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petrssecrethideout · 3 days

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"Alright everyone we are back! And y'know what, instead of trying to do more of an intro, I'm just gonna leave it to you Dale."

"What? Why?"

"...you're kidding right? It's December second there's no way you're not gonna spend the whole podcast talking about cu-"

"OHHHHH YEAH! I almost forgot. Thanks for reminding me. Well folks, the cum drum challenge is finally over, and I... well I have some bad news. I didn't fill a whole barrel."

"What?"

"Yeah dude I'm really bummed about it, I feel like i let a whole bunch of people down and--SIKE! I ACTUALLY FILLED TWO!"

"Oh my god, you--"

"Hahaaaaah, I got you there didn't I? You were so worried!, but don't worry y'all, when Dale says he's going to deliver, he fucking DELIVERS!"

"So how the fuck did you manage that?"

"Ok so you know how i said I had to cum 10 times a day to make my goal, well 10 quickly turned into 14, then 23, then 34, and after that I lost count because I got this machine from a friend that jerked me off while I was sleeping, so even after I was cumming 34 times a day there was more after that."

"Jesus Christ dude, that's crazy."

"I know, I was in this constant horny haze, it felt so good, like outside of the podcast all I was doing was lifting, eating and jerkin it! Kind of felt like a vacation honestly."

"How did it affect your gains?"

"Get this: I gained 20 pounds of muscle in a month."

"NO FUCKING WAY!"

"i KNOW RIGHT! And like, I'm fucking huge so every pound at this point is an uphill battle, so, like 20!? its crazy."

"Fuck, man."

"And I'm not the only one either, I got some dms about guys who also took the challenge, and dude holy shit look at this."

"Who is that!?"

"That is.. well I'm not gonna give out full names but Douglas from North Carolina, who was a former bodybuilder, kinda got out of it, tried out the challenge, and gained.... you're not ready for this: 134 pounds in one month."

"That--there's no way that isn't possible."

"I'm telling you dude, I thought it was fake, but he's been posting on Instagram every day and its not only real, but its SO fucking hot. He said something about competing again and, dude PLEASE. I would love to flex on stage with you."

"Ok stop trying to flirt with the fans."

"Hey, we just proved that cumming as much as possible makes me get fucking huge, I think we should let me be as horny as I want now."

"Okay, fine I guess I can't argue with that anymore, but how are you feeling now?"

"My balls hurt."

"Really?"

"Yeah, I think its like the lack of stimulation. Honestly I might have to up my rates a bit. Oh, also that reminds me I have a business idea for you. You know how those people did the bathwater thing? Well I was thinking we could maybe sel--"

"No. Absolutely not. That's probably illegal."

"Ok but if it isn't can we do it? I know I'd be able to keep up with demand, and once I add a jerking off schedule to your workout plan you'd definitely be able to help"

"MY WHAT SCHEDULE??"

#ai muscle #muscle fiction #cumcast

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rainof5 · 1 day

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ward opinions (as of 12.3)

I might start liveblogging (if I do, it'll be tagged as #ward lb, so block that if you want), so I figured I might as well put out my opinions thus far.

Firstly, I went in with very low expectations, given the popular opinion of Ward. And so far, I've been very positively surprised. I really like Victoria as a narrator, and I find it a lot easier to relate to her than I did with Taylor. A lot of her thoughts and actions regarding Amy remind me of myself, and her experiences with and as the wretch sound a lot like how I've experienced dysphoria.

I like Breakthrough as a whole a lot. I find the Capricorn dynamic to be very interesting, and I fucking love Rain. Each of the characters have intriguing storylines that keeps me interesting in their development.

For storyline, I think the Hollow Point fight dragged on a bit, but I've never been super invested in fight scenes. I tend to get distracted and can't keep track of who did what, when, where, etc. I'm not able to visualize well and I can't really "picture" the fight happening as I read it, so I either have to put in a lot of effort to think logically about how things are happening or, more often, it just kind of blends together. I actually ended up taking ~6 months off from reading in the middle of 5.3 or 5.4 I think it was. That's just personal preference, though.

I'm personally much more invested in the character development and interpersonal dynamics, especially with Breakthrough.

I definitely thought the Goddess arc would be bigger and more disastrous, but I don't mind how it went. I knew that Chris eventually left the team and went with Amy, but I didn't expect it to happen like that, nor did I anticipate the Lab Rat reveal.

Currently, I'm loving the Cradle/mall cluster arc. I imagine if you don't like Rain/the mall cluster, their story would seem way too drawn out and obnoxious, but I really like it, with Rain definitely being my favorite character (at least thus far).

So far, my favorite moments have been Rain getting his haircut (I was reading it in class and had to try really hard not to cry during lecture lol. I still get teary-eyed thinking about it). I also really liked the Capricorn interludes. I relate to Byron a lot, and I don't think I've gotten so angry, especially while reading, at something in a while.

Character relationships I'm interested in seeing how they develop include Victoria and Tattletale, Victoria and Ashley, Rain and Tristan, March and Foil, Kenzie and Chicken Little, Vista and Bitch, and Victoria and Byron.

As with Worm, I'm constantly being surprised by moments of foreshadowing or just referencing small details. One example I can think of off the top of my head is the Lab Rat reveal. When it was revealed, I immediately went back to Worm to reread parts of it with this new context in mind, as well as to refresh my memory on who Lab Rat was. In Worm, he's described as "the last person one might expect to be a tinker. He had a mouth full of teeth that were screaming for braces, all crammed towards the very front of his mouth, overlapping and sticking out of lower gums" (27.3). That immediately hits two notes from what we know about Chris: 1) he has braces because him "changing" affects him physically. 2) he hid the fact that he was a tinker, claiming to be a changer instead.

I love these little details, and I'll notice some subtle foreshadowing as I read because of the things I've been spoiled on.

Of course, there are criticisms to be had (do we really need to know this character's chest size, Wildbow?), but overall, I'm really enjoying the story and characters.

#wildbow #ward #parahumans #wardblr #ward web serial #ward lb

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amiscreations · 4 months

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Any Black Veil Brides fans here? I saw them a few weeks ago at Wembley Arena and it was one of the greatest concerts everrrr! So naturally I’m becoming obsessed and every obsession starts with me doing a painting😂 so here’s one of Andy!✨

#I now fully understand why everyone loves Andy Biersack so much LMAO #HE’S GLORIOUS #Tho the whole band are so cool #I definitely wanna see them doing a headline set as they only opened for Halestorm #I also wanna actually be able to SEE properly since I could barely see shit #Even tho I was only like three rows back oop #This was also one of my first paintings in like 6 months RIP #so it’s definitely not the best but I had to do Andy justice ofc #Black Veil Brides #Black Veil Brides Army #Black Veil Brides Fans #Andy Biersack #Andy Black #Andy Sixx

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wildpokemon · 4 months

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omg i finally got platinum in returnal wtf am i supposed to do now, doing two runs a day has been part of my routine since like june..

#stupid crimson wastes and abyssal scar surveys took me MONTHS #and added another 40 hours of playtime i shit you not #just me doing more and more runs to find stupid random rooms for all the ciphers #im actually stoked tho #i honestly didnt even think id be able to play the game at all considering how genuinely difficult/punishing it is and #how limited my hands are #(ty developers for allowing controller remapping ily)#the story was so intriguing and cool and perfect for the medium that i really wanted to play myself even after #having watched my husband play almost two years ago (when i definitely couldnt have played myself lol)#i was so stoked when i actually got good enough to beat just the first boss bc it felt like i had really earned it lol #especially since i just didnt think it would be possible for me #and now i can just pick it up whenever and beat the whole thing and i rarely die at all which is sort of amazing #ive also learned i really like roguelites lmao #back when i got into hades i thought id HATE it and turns out its my new favorite thing lmao #that free god of war dlc from a month ago was super fun too #i fuckin love games #returnal #x

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opens-up-4-nobody · 1 year

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...

#it is truly so wild to go from feeling miserable and hopeless all the time for... lets look at my excel sheet #the last 23 days. then to suddenly rocket up to smiling to myself all day. the world is so fucking beautiful #for no rational reason aside from what i have to assume is a chemical shift in my body #like is this what happy ppl feel like all the time? its truely so crazy. have i always been like this?#did i not notice this was a thing? like ive definitely noticed it in the last year but like ???#my suspicion is that it doesnt actually last long enough to b considered hypomania but like idk i should see a doctor probably lol #u would think being happy would make it easier to do things but i just keep forgetting to do them and just like spacing out lol bc rn i #feel chill. even tho i need to make a list of the shit i gotta do by Friday. bleh. but idk it makes being in thr lab so much nicer bc i #mean. i still dont give a fuck abt what im doing but im like fuck it this isnt gonna b my problem in like 2-3 months. even tho im sure ill #still have to write up everything. but idk. it also makes it easier to b like. ok so i kno what my problems r lets plan yo make things not #so horrible so u dont just live a miserable life and then like die having lived a life of fear. like its so crazy how much easier thst is #to do rn??? well see how long it lasts but yea v strange. wish i could control my fucking focus tho. like that would b great #its like the fucking painting of hypnose. my focus is like a lighthouse wildly swinging its light around until it sometimes blasts me in #the face. like not helpful. i need to b able to do things.#i guess the weird thing rn is thst while i feel happy. i also have this like simmering fear of irrational things. like when i used to live #in my parents basement and i was terrified of the dark rooms down there at night. like that kind of childish baseless fear #but like im in i tiny tiny apartment lol like bro what r u scared of??? silly silly silly #idk hopefully it holds out the whole rest of the week and then i can travel and see my parents like !!! yo !!! happy vibes :-D #that would b kinda unhinged lmao. i doubt itll last thst long. its already slipped from this morning so we shall see #unrelated

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alphalesbian · 5 months

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Acting on "If you want me make it clear" has both lead me to the loneliest and most resilient spots in my life and in mostly the span of a good two years working that boundary into place

#in chronicalling my lonely genesis #mostly strongly and definitively as of recently cementing this space within that boundary and trusting its availability within myself and #then this weird start to this weird winter of weird and wide validations to this boundary among other things #like wough my head spins to think even months ago i wasnt this person. like in a big way ive started completely over in terms of a lot of #personal and deep ways related to a lot of my traumas and mental illness completely over in ways ive never even been able to do in a whole #time already of healing and its. a very painful catharsis

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ub-sessed · 1 year

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I am writing a little essay to post on Facebook about what I'm going through, workwise. This is a very rough first draft. I'm gonna post it here and let it sit for a day before I come back and clean it up.

(À mes followers francophones : Si vous voyez des erreurs dans mon texte, n'hésitez pas à m'avertir!)

Tourner la page

[English follows below.]

J'aimerais d'abord remercier tous mes collègues du plateau pour les presque dix ans de compagnie amicale et inspirant. C'est vous qui faites le movie magic, et vous le savez: Il n'y a rien qui est plus magique que d'assister à une équipe de feu dans le jus créer un nouveau monde au complet avec que leurs mains, leur imagination et leur collaboration. Personne d'autre ne peut comprendre c'est quoi travailler ensemble avec les gens comme vous-autres qui ont chacun leur propre super-pouvoir. Mes heures sur le plateau étaient les meilleurs de ma vie.

Là pour raison de santé ma vie est en plein transition.

--+--

I am intensely proud of the work I did as a script supervisor, especially of the sustained exertion it took to get that good at something that demanding, and in my second language! I feel lucky that I found my calling, that for almost a decade I got to do a job where I knew that once I got to set, all my other worries would disappear. When I was on set I was in my element, I was laser focused. I was my favourite me. I am grieving the loss of a career that I loved so much and that I worked so hard to build. (So hard. You have no idea how hard. How much effort I put into making it look easy.)

But now that I have finally acknowledged that I won't be able to go back to it, I find that I am enormously relieved. The fact is that in order to do what I did on set, I had to push myself to the very limit of my capacity when I was off set. Well beyond anything sustainable.

What a relief it is now to no longer be straining to be exceptionally good at something exceptionally difficult.

I have spent my whole life pushing myself outside of my comfort zone because that's the only way to really excel. But looking back I realize that the expectations I have set for myself have been absurd. That I have always pursued careers that were well beyond my physical capabilities, or that demanded inhumane hours, or required a level of self-discipline and self-motivation that were completely inappropriate to my temperament.

Script supervising was the closest I ever came to finding the perfect career for me, but even before I got sick, it was clear to me that the only way it would be sustainable was if I could always insist on having an assistant to do the paperwork. Very few script supervisors in the industry can demand that.

My whole life I have been told that I should be more ambitious, that something-or-other should be easy for me because I'm so smart, that if I just had the right attitude I could do things that I actually find nearly impossible. And my whole life I've felt like I was drowning.

Whenever I have tried to make a realistic assessment of my abilities and accept my limitations, I have been told that I'm being "too hard on myself" and that my "negative attitude" was what was keeping me from reaching my goals. But this misguided advice just made it harder to set healthy goals in the first place. I have spent the great majority of my adult life nowhere near my comfort zone. It was exhausting and stressful. These people were right that I should have had more self-confidence: then I would have believed that I know myself better than anybody else does.

It took being completely incapacitated by illness to realize that I have spent my entire adult life feeling inadequate for not meeting the well-meaning expectations of people with only the most superficial understanding of my situation. What a relief it is to no longer be trying to "live up to my potential".

I'm just grateful that I'm young enough that I still have a chance to build myself a life that actually goes at my own pace. A life where I put myself first.

#personal #rough draft #fuck having a career #i just want a job #definitely need to reword at least one of those push myselfs #wip #i have a lot more i want to say about how I've spent most of my life nowhere near my comfort zone #but that's a whole different essay i think #the advice to leave your comfort zone is based on the arrogant assumption that you're in your comfort zone in the first place #ok i got rid of two of the push myselfs #the two that are left kind of look like intentional repetition?#to all the people who have told me that i need to push myself harder: Do you have any idea how hard i am already pushing myself??#i have so much beef with people who assume that because something is easy for them that it must be easy for me too #or because I'm good at something they find difficult that i just also be good at things that they find easy #the buck-up encouraging You can do it! is not actually helpful if the person can't actually do it #or has to sacrifice their well-being in order to be able to do it #anyway i have spent the past couple months realizing that i put a shocking amount of effort into trying to please other people #in spite of the fact that most people see me as a hard ass who takes no bullshit

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samwisefamgee · 8 months

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also I spent all weekend watching my friends' apartments just to get into an argument the morning they got back and walk my ass home that was fun

#i feel loved i feel respected im thriving im thriving #im happy im good my relationships are crumbling im loved i have student loans to pay next month im happy i have to get a wage slave job joy #joy incarnate #i wont kill myself once i get one ill definitely live a happy and fulfilled live ill be able to move out of this moldy trailer ill get away #finally away from the family who wants me dead ill find a safe place to live with people i can love and be loved by in return and SURELY #Surely fate wont damn me in the same way it always has! surely!!! surely!!!!! it cant every time right?!?? itll work this time if i try #if i just try again itll work this time right #and even if everything goes right if i actually DO get what i want i definitely still wont want to kill myself once i have it itll go away #definitely #surely #please #at least its always worked out for everyone else with no recounted cases of people trying their whole lives for nothing. its never happened #so im good right. itll be worth it because surely nothing bad happened to folks who keep trying #gang its worth it to keep trying right #fellas is it gay to be damned by the reality that hope is something you give yourself; that finding inner strength doesnt mean youll be ok?#im so fucking sick of everyone who says itll be ok #hope is something we need without any doubt but spare me the fucking idealism

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opia-jpg · 10 months

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#i have a light feeling that my mom might be hinting at something #with the whole. mentioning my mood swings and sensory issues and poor social skills and such #i say i'm unsure because she's not one to be subtle in situations like this? so i feel like i'm projecting #but she did suggest (partially related) going to a psychologist #and the thing about me is that i'm very self aware about my many flaws and therefore have decided #that i can't fix them or that it's not that bad as long as *i know* the issue is there #which is starting to sound like an issue in itself? but i feel like im being way too dramatic every time #i know i'm just in a stressful spot in my life and that it will pass in a few months #but i am starting to seriously consider getting an outsider's perspective. just in case #im feeling down *all* the time lately but there's always a reason to blame so i feel like it's just rotten luck and not something within me #there's not enough time but also too much of it for me to make excuses for not being able to do Anything at all and i feel paralyzed #but isn't it just the everyday terror of being in charge of yourself #i wish i could come up with a definite answer but there isn't one and the childish part of me is so frustrated with it #i have a fantasy of violently breaking my arms that doesn't lead anywhere i just feel the urge consistently enough that it's a pattern #(ive never self harmed i know i won't that's why it's just a fantasy)#i crave complete anonymity i crave deep genuine human connection and i don't want to talk to anyone. ever again.#ive talked with at least three different people partially about those thoughts #but talking about it is difficult and like pulling teeth #im clumsy with my words. can't quite find the precise meaning i want. i stutter and hum and mumble #i hate talking but if i don't i will explode #i want to be taken seriously but saying things outloud makes them sound so harsh and i don't know if it is that serious #but it's a pebble of thought that i can't stop turning around in my head over and over and over until im sick #never! ending! story! jesus christ #vent post #← tagging just in case #pretend you've never read it

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funkervogt · 2 years

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Ok has anyone with a minor tic been able to get rid of it cause this shit is getting annoyingggggg

#Im able to suppress it but only when i remember to lol. Its like #Its a head tilt at the apex of a deep breath or at the thought of something i dont wanna think about. ITS ANNOYING TF OUT OF ME #And its like embarassing idk like its barely noticeable because it probably just looks like a bug flew by my ear #Whatever. Had it in 2020 for the whole summer then it went away so i thought nothing of it and now its back. For about 2 months now maybe 3 #I dont fuckin know😁#Im hesitant to call it a tic but like it happens automatically and i definitely did not train myself to do it...Idk girl. The human mind.

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orcelito · 2 years

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see the problem with planning out the remainder of the fic is that i have so many thoughts and scene ideas and i have like 3 more months of game time to put them in

how am i supposed to lay all this out? i just now got another scene idea to address a current conflict & this idea didnt exist like 2 minutes ago. it’s Impossible to account for everything i’ll be doing.

#speculation nation #discacc shit #i do think i wanna build up a document tho. for like. recording these things #and roughly placing them in sections. aka planning!#something that normal writers do. which i have Not bc i uhhh idk i just havent needed to #now im just staring at the calendar and trying to place things for the next month in discacc lmao #bc i forgot about the cultural festival. the general events around it will have changed but it's still smth to account for #and it does get in the way of what i had in mind previously lol #..............................oh no #just got the idea of like. uh. having a set calendar that records definite events #which would be great for future planning BUT my brain just went like #'haha what if i went and did this for the entirety of the fic beforehand' and. :|#a uhhh project i guess for whenever my next reread is. god help my soul.#like im talking a whole big document that records every set event onto each day it happens #which i followed the calendar pretty closely so it could be recorded. it would just take a lot.#but how cool would it be to see essentially an itemized list of things that happened in discacc and when they happened #my encyclopedic knowledge of my fic is not enough. i need to be able to hold it in my hands in a Document #perhaps this is a better idea than trying to plan out set chapters of discacc bc that is never going to work lol #oh... why am i like this...#lmao me being Like This tho is what's got us this 467k words fic. so like. could be worse!#uhmm i need to work on my quiz before i can do any of this. cant be falling behind in school too much

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be-good-to-bugs · 25 days

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crying shouldnt cause headaches, thats just cruel honestly.

#the bin #i went through to figure out costs more and im most likely not gonna be abek to bring almost any of my belongings #i can probably manage to at least bring my pets. my sisters boyfriends cat cant tow and it doesnt have a lot of space in it so im not gonna #have much room for anything at all. i guess maybe its a good thing my sister wont be coming then :/#honestly. im not actually THAT upset. he seems fairly chill and respectful of my boundaries. moreso than my fuckin sister is. not that thats #hard to accomplish. if i set a boundry with her she will most likely break it repeatedly and then also refuse to apologize #im still uncomfortable with it but not much more than i was with going with her anyway. i van just keep earbuds in the whole time probably #im really upset that ill have to leave my stuff here though. with her. i hate that. and im also probably not gonna have a bed when i move #and ill be sleeping on the concrete basement floor so uh. that sucks. a lot. my aunt probably has an air mattress i casn borror for a bit #im also probably gonna see if i can convince my sister to let me take one of her beta fish and the one tank she has for it. its a small tank #so i could easily bring it. its too smalm for the poor thing but its gonna be in that if it comes with me or her so. and i wanna get it #something better. ive become pretty attached to it after taking care of it for the past 4 months. ugh the fact she just ditched me with her #fish pissed me off so much too. not to mention the snakes were supposed to be a shared pet but she just stopped dling anything ever and it #became exclusively my responsibility to care for them and pay for all their stuff. she should not have pets of any kinda #im trying blt to be really upset. i can hopefully bring my most important belongings at least. his car isnt THAT small. and then ill only #need to pay for the gas and thats it and i can definitely afford that. hhhh. ill figure it out. i hate this :/#my head hurts so bad from having a 2 hour long meltdown. im so upset over our whole relationship and everything #she just keeps doing selfish things over and over again and treating me like an idiot for not knowing things she didnt tell me #specifically treating me like im stupid for not knowing she isnt gonna be able do what she specifically told me she could #im im so mad at her for the ditching me and the repeatedly taking advantage of me specifically for money and fucking me over #wnd everything before that. our whole relationship. im seo stressed abt this. i have nobody now.#i hate her so much. im glad i can clearly see how abusive things have always been bug it doenst make it sting any less #and it doenst helo the fact she continues this behavior now too

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clownboy-yeehonk · 5 months

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I did it! I skiid today! It was the first time since I tore my acl and broke my wrist, and I literally felt the seasonal depression leave my body! That, combined with the sheer relief that I can still ski and enjoy skiing even if I have a long way to go until I'm back to the level I was at before the whole acl episode, I'm just...so happy and relieved. Like I shed tears at one point during a run.

#i was so fucking scared the whole 2 hour drive up #and every time i hit a bump or unexpected ice i felt my heart in my throat and almost shit my pants #but it got better #im definitely sore and i have a lot of work to do but thank GOD i can still enjoy skiing even if im not as good as i was before #like it hurt dont get me wrong but it hurt in a way that i can easily ignore #ive been stressed about this since i found out my mri results like 9 months ago it feels so so SO good to be able to let that one go #i love skiing i still love skiing i dont have to give it up i dont have to want to give it up

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mostlysignssomeportents · 5 months

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What kind of bubble is AI?

My latest column for Locus Magazine is "What Kind of Bubble is AI?" All economic bubbles are hugely destructive, but some of them leave behind wreckage that can be salvaged for useful purposes, while others leave nothing behind but ashes:

https://locusmag.com/2023/12/commentary-cory-doctorow-what-kind-of-bubble-is-ai/

Think about some 21st century bubbles. The dotcom bubble was a terrible tragedy, one that drained the coffers of pension funds and other institutional investors and wiped out retail investors who were gulled by Superbowl Ads. But there was a lot left behind after the dotcoms were wiped out: cheap servers, office furniture and space, but far more importantly, a generation of young people who'd been trained as web makers, leaving nontechnical degree programs to learn HTML, perl and python. This created a whole cohort of technologists from non-technical backgrounds, a first in technological history. Many of these people became the vanguard of a more inclusive and humane tech development movement, and they were able to make interesting and useful services and products in an environment where raw materials – compute, bandwidth, space and talent – were available at firesale prices.

Contrast this with the crypto bubble. It, too, destroyed the fortunes of institutional and individual investors through fraud and Superbowl Ads. It, too, lured in nontechnical people to learn esoteric disciplines at investor expense. But apart from a smattering of Rust programmers, the main residue of crypto is bad digital art and worse Austrian economics.

Or think of Worldcom vs Enron. Both bubbles were built on pure fraud, but Enron's fraud left nothing behind but a string of suspicious deaths. By contrast, Worldcom's fraud was a Big Store con that required laying a ton of fiber that is still in the ground to this day, and is being bought and used at pennies on the dollar.

AI is definitely a bubble. As I write in the column, if you fly into SFO and rent a car and drive north to San Francisco or south to Silicon Valley, every single billboard is advertising an "AI" startup, many of which are not even using anything that can be remotely characterized as AI. That's amazing, considering what a meaningless buzzword AI already is.

So which kind of bubble is AI? When it pops, will something useful be left behind, or will it go away altogether? To be sure, there's a legion of technologists who are learning Tensorflow and Pytorch. These nominally open source tools are bound, respectively, to Google and Facebook's AI environments:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/08/18/openwashing/#you-keep-using-that-word-i-do-not-think-it-means-what-you-think-it-means

But if those environments go away, those programming skills become a lot less useful. Live, large-scale Big Tech AI projects are shockingly expensive to run. Some of their costs are fixed – collecting, labeling and processing training data – but the running costs for each query are prodigious. There's a massive primary energy bill for the servers, a nearly as large energy bill for the chillers, and a titanic wage bill for the specialized technical staff involved.

Once investor subsidies dry up, will the real-world, non-hyperbolic applications for AI be enough to cover these running costs? AI applications can be plotted on a 2X2 grid whose axes are "value" (how much customers will pay for them) and "risk tolerance" (how perfect the product needs to be).

Charging teenaged D&D players $10 month for an image generator that creates epic illustrations of their characters fighting monsters is low value and very risk tolerant (teenagers aren't overly worried about six-fingered swordspeople with three pupils in each eye). Charging scammy spamfarms $500/month for a text generator that spits out dull, search-algorithm-pleasing narratives to appear over recipes is likewise low-value and highly risk tolerant (your customer doesn't care if the text is nonsense). Charging visually impaired people $100 month for an app that plays a text-to-speech description of anything they point their cameras at is low-value and moderately risk tolerant ("that's your blue shirt" when it's green is not a big deal, while "the street is safe to cross" when it's not is a much bigger one).

Morganstanley doesn't talk about the trillions the AI industry will be worth some day because of these applications. These are just spinoffs from the main event, a collection of extremely high-value applications. Think of self-driving cars or radiology bots that analyze chest x-rays and characterize masses as cancerous or noncancerous.

These are high value – but only if they are also risk-tolerant. The pitch for self-driving cars is "fire most drivers and replace them with 'humans in the loop' who intervene at critical junctures." That's the risk-tolerant version of self-driving cars, and it's a failure. More than $100b has been incinerated chasing self-driving cars, and cars are nowhere near driving themselves:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/10/09/herbies-revenge/#100-billion-here-100-billion-there-pretty-soon-youre-talking-real-money

Quite the reverse, in fact. Cruise was just forced to quit the field after one of their cars maimed a woman – a pedestrian who had not opted into being part of a high-risk AI experiment – and dragged her body 20 feet through the streets of San Francisco. Afterwards, it emerged that Cruise had replaced the single low-waged driver who would normally be paid to operate a taxi with 1.5 high-waged skilled technicians who remotely oversaw each of its vehicles:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html

The self-driving pitch isn't that your car will correct your own human errors (like an alarm that sounds when you activate your turn signal while someone is in your blind-spot). Self-driving isn't about using automation to augment human skill – it's about replacing humans. There's no business case for spending hundreds of billions on better safety systems for cars (there's a human case for it, though!). The only way the price-tag justifies itself is if paid drivers can be fired and replaced with software that costs less than their wages.

What about radiologists? Radiologists certainly make mistakes from time to time, and if there's a computer vision system that makes different mistakes than the sort that humans make, they could be a cheap way of generating second opinions that trigger re-examination by a human radiologist. But no AI investor thinks their return will come from selling hospitals that reduce the number of X-rays each radiologist processes every day, as a second-opinion-generating system would. Rather, the value of AI radiologists comes from firing most of your human radiologists and replacing them with software whose judgments are cursorily double-checked by a human whose "automation blindness" will turn them into an OK-button-mashing automaton:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/08/23/automation-blindness/#humans-in-the-loop

The profit-generating pitch for high-value AI applications lies in creating "reverse centaurs": humans who serve as appendages for automation that operates at a speed and scale that is unrelated to the capacity or needs of the worker:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/04/17/revenge-of-the-chickenized-reverse-centaurs/

But unless these high-value applications are intrinsically risk-tolerant, they are poor candidates for automation. Cruise was able to nonconsensually enlist the population of San Francisco in an experimental murderbot development program thanks to the vast sums of money sloshing around the industry. Some of this money funds the inevitabilist narrative that self-driving cars are coming, it's only a matter of when, not if, and so SF had better get in the autonomous vehicle or get run over by the forces of history.

Once the bubble pops (all bubbles pop), AI applications will have to rise or fall on their actual merits, not their promise. The odds are stacked against the long-term survival of high-value, risk-intolerant AI applications.

The problem for AI is that while there are a lot of risk-tolerant applications, they're almost all low-value; while nearly all the high-value applications are risk-intolerant. Once AI has to be profitable – once investors withdraw their subsidies from money-losing ventures – the risk-tolerant applications need to be sufficient to run those tremendously expensive servers in those brutally expensive data-centers tended by exceptionally expensive technical workers.

If they aren't, then the business case for running those servers goes away, and so do the servers – and so do all those risk-tolerant, low-value applications. It doesn't matter if helping blind people make sense of their surroundings is socially beneficial. It doesn't matter if teenaged gamers love their epic character art. It doesn't even matter how horny scammers are for generating AI nonsense SEO websites:

https://twitter.com/jakezward/status/1728032634037567509

These applications are all riding on the coattails of the big AI models that are being built and operated at a loss in order to be profitable. If they remain unprofitable long enough, the private sector will no longer pay to operate them.

Now, there are smaller models, models that stand alone and run on commodity hardware. These would persist even after the AI bubble bursts, because most of their costs are setup costs that have already been borne by the well-funded companies who created them. These models are limited, of course, though the communities that have formed around them have pushed those limits in surprising ways, far beyond their original manufacturers' beliefs about their capacity. These communities will continue to push those limits for as long as they find the models useful.

These standalone, "toy" models are derived from the big models, though. When the AI bubble bursts and the private sector no longer subsidizes mass-scale model creation, it will cease to spin out more sophisticated models that run on commodity hardware (it's possible that Federated learning and other techniques for spreading out the work of making large-scale models will fill the gap).

So what kind of bubble is the AI bubble? What will we salvage from its wreckage? Perhaps the communities who've invested in becoming experts in Pytorch and Tensorflow will wrestle them away from their corporate masters and make them generally useful. Certainly, a lot of people will have gained skills in applying statistical techniques.

But there will also be a lot of unsalvageable wreckage. As big AI models get integrated into the processes of the productive economy, AI becomes a source of systemic risk. The only thing worse than having an automated process that is rendered dangerous or erratic based on AI integration is to have that process fail entirely because the AI suddenly disappeared, a collapse that is too precipitous for former AI customers to engineer a soft landing for their systems.

This is a blind spot in our policymakers debates about AI. The smart policymakers are asking questions about fairness, algorithmic bias, and fraud. The foolish policymakers are ensnared in fantasies about "AI safety," AKA "Will the chatbot become a superintelligence that turns the whole human race into paperclips?"

https://pluralistic.net/2023/11/27/10-types-of-people/#taking-up-a-lot-of-space

But no one is asking, "What will we do if" – when – "the AI bubble pops and most of this stuff disappears overnight?"

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/12/19/bubblenomics/#pop

Image: Cryteria (modified) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HAL9000.svg

CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en

tom_bullock (modified) https://www.flickr.com/photos/tombullock/25173469495/

CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

#pluralistic #ai #economics #business #hype #bubbles #bubblenomics #residue

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gloxk · 7 months

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Please give us sum eren & armin toxic hc Like armin and eren would be two different types of toxic. Ex!boyfriend eren blowing ur back out n sending it to ur bf or whoever ur talking to n ex!boyfriend armin not being able to take you talking to someone else so he fucks you a party or smth idk go crazy. 🤰🏾.

“Yeah my ex is crazy.”

A/N: No bc they are two completely different types of toxic. Like idk how to explain it? I js feel like eren is the type of ex to be petty and trifling. But armin..omg..armin goes off the fucking deep end. But i love my lil psychos🤭.

WARNING!: A lil fluff , toxic behavior, unhealthy relationships, smut, unprotected s*x, Blackmailing, Mentions of offing someone, obsession, controlling, plus other things . +17 mdni

EREN! Please for the love of god don’t let Eren find out you fucking with someone else. This man will go from nonchalant to crazy. “Oh word? This what we doing?”. He disregards the fact yall broke up a whole month ago.

He would definitely blow up your phone after seeing a post on instagram. “Who is he?” & “He fuck you better then me?”. Oh and please don’t tell him yes. Because let me warn you. He will be right there at that door knocking.

“You know you fucking lyin. But ight we gon see.” He hung up the phone and you laughed at him. Who gave this man an ego? Did he really think he was the only man with good dick?

You were confused when you heard a knock on your door but to your surprise, it was eren. “What the fuck?” he pushed right passed you walking into your apartment. “Nah, don’t fucking play with me y/n.” You could tell he was pissed just by his voice.

This man wasted no time bending you over the couch and fucking you right there.

“Nobody could fuck you better the me.” He grabbed a fists full of your hair pulling you up to his mouth.“You belong to me. Don’t ever let me find out there’s someone other than me fucking you like this.” and to be quite frank, nobody could fuck you like eren.

Eren talked you through the whole thing. He knew he was rough with you, but god he couldn’t help it. So that’s why he praised you for taking his dick so well <3.

He took out his phone and pressed record. His hard thrust drove lewd moans from your lips. “Fuck right there!” you screamed every time his hips slapped your ass. He made sure he got glimpse of your face so the guy knew it was you. He made sure you screamed his name just to prove who you belonged to.

You got so many miss calls while eren fucked you to sleep. Every time ole boy called eren went faster. <3

You woke up alone, your bed empty. Your phone notifications were through the roof. Over 100 notifications from that guy. It was crazy. But a simple text from eren stuck out. “Let me hear word about you fucking w some again. Next time ima put em in a casket.”

You weren’t sure if he was joking or not. But one thing you did know was he made every threat a promise. And he always kept his promises.

ARMIN! Lawd, you let armin find out you even thought about some one else fucking you, it was over.

This man went full psychotic when word got to him about you talking to someone guy. Apparently you were at a party grinding all up against him.

The first thing armin did was collect every drop of information he had on this guy. His home address, His mother’s facebook, His phone number, Job number. He knew too much on the fucker who decided to touch his pretty “girlfriend”.

It pissed him off, how dare you try to replace him. He blew up your phone to the point it crashed. “That’s so fucking cute, y/n. You think that you can just go fuck some other guy?” , “Please don’t make me do something crazy.” . The crazy part was you didn’t even fuck the guy, he was just fucking crazy. He always assumed you were cheating for some reason.

When you didn’t answer his calls he pulled up expeditiously. if you didn’t answer within the 30 minute window he wouldn’t wait to show up to your door.

“Y/n open this goddamn door.” He banged on the door. It was 2 am- oh yeah he knew you had work later, he didn’t care.

As soon as you open the door an argument ensued. “Pick up the fucking phone when I call you y/n” He yelled at you slamming the door behind him. “You ain’t my fucking boyfriend Armin. Ion gotta do shit.”

He never made you regret your words so fast. His nails dug into your hips as his pace increased. “Ain’t yo fucking boyfriend huh? Then why you letting me fuck you raw?”

Your bed was a mess after he made you cum over and over again. After he was done all you could do was mumble incoherently ‘Nobody is better then you’. He was rough but his after care made up for it <3.

He kissed your forehead before he nuzzled into your chest. “You’re the best I ever had.” he soon fell asleep after those words left his mouth.

I love my cute lil crazy guys <3

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