When Philip Met Sireena
Chapter One: Fresh Out of the Slammer
Six months he spent in jail. He was finally let out, albeit on parole. This was the start of a new chapter in the life of Philip Trousers.
His accomplices, Hervnick Z. Snerz and Kyler Twotymer, were left to their fates. One was in permanent solitary confinement wearing a straitjacket and the other was reduced to ash on an electric chair. (Can you guess which ones?) Philip’s own evaluation assessed him as “vain”, “quite dim” and “a bigger danger to himself than others”.
During his time in prison, Philip had to learn the hard way that asking for a jar of hair gel or something other than his jumpsuit to wear would earn him five minutes doing a handstand with his pinkies. At this point, he was pretty sure the bones inside them were flatter.
Flanked by guards, the now free Philip Trousers was led to the gates of the prison, where a yellow station wagon was waiting for him. In the driver’s seat was his father, Benjamin Trousers, who looked incredibly displeased.
“Hello, Father”, Philip said as he took the passenger seat.
“Don’t talk, son. I still need time to…” the elder Trousers stopped to level his emotions. “Move on. FYI, your mother is the only one who’s looking forward to seeing you.”
“Then where is she?”
“Home. Setting up a homecoming shindig for you.”
“What’s a shindig?”
Benjamin groans and hits his forehead on the steering wheel.
——
“Philip!”, yelled Phyllis Trousers as he walked into the house.
“Hi, Mum”, he responded softly. Then he was hugged by her.
“I’m glad to have you home, Philly! Mummy missed you so much!” She then kissed the same spot on his cheek twice.
Benjamin stared with a plain expression before proceeding. “Yes, welcome home, Philip. Let’s get moving.”
“Ben! Please!”, his wife snapped at him. She regained her composure and looked at Philip again. “Let’s just try to have a good time for once.”
Phyllis made a quaint dinner for her son. As he ate, his mother maintained an expression of happiness, although she looked somewhat pained. Benjamin, on the other hand, wasn’t hiding how he felt.
Philip looked from side to side, reading his parent’s faces. The only sounds being produced were his cutlery cutting his steak/tapping the porcelain dish.
“Food alright?”, Ben asked suddenly.
“Yes, Father”, Philip replied, shocked by the silence being broken.
Phyllis shoots her husband a look that says ‘act cool’. “Philly…bet you sure missed Mummy’s cooking, didn’t you?”
“Of course.”
“Excellent.” She put on her pained smile again.
“Is something wrong, Mum? At first, you seemed actually happy to have me home. Now you…don’t.”
Her eyes went wide. Odds were that she was thinking: When did my son get so good at reading people?
“I guess you and Father both need time to ‘move on’. I understand. Perhaps I could’ve delayed my parole for another decade.”
“Oh, Philly! Don’t say that! Ben, will you please say something?”
“Uh…welcome home.”
Philip stopped eating. “I’m not hungry.” He stood up and walked away.
——
Later that evening, Philip was back in his old bedroom. He’d hardly changed anything about it since his teenage years. One thing that was even further back that didn’t change was his affinity for footie pajamas. He loved his sky blue jammies. For him, it was the right level of comfort and warmth for him in the night.
Too bad no one else let him be him.
Sometimes he wished he was smarter. He had the looks but no brains; he often imagined he was a chocolate bubble (had nothing beneath the surface). Once he was given his job as spy for the Dookess, he felt like he had purpose. Marilyn Blouse seemed to tolerate him until she left him for dead in that Goo-Lacka-Goo. Twotymer and Snerz only put up with him because they had a common enemy. Speaking of whom, Pam-I-Am and her son Sam and Sylvester, wherever he was, did give him a good challenge. To him, it was kind of fun to tussle on missions. Perhaps if he made some kind of peace offering to them, if he found them again, he could be allowed on their side. It’s not like they’d be quarreling anymore; Ookia was whole once again.
Hold on, he said to himself. Did I just have an idea? Then he remembered it wasn’t his first. He did go to Snerz to ask for help with his revenge plot. But if he’s gonna take the steps to better himself, maybe he should let bygones be bygones. So no more digging up the past, Trousers.
——
It was hard to find work when one has a criminal record. Or when one lacked good social skills.
First, Phillip tried getting work at the home improvement store. He almost turned the paint section into rainbow carnage. Next, he tried a department store. It wasn’t his fault the cash register burst into flames! Any other he tried, those being jobs like janitor at the bank or security guard at the nuclear plant, he was kicked all the way to the curb.
“Ugh. This is useless”, he mutters to himself as he sat at the café. “I’m useless.”
Philip took a cursory glance around and he saw a woman enter the café. As she made her order to the barista, Philip got the confidence to get up and walk over to her.
“Hi”, he greeted.
The woman turned around. “Oh, hi!”
Now he was at a loss for words.
She chuckles. “You okay, sir?”
“Uh—yes! Just—you know—brain fart”, he stammered.
“Oh, Seuss. You too, huh?”
Now he chuckles. “I’m…Philip. Philip Trousers”, he greets, holding his hand out.
“Sireena.”
Now, love at first sight is usually frowned upon, but if it’s any consolation, these two didn’t quite feel love.
Yet.
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Election 2022 Senate Prediction Map November 7, 2022(Final Map)
My analysis is neutral, not biased. Based on
1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis
2) Latest Poll(adjustment)
3) Voter registration statistics Trend + VBM
4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm
(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)
My 2022 Senate Race Final Map on the Twitter:
Governor Races: PAGov Solid D / WIGov Lean R
* My Party ID % By States speculation post:
https://statespoll.com/post/699439301682954240 (October 29, 2022)
Last Updated: 11/7 7:30PM(EST)
I. BattleGround States
1. Pennsylvania
1) My Party ID speculation, PA
with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 46% / IND 7%
2) Latest Poll
(1) Research Co. 11/2-11/6, 450 LV
https://researchco.ca/2022/11/07/2022-midterm-uspoli/
https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Tables_StateRaces_USA_07Nov2022.pdf
Decided Voters: Fetterman 49 / Oz 48
Crosstabs:
DEM Fetterman 94 / Oz 6
REP Fetterman 12 / Oz 83
IND Fetterman 50 / Oz 50
Considering Crosstabs It looks like oversampled REP.
(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,021 LV (1,152 RV)
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-pennsylvania-2/
Fetterman 51 / Oz 45
Corsstabs:
Among White Voters: Fetterman 47 / Oz 48
(FYI 2020 Marist PA Final White Voters: BIden 48 / Trump 50 )
Philly Fetterman: 83 / Oz 10
Philly Suburbs: Fetterman 56 / Oz 42
(3) Fox 10/26-10/30 1,005 RV
Fetterman 47 / Oz 43 (Alredy Voted/certained to vote)
R 45 / D 44 / IND 11 R+1 Samples
White Voters: Fetterman 45 / Oz 44 / Other 4
(2020 Fox PA final D +5 Samples, White Voters: Trump 51 / Biden 45)
https://foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-half-pennsylvanians-say-senate-debate-factor-their-vote
(4) Monmouth 10/27-10/31 608 LV
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_110222/
Fetterman 48 / Oz 44
Samples, Self Party ID: REP 37% / DEM 36% / Indy 27% R +1%
Crosstabs
White Voters: Fetterman 46 / Oz 47
(2020 Monmouth PA Final White voters: Trump 52 / Biden 43)
with Total D +5 samples.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_110220/
White: From R+9(2020) to R+1(2022)
(5) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 620 LV
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html
Fetterman 49% / Oz 44%
Samples: R 36% / D 35% / IND 24% / Other 5% R +1%
Crosstabs
White: Fetterman 46 / Oz 48
Black: Fetterman 86 / Oz 6
Other(Mainly Hispanic/Asian): Fetterman 60 / Oz 36
My Adjusted %: Fetterman 50.0% / Oz 45.1% D +4.9%
Fetterman: R(47)x9+D(46)x92+I(7)x49=49.98
Oz: R(47)x87+D(46)x3+I(7)x41=45.14
3) Pennsylvania Sen Race 2022 Forecast: Lean D
2. Arizona
1) My Party ID speculation, AZ
with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 43% / IND 7%
2) Latest Poll
(1) Data for Progress 11/2-11/6 1,359 LV (1,157 RV)
Masters 50% / Kelly 49%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf
(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,015 LV (1,157 RV)
LV Model: Kelly(D) 50 / Masters® 47
My Adjusted %: Kelly(D) +2.28%
Kelly(D): R(51)x10+D(43)x98+I(6)x53=50.42
Masters®: R(51)x88+D(43)x2+I(6)x40=48.14
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202211031029.pdf
(3) Civiqs 10/29-11/2. 852 LV
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_AZ_banner_book_2022_11_4t7yks.pdf
Masters 49% / Kelly 49%
My Adjusted %: Masters(REP) +2.71%
Masters: R(50)x93+D(43)x1+I(7)x50=50.43
Kelly: R(50)x4+D(43)x99+I(7)x45=47.72
(4) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 604 LV(Pre-victor drops out poll)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html
Kelly 51% / Masters 45%
Samples: R 33% / D 29% / IND 32% / Other 6% R +4%
My Adjusted %: Kelly 50.05% / Masters 48.17%. D +1.88%
Kelly: R(50)x10+D(43)x95+I(7)x60=50.05
Masters: R(50)x88+D(43)x4+I(7)x35=48.17
3) Arizona Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R
3. Georgia
1) My Party ID speculation, GA
with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%,
imo GA Early Voting Favors GOP(ESP race %)
2) Latest Poll
(1) Fox 10/26-10/30, 1,002 RV
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-walker-gains-ground-in-georgia-senate-race
Walker 46% / Warnock 45%
(2) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/27, 604 LV
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html
Warnock 49% / Walker 46%
Samples: R 34% / D 33% / IND 26% / Other 7% R +1%
My Adjusted %: Walker 51.3% / Warnock 46.0%. Walker R +5.3%
Walker: R(51)x92+D(42)x4+I(7)x39=51.33
Warnock: R(51)x5+D(42)x95+I(7)x51=46.02
3) Georgia Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R~Lean R
4. Wisconsin
1) My Party ID speculation, WI
with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%
2) Latest Poll
(1) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22, 1,376 LV
Johnson 51% / Barnes 46%
https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_wi_midterm_tabs.pdf
My Adjusted %: Johnshon +5.29%
Johnson: R(51%)x96%+D(42%)x3%+IND(7%)x45%= 51.95%
Barnes:R(51%)x4%+D(42%)x96%+IND(7%)x50%= 45.86%
3) Wisconsin 2022 Sen Race Forecast: Likely R
5. Nevada
1) My Party ID speculation, NV
with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 42% / IND 11%,
2) Latest Poll
(1) NYT/Siena 10/19-10/24, 885 LV
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html
Laxalt 47% / Masto 47%
Samples: D 32% / R 30% / IND 32% / Other 6% D +2%
My Adjusted %: Laxalt 51.1% / Masto 45.8% R +5.3%
Laxalt: R(47)x94+D(42)x4+I(11)x48=51.14
Masto: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+I(11)x40=45.81
(2) Data for Progress 10/13-10/19, 819 LV
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_nv_midterm_crosstabs.pdf
Laxalt 49 / Masto 48
My Adjusted %: Laxalt R +3.79%
Laxalt: R(47)x93+D(42)x5+I(11)x44=50.65
Masto: R(47)x4+D(42)x94+I(11)x50=46.86
3) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Lean R
imo NV Early voting favors GOP
6. New Hampshire
1) My Party ID speculation, NH
with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 42% / Pure IND 10%
FYI) 2020 Fox voter analysis NH: REP 48% / DEM 45% / IND 7%
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=NH
FYI) 2018 Fox voter analysis NHGov: REP 42% / DEM 42% / IND 15%
2020 NHPres wasn’t a competitive race. and Still It was R +3
This year is a Biden Midterm + NHSen is being a competitive race.
My speculation Party Breakdown in NH R 47 D 42 IND 11
2) Latest Poll
(1) UNH 11/2-11/6, 2,077 LV
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1717&context=survey_center_polls
Hassan 50% / Bolduc 48%
My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +1.84%
Bolduc: R(48)x94+D(42)x1+undeclared party(10)x45=50.04
Hassan: R(48)x4+D(42)x99+undeclared party(10)x47=48.2
(2) Saint Anselm College 10/28-10/29 1,541 LV
https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-gop-momentum
Bolduc 48% / Hassan 47%
My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +4.61%
Bolduc: R(47)x89+D(42)x5+undeclared party(11)x50=49.43
Hassan: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+undeclared party(11)x31=44.82
* undecieded. REP 4% / DEM 1% / Undeclared(Indy) 12% Which favors Bolduc more.
3) New Hampshire Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R
7. Colorado
1) My Party ID speculation, CO
with leaner: DEM 43% / REP 42% / IND 15%
FYI) DeSantis Endorsed O’dea (10/23)
2) Latest Poll
(1) Trafalgar 10/30-11/1. 1,084 LV
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TRF-CO-General-1102-Poll-Report.pdf
Bennet (DEM) 47.6% / O’dea (REP) 46.1%. Bennet(D) +1.5%
(2) Civiqs 10/15-10/18, 600 LV
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf
Poll results: Bennet (DEM) 54% / O’dea (REP) 41%.
Poll samples: D 39 / R 29 / IND 32 D +10% (imo oversampled D)
My adjusted % :Bennet 49 / O’dea 46 D +3%
Bennet: D(43)x96+R(42)x2+IND(15)x46=49.02
O’dea: D(43)x2+R(42)x92+IND(15)x44=46.01
(3) Marist 10/3-10/6. 983 LV
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll-Colorado-NOS-and-Tables_202210071602.pdf
Bennet 49% / O’dea 43%
My Adjusted %: Bennet 49.4% / O’dea 45.9%. Bennet +3.45%
Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x5%+I(15)x43%=48.54
Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x90%+I(15)x40%=45.09%
(4) Data for Progress 10/3-10/6, 1,005 LV
Bennet 50% / O’dea 41%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_co_midterm_toplines.pdf
My Adjusted %: Bennet 49% / O’dea 45.8%. Bennet +3.2%
Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x4%+I(17)x43%=48.98%
Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x89%+I(17)x42%=45.81%
3) Colorado Sen 2022 Forecast: Lean D
8. Ohio
1) My Party ID speculation, NC
with leaner: REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%
FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%
2) Latest Poll
(1) Marist 10/17-10/20, 1,141 LV
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-ohio-2/
Poll samples: REP 37 DEM 34 IND 28
Poll results: Vance(REP) 46% / Ryan(DEM) 45% / Undecided 8%
My Adjusted %: R +8.35%
Vance: R(54)x87+D(41)x6+IND(5)x41= 51.49
Ryan: R(54)x7+D(41)x91+IND(5)x41= 43.14
(2) Cygnal 10/18-10/22, 1,547 LV
https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-momentum-tracking-poll-ohio-statewide-10-23-22/
Poll samples:
Poll results: Vance 46.9 / Ryan 43.3
My Adjusted %: R +6.81%
Vance: R(54)x84+D(41)x5+IND(5)x40= 49.41
Ryan: R(54)x8+D(41)x88+IND(5)x44= 42.6
3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R
9. North Carolina
1) My Party ID speculation, NC
with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%
FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, NC: R 50 D 44 IND 6
And NC Voter regd have shifted as Trend R +1.6% since nov,2020
2) Latest Poll
(1) SurveyUSA 9/28-10/2, 677 LV
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=97eb868a-a6ae-4ed5-b5c1-2e8891119914
Poll samples: R 35% D 35% IND&Other 28%
Poll results: Budd(REP) 43% / Beasley(DEM) 42%
Adjusted: Budd(REP) 48.4% / Beasley 40.74%. R +7.66%
Budd: REP(50%)x87+DEM(42%)x5%+IND(8%)x35%= 48.4%
Beasley: REP(50%)x4%+DEM(42%)x85%+IND(8%)x38%= 40.74%
(2) Civiqs, 9/17-9/20, 586 LV
https://t.co/cwPoQfGcyG
Poll samples: R 36.8% D 36.1% IND&Other 27.1%
Poll results: Beasley(DEM) 49% / Budd(REP) 48%
Adjusted: Budd(REP) 52.0% / Beasley 45.1% R +6.9%
Budd: REP(50%)x94+DEM(42%)x3%+IND(8%)x47%= 52.02%
Beasley: REP(50%)x1%+DEM(42%)x97%+IND(8%)x48%= 45.08%
3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R
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