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thesportssoundoff · 5 years

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Joey’s Yankees Trade Deadline

Joey

July 22nd, 2019

In 2016, the Yankees used the trade deadline to try and play two different games at once. Realizing that the magic had run out and four to five years of delaying the inevitable was over; the Yanks traded Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran and Andrew Miller to kick off what could've been a lengthy rebuild. Those three trades on their own restocked the farm system with premier top level talent with some lottery tickets thrown in that have paid dividends to this day. At the same time, a move here and a move provided them with some proven MLB players who allowed the team to flirt with being contenders down the stretch. It was a balancing act between rebuilding and placating your audience, one that ultimately paid off across the board. Watch this:

Aroldis Chapman turned into Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren and Billy McKinnie (more on him later).

Andrew Miller turned into Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield (who has since turned into James Paxton) and some spare parts.

Carlos Beltran turned into Dillon Tate (more about him later), Erik Swanson (another player who turned into James Paxton) and Nick Green

In 2017, the Yankees were in the midst of a "restocking" of the shelves. The rebuild took less than a season and the team rode a trio of young stars (Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorious and Gary Sanchez) with a loaded farm system to back them up. They gambled on their window and made moves to try and take what was a fun potential playoff team into a full blown world series contender. The Yankees sent a bundle of high upside low floor prospects to Chicago in exchange for Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson. They made a filler move for Jaime Garcia to give them some support on the back end of the rotation. Finally they made the decision to give Oakland a balance of high upside guys and some players who could fill spots on a major league roster in exchange for the top available pitcher on the market in Sonny Gray. The team ultimately made the ALCS.

By 2018, the Yankees story of being the fun rebuild into potential contenders was done and the Evil Empire was back. They spent their off-season swooping on key names and players. They got UNDER the luxury while adding the NL MVP in Giancarlo Stanton. By this time last year, the team had seen the likes of Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks all break through pretty much at once. Despite this, the Yankees felt like an empty World Series contender as Gary Sanchez collapsed, the 1B situation had eroded and as always, pitching was a premium. Despite spending most of the 2018 offseason preaching their desire for pitching, the Yankees never secured the "big" starter. They gambled on Sonny Gray rebooting and it never happened. They gambled on Tanaka being more consistent and he was a mystery. Guys like Domingo German and Johnny Loiasiga were inconsistent as pitchers tend to be. Making matters even more complicated, the Yankees had an impending roster crunch. They were full up on 40 man spots with a near limitless number of players in need of spots. As such the Yankees were active deadline players. They went out and got Lance Lynn, betting on peripherals (the same Lance Lynn who could be a key contributor to another team), in hopes he'd turn into something. Remember Billy McKinnie? Well the Yankees packaged him together with Brandon Drury to grab J.A. Happ. Happ wasn't the sexiest name on the FA market but the Yankees knew him from Toronto, respected the numbers and got him for pretty much a song. Dillon Tate? He went to Baltimore for Zach Britton. They also traded the likes of Adam Warren, Chasen Shreve and Giovanni Gallegos to create some space on the 40 man. One of the guys they got back? A "he hits the ball hard" 1B named Luke Voit. Voit went on to carry the offense when the likes of Judge and Stanton were sidelined or limited with injuries. Despite all the moves, the Yankees never quite hit their peak and the team was bounced out by the eventual world champions.

The 2019 Yankees enter the trade deadline in an interesting spot. This team is going to the playoffs and will almost certainly be the presumptive favorites in the AL. Their top opposition are the Houston Astros who like them are loaded up in the farm system with a need for pitching. Both teams stack up amazingly well against one another and the winner of that is almost certainly going to face the Dodgers. The Yankees path to a championship has never been clearer and this team is already making moves for October like trading for pinch runner extraordinaire Terrence Gore just so he can hang out in their minor leagues and show up around October. They saw a chance to make a move and got the AL home run leader Edwin Encarnacion just for further oomph in an oomphy line up. So what's the plan for July 31st? Well....

What Do They Need?

-Starting pitching

All teams need pitching but for a team with World Series aspirations? The Yankees REALLY need pitching. In a five game set, the Yankees will be able to roll out Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and James Paxton. That's more than good but it could be better. The Yankees rotation are volatile, even when you simply play the "all rotations are volatile" card. Tanaka has an elbow that could go at any time, CC Sabathia has one DL stint a half and James Paxton has never been all too durable himself. Behind those two guys you have J.A. Happ who is one of those aging arms trying to recalibrate his game in the juiced ball era and Domingo German who is likely to be on an innings limit. Despite the critiques of fans and baseball folks alike, the Yankees have found success with an opener (Chad Green starts, Nestor Cortes goes 3-4 innings) and can always rely on that. Can you do that in October? The Yankees' entire deadline is based around having a player who can start game 2 or 3 in the World Series behind Tanaka and potentially Paxton.

What Do They Want?

-Some relief help

The Yankees apparently want relief help which seems odd enough until you consider that their rotation may be five and fly come October. Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman make for four arms who can give you multiple innings but they could use upgrades elsewhere. Chad Green, David Hale, Nestor Cortes and Stephen Tarpley have all given the team some additional oomph out of the bullpen but this team could really use an additional arm in the pen. In a perfect world, the team has Dellin Betances back by September or Domingo German is in the bullpen for the second half of the year but no scenario goes 100% according to plan. They could also use a lefty primarily to buddy around with Britton out of the pen.

-Controllable years

The Yankees will eventually have to pay some folks they'd rather not lose out on (Didi, Betances) plus the likes of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and company will need to be paid. What's more, the likes of CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka potentially do not have long term futures for the Yankees. The Yankees want fiscally responsible controllable arms with years of control to be manipulated. Doesn't mean they won't go and chase down a rental but the rental approach last year ultimately cost them in the long run.

-High K rate/soft contact

This is very much a "No shit" comment but the Yankees prioritize guys who can miss bats OR initiate soft ground ball contact. The linedrive rate is a big deal for the Yankees because they ask pitchers to throw their offspeed stuff at extraordinary amount compares to the rest of the major leagues. As such any pitcher giving up hard contact and throwing a lot of fastballs in NYS is probably not going to fare well and they'd rather avoid that mess entirely.

What Do They Have?

The Yankees have traded away plenty of assets, especially guys who were in theory "ready now" pieces. The likes of Billy McKinney, Dillon Tate, Justus Sheffield and company were sent away. Guys like Chasen Shreve, Adam Warren, Caleb Smith, Giovanni Gallegos and Garrett Cooper who were on the 40 man with no future on the roster were moved out for space and intentional signing bonus money. Most of the Yankees system depth exists on the lower levels, way down in the proverbial food chain which normally doesn't doesn't entice a GM to make moves. The BEST piece for the Yankees is outfielder Clint Frazier and that piece comes with plenty of questions. Clint Frazier is a fantastic power bat with "legendary bat speed" as Brian Cashman called it. He can hit for power AND average even if he K's a bit more than you'd like which is also why the Yankees are not going to give him away. Conversely, Frazier's defense is abysmal and it hasn't gotten better in the three years he's been on the Yankees. That's not including the questions about his make up, personality and injury history. The Yankees have a potential spot open for Clint Frazier next year but I get the feeling that he's not going to be here one way or another by the start of the 2020 season. Frazier's stock on the Yankees will forever feel like a balance between raw talent and limited patience. Beyond that the Yankees have oft injured slumping OF Estevan Florial and undersized flame throwing Deivi Garcia who has been a rapidly ascending arm who is limited by his build.

What the Yankees do have is an abundance of complimentary pieces. They're loaded with the sort of guys who ultimately find ways to contribute to teams when given opportunities and bolster trades around big pieces. For instance, a guy like Stephen Tarpley can appeal to a team as a potential LOOGY 7th inning guy if given a more consistent role. Teams collect guys like Luis Cessa (hard throwing guys who seem to lack a defined role on a team) all the time. Mike Tauchmann is a really solid 4th outfielder who plays tremendous defense, hits lefties well despite being a lefty and seems like the sort of guy teams are always looking for because . Flexy infleidler types like Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada might be able to flourish in a more patient role and in the case of Estrada, there's high level upside for a guy who mashed pretty hard during his brief stint in the bigs. Even guys like Mike Ford, Chance Adams, Nestor Cortes and Ryan McBroom might find ways to become consistent contributors on other teams where they're not blocked by elite players. None of these guys can headline a package for a key piece but they can help amplify a deal and give teams a more instant reward while waiting for the "name" players of a trade to pan out. All a team has to do is look at how the likes of Miami and Toronto are getting some returns on talent the Yankees have given out.

The Best Case Scenario Is....

Easy enough for the Yankees, the best case scenario involves a starting pitcher arriving on their doorstep before the weekend ends. The Yankees tend to get help before the deadline crunch and with their lineup pretty much set across the board, their sole focus is on arms. A perfect scenario involves somebody like a Matthew Boyd or a Luis Castillo for a relatively modest price (can the Yankees convince a team that gambling on the upside of Florial plus some proven pieces can be a worthwhile starter point?) to give them not just an ace but a cost controlled ace under team control for a few years. The back up to the best case scenario pretty much revolves around two guys; Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray. Both are guys a tier below the likes of Boyd, Minor and Castillo on paper with a more measured upside. Stroman in particular feels like a guy who the Yankees would more than love; still kinda young, a workhorse who is mentally tough, the sort of guy who would thrive in the spotlight who seems like he wants the opportunity to dos so. After getting their starter, the Yanks grab a lefty arm for the pen and do so without giving up Clint Frazier or Deivi Garcia.

The Worst Case Scenario Is...

There are two worst case scenarios and both feel uncomfortably realistic. The Yankees overpay out the wazoo for a guy like Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard or Mike Minor; gambling big on their window being now and running the risk of overpaying for pitchers with a high level of bust potential. The Yankees go all in and give up a bunch to get one of the premier names who don't exactly fit what the long term profile of the Yankees is. The other worst case scenario is that there's NOBODY of consequence available and the Yankees are forced to accept the declining returns of a Madison Bumgarner. MadBum is an October baseball legend but he's aging with so-so peripherals who embodies the sort of rental the Yankees should aim to avoid. You're also going to wind up paying a sentimentality tax to San Francisco which when combined with the famed Yankee tax creates a ridiculous price point for this team. I also would imagine that the Yankees would cringe heavily and perish the thought of Zack Wheeler, Tanner Roark or Mike Leake as fallback options should every other key option be off the market.

One thing to remember....

The Boston Red Sox won the World Series last year with their starters averaging JUST over 5 innings a start. It's not a replica for success you want to copy but worst case scenario, there's no reason the Yankees couldn't go Tanaka-Sabathia-Paxton and some combination of Happ or German. It's not an ideal starting formula but it's also far from impossible. The Yankees could even bet on Luis Severino and German to piggyback off one another as long men in a postseason series. This is where having an insanely deep pen (with maybe a few bodies on the way) makes the Yankees different than just about any other team in this conversation except for the Rays.

#MLB #baseball #Yankees

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