#even though the latter two always overturn his decisions

[bluerose5]

Andrew's Peter meeting raging bisexual Eddie Brock and chaotic pansexual Wade Wilson, all wide-eyed with wonder. He's like, "Teach me your ways."

#no i do not accept constructive criticism #spiderman no way home #multiverse #peter parker #wade wilson #eddie brock #venom #deadpool #he's the group's moral compass #even though the latter two always overturn his decisions #majority rule they say

[naminethewriter]

America’s Favourite Gameshow!!

Day 2 and I’m still on track! It’s way too late though and I hope I get done with the other prompts sometime before 12am 😴 Anyway, have fun with this silly little fluff story 💙💚🥰 @intrulogicalweek2021

Here on Ao3

Masterpost | Intrulogical Week 2021 Masterpost

Characters: Remus, Logan

Relationship: romantic Intrulogical

Rating: G

Words: 1,480

Summary:  Logan just wanted to make sure his boyfriend ate something. Remus wants entertainment more.

Logan walked along the halls of Remus’ castle in search of his boyfriend who had run off after breakfast to continue some project of his. Now, hours later, Logan wanted to ensure that he had eaten since then because while they didn’t require to eat, considering they were just figments of Thomas’ overactive subconscious, it had proven to be beneficial to their wellbeing as well as Thomas’. It had taken Logan almost a year of research to come to that conclusion but it had been well worth the effort.

 But both sides of Creativity were prone to forgetting the passage of time while working on one of their passion projects, hence Logan’s decision to check on Remus this afternoon. He had already looked through most of the grounds and was now on his way up into a tower. It was pretty much separated from the rest of the castle and nobody but Logan and the Duke himself had access and Remus spend a lot of time up there doing whatever he wants without disturbance. The only reason that Logan had put off checking there first is because he disliked the long, long staircase leading up. About three fourth of the way up, Logan could hear cluttering sounds, so it seemed reasonable to assume his search would soon be over.

After another five minutes of climbing he finally reached the top, only one door separating him from whatever mess Remus has caused this time. Logan took a few deep breaths before pushing it open.

 Pure Chaos laid before him. He couldn’t even begin to describe it. Furniture overturned and broken. Paint or something colourful had gotten everywhere. Glass shards, papers, confetti, everything scattered randomly around the room and Remus in the middle of it.

 Logan didn’t even attempt going any further in. Instead he called out to his boyfriend who turned to face so fast, his head rotated more than it should with a sickening crack.

 “Lolo!” he grinned, pulling his head back into the right position before climbing over the rubble to the door. As soon as he got into touching distance he wrapped himself around Logan in a tight hug. His boyfriend just patted his arm until he let go. “What brings you here, starshine? You horny?” He wiggled his eyebrows suggestively, causing Logan to roll his eyes.

 “No Remus, I am not horny. I simply came to check on you since I haven’t seen you since breakfast.”

 “Ah shit, is it already evening? Damn time flies when you’re busy, huh.”

 “What were you doing in the first place? This entire room is a mess.” Logan immediately regretted asking when he saw the smile spreading across his boyfriend’s face. “No, Remus, please-“

 Too late.

 Remus snapped and suddenly there was a spotlight on the two of them, two more swinging across the room that was now notably darker. Some kind of jingle started playing and an invisible audience started applauding. Remus, now in a suit, brought a microphone to his mouth.

 “Ladies and Gentlemen! You have waited patiently and now it is finally time to play America’s favourite gameshow! It’s” – the fake audience yelled along the next words –

 “Art or Science!”

 “The rules are simple,” Remus continued alone. “Our returning champion, Logan ‘Logic’ Sanders, has five minutes to survey the room and then he has to decide: did I cause this chaos in the name of Art or Science! He is allowed to ask me three things to specify, not one hint more. Our contestant has a success rate of 66% so far and I’m sure we are all curious to see the result of our fourth episode of-!” Remus held the mic away from him and again the imaginary audience shouted:

 “Art or Science!”

 “Now, Logan. Are you ready to start?” Remus held out the mic to Logan this time who groaned and levelled him with an unimpressed glare.

 “Is this really necessary, Cephy?” Remus laughed and threw his arms open.

 “Of course not, but it’s fun so we’re doing it!” Logan massaged his temple. Ever since Thomas had taken to binge watching SNL sketches on YouTube, Remus had been practically enthralled with their game show parodies. Especially if Bill Hader (Remus’ favourite cast member) played the host. His top spot shifted between ‘What’s that Name?’ and ‘Who’s on Top’ every five minutes and Logan couldn’t deny that the chaos of those concepts fit Remus very well, so it should be no surprise that he thought of his own little show. It just annoyed Logan that he was the only contestant ever having to deal with it.

 Well, at least it was short. He could play along for five minutes.

 “Fine, start the clock.” Remus cheered, as did the audience, and the light returned to how it was before, with the entire room evenly lit.

 “As always, please don’t hesitate to give us play-by-play commentary on your thought process, Sherlock,” Remus giggled and Logan nodded absentmindedly, already scanning the room for clues. He took the first minute to simply think and his boyfriend let him but Logan knew he would grow impatient eventually.

 “Clearly there is both art supplies as well as lab equipment present and I have witnessed you using both for the others intended purpose, so that does not provide any essential hints. The furniture is mostly broken and out of place. Especially that table that seems to be hanging out the window and only hangs on with one leg anchored inside. The glass was most likely smashed by said table. This could point to a possible explosion that resulted after a failed experiment, favouring science as its cause. Though again, I have seen you set off an explosion to create an art piece of yours so it is not concrete proof either.” Remus nodded along to his descriptions and a spotlight also shone on the areas he talked about.

 “Now for my first question, I would like you to confirm whether the dark red substance in that corner is blood or not.”

 “It’s not, though I tried my best to get it to smell the same.” Logan nodded, again falling silent for a moment to think. The quiet was broken by a croak and something moved though it was hidden enough that Logan couldn’t quite make it out.

 “You used live specimen. Not unheard off for your art but more common with experiments. Especially frogs.”

 “Toads, not frogs actually.”

 “I can tell apart a frog croaking and toad doing the same, Remus. That sound was a frog.”

 “Nah, you see, I like how toads look better but frogs sound more appealing, so I made a toad that croaked like a frog.”

 “Fascinating. Could you show it to me later?”

 “Sure! Also that counts as your second questions.” Logan glared at his boyfriend for a moment but relented.

 “Fine.” He continued to point out other details about the room and whether they pointed towards art or science and soon Remus announced that he had only 30 seconds left. Logan contemplated in his head and came to a decision at the same moment Remus called:

 “Time! Five minutes are up, Ladies and Gentlemen! Now Logan, give us your answer, please!” The room had darkened once again, with a spotlight on Logan and Remus and two others moving around the room.

 “I say it’s art.”

 “Is that your final answer?”

 “Yes, Remus, please do not drag this out any longer.”

 “Yeah, yeah.” He waved his hand around before getting back into character. “His answer is locked in! Now let’s see if he’s right. Is it art?” A drumroll played and then a bang. Even more confetti poured out of the ceiling, along with balloons, the normal, oval ones and those long ones with two of the former tied to one of the latter (I’m sure you can guess what that symbolises, we’re talking about Remus here after all).

 “Coooooooorrrreeeeccccctttt!” Applause roared and Remus threw an arm around his boyfriend, pulling him close. “Another win for our returning champion! With this his success rate is now at 75%! How are you feeling, are you proud?” He held out the mic to Logan, who rolled his eyes.

 “I am alright, now please wrap this up.” Remus giggled but complied.

 “That was it for this episode of-“

 “Art or Science!”

 “See you next time, folks!” And with another snap, things returned to normal, the lights, the sounds and Remus’ outfit. “Wasn’t that fun, starlight?”

 “It was fine, Remus.”

 “You just don’t like admitting it~”

 “No matter, that is not what I came up here for anyway.”

 “Oh yeah, why did you come here?”

 “To ask if you have eaten since breakfast.”

 “Oh, rotten shit, I forgot.”

 “I thought as much. Come on, I secured you some leftovers from lunch and the rest of the hot sauce.”

 “You are the best, moonlight.”

#namiswriting #my writing #intrulogicalweek2021 #day 2: art/science #intrulogical #ts logan #logan sanders #ts remus #remus sanders #fluff #gameshow #remus is the king of chaos #logan is a bit done #just a bit though #he can't deny his boyfriend some fun #sanders sides #sanders sides fanfiction #reblogs and kudos are appreciated!

[catalinaroleplay]

Gender & Pronouns: Demigirl, she/they

Date of Birth: July 28th, 1990 (30)

Place of Birth: Catalina Island, California

Neighborhood: Avalon

Length of Residency: Native

Occupation: Owner of Essence of Petra and Former Reality TV Star 

Face Claim: Margot Robbie

BIOGRAPHY

TRIGGERS: Car Accident.

It’s always been acknowledged that every person is different from the next. Many people study the virtual calendar on their iPhone, patiently waiting for the workday to be over because it’s one day closer to the weekend. Two days out of the five-day workweek, where people rest themselves or use these two days to socialize only to regret they didn’t get enough rest. Though, when someone wakes up each morning, it’s someone’s birthday erupting from the vast locations across the planet. Some people care, other people don’t, but when you put Cleo Halliwell into the equation, what’s supposed to be a single-day celebration on July 28th, has become the hottest ticket for anyone to get their hands on in Catalina.

Although, instead of jumping ahead into the festivities of Cleo and her need to be the center of attention regardless of the circumstances, the backstory of Arthur and Evelyn Halliwell’s eldest daughter has to start somewhere. Ideally, the day of July 28th, 1989, is when her beloved mother endured twenty-six-hour labor to see the sight of their newborn quiet as a mouse and sucking on her thumb. It’s the first and only time when silence overpowered Cleo ─ even when her head lay upon wicked Evelyn’s chest. It’s far from a warning sign for the new parents over how kind of havoc they’re going to receive from their daughter. Though, as the years went on, everyone close to the platinum-locked girl sat on the edge of their seats, rarely having a moment of silence to relax, as they needed to keep their attention in complete focus for the unknown that could plenty come from her behalf.

Her constant push and pull infuriated Evelyn for years. Others would react out to seek attention from their loved ones. For her, the reason for acting out was because the adrenaline consuming her couldn’t be thrashed elsewhere. She loved breaking the norms that society placed on women, specifically in prominent positions due to their families. She didn’t care if she came home with bruises on her knees from all of the tumbles from the jungle gym or for sliding on the grass to the nearest base for the impromptu baseball game. This is everything she loved. Of course, for her mother, Evelyn’s endless scorns at her daughter felt as if she’s boomed and is failing what’s supposed to be the matriarch of her jewelry company. After all, your firstborn inherits the responsibilities when the parents pass on, especially when you have a family business.

However, as the young girl kept growing and finding new ways to evolve herself, one happens to be the sudden interest in ballet. A glimmer of hope flickered in the matriarch’s colored optics. If it hadn’t been for the spontaneous work trip Arthur took for his wife’s company and constant pleading from his younger daughter, she would’ve never laid eyes on the holiday performance of Nutcracker performed by the New York City Ballet. It had been love at first sight before any other life experiences could come to her. It’s all the bright and wide-eyed six years old Cleo could talk about on the car ride from the performance to the hotel, then for the proceeding days. It got to the point where their words began to exhaust their father, who retorted to occasional hm’s, and that’s nice remarks. Yet, his minimal words meant he’s listening, and because of his open-ears, the father-daughter pairing returned from their New York trip; Arthur made sure to inform his wife about Cleo’s dreams.

So, as the young girl went to bed that evening, she’d be woken up in the morning to their mother, pre-plastic surgery, standing over the bed with fabulous news. Her mother hired Tamara Rojo, an artistic director of the English National Ballet and the lead principal dancer. A collection of known performances and awards proving her ability and impact in the industry did not go overlooked. Because of Tamara’s praise, it led to Evelyn Halliwell getting the best for her daughter ─ even if it meant coming off as menacing.

The dynamic between both Cleo and Tamara flourished gracefully and instantly. The teacher stimulated the young dancer early to achieve every one of her goals without a second thought. Any form of doubt was quickly overturned with guidance, even with ways to encourage the young girl while hearing her feelings before pushing her through the three hours of practice. However, the further Tamara made her feel appreciated. Even from when Cleo was young, her mother would be hands-off and only show interest when it benefited it. It took her years to start seeing the former principal as a monumental figure. Tamara became a pseudo mother that she longed for and knew would never change her, as Evelyn tried all too frequently.

And the motherly connection Cleo established with Tamara would only prosper over the years. If it hadn’t been for Tamara, the continuous encouragement, and signing up the young ballerina for competitions, she’d remain a nobody from the isle of Catalina Island. If it hadn’t been for her teacher, she wouldn’t have received a letter from the American Ballet Theatre with a position to join the company after her high school graduation. It was a dream come true and something she had worked feverishly, yet tiredly toward, from the moment she took the spontaneous New York City trip with her father. Now it was paying off, and nothing could crush their dreams.

That’s until she ended up in a car accident in November of her senior year, dating a month after learning about her position at the American Ballet Theatre. The accident was gruesome to Cleo because the impact was direct into the passenger’s side. Luckily for their seatbelt, it saved her because had the circumstances been different, the aging individuals’ life would’ve ended then and there due to the intensity. Though, there’s more harm that consumed her trained body and ended their dream of being a principal dancer ─ a ruptured disc.

Doctors told them that surgeries could adjust the damages to a point where she’ll function without laborious complaints, but it will never be the same. After all, medicine doesn’t work that way. Once the car accident happened, the damage had been created. Minimization is ideally the best solution, but none will receive one hundred percent capability. Maybe ninety percent, so it’s loose in the possibilities, but the young girl would notice the difference immediately. If she wanted to dance, which wasn’t recommended by their doctors, the future would be gruesome and full of distress, as the only way to minimize the feeling would be through chiropractors and massage therapists. But they needed to lay it out flat for the young girl to avoid her doing anything reckless ─ considering since reckless, and testing any sort of authority, is their middle name. So, as challenging as the news turned out to be, Cleo had to move on. Whether she liked it, and the latter she did not, this is the new normal for them.

Astonishingly three months later, Gwendolyn Prescott and Cleo jokingly signed up for a local talent show. Little did the girls know what would outcome they’d receive. The decision had been a spur of the moment and a chance for them to do something irregular on a Friday evening rather than purposefully causing havoc that would end send their parents to early burials. The then-blondes went out on stage in a head-to-toe black attire and sang an original piece ─ Potential Breakup Song, described as how things unfolded between this suitor and one of the girls. Neither one of the pairs knew, let alone were aware, the head of the record label Hollywood Studios happened to be in the crowd since their niece coincidentally signed up for the show.

Something that unfolded on a whim led to an introduction and an eventual album deal to test the waters of their popularity before going any further. This offer alone came without any rejections as both sets of parents encouraged this opportunity. Dealing with a single topping the charts, handling a private life while attending school, and recording an album at seventeen showed them the first signs of adulthood. It had been fun. It also tested their patience, capability, along with a glimpse of what potential endeavors may endure. Many opportunities could’ve happened but, there was always an underlying factor ─ university.

After the release of Into The Rush, the only album Cleo and Gwen put out as a duo, the best friends agreed to fulfill their utmost potential by completing their tertiary education. Gwen booking a one-way ticket to New York while Cleo loaded up their newly purchased BMW X5 and made the trip to the University of Berkeley as the young soul got accepted into the school’s business program. Little did Cleo know, the single album release would land the second eldest Halliwell as the face and the protagonist of a reality series called Saint Catalina upon their return to the isle once the freshmen semester was completed.

The reality series carried on for four years as it set forth the future path for Cleo’s career once graduating from Berkeley. Not only did it bring opportunities such as an active perfume line, Cleodora, but side modeling bookings throughout the years to build their resume. It’s strange to imagine that once, in a blue moon, she thought ballet would be their break to stardom. But with improvisation, good luck, and a straightforward personality that captivated viewers’ attention, the path forward for the blonde is promising. Just when you think you’ve had enough of Cleo Halliwell, she comes back swinging ─ literally.

PERSONALITY

Positive: Straightforward | Logical | Entertaining

Negative: Imperious | Sardonic | Puerile

Cleo Halliwell is portrayed by Steph.

#all #nonb #avalon #margot robbie #car accident tw

[patriotsnet]

What Happens If Republicans Win The House

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/what-happens-if-republicans-win-the-house/

What Happens If Republicans Win The House

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

Trump to decide on 2024 presidential run once Republicans ‘take back the House’

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted on Thursday.

He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had rejected his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.

“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact voted to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.

But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.

TAGS

How Congress Counts The Votes

Congress will meet in a joint session around 1 p.m. Eastern time, meaning both the House and Senate are together. Pence will preside over the process. He could delegate the job to another senator, but we dont expect that.

They will go through the states alphabetically. For each state, clerks sitting below Pence will hand him the envelopes, tell him the votes, and he is supposed to read them out loud. Then they move on to the next state.

There will be precautions for coronavirus. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told lawmakers to stay in their offices during debate. The plan is for lawmakers to stream in to vote in small groups. And masks are required on the House floor.

Why Republicans Are Likely To Win The 2022 Mid

The public opinion in the United States may indeed be generally opposed to the Republican Party coming to power in the 2022 mid-term election, yet we should not close our eyes to the fact that the GOP is still well-positioned to take back the House and change the balance of power in its favor.

Taking a glance at what happened during recent months, it seems highly probable that the Republican party may have little to no chance to win the 2022 mid-term election. The first and the most noticeable incident that helps this idea prevail is that it was a Republican president who instead of leading the country towards peace in a time of crisis back in January, actually added fuel to the huge fire of division and riot in the U.S. and encouraged his extremist supporters to attack the Capitol Building, creating a national embarrassment that can hardly be erased from peoples memory.

To compound the puzzle, while no one can deny the destructive role the former president Donald Trump had in plotting for and leading the , in the battle of Trump against the truth, the members of the Republican party chose to opt for supporting the former at the cost of sacrificing the latter; It was on this Wednesday that Republican leaders in Congress expressed their opposition to a proposed bipartisan commission designed and created for investigating the Capitol riot that was carried out by Trumps supporters.

Recommended Reading: Should Republicans Vote In Democratic Primary

What Happens If The House Has To Decide The Next President

The unlikely scenario has been discussed by the president and Nancy Pelosi.

Election year 2020 by the numbers

A bitterly divided country deadlocked in a 269-269 Electoral College tie turns to the House of Representatives to select the next president.

The unusual constitutional scenario is considered so far-fetched — it hasn’t happened since 1824 — that it was written into the plot of the fifth season of HBO comedy series “Veep” and its send-up of the political class.

But in a year when coronavirus-related voting changes could have an unpredictable impact on an already competitive presidential race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, it’s a potential, if remote, election outcome Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have openly acknowledged.

“I don’t want to end up in the Supreme Court and I don’t want to go back to Congress either, even though we have an advantage,” Trump said of the election at a Sept. 26 Pennsylvania rally.

Pelosi fired back in a letter to House Democrats two days later, encouraging members to support candidates in “key districts” across the country.

“If Trump can’t win at the ballot box, he wants the House to deliver him the presidency,” she wrote. “It’s sad we have to plan this way, but it’s what we must do to ensure the election is not stolen.”

Republicans hold advantage in the House

Pelosi ‘prepared’ for every election scenario

Reality Check #4: The Electoral College And The Senate Are Profoundly Undemocraticand Were Stuck With Them

Because the Constitution set up a state-by-state system for picking presidents, the massive Democratic majorities we now see in California and New York often mislead us about the partys national electoral prospects. In 2016, Hillary Clintons 3-million-vote plurality came entirely from California. In 2020, Bidens 7-million-vote edge came entirely from California and New York. These are largely what election experts call wasted votesDemocratic votes that dont, ultimately, help the Democrat to win. That imbalance explains why Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 and came within a handful of votes in three states from doing the same last November, despite his decisive popular-vote losses.

The response from aggrieved Democrats? Abolish the Electoral College! In practice, theyd need to get two-thirds of the House and Senate, and three-fourths of the state legislatures, to ditch the process that gives Republicans their only plausible chance these days to win the White House. Shortly after the 2016 election, Gallup found that Republican support for abolishing the electoral college had dropped to 19 percent. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a state-by-state scheme to effectively abolish the Electoral College without changing the Constitution, hasnt seen support from a single red or purple state.

Recommended Reading: Why Is The Media Against Republicans

Democratic Accomplishments Just Give Republicans Something To Undo

Yes, even if the Democratic trifecta is very likely to end next year, and even if Republicans win their own in 2024, theres no way around the fact that in an amazingly short period of time Biden and his party may wrack up a mini-New Deal that reverses many years of atavistic Republican and meh Democratic policies. That has to be an enduring blow to Republicans, right?

Maybe not so much any more. One of the benefits of being conquered by a free-spending protectionist and isolationist is that the GOP is now pretty flexible in terms of its old Reaganite core ideology. As Rand Paul just cheefully said, if Democrats raise taxes something that horrified old-school Republicans like the ugly face of sin itself theyll just lower them next time they have the power to do so! Bidens accomplishments give the opposition an agenda, which is useful at a time when it isnt exactly brimming with policy ideas. Republicans may very well embrace the most popular Biden initiatives while demonizing the ones that dont poll so well. Its an easier strategy than the one they followed in those more principled days when they lectured voters about the need for entitlement reform.

Redistricting Is The Next Step On A Path To One

The redistricting process kicked off this week in Washington. The Census Bureau released initial data from the 2020 census Monday afternoon, , which means that congressional district boundaries will soon be redrawn to account for changes in population.

These changes will probably tend to benefit the Republican Party, as conservative states will get more seats for instance, Texas will gain two seats, while New York, California, and Illinois will all lose one. Republicans are also certain to use the process to try to gerrymander themselves as many additional congressional seats as possible by leveraging their control of a majority of state legislatures. And that is just the opening tactic in a long-term strategy to abolish American democracy and set up one-party rule.

Today in Michigan, gerrymandering means Republicans enjoy a 3.4-point handicap in the state House and a 10.7-point handicap in the state Senate; in Pennsylvania, it’s a 3.1-point handicap in the House and a 5.9-point handicap in the Senate; and in Wisconsin, a 7.1-point handicap in the House and a 10.1-point handicap in the Senate.

It’s impossible to gerrymander the Senate, of course, but luckily for Republicans that chamber is inherently gerrymandered due to the large number of disproportionately white, low-population rural states that lean conservative. The swing seat in the Senate is biased something like 7 points to the right.

Read Also: Which Party Is Bigger Democrats Or Republicans

Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024

The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.

But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.

What Happens If One Chamber Votes To Accept A Challenge To A States Electors

What will happen if Democrats take back Congress?

Now we are almost certainly getting out of the realm of possibility, given the numbers. But if the Senate decided to vote in favor of a challenge to a states electors, there are still many hurdles to overturning Bidens win.

The law requires both chambers of Congress to affirmatively vote to object to a states electors, which wont happen with a Democratic-controlled House.

Even if both chambers somehow agreed to accept the challenge, the tiebreaker would go to the governor of the state. And all governors in contested states have certified results that Biden won.

So even if we drift far into hypotheticals on this, there are numerous checks that would protect Bidens win.

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The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans

The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.

Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.

Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.

Hope For Biden’s Agenda

For two years, the Republican-controlled Senate bottled up virtually every piece of legislation coming out of the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. With a Georgia victory, that blockage has been removed.

That’s good news for Biden’s rather extensive legislative agenda – on issues like healthcare, the environment, government reform and the economy – which should be able to survive the House and at least get an up-or-down vote in the Senate.

A 50-50 Senate tie won’t mean the Green New Deal or a public health-insurance option are coming any time soon, however. There’s still the filibuster, which mandates 60 votes to pass major legislation, to contend with, and even bills that can get by with a simple majority will have to satisfy Democratic centrists like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and the two senators from Arizona.

Another round of coronavirus relief seems probable, however, including larger per-person relief payments to all Americans. A simple congressional majority can also vote to rescind any regulations the Trump administration enacted in the final months of his presidency. That will, at the very least, get the Biden presidency off on the right foot.

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The Plausible Solution: Just Win More

Whether the public sees Democratic demands for these structural changes as overdue or overreaching, the key point is that they are currently exercises in futility. The only plausible road to winning their major policy goals is to win by winning. This means politics, not re-engineering. They need to find ways to take down their opponents, and then be smarter about using that power while they have it.

They certainly have issues to campaign on. In the few weeks, we have learned that some of Americas wealthiest people have paid only minimal or no federal income tax at all. Even as the Wall Street Journal editorial writers were responding to a Code Red emergency , the jaw-dropping nature of the reportfollowed by a New York Times piece about the impotence of the IRS to deal with the tax evasions of private equity royaltyconfirmed the folk wisdom of countless bars, diners, and union halls: the wealthy get away with murder.

Of course this is a whole lot easier said than done. A political climate where inflation, crime and immigration are dominant issues has the potential to override good economic news. And 2020 already showed what can happen when a relative handful of voices calling for defunding the police can drown out the broader usage of economic fairness.

Filed Under:

Why This Could Stretch Well Into The Night Anyway

Trump lost about six swing states, and theyre spread out throughout the alphabet Arizona to Wisconsin. Republicans who question the election results have indicated they will try to challenge all of them. Each time theres a challenge supported by at least one member of each chamber, Congress has to split off and vote on it. Then they come back together and keep counting states. Voting will also take longer than normal because of coronavirus precautions to space lawmakers apart from each other.

What is a normally quick and easy process could get dragged into the wee hours.

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Reality Check 3: The Democrats Legislative Fix Will Never Happenand Doesnt Even Touch The Real Threats

Its understandable why Democrats have ascribed a life-or-death quality to S. 1, the For the People bill that would impose a wide range of requirements on state voting procedures. The dozensor hundredsof provisions enacted by Republican state legislatures and governors represent a determination to ensure that the GOP thumb will be on the scale at every step of the voting process. The proposed law would roll that back on a national level by imposing a raft of requirements on statesno excuse absentee voting, more days and hours to votebut would also include public financing of campaigns, independent redistricting commissions and compulsory release of presidential candidates’ tax returns.

There are all sorts of Constitutional questions posed by these ideas. But theres a more fundamental issue here: The Constitutional clause on which the Democrats are relyingArticle I, Section 4, Clause 1gives Congress significant power over Congressional elections, but none over elections for state offices or the choosing of Presidential electors.

How Challenges To States Electors Will Work

For a challenge to proceed, at least one lawmaker from each chamber must object to a states electors. More than two dozen House Republicans have said they will try to challenge results, and a dozen GOP senators will join them even though Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has urged senators to stay away from this.

Lawmakers dont have to give a detailed explanation of why they object; they just object in writing, which Pence will read out loud.

If theres an objection to a states electors raised by both a House and Senate lawmaker, the chambers have to split up and vote on that objection. Most of this will be done silently, save for Pence reading out loud the objections.

They have up to two hours to debate each one. That means there will be simultaneous debates in the House and Senate. We expect congressional leaders in both chambers to move to put down the challenges as quickly as possible. In the House, Pelosi will let lawmakers from the states being challenged do the speaking on the Democratic side.

Read Also: How Many Republicans Won In Yesterday’s Elections

[gordonwilliamsweb]

Biden’s First Order of Business May Be to Undo Trump’s Policies, but It Won’t Be Easy

The party split in Congress is so slim that, even with Democrats technically in the majority, passing major health care legislation will be extremely difficult. So speculation about President-elect Joe Biden’s health agenda has focused on the things he can accomplish using executive authority. Although there is a long list of things he could do, even longer is the list of things he is being urged to undo — actions taken by President Donald Trump.

This story also ran on NPR. It can be republished for free.

While Trump was not able to make good on his highest-profile health-related promises from his 2016 campaign — including repealing the Affordable Care Act and broadly lowering prescription drug prices — his administration did make substantial changes to the nation’s health care system using executive branch authority. And many of those changes are anathema to Democrats, particularly those aimed at hobbling the ACA.

For example, the Trump administration made it easier for those who buy their own insurance to purchase cheaper plans that don’t cover all the ACA benefits and may not cover preexisting conditions. It also eliminated protections from discrimination in health care to people who are transgender.

Trump’s use of tools like regulations, guidance and executive orders to modify health programs “was like an attack by a thousand paper cuts,” said Maura Calsyn, managing director of health policy at the Center for American Progress, a Democratic think tank. Approaching the November election, she said, “the administration was in the process of doing irreparable harm to the nation’s health care system.”

Reversing many of those changes will be a big part of Biden’s health agenda, in many cases coming even before trying to act on his own campaign pledges, such as creating a government-sponsored health plan for the ACA.

Chris Jennings, a health adviser to Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, said he refers to those Trump health policies as “bird droppings. As in you have to clean up the bird droppings before you have a clean slate.”

Republicans, when they take over from a Democratic administration, think of their predecessor’s policies the same way.

Though changing policies made by the executive branch seems easy, that’s not always the case.

“These are issue-by-issue determinations that must be made, and they require process evaluation, legal evaluation, resource consideration and timeliness,” said Jennings. In other words, some policies will take more time and personnel resources than others. And health policies will have to compete for White House attention with policies the new administration will want to change on anything from the environment to immigration to education.

Even within health care, issues as diverse as the operations of the ACA marketplaces, women’s reproductive health and stem cell research will vie to be high on the list.

A Guide to Executive Actions

Some types of actions are easier to reverse than others.

Executive orders issued by the president, for example, can be summarily overturned by a new executive order. Agency “guidance” can similarly be written over, although the Trump administration has worked to make that more onerous.

Since the 1980s, for example, every time the presidency has changed parties, one of the incoming president’s first actions has been to issue an executive order to either reimpose or eliminate the “Mexico City Policy” that governs funding for international family planning organizations that “perform or promote” abortion. Why do new administrations address abortion so quickly? Because the anniversary of the landmark Supreme Court abortion decision Roe v. Wade is two days after Inauguration Day, so the action is always politically timely.

Harder to change are formal regulations, such as one effectively banning Planned Parenthood from the federal family planning program, Title X. They are governed by a law, the Administrative Procedure Act, that lays out a very specific — and often time-consuming — process. “You have to cross your t’s and dot your legal i’s,” said Nicholas Bagley, who teaches administrative law at the University of Michigan Law School.

And if you don’t? Then regulations can be challenged in court — as those of the Trump administration were dozens of times. That’s something Biden officials will take pains to avoid, said Calsyn. “I would expect to see very deliberate notice and comment rule-making, considering the reshaped judiciary” with so many Trump-appointed judges, she said.

What Comes First?

Undoing a previous administration’s actions is an exercise in trying to push many things through a very narrow tube in a short time. Department regulations have to go not just through the leadership in each department, but also through the Office of Management and Budget “for a technical review, cost-benefit analysis and legal authority,” said Bagley. “That can take time.”

Complicating matters, many health regulations emanate not just from the Department of Health and Human Services, but jointly from HHS and other departments, including Labor and Treasury, which likely means more time to negotiate decisions among multiple departments.

Finally, said Bagley, “for really high-profile things, you’ve got to get the president’s attention, and he’s got limited time, too.” Anything pandemic-related is likely to come first, he said.

Some items get pushed to the front of the line because of calendar considerations, as with the abortion executive orders. Others need more immediate attention because they are part of active court cases.

“You have all these court schedules and briefing schedules that will dictate the timeline where they make all these decisions,” said Katie Keith, a health policy researcher and law professor at Georgetown University.

The Trump administration’s efforts to allow states to set work requirements for many low-income adults who gained Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of the program is the highest-profile Trump action that falls into that latter category. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case challenging HHS approval of work requirements for Arkansas and New Hampshire in the next few months. Some Democrats are concerned about how the high court, with its new conservative majority, might rule, and the Biden administration will have to move fast if officials decide they want to head off that case.

But court actions also might help the Biden administration short-circuit the onerous regulatory process. If a regulation the new administration wants to rewrite or repeal has already been blocked by a court, Biden officials can simply choose not to appeal that ruling. That’s what Trump did in ending insurance company subsidies for enrollees with low incomes in 2017.

Allowing a lower-court ruling to stand, however, is not a foolproof strategy. “That raises the possibility of having someone [else] intervene,” said Keith. For example, Democratic attorneys general stepped in to defend the ACA in a case now pending at the Supreme Court when the Trump administration chose not to. “So, you have to be pretty strategic about not appealing,” she said.

Adding On?

One other big decision for the incoming administration is whether it wants to use the opportunity to tweak or add to Trump policies rather than eliminate them. “Is it undoing and full stop?” asked Keith. “Or undoing and adding on?”

She said there is “a full slate of ideologically neutral” policies Trump put out, including ones on price transparency and prescription drugs. If Biden officials don’t want to keep those as they are, they can rewrite them and advance other policies at the same time, saving a round of regulatory effort.

But none of it is easy — or fast.

One big problem is just having enough bodies available to do the work. “There was so much that undermined and hollowed out the federal workforce; there’s a lot of rebuilding that needs to done,” said Calsyn of the Center for American Progress. And Trump officials ran so roughshod over the regulatory process in many cases, she said, “even putting those processes back in place is going to be hard.”

Incoming officials will also have other time-sensitive work to do. Writing regulations for the newly passed ban on “surprise” medical bills will almost certainly be a giant political fight between insurers and health care providers, who will try to re-litigate the legislation as it is implemented. Rules for insurers who sell policies under the ACA will need to be written almost immediately after Biden takes office.

Anyone waiting for a particular Trump policy to be wiped from the books will likely have to pack their patience. But law professor Bagley said he’s optimistic it will all get done.

“One of the things we’ve grown unaccustomed to is a competent administration,” he said. “When people are competent, they can do a lot of things pretty quickly.”

Kaiser Health News (KHN) is a national health policy news service. It is an editorially independent program of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation which is not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

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[fapangel]

The North Korean Counter-Force Catalog

Or, What We Can Learn From Google Earth IMINT

The world once again finds itself on the brink of a North Korean crisis, and this time matters have come to a head - the DPRK has developed a capable solid-fueled ICBM and a tested thermonuclear warhead to place upon it. Theories have been overturned by the cold facts of capabilities, and now there is only a matter of months before these new weapons are fielded in significant numbers. The free world in general, and America in particular, now have very little time to weigh the consequences of action versus inaction.

Unfortunately, the academics and thinkers whom usually inform and enrich the public debate seem largely unable to grasp the nature and gravity of the current crisis, preferring retreat to the familiar bastion of Cold War era deterrence theory. As Crispin Rovere neatly summarized: "There are analysts discounting the possibility of war, but based on shallow reasoning: North Korea has nuclear weapons, nuclear war is unthinkable, therefore there will be no war." More and more frequently, the terrible specter of war is dismissed out of hand in the opening sentences of op-eds and think tank columns, as if ignoring the beast will compel it to leave. Recent rumblings from the Pentagon have made clear, however, that our military leaders cannot indulge these luxuries - they must confront the possibility, and thus the actual balance of capabilities that determine the outcome.

Unfortunately, public discussion is badly hindered because open-source information on the actual capabilities in play are painfully scarce. Even Barry R. Posen of the New York Times came up nearly empty, forced to extrapolate from published estimates of North Korean Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) numbers and pragmatic worst-case assumptions (every TEL in its own hardened bunker) to work out the weapons required - and thus the scope of the military effort needed. Indeed, this dearth of information is so complete that Roger Cavazos's now well-known article debunking the myth of DPRK artillery leveling Seoul, "Mind the Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality," relied heavily on amateur Google Earth IMINT research done by an anonymous internet user known only as "Planeman!" And even this well is dry, the original internet discussion forum Planeman's work was hosted on having been shut down ages ago, and few others pursuing the same efforts. It's perhaps no surprise - at least one other talented amateur IMINT analyst received a job offer from Janes. (If you’re good at something, never do it for free, as they say.) Thus the public discussion of the potentials and perils of “the military option” in North Korea has been starved of information. The voting electorate are the final arbiters of power in American democracy, as they will eventually hold their congressional representatives - and their President - to account for whatever outcomes generated by their decisions now. This grants popular opinion great influence over events (and North Korea knows it,) yet those commentators seeking to sway the masses have almost no information or evidence to present them with. 

Though unschooled and unworthy in the art of IMINT, I am an educated journalist, and can at least attempt the “footwork” to aid others. Fortunately, I can stand on the shoulders of giants in this effort - especially Jacob Bogle and his amazing work on “Access DPRK,” a colossal project to comprehensively map places and features in North Korea via free satellite imagery in Google Earth. Without Mr. Bogle's work - and all 53,722 Google Earth placemarks he generated - my efforts would be in vain. I also owe a debt to bookmarks compiled by “nkbypanda,” an anonymous amateur analyst, and even the original Google Earth .kmz bookmark file by “Planeman.” Building on their work, I've taken the next step and tried to classify hardened sites in North Korea, with an emphasis on identifying every hardened bunker or facility that might accommodate a TEL, in order to quantify the true scope of the challenge facing the Pentagon.

The Google Earth .kmz bookmarks file can be found here. Though still very much a work in progress, some general points of great significance are immediately apparent and are worth sharing now (especially with the ever-shorter timelines of potential crisis on the peninsula) and by publicizing I might invite the critique of the more informed.

Scope Of The Counter-Force Problem

Any preemptive strike on North Korea must assume worst-case scenarios - namely, that the regime will respond to any attack, no matter how limited, with full scale retaliation against Seoul, Tokyo and even the United States with a significant fraction of the weapons in their inventory, including conventional, chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. In other words, counter-force strike is the only feasible preemptive option. The conventional military balance on the peninsula being what it is, the equation is predominantly an “allied counter-force strike versus DPRK counter-value arsenal” problem. Even the oft-lamented artillery threat to Seoul is only notable when considered as delivery systems for chemical warheads.

Of the DPRK's known capabilities for delivering counter-value WMD attacks, three systems are predominant. In order of lethality, these are their SRBM arsenal, their 240mm Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, and their 170mm “Koksan” self-propelled heavy artillery guns.

This owes to several practical considerations. First, their solid-fueled, road-mobile IRBM and ICBM forces are still in their nascent phase, with their first successful tests conducted very recently, late last year at best, (in the case of the Pukkuksong-1.) Thus, at time of writing, North Korea simply hasn't had the time to produce and field them in significant numbers. This leaves their only operational MRBM the “Nodong,” a liquid-fueled weapon which is leashed to fixed bases and sizable support convoys, hindered by long (and fairly obvious) prep times, and above all is a 16 meter long weapon which makes it particularly ungainly to lug about the rugged North Korean terrain - especially on wheeled TELs. 

The DPRK's SRBM arsenal (chiefly domestic variants of the 12-meter long, solid-fueled Scud) are far more mobile, compact, and quick to prep and launch. They can be dispersed faster, across more possible terrain, and hidden in more places for a longer time than the Nodong. Most crucially, their TELs - which determine how many they can fire at once - are available in numbers (published estimates vary widely, the median being 200 TEL vehicles or so.) Combined with their ability to deliver North Korea's first generation of fission weapons, (unlike MLRS or artillery,) the DPRK's Scud force is the most survivable counter-value asset they have, and - despite the bevy of land and sea based anti-missile systems now deployed to the ROK - the one most likely to survive in numbers sufficient to saturate defenses and strike Seoul. (Striking America or even Tokyo is unnecessary, as the potential devastation of even a single low-yield warhead striking Seoul proper is more than enough to constitute an effective deterrent - which is why North Korea still exists.)

Thus, quantifying the scope of the counter-force challenge depends on finding the Scuds, the MLRS, and the 170mm artillery. This is what I've found so far.

The Bunker Blitz - A Concerted Asset Dispersal Effort

The most telling insight so far has been a downright feverish effort by North Korea to build new reverse-slope bunkers, mostly near the DMZ opposite Seoul, beginning in 2009 but peaking between 2011 and 2013. Especially in the latter timeframe, new bunkers on reverse slopes appeared almost everywhere - the .kmz file has northwards of 300 so far. They come in three distinct styles, which I've dubbed “large,” “medium,” and “Koksan.” The lattermost one is distinctive, and sheds light on the goals of the entire reverse-slope building effort:

The curious shape, with its narrow room off the back, was ultimately explained by “nkbypanda's” past work, which provided a ground-level view of storage sheds for the 170mm Koksan gun and overhead imagery to reference. The presence of these storage sheds in close proximity - invariably with gun barrels visible, and occasionally an entire gun parked outside - confirmed the purpose of these bunkers. (The narrow room accommodates the long barrel of a Koksan gun.) They're almost always built in sets of six, with two sets placed as close together as terrain allows (for a full battalion of 12 guns.) The distinct shape of these bunkers (visible in post-construction surface scarring) and presence of Koksan gun sheds allows identification even when imagery of the construction phase is poorly lit, poorly timed, or even nonexistent. So far I've found nine Koksan battalions (about half within 60km of Seoul's center) and a few half-battalion (6 gun) or single-battery (4 gun) dispersal sites for use in wartime (no unit permanently stationed there.)

In addition to being direct evidence of very scarce reports and anecdotal evidence concerning reverse-slope basing of 170mm Koksan guns, this casts other bunker-building efforts in the same timeframe in a decisively offensive light. Half the battalions so far discovered are more than 60km from Seoul's city center (the maximum theoretical range of the Koksan if using Rocket Assisted Projectiles.) They are, however, well-positioned for deep fire on the Chorwon invasion corridor (see page 11.) This makes their other bunkers more suspicious - despite being much closer to the DMZ (and thus more vulnerable) than required to range Seoul, such aggressive forward basing also maximizes penetration chances (steeper, faster re-entry trajectories to avoid ABM defense) and their reach into the southern ROK. In other words, they’re not sited for strictly counter-value employment. 

If Pyongyang harbors hopes of forceful unification still (after precluding American involvement with threats of ICBM strikes on American soil,) then they'll need the asymmetric advantage of WMD-equipped ballistic missiles to overcome the conventional forces imbalance on the peninsula, especially to strike more distant ROK bases, transportation chokepoints and other military targets. (The DPRKs recent pursuit of long-range precision conventional fires such as the KN-09 300mm MLRS, and local Tochka derivative, the KN-02 - both of which are rumored to have optical scene-matching terminal guidance - lends strength to this suspicion. If Pyongyang's motives are strictly self-defense deterrence, then pouring scarce money into new precision capabilities instead of more mature, legacy counter-value systems capable of carrying the DPRK's heavy first-gen fission weapons makes little sense.) With nuclear warheads, even Scuds are tactically and operationally relevant weapons, not just counter-value assets - which suggests that at least some of the new bunkers, outside of the 136 Koksan bunkers so far identified are meant for dispersal of Scud TELs.

Which Bunkers Hold What?

Discovering where TELs might be is easiest to do by ruling out where they can't be - i.e. where they cannot fit, or cannot access. The dimensions of bunkers are an obvious starting point.

Outside the Koksan bunkers, two other types predominate - a “medium” bunker (measuring roughly four and a half to five meters wide, and thirteen to fourteen meters long,) and a “large” bunker with a six or seven meter width and a 17 to 18 meter length. Even with many bunkers floor plans open and visible during construction, solid measurements are a bit difficult due to various factors - slant angle distortion, shadows hiding the bases of walls, and above all the half-meter resolution of the free DigitalGlobe imagery that predominates in the Google Earth database. When considering the impact of interior wall thickness on overall internal dimensions, the resolution limits impose obvious problems in calculations. The figures given are an overall guesstimate produced over the course of identifying, measuring and cataloging many bunkers.

Can a North Korean Scud TEL fit in these? That depends on the TEL, which complicates matters because various TELs have been shown off in DPRK parades, owing to their need to import and improvise with whatever they can spirit past the sanctions. The length of a Scud missile puts a hard limit on length, however - 12 meters. And a great number of their extant Soviet-delivered stock (as displayed in parades) are likely the Maz-543, which gives us a width. Determining a turn radius required some hunting, but a variety of sources confirmed 15 meters as a reasonable approximation. (Interestingly, half that of the American HEMTT owing to the unique two-axle articulation.) Thus informed, one can analyze road access:

Once one begins sliding around a to-scale rectangle of cardboard around their screen making motor sounds with their mouth, the lesser glamour associated with the IMINT disciplines becomes apparent. Nonetheless, it's effective, and once practicalities are accounted for (such as room to open vehicle doors, and the icy nature of severe Korean winters) certain conclusions become more or less probable. As usual, there's always another wrinkle, such as North Korea's recently revealed tracked Scud TEL, but given the presumption of a mostly wheeled legacy fleet, broad conclusions can still be drawn.

Observing Patterns and Environs

Overall, some patterns emerged:

Every “medium bunker” site had road access that could accommodate a MAZ-543 TEL (though some were tight fits.)

“Large bunker” sites invariably had good road access, but not always sized to comfortably accommodate a MAZ-543's 3.06m wide TEL, even when it would've been easy to do so (see second image above.)

“Medium bunkers” are often associated with large, vehicle-capable tunnels (with widths, slopes and turn radii that can accommodate a MAZ-543 TEL) boring into presumed large garages or bases beneath hills or even mountains, facilities that the oldest imagery shows predates the 2009-2013 construction blitz.

“Large bunkers” are often associated with large nearby military bases with a preponderance of barracks, usually favor areas with flatter, wider-open terrain and are more often found very close to the DMZ (as little as four kilometers on occasion.)

This may imply:

The “medium bunkers” are dispersal bunkers for wheeled TELs, and perhaps for 240mm MLRS, which can be difficult to conclusively separate from the HARTs built for the latter system (predominantly distinguished by presence of firing revetments and shrapnel-shield dirt mounts in front of the entrances, as seen here.)

The “large bunkers” are meant for housing APCs, IFVs and supply vehicles for forward-positioned troops who might be called upon to drive on Seoul in event of war.

There's many caveats to these conclusions - the “medium” bunkers would accommodate a pair of 240mm MLRS (with room for reloads and accommodation for the crew as well) much more comfortably than a MAZ-543 (which can just about squeeze in with room for the driver to wiggle out,) to say nothing of the road access at some sites as well. Additionally, the “large” bunkers, aside from being a more comfortable fit, could provide room for extended crew accommodation (cots, stove, basic maintenance equipment, etc.) which would be of obvious use when TELs are dispersed in times of high tension - which may last indefinitely. Given the well known and longstanding concentration of American ISR capabilities near the DMZ, moving TELs around is something the KPA will try to avoid.

However, the preponderance of evidence seen across multiple sites impels me towards the above conclusions - especially in light of what the sudden bunker-building effort implies.

Deliberate Dispersal of High-Value Assets Away From Legacy Bases

Tangible information on the famous North Korean Hardened Artillery Shelter - outside of a single Nautilus publication from the late 80s and the occasional KCNA propaganda clip - is hard to come by. Looking at the sites themselves, however, reveals a multitude of types with varying protection - and that HARTs for self-propelled guns, including the Koksan, never provided overhead protection for guns  while they were actually firing. Indeed, some of the new Koksan bunker sites were built at already-extant Koksan battalion bases, with the gun sheds visible pre-2009 and the old firing revetments nearby still visible today. The bunker-building is almost certainly a reaction to the drastic shift in artillery effectiveness enabled by modern computer fire control and fast proliferation of cheap GPS guided shells with impressive accuracy, which render revetment protection mostly useless.

This strongly implies the other bunkers were also built as intelligent adaptations to changing ROK/US capabilities as well. Almost no information is available on North Korean missile bases (outside of a handful of badly outdated anecdotes from defectors and vague military press releases,) leaving us with naught but ludicrous claims of missile bases deeper than 1,000 feet (despite defector's testimony about the DPRK's inability to deal with the water table) that are nigh impregnable to all attack. Impregnable though the bunker may be, the exits are not so blessed:

As long as the bunker-busting bomb goes off on the right side of the blast door, the occupants will be unharmed (the image illustrates how the GBU-57 MOP subverts the bunker-builder's expectations in dramatic fashion.) But intact or not, a few tons of rock in your tunnel entrance complicates vehicular traffic some. A TEL that cannot sortie is a TEL that cannot fire. If DPRK missile bases are indeed buried deep under mountains, the last decade of rapid advances in precision standoff guidance weaponry and ever-more advanced and effective bunker-busting warhead design can be expected to compel rapid KPA efforts away from these newly vulnerable bottlenecks. 

Indeed, this seems to be the case. The facility I dubbed the “Kaesong Missile Base” features three generously-sized tunnels that lead under a sizable hill, and in historical imagery a 16-meter long vehicle is visible - almost certainly a Nodong missile on its TEL. Though the number of recently-dug bunkers in close proximity to this base are far more vulnerable than the under-mountain base, each must be attacked individually - a far higher burden on any would-be attacker than simply sealing every missile underground by hitting just three tunnel entrances. Given the short distances of the entire Korean theater, and conventional Allied military strength, by the time base occupants dig themselves out, they'll be in occupied territory. Thus the mass of the first retaliatory salvo is paramount. In light of modern weapons, this strongly favors dispersal of SRBM assets.

In light of this logic and the frequent observed association of pre-existing, TEL-accessible bases beneath hills and the “medium” sized bunkers, I find it highly plausible they're meant for dispersing SRBM launchers.

Conclusions

This document is informative; detailing the research and rationale that underlie the guesses offered within the .kmz file itself. I advance no argument from this data as-is, especially as the research is incomplete (in MLRS HARTs and hardened airbase facilities especially) and I must expose it to the criticism of the more experienced and informed before trusting it with such weight. However, a few simple conclusions are self-evident:

The DPRK is an alert, adaptive and responsive enemy who is keenly aware of allied counter-force abilities. The enemy is never idle.

From their decision to keep investing great money and effort into dispersal bunkers, despite concurrent investments in TEL mobility and the obviousness of construction efforts (for instance, amateurs can easily find them on Google Earth's low-res imagery) one may conclude they rate their chances of evading modern ROK/US ISTAR assets in a compact and terrain-constrained theater to be too low to ensure force survival alone.

Once the tracked TELs revealed this year are put into mass production, the counter-force targets will go from two-hundred odd wheeled SRBM TELs to more mobile, nimble and survivable TELs - and their already-mobile Scuds will be an order of magnitude more elusive.

In sum: time is short.

Commentary and questions best directed to my twitter, or use the anonymous “ask” box on this blog.

#north korea #counter-force #dprk #dprkorea #imint #north korea war

[bigyack-com]

Offside a sore point as VAR in full swing - football

Jose Mourinho was fuming. The Tottenham Hotspur manager launched a scathing attack on the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) following his team’s New Year’s Day 0-1 defeat to Southampton.“For me, the referees are not the referees,” said Mourinho. “The VAR should change their name because Video Assistant Referee is not true. It should be VR—Video Referee—because they are the referees. You see the refs on pitch and they not the refs, they are the assistants. The other guys in the office are the ones who make the big decisions.”The Portuguese was annoyed over a potential foul on midfielder Dele Alli inside the box in the first half that was not assessed by VAR. “What I know is the Dele Alli penalty was a penalty and the VAR didn’t interfere,” he added. “The direction it is taking us in is really, really wrong.”Mourinho’s anger is not unjustified.Since its debut in the 2019-20 Premier League season, the VAR has been the crux of debate despite clubs voting unanimously in favour of introducing a system which was to constantly monitor matches and would be used only for “clear and obvious errors” or “serious missed incidents”. More importantly, the final decision was to be “always taken by the on-field referee”.But has the VAR adhered to the predetermined rules in the five months of the season so far?Though it has its benefits, from coaches to fans, there have been several complaints about decision-making being arbitrary and inconsistent with the VAR being used for even the smallest margins and tightest calls for offside as if it were like a line-call challenge in tennis. To add to it, it has also interfered with the run of play with reviews and checks at the pitch-side monitor often halting the flow of the game and snatching the momentum of a team on attack.“I believe it could be time to remove offside decisions from the VAR process,” former Premier League referee Mark Clattenburg wrote in his Daily Mail column. “The excitement and spirit of the game is in danger of being damaged by the precise nature of the VAR technology when it comes to offside. So why not go back to assistant referees flagging for offside and we stick to their decision?”Every club has had decisions affect them, one way or the other, which was not supposed to be the case when VAR was first written into the laws of the game with the philosophy of “minimal interference, maximum benefit”.Fans were bewildered when VAR made another controversial decision on New Year’s Day by ruling out Jack Grealish’s goal against Burnley as Aston Villa striker Wesley Moraes’ heel was barely a millimetre in offside position. The goal was ruled out after a three-minute delay with VAR deliberating the offside. Similarly, more goals were ruled out earlier in the season due to these marginal offsides.“What fresh hell is this?” tweeted former England player and pundit Gary Lineker. “I never, ever thought I’d say this, but I genuinely feel sorry for the referees’ assistants. They’re pretty darn good at what they do and are being dreadfully undermined. Remember, level is onside.” The creeping discrepancies have even led the lawmakers of the game to comment that VAR shouldn’t be “too forensic” when it comes to offsides.“With VAR we see some things that are going in a direction that we may need to readjust,” International Football Association Board (IFAB), which determines the laws of football, general secretary Lukas Brud was quoted as saying by the BBC.“If you spend multiple minutes trying to identify whether it is offside or not, then it’s not clear and obvious and the original decision should stand. What we really need to stress is that ‘clear and obvious’ applies to every single situation that is being reviewed by the VAR or the referee. In theory, 1mm offside is offside, but if a decision is taken that a player is not offside and the VAR is trying to identify through looking at five, six, seven, 10, 12 cameras whether or not it was offside, then the original decision should stand.”Brud added that IFAB would reissue guidance on VAR’s use after its annual general meeting (AGM) in February.In a review by ESPN, it was seen that 58 goals or incidents were affected by the VAR in Premier League matches held till December 31, 2019. In total, 58 decisions were overturned with 16 resulting in goals and 32 disallowed, 10 were given as penalties while two were overturned.As many as 22 goals were ruled out for offside—including marginal ones—while six were awarded for incorrect offside, five goals were ruled out for handball while one allowed for a wrong handball decision.And when it comes to cards, VAR resulted in red cards for two while one was overturned.Teams like Norwich, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Wolves and Sheffield United all had their goals disallowed thanks to VAR last weekend with the latter suffering the most over the course of the season with seven decisions going against them. Technology is here to stay and would be unwise to change VAR rules right in the middle of the season and as former top flight referee Mark Halsey, who officiated in the Premier League from 1999 to 2013, told BBC that if VAR is “used correctly, it shouldn’t be a problem” Read the full article

#1sportsparkway #2junesportsnews #2sportsdrive1 #2sportsdriverunawaybay #2sportsguyswinnipeg #3news3sports #3sportsnewsinenglish #3sportspersonname #3gArtificialTurf #3GAstro #4junesportsnews #48HrTurnaround #4X4Driving #5ASideFootballLeeds #5A-side #5newssportsfortsmith #5sportsawardsinindia #5sportsperson #5sportsmanofindia #5-aSideFootball #5-a-sideFootballInAlton #5-a-sideFootballInReading #5-a-sideFootballInWatford #6ASide #6ASideFootball #6sportsfieldcrescent #6sportsteamswithsamename #7newssportsreporter #7sportslive #7sportsnewsmelbourne

[thisdaynews]

Premier League 2019-20: What are the trends of the season so far?

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Premier League 2019-20: What are the trends of the season so far?

We’re only days into September but more than 10% of the 2019-20 Premier League season has already been voraciously consumed.

Some things, like Liverpool and Manchester City pulling away from the rest, seem only too familiar.

But others, like the longing gaze at the video assistant referee (VAR) decision on the big screen and the new goal-kick rule, seem utterly new.

What, then, are the key trends from the opening few weeks of the season?

VAR has had less of an impact than you might think

The establishment of our new VAR overlords in Stockley Park was always going to make for an intriguing period but despite some high-profile reversals in the opening few weeks, it seems the officials have been determined the league’s new system of justice should not have too major an impact.

Who can forget the 2018 World Cup, which saw 29 penalties, shattering the record for a single tournament, as VAR honed in on grappling and barging?

This season, in the Premier League, there have been only nine spot-kicks awarded (a third of them to Manchester United), which is below average for the past 10 seasons.

Indeed, back in 2012-13 when video referees were the stuff of science fiction, seven penalties were awarded on the opening weekend alone.

It’s a similar story with red cards, with the five this season being only half as many as at this stage two seasons ago, and four fewer than last term.

How seasons compare after four weeks Season Penalties Red cards 2010-11 14 9 2011-12 15 7 2012-13 15 6 2013-14 11 5 2014-15 5 5 2015-16 8 11 2016-17 15 2 2017-18 5 10 2018-19 14 9 2019-20 9 5

Overall, of more than 30 incidents that have been played out on the big screen so far, only six decisions by the on-field officials have been overturned.

Intriguingly, two of those have ruled out goals for Manchester City striker Gabriel Jesus (away to West Ham and home to Tottenham) and those have been the interventions that have driven the most debate about the new system.

Tiny signs that the furious arguments may settle down as the season progresses were seen in matchweek four as only three incidents went to VAR and all of them backed the referee’s decision.

Good officiating or reluctance to cross to the leafy judgement palace of Stockley Park?

Maybe we need VAR for the VAR.

Brighton love playing out from the back as much as Man City

Another change for the Premier League (and football in general) in 2019-20 is the new goal-kick law.

Previously the ball had to be played outside of the penalty area before being touched by a team-mate, and in the long-ball era of the 1990s and before, this was not an issue.

A Mitre ball, pumped up harder than the surface of one of Jupiter’s moons, would be “distributed” upfield by a goalkeeper in remarkably high shorts and play would commence in the immediate vicinity of the halfway line.

Now goalkeepers can stroke a short one inside the box (I posit that this is the most unsettling visual change to football since the backpass law in 1992, it’s certainly taking longer to get used to than the one-man kick-offs) and stretch the play.

Proportionally, Manchester City’s Ederson jointly leads the way in short passes from goal-kicks with Brighton’s Mat Ryan (69%), but the Albion man heads the division in terms of raw numbers, with 22 of his goal-kicks being played to a team-mate inside the box, putting him just ahead of the north London pairing of Bernd Leno and Hugo Lloris.

At the other end of the spectrum, Watford’s Ben Foster has hit almost as many goal-kicks (two) to the other penalty area as he has in his own (three).

A few other goal-kick highlights include:

All of Ederson’s goal-kicks are either stylistic penalty-box modernism or absolutely gigantic pitch-length knocks. Truly a man for all seasons.

Liverpool’s Adrian really likes left-back Andrew Robertson.

Wolves keeper Rui Patricio is one of four keepers yet to attempt a goal-kick to a team-mate inside the box, along with Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson, Newcastle’s Martin Dubravka and Burnley’s Nick Pope. Patricio also loves the right-hand touchline, hardly befitting a man in the number 11 shirt.

West Ham’s Lukasz Fabianski tried a short goal-kick once but didn’t enjoy it and went back to the old style.

Salah really isn’t selfish

Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah tied for the Golden Boot on 22 goals last season, along with Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

The most memorable image of last weekend was Liverpool forward Sadio Mane’s fury after his substitution at Burnley.

The apparent cause was Mohamed Salah’s decision not to pass to his team-mate, which makes you wonder if sharing the Golden Boot last season was a source of irritation rather than collegiate pride, and has led to the resumption of one of 2018-19’s most facile debates: is Salah selfish?

Given that Salah has scored or assisted 77 goals in 78 Premier League appearances for Liverpool, and that this is the first time in the club’s top-flight history that they’ve won their opening four league games for two seasons in a row, it is fantastically unlikely that Jurgen Klopp cares one bit.

Even so, is Salah selfish? Well, there’s no definitive way of judging this but a reasonable proxy is surely the ratio of big chances created by a player to the big chances he’s taken himself.

Of course, there’ll be plenty of the former where the only real option was to pass to a better-placed team-mate, and lots of the latter where he himself was in that position just described, but even so, a deviously selfish player’s ratio of created-to-taken would surely be unbalanced, and as the table below shows, Salah’s is anything but.

Player (August 2018-now) Big chances created Big chances for himself Ratio

Premier League only

Ryan Fraser 29 8 3.6 chances created to chances for himself David Silva 19 11 1.7 Eden Hazard 18 18 1 Mohamed Salah 17 36 0.5 Kevin de Bruyne 17 1 17 Andrew Robertson 16 0 – James Maddison 15 8 1.9 Trent Alexander-Arnold 15 1 15 Raul Jimenez 14 21 0.7 Callum Wilson 13 32 0.4 Raheem Sterling 13 27 0.5 Gylfi Sigurdsson 13 16 0.8

Hats off to the departed Eden Hazard, who managed to achieve a zen-like 1:1 rate last season, but Salah’s ratio of one big chance created for every two for himself is the same as Raheem Sterling in the same period, and few people are calling the Manchester City man greedy.

Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold appear on this list of most big chances created, naturally, but where are Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane, presumed victims of Greedy Salah’s Monstrous Appetite?

Firmino’s numbers are very similar to Salah’s, with 10 chances created, and 21 for himself for a ratio of 0.48, but Mane’s are nine created and 29 for himself (0.31), meaning that in this semi-scientific study it is the supposed victim of the selfishness who is the least generous of all.

In truth, though, those numbers just reveal how stellar Liverpool’s front three are. Double up on one and the other two will destroy you. Divert all your resources to stopping them and watch as you open up oceans of space for the two full-backs.

In attacking terms this is gluttony more than greed.

It’s probably too early to look at the table. Maybe

If you believe those who can remember the old days then not only did nobody even glimpse a league table until mid-autumn but even expressing an interest in how the division was shaping up was an actual criminal offence.

The late 1980s was a world where live television coverage of England’s top flight only started in October once the clocks had gone back, on the genuine reasoning that people would only fully concentrate on First Division football once the opportunity for gardening had been reduced.

Now we luxuriate in the table at half-time on the opening day, and why not. The three highest points totals in English top-flight history have occurred since May last year so not looking at the standings early on is tantamount to missing the first act of a play.

As we learned above, Liverpool have won their opening four in consecutive seasons for the first time (and only the fifth time overall), while City have averaged 9.2 points in their opening four games this decade, last losing against Mark Hughes’ Stoke back in 2014.

Ten points from four has been enough for Pep Guardiola in each of the past two campaigns, so the two-point gap to Liverpool won’t be concerning him yet.

Elsewhere, this season was the first since the 1950s to see 15 or more teams on exactly one win after three games and the first time since the early 1980s that there had been 19 or more teams with at least three points after three games.

After getting thumped 5-0 and 4-0 respectively on the opening weekend, West Ham and Chelsea are showing signs of bouncing back.

No team has let in five in their opening game and finished in the top six since 1913-14, while the last team to let in four on the first day and win the title were Everton in 1984-85.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have already drawn as many league games – two – this season as they did in the whole of 2018-19.

What does it all mean? At this stage, I’m afraid it, er, may be too early to tell.

Read More

#season #trends

[sportsleague365]

1) Shaw puts Salah in the shadeLuke Shaw’s display at Old Trafford was his best for Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjær, according to the interim manager. To see Mohamed Salah replaced on 79 minutes was all the evidence required. Solskjær said: “[When] they take Mohamed Salah off you know Luke Shaw has played a good game.” The left-back was a blur of defensive obstinacy. Solskjær said Salah’s threat meant Shaw could not attack as much as desired and this is understandable given the forward’s quality. But the prevailing caveat regarding Shaw’s contribution in most games is that he does not create enough when roving forward. If Shaw can add more overlapping play, crosses and bursts into the area then United will have an extra dimension and the potential that got him the move five years ago from Southampton will have finally been realised. Jamie Jackson • Match report: Manchester United 0-0 Liverpool Solskjær questions Liverpool’s treatment of Rashford – video 2) Hazard central to Chelsea’s improved displayLeaving Gonzalo Higuaín on the bench until extra-time appeared bad faith in a big-name striker signed on an 18-month loan with attendant hefty wages. But with Eden Hazard as a central attacker, and Pedro and Willian flanking, Maurizio Sarri selected the trio who dug in for December’s 2-0 defeat of City. This display was as solid as Chelsea have looked since and Hazard was licensed to exhibit his individual genius. The Belgian may be reluctant to play centrally but Sarri was in little position for taking a long-term view. With former manager José Mourinho, working as a TV pundit, unhelpfully reminding viewers of the broadcaster DAZN Spain that Hazard has “the talent and personality to wear the Real Madrid shirt”, Chelsea’s star may not be around beyond the short term. If Sunday was his final Wembley appearance for Chelsea, he graced the occasion; his Panenka shootout penalty was an impudent beauty. John Brewin • Match report: Manchester City 0-0 Chelsea (City won 4-3 on pens) 3) Ranieri confounds over SessegnonAt half-time, Claudio Ranieri removed Ryan Sessegnon and Jean Michaël Seri: the latter because he might have otherwise been sent off, the former because the manager remains unconvinced by one of the brightest young talents in the country. Many things have gone wrong for Fulham this season, some of them out of their control, but the treatment of Sessegnon is increasingly curious. At 18 Sessegnon is not the answer to all their problems, but the issue is that he is not even being given the chance. Having set up their goal against West Ham with a forceful low cross and generally been their most threatening player, to take him off at the interval was baffling. It was hardly a surprise that, despite having the better of the second half, they could not create any clear chances, much less score a goal. Nick Miller • Match report: West Ham 3-1 Fulham Ryan Sessegnon reacts during Fulham’s 3-1 defeat to West Ham. Photograph: Peter Cziborra/Action Images via Reuters The Fiver: sign up and get our daily football email. 4) Nuno on hi-tech – and low cunningOn the face of it, Wolves’ 1-1 draw at Bournemouth was a perfect advert for VAR. There were three dubious penalties and another that might have been given to Wolves for handball by Chris Mepham. But of the four, only Ivan Cavaliero’s foul on Ryan Fraser – which was outside the area, and might not have been a foul anyway – was close to the “clear and obvious error” that is theoretically required for a decision to be overturned. The rest were all subjective. Though VAR in the Premier League will increase the number of correct decisions, it will also heighten the sense of injustice at the debatable ones. Once technology is used, players have a much greater entitlement to the correct decision – or, rather, the decision they perceive to be correct. The issue was summed up by the Wolves head coach, Nuno Espírito Santo, when he was asked whether the reaction of his players to certain decisions showed they were hard done by. “I don’t know,” he said. “You cannot always trust the reaction of the players – sometimes they cheat.” The biggest problem with technology will always be humans. Rob Smyth • Match report: Bournemouth 1-1 Wolves 5) Manchester City women go ContinentalManchester City, having fallen apart this time last year from a similarly unbeaten starting point, have found the answer to staying competitive across the board and their blueprint may well be one Arsenal will pore over come the summer even if the Gunners stumble first across the finish line in the league. Arsenal have been bullish in their assertion that the league, and Champions League, have been their priority. Yet City have shown this season that compromising one trophy for another does not have to be a given. “We knew that we wanted to still be in the FA Cup, we’ve done that; we wanted to stay top of the league, we’ve done that; and to come here and win the third game of the week shows what a great squad we have, the great staff we have behind us and all the great work people don’t see,” said City’s captain, Steph Houghton. Suzanne Wrack • Match report: Manchester City 0-0 Arsenal (City won 4-2 on pens) Manchester City celebrate beating Arsenal in the Continental League Cup final penalty shootout Photograph: Chloe Knott/Man City via Getty Images 6) Reversal puts Hasenhüttl in a fixWhen Southampton ended Arsenal’s 22-match unbeaten run on 16 December at St Mary’s – in Ralph Hasenhüttl’s second game in charge – it was a performance and occasion that teemed with intensity; a clear example of a new-manager bounce. At the Emirates on Sunday, the most striking aspect of the club’s 2-0 defeat was their flatness and fragility. Hasenhüttl had enjoyed two clear weeks to prepare for it after the home loss to Cardiff but his team conceded the goals early on and fell apart. They could have leaked four or five by half-time. Individual errors remain a massive problem and can Hasenhüttl legislate for those? But the broader picture is two points from an available 12 and a group of players that look inhibited. Hasenhüttl appeared to have the weight of the world on his shoulders afterwards. He has to find a way to unlock the tension. David Hytner • Match report: Arsenal 2-1 Southampton Photograph: Chesnot/Getty Images Europe7) Turf Moor’s elephant in the cornerThe presence of VAR was also felt at Turf Moor – though there is no truth in the rumour that it would have sorted out the confusion over the award of the corner that led to Burnley’s first goal against Tottenham. VAR is not going to be wheeled out next season for every toss-of-a-coin line decision in the course of a game and in any case, given that there was still room for debate even after several slow-motion replays of Jan Vertonghen and Jeff Hendrick sliding over the line together, there was no clear and obvious mistake. Mike Dean’s decision became important in the context of the game because a goal resulted from the set piece, but VAR cannot be used in hindsight either. Even if an amount of guesswork on the part of the referee was necessarily involved, Tottenham should still have defended the corner better. Paul Wilson • Match report: Burnley 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur 8) Gerard Deulofeu is coming of ageGerard Deulofeu has promised much but failed to deliver since his arrival on English shores with as a fresh-faced 18-year-old with Everton in 2013 – yet could he finally be coming of age after his dazzling hat-trick left Cardiff City stunned? Growing up in Lionel Messi’s shadow cannot be easy, especially after he was given one final shot at Camp Nou last season. But the shackles were off on Friday night as the Spaniard used the Cardiff City Stadium as his playground to lay bare Cardiff’s defensive frailties. Playing around Troy Deeney, his irrepressible movement terrified Sean Morrison and co, and he had the cool head and firepower to make his chances count. His maturity in front of goal allowed him to pick out the bottom corner before calmly finishing a pair of one-on-ones. So could this be the game where Deulofeu proved he is ready to become one of the Premier League’s better performers or will it prove to be another false dawn? James Candy • Match report: Cardiff City 1-5 Watford Gerard Deulofeu celebrates Watford’s fourth goal, scored by Troy Deeney, against Cardiff. Photograph: James Marsh/BPI/REX/Shutterstock 9) Free-wheeling Zaha pays homage to HodgsonRoy Hodgson celebrated becoming the oldest person to manage in the Premier League by witnessing his side dismantle Leicester. Having worked across Europe, Hodgson has learned how to get the best out of players of all styles and ages. The 71-year-old has finely tuned Wilfried Zaha since arriving at Selhurst Park, giving his star man the freedom he requires to earn points. There were another two goals for the winger on Saturday, making it the first time Zaha has scored in three consecutive Premier League games, earning praise from Hodgson who says Zaha is benefiting from concerted team effort to score more and, ironically, being liberated by having a central striker. Zaha proclaimed on Instagram: “Today’s win is for you gaffer,” alongside a photo of a smiling Hodgson. They might use different platforms to show their mutual admiration, but they are certainly getting the best out of each other. Will Unwin • Match report: Leicester 1-4 Crystal Palace 10) Lejeune brings comfort to NewcastleNewcastle fans welcomed Miguel Almirón to Tyneside with a special “Wor Almirón” banner and, in return, the £21m Paraguay playmaker brought searing pace, smart swivels and slick passes to the party. He and Salomón Rondón competed for man of the match honours, with the midfielders Sean Longstaff and Isaac Hayden not far behind. But one man’s influence should not be underestimated. Newcastle’s shaky start to the season coincided with Florian Lejeune being sidelined with a ruptured cruciate ligament but since the centre-half’s return they have improved appreciably. Lejeune is an excellent defender whose comfort on the ball, technical assurance and vision enables Rafael Benítez’s 5-4-1 formation to switch seamlessly to an attacking 3-4-3. His party trick is switching play courtesy of long diagonal passes and the latest example prefaced Rondón scoring the first goal against 10-man, all but relegated, Huddersfield. Louise Taylor • Match report: Newcastle 2-0 Huddersfield Source link The post Premier League, Carabao Cup and Continental Cup: 10 talking points | Football appeared first on 10z Soccer. #CarabaoCup #PremierLeague #ManchesterCityWomen

#CarabaoCup #PremierLeague #ManchesterCityWomen

[pureirishnonsense]

Continuity

((A brief Horus Heresy ficlet I wanted to write about an old War Chieftess reminicsing about the Imperial Palace during the Heresy. Also, stealing @sisterofsilence‘s Tribune for this, cause I’m a Hack!))

--------------------------------------------

The cold air of the Himalazia  served to rouse her from sleep. She blinked awake, focusing with a murmur of the machinery that made up her eyes. Her vision flashed green for a moment, motion sensors agitating, and she glanced at the windows. The curtains, heavy velvet drapes that kept the weak Terran light from her room, flowed and rose in the winds, and Veral rose to sit up. Her body, lithe and ancient, had been kept strong by rejuvenant treatments and augmetics, but these bitter mornings in Terra’s highest reaches made her feel so very old.

And she was old, she reminded herself as she pushed herself from her bed, shifting the thick duvet off, and stepping onto the slippers by her bedside. The cut marble slabs that made up the palace floor were beautiful… but no one enjoyed stepping onto winter cold stone in the early hours of the morning.

With a red robe over her night wear, and her loose grey hair bound up into a tail, Lady Veral, a former Steppe-Chieftess of the Urals Region, took her morning walk along the Palace Parapet.

She had gotten used to what Dorn’s Fists had done to the once glorious Palace. Though she had seen the Palace Holy go from a stone bastion set at the seat of the Mountains, to a once grand expanse over the course of two centuries. The new vista of cannons and armoured towers left her somewhat disheartened. The Imperium had fallen so far.

She could still remember the day the Emperor and his Golden Warriors had come to her Clan’s Steppe-Fort, had brokered terms. She had heard word, brought by refugees, by war survivors and fleeing soldiers, that some Great Host had been conquering the barbarous warlords and dynasts of Terra, fighting with an army of Gene-bulked Killers, led by a Golden Company. This had been some centuries in, towards the last, latter years of Unification.

Chieftess Veral had safeguarded her people and carved a sanctuary for them far to the North West of the new Emperor’s domain, but He had not been blind to her Clan’s presence. Nor was He blind to the presence of nearly forty other Clans, all housed near the Urals. Veral had been one of seven Clans who had chosen to bend the knee before the Emperor- a memory that no longer carried shame, after two centuries of seeing His vision. The other thirty odd clans had faced warriors in armour of a seething, hissing make. She had not been surprised that none had survived, not when she had learned these were to become His Legions

She had seen the children of Clans be selected to undergo the Trials to become the Emperor’s Legionaries, seen mothers and fathers weeping as their children were taken. The words of this… aloof, distant Monarch did little to salve their fears and torments. Even she had found it hard to swallow this. No parent could ever bare to see the pain of another in losing their child

Veral’s own child, at the age of twelve, had been taken too… when she had next seen him, thirty years later, he was unrecognizable. Armoured in grey and white, with a collared hound etched upon his shoulder, she had not known it was her son until she had read the Lists of Honour. He had been proud faced, returned from the Compliances in the Outer Sol reaches, before being sent off into the vastness for the Great Crusade.

She had not wept. She was proud. He had lived, and was making this grand vision a reality. So she put her pain aside, and went on with her new duties, as offered by the Sigillite.

She was fond of Malcador, in a way. He was cunning, insightful and had a deep abiding respect for the other Ancients who had seen the Imperium rise. It was a comfort to think on, as she made her way along a once cloistered parapet, to stand at a balcony. It had once afforded her a view of the great minarets and spires and the lazulite decoration of Annapurna Gate. It had been something to take in when that grand gate had gone up, to see the way daylight would shine on it.

Now… now in Terra’s bleak morning, Dorn had replaced it with a great bastion gate of uncaring adamantium, veined with void shield generators, marked with gun cloches and cannon emplacements. Now, in place of a gemstone’s iridescence, there was the harsh glare of active shields being tested every half hour.

She sighed, and made her way to the Tranquil City. At least there, at least near that serene court, there was none of Dorn’s work.

----

Dressed in the crimson surcoat and quilted underarmour suit of household guard, Veral looked significantly more comfortable, more at ease. She downed the caffiene- some fine ground thing that she had made thick and sludgy with sugar- and began to make her way through the packed palace promenades to Malcador’s next lengthy, unnecessary meeting. They debated how best to defend against the Traitors, and Veral had taken to vouching for an unpopular decision.

She could hear, however, the sound of active Power Armour. Not the deep joint-snarl of Legion plate, but the waspish, imperious hum of Aurumite Battle Plate, the warsuits of the Legio Custodes.

Tribune Arlette, Wing Commander of the Custodes, and confidante of the Emperor, was pacing in frustration, marching along one of the cloistered sections of the Ennara tower walks. Her expression, whilst almost neutral, showed the Custodian’s quiet exasperation. The way her fingers clenched on the Guardian Spear, were all tells that the legendary patience of a Custodes had been worn down.

It may have been the stress of the Heresy that was unfolding, or the Secret War that the Ten Thousand and the Oblivion Knightesses were conducting under the Imperial Palace. Veral had no knowledge of it, save the number of Servitors, Mechanicus thralls and munition trains that had gone under the Palace. And she had rarely seen Custodes emerge from it, in armour rent and sundered in countless, impossible ways.

Arlette was a striking woman, and her position in the Golden Legion leant her a degree of autonomy. But she had been fighting that secret war for so long, it felt… wrong for her to be upon the parapets here. Veral could see some faint bruising, the discolouration of broken blood vessels and the marks of trauma upon Arlette’s face. It was as if something had struck her in the mouth.

Veral made the gesture of the Fist of Unity, which Arlette returned, gauntlet clammering to the ornate breastplate that was her authority. Towering over twice the height of the old Chieftess, Arlette stared down from the harsh, decorated gorget, meeting the gaze of the Ural’s old War Lady.

“Guard Captain,” Arlette said, her voice a little harsh, as if her throat had been worn raw. “It has been some time. Regent Malcador is convening the next Council in his personal chambers.”

Veral nodded, and finished her cup of Caffiene- nearly cold in the high air of the mountain palace- and she idled the cup between her fingers. “I am. The Household Guard are finding the Fists a difficult prospect to work with, and my proposals for the War are not… popular ones.”

In the light of dawn, Arlette’s smile gleamed, a knowing smirk. She rested her spear against her shoulder guard, and smiled. “Not many people are keen to overturn the Decree of Nikea, Captain. Some believe the Psyker may be the root of his Heresy.”

Veral glanced over the ruined Palace, at the bunkers and gun emplacements and batteries and void shields. She breathed in the cold air, and her fingers- augmetics of beautiful craftsmanship rather than flesh and bone- clenched on the stone. “But the reports we’ve read… Of Warp abominations, the enemy employing… profaned means of war. I believe Guilliman wrote in his treatises that we cannot shy away from any method, any tool or weapon, if its exclusion spells defeat,” the Old Chieftess said, leaning on the balcony, staring out over the grey scape of militant Imperial Defense.

Arlette ran a gloved thumb over her jawline, ignoring the faint throb of pain that throbbed through her bruised lips and cheek. “That is a pearl of wisdom from the Thirteenth,” she murmured. “One that would be easily open to abuse, and the quotes of another’s authority may not seem the strongest argument.” Arlette strode over to look at the ruin of her home.

“The wisdom behind the statement must be heeded though, Lady Tribune,” she breathed. “Lord Dorn and Architect Singh have followed that mentality, destroying the Palace so it may be made a fortress to spite Lupercal’s ambition.”

The Custodian had to catch the acid remark that had rolled up in response. But Veral had a point. One inelegantly underlined by the vista before them.

“I fear you may be right, Chieftess,” Arlette said, regarding the ancient Captain. 

In this clearer light, Veral turned to look at the Tribune, could see the damage, the scars on her armour. She could see clearly the faint blossom of healing bruises upon her face.

“The Secret War. How goes it?” she asked, in quiet, conspiratorial tones. She was… concerned for Arlette- and the notion of being worried over a Custodian seemed almost funny. It was the sorrow and the injuries that stole humour from it.

It seemed, for a moment, that Arlette would not speak of it. She seemed hesitant, as if speaking of it would somehow doom them. When she answered, it was soft, low and almost unheard.

“We still stand. We resist. We shall always hold,” she murmured. “Do not ask more. For this is Our War, Chieftess.” She smiled a little, and hefted up her spear.

“Sadly, I must bid you goodbye. An Imperial Fist officer is about deliver the ten thousandth request to access the Tranquil City, and I must deliver to him my firm dismissal of that motion.”

Veral’s laughter was a hearty bark, as solid as a bolter, and she pushed back from the balcony, hand on her sabre belt. “And I must endure several hours of boredom. I wish you victory in your battles, Tribune. “

“And I wish you luck with yours, Lady Veral.”

#Warhammer 40000 #Fan stuff #It's Dumb! But Fun!

[zeroviraluniverse-blog]

Borussia Dortmund trying to reverse ugly track record in Europe this season

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Borussia Dortmund trying to reverse ugly track record in Europe this season

On Thursday, Borussia Dortmund will try to overturn a 2-1 deficit from their home leg away to FC Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League to reach the quarterfinal.

“I read today that my job will also be on the line,” BVB coach Peter Stoger quipped at Wednesday’s news conference, adding: “Which is why I’m trying to leave a good impression in this news conference.”

The Dortmund coach’s gallows humour is a cool way of dealing with the headlines ahead of Thursday’s clash. However, given that his contract is only dated until the end of the season and the club bosses are far from prematurely making the appointment of the 51-year-old Austrian more permanent, Stoger’s European performances will impact that decision.

Overall, the Black and Yellows are boasting an atrocious track record in Europe this season. After setting a negative record by only picking up two points in a Champions League group with Real Madrid, Tottenham and Cypriot minnows APOEL, the German outfit has not done significantly better in the Europa League.

A 3-2 last-second come-from-behind win at home to Atalanta is the only victory from nine international showings this campaign. In the return leg, BVB were fortunate enough to profit from a goalkeeper error to reach the round of 16 in what was yet another drab performance.

The home leg against Salzburg was marked by yet another half-hearted display by Dortmund, who were exposed by a team with inferior individual quality yet a superior tactical concept — an attribute that was once used to describe a rampant BVB side that made their way to the Champions League final in 2013.

Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund/Getty Images

“Salzburg’s concept is based on transition attacks, they lurk for second balls. We were not up to their standard in the first leg. We were also not creative enough to create a rich amount of scoring chances.” Stoger said.

Dortmund boasted 64.8 percent possession yet did not look like a dominant side. It might be BVB’s biggest weakness under Stoger that the team cannot find many solutions via possession football. Salzburg underscored that fact in the first leg and it ought to be a warning to CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke and sporting director Michael Zorc who need to ponder the club’s long-term future. The Austrian league leaders won’t be the last team Dortmund face who are comfortable with less possession.

Stoger added: “Obviously, turning the tie around isn’t an impossible task but a much better performance is required.”

Though at this point, the question has to be asked how much should Dortmund even want to continue their European adventure? Obviously, professional footballers — and especially those playing for BVB — should always have the ambition to win every match and every competition they are in. But in the bigger picture, achieving the Champions League qualification for 2018-19 is more important for the club than a deep run in the Europa League. Realistically, Dortmund’s chances to lift the trophy into Lyon on May 16 are very slim and the race for the Bundesliga’s top-four spots is mighty close with second-placed Schalke and fifth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt being only four points adrift.

The Westphalians required a sizeable portion of luck to come away with all three points on Sunday against Frankfurt, as Michy Batshuayi’s magnificent strike at the death of the game made the crucial difference.

The 3-2 win did not only see a brace by the Chelsea-loanee, who was benched for the first 60 minutes due to feeling tiredness after playing seven games within 35 days, but also saw a reinvigorated Christian Pulisic.

The 19-year-old U.S. international had come off the bench in four of BVB’s previous five games before returning to the starting lineup on Sunday. The winger forced an own goal and set up Batshuayi in what arguably was his best game since the turn of the year.

Stoger had maligned his team’s lack of movement in the home defeat to Salzburg. Though tactics might have played a major role in the loss, one cannot deny that Dortmund’s attack also lacked freshness.

It looks as though, the strain of the Europa League takes a toll on the individual class of the likes of Batshuayi and Pulisic. The latter has played 2,434 minutes for Dortmund this season — only Roman Burki and Sokratis Papastathopoulos have seen more time on the field but have done considerably less running.

It ought to not be the mindset of any professional sportsman, but for the sake of having fresher minds and legs in the chase for a top-four league finish, Dortmund should maybe sacrifice the Europa League at this point on Thursday.

#Football

[l-in-c-future]

Reading Kim Jong Nam (8)-My father Kim Jong Il, and I :exclusive interviews with Kim Jong Nam by Yoji Gomi

Political Reform B-the dilemma of ending the hereditary succession

Obviously, Kim Jong Nam had taken a great risk of his own personal life to voice out his opposition against the hereditary rule in the Hermit Kingdom at the time when he and those people clustered around him who represented relatively moderate and liberal mindsets had once hoped that Kim Jong Il would leave behind a legacy for opening up North Korea when he considered his successor.

But the dilemma is if Kim Jong Nam’s proposed immediate cessation of the hereditary rule had taken place, there would be nobody within the existing ruling Kim family or within the party to drive and oversee the reform. During his interviews, Kim Jong Nam had openly excluded himself as one of the possible successor candidates on the list. Probably he said it to reduce his political rivals’ suspicion or he didn’t really mean what he said, the fact is somebody had to drive it from within the party. Who could be that person if there is an absent of reformists’ head?

Kim indicated that his father had indicated he also opposed to the hereditary rule to last at the 3rd generation more than once in the past. If there was any reason to cause Kim Jong Il to continue the monarchy of Kim family, he probably considered the ‘internal unique circumstances’ of Chosin and therefore as his father’s son, he had no choice but to obey such decision.

What are the ‘internal unique circumstances’ that practically forced Kim Jong Il to continue the hereditary tradition even though as a believer of fundamentalist socialism he knew that a de facto hereditary monarchy isn’t consistent with a typical Stalin-Lenin socialist model of collective autocratic leadership model?

In the emails exchanges, Kim provided some possible clues to the answers.

1. The Kim dynasty was constructed not as a pure blood Soviet and China or other communist regimes’ collective autocracy power concentration within the communist party, it was based on the historical past of Korean history: up to before the Japan invasion, there had ALWAYS been a feudal or some co-existing feudal monarchies as ruling regimes on the peninsula. When Kim Jung Il’s father Kim Il Song hosted his guerillas' band against the then Japan colonial government, his legitimacy call was a nationalistic call for the Koreans to resist and overturn the occupying Japanese government. As Kim Il Song spent a lot of his earlier part of life in China while he fled from the Japan government, the macro-picture happened in China and Russia that shaped the futures of these two countries obviously bear important impacts on what the path of Kim Il Song. In China, he came across Communists but in China, he also witnessed the changing faces of China as the feudal Qing broke down. He saw the ultimate rise of Mao Zedong became the new de facto king of the ‘new’ China under the communist party China. China and Korea shared close connections for thousands of years, the Korea peninsula had been part of China’s annexed territory or her protectorate until other external powers weaken such control. When Kim witnessed the success of Mao’s new de facto ruling as a one man dominated king within the communist party, obviously this would mold what Kim Il Song’s design for a ‘new’ Korea. China was keen to have her miniature regime to be restored back in the peninsula in order to see the revival of China’s control over the future rulers.

Notably, Kim Jong Nam had avoided the sensitive questions regarding China’s view on NK’s hereditary succession diplomatically but the FACT is even CCP is ruling in substance by mimicking feudal heritage through Maoism. In the presence, CCP is tilting away from collective leadership model to a strongman leadership model around the “Xi clustered core”. What else could he say about China? What else could he say because he was totally dependent upon China’s provision and protection?

“I didn’t know the Chinese government’s view. Even I have my personal view, it is inconvenient for me to openly express such view because it is a highly sensitive topic.”

Though Kim Jong Nam said even though Mao Zedong did not adopt a hereditary succession model in CCP (likely he said this because he felt he had to praise China as the latter’s protection subject or he did not know enough about CCP), he did not mention the fact that THERE IS ANOTHER KIND OF HEREDITARY SUCCESSION MODEL WITHIN THE SO-CALLED COLLECTIVE AUTOCRACY LEADERSHIP REGIME OF CHINA. The existence of red aristocracy class within CCP is such evidence. These people are referred as the second generation of red heritage, nicknamed as the Princes’ party within the party. They are the children and descendants of the founding members, elders, military leaders of senior leaders of the first generation CCP leaders. The red princes and princesses within CCP not only take up senior leadership positions within the party, the government, they all control various State-owned enterprises as well as large ‘private’ enterprises in China. These enterprises are the flat ships and devices for the aristocrats to extort and embezzle money and assets. They are the spaceships for CCP to compete and extend their global empire. Notably, the current leader of China is from the Princes’ party.

2. Emphasis of pure blood lineage of “Baekdu shan”

Essentially, for an inherited monarchy, the pureness of blood lineage becomes a critical issue to establish the legitimacy of the successors. Baekdu Shan (means white/snowy head mountain) or Chengbai Shan (name of the same mountain range in China) has always been a legendary sacred place among Manchurians and Korean culture that it was a place where god and goddess live. The crater lake at the top of Changbai Shan is called Heavenly Lake in Chinese. It was an exclusive bathing basin for the queen of heaven. Near the heavenly lake was a smaller crater lake called little heaven lake and that was a piece of makeup mirror for the heavenly fairies. All royal nobles must be born there (For example, the founding rulers of Qing Dynasty Aisin Gioro shared same folklore that their ancestry lines came from the same mountain). In order to justify Kim Il Song as a ‘divinely’ king from heaven, his subjects made up a story that he was born at Baekdu Shan. The reality was his ancestors were just graveyard guards. Kim Il Song was born in Russia and he were sent to China to learn Chinese medicine (but he never really received any much formal education beyond primary school though he and the Qinlin province government claimed or faked he had ‘graduated’ from a famous local secondary school) because Kim Il Song’s father was too poor to even support him. Ironically, all the highly educated ancestors came from Kim family’s maternal lineage including the family clans of Kim Il Song’s mother and Kim Jong Nam’s ill fate mother.

In the email 3rd Nov 2010, Kim wrote to Gomi:

“The existence of 3 generations hereditary succession is unprecedented apart from the feudal dynasties in history. According to common sense reasonable judgments, everybody shares the same feelings that such reality is definitely not in accordance with a socialist society.

Also, I believe my father, who originally opposed to hereditary succession to the 3rd generation had changed his mind because of internal ruling reason. My personal understanding is for those Chosin people who believe and bow to the so-called the purity of Baekdu Shan bloodline, if the successor of Chosin doesn’t have such pure lineage, this might cause big troubles to the nation.

My judgment is that even though Chosin may want to move toward a collective leadership model if it doesn’t center around the notion of Baekdu Shan lineage, it will be hard for the regime to maintain legitimacy. After considering the uniqueness of Chosin’s internal situation, if the insistent continuation of hereditary rule is for the sake of maintaining internal stability, I must obey.

..............

I didn’t say Chosin will collapse.”

Kim suggested that in the North, the society is still living in a feudal era mentality. Communism is just a tool to serve the autocracy means of any feudal dynasty. If it wasn’t communism or socialism, it would be something else that the Kim family created to justify the existence of de facto feudal monarchy.

To maintain and reinforce the ‘pureity’ of the Kim Dynasty, Kim Il Song had leveraged the Soviet model of personal cult worship mingled with the worship of kings as heavenly rulers from Asian culture through intensive indoctrination of  Juche. 

At the 4th Party Conference held in April 2012, Kim Jong-un further defined Juche as the comprehensive thought of Kim Il-sung, developed and deepened by Kim Jong-il, therefore terming it as "Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism" and that it was "the only guiding idea of the party" and nation. (Wikipedia)  

3. There were strong opposition within the Party

In the same length email, Kim wrote:

“Despite these are my personal view, but I deeply doubted how many those assisted my father and his successor really care the people of North Korean’s living from the bottom of their hearts? Regrettably, from what I observed, the reality is there are not many of such people. Those treacherous officials and ministers worked tirelessly to flatter and extol in order to keep their positions and maintain their own luxury lives. Their lying about the state of affairs in the country had forged barriers between the supreme leader and the successor and the citizens. I really wish these people pissed off from my father and the successor! I consider they are not contributory to the future of North Korea and my father’s successor.”

His frequent sharp accusations and rebukes had offended and even seen as endangering the status quo privileges of many corrupted cadres within the party. In order to protect their stakes of interests, these people might have directly or indirectly inflaming Kim Jong Nam’s biggest political rival-his estranged half brother Kim Jong Un to plot numerous assassination against him. 

In fact, when Gomi first published a shorter version of interview based on his first 7 emails exchanges between Kim, the latter had found an excuse to cut off the communication for 3 years before the communication resumed.

During these no communication period, Gomi learned from news of various failed attempts of Kim Jong Nam’s assassination while he was overseas.

In another email on 2nd of April 2011, Kim wrote:

“ I don’t want to go into arguments with those narrow-minded sides of people who cannot take sincere advice and recommendations. I worried that might put me into a dangerous situation.”

“ Please publish all your drafts when you can wait till that day North Korea changes.”

Shortly after Gomi published the details of their first face to face interview, Kim Jong Nam indicated that he was severely warned and pressured by Chosin. More than once he implied that he was under some kinds of intensively monitoring or surveillance that forced him to keep a low profile and stop accepting public media interview.

The last time Gomi and Kim met in May 2011 at Beijing when being asked about his brother Kim Jong Un and the future of NK, Jong Nam smiled bitterly, “ nothing will be changed, nothing can change.”

The desperation came from the fact that North Korea can’t change without her major regional superpowers Russia and China which played dominating molding powers to Korea first go through political reforms away from autocracy, and hopefully, they may have such political will to steer NK towards a more open society. Obviously, nobody sees this in near future.

But why did Kim said “I don’t say Chosin will collapse.” in such context?

The only possible reason is if USA and the West can have the same wisdom they did 40 years ago to pull NK to their side as they pulled China to their side when USA discovered China had broken up with or was in an enstranged relationship with USSR.

North Korea has been in deteriorating relationship with China, especially after the death of Kim Jong Il. Their leaders never meet each other once. Kim Jong Un challenged China more than once by displaying ‘bad boy’ behaviors despite China had ‘complied with’ UN resolutions to sanction NK.

At the same time, Kim had shown limited but symbolic embracing USA through the basketball player. People who have visited Pyongyang formed an impression that Kim Jong Un unofficially allows limited black markets of private tradings, at least at Pyongyang, a living modern way of lifestyle is tolerated. These may be weak signals that beyond the tough saliva wars by all parties and the rockets striking wars (which can be largely avoided if NK doesn’t felt ‘threaten’ or ‘provoked’ by fire drills from neighboring countries+USA), something may be negotiable.

Will the USA basketball player’s visits become plausible breakthroughs like the Pingpong diplomacy in the 1970s? 

It requires wisdom. It requires out of the box approach to genuinely consider ‘all options’ not only on the table as outcried by Tillerson but options beyond the table.

At least, if all the previous and existing options had tried and failed to achieve much, why not consider providing incentives and supports to NK toward some solid economic reforms first?

As Kim Jong Nam correctly pointed out, no economic reform and take off can possibly take place successively in the absence of the West’s solid continual support (think of HOW MUCH CONTINUAL FLOWING OF MONEY, ASSETS, INVESTMENTS, KNOWLEDGE INTO CHINA in the past 4 decades and still allowing China to buy up anything they can from the rest of the world UNBELIEVABLY!). It is exactly why ALL previous experiments of economic reforms failed and didn’t really progressed much.

Perhaps people have forgotten that the real big betting capital for Deng Xiao Ping to fend off strong internal obstructions from the fundamentalistic camp within the party during the first 10 years (1979-89) of his leadership was the backup from the West in SOLID inflows of investments and defrosting many restrictions the West had imposed on China in the past.

Will that be replicated under Trump? Nope! If he stills maintain the same ‘America’ first mentality and his highly rhetoric ways of management on ad hoc basis. Saying something versus doing the thing is a totally different matter. Not just for NK but USA and the West.

#North Korea #political reform #economic reform