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#so I csn read straight through
bookwyrminspiration · 2 months
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been waiting for MONTHS im starting my acod reread <333. I will either not shut up about it at ALL (in which case block the “a chorus of dragons” tag) or I will be so engrossed I forget how to function I can’t wait <333
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snaillock · 8 months
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noo, bc i fucking feel yall. bc a fic i read thr other day?!? "gn!reader" the next line is "reader could arguable be considered afab" and then out of no where the fic uses female anatomy terms??? the reader is not "arguably" afab. it is afab, and a warning tag like "afab!reader, but no pronouns used" would have been a better explanation for your fic.
i fucking DESPISE when people do that and refuse to put the actual gender of the reader in the actual post or the tags. its really not that hard. as someone who writes both female and male readers, i know how to tell my viewers which one they are so they csn steer clear of something they dont like. its just female readers r considered "the standard" or "the default" with both female and male characters. (finding fem char x male reader is the hardest thing on earth omg but anyways)
and untagged drabbles are the WORST at this. there's no gendered tag and no warning at the top of the post so i assume the reader is gender neutral only to ve bombarded with fem terms. even if a creator doesnt want to put the reader's gender in the fic warnings, but it in the tags. it really isnt that hardddd. all tumblr writers need to have a seminar about tagging fics correctly and stating what is actually in your fic. or we all need to learn a03 etiquette or smth. bc being a male reader sucks😭
(srry sbout this rant. i just needed to say it)
nsfw mentions for anyone else reading!
dude yesterday i saw a fic that was legit tagged “gn reader, reader is called mama.” like how is that a coherent statement. it’s almost comical to me. one of infinite examples of what it’s like to look for fics on tumblr. like im BEGGING and PLEADING to people to think about what the neutral part of gn means.
i hate also when writers do “gn!reader that could be seen as female” when 90% of the fic makes it so so obvious like shut up that’s totally fem reader.
when people use afab as some cool fancy ass synonym for woman also irks the shit out of me but that’s a whole other conversation.
i fucking wish putting “character x female reader” or whatever gender in the actual tags itself was a much more common practice so filtering would actually do something. unfortunately the only people who actually do it consistently are of course the ones who write male reader fics.
like people shouldn’t be allowed to leave their fics untagged if it isn’t 100% gender neutral. like give me some indication god please. it’s even worse when i’m going through the blue lock tag so most of it is just untagged fem smut drabbles so it’s like a double smack in the face for me. like give me a heads up at the very least.
honestly i should just start fining people whenever they screw up with their tags. like straight up start demanding money for emotional damage charges.
(speaking of fem char x male reader, once i transition into more multifandom, i’m for sure gonna start doing those as well. the lack of them just makes me so so sad)
also don’t worry about ranting bc im so glad i have yet another chance to complain about this for the second time today. being mad about this stuff is like the whole reason why i even made this blog
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gainerboystories · 4 years
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Farm hands forced weight gain
A small town in North Carolina we see Jack a slim 18 year old that is looking for work, hes only slim no muscle or fat, a blank slate you can say. The town is very small with only a population of around 50 people, the town has only a few places to work most people resorting to working on farms. So jack accepts his fate, as much as he doesnt like the idea, and jumps in his truck to the nearest farm that he knows will hire him.
After driving about 7 miles, Jake arives at 'David's Ranch' as Jack reads on the wooden sign. He dives through the enterance and down the long dirt road with feilds spread across both sides, the right pigs and left cows blocked of with a long wooden fence from the enterance down about half a mile. After the feilds they is a large dirt area, straight infrount of the road is a small cabin, to the right is a large white and red barn and the left is a area holding all the farm equipment and a large truck with hay bales in the back.
Jack pulls in front of the small cabin and starts to get out of his truck, and walks up to the cabin, the cabin has a little raised deck just before the mesh door with the main doordoor open on the inside. He does a little knock on the wood near the door at first but nobody answers, then one a little lowder. Through the mesh Jack sees a large towering figure coming around the corner at the back of the cabin, walking quickly towards the door. The man unlocks and opens the mesh door and speaks in a raspy tone, "Hello?", Jack looking up at the incredibly tall man exsames him, hes shirtless, huge muscles covered with a thick fur of hair, giant feet and hands, and at least 7 foot tall. "I said hello...", Jack looks back up at him and says worryingly, "urm hello, i was wondering if you was in the need of a farm hand?". The man looks Jack up and down like Jack did to him. "Little small for a farm hand, are you sure", Jack replied "yes ive been doing manual labour most my life". The man pauses, then reponds "so if you wanna work on this farm its gonna be long hours, sometimes 12 hours", jack reluctantly agrees. The man holds out his hand for a shake and says, "im David", jack lifts his arm and places his tiny hand in David's palm, "im Jack".
"Come in Jack i can talk to you about work".
They enter an Jack is hit by a smell of Davids Bo, whats the point of wearing deoderant when your alone in the middle if nowhere. The cabin is small a living area to the right as you walk in, a small kitchen in the back right corner behind a large brormwn leather recliner, which David sts his large body into. To the left is two doors, one to a bedroom and the other a toilet. "You wanna sit down boy?", David pounts to the other Brown recliner in the corner of the room, Jack then sits his small body into the chair, he doesn't fill even half of the chair. "So boy heres what needs doing, the cows need milking, the pigs need weighing, rhe chickens need the eggs collected, the equipment needs cleaning, and then we need to place haybales in the feilds and then we should be done, its 10am now we should be done abround 8pm, you ready?", Jack not knowing if he will survive the dah nods, "dont look sceared boy, you wanted to be my farm hand, come on we can do it together... dont worry one day you'll the the same size as me", Jack looks at the big burly shirtless man and thinks of what hell look like with all that muscle, a dream he thought.
"Done" david shouted, its been hours and they are both exhausted, under the now setting sun, jack and David start to walk back to the Cabin. Jack now shurtless due to him sweating like crazy, says "i guess i better be heading home", "what?" David responds "you thinks you can drive home like that youll pass out before you get to the end of the road to the enterance, you can stay here tonight, ill make dinner". Jack to exhausted to argue renters the cabin and suts in the recliner he sat in when he first entered the cabin, "do you have a shower?" Jack asked, "haha nope" david took a pause "to expensive plus if i wanna be clean i use the hose pipe outside". Jack falls asleep while David is sleeping.
David cooks for about an hour or so, then wakes up Jack. "Hey boy, you ready to live like a real man on the farm?" Jack still waking up nods, David continues "so you wanna look like a farmer too", jack nods again. David then makes a drink for jack and pours in some white powder out of a black tub, "this will help with that" David said quietly, he drings the food and drink to Jack "eat up Jack you hav a big day tomorrow".
Finished his meal jack asks "where do i sleep?", "eather in here or in my bed, if you csn fit". Jack just wanting to sleep in a nice soft bed asks " can i sleep in the bed" David says "of course, where farmer together now" . Jack and David walk to the bedroom, its simple just a bed some photos, david unbuckles his belt and pulls down his jeans showing of his white underwear, stained and showing a huge bulge, Jack then dose the same and they get in bed, jack falls asleep instantly.
In the morning Jack wakes, his belly a little bigger due to the large meal and spesial drink David gave him, but not rally hurting his thin fram.
After many months, the days murge into the same and Jack ends up moving into the cabin. His body now changed, every day his meals getting larger to adjust to his growing body. Now almost a year after meeting David he looks like the average farmer, 300lbs of a mix of fat and muscle, a big beer belly, is now what he looks like.
The day ends, David and Jack are about to do their dayly ritual of making as much food as posible and eating it, Jack eating more of course, then washing it all down with a crate of beer. After Jacks second can he feels tired and passes out in his chair, the last thing he sees is Davids evil smile.
He a wakes in the barn that he has worked in all this time tied to the back wall, the door is open a crack but the rest of the barn is black. After a while the figuree if a man apears at the door its David. "Hey boy, youll be a man soon, awww are you wondering why your tied here and gaged with that funnle, well im gonna faten you up and turn you into a food obsessed pig. Ive always wanted this, in a few years youll be massive and want to worship me." David pours gainer shake after gainer shake into the funnle. After weeks of this Jack has already gained 50lbs now at 350lbs. David then trusts Jacl to take the gag off and untie him. "What do you want to do boy?" Jack responds in a drone type voice "eat sir, eat and worship you sir", "good boy, now eat this 3 layer cake while i jerk off to you been a pig, David places a huge 3 layer cake on the floor and Jack drags his now huge boy to it and eats it all up.
After months his body grows 400lbs in a month 500lbs in 3 months and then 1000lbs in a year. At the year mark Jack is just a large ball of fat sat on hay in the barn been fed endlessly byby his new master. In these months many other farm hands have joined the farm and come to the sane predicament as Jack, locked away in the barn watch eachother grow and become more submisive begging their master to let them suck his cock, but he never does just teases them, its a mix of heaven and hell for the boys, and constant heaven for David.
If you want to request a story DM me. Or comment on my posts.
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fandom-necromancer · 5 years
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092 - continuation
Fandom: Detroit become human | Ship: Reed900
‘Just what on earth do you think you are doing, Reed?!’ Gavin had exactly twenty minutes of peace after entering the precinct the next day. Then Hank had stormed over like a rabid dog, beating his hands down on the desk and staring at him with a fury hot enough to melt steel. ‘I’m drinking my coffee.’ Gavin kept his outer appearance of being unphased by the angry lieutenant. His mind felt numb ever since he read that messages in the parking lot yesterday. He hated this feeling. It was far easier to be angry, to feel awful, to lash out or to regret. This numbness was rare for Gavin, who had always felt strong emotions and didn’t hide them like all the others – but not unfamiliar. No, he knew this numbness like a brother. It was a sign of him having phcked up again.
‘What the hell did you do to him?’ ‘Cut it down, daddy overprotective. I have not a clue what you are talking about.’ ‘Oh, you don’t?’ Hank lifted his body out of Gavin’s personal space to walk over to the adjacent desk and lean on the chair. RK900’s chair. RK900’s empty chair. ‘I thought you were a detective. Spot the phcking difference in the room!’ ‘I can see officer Person is slacking off again.’ Gavin refused to let the man pull him out of his cloud of indifference. He didn’t know what would happen would he switch on his emotions again. ‘You can see-‘ Hank turned around to look at the man playing on his phone, only visible due to RK900’s vacant desk, because….
Because Nines was gone. Gavin had managed to burn through another partner and was sure to never get one assigned again. He should be happy about this. Why was he not happy about being alone again?
‘Okay you fucking asshole, I’m not doing this for you, I’m doing this for Nines, just so you know. But you better get up, follow me outside and take a smoke break. Because I would rather not discuss this in public unless you force me to.’ ‘I’m not going anywhere.’ Hank grabbed him by the coat-tail and hissed: ‘You are taking a smoke break right now, or I’ll beat you up here and now in front of everyone and pull your unconscious body outside. I don’t care.’ Gavin looked at the Lieutenant, maybe for the first time really seeing the other since this conversation started. It had been long since he last saw the man this angry. It had been shortly after Anderson’s child died, and he drunkenly had started a fight with some criminal in the interrogation room. But he was sober now. He was simply angry as fuck. Knowing in what condition the perp had ended up, Gavin rose from his desk and followed the Lieutenant outside.
It took him by surprise that the man shoved him against a wall as soon as the door fell shut. ‘You are an asshole Reed. A fucking asshole. It would need a new word to describe just how much of an asshole you are.’ ‘Okay, cut the bullshit, I know what I am. Just tell me what I did wrong apparently.’ ‘Apparently? Apparently? I tell you what you did: You let a newly deviated android lose faith!’ Gavin didn’t want to laugh at that but couldn’t stop it. ‘Hank. It’s just. A phcking. Machine! I know you project all kinda stuff into them, but it is a robot. Wiring and programs. They cannot have faith.’ ‘Do you really think that Reed? Do you really think that after working with Nines? God, did you even know him? Are you that blind?’ ‘Enlighten me, smartass.’
‘He chose to be your partner, you know that?’ ‘Yeah I know!’, Gavin punched back hoping to mask the fact he had learned it only yesterday. ‘You know. And do you know why?’ Gavin stayed silent, causing Hank to shake him and shove him against the wall again. ‘Do you know why?’ ‘No. Why should I?’ ‘Because he wanted to!’, Hank ignored his question. ‘Because he was fascinated from what he read about you!’ Again Gavin stayed quiet in defeat, letting the Lieutenant explain. Maybe somewhere inside he did care or at least was interested in why anyone would deem him anything else but a failure, let alone fascinating. ‘Markus contacted us as Jericho raided the Cyberlife tower in search for any androids left in their shipping halls. What they didn’t expect was a second Connor – a prototype of a RK900 series. They should have become soldiers or police officers for the more gun-heavy occasions. Basically, a walking, talking shield for humans. And a central piece in Amanda’s plan taking over the revolution.’ ‘Why are you telling me this, Hank, it’s not like-‘ ‘Will you shut up already! Markus contacted me about the unit, and I took him in. Connor thinks of him as a brother and he is family. But he was restless. He wasn’t able to just live idling in our home. If he was sitting on the couch watching TV, even I could see his stress levels rising. Once, he petted Sumo and started overheating, desperately asking for a task. I jokingly told him to count the dog’s hairs and in the middle of the night he came into the bedroom with an actual number! He was clearly searching for a purpose, for something to occupy him and keep him from dying of boredom. He asked what we were working on. As he learned of Detective work, he was immediately caught on the idea. But he didn’t feel it was right to simply waltz in. He did the tests, Reed. He completed the human tests, graduated. Well, he rushed through it in a few months, but out of him and Connor he really deserves the title officially. In all that time he searched for someone his calibre. Someone he could work with and someone he could learn a few things from. Someone he might find his purpose in. It took him longer to find a partner than completing his training at the academy. And who he ended up with is you, Reed. He thought you would be that ideal partner for him. We tried to talk him out of it, expecting something like this to happen. We warned him of you, Gavin. And you know? He defended you. He stood up for you to the point we actually had a fight at home over this. But he stayed stubborn and simply did what he wanted to.’
Hank had calmed down a bit and let go of Gavin’s clothes. ‘He looked up to you, Gavin. He saw something in you – god knows what. You telling him to leave… Can you imagine what that meant to him?’ Gavin had to process all he just heard. He had the explanation, but he still couldn’t understand how out of all police officers in Detroit, hell, out of all humans in Detroit anyone would chose him despite knowing who he was. ‘Why did you chose to hate him, Reed?’ Hank had backed down and Gavin could see this bullshit about family had been the truth. The big drunkard had taken Connor in, yes, but he was concerned about Nines, too. Gavin was averted to the whole family-stuff, maybe because of his own phcked-up past. ‘Is it because he’s an android? Did he do anything to you? Is it just your asshole-attitude or is there any reason he has given you?’
‘Shut up.’ Gavin had been pulled to the edge of his numbness and he knew if he decided to let his emotions run free, he would succumb right there on the sidewalk. Maybe kill Hank afterwards and then find the tin-can and trash it before regretting it afterwards. Not a good future. So, he fought them down again, hoping to maintain the situation until he was home. ‘As if I care for a phcking machine.’ But his tone slipped, the truth seeping out. He felt phcking guilty. Ever since he read these messages. Now that he knew more it amplified it. He felt terrible and over a goddamn android! That made it even worse. ‘I’ll go home. Don’t you phcking touch me ever again!’
He had walked straight through the bullpen and made his way to the door, ignoring anyone who might try talking to him. Mechanically he sat down in the car and looked at his phone, the messages still open. I’m sorry I couldn’t live up to your expectations. You were the most interesting, competent and worthwhile option. I don’t know what I did to turn you away. I regret not having the chance to get to know you better. Best of luck. ‘Phck!’ There were the emotions again. Why couldn’t he be happy about the damn robot leaving? It was all he ever wished for since the plastic prick entered the precinct. And now he was close to tears in his car, still standing in the DPD parking lot. It wasn’t because of the android. God, at least he hoped it wasn’t. It was because he managed to phck up again. Just another evidence that Gavin Reed was a human failure and didn’t manage to make anything work. He didn’t deserve anything if all he did was destroy and phck up. He didn’t- Stop. Drive home. Get drunk. Cry your phcking eyes out. Get your shit back together and continue. It had worked until now, it would continue to help. Good plan. No, terrible plan, but the only one there was.
 Half a bottle later Gavin had broken down on the kitchen table, the messages open on his phone and Hank’s words in his ears. Any amount of alcohol would only make them both angrier and louder. Shit, he wanted to get out of this shitty situation. He could push it all down again and forget it, but he didn’t know how to look Hank in the eye ever again. Or he could apologize. What would bring him nothing but embarrassment. But he was drunk enough to forget about that detail as he grabbed the phone.
Hey, tin-csn, O’m sorry. There was a millisecond of the last sober brain cell hesitating, but all others managed to press send.
23:45 >Detective?
‘Phck.’ Why did he do this? Why was he about to do it again? I’m N asshoel.
23:45 >Detective, are you drunk? You never text me.
I’m your ducking partner, I do what O want!
23:46 >Except for Spellchecking apparently. Do you mean it?
Hell, would I txt you if I don’t? I Hank told me.. I... give me another chance, okay?
23:47 >I understand correctly: you want me to come back and be your partner, despite me being a ‘tin-can’ and a ‘phcking machine’?
Yes, you oversized calculator!
23:47 >Understood, Detective. I’ll ask to be transferred back. 23:48 >Please get some rest, this can’t be healthy.
‘Yes, I will~’ Gavin got up, somehow staying on wobbly feet and made for his bedroom, before realising that was far too ambitious and opted for the couch instead.
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Id like a ship for marvel, 13 reasons why, and the twilight wolfpack. Im a straight female, Im 5'7 and im curvy with blue silvery eyes and light brown hairm. Im a Scorpio and i dont like people very much im very introverted and csn be pretty intimidating, i have a serious resting bitch face but once i know you and you earn my trust i can get sorta soft with you and im very very loyal. I also like yo read and swim a lot. Thank you!
A/N: I live! And am very slow now with school (same excuses) and I am so sorry. I just want to quickly note I have not seen 13 Reasons Why in forever and it might be slightly inaccurate. And with Twilight, I have only seen the movies once when I was 10. So I apologize immensely if I have done these pieces of work justice and hope you still like it. Have a wonderful day/night everyone and will work on be faster. 💛
Marvel Ship
Peter Parker
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Peter almost looks up to you in a sense that you kind of intimidate people, but in a good way. That means no one is going to messing with his girlfriend. But he also really likes your soft side. The side of you that comes out when you two have movie marathons or just having a lazy day. He likes to watch you swim as studies for test as Peter likes watching you do things your passionate about. And when your reading, he might just cuddle up to you and stare into your eyes as they are the most brilliant colour he has every seen on a person.
13 Reasons Why
Clay Jensen
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When you meet Clay, he was in a sensitive place. You were there to comfort through all the tapes and that fiasco. That’s how your relationship grew. Soon you too were dating and everything was the same. You were his shoulder to cry on, his rock and he would try to be same thing for you. He doesn’t really say “I love you”, if at all but he makes it up on dates so you have no doubt. He is not good with his feelings and is very venerable so try to stick with him through theses dark times.
Twilight Ship
Embry Call
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You were an old friend of Jacob’s and due to unfortunate events you had lost touch. But now you were back in Forks and on a mission to find him. It didn’t take long to find him due to it being a small town and you two instantly reconnect. Over the course of a few days he invites you over for lunch and that’s when you meet him. Embry Call. He was one of the quieter ones of the group of loud males. Entering into the house, he catches your gaze and is instantly captured by your eyes. He hasn’t seen anything quite like them and is drawn in. You too start talking and you know the rest.
Gifs are not mine
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idasessions · 5 years
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Famous Muses & Groupies in Rock Music Pt. 47
GROUPIE: Reine Stewart
Bear with me because this is going to be one of those bios where I’m basing a lot of the info and details on a handful of online threads and comments since there’s never been a legitimate report on Reine; plus the fansite with the most info is now a dead URL. Like Audrey Hamilton and Queenie Glam, she’s been completely MIA since the ‘70s and apparently has no interest in letting anyone know what she’s been up to via social media. Supposedly, Reine—pronounced like ‘Ren’ and born in 1948—was part of the first generation of rock music groupies in the mid-1960s LA area (particularly Laurel Canyon in Reine’s case); and spent nearly all her free time with bands and other groupies when she was 16-20. She allegedly has a twin sister named Tracy and was close friends with fellow groupies Christine Hinton and Debbie Donovan. The bands Reine spent the most time with were the Byrds, the Monkees and Buffalo Springfield. Like 99% of groupies, Reine was sexually adventurous and partied a lot.
You know that beautifully haunting track ‘Triad’ from Jefferson Airplane’s album ‘Crown of Creation’ (1968)? Originally it was written and demo’d by David Crobsy when he was in the Byrds, but bandmates Chris Hillman and Roger McGuinn were like ‘bro, we’re not performing a song about your freaky sex life,’ so then JA ended up getting it (along with Grace Slick changing the pronouns, lol), and Dave was kicked out soon after. ANYWAYS, the lyrics and title of the song are believed to be directly inspired by a threesome Dave had with Christine (his girlfriend at the time) and Reine in 1966. Kinky. A little less than a year earlier in 1965, Reine was also a sometime groupie of Byrds bassist Chris Hillman and at one point she had a thing with Springfield bassist Bruce Palmer too. In 1968, Reine went from Byrd groupie to future Monkee wife when she met and quickly began dating Peter Tork (she was all about that bass apparently). Peter already had a rep for being a sexually liberated hippie like Reine, and he was also buddies with a lot of the guys in the Byrds and Springfield, so their mutual interests and friendships were really convenient. In a Rolling Stone interview from 2007, Peter says that Reine was also briefly with Hollywood actor Peter Fonda before they started living together.
Before the two met, Peter had become known as the bachelor in the Monkees because he hadn’t been seriously dating anyone since breaking up with Leah Kunkel in summer 1967. Supposedly Reine was the one who made him interested in being committed (hmm, really though?). Early in their courtship, Reine was at the filming of the Monkees’ movie Head (1968) and tagged along on their Australia/Japan tour in October ’68. She can also be seen playing drums during a scene in the band’s lame TV special 33 1/3 Revolutions per Monkee (1969). In Dave Crosby’s 2005 memoir Long Time Gone, he mentions that when the couple would throw house parties, Reine was in charge of moderating the weed and ecstasy.
After Peter quit the Monkees, he and Reine formed a new band in 1969 called Release, with Peter on guitar and lead vocals, and Reine on drums. There’s a quote from singer-songwriter Jackson Browne (couldn’t find a source for it though) where he says that he once went to one of Peter’s infamous parties and saw Reine playing drums naked. He also alleges that she wasn’t actually that good of a drummer and was only part of the band because she was hot (no surprise, lbr). When the ‘60s ended, Peter’s and Reine’s relationship went from far out to straight up terrible. Release originally demo’d with Atlantic Records, but never got signed to the label for a record deal, and would eventually only play gigs locally (and even then sparingly). By 1970, they disbanded and the couple’s daughter, Hallie Luia (Hallie…Luia…halle…lujah… 😒 *slow clap*) was born on January 25th that same year. At this point, they were living at Crosby’s place, which is actually where Hallie was born. Then Reine was basically a single mother for four months in 1972 when Peter spent time in jail for holding a small bag of hash in his pocket in Oklahoma after a trip through Mexico. Then for some reason Peter and Reine thought it would be a good idea to finally get married in October ‘72, but only to get divorced and separate two years later in 1974. Sometime during all this, they also made the switch from LA to northern California. When Reine requested a divorce, she cited her reasoning being infidelity, that Peter couldn’t keep himself employed, and he was wasted all the time (this was 100% the lowest period of his life, and I hate reading about it, tbh :( ). Reine was granted full custody of Hallie, and in 1975 they moved back in with Croz and she spent a couple of years as a CSN(Y) groupie. And…that’s the last anyone’s heard from Reine publicly. Peter regained custody in 1976, not long before landing a position as a high school teacher in Beverly Hills. Fortunately, the father and daughter successfully formed a good relationship with each other by the time Hallie was a teenager and he was sober.
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julielmofiction · 7 years
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Cold Summer Night
"Happy Birthday, @myjaps." Julie's staring at that one particular tweet. For an hour. Or two maybe? She lost count. Well, why not? It was from him. Yes, him. Elmo. You read it right. The Elmo Magalona greeted her on her birthday. Hindi nga lang tulad ng greetings for Janella na punong-puno ng effort. Pero, at least di ba? Hindi niya nakalimutan. Bumati siya. It was also past May 17th. Kaya biglang-bigla, at gulat na gulat siya. "Bugak ka talaga Elmo eh." Sabunot ni Julie sa sarili. You can't snatch it away from her. Yung ganung effect ni Elmo sakanya. No one can, actually. Kahit yung rumored boyfriend niya pa. Elmo yan eh. Ben lang yun. Julie revisited Elmo's twitter account. Napangiti siya when she saw that tweet again. Yung totoo? Kinikilig siya. Kaninang-kanina pa. She also saw his photo that he tweeted on Mother's Day. Napatawa siya. It was not the first time she saw it. Marami na ring nag-tag sakanya non. "Sume-sense of humor ang Mokong." Sabi niya na tumatawa. Sabay haplos sa mukha ng gwapong dating ka-loveteam. Parang nung sa Yellow Note. Medyo same feelings pa nga eh. She scroll down below at nakita niya yung mga replies dun sa picture. So, may something pala sa loveteam nila ni Janella yung 'Meow'. Uminit ang ulo niya. Is she jealous? Imposible. May boyfriend siya eh. Sinara niya ang laptop. Take note! Pabagsak ha. Hindi basta-basta sinara lang. Walang pag-turn off. Selos nga. She find herself na gegewang-gewang pababa ng hagdan. Kukuha lang sana siya ng tubig na maiinom. Julie's a bit tipsy. Konti lang naman ang nainom niya. Pero, for a person na hindi sanay sa alcoholic drink, may iba talagang epekto. Safe naman siyang nakabalik sa room niya. Pabagsak na humiga sa kama at nagtakip ng unan sa mukha. Sakto kase, "Bwiset ka Elmo!!!" sigaw niya. Madaling-araw na. Ayaw naman niyang maistorbo ang pamilya niya. Dahil lang sa kabaliwan niya. She grabbed her phone and fidget. She doesn't know what to do. Bigla na lang she tap the Music icon on her new iPhone. She stared on a super familiar song na kaka-purchase niya lang ulit sa iTunes. CSN - Elmo Magalona "Bakit ba ganito ang album cover mo? Sana man lang mukha mo." She grinned. "I actually love staring at your beautiful face. Your eyes are my favorite." Bulong niya. She looked for her earphones and plugged it onto her phone and started listening. She's smiling. The whole damn time. "Sobra yung inimprove ng boses mo. Pero ganon pa rin yung effect. Nakaka-inlove." She said. She wanted to hear and see all versions of this new Cold Summer Night. She opened youtube on her laptop. There were versions nung sila pa yung magka-tandem. She was feeling nostalgia. "Grabe! Ang tagal na pala." Sa isip niya. Medyo nalungkot siya going down memory lane. Kase nga naman, ito na sila ngayon oh: hindi nagpapansinan. May nakita siyang most recent videos na version din nung song. It was the one with his new ka-loveteam. Si Janella. When he was a guest sa isang parang mini-concert. Huminga siya ng malalim before hitting the play button. While listening to it, may kakaibang naramdaman si Julie. Was it guilt? Bakit naman? Or jealousy? Mas possible yan. She hold her phone tight and dialed a familiar number na kabisado ng puso niya. Sakto naman pala kase, she still have his old number. While dialing, she's praying to all the gods na sana yun pa rin yung number na gamit niya. "Hala nag-ring." Gulat na sabi ni Julie. Isang ring lang, binaba niya na. Hindi pa ba talaga siya ready? Baka nga. She played another video. Another version na surprise pang lumabas si Janella. The song's launch sa ASAP. The one where she did the rap verse. Napa-ismid si Julie. Ayun na naman yung naramdaman niya kanina. "Bwiset. Bwiset." Sabi niya. And, dialed his number for the second time. Tatlong ring. Cancelled. Nasisiraan na yata siya ng bait. Nagtakip ulit siya ng unan sa mukha. Yung favorite niyang Elmo the Muppet na pillow. Sumigaw, "Elmo, bwiset ka. Bwiset." Habang pumapadyak sa kama niya. Nabaliw na nga ng tuluyan. Sa sobrang ingay niya. Hindi niya na narinig yung phone niya. May tumatawag. Returning a phone call. Si Elmo. Si Elmo tumatawag. Si Elmo, tinatawagan siya. And it stopped. Ang tagal na rin namang nagriring eh. May tumatawag ulit. This time, sinagot na ni Julie. Hindi pa nga nakakapag-hello yung nasa kabilang linya, inunahan niya na, "Elmo, bwiset ka." sabi niya, sabay baba ng phone. Natawa siya sa saril niya. Hindi niya akalain na masasabi niya yun. Naguguluhan siya ng may biglang nag-notify sa phone niya. It was a twitter notification. May bagong tweet si Elmo. Hello. Of course she subscribed from his tweets. Hindi naman nito malalaman eh. Stalking at its finest yan. "Ganun na pala magthank you ngayon" Natawa siya. Tawang-tawa siya. Hanggang sa may tumatawag na naman. Hindi lang basta call 'yun. Kase, it was an invite through Facetime. Huminga siya ng malalim and accepted the invite. "Well, hello, Julie." Namiss ni Julie yung boses na yun. Natulala lang siya. "Why are you still awake? Nasa bahay ka ba? Or nasa taping?" He asked. "Bahay." Absent-minded niyang sagot. Napa-smirk si Elmo. That is very familiar to her. Sobrang familiar. "Ahh. Okay. So, you have early call time kaya gising ka na?" He's trying to make a conversation. Umiling lang si Julie bilang sagot. Wala pa rin sa sarili. "Ang pogi mo." She said. Wala nga sa sarili. "Alam ko." Natatawa at mayabang na sagot ni Elmo. May sasabihin na sana si Julie. She was trying to redeem herself. Pero, wala eh. Nauna pa rin si Elmo. Tulad ng dati, mabilis pa rin talaga magsalita. "Bakit pala napatawag ka? Tapos, sinabihan mo pa ako ng bwiset ako?" Bumalik na kay Julie lahat. "Eh bwiset ka naman talaga eh." Napa-awang ang bibig ni Elmo. "Una, bakit ba bigla-bigla ka na lang magtu-tweet? Ha?" Sasagot naman dapat si Elmo. Pero, pinipigil siya ni Julie. "Pangalawa, bakit mas lalong gumaling ka ng kumanta?" Napa-iwas naman bigla si Julie ng tingin. "Dahil ba sakanya? Tinuruan ka ba niya?" "At, pangatlo. Mas magaling pa rin akong mag-rap sakanya. Mas bagay pa rin yung boses nating dalawa." Elmo was surprised. He doesn't know saan ba galing lahat ng 'yon. Sa sobrang pagkalito, he asked, "Where are all these coming from? What happened?" nag-aalala niyang tanong. "Well, I'm drunked. Konti lang naman. Need ko lang din ng lakas ng loob to ask you all those." Elmo gave her a straight face. "Aww. Bakit ka naman uminom, baby?" Pareho silang nagulat sa sinabi niya. "I'm sorry. I mean, Julie." Bawi niya. "Kase naman. You confused me." She said. He felt like, she just want an answer. "Okay. I'm sorry if this confused you. Gusto ko lang din talagang i-greet ka. This is an important day for you di ba? It was once an important day for me too." He smiled. "Medyo late na nga. Kase, busy ako kahapon sa taping." Kamot-ulo niyang pahabol. She felt it. That familiar pang in her heart. She missed those. "For your second question. I am attending voice lessons. Since lumipat ako, they've been so good to me." Julie's waiting for further more. "It was not really because of her. It was all because I wanted to put an effort to this. Ever since naman my dad died, mas naging passion ko na yung pagkanta." Smile is evident to his voice. "Miss ko na nga rin yung dati kong voice coach eh. Nakalimutan na niya ako." Iwas naman si Julie. "Loko lang Julie. Pero, sana nga, if may time ka, try mo ulit na i-coach ako. Effective ka naman eh." May kilig na naramdaman si Julie. Tinago niya lang. "Well, for the 3rd question. Which is yung pinakamahirap sagutin." He grinned. "Don't compare yourself to her. Janella have her own style pagdating sa music. Pero sige, let's give it to you kase birthday mo naman. Mas may swag ka talaga when it comes to rapping. You can easily mirror my ways in rapping kase eh." Tawa niya. "Pero, seriously Julie. Wag mo i-compare. Magkaiba kayo. She's special. And you are too. Magkaiba kayo ng ways of being special to me." She smiled. A bit weak. "You like her?" She asked. Yumuko si Elmo, and answered, "Yes." Julie's in the midst of crying. "Julie di ba may Ben ka na?" A tear fell. Habang nakayuko siya. And then, she nod. "Pero, gusto ko akin ka pa rin." Umiiyak niyang sagot. She's emotional. Maybe, dala na rin ng alak sa katawan niya. "Julie. Look at me." Umangat naman ang ulo niya and faced him. "Hindi kase pwede yun eh. Kung ako, ako lang. Kung siya, siya lang." He gave her a weak smile. "Medyo matagal din akong na-stuck sayo eh. Now that my heart is starting to be happy, ito ka na naman." "Ang unfair lang eh." Dagdag ni Elmo. "Am I the one to blame? Kung hindi ba ako naging ma-pride. Pwedeng sa akin ka pa rin?" Natawa si Elmo. Yung mapakla. "As long as alam kong ako lang Julie. Sapat na yun. Kahit pa naging ma-pride ka, ayos lang. Basta sana ako lang eh." "Alam ko naman that I've hurt you Moe eh. Ito na ba yung price nun? Hindi pala okay sa pakiramdam na makita kang masaya kasama siya. I am seeing myself to her. Yun nga ata yung mas mahirap eh. Kase, madali niya akong mapapalitan." Saad ni Julie. "Miss na miss na kita, Moe." "Mas miss na miss na kita, Julie. If you ever knew." "Sabi mo nga sa song mo, is there any way for you to turn around and come back? It has been years. Sawa na din ako na ganito tayo. Yung parang hindi magkakilala." Elmo smiled at her. Yung may pagmamahal. "It'll be a matter of time, baby." Julie was too focus on him. "Let's give it some time. Iba kase yung nasa puso mo ngayon eh. Iba din yung sinasabi ng utak mo. At lalong iba yung sinasabi ng bibig mo, dahil nakainom ka. You are under the influence of an alcohol. So, let's not trust that, okay?" Tumango-tango si Julie. "Kasalanan ko din naman Julie. Hinayaan ko lang na hindi ka tumawag. Na, hindi ka nakapagpaliwanag. Don't put all the blame on you, okay?" "Wag ka na rin, umiyak. Okay?" Puro pagtango lang ang sagot ni Julie. Kanina, siya itong madaldal. "There will always be Julie and Elmo along the way. Let them find their way back into each other." "Thank you, Elmo." Natawa si Elmo. "Bakit? Anong nakakatawa?" "That was the answer I'm looking for kanina. Hindi yung bwiset ako." Sabay na silang natawa. Masaya sila na at least nakapag-usap sila. Gusto pa rin naman pala nila ang isa't-isa. Mukhang madaming magiging masaya na malaman yon. Kaso, hindi pa nila pwedeng i-share sa lahat. It's complicated. "Julie, you sleep. You look tired." Pupungay-pungay na rin kase ang mata niya. "Sing for me please." They look at each other and smiled. "Just like 2012." Sabay nilang sabi. Ano pa nga bang bagay na kantahin sa situation nila ngayon? Of course. Cold Summer Night. Julie was so happy that finally, she talked to him. And he made her feel in love again. She's starting to close her eyes. And he was happy and satisfied. "I miss you baby. I need you here."
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flauntpage · 5 years
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Turns Out the Creepy Flyers Lurker is Not Actually Creepy, or a Lurker
You may have seen this story elsewhere, earlier this week.
Crossing Broad did not run it, because we wanted to gather the facts and go through the journalistic process. For us, it’s more important to be correct, than to be first.
After the Flyers’ 3-1 home loss to Montreal on Tuesday night, Radko Gudas spoke to reporters in your typical locker room scrum. Visible on camera was some guy standing behind NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Taryn Hatcher, who gave her a somewhat weird look, resulting in this:
Buddy over here trying to get fresh with @TarynNBCS. Get lost, pal. [h/t @the_shanetrain] pic.twitter.com/ZQgCYB9xXU
— Jordie (@BarstoolJordie) March 20, 2019
Here’s another clip of the alleged creeper, after the jump:
Mornin, ladies pic.twitter.com/KNp8Lu8jpX
— Busted Coverage (@bustedcoverage) March 21, 2019
So this guy is Jordan Hall, an NBC Sports Philadelphia web writer/producer who covers the Flyers. He’s a Hatcher co-worker. A Hatcher colleague.
Some people got super offended by the tweets and videos, including Justina:
Ok Justina, just fucking relax.
Taryn herself and other NBC people cleared this up:
Oh mercy.
Everyone I LOVE @JHallNBCS, he’s one of the sweetest, nicest, kindest people I’ve ever worked with.
I genuinely had no idea that was my facial expression.
Someone in the background burped super loud, so I turned around. That’s it. https://t.co/Amg4KAv6iE
— Taryn Hatcher (@TarynNBCS) March 21, 2019
Who burped in the background? I think that’s the real question here.
Funny video, sure.. and not that @JHallNBCS needs me to set the record straight. But he and @TarynNBCS are good friends. And speaking for myself, I haven’t met a better guy or more genuine person in my 15 years at CSN/NBCSP. Also great at what he does. Total professional. https://t.co/oSzMUp7puR
— Sean Kane (@SKaneNBCS) March 21, 2019
There you have it. This was not some creepy lurker guy, it was another NBCSP employee, a genuine dude, a total pro, and one of the sweetest and kindest people you’ll ever meet.
Anything else you read is #fakenews.
The post Turns Out the Creepy Flyers Lurker is Not Actually Creepy, or a Lurker appeared first on Crossing Broad.
Turns Out the Creepy Flyers Lurker is Not Actually Creepy, or a Lurker published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/
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gencottraux · 6 years
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One of the pleasures of getting older is looking back on meaningful things in the progression of your life, or making sense of things that maybe didn’t at the time, or even reflecting on what weren’t good times and seeing how they contributed to who you are. I’m realizing how important the music of various times has been as the soundtrack to my story. I more and more listen to the music of my young adulthood and hear a beauty in it that I didn’t necessarily get at the time. I just knew I liked it, but maybe not so much what it meant.
I was reading The Secret Diary of Hendrik Groen (originally published in the Netherlands in 2014), and felt compelled to take a photo of this quote. It’s so true!
    When we were on our recent vacation in England, I happened to hear over a cafe sound system songs by Leonard Cohen that took me back to the time when I didn’t even think I liked Leonard Cohen.
    Now I appreciate him for the incredible poet that he was, and wish I’d paid more attention. The song playing was The Sisters of Mercy (1967), and I fell in love with it there in the cafe.
    I don’t remember if it was the same cafe or later somewhere else on the trip, but my attention was caught by the Crosby, Stills & Nash song See the Changes (written by Stephen Stills) from the 1977 album CSN.
    See the Changes (Stephen Stills)
She has seen me changing It ain’t easy rearranging And it gets harder as you get older Farther away as you get closer
And I don’t know the answer Does it even matter? I’m wonderin’ how
Ten years singing right out loud I never looked was anybody listening Then I fell out of a cloud I hit the ground and noticed something missing
Now I have someone She has seen me changing And it gets harder as you get older And farther away as you get closer
And I don’t know the answer Does it even matter? I’m wonderin’ how
Seems like something out of a dream I had years ago yes, I remember screaming Nobody laughing all the good times Getting harder to come by without weeping
Now I have someone She has seen me changing And it gets harder as you get older And farther away
    Most of my favorite Crosby, Stills & Nash songs were written by Stephen Stills, and his voice was always the one that stood out to me. I went to see him in concert in Sacramento back in about 1990ish, and he was older and heavier (as I am now), but he could still play that guitar and his voice was as strong as ever.
    As we steered our canal boat through the English countryside into Wales, See the Changes became the soundtrack in my head, the song I sang aloud when no one was listening. The lines “…and it gets harder as you get older, and farther away as you get closer…” seemed particularly relevant as I took ibuprofen every night after the day’s hard work or raising and lowering locks and bridges on the canalway.
    I also had a lot of time to reflect on the meaning of those lines and whether or not I’d say that it’s true that it gets harder as I get older or if anything seems farther away. I suppose it depends on what the “it” is. Some things get harder as I get older, like getting up if I sit on the floor, or getting by on little sleep, or being on my feet all day. Those are the physical things.
    The mental and emotional things, for me, have gotten easier in a lot of ways. My social skills are much better, I’m more tolerant and open-minded, I deliberately aim for kindness and compassion in my approach to life and the other inhabitants of the planet. I love learning, and since I quit drinking 5 years ago, my brain engages and I want to learn more, always.
  Farther away? Well, the closer I get to the PhD finish line, the farther away that seems! People I started the program with, in my cohort as they say, have in some cases finished (congratulations, Barbara!) or are close to finishing (you go, Jennifer!). I’m still about a year away at best. But I remind myself over and over that it’s not a race or a competition, that I’ll finish in my own time and will be proud of what I accomplished. Retirement seems farther away than ever! I dream about the retirement house we will move to some day, where it will be and how clean and simple and tranquil it will be. The projects I’ll get done, all the books I’ll read. It’ll be awesome, if I ever get there.
    Gee, I wonder what this house costs?
  In addition to music and language, visual imagery, of course, is a huge part of our memories, nostalgia, reminiscing. I love to look through old photographs, but unfortunately, due a house fire in 1987, a lot of family photos were destroyed.
  A rare old family photo: me in 1965 at preschool. I’m the 4th seated in front from the left, worried looking blonde in white.
  When I was in high school in the late 1970s, I was obsessed with Seventeen magazine. Summer breaks seemed so long and luxurious (maybe because I wasn’t motivated to get a summer job like other teens; shy and lacking in confidence, the idea of applying for jobs was beyond me), and I couldn’t wait for the newest edition of the magazine, with the upcoming fall trends and teen advice. I was shy, yes, and also a loner, but I wanted what was in those magazines! I commandeered my mother’s old sewing machine, dragging it into my room, and followed all of the instructions on how to remake your wardrobe (turning flared pant legs into straight ones was a big one). In particular, the August 1978 issue was one that I read and reread, tried to copy the styles from, and wanted so badly to be the cover model, Lari Jane Taylor. I actually have remembered her name all of these years. I still love the look. I even still have a copy of the magazine, carefully preserved in an archival sleeve. It was my bible going into my senior year of high school, a year fraught with uncertainty and insecurity. In my 17-year old brain, I thought the right color eyeshadow would be the answer to my problems.
      Lari Jane Taylor was also the cover model of the January 1979 issue, looking into the spring. That issue didn’t have the same impact on me, clearly, since I’d forgotten about it until I searched on her name. I prefer the August 1978 look anyway.
    Ah, the late 1970s. A strange time, a transitional time between the “hippie” era of the late 60s and early 70s and the me-first greed of the 1980s. I often felt a little lost, not identifying with my peers. I became vegetarian, made my own clothes, listened to the “wrong” music (I abhored disco music, although I think it’s fun now). I wasn’t a punk, either. I was a geek in a land of jocks and cheerleaders on one side, and feaks and punks on the other. If you’ve never watched the one season of Freaks and Geeks (set in 1980), I highly recommend it, by the way.
    I was flipping throught the 1978 magazine, and all kinds of advertisements and images struck me as hugely amusing now, 40 years later.
  Whoa, 11 8-track tapes for $1! Even that $1 turned out to be a bad investment in a short-lived music format.
But look again at the song lyrics to See the Changes. The lines just before “and it gets harder as you get older, farther away as you get closer”:
Now I have someone
She has seen me changing…
Having someone with you on your journey who sees the work you are doing, who appreciates how hard you are working and can help you get perspective when whatever “it” is seems harder or farther away–that’s now my takeaway from this song. Whether it’s a sibling, a friend, a significant other, a companion animal (I’m not joking)–having someone to talk to, to bounce ideas off of, to give you comfort when you feel down–can make a world of difference. Hey, that English canal boat was a 2-person job and it was hard (but fun) work. Kind of like life.
Here’s to you, Captain Bob!
    Peace and hugs.
See the Changes (Stills was always my favorite) One of the pleasures of getting older is looking back on meaningful things in the progression of your life, or making sense of things that maybe didn't at the time, or even reflecting on what weren't good times and seeing how they contributed to who you are.
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sunshineweb · 6 years
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Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect
Value Investing Workshop in Bangalore (9th Sept), Chennai (23rd Sept), Mumbai (30th Sept). Click here to register now. Few seats remain!
Why were Warren Buffett and his creation, Berkshire Hathaway, so unusually successful?
In 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting, someone asked the above question from Charlie Munger. He replied –
If that success in investment isn’t the best in the history of the investment world, it’s certainly in the top five. It’s a lollapalooza.
Lollapalooza in the conventional sense means something outstanding of its kind. A person, a thing or an event that is particularly impressive, or extraordinarily attractive. But being multidisciplinary learners, we shouldn’t be satisfied with the conventional definitions, should we? Moreover, Charlie Munger doesn’t use lollapalooza just for its dictionary meaning.
Here’s the definition of Lollapalooza taken from the book Poor Charlie’s Almanack –
Lollapalooza is, as personified by Charles Munger, the critical mass obtained via a combination of concentration, curiosity, perseverance, and self-criticism, applied through a prism of multidisciplinary mental models.
When Charlie Munger uses the word lollapalooza, he often attaches the word “effects” (as in “lollapalooza effects”) which means that multiple factors are acting together in ways that are feeding back on each other.
In simple words, lollapalooza effect is an outcome which is far bigger than the sum of the parts. Using this mental construct of lollapalooza, one can explain the cause-effect relationship behind extreme events in the world. Not only explain, but Lollapalooza helps us understand the workings of this complex world so that we can leverage that for our own benefit.
In 2017 Daily Journal (DJCO) annual meeting, Munger said –
I coined it when I realized I didn’t know psychology. I bought three comprehensive psychology textbooks and read through them, and like usual I thought they were doing it all wrong, and I could do it better. When three or four tendencies were operating at once in same situation, the outcome wasn’t linear, it was straight up. The scholars were ignoring the most important thing in profession, because they couldn’t do experiments with so many variable operating together, and then they didn’t synthesize it with other disciplines, because they didn’t know squat about other disciplines. I am lonely, but I am right.
Lollapalooza is a great problem-solving tool. When you learn the important mental models and start applying them for problem-solving, you will realize that multiple models seem to converge in one direction and together they form the critical mass for a cascading of positive effects – a lollapalooza. It simplifies your decision making tremendously.
According to Munger, a majority of the worldly problems would be no-brainers if you look at them through the lens of lollapalooza.
To wrap our head around Munger’s idea of lollapalooza effect, let’s explore two cases studies which exemplify this concept.
Tupperware parties and open outcry auctions.
These examples highlight the situations where human irrationality, under the spell of Lollapalooza, becomes an uncontrolled freight train ripping apart every decision on its way.
Lollapalooza and Tupperware Parties A Tupperware party, according to Munger, is the best example of Lollapalooza effect because multiple psychological biases work in the same direction and push people towards irrational decisions.
Famous psychologist Robert Cialdini, in his book Influence, has written extensively about how the structure of Tupperware parties is designed to exploit many of the human biases.
A Tupperware party takes advantage of four weapons of influence, i.e., reciprocity, liking bias, social proof, and confirmation bias.
Here’s a crash course on these biases.
Reciprocity is the deep-seated urge to return a favour. When someone does something nice for you, it sows the seed to reciprocate. This feeling of obligation to repay is what’s known as reciprocation bias. Even if we didn’t need the initial favour in the first place, it’s hard to get rid of the feeling that you have to return the favour in some form. This urge to reciprocate may lead us to do things which we wouldn’t have done otherwise.
Liking bias explains why people prefer to do business with people they like rather than people they don’t like. And who do we like? Those who are similar to us, who cooperate with us, who makes us feel special. Especially our friends and neighbours. We find it hard to refuse a request that comes from such people.
Social proof is a way to deal with uncertainty. When we’re in doubt we often make decisions by imitating what others are doing. Humans find great comfort in social validation. Following others usually serves well under normal circumstances but social proof can lead us astray when making crucial decisions.
Commitment and consistency bias is when we resist changing our views even if we’re wrong. Once we’ve taken a stand on something, it’s cognitively tough to change it even when we’re shown evidence that counters our original beliefs. The more we affirm our past decisions the stronger we believe in them.
Back to Tupperware party.
The invite for the Tupperware party comes from someone you like — a friend, a colleague, a neighbour or a relative. Liking bias at play. The party then starts with a game where everyone is allowed to win a prize. Winning “prizes” invokes the force of reciprocation. You want to pay back those who gave you the free items. Then old customers are asked to share the benefits of the Tupperware products. This unleashes the commitment bias. Then you see other people at the party buying items and that triggers the social validation — since other similar people want the product; it must be good. Social proof bias at work.
Combine these effects, and it’s not hard to see why many people try to avoid going to a Tupperware party in the first place, because they know that once they are there, they will buy something.
Lollapalooza and Auctions In 2007 Tata Steel acquired Corus group – an Anglo-Dutch steel major. The acquisition happened through a competitive open-outcry auction. Tata Steel submitted a proposal with an initial bid of 455 pence a share. Soon CSN a Brazilian competitor chimed in with an offer of 475 pence. In response, Tatas upped the bid to 500 pence a share. Then CSN raised the bid to 515 pence. After a long drawn bidding war, Tata group eventually won with a bid of 608 pence a share. That was 34 percent higher than Tata’s original proposal. The total payment was $12.1 billion (Rs. 53,580 crores at the then exchange rate) of which $6 billion was debt. At that time Tata Steel’s market cap was less than Rs. 30,000 cr.
By 2014, Tata Steel’s debt had ballooned to more than $13 billion. They never recovered from this mistake.
Social psychology experiments show that bidders in auctions often get carried away and end up bidding far more than the underlying value of the auctioned objects. Such outcomes are almost always the result of the combination of multiple forces working in the same direction.
In his famous lecture title Psychology of Human Misjudgment, Charlie Munger says –
…the open-outcry auction is just made to turn the brain into mush: you’ve got social proof, the other guy is bidding, you get reciprocation tendency, you get deprival super-reaction syndrome, the thing is going away… I mean it just absolutely is designed to manipulate people into idiotic behavior.
The list of cognitive biases that are at play in an auction is just mind-boggling. It starts with greed and envy but doesn’t stop there.
Commitment Bias: Every bid and its escalation is a public commitment. It reinforces and justifies the bidder’s belief that his bid price is right.
Social Proof: You’re in close contact with other people who are all providing social validation that the sale item is valuable.
Low Contrast Effect: Every successive bid is only a tiny increment over the previous one.
Loss Aversion: As the auctioneer starts the countdown on the competitive bid it intensifies the feeling that you’re being deprived of something which was almost yours.
Authority Bias: The auctioneer is seen as a symbol of authority because he certifies the authenticity of the auctioned object. He also announces an initial bidding price which serves as an “anchor.”
Incentive Bias: The incentives of the auctioneer are directly attached to the final price. Higher the winning-price more the commission for the auctioneer.
Scarcity Bias: Auction items are scarce because only one person can have it, and after the bids are finished, you’ve lost your chance.
Do you see what happens to people who get into open-outcry, auction-like situations? That’s why Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have a rule when they get invited to auction situations.
The rule is: Don’t Go.
Lollapalooza and the Stock Market So how does lollapalooza play out in the stock market?
If you think about it, you will arrive at the same conclusion as I did. The stock market is either one big Tupperware party or a giant auction room or both.
The environment in which a typical stock market investor operates today is the breeding ground for many psychological biases — all acting in the same direction. And when forces act in the same direction, as we’ve learnt from Munger, it’s an invitation to lollapalooza.
With the advent of social media, everyone has the power to shout their opinions openly. Publicly voicing your views triggers a strong commitment and consistency effect. Irrespective of how many people actually listen to you, the mere fact that you’ve spoken about a stock openly, engraves those existing beliefs deeper into your own psyche.
The same social media becomes the source of social validation too. When you see hundreds of people talking about an obscure company, it’s difficult to fight the urge to follow the herd. This effect is more pronounced during rapidly falling or rising stock prices.
The incessant noise from the TV channels, financial newspapers, WhatsApp groups and free stock tippers, aggravates the recency bias in an investor’s mind.
And then the mother of all biases – incentive bias.
“I think I’ve been in the top 5 percent of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives,” says Charlie Munger, “and all my life I’ve underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther…Never ever think about something else when you should be thinking about incentives.”
The train of financial industry chugs on the rails of incentives. As a result, the incentive bias among the sellers of financial products creates a moral hazard for the small investors.
“All commissioned salesmen,” said Charlie Munger in 1988 Wesco Financial annual meeting, “have a tendency to serve the transaction instead of the truth.”
To invest in the stock market, a new investor cannot avoid contact with the so-called relationship managers of large financial institutions (banks, brokerage houses, mutual funds, etc.) This customer facing army is equipped with weapons of persuasion to be deployed against the innocent retail investors.
Unfortunately, even after knowing about the power of persuasion principles, it’s hard to resist giving in to the requests coming from these people. They are sharply dressed, they look confident, they are articulate, and sound very convincing. Can you imagine what a gullible investor, who has neither heard of Cialdini’s work nor the workings of Tupperware parties, gets sucked into?
Mr. Market – Benjamin Graham’s figment of imagination – is like the Tupperware hostess who would invite you every day to join the party. He’s also like the auctioneer who wants you to jump into the adrenaline-filled bidding war.
Remember the rule? Don’t go.
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MLB - Fantasy Baseball - Trade excitement heating up in Miami, Detroit and Chicago
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MLB - Fantasy Baseball - Trade excitement heating up in Miami, Detroit and Chicago
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AJ MassESPN Staff Author
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Fantasy soccer, baseball and higher education basketball contributor.
Creator of reserve, “Of course, It’s Sizzling in Listed here.”
Even when you are a admirer of a distinct significant league baseball staff, it can be tricky to maintain monitor of all of the information encompassing your favored club on a each day foundation.
When you are a fantasy baseball proprietor, multiplying that effort and hard work by thirty in purchase to maintain tabs on each individual and each and every club is a fool’s errand — bordering on the unattainable.
Worry not! We are going to be in this article each and every Monday to give you a snapshot of what is actually likely on in the environment of baseball, supplying you with one fantasy takeaway from each individual of the league’s thirty groups. Consider of it as your one-end store for the 7 days forward.
Listed here are the takeaways as we head into Week 15 of the 2017 time:
Arizona Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray will undoubtedly be effectively-rested when he usually takes the mound on Tuesday to face the Reds. The southpaw has not pitched in a activity considering the fact that July 6 because of to the timing of the All-Star break, coupled with manager Torey Lovullo’s want to give the 25-calendar year-old a few additional days off. Ray has thrown less than a hundred pitches in just 4 of his 17 begins this time, and was only one-2 pitches shy of triple digits in a few of those appearances. He also ranks seventh in the league in pitches for each get started. He may be a little bit rusty, but he undoubtedly needed the time off.
Atlanta Braves: Don’t appear now, but the Braves are instantly a .500 staff, and could be obtaining a important element of their bullpen back again in the up coming few days. Arodys Vizcaino has not pitched considering the fact that July 2 because of to a strained suitable index finger, but soon after a pair of bullpen periods this weekend, manager Brian Snitker seems shut to activating his key setup male. Vizcaino has 15 retains and two will save this time to go alongside with a 2.38 Period.
Baltimore Orioles: Immediately after two scoreless eighth innings more than the weekend, manager Buck Showalter could last but not least have seen more than enough to reinstate Zach Britton as the team’s closer likely forward. “If you bear in mind the first two or a few outings, it wasn’t Zach, and you could notify [by] the appear on his face he didn’t truly feel very good about the command of the sinker and everything, and that’s why we tried out to continue to be on an each and every-other-day issue,” Showalter reported prior to Sunday’s activity. Assume some help you save prospects this 7 days, presented a staff that has misplaced eight-of-10 video games can give Britton the chance.
Boston Pink Sox: Pablo Sandoval has been selected for assignment, and Tzu-Wei Lin has been sent back again to Triple-A Pawtucket. Both of those moves sign yet yet another opening at third foundation in Boston. Hopefully, Brock Holt is last but not least all set to stake his assert at the scorching corner. Holt went one-for-5 through the team’s doubleheader on Sunday, his first action considering the fact that April 20 when vertigo sent him to the bench. “If I wasn’t all set, I wouldn’t be in this article,” Holt reported. Fingers crossed, he’ll be equipped to adhere all over. Usually, a trade for a additional responsible third-foundation solution is probably the up coming class of action.
Chicago Cubs: John Lackey (plantar fasciitis) is scheduled to be activated from the 10-day DL on Tuesday to get started for the Cubs. It will be the 435th appearance of the veteran’s occupation, and 434th get started. He has only pitched in relief as soon as in his occupation: an unexpected emergency inning of operate in 2004 soon after then-Angels starter Bartolo Colon received shelled. That is why manager Joe Maddon thinks rumors of Lackey obtaining sent to the bullpen are a little bit foolish. “‘Just to check out to take him out of a activity — and then check out to notify him one thing like that? My God,” Maddon reported. ”Exponentially even worse.”
Chicago White Sox: The Terrific 2017 Market Off has started. Jose Quintana was traded to the Cubs on Thursday, and lots of additional members of the Chicago clubhouse are predicted to be packing their luggage in the up coming two months. Todd Frazier to the Pink Sox would seem incredibly plausible, and rumors of David Robertson to the Yankees are commencing to heat up. But we all know you will find only one shift that most fantasy house owners care about, and it was expressed incredibly nicely by a CSN Chicago headline before this 7 days: “WHITE SOX Contact UP NOT-YOAN MONCADA.” That wait carries on…
Cincinnati Reds: The numbers eight-6-one-one-eight examine like an Arizona zip code, but in actuality, those are the runs authorized by Homer Bailey in his five begins this time next elbow operation No. 3. Even so, soon after obtaining lit up on Sunday towards the Nationals, manager Bryan Cost remained optimistic about his pitcher’s future. “There have been zero health problems,” Cost reported. “No doubt, you never pitch as infrequently as he has in the very last a few several years and appear back again and be the 2012-2013 version of Homer Bailey. That being reported, our expectation, and I’m sure his, is that he’ll go out and carry out and give us video games that appear a good deal additional like the (one-operate video games) than the other a few.” We are going to see.
Cleveland Indians: Austin Jackson went one-for-4 on Sunday at the DH spot for Triple-A Columbus, the very last end in his rehab for a strained still left quad. Considering that he has yet to enjoy the field in the minors, one would count on at the very least yet another day or two in Triple-A for Jackson. Assuming all goes effectively, he should really be back again in Cleveland’s outfield by the close of this 7 days — presumably in suitable-field — at the very least until Lonnie Chisenhall (calf pressure) is all set to return to action himself.
Colorado Rockies: Immediately after remaining on the disabled checklist considering the fact that July 2 with a strained suitable calf, Ian Desmond has returned to the Rockies’ lineup. In his first activity back again on Sunday, Desmond went 2-for-3 before obtaining pulled in the sixth as a precaution with the Rockies up major. For now, manager Bud Black suggests he’ll use Desmond in still left field and first foundation instead than at shortstop, even if Trevor Tale carries on to struggle.
Detroit Tigers: Michael Fulmer, very last year’s AL Rookie of the Calendar year and a 2017 All-Star, has a 2.44 Period and a .188 BAA in his very last six begins — including an eight-IP, two-hit gem towards the Blue Jays on Saturday. Even so, rumors of a probable trade are increasing, particularly soon after observing the return the White Sox received for Jose Quintana. Fulmer has read the rumblings. “I’m not truly fearful about it,” he reported in response. “We are seeking to maintain the entire staff jointly suitable now.” We are going to know for sure if Fulmer is suitable in about two months.
Houston Astros: Dallas Keuchel (neck) is scheduled to pitch now for Double-A Corpus Christi, the first time the Astros’ ace will have taken the mound considering the fact that signing up for the disabled checklist on June 5. Assume 2-3 innings of operate and then a re-evaluation of his position. A timetable for his return to Houston is non-existent, as the staff is probably to enjoy points by ear. As Keuchel himself suggests, “It’s how I truly feel on Tuesday and how I continue on to progress. It may be one [get started], it may be fourteen.”
Kansas Town Royals: Nate Karns, who recorded 10 and twelve strikeouts in his two begins prior to his exiting a May well 19 outing towards the Twins with tightness in his forearm, will miss out on the rest of 2017. Karns will have operation to proper his thoracic outlet syndrome on Wednesday and will never be back again before up coming spring. This growth will probably inspire the Royals to offer for a fifth starter before the deadline, as they experienced been counting on Karns’ return. If that fails, even so, Eric Skoglund (one.62 Period in his very last a few Triple-A begins) could be an in-house alternative.
Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin was traded to the Angels on the very last day of June, and it seems the staff has now resolved to make a adjust at 2nd foundation. Danny Espinosa was selected for assignment on Sunday, leaving Franklin and Cliff Pennington to share time at the situation. “The one issue they’re going to bring, we truly feel, is some on-foundation proportion, at the the very least,” manager Mike Scioscia reported. Kaleb Cowart has been enjoying 2nd foundation at Triple-A Salt Lake and is batting .301 on the time, so if this new-appear infield fails to impress, he could get the phone.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Winners of nine straight video games (and with Clayton Kershaw on the mound Monday), the Dodgers are not specifically anxious about their recent double-digit direct in the NL West. That is why the staff is keen to take points incredibly slow with the rehabs of Adrian Gonzalez (back again), Hyun-Jin Ryu (foot) and Scott Kazmir (hip). All a few are progressing in their respective rehabs, and all could conceivably be back again before the close of July. That reported, with no have to have to press the issue, the wait could continue on deep into August.
Miami Marlins: Immediately after obtaining swept by the Dodgers more than the weekend, the optimism for a probable wild-card operate is obtaining dimmer by the day. It would be incredibly stunning if this staff stays intact appear July 31. Giancarlo Stanton has a no-trade clause in his mega-contract, but may be keen to waive it if he is delighted with the destination. San Francisco is reported to be pursuing a probable offer for the outfielder. Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour and Christian Yelich have also appear up in trade excitement. It’s not truly a concern of “if” with the Marlins any more, but instead of “who” and “when.”
Milwaukee Brewers: With the Cubs landing Quintana, it is really now up to the first-spot Brewers to return serve, and it seems the staff does not strategy to stand pat. Sonny Grey seems to be the organization’s key target, as the suitable hander has associations with Eric Sogard, Stephen Vogt and Milwaukee pitching coach Derek Johnson (the latter coached Grey at Vanderbilt). Even if that offer falls through, administration has expressed a willingness to do everything in its energy to acquire now.
Minnesota Twins: The Twins are only one one/2 video games behind first-spot Cleveland in the AL Central, but it is really difficult to envision they’re going to continue to be this competitive heading into August and September. No detest towards Minnesota, but let us be straightforward — they are commencing Bartolo Colon on Tuesday. It could be difficult to be “sellers” offered their spot in the standings, but wouldn’t they be far better served in the lengthy time period by dealing Brian Dozier, Ervin Santana and Brandon Kintzler? And reality be advised, those specials could truly boost their 2017 likelihood dependent on the returns.
New York Mets: A different 7 days, yet another personal injury for Yoenis Cespedes. The outfielder tweaked his hip seeking to make a capture on Saturday, and claimed that leaving the activity was merely a precautionary measure offered the blowout rating. That reported, he also sat on Sunday, and could potentially be out of action all over again on Monday. “I never imagine it is really real significant with Ces, but undoubtedly, if he is out for a interval of time, we will do the ideal we can,” manager Terry Collins reported. It’s disheartening for Cespedes’ fantasy house owners to be sure, but except if he will get dealt to an AL staff the place he can DH and avoid these sorts of injuries, it is really element of the expense of drafting him.
New York Yankees: Michael Pineda is completed for 2017, and potentially as a Yankee, as he’ll be a free of charge agent appear October. Though the pitcher is likely to get a 2nd impression before likely underneath the knife, Pineda has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the UCL in his suitable elbow, creating Tommy John operation incredibly probably. The club is not likely to rush into a worry trade for yet another commencing pitcher, nor will they unexpectedly boost Triple-A stud Possibility Adams. Even so, more than the up coming fourteen days, count on each and every probable pitching trade to have the pinstripes connected to it as a rumored husband or wife.
Oakland Athletics: Immediately after dealing away two of their major relievers (see Washington down below), no one expects the A’s to stand pat the rest of July. GM Billy Beane suggests he will continue on to make specials when he can obtain “the ideal players, interval.” Expected to obtain new households in the up coming few months are Sonny Grey, Jed Lowrie and Yonder Alonso. “Very first of all, we have to take a appear at the place we are — we are in very last spot. And the route we are heading is, we are likely younger,” suggests Beane.
Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Altherr, who experienced been hitting .370 in July, seems sure for the disabled checklist soon after having to go away Friday’s activity with a strained suitable hamstring. Whilst it is really attainable that Altherr could be all set to enjoy in sooner than 10 days, the staff wants two roster spots to open up up with the predicted return of 2nd baseman Cesar Hernandez (indirect) and pitcher Vince Velasquez (elbow) for this week’s collection towards Miami.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Though most fantasy house owners have probably moved on from Jung Ho Kang lengthy back, those who have yet to do so in the hopes that the South Korean could be equipped to fix his visa problems in time to enjoy in 2017 can truly feel free of charge to let him go. GM Neal Huntington suggests that “it is really difficult to visualize a scenario the place one thing is likely to adjust overnight and he is likely to be equipped to appear in in this article and contribute to enable us acquire video games.” As for 2018, even that would seem like a tenuous possibility at this level.
St. Louis Cardinals: Seung-hwan Oh gave up a few runs in the ninth inning on Friday evening to lose a activity for the Cardinals. On Sunday, it was Brett Cecil who came in to shut out a victory, and he also came away with a loss instead of a help you save. Even so, Mike Matheny is nevertheless not all set to declare that Trevor Rosenthal is his closer likely forward. “(It’s not) suitable for us fairly yet to make the statement on who is likely to pitch the ninth and give anyone that title,” Matheny reported. Mainly because Rosenthal worked all weekend, Oh is almost certainly likely to get the phone if a closer is needed on Monday. Even so, appear Tuesday? Improved phone Rosenthal.
San Diego Padres: Hector Sanchez went 3-for-9 with two dwelling runs and five RBI more than the weekend although spelling Austin Hedges behind the plate. Hedges took a foul ball off the mask on Friday, and although doctors never imagine he experienced a concussion, the catcher nevertheless does not truly feel fairly suitable. “What I was advised by doctors… is it is really one thing underneath the amount of a concussion, but he is received some basic haze from it. Hopefully, it wears off rapidly,” manager Andy Green reported. If Hedges carries on to miss out on time, each day fantasy players could want to roll the dice on San Diego’s scorching backup catcher.
San Francisco Giants: Hunter Strickland has nine retains on the time, and has managed a one.35 Period and a .229 BAA to go alongside with a 10.eight K/9 amount more than his previous 15 appearances. Groups like the Rays had been seen scouting Strickland more than the weekend. With Mark Melancon (elbow) predicted to reclaim the team’s closer function any time he returns from the disabled checklist, Sam Dyson would presumably slide into the eighth-inning function currently occupied by Strickland, which is why the Giants could think about a offer.
Seattle Mariners: Not all small-league demotions are the identical. When it arrives to young players obtaining sent down suitable before the All-Star break, it is really normally just a way for significant league groups to exploit a loophole in the rostering procedures. That seems to be the scenario with Sam Gaviglio, who was sent to Triple-A Tacoma soon after a third consecutive loss on July 6. Prior to that seven-4 loss to Oakland, Gaviglio experienced posted a respectable 2.forty eight Period and .238 BAA in his prior six begins. With Seattle last but not least needing a fifth starter on Tuesday, manager Scott Servais suggests, “It’s almost certainly likely to be Sam.” Not the most glowing endorsement, but nevertheless the most probably determination.
Tampa Bay Rays: The bullpen just isn’t specifically the strongest element of the Rays’ roster suitable now, as the team’s 4.forty Period in relief ranks twenty second on the time over-all. Considering that June one, it is really a 5.01 Period (25th over-all). Jumbo Diaz was selected for assignment soon after letting runs in back again-to-back again video games this weekend. Justin Wilson of the Tigers may be at the major of the Rays’ would like checklist, but some new arms are obviously on the agenda likely forward. As manager Kevin Income reported Sunday, “(We have) received to have some far better, additional dependable selections.”
Texas Rangers: Alex Claudio pitched a few moments more than the weekend, preserving two video games and keeping the Royals off the board for a few innings. Andrew Cashner suggests Claudio’s general performance has earned him the nickname of Machete, proclaiming, “The very last couple days he is just coming in and slashing fellas down. He is been a distinctive reliever for us this calendar year.” Nonetheless, soon after getting into a tie activity on Sunday, it is really unclear whether or not he truly has a leg up on Matt Bush or Jose Leclerc the place the closer’s career is anxious. Continue to be tuned.
Toronto Blue Jays: Francisco Liriano lasted just two innings on Saturday before leaving the activity, the end result of neck tightness that now threatens — at a bare minimum — his up coming get started. “The additional I threw, it was obtaining even worse. (It) just feels truly sore and restricted,” reported Liriano. “I have no plan what it is.” This personal injury could not only impression Liriano’s probable trade benefit, but also diminish the chance that Toronto would be keen to trade away J.A. Happ. Immediately after all, someone has to pitch for this staff for the rest of 2017.
Washington Nationals: It was sure to come about eventually, although obtaining two probable closers from the identical staff was a little bit of a surprise. On Sunday, the Nationals acquired both equally Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle from Oakland, sending Blake Treinen back again to the staff that at first drafted him in 2011. Both of those pitchers are underneath contract for up coming time as effectively, so although it is really currently unclear which of these arms will shut video games for the rest of 2017, you will find a very good chance the person Dusty Baker settles on this calendar year will be the favored to get the the vast majority of will save in 2018 as effectively.
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ellebeebee · 7 years
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2.537
Part Seven
Part One || Part Two || Part Three || Part Four || Part Five || Part Six
Phrixus Jaril, 13, moves to the Citadel at a delicate age: namely, the peak of his teenage angst. He doesn’t expect much from these rich Citadel kids. But then he meets the Ryder twins, and all their friends, and realizes that he may have been a wee bit wrong about things. His relationship with Mira Ryder evolves over the years, and he never expected things to end up the way they did.
2970 words, Female Ryder|Sara Ryder/Original Male Turian Character, teen rating
AO3
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He hadn’t really gotten to know Jyra Kraetoq, of the lower Citadel wards, during basic. And two months into advanced training, he still knew jack-all about her. He and Ruq tended to include her at meal times and in down time, because they came from the same basic squad. And they were usually in the same fire team. But the most they’d gotten her to say about herself was that she could probably infiltrate any system of ductwork, felt strongly that anyone not carrying at least two sidepieces and knives was asking for it, and didn’t believe in eating meat. Even the vat-cloned “meat” that was so often a camp staple.
She was okay, though. Good with tech and a pistol.
He never saw Kraetoq after training; last he’d heard, she had a post out near geth space– some joint op with both Alliance and Flotilla forces cleaning up leftovers from the Battle of the Citadel. Ruq, unfortunately, stuck to him like varren shit. Some years after boot camp, they met again at the fringes of the Attican Traverse. Slaver hunting. But even without meeting up with Ruq again, he recalled these two in particular because they gave him some advice he should have listened to. Sure, Kraetoq went through partners like tp, and Ruq was so dense he’d have someone sticking their mandibles straight up into his before he realized they were interested– but still. You see the splinter in someone else’s eye better than the log in yours or whatever.
During one evening’s free time, most of their squad and the other squads in the company were in the rec room. Kraetoq had stood from the table she, Phrixus, and Ruq had been sitting at.
She whistled at him. “Jaril. Latrine.”
Feet propped on the table top, Phrixus looked up from his omnitool. “Take a female.”
They (meaning everyone under sergeant rank) had to walk around the camp in pairs, usualy male-male and female-female, but in cases of male-female you took three. One male, two females or one female, two males. It was kind of a pain in the middle of the night when someone had to pee really bad and had to wait on someone to wake up and stop cursing you for waking you up.
“I could make the obvious joke here,” Kraetoq drawled. “But let’s just save time and go already.”
He didn’t feel like arguing, so he dropped his feet and shoved at Ruq, napping on the table with his head in his arms. Ruq grumbled some but got up anyway. A short walk later, the two of them leaned against the wall outside the female latrine, Ruq half falling asleep again and Phrixus with his mandibles deep in his tool.
And his head was still mired elsewhere when Kraetoq came out, and the other two were halfway down the hallway.
“Jaril,” Ruq called.
He looked up, and pushed off the wall. And when he followed after them, and passed by them, Ruq got sneaky and shot out a hand to grab onto his wrist. Jerking, he whipped Phrixus’s hand around so that he could look at the omnitool, too.
“I’m not gonna forget you–” he read out loud. He whistled. “How darling. Romantic, even. How much did you pay the guy to write all this for your sour ass?”
Quicker than Ruq could react, Phrixus flicked him sharply on the forehead with his free hand.
“Shit–”
“Dumbass,” he told Ruq.
His hand returned to him, he turned off his omnitool. He’d been browsing through his old message logs. The people in them almost felt like… strangers. At what point had they stopped writing to each other like that, like… Their feelings were so easy to admit. To just spit out. It hadn’t even been a year since he’d written that line Ruq used, but it felt like a lifetime.
The three of them walked back to the rec area with Ruq shrilling about the mark Phrixus probably left. Kraetoq glanced at him. At the face he was making.
“Trouble in paradise?” she asked.
He glanced at her. Shrugged. “My girlfriend. Lately she’s… acting like a damn princess. I’m here, busting my ass, and…” He shrugged again. “It’s just hard to talk to her lately.”
They dropped into their old seats. Propped their feet up again. And Kraetoq didn’t say anything, so he thought the subject was dropped. But then she cleared her throat.
“Maybe she’s acting like a princess because she is one? Maybe every girl is a bit of a princess. Just some don’t get the chance to act like it.”
He looked at her. And shrugged and rolled his eyes because he was a damn idiot and thought she was complaining about having to nag them about walking her to the latrine, and not that she was saying something he should have really heard.
He should have been worried when Mira started going out again. Since the move to the dorms, Forta had decided to cut the drinking and work on lifting and his overall fitness. Of course, the timing and the amount of enthusiasm he threw into this should have worried Phrixus for an altogether different reason. Mira, though, went back to sneaking out with Aela and all the old suspects back home. He’d thought at first it was her just going back to things like normal. But then at some point she and Aela got bored of all the same old house parties.
[mira] soooo
[phrixus] yeah
[mira] me n aela have been up to no good
[mira] ;D
[phrixus] do i really want to hear this
[mira] yesss
[mira] you do
[mira] so u kno how ur csn is tied to ur face recs and thats how you get id’ed for bars and stuff
If at any time you are a citizen of Citadel space, you receive a constantly updating three-dimensional face scan that will be associated with a Citadel Space Number and your various specs. This information is stored with various police and government databases, which vendors of regulated goods and services are required to access before selling to you.
[phrixus] yeah…
[mira] well, we met this asari who knows someone that will program a jump in scanner software when your face is scanned so it looks like you’re legal
[mira] its expensive
[mira] but i think its worth it
[phrixus] mira
[phrixus] are you for real right now
[mira] what
[phrixus] you’re planning on going to bars and clubs
[phrixus] you’re a kid
[phrixus] you know that’s fucking dangerous
[phrixus] there are creeps out there
[mira] yeah i know
[mira] we’re not going to be stupid about it
[mira] whats with you
[mira] you used to be into this stuff
[phrixus] well maybe i just have my priorities straight
[mira] and i dont?
[phrixus] you’re failing half your classes, you skip too much, all you really seem to care about anymore is partying
[phrixus] you’re not even going to the gun ranges or the arena
[phrixus] and aela just keeps making it worse
[mira] you dont know anything
[mira] aela has been there for me
[mira] she actually listens to me
[mira] not like you anymore
[mira] you used to give a shit about my life
[mira] now im lucky if you even send a message once a day
[mira] you used to tell me things
[mira] now i dont know anything about what youre doing
[mira] or how you are
[mira] youve changed and i dont even know you anymore
[phrixus] you think i wanted it like this
[phrixus] im here because its my responsibility
[phrixus] im doing my duty and i dont have all the fucking time in the world to answer every message
[phrixus] especially all this crap about how hungover you are or whining about how expensive your fake id will be
[phrixus] im here doing real work in the real world
[phrixus] not like you and aela out in la la land over there
[phrixus] im getting my life together not fucking wasting it
[mira] no youre not youre just being an asshole
[mira] maybe everyone was right about you
[mira] youre not shy or misunderstood or whatever
[mira] youre just a selfish jerk
[mira] you have no idea how to care about anyone other than yourself
[mira] and i bet none of this is new
[mira] youve always looked down on me
[mira] youre just a fucking emotional leech
[mira] but dont worry i wont bother you again with my screwed up life
-
They didn’t talk for two weeks.
He had never been angry at anyone, had never been angry at her in this way before. He’d never been hurt in this way.
He aced an impromptu fire and movement drill, earned praise from the company’s captain. He memorized all of the regs concerning the movement of refugees from an unsecured location to a secured location. He learned how to properly fire heavy artillery, and how to decimate an air raid with a dazzling firework display.
All the while pretending to not think about it. All the while stewing.
He felt like shit.
He ignored calls from home, from his moms and his old friends. All the messages. He told no one about the fight. Maybe he thought if he kept quiet, it would cease to exist. Just be erased from the history of the universe if no one could remember it.
But him ignoring it wasn’t going to erase the logs in his omnitool, or make her forget.
He just felt like shit.
When did things get so bad? How could it have been, just a year ago, that he felt there was no one who knew him better, that he trusted more, and then that same person turned into a stranger? Someone he couldn’t understand, someone who he couldn’t confide in or vice-versa? How the fuck was it possible that someone you’d shared a bed with– the only person you’d touched or touched you could turn into… an enemy?
And what was it in him that just… could do nothing to help her. Her mother was dying. And he couldn’t do anything. He hadn’t been able to comfort her, say anything of significance for her. He was useless.
If he were honest, and not trying to forget the whole thing, he’d have to admit he didn’t have much right to criticize her.
Where did the trust get broken? Where did the understanding go? Where did that warm afternoon air go, sliding down their bare backs? Where did the quiet rustling as they shifted closer go? And her smile– when was the last time he’d made her smile?
That hit some deep spot in him, some horribly tender place that wasn’t protected by plates or armor. A place he’d been trying to ignore, all this time at camp.
He pretended to forget for two weeks before he ended up wide awake after lights out, laying in bed and staring at the ceiling. He was running on several nights of staring up at the ceiling instead of sleeping, and yet, here he was. Awake. Pretending.
Phrixus pushed up an elbow and glanced down from his top bunk. Everyone was out. In the hall outside, he couldn’t hear the boots of the patrolling fire watch. They were supposed to report anyone out of bed, but even if they caught him only brown-nosing assholes ever snitched on fellow trainees.
Silently, he slipped down the ladder. He dug his omnitool out, climbed back up, and pulled up the covers to block some of the light.
He sent a message to Mira. And waited. And waited. The air filters in the barracks room clicked at rapid rhythm every few hours. It wasn’t too loud, just sort of softly angry and stuttery. Could wake you up though, and you wouldn’t realize it was the filters. You’d get spooked and feel like something was sitting on your chest. He sent another message.
And he waited and waited.
[phrixus] We need to talk.
[mira] oooo cap
[mira] s
[mira] pucntion
[mira] ooooooo
[mira] u dontwnt to tallk tome
[phrixus] Have you been drinking?
A very long pause. He turned his omnitool’s light off when he heard the passing of the fire watch.
[phrixus] Where are you?
[mira] purgatory
[phrixus] Mira.
[mira] stop
[mira] dont
[phrixus] Who’s with you?
[mira] y do u caer
[phrixus] I’m messaging Aela.
[mira] no
[mira] y not alk me
[mira] im drunk im nt stupid
[mira] im the one u shld tallk to
[mira] but u dont
[mira] u nnever
[phrixus] im sorry
[mira] yeah
[mira] metoo
[phrixus] you wanna vid talk?
[phrixus] mira?
[phrixus] mira
He waited a while. And waited. Tried her again. Then he tried Aela.
[phrixus] hey are you with mira
[aela] yeah
[aela] we’re leaving purgatory now
[aela] try her tomorrow or something
[phrixus] ok
[phrixus] how is she
[aela] look, i’m the last person you want to ask about this
[aela] i’m not gonna pull punches
[aela] and i don’t want to make it worse
[aela] just talk to her tomorrow
-
So he skipped lunch the next day and messaged her. Wedged into the corner between two auxiliary buildings, having snuck his omnitool into his waistband in the morning. The electromagnetic barrier of the fort’s biodome buzzing distantly overhead. As answer, she vid called him back.
He was in fatigues, unbuttoned to the waist. The dome protected from a great deal of heat, but it was still much hotter out of doors.
She stared at him, out of the QE data transmission, tinged in hologram blue. In her dorm, sitting on a bed not so different from the one he used now. The plain, nondescript walls not so different from the ones in the barracks, yet hers papered with photo screens and posters. The cushions at her back the same from her old room. Her face was a mess, like clan markings done with cheap paint in a downpour, and she wore a wrinkled and disheveled dress he’d never seen before. Her hair was pulled back carelessly.
“Hey,” she said, small and quiet.
“Hey,” he said.
He could hear the distant rhythm of a jogging company. Even farther out, the sharp cracks of the range.
“You okay?” he asked.
Her eyes shot down, her jaw working. She shook her head.
“I don’t– I need to say something,” she said. “I said some stuff I shouldn’t have the last time we messaged.”
“I did, too–”
“Wait. Just, wait. I’m sorry. You’re not that type of person I said you were. But I also said some things I should’ve a while ago. Things haven’t… they haven’t been the same… Phrixus.”
He waited, holding his mandibles rigid. He watched the slide of her eyes to some spot away from him, and the working of her throat.
“I’m sorry,” he managed. “Mira, I’m sorry. I’ve been terrible. You’re nothing like… and I haven’t been there for you, I know. But I’ve been– worried about you.”
She hesitated, nervous hands going to push away a stray curl that wasn’t there. “I’m glad. I mean. I know I haven’t been making great choices. But I mean… I just wanted… some fun and– and you know, I’ve been worried about you, too. I don’t have any idea how you’re feeling anymore.”
“Yeah,” he said, subvocals dipping. “I know.”
“And I’m sort of tired of just… waiting for some bit of your time. I feel like I’m just a distraction for you.”
“You’re not– you’re not. But… I’m sorry. I just need, well, space. I really just can’t spare the same amount of time…”
“I know.”
Then she looked up properly, at the rigidity in his face. Her eyes shone. She inhaled, the sound trembling, in her throat.
“Phrixus, I think– I think this just isn’t working anymore. Things aren’t the same.  And we both– I think we both need to focus on other things.”
The voice of some sergeant out in the yard spread out over the compound, echoing like a sergeant’s voice does, but wordless and unemotional and hard. An unintelligible dressing down of some group of teenagers.
“I…” he needed to reply, but his voice was skittering away from him. “I think… you’re probably right. I guess we should just– break up…”
She stared up at him. Her voice was so small and tight. “Yeah.”
“I’m sorry.”
“Me too.”
-
He felt… relief for a while. Relief that the pressure and responsibility of the relationship was over. That he didn’t have to come back to his bunk with a backlog of messages to catch up on.
But then the guilt set in. Had they just given up? Should he have tried harder, done more. How could he have said the things he did. This wasn’t just anyone.  This was her. And she had needed him, and he hadn’t been there.
And then the pain set in. Like the story Lieutenant Gratarian had told them on simulation; there are times when soldiers get cleaved in two, and they’re dead, they just don’t realize it yet. But they keep talking, still trying to get help. But they’re dead, and they’ll feel it soon.
All the things he remembered, all the things they’d shared– it got into that deep and tender spot. Turned into this black blemish that never seemed to go away. He could forget about it. But sometimes something (some scent that reminded him, some shift in another’s form) would touch it, and light that tender spot on fire.
But what they’d said still remained.
Maybe it was for the best.
He could focus on training, and she could work things out, figure out the thing in her that was hurting.
Time passed. He didn’t try to make up or restart things, and neither did she.
And they moved on.
0 notes
jamieclawhorn · 7 years
Text
Two cheap dividend stocks I’d buy in May
For those seeking great dividend stocks at tasty prices, I reckon books giant Bloomsbury Publishing (LSE: BMY) could prove just the ticket.
The London outfit saw revenues soar 19% between March and August, according to its latest trading update, to £62.7m. This was driven by strength at Bloomsbury’s core Consumer division, where blockbuster titles like its illustrated Harry Potter books helped drive sales 36% higher to £37.3m.
But the publisher isn’t content to sit on cash cows like the spectacled wizard to drive revenues further down the line, Bloomsbury seeing revenues from its academic and professional digital resources double during March-August to £2m.
And via its Bloomsbury 2020 investment programme, the company is dedicating vast sums to build its position in the critical digital segment through the likes of Arcadian Library Online and Bloomsbury Popular Music.
Read all about it
These factors are expected to see the bottom line recover from an anticipated 23% earnings fall for the year that ended in February. And City analysts are predicting a 1% dip in the present period before Bloomsbury bounces back with an 8% earnings rise in fiscal 2019.
And current forecasts make Bloomsbury splendid value at the minute, the company dealing on a prospective P/E ratio of 14.9 times, just below the benchmark of 15 times widely considered attractive value.
Furthermore, broker estimates also provide particularly good news for dividend chasers. An estimated 6.7p per share dividend for fiscal 2017 is expected to rise to 7p and 7.4p in the following two years, meaning Bloomsbury checks out with handsome yields of 4.1% and 4.3% for these periods.
Cash machine
Those seeking market-mashing dividend yields should also take a long look at Chesnara (LSE: CSN), in my opinion.
Like Bloomsbury, the life insurance giant is anticipated to endure earnings turbulence in the near term. In 2017 the company is expected to enjoy a 7% earnings rise before an 18% bottom-line slip transpires next year.
But as a side note, current projections leave Chesnara dealing on a mega-cheap forward P/E multiple of 12.9 times.
Despite the predicted profits pain however, the company’s excellent solvency position — not to mention its still-robust long-term growth outlook — mean Chesnara is still expected to keep dividends rolling higher. The company’s Solvency II ratio rose to 158% as of December from 146% a year earlier.
Chesnara has hiked dividends for 12 years on the spin, and this year is predicted to pay a 20.1p per share dividend, up from an expected 19.5p in 2016 and yielding 5.3%. And an anticipated 20.6p reward in 2018 yields a spectacular 5.4%.
The Preston business snapped up Legal & General Nederland in November 2016 for €160m, a move which is expected “to have a significant positive impact on the Economic Value of the group and will further enhance ongoing cash generation thereby supporting the continuation of our dividend strategy.”
And Chesnara’s healthy appetite for acquisitions could provide the ammunition for dividends to keep on climbing.
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More reading
2 reliable dividend stocks for retirement income
Are these 2 beaten-up dividend aristocrats bargain buys?
Is this the best insurance stock you’ve never heard of?
Royston Wild has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
0 notes
sunshineweb · 6 years
Text
Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect
Value Investing Workshop in Bangalore (9th Sept), Chennai (23rd Sept), Mumbai (30th Sept). Click here to register now. Few seats remain!
Why were Warren Buffett and his creation, Berkshire Hathaway, so unusually successful?
In 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting, someone asked the above question from Charlie Munger. He replied –
If that success in investment isn’t the best in the history of the investment world, it’s certainly in the top five. It’s a lollapalooza.
Lollapalooza in the conventional sense means something outstanding of its kind. A person, a thing or an event that is particularly impressive, or extraordinarily attractive. But being multidisciplinary learners, we shouldn’t be satisfied with the conventional definitions, should we? Moreover, Charlie Munger doesn’t use lollapalooza just for its dictionary meaning.
Here’s the definition of Lollapalooza taken from the book Poor Charlie’s Almanack –
Lollapalooza is, as personified by Charles Munger, the critical mass obtained via a combination of concentration, curiosity, perseverance, and self-criticism, applied through a prism of multidisciplinary mental models.
When Charlie Munger uses the word lollapalooza, he often attaches the word “effects” (as in “lollapalooza effects”) which means that multiple factors are acting together in ways that are feeding back on each other.
In simple words, lollapalooza effect is an outcome which is far bigger than the sum of the parts. Using this mental construct of lollapalooza, one can explain the cause-effect relationship behind extreme events in the world. Not only explain, but Lollapalooza helps us understand the workings of this complex world so that we can leverage that for our own benefit.
In 2017 Daily Journal (DJCO) annual meeting, Munger said –
I coined it when I realized I didn’t know psychology. I bought three comprehensive psychology textbooks and read through them, and like usual I thought they were doing it all wrong, and I could do it better. When three or four tendencies were operating at once in same situation, the outcome wasn’t linear, it was straight up. The scholars were ignoring the most important thing in profession, because they couldn’t do experiments with so many variable operating together, and then they didn’t synthesize it with other disciplines, because they didn’t know squat about other disciplines. I am lonely, but I am right.
Lollapalooza is a great problem-solving tool. When you learn the important mental models and start applying them for problem-solving, you will realize that multiple models seem to converge in one direction and together they form the critical mass for a cascading of positive effects – a lollapalooza. It simplifies your decision making tremendously.
According to Munger, a majority of the worldly problems would be no-brainers if you look at them through the lens of lollapalooza.
To wrap our head around Munger’s idea of lollapalooza effect, let’s explore two cases studies which exemplify this concept.
Tupperware parties and open outcry auctions.
These examples highlight the situations where human irrationality, under the spell of Lollapalooza, becomes an uncontrolled freight train ripping apart every decision on its way.
Lollapalooza and Tupperware Parties A Tupperware party, according to Munger, is the best example of Lollapalooza effect because multiple psychological biases work in the same direction and push people towards irrational decisions.
Famous psychologist Robert Cialdini, in his book Influence, has written extensively about how the structure of Tupperware parties is designed to exploit many of the human biases.
A Tupperware party takes advantage of four weapons of influence, i.e., reciprocity, liking bias, social proof, and confirmation bias.
Here’s a crash course on these biases.
Reciprocity is the deep-seated urge to return a favour. When someone does something nice for you, it sows the seed to reciprocate. This feeling of obligation to repay is what’s known as reciprocation bias. Even if we didn’t need the initial favour in the first place, it’s hard to get rid of the feeling that you have to return the favour in some form. This urge to reciprocate may lead us to do things which we wouldn’t have done otherwise.
Liking bias explains why people prefer to do business with people they like rather than people they don’t like. And who do we like? Those who are similar to us, who cooperate with us, who makes us feel special. Especially our friends and neighbours. We find it hard to refuse a request that comes from such people.
Social proof is a way to deal with uncertainty. When we’re in doubt we often make decisions by imitating what others are doing. Humans find great comfort in social validation. Following others usually serves well under normal circumstances but social proof can lead us astray when making crucial decisions.
Commitment and consistency bias is when we resist changing our views even if we’re wrong. Once we’ve taken a stand on something, it’s cognitively tough to change it even when we’re shown evidence that counters our original beliefs. The more we affirm our past decisions the stronger we believe in them.
Back to Tupperware party.
The invite for the Tupperware party comes from someone you like — a friend, a colleague, a neighbour or a relative. Liking bias at play. The party then starts with a game where everyone is allowed to win a prize. Winning “prizes” invokes the force of reciprocation. You want to pay back those who gave you the free items. Then old customers are asked to share the benefits of the Tupperware products. This unleashes the commitment bias. Then you see other people at the party buying items and that triggers the social validation — since other similar people want the product; it must be good. Social proof bias at work.
Combine these effects, and it’s not hard to see why many people try to avoid going to a Tupperware party in the first place, because they know that once they are there, they will buy something.
Lollapalooza and Auctions In 2007 Tata Steel acquired Corus group – an Anglo-Dutch steel major. The acquisition happened through a competitive open-outcry auction. Tata Steel submitted a proposal with an initial bid of 455 pence a share. Soon CNN a Brazilian competitor chimed in with an offer of 475 pence. In response, Tatas upped the bid to 500 pence a share. Then CSN raised the bid to 515 pence. After a long drawn bidding war, Tata group eventually won with a bid of 608 pence a share. That was 34 percent higher than Tata’s original proposal. The total payment was $12.1 billion (Rs. 53,580 crores at the then exchange rate) of which $6 billion was debt. At that time Tata Steel’s market cap was less than Rs. 30,000 cr.
By 2014, Tata Steel’s debt had ballooned to more than $13 billion. They never recovered from this mistake.
Social psychology experiments show that bidders in auctions often get carried away and end up bidding far more than the underlying value of the auctioned objects. Such outcomes are almost always the result of the combination of multiple forces working in the same direction.
In his famous lecture title Psychology of Human Misjudgment, Charlie Munger says –
…the open-outcry auction is just made to turn the brain into mush: you’ve got social proof, the other guy is bidding, you get reciprocation tendency, you get deprival super-reaction syndrome, the thing is going away… I mean it just absolutely is designed to manipulate people into idiotic behavior.
The list of cognitive biases that are at play in an auction is just mind-boggling. It starts with greed and envy but doesn’t stop there.
Commitment Bias: Every bid and its escalation is a public commitment. It reinforces and justifies the bidder’s belief that his bid price is right.
Social Proof: You’re in close contact with other people who are all providing social validation that the sale item is valuable.
Low Contrast Effect: Every successive bid is only a tiny increment over the previous one.
Loss Aversion: As the auctioneer starts the countdown on the competitive bid it intensifies the feeling that you’re being deprived of something which was almost yours.
Authority Bias: The auctioneer is seen as a symbol of authority because he certifies the authenticity of the auctioned object. He also announces an initial bidding price which serves as an “anchor.”
Incentive Bias: The incentives of the auctioneer are directly attached to the final price. Higher the winning-price more the commission for the auctioneer.
Scarcity Bias: Auction items are scarce because only one person can have it, and after the bids are finished, you’ve lost your chance.
Do you see what happens to people who get into open-outcry, auction-like situations? That’s why Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have a rule when they get invited to auction situations.
The rule is: Don’t Go.
Lollapalooza and the Stock Market So how does lollapalooza play out in the stock market?
If you think about it, you will arrive at the same conclusion as I did. The stock market is either one big Tupperware party or a giant auction room or both.
The environment in which a typical stock market investor operates today is the breeding ground for many psychological biases — all acting in the same direction. And when forces act in the same direction, as we’ve learnt from Munger, it’s an invitation to lollapalooza.
With the advent of social media, everyone has the power to shout their opinions openly. Publicly voicing your views triggers a strong commitment and consistency effect. Irrespective of how many people actually listen to you, the mere fact that you’ve spoken about a stock openly, engraves those existing beliefs deeper into your own psyche.
The same social media becomes the source of social validation too. When you see hundreds of people talking about an obscure company, it’s difficult to fight the urge to follow the herd. This effect is more pronounced during rapidly falling or rising stock prices.
The incessant noise from the TV channels, financial newspapers, WhatsApp groups and free stock tippers, aggravates the recency bias in an investor’s mind.
And then the mother of all biases – incentive bias.
“I think I’ve been in the top 5 percent of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives,” says Charlie Munger, “and all my life I’ve underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther…Never ever think about something else when you should be thinking about incentives.”
The train of financial industry chugs on the rails of incentives. As a result, the incentive bias among the sellers of financial products creates a moral hazard for the small investors.
“All commissioned salesmen,” said Charlie Munger in 1988 Wesco Financial annual meeting, “have a tendency to serve the transaction instead of the truth.”
To invest in the stock market, a new investor cannot avoid contact with the so-called relationship managers of large financial institutions (banks, brokerage houses, mutual funds, etc.) This customer facing army is equipped with weapons of persuasion to be deployed against the innocent retail investors.
Unfortunately, even after knowing about the power of persuasion principles, it’s hard to resist giving in to the requests coming from these people. They are sharply dressed, they look confident, they are articulate, and sound very convincing. Can you imagine what a gullible investor, who has neither heard of Cialdini’s work nor the workings of Tupperware parties, gets sucked into?
Mr. Market – Benjamin Graham’s figment of imagination – is like the Tupperware hostess who would invite you every day to join the party. He’s also like the auctioneer who wants you to jump into the adrenaline-filled bidding war.
Remember the rule? Don’t go.
The post Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/
0 notes
sunshineweb · 6 years
Text
Latticework of Mental Models: Lollapalooza Effect
Value Investing Workshop in Mumbai (19th Aug, Sold Out), Bangalore (9th Sept), Chennai (23rd Sept). Click here to register now. Few seats remain in Bangalore and Chennai!
Why were Warren Buffett and his creation, Berkshire Hathaway, so unusually successful?
In 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting, someone asked the above question from Charlie Munger. He replied –
If that success in investment isn’t the best in the history of the investment world, it’s certainly in the top five. It’s a lollapalooza.
Lollapalooza in the conventional sense means something outstanding of its kind. A person, a thing or an event that is particularly impressive, or extraordinarily attractive. But being multidisciplinary learners, we shouldn’t be satisfied with the conventional definitions, should we? Moreover, Charlie Munger doesn’t use lollapalooza just for its dictionary meaning.
Here’s the definition of Lollapalooza taken from the book Poor Charlie’s Almanack –
Lollapalooza is, as personified by Charles Munger, the critical mass obtained via a combination of concentration, curiosity, perseverance, and self-criticism, applied through a prism of multidisciplinary mental models.
When Charlie Munger uses the word lollapalooza, he often attaches the word “effects” (as in “lollapalooza effects”) which means that multiple factors are acting together in ways that are feeding back on each other.
In simple words, lollapalooza effect is an outcome which is far bigger than the sum of the parts. Using this mental construct of lollapalooza, one can explain the cause-effect relationship behind extreme events in the world. Not only explain, but Lollapalooza helps us understand the workings of this complex world so that we can leverage that for our own benefit.
In 2017 Daily Journal (DJCO) annual meeting, Munger said –
I coined it when I realized I didn’t know psychology. I bought three comprehensive psychology textbooks and read through them, and like usual I thought they were doing it all wrong, and I could do it better. When three or four tendencies were operating at once in same situation, the outcome wasn’t linear, it was straight up. The scholars were ignoring the most important thing in profession, because they couldn’t do experiments with so many variable operating together, and then they didn’t synthesize it with other disciplines, because they didn’t know squat about other disciplines. I am lonely, but I am right.
Lollapalooza is a great problem-solving tool. When you learn the important mental models and start applying them for problem-solving, you will realize that multiple models seem to converge in one direction and together they form the critical mass for a cascading of positive effects – a lollapalooza. It simplifies your decision making tremendously.
According to Munger, a majority of the worldly problems would be no-brainers if you look at them through the lens of lollapalooza.
To wrap our head around Munger’s idea of lollapalooza effect, let’s explore two cases studies which exemplify this concept.
Tupperware parties and open outcry auctions.
These examples highlight the situations where human irrationality, under the spell of Lollapalooza, becomes an uncontrolled freight train ripping apart every decision on its way.
Lollapalooza and Tupperware Parties A Tupperware party, according to Munger, is the best example of Lollapalooza effect because multiple psychological biases work in the same direction and push people towards irrational decisions.
Famous psychologist Robert Cialdini, in his book Influence, has written extensively about how the structure of Tupperware parties is designed to exploit many of the human biases.
A Tupperware party takes advantage of four weapons of influence, i.e., reciprocity, liking bias, social proof, and confirmation bias.
Here’s a crash course on these biases.
Reciprocity is the deep-seated urge to return a favour. When someone does something nice for you, it sows the seed to reciprocate. This feeling of obligation to repay is what’s known as reciprocation bias. Even if we didn’t need the initial favour in the first place, it’s hard to get rid of the feeling that you have to return the favour in some form. This urge to reciprocate may lead us to do things which we wouldn’t have done otherwise.
Liking bias explains why people prefer to do business with people they like rather than people they don’t like. And who do we like? Those who are similar to us, who cooperate with us, who makes us feel special. Especially our friends and neighbours. We find it hard to refuse a request that comes from such people.
Social proof is a way to deal with uncertainty. When we’re in doubt we often make decisions by imitating what others are doing. Humans find great comfort in social validation. Following others usually serves well under normal circumstances but social proof can lead us astray when making crucial decisions.
Commitment and consistency bias is when we resist changing our views even if we’re wrong. Once we’ve taken a stand on something, it’s cognitively tough to change it even when we’re shown evidence that counters our original beliefs. The more we affirm our past decisions the stronger we believe in them.
Back to Tupperware party.
The invite for the Tupperware party comes from someone you like — a friend, a colleague, a neighbour or a relative. Liking bias at play. The party then starts with a game where everyone is allowed to win a prize. Winning “prizes” invokes the force of reciprocation. You want to pay back those who gave you the free items. Then old customers are asked to share the benefits of the Tupperware products. This unleashes the commitment bias. Then you see other people at the party buying items and that triggers the social validation — since other similar people want the product; it must be good. Social proof bias at work.
Combine these effects, and it’s not hard to see why many people try to avoid going to a Tupperware party in the first place, because they know that once they are there, they will buy something.
Lollapalooza and Auctions In 2007 Tata Steel acquired Corus group – an Anglo-Dutch steel major. The acquisition happened through a competitive open-outcry auction. Tata Steel submitted a proposal with an initial bid of 455 pence a share. Soon CNN a Brazilian competitor chimed in with an offer of 475 pence. In response, Tatas upped the bid to 500 pence a share. Then CSN raised the bid to 515 pence. After a long drawn bidding war, Tata group eventually won with a bid of 608 pence a share. That was 34 percent higher than Tata’s original proposal. The total payment was $12.1 billion (Rs. 53,580 crores at the then exchange rate) of which $6 billion was debt. At that time Tata Steel’s market cap was less than Rs. 30,000 cr.
By 2014, Tata Steel’s debt had ballooned to more than $13 billion. They never recovered from this mistake.
Social psychology experiments show that bidders in auctions often get carried away and end up bidding far more than the underlying value of the auctioned objects. Such outcomes are almost always the result of the combination of multiple forces working in the same direction.
In his famous lecture title Psychology of Human Misjudgment, Charlie Munger says –
…the open-outcry auction is just made to turn the brain into mush: you’ve got social proof, the other guy is bidding, you get reciprocation tendency, you get deprival super-reaction syndrome, the thing is going away… I mean it just absolutely is designed to manipulate people into idiotic behavior.
The list of cognitive biases that are at play in an auction is just mind-boggling. It starts with greed and envy but doesn’t stop there.
Commitment Bias: Every bid and its escalation is a public commitment. It reinforces and justifies the bidder’s belief that his bid price is right.
Social Proof: You’re in close contact with other people who are all providing social validation that the sale item is valuable.
Low Contrast Effect: Every successive bid is only a tiny increment over the previous one.
Loss Aversion: As the auctioneer starts the countdown on the competitive bid it intensifies the feeling that you’re being deprived of something which was almost yours.
Authority Bias: The auctioneer is seen as a symbol of authority because he certifies the authenticity of the auctioned object. He also announces an initial bidding price which serves as an “anchor.”
Incentive Bias: The incentives of the auctioneer are directly attached to the final price. Higher the winning-price more the commission for the auctioneer.
Scarcity Bias: Auction items are scarce because only one person can have it, and after the bids are finished, you’ve lost your chance.
Do you see what happens to people who get into open-outcry, auction-like situations? That’s why Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have a rule when they get invited to auction situations.
The rule is: Don’t Go.
Lollapalooza and the Stock Market So how does lollapalooza play out in the stock market?
If you think about it, you will arrive at the same conclusion as I did. The stock market is either one big Tupperware party or a giant auction room or both.
The environment in which a typical stock market investor operates today is the breeding ground for many psychological biases — all acting in the same direction. And when forces act in the same direction, as we’ve learnt from Munger, it’s an invitation to lollapalooza.
With the advent of social media, everyone has the power to shout their opinions openly. Publicly voicing your views triggers a strong commitment and consistency effect. Irrespective of how many people actually listen to you, the mere fact that you’ve spoken about a stock openly, engraves those existing beliefs deeper into your own psyche.
The same social media becomes the source of social validation too. When you see hundreds of people talking about an obscure company, it’s difficult to fight the urge to follow the herd. This effect is more pronounced during rapidly falling or rising stock prices.
The incessant noise from the TV channels, financial newspapers, WhatsApp groups and free stock tippers, aggravates the recency bias in an investor’s mind.
And then the mother of all biases – incentive bias.
“I think I’ve been in the top 5 percent of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives,” says Charlie Munger, “and all my life I’ve underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther…Never ever think about something else when you should be thinking about incentives.”
The train of financial industry chugs on the rails of incentives. As a result, the incentive bias among the sellers of financial products creates a moral hazard for the small investors.
“All commissioned salesmen,” said Charlie Munger in 1988 Wesco Financial annual meeting, “have a tendency to serve the transaction instead of the truth.”
To invest in the stock market, a new investor cannot avoid contact with the so-called relationship managers of large financial institutions (banks, brokerage houses, mutual funds, etc.) This customer facing army is equipped with weapons of persuasion to be deployed against the innocent retail investors.
Unfortunately, even after knowing about the power of persuasion principles, it’s hard to resist giving in to the requests coming from these people. They are sharply dressed, they look confident, they are articulate, and sound very convincing. Can you imagine what a gullible investor, who has neither heard of Cialdini’s work nor the workings of Tupperware parties, gets sucked into?
Mr. Market – Benjamin Graham’s figment of imagination – is like the Tupperware hostess who would invite you every day to join the party. He’s also like the auctioneer who wants you to jump into the adrenaline-filled bidding war.
Remember the rule? Don’t go.
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