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2023 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

Out in the real world, this year's Oscars are going to be a test of whether the Academy's efforts to diversify its membership have had any effect. If they have, Everything Everywhere All At Once wins big. If they haven't, Top Gun: Maverick takes the technical categories and The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis and TAR split everything else. If the answer is somewhere in the middle, then who the heck knows?

My Magic 8-Ball, of course. And by “of course,” I mean “maybe”.

You know the drill by now: I present each nominee to the Magic 8-Ball. Most positive answer in each category gets the pick. Trust at your own risk, but if you use these picks and it turns out that the Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay votes were so split that what seemed like the least likely nominees won – well, you know where to find us with a generous portion of those Oscar pool winnings.

Best Picture: Avatar: The Way of Water Director: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once Actor: Austin Butler, Elvis Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once Supporting actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Adapted Screenplay: Top Gun: Maverick Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin Animated Feature: Turning Red International Feature: The Quiet Girl Documentary Feature: A House Made of Splinters Editing: The Banshees of Inisherin Cinematography: Bardo Costume Design: Elvis Makeup and Hair: All Quiet on the Western Front Production Design: All Quiet on the Western Front Original Song: “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All At Once Original Score: Everything Everywhere All At Once Sound: Top Gun: Maverick Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water Animated Short: My Year of Dicks Live Action Short: The Red Suitcase Documentary Short: Stranger at the Gate

#oscars #oscars2023 #oscarpicks #magic 8 ball #movies #silly

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2022 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks: Because it's not like you've seen all the shorts either.

Best Picture: CODA

Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Lead Actress: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Lead Actor: Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Original Screenplay: Don’t Look Up

Adapted Screenplay: The Lost Daughter

Cinematography: Dune

Editing: The Power of the Dog

Animated Feature: Luca

Animate Short: Robin Robin

Live-Action Short: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

International Feature: The Hand of God

Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Documentary Short: Three Songs for Benazir

Score: Dune

Song: No Time to Die

Sound: Belfast

Costume Design Cyrano

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Production Design: Dune

Visual Effects: Spider-Man: No Way Home

As always, if you really want to win your Oscar pool, your real best bet is to look at the guild awards and filter them through the "What do a bunch of semi-retired 70-year-old well-off white guys think all the other semi-retired 70-year-old well-off rich white guys are voting for?" But when it comes to those categories for which you have no context, just remember that my Magic 8-Ball has historically done slightly better than chance would dictate. It accepts cuts of your pool winnings via me.

#Oscars #2022oscars #Oscars2022 #Movies #Silly #magic 8 ball

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2021 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

Big movies and my random posts took a year off, but the Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks are harder to keep down. You know the drill: I’ve presented my Magic 8-Ball with each nominee and noted the most positive response in each category.

Best Picture: The Trial of the Chicago 7 Director: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari Lead Actress: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman Lead Actor: Steven Yeun, Minari Supporting Actress: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy Supporting Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman Adapted screenplay: Nomadland Cinematography: News of the World Editing: The Father Animated Feature: Soul Animated Short: Opera Live-action Short: The Letter Room International Feature: Quo Vadis, Aida? Documentary Feature: The Mole Agent Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha Score: Soul Original Song: "Speak Now," One Night in Miami Sound: Greyhound Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Production Design: News of the World Visual Effects: The One and Only Ivan

The 8-Ball has tapped into a little-discussed undercurrent: Even with the more recent push for diversity, the Oscar votership is still largely white, male and past 65. They were around during the events of Judas and the Black Messiah and The Trial of the Chicago 7, and may have personally known a Chicago 7 or two. They could have been around Hollywood enough to revere the story of Mank. They could be living one of the main roles in The Father. They might secretly fear ending up like the characters in Nomadland. That kind of personal connection could make a difference in close categories.

Per usual, the 8-Ball and I take no responsibility for any money you may lose by using these picks for your Oscar pool, but if they work out for you, we'll graciously accept a cut of the winnings.

#Oscars #Oscars2021 #2021 Oscars #academy awards #movies #oscarpicks #magic 8 ball

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2020 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

When making your Oscar picks, you can’t do much better than asking yourself, “Who do a bunch of 65-year-old white dudes in Santa Monica think all their friends are going for, based on the guild awards and what they overheard at Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf?” Or you can go with my Magic 8-Ball. I mean, it’s your choice.

As always, I’ve presented the plastic oracle with each and every nominee and noted the most positive response in each category. The results:

Picture: 1917 Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The Irishman Supporting Actress: Margot Robbie, Bombshell Director: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite Animated Feature: Missing Link Animated Short: Dcera Adapted Screenplay: Joker Original Screenplay: Once Upon A Time In Hollywood Cinematography: The Irishman Documentary Feature: American Factory Documentary Short: In The Absence Live Action Short: Saria International Feature Film: Corpus Christi Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari Sound Mixing: Ad Astra Production Design: 1917 Score: Joker Song: “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough Makeup and Hair: Joker Costume Design: Jojo Rabbit Visual Effects: The Irishman

Some notes:

Due to excessive bubbling in the 8-Ball I’d been using for the past few years, I produced a new one this year. In the past, swapping out the physical oracle hasn’t had an effect on how its picks compare to the final results. You can choose to believe that this is because the oracle relies on pure chance, or you can choose to believe that it taps into a universal stream of movie award wisdom. Again, your choice.

I’m not being facetious about the makeup of the voting body. In 2015, the Academy was 92% white and 75% male, with an average age of sixtysomething. Since they’ve started to actively invite a more diverse membership, it’s now approximately (checks Hollywood Reporter’s number-crunching) 84% white and 68% male, with an average age of midlatefiftysomething. 

Of course everyone’s going to say that they vote for the best movie, yadda yadda yadda, but consider: As I write this up, the Spirit Awards are being dominated by movies that didn’t get nominated for the Oscars. These are largely movies about women, people of color, the working class - people who the Oscar voters just don’t share life experiences with, and apparently don’t care to learn about. (I’ve contended all season that a big part of why Jennifer Lopez didn’t get her expected nomination is that voters identified with the people her character took advantage of.) This year, the Supporting Actress Oscar is likely to go to Laura Dern - but bear in mind that she’s playing a character much like people a sizable portion of the voters have met and not liked. If you’re looking for an upset, look for Margot Robbie or Florence Pugh to take the category - partly because they both did amazing jobs, but also because a sizable portion of voters want to get wit’ them.

There are three schools of thought on which film will take the top prize: 1917, because it’s an innovative and epic war film; Parasite, because it’s just a phenomenal movie; or Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, because it’s a whole movie full of characters the voters can identify with - and in some cases are real people they know/knew - filmed at locations they see every day. I’d give the edge to Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, because narcissism wins in the end... and also because I’m hearing multiple reports of voters quietly admitting they haven’t watched Parasite because of the subtitles.

The Magic 8-Ball did not want to pick a winner in the Sound Editing category. It took four rounds of queries before it came up with anything more positive than “My sources say no”. So, just know that in that category, Ford v Ferrari is winning on the basis of “Don’t count on it”

Over in Original Song, the Magic 8-Ball picked “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough, making it the only Oscar prognosticator to pick a Diane Warren song in the history of Oscar prognostication.

As always, the Magic 8-Ball and I take no responsibility for any money you may lose by abiding by the picks, but hope you’ll cut us in if you win big.

#Oscars #2020 oscars #oscars2020 #oscar picks #movies #magic 8-ball

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Robert Mueller’s Congressional Testimony: A Summary

Above: Let’s do the thing. © Getty Images

MUELLER: Hi. You know I'm only talking about what's in the report, right?DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSPERSON: Got it. Could you please read this line from Vol 2 so we can get a sound bite for Twitter? MUELLER: Nice try. You're welcome to read it. DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSPERSON: Nah, can you just confirm that if the POTUS weren't the POTUS he'd be indicted? MUELLER: Yup. DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSPERSON: Cool, we'll just quote that. I yield the remainder of my time.

Above: Saying something that will change absolutely no one’s mind about anything, but makes for decent video. © USA Today.

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSPERSON: This isn't a question so much as a list of things I heard on Fox News: Text messages, Steele dossier, leaks, FISA warrant – MUELLER: Yeah, not talking about any of that. REPUBLICAN CONGRESSPERSON: – Fusion GPS, New York Times, Benghazi, Clinton campaign – MUELLER: What?  REPUBLICAN CONGRESSPERSON: Moving on. You didn't find that your investigation was obstructed, right? MUELLER: This one, no. But there were over 10 other times – REPUBLICAN CONGRESSPERSON: So no obstruction, no collision, total exoneration despite biased investigators. Isn't that right? MUELLER: One more time: the President has not been exonerated. And I've never asked a potential team member about their political affiliations in an interview because it's AGAINST THE LAW.  REPUBLICAN CONGRESSPERSON: Well, what is exoneration, anyway? Whatevs. I yield the remainder of my time to that conspiracy theorist, who will ask the same things he’s already asked and act affronted that Mueller still won’t answer. MUELLER: Don’t you want to talk about Russian interference in the election? AMERICA: 

#politics #us politics #mueller #mueller hearing #congress #political theater

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Obligatory Game Of Thrones Final Season Prediction

Everyone dies but the dragons, because HELLO? DRAGONS.

#game of thrones #got #got8 #winter is coming #dragons dragonsdragonsdragons

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A Summary Of The Barr Summary Of The Mueller Report

Above: Simulated deckling. (c) New York Times

Attorney General selected because he wouldn’t prosecute Trump for obstruction of justice opts not to prosecute Trump for obstruction of justice.

Film at 11.

#politics #us politics #mueller #mueller report #barr summary #just doing my job #so over this timeline

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Michael Cohen’s Congressional Testimony, In Summary

Above: Michael Cohen and some of his many water bottles. (c) Time Magazine

The interaction between any Republican member of the House Oversight Committee and Michael Cohen:

REP: [rants for several minutes about how they shouldn't be having this hearing] COHEN: [sucks down the contents of one of those little bottles of water] REP: Mr. Cohen, you're a liar, right? COHEN: Yup. REP: Didn't you want to get something more out of this than being the President's personal lawyer? COHEN: Nah. REP: Don't you owe money to _____? COHEN: Nope. REP: You gonna try to get a book deal after you're out? COHEN: Uh... Yeah. Duh. Hey, I have some potentially damning information about the President if you want to-- REP: Nah. The mean man says my time's up. COHEN: Cool. I didn't have an answer to that question you didn't ask anyway. REP: You're still a liar. COHEN: Yep. That's why I pled guilty.

Interaction with Democratic members:

DEM: Yeesh! Republicans, amirite? COHEN: [sucks down the content of another tiny bottle of water] DEM: So, all that stuff you say happened, happened? COHEN: Yup. Especially the stuff where I said he told me what to say, and the stuff where I point out his signature on a personal check. DEM: Yeah, we should probably look into that. I yield the remainder of my time.

#politics #us politics #michael cohen #congress

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2019 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

It’s Oscar time, which means it’s Oscar pool time. If you want to tie with half the people in your pool, check out the guild awards and read experts’ predictions. If you want to take a chance in the most literal sense, turn to my Magic 8-Ball.

As always, I’ve presented the oracle with all nominees and noted the most positive response in each category. The results:

Picture: Green Book Actor: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Actress: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Supporting Actor: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Supporting Actress: Emma Stone, The Favourite Director: Adam Mckay, Vice Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me? Original Screenplay: Vice Animated Feature: Ralph Breaks the Internet Animated Short: Weekends Cinematography: Roma Documentary Feature: RBG Documentary Short: Lifeboat Live Action Short: Marguerite Foreign Language Film: Cold War Film Editing: BlacKkKlansman Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born Production Design: Black Panther Original Score: Black Panther Original Song: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns Makeup and Hair: Border Costume Design: Black Panther Visual Effects: Christopher Robin

For those of you who prefer a slightly more evidence-based approach, I looked at some numbers.

The Academy has invited about 1700 new members to join over the last 2 years. If all of them accepted, that would bring the votership up to 9226 people and make the Academy polity 31% female and 16% people of color. It’s a little harder to pin down the ages. In 2016, the median age was 62. The new class is statistically younger than that, and they make up 18% of the latest recruits. I’ll leave the actual number-crunching to someone who has the time to look up all the new recruits’ birthdates. Let’s just knock a few years off and say the median age is - I don’t know, 58.

So, when in doubt for a given category, pick the nominee that 58-year-old white men in the industry are likely to a) identify with and b) think all the other industry white men are voting for, because everybody wants to back a winner. Roma director-writer-cinematographer-etcer Alfonso Cuarón is 57, which puts him right in line to satisfy condition a) in several categories.

On the other hand: Based on polls and conversations, I can tell you that older voters really love them some Green Book. They love them some Green Book even more than my Magic 8-Ball does, putting it in line to satisfy condition b). Green Book may be this year’s Crash, which would be a bit disheartening when Green Book wasn’t even the best piece of “pre-Civil Rights Act Deep South through the eyes of someone who’s not from around here” media of 2018. (That was the Doctor Who episode “Rosa,” which you should watch.)

I couldn’t find location data on the new additions, but we know from past classes that Academy voters are likely to live in the greater West Los Angeles area. I, too, live in the greater West Los Angeles area, so I’m swimming in the same media blitzes that the voters are likely to be swimming in. Two super-local things I noticed:

1) Disney went all out with the public radio underwriting for “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns.

2) There’s been talk that Roma might suffer from the stigma of coming from a streaming service. ‘Round these parts, there’s been no shortage of opportunities for voters to catch it on the big screen. It played for weeks at the Nuart, just off the 405 on Santa Monica Boulevard; and had a presence on Wilshire just east of the 405. Voters even had multiple opportunities to see it in 70 MM projection at the American Cinematheque theaters in Hollywood and Santa Monica. The upshot is that if a voter works near the 405 or spends time in Hollywood, it’s entirely possible they see Roma as a regular ol’ big-screen film that just happens to be distributed by Netflix.

As always, I assume no responsibility for any trust you put in either the Magic 8-Ball or my ground-level observations - but if they help you win, remember me when you’re giving out cuts of the prize.

#oscars #oscars2019 #movies #magic 8-ball #2019 oscars #oscar picks #roma #green book

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Or: This Is How We Pesach. A lovely write-up of our annual tradition. Any sangria headaches from last night should clear up by Lag B'Omer.

#passover #pesach #judaism #seder #hollywood #wacky actors

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2018 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

The conventional wisdom for 2018 is pretty much unanimous: Go with the guild winners; engrave Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell & Allison Janney’s names on the acting awards now; Best Picture will totally be The Shape Of Water, unless it’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, or Get Out wins the consensus vote, or if not enough voters have seen Get Out then maybe Phantom Thread has a shot.

But if everyone goes by the conventional wisdom, then 10 people win your Oscar pool, and you only make $2 in the end. And so we turn to the Magic 8-Ball.

You know how this works by now: I put all the nominees in all the categories to my Magic 8-Ball and recorded the most positive answers. After reading the cosmic signs on over 200 nominees in two dozen categories, here’s what the over-it oracle predicted:

Best Picture: Get Out Lead Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis, Phantom Thread Lead Actress: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water Director: Jordan Peele, Get Out Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist Original Screenplay: Lady Bird Animated Feature: Coco Animated Short: Negative Space Cinematography: Mudbound Documentary Feature: Strong Island Documentary Short: Edith+Eddie Live Action Short: Watu Wote/All Of Us Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman Film Editing: Dunkirk Sound Editing: Dunkirk Sound Mixing: Dunkurk Production Design: Beauty and the Beast Original Score: Dunkirk Original Song: “Mighty River” from Mudbound Makeup and Hair: Darkest Hour Costume Design: The Shape Of Water Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes

And now comes the part where we talk about how no one has a clue who’s going to win Best Picture. Oh, sure, some people will say they do, and at the end of the night a different group of people will say they knew it all along. At least half the people who got it wrong will oh-so-cleverly declare that there must have been another envelope mix-up. Drunk people will say things that the next day they’ll claim they don’t remember. Life will go on.

There have been two major Academy innovations in recent years: Making a concerted effort to invite new voters who aren’t rich, 60-something white guys who all see the same campaign billboards on Santa Monica Boulevard as they drive home from work; and using preferential voting to determine the Best Picture winner. This means a movie that as many people hated as loved can lose out to a movie that everyone liked pretty well, and it could be argued that last year was proof that it makes a difference: Reading the trades, it looked like as many people didn’t like presumed winner La La Land as loved it. Moonlight was always in conversation as a movie that everyone liked pretty well but didn’t stand a chance against a pre-ordained winner… until it did.

This year The Shape Of Water rules the nominations, and Three Billboards has racked up key wins. Still, I’m not reading about a ton of industry people who looooooved The Shape Of Water. Hollywood loves it some Guillermo del Toro; that he’s finally attached to a well-loved title makes his Best Director win as close to a lock as there is this year. The movie has that whole “love letter to film” thing, but, honestly, that’s kinda played out this year. (If it weren’t, The Disaster Artist - aka “La La Land for the rest of us” - would have had more nominations.) Meanwhile, a lot of people love the performances in Three Billboards, but are tepid on the movie as a whole. (I’m one of them.)

Get Out, though.

Get Out would seem to have everything going against it. It’s a movie made on the cheap by a guy who’d mostly worked in television. It came out over a year ago. While it features respected actors, none of them are in the name-above-the-title stratum. And it’s explicitly about what it’s like to be an African-American man in contemporary America.

The Academy tends to prefer movies that treat racism as a thing of the past. If a contemporary movie acknowledges race, it’s an intersectional incidental. The villains of Get Out look a lot like the people who make those movies, and who have historically dominated the Academy: White, wealthy, mostly male, getting older, can’t possibly harbor any prejudice because they loved Barack Obama. Get Out is an exquisitely-constructed movie that makes the right people uncomfortable. Jordan Peele deserves the Adapted Screenplay Oscar for the introduction of “The Sunken Place” alone: Putting words to something that people just haven’t been able to put their finger one is a rare feat.

Plus, Get Out made gobs of money. Hollywood loves that even more than Guillermo del Toro.

Universal has been very clever with their marketing. They position Get Out as a Very Important Film For The Ages - a tactic which usually makes me roll my eyes, except this time it’s… kinda right. Will that be enough to get a critical mass of older voters to watch it and give it the consideration it deserves? Or will it be left in the wake of safe bets?

Pass the popcorn.

#oscars #2018 oscars #oscar picks #get out #film #the shape of water #three billboards movie

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Republican Health Care Proposal: A Condensed Drama

GOP: Our health plan will be so good for so many people! Trust us!

CBO: Actually, at least 24 million people would lose health coverage.

GOP: Pfft! What does the CBO know?

People paying attention: The CBO is a nonpartisan office headed by someone chosen by this Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader.

GOP: But still.

People paying attention: And what's up with sticking a massive tax cut for the mega-rich in there? You're usually more subtle than that.

GOP: LA LA LA LA SQUIRREL

#health care #republicans #ahca #politics #us politics

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2017 Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

Conventional wisdom holds that La La Land will clean up at this year’s Oscars. But there is one oracle that defies the conventional wisdom – one that proudly admits to not having seen any of the nominated films, because it is an inanimate object which has no eyes: My Magic 8-Ball.

And this year, it may actually have a point.

We’ll get to that in a minute. First the picks. You know the drill: I present each nominee in each category to my Magic 8-Ball and record the most positive responses. Categories where no clear winner was selected are noted. Margin of error is two small air bubbles.

Best Picture: Hidden Figures Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land Lead Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea Lead Actress: Natalie Portman, Jackie Supporting Actor: Dev Patel, Lion Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures Adapted Screenplay: Lion Original Screenplay: Hell Or High Water Animated Feature: Kubo And The Two Strings Cinematography: La La Land Costume Design: Jackie Documentary Feature: O.J.: Made In America Documentary Short: Extremis Film Editing: Hacksaw Ridge Foreign Language Film: Land Of Mine Makeup & Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond (or maybe Suicide Squad) Original Score: La La Land Original Song: “City of Stars” from La La Land Production Design: Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them Animated Short: Borrowed Time LIve Action Short: La Femme et le TGV Sound Editing: La La Land Sound Mixing: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Bengazi Visual Effects: Doctor Strange (or maybe Rogue One, or maybe The Jungle Book. The 8-ball was pretty meh on this one.)

So, La La Land is almost certainly going to win the big awards. Everyone loves to see themselves on screen, even the people who make movies, and this movie is literally about the people voting for the awards. Also, remember that despite inviting a diverse group of nearly 700 new members in 2016, the Academy is 89% white... kinda like La La Land.

It’s such a foregone conclusion that campaigning has seemed much lower-key than usual - at least, I haven’t felt pummeled by many billboards as I have in years past. (If you want to get into some of the finer points of this year’s Oscar campaigning, last week’s episode of Vulture’s The Awards Show Show gives a good explanation of the importance of second-phase marketing.)

In recent years, the Academy has moved to a ranking system for the Best Picture voters - which, as this FiveThirtyEight post explains,  weights it heavily in favor of movies that most people liked but weren’t necessarily loved by many. It’s weighted against movies that inspired strong feelings. 

Hardly anyone really hates La La Land. I thought it was a charming, fun movie, but it didn’t stick with me like, say, Arrival did. But not everyone has the patience for Arrival, which has a slow-moving plot with heady themes, some of which don’t unfold until you think about them a couple of days later. And even though Moonlight’s underlying themes are universal, it’s also about a very specific character that a large group of Academy voters might have trouble connecting to.

Hidden Figures is another one that everyone seemed to like. As I write, it’s the top-grossing Best Picture nominee – and how awesome is it that so many people are actually going to see a historical movie about women of color in STEM?! There’s not much original in the execution of it, but it’s a well-made film with solid performances – one of the rare movies that gets top marks from both critics and audiences. So while I don’t think it’s at the top of many ballots, if it’s in second or third place on enough of them it could just edge out La La Land.

It probably won’t. But it could.

As for the rest of the categories, if you actually want to win your Oscar contest it’s hard to go wrong with the guild awards for the top categories. Keep the larger narratives in mind – like how the Academy needs to make up for not giving an Oscar to Viola Davis for The Help, how the director of The Salesman was caught up in the travel ban, and whether the fact that Lin-Manuel Miranda just needs an O to become the youngest EGOT winner in the history of such things will be enough to vault his Original Song nominee over the entries from La La Land.

If you need a tiebreaker, go with Arrival. I say this not because the 8-Ball declares it, but because they sent out some great wearable swag. I did this year’s picks wrapped up in a very cozy Arrival zip-up hoodie (with detachable hood! and thumb holes in the cuffs!). Ties have been broken on less.

#oscars #oscars2017 #movies #showbiz #la la land #hidden figures #moonlight #arrival #magic 8-ball

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"The acting Attorney General, Sally Yates, has betrayed the Department of Justice.”

This is not normal. This is an ideological purge. This is using Nixon as a shining example, with apparent certainty that the executive branch is moving too quickly for the other branches to stop them. I don’t know that we even have a mechanism for it.

Hannah Arendt’s The Origins Of Totalitarianism should not be used as a playbook. But as long as the Trump administration seems to be going by it, I’m getting a reading group together. We might as well know what’s coming.

#politics #us politics #trumplandia #us government #constituttion #hannah arendt #the origins of totalitarianism #when the world is running down you make the best of what's still around

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Women's March Los Angeles: A Photo Album From Somewhere In The Crowd

#Flickr #women's march #women's march la #women's march los angeles #los angeles #downtown los angeles #protests

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The Electoral College Representation Map, Or: Shades Of Voice

As the Electoral College gathers to cast its votes, I’m sparing you another rant about how the EC isn’t granular enough to represent the country’s population at its current size. I will not rant on about how an individual vote in Wyoming is worth 3.5 times as much as an individual vote in California or Texas.

Instead, I made a map.

(Click to enlarge. If you’d like an even larger version, shoot me a message.)

It’s not pretty, but it’s a serviceable visual representation of the weight each state’s electoral votes bring to the College. States here are shaded according to their ratio of percentage of electoral vote to percentage of population. For example, California - with 10.22% electoral votes and 12.18% of the population - gives us a result of 83.93, which I’m rounding up to 84 for our purposes. Wyoming has 0.56% of the electoral vote and 0.18% of the population, which works out to 309.79, which rounds up to 310. The higher that final number, the darker the shading.

In other words: An individual voter in the lightest-shaded states is underrepresented in the Electoral College. An individual voter in the darkest-shaded states is overrepresented. If you want a benchmark to compare to, use Tennessee and Washington - with results of 100, they’re as close to equal representation in the electoral college and population you’re going to find.

I know it’s hard to see some of the differences in the lighter gradations. I wanted to keep the states on the same scale, and this was the best gradient I could come up with. Feel free to download, import into any image-editing application, and play around with the contrast if it helps you get a sense for just how out of whack the institution has become.

#politics #us politics #maps #electoral college #2016 election

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48 hours later, and it’s already less safe to be anything but a native-born white Christian cis straight man in this country.

The words “black lives don’t matter and neither does your votes” we’re spray painted in #Durham yesterday. @WNCN pic.twitter.com/rQqyITMzAW

— Lauren Haviland (@LaurenWNCN) November 10, 2016

District officials in Maple Grove say they are “horrified” by racist graffiti scrawled today in a bathroom. | https://t.co/cO5EVnUBjz pic.twitter.com/rj0rMoVeJm

— WCCO - CBS Minnesota (@WCCO) November 9, 2016

I don’t want to hear one more person telling me all us liberals are overreacting.

#usa #us politics #us elections 2016 #hate #trumpland #scary #action