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randomlifeunit · 4 years

Text

Paralyzed

Part: 23/?

Rating: Teen and up

Warnings: Flashbacks, anxiety/panic attack, mental/emotional breakdown.

The evening before moving day, Rebecca joined Sean and Dennis for a quiet take-out dinner at home, which they were currently lingering over as conversation flowed. Sean had felt jittery the whole meal, and he hoped neither she nor his father could see how tense he was. He wrestled with his thoughts, unable to put them to rest, utterly distracted until he realized the conversation around him had suddenly come to a stop. He looked up, seeing his dad looking at him expectantly. "I’m sorry, what?" he asked.

Dennis began to repeat the question, but instead amended, "Are you all right, Son? Your mind seems elsewhere."

Sean struggled to put his thoughts into words, his mouth opening and closing. "It’s this move," he started, then stalled out. His dad asked, "What about it?" Sean hesitated, then finally he blurted, "I can’t help but feeling as if we’re making a big mistake—this feels all wrong. We can’t just leave all this behind." That sure didn’t come out right, he thought with a wince.

"What? What do you mean?" his dad looked at him with his brows furrowed.

Sean stood from the table in a rush and splayed his hands in front of him. "I just don’t feel comfortable with it, okay? I know it's totally crazy to feel this way, but I can't help myself." his jaw clenched in frustration.

"What are you saying? We’ve been talking about this for a few months now. You’re just getting cold feet. Don’t worry, it’ll work out fine," Dennis remarked, rising to face his son and patting him on the shoulder.

Sean didn't feel reassured at all. "Dad, I— is there any other alternative to going through with all this? Please tell me there is another option," he pleaded, feeling irrationally desperate as sweat broke out on his forehead. Rebecca rose to stand beside Dennis, beginning to look concerned. "Sean," she began softly, then subsided.

"The movers are coming tomorrow morning, Sean—we can’t back out now," his dad interjected, sounding tired and irritated. "The house is already sold! What do you expect me to do?"

"I don’t know! I just—I can’t do this, it’s too much! I can’t handle it!" Sean’s voice rose as he strove to be understood. Rebecca stretched a hand out to touch his arm, but he stepped back, hands clenched to stop them from shaking. Her hand fell to her side, concern plainly written on her face.

"Hey, I know this is hard for you. But we’ve got to move forward with this. You’re going to be okay!" Dennis said forcefully, trying to convince and appease simultaneously.

Barely-contained emotion quivered underneath the taught muscles of Sean's shoulders and jaw. Rebecca stepped towards him again, but he didn’t want to be placated. Eyes burning, his voice cracked as it rose in anguish and frustration. "No! I’m NOT okay! NONE of this is okay! I didn’t ask for ANY of this!!" he exploded. He turned and fled the room, but not before he caught a glimpse of the shock frozen on the faces of his father and girlfriend.

He snatched his jacket from the hook and ran out of the house, slamming the door behind him. But he couldn’t outrun the guilt and shame peaking to a crescendo, and the wave of emotion crashed down as the tears finally broke free and coursed down his face. Grabbing his bike from the garage with a jerk, he hopped on and sped down the street, wishing the coming darkness would swallow him whole. Stifling his sobs with one arm, he coasted down the hill away from his childhood home. Whispers of old memories rose up in his mind, and he felt powerless to keep them away.

Hardly even seeing where he went, he sped down a quiet side road and pedaled furiously, finally stopping when he saw an empty field between two lots. He tossed his bike to the side and sought shelter under the low branches of an evergreen tree near the roadside. Flashbacks of his abduction began to assault his mind in earnest, leaving him shaking, his head on his knees.

The knife.

The darkness.

The pain.

*********************

Rebecca stood rooted to the spot momentarily as the front door slammed, rattling the front window in its pane. She had a sinking feeling this had been a long time coming, and she had missed the signs. She’d thought Sean was coping well. Suddenly her mind snapped to the present, and she dashed out the front door, Dennis on her heels. They both saw Sean hop on his bike and start down the street in the semi-darkness. Rebecca panicked for a second, then called in a rush as she ran to the garage, "Can I borrow your bike?" Dennis called out in agreement, as he headed to the car. Rebecca admonished quickly, "Why don’t you start it, but wait here? I might be able to talk him down, but I’ll call you if I need you!" she shouted the last of her words as she'd already jumped on the bike and shot down the street after Sean. Dennis stood staring after her, open-mouthed, then considered what she had said. He watched her until he couldn’t see her anymore, cell phone in hand, praying she would find his son. As the minutes ticked by, he started to put the vehicle in gear a half-dozen times, but stopped in indecision. Maybe Rebecca will have better luck if I stay out of it. She always seems to know how to help when he’s upset, he thought, feeling confused and guilty for his part in the argument.

Ten minutes later, he was beginning to rethink driving after them. His mind scrambled for ideas, wondering if the cell phone company could track Sean’s whereabouts. Anxiety mounted higher and higher as time seemed to slow to a crawl.

Fifteen minutes later, Dennis was buckling up while backing down the driveway when Rebecca texted him three short words— I found him. In relief he sagged against the seat, head in his hands, blowing out the breath he’d been holding.

Rebecca pedaled for all she was worth towards the receding form of her boyfriend in the distance. Breathing fast, her heart beating, she squinted to keep his dim shape in her line of sight, barely catching him turning down a side street, briefly illuminated in the circle of light from a street lamp. She was grateful that the neighborhood was quiet this time of night, the few cars on the road giving her a wide berth as she raced past parked vehicles. Rounding the corner, she caught sight again of Sean up ahead and felt intense relief. Pedaling as fast as a she could, she kept pace with him, but was unable to overtake him until at last, he pulled off to an abrupt stop up ahead. She saw him practically fall off of his bike in his hurry to get off, and then he disappeared into a field. Hurry, hurry, her mind pulsed with each breath, closing the distance and hopping off her borrowed bike in a rush.

It was already almost completely dark, and Rebecca’s head swiveled left and right, searching for some sign of Sean. She started forward, calling his name. In a few moments she stopped abruptly, straining to listen, certain she’d heard something. The sound of stifled sobs drifted towards her, and she surged forward towards the noise. “Sean!!” she cried out in mingled relief and worry as she spotted him, huddled beneath a tree. She sprinted towards him, quickly pulling her cell phone from her pocket and dictating a hurried text to Dennis: I found him. Falling to her knees next to Sean in a rush of breath, she brushed her hair out of her face and softly called his name. He didn’t move or acknowledge her presence, and her breath hitched in her chest. She tried reaching out to touch his shoulder, calling his name a little louder.

Sean gasped loudly as he shot backwards away from her like a singed cat, one shaking arm flung outward to keep her at bay. Rebecca paled at his reaction, then softly, gently, called out to him. "Sean, it’s me, Rebecca. Please, love, I’m here to help. Nothing’s going to hurt you." Her breath quivered in her throat. His breathing stopped altogether for a few beats, and then he slowly raised his head and opened his eyes. "Rebecca?" he breathed in disbelief. "What are you doing here?" She could hear how much his voice shook. She slowly began to creep towards him, and said softly, gently, "I followed you here, love. I just want to help you." She eased up next to his side as he blinked and looked up at her. His eyes seemed slightly unfocused as he panted, searching her face. She slowly brought one hand up to touch his cheek, making sure he could see it coming. He still flinched when she made contact, and she winced at the way he gasped, face twisting in remorse.

"You must hate me now," he said with a shudder, seeming to come back to himself. He turned his face away from Rebecca, but she didn't remove her hand. She scooted even closer to him and drew him towards her. "No way," she said, wrapping both arms around his shoulders and pressing him close. "I'm just so glad I found you." He turned and pressed his face into her shoulder, and broke down sobbing. Rebecca held him close, rocking back and forth slightly, murmuring words of comfort, one hand making slow circles on his back. Her own tears made silent tracks down her cheeks, but she didn't wipe them away. She felt deeply disturbed by what had happened, but knew she would need to wait to ask questions until later. Right now Sean needed her.

Some time later, as he slowly subsided on her shoulder, Rebecca told him, "I've never hated you for one moment. I love you, Sean. I'll always love you, no matter what happens." He remained silent, shuddering sighs into her shoulder, spent of tears but still shaking slightly. "How about you come spend the night with me tonight? Put moving out of your mind for now. Just be with me, as long as you like. What do you think?" Sean didn't answer, but he nodded mutely against her shoulder. She released a breath in relief. "I'm going to need your dad to pick us up and drive us over, okay?"

Sean's head snapped up. "Oh no. Dad." His face paled. Rebecca smoothed his hair away from his face. "What's wrong?" she asked gently. "He's going to be so mad." his voice shook. "No, I can promise you, he won't be," Rebecca reassured resolutely. "He'll just be glad you're okay." Sean lowered his head back to her shoulder, sighing deeply. He made no attempt to respond.

Rebecca pulled her phone out with one hand, and reached both arms behind Sean's back so she could text Dennis while still keeping Sean in her embrace. She glanced up at a street sign by the road, squinting to make out the name, and asked Dennis to pick them up, telling him Sean would be spending the night with her. She asked if he could bring a change of clothes, and asked him not to say too much to Sean when he arrived--she felt he wasn't ready to face conversation just yet.

A reply appeared little more than a minute later: I'm on my way. Rebecca sighed in relief and put her phone away, holding Sean a little tighter. He sagged against her, keeping his face hidden. "Love, I need to stand up with you, so your Dad will be able to see us," she gently murmured near his ear. He sighed and sat up, keeping his eyes averted, and shakily stood to his feet with her support. She put one arm around his waist and draped his arm across her shoulders, determined to support him as much as she could. Together they walked slowly back towards the roadside, at the same time as headlights appeared heading quickly towards them on the road. Dennis rolled up in his vehicle and came to a fast stop, hopping out of the door and leaving it ajar in his haste. "Is he all right?" he asked Rebecca breathlessly. "I think so, for the most part," she answered quietly, sending a look of compassion towards Sean's father. He looked distraught, his hair wild and his clothes disheveled. He reached for Sean's arm, gently giving it a squeeze. "I'm so glad we found you, Son. I thought I'd lost you for a bit there." Sean met his gaze with an agonizing look on his face, then ducked his head and mumbled an apology.

Rebecca ushered him into the backseat and helped him buckle in, sitting as close to his side as she could and keeping an arm around him. She heard Dennis loading the bikes up in the back one by one, and then he got back into the driver's seat and turned the car around, heading for Rebecca's house. Rebecca again pulled out her phone and sent a quick text to her mom, asking if they could give Sean and her some privacy and quiet when they arrived.

She put her phone away and tugged Sean closer to her as Dennis navigated what little traffic was on the road. His eyes kept seeking out Sean's in the rearview mirror, but his son kept his gaze averted. As they waited at a stop light, Rebecca met Dennis's searching gaze next, sending him an understanding look. I'll call you, she mouthed silently, and Dennis nodded minutely.

“Paralyzed” Master List

Arriving at the Summers' residence, Dennis hopped out and opened the back door for them. Sean seemed reluctant to move from Rebecca's side, so she whispered, "It's all right, I'll be right here with you the whole time." He shuddered and climbed out from the vehicle, again avoiding his dad's scrutiny by keeping his head down. But Dennis pulled Sean into a crushing hug, whispering to him, "I love you so much, I hope you know that, Son." Sean choked on a breath, his face twisted in dismay. Rebecca stood from the car and put a hand on Sean's back. Dennis released Sean and said in a rough voice, "Call me when you feel up to it, Bud," then gave Rebecca a meaningful glance and got back in the car. Rebecca nodded once and put her arm around Sean again, drawing him towards the front door. Finding it unlocked, she stepped inside with him still leaning on her slightly. She breathed a silent sigh of relief when she saw that none of her family were around, and she shut the front door behind them and led Sean towards her room, passing her brother's closed door in the hallway. Shutting her door behind them, she propelled him gently towards her bed. "Wait," he squeaked softly, and she stopped, looking up at him expectantly. He shrank back a bit, but still said in a whisper, "The bathroom, please." Rebecca nodded in understanding and strode down the hall with him, disengaging her arms from him at the bathroom doorway.

Sean's face looked momentarily panicked. "Don't go anywhere?" he pleaded in a low voice. "Don't worry, I'll be right here, I promise," she soothed, and he nodded in relief as she shut the door.

She waited in the hallway until she heard the door open again, and put a steadying arm back around Sean's waist as they headed back into her bedroom. She eased him down onto the bed, pulling his shoes off for him, and took his face in her hands. "Are you hungry at all? Thirsty?" she searched his face. When he shook his head, she nodded and curled into his side as he laid down. Pulling the blankets up over them, she put both arms around him and pressed a kiss to his forehead. "You're welcome to stay as long as you want, love," she whispered. "You don't have to go anywhere, do anything you're not ready for yet." Sean's body shivered slightly as he released a deep sigh, and his eyes drifted closed. She gently carded her fingers through his hair, over and over, for long moments as the shivering subsided and she could hear his breathing get slower and deeper. Once she was absolutely positive he was sleeping deeply, she rolled slightly away and spent quite awhile texting Dennis back and forth, answering his questions and making plans to have Sean meet up at the new place when he was ready for it. She told Dennis she would take good care of him, and that she hoped Dennis would be all right after all that had happened. Dennis assured her he would, and wished her a good night, after thanking her multiple times.

Rebecca gave an involuntary sigh of relief knowing everything pressing was handled. A huge yawn overtook her and she stretched languidly, careful not to disturb Sean as he slept. She debated whether to leave him for a few moments, deciding to leave her door ajar in case he woke. She rose and took her own shoes off, leaving them next to Sean's, and replaced them with her favorite slippers before padding down the hall to the restroom. Then she stepped quietly out into the living room, still not seeing anyone about, not even the family dog. Wow, they really took what I said to heart, she thought. Ascending the stairs softly, she knocked quietly on her parents' door, unsure whether they were even home. Her mother opened the door quickly, questions obviously written on her face, but remaining silent as Rebecca fell into her embrace with a soul-weary sigh. Her father came up next to them and put his arms around both of them.

Rebecca led them both downstairs as she desperately needed something to drink, and a snack, and they both listened as she spoke to them in a hushed voice about the evening's events. Both Bonnie and Robert agreed that Sean could stay as long as he wanted to, and Rebecca felt grateful for that. Rebecca asked about Danny's whereabouts, and they told her that her brother was having an impromptu sleepover with a friend. "This sounded serious, so we thought it would be for the best," Robert said quietly. "Thanks, Dad," Rebecca murmured as she munched on some crackers.

She excused herself not long after, saying she should get back to her room. Both of her parents wrapped her in a bear hug and wished her a good night. With a small smile, she slipped down the hall and back into her room, closing the door softly behind her. Sean still slumbered on, a frown creasing his features as he slept. Rebecca changed into pajamas and crawled in next to him, careful not to disturb him as she got comfortable for the night.

#sean & rebecca #sean #paralyzed #don’t move #my oc #tw: panic attack #tw: anxiety attack #tw: ptsd #ptsd recovery #ptsd #tw: flashback #tw: anxiety #tw: knife #anxietyawareness #panic #emotional whump #emotional h/c #randomwrites

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agl03 · 6 years

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Would you do a breakdown of the Hypable article?

Hi Anon,

Haven’t done of of these for a bit but here you go :D

An unusual opening

If last week’s 100th episode of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ended in way we’ve never seen, “Principia” takes the opposite approach by giving us a rather unusual beginning. Don’t look for similar warm fuzzies, though; the opening scene of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 5×13 is also about as thematically distant from FitzSimmons’ sunlit nuptials as it’s possible to get.

But the scene does has an equal (if very different) impact on the story going forward, in ways that become eerily clear as the episode unfolds.

Sassy answer: The lighting budget was all burned on the Wedding Scene and it was totally worth it.

I’m going with something really awful is happening to someone we might know from the past. I’m still banking on seeing Hydra in some shape or form here shortly.

Whatever this horrible thing is will play a huge role in what is to come. It could be anything from Mad Science to a crazy reveal.

I think the vein I am picturing it to be in is AIDA’s ‘upgrading’ the superior in ick and creepy factors.

Elena gets real

Having dealt with the initial horror and first steps toward recovery, “Principia” allows (/forces) Elena into the next stage of her new life. And guys? It sucks.

Between her new physical reality, the pressure of her awful foreknowledge, and her unnatural state of enforced stillness, Elena has some crap to work through in Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 5×13. And work through it she does, in a set of scenes that are equal parts emotional torture and catharsis. It’s tough stuff, and Natalia Cordova-Buckley handles it beautifully.

And if you weren’t in love with Mack before…

Mack is going to be the super supportive and wonderful boyfriend taking care of her and trying to help her heal.

Elena is dealing with a massive weight on her shoulders as the blip says and I think its going to be exactly as advertised. Have tissues on hand.

Looking to get some insight as to what she is going to do with the knowledge she got from her Loop Counterpart.

Also looking for Mack to not hold back when he comes across those goons again.

Feartown funtimes

Remember the rather inexplicable fear-dimension that sprang up to power the engine of last week’s episode? (Of course you do, it hasn’t even been a week.) Well, if you were concerned that the writers of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.might miss the opportunity to viscerally terrify their characters in later episodes, fear not. This dimensional rift is exactly as unstable as the story requires, allowing for terror-leakage whenever it is most needed.

But the reaction is no less unnerving for all that that the plot device is a bit transparent. Let’s just say that it’s not only Phil who gets to face a deeply-buried and strangely-embodied scare in Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 5×13.

The band aid starts to fail. It was already known from the promo that Deke gets attacked by a Kree.

I believe the Deke’s mother is going to be like Mike was with Coulson, a familiar face that will manifest a dark fear. Possibly try to lead him or someone else into a trap.

I am also expecting to at the very least get a hint as to how Fitzsimmons fear of losing each other will manifest.

Top Pick is The Doctor, but if they pull another surprise guest star on us Ward or AIDA could take that form as well.

Everything old is new again (again)

Season 5 of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. has been gradually seeding in material from the show’s earliest days, and “Principia” pursues that trend even further. Another familiar face returns to haunt the team (and deal with his own ghosts) while the miracle element gravitonium and a very, very old (one might say OG) antagonist slip back into the center of the scene.

But there’s a new light cast on old stories, a new angle to what we already know. It’s not just S.H.I.E.L.D. that may be passing the torch to a new generation; fresh young faces on every side are rising to challenge what came before them… and boy, do they smell blood in the water.

HELLO HYDRA!!!!! If you can’t tell I”m going down with the ship on that one too here. Hale is somehow tangled up with them and Ruby’s classes could even be taught by them.

Look for a familiar baddie to have an apprentice of their own to mirror Coulson/Daisy.

With Young Von Strucker in 15 I am watching for Werner to return as well. Maybe ready to embrace his father’s legacy or enact some revenge against Shield.

QUINN!!!! It’s been a long time since he was last even mentioned but also had one of those open stories. The finale in Season 1 had him making off with the Gravitonium. He was in with Hydra and that likely didn’t end well, especially if they wanted the Gravitonium for their own nefarious purposes. He could also be considered one of the original villains of the show.

Straight-up trolls

Don’t quite know what to do with the information that FitzSimmons are married, and Deke is their grandson? Well, the Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.writers do. And what they do could be best described as a dance of utterly shameless trolling.

With all three characters involved completely oblivious to their familial status, Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 5×13 lets gleefully loose with the winks, nods, puns, and ironies. Deke stays behind in the Lighthouse with Simmons and Fitz, and while I can assure you that “Principia” does this work for a purpose, a big part of that purpose is to send viewer’s heads crashing toward their desks.

But don’t let my tone deceive you — this comedy of errors might be the brightest spot of story in the whole damned season!

This has to be one of the things I’m most excited about seeing. Its been fun going back and looking at all the clues they dropped and I’m excited to see what they do when they can be so ‘blatant’ about it.

Deke staying behind with Fitzsimmons will be more than comic relief as they troll everyone. Right now I’m thinking there is some sort of reveal that comes from him being with them that is important for future episodes.

This could be at least one of them figures it out (early money is on Deke figuring it out first and not knowing what to do with that info).

They all figure it out.

It somehow plays into Fitzsimmons fear for 14 (see my Crazy Theory on how that plays out).

Fitzsimmons have to save their future Grandkid

Deke reveals something about the end of the world or something he grew up on that has an ah ha moment for Fitzsimmons and puts some pieces together.

Overall prediction: Lot’s of family feels all around.

#aos spoilers #aos speculation #ask agl03 #agents of shield

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martinfzimmerman · 7 years

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Are tech stocks in danger?

If you don't remember the speculative frenzy behind the dot.com bubble in the late 1990s, it is hard to convey the scale of what happened.

The sheer excitement as technology stock valuations spiralled was a wonder to behold. Companies popped up out of nowhere and were suddenly valued at billions, even if they hadn't made a cent. Share prices doubled, tripled and quadrupled in months or in some cases weeks. The technology-focused Nasdaq index quintupled from around 1,000 points in 1995 to more than 5,000 in March 2000.

The tech bubble infected people who had never even considered investing before. Taxi drivers were dishing out share tips, I remember a London cabbie telling me how his stake in fashion retail website Boo.com was going to fund his retirement.

UK fund manager Tony Dye became known as "Dr Doom" for shunning internet stocks, which he considered overvalued and was duly sacked in February 2000. The following month, the bubble burst. Dr Doom had called it right, just too early.

The crash wiped 50 per cent off global stock markets after investors lost their nerve and venture capital dried up.

The dot.com boom and bust was a shocking event, dwarfed only by the financial crisis of 2008. Now people fear it could be happening all over again. So are we heading for another dot.com bomb and should you run for cover?

Look back at 2000 and the fallout was huge. In the US, the Nasdaq technology index tumbled from a high of 5,132 in March 2000 to barely 2,300 in late December. Companies worth billions at their initial public offering (IPO) were suddenly worth nothing at all. US dot.com top dog Pets.com was put down, losing US$300 million of venture capital. Boo.com burned through $135m in 18 months before going bankrupt (taking my cabbie's retirement dreams with it). Online retailer Amazon's stock plunged from $107 to just $7, but it survived, as did eBay. More than $1 trillion was wiped off global stock values. Within a year, the world was in recession.

Tech is back

It took the best part of a year for the dot.com bubble to deflate, and many more years before the recovery properly set in, but it got there in the end. The Nasdaq is now booming again, with a total return of 125 per cent over the past five years. It has beaten its all-time high more than 20 times this year to stand at 6,247 at time of writing.

Amazon stock hit $1,000 in May, up 44 per cent in the past 12 months alone. If you had invested $10,000 a decade ago, you would have $160,000 today.

This is making analysts increasingly suspicious. Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warned in May of a speculative frenzy as the sector hit highs last seen during 2000, warning that "we are in the very early stages of an overshoot".

Another Dr Doom, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, has warned that the meteoric rise of Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google, collectively known as the FANG stocks, has left markets dangerously overvalued and share prices could fall 40 per cent from here.

The bull market has been running for more than eight years but the show is being kept on the road by a small number of US-listed technology behemoths. The FANG stocks plus Microsoft are responsible for almost 40 per cent of the gain in the S&P 500 Index in 2017.

They have added a total of $600 billion of market capitalisation this year, the equivalent GDP of Hong Kong and South Africa combined

News that Jeff Bezos, who is now worth almost $80bn and the world's second wealthiest person behind Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, sold one million Amazon shares worth $941m in May, which added to the climate of fear.

Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at foreign exchange specialists Forex.com, warns that bull runs like this have a habit of ending abruptly. "If technology falls, it will undermine investor confidence and drag almost every major global index lower."

Then on June 9, the long-feared sell-off began, sparked by Goldman Sachs' chief investment officer Robert Bouroujerdi's warnings about inflated tech valuations. Apple's shares fell 4 per cent, knocking more than $30bn from the market cap of the world's most valuable company. Google parent Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon each fell 3 per cent, while Microsoft dipped 2 per cent.

There was a brief panic - then markets settled, and started climbing again. Mr Razaqzada says the question now is whether this is the start of the correction, or merely a pause in what remains a strong bullish trend. "If we see further breakdown of support levels things could get ugly really quickly. So far, it has held up well."

Beware the bandwagon

Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, which has offices in the UAE, warns that tech stock latecomers are vulnerable to a slowdown or dip. "However, those rushing to proclaim the demise of the tech rally need to be careful - there will be plenty of dip buyers out there who have been waiting for a pullback," he says.

That is exactly what happened after the June 9 stumble. "Buyers rushed in to defend the Nasdaq 100 lows around 5640 which then quickly rebounded above 6000 to hit today's highs."

Peter Garnry, head of quantitative strategies at Saxo Bank, does not expect a technology crash. "You need a trigger and currently it's not there."

The sector has outperformed year-to-date and looks overextended on the charts, but there is positive news too. "The earnings momentum is there and the alternatives are unattractive for long-term investors. As a result, the rotation into technology stocks remains strong."

Calling a market crash is near impossible at any time and in this case you would be betting against strong momentum in biotechnology company share prices and earnings, as well as healthy investor inflows, Mr Garnry says. "It doesn't look like a winning bet to me."

The big technology stocks are also making big money, so their forward valuations look far from stretched. "Alphabet trades at only a small premium to the S&P 500, whereas Apple is actually trading at 25 per cent discount," he adds.

Facebook may trade at a 20 per cent premium but that can be justified by forecast revenue growth of 40 per cent over the next 12 months, against 5 per cent across the S&P500.

Mr Garnry notes that Amazon is trading at 50 per cent premium to the wider market and is in danger of having bubble-like valuations: "However, the key issue is that the alternatives to technology are not that attractive as most other stock market sectors and industries have lower growth. "Government bonds offer around 1 per cent and investment-grade corporate bonds offer around 2 per cent. So what's the alternative?"

Though he admits some parts of the technology sector could suffer a setback. "Cloud-based companies, IT security and software companies are trading at very high multiples which may likely not be sustainable if we see a slowdown in the global economy."

Growth story

Tom Stevenson, investment director for personal investing at Fidelity International, says there are worrying parallels with the original dot.com bubble. "Nasdaq is outperforming the broader market, just as it did in 1999. Also, growth is concentrated in a narrow group of companies, a typical sign that we are near the top of the market."

The dot.com bubble saw massively over-subscribed IPOs, similar to what we are seeing today. "Investors have lost interest in traditional valuation metrics," says Mr Stevenson. "Witness Snapchat's recent flotation, and subsequent volatility. Netflix combines strong subscriber growth with big cash outflows."

However, Mr Stevenson sees notable differences too. "The euphoria of 1999 is almost wholly absent. Today's enthusiasm for technology stocks is not really rose-tinted optimism but a grudging belief that in a sluggish world the sector is one of the few places that investors can find reliable growth."

Another key difference is that in the 1990s, there were just 300 million internet users. Today, there are more than three billion, 10 times the amount, many of whom could not live without their smartphone. The big players are making huge sums of money, for example, Apple posted quarterly revenue of $52.9bn in the three months to April 1 this year. In its latest quarter, Alphabet's revenues totalled $24.75bn.

Valuations are high but nothing like the 1990s. "Apple trades at around 17 times earnings, which is close to fair value whereas during the bubble, Oracle, for example, traded at 140 times earnings. It lost 86 per cent of its value in the crash. Disruptive technologies deserve high valuations."

Technology companies can enjoy massive growth while working through relatively small amounts of capital. "It took hotel chain Marriott 70 years to get to 700,000 rooms. Airbnb has 1.5m in just seven years," Mr Stevenson adds.

Finally, Mr Stevenson says there is little of the froth that we saw last time round. "The mood music is more subdued and sceptical than 17 years ago. Tech provides growth in a low-growth world."

Global stock markets are nearing exhaustion after a lengthy bull run and it is clearly a concern that investors are effectively gambling on the fortunes of just five major companies: Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Netflix.

This is not the time to throw large sums into the market, expecting it to repeat its magic. However, calling a crash is a thankless task. Even if you are right, you are likely to get the timing wrong.

The key is to make sure you are fully diversified, by spreading your investments between stocks, cash, bonds, property and other assets, and only invest in shares you will not need for at least five or 10 years.

Technology stocks could bomb again, but just like last time, they will also bounce back.

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from Personal Finance RSS feed - The National http://www.thenational.ae/business/personal-finance/are-tech-stocks-in-danger

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