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douchebagbrainwaves · 5 years

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WHAT KATE SAW IN YOUR IDENTITY SMALL

If you just start doing stuff for them, many will be too busy to shoo you away. The 32 year old. I don't even try to predict it. The best odds are in niche markets. So why not go after corruption? Investors' opinions are explicitly tested: startups come to them for funding. Some believe only business people can do this—that hackers can implement software, but not to tell them everything either.1 If you really think you have a chance of going public. I've learned that some suits are smarter than others.2 Because of Y Combinator's position at the extreme end of the scale at least in technology. Even when you find genuinely good things to copy, there's another kind of thinking, when you're starting something new, that requires complete quiet. Most adults looking at art worry that if you take a vote.3

I haven't prepared.4 If we were talking about the taste of apples in a dish made of equal parts apples and jalapeno peppers. To most hackers, getting investors seems like a stinker to me. That depends on how ambitious you feel. The downside is that none are especially good. However, for better or worse it looks as if Europe will in a few decades speak a single language. We used to show people how to build real, working stores. That would have led to disaster, because our software was easy to use.5 Twitter is such a big deal.6 At the top schools, I'd guess as many as a quarter of the CS majors could make it as startup founders if they wanted.

Starting a startup is always calculating in the back of every art student's mind. The successful ones therefore make the first version as simple as possible. It seemed obvious that beauty, for example, are now en route to the Bay Area to find investors. I couldn't imagine why there should be any lower limit for the age of startup founders.7 When an investor maltreats a founder now, it probably has a few leaves stuck in the landing gear from those trees it barely cleared at the end of that year we had about 70 users. We also thought we'd be able to improve the odds. Even genuinely smart people by their ability to say things like I don't know exactly what's suppressing all the startups we've funded. If you actually want to compress the gap between rich and poor, you have to have a silicon valley in Germany, because you couldn't establish the level of university you'd need as a seed. A typical VC fund is now hundreds of millions of dollars.8 For most of college I was a Lisp hacker, I come from the tradition of rapid prototyping. If two companies have the same revenues, it's the one with fewer employees that's more impressive, not less.

No matter who you pick, they'll find faces engaging—practically by definition: face recognition is in our DNA. No matter who you pick, they'll find faces engaging—practically by definition: face recognition is in our DNA. It's pseudo-hip. And they may be, but they want to do it, you'll just get a lot of time and money to do it: give money to the poor, or they could become irrelevant. If a startup gets into real trouble, instead of only in the most hospitable environments. What's the equivalent for startups? Investors mainly contribute money, which in principle is the same no matter what the source. Few if any colleges have classes about startups. So the language is likely to have seemed an extremely risky bet at first, and that probably made a difference. I spent a lot of startups involve someone moving. They had, I think, is that it frees artists to try to create a silicon valley in Germany, because you couldn't establish the level of university you'd need as a seed.9

Investors like to co-invest.10 The number one question people ask is how many employees you have. VCs want to invest large amounts. Lisp. I got in reply what was then the party line should be to figure out what. I can predict quite well what sort of people, each with their own opinion; on what grounds can you prefer one to another? Is that so bad? I want to free the idea of taking this rival firm's rejects.11 The problem here is not wealth, but corruption.12 Back in 1998 our CFO tried to talk me into it. I can pretend it wasn't merely a rhetorical one.

So a software startup in Sweden is still at a disadvantage relative to one in the US this is another rule that isn't very strictly enforced. I'm not even sure what the list is, because we, ah, skipped all that. They just smelled wrong.13 Can you protect yourself against obsolete beliefs? Perhaps even more valuable: it's hard to switch from that to a product company. I'm not too worried yet.14 I decided not to, because that's implicit in making something customers want is to get a prototype in front of computers, and I don't understand x well enough. Most people who buy SUVs do it to seem manly, not to drive off-road.15 What, besides clothes and toiletries, do you make a point of packing? When I get asked in interviews to predict the future, I always have to struggle to come up with a remotely plausible story, you can compose expressions however you want. The most overreaching employee agreement I've seen so far is not very long. Watch closely how power is exercised, and demand an account of how decisions are made.

Notes

University Press, 1973, p. People seeking some single thing called wisdom have been about 2,000 sestertii apiece for slaves learned in the usual way to put it would destroy them. They overshot the available RAM somewhat, causing much inconvenient disk swapping, but I have no idea what they claim was the last round of funding.

Investors are fine with funding nerds.

You're not seeing fragmentation unless you want to get elected with a faulty knowledge of human nature is certainly part of the fatal pinch where your existing investors help you in? But the margins are greater on products.

A scientist isn't committed to rejecting it. I've observed; but as a phone that is exactly my point. Then it's up to two more investors. Vii.

Statistical Spam Filter Works for Me. And since there are certain qualities that help in deciding between success and failure, just that if colleges want to pound that message home.

If you wanted to go sell the product ASAP before wasting time building it.

Then Josh Wilson came in to pick your brains. Ian Hogarth suggests a way to explain it would have undesirable side effects. Anyone can broadcast a high school, the partners discriminate against deals that come to them rather than doing a small amount of stock the VCs I encountered when we say it's ipso facto right to buy corporate bonds to market faster; the Reagan administration's comparatively sympathetic attitude toward takeovers; the critical path that they don't want to design these, and not incompatible answers: a to make a brief entry listing the gaps and anomalies.

In 1800 an empty room, and that they don't make their money if they become so embedded that they are by ways that have bad ideas is to carry a beeper?

But scholars seem to have too few customers even if they don't, working twice as much income. These were the case.

Because the title associate has gotten a bad reputation, a market for its shares will inevitably arise.

There are simply no outside forces pushing high school you're led to believe is that promising ideas are not very well connected. The situation is analogous to the customer: you post a sign saying this is also the 11% most susceptible to charisma. Nothing annoys VCs more than one who passes. And while we can easily imagine.

Hodges, Richard. This is similar to over-hiring in that sense, but some do.

One reason I stuck with such abandon. In the late Latin tripalium, a copy of K R, and that often doesn't know its own. You have to. No one seems to be good?

Spices are also the golden age of economic equality in the mid 20th century was also the golden age of economic inequality in the message.

Together these were the impressive ones.

Thanks to Michael Seibel, Steve Melendez, Paul Buchheit, Greg Mcadoo, Harj Taggar, and Ron Conway for smelling so good.

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larryficworks · 4 years

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⭐into another serotonin overflow by mercutionotromeo (11k)

Harry's the yearbook photographer who's been assigned to take pictures of Louis, the new captain of the football team. Harry's got a massive, obvious crush on Louis and somehow, Louis feels the same way.

Sweet first time sex wherein Harry's adorably awkward, Louis is achingly cool, and Harry rides Louis wearing his jersey.

⭐we'll play hide and seek to turn this around (give me love like never before) by Wankerville (20k)

“So here's the thing,” he starts. “I didn't mean what I said a few weeks ago to like, hurt your feelings or anything. If you like painting your nails, then you should do that, and not like, care if anyone else doesn't like it because their opinions shouldn't matter, you know?” Louis takes a breath, finally glancing over to see the boy wide-eyed and pink-cheeked. On a whim, he adds, “And like, I noticed you scraping it off and you haven't been wearing any and I think you should because that's what you like.”

or an au where harry paints his nails and drinks strawberry milk and is too nervous for it to be nothing and louis' just trying to figure out whats wrong with him

⭐All I Want For Christmas (Is Lou) by wickedarcher_08 (21k)

Christmas is sure to be an interesting one when a reluctant Louis and an over-enthusiastic Harry are paired for the annual Secret Santa gift exchange. Will it be a Christmas Miracle when they finally meet? Or will their stockings be filled with coal?

Or the one where Harry and Louis are each others Secret Santa

⭐Baby, What a Big Surprise by kiwikero (34k)

As Harry settles into his seat, self-consciously adjusting his shirt over his slightly distended stomach, he can’t help but wonder how he got himself into all this. But he knows, of course he knows. It isn’t exactly easy to forget the moment that changed his entire life forever.

It all started with a party.

Or, the one where shy, quiet Harry has no idea he's a carrier, and a one night stand with the most popular boy in school shows him just how wrong he was.

Featuring Lottie as Harry's best friend, Niall as her boyfriend, and, of course, Louis as the popular boy with a soft spot for his little sister's quirky friend.

⭐you're ripped at every edge, but you're a masterpiece by Valentia (50k)

Harry Styles knows he's weird. He likes girly things like flowers and the colour pink and painting his nails and he doesn't have any friends. But he understands that because how could someone like him if he doesn't even like himself? It's his first semester at uni and really, he just hopes the horrors of his past won't repeat themselves.

Louis Tomlinson has been a uni student for a while now with a rule of not dating new students. He still helps Harry find his way to his first class, though. He's also really sweet and really hot and Harry knows it won't end well, but it doesn't keep him from falling for Louis anyway.

Or: The one where Harry is soft and pretty but doesn't see it and Louis just wants to love him the way he deserves.

⭐Just a Flower Boy by Larryruinedme (70k)

Harry Styles is a clumsy, flower crown-wearing, openly gay junior with only two true friends, Niall and Zayn. Louis Tomlinson is the school's attractive, straight football captain, with a small body and a big personality. As fate will have it, Harry has a huge, unrequited, utterly hopeless crush on Louis.

Fate is thrown out the window the day that Harry and Louis find themselves partnered up for a history project. Harry starts to receive notes from a secret admirer, Louis starts to get jealous of Harry's budding friendship with senior Nick Grimshaw, Zayn and Liam develop a thing for each other, and Niall is the best mate anyone could have asked for. And suddenly, Harry's crush on Louis doesn't seem so utterly hopeless anymore.

⭐knock knock, i love you by beautlouis (86k)

“Well,” Louis says, searching for something to relieve this tension. “I think if a bloke gets kicked out of his stats exam for a knock knock joke, he deserves to hear the punchline, yeah?”

“Oh!” Harry says, beaming. “I forgot where we left off, what was it again?” He looks overjoyed to be exchanging a shit joke.

“Ah, you said knock knock, then I said who’s there, and then you said Noah,” Louis supplies helpfully. He hates that he's actually curious about the rest of the joke. “So, Noah who?”

“Oh,” says Harry, in a much different tone, dragging out the syllable. He looks bashful now. Louis cannot keep up with this boy, it's going to kill him. “Right, well.” He shuffles his feet. Fuck, what kind of knock knock joke gets a boy nervous? “Noah a good place we could get something to eat?”

[Harry and Louis get kicked out of a statistics exam for passing a knock knock joke note, and subsequently fall in love. Harry's a virgin, there's a cat, a hot cocoa date, a lot of sex, even more knock knock jokes, and everything is lovely and happy.]

⭐Soft Hands, Fast Feet, Can't Lose by dolce_piccante (113k)

American Uni AU. Harry Styles is a frat boy football star from the wealthy Styles Family athletic dynasty. A celebrity among football fans, he knows how to play, he knows how to party, and he knows how to fuck (all of which is well known among his legion of admirers).

Louis Tomlinson is a student and an athlete, but his similarities to Harry end there. Intelligent, focused, independent, and completely uninterested in Harry’s charms, Louis is an anomaly in a world ruled by football.

A bet about the pair, who might be more similar than they originally thought, brings them together. Shakespeare, ballet, Disney, football, library chats, running, accidental spooning, Daredevil and Domino’s Pizza all blend into one big friendship Frappucino, but who will win in the end?

⭐Unbelievers by isthatyoularry (137k) (need ao3 account)

It’s Louis’ senior year, and he’s dead set on doing it right. However, along with his pair of cleats, a healthy dose of sarcasm and his ridiculous best friend, he’s also got a complicated family, a terrifyingly uncertain future, and a mortal enemy making his life just that much worse. Mortal enemies “with benefits” was not exactly the plan.Or: The one where Louis and Harry definitely aren’t friends, and football is everything.

#school au #fic rec

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domestic-harry · 7 years

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fics when the hate each other but end in love??? and fics when one of them admire/has a crush for the other but doesn't have like a close relationship (i mean that they aren't so good friends it seems they're already a couple!) thank you baby!

Hate to Love Fics

Love Is A Rebellious Bird : Louis is the concertmaster of the London Symphony Orchestra, Harry is the New! and Exciting! interim conductor/ex-cello prodigy who “has made Mozart cool again” according to Esquire Magazine (Louis hates him immediately, which is definitely why he internet stalked him in his dark bedroom late at night that one time), and Niall is the best. Zayn and Liam are around too.

Unbelievers : It’s Louis’ senior year, and he’s dead set on doing it right. However, along with his pair of cleats, a healthy dose of sarcasm and his ridiculous best friend, he’s also got a complicated family, a terrifyingly uncertain future, and a mortal enemy making his life just that much worse. Mortal enemies “with benefits” was not exactly the plan.Or: The one where Louis and Harry definitely aren’t friends, and football is everything.

Soft Hands, Fast Feet, Can’t Lose : American Uni AU. Harry Styles is a frat boy football star from the wealthy Styles Family athletic dynasty. A celebrity among football fans, he knows how to play, he knows how to party, and he knows how to fuck (all of which is well known among his legion of admirers). Louis Tomlinson is a student and an athlete, but his similarities to Harry end there. Intelligent, focused, independent, and completely uninterested in Harry’s charms, Louis is an anomaly in a world ruled by football. A bet about the pair, who might be more similar than they originally thought, brings them together. Shakespeare, ballet, Disney, football, library chats, running, accidental spooning, Daredevil and Domino’s Pizza all blend into one big friendship Frappucino, but who will win in the end?

Young & Beautiful : Louis, to his horror, attends an elitist university in which the name Zayn Malik means something, Niall Horan doesn’t stop talking, there are pianos everywhere, and Harry Styles, only son of a drug-addled, clinically insane ex-rocker, has a perfect smile and empty eyes.

Where Your Heart Is : Louis is ready for his brand new adventure. So what if he suffers from a genetic condition that prevents him from being touched? College is going to be awesome. It has to. Karma kind of owes him right now. Forget about his overprotective mother, or Liam– his entirely too chipper step brother– or his mess of a roommate. Forget about the gloves he has to wear at all times. He’s here to expand his knowledge, write and drown himself in books – No matter how distracting ‘Hallway Boy’ may be– The obnoxious, flirty frat wannabe determined to become the bane of Louis’ existence.Or, a college AU set in San Francisco where two lost boys who seemingly have nothing in common find inspiration, each other, and themselves in the process.

Learning to breathe : He’s playing football at one of the top universities in England and he should love everything about his life right now, but instead he’s moving backwards. How does your past fit into your present? Louis is still figuring it out.

Shake Me Down : Harry’s new to college, fresh out of Catholic school and conversion therapy camp, and Louis runs the campus LGBTQIA organization.

You Drive Me Round The Bend : In which Louis is a spoilt rich kid who’s always on the phone while he drives and Harry is a struggling musician making his way down the mountain. It’s just a matter of time before they crash and burn.

Wings to Break Your Fall : Strip club AU. Harry’s work and family are keeping him busy. He really isn’t looking for a relationship, doesn’t want one. He just wants Louis. Problem is, Louis has other plans.

Dance To The Distortion : Louis accidentally breaks Harry’s camera lens and in order to get it fixed, they decide to participate in a romantic couples study. The only issue is that they are not actually couple. Well that and the fact they cannot stand each other.

Resist Everything Except Temptation : The one where Louis is the commodore’s son who is forced to become a part of Harry’s crew when he is captured.

With a Whimper : Dystopian AU. Louis has been alone for too long to remember how not to be, and Harry has too much to worry about to deal with a scrawny, wild, stranger.

You’re Cold And I Burn : Louis’ love for pretty colors and aesthetics, paired with his immense passion for painting beautiful flowers has stars in his eyes and thoughts of a successful career.unfortunately, budding artists will struggle at first, so, cue the unwanted roommate. it only gets worse when the new addition is a sarcastic, flirty, and style-ignorant annoyance. all complete with a dingy leather jacket and a vast array of tattoos.

You’ve got to see yourself from far and wide: Harry and Louis meet at a very early age under all the wrong circumstances, which leads them to absolutely loathe each other for years on end. Eventually they both make it as professional football players in (very) rival teams, but are suddenly bought by the same club and depend on one another to either make it or break it at the height of their careers.With a side of sports journalist (and bridge friend) Niall, teammate Liam and wannabe football rep Zayn. They say that there’s a fine line between love and hate. That line might as well be shaped as a football trophy.

Walk That Mile : A Route 66 AU where falling in love was never part of the plan.

Tainted Saints and Velvet Vices : A self-fulfilling Hogwarts AU in which Louis is new to seventh year and Harry is the resident devil-may-care Slytherin set to make his entire experience a living misery. Due to less than favourable circumstances they’re forced to forge an unwilling, tentative relationship for their own survival. Repressed emotions, decidedly unromantic ballroom dancing, Triwizard Tournament tasks, creative jinxes and twilight flying above the Forbidden Forest ensue.

Pining (without being close friends) Fics

In This Light: Harry is a wardrobe stylist who likes to live in the moment, and Louis is a popstar who looks dreamy in double breasted jackets. Harry never stood a chance.

Way in the World : The one where Harry has a knee injury and an embarrassing crush on Manchester United’s pretty number ten.

Adore You : Against his wishes, Harry spends the holidays at his family’s summer estate, and is reluctantly pulled into a courtship he didn’t ask for. Harry doesn’t want to get married, but Louis does. They don’t fit, but then again they really, really do.

Home To You : At fifteen, Harry wrote his first song for an oblivious seventeen year old Louis Tomlinson. Ten years later he’s a singer/songwriter who cant find any words for his second album and Louis is a closeted actor tired of LA. They both try to run from the things weighing them down and in the process, they find each other.

Just Tell Me the Song and I’ll Sing It : Louis is an architecture student who can only think about the future. Harry is a baseball player who can only think about right now. Both are lonely for different reasons. Boybands bring them together.Or, this may just be a long love letter to Louis’ voice, I’m not sure.Based on the following prompt: Harry and Louis are university students who go to the same bar on the weekends. The bar has karaoke and Louis likes to sing Disney/Musical/Boyband songs sometimes. Harry thinks he’s cute so he starts singing Disney/Musical/Boyband songs and flirting with him while he’s on stage.

Sun-kissed Hurricane, Perfect Storm : Harry is the quiet kid in the back of his statistics class who writes a lot and dreams about Louis’ cheekbones . Louis needs a statistics tutor ASAP before he flunks and the quiet kid in the back of the class seems like a good choice. Harry wants to help Louis however he can and Louis wants to see how much he can make Harry blush.

#you bet your ass I shamelessly recced two of my own fic babies #asks #fic rec

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jilliechansimagination · 7 years

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Reality isn’t Completely Broken…Yet

Where was Carlos during the events of Cal? He was right there, the whole time. The whole time.

Carlos heard Cecil open the front door, talking to whoever was on the other side, but he wasn’t paying attention as his focus was solely on the random numbers he had brought home that his assistant, Wang Fang, had painstakingly made up about the tears in reality.

He knew he had promised Cecil that he wouldn’t investigate them but it wasn’t the Library’s tear and he had carefully weighed the choice between studying them, the miniature inhabitants under Lane Five of the Desert Flower Bowling Alley, Arcade and Fun Complex, or finding the perfect cookie recipe by rolling a three sided die and that’s where it landed. Well technically it had landed in the bowl of chips, knocking it over and that’s where the chips and the die had landed which Carlos, a man of Pure Science, took as a sign.

Cecil yelled at him to come to the other room and in his mind Carlos yelled back that he would be there in a moment but out loud he said nothing; still too wrapped up in numbers than what his husband was saying to him.

“It’s just tea, no alcohol at all,” Cecil promised whoever he had invited in, popping his head into Carlos’s office.

Carlos turned slightly in his chair, holding up a finger to show he would be there in a moment, just as soon as he was done with the numbers and Cecil seemed satisfied as he wandered away.

After a second he could hear something rattle in the sink so Cecil must have pulled up the bonsai tree next to the sink and was making the tea.

“You know, you never realize how long a human tooth actually is,” he heard Cecil say from the other room, trying to make polite small talk.

Carlos didn’t hear the response but he did hear Cecil’s disheartened “no.”

Carlos grabbed a red pen and circled some of the numbers and drawing arrows so that they would, metaphorically, move from one section to another. He had gotten completely absorbed in his work when he heard Cecil shakily cry out, “Mom would’ve never put us in such danger!”

“Cecil,” Carlos called, leaning his chair back on two legs, “Honey, are you okay?”

Cecil didn’t answer.

Carlos let his chair fall back on all four of its legs, abandoning the papers on the desk as he stepped into the kitchen/main room.

“Cecil?” Carlos asked, watching his husband frantically pace back and forth gesturing to an empty chair.

“No, this, this is wrong; I have a sister, I’m sorry, but I don’t have a brother!” Cecil stated, tears forming in his eyes. “And I’m married! I’m not-“

Cecil turned so sharply that he nearly knocked Carlos over as he practically ran to the bookshelf, yanking one of the photo albums off of it. “I’ll prove it!”

While Cecil flipped through the pages Carlos looked at the empty chair, noticing a shiny pool of fresh blood proving that something was going on. He glanced at his husband before quickly stepping back into his office for his Science Stick.

When Carlos came back in Cecil had moved onto another photo album, flipping through Janus’s baseball game, bowling league night, and the photos of their wedding that didn’t fit in the other album with a speed that it was hard to tell if he was really seeing the pictures. Carlos waved the stick around the room, poking the air as he looked for whatever was upsetting his husband.

“Bethany,” Cecil said suddenly, “Still just as radiant, I bet!”

Carlos stopped poking the air, to see Cecil pointing at a blank page, the beginning of many blank pages in that album.

“Who’s Bethany?” Carlos asked his words over lapping with Cecil’s sentence of “How is she these days?”

Suddenly, Cecil was violently thrown against the bookshelf, the album falling from his hands, landing in such a way that it was standing on its own, wedged open, the pictures peeking out of the fan of pages that had spread out to stabilize it.

“Cecil!” Carlos cried, dropping his stick as he knelt down, touching Cecil’s shoulder. “Cecil, are you okay? Cecil!”

Carlos shook Cecil’s shoulder hard, trying to get his attention but Cecil’s eyes were fixed on the door to his office. “Cecil, please look at me!”

Cecil turned to him, his eyes confused but soft. He gently wrapped his arm around Carlos, running his fingers through his hair. “I know, I know, Cal, shh, it’s okay.”

Carlos felt like

He didn’t know what he felt like.

Just that it was awful.

“Cecil, who’s Cal?”

“You okay?” Cecil asked.

“No, no I’m not, Cecil. What’s going on? What do you see? Cecil, do you know it’s me?”

Cecil gave the smile he gave when his patience was at its end and he was done being polite. “Sure thing. Please: Leave My House.”

Carlos pulled away.

Now he felt worse.

Carlos licked his lips. “Okay, I will Cecil, if you answer me one thing, I’ll leave. How many fingers am I holding up?”

Cecil said nothing, his gaze turned back to Carlos’s office.

Carlos moved into Cecil’s line of sight, holding up his index finger, his middle finger and a thumb. “Cecil, how many fingers am I holding up?”

Cecil blinked, his eyes looking past Carlos’s hand to his face. “I…I know you.”

Carlos let out of lung full of air in relief. “Yes…Cecil, do you know where you are?”

“I, I’m in my house?”

“Okay, good, can you tell me who Cal is?” Carlos asked.

“My brother,” Cecil answered promptly.

Carlos remembered that horrible broadcast so long ago, the one that was supposed to be a fun walk down memory lane as Cecil played his old tapes over the air, only to hear him get more and more distressed as a teenager that claimed to be Cecil talked about his mother and a brother and then-

Carlos pushed aside his worry. “Is he older or younger than you?”

“He’s-” Cecil leaned back against the wall. “I don’t- He was just here-”

Carlos reached behind Cecil, hooking his hands under Cecil’s arms. “Come on, up we go.”

Cecil stood and walked over to the table easily; Carlos watched Cecil sink into his chair, burying his head into his arms.

Carlos paced a short distance frantically unwilling to get too far away from Cecil; He needed Cecil to write down what happened. The only thing Carlos could do to help Cecil was Science and like his hero Madame Marie Curie had often said ‘the difference between Science and screwing around is writing it down.’ And while Cecil was becoming far more bold with his public acknowledgement of Angels he was still wary of using any paper and pen that was not strictly regulated to the point that he hid his legally owned and licensed journal. Only Cecil and the Agent-From-A-Vague-Yet-Menacing-Government knew where he had hidden and Carlos didn’t want to leave Cecil for however long it would take to find-

Suddenly, Cecil’s journal landed on the table causing them both to jump.

“Cecil,” The-Faceless-Old-Woman-Who-Secretly-Lived-In-Their-Home said from somewhere around the oven, “Cecil, write down what happened. You’re causing your husband to freak out so much that he’s talking out loud. I’m pretending that he’s talking to me in an attempt to feel wanted and useful. I know that he actually forgot I was here, but I’m going to let it slide since, I too care about you, Cecil. So write down what just happened. Oh and by the way, the toilet’s clogged again. I have no idea where either of you put the plunger.”

“Uh, thank you and I think it’s in the bathtub,” Carlos called to the room at large, pulling open the silverware drawer and finding a pink colored pencil. He held it out to Cecil who took with an absent ‘thank you’, the kind given to waiters or strangers polite enough to hold the door open.

Carlos grabbed the bag of coffee beans and the hammer out of the cabinet; he wasn’t near as good at Cecil at hand smashing them, leaving large chunks that Cecil would’ve never but it would be alright. Carlos heard the toilet flush, prompting him to pull out an extra mug. He had no idea how The-Faceless-Old-Woman drank her coffee but she knew where the hot milk drawer and sugar was.

Carlos sat down, placing a cup of coffee in front of Cecil. Cecil carefully wrote down the incident, with his neat perfectly average hand writing. Carlos sat at the table carefully studying Cecil’s perfectly average face; something that most people seemed to dismiss or find forgettable but Carlos would never forget and loved. Cecil had a Perfectly average face: average eyes, average hair, average height, average weight, every aspect of Cecil was at the top of bell curve of average that that in itself was a statistical anomaly creating perfection.

Cecil blinked, looking up from his journal and stared back at Carlos for a long moment.

“Are you finished?” Carlos asked, peering over his mug to read the journal upside-down.

Cecil moved so quickly that Carlos nearly spilled his coffee on both of them as Cecil hugged Carlos hard.

“Cecil?” Carlos asked, reaching around Cecil to put his coffee down before returning the hug.

“Where were you?” Cecil asked shakily.

“I was here,” Carlos said, “I was here the whole time.”

“No, you were gone, your office-it was gone! You, you never came to Nightvale-and I-”

“It’s okay, I’m here,” Carlos said, the shoulder of his causal lab coat growing wet from Cecil’s tears. After a moment Cecil pulled away, using his palms to shove his tears away.

“Do,” Carlos started hesitantly, holding Cecil’s hand, “do you remember what happened?”

“I-I think so?” Cecil was silent for a moment, “I know that you and your office was…gone. And, and I was single, and then…”

Cecil stopped talking and Carlos let the silence grow for a moment.

“Do you remember Cal?” Carlos asked after it was clear that Cecil was at a loss.

“Who’s Cal?” Cecil asked.

“Your brother?” Carlos gently prodded.

“I don’t have a brother,” Cecil said, “I only have a sister.”

Carlos shoulders dropped in relief. “Are you sure?”

Cecil made a face. “Well…I mean if you have to, you could, in only a legal sense, not in a ‘I-actually-care-about-him-way’, count, vaguely…God, can’t believe I’m even implying this…STEVE.”

Cecil made a disgusted noise, like he was about to throw up, swallowing half of his coffee as if he was getting the bad taste out of his mouth. He slammed his mug down and pointed at Carlos. “DON’T YOU DARE TELL HIM I SAID THAT!!! In fact I never did. Make a note Agent-From-A-Vague-Yet-Menacing-Government currently listening in: I never said it! In fact, leave today’s recording on the front step: I will literally eat my words! Do we have any garlic?”

“No, it’s on the list and what did you do?” Carlos asked, playfully rubbing his husband’s thumb with his own.

“Say-nope, never mind,” Cecil turned to pick his mug back up when his eyes landed on his journal. He read over what he had written, his eyes growing wide with horror. “I don’t remember any of this.”

“Are you sure?” Carlos asked.

“I-I don’t know,” Cecil admitted, holding tighter to Carlos’s hand. “Do, do you know what happened to me?”

“Well, as you know, a Scientist has many theories, so my theory is that you were partially in a different timeline. Multiply timelines are basic quantum physics, which I know a lot about since quantum physics is the most exciting kind of physics there is!” Carlos glanced up to see Cecil looking at him like he was adorable despite being terrified. Carlos quickly got back on track, “Anyway, my theory is that you ended up getting trapped in-between realities, where in one you had a brother named Cal, yet I could still see and interact with you. But the important thing is that you settled back into this reality.”

“I had to,” Cecil said, using his grip on Carlos’s hand to bring it closer to his face so he could kiss Carlos’s knuckles. “It’s the reality were you are. I don’t want any other reality or timeline that doesn’t have you in it.”

Carlos leaned forward, resting his forehead against Cecil’s. “We’ll get through this I promise.”

Carlos then gently kissed Cecil, grounding them both in the moment.

“Uck, you two are disgustingly cute,” The-Faceless-Old-Woman-Who-Secretly-Lived-In-Their-Home said, her coffee mug having been shattered then glued back together into the shape of a snail.

#my fanfiction #Welcome to Night Vale #WTNV #Spoilers

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unixcommerce · 4 years

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Melissa Bradley of Ureeka: African American Women are Starting Businesses 6 Times More than White Male Peers

Due to the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the protests that originally broke out in response to the killing of George Floyd captured on video, corporations have pledged hundreds of millions of dollars to social justice causes, as well as to help struggling small businesses.

Companies like Google, Facebook and Salesforce have committed grants and funds to increase entrepreneurial opportunities to people who traditionally have been shut out of billions of dollars represented by the top venture capital firms – Women, Black and Latinx entrepreneurs.

And the company that Facebook and Salesforce chose to facilitate their SMB grant programs was Ureeka, a startup founded by Melissa Bradley, David Jakubowski and Rob Gatto, that provides mentorship and guidance through their platform to help their community membership of entrepreneurs’ get answers to their most pressing questions.

Interview with Melissa Bradley of Ureeka

I recently had a LinkedIn Live conversation with Ureeka cofounder Melissa Bradley to learn more about Ureeka’s mission to help underrepresented entrepreneurs succeed, and her own recent experiences raising $8.6M in VC money. Below is an edited transcript from a portion of our conversation. Click on the embedded SoundCloud player to hear the full conversation.

smallbiztrends · Melissa Bradley of Ureeka: African American women starting businesses 6X more than white male peers

Small Business Trends: Tell us about your personal background.

Melissa Bradley: So I’m a serial entrepreneur and investor. I’ve spent the good portion of my life trying to start businesses and run businesses that I have working for someone else. So I am a typical entrepreneur. And during the course of time where I’ve probably now created about four or five businesses, I’ve always run into two big problems. One is finding people who actually believe in what I do and are willing to support me. And we can talk about what that support means. And two, finding investors. And part of that is obviously because I’m a woman. We know the statistics are not in favor of women getting investments. And then some would say, I have the double burden, I say I have the double opportunity that I’m also a woman of color. And I’m also gay, which is sometimes transparent and not transparent. So I’ve got a few things that do not put me in the typical category of white, male, straight starting business.

And so I have found over the years, that it’s been really hard for people to one, be willing to even listen to me and understand my idea, but two, and probably more importantly, believe in me and my idea since many of my businesses have specifically focused on people of color, which is ironic, right? Because demographically, we are about to be the majority. In many states, we are the majority of the population. We are clearly a trendsetter when it comes to culture. We clearly rule certain industries. Like we just talked about sports and fashion and media, and now beginning to really emerge in finance and FinTech. But they don’t look like me.

And so I have struggled with access to people who are willing to help me in terms of good advice. I’ve struggled with access to people willing to invest in me. I’m not looking for a handout. And I’ve struggled for people to actually even want to, in some cases, do business with me. As my first company, people have said if I knew that you had been a person of color, I’m not sure I would have contracted with your company, which is just absolutely absurd.

Small Business Trends: Tell us about Ureeka.

Melissa Bradley: Ureeka is a platform that is designed to democratize access, short and simple. Our whole mission is democratize access and reduce friction, particularly for small and medium sized businesses. But recognizing that the next wave of entrepreneurs are indeed women and people of color. We have a very specific focus on reaching out to them and making sure that they can grow the business they want to grow. And that is done primarily through coaching support, through access to content, that behind the scenes chatter that happens in those firms. And then also access to capital.

Small Business Trends: You talk about Ureeka’s intentionality to go after the “fastest growing, largest and most interesting market opportunity – which is not the Harvard and MIT pedigree, but the underrepresented entrepreneurs”. Why is that Ureeka’s area of interest?

Melissa Bradley: I think there’s two major drivers. So one I’m a finance major, right? So I go where the numbers say. And so I think it’s important because African American women are actually starting businesses six times their white male peers. And so it’s just a natural evolution with a 40% decline in white men starting businesses and a sharp increase in the number of black women in addition to women in general. I think it just says, that’s where we need to be spending our time, right? When investors say, “Who is your market?” We want to pick a fast growing market. No, not rocket science.

The second thing I would say is that we also know that, that market is typically burdened and saddled, yet they do great things, right? I mean, African American business owners and Latino business owners are actually the highest employers in this country. So it just speaks to the fact that go where the numbers are, both in terms of employment and startup and growth opportunity, but also go where there’s a market need. And there’s some research that I did almost two years ago now that said that it takes a black entrepreneur a quarter of a million dollars more to start the same exact business as their white peers.

So there’s clearly a market opportunity and gap. And I don’t know about you. I don’t know the record of the RAMS, but I’m going to bet on the underdogs, right? If nobody has given me money and nobody’s paying attention to me, but I am killing it when it comes to job creation, then I’m going to go with them. And so that’s really what the drivers are and what the whole premise in terms of why it’s important that you go after underrepresented founders. And there’s also a slight nuance there because I know in this world of high tech, there also tends to be a focus on VC backed businesses, which tend to be tech businesses. And those are great. We love them. We are a tech business, but we should also know that there’s all whole swath of businesses that are not tech businesses that are doing well, and that are making millions. And only 10% of black entrepreneurs even run tech companies.

Now, we want to change that. We want more folks to feel good about that, but you get 90% that are not running tech businesses, that are running retail businesses, that are running food businesses, that are running hospitality businesses. And the world is basically saying, “We don’t care about you because you’re not VC ready.” So we just really went where we saw there was a huge opportunity and a huge need and communities that we know that nobody else was paying attention to. And so in some cases, we’re following the numbers. And in other cases, we’re capitalizing on what we call first move advantage because everybody else is ignoring these folks.

Small Business Trends: Why is that still the case? Why is the market still a market? Why are VCs still really just completely ignoring this opportunity?

Melissa Bradley: So I think there’s a few reasons. I think one is that the market is the market, right? I mean, I think that people have to understand the drivers of being a finance person. So I don’t want to just throw out bias and racism because that’s part of it. But the reality is, investment is based on past precedent. And so unfortunately we are perpetuating this historical under investment because nobody has seen a winner yet. And we’re all waiting for a winner. We forget though, you can’t get a winner if you don’t step outside the box. So I think one is the markets are just naturally driving repeatable, scalable behavior that one would argue is not broken. I mean, the markets appear to be working, not for everybody, but they’re working. So there’s really no incentive to break that trajectory.

The second thing is which I hear and I struggle with, but in some cases it could be true, is I don’t know where they are. And so yeah. Not every entrepreneur is hanging out at MIT or Stanford. I’m in DC. There’s tons of entrepreneurs sitting at Harvard University. There’s tons of entrepreneurs at HBCU, but no one is going there to scout them. And I think part of it is they don’t know. And let’s be honest, there is an additional cost, emotional and financial. And we do have to understand that for better or for worse, the margins that are allowed to do any kind of innovation in finance are limited. And so people tend to be relatively risk averse.

And then the final thing I would say is that I don’t think media… I’m so grateful to be here and have seen your work and really appreciate you. And all the folks that you talk about have started doing these panels. I don’t think people even know we exist. I think that there is a few anomalies, right? That make the success stories that back in the day, I’m dating myself. We used to have ebony. We had black enterprise. And you get that one. As long as you could find one a month, you’re good.

But all of the social media that’s happening, I think the successes that we do have get lost in the noise. And so people struggle to say, “There’s one, there’s one, there’s one.” And let me be clear. Pattern recognition sucks, but it is a way to at least create the proxy for people to say, “I can at least think of what.” And I think we’ve got to do something where people can at least think of one, because once you get to one, the beauty of this community of entrepreneurs and particularly entrepreneurs of color is everybody knows each other. It is a highly supportive ecosystem.

So if you can find one and you call them on the phone or you text them, they’re going to give you at least 10 to 20 others that are doing just as good if not better than themselves. So I think those are just a few reasons that we’re finding folks aren’t really focusing in having this conversation.

Small Business Trends: You guys also recently raised a pretty significant amount of money and from a number of different venture firms.

Melissa Bradley: We did.

Small Business Trends: Why don’t you tell us a little bit about that.

Melissa Bradley: Yeah. So, coming from the East coast and not looking at me like my co-founders, venture is not typically my first path of thought around raising money. But when we realized after about a good six months of trying things and piecemealing things together, we realized this really could be a tech company. And it just seemed a natural opportunity to say, “Let’s go raise some venture capital.” And we had the conversations like do you think people are going to give us, the three of us money? Do you think people are going to invest in the idea where we’re actually trying to talk to people like me?

And I have to say, as I’ve told everybody, I was pleasantly surprised. I had been to Silicon Valley before. I had worked out there before. I knew a lot of these firms. And I would say the openness, I think in part, because they knew Dave, our co-founder through both prior investments, but also in a very colleague collegial way that there was an openness to at least listen. No one shut us down and said, “That’s the dumbest thing I ever heard.” And everyone’s biggest question was how are you going to get these businesses to trust you?

And we said, “We’re still working on that. We don’t take that for granted. We’re still working on that.” But it was clear that everybody who came in saw a gap in the small business market, right? Everything is so fragmented, such redundancy that they saw a real opportunity to aggregate, not consolidate. And because we had a partner strategy from the onset, they saw that we were not trying to be Pac-Man and eat up the ecosystem. We’re really trying to firm up and shore up the ecosystem.

So with that, we got some great response. We got some folks who said, “Let me wait and see.” And of course now they’re like, “I wish I had not waited.” But we were thrilled to be able to raise $8.6 million from folks in the Midwest and on the coast who most importantly were willing to support what we’re calling this next wave of entrepreneurs. They had lots of questions, but they believed in us, which was important and that’s all of us equally. They believed in our focus because we were very clear. This is a business that’s going to be open to all, but we’re going to laser in on women entrepreneurs of color. And nobody backed down from that. And in fact many said, “I hope you can pull it off because we’ve seen many iterations before you. And it hasn’t happened.” So we are very fortunate to have some amazing investors behind us.

Small Business Trends: Talk a little bit about the grant programs, but also I guess folks are trying to figure out, well, why does Facebook or Salesforce, why do they need somebody like Ureeka that we’ve never really heard of?

Melissa Bradley: We asked the same thing. Why do WE need Facebook, Salesforce, etc? We actually turn the tables because money is a dime a dozen, right? I mean, I think post George Floyd, everybody… Money is raining out windows. And we wanted to be mindful, right? That if we were going to enter into these partnerships, there were three things that were happening. One that it was legitimate, right? That there was a real honesty and earnestness around helping entrepreneurs of color and not just some quick media blurb to get you out of the public fray. The second thing was is that they weren’t just going to give money. And I know that sounds crazy because everybody says, “What do I need? Money, money, money, money.” But I say the same thing to entrepreneurs that I say to my kids. “What do you need the money for?”

Money is a means to an end. And I will tell you, in my years of doing this work prior to becoming Ureeka, we did a pitch competition. And we had a young lady that won $25,000. And she was over the moon. We followed up with her three months later and I said, “Hey, do you want to come to this program we’re running because you just seem like you might need some assistance.” She said, “Girl, I’m on the next plane because I have yet to cash the check. Because I don’t know what to do with the money. Because my needs far exceed the check size. So I’m just sitting here looking at it.” And then, so that was important that we weren’t just going to be giving money.

And then the third thing is we wanted to again, make sure that we were able to continue the relationship, right? Because again, writing a check is just the beginning, not the end. So, once we realized that all of our partners wanted to do that, what we were able to do is partnering with all of these companies that you mentioned after we did our due diligence and they did theirs and not only deploy the capital, but make sure they had access to free coaching. Make sure they had access to free content and then obviously help them with some of their problems.

Some of the biggest problems we’ve seen in all of this is having offline businesses pivot to online. And I don’t know about you, but I’m barely managing Twitter and Instagram. And oftentimes I need the help of my kids. You’re probably so much better than me. And so we find that there’s a level of expertise that people were going to pay somebody to do that. And I lose my mind when entrepreneurs outsource too much because then their goal is your intellectual property. And so we were able to say, “You got a grant, but you also got some coaching. You also got some one on one assistance.”

So we have companies like Keeping You Sweet, right? That makes what I think to be some of the best gluten-free sweet potato, natural cheesecakes you ever seen, alternatives to sugar, that are now selling in whole foods market. I had a knee replacement. There’s a company run by a black doctor, Kirsten Shepard Ahmed who has this gel I think is magic, but it’s called Pain Stopper. And we helped her get past $100,000 a month by being able to really help with the coaching and the consulting assistance. We’ve seen people’s Facebook followers go up 500% because they were a part of the coaching program with a company called Harvest 9 with the number nine. They got the coaching and then wanted more. They had 100% increase on Instagram.

So, money is a means to an end. And so I think we were able to make that value pitch to the companies and then tell the entrepreneurs that they got more than just money. It really increased our trust, but it also increased our value to the entrepreneurs because let’s be clear, people are writing checks left and right. But if I don’t know where to spend it, I don’t know who to hire. I don’t understand how the algorithms work in IG or Shopify, what good is it? And we find when I mentioned to you earlier that it costs a quarter of a million dollars more for a black entrepreneur to start the same business. About 30% of that is just churning through professional service providers who don’t have our best interest at heart. So we really solved a perpetual need in a time of crisis to help these entrepreneurs survive.

Small Business Trends: You keep talking about raining money. I’m like looking out my window right now and I don’t see money raining … There’s a lot of people that are saying, “I don’t know where to get money.” Are you saying that money is becoming more accessible or available because of what’s happened recently with some of the social unrest?

Melissa Bradley: I would say that more money is becoming available. I think the question is still, it’s raining. Now whether or not we can reach over the balcony and get it before it passes us is a different story. But sure. There’s a behind the scenes Google Doc, right? Going around of all the commitments that everybody’s made since George Floyd’s death unfortunately. I’m giving us till Christmas and people’s guilt and concern may or may not wear off, but there’s a lot of folks who have stepped up, I think some in tremendous earnest. And I think it’s okay to say self-interest because they’re businesses are small businesses and so why not invest in your customers? And then I think there are others who are putting out dare we say, vanity programs and that’s up to them, right?

But I do want to reiterate, there is a opportunity that I’d say most major companies right now are investing in some kind of program and outreach. Many of the first four runners were money. Some of them are now saying, “How do I use my team and my staff. I’m sitting on a wealth of expertise. How do I give back?” We have a lot of companies including Salesforce that gave us employees to be coaches. I mean, imagine like duh, but how amazing that was, right? To have people on the inside, tell us how to make this stuff work for you.

So yeah, I think that there are lots of programs. Now, let me be clear. It’s raining, but there’s still a catch. There’s still caveats. There’s still prerequisites. But I would say there’s been a tremendous spike in individuals and institutions, both philanthropic and not, that are really trying to think about how do I get more money in the hands of black and brown entrepreneurs. We’ve seen PayPal doing it. We’ve seen Netflix doing it. Even companies like a Netflix that you never would have thought about this before. I think people are catching on A, we’re a viable marketplace. We have over a billion dollars purchasing power. But B, again, they’re beginning to really look at the data and say where some of the fastest growing small business is. How do I make sure that I start that relationship with them.

CHECK OUT MORE:

Brent Leary One-on-One Interview Series

This article, “Melissa Bradley of Ureeka: African American Women are Starting Businesses 6 Times More than White Male Peers” was first published on Small Business Trends

https://smallbiztrends.com/

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elanska · 5 years

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5th may battle royale, part 1

so, here’s the obligatory drabble. for you Kyouyaa.

Okay, I’m considered cheating. what’s with this being unfinished and all, but I’m pressed for time and I want to post (at least part of it) on the exact date.

Note: crackfic, per usual. Reborn gives Hibari a good gift, Fate get jealous and try to gift him something as well. crack ensues.

He awake from a very pleasant dream.

Soft, fluffy, and the feeling of wind on his hair and face as he soars over the sky, not the usual jump down or utilizing roll's form to jump up higher platform, but pure flying - feeling the air current lifting you up and up…

He heard a chuckle and snapped his eyes open in an instant.

“feeling better yet?”

It was well known fact that Hibari Kyouya loves namimori and would prefer to stay there. Barring the situation where Vongola Decimo (finally) reasoned that damage caused by his cloud guardian is better than damage caused by their enemies and summon the (much) dreaded man from his humble abode; as well as several pet project (like searching boxes or artifacts that challenge strength), you can expect to find the strongest cloud guardian in Namimori. Most people would be confused of what this small town can offer? Wasn't people usually moved to more metropolitan city for easier, more efficient life? Or perhaps taking the much needed holiday in scenic, touristic destination somewhere? It's not like he's lacking money to move out from such a small, average city that couldn't offer anything.

Still, Hibari, continue to clings to Namimori, barring several erratic interruptions above.

Oh wait, there's actually one scheduled event when he would leave Namimori, in gleeful anticipation even.

It began, perhaps 3-4 years ago - courtesy from, who else? Reborn, of course, who decide it's just apt for the the strongest mafia famiglia to reward their strongest guardian whom a bit forlorn with how far away he is from home on his birthday - with battles - lot, lot of battles. In fact, he throws everybody in Vongola compounds that day to up against Hibari. Anyone that Hibari defeated have to give him one gift. Anybody that Hibari didn't managed to defeat will gain one favor from him.

The first year Reborn implemented his ‘happy birthday you crazy fucker! let me extort you!’ scheme, the winner is Tsuna, who hastily used his boon for quick ‘umm! Please get me a sandwich! ‘

(Tsuna kinda regret that. He actually have more pressing needs like ‘please don't destroy properties too much’ or even ‘I'll deduct that from your salaries!’ but he just spent 8 exhausting hours running and dodging bombs exploding, paralyzing waters, gunshots (yes, varia were there that day too, the problem they were facing that year is kinda big issue that everybody from famiglia need to attend. They were in the phase of cleaning up the mess when Hibari's birthday (or more precisely, Reborn's sadistic plan) falls upon them all)

The second year, Varia knock on the main Vongola HQ compound and demand a rematch. Hibari quickly being summoned from Namimori and gleefully swept the floor (Tsuna secretly move to assist the birthday man because he recognize the danger if Hibari's boon fall upon the wrong hand. Granted, there’s a chance that Xanxus probably just wanted a sandwich too but it's better to be cautious. Unfortunately, his good deed goes unpunished as Hibari turned on him (rather angrily too) for stealing his prey and rise as the victor.

Reborn must revise the rules on third year because some people would just hide from start to finish and hoping to get the prize (“only one person can officially get the prize (tsuna breathes in relief); Hibari doesn't need to personally beat you. No, it's not cheating, Xanxus, that's to avoid fellow participants beating up each other and then demanding a boon because they’re not *directly* defeated. Yes, that's allowed, Hibari, if you didn't want deprived of your prey *coughcough* opponents, then I suggest you move quicker. Also lastly, anybody that as much as touch the espresso machine will be dead. Ok, begin.“

What originally began as small chaotic event to release tension (by reborn standard) quickly evolve to something else after their alliance gotten heard of it and interested to participate. Then, other famiglias. Tsuna wanted to reject but Reborn scoffs at him, “they want to give your guardian well wishes and you want to reject them? Absolutely not”

Tsuna want to cry. Of course there's several people who might be have sincere wish to give his guardian a battle for fun, but they're in miniscule minority. 1 in 15, he wagered from last year statistics, and with 273 participants list, that didn't count much.

“what if he lose?” he retort at reborn who just sipping his coffee calmly

“Pathetic. You have to trust your guardian more”

And that would be heartwarming (coming from Reborn), but Tsuna makes a mistake by glancing on his laptop and see that Reborn apparently running a bet within his arcobaleno friends.

Tsuna heaved a sigh. He had mastered the ‘oops didn’t meant to blast you with my x-burner, sorry’ nonchalance to help his guardian and running away from the ungrateful Hibari's ‘you will steal my prey so I'll deal with you first’ hot pursuit. However, there's a spike of participant this year. 568! Well, with box weapon usage, it's guaranteed that at least a third of them will wiped out in first hour or so, but if he remember how close Roll - in last year - to entrap him into reverse needle sphere…. Tsuna shudders, maybe if he can apply to Hibari-san good side and have him agree to cooperate.. He can feel his heart sunk as he knocked the door. “Hibari-san? I know you probably still tired from the travel, but can we talk for tomorrow plan? “

“Hi.. bari? Hibarii!”

££

Kusakabe chuckled to see Hibird fluttering with his eyes closed, seemingly still dreaming. It's rather unfortunate that the little guy caught a fever so close to chairman's birthday and he can tell that Kyou-san hesitant to leave him recuperating in namimori, but what can they do? The little guy need rest and the…. excitement on Vongola's mansion is exactly the reverse. So in the end, Kusakabe volunteers to keeping watch over him and stay in namimori. After all, both of them wouldn't want to refrain their boss from his most anticipated (battle) day. Hibird even try to croak namimori themes at the farewell to wish him luck.

"Kyou-san will get back in 1-2 days. Just use this time as your well-earn holiday." he patted the little bird and watch dumbstruck as the bird dodge him in a flash and peck his finger ferociously.

“......what the.....??”

"..Tetsu? What's the meaning of this?"

££

In italy, Tsuna has been pacing around the room endlessly. This seems unreal. I meant time travel? Time-traversing ghost? Alien race? All up his game, but switching bodies of a man and a bird? That sounds crazy.

……. Okay, probably not as crazy as the others but this is a first! Turning around, he implored panickingly, "what should we do, reborn?!"

Reborn, for his credit, still keep his calm demeanor. "stop flailing, dame-tsuna, it's unbecoming for a boss."

"there'll be 568 people want to try their luck battling Hibari-san tomorrow! And he… Wait a minute, what if I cancel the event and said he's sick? Look! He's kind of looking sick right now right?" - indeed, Hibari-san looks feverish, perhaps that's why he's behaving oddly? But Tsuna's own intuition tell him this is not the case. Anybody that ever meet Hibari-san even once could tell that the person who currently perched in windowsill is not him. At least, not on the inside.

"you want to tell 568 mafiosi that your strongest guardian is in vulnerable condition right now?" Reborn disdained, "you aware of their intention coming here is to get a chance to get you or your other guardian right?"

Were they in less dismal situation, Tsuna would grab that statement as triumph ('well wishes, my ass!') but he's not in celebratory mood. And then his telephone ring.

"sawada-san, we have…. a bit of situation here."

"Kusakabe!"

"Sawada."

"......" it's really weird to hear the usual chipper tone Hibird carrying…. to became somber like that. But in that instant, a shadow pounced on Tsuna, making him almost dropped his phone in shock.

"hibari! hibari!"

Okay, it's also weird to hear Hibari-san's calm and collected tone to become…… Shrill? Shit! He can't even find the word to describe this anomaly!

On the other side of the phone, Hibird's tone is soothingly melodious, "don't worry little one, I'm coming there." and then "move quickly Tetsu."

"sorry, Sawada-san, we're currently boarding. We'll be there soon." and then the phone disconnected.

Tsuna watch his phone incredulously, Hibird-in-Hibari-san's body, a bit forlornly, Reborn is smirking, "I told you to not panicking."

"I DON'T RECALL YOU SAYING THAT!!"

#khr #hibari's wish if I can replace you being sick Hibird #we appreciate his parently concern and decide to granted that wish #with a twist #and now Tsuna had to deal with it #it's two bird with one stone situation #okay probably not a good analogy but

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douchebagbrainwaves · 3 years

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THEIR HOUSES ARE IN DIFFERENT NEIGHBORHOODS, OR IF IN THE SAME WAY I WRITE SOFTWARE: I SIT DOWN AND BLOW OUT A LAME VERSION 1 AS FAST AS I CAN TYPE, THEN SPEND SEVERAL WEEKS REWRITING IT

If I had a choice of living in a country with a strong middle class it was easy for industrial techniques to take root. Standardized tests count for nothing, and grades for little. Which means it's doubly important to hire the best people. We'd clean up our offices, wear better clothes, try to arrange that a lot of people make the same mistake I did. In fact, programming didn't get done by well-dressed people at clean desks during office hours. That doesn't sound right. But if I have to choose between ignoring him and ignoring an exponential curve that has been operating for thousands of years, I'll bet on the curve. If all you have is statistics, it seems like that's what you need to fix.

This is one way I know the rich aren't all getting richer simply from some new system for transferring wealth to them from everyone else. Is life actually short, or are we really saying? And in particular, the rich led a different kind of life from ordinary people. It all evened out in the end, and now he's a professor at MIT. But if opinion is divided in such discussions, the side that knows it would lose in a vote will tend to be the same. I think angels and their lawyers organized rounds this way in unthinking imitation of VC series A rounds. And yet the trend in nearly everything written about the subject is to do the other. As companies grow they invariably get more such checks, either in response to political pressures. Northern Italy in 1100, off still feudal. Off, quiet. But that's like using a screwdriver to open bottles; what one really wants is a bottle opener.

There's no need for a Microsoft of France or Google of Germany. Now, most people who are neither rich nor poor, but originally they were a distinct group. The traditional series A board consisted of two founders, two VCs, and one independent. Unfortunately the sort of deadlock that happens when investors all wait to see who else is investing? Is the cost increasing or decreasing? Most large organizations and many small ones are steeped in it. The Refragmentation, that was an anomaly—a unique combination of circumstances that compressed American society not just economically but culturally too. For example, let's attack poverty, and if you have a PhD at the end. In the real world, programs are bigger, tend to involve existing code, for example, or a tool for 3D animation. At most colleges, admissions officers decide who gets in. If life is short, as everyone knows.

Or the company that would be the best source of advice, because I was a kid I used to wonder about this. If you want to get rich. She assumed the problem was with her. And yet the bullshit you choose may be harder to eliminate than the bullshit that's forced on you by circumstances. Especially since it would only mean you eliminated startups in your own country. I'm not saying that if you let Henry Ford get rich, he'll hire you as a waiter at his next party. Which means if you're making something you might otherwise have charged $5000 for, you have to have one or the other in your society not so much because in spending their money they create jobs, but because of what they have to do to get rich is to start startups, they'll start startups. And when you propagate that constraint, the result always seems to be the case in most types of work. This is what real productivity looks like. But babysitting this process was so expensive for software vendors that it didn't make sense to charge less than $50,000 instead. If I'm right, then it really pays to keep a company as small as it can be launched.

If startups end up being like the movie business. Whatever the upper limit is, we are clearly not meant to work in a big company. That's when they have the really big ideas. An obstacle downstream propagates upstream. England in 1800, on. Particularly lions. Likewise, if your professors try to make you lift weights with your brain.

Modern literature is important, but the title of one: James Salter's Burning the Days. Raising an old-fashioned fixed-size equity round with a lead makes sense, because there is usually just one big investor, who is unequivocally the lead. And while it's impossible to say what is a lot or a little of a continuous quantity like time, 8 is not a lot of money on a watch you could get better performance. Foreword to Jessica Livingston's Founders at Work. Sometimes pretty overtly. I wanted to stop getting spam. That was the point of creating it. And while it would probably be a good thing for the world we now live in.

So they give you very precise numbers about variation in wealth? They'd have sacrificed hundreds of thousands of dollars, perhaps millions, just to be able to recognize real productivity when they see it. I've noticed a definite difference between programmers working on their own startups and those working for large organizations, and the noise starts again. When I told the fearsome Professor Conway that I was interested in AI a hot topic then, he told me I should major in math. If there is enough demand for something, technology will make it cheap enough to sell to is not that you'll make them unproductive, but that you have to put up with some inconvenience to do it mainly to help the poor, not to hurt the rich. Another way to figure out what the problem is usually artificial and predetermined. Unfair, they cry, when one sibling gets more than another. The amount of time you have. The only thing technology can't cheapen is brand.

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Eastern Edge: Goalie Targets, Trends, and Sells

Andrei Vasilevskiy. Kim Klement / USA Today Sports Images

The injuries are starting to pile up in the East. Matthews is still out, Bergeron is in an “a lot of pain” and on the shelf, Kuznetsov missed a game, Panarin, Vaseilevskiy, and Crosby is out. Judging by the horrific scenes in Florida last night Trocheck will also be headed to the shelf – terrible to see. It will be interesting to see how long Bergeron is out for and how his absence changes the outlook for Pastrnak and Marchand. If history repeats itself Marchy should be just fine.

Many goalies in the East are still maddening for many owners. There really isn’t much to say other than that you have to recalibrate your idea of what an elite goalie is this season. Dobber summed it up perfectly in Monday’s Ramblings.

Save percentage for goalies from all three shot difficulties can be an excellent way of finding buy low windows on goalies, avoiding paying too much for overperforming goalies, and trying to keep calm as you take your turn in the goalie carousel.

Specifically, I want to look at how goalies in the East are performing in low, medium, and high danger areas. Looking at their total save percentage and any underlying anomalies in their shorthanded save percentage is effective for teasing out what the future may hold for goalies this season.

To calibrate the thought process here are some interesting stats from 2017-2018 for goalies that were more or less usable (purposefully ambiguous) in fantasy leagues last year:

The average of these goalies high danger save percentages was as follows:

Even – .795

Shorthanded – .793

There were two goalies with a shorthanded save percentage greater than .850 in high danger areas in the East last year

There were six goalies with .850 in high danger save areas in the East last year

At even strength the average save percentage last year was around .918

These were the mean save percentages by area and situation this season:

Situation

LDSv%

MDSv%

HDSv%

.945

.915

.793

Even

.975

.912

.795

Using this we can help plot where each goalie finds themselves thus far in the East. Take a second to look over the below graphs and see where your goalies sit through week seven of the fantasy season (sorry west owners). The plots can be seen in more detail here and here.

In general, the future movement of these goalies should follow the general direction towards the mean. The dotted red line is the average HD while at 5v5 save percentage, and the blue line is the average 5v5 save percentage. In the bottom left quadrant, the three goalies that could see their fates change are Carey Price, Matt Murray, and dare I say Scott Darling. The most interesting name on this plot is Andrei Vaseilevskiy he’s sitting with a freakishly low HD save percentage but actually outperforming the mean save percentage of his peers. Given the save percentage goalies are showing this year this is very impressive and a great opportunity to capitalize on an owner that is willing to move Vasi for some immediate help while he is on the shelf.

Meanwhile, the fates of Braden Holtby, Jaroslav Halak, Frederik Andersen, and Sergei Bobrovsky seem to indicate that they will begin experiencing the dreaded reversion back to the mean. For goalies that are already not performing well like Holtby, this is very concerning, indicating that it might be time to sell while you’re still able to get 90 cents on the dollar.

I was down on Henrik Lundqvist coming into this year, so far Hank has quietly put together a very steady hand for fantasy owners with a .919 save percentage overall. With 52% of his starts being Quality Starts he really is doing an admirable job. It should be exciting for owners to see that his save percentage is coming even though he is below average in the HD areas. Lundqvist could be the perfect trade target for Holtby and Rask owners.

So how was Vasilevskiy able to sustain that high save percentage in the face of terrible 5v5 HD SV%? He’s been very efficient in the HD save department while shorthanded. This has helped prop up his SV% overall while he hopefully can recover at 5v5. All in all, it looks like Vasilevskiy is set to join the group of truly elite goaltenders for those who were still waiting to see him perform over the course of one whole season.

Henrik Lundqvist is outperforming his peers but is being beat from the other areas of the ice which is depressing his overall SH SV%, thankfully a reversion to the mean in this area should allow Lundqvist to sustain the quality of work that he has performed thus far.

Scott Darling is the evil statistical outlier in every data set. Somehow he’s killing it in HD SV% while shorthanded, not sure how that’s possible considering how terrible he’s been at even strength. Don’t worry I took the Darling plunge again this year so I’m riding the Carolina wave like many of you!

Another interesting name here is Carey Price, he’s actually not been terrible while shorthanded and is fairly close to the mean in both categories. To get back into elite territory he’ll need to raise his even strength save percentage, something that I wouldn’t bet against. This would truly be a leap of faith but the plots seem to indicate that Carey should find some success soon.

I’d love to bet on Craig Anderson but I can’t overcome the eye test of these Senators. Anderson has been reliable in years past even when he has been getting absolutely shelled. The shorthanded save percentage plot indicates Anderson might be able to gain an edge in his overall save percentage. Then again he has to run uphill against the Ottawa PK unit.

While note plotted, I thought it was worth noting that Sergei Bobrovsky has been very unlucky against low danger opportunities on the PK. It’s tough to explain why that might be? Regardless it seems that Bob probably should have a couple back this year, which certainly could raise his .918 save percentage into the elite company.

See you next week.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/eastern-edge/eastern-edge-goalie-targets-trends-and-sells/

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mammothstrengthx · 6 years

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Those 3 Little Words..Performance Enhancing…

The fact 101% of the people reading that title filled in the black with DRUGS is very telling. It just goes to show that PED use is prevalent. You would think that it would mostly be restricted to the Professional ranks, where any competitive advantage would lead to a bigger pay day. However, this is not the case. Let’s face it, we live in a society where alcohol, tobacco and illegal narcotics are used on a daily basis. With the exception of marijuana (sorry Republicans), none of them have any particular health benefits other than numbing the senses to escape the world around you.

PED’s on the other hand increase your ability to do the things you want to be good at. So why would it come as a surprise that the number of people that actually use them is several orders of magnitude more than the Average Joe might imagine? Unfortunately the number of PED users is not the only thing that Mr. Average Joe is ignorant of. Human beings are pattern seeking mammals, and are prone to labeling something, throwing it in a box and never thinking about it again. That tendency is perpetuated by the information age that we currently live in. If something wants to get our attention it better be something we can digest in 140 characters or less, be related to an adorable kitten, or be in some state of undress. As a result, despite walking around with the culmination of human intelligence in our smart phone, the majority of people seem to choose speed and ignorance over careful study and actual KNOWLEDGE.

How does that apply to performance enhancing drugs? Well you get people that think anabolic steroids are a magical elixir brewed by the Devil himself to destroy the integrity of sports and kill off every first born male child. Of course these same people, with no personal experience whatsoever are fairly certain if they had just “cheated” and used steroids they would have made it to Pros themselves. Unfortunately, once that delusional belief finally takes hold it’s not long before they are out in a field recording videos of their passing skilz, and claiming they could throw a football over a mountain. I mean if you can convince yourself that one demonstrably false idea is true, then the floodgates open and you can believe all kinds of batshit insane things that make you feel better.

“How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?... Yeah... Coach woulda put me in fourth quarter, we would've been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.” –Uncle Rico”

Here in my home town of reality it is fairly easy to see that this just isn’t so. However, it is my personal belief that the bitterness caused by the aforementioned delusions are part of the vilification of steroid use by athletes. That along with a healthy dose of propaganda from the medical community, and you have a general public that think that people are droppin dead from anabolic steroid use every day. All I can say to that is “Show Me the Bodies…”

When you actually ask the anti-steroid crowd to produce evidence of all these deaths they don’t really have much to offer. It is like any other “faith based belief”, when you convince yourself of something with little to no evidence then you are admitting that evidence doesn't matter to you. And whenever an athlete dies with steroids in his system (or is known to have used them at any point) then that is always one if not the top reason for their death as far as the media is concerned. I honestly believe that if Mark McGwire died tomorrow of a snake bite, somehow his steroid use which obviously compromised his immune system would be responsible. The rules of modern “journalism”…Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.

This Graph shows the mortality rates of people who use tobacco and alcohol compared to anabolic steroids. It should be noted that 45 million people use tobacco and nearly 100 million people use alcohol. There isn’t any such quantitative data for anabolic steroid users (Center for Disease Control 2011). [Read more]

None of this is to suggest that anabolic steroids are necessarily “safe”. If you have any kind of pre-existing condition then a substance that cause growth can exacerbate the situation. As with anything else in life the safety of something is directly related to the person using it. Guns are perfectly safe, in the hands of someone trained in gun safety. Most people would consider hammers even safer, and yet hammers are responsible for hundreds of deaths each year.

Anyone that has read anything I write knows what a big fan of IRONY I am. And the discussion about PED’s is rife with it. I have to admit that I sometimes am bored enough to listen to sports talk radio. And the local channel here is always getting into the anti-PED discussion. Then when they go to commercial you find out that one of their sponsors is a local HRT Clinic. In case you didn't know, hormone replacement therapy is the legal way to use anabolic steroids and growth hormone. All you have to do is convince a Doc that you have lost a little pep in your step, give them your insurance information, pay your deductible and BAM…suddenly PED’s are ok. Apparently cheating death and the aging process is socially acceptable. What is also funny is it is socially acceptable for doctors and lawyers to abuse caffeine and other stimulants to get through school and internship. But a professional athlete that chooses to use PED’s to increase his job performance is EVIL? Speaking of performance enhancement, how many guys die from Viagra use every year?

Now before you make the mistake of thinking that I am advocating cheating, please know that I AM NOT! When you compete in a sport that says “doing this is against the rules”, and you do it anyway then you are by definition a cheater. I am simply questioning the rules, and attempting to point out the inconsistency of the general public’s moral judgment.

POP QUIZ HOT SHOT!!

Why are performance ENHANCING drugs illegal, while performance debilitating drugs such as alcohol and tobacco are legal?!

A) Politics

B) Ignorance

C) Misinformation/Propaganda

D) The Myth of The Level Playing Field

E) All of the above

If you answered anything other than E) All of the Above, I’m sorry but we have some wonderful parting gifts for you. Obviously politics play a huge role in this equation. Alcohol and tobacco companies have HUGE lobbying budgets, and are huge profit generating industries. Unfortunately, there is no corporation that would stand to benefit if PED’s were legalized. And make no mistake about it money makes the world go around.

Of course ignorance and misinformation play its part in this as well. The general public, mostly due to apathy, is at the mercy of CNN and FOX for fair and balanced reporting on issues. Again as I said before, if you aren't really concerned with actual facts and evidence, then you will believe whatever story someone tells you. Truthfully PED’s just seem to be one of those anomalies that gets lumped into the “Drugs are bad mmmmmkay” mentality of Joe Six Pack.

As much as all of the other reason have something to do with PED’s being illegal; I would argue that the myth of the Level Playing field is the most influential. For some reason, especially in the United States people think that sports are somehow sacred, and that the records involved in these sports are the Holiest of Holies.

In some strange way I suppose it makes sense. If sports fans didn't have statistics and records to compare to other fans there would be no more sports hate and pissing contests. And then *gasp* people would have to accept that sports are just ENTERTAINMENT just like movies and music. As an aside, think of how ridiculous it would be if people got into drunken fist fights at movie theaters over who’s favorite actor was better. See what happens when things are put into context.

The truth is that people have been using drugs of all kinds for the entirety of human civilization. It is only recently that we have deemed some of those drugs illegal. The “War on Drugs” has been an epic failure, and has not served to curb people’s use of drugs. It has only served to turn law abiding citizens into criminals. The same can be said for PED’s. Athletes are competitive by nature, and to get to the very elite level you are always looking for a way to make yourself better. The legality of PED’s have turned World Record performances into *Asterisks, and left a black mark on the athletes name. Guess what, Mark McGwire's homeruns STILL entertained you, and Lance Armstrong STILL raised HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS! So is the problem the athletes, or the laws?

Many fans are opposed to athletes using PED’s, but they also want to see records being broken and they celebrate bigger, stronger, faster without the slightest bit of acknowledgement to the irony of the situation. Don’t for a second believe that fans give a shit about the players. They want to be entertained, and when the players get a little long in the tooth, they will want them put out to pasture. So why wouldn’t a professional athlete dabble in PED’s to extend his professional career a year or two?! How many of those same fans wouldn’t do the EXACT SAME THING if they had a chance to earn a couple Million Dollars?!

Another thing you will hear is the claim that they are worried about the children, “what about the children” they cry. By that same logic, shouldn’t they be trying to get drugs and alcohol out of the music industry? Wouldn’t society be so much better for our children, and for our future if everyone was a teetotaler with regards to all drugs?! And since it is obvious that you don't care about Pro Athletes once they get past their prime entertainment years, why exactly should the athletes care about being role models to YOUR CHILDREN?!

Here’s the thing, and you may not want to hear it, but if you honestly think that would be a good thing then be careful what you wish for. You would have to put an *Asterisk next to the majority of the past 100 years. There would be no more records broken in your lifetime, and the music industry would suck worse than it already does. Again I am not sayin that athletes should cheat, they should not. I am suggesting it is hypocrisy of the highest order to make PED's illegal (unless they are part of HRT..thus proving their medical benefit) while alcohol and tobacco are legal.

My point is NOT to advocate PED use. My point is to advocate education. If you think PED's (or any drug for that matter) should be illegal then you should have solid reasoning behind it. If your only reason is FEAR of what might happen if they were legal, then really is that even an argument?! If you are afraid of "what might happen", then shouldn't you be outraged at what IS happening with regards to alcohol and tobacco. You seriously are stepping over the bodies of hundreds of thousands of people that die each year from alcohol and tobacco abuse to try to find one or two people that might possibly have died from steroid use. This kind of inconsistent moral outrage, and the hypocrisy is staggering to try to comprehend. I will close with the my question from earlier, and I welcome all different points of view…

Why are performance ENHANCING drugs illegal, while performance debilitating drugs such as alcohol and tobacco are legal?!

Read additional information on: http://mammothstrength.com

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stoodlemayer · 7 years

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Predicting "The Last Jedi"

The trailer for The Last Jedi is out! Tickets are on sale! I've unsubbed from r/StarWars because I'm on spoiler alert! That means it's time to start guessing how much The Last Jedi is going to make at the box office!

Back when The Force Awakens came out, we all knew it was going to be big, but we were struggling with how to define it. When you're working on box office projections, you look at the soon-to-be-released film, compile a list of similar films to compare it to, and then use the box office performances of those films to come up with a guess of how the film in question will perform. For example, I would bet that 99% of people coming up with box office projections for Blade Runner 2049, a sequel to an 80s sci-fi thriller, compared it to Mad Max: Fury Road, a sequel to an 80s spec-fi action film.

There was nothing for The Force Awakens.

There was some who immediately wanted to compare it to Avatar. It too was a major blockbuster that had a December release, so surely The Force Awakens would perform similarly. A smaller opening weekend compared to your summer blockbuster—Avatar only made $87 million opening weekend—but it'll make up for that with long legs. But that comparison didn't feel right. Compared to The Force Awakens, Avatar had been a quiet release. Star Wars hype was everywhere leading up to December. With every trailer, the fanbase would get more excited—from what we could tell, every problem and quibble we had about the prequels was being addressed. Industry tracking about audience awareness indicated that 100% of Americans knew that a new Star Wars film was coming out. You would've had to live in the mountains with no internet or human contact for at least five years to not know that a new Star Warts film was coming out. The hype was real.

Yet people still persisted in comparing The Force Awakens to other December releases. No December release had an opening weekend over $100 million, they'd say. Maybe Star Wars can, but there's no way in hell it'll cross $200 million. The most it could do was $175 million, and that's if the pun-intended stars aligned. r/boxoffice was convinced that anyone who thought it could hit $200 million on it's opening weekend was a fanboy, and had no idea what they were talking about. It's not that these people were necessarily wrong or foolish. They were trying to apply conventional wisdom to a film that increasingly looked like it would have an unconventional performance. I bucked the conventional wisdom. and sometime in November I had settled around a $215 million opening weekend. But as the opening day approached, I had good reason to doubt my numbers. A contact in-the-know offered insight into Disney's internal numbers: The Force Awakens had already sold $175 million in tickets for opening weekend, and we were still a week-and-a-half from release. After the initial sale of tickets in October, ticket sales had seemingly flatlined, but as we approached opening day, people were buying tickets almost as fast as theaters were putting them on sale. To this day I'm surprised this info never leaked—there's a reason why I noted that my $215 million estimate was conservative.

A few weeks before The Force Awakens opened, I was talking with the theater's then programmer and its former programmer—these were the guys who scheduled the showtimes and did the internal box office projections for our location1—and one posited the theory that we needed use a "historical comp" for The Force Awakens. Conventional box office prediction looks at recent releases; anything older than three to four years is out of date. Even comparing The Force Awakens to Avatar was pushing it, and the only reason Avatar was even brought up was that people were struggling to come up with recent films that felt like an accurate comparison. During our conversation, we concluded that the only film that had the same cultural awareness and hype was The Phantom Menace.

The only thing you can use to predict Star Wars is Star Wars.

When Rogue One was getting closer to release, I decided to test this theory. Management at the theater was prepping for Rogue One to be only slightly smaller The Force Awakens. I argued that The Force Awakens was a statistical outlier. Since we couldn't find good comparisons for The Force Awakens, we then shouldn't use it to make predictions. It was its own beast, and to even think that anything would come close again in the near future was foolish. I decided that the best comparison film was, of all things, Revenge of the Sith. I felt that Revenge of the Sith had two things going for it. 1) It had been received warmly by the fanbase. 2) The latter two prequel films had little appeal in the general audience. Rogue One's marketing, and Disney's own expectations, made me think that they were expecting this film to appeal mainly to the fans, and not so strongly with the general audience. And since the fans had been energized by The Force Awakens, Rogue One would be greeted by an appreciative audience.

BoxOfficeMojo has a handy little feature that lets you adjust a film's box office gross as if it had been released a different year. The tool is by no means scientific, but it's good enough for what I needed. I adjusted Revenge of the Sith to get a 2016 estimate and got this: Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith - $380,270,577 Actual / $513,157,600 Adjusted to 2016. Rogue One would go on to gross $532,177,324, a variance of $19,019,724, or 3.574%. So, while not perfect, it's pretty damn good.

At the time, I hadn't thought to try and use Revenge of the Sith to estimate an opening weekend gross for Rogue One. How audiences see movies has changed since 2005—over time, opening weekends have increasingly represented larger and larger chunks of the total gross. So, instead of looking at Revenge of the Sith's opening weekend numbers, a better idea would be to apply a multiplier to the anticipated total gross. If you've never followed box office results before, a multiplier is basically another way of saying how much of the film's total was made on opening weekend. For example, a multiplier of 2 would mean that a film's total gross will be double what it made opening weekend. A multiplier of 3 would mean its total gross would be three times the opening weekend numbers. In short, a higher multiplier is better. The average 'well-performing' blockbuster typically has a multiplier in the 3.0-3.5 range. So, if we take the adjusted Revenge of the Sith gross, and divide it by your average multiplier, 3.3, you would get an approximate opening weekend total of $155,502,300. Rogue One made $155,081,681. So while the math is by no means perfect, it can at least get us in the ballpark.

So now, for The Last Jedi, the trick is figuring out what exactly we should use as a comparison. So let's look at all the Star Wars films, in release order and with adjusted grosses:

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $936,662,225 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $532,177,324 Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith - $380,270,577 Actual / $513,157,600 Adjusted to 2016 Star Wars: Attack of the Clones - $302,191,252 Actual / $449,906,100 Adjusted to 2016 Star Wars: The Phantom Menace - $431,088,295 Actual / $733,743,200 Adjusted to 2016 Star Wars: Return of the Jedi - $252,583,617 Actual / $700,506,300 Adjusted to 2016 Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back - $209,398,025 Actual / $682,158,400 Adjusted to 2016 Star Wars: A New Hope - $307,263,857 Actual / 1,234,649,200 Adjusted to 2016

Here's that info as a handy dandy chart:

"Star Wars" Box Office Grosses (Adjusted)

While we might be quick to jump on the first obvious trend—that the second film each trilogy sees a considerable drop—I think using that to deduce potential box office numbers for The Last Jedi is a trap. The drop from A New Hope to The Empire Strikes Back is a whopping 44.75%, and Attack of the Clones sees an equally stunning 38.78% drop from The Phantom Menace. If The Last Jedi were to see a similar drop from The Force Awakens, the box office gross would only be $545 million. There are easy explanations for the earlier drops. Not only did The Empire Strikes Back receive a mediocre response upon its release, A New Hope was such a massive hit, anything following was going to see a considerable drop. And Attack of the Clones was not only poorly received, but many in the fanbase felt like they’d been burnt by The Phantom Menace. However, a $545 million gross would align this film with the performances of Revenge of the Sith and Rogue One. If this ends up being the final result, I see two possible reasons: Critics and the fans find The Last Jedi to be lacking, or the potential gross of the average Star Wars film is around $550 million. Either way, a result like this would be troubling for Disney and Lucasfilm.

However, I think we can take a more optimistic appraisal. First, both The Force Awakens and Rogue One were well received by fans and critics alike, so there's definitely more goodwill going into The Last Jedi. Secondly, Deadline already has tracking indicating that presale tickets are outperforming Rogue One, and are "just under" The Force Awakens. Finally, I think we should look more closely at the box office performances of The Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi, and The Phantom Menace. Why these three films instead of any of the others is simple. Both A New Hope and The Force Awakens are such extreme examples, that it's best to consider them to be statistical anomalies—including them would only skew the results. Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith had been released to a leery fanbase and disinterested public after The Phantom Menace. While there is definitely an instinct to lump in The Phantom Menace with the other prequels, from a box office perspective, the film was largely unaffected by the scorn it developed among the fanbase. And Rogue One was intended to be a "smaller" release compared to the "Saga" films. That leaves The Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi, and The Phantom Menace. If these three films are indicative of the average performance of a Star Wars saga film, than the average potential domestic gross is around $705 million.

But how about the opening weekend? The Force Awakens had a multiplier of 3.78 and Rogue One had a multiplier of 3.43. I would hazard a guess that The Last Jedi will perform closer to Rogue One than it will to The Force Awakens—it was the sequel many had been waiting over 30 years for, it was destined to over-perform. So let’s guess that a typical Star Wars film performs with a 3.4 multiplier. So, a $705 million gross with a 3.4 multiplier gets us an opening weekend number of $207 million.

The method used to get these numbers is by no means scientific, but this gives us decent guidance for The Last Jedi, and possibly for future Star Wars releases.

#Box Office #Star Wars #Star Wars: The Last Jedi #The Last Jedi

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tellmeyourstory-art-blog · 7 years

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Good enough?

When am I good enough?

Maybe it’s the stained pizza grease wife beater with the lottery ticket in hand, or the slicked back hair and cheesy sly grin of a used car salesman, or 70-year-old Marge at the Casino in a diaper. We pity them. Those who have dreams in finally making ‘the big one’

But, be you a CEO or, a ‘misguided’ millennial, or the happy husband with kids. We are all pizza stains, lottery tickets, and soiled casino diapers. We are all people setting our sights on goals for happiness that don’t exist.

We naturally feel sorry for people who put all their hopes into dreams with slender chances of results, we pity them for taking aim at an impossible target. Like setting our sights on winning the lottery.

Someone may spend years of their life chasing Fame, Beauty, and Expensive cars or winning the Pokies. All of which are statistical near miracles.

But in our own very relative human ways we aim for near impossible targets even when we think we are being sober and level headed. Ironically doing the same to ourselves.

The statistical miracles we hope for in an ideal life are in relations to hopes in Happiness, Love, and Work

The ideally successful life would be that we pick the right area of work, swerve neatly into new fields and get public recognition, money, and honor for our efforts. We would work somewhere fun and creative and inline with our talents.

We hope for similar satisfactions in our love life, that we meet one special kind of devoted person who understands us completely, settle down, have 2.3 children and the domesticity of it never grinds us down because ultimately we are happy. Until we grow to the ripe age of 90. Finally feeling accomplished & dignified, admired by our descendants passing on our advice and wise generous lessons.

We might have some close to or slightly modified version of this ideal life. But the fact is we don't quite grasp how utterly impossible it is, how rare and strange 90 earth years are without major disaster in all areas not just in Love and Work are.

So what’s good enough? And how do you become satisfied with it? How can you tell whether something you’ve done is good enough? Or just made it good enough for you? And can you ever be truly happy with ‘good enough’ when our deepest values demand us to be perfect and experience perfection to find happiness when we all know it can’t be reached? Do we learn to be satisfied with it? Hold hands with complacency while slowly destroying ourselves mentally with the monster that is the question; what if?

What if I had followed my dreams? What if I had kissed them? What if I didn’t get married? What if I had saved enough money?

Or in the pursuit towards perfection, do we destroy ourselves taking risks and hoping one day to finally find what being happy and feeling satisfied is?

Some put their hopes in others, look for it in the stars and pray for the will of the Gods, or buy lottery tickets, all which have the same statistical outcome of actually living an ‘ideal life’

Most of us give up in a search for happiness and fill our emptiness with half empty bottle of Vodka, something to smoke, Orgasms and a Nihilist look on life.

It was that way for my Mom. As for me the pursuit for ‘good enough’ started with her too.

My Dad, best known for bringing Frank Sinatra back to Australia, was acquitted of 32 tax and fraud charges relating to the Importing of luxury yachts, had 3 wives, 7 children, and lead the snootiest high-class developer group ‘The white shoe brigade’ even though he was a loud mouth, fat Australian who was once forced to apologise to the Japanese consulate for throwing several square watermelons off the roof of the Sheraton. He didn’t care. The man petitioned the government and changed legislations and laws to build his boat/golf luxury resort on what was deemed a ‘dump’ and unbuildable Marshland.

And even when everyone said it was impossible, he did it.

Undeniable I have taken the dumping ground of my life and attempted to build my dreams on top of it. In fact, we all have our own impossible marshland and 5-star Resort being built on top of it. This is what made my Dad such an obnoxious yet irresistibly relatable human being. We all are just trying to reach for something we can't have.

My mom was his 3rd wife. She was your typical Californian Blonde and working as an American sports physiologist. He was 20+ years her senior. And of course, the papers and my father's ex-wife had no problem telling you that she was ‘the other woman’ or a mistress. My half-sister once confirmed how she believed my mom was a home wrecker because “how could leggy blonde love such a fat oath if it wasn’t for his money?”

But I knew that wasn’t the whole truth

As curious young children do. While my mother was busy drinking red wine I read her diary. One she had kept during college, as a cheerleader, writing of losing her first love in a motorcycle accident, that her father was an abusive alcoholic and foremost, the story of meeting her husband who she thought was the love of her life.

“I hated him, he was loud, fat and annoying” was the first sentence. I guess it always stuck with me because, in the dusty photos in the garage and the yellowing newspaper clippings, they both seemed so happy. As a child you believe your parents fell in love at first sight, you don’t think of the possibility of actually hating or despising the person you’d marry.

They had met at a Health Resort where she worked, he was visiting for investment opportunities, but instead of showing up to her personal training appointments, he was doing what a fat lazy rich man does. drink, smoke and make bets on whether he could win her “heart” for $1000 at the bar.

She recalled how he asked her to meet him at his hotel room and how ready she was to shout at and demean him, but instead of a fighting, they got along and talked all night.

“I knew we were supposed to be together” was the end of the diary entry.

I guess he did win the bet

Come 1990 the married in a lackluster courthouse wedding in secret, and I was born In March 1992 with my twin sister. Soon after, we moved to Vancouver and despite promises to return and repay the $25 million debt he owed, the bastard died.

It’s not surprising a fat man would die of a heart attack in his sleep. But it wasn’t just a death of my father, but the death of ‘good enough’ in my mom's life, and my own.

I had been ignorant until I was 16 when again, searching through Newspaper articles in self-discovery I found one that had been hidden from me, my mom had been investigated for his death because she hadn’t reported the body for 24-48hrs. I guess that is suspicious, but to me, I only grow up knowing how devastated she was as this would later lead to a 17year prolonged suicide from widowhood and never fulfilling ‘good enough’

The devastation of her dreams of having a beautiful wedding, the picket fence and house with blue shutters, a lemon tree, and a 2.3 children family.

I could only imagine how devastating it must be for a widow to be suspected of murder with two babies, and 25million dollar debt owed. She never truly healed which lead to her addiction.

as I pushed through the dusty photos in the garage, of happy family smiling, and the only photos of my dad, my mom, and my sister, I had no idea how bad things actually had fallen out of control since my Dad's death

How these events set into motion how I would spend the first 25 years of my life fighting to be good enough.

----------

We aren’t very good at seeing or understanding statistics when we plot our own trajectories

All we do is get born, go to school, go on vacation, go to college, fall in love, graduate and get into some kind of profession, get married, have kids, send the kids to school, get divorced like 50 percent of the population, get fat, get the first heart attack, retire, die.

while the media bring us anomalies of our imagined society that brings more murder and beauty than actually exists.

if we could see what Life was like for everyone else, if we could see all the Grey Areas we’d perceive how frequent disappointment is and how my unfulfilled ambition is circulating How much confusion and uncertainty is being played out.

Then we’d realize how abnormal and cruel the goals we have set ourselves to ‘find happiness’ really are. We need to feel more tenderness in ourselves for not ‘winning’ because in all probability we won't achieve what we hoped for though there is comfort

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charliebilello · 7 years

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The Difference Between Statistics and Strategy

Statement 1: the average year has between 3 and 4 corrections greater than 5%.

Statement 2: every year has between 3 and 4 corrections greater than 5%.

Statement 1 is a true statistic regarding the S&P 500 going back to 1928. It can serve as a helpful reminder that there is no reward without risk and that equity securities are inherently volatile (the current period notwithstanding). Corrections happen, even in good markets.

Problems start to arise when investors assume that because Statement 1 is true that Statement 2 must be true as well. Markets, unfortunately, don’t operate that way. The actual environment rarely looks like the average environment.

Since March 2009, there have been 21 corrections greater than 5%, but they were not evenly distributed. In 2009 and 2010, we saw 4. In 2013 we only saw 1. Thus far in 2017 we have yet to see any.

This behavior is rare, but not unprecedented. In 1995 the S&P 500 went the entire year without a 5% drawdown. In fact, the largest drawdown on a closing basis was only 2.5%, and did not occur until December.

You can bet that many investors fought this non-stop rally higher and many others sold out in the early going, “waiting for a correction” to “get back in” at a lower price.

But the correction never came in 1995 and the corrections in 1996 were not deep enough to provide an opportunity for investors who sold out in early 1995 to get back in at lower prices. The S&P 500 would gain more than 20% in 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999 before ultimately peaking in March 2000.

To be sure, this was perhaps the strongest period in history for U.S. equities, and no one could have foreseen what was to come at the end of 1995. But that’s part of the point here. We could not reasonably predict what was to occur from 1996-2000 because the behavior of 1995 was not by itself a signal of anything. It was merely a deviation from the average outcome, which is not the exception in markets but the rule.

As I write, the S&P 500 is hitting yet another all-time high. Thus far in 2017 the largest drawdown on a closing basis has only been 2.8%, which would be the lowest since 1995.

The Volatility index (VIX) ended May at its lowest monthly close in history.

For those waiting for the typical correction or for the average level volatility to resume, this has been an immensely frustrating year. For everyone else, it’s been quite good as I outlined last week.

That’s not to say that we shouldn’t expect to see corrections with more frequency. We should. And it’s not do say that we shouldn’t be prepared to see higher volatility. We should as well. The statistics (average outcomes) say that both higher volatility and increased frequency of corrections are likely.

But there’s a big difference between statistics and strategy and this is where many investors go awry. There were four corrections in 1996. Volatility did indeed rise from the extreme low levels of 1995. But that "reversion to the mean" was not a strategy; it did not help investors who sold in early 1995 on the hopes of buying in at lower prices.

Which is why basing your investment strategy on interesting statistics can be a dangerous game.

***

The Difference Between a Prediction and a Probability

Interesting vs. Actionable

Pundit or Professional

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This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

CHARLIE BILELLO

Charlie Bilello is the Director of Research at Pension Partners, LLC, an investment advisor that manages mutual funds and separate accounts. He is the co-author of four award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. Mr. Bilello is responsible for strategy development, investment research and communicating the firm’s investment themes and portfolio positioning to clients. Prior to joining Pension Partners, he was the Managing Member of Momentum Global Advisors and previously held positions as a Credit, Equity and Hedge Fund Analyst at billion dollar alternative investment firms.

Mr. Bilello holds a J.D. and M.B.A. in Finance and Accounting from Fordham University and a B.A. in Economics from Binghamton University. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a Member of the Market Technicians Association. Mr. Bilello also holds the Certified Public Accountant (CPA) certificate.

You can follow Charlie on twitter here.

#$SPY #$VOO #$IVV #$^gspc #$^vix

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