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#Candidate Strategies
gurucave · 3 months
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Trump Secures Victory in New Hampshire Primary, Posing Challenges for Rival Haley
The 2024 United States presidential election season is underway, and New Hampshire recently hosted its crucial primary, marking a pivotal moment in the race. In a swift announcement by the Associated Press, former President Donald Trump emerged as the Republican winner, further solidifying his dominance within the party. This article delves into the New Hampshire primary results, analyzing the…
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mishapen-dear · 10 months
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thinking about the elections tonight... bad, cellbit, baghera, and forever are four candidates who are devoted to the island- more specifically, to the residents of the island. They care for the eggs, and they care for each other, and the way they exhibit that care through their primary presidential strategies is fucking fascinating.
Bad is who I watch the most, so I know him best. He's a classic mother hen. He doesn't like to take risks with the eggs, and he likes to prepare. If there's any sort of variable that could hurt an egg then he wants to control it. They have a stable relationship with the federation right now- it's not great, but they know the parameters. Don't trust cucurucho. don't follow cucurucho. send the eggs to NINHO every time there's a threat. the time of day changing means you need to run. Other than that they're p okay and roughly safe. But adding a president could potentially change everything. What if the president makes a rule that makes it easier to kill the eggs? And what about the way a president could cause tensions between the players to rise even higher? The dynamics of the island could change drastically. It's safer to neutralize that threat before it ever becomes a threat. It's easier to stop a war before it can start.
Baghera's primary concern is the way the election is designed to pit the residents against each other. All of them know that the Federation is a threat and she, like Bad, is focused on not letting them hurt more people. But, unlike Bad, she's less resistant to change. If the power is spread to multiple players rather than just one, it will be harder for the Federation to corrupt any one of them. Each time before the Federation has gotten to someone it's done so by isolating them. Felps, Cellbit, Jaiden- they've all spent a lot of alone time with Cucurucho. A council isn't just to consolidate the ideals of the island; a council would protect the players themselves. Sure, there might be disagreements and arguments, but they've had those before (and they're having them now!) and there's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to get through them again.
I hit a bit of a wall with Forever and Cellbit's pov here. Everything I know about their plans are from the debates and paraphrased discussions that have been translated here on tumblr, I'm going to talk less about their explicit plan and more about what the result will entail- a single president who takes responsibility for the island. It seems to me like they've recognized the presidential seat as the powerful opportunity that it is, and they want to take advantage of it. Here's some extra personal speculation but, adding rules, adding or removing mods, proposing public works, enforcing laws- those are just the abilities that are listed. Those are incredible opportunities to make the Federation take action, which is more than they've had before. We've seen before that the Federation isn't perfect; the Federation makes mistakes.
By working with the Federation, by making them take action (in a semi-controlled, semi-predictable way) you open them up to more opportunities for them to fuck up (while benefiting you). And, maybe, one of those fuck ups will be the key to taking them down. Maybe they could reopen ender chests. Maybe they could open the nether. Maybe they could learn why the Federation is holding an election in the first place. It's possible to do all these things with Baghera's plan, sure, but that's not a guarantee and, if someone like Bad is on the council, there's absolutely no way to be sure it would get done. And, if there's a council, then that opens up everyone on the council to the Federation's wiles. If there's just one president, then that's where the Federation's focus will be. By using a single person to build a relationship with the Federation, they only risk that single person. By electing ministers instead of a council, they can ensure that the island residents' needs are being heard while placing the federation's focus on that one person. A point can be made that they've done that before- with varying results. like kidnapping. selling your soul. etc. But! overall, I think they've gained more than they've lost by singling out one person. Because of them, we know that Cucurucho can't be trusted. We know that the Federation has a series of tunnels underneath the island. We know that the Federation not only has some sort of cryo technology, but had some unknown reason to use it. We know that there was another person working with Cellbit to take care of Felps (theorized to be ElQuackity), so we know there's at least one more Fed that isn't Cucurucho + blank-faced workers. There's been risk, but there's absolutely been rewards. This is just a very long meandering way to say that their plan to sacrifice Forever to the presidential seat reminds me very much of Cellbit's plan to sacrifice himself to the federation. They're saving their friends by potentially damning themselves and I, for one, think that is cool as hell.
they all care about each other so much. bad's plan means taking on no more risk. baghera's plan means spreading that risk evenly to stand strong together. and cellbit and forever's plan means taking the risk onto themselves so they can reap the rewards for others. am i reading too much into things? no this is tumblr and this smp is about LOVE and i really genuinely think that their election plans are a fantastic example of just how much they love each other
#qsmp elections#qsmp#qsmp analysis#again i haven't been following cellbit and forever's exact plan too closely but i've gotten the sense that their pushing of public works is#just to get people to vote for them and the true reason they want forever to be president is to infiltrate the federation#if that's not it tho feel free to let me know i'd love to know these cubitos reasonings#but with my interpretation i like the silly little extra headcanon of mr cell “sold his soul to the cops” bit#subconsciously sacrificing forever to the feds and pushing him into corruption#which ALSO makes the forever-killing-cellbit-to-kick-him-out-of-the-running plan Even More Tasty#'what if i let you kill me. what if destroying me destroyed yourself. what if i have already destroyed you on purpose and you forgave me#now what if i dont mean it when i do it again'#if anyone wants to examine the other candidates (or these same ones) and figure out how their election strategy is an example of their love#please do#i don't know enoguh about the others#but i know that gegg is love-turned-grief burn-the-world-down#and foolish is love for Item. love for cloud. love for being a silly#i don't know etoiles' plan for if he gets elected but i know he also deeply loves the island and the residents#him and his security <3 and the care packages for new players <3 and the way he Craves Violence but absolutely refuses to hurt anyone who#doesn't deserve it. most guy of all time#personally i want foolish to win because i think it would be really fun#but i think that any of them (even the candidates i don't know) would be a Fantastic president#we're going to get some good roleplay any way it goes so ill be happy :3#the only mechanic thing i want is for them to open the nether but that feels like a given for anyone so im not worried about it tbh#ty for coming to my tedtalk#hello if you're reading this tag. i see youre just as un-normal about these characters as i am. or you just like to read. respect either wa
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This Salon article by Ian Hanley-Lopez is well worth taking the time to read. Although it was written in Dec. 2013--BEFORE the age of Trump, it was prescient of the continued trajectory of the Republican Party towards a white nationalist agenda. The article describes:
How the indirect racist messaging of "dog whistle politics" began with George Wallace, using the language of being opposed to "arrogant federal authority," and being for "states’ rights," "law and order, running your own schools, [and] protecting property rights." Even though Wallace was a Southern Democrat (and later an Independent) the "dog whistle" strategies he employed were later appropriated by the GOP in the "Southern Strategy."
How the GOP's "Southern Strategy" slowly developed in the 1960s, when Goldwater began to push “states’ rights,” as well as “freedom of association." This strategy over time helped the Republican Party begin to appeal to those white voters who still held overt or covert racial prejudices.
How Kennedy and Johnson, by promoting civil rights legislation, turned the Democrats into the party identified with championing the civil rights of marginalized racial and ethnic groups.
How Richard Nixon fully embraced the "Southern Strategy," through his messaging of being for "law and order," and against the "forced busing" of children (to integrate public schools). As he gradually adopted this strategy, Nixon also turned against one of his own administration's earlier policies (developed by George Romney), which Nixon later derided as the "forced integration of the suburbs."
How, according to Hanley-Lopez, these changes in the racial strategies and policies of the diverging Republican and Democratic parties in the 1960s/early 1970s contributed to "the rise of racially identified parties," with a majority of white voters shifting to the GOP (which became "in fact, though not in name, the White Man's Party"), and the Democratic Party being associated with racial and ethnic minorities (as well as a smaller proportion of white voters, i.e., well-educated whites, especially white women). [color emphasis of terms, quotes added]
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Echoes of Nixon's 1968 campaign ad in one of Trump's 2020 campaign ads
Hanley-Lopez mentions a 1968 Nixon campaign ad that focused on "exploiting the growing panic that equated social protest with social chaos." Above is the video of that 1968 ad: "The First Civil Right." Below is a transcript of the video:
TRANSCRIPT* (Music with snare drum and dissonant piano chords) MALE NARRATOR**: It is time for an honest look at the problem of order in the United States. Dissent is a necessary ingredient of change, but in a system of government that provides for peaceful change, there is no cause that justifies resort to violence. Let us recognize that the first civil right of every American is to be free from domestic violence. So I pledge to you, we shall have order in the United States. [TEXT: THIS TIME VOTE LIKE YOUR WHOLE WORLD DEPENDED ON IT. . .NIXON] [Color/ emphasis added.]
This 1968 Nixon campaign ad is eerily like at least one Trump 2020 campaign ad, "Abolished," which used some out of context video footage in order to exploit the fears of many white conservative voters regarding the Black Lives Matter protests and the poorly worded "Defund the Police" slogan.
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Below is a transcript of the Trump campaign's 2020 "Abolished" video.
TRANSCRIPT*** [ Phone ringing/ Answering machine beeping/ background music. ] AUTOMATED FEMALE VOICE: You have reached the 911 police emergency line. Due to defunding of the police department, we're sorry but no one is here to take your call. If you're calling to report a rape, please press 1. To report a murder, press 2. To report a home invasion, press 3. For all other crimes, leave your name and number and someone will get back to you. Our estimated wait time is currently five days. Goodbye. [ TEXT: Joe Biden's supporters are fighting to defund police departments. Fox News, 6/6/20 | Violent crime has exploded. ABC News, 6/24/20 | You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America. | TRUMP   PENCE   KEEP AMERICA GREAT   20 ] TRUMP: I'm Donald J. Trump and I approve this message. [Color/ emphasis added.]
In conclusion, the barely covert racism in the GOP's political messaging that was so prominent during Trump's administration, and currently in the DeSantis Florida administration (among other GOP administrations) was not new. It was deliberately fostered by Republicans, starting in the 1960s, as they deployed their "Southern Strategy" to woo white voters who still had some overt or covert racial prejudices. The "Southern Strategy" relied on Republicans incorporating into their messaging strategies the kind of covert racist messaging that George Wallace used.
This strategy has unfortunately succeeded all too well.
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______________ *Transcript source (before layout changes/ edits) of the 1968 Nixon campaign's ad "The First Civil Right,"(alternatively called "Law and Order"): Museum of the Moving Image, The Living Room Candidate: Presidential Campaign Commercials 1952-2012. **Note that the "male narrator" sounds a lot like Nixon (at least to me). ***The transcript of the Trump campaign's 2020 "Abolished" ad is based on the English auto-generated YouTube transcript, as well as the video text and sounds/music.
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venti-death-watch · 13 days
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can’t wait to see what actually ends up happening, because right now it looks like arlecchino is in the position of the previous knave, and freminet is in her former position
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mmikmmik2 · 8 months
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It looks like Gotchard is writing the Chemies as having distinct personalities and goals, even if it’s not really getting into each of their deals.
I’m guessing that’s why Rinne’s dad sent Hopper1 and Steamliner in particular to go Rider-scouting. He thinks that, of the duos that are eligible to make a base form, they’re the best judges of character/most heroic or reliable Chemies. (As opposed to someone like Skateboard-kun who perhaps might wander off to play.) Hopper1 does seem to have been that one heroic historical alchemist’s partner and they were dragging Hotaro off to fight the MOTW in episode two.
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bloobluebloo · 3 months
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Anyways it's going to be *great* when the passive blame that is already being largely placed on Arab and Muslim Americans (and the many people who just cannot consciously vote for someone who not only actively endorses a genocide, but whose party has spent so much time denying the fact and pussyfooting around the matter even from the most progressive candidates) who refuse to cast a vote for Biden becomes active and vehement blame instead of directing that anger and rage towards the political system that was allowed to degrade to a state where people have been essentially brainwashed to feverishly advocate for a candidate that has endorsed and actively funneled money towards a genocide and has not reversed any of those "Muslim bans" enacted by Trump that they love to bring up and has people at his rallies drowning out cries for a ceasefire with "4 more years" because the other guy will do the same but worse somehow. It's the people's fault, for not voting, of course.
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what-breaks-my-heart · 9 months
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My one year of ad-free browsing courtesy of a gift from anon has expired today.
I still remember the RAGE I had when staff chose to introduce blazed posts in our dash without consideration of the contents we choose not to see (tags, word filters) and after YEARS of curating our dash so we can live in peace on this circus of tumblr dot com.
And I remember my surprise when I received the gift, shielding me from the nonsense I was so mad about.
I want to subscribe but the fee being standardised across the globe and my currency (and our national mean and median salary) being low af means it is not affordable, especially when it only offers ad-free browsing with no other extra benefits.
I willingly pay for YouTube Premium because it offers much more than ad-free experience; the features have proven to be useful for me personally.
I have personally written to @support (in their feedback form) suggesting a two-tier subscription with base subscription offering only ad-free browsing at a lower fee and a premium subscription tier which offers a bit of extra benefits, e.g., one crab per month, and pricing the two tiers strategically so that users who can afford the premium tier would choose to pay more, but at the same time tapping into users from lower income/currency countries.
In order to figure out suitable fees for both tiers, targeted market survey is one tool to obtain meaningful feedback, and I would be more than willing to participate if @staff do perform such survey.
At the end of the day, any offering of paid services should be deemed as value for money, and who else is better to give input on what value is in this case if not us who are chronically on tumblr.
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yessoupy · 11 months
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two straight days with political events..... pray for me lol. I forget how like.... new to this some people are? like I'm new to the physical aspects of it but I've been steeped in the theoretical and practical basically my entire life.
today's the quarterly meeting of the county party and the first one my candidate has a hand in producing. I made some business cards yesterday and handed them out at the victory party and everyone who got one was like 'omg? this is such a good idea' and HELLO it's just a BUSINESS CARD from my PRINTER.
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pwrn51 · 5 days
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Lest We Forget-Historical: Money In Politics Part 1
  In the latest episode of Lest We Forget-Historical, host Lillian Cauldwell examines the role of money in politics and its corrupting influence that benefits only the wealthy and powerful, sidelining the real citizens of the United States. She starts with a historical perspective, noting the early instances of monetary influence in politics, such as our first President, George Washington, who…
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hammadchauhdary · 2 months
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Setting and Achieving Your Career Goals: 8 plans to Success
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Introduction to Career Goals
Career goals are like laying a strong foundation for our work life. It helps us know where we are headed and what we want to achieve. Without clear goals, we might feel lost and unsure of what to do. Career goals can be set and reached step by step, making sure they match what you want in your career. Together, we will figure out how to set goals that make sense for you and give you the tools to reach them with confidence. With each goal you achieve, we will celebrate your success and move closer to a future where you feel fulfilled and accomplished in your work.
The Importance of Setting Career Goals
Setting career goals is crucial because it gives us focus and a sense of purpose. When we set career goals, we can make better choices about what to do to get where we want to go, like picking the right classes or jobs. Having career goals helps us use our time wisely and focus on things that will move us forward in our careers. They also keep us motivated, even when things get tough. So, setting career goals is not just a good idea, it is a way to make sure we are heading in the right direction and staying on track to reach our dreams.
Setting career goals is not just about planning, it is about changing our future for the better. It helps us see things clearly when everything seems uncertain, makes us stronger when things get tough, and pushes us to do our best in our careers. As we go on this journey of learning about ourselves and growing, let’s remember the importance of setting goals. They are like the foundation of our success and happiness at work.
Types of Career Goals
Types of Career GoalsDescriptionShort-term goalsThese goals are achievable within a relatively short period, typically within a year or less. They help build momentum and provide a sense of achievement along the way.Long-term goalsLong-term goals require more time and effort to achieve, spanning several years and often involving significant milestones or career advancements.Personal development goalsPersonal development goals focus on improving specific skills or acquiring new knowledge to enhance professional capabilities. They can be achieved through courses, workshops, or self-study.Promotion goalsPromotion goals revolve around advancing in careers, such as moving up the corporate ladder, obtaining higher positions, or taking on more responsibilities.Entrepreneurship goalsEntrepreneurship goals involve setting milestones and targets related to launching, growing, and sustaining a successful business venture.
By understanding the different types of career goals, we can tailor our approach and ensure that our goals are aligned with our aspirations.
1. How to Set Career Goals
Setting career goals requires careful consideration and planning. Here are some steps to help you set effective career goals:
Reflect on your values and interests: Start by understanding what truly matters to you and what you enjoy doing. Reflect on your passions, values, and skills to identify areas of interest that align with your career aspirations.
Define your long-term vision: Envision where you want to be in your career in the long run. Do you aspire to hold a leadership position, start your own business, or make a significant impact in your industry? Having a clear vision will help you set meaningful goals.
Break down your long-term goals: Once you have a long-term vision, break it down into smaller, actionable steps. These steps will become your short-term objectives, making it easier to track progress and stay motivated.
Make your goals SMART: Ensure that your goals are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound (SMART). This framework will help you set clear and attainable goals that can be tracked and measured.
Write them down: Document your goals in writing. This simple act of writing them down increases commitment and accountability.
By following these steps, you will have a solid foundation for setting meaningful and achievable career goals.
2. Creating a Plan for Achieving Career Goals
Setting goals is just the beginning; the next step is to create a plan that will guide you toward your achievement. Here’s how you can create a plan for your career goals:
Identify the necessary steps: Break down your long-term goals into smaller, actionable steps. Each step should be specific and contribute to the overall achievement of your goal.
Set deadlines: Assign deadlines to each step to create a sense of urgency and ensure progress is made consistently.
Prioritize tasks: Determine which tasks are most important and prioritize them accordingly. This will help you stay focused and prevent overwhelm.
Allocate resources: Identify the resources you will need to achieve your goals, such as time, money, or specific skills. Allocate these resources effectively to support your journey.
Track your progress: Regularly monitor and assess your progress toward your goals. This will help you stay on track and make necessary adjustments if needed.
By creating a plan, you will have a clear path to follow, making it easier to stay motivated and achieve your career goals.
3. Breaking Down Long-Term Goals into Short-Term Objectives
Long-term goals can often feel overwhelming, making it important to break them down into smaller, more manageable objectives. By doing so, you can create a sense of progress and accomplishment along the way. Here’s how you can break down your long-term goals into short-term objectives:
Identify the milestones: Determine the key milestones that need to be achieved to reach your long-term goal. These milestones act as checkpoints and help you track your progress.
Set specific objectives: Break down each milestone into smaller, specific objectives. These objectives should be achievable within a shorter timeframe, typically within a few months.
Create an action plan: Develop a detailed action plan for each objective. Outline the tasks, resources, and timelines required to accomplish each objective.
Monitor and adjust: Regularly monitor your progress towards each objective and make adjustments as needed. Celebrate your achievements and reassess your approach if you encounter any obstacles.
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4. The Role of Self-Assessment in Goal Setting
Self-assessment plays a crucial role in goal setting as it helps us understand our strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement. By conducting a self-assessment, we gain valuable insights that can inform our career goals. Here’s how self-assessment can contribute to effective goal setting:
Identify your strengths: Reflect on your skills, experiences, and achievements to identify your key strengths. These strengths can guide your goal setting by aligning them with areas where you excel.
Recognize areas for improvement: Self-assessment also helps us recognize areas where we may need to improve. By identifying these areas, we can set goals that focus on developing those skills or acquiring new knowledge.
Align goals with values and interests: Self-assessment provides an opportunity to align our goals with our values, interests, and passions. This alignment increases motivation and satisfaction in our careers.
Seek feedback: Seek feedback from mentors, peers, or supervisors to gain an outside perspective on your strengths and areas for improvement. This feedback can further inform your goal-setting process.
By incorporating self-assessment into your goal setting, you can ensure that your goals are aligned with your strengths, values, and aspirations.
5. Strategies for Staying Motivated and Focused on Career Goals
Staying motivated and focused on our career goals can be challenging, especially when faced with obstacles or setbacks. However, with the right strategies, we can maintain our motivation and drive. Here are some strategies to stay motivated and focused on your career goals:
Visualize success: Create a clear mental image of yourself achieving your goals. Visualize the positive outcomes, the sense of accomplishment, and the impact it will have on your professional life.
Break goals into smaller tasks: Breaking down your goals into smaller, manageable tasks provides a sense of progress and achievement. Celebrate each completed task, no matter how small.
Find an accountability partner: Share your goals with someone you trust and respect. This person can provide support, and m encouragement, and hold you accountable for your actions.
Celebrate milestones: Celebrate your achievements along the way. Recognize and reward yourself for reaching milestones, as this will help maintain motivation and momentum.
Stay inspired: Surround yourself with inspiration and motivation. Read books, listen to podcasts, or attend conferences that align with your goals and aspirations.
By implementing these strategies, you can overcome challenges, maintain motivation, and stay focused on your career goals.
6. Overcoming Obstacles and Setbacks in Search of Career Goals
Obstacles and setbacks are necessary in any search, including the search of our career goals. However, it is essential to develop strength and overcome these challenges. Here’s how you can overcome obstacles and setbacks in the search for your career goals:
Adopt a growth mindset: Embrace challenges as opportunities for growth and learning. Adopting a growth mindset enables you to view setbacks as temporary and see them as stepping stones toward success.
Learn from failures: When faced with setbacks or failures, take the time to reflect and learn from them. Identify the lessons and insights that can be gained from these experiences and apply them to future activities.
Seek support: Reach out to mentors, colleagues, or friends for support during challenging times. They can provide guidance, encouragement, and alternative perspectives that can help you overcome obstacles.
Reevaluate and adjust: If you encounter significant setbacks or realize that your goals need modification, be willing to reevaluate and adjust your approach. Flexibility and adaptability are key to overcoming obstacles.
Stay persistent: Perseverance is crucial in the face of adversity. Stay committed to your goals, even when faced with challenges, and keep pushing forward.
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7. Seeking Support and Mentorship for Career Advancement
Seeking support and mentorship can greatly enhance career advancement. Mentors provide guidance, advice, and valuable insights that can help you navigate your professional journey. Here’s how you can seek support and mentorship for career advancement:
Identify potential mentors: Look for individuals who are experienced in your field or have achieved success in areas you aspire to. These individuals can offer valuable guidance and support.
Reach out and build relationships: Take the initiative to connect with potential mentors. Attend networking events, reach out via professional platforms, or ask for introductions from colleagues or friends.
Be clear about your goals: When approaching a potential mentor, be clear about your goals and what you hope to gain from the mentorship. This clarity will help mentors understand how they can best support you.
Be receptive to feedback: Actively seek feedback from your mentors and be open to constructive criticism. This feedback can help you identify areas for improvement and accelerate your growth.
Nurture the relationship: Maintain regular communication with your mentors and express gratitude for their support. Show a genuine interest in their insights and experiences.
Mentorship can significantly accelerate your career growth by providing you with valuable guidance, support, and opportunities for professional development.
8. Celebrating Milestones and Reevaluating Career Goals
As you progress towards achieving your career goals, it is important to celebrate milestones along the way. Celebrating milestones not only provides a sense of achievement but also serves as an opportunity to reflect on your progress and reevaluate your career goals. Here’s how you can celebrate milestones and reevaluate your career goals:
Acknowledge achievements: Take the time to acknowledge and celebrate each milestone you reach. This can be done through personal reflection, treating yourself to something special, or sharing your achievements with loved ones.
Reflect on progress: Use each milestone as an opportunity to reflect on your progress. Assess whether your goals are still aligned with your aspirations and if any adjustments need to be made.
Reevaluate and set new goals: Based on your reflections, reevaluate your career goals and set new ones if necessary. This process ensures that your goals remain relevant and aligned with your long-term vision.
Seek feedback: Seek feedback from mentors, supervisors, or colleagues to gain additional positions on your progress and potential areas for growth.
By celebrating milestones and periodically reevaluating your career goals, you can ensure that you stay on track and continue to pursue meaningful and fulfilling professional endeavors.
Conclusion
Setting and achieving career goals is like entering a meaningful journey where you need to be dedicated, stay focused, and keep evaluating how you are doing. By sticking to the steps we have talked about in this article, you will be able to set career goals that matter to you, come up with a plan to make them happen and deal with any challenges that come your way.
It is important to keep yourself motivated, ask for help if you need it, and make sure to celebrate every little success as you move closer to your big dreams. With a clear plan in place and a commitment to growing personally, you have what it takes to steer through your professional journey confidently and reach your career goals.
Don’t miss out—subscribe to our newsletter or follow us on social media for timely updates on our forthcoming articles.
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jobsbuster · 2 months
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itphobia · 3 months
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How Technology Is Reshaping Recruitment? – The Definitive Guide
In this digital age, how technology is reshaping recruitment? Recruitment has always been a critical component of business success. Today, companies are seeking more efficient ways to attract, evaluate, and onboard the right talent. This pursuit is driving a shift towards technology-driven recruitment strategies that promise greater efficiency and better outcomes. With an overwhelming number…
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benjisbytes · 4 months
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If nothing changes, Donald Trump will be president again by January 2025.
That is only one year away.
Joe Biden is dropping in the polls, he is personally disapproved of by a majority of Americans, and importantly he isn't the primary choice of at least 39% of his own Democrats.
He continues to say he will stay in the race.
Interestingly he also says if Trump wasn't running, he might have already dropped out.
That could prove to be his undoing.
Multiple consistent polls are placing him on the losing side come November 2024.
However, there is precedent for a president to drop out on an election year, only months from the general itself.
Lyndon Johnson dropped out of the 1968 race in March of that year.
Biden can and could do the same.
Of course the Democrats went on to lose in '68 to Richard Nixon.
So the precedent is there, but it bodes badly for the incumbent party.
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What might end up saving him if he doesn't drop out is the surprising strength of Democrats in actual elections since 2016.
2018, 2020, 2022 (and the most recent state and local elections of 2023) have all arguably tilted in the favour of the Democrats.
The most surprising of these was 2022 when Biden performed better than almost any recent president in a midterm election.
He maintained control of the Senate, and held Republicans to a very slim majority in the House, in a year that was predicted as a 'Red Wave'.
That slim majority has played havoc with the image of the House GOP, as they wage an internal war of control, even ousting their own Speaker in a bitter, divided process.
Similarly, 2023 didn't buck this trend of Republicans underperforming.
Democrat performance can be put down generally to two things.
First was the Supreme Court decision to get rid of Roe v. Wade and the abortion protections that have been in place since the 1970s.
Republican ownership of that policy has motivated a large number of pro-abortion citizens across the US to become active politically, out of fear of losing their reproductive rights and bodily autonomy.
Second is the repeated nomination by Republicans of pro-MAGA election deniers in key battleground races.
Trump's influence is the cause of this. The sway he holds over the Republican base ensures almost exclusively that those who swear fealty to him in a primary contest will become the party's nominee.
The GOP consistently places themselves on a bad footing from the start of important races, giving Democrats the advantage.
Of course both of these factors stem from Republican actions and mistakes, not from Democratic strategy or political action.
Though they are effectively taking advantage of these situations, they are not in control of them.
The GOP could move towards more electable nominees, and tamp down the anti-abortion rhetoric and campaigning.
This will limit Democrats ability to attack Republicans on their weakest points.
•••
There is also the issue of Trump's possible criminal conviction, where he ends up in prison by the time of the election.
The effects of this are hard to quantify.
His base will not abandon him, no matter what happens to him. In fact, a prison sentence may even increase the intensity of his support amongst this group, leading to another January 6 style event, possibly at the jail he is held in.
Polls that have studied this scenario only point to marginal Biden leads, by a single or two points.
This is of course a swing from a Trump lead without a conviction.
The swing to Biden is even less noticeable when candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are on the prospective ballot.
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Biden cannot (and should not) rely on a Trump conviction to sway voters. The effects will likely be minimal, and whilst this is important in a close race it absolutely cannot be the core of a winning strategy.
Biden and Democrats must discredit RFK Jr. and attack Trump and the GOP on the things that work: abortion rights, and the dangers of a second Trump term.
They must also utilise the down-ballot races and candidates that are most popular, which are generally people like moderate Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
They should show Biden off as much as possible in controlled environments, and send out the most popular surrogates across the country to stump for the president.
What is certain is that without a change to the strategy, Biden does not have as clear a run as he did in 2020.
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gacorley · 3 months
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There’s some common threads I see in the anti-voting posts going around, and I feel like I need to discuss some of them. Let’s start with the biggest one:
Voting to punish evil. I see lots of variations of this. Biden is supporting Israel, therefore we can’t vote for him. Is there any viable candidate who would stop the genocide? I don’t think the anti voting crowd actually cares. They are appealing to moral feelings rather than political strategy, because strategically, you have to realize that voting is not going to change foreign policy, and that change has to be pushed by other means. It’ll probably be something in the long haul.
Democrats should run someone else. First of all, this is a shit strategy. You don’t primary your president in the second term unless your party is falling apart. This may come from people from countries where replacing the head of government is easier, but the POTUS is the de facto party head. Also, going to the lack of thought to the goal — do you know someone willing to primary Biden and able to win who would do the things you want?
Biden hasn’t done anything anyway. This is just a way to bat away pro arguments. There’s plenty of lists of progress on lots of things. Student loans, insulin price caps, regulations, anti-trust.
Putting the entire Palestinian genocide on Biden. I’m not saying there’s not culpability there, but understand that the entire US government is in support of Israel, on both sides. It was a miracle we got a handful of Senators to call for investigations. We should cut off aid, absolutely. Who’s running to do that? And keep in mind that Israel chose to engage. US officials would have liked a more limited response, not out of care for Palestinians, but because they know from experience that it will come back to bite Israel in the form of newly radicalized Hamas recruits.
Liberals just have no hope for change. This is a new one. Just some idea that people are stuck in a rut and that’s the reason the two party system exists. The two party system is a mathematical consequence of the way we vote. There is reason to hope for change. The change, though, whatever means you choose, will take decades. Keep working at it. The hope is not that this election will fundamentally change things. The hope is that many small political actions over the years will push things forward.
Funnily enough, I haven’t seen a whole lot of third party promotion, just lots of this rhetoric aiming to punish. When voting, ask yourself:
Is this problem I have with this candidate something that the other candidate would be better on?
Are there other political actions I can take that will help?
What things can change with a different President or Congress, and what needs to be pursued by other means?
Withholding your vote as a punishment isn’t really going to help. Biden doesn’t know who you are or why you are not voting for him, and there is no one with a chance of winning that will do everything you want. But you have other means. Protest, organize, donate, build up alternatives, advocate for a different system.
Vote to give yourself space and get a little bit. Do other things to keep things moving.
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computerjagat · 7 months
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Rahul Gandhi Mizoram visit: राहुल गांधी आज चुनावी राज्य मिजोरम का दौरा शुरू कर सकते हैं
कांग्रेस नेता राहुल गांधी आज पूर्वोत्तर राज्य मिजोरम का दौरा शुरू कर सकते हैं. मिजोरम की अपनी तीन दिवसीय यात्रा के दौरान वह चुनावी राज्य में चुनाव प्रचार अभियान में तेजी लाएंगे. राहुल गांधी के नेतृत्व में कांग्रेस पार्टी का भारत जोड़ो अभियान काफी सफल माना जा रहा है. कांग्रेस पार्टी के नेताओं का मानना है कि उनकी इस यात्रा का लाभ हाल में कर्नाटक विधानसभा चुनाव में सामने मिला. कांग्रेस पार्टी को इस…
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