#Victorian election

[do-you-have-a-flag]

when u are getting big wins in the local election but u have covid so you can't be in the party room

#auspol #vic election #victorian election

[axvoter]

Blatantly Partisan Party Reviews: 2022 Victorian State Edition

Victoria goes to the polls on 26 November and there is a record number of candidates for both houses of the state parliament, so here I am to review the assortment of micro-parties crowding the ballot.

I reviewed the 2014 and 2018 state elections, and although I no longer live in Victoria, I think of Melbourne as home and some of this year’s micros are truly cooked, so I could not resist firing up the blog.

There is another reason I am keen to write these reviews. Victoria still uses anti-democratic Group Ticket Voting (GTV) above the line for the Legislative Council (upper house). To ensure your preferences go where you want them to go, you must vote below the line.

What is Group Ticket Voting? It is where a party registers its list of preferences—their “group ticket”. If you vote above the line on the big Legislative Council ballot, your preferences are distributed as per the group ticket of the party for which you voted 1. Unlike when voting for the Senate, any other preferences you mark above the line will be ignored.

This does not, and cannot, represent the will of voters. GTV means that 100% of preferences flow in the same direction; in reality, when people distribute their own preferences, even the most disciplined and organised campaign struggles to get more than 80% of voters for one party to nominate the same second preference, never mind third or subsequent preferences. GTV turns each election for the upper house into a lottery, and it doesn’t confer much long-term benefit upon the micro-parties that it elects either because, even if they gain supporters during their term, they find it very difficult to draw a winning ticket two elections in a row.

Moreover, few parties submit GTVs that are based on ideology alone and can be assumed to reflect the typical preferences of their voters. Most parties do deals with each other for favourable preferences. A party that arranges especially good deals can snag preferences from voters across the spectrum—almost all of whom do not know their preference is going there, nor would approve of it. This allows a party to snowball their way past rivals with much greater support to win a seat. A party with, say, 9% of the vote in one region can miss out on a seat to a party with only 2% because that latter party harvested preferences effectively. If you want to read more about this abysmal system, Antony Green and Ben Raue have both gone into detail. Victoria's GTVs were released yesterday, and Ben has written a piece today explaining the general trends that emerge from them.

At federal level, and in every other state, GTV has been abolished and better systems implemented that give voters control over their preferences. Every federal election since 2016 has been run under a system where voters specify their own preferences above the line. Western Australia ran the most recent state election with GTVs: last year, the Daylight Saving Party won a Legislative Council seat for Mining & Pastoral despite polling a grand total of 98 primary votes in that region. This absurdity prompted WA to abolish the system. Victoria’s parliament, however, has clung to GTV despite having plenty of opportunity for reform. This failure should shame the parliament and its politicians—and Kevin Bonham is doing his best to do so in his summary of party policies about GTV.

There is a simple way to avoid your preferences going on a magical mystery tour and potentially electing parties you dislike: VOTE BELOW THE LINE. This is extremely easy: you just need to give at least 5 preferences to individuals below the line. Any vote with fewer preferences below the line is not counted; you must preference at least 1–5. You can then give as many more preferences as you want. If you only want to give 5, give 5. If you want to preference everybody, preference everybody. It is entirely up to you and your vote will only go to the individuals to whom you allocate preferences, in the order you allocated them. Do not repeat or skip a number. If you stop preferencing at any point after 5, your vote exhausts at that point and plays no further part in the election. I encourage you to preference as far as possible because it maximises the power of your vote.

Group Ticket Voting only applies for the Legislative Council (the upper house, which is the house of review) on its big ballot with the thick line. There is no Group Ticket Voting for the Legislative Assembly (the lower house, where government is formed), and when voting for the Assembly you must number all squares without repeating or skipping a number.

My first reviews will be posted later today. They reflect my own biases as a green democratic socialist. I am not, nor have I ever been, a member of any political party. As per usual, I will not review Labor, the Liberal/National coalition, or the Greens, because the sort of person interested in these reviews likely already has established opinions about those parties. I don’t review One Nation federally but I might tack them on at the end this year if I have the time. I am aiming to review every other party. Let’s go!

Every review will end with my recommendation of how favourably to preference a party. This is the recommendation system I will be using:

Good preference: a party with a positive overall platform that has few or no significant flaws for the left-wing voter.

Decent preference: a party with a generally positive overall platform but some reservations; or, a single-issue party with a good objective but by definition too limited in their scope to encompass the fullness of parliamentary business.

Middling preference: a party with a balance of positive and negative qualities, or a party with a decent platform undermined by a notably terrible policy or characteristic.

Weak or no preference: a party with more negatives than positives. In the Legislative Assembly, you must number all squares, and these parties should receive as bad a preference as possible. In the Legislative Council, you should vote below the line and either give this party a poor preference or let your vote exhaust before reaching it. I recommend preferencing fully, but you may wish to stop rather than express preferences between varying gradations of undesirability.

This schema is flexible; I may, for instance, suggest a “middling to decent preference”.

#auspol #vicvotes #vicvotes22 #vicvotes2022 #springst #Victorian election #Victoria #Election 2022 #Melbourne #voting #vote below the line #below the line #above the line #group ticket voting #group voting tickets #gtv #gvt

[actualhumancryptid]

Anthony Green now saying no path to victory for Victorian Liberals*.

And my seat might go Greens.

Happiness.

*Liberals in Australia means conservative. Yes I know it’s dumb

#victorian election #auspol

[ktheqw]

Waiting

I arrive early, come back later.

When I arrive later, a certain look.

Sitting and waiting on the wooden seat.

Shaded by the Plain tree, leg hair moves in the wind.

People watching; odds and ends on election day.

A crow talks shit. Maybe it's a pissed off Cockatoo; no, it's a crow perched on the sign Drinking Water.

Waiting and watching, everything hurts from the hard seat.

Learning about people and listening to random conversations.

The crow is a squeaky wheel; the cloud cover dims the soft light.

The odd looks continue, and my finger keeps touching the keys.

Saturday morning, in the madness bursting with cars, and a shit Council incapable of foresight.

On election day, a day we should be grateful for, I wonder about this two-faced place.

#election day #victorian election #waiting #poetry on tumblr #poets and poetry #candkwords #plain tree #crow #people watching #random conversations #two faced #gippsland poets #australian poetry #spilled poetry #original poetry #thoughts in words

[everything-anything3345]

I must say as an American observer of the Australian state election in Victoria that Daniel Andrews winning a 3rd term as Premier is gravelly disappointing. Labor winning majority government is gravelly disappointing and disdainful. The Greens sweeping into 3 districts is extremely terrible. A environmental wacko political party. Bad news for the people of Victoria all around. And that's the way I see it.

#victorian election #november 26 #november 2022 #dan andrews #still there #unfortunately

[communistpropagandalf]

#notafakeheadline #victorian election #liberal party #the guardian

[fictionadventurer]

The Shocking Redemption Arc of Chester Arthur

To my great pleasure, I get to tell you about Chester A. Arthur. If you don’t know his story, that’s a surprising statement, because most people don’t even recognize his name as one of the presidents. That’s a crying shame, because this guy has the most fascinating character arc of any president I’ve come across so far. He entered the presidency as a despicable, corrupt, conniving political lackey, and left it as--

Well, I’d best get on with the story.

Chester Arthur started out as an idealist. He was the son of an abolitionist Baptist minister, and though he dropped the religion in adulthood, he remained devoted to abolishing slavery. He became a lawyer with a New York firm that argued several civil rights case, and he rose to fame in 1854 when he served as the defense attorney for Elizabeth Jennings, the Northern version of Rosa Parks. Arthur’s victory in her case led to the desegregation of New York City’s public transportation.

During the Civil War, Arthur got an appointment as New York’s quartermaster general. After the war, Arthur returned to civilian life and became a Republican “party man” who worked behind the scenes to draw in voters, funding, and supporters. He and his wife Ellen (called Nell) both loved the finer things in life, which drove Arthur to do whatever he could to gain fame, wealth, and social status.

This is where I need to explain the spoils system. For the first hundred-plus years of American politics, all federal positions were filled by appointment. When a new president came into office, he could award government positions to his supporters--"to the victor go the spoils". Federal employees were required to donate money to the ruling party. There were no requirements for education or relevant experience. Any job could be filled by anyone with the right connections. If you think that sounds like a breeding ground for corruption and cronyism, you’d be absolutely right. By the 1870s, the system was getting extremely corrupt, and there was a growing push for reform.

But not by Chester Arthur. He owed his career to the spoils system. Through his work in the party, he became the right-hand man of Roscoe Conkling, New York’s senior senator and the state’s “political boss”. Conkling was a flamboyant showman, a magnetic politician, and a ruthless man. He had been a major supporter of Ulysses S. Grant’s presidential campaign, so Grant gave Conkling control over all the federal appointments in New York. Conkling used his power to fill positions with his friends and supporters, and he was brutal in attacking anyone who got in his way.

Because Chester Arthur was Conkling’s most loyal supporter, he got the best federal job in the country—Controller of the Port of New York. Before income tax, around 60-70% of federal funds came from the tariffs at this one port. The controller got a salary similar to the president’s, plus he was able to take a percentage of all the fines they levied. At the height of his power, Chester Arthur made $50,000 a year, which is a lot when the average skilled worker at the time made $500. (A rough estimate puts his salary at $1.3 million in today’s dollars.)

Arthur was living the high life. He racked up huge tailor bills. He had a gorgeously furnished house. His job allowed him to force his employees to donate a percentage of their salary to the Republican Party, which gave him even more power within the political machine. He bought huge amounts of wine and cigars that he handed out to people he was wining and dining for the good of the party. His wife resented that he was rarely home because of his political work, but Arthur loved the machine too much to stop.

After his 1876 election, President Rutherford B. Hayes desperately tried to reform the spoils system, but was blocked every step of the way by Roscoe Conkling. Finally, in 1878, Hayes managed to remove Arthur from his position as port controller, under suspicion of corruption, which allowed Arthur to spend more time working for New York’s political machine.

In January of 1880, Arthur was in Albany working for a political campaign when his wife caught pneumonia. By the time Arthur got home, Nell had fallen into a coma, and he wasn’t able to speak with her before she died. He felt guilty over her death, and especially the lack of closure caused by his devotion to politics. But instead of changing his ways, Arthur moved in with Conkling and became more devoted to politics than ever.

Which brings us to the 1880 Republican Convention. The Republican Party was split between two warring factions—the Stalwarts like Conkling who wanted to keep things the way they were, and the Half-Breeds who wanted civil service reform. President Hayes refused to seek re-election (partly because Conkling had made his life miserable) so these two factions somehow had to agree on a new candidate. Conkling supported a third term for Ulysses S. Grant. The Half-Breeds supported James G. Blaine of Maine—who happened to be Conkling’s mortal enemy.

James Garfield was there to nominate John Sherman—the Secretary of the Treasury and the younger brother of the famous Civil War general—and I can’t go any further in this story before I tell you a little bit about him. James Garfield is one of the most ridiculous overachievers in the realm of American politics. He was born into a dirt-poor farming family (he’s the last president ever to have been born in a log cabin). At sixteen, he left home to work on a canal boat, but quit after he nearly drowned, and his mother and brother scraped up enough money for him to go to school. His first year, he paid for his tuition by working as a school janitor. His second year, the school hired him to teach six classes (while he was still a student!) and then added two more because of how popular he was. By the time he was twenty-six, he was president of that same school. He became a lawyer and was elected to Ohio’s state legislature. During the Civil War, he became the youngest person to earn the rank of general. While fighting in the Civil War, his friends put his name in as a candidate for the US House of Representatives, and Garfield won even though he refused to campaign. He then served several terms in the House, where he became popular, but he refused to seek the presidency, because he’d watched several friends become warped by their presidential ambitions.

At the 1880 Republican Convention, Garfield was the more popular Ohio candidate, but insisted he was there only to nominate Sherman. At one point in his nominating speech, Garfield asked the audience, “Now, gentleman, what do we want?” To Garfield’s horror, one man shouted, “We want Garfield!”

Garfield remained loyal in nominating Sherman, but the spark had been lit. The voting went round after round after round for two days, with the votes being split between Grant, Blaine, and Sherman, with no one getting enough to win the nomination. Garfield got one vote in the third round. In the thirty-fourth round, Garfield suddenly got seventeen votes. Garfield stood to protest, saying no one had a right to vote for him since he hadn't consented, but the president of the convention--who was secretly thrilled because he liked Garfield more than any of the other candidates--told Garfield to sit down.

By the thirty-sixth vote, Garfield had won the nomination.

Now they had to choose a vice president. Several of the delegates got the idea to throw a bone to Roscoe Conkling. He was furious that Grant had lost the nomination, and he was vindictive. Conkling controlled New York’s political machine, so without him, the Republicans would lose New York, and without New York, they’d lose the election. He had to be placated. So the delegates nominated Chester Arthur, his right-hand man, as vice president.

Conkling told Arthur to refuse the nomination, but Arthur accepted, saying it was a greater honor than he had ever hoped to achieve. That's putting it mildly. The only position he’d ever held was port controller, and he’d been removed from that. Plenty of people thought nominating him was a horrible idea—a man like Chester Arthur only one step away from the presidency? But other people thought it was a shrewd political move—it would placate Conkling’s faction of the party, and Garfield was young and healthy and would rule in a time of peace. It wasn’t like there was any chance he’d die in office.

After Garfield was elected, Arthur immediately started causing problems. He all but openly boasted of buying votes in the election—which was not a great look when it had been a close race. He was completely on Conkling’s side in his war against Garfield. After Garfield appointed Levi Morton, a Stalwart, as Secretary of the Navy, Conkling sent Arthur and another lackey to drag Morton out of his sickbed--forcing him to drink a bracing mixture of quinine and brandy--and bring him to Conkling’s house to get chewed out, which caused Morton to resign. Conkling forced another Stalwart Cabinet nominee to resign on inauguration day.

Then Conkling went to war over the federal appointments. At first, Garfield placated him, appointing several of Conkling’s candidates. But then Garfield nominated Judge Robertson as Port Controller of New York Harbor. Conkling was livid. That was the prime federal position, a major source of Conkling’s power in the party, and Robertson was one of Conkling’s political enemies. In Conkling’s mind, Garfield had stabbed him in the back. Arthur agreed, and openly bad-mouthed the president to the press.

Conkling and the other New York senator resigned their Senate seats in protest—a dramatic political move. In those days, state legislatures voted for senators, and Conkling believed that since he controlled so many New York politicians, they’d easily get re-elected to their old seats. Unfortunately, the legislature was sick of being under Conkling’s thumb. The election became a drawn-out battle, and Chester Arthur went to Albany to help Conkling in his campaign.

While he was there, the unthinkable happened. On July 2, 1881, James Garfield was shot at a train station by Charles Guiteau, an insane office-seeker. Guiteau had come to the White House every day for months seeking an appointment under the spoils system. When that failed, he decided God wanted him to get Garfield out of the way so the spoils system could continue. After he shot the president, Giteau shouted, “I am a Stalwart, and Arthur will be president!”

As you can imagine, that made things really bad for Arthur. He’d just spent months fighting the president tooth and nail, and the assassin had mentioned his name. Plenty of people thought Arthur had something to do with the shooting. He and Conkling both needed police details to protect them from lynch mobs.

Arthur didn’t want to be president; in his mind, vice president was the perfect job—a position with a lot of political leverage, but no responsibility. He went to the White House hoping to convince Garfield that he had nothing to do with the shooting, but the doctors wouldn’t let him in the room. He managed to speak to the First Lady, where he got choked up with emotion and was observed to be in tears. A reporter later found him in the house where he was staying in Washington, and noted he'd obviously been weeping.

To Arthur’s relief, Garfield seemed to get better. The bullet had missed his spinal cord and all his major organs. If he’d been left alone, Garfield would have made a complete recovery. Unfortunately, his doctors repeatedly prodded the bullet wound with unsterilized instruments, and Garfield fell victim to a massive infection. He lingered for months, slowly starving and rotting to death.

Through all this, Arthur stayed in New York and refused to take up presidential duties; with so many people accusing him of the assassination, he didn’t want to make it look like he was preparing to usurp the throne.

It eventually became clear that the assassin had acted alone, which laid the rumors to rest, but no one wanted Arthur to be president. James Garfield had been a man of the people. The working class considered him one of their own, proof that anyone could rise from poverty and become president. He was an idealist, a champion of civil rights, a family man who lived modestly. For the first time since the Civil War, a president had been supported by both the north and the south, and the country had come together in grief. Chester Arthur was Garfield’s exact opposite—a conniving political lackey who’d become a millionaire through corruption.

James Garfield died on September 19th. To the American people, it looked like their worst nightmare had come true. Conkling’s lackey was in the White House, and now Conkling would rule the nation the same way he’d ruled New York.

Yet, to everyone’s surprise, President Chester Arthur became a completely different man. In one of his first speeches, he listed civil service reform as one of his top priorities—a shocking move for a man who’d become president through the spoils system. Soon after Arthur’s inauguration, Conkling demanded he name a new Controller of the Port of New York. Arthur angrily refused and called Conkling’s demand outrageous. Conkling stormed out in fury and never forgave Arthur. (Arthur did later risk his reputation to nominate Conkling for the Supreme Court, but Conkling, ever petty, refused the position.)

Arthur didn’t have a complete personality transplant. He still lived lavishly, hosting lots of state dinners. He still preferred the social duties of the presidency to actual government work, and he was a hopeless procrastinator. Always fastidious, Arthur refused to move in to the rotting, rat-infested White House until they fixed up the dump, and he ran up extravagant bills during the remodel.

Yet, as a president, he was...respectable. He worked for African-American civil rights. He started a major process of rebuilding and reforming the outdated and corrupt navy. He did sign the Chinese Exclusion Act, but he had vetoed an earlier, harsher version and only signed a much-reduced one (that probably would have been voted in anyway if he’d vetoed it). That remodel of the White House, even if it ran over-budget, was long overdue.

Most shocking of all was his unswerving devotion to civil service reform. He continued an investigation into a government postal scandal, even though everyone assumed he’d drop it. He voiced his continuing support for reform efforts. In 1883, Arthur signed the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act. As written, the act required only 10% of federal jobs to be assigned based on merit, and even that required the president to take action to enforce it. People assumed that Arthur would sit back and do nothing, so the spoils system would remain in place. Yet Arthur immediately formed a commission to enact the reform, even appointing some of his old enemies. The man who’d benefited most from the spoils system became the one to finally destroy it.

How do we explain such a complete and sudden change? Part of it’s a matter of personality. If I can indulge in a bit of meta, Chester Arthur seems to be a textbook example of the sanguine-phlegmatic temperament—someone who wants to fit in with the crowd, to go with the flow. As a political lackey, this made him self-serving and amoral, but as president, the crowd he had to impress was the American people. After months of getting crucified in the press, with tons of articles saying what they didn’t want him to be, he’d have plenty of motivation to become what they did want him to be.

A more important motivation, though, was death. His wife’s death was likely the first shock that would make him step back and take stock of his political career. Garfield’s death had an even more profound influence on him. The spoils system had led a madman to murder a president in Arthur’s name; if anything could motivate a man to change the system, that would be it. Even more profound than that was his own death. Not long after entering the White House, Arthur was diagnosed with a fatal kidney disease. He hid the diagnosis during his term, but his actions in office were the actions of a man doomed to die, with a mind toward the legacy he’d leave behind.

Yet there’s another stranger, more mysterious influence that I’ve left to last because of how cool the story is. The day before his death, Chester Arthur—who’d become ashamed of his old life—asked a friend to burn the vast majority of his papers. Years later, among the papers that had been spared, his grandson uncovered a packet of twenty-three letters from a 31-year-old invalid named Julia Sand. Julia came from a family very interested in politics, and her illness meant that she spent a lot of time reading the newspapers, so she was familiar with Chester Arthur’s political career. In August of 1881, she sent Chester Arthur a letter that began, “The hours of Garfield's life are numbered—before this meets your eye, you may be President. The people are bowed in grief; but—do you realize it?--not so much because he is dying, as because you are his successor.” Over seven pages, Julia scolded Arthur for his corrupt ways, but assured him of her faith in his better nature, and urged him to reform. She sent letters over the next two years, full of encouragement and scolding and political advice. She called herself his “little dwarf”, because her lack of ties to him meant she could be completely honest with him.

There’s no evidence he ever answered her. But she did offer some rather specific political advice that he seems to have followed. And he did visit her once. In 1882, he stopped by her house in the presidential carriage, surprising her and her family (who had no idea she’d been writing to the president) with an hour-long visit. She seemed to grow more frustrated with his lack of answers after that, and no letter exists after 1883.

There’s no way to say what kind of effect the letters had on him. But amid all the turmoil after the assassination, it must have meant something to have one voice saying she believed in him. She was a voice from outside the Washington political machine, who could serve as a sort of conscience. The fact that those letters survived when so much else burned suggests he considered them worth saving.

No matter the reason, the truth remains that Arthur entered the presidency as an example of all that was dirty and loathsome in the political system, and he left it as a respectable man. In giving up his old ways, he sacrificed connections he’d spent years building. His old friends never forgave him, and his old opponents never quite trusted his reform, yet he did what he thought was right even if it meant he stood alone. In summing up his presidency, I don’t think I can do better than contemporary journalist Alexander McClure: “No man ever entered the Presidency so profoundly and widely distrusted as Chester Alan Arthur, and no one ever retired... more generally respected, alike by political friend and foe.” I think that deserves to be remembered.

#history is awesome #presidential talk #i apologize but i really can't see any way to cut this down #i like the detour into garfield's nomination #i can't cut conkling out any more than i have #i can't leave out his wife #i didn't even mention that he was washington's most eligible bachelor during his term but he remained faithful to her memory #or that his sister served as hostess at the white house and helped raise his daughter (who he protected from the press as best he could) #or that he did make a half-hearted attempt to seek re-election so people wouldn't think he was slinking off in disgrace #and there was some support for him #but he didn't mind at all when someone else was nominated because he was dealing with his kidney disease #and he died in 1886 #which means he had the shortest post-presidency life of anyone except james k. polk who died three months after leaving office #i did not come into last week thinking that by the end of it i'd have developed a minor specialization #in the presidency of a guy i knew only for his facial hair and his half-verse in the animaniacs song #i didn't even mention the facial hair! #go to wikipedia and see his glorious muttonchops! #say what you will about the victorians but they had wild facial hair game #but anyway here is the life story of my impeccably dressed trash panda son #who is put together on the outside and a mess on the inside #and still manages to maintain a certain dignity despite how pathetic he is #he's a mess of a human being but i love him your honor

[jay-wasreblogging]

🗣️🙏🗣️ CAMBODIA MENTIONED!! 🇰🇭🪷 WHAT THE FUCK IS A DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVERNMENT!??!! 🇰🇭🗣️ ARRGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 🗣️🗣️🪷🙏

#sorry i had to do it - also biking in CAMBODIA? 😭😂😂 I mean you can but you're better off on motorcycle #we had a protest recently at the Victorian Parliament (in Aus) against the lack of action against the authoritarian ruler of Cambodia #he handed power to his son after 30+ ruling which is INSANE but expected - the Australian gov is being pushed to act due to the relations #also also Australia and NZ are two countries that took in many MANY Cambodian refugees during the genocidal rule of Pol Pot so...yeah #my grandparents - uncles aunties - and parents left a country during it's time of a genocidal fascist ruler and now its an authoritarian one #i hope one day that we can all go back when its a gov thats ppl elected and actually wants the country and ppl to live happier lives #anyways im venting in here my bad - but yeah some fun info #sherlock & co #sherlock and co #liveblogging #sherlock #sherlock holmes #john watson #goalhanger podcasts

[natsolute]

2022 Victorian State Election

As the majority of the election comes to a close for the lower house-- only 9 seats found to be in doubt, which will be decided by the pre-poll and postal votes as they begin to be counted over the coming days, Daniel Andrews has secured a historic third term as Victorian Premier and leader of the Victorian Labor Party. This means that, unless interrupted by a resignation or retirement from Andrews, Victoria will have had an Andrews Labor government from 2014-2026.

This state election was widely seen as a complicated and uncertain one; as typical of Australian elections, widespread media narratives, particularly those posed by News Corp associated orgs, all presented a tight race, which was reinforced by several Liberal Party officials, including opposition leader Matthew Guy, who all spoke positively on the campaign and claimed that they held a clear chance at winning majority government. As the votes came in, however, this was shown to be not only inaccurate, but bordering on delusional-- to put it in the words of the Victoria Votes ABC panel: "The Liberal Party needs to hire a new pollster".

Despite polls and front-cover claims from the majority of Australian news organizations, and the perspective provided by the Victorian Liberals, there was, in fact, a further loss of popularity for the Liberals. As currently standing, it is likely that Labor will retain the number of seats they had prior to the election, at around double the Liberal National Coalition's seats.

Key Quotes of Tonight:

Richard Willingham: "it's a raw moment for Matthew Guy, but he would know his political career is essentially over."

Ellen Sandell: "This shows that the old two-party system is dying, [...] we're seeing Labor get elected on Greens preferences."

Ellen Sandell: "If you look at something like Northcote, if you look at the Green vote, plus the Socialist vote, we're actually over the Labor party, [...] and what this means is that now, the Labor party can't get elected in the inner-city without the Liberal vote."

Kos Samaras: "[Liberals] are possibly a political movement that no longer talks to a significant number of Victorians, full stop. Political parties come and go; it's a historical fact, and I think that the Liberal Party is pitching to a constituency that doesn't live in Victoria all that much."

Major Key Points

The LNP vastly overestimated the presence of anti-Daniel Andrews sentiment in communities after COVID-19 lock-downs.

Matthew Guy will likely not remain Opposition leader for long; two consecutive losses as leader of the opposition will likely be enough to eject him from the position.

The results of the federal election provided an incredibly accurate prediction of how the Victorian State Election would result.

The LNP suffered greatly due to a combination of preferencing far-right candidates and preselecting ultra-conservative candidates for their own campaigns, which made them less appealing to voters.

While Victoria is broadly moving to the left (a ALP government with progressive values, an increasing Greens vote, etc.), voters are leaving the major parties either in the direction of groups such as the Victorian Greens or Victorian Socialists, or in the direction of "alt-right parties", as described by Victoria Votes panelists.

The ALP has largely benefited from their presentation of progressive politics, largely through the adoption of Greens policies; this has been regarded, as said by Ellen Sandell, as a victory for the Greens party.

My Analysis

The results of the Victorian 2022 State Election have compounded a set of pre-existing trends that I had begun to recognize in the federal election; some of these trends had been reported more widely, while others have been more personal evaluations of politics.

Firstly: Australians are rejecting the major parties; in the federal election, only a third of the country voted for an ALP government, yet that government was formed in the majority-- furthermore, these votes are going to three key categories:

Alt-right parties (One Nation, United Australia, DLP, etc.)

Teal independents

Progressive minor parties (Greens, Socialists, Animal Justice, etc.)

This trend, which was first present in the 2022 Federal election, mostly continued into the state election-- the state is now forming a stable majority ALP government currently at around 37.1% of the vote-- the opposition holds a total of 34.6%. The rest is split between an 11.2% Greens and 17.1% Other vote.

Within the Other vote, the first category of minority party voters are clearly present, with far-right parties such as Family First, Freedom Party Victoria, and Labour DLP getting a combined 5.7%.

The second category of minority party voters can be seen through the 6% Independent vote; interestingly, the number of independents in the lower house will have dropped by the end of this election, as two key rural independents were ousted by successful Nationals campaigns. Contrarily, however, traditionally Liberal electorates faced major competition from independents in the east, particularly in the case of Hawthorne, a state electorate within the federal electorate of Kooyong, where independent Melissa Lowe followed the example of Monique Ryan in the Federal Election and is poised to defeat John Pesutto, who was vying to retake the seat after having it taken by ALP member John Kennedy in 2018.

The third category of minority voters can be seen through the 11.2% Greens vote, 1.4% Victorian Socialist vote, and 2.3% Animal Justice vote, totalling to a 14.9% vote.

By looking at the state of Australian politics-- preferences by the LNP towards alt-right candidates, hyper-conservative News Corp biases, and rampaging issues of misogyny, racism, inequality, corruption, and mistrust in each consecutive government, whether it be at the state or federal level, it is easily identifiable how this escape from the major parties has occurred, and particularly through explorations of COVID-19 and the impact of it on working class families, as well as the manipulation of the pandemic by far-right groups to promote fascist ideologies, it is understandable how there has been an increase in the alt-right vote.

While the expansion of the fascist vote in Australia is concerning, there is a hopeful counter-movement rising in the establishment and rapid expansion of leftist organisations such as the Victorian Socialists; while the Victorian Socialists were unable to take any lower house seats, and it is too early to call whether they were successful in their move to disrupt far right politician Bernie Finn's place in the Western Metro legislative council ticket, it is important to acknowledge the success of what could soon be one of the most successful Australian socialist movements in decades.

Founded in 2018, and first running in the Victorian state election that same year, the Victorian Socialists are an expansion of various socialist groups in Australia, particularly the Socialist Alternative; while they lacked major presence during the 2018 election, they packed genuine influence in the 2022 Victorian election. As expressed by Ellen Sandell's previously mentioned quote, the Victorian Socialists were actually responsible for the election of a fourth Greens member through preferences, and if their fight to overtake Bernie Finn in the upper house is successful, they would be poised to put one of the first socialists in Australian government in 70 years.

In a similar vein of recognising the influence of progressivism in Victoria, it is important to acknowledge the key role that progressive movements such as the Victorian Greens have played in influencing the political attitudes of the Andrew's government, and how said part can be key in making the best out of a ALP majority government. Climate commitments and the commitment to re-establish the SEC, for instance, both directly link back to the policy proposals of the Victorian Greens. Additionally, here is hope from Greens members that, despite not succeeding in creating a hung parliament with the Greens holding balance of power, their influence could be key in further strengthening environmental policies, and I am personally hopeful that the influence of the Victorian Greens could result in the expansion and improvement of the current proposed SEC, which is highly flawed and needs major changes before it is able to succeed.

As stated by members of the ABC Victoria Votes panel, it is highly likely that the catastrophic losses experienced at both the 2018 and 2022 state elections by the LNP are symptoms not of a failure to recognise issues within their party's campaign, but rather a symptom of a party that is no longer relevant or necessary within the state.

For progressives, the ALP majority government is not the ideal outcome, but it is one that can be utilised to the advancement of leftist politics, and the success of the Andrews government, even if by an arguably thin margin, is proof that Victoria could remain safe from the far-right toxicity attempting to enter Australian politics through the actions of the LNP.

This post may be followed up on in the near future; for now though, I will leave my commentary as is, because I need sleep. I have just done 9 hours of volunteering for election day, followed by a 5 1/2 hour watch of the election results, and now, the 1 1/2 hours that it has taken to fully write this analysis. Thank you for reading, and I hope my analysis was one of value. :)

#vicpol #auspol #australia #australian politics #victorian politics #politics #elections #voting #democracy #leftism #socialism #victorian socialists #analysis #political analysis

[will-on-the-internet]

VICTORIANS- YOU HAVE TILL 8PM TONIGHT (8/11/2022) TO REGISTER TO VOTE!

#AUSTRALIANS BOOST #victorians this is important #if you’ve turned 18 since the fed election MAKE SURE YOU’RE ENROLLED! #will talks!

[axvoter]

Index to the Blatantly Partisan Party Reviews, 2022 Victorian state edition

This Saturday is election day in Victoria and a record number of candidates are standing. You could find yourself a little bewildered by the plethora of micro-parties on the ballot. You might have also heard about the controversies surrounding Group Ticket Voting, where Victoria is the last state to retain this anti-democratic system that allows parties to control some preferences.

I’ve written my blog entries to demystify these micro-parties and to explain how to ensure you stay in control of your own preferences. All entries are written from a left-wing perspective sympathetic to democratic socialism and green politics, so calibrate according to your own predilections. I make no pretension to false objectivity—that’s why these are blatantly partisan party reviews.

When you go to vote, you will receive two ballot papers. One will be a very large ballot for the Legislative Council (the upper house). The state is divided into eight regions that each elect five members of the Legislative Council. Every registered party is contesting every region. But the Legislative Council is the house of review; government is formed in the Legislative Assembly (the lower house). It contains 88 seats, and the number of candidates—both party-affiliated and independent—varies significantly between electorates.

On the small ballot for the Legislative Assembly, you must number every square. Do not skip or repeat a number. You are in full control of your preferences on this ballot: if your preferred candidate is not elected, your vote transfers at full value to your second preference, and so on. You might receive a How To Vote card from party campaigners: this is a suggestion only and you can fill out your preferences in any order you like.

On the large ballot for the Legislative Council, you can either vote above the line or below the line and I CANNOT EMPHASISE ENOUGH THAT YOU SHOULD VOTE BELOW THE LINE. If you vote above the line, you will receive the preferences lodged on a group ticket by the party for whom you vote 1. Any other preferences you mark will be ignored. Many of these group tickets are dodgy, decided by backroom deals, and none of them reflect what a party’s voters do when they can give preferences freely.

To vote below the line, you must number at least five candidates sequentially 1–5. You can then give as many more preferences as you want. You can stop at 5, or you can preference everyone, or do anything in between; it’s up to you. I recommend preferencing as far as you can express a meaningful preference, including between gradations of bad, as this maximises the power of your vote. I also recommend preparing your vote beforehand on a template such as that from ClueyVoter, and then copying this onto your ballot in the booth. If you want a more detailed discussion of this system and how to make best use of your vote, Kevin Bonham's got you covered.

This entry includes links to my reviews of each micro-party. Earlier today I posted a cheat sheet with my recommended preference categories. I do not review Labor, Liberal/National, Greens, or One Nation, as anyone interested enough to read this blog presumably already has opinions on those parties. I did float the prospect of reviewing the state branch of One Nation when I began the reviews, but their website still lacks meaningful content for the state election and it seems they aren’t presenting any Vic-specific platform, so it's same old guff.

Angry Victorians Party (covid conspiracists)

Animal Justice Party (animal rights)

Australia One (unregistered covid conspiracists endorsing six independents)

Companions and Pets Party (animal breeding and racing industry front)

Democratic Labour Party (Catholic conservatism)

Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party (tough-on-crime centrism)

Family First Victoria (Protestant extreme right)

Fiona Patten’s Reason Party (left-wing civil libertarian)

Freedom Party of Victoria (covid conspiracists)

Fusion: Science, Pirate, Secular, Climate Emergency (centre-left pragmatists; unregistered party endorsing three independents)

Health Australia Party (anti-vaxxers who were anti-vax before covid made it the trendy thing for conspiracists)

Indigenous–Aboriginal Party of Australia (Indigenous rights; unregistered party endorsing three independents)

Legalise Cannabis Victoria (single issue)

Liberal Democratic Party (far-right libertarians)

New Democrats (centre-right)

Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews (personal grudge and/or preference-harvesting front)

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (anti-environmentalist gun nuts)

Socialist Alliance (socialism; unregistered party endorsing four independents)

Sustainable Australia—Stop Overdevelopment/Corruption (anti-immigration NIMBYs)

Transport Matters Party (centre-left taxi industry front)

United Australia Party (covid grievance-mongers floating in a policy-free zone)

Victorian Socialists (socialism)

Overviews of independents for the Legislative Assembly and for the Legislative Council

If you want more perspectives, I recommend the Something for Cate blog for extended takes, and the Notionoriety blog for pithy ones (also this entry covers lower house independents that I haven’t covered). For really short takes, I whipped up a Twitter thread.

Happy voting and enjoy your democracy sausage!

#auspol #springst #vicvotes #vicvotes22 #vicvotes2022 #Victorian election #Victoria #Melbourne #Election 2022 #politics #political parties #political candidates #independent politics #independent politicians #democracy sausage

[actualhumancryptid]

I love being the Liberal* Party’s ‘Achilles heel’ lol.

Took awhile but, shockingly, the conservatives not engaging millennials is starting to bite them in the arse.

*liberal means conservative in Australia

#auspol #victorian election

[claraameliapond]

HAPPY VOTING DAY EVERYONE!!!! Aka my fellow Victorians 💖💕💗

Please please vote for Womens Health, 100% renewable clean government owned energy ( this is huge!!!!!)

A government who will advocate for and stand up for the rights of its people

This is the INCREDIBLE Victorian Labor Government that KEPT US ALL SAFE during the pandemic and dedicated each day, and all night, including weekends, to monitoring and informing the public about coronavirus and properly tracked and traced its spread and individually contacted people known to be near an infected individual

They LITERALLY DID NOT REST WHILE VICTORIANS WERE AT RISK

I want a government dedicated to my health

You don't get that kind of dedication - or work - with anyone else

Their ability to keep us safe in the pandemic was unparalleled Worldwide.

Please be aware of this.

Noone else in the world handed it as well as the Victorian Labor Government with Dan Andrews

World class leadership

And it worked

It was effective and the safest way to handle it

I want a government who will advocate for the human rights of its people, whose literal job it is to protect, and will not give in, even when actively targeted and bullied constantly by the opposing federal governing body at the time about its logical approach using scientific information and evidence to protect us all

I STAND WITH DAN

I want a government who will prepare responsibly and dedicate themselves to advocating for the human rights of its people and the safety of all, and to fixing whatever issues or challenges come its way and actively find working solutions

I want a government who will be upfront and tell us scientific medical information about public health and concerns, and actively take precautions to ensure its people stay as safe as possible in things like a pandemic

Who will actively inform the public about what is happening as it happens and who can be trusted and relied upon to give the best scientific evidence, advice and action about it

I want a government who listens to and trusts science and logic

Who proactively applies logic, common sense and scientific knowledge to their actions, precautions and solutions

And delivers results

I want a government who will fund what matters

The continued removal of dangerous level crossings and all the safe new train stations whose lines DO NOT INTERSECT A ROAD (= aka a level crossing) the three near me have just been finished and oh my gosh it's amazing lasting infrastructure

Changing and fixing practical things like infrastructure and human rights laws and access to medicine, education and clean energy

Lasting change that transforms our way of life and empowers individuals

That fixes things and creates lasting positive change

Who genuinely believe in women's equality and in protecting the environment

Who advocate for and believe in Aboriginal cultural respect in its already world first laws and actions and initiatives regarding this

Please please please vote to keep us safe in this continuing pandemic , and to empower our state with equality , equally distributed health care, education and training access , government owned clean energy 😀 😊 and a protected environment

Please make sure you VOTE LABOR

This 2022 Victorian State Election

Xxxxx

#Victoria #Victorian State Election #Victorian Labor Government #Victorian Labor #Election #Dan Andrews #I stand with Dan #Vote Labor #Vote #Voting #Australia #Instagram

[looktoyourkingdomz]

you don't understand how relieved i am that labor won and kicked the liberals asses so badly. am i the biggest fan of dan? no! i'm a greens voter! but having a party more conservative than labor in power for 4 whole years would have been a nightmare. and also fuck matthew guy

#auspol #vicpol #for non victorians context our state election was today and the liberals are the conservative party and they lost! #dan is the premier who has now been elected for a third term #the greens are the major left wing party btw bc this is australia so we have more than just two parties

[everything-anything3345]

Time now to focus on Victoria, Australia and its election for Premier. This American Yank is hoping that Daniel Andrews loses and loses big time. This is a state election in Victoria. Labor must be put last at all costs

Today's Date : November 26,2022.

#sack dan andrews shirt #get rid of him #daniel andrews #victorian election #australia today

[resplendentmackerelsky]

Omg Antony Green, hi!

#victorian state election #nothing exciting yet