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spirit-speaking · 6 months

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Return to Sender

Two full days of wandering the manor had left very little room for anything exciting to fall into her lap. It had certainly given Valeria plenty of time to think and reflect. The pain in her hand had subsided and thankfully no damage had been done for her to have concern further than the day she struck Vahalia -- an awful choice but one she had made nonetheless and she knew Vahalia wasn’t about to forget it any time soon.

Curiosity often got the best of her, earning her tight spaces to wiggle out from later. But she had been mulling over the idea of a bracelet, a single bracelet she had seen in her jewelry box and the very same in which Marion had expressed to Valeria where she had gotten it.

According to Marion she had talked about it for days, professing how she had gotten it from none other that that gentleman Ricard Blythe. And even with them no longer embarked on the path towards their appointed destination, she still held on to this one piece she knew had some significant value to the Blythe name. She couldn’t keep it. It wouldn’t have been proper – right.

Slender fingers curled along the delicate silver bracelet in her palm and she felt the warmed of the material at her skin as she had been holding on to it for quite a long time. Just another thing in this house that seemed to be overlooked. Surely Vahalia hadn’t thought about it when and while she was cutting the contract off and Ricard… well Valeria hadn’t seen him until a few days ago but something jogged within her. Not quite memories but a feeling, something she could only describe as a gut instinct.

What type of woman would she be if she couldn’t give back something that didn’t belong to her; even more that she had no solid answers to work off of?

Deep green skirts shifted and Valeria got up from her seat near the big windows in her room. It was getting late, already the sun had settled which to her, meant Vahalia would likely be winding down for the evening along with much of the staff. By the 20th bell, she knew Bruce would be in the office with Vahalia, likely partaking in a drink as the two went about final business for the day and to know what to start off with for the following.

Yes, she had the schedules and routines of everyone in the house quite seared into her memory now. For a woman who barely left the manor aside from a few times a week to work at the library, the manor itself was a staple and one she was keen on buffering out over time when her health allowed.

Pulling a cloak over her head and tugging on a pair of high boots to keep warm from the cold outside, Valeria made her way out of her room, pocketing the bracelet and meandering down the hallway in a rather fast pace. The sooner she could leave without being spotted, the better. The front door certainly wasn’t up for debate and the windows were a dangerous prospect and possibly loud with all the ice and snow that would jam them shut – but there was one more place she had to try.

Quiet steps had brought the Cress woman into the deepest, darkest recess of the manor itself, opening the door to the family crypt and then stepping down into the narrow tunnel, the heavy wooden door was closed behind her; minimal moans of protest from the wood. Swiftly she made haste down the stairs and the winding corridors, past the few rows of those who had passed over long ago and then towards the other door at the end that she knew led out into the property of the estate itself.

The wind hit her hard when she threw open the door and stepped out, quickly bundling the cloak around her neck as she set the door ajar slightly with a stone to keep it as a respectable entrance later for getting back in. With determination, she was off, mind settled on one thing – the Milner estate.

When the door opened, the warm light found Valeria’s face and she stood with the cloak snapped and tucked inward towards her frame, keeping herself as warm as she could against the elements, “I’m Lady Cress.” she announced, “-- here to see Lord Blythe.” the attendant seemed to look her over and there was some mild surprise on their face as they stepped aside and let her in. Surely; it had been some time since her face had been seen in Ricard’s estates. She remembered none of it.

The attendant in question, a younger Hyur male, shook off his surprise before offering a quick bow and closing the door behind her, taking his place before offering to take her cloak. The space was well-lit and warm, a juxtaposition to that of the outside.

“I…o-of course my lady. Forgive our surprise, we simply…”

“I don’t think the lady asked for an explanation as to why you were surprised, Vincent. I believe, if I heard right, she mentioned she was here to see me.”

From the top of the stairs, hands resting on the railing, sleeves of the simple white button-up shirt he wore rolled up to his elbows and looking terribly casual stood Ricard, easy grin in place as he eyed the scene in his front hall with no small amount of curiosity. “So do our lovely guest a good turn, see her cloak to its proper spot, and then perhaps something warm to drink, hm? The weather outside is something terrible right now…”

“Of course, sir.” Another quick bow and Vincent set off to his work, as Ricard made his way down the stairs, “Well, Lady Cress, you have the Lord Blythe’s attention - my sitting room is right this way,” he motioned in the direction Vincent had disappeared towards. “Shall we go sit? There’s a lovely fire going and you can tell me what’s brought you all the way from the Cress manor.”

“I – well I apologize for being so late. I suppose I hadn’t…” she followed after Ricard, holding tight to the item in her hand even though her cloak had been taken, “ – I hadn’t quite thought it through. Not half as well as common sense would have advised me to.”

“Common sense isn’t quite as common as one might believe - and not nearly as fun. What’s life without a little adventure, hm?” He glanced over his shoulder towards her as he led her into the sitting room. He had been right - the fire was well stoked and warm. Had she been able to recall, she would have noticed that the room had been expanded from her last visit to include a reading nook - but it wasn’t something that he pointed out.

Heavy skirts flowed over the places in which Valeria stepped, “I won’t take up much of your time. I’m just trying to piece things together. It’s hard to truly feel like I can move on without knowing the parts of my past that are difficult to recall. That…and well I thought it best to return something.” Once in the room, Valeria naturally found some comfort near the fireplace and settled upon one of the available chairs. Here, for the time being, it seemed comfortable – normal.

In a place, she should have felt uneasy or strange in, but it was a cozy space, highly familiar in ways she couldn’t quite put her finger on but here….she felt safe?

Ricard settled into the seat across from her, leaning back into the chair as Vincent arrived, setting a tray down - a teapot and two cups set out, before offering another low bow and moving to stand by the entrance to the room once more. “I’m certainly in no rush, you can take up as much time as you like. I’m happy to try and assist in any way that I can and if that means offering what memories I was a part of, then I can do that.”

He reached over, pouring into both cups before offering one out to her carefully. “But what is this ‘something’ you felt compelled to return?”

Mismatched eyes gazed across to Ricard as he spoke and poured the tea, Valeria taking a moment to think and feeling the warmth from the fire before finally settling on what was appropriate to ask, “What was I to you? — or rather, how were we?” When she asked, her hand reached out, fingers unfurling and the bracelet he had once given her was within the cup of her palm, well kept, pristine as what he might have remembered it, “I was told that you gave this to me and the significance it held. You’ve told me your mother was disappointed. These are all things I don’t feel….a stranger would have had or experienced. If there were genuine connections with people around me, I want to know, I would like to learn.”

His gaze settled on the bracelet as he set the cup down next to her chair gently. “I don’t know that there’s an easy way to answer that, but I’ll try.” He shifted over brushing his fingers over the bracelet hovering over the end - the most recent addition. “You were told of the significance of this, yes? That it was a family heirloom. We add a new jewel to the piece for each new addition to the family before we gift the piece to our newest member - I gave this to you before you met my parents. You were wearing it the evening you met them, actually.”

Ricard shifted back in his seat but only slightly, his hands settled between his knees. “We were…it was an arranged pairing, Valeria, and we were trying to get to know one another and trying to make the best of the situation at the same time.” His head tilted as he looked up - blue meeting mismatched eyes, “You were to be my wife - we were learning how to maneuver our day-to-day responsibilities and how to interact with one another…what was important to one another.”

Silently Valeria looked to the bracelet in hand, free hand adjusting the cup of tea nearby to ensure it wouldn’t be tipped and the more Ricard spoke, the more she felt herself sink back into the chair, eyes drifting to the item in her hand.

He motioned over towards the reading nook, “Little changes were made to the estate, and things along those lines - as we learned what made one another tick. And when I mentioned my mother was disappointed, well…my mother was ecstatic to hear about the arrangement in the first place and then after she met you, well - it was rare that I saw her that she didn’t talk about just how excited she was to bring someone new into the family…and then for the possibility of grandchildren.” He sighed. “Which wouldn’t have happened until we were ready, so she would have been highly disappointed anyway, but neither here nor there - she enjoyed the time she got to spend with you prior to your accident, and was upset to hear that the arrangement was being called off.”

A hand reached up and ran through his hair before reaching for his own tea cup. “We’ve had…many conversations about it.”

Valeria’s stare was heavily settled to the nook Ricard had indicated and for the life of her, she couldn’t remember any of it but the unsettling lump in her throat and the pressure within her ribcage she certainly felt as if though impact had been made between them at one point. They sounded as if though they took measured steps to where they had been then and even now….

“Why didn’t you come back for me?” her eyes darted over Ricard’s face. Surely she had meant something to him at one point, even if it was on good terms or friends? “Did you feel anything for me, did you visit me? What was I then besides a name on a contract…” she blinked, a softness still in her voice and stare – she was attentive and for a brief moment there was a quizzical gaze to the cup he held. Tea? Something in her stirred – that wasn’t right. She blinked again, pushing the thoughts to the furthest part of her mind.

“Apologies, I overstep. I suppose none of those answers truly matter now since it’s been….ah….how long now? A long time I think?” she furrowed her brow trying to recall how many moons had cycled while she slept.

A small smile that didn’t reach his eyes crossed his features as he set his cup down. “I should’ve had Vincent bring something with a bit more kick.” A soft exhale left him as he met her gaze, shifting forward once more, a bit somber. “It’s been…about a year since your accident. Maybe a little less. And I disagree, I think the answers do matter.”

There was a moment of hesitation, before he gave a sharp exhale and continued on, “Answers always matter. Or I think they do - perhaps that has to do with what I do. But I digress. The day I was informed of what happened, your sister summoned me to the Cress estate and we had a conversation about what was to be done…I wanted to wait, see what happened, you could wake up. Vahalia wanted a decision made - and we settled on that if you hadn’t woken up in a few months the contract would be broken.”

“Your sister and I, Valeria - the history is long and complicated. I don’t believe her to be overly fond of me. But with you…I didn’t return because of the history partially - my presence in the Cress manor when the contract was in place was one thing. Without it, it was…tenuous. I’d heard you’d woken up, but…didn’t want to make things complicated. It was, after all, an arranged marriage and our last discussion had been…tense. You’d left it rather irritated with me.”

Ricard lifted his cup, taking a sip and managing not to scrunch his nose slightly. Bourbon would have been his preferred evening drink - but he needed to be clear-headed to make sure she got home safely. He set the cup down before reaching across and softly laying a hand over hers. “But you were…are certainly more than a name on a contract - and there are days that I do still wonder where we might have been now, had I been with you in the Cozier that afternoon. We’d have been…six months married at this point? Perhaps a little less?” The hand was slowly withdrawn, not wanting to make her uncomfortable. “I’d like to think we were friendly, moving in the right direction, given the rather short time we’d been given.”

“If that is the case then…” she scooted closer on the edge of her seat and she reached for his hand, the one that happened to be closest to her, and if allowed to be taken, she would gently turn over his hand, palm up, “ I would still very much like to be friendly with you, I could use more friends in my life and since we were friends before I see no reason why cannot be still.”

Valeria smiled and with the outreach of her other hand she carefully dropped the heirloom bracelet into his grasp, “ I would very much like to give this back as fate had it that the addition was not to represent me and I would feel wrong to possess it. I do however thank you for thinking of me in the moment.”

The metal was an odd contrast to the feel of her hand against his, and he offered a low hum. “Or perhaps it does and it was simply given at the wrong time, hm?” He looked up with a momentary indiscernible expression before giving her a quick wink and a playful smile.

There was an uneasiness that wrought over Valeria's face at Ricard's comment, only for the fact that he was now toying with her while vulnerable. Trying to do the right thing…but then again she hadn’t known him as much as she had wished to, to piece together the blips of her memory that had dabbed out over the course of several months and traumatic injury. She smiled softly, it was the best and only thing she could do in the moment, finding no ill-will in his words but perhaps that was his way of making light of something but that didn’t stop her chest from clutching inward on itself.

Seeing his attempt to be lighthearted fall short, he bowed his head slightly. “I jest - and apologize if I’ve made you uneasy.” Fingers closed around the bracelet carefully. Sure he had the item secure, he turned his hand over and lifted their hands, leaning down and pressing a light kiss to the back of her knuckles. “Then friends it is - though I feel I should warn you, being friends with me may lead to no small number of shenanigans. All good - I assure you. Are you certain you’re prepared, Lady Cress?” His head canted to the side as he lowered their hands once more.

At Ricard's question, Valeria’s eyes danced over his face without knowing the true meaning of what he was suggesting and before she could truly think, her mouth responded, “I’m sure it is no different than the others I keep in my company. I’m no stranger to the unexpected and enigmatic.”

“Oh?” An eyebrow quirked as his gaze now turned curious. “Who are some of these enigmatic figures that you associate with, I wonder?” He released her hand back to her, turning the bracelet over in his hand, “Not that you are under any obligation to tell me, of course. I’m just - as I mentioned before, insatiably curious. It tends to get me into trouble from time to time.”

“As you say.” she regarded him curiously and she looked at her teacup, opting to take a heavy sip from the rim as it was far cooler than it had been 10 minutes prior. Anything to keep herself from blabbing more than necessary. He shouldn't have been so surprised with the company she kept considering who her sister was and Ricard had been very, well aware of that.

“Friends.” Valeria afforded him as an answer, “Friends of friends.” she tacked on but decided to leave it at that.

“An answer without truly offering an answer. Well played.” The bracelet was carefully tucked away as Ricard looked towards her with a smile. “That is a skill some never master. I’ll press no further and allow these friends to remain mysterious. But tell me about you then…before it felt like your interests were always changing. Now you seem to be much more…focused.”

"I'm awake more now than I ever was, that's what it feels like." Valeria placed her teacup down. A majority of it well tucked away, "There is really….nothing to tell. I've been getting out more these days which has been refreshing."

“There’s nothing to tell…yet.” He started to reach for his own cup before thinking better of it. The liquid was lukewarm at this point, if not cooler. “Perhaps a silver lining…You get to start again, in a sense. Be who you’d like, explore, see things for the first time. I can imagine getting outside of the Cress manor would be quite refreshing after a while. Do you have any places in mind that you want to visit?”

A soft chuckle escaped Valeria and she nodded, “A few places. I’ve been invited somewhere so I am quite excited for that.” and now she was getting far too personal and his questions were prying. Placing her hands to her knees, she felt the fabric of her skirt a moment, “I should probably get back before it gets too late.”

Looking up Valeria retained her smile from moments prior, “We will see each other again in passing I’m sure. But thank you for the hospitality this evening and for seeing me on such late notice. I’m glad I came.”

“You’re welcome any time.” Ricard stood, glancing back behind him and giving Vincent a quick nod, the man disappearing back into the hall. “Allow me to escort you at least to the edge of the Cress property? I’d rest easier knowing you made it safely home.”

“It won’t be necessary. I’d rather not have anyone see you or wake the rest of the house.” she made known, making her way for her cloak that Vincent had the intent on assisting her with before seeing her out. Adjusting it around her shoulders and neck she smiled across to Ricard, “I’ll be quite fine, I assure you. I appreciate your hospitality and Vincent, thank you.” the Cress woman made eye contact with the attendant and offered a brisk nod in thanks.

“If you’re quite sure…” Ricard trailed off, following her towards the front door. “...Well, if I can’t convince you otherwise, then at the very least, be safe, and try to stay warm. Until we meet again, Lady Cress.” He gave a small bow and a smile as he straightened up to face her once more.

The gesture had been returned and silently, Valeria had stepped out into the chill of the evening once more making her way back.

How could have she been so blind to not see the mistake in her actions, how going where she should have left well enough alone might have brought about additional consequences aside from the pangs of pain she was feeling in her chest and the confusion in her head? She could feel every vessel within her surgering with blood, the cold nipping at her cheeks and the very fury of anger rising within her ribcage until it knotted itself into her stomach. She didn't know what to make of the cacophony of mixed emotions.

She had to know what the faceless man in her life had once meant to her, even more so that she needed to return the one thing she felt wasn’t hers to keep any longer. Valeria had no business holding on to the item, especially since the one who gave it to her was but a small blip in memory.

Her temple thrummed with an ache and her fingertips instantly found the area, a habit and her reaction which was to alleviate the uncomfortable sensation that wracked her senses without relenting. Perhaps she would have been better left to her devices at home rather than to have gallivanted around in the evening...

She traveled through the familiar courtyard and passed the collection of statues at the back of the manor that was overgrown by winter weeds, slipping back through the door from which she had escaped – the family’s mausoleum a familiar sight as she was now within the dark, chilled halls where the dead of her ancestors rested. Their physical forms remained but their aetherial forms had long since gone back into the lifestream.

Slow, soft steps brought her through the familiar narrow tunnels of the crypt and eventually led upwards towards the heart of the manor. She could already feel the warmth radiating along the top most part of the stairs and she opened the door quietly.

It was late.

Far too late for anyone to have been up at this hour, even for Vahalia.

Collab with: @ricard-blythe-ffxiv

#Stories #Blurbs #Collab writing

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agendaculturaldelima · 1 month

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#ProyeccionDeVida

🎥🎼 La Música en el Cine, presenta:

🎬 “EL DESFILE DEL AMOR” [The Love Parade]

🔎 Género: Comedia / Romance / Musical

⌛️ Duración: 107 minutos

✍️ Guión: Guy Bolton y Ernest Vajda

📘 Obra: Jules Chancel y Leon Xanrof

🎶 Música: W. Franke Harling, John Leipold, Oscar Potoker y Max Terr

📷 Fotografía: Victor Milner (B&W)

🗯 Argumento: Por sus deshonrosas aventuras en París, el agregado militar, conde Alfred Renard, es devuelto a su país de origen Sylvania, justo en los días en que los miembros del Consejo de Estado andan preocupados porque la reina Louise I no consigue casarse con ninguno de sus pretendientes... pero al ser llevado ante su presencia a la espera de recibir su castigo, Renard conseguirá seducirla y Sylvania va a tener a un príncipe consorte que ha jurado ante la iglesia ser dócil y obediente.

👥 Reparto: Maurice Chevalier (Alfred Renard), Jeanette MacDonald (Queen Louise), Lillian Roth (Lulu), Eugene Pallette (Minister of War), Virginia Bruce, Jean Harlow (Woman in Opera Box), Ben Turpin (Valletto Strabico), Lionel Belmore (Prime Minister), E. H. Calvert (Sylvanian Ambassador) y Edgar Norton (Master of Ceremonies) y Winter Hall.

📢 Dirección: Ernst Lubitsch

🌏 País: Estados Unidos

📅 Año: 1929

📽 Proyección:

📆 Sábado 23 de Marzo

🕚 11:00am.

🏪 Sala Azul del Centro Cultural PUCP (av. Camino Real 1075 San Isidro)

⭐ Organiza: Sociedad Filarmonica de Lima

🚶‍♀️🚶‍♂️ Ingreso libre

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marprocessesjournal · 1 year

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Lecture: pre-post-print & experimental publishing- Can Yang

- sub categories- book objects, art, artist books

- visual, verbi-visual and verbal

- the book on books on artist books

- other books non books anti books pseudo books

eg. het boek mallarmé- scherübel- foam block with cover

‘no need to read. a sample of the work suffices to authenticate it’s existence’

book as object

- both content and object- Ben Denzer

- 60,000 immortal individuals

- 200 fortunes

book as archive

- bruce milner

- Weekly Informed, Can Yang

print to digital

- diagrams show how art publishing has changed from print ages to post digital

book to publication

- “we are no longer talking about books anymore- more capacious than book the term publication is better because it can encompass digital files hybrid medias and forms we have yet to imagine” -Michalis Pichler

print to ebooks

- also requires a soft design method, hybrid print, low budget

digital publishing

- paperless revolution

- lambo bulleting

- takachizu is a community archive that identifies and reflects on that which is most valuable about Little Tokyo- historical events, food, culture, identity

- onpublishing

post digital publishing

- ideology press

- ubuWeb 1996- digital archive for artistic media- publishing the unpublishable

- library of the printed web 2013

the independent and the institutional

- monoskop.org- art and culture study

- ‘information wants to be free’

- aaaaaarg

- printed matter, inc.

- temporary services

Useful links

#conceptsofvisuallanguage #lecture #useful links #viscomyear2

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squarehole · 1 year

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⚡ Closing the show tomorrow is Tom Little! 🌟

Tom is an award-winning comedian. In 2015 he won the Leicester Mercury Comedian of the Year (an award also won by acts such as Johnny Vegas, Jason Manford, Rhod Gilbert and Romesh Ranganathan) which he never stops banging on about. He was also a BBC Radio New Comedy Award finalist and his 2018 Edinburgh show was nominated for the Amused Moose Comedy Award. He plays the well-read fool, taking on hugely diverse facts, but refusing to deal with them conventionally, with a unique turn of phrase.

“Inventive, unexpected and often very silly…. He surely can’t remain a hidden treasure for long. ” ★★★★ — Chortle

“His elevation to TV panel show favourite is surely only a matter of time.” — ★★★★ The Wee Review

“The real deal. An instinctive comedian with oodles of charm and a quirky, frenetic intensity… If he cuts his energy levels by 10% he could end up in movies.” — The Spectator

“A huge talent.” — The Scotsman

#sheffield #comedy

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libramooon · 3 years

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thank you for the tag @hellitwasyoufirstsergeant ! 🥰

MUSIC

fave genre? classic rock / pop / folk / older country (60s & 70s)

fave artist? Dolly Parton

fave song? Key to Life on Earth by Declan McKenna

most listened song recently? Roddy by Djo

song currently stuck in your head? the Jeff Bezos song by Bo Burnham

5 fave lyrics?

"I was your starry eyed lover and the one that you saw. I was your hurricane rider and the one that you'd call. We were just two moonshiners on the cusp of a breath. And I've been burning for you baby since the moment I left." [Paul by Big Thief]

"There were ghosts in the eyes of all the boys you sent away. They haunt this dusty beach road in the skeleton frames of burned out Chevrolets." [Thunder Road by Bruce Springsteen]

"I am relieved that I'd left my room tidy. They'll think of me kindly when they come for my things." [Last Words of a Shooting Star by Mitski]

"And it's hard to dance with a devil on your back so shake him off" [Shake It Out by Florence + the Machine]

"Maybe I'm too emotional but your apathy's like a wound in salt." [good 4 u by Olivia Rodrigo]

BOOKS

fav book genre? horror / thriller / mystery

fav writer? Stephen King / Ania Ahlborn

fav book? 11/22/63 by Stephen King

fav book series? The Maze Runner series

comfort book? The Outsiders by S.E. Hinton

perfect book to read on a rainy day? ???

fave characters? Richie Tozier, Mike Hanlon, Beverly Marsh from IT, Frannie Goldsmith from The Stand, Sadie Dunhill from 11/22/63, Carrie White from Carrie, Neville Longbottom and Luna Lovegood from the Harry Potter series, Finnick Odair from The Hunger Games trilogy, Sodapop Curtis from The Outsiders, and Newt from The Maze Runner series.

5 quotes from your fave books that you know by heart?

"No good friends, no bad friends; only people you want, need to be with. People who build their houses in your heart." [IT by Stephen King]

"Eddie discovered one of his childhood's great truths. Grownups are the real monsters." [IT by Stephen King]

"It seemed funny to me that the sunset she saw from her patio and the one I saw from the back steps was the same one. Maye the two different worlds we lived in weren't so different. We saw the same sunset." [The Outsiders by S.E. Hinton]

"I recalled some of the eloquent phrases of politicians and newsmen about how 'gallant' it is from a man to 'shed his blood for his country,' and 'to give his life's blood as a sacrifice,' and so on. The words seemed so ridiculous. Only the flies benefited." [With the Old Breed: At Peleliu and Okinawa by Eugene Sledge]

This quote from IT is way too long but I used it in this gif set.

TV AND MOVIES

fave tv/movie genre? horror / mystery / sci-fi / comedy / coming of age

fave movie? The Lost Boys

comfort movie(s)? The Lost Boys, The Goonies, The Breakfast Club, Dirty Dancing, Back to the Future, IT (2017 & 2019), Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back, The 'Burbs, Dazed and Confused, American Graffiti, Hocus Pocus, School of Rock

fave tv show? Supernatural, Stranger Things, Band of Brothers, Parks and Recreation, The Office, Barry, The Walking Dead, American Horror Story

most rewatched tv show? Supernatural

5 fave characters? Steve Harrington, Dean Winchester, Beth Greene, John Milner, and Allison Reynolds

Tagging (absolutely no pressure at all): @punkgeekcryptid @dearscone @s-ara-bel @genes-heffron @bowtiescarves @achillesmercury1996 @a-beautiful-struggle-of-life @pleasedontlookatmeokay @billhaders + anyone who sees this and would like to do this :)

#this took me way too long to finish fjklasljkas #tag game

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nuadox · 3 years

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Simulating thousands of years of California earthquake history to assess risks

- By Aaron Dubrow , University of Texas at Austin -

Massive earthquakes are, fortunately, rare events. But that scarcity of information blinds us in some ways to their risks, especially when it comes to determining the risk for a specific location or structure.

"We haven't observed most of the possible events that could cause large damage," explained Kevin Milner, a computer scientist and seismology researcher at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) at the University of Southern California. "Using Southern California as an example, we haven't had a truly big earthquake since 1857 — that was the last time the southern San Andreas broke into a massive magnitude 7.9 earthquake. A San Andreas earthquake could impact a much larger area than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and other large earthquakes can occur too. That's what we're worried about."

The traditional way of getting around this lack of data involves digging trenches to learn more about past ruptures, collating information from lots of earthquakes all around the world and creating a statistical model of hazard, or using supercomputers to simulate a specific earthquake in a specific place with a high degree of fidelity.

However, a new framework for predicting the likelihood and impact of earthquakes over an entire region, developed by a team of researchers associated with SCEC over the past decade, has found a middle ground and perhaps a better way to ascertain risk.

A new study led by Milner and Bruce Shaw of Columbia University, published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America in January 2021, presents results from a prototype Rate-State earthquake simulator, or RSQSim, that simulates hundreds of thousands of years of seismic history in California. Coupled with another code, CyberShake, the framework can calculate the amount of shaking that would occur for each quake. Their results compare well with historical earthquakes and the results of other methods, and display a realistic distribution of earthquake probabilities.

Image: 3D view of one especially complex multi-fault rupture from the synthetic earthquake catalog. Credit: Kevin Milner, University of Southern California.

According to the developers, the new approach improves the ability to pinpoint how big an earthquake might occur in a given location, allowing building code developers, architects, and structural engineers to design more resilient buildings that can survive earthquakes at a specific site.

"For the first time, we have a whole pipeline from start to finish where earthquake occurrence and ground-motion simulation are physics-based," Milner said. "It can simulate up to 100,000s of years on a really complicated fault system."

Applying massive computer power to big problems

RSQSim transforms mathematical representations of the geophysical forces at play in earthquakes — the standard model of how ruptures nucleate and propagate — into algorithms, and then solves them on some of the most powerful supercomputers on the planet. The computationally-intensive research was enabled over several years by government-sponsored supercomputers at the Texas Advanced Computing Center, including Frontera — the most powerful system at any university in the world — Blue Waters at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, and Summit at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility.

"One way we might be able to do better in predicting risk is through physics-based modeling, by harnessing the power of systems like Frontera to run simulations," said Milner. "Instead of an empirical statistical distribution, we simulate the occurrence of earthquakes and the propagation of its waves."

"We've made a lot of progress on Frontera in determining what kind of earthquakes we can expect, on which fault, and how often," said Christine Goulet, Executive Director for Applied Science at SCEC, also involved in the work. "We don't prescribe or tell the code when the earthquakes are going to happen. We launch a simulation of hundreds of thousands of years, and just let the code transfer the stress from one fault to another."

The simulations began with the geological topography of California and simulated over 800,000 virtual years how stresses form and dissipate as tectonic forces act on the Earth. From these simulations, the framework generated a catalogue — a record that an earthquake occurred at a certain place with a certain magnitude and attributes at a given time. The catalog that the SCEC team produced on Frontera and Blue Waters was among the largest ever made, Goulet said. The outputs of RSQSim were then fed into CyberShake that again used computer models of geophysics to predict how much shaking (in terms of ground acceleration, or velocity, and duration) would occur as a result of each quake.

"The framework outputs a full slip-time history: where a rupture occurs and how it grew," Milner explained. "We found it produces realistic ground motions, which tells us that the physics implemented in the model is working as intended." They have more work planned for validation of the results, which is critical before acceptance for design applications.

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Video: “3000 Years of California Quakes - Scientific Visualization” by TACCutexas, YouTube.

The researchers found that the RSQSim framework produces rich, variable earthquakes overall – a sign it is producing reasonable results – while also generating repeatable source and path effects.

"For lots of sites, the shaking hazard goes down, relative to state-of-practice estimates" Milner said. "But for a couple of sites that have special configurations of nearby faults or local geological features, like near San Bernardino, the hazard went up. We are working to better understand these results and to define approaches to verify them."

The work is helping to determine the probability of an earthquake occurring along any of California's hundreds of earthquake-producing faults, the scale of earthquake that could be expected, and how it may trigger other quakes.

Support for the project comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Science Foundation (NSF), and the W.M. Keck Foundation. Frontera is NSF's leadership-class national resource. Compute time on Frontera was provided through a Large-Scale Community Partnership (LSCP) award to SCEC that allows hundreds of U.S. scholars access to the machine to study many aspects of earthquake science. LSCP awards provide extended allocations of up to three years to support long-lived research efforts. SCEC – which was founded in 1991 and has computed on TACC systems for over a decade — is a premier example of such an effort.

The creation of the catalog required eight days of continuous computing on Frontera and used more than 3,500 processors in parallel. Simulating the ground shaking at 10 sites across California required a comparable amount of computing on Summit, the second fastest supercomputer in the world.

"Adoption by the broader community will be understandably slow," said Milner. "Because such results will impact safety, it is part of our due diligence to make sure these results are technically defensible by the broader community," added Goulet. But research results such as these are important in order to move beyond generalized building codes that in some cases may be inadequately representing the risk a region face while in other cases being too conservative.

"The hope is that these types of models will help us better characterize seismic hazard so we're spending our resources to build strong, safe, resilient buildings where they are needed the most," Milner said.

Source: University of Texas at Austin

Full study: “Toward Physics‐Based Nonergodic PSHA: A Prototype Fully Deterministic Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200216