Milton Caniff “Terry and the Pirates” (1945) Burma, Pat Ryan, Dragon Lady, Flip Corkin, Normandia (Illustation / Dress-up)
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Now, an unexpected echo to yesterday’s column: Don’t look now, but Democrats may not be toast in the House. Admittedly, it’s a longshot, but a new data point Tuesday evening made it seem more plausible, sending Republicans in Washington into a late-night scramble as they groped for an answer to an urgent question: how had they gotten a New York special election so wrong?
The seat representing New York’s 19th Congressional District came open in May when Rep. Antonio Delgado was appointed lieutenant governor. Barack Obama twice won the Hudson River Valley district before it pivoted to Donald Trump in 2016 and then to Joe Biden in 2020. In other words, it is one of those corners of the country that analysts see as a barometer for the nation as a whole. And with more than 90% of ballots reported, Democratic nominee Pat Ryan was ahead with 52% of the vote—enough to send him to Washington through the balance of Delgado’s term.
Maybe everything isn’t entirely terrible for Democrats, question mark? Both parties nominated mainstream candidates to fill Delgado’s seat, and invested heavily in the race as they road-tested messages in a dress rehearsal for November: abortion rights for Democrats and the economy for Republicans. In a near-perfect swing district, the small-turnout election favored the Democrat, a county executive from the Establishment wing of the party. This comes on the heels of Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejecting an amendment to the Kansas constitution that would have made it easier for the state legislature to further restrict access to abortion.
Just maybe, Republicans got their long-sought policy goal of overturning Roe, but will find it comes with long-term political costs.
Special elections have provided a mixed bag for both parties this year. Earlier this summer, Democrats blew a South Texas special election to succeed Rep. Filemon Vela, but then beat expectations in specials in Nebraska and Minnesota. And they weren’t exactly trying in a rural New York district that stayed in GOP hands last night. Imperfect proxies? Absolutely. But there are limited ways to check in with the national electorate before November. Ryan’s win, coupled with a rebounding economy, declining gas prices, and a second-year second wind for President Joe Biden, and Democrats suddenly have less reason to think that November will be the bloodbath that many—including this column—have been anticipating.
Democrats were hardly puffing up their chest Wednesday morning or claiming they had solved their historical disadvantages; after all, it took 9/11 to help a first-term President George W. Bush defy trends that typically see a new White House losing badly in its first at-bat with voters. But the GOP’s warning memo off last night practically writes itself. So, too, does the Democratic playbook going forward.
Republicans seem to have underestimated the punch that abortion rights could pack this cycle. VoteVets—a veterans’ group aligned with Democrats—spent heavily in NY-19 warning that a Republican-controlled Congress would try to pass a national ban on abortion. Over the last 24 hours, the saliency of that issue took on new urgency among the consultant classes of both parties.
The win will be short-lived for Ryan; New York’s hellscape of redistricting moved the district lines badly. Ryan will be on the ballot again this fall for a full term, this time in a neighboring district. Ryan’s defeated opponent, too, will be back this fall—as the nominee in the same 19th District without Ryan on the ballot.
Still, Democrats who have spent the bulk of this year despondent about dire polling, an anemic White House, and dejected voters now have reasons for tempered optimism about that expected Red Wave. The water coming is still MAGA Red, but it may turn out to be more of a slosh.
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Since the abortion decision, the picture has flipped. In four contests this summer, Democrats consistently have out-performed what Biden did in their districts two years ago.
Abortion isn’t the only issue helping Democrats: Inflation likely peaked in June, and gas prices have dropped all summer. Biden’s job approval has rebounded a bit. Democrats succeeded this month in passing major legislation on climate change and healthcare, which could help mobilize their voters. Biden’s announcement of debt relief for millions of student-loan borrowers could similarly motivate a large Democratic constituency, although it could also rile up Republican opponents.
But abortion rights were the center of the campaign waged by Pat Ryan, the Democratic candidate in Tuesday’s New York special election, and Democratic candidates nationwide likely will copy what he did. Meantime, some Republican candidates have begun scrubbing their websites to remove previous statements supporting abortion bans.
David Lauter at the Los Angeles Times on the changing electoral landscape since the Trump Republican Supreme Court tossed out Roe v. Wade.
Mr. Lauter’s last sentence was funny and revealing. Some Trump Republican candidates are now trying to destroy any record of their extremist anti-abortion views.
This is a good time to save to the Wayback Machine any comments of those candidates from their campaign sites or local media where they reveal their true radical anti-abortion views. And getting Trump Republican candidates to go on the record about their abortion views at town hall meetings is another good tactic. These are some ways you can help defeat the Trumpist vagina police even if you are under 18.
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I was in my painting class the other day and I was chatting with the girl next to me. We were talking about stuff we did when we were younger. She was in the middle of a story but forgot the word she wanted to use, so we moved on. About 5 minutes later she remembered the word: Magnum opus. She then proceed to say that this is how she described her fancam blog of Congressman Pat Ryan to a local newspaper during an interview they did on teenagers in the arts.
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My Top 5 Troma Movies
My Top 5 Troma Movies
#Cinema #FilmReview #MovieReview
Troma Entertainment is a film production company known for its low-budget, independent, and often controversial movies. Here are five of my favourite Troma movies, in no particular order:
The Toxic Avenger (1984)
Directed By – Michael Herz & Lloyd Kaufman
Starring – Mitch Cohen, Mark Torgl, Andree Maranda, Pat Ryan Jr
This movie tells the story of a scrawny, bullied janitor who becomes a…
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Kornacki: NY House Election Evidence Dem Voters Motivated After Roe Decision
MSNBC
Aug 24, 2022
NBC News' Steve Kornacki breaks down the results from Tuesday's New York 19th congressional district special election between Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan. Kornacki explains why the win for Ryan showcases the power of the Dems' abortion rights message after the Supreme Court's decision on Roe v. Wade.
Kornacki does a good job in explaining the increased democratic enthusiasm.
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