Saad – ADP 69 – 16 Goals – 31 Points – 73 Games

Injuries?

Not that we know of.

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

16:17

1:49

2014/15

17:15

2:11

2015/16

17:13

2:07

2016/17

17:02

1:34

2017/18

17:30

2:13

The season-long average downplays what a wonderous opportunity that Saad blew. During the season’s first quarter he averaged 19:01 per game with 3:46 on the PP. This was supposed to be the year that he finally busted out for 60+ points. Instead, he has progressively been buried in Chicago’s lineup in favour of younger options like Alex DeBrincat, Vinny Hinostroza, etc.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

9.57

11.9

2014/15

7.95

11.3

2015/16

9.53

13.3

2016/17

8.18

11.4

2017/18

6.58

7.7

Here we go. Few players have been as snake-bitten as Saad. Saad has remained a play-driving beast boasting strong shot differentials but gone are the above-average shooting numbers he has perennially boasted. The career 11.1% shooter should rebound easily.

There are still questions as to whether Saad can be a contributor on the power play. He scored merely one PPP this season. His career high is 10 PPP. Maybe this is somewhere he doesn’t offer much. Or the 25-year-old simply hasn’t gotten much of a chance throughout his career and when he finally did get a shot it was for a team with a miserable PP in a season where nothing could go right.

These fork-in-the-road moments can alter the course of a player’s career, however. Saad was brought back to help revitalize Jonathan Toews, instead he may find himself a cap casualty once again. Some enterprising team should try and steal Saad out of Chicago much like Jordan Eberle was stolen from Edmonton after a poor run of shooting.

In a perfect scenario Saad breaks out with 60+ points while scoring roughly 15 PPP. If that truly is a hole in his game, then perhaps he tops out at 50 points. However, a 50-point winger with excellent shot volume is still a valuable fantasy commodity.

Milan Lucic – ADP 139

Injuries?

No.

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

17:23

2:21

2014/15

16:20

1:49

2015/16

17:14

2:08

2016/17

17:10

2:44

2017/18

16:17

2:13

Lucic’s minutes are down in his second year with the Oilers, but only after struggling woefully for months. Lucic did have a few runs of productivity on Connor McDavid’s wing, but he failed to replicate last season’s productivity away from the superstar.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

8.96

15.7

2014/15

8.86

12.8

2015/16

9.32

16.1

2016/17

7.5

13.1

2017/18

7.99

7.4

Lucic hasn’t been that unlucky in terms of on-ice shooting, but he has been snake-bitten in terms of individual shooting percentage seeing it nearly cut in half. In particular, Lucic has suffered from his bubble bursting on the power play where he scored 12 goals and 25 points. That was the only season of Lucic’s career where he was a difference maker on the PP.

Using the eye test, there’s little doubt that Lucic is in decline, however people are so eager to trash the Oilers and the horrible contract they signed him to that the pendulum has swung too far in the wrong direction. If Lucic’s shooting rebounds he’ll be back in the mix as a 20-goal/45-point option. That’s not what you want from a player with the contract Lucic signed, but from a player with excellent peripherals it can still be fantasy relevant.

Max Domi – ADP 159 – 5 Goals – 32 Points – 71 Games

Injuries?

Not this year.

Ice Time

PP Time

2015/16

16:22

3:01

2016/17

16:59

2:34

2017/18

16:49

2:41

Domi remains in the mix for a bad Coyotes team, but you get the sense that they’d move on in a heartbeat if someone offered 80 cents on the dollar.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2015/16

9.43

11.5

2016/17

9.33

8.3

2017/18

7.88

3.8

It’s slightly alarming that Domi’s first two seasons involved above-average on-ice shooting percentages when he doesn’t appear to particularly be a shooting percentage driver. The bottom has fallen out on his personal shooting percentage for two straight seasons. We hope that Domi is the above-average shooter we saw in his rookie year, but if he’s only a league-average shooter he probably maxes out at 15 goals, which isn’t all that enticing.

He’s only 23 and has been trapped as perhaps the best forward on the league’s worst team for the entirety of his career. Next season is his fourth year. He’s well worth betting on for a bounce-back.

William Nylander – ADP 51 – 15 Goals – 52 Points – 72 Games

Injuries?

Not to Nylander himself, however the absence of star linemate Auston Matthews for 19 games has been notable. Nylander has 11 points in the 19 games Matthews has missed (0.58 P/G) and 41 points in the 53 games he has played (0.77 P/G).

Ice Time

PP Time

2015/16

16:20

2:43

2016/17

16:01

2:21

2017/18

16:43

2:01

We were perhaps expecting too much from Nylander skating on a deep team that splits ice time evenly between it’s two PP units. It’s especially notable how Nylander’s unit is deployed. Often the second unit out there they don’t get the same benefit of starting their PP chances in the offensive zone. Nylander’s nine PPP are likely too few, but the 27 he put up last season were probably too many. A happy medium in the 15-PPP range should be expected based on the deployment trend we currently see.

At some point Nylander may start to see a greater chunk of PP and overall ice time. Could an exodus of Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk (two top PP options) lead to a top-heavy approach from Toronto?

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2015/16

6.77

14.7

2016/17

6.69

10.7

2017/18

12.09

9.7

If anything, Nylander has been lucky this season, which isn’t what you want to see if forecasting a rebound. Mind you, Nylander hasn’t been that disappointing. He’s on pace for a 59-point season. He’s only disappointing if you were forecasting a breakout, which many were. Nylander was drafted as though that breakout was a sure thing. Voiceover: It wasn’t.

As a Leaf player it’s unlikely that many will be phased by this “disappointing” season. Expect to pay the sticker price again next season.

Cam Atkinson – ADP 74

Injury?

Yes. Atkinson missed 16 games with a broken foot. His season was also going horribly before that injury but losing those games didn’t help.

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

15:47

2:13

2014/15

16:59

2:19

2015/16

17:48

2:15

2016/17

18:05

2:32

2017/18

18:43

2:45

Atkinson’s ice time is trending in the right direction. It’s too bad it took until he was 27 to get top power play usage. He’ll be 29 when next season begins.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

6.94

9.7

2014/15

6.49

10.4

2015/16

8.18

11.9

2016/17

7.79

14.6

2017/18

7.79

8.6

After overachieving in 2016-17 Atkinson’s shooting percentage overcorrected this season. The career 11.1% shooter is probably a 25-goal/55-point guy with upside to crank it into the 60-point range on occasion. Atkinson has been much improved since returning from injury with 20 points in 24 games (a 68-point pace).

Jonathan Drouin – ADP 92 – 11 Goals – 37 Points – 67 Games

Injury?

Not really. Drouin has missed five games, but that hasn’t really been a factor in his disappointing first season in Montreal.

Ice Time

PP Time

2014/15

13:14

1:55

2015/16

14:27

2:01

2016/17

17:42

3:05

2017/18

17:25

3:12

This has been the best season of Drouin’s career in terms of consistent deployment. He won’t match last season’s 26 power-play points, but with 18 PPP already, Drouin will come close despite playing on a team with much weaker special teams than what he had in Tampa Bay.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2014/15

7.75

7.7

2015/16

14.44

11.5

2016/17

7.2

2017/18

5.05

5.3

Another victim of Montreal’s team-wide power outage. You can likely blame his switch to the center position for some of these struggles, although you’d expect more of those struggles to come defensively. There have been reports about Drouin’s fitness level not being up to the demands of the center position, something he could improve upon next year. There are also still questions about his ideal NHL position.

Ultimately, four years in we still don’t quite know what we have in Drouin. Is he the type of player who can drive shooting percentages above average? Is he a winger or a center? Is he merely a power-play specialist?

He’s only 23 with plenty of time to sort these things out. Even if he’ll never be a play driver at even strength he has obvious talent which has been on display on special teams. Having a basement of 20 PPP is a damn good starting point to bet on.

Tyler Toffoli – ADP – 124

Injuries?

No, however Toffoli’s normal centerman, Jeff Carter, missed most of the season. Toffoli has historically done fine in his time away from Carter so we shouldn’t hang too much on the centerman’s absence.

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

12:56

1:35

2014/15

14:35

1:26

2015/16

17:19

2:06

2016/17

16:35

2:17

2017/18

16:16

2:01

Toffoli is the new Atkinson. We’re all still waiting for him to get 18+ minutes of ice time per game with consistent top PP usage. The result would likely be a 70-point breakout season. It’s no surprise that Toffoli’s best season (58 points in 2015/16) came in the year his ice time spiked.

Toffoli scored at a first line rate for his first three seasons, but has fallen off over the past two:

P/60

2013/14

2.06

2014/15

2.5

2015/16

2.05

2016/17

1.37

2017/18

1.72

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

8.33

9.7

2014/15

9.71

11.5

2015/16

9.09

14.6

2016/17

6.55

9.7

2017/18

7.69

It’s entirely possible that Toffoli simply overachieved in his first few seasons. Perhaps he isn’t a shooting percentage driver. His results this season have been essentially league-average. If he’s closer to a league-average guy perhaps the campaign to increase his usage isn’t warranted. The eye test suggests that he’s a really skillful scorer, and one worth betting on.

Ryan Kesler – ADP – 142 – 7 Goals – 10 Points – 35 Games

Injuries?

Yes! Kesler missed the first half of the year after off-season hip surgery and has purportedly been held together with duct tape all season.

Ice Time

PP Time

2013/14

21:49

3:29

2014/15

19:31

2:32

2015/16

19:32

2:02

2016/17

21:18

2:51

2017/18

18:02

1:33

A significant part of Kesler’s fantasy appeal came from the sheer volume of usage he saw last season. He has lost over three minutes of ice time, with half of that coming from a loss of PP deployment. That’s alarming, even knowing his injury situation. He’ll be 34 when next season begins and could still be banged up if the Ducks go on another playoff run.

What’s more, the Ducks brought in Adam Henrique, a younger livelier centerman who has grabbed a bunch of the minutes that Kesler has vacated including his top unit PP usage. Henrique has been good in those minutes. There’s a chance Kesler never gets them back.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2013/14

7.54

10.5

2014/15

7.4

9.8

2015/16

6.12

12.8

2016/17

7.34

11.8

2017/18

5.24

11.7

Kesler’s line is used heavily in defensive situations, but with him labouring the way he has they are struggling to tilt the ice the way they have historically. The result is an on-ice shooting percentage that should rebound for a healthy Kesler, if we ever see that guy again.

Jake Guentzel – ADP – 105 – 22 Goals – 45 Points – 72 Games

Injuries?

No.

Ice Time

PP Time

2016/17

15:53

1:22

2017/18

16:33

1:52

Guentzel’s ice time didn’t take off to the degree that we had hoped. While he has skated roughly 60% his shifts on Sidney Crosby’s wing he has periodically been trapped on the third line, occasionally even forced to play center.

Guentzel has gotten hot any time he has gotten a chance on Pittsburgh’s devastating top PP unit. Unfortunately, Patric Hornqvist is entrenched as the top net-front man and even received a hefty five-year extension. While I was no fan of that extension, it nonetheless shuts Guentzel from top PP usage for the foreseeable future.

Shooting Percentages

OI SH%

SH%

2016/17

10.98

19.8

2017/18

6.13

12.8

There’s a good amount of evidence to suggest that Guentzel is an above-average shooter. Despite his slight build, Guentzel does most of his damage in knife-fighting range. He has proven an ability to get to the net and grind it out or find soft areas. He’s the perfect player type to fit alongside Crosby. That hasn’t resulted in as much success at 5-on-5 as we saw last season. Crosby and his linemates have been horribly snake-bitten, and that includes Guentzel as his on-ice shooting percentage reflects.

Guentzel probably isn’t himself a shooting percentage driver. Despite his ability to convert chances, he probably isn’t going to help his linemates to above-average shooting. Crosby, on the other hand, has historically been one of the best shooting percentage drivers, but it’s worth asking if he still has that ability:

OI SH%

2013/14

9.8

2014/15

8.17

2015/16

8.87

2016/17

8.71

2017/18

5.81

This is the fourth straight season of league-average (or worse) on-ice shooting for Crosby. He still tilts the ice like no other, and of course you’d be foolish to question a player of Crosby’s calibre, but you may also be foolish to expect anything better than league-average going forward, which won’t help Guentzel’s cause.

Guentzel can be better next season, even without a PP promotion, but how much better is the question to ask.

Carey Price is back after a concussion. He didn’t start last night and you can expect he won’t be a nightly start since the Canadiens have little reason to stretch him out. He will play, however, as you can expect Price will want to prove he still has it.

Patrice Bergeron is back skating but won’t play on Wednesday. The real question is if Bergeron travels with the team as the Bruins head west for four games starting on Wednesday.

Rick Nash was also out with an upper-body injury. That led to Ryan Donato’s debut coming on a line with David Krejci, as well as on the Bruins’ top PP unit. Donato contributed three points. Quite the night. Donato probably won’t offer much in a healthy lineup but can contribute while half of the Bruins’ roster is on the shelf.

Donato is the fourth draft pick from the Bruins’ 2014 draft class to make contributions along with David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen and Anders Bjork. Getting drafts like helps to elevate teams to championship level. Read more about Donato here.

Similarly, while the Penguins sent Tristan Jarry to the minors, Matt Murray is unlikely to go tonight. He should be back soon and will play enough to have him ready for the playoffs.

Auston Matthews still won’t return tonight.

Noah Hanifin might be done for the year with a concussion.

Ben Bishop will miss at least the next two weeks. Kari Lehtonen remains an intriguing option, who might just have to finish out the season for the Stars.

Any other bounce-back candidates you’d consider next season? Post below!

Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-2018-19-bounce-back-candidates-mar-20/

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