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whenitsdarkweilluminate · 20 days

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Rotterdam 2020 – Semi-Final 2

Host: Netherlands Slogan: “Open Up” Participants: 41 Voting method: 12-point system (50/50 system - separated) Format: 2 Semi-Finals / Grand Final = the top 10 of semi 1 & 2 + the Big 5 + host

General Overview:

Well, there's not much to comment on here! As I said, SF2 is the more open semi this year. There's only 6 countries that I perceive as “safe” qualifiers in this one, which leaves 4 spots that are up in the air. The first half of this semi is kinda weak too.

Having said that, I think the 2020 winner is actually in this group - Iceland, Switzerland, or Bulgaria. Or it's Italy in the Big 5. I just don't see the juries giving Lithuania and Russia enough support to take the crown. Maybe Norway would've been a dark horse though.

Greece: Stefania - Superg!rl W!th an exclamat!on po!nt! Dream Team instrumentals usually dominate their songs - those quivering, unstable “B-B-B-BR-BRR” bursts are LOUD and overbearing. But they go hard and sound Greek. They're like a supernatural force overtaking you and your surroundings. After the approaching thunder-drum intro, the first one occurs right away (with castanets?) Then the verse minimizes to bass nudges and dull kicks; heightening midway. There's a slam, and the pre-chorus hums alongside light bucket drips, as Stefania's voice now jumps out. Another slam, and the little metal balls dropping accelerate; then a diversion of skipping broken ticks before the “drop” goes OFF with bass throbs. The drop also fills up with lyrics in the second half. Verse 2 quiets to traditional strings. And the bridge escalates via slicing strikes and an intense hum; leading to a big note, a haunting choir chant, horn roars, and one final drop. That bridge is my fave part. The song builds into the drops nicely, and I like the hazy atmosphere. But the comic book character metaphor is kinda cheesy. The lyrics mention Clark Kent's phone booth, a “super car” and X-ray vision. Stefania says girls don't need that stuff to feel powerful and be themselves. The song is about female empowerment (“There's no wonder it takes a woman” is certainly a pun) and finding your passion and identity in the darkness. Stefania also stands up against the detractors. But the message seems unfocused. She also acts as “your supergirl” to help humanity (which she does in the video). The lyrics also sound like they're about a relationship. The “girl/world”; “power/tower” rhymes are filler too.

My prediction: 80% (#19 odds/ #19 scoreboard app). This seems like a pretty safe qualifier. It stands out in a good way, but it's the kinda song that gets 17th-22nd place in the grand final. LIKELY.

Estonia: Uku Suviste - What Love Is “INEVERIMAGINEDTHEPOWER”... this rapid wordy chorus, where Uku crams too many syllables together, just does not work. I like when the “I neeeever kneeeew” slowdown cuts it off, but it just isn't enough. The song is too bland and dull. It begins with Uku taking a breath, then the first verse is a piano ballad, with this alien spaceship sound upon “beautiful surprises”. It has a night sky vibe. There's a heavy thud and an eerie wind, then the chorus initially holds back, with tickles and patters. Then, after a heartbeat thump, Uku's voice rises and the percussion forcefully stomp-splashes, creating a quiet/loud contrast. The post-chorus then adds strings. Verse 2 is less tense with sharper drums, until the pre-chorus. The second chorus jumps right into it. And the bridge copies the chorus lyrics, while the vocals and production reduce to a steam leak. But nothing about this production is that special. The lyrics are sappy too. Uku remarks on how mysterious and surprising life is. That he never understood his old self. And that his aspirations in life weren't about finding a partner. Then he lists a bunch of examples of how you don't know something until you experience it. He was unaware of the power and necessity of love until now. It's a bit cringe how Uku takes his epiphany SO seriously; like this awakening was SO important. The dramatic production doesn't help with that either. This is the kind of song where I'm just waiting for it to be over. The Eesti Laul staging was boring too.

My prediction: 10% (#38 odds/ #38 scoreboard app). The least likely qualifier of SF2 imo. The song is a forgettable nothing-burger, and it was given the worst running order spot. NO CHANCE.

Austria: Vincent Bueno - Alive Austria are in their jury bait era. “Alive” is just too calculated and soulless for me. It's like the songwriters wanted to show off their polished technical craft, but in doing so, I cannot connect to the song. Vincent's Justin Timberlake tribute leaves me feeling cold too. And the intro is kinda pretentious. It spreads a message of freeing yourself from shackled thrones, and how we're all heroes behind our egos. While the piano is like elevator music, with brief subtle strings and echoes of “screaming”, which puts focus on Vincent's vocal flexing. The way he yells “SHACKLE BOLTS” annoys me. Weirdly, the rest of the lyrics are basic. He repeatedly says this person makes him feel alive again... and that's about it. He doesn't need much to ignite his mood, so prepare for “fire shots”. After that intro shuts down, the murky bass emerges, the computerized claps accelerate, there's a windy whoosh, and the funky bass-line takes over, briefly pulling the brakes on “hey!” The post-chorus adds showering synths as the melody fills out, ending on a crackle. Verse 2 maintains the momentum (and adds door knocks) until a synth blare; then the pre-chorus drops down and builds back up. The bridge emphasizes the bass-line, where Vincent whispers. And the song abruptly returns to the intro at the end, where the monarch is overthrown. The production is filled with quirky sounds. I like the funky bass and the “you make me feel like... oh oh oh” build-ups, but the “alive again x2” hook is annoying. The song has a self-confident vibe though.

My prediction: 50% (#31 odds/ #26 scoreboard app). I could see the juries pushing Austria through... and then they would receive <10 televote points in the grand final. “Amen” was only 11th with the juries, but “Alive” is more dynamic. The upbeat songs have an advantage in SF2 as well. It's very borderline though. BORDERLINE IN.

Moldova: Natalia Gordienko - Prison The studio version is better. Natalia needs a more powerful live vocal, since Dream Team productions are so dominant. She also awkwardly walks around some LED chairs and copies “Bulletproof”. The song opens with a dramatic slam, while a whistling flute alternates sides. Then the verse piano tickles, with a couple snowy echoes. Another slam and the bass hums, ending on a windy gasp. Another slam and the pre-chorus jumps out; intensifying midway after a rattle. Then the dark bubbling synth takes over, with plenty of chain clangs and electrical scatters. This chorus sounds like a large, dark, echoing prison. The whole “I don't want to be with/without you” repetition feels empty though. The chorus heightens upon the “PRISON!” yelp, where the flute returns. There's a breather afterwards. The synths arrive earlier the second time. The bridge is a bunch of screams appearing one at a time. And the production goes crazy at the end. It's a very entrapping atmosphere. The louder parts represent Natalia losing her mind, and the lyrics showcase her indecisiveness in wanting this person. There's a lot of “I don't want to...”s, and repeating lines with extra words. That “IdontwannaFEEL... you” melody also channels “Hijo de la luna”. She doesn't want to fight “inside”. She's trapped by the memories. She wishes for solitary confinement. The relationship feels like a prison. She doesn't want to be needy or desperate. These lyrics lack depth and Natalia's emotion seems unconvincing. The production is epic, but this sound only exists in K*rkorov's head; much like Russia 2014 & 2016.

My prediction: 25% (#33 odds/ #40 scoreboard app). Very poor fan reception, but Moldova are known for staging glow-ups, and Kontopoulos & K*rkorov have only NQ'ed once (Azerbaijan 2018). Still, I just don't see it happening with that NF performance. “Sugar”'s placing surprised me, but that had meme potential. UNLIKELY.

San Marino: Senhit - Freaky! Yeah... Senhit had the biggest upgrade in 2021. “Freaky!” cranks the camp factor up to an 11. I mean, she sells it, and it's a high energy upbeat song. But the chorus is annoying, particularly the “FREAKY! FREAKY! FREAKY!” group chants, with the percussion slaps. The song sounds tacky and cheap. And it's another dated disco instrumental from San Marino. The humming intro is like a pretty sunrise. The tiny guitar pings, “body” echoes, and finger snaps continue this peaceful vibe. I like how the opening verse melody hangs on – it's different from the rest of the song. Then, a helicopter flutters by, and the drums and funky bass take over, with some brake screeches. The chorus adds disco strings and synth vomits. Then the intro verse returns. Then it's the chorus again. And the bridge is a disco instrumental break, leading to a group chant moment, and a power down effect. The backing singers sound like they're at a party. But the second half of the song keeps repeating the same 3 stanzas, as if they ran out of ideas. And Senhit sings the “freaky”s and “And life goes by...” with a mocking tone. In the lyrics, she's smitten. Her whole body feels a sensation from this person's touch. The couple are into PDA's, and people call them “freaky”, and think she's pretending to like it (does “freaky” imply public sex?) But they don't care. They like being freaky! They'll break the rules! Life is too short! The song has a 'free yourself and party' kinda vibe. But the more I listen to it, the more annoying and empty it is.

My prediction: 10% (#37 odds/ #41 scoreboard app). Very poor fan reception. The song is too kitschy and dated, and San Marino struggles to qualify most years anyways. This is a contender for last place in the semi. The staging would have to be incredible to save it. NO CHANCE.

Czech Republic: Benny Cristo - Kemama I love that Czechia chose an Afro-beats song. It's not a genre you often hear in Eurovision. But “Kemama” isn't very catchy, is it? The “I wasn't always like that / I wasn't born like that...” build-up is great (with the sliced-up bangs afterwards), but it builds to nothing. The chorus is flat. It's a 'chill vibes only' kinda song though. It opens with a summery guitar and dull synth drips, as Benny lists the producer tags. Then (a subdued version of) the chorus starts things off, with restless taps, little guitar twiddles, and bead shaker swipes. Things intensify with Benny's raised voice and the claps. Then the pre-chorus synths stop/start to build hype. And the new chorus percussion skips along. The second verse/chorus are elevated by horns. The bridge is a foot-dance drum breakdown, then he shouts the last chorus transition. And a wild outdoor drum commotion finishes things off. There's a lot going on in this instrumental, but it's never too much. The lyrics involve Benny and his mother reversing roles - he's now giving her advice. He reassures her he'll be okay. She needn't worry what others say about him. He's become independent with a big heart. He refutes the idea he's “lost his way” - no, he's sure of himself. He'll prove them wrong. He asserts he worked 24/7 to get here. He was bullied as a child, but was resilient thanks to his mother's advice. And now he just wants to dance and enjoy life – there's no need for fighting and prejudice. I like the message at least. I just wish it stood out more.

My prediction: 35% (#26 odds/ #34 scoreboard app). This sounds like nothing else in the contest, so it could be a shock Q. His Vidbir 2020 performance of “Kemama” was much better than whatever that trainwreck was in Eurovision 2021. But I don't think it's catchy enough to Q. UNLIKELY.

Serbia: Hurricane - Hasta la vista This is fun and catchy but it's kinda monotonous. I love the fierce attitude though. The narrator leaves her cheating partner by throwing that Arnold quote in his face! She takes control and decides when it's over: “1, 2, 3 and it's the end! Your time is up!”; “Take it or leave it!”. She blames him for her insomnia. They don't even talk to each other. He can't handle her 'craziness'. And she says he made the wrong choice. “Oh, well, sorry you didn't like me”! Hurricane expresses 0 regrets or doubts here. He blew his chances and they refuse to compromise - it's not “vanity”, it's self-respect. The song has a 'I'm so much better off now' vibe. The instrumental paints the image of the trio fleeing on motorbikes. Maybe he was cheating with all 3 lol. The intro sounds like a vibrating tailpipe that cuts off. Then the Blackpink horns and claps hype things up, as the song swirls up and down. Then, after some glitchy beeps, the trap-y verses kick, buzz, roar and glitch. The pre-chorus switches to a clappy build-up, ending on a deep vocal distortion. Then the chorus speeds/bounces forward with drum rattles; pulling back for catchy stutter responses. The verses also have responses. The post-chorus is like the pre-verse. Verse #2 completely stops twice for submerged vocal bits. And the bridge is a bigger clappy build-up, but it doesn't build to anything new. In Beovizija, Hurricane have great stage presence. That version adds army boot stomps, while the LED keeps displaying “HURRICANE”, and shows an army of women at the end.

My prediction: 75% (#23 odds/ #20 scoreboard app). This is basically the same song as “Loco Loco” so I expect the same result. It's catchy and they had a solid live performance in 2021. Plus, Serbia sounds like a step-up after the last few songs in the running order. LIKELY.

Poland: Alicja - Empires This sounds like a James Bond theme, and I mean that as a positive. The violin intro paints the image of Alicja standing in the ruins after her city burned down. It sets a mournful mood with the somber piano. There's a light thump, then the orchestral strings flicker on/off and tip-toe. The pre-chorus quickly increases the volume. Then the drums take over the chorus, with idle strings, changing the mood into feeling powerless watching this tragedy unfold; until it falls into a thud on “rise and fall”. Verse 2 adds waddling footsteps. The next chorus has a dramatic jittery start. The bridge quiets to piano and cello. The piano slows to a stop before the final chorus. And Alicja ends on a huge scream. The song is about climate change (as seen in the video), and how the world's empires are close to crumbling down. Every empire in history fell at some point. We're not immune. Alicja remarks that it happens so easily and asks if it's our fault. She feels guilty for staying in an escapist reality. She says we hope for change but we don't do it. And she cries “We just want it all”! There's also several idioms: “Ashes to ashes, dust to dust” (we'll be a part of Earth again someday), “Fool's gold” (our possessions have fake value), “Moths to a flame” (we're addicted to harmful stuff). Maybe it's preachy in saying our lifestyles will lead to destruction, but Alicja sings with genuine concern. I also like her distinct vocal and the song's dire atmosphere. The NF performance looks like karaoke night with the scrolling lyrics.

My prediction: 50% (#20 odds/ #23 scoreboard app). Poland is usually a televote-friendly country, and this is a jury-friendly song, so... win/win? SF2 is more ballad-heavy, but I think her voice makes this one stand out. Although this would probably flop in the grand final. That NF staging needs improvement too. BORDERLINE IN.

Iceland: Daði og Gagnamagnið - Think About Things “Baybay... I. Can't. Wait. To. Know.” No, he's talking to an actual baby (his newborn daughter.) Dadi is curious to know what she's thinking about, since he can't understand her yet. He promises to always be there, so she can tell him anytime! He wonders if she loves him back. And he says they're bonded forever, despite her essentially being a stranger. Dadi acts like babies can comprehend parental relationships. But I read these lyrics as sweet and not weird. Babies are an unknown, so it's natural to wonder who they'll grow up to be. The song itself has a nostalgic sound and a relaxing family time mood. It remains low-key the entire time, but still reaches a climax. Dadi's unusual vocal style and the harmonies are hypnotic too. There's a drowsy intro, with the mircowave-y vapor puffs and minimalist vocals, while this antsy wiggly thing grows. Then the synth 'pow's, the moving bass taps, the stationary foot taps, the backing “ah uh ah uh...”, and a quick drum 'ta-t-ta' get things moving (in that order). The verses move to a funky guitar and snaps. Then, after a double slap, the droopy chorus follows a bass guitar groove, as the snaps return midway. An excited horn break follows this, ending on a rolling drum. The next pre-chorus drops down. Chorus #2 is fuller. And the bridge horns anticipate the climactic final “BAAAABBY”. Those “BABY!” hooks are great. The Söngvakeppnin staging definitely stands out - the green pajamas, the pixelated faces, the strange instruments, the sideways struts, the face turns. This is a quirky entry, but a charming and polished one. And the song's groove/rhythm is very interesting and unique.

My prediction: 99% (#4 odds/ #3 scoreboard app). Probably the SF2/grand final televote winner as well. The juries had Iceland pretty high in 2021, so yeah, I think this would've been the Eurovision 2020 winner. LOCKED.

Switzerland: Gjon's Tears - Répondez-moi I initially found this boring. But it captures a feeling of existential dread really well. It's a relatable message in today's world. In the lyrics, Gjon asks life's unanswerable questions. He starts small with why does rain exist? But soon turns serious with why does death exist? He also mentions being separated from his family, and feeling like a stranger in his new and old homes (his parents are from Albania and Kosovo). He later asks why do we keep running? Why do we pray differently? And why future generations are screwed. In the chorus, Gjon is tired of guessing and begs for answers – and no BS ones. But there's no resolution; we're all stuck guessing forever. The verses repeat every question, showing how unrelenting they are. He doesn't beat around the bush either. The song moves very slowly and it has a very serious tone. But Gjon's vulnerability makes it work. He projects sadness really well. And it's a very personal song. The intro is this vibrating hum that lingers for a bit, like white noise. The first verse continues this uneasy silence, only adding tiny guitar pings, and a piano midway. While the chorus inserts strings, “ah uh AHHH...” hooks, and ends on a falsetto scream. The percussion waits until verse 2 to arrive, where the echoing snaps and stomps convey painful frustration. Chorus #2 adds a bleak soldier-marching snare and echoing strikes. And the bridge falls into silence before Gjon screams over the last chorus – I love this climax. His vocals are great too. I can really feel the emotion in this.

My prediction: 99% (#3 odds/ #2 scoreboard app). And this is probably the SF2/grand final jury winner. I mean, Gjon did just that in 2021. Plus, if he can communicate the message through the staging, this will have televote appeal. But will we get two sadboy ballad Eurovision winners in a row? LOCKED.

Denmark: Ben and Tan - Yes This is so aggressively catchy. Depending on my mood, “Yes” is either a banger or it's annoying AF. The chorus is a super potent singalong that's impossible to ignore - every single word of it pops out. It's also excessively upbeat. So, Denmark takes us back to the mid-2010s folk-pop trend. The song starts with acoustic guitar slaps and a stomp-along beat, while Ben & Tan trade leads. The verse winds down upon “give life one more chance”. Then, after a “HEY!” shout, the chorus heightens and occupies the entire surroundings. This part conveys how overwhelmingly strong their feelings are. There's fluttering claps, more stomps, emphatic “SAY YES! SAY YES! SAY YES!” releasing shouts that echo across the arena, and an “ooooh” post-chorus that sounds like bagpipes. Verse 2 introduces the violent strikes (that hit the ground full force from excitement), which reappear later on. The bridge reduces to minimal guitar, before one last “ooooh” creates an epic build into the final chorus - I like that pause when it hits. And the song ends on a softer moment. The lyrics are straightforward. It's about them giving love (or life?) another chance despite what they're dealing with. Tan felt bitter, sad, and lonely because she would've died for her ex. While Ben was controlled by fear and didn't think he could be happy while sober. But everything's changed now they've found each other! The archery lyric goes with the folk song imagery too. In the audience-less DMGP final, the LED flashes “YES”, while Ben & Tan have strategic stage positioning.

My prediction: 85% (#15 odds/ #17 scoreboard app). This is WAAAY too catchy and polished to not make it, and their DMGP performance was pretty solid. Juries love catchy radio pop as well. I predict top 15 in the final. LOCKED.

Albania: Arilena Ara - Fall from the Sky I don't mind if Albania keeps sending female ballads. Arilena's powerful voice really elevates this one, even if the cliché wings metaphor weakens the chorus a bit. She makes that chorus impactful regardless, with the “SKY-Y-Y-Y-UH-Y” cries and “HOLD BACK... MY WINGS...” pauses. She sings with SO much conviction, like she's fighting for her life. I can hear her suffering. And she sounds like Katy Perry lol. Her voice also dominates over the instrumental. Which makes sense, since Arilena is regaining her autonomy from an abusive partner. She hides all the pain they caused, in order to deny them the satisfaction that the absue “worked”. They made her doubt her faith. They lied. They controlled her. But she's resilient! I love when Arilena switches to anger in the bridge - it shows she's no longer afraid. The Albanian version is much darker, where murder seems like the only escape. But the revamped instrumental is more dramatic and... harsh I guess? There's a sharp, ice cold piano intro that slows down. Then, after a rumble, the piano dejectedly softens, before picking itself up. There's a cymbal crash, the chorus strings weep, and the drums and metallic echoes summon strength within. Verse 2 adds a woodblock, and skip-splashes at the end. The bridge breaks free. Then the tension builds with strings and drum bangs, until it breaks upon “FLYYYYY”. The icy piano returns, there's a loud strike, the drums/strings resume, and she literally “screams inside” in a big note. That last chorus transition is so good. Finally, the song crashes down and the outro goes a cappella.

My prediction: 60% (#28 odds/ #18 scoreboard app). This probably would've placed... 17th in the grand final. Albania's female ballads are usually borderline qualifiers, but Arilena's vocals and the big dramatic chorus should be enough. BORDERLINE IN.

Finland: Aksel - Looking Back Last year, Finland said “Look Away”, this year they're “Looking Back”! This one is a personal, heartfelt ballad, where Aksel provides a comforting, sentimental vocal. The lyrics are relatable too. It's about the uneasiness of growing up, and how we don't appreciate our youth until it's over... and then we're nostalgic for it. We're too fixated on achieving a dream job (the “high life”) or on current woes (the “low lights”). Aksel also reminisces over his youth – sharing dreams with friends; the impatience to turn 18; being naive, clueless and confused about stuff; going to parties; acting carelessly. These memories give him comfort. Indeed, the song has a 'don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened' kinda vibe. There's a chilly wind intro, then the first verse is a calm piano ballad, as the autumn winds reappear. A shimmer starts the chorus, where the “HIIIIGH LIFE”/ “LOOOW LIGHTS” shouts hang off a cliff, and the following line relaxes. It isn't the catchiest chorus ever, but it's fine. Verse 2 introduces the dense, stuttering kicks (like a dribbling basketball); which turn splashy in the next pre-chorus. Chorus 2 is fuller and maintains the kicks. But there's no bridge, and that chorus is repeated for a full minute, where nothing changes. I wish there was more *to* this song. The outro reduces to little guitar echoes. Aksel's UMK performance seems heartfelt. The LED shows moving dashes, red lights (to match that lyric), and chalk drawings of kids hanging out and dating.

My prediction: 45% (#27 odds/ #33 scoreboard app). This could be a shock qualifier because of the the juries, but I'm not convinced the televote would go for this. There's so many ballads in the second half, and I don't see this surpassing Poland or Albania. BORDERLINE OUT.

Armenia: Athena Manoukian - Chains on You Eurovision mostly avoids trap music, so this is refreshing. Athena's confident attitude, her flow (“I start it, I make it...”), her “yuh yuh yuh”s, the slurred auto-tuned “diamonds on you”, the “chains on chains on you” mumbles, and the background “woo”s and breathing are what trap needs. She can't sound stiff. Plus the production constantly adds or removes layers at the right moments. It's never overdone or messy. The most prominent layer is the steel drum loop. It starts in the intro and moves ominously in single steps. There's a creepy finger-fidget descent, then the scraping trap beat arrives, with broken metal rattles added in next. The pre-chorus bass bubbles, with a gunshot midway, then the rattles return. The next part switches to claps, bass pulls, and alarm roars. The music stops on the unclear words, then the chorus resumes the first beat. The 2nd verse adds a rapid 'eh-eh-eh' thing. Then the beat minimizes to introduce the frosty warnings. The next clappy part removes the bass midway. The bridge is a bunch of dramatic bangs and muffled “hurt me”s. And the outro electrifies. It's a dark and dangerous, bass-heavy instrumental. It paints the image of meeting up in a sketchy place at night. In the song, Athena knows her admirer has naughty intentions. But she's in control and sets the terms – he must accept she's independent and ambitious. She doesn't care if he leaves. The diamonds are a metaphor for self-worth, since they only shine on her. He assumes she's not interested, but Athena turns seductive in the clappy parts, using “boy” lures and “hurt me!”s. She'll put him in chains too! How kinky. She shows 0 nerves sitting next to him either. The national final had poor sound quality, but there's male dancers and a throne.

My prediction: 60% (#22 odds/ #15 scoreboard app). I think this would've been the “Hvala, ne!” of 2020. It would benefit from the second half having so many ballads, and it sounds modern. It's a polarizing genre, but that might actually help it stand out. It probably wouldn't do much in the grand final though. BORDERLINE IN.

Portugal: Elisa - Medo de sentir This might be the most forgettable entry of 2020. The rising “eeeEEEE” hooks stand out, but the melody is weak and it's a generic FDC ballad. The song is just boring to me. Elisa's delivery seems heartfelt though. She's afraid to love again because of previous failed relationships. She rejects anyone who invites her in. Their gestures make her nervous. Their “I love you”s sound fake, and she doesn't believe they'll stay. Her loneliness won't stop. But she wasn't always putting her guard up. In the bridge, she ultimately asks if they'll wait for her, meaning she hasn't given up. I get the sense she wants to change. The song opens with a “da-DA-da-DA-dun” piano sequence, and it remains a depressed piano ballad for the first verse, while Elisa gives a gentle and vulnerable vocal. The verse ends with a “tah-ha ha-ha” and an “mm-hmm”. Then the chorus introduces the foot thuds, as the piano becomes louder. The instrumental stops midway, then a subtle woodblock appears. Verse #2 adds the strings. Chorus #2 adds the triple drum bangs. Then the pace finally picks up in the bridge, where the drums roam free. This leads to a big note climax, as the piano/drum bangs escalate - it's the moment when Elisa has had enough. The song goes silent afterwards, until the slices appear. And the last chorus has thunderous drums. But this instrumental isn't the most interesting. And the song isn't noticeable enough. Elisa gives an emotional performance in FDC. She sings to the pianist at one point.

My prediction: 20% (#36 odds/ #32 scoreboard app). I think this is too forgettable to qualify, and the other ballads in SF2 have more going for them. UNLIKELY.

Georgia: Tornike Kipiani - Take Me as I Am This just isn't my thing. Tornike's screaming is grating (especially the long notes and the “ME” and “GERMAN” growls). The song is excruciatingly slow. The instrumental feels like I'm drowning in quicksand. And the lyrics call out anti-Georgian xenophobia by... listing stereotypes of other countries. So basically, Tornike is whining about Europe not loving Georgia's Eurovision entries. He's discouraged from being himself, and expected to assimilate to western culture. But he'd rather be authentic, and loved for that. The lyrics only mention the Big 5 countries, so I guess he's mad they get a free pass, while Georgia NQs. In the chorus, the female backing says “I love you” in those 5 languages to give him validation. I get Tornike's point, but it comes across like he's guilt-tripping us into sympathizing with him. As for the production, the intro guitar is like static electricity scattering. Then the verse starts restrained, with deep guitar, deep vocals, and buzzing bass; like we're deep underground. But once the song shifts, his voice changes, and the intense background is overwhelming AF - it's like standing next to a vacuum cleaner. It's just a stationary wall of noise. The percussion kicks, echoes and bone-cracks also move slowly. The chorus doesn't offer any variation, and the long “youuuu”s and “aaaaam”s drag on. Verse 2 thankfully pauses the vacuum, if only briefly, for some subtler sounds. Chorus 2 adds the orchestra. And the song ends with a horn and a cymbal.

My prediction: 45% (#14 odds/ #27 scoreboard app). This is the hardest one to predict. People will either love it or hate it. But Georgia's other left-field entries didn't qualify (like 2012, 2014, 2019, and 2022) and I think the juries would tank this too. BORDERLINE OUT.

Bulgaria: Victoria - Tears Getting Sober Billie Eilish's influence didn't take long to reach Eurovision. Victoria uses a similar minimalist vocal style, and the backing “mHmHm”s mimic Billie's vocal layering. But this combination creates a cool texture regardless. “TGS” opens with those ghostly hums alternating sides; followed by an icy 'ding... ding... ↓wind down↓'. Then Victoria's voice and the bare piano are very intimate and personal. The humming returns for the chorus, with some “i-uh-i-uh-i” hooks, but it's still pretty bare. Verse 2 adds a tiny harp(?) that ticks like a clock. The new pre-chorus has a backing wail. The next chorus adds the strings, pausing for an “mHmHm” midway. And the bridge recoils into this quivering thing. But then... the strings grow (thru the “GROOOW” climax) and fall down, the horns rise back up, and that final chorus gives me the chills. Victoria's voice and the orchestra breathtakingly soar, with a midway rise-up. The song quiets upon “scar”; ending with a clarinet(?) and one last hum. “TGS” is a modernized version of the grand, sophisticated ballads of the past. It does a good job of holding back patiently until the climax. In the lyrics, Victoria sarcastically says “great!” - her mental health is affecting her 10 times a day. She knows she has to let go of the pain and the burden. She'll move on in time, but the scar leaves a mark. There's a couple of unusual phrases, like “sugar in my wounds” instead of salt, implying they're sweet lies. Plus the song title – I guess “sober” means “dry”. And the dirt metaphor comparing her to a plant. Later in the song, Victoria is amazed by her growth. It's her first time trying too! And the grandiose finale symbolizes her transformation.

My prediction: 99% (#1 odds/ #4 scoreboard app). It's one of the 6 winner contenders of 2020, and this would do really well with juries. The Billie Eilish vibes might appeal to the televoters too, since that makes it modern. She could just sit on a bench like the music video, and I think it would work. LOCKED.

Latvia: Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing WTF is this drop? It sounds like an elephant struggling to sneeze; with glass shatters thrown in. It's so rigid and it keeps getting blocked off in an unsatisfying way. Which is a shame, because I like the rest of the song. It has a good message - as long as you're still alive, it's not too late to grow or change. The recurring, circling, distant chants of “I will keep on going / I will keep on running...” are a mantra to motive yourself, believe in yourself, and control your destiny. The chants sound resolute and ominous; like they're coming from a poorly lit, abandoned gym. The song opens and closes with them. The intro also leaks steam midway, followed by irregular clock ticks. Then the kick-clap trap beat takes over, while ejecting several blares. The verses swing in midair, and the trap beat remains in the later chants. There's another leak, then the popping squeaks and the backing responses anticipate the drop. Verse 2 reduces to those squeaks before the beat returns. Samanta raps over the second drop. There's a breather before building to the third. And the song ends on a 'DO-DO-DO-DO'. So, Samanta felt like giving up and staying in bed. Her life was going nowhere. But she's not looking back anymore. Now she pushes herself to improve everyday. The build-up into the drop signals her growing strength. And the rap section mentions her ambition and self-love. There's also that “Life is music/I am a composer” lyric lol. In Supernova, the 3 backing singers wore face shields and used spray bottles... it was 2020 after all. The flashing lights are overwhelming though.

My prediction: 40% (#35 odds/ #21 scoreboard app). I think this is just too experimental for Eurovision. That “drop” might instantly turn some people off, particularly the juries. Also, “The Moon Is Rising” was last place in the semi, and Latvia has one of the worst qualification records. And I can't see BOTH Armenia and Latvia qualifying. But... it does stand out, so BORDERLINE OUT.

Predictions recap... Locked: Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Denmark Likely: Greece, Serbia Borderline in: Armenia, Albania, Austria, Poland Borderline out: Georgia, Finland, Latvia Unlikely: Czechia, Moldova, Portugal No chance: Estonia, San Marino

SF2 Winner: Iceland Jury winner: Switzerland or Bulgaria Televote winner: Iceland Last place: San Marino

My Ranking:

01. Bulgaria: Victoria - Tears Getting Sober 02. Switzerland: Gjon's Tears - Répondez-moi 03. Iceland: Daði og Gagnamagnið - Think About Things 04. Armenia: Athena Manoukian - Chains on You 05. Poland: Alicja - Empires 06. Albania: Arilena Ara - Fall from the Sky 07. Serbia: Hurricane - Hasta la vista 08. Latvia: Samanta Tīna - Still Breathing 09. Finland: Aksel - Looking Back 10. Denmark: Ben and Tan - Yes

11. Czech Republic: Benny Cristo - Kemama 12. Moldova: Natalia Gordienko - Prison 13. Greece: Stefania - Superg!rl 14. Portugal: Elisa - Medo de sentir 15. San Marino: Senhit - Freaky! 16. Austria: Vincent Bueno - Alive 17. Estonia: Uku Suviste - What Love Is 18. Georgia: Tornike Kipiani - Take Me as I Am

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